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You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 / COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Tuesday / Wednesday, Dec. 28-29

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Tuesday / Wednesday, Dec. 28-29

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I am on record as an extreme skeptic of the state of Chinese statistics – https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/21/nobody-knows-anything-about-china/ – and it is very likely that the numbers around the Wuhan outbreak were seriously underreported. But the idea that China has been hiding covid all this time simply doesn’t add up.

For starters, testing is massive in China. So is social media – censored social media, but not completely controllable. People would be alarmed and talking about it if they were testing positive. We’re not seeing any of that…

the government is also not *behaving* in any way that matches this theory. instead, we’re seeing *massive* reactions to even very small numbers of covid cases, and huge dragnets.

Chinese cities and businesses are paying severe costs as a result of these lockdowns, particularly around travel and ports, at a time when the economy is already down on one knee. This is not the way the govt acts unless it thinks there’s a purpose.

there are two explanations for the very low number of omicron cases that require far less unnecessary supposition than ‘China really has rampant covid.’ the first is that China is extremely sealed off from the rest of the world!

other east and southeast Asian countries are only just seeing their first Omicron cases, it has not been a Big Thing there yet.

the second is that Omicron is, in fact, a serious challenge to the current quarantine system, the Chinese public is at least somewhat aware of this, and therefore the govt is underreporting omicron cases to avoid alarm/mistrust.

I’m not ruling out very small domestic pockets in remote areas that get covered up or reclassified as import cases. But the idea of secret covid death on the scale of the United States is simply not plausible.

The Chinese authorities are not kidding around:

… The Omicron cluster identified in the northeastern province of Kalasin on Christmas eve has been linked to a couple who had travelled from Belgium and visited bars, concerts and markets.

The ensuing cluster had infected hundreds, with cases spreading to 11 other provinces, said senior health official Opas Karnkawinpong, citing how one of the bars linked to the cluster had been packed and did not have good ventilation…

Up to now, Thailand has reported 740 cases of the highly transmissible Omicron variant, including 251 in people who had come into contact with foreign arrivals, said Opas.

After coronavirus infections peaked in August above 20,000, daily case numbers have fallen to around 2,500 in the past week.

But the health ministry’s planning scenario indicated that by March daily infections could hit 30,000, with more than 160 deaths, without a faster rollout of measures like vaccinations and testing, as well as greater social distancing…

After detecting the first local Omicron infection last week, Thai authorities reinstated mandatory quarantine for foreign arrivals and suspended a “Test & Go” programme that allowed vaccinated travellers to avoid quarantine.

… Earlier this year, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) released results of a large survey across 15 African countries in which 79% of respondents said they would get vaccinated against Covid-19, with even greater rates of acceptance among people living in villages. In August, another 12-country study found acceptance rates ranging from 67% to 89% in Burkina Faso, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, and Uganda.

For comparison, the same 12-country study found that only 65% of Americans planned to get vaccinated, a number consistent with current vaccination coverage levels…

…[O]utsiders have taken reports of declined vaccine shipments in some African countries — likely the result of numerous factors, including poorly coordinated donations and the difficulty of moving doses to rural areas — as evidence of widespread distrust across the continent, overlooking the heterogeneity of 54 countries, more one billion people, and distinct local health, cultural, and political contexts that strongly influence vaccine uptake.

Hesitancy is a red herring when it comes to immunization in Africa. Multiple challenges abound to reach World Health Organization’s goal of vaccinating 70% of the world’s population by mid-2022. In addition to poorly coordinated donations, these include receipt of expiring doses, receipt of large numbers of different types of vaccines with unique storage and transport requirements, over-centralized vaccine production, profiteering in the pandemic, and more…

Instead of exaggerating, distorting, and oversimplifying claims of Covid-19 vaccine hesitancy in African countries, commentators would better serve the urgent need for global Covid-19 control by amplifying the actual urgent asks from health experts to the rest of the world: donate stockpiled doses, support waivers of intellectual property, share manufacturing know-how, support regional vaccine production, and strengthen local health systems…

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Reader Interactions

100Comments

  2. 2.

    NotMax

    FYI.

    Remaining performances of “The Nutcracker” ballet have been canceled due to positive tests for coronavirus, the New York City Ballet announced Tuesday. Source

    In paradise, grim trendings as the year limps to a finale.

    The [Hawaii] state Department of Health continues to report a spike in COVID-19 cases, with a large portion on Oʻahu, but growing cases also being reported on the neighbor islands. The DOH is reporting a COVID-19 count of 824 new cases today, down from the record high reported on Sunday, Dec. 26, of 2,205 cases.

    The latest data represents a total of 14,514 “active” cases statewide over two weeks, surpassing the Delta peak of 11,500. Maui County’s seven day average of cases peaked at 57.6 per 100,000 on Aug. 25. This number has been on a steady decline since the beginning of September, but began increasing with the arrival of the Omicron variant in the islands. Todayʻs seven day average on Maui is close to the previous peak, with 55.6 cases per 100,000. Source/blockquote>

  3. 3.

    NeenerNeener

    Monroe County, NY:

    This covers 12/26 to 12/28, some of these days have already been reported:

    There were 525 new laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported.
    There were 544 new positive home tests reported.

  4. 4.

    Amir Khalid

    Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reports 3,683 new Covid-19 cases today in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 2,750,516 cases. It also reports 23 deaths as of midnight, for an adjusted cumulative total of 31,392 deaths – 1.14% of the cumulative reported total, 1.16% of resolved cases.

    Based on cases reported yesterday, Malaysia’s nationwide Rt is at 0.93.

    216 confirmed cases are in ICU, 75 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 4,322 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 2,677,406 patients recovered – 97.3% of the cumulative reported total.

    Six new clusters were reported today, for a cumulative total of 6,120 clusters. 227 clusters are currently active; 5,893 clusters are now inactive.

    3,444 new cases today are local infections. 239 new cases today are imported.

    The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 153,228 doses of vaccine on 28th December: 3,396 first doses, 4,653 second doses, and 145,179 booster doses. As of midnight, the cumulative total is 57,112,1442 doses administered: 25,985,559 first doses, 25,596,683 second doses, and 5,727,151 booster doses. 79.6% of the population have received their first dose, 78.4% their second dose, and 17.5% their booster dose.

  6. 6.

    Percysowner

    I had to pick up a prescription yesterday. There was a BIG sign by the pharmacy “NO, we don’t have COVID tests. NO we don’t know where you can get one. NO we don’t know when we are getting more.”
    I went to pick up my dog from my kids house and my daughter is telling her husband and my granddaughter “put on your mask”. One of the relatives they saw on Christmas Eve tested positive*. Thank God everyone in the family is vaccinated and boosted, except for the under 5 crowd. Unfortunately, there is a fair sized under 5 crowd, my granddaughter included. Even worse, the less than 6 month old child of the guy who tested positive was premature and has some lung issues. I’m in chemo.
    *It is a strange world where we immediately know what people “tested positive” for and it’s not an STD. Interesting Times, indeed.​​​​

  7. 7.

    Soprano2

    I’m glad to see CDC lowered that percentage re: omicron. I thought that was a ridiculous percentage that couldn’t possibly be right when it was released, and I was correct. Why do they insist on wrecking their credibility like that?

  8. 8.

    ThresherK

    I have no info to add. Well, one thing…I have to travel 100 miles to get to a Red county from my home. (ETA I know many people are doing the right thing and yet are endangered by fools because of where they live. I hate to say it repeatedly, but this is On the Beach all over again.)

    Well…another: My wife will have a compromised immune system for the rest of her life, owing to a non-Covid chronic condition. The only relief is that she isn’t very ambulatory over the last year, and that’s ongoing, so she wouldn’t be visiting many places anyway.

    Thanks, Republicans!

  10. 10.

    debbie

    “Over-engineered”? Jesus.

    15,403 new cases yesterday in Ohio. It’s being reported that 95% of the people in ICU are unvaccinated.

  12. 12.

    Cermet

    @Soprano2: Did you see there ridiculous number of vaccinated for the State of WV over the last few weeks? Look at the NYT map and see how the number of vaccinated went from nearly leading the country back down to lower tier of the States – that was all CDC, not WV. WV corrected the number.

  13. 13.

    New Deal democrat

    One week ago I wrote of how unreliable the CDC’s estimate of Omicron cases was, and that I much preferred Trevor Bedford’s trend data, which estimated (if I recall correctly) about 30% of cases. Well, here we are:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/davidalim/status/1475844235991552002

    “CDC’s estimate for the prevalence of Omicron last week dropped significantly from 73.2% w/ a 95% prediction interval of 34-94.9% down to 22.5% w/ a 95% prediction interval of 15.4-31.5%.
    “12/25 estimate is 58.6% with a 95% prediction interval of 41.5-74%.”

    Note that the CDC’s estimate above is based on a four week sample of data through December 4. By contrast, Trevor Bedford’s updated trend projections, based on actual numbers through December 15, indicate that Omicron became a majority of cases by approximately December 15, and suggest that about 200,000 current cases are Omicron, and only about 25,000 are Delta.

    https://github.com/blab/rt-from-frequency-dynamics/tree/master/results/omicron-countries

    The further news from Bedford’s international data is that Omicron is not just co-circulating with Delta, but is replacing it almost everywhere. Since there is increasing evidence that Omicron is indeed less lethal, this is good news.

    More generally, almost across the board, the sources I read are flaying the CDC for its honor-system reduction of quarantine from 10 days to 5 at the behest of business executives. One of the continuing lessons of this pandemic is just how badly compromised the CDC is. Here’s Eric Topol:
    https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-very-bad-day-at-the-cdc

    “Remember the Covid-19 Tracking Project posted [Covid] data for the United States each day because the CDC was incapable, but stopped doing so in March 2021 because it was given reassurance that CDC would step up. They have never done so, particularly when it comes to divvying up hospitalizations by vaccination status (including type, timing, number of doses), variant, and patient characteristics (such as age, co-existing conditions, immunocompromised). Close tracking of breakthrough hospitalizations and deaths was promised by CDC in May 2021, but they haven’t made good on that. Instead, they have served up once a month snapshots with minimal data, such as this most recent posting, for a limited number of US jurisdictions. As previously reviewed, HHS Secretary Becerra could mandate collection of these data for all US states, but has chosen not to.”

    Turning to US data, nationwide cases made a new all-time high, surpassing last winter’s peak. Cases in the earliest States hit by Omicron – NY, NJ, and RI – are growing, but at a slower pace, indicating they may be peaking. Hi and PR may already have peaked. The US as a whole May peak in about 2 weeks with an average of 400,000 or more cases a day.

    About 62% of the US population is fully vaxxed. The US hit 50% fully vaxxed at the end of July. In other words only about 2.5% of the US population has been getting vaccinated every month since then. Meanwhile since July 1, about 5% of the population has gotten a *confirmed* infection. A crude back of the envelope guess is that, since roughly 50% of cases are asymptomatic, the true number is more like 10%  – the vast majority of which are unvaccinated. Total confirmed US cases are about 16.5%, meaning about 1/3rd of all people is probably the truer number.

    The bottom line is that something like 40% of all unvaccinated have probably been infected, bringing the combined total of vaccinated plus previously infected to about 80% of the total US population. That leaves only 20% with no resistance of any sort to the disease. By the end of the Omicron wave, this figure could be closer to 90%.

    In other words, we are getting substantially closer to the point where COVID simply becomes endemic, with fewer and fewer fatal outcomes. That isn’t the desired outcome, but it is likely the best realistic alternative.

  14. 14.

    debbie

    @Baud:

    The expectation that experts should know 100% on Day 1 is what will do us in.

    Here, as of 12/18, almost 21% of cases were Omicron. As of 12/4, it was at zero. Would that still not be a significant increase over just 14 days?

    Personally, I think we’re headed in the wrong direction, and I don’t understand why restrictions are being eased before we get a better understanding of this variant.

  15. 15.

    WereBear

    @ThresherK: I am sorry to hear about your wife’s health. Likewise, Mr WereBear’s chronic condition puts him at extra risk.

    He has a booster appointment on the same day Frigidaire moved our fridge inspection appointment (supposed to be under warranty but they are squirmy about it) where now it’s two weeks without a fridge, during the holiday season, and they don’t give a rat’s behind.

    They already have the landlord’s money. I’m worthy of even less consideration.

    I wouldn’t LET corporations run the CDC. That’s what Trump tried, no doubt.

  17. 17.

    Baud

    It occurs to me that the Medicare For All folks could lower the cost of their program by writing off all the Republicans who would rather die than use it.

  18. 18.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    As I noted downstairs, my employer(the Home of the Orange Apron) has mandated either proof of vaccination or will require testing every 7 days for those who remain unvaccinated starting next week.

  21. 21.

    satby

    @Baud: They might be Republican (very) but they can understand increased costs and liability as well as the rest of us sane folk.

    Edit: WereBear beat me to it.

  24. 24.

    YY_Sima Qian

    On 12/28 China reported 152 new domestic confirmed (none previously asymptomatic) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases.

    Shaanxi Province reported 151 new domestic confirmed cases (all mild). There are currently 982 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.

    • Xi’an reported 151 new domestic confirmed cases (all mild).  100 are traced close contacts already under home or centralized quarantine & 51 from mass screening. There currently are 962 active confirmed cases in the city. 1 university dormitory is currently at High Risk. 150 sites are currently Medium Risk.
    • Yan’an did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 9 active domestic confirmed cases in the city. 2 residential buildings, 1 village & 1 company have been elevated to Medium Risk.
    • Xianyang did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 10 active domestic confirmed case in the city (1 case was re-assigned to Xi’an).
    • Weinan did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city.

    At Yuncheng in Shanxi Province there currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case remaining, a person arrived from Xi’an in Shaanxi.

    Guangdong Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 29 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.

    • Dongguan did not report any new domestic confirmed cases,. There currently are 26 active domestic confirmed cases, a secondary cluster spilled over from Xi’an in Shaanxi. 4 residential compounds & 2 residential buildings have been re-designated to Low Risk. 1 residential building unit & 3 residential buildings remain at Medium Risk.
    • At Guangzhou there currently are 3 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases, an airport worker & a family cluster seeded by an imported positive case.

    Guangxi “Autonomous” Region did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 19 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.

    • Fangchenggang did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 19 active domestic confirmed cases in the city, a cluster seeded by a smuggling operation. A Medium Risk village is currently at High Risk. 1 village is currently at Medium Risk.
    • At Chongzuo there currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case, infected by an imported positive case that had bypassed border control)

    At Hulun Buir in Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region 21 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 90 active domestic confirmed cases remaining (87 at Manzhouli & 3 at New Barag Right Banner).

    At Heilongjiang Province 4 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases (at Heihe) remaining.

    At Shanghai Municipality there currently are 4 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining. 1 residential compound is currently at Medium Risk. 

    Jiangsu Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.

    • Nanjing reported 1 new domestic confirmed case, a Yangtze River boat pilot found via regular screening, has been living isolated from the community while on rotation.
    • Wuxi reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case (at Jiangyin) a traced close contact of the domestic asymptomatic case reported by Nanjing, also a Yangtze River boat pilot, who also has been living isolated from the community while on rotation. There currently are 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.

    Zhejiang Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 477 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.

    • At Ningbo there currently are 72 active domestic confirmed cases remaining.
    • At Hangzhou there currently are 28 active domestic confirmed cases remaining.
    • At Shaoxing there currently are 377 active domestic confirmed cases in the city. 2 sub-districts & 3 villages remain at Medium Risk.

    At Tianjin Municipality there currently is 1 active confirmed case (moderate) in the city, part of the transmission chain from Shaoxing in Zhenjiang.

    At Suzhou in Anhui Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city, part of the transmission chain from Zhejiang. 1 village is currently at Medium Risk.

    At Chengdu in Sichuan Province there currently are 2 active domestic confirmed cases in the city, a quarantine hotel worker & an airport logistics worker.

    At Xiamen in Fujian Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case remaining, a quarantine hotel worker.

    At Dalian in Liaoning Province 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case remaining.

    At Rizhao in Shandong Province there currently are 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.

    At Chongqing Municipality there currently are 2 active domestic confirmed cases remaining.

    At Henan Province 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 21 active domestic confirmed (19 at Zhengzhou & 2 at Zhoukou) & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases (both at Zhoukou).

    Yunnan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 1 domestic confirmed recovered. There currently are 27 active domestic confirmed & 14 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.

    • At Kunming there currently 5 active domestic confirmed cases in the city, a family cluster of 4 connected to outbreak elsewhere in China & the student who had traveled to Sipsongpanna Prefecture. 1 residential compound is currently at Medium Risk.
    • At Sipsongpanna Prefecture there currently are 2 domestic asymptomatic cases (at Jinghong), both tourists from Hunan Province. Jinghong has completed the 1st round of mass screening of all residents in the urban area, 414,931 individuals in all, all negative. Local authorities report that the 2 domestic asymptomatic cases there, the student at Kunming & the domestic asymptomatic case at Tongren in Guizhou all had crossed paths w/ an imported positive case while at Jinghong, a person who returned to China illegally (as in bypassing border control & quarantine).
    • At Dehong Prefecture 1 domestic confirmed recovered. There currently are 22 active domestic confirmed & 12 active domestic asymptomatic cases at the prefecture.

    Tongren in Guizhou Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case in the city, a person who returned from Jinghong, Sipsongpanna Prefecture in Yunnan.

    Imported Cases    

    On 12/28, China reported 45 new imported confirmed cases (7 previously asymptomatic), 14 imported asymptomatic cases, 2 imported suspect cases:

    • Shanghai Municipality – 11 confirmed cases, 7 Chinese nationals returning from the US, 2 from Canada & 1 each from Chile (via Paris CdG) & Indonesia; 2 suspect cases, no information released
    • Tianjin Municipality – 7 confirmed & 2 asymptomatic cases, no information released, yet
    • Guangxi “Autonomous” Region (location not specified) – 6 confirmed & 1 asymptomatic cases, no information released
    • Chengdu in Sichuan Province – 6 confirmed cases (all previously asymptomatic), 3 Chinese nationals returning Algeria, 2 from Cambodia & 1 from Egypt; 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from Cambodia
    • Hangzhou in Zhejiang Province – 4 confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic), 1 each coming from Egypt, Peru, Spain & Uganda
    • Guangzhou in Guangdong Province – 2 confirmed cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from Costa Rica & Kazakhstan (both via Amsterdam Schiphol); 3 asymptomatic cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from Ethiopia, Iran & Serbia (via Tehran)
    • Qingyuan in Guangdong Province – 2 confirmed cases, both coming from Canada; 1 asymptomatic cases, coming from Mongolia; all off flights that landed at Guangzhou 
    • Yunnan Province (location not specified) – 3 confirmed cases, 2 Chinese nationals returning from Laos & 1 from Myanmar; 2 asymptomatic cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from Laos & Myanmar; all via land border crossings
    • Kunming in Yunnan Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from Cambodia
    • Xiamen in Fujian Province – 2 confirmed cases, no information released
    • Qingdao in Shandong Province – 1 confirmed case, a Chinese national returning from South Korea
    • Jinan in Shandong Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from the UAE
    • Yantai in Shandong Province – 1 asymptomatic case, aa Chinese national returning from South Korea
    • Xi’an in Shaanxi Province – 1 confirmed case, a Chinese national returning from Canada, off a flight diverted from Beijing
    • Shenyang in Liaoning Province – 1 asymptomatic case, no information released

    Overall in China, 57 confirmed cases recovered (25 imported), 8 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (all imported) & 7 were reclassified as confirmed cases (all imported), & 2,771 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 2,415 active confirmed cases in the country (751 imported), 14 in serious condition (3 imported), 496 active asymptomatic cases (466 imported), 3 suspect cases (all imported). 51,593 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.

    As of 12/28, 2,795.716M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 13.847M doses in the past 24 hrs.

    On 12/29, Hong Kong has yet to report any update.

  25. 25.

    Kay

    I talk to people who won’t or haven’t gotten vaccinated a lot – 60% of the people where I live- and there’s really two groups. There’s the anti-vaxx nuts, mostly also Trumpists, and then a much larger group of people who could generally be described as “fatalists”. They don’t do anything of any kind to prevent poor health or disease and they also don’t get vaccinated. They convince themselves that preventable illness or disease is not preventable at all in any measurable or rational way. It’s just random. So people have heart attacks at the gym, or people QUIT drinking and then die at 50, or people are not overweight but have high blood pressure anyway, that kind of thinking. 

    We maybe shouldn’t be surprised they won’t do anything to prevent covid- they don’t or won’t do anything to prevent anything. They’re not really on board with “prevent”. Things just happen to them and when the things happen they do something about it, not before.

  26. 26.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @Kay: And then there is the subset who, “things just happen to them and when the things happen they do nothing but complain about it.”

  27. 27.

    germy

    @Kay:

    I used to see that sort of fatalist logic from cigarette smokers.  “Everyone dies eventually, I might as well enjoy myself”  etc.

    They seemed to think a human life was like a light switch.  It’s on, and then it suddenly switches off.

    They never took into account spending their final years gasping for breath or enduring lung surgery.

    I remember what Robert Benchley said, after a friend warned him that a drink he was enjoying was “slow poison” :

    “Well, who’s in a hurry?”

    But Benchley spent the last year of his life suffering from chronic nosebleeds and other ailments from a rotting liver.  Died at 56.

  29. 29.

    Kay

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    Yesterday “I know a guy who got the booster and had a heart attack“. Then they just wait for my response- which isn’t coming :)

    I don’t bring this up anymore- I gave up months ago- they do.

    I think we’ve been misled a little by the coverage of athletes and other health-aware people or militant, angry people (police, etc) who refuse vaccinations. Most of the people not getting vaccinated aren’t “health aware” in any real way and they behave exactly as one would expect with this new health advice – they ignore it. It’s passive.

  30. 30.

    Steve in the ATL

    Repeat question from last night:

    I know a young person who is vaccinated and boosted but now has symptomatic COVID but is visiting Chicago, which is several states from home,  and has very little money.  She can’t get on her flight home until she has quarantined.  What do people do in the situation? Where do they stay?  How do they eat?

  33. 33.

    Ken

    @debbie: “Over-engineered”? Jesus.

    Yeah, my first thought was “This is not someone who takes their own blood pressure, glucose level, or oxygen levels”.

    Then I revised that to “Or has ever used an alarm clock, wireless microphone, or remote control” — since apparently two batteries and an indicator light are beyond his comprehension.

  34. 34.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @Baud: He’s also never interacted with anyone from China. Part of the reason for China’s low numbers is the Chines themselves take the pandemic very seriously and if anything are overly precautions about it.

    Typical Conservative, just assumes everyone cheats because rules are just to be been to subordinates.

  35. 35.

    Kay

    @germy:

    I think that’s where you could find some compassion for them because I would bet (and in my case many times I know) that this approach is consistent in the rest of their affairs, so they don’t do anything to prevent any other minor or major catastrophes – it’s just one run of bad luck after another.

    But I don’t know that Joe Biden is going to change them. Probably a lot of people plead with them to do or not do things, replace the bald tires, stop for gas, open that summons from the tax authority instead of pitching it on a pile of “papers”. They’re not “anti-vaxx”. They’re anti-prevent.

  37. 37.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    @Kay: A woman in my writer group is writing a memoir and the life she’s describing is exactly like that. Her neighbors’ lives are in chaos. Anyone looking at them can see that whatever they’re doing (or not doing) is not going to end well. But from inside that life, it must feel overwhelming.

  38. 38.

    Kay

    @Baud:

    I sometimes get caught up in this “hopeful” scenario, where I think if I just say the right thing they will be persuaded – it’s competitive. And this has been true for me! Hearing The One Right Thing. I hate going to the doctor so I avoided it but my doctor told me “not going to the doctor as a belief is just the flip side of hypochondria- find a middle” and that’s true so I was persuaded and stopped being such a dope about it. A convert!

  42. 42.

    Another Scott

    @Steve in the ATL: My feeling is that they are in a sink or swim situation.  Is delaying the trip an option?

    Large YMCAs have cheap rooms to rent, or used to.  Food delivery should be an option, but it often isn’t cheap.

    Good luck to them!

    Cheers,

    Scott.

  43. 43.

    Soprano2

    @Baud: Sure, but they’ve done it several times now, and every time they do that (this one was completely unnecessary, I was sure that percentage of 73% was wrong and I’m not a scientist) it makes it easier for people to disregard everything they say. I heard that this morning on a “Morning Edition” segment where a flight attendant cited that mistake as a reason to also disregard their new recommendations that people with asymptomatic Covid only have to isolate for 5 days! When TFG was in office we know part of the problem was meddling from the administration; what accounts for these fuckups now?

  44. 44.

    Soprano2

    @Cermet: Yep, here’s another example. It seems to me these are unforced errors that are unnecessary. What it tells me is that CDC is a lot more degraded than we thought from the TFG years.

  46. 46.

    Baud

    @Soprano2:

    I’m not ever going to judge an agency based on what antivaxxers cling to. They’ll cling to anything.

    I don’t know what accounts for the errors, but I’m also not going to play internet expert on how to manage a flood of constantly changing information in a pandemic.

  47. 47.

    JMG

    At least here in Massachusetts, hunkering down in January has been customary behavior for centuries. About all the comfort I take in the situation today.

  48. 48.

    Soprano2

    @New Deal democrat: More generally, almost across the board, the sources I read are flaying the CDC for its honor-system reduction of quarantine from 10 days to 5 at the behest of business executives.

    But this has always been about the “honor system”, and it’s not just about the business community. How many people refuse to test because they know if they’re positive it’s automatically missing 10 days of work – 10 days they often won’t be paid for? The recommendation specifically says 5 days “if asymptomatic”. How many with Covid who are asymptomatic even know they have it? As with most diseases, the most contagious time is at the beginning, when most people don’t even know they are sick! Here’s what they say on the CDC Web site:

    Given what we currently know about COVID-19 and the Omicron variant, CDC is shortening the recommended time for isolation from 10 days for people with COVID-19 to 5 days, if asymptomatic, followed by 5 days of wearing a mask when around others. The change is motivated by science demonstrating that the majority of SARS-CoV-2 transmission occurs early in the course of illness, generally in the 1-2 days prior to onset of symptoms and the 2-3 days after. Therefore, people who test positive should isolate for 5 days and, if asymptomatic at that time, they may leave isolation if they can continue to mask for 5 days to minimize the risk of infecting others.

    This seems reasonable to me, although I would like to see them get a negative test at the end of the 5 days. The long quarantine period has made people resistant to testing. We can’t say “follow the science” and then holler when we don’t like what they do in response to this. People who already weren’t doing the right thing won’t change their behavior, but this might make more people less reluctant to test. ETA -it might make more companies willing to do what Home Depot has done, too, if they know it won’t mean half of their workforce has to be off work for 10 days even if they aren’t contagious.

  49. 49.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Kay:  Yesterday “I know a guy who got the booster and had a heart attack“. Then they just wait for my response- which isn’t coming :)

    “And my tetanus booster didn’t keep me from breaking my arm when I fell down a flight of stairs” would probably be good.

  51. 51.

    Soprano2

    @debbie:The expectation that experts should know 100% on Day 1 is what will do us in.

    I don’t expect this. What I DO expect them to do is look at a ridiculous number like 73% after only a couple of weeks and question it. Like I and NDD said, we knew that 73% number was ridiculous and probably wrong, and yet CDC put it out there for everyone to quote anyway! How did someone not question that? It was an own goal on the part of CDC, and it was unnecessary.

  52. 52.

    Soprano2

    @Kay: Yep, I hear that too, plus the “vaccinated people get it too, so what’s the point of being vaccinated anyway?”. I talked to one guy here who I was surprised to see still wearing a mask – he’s smart, and not susceptible to all the disinformation. He told me he just didn’t trust it yet, and thought it hadn’t been tested enough before they put it out there. When I pointed out that we’ve done a year-long test of 200 million Americans and so far no bad effects, he said yes he’s closer to feeling comfortable getting it. I’ve also seen a couple of people here going without masks in the past month who I know couldn’t do that without proving that they are now vaccinated, so that is a little encouraging. Pressure works – I think they got tired of having to wear a face mask here every day.

  53. 53.

    Soprano2

    @Baud:I’m not ever going to judge an agency based on what antivaxxers cling to.

    But it’s not just about antivaxxers – it’s about people who probably used to listen to the CDC who now don’t because of too many instances of things like this. I just think the 73% mistake was easy to spot and preventable, that’s all. I know the situation changes rapidly, which is even more reason to be somewhat cautious so you aren’t having to constantly walk things back.

  54. 54.

    MomSense

    @New Deal democrat:

    I’m so pissed at the people saying corporate interests.  We are already experiencing shortages of health care workers.  If they have to be out for 10 days then short staffing will worsen and mortality rates will increase.  I’d also like to keep water and sanitary services, fire departments, ambulance services operating.
    If we are team science, and team experts and tell people to trust the CDC then we have to continue when we disagree.  I’m not a public health expert so my “research” is not better than the CDC.

  55. 55.

    Another Scott

    @Soprano2: CDC has had problems, as we know.  But if you go to the site and read the original postings, they’ve also been pretty transparent about their actual findings and recommendations.  (Recommendations that can be argued about, but aren’t given in bad faith – especially not under Biden.)
    They make it clear that the Nowcast is a model. There are big error bars in the early days of exponential growth. And the regional distribution is very lumpy, making extrapolations even more difficult.

    CDC Nowcast

    The Twitterization of important news strips all nuance.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  56. 56.

    Matt McIrvin

    I still think the surge in northern New England is mostly Delta, not Omicron. It doesn’t seem at all like the situation in NYC, where cases are going vertical in this utterly unprecedented way but people aren’t getting as sick. It’s more on the scale of the previous surges, but with people getting quite sick indeed. More death than we see in the places where it’s clearly Omicron. I think that’s Delta chewing through the remaining unvaccinated. People in southern New Hampshire really don’t seem like they’re taking this very seriously at all, based on… I’ll just call it direct observation. God knows what the real Omicron surge is going to look like over there.

    I don’t know what is behind the change in CDC recommendations but it sure seems like people across the political spectrum have become primed to see a sinister, conspiratorial motive behind every change in messaging.

    I’m starting to see a bit of an uptick on social media of some people who are the opposite of denialists, people afraid that Omicron is really the doomsday variant, the scientists are lying to us and it’s going to kill us all. Freely admitting that they don’t have any evidence but they just have a gut feeling of something being “off”. This situation gets into your head and plays tricks with it. People start jumping at shadows.

  58. 58.

    Soprano2

    @Another Scott: The Twitterization of important news strips all nuance.

    Yes, and they should realize that and behave accordingly. That 73% figure is all over everywhere with “CDC says”, and it was a huge mistake! That even I knew it was probably wrong says something.

  60. 60.

    Another Scott

    @Soprano2: It wasn’t “wrong”, it was an early estimate.  And presented as such.  Estimates get better (smaller 95% confidence intervals) with more data – that’s the way science works.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  61. 61.

    Soprano2

    @Another Scott: It was early and WRONG, way way wrong. It was panic-inducing wrong, it was so wrong. From NDD’s post:

    “CDC’s estimate for the prevalence of Omicron last week dropped significantly from 73.2% w/ a 95% prediction interval of 34-94.9% down to 22.5% w/ a 95% prediction interval of 15.4-31.5%.
    “12/25 estimate is 58.6% with a 95% prediction interval of 41.5-74%.”

    How is going from 73% to 22.5% not head-spinningly wrong?

  62. 62.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Soprano2:

    How is going from 73% to 22.5% not head-spinningly wrong?

    It’s a “nowcast” extrapolated from a model under conditions of explosive exponential growth. In that situation, it could just mean they were a week off in time–73% this week instead of 73% next week.

  63. 63.

    Another Scott

    @Soprano2: re the 10 days vs 5 days + masking…

    I don’t think they are contradictory. The majority of transmission pre-omicron & pre-vax happened before day5. So transmission risk after d5 is likely v very low now, imo ~5-10% – it’s about the balance between # of transmission events prevented vs making isolation manageable. https://t.co/sQWa5Qgww4 pic.twitter.com/wLTyLgMPrQ

    — Muge Cevik (@mugecevik) December 29, 2021

    Another problem, of course, is that health care workers are the ones most likely to be infected, and having them out longer than necessary will make everything worse.

    (via CherylRofer)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  64. 64.

    New Deal democrat

    @Soprano2:

    “ I would like to see them get a negative test at the end of the 5 days.”

    And @MomSense: 
     
    This is the main objection I am seeing. See, e.g., here:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1475671865288847361
    “I like the idea of allowing people to exit isolation earlier than after ten days, but doing so without one or more negative tests seems odd.
    “In general, at least for the OG strain, evidence suggested a broad range of infectious periods, with a non-trivial fraction going well beyond five days….
    “Meanwhile here’s Fauci with pretty much the definition of penny-wise and pound-foolish, saying we need to send people back after 5 days because we can’t afford to have people off of work.”

    And
    https://mobile.twitter.com/DataDrivenMD/status/1476066198173278218
    “CDC Director admits that the agency screwed up so bad that the only way to fix the problem is to sacrifice the health and well-being of working families. Cool. Cool.”
    Citing:
    “CDC guidance halving isolation/quarantine times was “based on the anticipation of a large # of cases might impact societal function,” Rochelle Walensky told us. Some experts worry it could contribute to transmission.”

    And
    https://mobile.twitter.com/DelthiaRicks/status/1475759923371941896
    “The CDC’s new guidance, which slashed the isolation period from 10 days to 5 for asymptomatic people, should also require a negative test at the end of isolation. It doesn’t and that’s a major flaw during a surge that is already worsening exponentially.”

    And
    https://mobile.twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1475852630773489670
    “If you test positive for SARS-CoV-2, then I strongly recommend isolating for longer than 5 days unless you take 2 negative rapid tests 24 hrs apart. Consider doing this for your families, your communities. Can’t believe I’m saying this but on this one, ignore the CDC.
    “Oh and while you’re telling
    @cdcgov
    what you think about making public health policies that suit corporations, also tell
    @Delta
    what you think about their CEO lobbying hard for policies that put their workforce and passengers at risk.”

    Not cranks. Not pundits. All health experts, all approvingly cited previously in these posts and threads.

  65. 65.

    New Deal democrat

    @Soprano2:

    Here is Eric Topol on the subject:
    https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-very-bad-day-at-the-cdc
    “There was also the major gaffe about genomic sequencing surveillance. Here are the data from last week, and the corrected data this week, announced today by CDC. The point estimate for Omicron changed for the week ending December 18th from 73% to 22.5%, which is remarkable. We were led to believe that the country was well in the midst of the Omicron wave when, in fact, we were and are still experiencing a large number of Delta infections. As of December 25th, the point estimate is 59% with 95% confidence intervals lower 42%, upper 74%, indicating there is a lot of wobble, a relatively limited number of sequencing samples to draw upon, no less a reduction in confidence for the CDC itself.”

    I can’t find the link right now, but one of the experts pointed out that the CDC estimate caused a number of hospitals to stop using treatments effective against Delta but not Omicron. So, some nasty real world consequences.

  66. 66.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Soprano2:

    We can’t say “follow the science” and then holler when we don’t like what they do in response to this.

    The rumors I am hearing is that this wasn’t scientifically motivated at all, that it was specifically at the behest of Delta Airlines and completely blindsided researchers who were instructed to scientifically justify it after the fact. If so, it’s a major problem.

  67. 67.

    Suzanne

    @germy:

    I used to see that sort of fatalist logic from cigarette smokers.  “Everyone dies eventually, I might as well enjoy myself”  etc.

    These are people that just want to indulge their vices without confronting the consequences. And so they lie to themselves.

    One aspect of this that I have come to thin about in recent months is how this ties to beauty expectations. I sometimes read Rod Dreher’s crazy blog as an intelligence-gathering mission (as if it is intelligent). He’s made some statements about “accepting rather than denying the aging of the body” as a conservative value. Some of us on the Dr. Oz thread we’re talking about wellness culture, and noted that here in PA, I find it more difficult to find healthy fare at restaurants and gyms are far fewer than when I lived in AZ. I wonder if good health and conventional beauty standards have become (or are becoming) coded as left-wing hippie shit. If so, that would be irony!

  68. 68.

    frosty

    @Soprano2: The people Michael Lewis wrote about in Pandemic excoriated the CDC, and this wasn’t incompetence caused by TFG. My take was that the culture was academic, writing papers, more than public health, preventing disease.

  69. 69.

    Mai Naem mobile

    @Matt McIrvin: college students and their parents travelling to New England for the start of the college year may have brought Delta to New England. Also, that would have been when antibodies from the first vaccines were waning. I have a friend whose kid is going to grad school in Boston and a lot of people in her program tested positive in the first couple of weeks.

  70. 70.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Suzanne: It’s got a lot of dimensions and there are connections you wouldn’t expect. I know people deep in “wellness culture” who don’t get vaccinated because they figure their diet and exercise program will protect them from diseases–there’s this notion that conventional medicine is just a crutch for lazy/fat people. The herbal-supplement business that’s part of it is deeply entwined with right-wing evangelical culture through multilevel marketing.

    And of course one of the standard comebacks to complaints about antivaxxers is “what about obesity?”, though it’s one of those whataboutism things that people don’t seem to care about except when they’re objecting to something else.

  71. 71.

    Argiope

    @Another Scott: So I’m wondering how our data tracking works now that we have (where we can scrounge one up) at-home rapid tests.  To be clear, in NE Ohio these cannot be found anywhere except through friends with a pre-purchased stash, but I have a friend and so confirmed that I have a boosted breakthrough case.  Symptomatic but mild.  No one reports these results, and I imagine I’m not the only one celebrating the two-year anniversary of the pandemic with an infection.

  72. 72.

    Suzanne

    Continuing on the theme of being terrible about their health…. I remember reading a piece about dentists doing some emergency free clinics in rural places, in high school gymnasia and the like. How for many people, it was the only dental care they would get, and they were in terrible shape, in a lot of pain. And then they noted in the piece how many of the people had at least pack-a-day habits and how the only way their teeth could be that bad was if they never brushed their teeth at all. And I instantly became that judgmental conservative POS, realizing that they could spend less money brushing their damn teeth than smoking a pack a day. I am trying to be a better person and scrape together the compassion for the people living this kind of life, but I will admit that once they extend it to not taking a vaccine and protecting others that I come up pretty empty.

  73. 73.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Mai Naem mobile: The Delta wave has been disastrous in Maine, Vermont and northern NH for a while now–the areas hit the earliest had more vaccine hesitancy than the rest of the region, but, also, these areas largely escaped the worst of the earlier waves so there was not much immunity from prior infection. Vermont in particular really seemed like it was on top of things with vaccination, but Delta seems to have just been infectious enough that it could seek out the remaining unvaxxed as well as causing some breakthroughs in unboosted vaxxed in the fall. And NH and northern Maine have the antivaxxers of New England.

    Now it’s spread through Massachusetts and we’re probably seeing some Omicron on top of that, but in my neck of the woods (Essex County, MA) I suspect a lot of it is Delta.

  74. 74.

    Suzanne

    @Matt McIrvin: Agree.

    I have never really thought of wellness culture as especially partisan before. As you noted, there are cuckoos on both sides (and on no sides). I know left-wing essential oils people and right-wing essential oils people. And conventional beauty standards of thinness, fitness, youth, etc. also seem to be seen on both sides, though I would say the left is probably more comfortable with getting away from traditional femininity and more racially diverse looks. But I wonder if that is changing and health itself is increasingly a tribal thing.

    That would suck.

  75. 75.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Suzanne: I suspect the obsession with weight loss and aesthetics actually drives people away from practices that could help them–there’s abundant evidence that exercise, specifically, is very good for you in many ways, and being (very) overweight isn’t good for you, but the level of exercise you need to lose weight consistently is way more strenuous than the amount you need to get health benefits, and if people get the message that it’s only working if you lose weight, they figure there’s no point.

    Part of the problem is that it’s actually very, very difficult to lose weight once you’ve put it on, and there’s a tendency both among doctors and among wellness types to understate how hard it is. And it all gets moralized in weird ways.

    Of course, it is also bizarrely gendered–the whole culture drives women to seek thinness in ways that it doesn’t do for men.

  76. 76.

    Another Scott

    @Argiope: Lack of good data is a continuing problem.  Presumably people who get a positive results on a rapid test will then get it confirmed with a PCR test (which presumably is reported automatically) if they need a clear result to, say, return to work.  Negative rapid results are unlikely to be reported.

    The best thing about rapid tests is that responsible people will not go out and about if they’re indicated to be positive.  Ideally the results would be reported too, but if there’s any friction at all in the process it likely won’t happen.  (Frictionless would be, “scan this QR code and upload it to this website for a $20 discount on your next purchase” or something.)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  77. 77.

    HRA

    We were a horde of people on Christmas Day at my eldest daughter’s home. I have 6 children and 10 grandchildren all adults now. Of course the numbers of people bloated more with husbands, wives and the significant others. We were in a converted 2 car garage that is a huge family room now. It made no difference now. The youngest granddaughter newly an MD has tested positive. I expected it and Grandad and I left early. I already went through being positive and then being negative in October.

  78. 78.

    Fair Economist

    Flu report for 12/11/21-12/18/21: Continuing exponential increases. Positivity up from 3.5% to 5.6%. Lab confirmed cases in the previous week increased to 4,514, compared to 2,438 the week before , with 1,040 cases added to previous weeks. Influenza hospital admissions continue to climb, but not so exponentially, from 1,058 to 1,265. Dominance of H3N2 has increased to an unprecedented level – every single case subtyped last week was H3N2, and there weren’t any Influenza B cases reported at all.

    Respiratory deaths are climbing, but it’s still mostly to overwhelmingly COVID. The striking differences in spread between H3N2 and other flu strains continues to suggest immune escape.

    The CDC has expanded their summary, which is particularly helpful with state and regional comparisons, as the provided graphs and charts on symptomology confound flu and COVID. They report flu is worst in the East and the South, and starting to increase in the West.

  79. 79.

    Fair Economist

    @germy:

    I used to see that sort of fatalist logic from cigarette smokers. “Everyone dies eventually, I might as well enjoy myself” etc.

    They seemed to think a human life was like a light switch. It’s on, and then it suddenly switches off.

    I’ve always interpreted that as motivated reasoning. The addiction is so strong they believe whatever will allow them to continue. There’s no rational basis.

  81. 81.

    Robert Sneddon

    @Soprano2: How is going from 73% to 22.5% not head-spinningly wrong?

    Why do you keep ignoring the 95% confidence interval that the CDC publishes on this estimate? You quote it religiously then take the central figure within that interval as supposedly-inerrant Gospel.

    The CDC estimate ranged from somewhere between 34% and 95% last week to a Xmas Day estimate of 41% to 74%. Big error bars like that indicates the data the CDC is receiving from the various States is incoherent but it’s the only numbers they’ve got to work with.

    You also seem surprised that the incidence of the Omicron variant has reached a high value so quickly. Here in Scotland the number of Omicron variant new cases is now at 80%, from the first recorded Omicron variant cases occurring just over a month ago.

  82. 82.

    EmbraceYourInnerCrone

    @Matt McIrvin: there is also the fact that if you are overweight especially if you re a woman anything you go to the doctor for becomes a discussion on your weight. Health issues get ignored or put down to overweight or anxiety/ hypochondria. I rarely go to the doctor because it’s just exhausting to have things disregarded. I had migraines for a year several times a week and got no help despite repeated requests. Finally had a real bad one and the urgent care doc prescribed something that prevented migraines. A miracle!  Migraines now a few times a year instead of weekly.

  83. 83.

    Robert Sneddon

    Scotland — the first reported data for four days is that there were 15,800 new cases reported yesterday, with a caveat that there’s a backlog of PCR-RT tests from before Xmas to include. This number is five times the new case rate of a month ago. The Omicron variant makes up 80% of cases.

    Test positivity is at 29% which further indicates just how bad it’s getting here.

    There were three deaths within 28 days of being diagnosed with COVID-19 but the registry offices have been closed over the weekend so the actual number of deaths is likely to be a lot higher.

    Hospitalisations and ICU bed occupancy numbers continue to increase but they’re still well below the September peak.

  85. 85.

    Argiope

    @Another Scott: That makes sense—I guess some will report to their healthcare providers also, though I’m not sure that gets uploaded anywhere.  I’m in one room, and so far pretty happy to be.  Not much interest in getting out and about.  But I can imagine truly asymptomatic people would chafe.  Had a relative who agreed begrudgingly to testing pre-holiday gathering say she would be mad to learn she had COVID if she felt fine, presumably because she might feel compelled to change her behavior.  Weird ethics these Republicans have.

  86. 86.

    Bill Arnold

    @Soprano2:
    As always, look at the confidence intervals, which are enormous for these estimates. The press is very bad, sometimes willfully/malevolently bad, with statistics.

  87. 87.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Another Scott:

    Presumably people who get a positive results on a rapid test will then get it confirmed with a PCR test (which presumably is reported automatically) if they need a clear result to, say, return to work.  Negative rapid results are unlikely to be reported.

    I’ve been seeing some discussion of whether you need to confirm a positive rapid test with a PCR. It seems like a waste of resources, since essentially all the inaccuracy in the rapid tests is on the false-negative side–if you test positive, you can pretty safely assume you’ve got it–and if you get infected, you’ll continue to test positive with PCR long after you are no longer infectious.

  89. 89.

    Bill Arnold

    In the egregious confirmation-bias-driven indirectly-linked Nat Review piece, the author JIM GERAGHTY falsely summarizes the The Economist excess deaths estimate for China.

    China has experienced anywhere from 160,000[Ed: this is false] to 1.8 million excess deaths compared to the “normal” trend.

    The The Economist lower bound for their confidence interval is -160,00, that’s negative 160000, completely plausible, in part because reduced air pollution from lockdowns has been expected to reduce China’s horrific air pollution annual kill by quite a bit.
    Here’s the actual table entry:
    China 4,636 0.3 −160k to 1.8m −11 to 130 +17,000%
    And YY_Sima Qian’s very nice daily updates make it quite clear that the reality in China is very very probably closer to the lower bound of that confidence interval than the upper bound.

  90. 90.

    Mai Naem mobile

    @Scamp Dog:  Ramesh Ponnuru is the one with the super high voice(for a guy.) He used to come on NPR quite a bit as the ‘conservative’ and if I tuned in mid conversation it would take me a few minutes to figure out it was a guy. Dinesh D’Souza is the uber grifter/felon who was caught screwing around on his estranged wife, with his girlfriend/fiancee while working for an evangelical university.

  91. 91.

    Robert Sneddon

    UK COVID19 numbers for today are finally out, after a delay. Over 183,000 new cases were reported, over 60,000 more than the previous record numbers over the Xmas holidays. That would be a million cases in the US on a per capita basis. Omicron is causing most of these cases of course even with good vaccination rates nationwide and a booster dose program.

    I don’t really know if that number is accurate given the disruption to data collection processes caused by the four-day holiday weekend and of course we’ve got another holiday coming up this weekend to add to the confusion. The bugs should be out of the data pipeline by Friday and the reporting then should be more realistic.

    The number of deaths continues to fall but again we’re coming out of a long holiday period when the register offices are closed. Hospitalisations are going up, not surprisingly.

    In other news around the UK there’s an increasing shortage of lateral-flow rapid tests as more people are testing more frequently given the current situation plus more restrictions on access to hospitality venues, sports grounds etc. without a recent negative test.

    On a personal note I picked up a chesty cough yesterday and tested myself  this morning with a welcome negative result. I will be staying at home as much as possible for the next week or two just to try and avoid the current surge.

  92. 92.

    J R in WV

    @Scamp Dog: 

    @Baud: Because it’s a convicted felon Ramesh Ponnuru tweet.

    Added for completeness.

    Actually, I suspect you are conflating Ramesh Ponnuru with Dinesh d’Souza, another ultra-conservative South Asian Indian person who actually is a convicted felon. Ramesh does not appear to have the same interactions with the Justice System as Dinesh has had.

    I can’t tell if that means Ramesh is actually a better person, or is just better at keeping it on the down low as it were. But he is not a convicted felon in any case.

  93. 93.

    Ruckus

    @EmbraceYourInnerCrone:

    I’ve suffered from migraines for decades. Not all that long ago there really wasn’t much way to deal with them other than suffer or opioids. I was prescribed one that would shut off the pain completely in 15 minutes about 25-30 yrs ago. But all that does is trade a pain for a possible/likely opioid addiction. But as you noted there are ways to reasonably prevent most migraines and ways to shut them down when they do occur. And lives have gotten better.

    On your point about many docs treating woman rather crappy I’ve heard this before and I’ve even seen this very occasionally as a man, you are beneath their “station” in life and therefore wasting their time. I imagine that they are in medicine strictly for the money rather than any concept of helping whatsoever. I’ve even told one to fuck off.  It did make me feel better, so my trip to the doc wasn’t wasted.

  94. 94.

    dopey-o

    @J R in WV: I can’t tell if that means Ramesh is actually a better person, or is just better at keeping it on the down low as it were. But he is not a convicted felon in any case.

    IANAL, so I can say with supreme confidence that “convicted” is a relatively subjective term.

    I am, however, a trained epidemiologist (Facebook School of Medicine) and I can confidently state we we are so fscked!

    It isn’t Covid, it’s the epidemic of stupid.

  95. 95.

    Soprano2

    @Matt McIrvin: The most infectious time is at the beginning, when people don’t even know they’re sick yet!  So to me this policy does make sense from a scientific viewpoint. Those rumors about it being for Delta Airlines are driven by Twitter. I don’t think that’s why they did it – I think it’s more because they know that if omicron is as infectious to vaccinated people as they think, a 10-day quarantine of people with no symptoms when they were probably most contagious when they didn’t even know they were sick would shut down whole industries and businesses, including hospitals. Now you may think it’s OK to shut down whole industries for two or three weeks while people who don’t feel sick and aren’t contagious sit at home, but I can guarantee you that the Biden administration doesn’t think that’s OK.

  96. 96.

    Soprano2

    @Robert Sneddon: Because the press reported the 73% number as if it were gospel without saying “here’s the range”. I wish the CDC would understand that this is what is going to happen in the days of Twitter. I didn’t see anything about a “confidence interval” or a huge range like that, but I did see “The CDC says 73% of Covid cases in the U.S. are now omicron” all over the press in almost every story about it! This was quoted as if it were the gospel truth.

  97. 97.

    Robert Sneddon

    @Soprano2: You yourself quoted the actual CDC reports WITH THE CONFIDENCE RANGE then you complained about how the CDC had reported their estimates of Omicron variant spread. Now you’re blaming the press reports which were, well, press reports, second-hand data at best and further dumbed down for a grade-8 education reader.

  98. 98.

    Percysowner

    @EmbraceYourInnerCrone: ​
      I’ve had migraines for years. I am so mad the FDA stopped allowing them to sell generic Midrine. It worked like a champ for me. Two pills and a quick lie down and the headache would go away. Or, taking them early enough would stop the thing dead in its tracks.

    But, it was grandfathered in for years, then the FDA finally decided that to continue the manufacturer of grandfathered drugs had to go through the full approval process. With new, way more expensive migraine drugs available, no manufacturer thought it worth the time or money, so a drug that had been on the market since 1948 is no longer available anywhere. The active ingredient is what had to be tested, so you can’t even compound the thing. Many, many migraine sufferers are really unhappy because for many of us it worked reliably.

  99. 99.

    Glidwrith

    Really late to the thread, but maybe you will see this: Midrin has other names depending on the manufacturer. According to Wikipedia, it is being marketed under the name Nodolor

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