Sick at heart about what is happening, but feeling a lot of love for Ukraine, President Zelensky, his family and his brave crew, and the people of Ukraine.
I’m in awe of this man. How can we not support him and his people when they demonstrate such grit and determination. #StandWithUkriane pic.twitter.com/ok6JOXl4KA
— Yevgeny (Eugene) Vindman (@YVindman) February 26, 2022
Zelensky honestly feels like a leader out of legend. The first great hero in this new era of democracy vs. autocracy
— Paul Massaro (@apmassaro3) February 25, 2022
The Canadian embassy after dark, lit with the colors of Ukraine.
Not sure I agree with Garry Kasparov on Keystone, but everything else looked pretty good to me.
-Support Ukraine militarily, immediately, everything but boots on the ground. All weapons, intel, cyber.
-Bankrupt Putin’s war machine. Freeze & seize Russia’s finances & those of him and his gang.
-Kick Russia out of every intl & financial institution. PACE, Interpol, etc 2/5— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) February 24, 2022
.
-Expose and act against Putin’s lackeys in the free world. If Schröder and his ilk continue to work for Putin, bring charges. Ask the owners & advertisers of networks platforming Putin propagandists like Carlson why they allow it. 4/5
— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) February 24, 2022
.
Cannot ignore the political 5th column of Putinists, from the far right & left in EU to the tankies & Trump & his GOP followers in the US. They may have the right to support a brutal dictator’s war in order to criticize Biden, but it’s disgusting and anti-American. Do not forget.
— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) February 24, 2022
Between the mostly non-functional Fourth Estate and the Fifth Column, our country is in a world of hurt.
This from the Hoarse Whisperer was also interesting.
I added War in Ukraine to the category bar up top, so just click that to go to all posts on Ukraine. For mobile, it is the top item in the hamburger menu.
I am also putting together a list of especially good resources at that link too, so take a look at what’s there and let me know if there are good ones to add. I could add a few more especially good folks on twitter, too, if there was agreement on who that should be.
Update: US, allies to kick certain Russian banks out of SWIFT banking system
The White House on Saturday announced that the United States and allies will kick certain Russian banks out of a major international banking system, a significant step in a bid to cripple the Russian economy in response to the country’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Biden administration and European allies agreed to cut Russia out of access to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), a rapid shift from just days ago when it appeared such a move was unlikely in the near future.
The U.S. and European nations also committed to imposing measures to prevent the Russian Central Bank from using its reserves to undermine sanctions.
The announcement came via a joint statement from the leaders of the U.S., the European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and Canada. The leaders called Russian attacks on Ukraine “an assault on fundamental international rules and norms that have prevailed since the Second World War, which we are committed to defending.”
“We stand with the Ukrainian people in this dark hour. Even beyond the measures we are announcing today, we are prepared to take further measures to hold Russia to account for its attack on Ukraine,” the nations said in the statement.
Banks across the world use SWIFT to finalize transactions and transfers. Cutting Russia off from SWIFT would make it incredibly difficult for its banks to operate efficiently, but could also wreak economic havoc for European nations that depend on Russian oil and natural gas exports.
Sebastian
Russia is out of SWIFT.
EDIT: Slava Ukraini!
germy
Reopen Keystone?
WaterGirl
@Sebastian: Wowser! I just updated the post up top to include that information.
WaterGirl
@germy: What does your question mean?
germy
@WaterGirl:
that’s one of Kasparov’s suggestions.
WaterGirl
Not sure if anyone noticed this up top so I will repeat it here:
WaterGirl
@germy: Yeah I know that, that’s why I mentioned up to that I didn’t agree with that one.
But I couldn’t tell what your question was intending to communicate. That you didn’t know why I mentioned Keystone? That you thought it was a crazy or terrible idea? I was trying to ask for clarification.
trollhattan
@germy:
My baggy memory is Keystone extension was cancelled and the rest of Keystone exists.
Whatever benefit shoving more of that weirdass tar sands stuff off to Gulf ports may accrue from adding a dedicated pipeline, I fail to grasp how that helps the West leverage itself against Russian gas and oil.
Starfish
@germy: Kasparov is a conservative, and he would be aligned with a conservative party here in the US if the conservative party was marginally sane.
He would a) show general antipathy towards women b) like guns, and c) be for securing as much oil as possible, so we do not have to rely on Russian oil ever.
I don’t think he would burn books or align himself with what ever is happening with white evangelicals.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
I am wondering if the group-think around Putin was Zelensky and Ukrainian leadership were just fake tough guys like them and would simply bail for the West when the shooting started and Ukraine would collapse like Afghanistan did. That sure would explain a lot with the Russians.
Miss Bianca
Well, I read through Kasparov’s checklist and it looks like almost everything he’s suggested is either underway, or could be underway soon. There’s been a massive movement towards isolating Russia completely within the last 72 hours. I am hoping that the next 72 shows even more.
New Deal democrat
This seems pretty significant, from Robert Farley:
https://mobile.twitter.com/drfarls/status/1497611166037594112
“This really is remarkable. NATO countries are pouring weapons into Ukraine with the specific intent of killing Russian soldiers. Russia doesn’t seem prepared to do anything about it.”
germy
@WaterGirl:
Sorry! I skimmed too quickly and didn’t see your first comment about keystone in the main post.
Butter Emails
@WaterGirl:
It shows a lack of knowledge on Kasparov’s part. Keystone is operational. The Keystone XL was cancelled and never completed so couldn’t be turned on. It also wouldn’t do much – it would probably have allowed a bit of flexibility as the tar sand sludge could have been more readily refined and exported abroad at the expense of higher prices in the midwest.
HumboldtBlue
A Ukrainian man, barred from leaving the country, turned over custody of his two children to a Hungarian woman at the border while the children’s mother was en route back home from Italy. Fuck Putin.
The Romanians, the Poles, the Czechs, the Moldovans, have all flocked to the border with Ukraine to provide assistance to UKR refugees.
World Central Kitchen is on site as well.
Ukrainians aren’t backing down, that goes for the cats as well.
They are pawns for a man who cares nothing for their lives. Many didn’t even know they were going to war.
Yarrow
I like how every day, even several times a day, new sanctions and new restrictions are being applied and more sports and entertainment events are saying Russia can’t participate. Here’s something that happened today in the sports world.
Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich is turning over “stewardship” of the Premier League football club Chelsea, which he’s owned for almost 20 years. He’s not being forced out of ownership but it’s a step in the right direction.
Chagall Charles Caltrop
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I agree. I also think that Putin, surrounded as he is by yes-men who echo his propaganda, thought that the Ukrainian government would collapse like the Afghan government.
Because otherwise I can’t figure out why he invaded now (except for the fact that invading in winter meant that Europe would be less likely to cut off Russian gas & oil – but that would apply to every winter).
Sebastian
@WaterGirl:
Tbh this was clear from the beginning. It is all being rolled out in phases. Today is day 4 of the invasion and we are already at a SWIFT ban. In a few weeks we might see widespread arrests of Russian collaborators in the West.
I am watching Winter on Fire. Unbelievable courage and determination. The only way to conquer Kyiv is with a million soldiers, half of them dead. The Ukrainians will turn it into Hell on Earth.
They were shot at and killed by the dozens and yet they stood their ground. Unbelievable.
germy
@Chagall Charles Caltrop:
Someone mentioned elsewhere that covid and Putin’s isolation meant he had more time to read Russian history books and formulate some of his bad plans and ideas.
HumboldtBlue
@Sebastian:
Trying to findHere’s the clip of two Russian BMPs engulfed in flames from Molotov cocktails. The Russians are going to suffer and suffer badly.The Moar You Know
@Starfish: I think we’re going to have to embrace this in the short term in order to HAVE a long term. I don’t have to like it but can’t argue with it.
Russia can’t be allowed to do this again. To anyone. They’re going to need to be broken and disarmed. I am not looking forward to that process.
MisterDancer
I would add Terrell Jermaine Starr (@terrelljstarr on Twitter, writes for Foreign Policy mag). Black Journo who has been living in Kyiv for years. His work over the last little while has been an excellent POV, for me, into the ordinary lives of the people in this horrific time.
Here are some examples of his work:
WaterGirl
@Miss Bianca: Things are moving fast. I just hope it’s enough.
WaterGirl
@Starfish: I was not aware of that. I was quite impressed with him when Preet had Garry K. on his show a couple of years ago.
WaterGirl
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: That’s an interesting thought.
Starfish
@The Moar You Know: I think we need to be aggressively looking for other energy sources, but I also don’t believe we should be saying “Dear Europe, please freeze in winter for our false environmental consciousness.”
Gravenstone
@germy: Was never “open” in the first place. The entire run was never completed, nor the Gulf shipping terminal.
The Moar You Know
@Starfish: precisely. We can do both at the same time.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Yes, this. It sounds like even the Russian elite were surprised by this war along with the Russian military itself. The only thing I can come with Putin is feeling the end is near he wants a legacy in worst possible way before he dies and now he got one in the worst possible way.
And Putin is planning to take on NATO with this clown circus?
HumboldtBlue
@MisterDancer:
Great links, he’s been everywhere and every time I look up he’s got something new to report.
WaterGirl
@MisterDancer: Thanks! I added his twitter link
VOR
Environmentalist Bill McKibben has an editorial in The Guardian arguing the long-term way to punish Putin is to implement renewable energy. Russia is basically a petrostate like KSA so depriving them of customers would work.
Gin & Tonic
@MisterDancer: He’s a very good follow, Interestingly, he’s said he’s devoting the next several months to mastering the Ukrainian language (he has good Russian, but little Ukrainian now.) He had an interesting thread, using his perspective as a Black man, to talk about the oppression Ukrainians have endured over the centuries.
ETA: Duh, should have read your links more carefully.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@HumboldtBlue: Adam said that’s a scene from a Ukrainian movie last night.
WaterGirl
@VOR: I have heard that elsewhere, too, in the past few days. I think maybe in Jen Psaki’s press briefings this week. Fuck Putin and move to renewable energy. double-win
germy
@VOR:
I wish that could be done quickly, but unfortunately we can’t. Not with the GOP and their donors
Renewables are the patriotic way forward, IMO.
Gin & Tonic
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Yeah, that’s old video.
WaterGirl
@germy: No problem! But now maybe you know why I wasn’t sure what you were getting at.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
HumboldtBlue
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
OK, that actually makes sense.
Miss Bianca
@HumboldtBlue: You know, I never thought I’d feel sorry for a Russian soldier. But here I am going, “those poor, poor young chumps…they so did not know what they were getting into.”
HumboldtBlue
@Gin & Tonic:
Please don’t be too harsh, been a lot of linking going on between Reddit, family thread and here.
germy
@WaterGirl:
I had read his tweet earlier in the day on twitter and it was the one item I disagreed with. My fault was skimming your main post too quickly.
SpaceUnit
I keep thinking about TFG withholding military aid to Ukraine until they manufactured dirt on Hunter Biden.
I keep thinking about Rudy G. and other trump flunkies traveling to Ukraine to achieve the same goal.
I’m thinking about that list of individuals that Russia wanted to round up or assassinate.
I can’t help but wonder if this invasion is retribution against individuals in and around the Ukrainian government for refusing to assist with reinstalling Putin’s puppet regime in the US.
I know it’s sort of crazy, but . . .
Gin & Tonic
As I said downstairs, there are many long nights and long days ahead. The Western support is encouraging, and morale is high, but plenty of people will still die. I don’t see a viable exit strategy for Putin, and a cornered animal is *very* dangerous.
Miss Bianca
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Good. About damn fucking time, too.
germy
Am I unrealistic to hope someone in Putin’s inner circle decides to slip something in the old man’s hot cocoa (or vodka or whatever he drinks) before the Russian economy is destroyed? The only life worth losing is Vlad’s.
Captain C
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: It sounds like there’s a plan afoot to piss off the oligarchs enough to get rid of Putin. When you’re the big bad (mafia) boss, if you can’t protect your underlings, their livelihoods, and their mistresses, they find someone who can.
Gin & Tonic
@SpaceUnit: No, it’s because Putin does not believe Ukraine is a legitimate country or that “Ukrainian” is a real nationality. This is chauvinistic imperialism. That’s what he has said and written, and I believe him.
WaterGirl
@Sebastian: Biden said just a couple of days ago that they were not going to do this with SWIFT. So why do you feel that was clear from the beginning. It sounded like they would maybe consider it in a month or two, which felt way to late to me.
HumboldtBlue
@Miss Bianca:
The conscripts in particular. They are simply fodder. I’ll find the tweet that describes the capture of some 200, who were allowed to call their parents in Russia. Their parents had no idea they were in Ukraine.
The Pale Scot
@HumboldtBlue:
That’s from a 2015 movie
Miss Bianca
@SpaceUnit: If your speculations are crazy, then I’m crazy too – I’ve been reflecting on all those things you mentioned and thinking, “it’s all interconnected. Why does Ukraine keep coming up over and over in the middle of these assholes’ machinations?”
Putin and his lackeys both in Russia and the US have apparently been planning to fuck Ukraine’s shit up for a long, long time. Well…I don’t think this is necessarily going to work out to Russia’s advantage.
And if I had Adam Schiff’s ear *ahem* I might be asking him, “so, is the January 6 committee going to discover more links to Trumpists’ Treason in Ukraine?”
Baud
I picked a bad time to become a Russian oligarch.
germy
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic:
I added your link and others to the War in Ukraine if you want to check it out. You can also find it in the category bar up top.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Miss Bianca: a lot of horror and suffering to go around in this. I think everyone, including the Russians, got this vision of war from our military were it’s the other side that dies because the US spent a large fortune to make sure it was that way.
dexwood
@germy: You are not alone in that hope. I still hope TFG chokes to death on a cheeseburger.
Jinchi
Quite the contrast in courage between leaders.
Miss Bianca
@germy: I don’t think Putin is currently letting anyone get close enough to him to do that – literally, he’s keeping everyone in his inner circle at least 15 feet away from him.
But it could happen. Man’s gotta eat, after all, and I somehow don’t think his paranoia extends to making his own meals. Live by the plutonium tea party, die by the plutonium tea party.
Haroldo
The Twitter account of the ex-president of Estonia, Toomas Ilves, is a good read He doesn’t like Russians much
Chacal Charles Caltrop
@SpaceUnit: actually, that may be very likely true!
Because I’m sure that Putin didn’t invade during TFG’s first term because he’d have more allies in place for TFG’s second term. And then the second term didn’t happen, so Putin wants payback.
And he knows just who failed to come through…
WaterGirl
@germy: That’s okay, I imagine the number of people who actually read the whole post up top is well below 50%. :-)
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic: Maybe feeling less grim than a couple of evenings ago? Or was that last night? I am losing track of time. Everything seems so fast and so slow at the same time.
SpaceUnit
@Gin & Tonic:
I suppose you’re right.
But I still think Putin came within inches of a de facto takeover of the US via Trump and a corrupt Republican party. You couldn’t turn over a rock near that administration without finding a bunch of Kremlin-connected mobsters.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@germy: The Fins in 1939. Same story too, the Soviets rushed the Fins with massed conscripts, the conscripts died in mass.
Starfish
@WaterGirl: I read his book, Deep Thinking: Where Machine Intelligence Ends and Human Creativity Begins, because someone who I follow on GoodReads mentioned it.
The book was a good read, but women just do not exist in this world. If I was a man or much younger, I would have not noticed this.
germy
@WaterGirl:
I remember the first day we brought our cat home. I’d printed up a list of instructions and rules; where the litter box was, why wires shouldn’t be chewed, etc.
She glanced at it and then rolled over on it because she liked the paper texture.
Gin & Tonic
True story follows: my son has a friend in Chernihiv (Ukraine, north of Kyiv, close to Belarus border.) Friend has two cousins in Moscow. One of the cousins posted a completely anodyne “No War” message on FB. In the middle of the night comes banging on the door – police made him delete the post.
Jinchi
The man literally keeps a 5 meter barricade between himself and everyone else in the room, so maybe he’s had the same thought.
germy
@dexwood:
that will never happen. He has paid attendants chew and then regurgitate into his mouth. That’s why he calls his base of operations the Eagle’s Nest
SpaceUnit
@Miss Bianca:
I’m glad to learn I’m not the only one thinking this way.
CaseyL
@SpaceUnit: That’;s OK: I’ve thought of something even crazier. What if the speed and resolve the world is showing in uniting against Russia/Putin has a lot to do with his political dirty work over the past few decades?
Not all of it, maybe not even most of it: the horror and revulsion at what’s happening to Ukraine is real and sincere.
But there may be a sizable component of “We couldn’t do anything to him and his fellow travelers before because we couldn’t prove what we knew, or our political institutions weren’t up to the challenge, but now by God we have a chance to get this bastard out of the political ratfucking business.”
Calouste
@germy:
@Captain C:
I think that is indeed the only realistic option, that people around Putin take him out. He is a dictator, but dictators don’t rule by magic and can’t do everything on their own. And if the people he needs think they’re better off without him then with him, it’s only a matter of opportunity. Hitler almost got blown up by a plot organized by some of his generals.
trollhattan
@VOR:
This. Once the grid and transportation are majority, later entirely renewables the ability of petrostates to directly affect your nation dissolves. We have been faffing about this since the early ’70s, when the technology basically didn’t exist. Now, it does.
Yarrow
@Gin & Tonic:
A big concern. He’s not just a cornered animal. He’s a cornered animal, potentially rabid, with nukes.
@Captain C:
Seems like a good idea. Not sure if it will work. Do the oligarchs own Putin or does he own them? Who’s really running the show?
Gin & Tonic
@WaterGirl: The situation has had some significant positive aspects. But I’m sure worse is to come. My feeling is if they can hold out for a week, things start to get pretty hairy for Russia.
But I still don’t see how Putin ends this.
Baud
@Gin & Tonic:
Damn.
germy
@Baud:
Transfer everything to bitcoin you’ll be fine
WaterGirl
@Haroldo: Thanks. Is that more information, or commentary?
dmsilev
@New Deal democrat:
I guess the question is what could Russia do about it? Economic sanctions are out; cutting off gas sales or whatever would hurt Russia at least as much as it hurts Germany etc. That leaves …direct responses, and sending missiles hurtling into Poland probably wouldn’t end well either. Cyberattacks, I suppose?
Ken
@germy: I’ve been thinking the Battle of Stalingrad, actually.
SpaceUnit
@Chacal Charles Caltrop:
Right. Putin came soooo close to what would have been one of the greatest (and most sinister) feats in modern history.
dexwood
@germy: Oh, man, I was about to begin dinner prep. I know about bird regurgitation, but hadn’t considered the lengths TFG will go to stay alive. Yet, it rings true.
trollhattan
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Finns are tough MFs and we are observing Ukrainians to be, too.
This isn’t Iraq, that’s for sure, and I bet Vlad is jealous of both the Kuwait and Iraq invasions and thinks he can will the same result now.
Mokum
@Chagall Charles Caltrop: It seems he waited till Angela Merkel was gone. The current German foreign team is very inexperienced, but they are learning quickly. The Foreign minister is from the Greens, and I am amazed they are now sending weapons to Ukraine and allowing other countries to transfer German weapons to Ukraine, too. I think Putin expected the current German government would veto any meaningful actions of the EU and Nato. Another miscalculation.
Spanky
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Two “n”s in “Finns”.
eachother
I have seen weather of the region accurate pictures of a blown up bridge. If that’s Ukraine, it’s a shame for longer term but I heard it may have kept a lot of stank tanks on the offensive flank bank?
I also heard a soldier knew a bridge could be blown but a person had to do it. I heard he went and did it. Extreme sacrifice.
I’m hearing the speed of advance may be slower than projections had it. Maybe a statue to a legendary story?
germy
CROAKER
Be careful of posting random twitter videos
Haroldo
@WaterGirl:
Both. A lot of retweeting from many sources, coupled with more than a few editorial comments. Strong emotions.
Miss Bianca
@CaseyL: I wouldn’t be surprised if there was some “payback time, bitches” energy behind some of these decisions.
Spanky
@germy: Thanks for that dinnertime post, pal.
SpaceUnit
@CaseyL:
It’s possible. Putin solidified his grip on power by basically consolidating the powers of state and organized crime. It’s obvious that he’s expanded that tactic beyond the Russian border.
Haroldo
@Gin & Tonic:
Putin’s endgame bothers me, too.
Miss Bianca
@germy: OMG. Is that literally true? I just threw up in my mouth a little reading that.
But I wouldn’t feed Putin with it if I had to choke to death on it.
germy
Miss Bianca
@Gin & Tonic:
It may have to come down to someone – or a group of someones – ending Putin first.
Sebastian
@HumboldtBlue:
Yeah, that’s from the Maidan Revolution. Eastern Europeans are fucking Metal.
Putin sent the Russian Army into a meat grinder worse than Afghanistan. Nothing will be the same after this.
Sebastian
@Chagall Charles Caltrop:
His boy Yanukovich, Manafort’s Big Daddy, did exactly that after he had people shot and they didn’t back down.
They are ordinary thugs.
eachother
It’s almost March 1st.
The Irish can have the whole month for being good motivating spirits.
My beer is raised in salute.
WaterGirl
@germy: ha!
germy
Yarrow
Fake Irishman
@VOR: heck, this is a medium term strategy now. 5 years from now the natural gas threat won’t be as bad, in 10 years even less teeth.
Anonymous At Work
What makes Zelensky even more amazing is his background. He was basically their national version of Stephen Colbert, who got sick of corruption in government, ran for office to insult the Ukrainian “Trump” in debates, but became the opposition candidate and eventual winner.
Sebastian
@WaterGirl:
Because Biden mentioned it at all. You introduce something as radical as removal from SWIFT by first denying it. This brings it into the public discourse: POTUS said we won’t. Why? We should! We should not! It might anger Moscow! Fuck Moscow!
if they thought it unhelpful they would never brought it up. IIRC Biden was unprompted when he mentioned
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Martin
Yeah, he’s wrong on Keystone, but not terribly far wrong.
The problem with ‘increase production’ is that every time we do that, we increase consumption, so it never ends. The EU needs to go onto a wartime footing with regards to renewables. Take the investments you would have made fighting Russia and plow them all into renewables, EVs, etc. Honestly, the US needs to do that as well. Take all of the petrostates off the table.
Sloane Ranger
@germy: The Greeks and the Norwegians both held out against the Nazis for months, despite being outgunned and outnumbered. Like them, the Ukrainians are fighting to protect their homeland from an invader. Weapons and other support is also a big help.
Praying that Kyiv and the other cities can keep the Russians out for another night.
Starfish
@TaMara: Someone posted a correction to the video?
Peale
@germy: well, you have to admit, when discussing the history of civilization, the area around Iraq seldom comes up.
germy
@dexwood:
@Miss Bianca:
No, this was my attempt at satire. From what I understand, Trump chews and swallows his own hamberders. So far, no assistants have been recruited to chew and regurgitate into his mouth.
Fake Irishman
@CaseyL:
this is at light speed in international diplomacy. Different time of course, but Britain and France didn’t formally declare on Germany until sept 4 1939, 3 days after the initial invasion.
@Sebastian:
Sebastian
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Ok, this confirms now it was a trap that sprung. You don’t decide things like that within hours, they are rolling out a prepared strategy.
The Panama Papers.
We’ll see a lot of GOPers get caught up in this.
Gin & Tonic
@Sebastian: It’s been in the discussion for a long time, long before Biden mentioned it.
TaMara
@Starfish: Thanks, I’ll pull it… don’t want to spread disinformation. I assumed a Vindman tweet would be a good source. Thanks.
dmsilev
@Sebastian: Biden said, more or less, that the US wanted to oust Russia from SWIFT right away but that some of the European countries didn’t want to, or at least wanted to wait. It’s that latter part which has changed over the last few days; even places like Hungary are now in the ‘lock them out’ camp.
debbie
@SpaceUnit:
Here’s a thought: How about redirecting TFG’s pension fund and whatever else an ex-president gets to a refund for the people of Ukraine?
Gravenstone
@germy: Arrest the stupid fuck on the spot and toss him out of the country as a spy.
Jinchi
My guess is that Putin thought Zelensky would run for the exits as fast as Ashraf Ghani did when he knew the US was really going to leave Afghanistan.
debbie
@Gin & Tonic:
Do his oligarch buddies feel the same way?
Gravenstone
@germy: /facepalm
Kalakal
@germy: That’s about what I’d expect from Hannon, he’s a Brexit loving libertarian nationalist ie a loathsome toad
“He advocates an affinity of “English-speaking nations” which share Anglosphere characteristics”
here he is in the WSJ
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-world-of-english-freedoms-1384548853
Baud
@Sebastian:
Biden wants to keep the coalition unified. That means he’s not going to be too far in front of where other countries are.
WaterGirl
@eachother:
The Russians were about to come across the bridge and there was no time to set the explosion from a distance, so he apparently said goodbye and blew the bridge up, giving his life to stop the russians.
SpaceUnit
@debbie:
Perfect.
trollhattan
@germy: Shut up, Wolf, you stupid, stupid man.
Speaking of inappropriate interview questions, BBC reporter had a Ukrainian wife on the phone discussing her doctor husband who has volunteered to join the army’s medical unit. He asked her “Have you thought about what happens if he ships out and never comes home?”
Pretty much lost my shit at that one.
dexwood
@germy: I got that. Didn’t see it as an attempt, read it for the snark it was.
Miss Bianca
@germy: God, I was hoping so, knowing you.
topclimber
@Miss Bianca: Maybe mocking his intelligence chief on national TV was not a great move.
Baud
@trollhattan:
“No, it hadn’t crossed my mind.”
WaterGirl
@germy: Un-fucking-believable.
trollhattan
@Sebastian:
Don’t think we can hang Afghanistan around Putin’s neck, it was in 1979. He was in KGB then, though.
Starfish
@TaMara: All of this is very hard because we are trying to consume media from a country where we do not speak the language. There will be active psychological warfare going on, and we will be the consumers of it, even if we are not the target of it.
There was that video of that tank rolling over that car yesterday, and people in the comments were saying it was a Ukrainian tank, but it was driven by Russians. It was very confusing. Then there were other videos of people rescuing the person whose car was rolled over by the tank. Was any of that true? I have no clue.
trollhattan
@Baud: Right? “Gosh, now that you mention it mister English person.”
Gin & Tonic
@Jinchi: Zelensky was a comedian, yes, but he was a short Jewish kid who grew up on the wrong side of the tracks in a shitty town, where he learned about loyalty to/with a crew. That’s the background you should think of when viewing that “we’re all here” video from last night. He ain’t going nowhere.
WaterGirl
@Sebastian: Interesting way of looking at it.
raven
@Starfish: Somewhere today someone wrote that the Russian armor was made in Ukraine.
Martin
@New Deal democrat: Yeah, it looks like flooding Ukraine with anti-armor weapons is paying off. I’m seeing a lot of photos of NLAWs on social media.
Sebastian
@Mokum:
Germany has strict arms export laws. It is by law prohibited to sell weapons into conflict zones. The buyers themselves are not allowed to send/sell/lend the weapons to someone who would use them in a conflict zone. Same for Austria btw.
For Germany to grant an exception this quickly is unheard of. The last few times the parliamentary debates lasted weeks and months.
trollhattan
Swatting at the Bear.
debbie
@Gravenstone:
Tell Wolf he’s where he says he is: With Ukraine’s soldiers. Then throw Wolf out.
debbie
@Jinchi:
To Putin, Zelensky is nothing more than a Jew. So, basically nothing.
WaterGirl
@TaMara:
That would be a very fair assumption!
CaseyL
@Fake Irishman: Yes, the speed of decisions and acting on those decisions is breathtaking. Lots of pre-planning.
It makes me wonder if the alliance has an end game, even if Putin doesn’t. And how far our intelligence services may have penetrated into Putin’s circle, even given TFG’s sabotage. (Since he got a fair number of their colleagues killed, I imagine they’d be ecstatic to take out Putin in a way that also takes out TFG.)
germy
Wolf screaming as he’s led out of the studio: “But I’m not a spy, I’m just an idiot!”
Dorothy A. Winsor
I’m trying to think of another example of a leader who refused to leave when their country was being attacked, and instead went out to join the fight.
Baud
@Sebastian:
Germany is so happy they aren’t responsible for a major European war.
WaterGirl
@Martin:
NLAWs?
Sebastian
@dmsilev:
Yeah, I wonder how Orban must be feeling now. Kadyrev is shitting his pants for sure after what happened to his expeditionary force.
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
In solidarity, I’ve stopped using russian dressing on my reuben sandwich
raven
@WaterGirl:
We just called them LAWS
Starboard Tack
@Ken: A lot of Soviet soldiers only stayed on the line because they would have been shot by their own if they ran.
Kalakal
@WaterGirl: Next generation Light Anti tank Weapon System. Shoulder launched anti tank missile. UK/Swedish , state of the art.
raven
@Ken: Ya think they are gonna eat their belts?
trollhattan
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch: Now conflicted about the whole “Russian arms and Roman hands” tactic.
Mallard Filmore
@Jinchi:
“HEY! It was a blustery day. I was cold.”
Martin
@WaterGirl: It’ll be hard to identify what ‘enough’ is. Putin may take Kyiv and lose so many troops that he can’t hold the country. I’m pretty sure he’s already galvanized the public so strongly against him that installing a puppet will be nigh-impossible. The Soviets were brutal in putting the populace down, more than I think Russia can pull off in this day and age. I think this will be a pyrrhic victory at best.
Michael Cain
@dmsilev:
My guess is that the way the SWIFT deals shake out, it will still be straightforward to pay Gazprom and any other natural gas companies. They’re not going to hand Putin an excuse — “So, you’re not going to pay your utility bills!” — to turn off the gas spigot.
CliosFanBoy
@HumboldtBlue: I can’t believe* people on Twitter are saying the Ukrainians were MEAN! to that young Russian soldier.
* Narriator: Yes, he can believe it.
Bex
@HumboldtBlue: Scroll down to the third picture in the tweet with the women soldiers. Please post it. I don’t know how to link.
CliosFanBoy
WHICH Canadian Embassy is that? The one in Moscow?
trollhattan
@raven: New tanker song, “I fought the LAWS and the LAWS won.“
Sebastian
@trollhattan:
He didn’t, he sent it into Ukraine which is turning out to be a worse meat grinder than Afghanistan.
Martin
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch:
You’re a monster.
trollhattan
@Mallard Filmore: Genuinely surprised he didn’t leave his cozy tent and go out there, just to get away from Kimberly.
Captain C
@Yarrow:
Do the oligarchs own Putin or does he own them? Who’s really running the show?
Putin owns them to the extent that he can protect their fortunes and power (with the usual caveats about corrupt underlings in corrupt systems carving out little empires that can last as long as they don’t interfere with the Big Boss’s plans, livelihood, or mistresses/catamites). But if Putin can’t protect their fortunes, and if they can’t go to their playgrounds in the West, and take their wives and mistresses shopping at the finest stores, he becomes worse than useless. The question is, when does it get to that point enough with someone who actually has the means and capability to carry it out? Putin’s had 22-23 years to make sure that the right (read: ultra loyal or ultra cowardly) people are around him, and is an old KGB hand so he’s definitely taking max precautions (which are also keeping him from getting good information, hence this debacle).
RaflW
@CaseyL: I mean, if it takes crashing the London luxury housing market (and maybe some other glittering cities best addresses), this is the one perfect time to blame a genuinely horrific guy for the whack in equity for the non-Russians.
CliosFanBoy
@germy: Belgium in August 1914??
Sebastian
@Kalakal:
Interestingly enough, they are also quite capable against soft targets and the minimum range is 20m I believe. It’s a terrifyingly effective weapon.
topclimber
@Martin: My Russian Blue cat has fallen asleep from dealing with the shame.
Another Scott
@Butter Emails: +1
One minor correction:
Insert after “Keystone XL”, the continent spanning death-funnel designed to bring the world’s dirtiest fossil fuel down through our country’s most arable farmlands from the environmental hell spout of northern Alberta to the refineries on the Gulf Coast,
(h/t Charlie Pierce)
;-)
Cheers,
Scott.
raven
@Kalakal: But they are still single use. The article I read said the are air burst and can go off above the target and hit the weakest part.
JPL
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch: DeWine ordered the same in Ohio. Not sure how my governor Kemp feels about that though.
It’s a silly exercise when businesses already paid for it. Maybe ask them not to order it again.
RaflW
@Mokum: I have no idea if the German Greens are thinking this, but potentially knocking a major and very environmentally dirty petro-state back many pegs might have its own appeals.
In the short term, if the gas supplies do end up cut, there’s going to be energy shortages and a push for keeping nukes. But the longer term solution, as said elsewhere here, is along Bill McKibben’s line of thought.
raven
@JPL: Brian will have to wait for someone to tell him what to do.
topclimber
@JPL: What happens when the MAGA truck convoys start being driven by guys chugging vodka in solidarity with their white Russian buds?
Captain C
@dmsilev:
Which run the risk of retaliation, and if everyday Russians can’t use ATMs or the internet, he runs the risk of losing lots of public support. Or, if they go for the big companies and institutions, if Yuri Oligarchsky who already can’t go to London or easily access his euro and dollar accounts now sees his aluminum plant wrecked by cyberattacks, he’s going to be pissed.
Sebastian
@raven:
Tbh that’s a logistical advantage. Shoot and scoot, don’t have to deal with lugging around an empty launcher looking for ammo.
Butter Emails
@Another Scott: Fair enough. Too late to edit unfortunately.
Steeplejack
* DVR Alert *
Two Coen brothers movies on TCM tonight: their first, Blood Simple (1984), at 8:00 p.m. EST, and Fargo (1996) at 9:45 p.m. EST.
Captain C
@topclimber: Hopefully they either get busted for DUI and have the book thrown at them, or alternately, wreck their self-owned rigs, causing no damage to anyone or anything except their livelihood. I doubt their insurance will replace their rig if it was wrecked in a drunk driving accident not related to work.
Captain C
@germy:
Answer: Well, Wolf, and Russian targeteers who are totally not watching, he’s in a room right under your desk at CNN.
Kalakal
@raven: Yes they’re single use. and they do go for the weak armor on the top. Two nice things ( for the user ) is they’re soft launch ( you can fire them from an enclosed space) and self guiding. Fire, drop, and move
raven
@Sebastian: Well if there is more than one target you have to look around for another NLAW.
raven
It is unnecessary for the gunner to consider the range to the target. After launch the missile’s position in its trajectory always coincides with the target irrespective of range.
We had 3.5 rocket launchers (bazookas) but I never fired one at anything but a range target.
Sebastian
Just how many Javelins and NLAWs does Ukraine have?
Wiki says the UK shipped 2,000 NLAWs. If we tally up the various reports, they must have a thousand Javelin launchers (WTF!) and many more missiles, now the Germans are shipping via the Dutch another 500 or more Panzerfaust 3 plus Stingers? We know the Polish gave them almost everything they had plus their own high tech shoulder mounted AA missiles.
I dunno folks, I’ve been following warfare for a long time and this is revolutionary. We are witnessing the end of the tank era.
Kalakal
@raven: Yep
Miss Bianca
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Well…he didn’t join the fight, but King George during WWII comes to mind. His Queen famously made the case for why the Royal Family weren’t going to be evacuating London, I forget her exact words, but it was something like, “the children won’t leave me, I won’t leave the King, and the King won’t leave his country.”
Lyrebird
Yeah I was tempted to quote this up here in case you weren’t available to retweet it.
QFT anyhow.
Seems very clear that the tyrant has royally screwed up his own plans and his own country in the long run, but yeah the rest is unclear only in how bad it’s gonna be for Ukrainians, not whether it’ll be bad.
Thanks again for the news source suggestions and the context.
Starboard Tack
@Kalakal: How does the munition find the target?
Kalakal
@Sebastian: Add in relatively cheap UAVs and it really has become a bad time to be in a tank
daize
@WaterGirl:
How are you doing? Keeping you in my thoughts.
raven
@Starboard Tack: “For a moving target, the gunner maintains tracking for three seconds, training the missile’s guidance electronics to compute the target’s angular speed. After launch the missile flies autonomously to the target making the necessary corrections according to the data acquired by the tracking.”
Sebastian
@raven:
True. Or look for ammo and load it and then fire.
When you consider that missiles need to be transported in protective boxes which is unwieldy and a PITA, the NLAW seems the better option as every missile is already packaged in its own protective tube.
raven
@Sebastian: Better than a 106 recoilless rifle!
eclare
@Steeplejack: Damn. No TCM on my cable service.
Baud
@Sebastian:
You’re a good salesman. I’ll take two.
WaterGirl
@raven: Thank you!
WaterGirl
@Kalakal: Yay!
Martin
@WaterGirl: The category of weapon is Light Anti-armor (or anti-tank) Weapon. Or LAW. The NLAW (New LAW) is a specific UK/Finnish design that the UK has been absolutely shoveling into Ukraine since mid January.
These are disposable antitank weapons (rockets) that can be used by infantry. They weigh about 30 pounds, and have a range of dozens to hundreds of meters. They’re partially guided – the operator tracks the target which helps the rocket understand where the vehicle is moving to. Supposedly they are pretty easy to use, reliable, and fairly cheap (about $30K each, which is a bargain compared the millions a modern tank costs). NLAWs are pretty distinctive looking. I think UK sent them 30,000 of them or something like that. I don’t know how many the US sent, or other nations, but Russia is VERY fond of its mechanized units so these are quite important countermeasures. The NLAW is particularly good for urban fighting.
The US equivalent is the Javelin (not sure if there are newer weapons). Looks similar, but is fairly different in role. It’s a much longer range weapon, and more complex/expensive. The upside is that the Javelin is designed to hit vehicles from above. Basically, they lock onto the target then fly up in the air and hit from the top – that’s where armor is usually weakest. They work better outside of urban areas as they can hit targets several miles away.
The Javelin is the thing Zelenskyy was trying to buy from the US which Trump denied unless they would investigate Hunter Biden. The sale eventually went through once the scheme was uncovered, but the GOP required that they couldn’t be deployed in the eastern half of the nation (I wonder why), something I assume Biden told them to ignore.
Russia seems to concluded that they aren’t just going to roll in and seem to be deploying longer range weapons. Javelins can often match or outrange a lot of it, or certainly hit them from positions that are unlikely to get spotted due to distance. The NLAW is more “hey, there’s a tank rolling down the street, kill it” where the Javelin is ‘there are tanks coming toward our city, kill them before they get here’.
Sebastian
@Baud:
Thank you, Baud. Coming from you it’s a special honor.
I actually am a sales man.
Ken
Don’t worry, Congress will pass a law requiring the Pentagon to maintain current numbers. (I’m basing this on a thread earlier today, where the Pentagon asked to retire some old A-10s, and Congress said no.)
Sebastian
@Martin:
Is the Javelin the system where the sight is detachable and can be used separately as night vision system?
WaterGirl
@CliosFanBoy: The one in Washington. Photo was taken by a former colleague of Subaru Diane.
Miss Bianca
@RaflW: Would it be bad to say that I am rooting for this outcome, for these reasons
ETA: Wondering how many Russians own real estate in Denver, Vail, Aspen, Telluride, Breckenridge…
Sebastian
@Ken:
I vow to support primary challengers for every Congressman or woman who votes for mothballing the A-10.
Peale
@Martin: Someone over at LGM posted a tweet that there are currently 500 tanks headed towards Kviv with rumored orders to secure the city by Monday. Not sure what is following the tanks, but it would be good to hear that by tomorrow there would be a few hundred fewer of them. My worry is that with 30,000 tanks total, Russia can just keep deploying them faster than the anti-tank weapons can by resupplied.
Starboard Tack
@Peale: Destroying tanks usually destroys the crews. A tank’s not much use without a trained crew, even a badly trained one, to run it.
debbie
@Bex:
This?
Julia really got to me this afternoon
Tried three times. Embedding isn’t working, sadly.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Peale: Tanks didn’t work in Grozny in1999. Sounds like Putin is having a temper-tantrum at his subordinates.
WaterGirl
@daize: Still struggling. Thank you for thinking of me.
CliosFanBoy
@WaterGirl: Thanks. it looked like the one here in DC but I couldn’t be sure.
debbie
@debbie:
That didn’t work.
“>Trying again
.
CliosFanBoy
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Sounds like you-know-who in his bunker in April 1945.
Peale
Just having to look it up…so the US lost a total of 1 tank in active fighting in the two Gulf wars apparently. And the tank they lost was later repaired and returned to service.
Sebastian
@Peale:
This reminds me of the battle of Zadar in the Croatian war of independence, where frustrated (and incompetent sycophant political nepotist) warship commanders (captains I guess?) ordered launching of torpedoes against the city. If you wonder how the battle ended, Croatian commandos paddled out in the dark of night and blew gigantic holes into the ships which had to be emergency towed to prevent them from sinking.
Same thing is happening here the big boss ordered Kyiv must be taken by Monday and they are sending everything they have. The folks in Kyiv took out APCs with Molotov cocktails and iron bars, now they probably have a thousand NLAWs, Javelins, and Stingers each.
Maybe I am biased but I see history repeating, on one side a Trumpian organization hollowed out by corruption and incompetence, afraid to say no to the boss. On the other side, q professional and determined force with truckloads of Kryptonite.
Whenever the attack happens, it might be tonight, it will go down as the Slaughter of Kyiv. I feel it in my bones
Martin
@Sebastian: UK was at least 2,000.
The Ukraine purchase when Trump was in office was only for about 250 Javelins. I’ve read that we’ve sent them around 1000 more.
A number of their neighbors have been giving them Javelins as well. Maybe a few hundred? I think France is in the process of sending some.
I understand that Russia has 10K-20K armored vehicles, so these are pretty good numbers. Expect usual Pareto principle applies here – a limited number of high-end vehicles, and a lot of lower-end ones that would be susceptible to the kind of molotov assault from that video.
Starboard Tack
@Peale: Air superiority is a good thing.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@CliosFanBoy: More like Stalin after the first attacks failed in the Winter War of 1939. Then it was sack some generals, shovel more conscripts into the fire, finally pull back, get organize for a serious fight and use artillery to beat down the Fins. The Winter War was what convinced the German Army they could take the Soviet Union, the only thing that saved Stalin was the Germans were as dumb as he was and didn’t have the fuel to reach Moscow.
Martin
@Sebastian: Yes. And that system weighs quite a lot so it’s almost necessary for normal sized people to operate the weapon. It also takes a little while for the infrared system to cool down before the weapon can be used, so it’s not like you can just whip the thing out and fire.
My wife’s uncle invented FLIR, so learned all kinds of stuff about it.
Captain C
@Peale:
But how many are even close to operational? How many are modern, and how many are early issue T-72s, or T-55s, or even T-34s?
Ruckus
@SpaceUnit:
I know it’s sort of crazy, but . . .
vlad is very wealthy and basically owns a country and yet it’s never enough. He’s willing to kill hundreds of thousands of Ukraine people, possibly a lot of his own citizens, for what, a few more bucks, maybe a taller statue of his dick?
Chip Daniels
If history has taught us anything, its that it isn’t over, ever.
During the Cold War, everyone just assumed that the free and independent Baltic nations, the East Bloc nations were gone forever and would always just be minor provinces in the USSR.
Even during WWII, Poland and France spent years under Nazi occupation until they were liberated.
Even if Russia crushes the Ukrainian government and military, this won’t be over, not within our lifetimes. I don’t know what form the Ukrainian resistance will take, but it will exist and it will be formidable.
Ruckus
@WaterGirl:
It sounds like the rest of SWIFT want Russia out. Is Joe going to say no, that’s a bridge too far? I doubt that, but I can see that he didn’t want to lead the charge, he likely wanted this to come from a different direction. Which it seems like it has.
rivers
@Miss Bianca: In a letter after Buckingham Palace was bombed, she famously wrote, “I am glad we have been bombed. Now we can look the East End in the eye.” (The East End being the area where some of the worst destruction in London occurred).
Ruckus
@germy:
SPOT ON.
Miss Bianca
@Martin:
The significance of all of this is only now becoming apparent to me, and it is making me sick with rage.
Frankly, I hope and pray that the January 6 committee is going to be taking a long hard look at Russian-Republican connections and how they relate to the insurrection. A lot of disgusting grubs under *those* rocks, if the committee chooses to turn them over.
Spanky
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: It’s “Finns”.
WaterGirl
@Ruckus: Yeah, a couple of days ago I wrote that I hoped Joe was holding back his support re: SWIFT sanctions until others would get on board and he could say “well, okay” even though I hope he was totally on board.
Ruckus
@WaterGirl:
You are at a T intersection and the opposing traffic is going 100 mph. You can’t even tell which way it’s possible to go, let alone find a way to turn and blend in.
IOW it looks like it’s a blur because it always looks like a blur when life goes in this direction. You know where you want to be, there’s just no obvious way to get there. The citizens of Ukraine know the terrain, those attacking likely have zero idea. And even if the citizens of Ukraine aren’t used to firing weapons and killing people, they are motivated. The vast majority of the Russian troops likely aren’t much better trained and are far less motivated.
Martin
Germany sending 1000 antitank weapons (prob Javelins) as well as surface to air missiles (Stingers).
What’s notable here is that western countries don’t think this is a lost cause, otherwise they wouldn’t be bothering. DOD analysts must think Ukraine has a chance.
Jay
@WaterGirl:
NLAW’s are an upgrade of the LAW missile and disposable launcher.
the LAW has a small HEAT warhead, good against thin armour.
NLAW’s have a much bigger warhead and are a “fire and forget” disposable weapons, they also have a “soft launch” system, so there isn’t an exhaust trail pointing back to the guy who fired it.
Kalakal
@WaterGirl: I think it was Truman that said
“It’s amazing what you can get done if you don’t care who gets the credit”
I’m pretty sure Joe’s got what he wanted all along but a lot of perhaps reluctant people who needed to agree are now all for it because they think it was all their idea
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Martin: and/or they want to inflict maximum damage on the Russian military to keep them from turning toward the Baltic NATO allies?
Miss Bianca
@Martin: I think DOD analysts don’t just think Ukraine has a chance, they are betting on them to win.
WaterGirl
I’m almost afraid to go to bed tonight, worried what we will learn about Ukraine by morning. I am worried for Kyiv, worried for Zelensky and his family, worried about the people of Ukraine. Not a big pray-er but I am praying for them all tonight.
Sanjeevs
Thanks for adding the Ukraine bar.
WaterGirl
@Jay:
I did not know that, that’s very smart. I had no idea what a soft launch system was.
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
This.
WaterGirl
@Kalakal: Great comment. I suspect you are right, and I certainly hope that you are.
WaterGirl
@Sanjeevs: You are most welcome! I hope folks suggest more good information resources so I can add to that part.
edit: You might be the first one to comment on it. I hope people find it useful.
Kalakal
@WaterGirl: Makes it a lot safer for those using one in other ways as well. There’s very little back blast so people standing nearby don’t get fried and you can fire it in enclosed spaces so you’re not so exposed.
J R in WV
@New Deal democrat:
Yes, but killing Russian troops IN UKRAINE — not in Russia. If they went home, no one would be trying to kill them at all…
Kalakal
@WaterGirl: I’m also worried but I’m a lot more optimistic tonight than I was 24 hours ago.
WaterGirl
@Kalakal: I woke in the night last night and reached for my iPad, hoping not to find terrible news about Zelensky and Ukraine.
It’s like election night, is it worse to stay up or worse to go to bed and possibly find horrible news in the morning? Only times a million because good people are dying.
Dan B
@Martin: Thanks for great clarity on “ramping up oil vs. ramping up renewables”. We have strategic gas reserves that can go into LNG for Europe. What are these reserves for? Emergencies.
Wee need bridges to avoid being tethered to fossil fuels. Plow trillions into renewables in every state and territory. Our problem is Manchin and every GQP, not freezing Germans. Give them our reserves at a fair price.
Kalakal
@WaterGirl: I know what you mean, I stayed up late, then woke up about 3:30, checked the news on my phone, then got up about 6 to check again.
What’s happening to the Ukraineans is terrible, their response to it is magnificent.
Something that disturbs me is I’m rooting for Russian casualties when I know most of them are scared young men who don’t want to be there.
I’d quite happily drop Russia’s leaders into an active volcano.
Dan B
@Sebastian: Stolichnaya!! Made in Latvia.
Smooth, especially compared to Smirnoff.
Kalakal
Oh this is charming if true.
From the Kyiv Independent
Bastards
FelonyGovt
@WaterGirl: I appreciate the link, and I really appreciate the detailed information I get here.
One thought I had- is Putin over-stressing his military to the point that Russia would be vulnerable to attack? Just a thought experiment…
Ruckus
@Yarrow:
Seems like a good idea. Not sure if it will work. Do the oligarchs own Putin or does he own them? Who’s really running the show?
Well, vlad runs the show, but like any director he depends upon those willing to put up the big money to make the show a success. Not an exact explanation but the premise is there.
rikyrah
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
I am beginning to believe this. I honestly think that Putin thought Ukraine would fall like the Afghan Military. Nothing else makes sense mmm
Michael Cain
@WaterGirl: Yeah, I’m afraid that the Russians will pick one of the smaller cities and turn their artillery loose on it. If they’re even half as good as NATO and the Pentagon have been telling us for years, they can flatten it.
Eolirin
@FelonyGovt: It’s hard to be vulnerable to invasion when you have nukes.
But this may make it impossible to keep a hold on Belarus and Khazakstan.
Peale
@rikyrah: I when we finally get the whole story, we’ll find out that Putin felt that 8 years of democracy post Maiden had made the Ukraine too woke.
James E Powell
@Martin:
I argued that we should have done that right after 9/11.
Sebastian
@Michael Cain:
Yes, that’s my worry, too.
Sebastian
@Peale:
Not sure if you wrote this in satire but homophobia/Western feminization/LGBTQ is one of the core issues for Putin and his thugs.
rikyrah
@Ken:
Me too
Jay
@Michael Cain:
Russian artillery pieces didn’t do well in Armenia.
Current doctrine is shoot and scoot. You stay in one place, and you die. Drones, loitering munitions, radar directed counterbattery fire that pinpoints the artillery/mortar position before the first fired shell lands.
Everytime you scoot, you have to recalculate everything.
MLRS systems can put a large amount of inaccurate rockets into a grid space, but at best, it’s a 20 minute reload and there is going to be precise incoming.
Another Scott
@Dan B: Dean Baker has (as usual) a good and thoughtful piece at CEPR – Reducing oil prices by paying people not to drive:
Cui Bono? is always a good question, and sending more money to ExxonMobil and the Saudis isn’t going to help us get to where we need to be. Baker is good about cutting to the chase.
Cheers,
Scott.
J R in WV
@WaterGirl:
I left my tablet in the car last night when we got home from an all day medical appointment. Was hard… what time is it? What’s going on? Roll back over and try to go to sleep…
What time is it? etc.
Spanky
@Eolirin: My memory is 30 years +/- years old, but aren’t the majority of their land-based nukes in Kazakstan?
Dan B
@Another Scott: Sounds great. Reducing driving. It also addresses the issue for low income people better than subsidies for electric cars.
BTW Our car is a Nissan Leaf – for five years now. Love the subsidy but our low income neighbors look at the purchase price and say no way.
Fake Irishman
@Jay:
this. Also, civilians will get under cover. I’m sure the Ukrainians, like South Koreans, have been thinking hard about and practicing both the military counter and civil defense sides of the equation.
SiubhanDuinne
@CliosFanBoy:
It’s the Embassy of Canada in Washington, D.C.
tybee
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Warsaw 1944
Kent
@J R in WV: I haven’t done this much “doomscrolling” since November 2020.
Jay
@Spanky:
nope, not since Kazakh independence.
Jay
@Fake Irishman:
Ukraine dusted off their Cold War bunkers in 2014.
Their subway stations are a PITA, because they were dug deep to act as nuclear bunkers.
Kayla Rudbek
@Dan B: nothing advances technology like war…