We Are Coordinating with the Envoys of President Trump on the Schedule of Meetings – Our Documents Are, in Many Respects, Already Prepared for Signing – Address by the President

12 January 2026 – 20:45

I wish you health!

Today’s summary. There was a meeting with the negotiating team regarding all the outcomes of communication with the American team. The guys stay in contact essentially every day, and a lot has already been done. We are coordinating with the envoys of President Trump on the schedule of meetings – our documents are, in many respects, already prepared for signing. We expect that the Davos format this year will be sufficiently productive specifically in terms of our relations with partners and our recovery after Russian strikes. Now it is necessary for government officials to promptly analyze each of the documents on economic agreements so that all of Ukraine’s interests are fully taken into account. We are also working to create effective financing mechanisms for recovery – fair for Ukraine. Thank you to everyone who is helping us.

We understand that the American side is in constant contact with Russia, including regarding the basic document for ending the war. This is a political document, and we have outlined our vision – what can realistically work. And although the diplomacy of Ukraine, the United States, and our partners has been extraordinarily active over the past few months, the main question remains unanswered – and this question concerns Russia, and what they are ready for. Russia’s behavior and rhetoric in no way indicate that they want to end this war or are preparing for that. Everyone sees this. And it depends entirely on our partners – first and foremost on the United States and the President of the United States – what Russia will choose: peace or continued war. That is why all options for pressure on the aggressor must remain on the table – all pressure options.

We see how principled action can be taken against the shadow tanker fleet, as in the case with Venezuelan oil. When there is political will, oil flows can be stopped without any trouble for the global market. We also see that there are many tools to block those who evade sanctions or prop up marginal regimes. Russia must start trying all of this on for size now – if it refuses to move toward real peace. Especially since the circle of Russia’s accomplices is narrowing. And what is happening in Iran now – large-scale protests, in fact an uprising – is also a clear sign that things will not become easier for Russia. And every decent person in the world genuinely wants the people of Iran to finally have the fortune to free themselves from the regime in power there – one that has brought so much evil, including to Ukraine and other countries. It is important that the world does not miss this moment – when change is possible. And every leader, every country, and international organizations must now engage – to help the people remove those responsible for the fact that Iran, unfortunately, has been what it has been. Everything can be different.

Today, I had a good meeting with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Norway. Norway is one of our biggest supporters in defense. A leader in the PURL initiative, which allows us to purchase American weapons, primarily air defense systems. Norway has significantly helped us with air defense. We again discussed exactly these matters: the protection of the sky, our joint steps, our joint plans – both with Norway and with other partners in Europe. There is also a new support package from Norway – 400 million for energy and for Ukraine’s resilience. Eight billion in annual assistance from Norway. This is very tangible. Thank you!

And today I continued personnel changes – both in the regions and in the Security Service of Ukraine. There will be more decisions. We also just spoke with Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko about recovery and work in all regions. I thank everyone who is literally working for the sake of life. We agreed with the Prime Minister to develop a special program to support precisely these people – those who work directly in repair crews, 24/7, in the most difficult conditions. The government will propose ways to significantly increase the pay of such specialists for each month of winter. And please, make sure to pay attention to the air raid alerts. There is intelligence indicating that the Russians are preparing a new massive strike. Drones to deplete our air defenses, and missiles. They want to exploit the cold. This strike may occur in the coming days. Please take care of yourselves. Take care of Ukraine. And help those who are in the most difficult situation and who need support. Together, we will overcome everything.

Glory to Ukraine!

First Lady Zelenska was in Vienna today participating in a study group on barrier free environments at the state and municipal levels of government.

A Systemic Approach to a Barrier-Free Environment: Discussion Was Held on the Results of the Ukrainian Delegation’s Study Visit to Vienna

12 January 2026 – 18:11

First Lady of Ukraine Olena Zelenska took part in a meeting presenting the results of the Ukrainian delegation’s study visit to Vienna. Ukraine’s representatives examined how issues of a barrier-free environment are managed at both the state and municipal levels.

“During my visit to Vienna last year, we agreed to organize these trips, when I had the opportunity to see with my own eyes how systematically accessibility is built there. It was important for me to see that accessibility in this city works not ‘on request,’ but constantly – not in isolated pockets, but as a single system. Transportation, streets, institutions, and buildings are connected by a comfortable shared space. And people are united by barrier-free opportunities in meeting their needs. This is exactly the approach we strive for in Ukraine,” the First Lady emphasized.

The participants of the visit familiarized themselves with how accessibility processes are planned and implemented within European city systems. In particular, they studied accessible urban development, the experience of social enterprises that employ and train young people with disabilities, and career orientation systems developed for teenagers starting at age 15.

“This topic is especially important for Ukraine. Last year, my Foundation conducted a study called the Future Index. According to the results, only one-third of Ukrainian teenagers were able to say who they want to become. Yes, our children are growing up in wartime conditions, but we must help them envision the future and make plans, just like children do all over the world,” Olena Zelenska noted.

Within a month after returning, the members of the delegation worked in their respective communities to develop projects for changes in urban management, which will be implemented over the next six months. These projects were presented at today’s meeting.

Obligatory:

Georgia:

“The fight for Mzia’s freedom continues” – a march in support of Mzia Amaglobeli. On December 12, 2025, exactly one year ago, Mzia Amaglobeli was illegally arrested under criminal law.

#GeorgiaProtests
#TerrorinGeorgia

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 12:01 PM

A protest march is being held in Tbilisi today, exactly one year after the illegal detention of media manager Mzia Amaglobeli. Her brother, Malkhaz Amaglobeli, is participating in the march.

#GeorgiaProtests
#TerrorinGeorgia

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 11:46 AM

In Tbilisi, it’s the third day in a row that people gather in front of the Iranian Embassy to support the people of Iran. Iranians living in Georgia and Georgians are both there.

On January 14, the first day when executions are to take place,

1/2

📷 Dodie Kharkheli

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 11:51 AM

a larger rally at the Embassy was announced at 6 PM Tbilisi time.

The daily #GeorgiaProtests at Rustaveli is now also demonstrating support for Iranians, so we actually have two locations for #FreeIran.

2/2.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 11:51 AM

Iranians and their supporters continue to gather daily in front of the Iranian embassy in Tbilisi. Despite the protest being peaceful, police presence is heavy and protesters are kept on the opposite side of the street. #FreeIran

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 10:38 AM

This is the same dude who got confronted by a Georgian guy last year, on this very day — his birthday trip — in Abu Dhabi, later leading to his troubles in the Emirates and temporary detention.

Plan birthdays better next time, Irakli [Zarkua].

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 4:23 PM

Ooopsie!

France:

At this point, these are just thoughts.. but Trump gave them all the reasons to have these

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— Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) January 12, 2026 at 11:51 AM

The Nordic states:

“Nordic diplomats rejected Trump’s claims of Russian and Chinese vessels operating near Greenland, which he has invoked to justify his desire to seize the vast Arctic island from Denmark.

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 9:33 AM

Two top Nordic diplomats with access to Nato intelligence briefings said there were no signs of Russian and Chinese ships or submarines in recent years around Greenland. They are in the Arctic, yes, but on the Russian side.”

— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 9:33 AM

Moldova:

President of Moldova Maia Sandu stated that if there were a referendum on unification with Romania, she would vote yes because:

“It is getting more and more difficult for a small country like Moldova to survive as a democracy, as a sovereign country, and of course to resist Russia.”

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 12:35 PM

Larger countries might interpret this as a sign of weakness, yet to me it reflects her awareness of just how far russia is prepared to go to restore its empire.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 12:35 PM

Estonia:

Estonia has banned hundreds of Russian soldiers and militants involved in the war against Ukraine from entering the country, and is calling on other EU nations to create a “unified blacklist” within the Schengen Area.
news.err.ee/1609907773/e…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 10:59 AM

NATO:

NATO’s Rutte:

“We saw just last week the use of the Oreshnik missile on Lviv, and continued attacks on civilian and energy infrastructure.

​Russia is trying to deter us from supporting Ukraine, but we will not be deterred.”

We very much hope so! Thank you!

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 9:09 AM

Germany:

Rheinmetall will provide Ukraine with the first five Lynx KF41 IFVs, following a contract signed in December 2025. The first deliveries are planned for early 2026. The initial batch valued in the mid double-digit millions of euros, with funding provided by Germany.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 5:30 AM

Armenia:

“Russia is not your enemy,” they said. Aha.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 5:08 PM

The US:

Castelion has unveiled a new missile designed for HIMARS systems.

– The system is called Blackbeard GL — a low‑cost, mass‑produced missile with a range of up to 1,000 km.
– It features a homing warhead capable of striking moving targets.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 8:39 AM

– The missile is compatible with M142 HIMARS and M270 launchers.
– Development is expected to be completed by 2027.

Ukraine can offer free testing 😏
Loooots of testing! 😁

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 8:39 AM

Since the last time Trump spoke about cards, russia has lost 20% of its entire long‑range aviation fleet and lots of oil production capabilities.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 6:54 AM

Britain:

The reason this is being developed is so Europe doesn’t need to buy ATACMS. So well done Donald, you’ve screwed American business again.

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— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 8:49 AM

Back to Ukraine.

“Every time the international community believes that Russia has reached the limits of lies and barbarity, Moscow once again outdoes itself, finding the way to sink even lower and proving that there is no bottom to its criminal intent.” – Ambassador Andrii Melnyk

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 8:26 PM

Ukraine’s energy workers are thawing pipes completely frozen under layers of ice to restore heating to Ukrainian homes amid severe subzero temperatures.

Ordinary people performing miracles — while the world watches russian genocide unfold in real time.

This is despicable.

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 1:08 PM

Please help me to show these images widely.

russia doesn’t want peace. It wants to kill as many of us as it can.

— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 1:35 PM

Horseshit. I did that while you were being indicted. 😤

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— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 9:34 AM

This came from @kateinkharkiv.bsky.social. the SVR claim she gets mad when I don’t give credit as she has crush on Prez.

Can you really blame her?

— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 9:34 AM

Russian military are testing some unknown technology. By the looks of it, this is a portable, individual tent meant to protect infantry from winter weather during assaults. Apparently, Russian soldiers are expected to move forward while wearing this tent on themselves.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 12:08 PM

Russian ground robotic complexes eliminated by drone pilots of the 5th Assault Brigade.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 4:10 AM

Military communications expert “Flash” reports that cases of Shahed drones dropping PTM-3 mines are being documented in Ukraine. The drones are mining both specific areas and territories near their crash sites.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 7:43 AM

These mines are equipped with magnetic fuzes and are designed to target State Emergency Service or police vehicles. Furthermore, due to the snow, they are now invisible to the naked eye.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 7:43 AM

Makiivka, Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

Fire and detonation reported in occupied Makiivka 👀🔥

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 11:43 AM

Russian occupied Mariupol:

Something is on fire in occupied Mariupol

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 4:26 PM

Kharkiv:

More explosions in Kharkiv ‼️ too fast and too many to count. Russia is attacking our city with missiles 🚨

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 5:12 PM

Kharkiv is under russian attack right now ‼️

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 5:24 PM

Again explosion in Kharkiv ‼️ i lost count of how many times russia struck us tonight.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 6:52 PM

Local authorities report at least two people killed in tonight’s russian attack on Kharkiv ‼️

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 7:53 PM

Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast:

“Khartiia” has established control over the Kupiansk City Council building, with the Ukrainian flag already flying above it. The Defense Forces of Ukraine are completing the clearance of the city, according to the corps’ press service.
t.me/c/1477552474…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 4:56 PM

Yahidne, Chernihiv Oblast:

russian occupation is not peace. It’s taking the entire village hostage in the school basement, killing tens of fellow villagers by inhumane treatment and deprival of medical care.

We must not allow rewriting history especially as our wounds are still bleeding. #yahidne #makerussiapay

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 10:27 AM

Kyiv:

Fucking explosions in Kyiv again

— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 6:11 PM

It’s not like I had electricity for the past 2 days anyway

— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 6:11 PM

The Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk axes:

On 12 January 2025, strike drones destroyed three Russian air-defense assets on the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk axes:
• P-18 “Prima” radar
• Tor SAM system
• Tunguska SPAAG/SAM system

These were the 9th, 10th, and 11th enemy radar and air-defense assets destroyed between 1–12 January

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 8:38 AM

Odesa Oblast:

Russians are currently launching a massive drone attack on the Odesa region. Local social media channels report that a Shahed drone struck a vessel in the waters near Odesa. A massive fire broke out, which local residents spotted from the shore.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 11:29 AM

Dnipro:

The “Rubikon” center of Russia’s Ministry of Defense published UAV footage showing the attack on oil tankers in Dnipro on January 5.

The Shahed drones were equipped with video cameras transmitting live footage.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 8:15 AM

The Russians can see in real time where their guided drones are striking. In these cases, the UAVs were fitted either with Starlink, LTE modules, or used mesh networking if a group of drones was operating.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 8:15 AM

Rostov Oblast, Russia:

The Novocherkassk power plant in russia’s Rostov region is still burning after being attacked early this morning local time. 👀

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 9:23 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new Patron video!

@patron__dsns

Хто в якій команді? Оголошую перекличку в коментарях🐶🐱😄

♬ original sound – vicmram

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Who is in which team? I announce the roll call in the comments🐶🐱😄

Open thread!

The First Priority Is Air Defense Missiles. Tomorrow We Have a Meeting Where We Will Be Discussing This – Address by the President

11 January 2026 – 20:23

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Throughout the day, I received reports from Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko, our government officials, and the Office on the situation in the regions. Restoration efforts, electricity, and heating were the key topics.

There are communities where the situation, unfortunately, remains extremely difficult – particularly in parts of towns and villages in the border regions. In Kyiv, repair work is still ongoing after the strike that occurred the day before yesterday. The main task is to restore energy supply to all homes.

Nearly two hundred repair crews are also working in the Kyiv region, with active support from the State Emergency Service of Ukraine. Thank you. Brovary, Vasylkiv, Fastiv, Boryspil – the situation is most difficult there. Much has been done, but a significant number of families are still without electricity. Across the entire country, Points of Invincibility have been deployed in all regions, with the involvement of the capacities of Ukrzaliznytsia, Naftogaz, and other state companies.

Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Donetsk regions – everywhere our energy workers are on the ground right now, along with repair crews and all municipal services that are truly working, truly doing incredible and genuinely heroic things.

The harsh winter weather adds difficulties. That is why it is so hard. That is exactly the kind of weather the Russians are trying to exploit. I am grateful to everyone in Ukraine who – through repairs, through restoration, despite everything – is defending life.

I spoke with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, and first of all we discussed air defense and supplies from our partners – what is on the way, what is needed, which requests have still not been fulfilled, and what needs to be accelerated. The first priority is air defense missiles. In particular, tomorrow we have a meeting where we will be discussing this. New contributions from partners to the PURL initiative are needed, as well as deliveries from stockpiles in Europe: the missiles are there in the depots, and we know that, we know all of it – and they have to be in service with our air defenders.

Today, Rustem Umerov delivered a report on his communications with the American side. We are planning the schedule of meetings and further negotiations, and Ukraine is as constructive as possible and as fast as possible in this process. We are not dragging out time – unlike Russia. They have already dragged things out enough, to be honest. Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has now lasted as long as Nazi Germany’s war against the Soviet Union.

Today is the one thousand four hundred eighteenth day of Russia’s war against Ukraine. They wanted to repeat – and they repeated the abuse of people, repeated fascism, repeated almost all the worst things that happened in the twentieth century. They even additionally invented warfare with “shaheds” and ballistic missiles against power plants and boiler houses.

But still, the Russians are trying to seize the same Donbas as almost four years ago. They want to lie once again that they “took” Kupyansk. They keep dying endlessly in the fields of Zaporizhzhia region. And they are still fighting against Ukraine only – with all the help from our partners, it is only our people who are holding the front.

This speaks volumes about the system Putin has built, and about him personally. Right now, Russian losses amount to no less than 1,000 killed per day – and this has been the case since December. This is how Russia is essentially paying just to keep the war from ending.This is madness.

And this Russian madness can only be stopped by combined forces – the forces of Europe and the United States, the forces of all our partners. Every day of this war is a reminder that the world cannot protect itself from madmen. We must protect it. Russia must be stopped.

Thank you to everyone who stands with Ukraine! Thank you to everyone who helps our people, our defense, and our recovery! Thank you!

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Day 410 of daily, uninterrupted protests in Georgia. 🇬🇪

The crowd in front of Parliament on Rustaveli Avenue, and Dati, one of the strays who always attends the protests and often barks at oncoming traffic and police. 🐕

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 12:57 PM

I sometimes forget how beautiful the Georgian national anthem is — until protesters sing it in traditional polyphonic harmony.

Journalists and activists are gathered outside Rustavi women’s prison to mark one year since the illegal arrest of journalist Mzia Amaghlobeli.

🎥 Publika

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 1:12 PM

Day 410 of #GeorgiaProtests

Iranians living in 🇬🇪 recently joined the protests in a magnificent blend of international protest against dictatorship, and it’s been at least two days of such 🇬🇪-Iranian protests in Tbilisi.

I’m not crying, you’re crying.

#FreeIran #FreeGeorgia

📷 Levan Zazadze

1/2

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 1:48 PM

Before anyone starts pouring out shameless conspiracy theories, the American flag is there because at the daily protests in Georgia, we always have US, UK, Ukrainian, French, German, and other ally flags of Georgia.

2/2.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 1:48 PM

“The Iranian lion has awoken,” this Georgian protest banner says.

Day 410 of #GeorgiaProtests

📷 MOSE

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 1:48 PM

It has been a year since Mzia Amaghlobeli was arrested. This is footage of her first arrest. She was briefly released afterward, and soon after that came the slap and her arrest under the criminal code. For placing a sticker on a wall for a few seconds, she was fined about $700.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 6:18 AM

Lithuania:

OTD in 1991 January events in Vilnius began. They are part of our “peaceful withdrawal from our own territory of the USSR” which Lithuania had joined “on a contractual basis”.

14 died and 700+ injured “trying to stop is leaving” is how my tankies say it.

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— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 9:47 AM

We genuinely pretend as hard as we can we have no idea why so many of our former colonies want to join NATO cos we never whitewash this at all.

My Lithuanian fans might be comforted knowing those very tanks are probably rusting in Ukrainian field coated inside with Orc puree

— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 9:47 AM

Chechnya:

Kadyrov has suffered kidney failure, discussions are underway in Russia about a potential new head of Chechnya – a source in GUR for Ukrinform.

He is currently being treated at his private hospital in Chechnya. Members of his family clan (teip), including relatives from abroad, have gathered there.

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 10:50 AM

At the same time, the process of selecting a potential successor has intensified. Among the most likely candidates are Magomed Daudov, Apti Alaudinov, and Ramzan’s eldest son Akhmat.

— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 10:50 AM

From UKRINFORM:

According to Ukrinform, this was reported by a source in the Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

It is noted that due to kidney failure, Kadyrov is undergoing dialysis, and doctors are not giving any prognoses.

According to sources in the Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kadyrov is currently in his own hospital in Chechnya, where members of his family clan (teip) have gathered, including those from other countries.

Against the backdrop of Kadyrov’s poor health, the process of selecting a candidate for the position of the new leader of Chechnya has intensified.

Among the most likely and convenient candidates for the Kremlin are Magomed Daudov, Apti Alaudinov, and Ramzan’s eldest son, Akhmat Kadyrov.

Slovakia:

Slovakia will no longer provide military support to Ukraine or contribute to EU loan guarantees, President Pellegrini, PM Fico and Parliament Speaker Raši announced after meeting in Bratislava.

www.aktuality.sk/clanok/vQbXf…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 1:00 PM

Britain:

Interviewer: If you could kidnap one world leader, who would it be?

British Defense Secretary ​John Healey: Oh, I would take Putin into custody, hold him account for these war crimes, hold him account for what I saw in Bucha on one of my first visits to Ukraine, and for

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 6:24 AM

the abduction of some of the Ukrainian kids that I met in Irpin.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 6:24 AM

Back to Ukraine.

Ukraine fields 900,000 active troops, one of Europe’s largest armies. Together with NATO’s European members, they outnumber Russian forces more than two to one.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 7:49 AM

African mercenaries, some singing in Swahili, fighting for fascist Russia in Ukraine.

The war will continue to rise in intensity and expand in geography until the West provides Ukraine with sufficient military and economic support for it to be able to defeat fascist Russia.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 5:58 AM

«Here’s a gyroscope from Oreshnik. Yuri Gagarin flew with one of these.»

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 10:00 AM

The Oreshnik is primarily a psychological weapon aimed at the minds of Ukrainians and Western leaders.

It’s basically a variant of the RS-26, built on Soviet-era tech with a few modern bits bolted on, one less stage, and a reconfigured warhead.

In short, it’s Putin’s answer to Hitler’s V-2.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 5:28 AM

From Major General (ret) Mick Ryan’s Futura Doctrina:

The Oreshnik Attack. Both Ukrainian and Russian officials have now confirmed that Russia did indeed launch an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) strike against Lviv on the evening of 8-9 January 2026. It is only the second time the Russians have employed this missile during the war.

The Oreshnik missile has a range of up to 5,500 kilometres and can mount both single or multiple conventional and nuclear warheads. Travelling at speeds over 12,000 kilometres per hour, this is a missile which very few defence systems can intercept. The excellent Missile Matters Substack had a good feature on this missile back in November 2024, which you can read here. More recently, the United24 website also has an in-depth review of the missile and its capabilities, and that can be read at this link.

A central reason for the deployment of the Russian Oreshnik to Belarus, and its use against a civilian infrastructure target in Lviv, is to demonstrate that Russia remains a nuclear-armed, world power. In this guise, it is a psychological weapon – an instrument of Putin’s cognitive war against Ukraine and the West – rather than a weapon of mass physical destruction.

As I wrote earlier this week, Putin has had a bad couple of weeks in regard to Russia’s position in the world. The raid on Venezuela, which showed how little Russia was able help those it expressed support for, the boarding the Bella 1 in the Atlantic, the ongoing Ukrainian strikes against his oil and military infrastructure, and the gathering momentum behind a peace deal that does not favour Russia all combine to drive Putin to use the missile as a message to Washington and Europe. Whether the message is heard and heeded is another issue.

As a result of the strike, a UN Security Council meeting was called and this will be held on Monday, New York Time. Noting Russia is a member of the Security Council (and it is the UN after all), we should not hold our breaths for any significant outcome from this forum. The UN has done nothing to moderate Russia’s brutal behaviour in Ukraine for the past four years – why would it start now?

In the most recent update on this issue, President Trump finally made a comment about Russia in the wake of the Oreshnik attack. His stated the following:

Putin is not afraid of Europe. He’s afraid of the United States of America as led by me. There’s no fear of Europe.

This follows the clear messaging of the recent U.S. National Security Strategy on European defence and security and aligns with the Trump administrations’ growing library of anti-European narratives. It goes without saying, this is hardly the kind of rebuke for Putin’s use of the Oreshnik IRBM that should have been provided by Trump – or any American administration.

To wrap up this update on the Oreshnik strike against Lviv, I would like to reinforce my conclusions about the attack from my recent article on this topic:

The employment of an Oreshnik missile overnight against a target near Lviv makes enormous strategic sense to Putin. Their use is the sign of a fearful, worried leader and not one that is confident and anticipating victory. It is not the first time he has done so as part of Russia’s ongoing cognitive war against democracies. It is unlikely to be the last.

AASM Hammer air strike on Russian positions by the MiG-29

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 1:31 PM

Tempest air defense system with AGM-114 Hellfire missiles in service with the Ukrainian Air Force

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 8:33 AM

🐝STING interceptor drones have already shot down over 3000 Russian Shahed type drones!

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 6:25 AM

Photo reportedly shows Geran-5 wreckage. The drone has a new aerodynamic design but shares components with earlier models, including Kometa GPS, Raspberry tracker, and Telefly engine, and resembles Iran’s Karrar.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 5:08 AM

Kyiv:

Tonight in Kyiv, it’s −13°C. Some parts of the city have been without electricity for more than 60 hours after russian attacks.

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 5:58 PM

Ice on the inside of the entry door to our Babusya’s apartment block in Kyiv. The temperature is -12 C outside, and Russia is continuing to attack the Ukrainian capital’s energy infrastructure with drones. The latest air raid ended about an hour ago.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 12:07 PM

Kyiv my beloved

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— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 5:36 PM

Mind you it’s -15 Celsius

— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 5:41 PM

Chernihiv:

📍Chernihiv Oblast

Russia struck an ambulance with a drone. Two medics were injured.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 4:40 PM

Kharkiv:

In Kharkiv eescue operations concluded after russian strike on January 2.

Russian forces struck the city center, destroying a commercial building and part of an apartment block. Rescuers, police, and volunteers saved 12 people.

The search lasted over eight days. 2 bodies and remains of 5 more

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 6:32 AM

victims were recovered from the rubble.
One of the bodies was of 3-year-old boy.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 6:32 AM

The Dnipro River, Kherson Oblast:

Landing boats with Russian infantrymen destroyed by drones in Dnipro River, not far from Kherson.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 4:12 PM

Zmiinyi Island:

Ukrainian border guards released rare winter footage of Zmiinyi Island. Russia seized it in February 2022, Ukraine took it back in June 2022.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 10:21 AM

Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

Magyar’s unit struck three energy infrastructure sites in occupied Donetsk region on January 9. Ukrainian analysts identified likely targets as Zoria substation, Volnovakha traction power station, and possibly Pivdenna substation.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 3:11 AM

Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast:

Russian troops tried storming northern Pokrovsk, but over 20 were hit while trying to hide in buildings, Ukraine’s 7th Airborne Corps reports.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 2:35 AM

The Caspian Sea:

🔥🛢️Special Operations Forces struck three offshore drilling platforms in the Caspian Sea.

On the night of January 11, 2026, SOF hit Lukoil platforms in the Caspian Sea. The targets were the Filanovsky, Korchagin, and Grayfer ice-resistant fixed platforms, used to supply fuel to the enemy’s military.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 9:36 AM

Volgograd Oblast, Russia:

Oil depot in Oktyabrsky, Volgograd region of russia is still on fire 🔥

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 7:25 AM

Rostov Oblast, Russia:

Fire reported in Rostov region, cause unknown. Russian channels earlier warned of air threats across southern Russia. Air raid alerts now sounding in occupied Crimea.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 3:33 PM

Moscow:

ATESH reports striking an air defense site in Moscow region, taking out a communications tower of Russia’s 5th AD division.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 11, 2026 at 8:29 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

This is Mikhail, a retiree in Kharkiv who helps animals. He has 20 cats here (and 1 dog), all found in the street—some hit by cars, others displaced by war. He cares for 50 more cats who live in basements outside. The Hachiko team is making sure he has food & medicine for them!

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— Nate Mook (@natemook.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 10:48 PM

Open thread!

The War Must Be Brought to an End; This Requires Pressuring Russia – Address by the President

10 January 2026 – 17:31

I wish you good health!

Briefly about this day. I received a briefing from the Security Service of Ukraine – from Yevhenii Khmara. He leads many of our operations. That is exactly what we discussed: the operations that have taken place recently. The Security Service of Ukraine is working effectively – I want to thank all SSU operatives and special forces personnel for this. It is still too early to speak publicly about some of the operations – ones that the Russians have already felt. Some of the operations are still underway. I also approved new ones. We are actively defending ourselves, and every Russian loss brings the end of the war closer. Our deep strikes, special measures – all of this, of course, must continue.

I also spoke with Kyrylo Budanov – including about the sanctions policy. Last year, with many partners, we established a new cooperation to synchronize sanctions, but the pace must be higher, much higher. Russian production of missiles and drones cannot exist without supplies of components from other countries. And this applies not just to some individual Russian-made items, but to all Russian weapons. This is weaponry built on components that Russia does not produce itself. That is why blocking supplies and expanding sanctions is one of our key priorities. And it must also be a priority for our partners. Our institutions must work on this more actively. Budanov also reported on part of the meetings within the diplomatic track. I am expecting a full, detailed report from the entire negotiating team. And we continue communication with the American side practically every day. Today, Rustem Umerov once again reached out to our American partners. This is our strategic task: dialogue with the United States must be one hundred percent constructive. Ukraine has never been and never will be an obstacle to diplomacy, and our effectiveness in working with partners has always been at the highest level. And it will remain so. Only Russia is the source of this war, the reason the war is being dragged out, and it deserves all retaliatory strikes and pressure for everything it does against life and people, against diplomacy, against partners. We carefully monitor and document every attempt by the Russians to undermine our relations with partners. We see which lobbyists Moscow is engaging, through whom it is trying to act, which internal operations it is attempting to launch in Ukraine and in Europe. Our response will be tangible – through our special services, through our intelligence agencies, through political cooperation with our partners, and, in particular, through sanctions. What is important is that the U.S. Congress is back in motion on tougher sanctions against Russia – targeting Russian oil. This can truly work. I thank everyone who is helping.

Today, I want to recognize our warriors – every single one, who, despite everything – despite constant strikes, Russian assaults, despite this entire harsh, cold winter – are defending our positions and destroying the occupier. The Pokrovsk direction – the warriors of the 38th Marine Brigade, the 425th Separate Assault Regiment, the 414th Unmanned Systems Brigade “Magyar’s Birds,” and the 14th Brigade of Operational Assignment of the National Guard “Chervona Kalyna.” Thank you! The Kramatorsk direction – first and foremost, the warriors of the 24th Mechanized Brigade. Thank you! The Kupyansk direction – the 43rd Mechanized Brigade and the 13th Khartiia Brigade of the National Guard. Thank you! Also in our Kharkiv region, the warriors of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade deserve special thanks. Well done, warriors! Huliaipole – the 5th Assault Brigade, the 1st and the 225th Assault Regiments. Thank you! I thank everyone who is fighting for Ukraine!

There was a briefing today from Mykhailo Fedorov, essentially on our defense plan – we discussed strategic matters. I expect that, next week, parliamentarians will support Mykhailo for the position of Minister of Defense of Ukraine. We have an action plan for the defense sector. Just as we do for diplomacy. And it depends solely on our partners’ resolve – which plan will take priority for the year. The war must be brought to an end. This requires pressuring Russia. Those who speak the language of ballistics and “shaheds” understand nothing but force. We are working to ensure the world acts effectively.

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

People on Twitter/X: Georgia has given up.

Georgians on day 409 of daily, uninterrupted protests:

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 11:19 AM

Saturday is the day of the protest march in Tbilisi.

#GeorgiaProtests
Day 409

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 5:09 PM

It’s Day 409 of #GeorgiaProtests

People endure to keep it going, to prevent the dictatorship from stabilizing and normalizing itself socially, and they also prepare solid grounds for the next spark major that will inevitably come.

📷 Merab Metreveli

1/2

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 11:54 AM

P.S. Please don’t compare it to Iran, decades-long economic hardships and difficulty for Iranians to move abroad make it very different. And I’m sure there are some long-running cultural differences too.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 11:54 AM

📷 Lasha Janjghava #GeorgiaProtests Day 409

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 12:41 PM

Day 409 of daily, uninterrupted protests in Georgia.

Our weekly march, “the regime is poisoning us”, referring to the #theCamiteCase.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 11:11 AM

“Our victory against the regime is inevitable.”

Day 409 of daily, nonstop protests in 8+ cities across Georgia. This is Tbilisi.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 11:41 AM

A small demonstration took place today in Tbilisi, Georgia, in front of the Iranian embassy, in solidarity with the Iranian people.

It seems that one of the protesters later joined the weekly march on Rustaveli Ave, carrying a small Iranian flag. #FreeIran

📷 Lasha Janjghava

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 1:49 PM

Georgians stand with the people of Iran.

Everyone but the regime pillars, that is.

Day 409 of #GeorgiaProtests

#FreeIran #FreeGeorgia

📷 MOSE

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 3:07 PM

🇮🇷🇬🇪Over the past two years, Georgia’s ruling party Georgian Dream has quietly deepened ties with Iran. Not rhetorically. Practically. Through trade, business access, and political signaling that matters far more than speeches.
1/9

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— Terje Helland (@terjehelland.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 5:13 AM

While Iran faces heavy international sanctions, Georgia has emerged as a low-friction gateway: company registrations, banking access, logistics, and regional transit. This is not accidental. It is policy enabled by political choice.
2/9

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— Terje Helland (@terjehelland.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 5:13 AM

Thousands of Iranian-linked businesses are now registered in Georgia. Trade volumes are up. Air links operate. Financial and commercial channels remain unusually permissive for a country formally aligned with the West.
3/9

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— Terje Helland (@terjehelland.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 5:13 AM

This matters because sanctions are not just about borders. They are about ecosystems. Georgian Dream has helped create one where Iranian capital and networks can breathe, move, and adapt under pressure.
4/9

— Terje Helland (@terjehelland.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 5:13 AM

At the same time, Tbilisi’s relations with the EU and the US have deteriorated. Democratic backsliding at home has been paired with geopolitical hedging abroad.
Iran is not an outlier. Alongside their other partners Russia🇷🇺 and China🇨🇳, it fits a clear pattern.
5/9

— Terje Helland (@terjehelland.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 5:13 AM

Let’s be clear: this is not neutrality. It is alignment by facilitation. When an authoritarian regime under sanctions finds operational space, the host enabling that space becomes part of the system.
6/9

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— Terje Helland (@terjehelland.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 5:13 AM

Now comes the turning point. If Iran’s popular uprising succeeds, this entire architecture collapses. The regime Georgian Dream has supported will lose power, legitimacy, and its offshore enablers.
7/9

— Terje Helland (@terjehelland.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 5:13 AM

Georgia will then face an uncomfortable question:
Why was a country aspiring to Europe so deeply embedded in sustaining one of the world’s most sanctioned regimes?
History has a way of auditing these choices. Georgian Dream must be replaced soon.
8/9

— Terje Helland (@terjehelland.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 5:13 AM

☕️ If you value my threads, please consider supporting my work at buymeacoffee.com/terjehelland.
Your support helps me continue informing and engaging on Georgia’s fight for democracy.
Thank you!
9/9

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— Terje Helland (@terjehelland.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 5:13 AM

A reminder that the current backbone of the Georgian economy is illicit or outright criminal international schemes that are part of the Autocracy, Inc.

All thanks to the Georgian Dream.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 6:49 AM

More on this👇🏻

bsky.app/profile/ceia…

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 6:51 AM

Georgia fined and released the Panama-flagged tanker Caminero after detaining it for navigation violations. The vessel previously sailed under Russian flag, Georgian border police said.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 12:55 PM

Way too many people sound like this: “I’d rather have an endless civil war / regime repression and mounting death toll in a country than a quick and much less painful external intervention, because sovereignty.”

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 4:44 PM

Finland:

Finland has officially withdrawn from the Ottawa Convention banning anti-personnel mines, following the lead of other Eastern European countries.

Not much choice when your neighbor is a genocidal horde…

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 11:05 AM

This is solely so that Finland can mine the possible/probable Russian approaches.

Britain:

Back to Ukraine.

❤️🩹 Ukrainian energy workers restore electricity after Russian attacks.

This isn’t just infrastructure work. This is resilience under fire. This is people choosing duty over fear, exhaustion, and cold.

We thank every single one of them for bringing the light back💡

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 5:52 PM

Winter conditions make tracking easier, as footprints in the snow clearly reveal enemy movement routes.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 3:39 AM

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha called on the international community to increase pressure on Iran, linking Tehran’s support for Russia’s war with its domestic repression.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 1:40 PM

Another video from Ukrainian marines shows two Russian boats destroyed and eight occupiers who also thought the reeds would save them.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 9:52 AM

Robert ‘Magyar’ Brovdi has released new footage of Unmanned Systems Forces drones striking Russian positions and equipment.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 8:35 AM

Today, in response to attacks that took out power & heat, Ukrainian Railways deployed 7 of our Invincibility Train Cars. 2 more will be active tomorrow. I hate that these are needed, but I’m glad we are able to provide some warmth, phone charging & a safe place for kids to go. 🇺🇦

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— Nate Mook (@natemook.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 12:09 PM

Kyiv:

Blackout in Kyiv. Our capital, a multimillion‑person metropolis, has been plunged into darkness amidst the freezing cold. It is a humanitarian disaster caused by russia.

📸: Yan Dobronosov

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 1:08 PM

Kyiv in darkness.

Not broken.
Not defeated.

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 5:31 PM

Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast:

On the afternoon of January 10, russian forces attacked the city of Lozova in Kharkiv region with at least 14 drones, Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office reported.

As a result of the attack, a 38-year-old man was injured, and infrastructure facility was damaged.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 11:13 AM

Kharkiv:

Allegedly, for the first time during the war, air defense shot down a ballistic missile flying towards Kharkiv.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 10:10 AM

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast:

Russia struck Dnipropetrovsk region today. A 68‑year‑old man was killed, while three others: men aged 79 and 86, and an 87‑year‑old woman, were wounded.

Attack on the elderly is the lowest. Terrorists.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 1:01 PM

Sumy Oblast:

Ukrainian Defenders of the 15th Steel Border Mobile Border Guard Detachment,”Korea”&”Pastor,”held positions in the Sumy region for 131 & 94 days without rotation,respectively.Together,they repelled 6 massive assaults.In December,”Korea” sustained a gunshot wound but decided to remain at the position

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— Anton Gerashchenko (@antongerashchenko.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 1:43 PM

Russia:

🚨Turning point: Russia is cutting oil production.

As oil prices drop to a net loss per barrel and some remains unsold, production is being cut and output is now 250k barrels a day below Russia’s OPEC+ quota.

Restarting a stopped oil well is expensive, and sometimes impossible.

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 7:42 AM

Footage shows morning drone attack on southern Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 4:15 AM

Volgograd Oblast, Russia:

Oktyabrsky, Volgograd region of russia. Oil depot 🔥

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 12:19 PM

Photos show the Zhutovskaya oil depot burning in Russia’s Volgograd region.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 11:37 AM

Voronezh Oblast, Russia:

Ukrainian drones currently striking Voronezh, Russia.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 1:47 PM

Belgorod Oblast, Russia:

More than half a million residents of Russia’s Belgorod region remain without electricity, heat or water after a Ukrainian attack, local authorities say.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 11:16 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

Today,volunteer Ruslana Kulbida evacuated 11 animals from Dnipropetrovsk region. Most of them were taken to shelter.One dog is in critical condition -veterinarians are fighting for her life right now, UAnimals shared

Also volunteers from evacuated 27 cats from Zaporizhzhia region

📷UAnimalsENG

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— Anton Gerashchenko (@antongerashchenko.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 2:06 PM

Open thread!

The Russians Are Exploiting the Weather – The Cold Snap – Trying to Hit as Many of Our Energy Facilities as Possible – Address by the President

9 January 2026 – 19:19

Dear Ukrainians!

Restoration efforts are currently underway in our cities and our communities – in Kyiv and the region, in the Dnipro, Lviv, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, and Odesa regions. Repair crews are almost constantly working in the Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv regions. Maximum forces are deployed to restore vital services. The Russians are exploiting the weather – the cold snap – trying to hit as many of our energy facilities as possible. So much for their respect for America and all diplomacy. Last night, over 200 Russian drones were launched, as well as a significant number of ballistic missiles, primarily targeting Kyiv. Four people were killed – my condolences to their families. Nearly thirty were wounded. Prior to that, there were strikes on Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia. And before that – Odesa. The main Russian tactic is to try to completely shut cities down. It is crucial that every city administration understands this goal, the goal of the enemy, and prepares for full counteraction, for actual work for the benefit of citizens. The focus should not be on avoiding problems but on solving them, especially when the resources exist to do so – as in Kyiv. It is the best-financed city in Ukraine, and all necessary backup systems must be in place.

Today, I held a special energy meeting with military officials, government representatives, and specialized services to discuss the details of protecting energy facilities and the necessary decisions. Diplomats must be as active as possible – through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and informal diplomatic channels.

Oreshnik was used again – this time against the Lviv region. Once again, it was pointedly close to the borders of the European Union. And in terms of using medium-range ballistic missiles, this poses the same challenge for all: Warsaw, Bucharest, Budapest, and many other capitals as well. Everyone needs to see this in the same way and with the same seriousness: if the Russians aren’t even bothering to come up with a plausible excuse for using such weapons, then no personal connections and no rhetoric will protect anyone from this. What is needed is a system of joint action, a system of collective defense – one that truly works. Does such a system exist now? That’s an open question, because across Europe there is the same doubt – whether their capital would be defended if Putin suddenly lost it.

Today, I received a detailed military briefing from the Commander-in-Chief and the Chief of the General Staff, including on work with partners in recent days on security guarantees. The documents are largely finalized. But the essence of these documents – their strength – lies in ensuring confidence that the guarantees will work. This can only be truly seen if protection is also operational right now. Timely delivery of air-defense systems. Timely delivery of equipment for our resilience and our energy infrastructure. Timely provision of financial support for Ukraine – for our defense and our stability. There are many details, and each one must be worked through now in a way that ensures confidence for tomorrow.

I also want to thank all our people involved in responding to the aftermath of the strikes. This is truly heroic work. In hours, people accomplish what in other countries can take days or weeks. The important thing is that help is available everywhere, repairs are happening everywhere, and maximum effort is being made to restore electricity and heating to the people. I have tasked government officials with communicating as fully as possible what will be done and within what timeframe. I thank everyone who is helping! I thank everyone who supports our people. I thank all the leaders who have not stayed silent and who are standing with us, with Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Somewhere in residential Tbilisi.

🇬🇪🇪🇺🇺🇦🇺🇸

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 9:33 AM

From Goga Khachidze’s Facebook profile

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 9:33 AM

1/ Dream is threatening to arrest a citizen for protesting on the pavement. A judge ruled that Giorgi Tsulaia’s administrative case “constitutes violations under the Criminal Code,” and it has now been transferred to the MIA.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 8:24 AM

2/ Giorgi Tsulaia had already been deemed to have “violated” the law once for blocking the road. Under GD’s new repressive laws, a second administrative violation, such as alleged obstruction of pavements, triggers criminal liability and can result in up to one year in prison.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 8:24 AM

3/ GD is using these laws as a tool of repression against protesters.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 8:24 AM

Georgia 2008 was not an exception. It was a rehearsal. Weak Western responses taught Moscow that calibrated aggression works. Ukraine confirmed it. The Baltics know the next test comes if Russia is not stopped decisively now. Deterrence must be credible or it fails. politicsgeo.com/europes-unfi…

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— gvineria.bsky.social (@gvineria.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 10:57 PM

From Geopolitics:

Vladimir Putin’s frustration with Russia’s setbacks in Ukraine has not overshadowed his long-standing interest in undermining NATO’s cohesion. On the contrary, there are growing concerns that this may now be the moment Moscow finds suitable for a limited, ambiguous hostile act against a NATO member, designed to probe whether the Alliance would respond collectively. Such an operation could involve a small-scale, deniable military incident or a multi-domain provocation that generates sufficient violence and confusion to constitute an armed attack while preserving plausible deniability.

Yet Allied assessments of the likelihood that Russia will pursue such a course vary widely. In the Baltic states, policymakers and society treat the possibility of Russian aggression as high and actively prepare for it, discussing these risks openly in daily life. However, in much of southern and western Europe, the idea that Russia might attack a NATO country is viewed as unrealistic or overstated.

Only a clear Russian defeat in Ukraine can prevent further aggression in Europe. 

Whether Russia might attempt to strike a NATO member to test the Alliance’s credibility, and what would guide the Kremlin’s calculus in deciding whether such a move is worth the risks, remain open questions. What shapes Putin’s assessment of escalation and de-escalation remains one of the most contested debates in global security today. Some argue that accommodating Russia’s demands in Ukraine will satisfy Putin’s ambitions and turn him into a constructive player. Others maintain that only a clear Russian defeat in Ukraine can prevent further aggression in Europe.

The answer depends on which European and transatlantic decision-making structures are prepared to recognize that such an attack would require a decisive response. If analysts focus only on conventional invasions or missile strikes on European capitals, escalation by Russia may appear irrational at this moment. But if the attack scenario involves cross-domain pressure, calibrated ambiguity, and gradual escalation toward a military incident, the outcome instead depends on the clarity of Allied red lines, the strength of military and civil preparedness, the resilience of societies under psychological pressure, and the extent to which Europe completes its unfinished security architecture before the next security shock arrives.

We should, therefore, turn to recent history, beginning with Russia’s 2008 war against Georgia and its successive acts of aggression against Ukraine since 2014, as cases where deterrence failed to prevent the use of force and contrast them with the Baltic states, where deterrence has held so far. Taken together, these cases crystallize a central puzzle. Why did the Kremlin judge that it could attack Georgia and later Ukraine, yet refrain from similar action against Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania? If deterrence has worked in the Baltics to date, what has changed in the strategic and political environment that fuels growing fears of a possible Russian move against them?

The question is not only what Russia might do next, but what kind of European and transatlantic architecture will confront that challenge.

Europe’s eastern flank is entering a strategic turning point. Russian aggression, both military and hybrid, has forced front-line states to reconsider whether deterrence by punishment alone can still guarantee security, or whether the region now requires sustained, defense-centered deterrence by denial. The question is not only what Russia might do next, but what kind of European and transatlantic architecture will confront that challenge. Europe clearly needs readiness and resolve, yet the design of its future security structure remains unresolved.

At the heart of this problem lies a deep strategic uncertainty. Every sound strategy rests on explicit and shared assumptions. In the European case, many of the most basic assumptions remain contested or undefined. Will the United States remain the central security guarantor for Europe in the coming decade? If yes, in what form and with what political and military commitments? If not, who will shape the new European security architecture and how? What exactly does European defense mean in institutional terms? Does it encompass only the European Union and its member states, or does it also include the United Kingdom and other non-EU Allies within a broader constellation of actors? Who is setting the principles and institutional frameworks of this emerging architecture, at which decision-making tables, and through which political processes?

As Russian aggression continues to evolve, front-line states must decide whether or not to rely primarily on the threat of overwhelming retaliation or to invest much more heavily in deterrence by denial; that is, in making their territories and societies extremely difficult to coerce or subdue. The answer depends on the interaction of military capability, political signaling, societal resilience, and alliance cohesion. To understand how these elements come together in practice, we should first examine the evolving posture in the Baltic region and the debate on European strategic autonomy within the broader Euro Atlantic framework; second, we can turn to the case of Georgia and ask what the failures of deterrence in 2008 can tell us about current vulnerabilities and options for Ukraine, the Baltic Sea region and for Europe as a whole.

Debates about the Baltic posture now unfold inside a transforming transatlantic context. The new United States National Security Strategy and the surrounding commentary mark a clear shift in how Washington conceives alliances. Clearly visible is the emphasis on sovereign power as the central organizing principle of foreign policy, and a deliberate reframing of Europe away from its long-standing supranational political project, up to and including an explicit disregard for or marginalization of the European Union as a strategic actor. These elements reveal a multilateral worldview centered on sovereign nation-states and transactional bilateralism, consciously detached from the normative and institutional frameworks that previously underpinned the liberal international order. For European allies, especially those on the eastern flank, this raises a fundamental problem. They can no longer assume that the United States’ power will automatically anchor deterrence in the Baltic region as before.

If Russia can stabilize the front in Ukraine on terms it deems acceptable and then return a reconstituted, battle-tested army to the eastern flank, the risk picture for the Baltic region will look very different from the assumption that Russia is too weak to threaten NATO territory.

At the same time, Russia is not a static or permanently weakened actor. The war in Ukraine has imposed severe costs but has also driven a large-scale mobilization of resources and the militarization of the economy. The Russian budget for 2025 envisioned military spending accounting for approximately 40% of total state expenditure, a historically high level. The same 40% is true for the 2026 state budget. Most assessments suggest that Moscow intends to rebuild and modernize its armed forces by 2030, drawing on combat experience, large-scale production of drones and missiles, and lessons from high-intensity warfare. If Russia can stabilize the front in Ukraine on terms it deems acceptable and then return a reconstituted, battle-tested army to the eastern flank, the risk picture for the Baltic region will look very different from the assumption that Russia is too weak to threaten NATO territory.

These trends intersect with an ambitious but still incomplete European adaptation. The White Paper for European Defense and the Readiness Roadmap 2030 outline plans to move the European pillar from chronic underinvestment to a posture of genuine readiness. The White Paper presents a once-in-a-generation surge in defense investment under the ReArm Europe plan, aimed at closing critical capability gaps, rebuilding ammunition stocks, and establishing a strong and sufficient European defense posture by 2030, explicitly linked to support for Ukraine and the credibility of the transatlantic bargain. The Readiness Roadmap translates this into concrete flagship projects, such as the Eastern Flank Watch, the European Drone Defense Initiative, the European Air Shield, and the European Space Shield, all intended to strengthen situational awareness, air and missile defense, and the resilience of critical infrastructure, with particular relevance for the Baltic region.

Yet, these documents also expose the central dilemma of European strategic autonomy. If the United States remains engaged in Europe with substantial conventional and nuclear forces, these initiatives reinforce NATO and provide better burden sharing. If the United States’ conventional presence is reduced or redirected, the same initiatives would have to serve as substitutes, at least in part, for the United States’ strategic capabilities. That would mean Europeans not only spending more on national forces, but also assuming responsibility for long-range strikes, high-end air power, strategic transport, theatre missile defense, large-scale command and control, and the industrial base required to sustain a prolonged crisis in the Baltic area.

For the Baltic states, the practical question, therefore, is not abstract support for “more Europe” but whether the evolving European architecture can produce real capabilities, credible planning, and timely decision-making. The new roadmaps and white papers show that Brussels recognizes the scale of the challenge and is trying to inject coherence into defense industrial policy, procurement, and readiness. At the same time, foreign and security policy inside the European Union remains largely consensus-based with complex procedures and national veto points. As the failed deterrence in Georgia and Ukraine demonstrates, in a cross-domain crisis involving calibrated Russian pressure against the Baltic region, when the aggressor moves at lightning speed, slow and contested decision-making would itself become a major vulnerability.

These variables and uncertainties compel the Baltic states to invest all available resources in comprehensive defense strategies that extend beyond traditional military planning. In addition to strengthening hard capabilities, Baltic governments are developing programs that integrate societal preparedness into national defense. This involves preparing societies to defend their countries if necessary, communicating existing threats clearly so that public opinion is adequately informed and fostering citizen willingness to support sustained investment in defense arrangements. A recent example of this approach is Latvia’s ambition to become a drone powerhouse in Europe. The initiative aims not only to expand national and regional unmanned aerial capabilities but also to develop education, industrial partnerships, workforce training, and civic engagement in technology and defense innovation. This reflects a broader understanding that modern deterrence and defense require both advanced capabilities and resilient societies prepared to respond collectively to an increasingly complex security environment.

The debate about a European army functions as a proxy for deeper questions rather than as an immediate institutional project. A fully unified army would require pooling sovereignty over the use of force to a degree that few member states currently accept, even on the frontline.

In this setting, the debate about a European army functions as a proxy for deeper questions rather than as an immediate institutional project. A fully unified army would require pooling sovereignty over the use of force to a degree that few member states currently accept, even on the frontline. In practice, given the scarcity of material and human resources, the likely path for the Baltic region is more incremental and more hybrid. It will rely on denser integration of national forces, framework nation concepts, forward-deployed units, and joint projects funded through European instruments, all nested within NATO planning. Whether this will be enough to deter a Russia that has rebuilt its forces and faces a more fragmented NATO and a transactional United States is precisely the uncertainty that raises the stakes and motivates a comparison with the cases of Georgia and Ukraine.

For Georgia, it marked a painful demonstration that political assurances without clear and credible guarantees do not deter a determined adversary.

The war between Russia and Georgia in August 2008 was the first major test for Western deterrence and resolve after the Cold War and it revealed how quickly uncertainty, indecision, and unpreparedness can be turned into an opportunity for aggression. For Moscow, the conflict demonstrated that a calibrated use of force could alter borders, establish new facts on the ground, and still avoid a decisive Western military response. For Georgia, it marked a painful demonstration that political assurances without clear and credible guarantees do not deter a determined adversary.

The August war did not appear out of nowhere. It arose from a prolonged period of tension over the Tskhinvali Region/South Ossetia and Abkhazia, combined with Russia’s growing discomfort with Georgia’s westward orientation. In the months before the conflict, Russia increased its presence in and around the separatist regions, conducted large exercises close to Georgian territory, and used strong rhetoric to frame Tbilisi as the source of instability.

A central turning point was the NATO summit in Bucharest in April 2008. Allies agreed that Georgia and Ukraine would become members in the future, but could not agree on a Membership Action Plan. The result was an ambiguous formula that signaled political support while withholding a concrete path or security guarantees. From Moscow’s perspective, this mixture of promises and hesitation suggested that Georgia was important enough to provoke political debate, but not important enough to trigger a firm and unified response if Russia used force. That impression, combined with unresolved conflicts on the ground, limited Georgian military capacity, and total absence of societal mobilization and engagement practices, encouraged the belief that a short, sharp intervention would be manageable.

The fighting lasted only a few days, yet the strategic effects have been long-lasting. Russian forces pushed Georgian units out of the Tskhinvali Region/South Ossetia, advanced into other parts of Georgia, and paralyzed key elements of its defense infrastructure. Shortly after the ceasefire, Russia recognized Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali Region/South Ossetia as independent states and entrenched its military presence there. For Georgia, this meant a permanent loss of control over parts of its territory and a constant security pressure along new dividing lines.

The message the Kremlin received was loud and clear: limited use of force, combined with psychological warfare and sowing uncertainty through strong narratives about protecting compatriots and restoring order, could reshape the security environment without provoking a united and decisive response from the Euro-Atlantic community.

Equally important were the political signals. The absence of any meaningful response from NATO and the European Union confirmed to Moscow that the costs of this operation would remain limited. Western governments condemned the intervention and launched symbolic diplomatic and economic measures. Still, the basic structure of the European security order insulated this clear act of military aggression as an isolated incident between the two neighbors. Butthe message the Kremlin received was loud and clear: limited use of force, combined with psychological warfare and sowing uncertainty through strong narratives about protecting compatriots and restoring order, could reshape the security environment without provoking a united and decisive response from the Euro-Atlantic community.

More at the link.

Britain:

British Defense Secretary, John Healey, speaking from Ukraine:

​”Putin talks about peace, but he’s stepping up and escalating his attacks. Not just attacks on the Ukrainian military, but on civilians and cities like this.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 1:53 PM

And there were 90 Shahed drones attacking Kyiv last night, many with targets at residential buildings like this. It’s brutal, it’s cynical, it’s exactly why we’ve got to work so hard to help Ukraine secure peace.”

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 1:53 PM

Ukraine and the UK have signed a 2026 defence partnership roadmap during British Defence Secretary John Healey’s visit to Kyiv, implementing the earlier agreement on a 100-year security partnership.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 8:42 AM

The US:

Witkoff and Kushner met with Dmitriev Wednesday to discuss the US peace plan, and the US wanted a clear response on it from Putin.

Last night, another war crime: the Russians killed a medic in a double-tap strike on a Kyiv residential high-rise.

Is that response clear enough??

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 2:02 AM

When asked whether he could ever order the capture of Vladimir Putin, Trump said he doesn’t think that will be necessary.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 4:01 PM

Shot:

Ukraine awarded major lithium project to investors with links to Trump.
Ronald S. Lauder, a billionaire friend of President Trump is among the investors. Decision, made by UA gov commission, has to be approved by cabinet of ministers, but the deal is “essentially sealed”, per sources within UA gov.

— Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) January 9, 2026 at 9:58 AM

As long as the “prosperity agreement” includes no more invasions.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 3:40 PM

Chaser:

Russia rejects Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Ukraine.

I wish ppl would understand the catch-22: by offering “guarantees” (that aren’t guaranteeing anything based on what we see being done with the Budapest memorandum), they decrease the chances of Putin accepting it. They should know it, too.

— Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) January 9, 2026 at 10:11 AM

Saying this without judging religions or ideological beliefs as such, I find a dark amusement in watching millions who claim to be devout Christians and defenders of traditional family values cheer for the death of a woman, strip protections from the needy, separate families, and celebrate wars

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 7:31 AM

Italy:

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— Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) January 9, 2026 at 9:42 AM

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— Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) January 9, 2026 at 1:10 PM

The EU:

Putin doesn’t want peace, Russia’s reply to diplomacy is more missiles and destruction. This deadly pattern of recurring major Russian strikes will repeat itself until we help Ukraine break it. (1/3)

— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 5:33 AM

Russia’s reported use of an Oreshnik missile is a clear escalation against Ukraine and meant as a warning to Europe and to the US. (2/3)

— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 5:33 AM

EU countries must dig deeper into their air-defence stocks and deliver now. We must also further raise the cost of this war for Moscow, including through tougher sanctions. (3/3)

— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 5:34 AM

Back to Ukraine.

As we’ve used them again to murder a bunch of civilians, what odds are we giving that at some stage someone involved in design & manufacture of our Oreshnik missiles suffers a tragic Semtex related accident?

— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 6:21 AM

Rest in piss.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 10:44 AM

A giant neutralized Russian ‘turtle tank’ along with its crew.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 7:12 PM

African mercenary Francis, who for some reason chose to fight in the Russian army, has suddenly “upgraded” from infantryman to disposable kamikaze.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 10:31 AM

Ukraine carried out at least 73 strikes on 28 Russian oil refining facilities in 2025, Forbes reported. The targeted plants have a combined capacity of about 219 million tons of oil per year, roughly two-thirds of Russia’s total refining.

forbes.ua/war-in-ukrai…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 1:29 PM

From February, Ukraine will produce 1,000 Octopus interceptor drones per month, Defence Minister Denys Shmyhal said.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 8:46 AM

Test flight of the Razor P100 VTOL drone from US company Mayman Aerospace. The UAV can carry up to 45 kg of payload and reach speeds of up to Mach 0.75.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 6:02 AM

Kyiv:

Hi from Kyiv hallway. It’s 2:03 and Russia is attacking us with ballistic missiles . Loud explosions heard just now . Russia is trying to destroy yet another power station , this time in Kyiv . It’s about -11 outside tonight, so yes Russia is trying to freeze us

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— Margo Gontar (@margogontar.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 7:05 PM

The moment a strike hit a high-rise apartment building on the left bank of Kyiv yesterday during Russia’s attack.

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 1:23 PM

Russia carried out a double-tap strike on an apartment building in Kyiv — hitting it again while rescuers and medics were on site

A medic was killed. Five rescuers, four medics, and a police officer were injured

In total, four people were killed in Kyiv and at least 25 injured

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 3:39 AM

Russia killed 56‑year‑old paramedic Serhiy Smolyak in Kyiv last night.

When the emergency medical team arrived at the site of a residential building strike, the terrorists launched a second attack. Serhiy was killed instantly.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 7:43 AM

Lviv:

‼️ Security Service of Ukraine has released images of massive debris from the Oreshnik missile used by Russia in last night’s attack on Lviv region.

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 10:19 AM

Ukraine’s Security Service Demonstrates Debris of “Oreshnik” Missile Used in Attack on Lviv Region;

Strike Classified as a War Crime
SSU has located and documented debris from a Russian ballistic missile used in an attack on Ukraine’s Lviv region during the night of 8–9 January 2026

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 6:53 AM

Kherson:

This is a hospital in Kherson after russian attack, that happened today at 12:15.

A shell pierced the wall of one of the wards. Two nurses were wounded and hospitalized with blast injuries and concussions, according to local administration head Shanko.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 8:20 AM

Chornomorsk, Odesa Oblast:

Russian forces attacked two grain ships in Ukrainian ports, killing a Syrian sailor.

According to Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba, a Russian drone struck a vessel sailing under the foreign flag of Saint Kitts and Nevis,

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 10:36 AM

which was headed to the port of Chornomorsk to load grain. Preliminary reports indicate there are wounded.

Another vessel carrying soybeans was attacked in the port of Odesa. As a result, a crew member—a Syrian citizen—was killed.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 10:36 AM

Russian occupied Crimea:

Missile alert in occupied Crimea. Monitoring channels report road traffic on the Crimean Bridge is temporarily blocked and the bridge lights are switched off right now.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 2:46 PM

Kharkiv:

Russia struck garages in Kharkiv with a missile earlier today.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 4:01 PM

Novomarkove, Donetsk Oblast:

Fighters from the Adamakha drone unit of Ukraine’s 56th Motorized Brigade shared footage showing Russian personnel, buggies and motorcycles being destroyed near Novomarkove.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 12:37 PM

Kapustin Yar, Astrakhan Oblast, Russia:

Kapustin Yar, the place from which russians launched their Oreshnik at Lviv last night Vol. 2

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 11:22 AM

Belgorod Oblast, Russia:

Ukrainian forces reportedly used HIMARS to hit energy infrastructure in Russia’s Belgorod overnight, striking two CHP plants and a 330 kV substation and leaving dozens of smaller substations de-energised.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 12:11 PM

Ukraine carried out one of its most effective strikes on Russian infrastructure since the war began, NetBlocks said. Major internet outages in Russia’s Belgorod region followed Ukrainian attacks on local energy facilities overnight.

x.com/netblocks

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 10:45 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

Ukraine’s defenders are tough, but they have 1 soft spot—animals❤️

They go through all the hardships together. There isn’t a safer place on the front, other than beside Ukrainian warriors. And there isn’t a cozier one, other than beside their cute pets.

u24.gov.ua/donate/defen…

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— UNITED24 (@u24.gov.ua) January 1, 2026 at 2:31 PM

Open thread!

It Is Important to Pay Attention to Air Alerts. The Russians Haven’t Changed One Bit. They Are Trying to Exploit the Weather – Address by the President

8 January 2026 – 19:03

Fellow Ukrainians!

All day today there have been briefings from the Government and all services that are effectively working around the clock to deal with the consequences of the Russian strikes. In Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia regions, after the attack on infrastructure, the situation with electricity and essential services was extremely difficult. All necessary resources have been deployed. I am grateful to all repair crews, municipal services, the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, and all energy companies – work continues nonstop. In Zaporizhzhia region, power supply was restored according to schedule earlier today. Restoration work continues in Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Nikopol, Pavlohrad, and other cities and communities of the Dnipro region. There were, unfortunately, new strikes today as well – specifically against the energy infrastructure and against the civilian sector. In Kryvyi Rih, residential buildings were hit. There is information that another massive Russian attack may happen tonight. It is very important to pay attention to air alerts today and tomorrow and to always go to shelters. The Russians haven’t changed one bit. They are trying to exploit the weather. I instructed the Government to assist local authorities and everyone involved to the maximum. Together with the Prime Minister of Ukraine, we reviewed reports from the regions – not all of the reports were accurate. There will be conclusions. I dispatched the Deputy Prime Minister for Restoration to Dnipro so that he can personally oversee the work and promptly resolve issues related to assistance. Maximum efforts are being made to restore supply.

Across many of our regions, weather conditions have significantly worsened, causing serious problems on the roads and with utilities. In practice, this is an emergency situation for all services. And we agreed with the Prime Minister of Ukraine that the Government will prepare a decision – for the period of such weather conditions, in the coming days – to allow non-critical institutions and regular offices to keep people at home. Also, in coordination with local authorities, parameters for the operation of schools in such conditions must be defined for this week and next week. Today, documents regarding new heads of four regions have already been prepared. I signed the corresponding decrees. In the near future, the leaders will be presented – Poltava, Chernivtsi, Vinnytsia, and Dnipro regions. As for the Ternopil region – a candidate was also agreed upon today. And overall, we will continue making personnel decisions.

I spoke with Rustem Umerov. The negotiating team is returning to Ukraine. I am expecting a report with all the details, including those that cannot be discussed over the phone. There were different formats of meetings – both with the American team and with the European team. We believe the security guarantees agreement with the United States is ready to be signed at the highest level. Importantly, in a trilateral format we discussed the documents on Ukraine’s recovery and economic development – Ukraine, the United States, and Europe. They are almost ready. We also worked in a very substantive manner on the main political document, and on our side there was full constructiveness. The American team needs to receive a response from Russia – what they are ready for and whether they are truly willing to end the war. We believe that only pressure will resolve this – pressure on Russia, and only if it is sufficient. Right now, Russia is betting more on winter than on diplomacy – on ballistic missiles against our energy system rather than on working with the United States and agreements with President Trump. This must change – through pressure on Russia and continued support for Ukraine. Thank you to everyone who sees the situation for what it is. Thank you to everyone who stands with us, with our people, with Ukraine. Thank you to everyone who helps our people.

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Day 407 of #GeorgiaProtests

📷 MOSE

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 2:23 PM

A police officer is taking pictures of protesters.

#GeorgiaProtests
Day 407

📸 Khatia Kakhidze/Publika

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 4:38 PM

Well that seems a wee bit familiar.

Today, prosecutor Vazha Todua reiterates that protester Nika Gventsadze inflicted harm upon a policeman by throwing at him a single tissue.

More precisely, he says “it doesn’t matter what the thrown item was.”

Gventsadze has been in jail for 3 months.

#GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 9:50 AM

This too.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 3:36 AM

Iraq:

The Iraqi government has nationalized Lukoil’s oil extraction rights in the country.

Those rights have been transferred to the state-owned Basra Oil Company.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 10:25 AM

In early December, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil sent exclusive invitations to several major U.S. companies to apply for control of the field. according to Reuters, companies such as Chevron and ExxonMobil are considering investments.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 10:25 AM

A large russian Z-blogger described the loss of Lukoil’s extraction rights in Iraq as the “эффект терпилы”, which basically translates to “doormat effect.” 😁

It’s a jab at putin, suggesting that his habit of silently enduring humiliations is finally catching up to him.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 11:04 AM

Lithuania:

In Lithuania, the possibility was raised of deploying several hundred troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire.

www.lrt.lt/pl/wiadomosc…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 4:57 AM

The Minister of Defense noted that Lithuania would certainly contribute to security guarantees for Ukraine and therefore, in the event of peace, could send several hundred soldiers.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 4:57 AM

Poland:

Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski:

“Putin still dreams of subjugating all of Ukraine, which is not achievable [..] at this rate it would take him decades to conquer Ukraine. But this is the trouble with dictators: once you’ve been in power for 20 years, very few people will tell you the truth.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 10:52 AM

People only bring you the good news.”

He understands russia well. This is exactly the case.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 10:52 AM

The Black Sea:

In the Black Sea yesterday, a drone attacked the oil tanker Elbus as it was heading toward Russia.

The incident occurred near Turkey’s Kastamonu province. The vessel was sailing under the flag of Palau.

👀

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 6:31 AM

Britain:

The UK has confirmed that it has delivered 13 Raven air defence systems and two prototype Gravehawk systems to Ukraine, with further Gravehawk units due to arrive shortly

Thank you UK 🇬🇧🇺🇦

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 5:59 AM

Back to Ukraine.

According to the media, russians attacked a critical infrastructure facility in the Lviv region with Oreshnik. The threat of its repeated use remains for the night.

Swarms of drones are storming Ukraine’s sky, heading twd Kyiv. We expect ballistics and Kinzhals too.

russia aims to freeze Ukraine.

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 6:04 PM

🇺🇦 Our AFU warrior shoots down a “Shahed-136” at long range with twin “Maxim” machine guns.
– Left, Yura, left!
– Yes! Target hit! 💥

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 11:53 AM

Various Russian cavalry units have begun installing Starlink terminals on horseback. This is not just an isolated case.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 7:34 AM

As far as I understand from Russian sources, their idea of installing Starlink terminals on horseback is as follows:

A Starlink terminal mounted on a horse’s back and powered by a powerbank placed in the saddle. The terminal is connected to a smartphone carried by the rider in a chest pocket.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 8:23 AM

/2. This setup is intended to provide continuous live video feed from the cavalryman’s point of view. From headquarters, commanders would be able to monitor the real-time situation around mounted units and track their movements and surroundings online.

Example of a Starlink-enabled cavalry stream:

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 8:24 AM

Oy vey.

Eight air defense systems destroyed by the 412th Nemesis Brigade in last month: Tor-M2 (2 units); Buk-M1 (2 units); Tor-M1; Buk-M3; Strela-10; S-350 Vityaz SAM system radar.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 4:55 AM

Kryvyi Rih:

Russia struck residential buildings in Kryvyi Rih with Iskander missiles. As of now, at least five civilians reported injured.

The attack is still ongoing — drones keep flying into the city again and again.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 11:43 AM

Ukrainian channels report that Russia is currently striking Kryvyi Rih with ballistic missiles. The attacks are coming one after another.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 10:30 AM

It is reported that Russia struck a multi-storey residential building in Kryvyi Rih with two Iskander-M missiles. There are already 12 injured.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 1:28 PM

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 11:00 AM

Kyiv:

As of now, at least two people are reported killed and five injured in Kyiv as russia carries out a massive attack on Ukraine’s capital and other cities across the country.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 7:28 PM

Several districts of Kyiv lost power after one of dozens of russian strikes.

The number of people killed has risen to four.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 9:09 PM

Kyiv tonight‼️

As always, russia fights apartment building. Terrorists.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 6:59 PM

Russia’s attack on Kyiv tonight is yet another act of terrorism against civilians.

A missile struck a residential building, killing an entire family.

A medic was killed and other medical workers wounded. They had rushed to help the injured after the strike in Darnytskyi district, said Mayor.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 8:02 PM

Kyiv now

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— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 6:32 PM

I really hope someone still gives a damn

— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 6:33 PM

Dnipro:

Total blackout continues in Dnipro after the russian attack.

No electricity or water in the middle of the winter.

Russia, as always, fights civilian population. Terrorists.

🎥: Yan Dobronosov

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 10:31 AM

Kharkiv:

Site of a direct russian missile strike on an apartment building in Kharkiv on January 2.

6 bodies were recovered here. 4 required DNA testing for identification, while the other 2: those of a 3‑year‑old boy and his mother, were identified visually.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 5:44 AM

Lviv:

Russia reportedly struck Lviv with an Oreshnik missile.

​Thankfully, there are no reports of victims so far.

​We must remember that russia kills Ukrainian civilians daily using a barrage of drones and missiles.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 5:48 PM

Don’t fall for the Kremlin’s narratives designed to project strength; these are not strategic military moves, but acts of state-sponsored terrorism.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 5:48 PM

Video of “Oreshnik” IRBM strike on Lviv.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 5:36 PM

Another footage of the “Oreshnik” intermediate-range ballistic missile strike on Lviv.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 6:39 PM

Different angle on the “Oreshnik” IRBM strike on Lviv.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 7:17 PM

Donetsk Oblast:

🔥Burning radar of the Russian S-350 air defense system, possibly 50N6A. The attack was carried out using two strike-drones. Donetsk Region. January 5, 2026.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 12:09 PM

Russian occupied Crimea:

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed that the Defense Forces struck a moving fuel train at the loading rack of the “Hvardiiske” oil depot in occupied Crimea.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 2:38 PM

Kostiantynivka:

On the Kostiantynivka axis, operators from “Cursed Empire” burned one motorcyclist and wounded another.
www.instagram.com/cursedempire_/

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 12:20 PM

Siversk:

The crew of a Ukrainian T-72 tank from the 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade is engaging a tree line with Russian infantry on the Siversk sector of the front, withstanding hits from enemy kamikaze drones.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 7:51 AM

Russia:

Russian economic collapse: oil revenues hit a new record low since the start of the full-scale war.

The discount on Urals crude is now almost 50% off Brent, oil is selling at a loss, and buyers are still avoiding Russian oil.

The 1990s are coming back. Make Russia Broke Again.

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 3:22 AM

Belgorod Oblast, Russia:

Blackout in russian Belgorod.

Russia has been striking Ukrainian infrastructure for years, but this is the first year Ukraine responds.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 4:28 PM

Moment of blackout in Belgorod, Russia 🖤

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 4:34 PM

Oryol Oblast, Russia:

«Where’s air defence?» in Russian Oryol, a drone struck the local thermal power plant. Parts of the city were left without electricity and heating

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 5:36 PM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

Wait for it. Wait for it.

One damn lucky deer

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 2:24 PM

Hello!

Open thread!

Speech by the President at the Opening Ceremony of the Cyprus Presidency of the Council of the European Union

7 January 2026 – 21:44

Thank you very much!

Mr. President – Nikos, thank you for today’s visit, for the invitation, and our conversation.

First of all, what I want to say, we are grateful to Denmark for its presidency. And we respect its territorial integrity and sovereignty. And we appreciate the beginning of the Cyprus presidency. And we respect its territorial integrity and sovereignty. We are Ukraine, please respect our territorial integrity and sovereignty.

And dear Mr. President – Nikos, Ursula, António, our friends, thanks for today’s meeting!

Dear Maia!

Presidents and Excellencies!

I’m glad to be here as Cyprus begins its presidency of the Council of the European Union. And this is a presidency we all expect a lot from.

For Ukraine, this moment is really very, very meaningful – just as it is for Cyprus – a member state that, unfortunately, remains divided, but committed to lasting peace – and is fully equal in Europe. And a country that may be smaller in size but has an equal voice in European institutions. This says a lot about what Europe truly is – that every nation matters, and every free country in Europe deserves to be part of our shared European home. And that is what makes Europe stable and peaceful.

Ukraine also deserves this – to be an equal part of our common European home. And we hope that your presidency will be productive in moving us forward on this path.

Nikos and I discussed this today. It is very important that Ukraine is among the priorities of the Cyprus presidency. And we are grateful for what the President has said – that we should aim to open negotiation clusters at the same time during your presidency – for both, of course, for both, Ukraine and our friends – Moldova. And this is a strong and positive ambition.

And during your presidency, we hope to see the start of the implementation of the €90 billion support package for Ukraine – funding that strengthens our resilience, and with it, the resilience of all of Europe. And thank you again, Ursula, thank you, António, thank you for your support, and all the European leaders, for the decision, a very important decision – how to save Ukraine, it means how to save Europe. We need a practical mechanism that will allow these funds to truly help Ukraine. This mechanism must be designed not to create problems, of course, but to reduce the challenges we already face. And we are doing everything required on our side in the negotiation process, and we expect that no additional or excessive demands will be placed on Ukraine.

At the same time, as Cyprus begins its presidency, peace negotiations have reached a new level of intensity. We work very, very actively – Ukraine, our European partners, and of course, the United States, and all members of our Coalition of the Willing – from Canada to Japan, from the EU to Australia. And it is possible – and we sincerely hope – that this war could end during your presidency. And of course, only if enough pressure is put on the aggressor.

And we all understand how wars like this one – Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, our people, our children – come to an end. And when pressure is strong enough to exhaust the source of the war, peace comes. That pressure exists now, and the EU plays a key role in maintaining it. And I thank you for your willingness to help. Sanctions on Russia, support for Ukraine, strengthening our defense together – all of this works for peace, of course. And we have discussed – at the EU level, within the Coalition of the Willing, and in our bilateral work with Cyprus – that sanctions need to be upgraded. A new package is being prepared. And many steps are being taken to target Russia’s shadow fleet, and this will work. Every dollar Russia loses is a dollar that does not fuel the aggressor.

It’s extremely important that we continue receiving support – both for our defense and for our diplomacy – equally from all parts of Europe. That’s why your support matters to us – your recent visit to Ukraine, Mr. President, and the unity we’re showing now, at the start of the Cyprus presidency.

This year, one of the new European initiatives, very important – the SAFE program – must also prove its effectiveness. If it succeeds, Europe will become stronger. And in many ways, this depends on your presidency, Mr. President. And we hope that together with you – with Cyprus and with every EU country – we can work productively, of course.

And I wish you a very successful presidency. I truly hope that during these months, Europe will become stronger, of course, and that people across our continent will feel that tomorrow can be safer, more stable, and better than today. I also deeply believe that together, we can help deliver one of the most important guarantees of peace and security – for our nation and for the whole of Europe – Ukraine’s membership in the European Union.

Thank you so much.

Georgia:

Day 406 of #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 3:52 PM

Day 406 of daily, uninterrupted protests in Georgia. 🇬🇪🇪🇺

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 12:55 PM

A political prisoner in Georgia waving white and red cloths, presumably to symbolize the Georgian flag. 🇬🇪

Activists are standing in front of Gldani prison to wish happy birthday to two prisoners. Georgia now has 120+ prisoners of conscience — more per capita than Russia.

🎥 Nanuka Zhorzholiani

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 8:32 AM

Germany:

An historic moment: Merz says Germany will accept responsibility for security on the European continent.

As Russia increases threats and hybrid warfare against Europe at the same time that US support is weakening, this is an important promise at a critical point in time.

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 2:03 AM

The US:

As American forces seized the sanctioned Russian-flagged tanker Marinera, formerly Bella 1, Putin’s bravado vanished. He has remained silent since his friend and ally Maduro was dragged out of his bedroom like a naughty toddler and deposited in a New York courtroom

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— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 9:29 AM

The UK was involved in the US seizure of the Russian-linked oil tanker near Scotland

RAF planes helped US special forces in carrying out the operation

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— Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) January 7, 2026 at 11:42 AM

‼️Russia escalates showdown with US over Bella 1/Marinera oil tanker.

After reregistering the shadow fleet tanker as Russian and formally requested the US break off pursuit, they have now sent a submarine to escort it as it sails to Murmansk.

More boundary-pushing from Putin.

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 3:26 AM

🇺🇸 We will seize the Bella 1 for violating sanctions
🚢 *runs away, paints on Russian flag*
🇺🇸 *keeps pursuing*
🇷🇺 Please stop pursuit
🇺🇸 HAHA GFY
🇷🇺 *sends ships to escort*
🇺🇸 HAHA GFY 🚁🚢 *seizes tanker*
🇷🇺 Please send the Russians onboard home ASAP
🇺🇸 HAHA GFY

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 12:27 PM

Because he is at the confluence of too many things within the administration, I highly recommend this recounting of Rubio’s history. He grew up within the overlap of the Cuban revolutionaries that emerged from the Bay of Pigs fiasco and then became central players in the narco-cartels. Rubio is where he is today because a carteled up local high net worth individual in Miami wanted his own state legislator and then US Senator. So Lil Narco was protected from the crimes he himself committed while others were sacrificed to the criminal justice system.

Trump posted on his social network that without his involvement, Russia would now own all of Ukraine.

And it seems he’s still bitter about not being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 11:09 AM

First, NATO Article 5 has only been invoked once. By the US after 9-11. And everyone in NATO provided some form of support. Second, the reason that the Russians don’t own all of Ukraine is because of the efforts of the Ukrainians with assistance from many others, including, but not limited to the US. Assistance, however, that does not, has not, and will not include actual military assistance as in having allies send their forces to come and fight alongside the Ukrainians. Third, what US assistance had been provided, which was always too little and far too often too late, has now essentially been stopped by Trump and his natsec team.

“No new air defense systems have arrived from the U.S.; missiles are coming in bit by bit, but we want to speed it up.” – Zelenskyy.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 8:14 AM

Trump has had a wild day and evening on social media, I’m not going to get into the rest.

Estonia:

Russian combat “witch-nuns” of the Russian Orthodox Church, who had been working at Narva Cathedral in Estonia under fictitious contracts, have been banned from entering the Schengen Area. The nuns who actively supported the war will no longer be able to travel to Europe.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 5:36 AM

Israel:

DIN: Russia is urgently evacuating staff of the Russian embassy along with their families from Israel – this is already the third flight within the last 24 hours.
x.com/DailyIranNew…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 12:50 PM

Chechnya:

It appears that Kadyrov took offense at what he claims was Zelenskyy’s call to kidnap him. He is also complaining that it was humiliating.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 2:25 PM

Back to Ukraine.

As a result of another Russian attack, the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions have been almost completely left without power – Ukrainian Ministry of Energy.

No power. No heat. No water. In the dead of winter.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 4:50 PM

‼️ Russian cavalry attacks again!
Under the cover of fog, an assault group of three Russian cavalrymen attacked the positions of 36th Marine Brigade of Ukraine.

Ukrainian drone pilots precisely neutralized the riders, even avoiding harm to the horses.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 3:19 PM

In the 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade’s area of responsibility, Russian occupiers attempted a massive assault using armored vehicles, but the mission failed.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 4:33 PM

FPV drone operators from the “Aquila” unit of the “Steel Border” Border Guard Brigade destroyed 4 enemy vehicles and struck an ammunition depot, a mortar, and an assault troop shelter near the Ukrainian border.
t.me/c/1323012452…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 9:07 AM

Airstrikes on concentrations of enemy assault troops using GBU-39 aerial bombs launched from MiG-29 aircraft.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 4:26 AM

Odesa:

Russia attacked port infrastructure in Odesa region, sparking massive fires.

At least 2 people were killed and 8 injured.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 8:47 PM

Ukrainian channels report that Russia struck two ports in the Odesa region today – one person was killed and five others were wounded. The attacks damaged administrative buildings, vegetable oil containers, and cargo vehicles.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 11:04 AM

🎄🇺🇦 There are places where two eternities meet—the sea and celebration. And this place is Odesa beach, where someone with an incredibly kind and romantic heart put up a Christmas tree right on the shore.

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 8:51 AM

Zaporizhzhia:

In Zaporizhzhia today, Russia struck a grocery store.

A militarily pointless target. Just pure and simple terrorism. As always.

Luckily, there were no victims.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 8:41 PM

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

In December 2025, in the Zaporizhzhia direction, a sabotage and reconnaissance group from the Bratstvo unit – part of the Tymur Special Unit of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence – carried out a deep raid behind Russian lines near the Kakhovka Reservoir⤵️

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— Anton Gerashchenko (@antongerashchenko.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 3:23 PM

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast:

A woman was killed in a Russian drone strike in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

While firefighters were battling the blaze, the enemy launched a second attack, wounding one rescuer. A fire truck was also damaged.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 11:15 AM

Kharkiv:

Anti‑drone nets are being installed around Kharkiv 😞

Photo: Yan Dobronosov

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 9:29 AM

Kharkiv Oblast:

Drone footage of the frontline area in Kharkiv Oblast.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 2:52 PM

Kherson:

During today’s shelling, Russia killed a 68‑year‑old local resident in Kherson. He sustained multiple shrapnel wounds and died at the scene‼️

Bastards. Murderers.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 9:20 AM

Dnipro:

On the night of January 7, Russia launched a massive attack on the Dnipro

Seven people were injured in the attack, including two children. The shelling sparked several fires across the city.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 7:30 AM

Flames damaged apartment blocks, private homes, administrative buildings, vehicles, infrastructure facilities, and a gas pipeline.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 7:30 AM

Russia:

Russia is slowly but steadily reducing itself to a regional power, closer to Pakistan than to any global peer. It is not there yet, given its nuclear triad and remaining leverage, but in the years ahead Russians will face a far less enviable geopolitical position

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 10:07 AM

Perm Oblast, Russia:

Russians in The Perm region pulling off the dumbest helicopter crash ever 🤷‍♀️ Two dead.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 9:12 AM

Moscow:

Russian channels report that a plant producing jet engines for Su aircraft and Ka-52 and Mi-28 helicopters is on fire in Moscow. Firefighting units are being dispatched to the scene.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 1:48 PM

Belgorod Oblast, Russia:

At night, the Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked an oil depot in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast and a logistics (material and technical supplies) warehouse.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 7:40 AM

The target was “Oskolneftesnab”, which is involved in supplying fuel to the Russian occupying army. A large-scale fire has been recorded at the facility. A logistics warehouse of the Russians’ 20th Motor Rifle Division in the temporarily occupied territory of Donetsk Oblast was also hit.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 7:40 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

Even amidst war and energy terror life goes on.

#Kyiv, Obolon

📹Galyna Lapina/Facebook

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— Anton Gerashchenko (@antongerashchenko.bsky.social) January 7, 2026 at 3:54 PM

Open thread!

Statement by the President of Ukraine During a Joint Press Conference With Emmanuel Macron, Keir Starmer, Friedrich Merz, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner

6 January 2026 – 23:07

Thank you very much, Emmanuel, Mr. President, for your invitation and for organizing this!

Keir, Mr. Prime Minister!

Friedrich, Mr. Chancellor!

Steve, Jared!

Distinguished journalists, everyone present!

First of all, thank you for our meeting. And this was one of the most representative meetings of the Coalition of the Willing – twenty-seven heads of state, the European Union, NATO, and representatives of Türkiye, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. It was truly a global meeting, with an exceptionally high level of discussion.

Importantly, the Coalition now has substantive documents in place. This is not just rhetoric – there is concrete progress: a joint declaration by all Coalition countries, and a trilateral declaration by France, the United Kingdom, and Ukraine. These documents exist, and they signal how seriously both Europe and the entire Coalition of the Willing are ready to work toward real security. Through these documents, we are strengthening our further legal work within countries, with parliaments, so that at the moment when diplomacy succeeds in bringing the war to an end, we will have full readiness to deploy Coalition forces. The details have been elaborated within a system of other documents. It has been determined which countries are ready to take the lead in specific elements of security guarantees – on land, in the air, at sea, and in reconstruction. It has been determined what forces are needed, how they will be managed, and at which levels command will operate. We must also establish how monitoring will function. It must be absolutely clear how the appropriate strength and size of the Ukrainian army will be sustained and financed – I addressed this separately today. We consider this a key element: our Ukrainian strength. And based on our army, all other components will function effectively. Military officials from France, the United Kingdom, and Ukraine worked in detail on force deployment, numbers, specific types of weapons, and the components of the Armed Forces required and able to operate effectively. We already have these necessary details. We understand which country is ready for what among all members of the Coalition of the Willing. I would like to thank every leader and every state that truly wishes to be part of a peaceful solution. We had very substantive discussions with the American team on monitoring to ensure there are no violations of peace. The United States is ready to work on this. This is extremely important to us. One of the most critical elements is deterrence – the tools that will prevent any new Russian aggression. And we see all of this. We have also made significant progress with the American negotiating team on the documents, and here in Paris, we’ve already held – and will hold further – separate meetings with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. We believe that we now have documents ready on security guarantees, bilateral, between Ukraine and the United States, as well as trilateral documents. We expect that signing could take place in the near future, and we are already working through these formats. God willing, we will succeed. We value the United States’ readiness to back the forces tasked with preventing any recurrence of Russian aggression. The U.S. backstop is extremely important for us. We understand the potential timing of all these processes, and we all agree that these security guarantees must be legally binding, including approval by the U.S. Congress.

Of course, there are still issues with the documents. Some points in the 20-point document require further work, the most significant being territorial issues. We discussed some ideas that may help. If the teams cannot resolve certain points, they can be escalated to leaders. Today, we will continue, and the Ukrainian team will remain for additional meetings and negotiations. I want to thank you, Emmanuel, for giving us this opportunity for our teams to meet over two days. Thank you, and my sincere thanks also to our American colleagues. But the key point is that the architecture of post-war security is practically already in place. And it is now up to our partners to push for Russia to reach the point of ending the war. Ukraine has never been an obstacle to peace – Russia was the source, the origin of this war, the source of aggression, and in this formula, it is clear who must take the key steps. I thank everyone who is helping us, who is helping to actually make everything so that we have peace. Everyone understands that the aggressor must stop for peace to work. And all instruments are working for this: from our deep strikes, sanctions, and diplomacy, which is so important. It is very important that we have also discussed our air defense, and this issue was also raised by other Coalition of the Willing leaders – this is our daily task. That is true. Ukraine needs air defense missiles, steady supplies, because Russian strikes, unfortunately, continue despite diplomacy. The strikes do not stop. Russia is not yet fully committed to diplomacy, and it is not committed only because it counts on strikes against our energy facilities, our infrastructure, peaceful cities and villages. That is why every one of our meetings addresses air defense as well. And in Mar-a-Lago, we discussed this with President Trump – I thank him very much for his understanding and support – and here in Paris, we are raising the air defense issue as well. The stronger our defense, the stronger our diplomacy will ultimately be. We are grateful to all who are ready to provide rapid assistance.

Glory to Ukraine!

And here’s the video of the joint press conference of the heads of state participating in the Coalition of the Willing plus Jared.

Georgia:

Georgian protesters are singing the Georgian polyphonic song Mravalzhamieri and waiting to ring in Orthodox Christmas, observed under the Julian calendar. 🎶

Day 405 of daily, uninterrupted protests in Georgia — and within minutes, day 406.

🎥 Publika

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 3:01 PM

I asked some protesters about their projects, hoping to find some funding for them, & they responded that it’s hard to think of projects when they have no money for basic food or transportation.

That’s where we’re at, while our partners STILL search for ways to “channel.”

#GeorgiaProtests Day 405

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 12:51 PM

January 5 is the birthday of Georgian poet Zviad Ratiani, who turned 55. He was arrested in June 2025 under criminal law after slapping a police officer. Later he said that the act was “a slap for everyone.” On October 9, a Georgian court sentenced him to two years in prison.

#TerrorinGeorgia

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 10:25 AM

Britain and France:

Ukraine, France, and Britain have signed a declaration on deploying multinational forces in Ukraine after the war! 👏

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 1:50 PM

The United Kingdom and France have agreed to establish military hubs across Ukraine following a ceasefire, – Starmer.

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 2:22 PM

Ukraine, France, and the United Kingdom have signed a declaration on the deployment of multinational forces in Ukraine after the end of the war.

🇺🇦🇫🇷🇬🇧

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 2:21 PM

Greenland:

Few thoughts on the Greenland saga, summarized in a short thread. Some of these points have already sparked debate on X, but after Miller’s speech, I am even more convinced. 🧵Thread

1/ First and foremost, Denmark is not only a member of the EU, but also a founding member of NATO.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 9:08 AM

2/ Attempts by U.S. officials to question Denmark’s territorial integrity are shocking to many Europeans. However, after watching what Trump has been doing to Ukraine, trying to extract resources through so called mineral agreements after years of partnership, this should not come as a surprise.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 9:08 AM

3/ Some Europeans continue to put their faith in the US. American soldiers will refuse orders, American institutions will intervene, the midterms will save us, Democrats will return Greenland, and so on. The problem is that this mindset places Europe in a helpless position, with no agency of its own

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 9:08 AM

4/ In reality, Europe has many levers, financial, economic, and security related. Last but not least, it has military forces that could be deployed to Greenland. The purpose would not be to win a war, but to make a Crimean style annexation impossible

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 9:08 AM

5/ A reinforced Greenland would become a major political problem for Washington. Shooting at or bombing your own allies would be devastating domestically and politically for any U.S. administration.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 9:08 AM

6/ Europe also remains the most important infrastructural base for U.S. power projection, including operations in Africa and the Middle East. This reality must be explained to the Trump administration directly, not through “daddy trump” flattery, jokes, or evasive diplomacy.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 9:08 AM

7/ If Greenland is lost this way, more losses will follow. In 2014, we, Ukrainians, were forced to give up Crimea under the pressure from the US to avoid confrontation and war. Crimea was lost, and war still came. This is not a problem you solve by sending angry letters or by giving up

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 9:08 AM

8/ Trump acts only when the risks are low. He bombed Iran only after Israel had already suppressed Iranian air defenses, air forces, and command structures. Europe must act collectively, and by acting collectively I mean far more than issuing joint statements.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 9:08 AM

9/ Until you push back and demonstrate real consequences for crossing red lines, you will remain an object in Trump’s thinking, not a subject. Deterrence is the only language leaders with authoritarian mindset understand.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 9:08 AM

10/ If Europe fails to do this, it will not only lose Greenland. It will lose NATO as an alliance and, ultimately, its own strategic and economic autonomy

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 9:08 AM

Good luck invading Greenland in February, the coldest month of the year

— Minna Ålander 🌻 (@alanderminna.bsky.social) January 5, 2026 at 11:24 AM

Nothing is funny anymore, but if the US invading force had to give up Greenland because they started losing toes to frostbites, it would be just a little bit funny

— Minna Ålander 🌻 (@alanderminna.bsky.social) January 5, 2026 at 11:25 AM

There’s a reason why the Danish military ordered 750 000 pairs of woollen socks from Finland a year ago

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— Minna Ålander 🌻 (@alanderminna.bsky.social) January 5, 2026 at 11:28 AM

Norway:

Russian spies in Norway operating under the cover of fishermen and tourists.

The commander of the Finnmark Division warned that Russian intelligence activity and hybrid warfare in the region are intensifying.

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 10:05 AM

Russia has been actively operating across Europe: espionage; sabotage; disruption of infrastructure, energy, transport, and communications. And I think unfortunately Europe will see more of this.

— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 10:05 AM

Germany:

Ukrainians have opened a “Point of Resilience” in Berlin, a place where people can warm up, charge their devices, and have hot tea 🫶🏻

In one district of Berlin, electricity and heating have been out for the fourth day after cables at a power facility were set on fire.

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 10:58 AM

Tens of thousands of residents remain without power, with restoration promised by January 8.

Local residents said they were frightened, and some even thought Russia had attacked them.

People helping people. Berlin isn’t alone.
🇩🇪🖤🇺🇦

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 10:58 AM

Hungary:

Counting down not in days, but in hours until Hungarians vote this asshole out.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 12:29 PM

Back to Ukraine.

“Ukraine has used these autonomous systems effectively to substitute for other capabilities that it lacks, like artillery and infantry mass.”

Where pretty much all of these types of articles collapse is their presumption that NATO has such capabilities.

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— Sasho Todorov (@sashotodorov.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 6:46 AM

From War on the Rocks:

When I look back at my 45 years of military service, one of the highlights of my military education was a battlefield tour I participated in during 2001 at the Somme battlefield, alongside other “high flying” students on the U.K.’s Higher Command and Staff course.

The historical element of it was provided by the late Richard Holmes and we students reveled in his masterful narrative history. Holmes explained how the tank had been fielded in 1916 as a predominantly infantry protection platform to provide cover for troops as they moved across no-man’s land. It was not until 1918, after much improvement, trialing, testing and experimentation, that the Allies worked out that combining tanks with infantry, artillery and engineers — connected by rudimentary battlefield communications and supported by airpower — achieved a combined effect that was worth much more than the sum of its parts. This idea of combined arms maneuver was at the heart of the 100 day campaign which led to victory in World War I and of course blitzkrieg 20 years later.

I will never forget Holmes leading us up a slope from the British lines to where the German lines were placed. At each step, Holmes would remember another father, son, uncle, nephew or brother of that particular “Pals Battalion” and where they had fallen. By the time we got to the top of the hill, not one soldier from this battalion would have been with us and neither was there a dry eye among us.

One day, some readers of War on the Rocks may have the opportunity to engage in a similar tour of the battlefields that today witness fierce combat between Russia and Ukraine. They will be struck by the human costs, but also — as I was — by the lessons to be learned from how they fought.

Indeed, all militaries are naturally keen to learn lessons from the war in Ukraine, but we should be careful not to focus too much on technology. All wars have their own characteristics influenced by numerous factors, including technology, but also doctrine, tactics and the military culture of the protagonists. The Russo-Ukrainian War is no different, and unless we place it properly in context, there is a risk our countries’ military forces will leap to the wrong conclusions.

Ukraine’s battlefield technologies — especially drones — do not yet constitute a new way of warfare. Instead, they function mainly as substitutions for missing capabilities and have produced stalemate rather than decisive maneuver. Lasting change in NATO militaries will come only if these technologies are integrated with existing platforms and, even more importantly, employed through doctrine and concepts that truly realize their potential to deliver advantage. And, much like past transformations such as the development of combined arms and AirLand Battle, that will only happen through extensive experimentation and cultural evolution.

Such change in NATO militaries should be informed by, but not beholden to, lessons identified in Ukraine. NATO militaries should also take account of other considerations such as operational analysis, research and development, science and technology, experimentation, trials, fielding, and training to assess not only how technological developments open up new possibilities for fighting effectively, but also how they may challenge some of our assumptions about the way we will be able to fight. Otherwise, they would risk adopting Ukraine’s lessons wholesale, rather than adapting them to the specific contexts NATO militaries will face in future battles, or basing their future force design on false foundations.

NATO militaries are understandably keen to learn from the war in Ukraine as European militaries work out how to rearm. Holmes is sadly no longer with us, but he would have reminded us that all wars are sui generis, and that care should be taken to apply the right lessons. In Ukraine we see a mix of World War I and World War III. We see technology — including drones, robots, and AI — that presages what we would expect to see in a future war. Yet, we also see a battlefield that, since the initial Russian offensive in February 2022 and the Ukrainian counter offensives later that autumn and in Kursk in 2024, has become remarkably static, attritional and reminiscent of World War I.

Much of the focus of apparent lessons has been on new technologies, especially on what are generically referred to as drones. It seems obvious that future warfare will involve drones, for they have become the biggest killer on the Ukraine battlefield, and their wider potential as cheap but narrowly effective strike weapons has been widely recognized. But rather like the machine gun, artillery, and tanks in World War I, they aren’t yet leading to a decisive outcome, let alone a new way of warfare. So far, they have yielded only stalemate and the type of brutal war of attrition that no army would want to fight.

Ukraine has used these autonomous systems effectively to substitute for other capabilities that it lacks, like artillery and infantry mass. But drones have not yet been used to stimulate a new kind of offensive warfare that might break the deadlock. It seems clear that drones are unlikely to replace capabilities like the tank or the infantry fighting vehicle, as they cannot yet take ground and hold it, maneuver to create shock action, or react in the same way a tank can. As with most new military technologies they seem likely to be a complement to traditional capabilities, at least at first, and they have yet to be effectively integrated with the full range of existing platforms.

Technological advances and the use of off-the-shelf components have made drones of many kinds far more affordable and capable of delivering cost-effective precision strikes at scale. Hence the proliferation of reconnaissance strike drones with mass produceable precision sensing and, more recently, strike. But is this simply a development from the expensive uncrewed surveillance platforms we increasingly fielded in the post 9/11 campaigns, such as Predator, Reaper and Hermes, used predominantly for precision targeting of insurgents or terrorists in favorable airspace? Or are we standing on the threshold of something much more innovative, with swarming drones and mass precision possessing the same potential as the tank in 1916?

As we think about answering this question, we need to unpack the term “drones”, which currently obscures more than it illuminates. We need to be careful not to conflate systems that are not designed to have their software updated (such as the cheap quadcopters and first-person view systems produced in the millions for Ukraine) with those that are software-defined (such as AI-enabled one-way platforms or loitering munitions) and, given their open architecture, are able to be updated via their software and thus retain effectiveness despite rapid battlefield change.

These software-defined systems may have significant latent capability that is not yet being utilized, not least the potential for flexible, unpredictable, yet coordinated fires that might be realized through a version of what is often ­and loosely ­called ”swarming.” Yet beyond this still nebulous term, there is probably more that could be achieved with these systems if they were used in a practiced command and control structure, combined with a comprehensive battle management system. This would allow for both the benefits of delegated decision making over devolved fires capabilities (which loitering munitions provide) and the coordination and concentration of fires needed to deliver advantage and potentially re-enable maneuver.

However, we should also ask what more could be achieved not only by fully integrating these new systems — and other applications of software-defined defense, especially military AI, including in command and control and battle networks — with the full range of legacy air land capabilities, but by using this newly expanded toolbox to develop new ways of warfare led by doctrine and concepts. In short, we should not obsess on the technology itself, but rather on its potential to lead to a new way of warfare that might change the character of the conflict once more, reasserting conventional deterrence and saving the lives of those otherwise to be lost in the continuing brutality of World War I attrition.

It would be a mistake to treat Ukraine’s use of drones as a ready-made model for NATO. Ukraine is compensating for capability shortfalls, particularly with artillery and infantry. Its drone-centric approach has produced stalemate, not a breakthrough. And NATO should avoid drawing the wrong lessons.

Having seen the way in which AirLand Battle was envisioned and then implemented, the drivers for real change are doctrine and concepts, not gadgets. Technological adoption should be subordinated to evolved doctrine, operational concepts, and culture. Technology alone cannot deliver a new way of warfare, although it can effectively enable it.

Establishing change involves a systematic process of research and development, operational analysis, experimentation, trials, fielding, and realistic training, and it mirrors how past revolutions like combined arms maneuver and AirLand Battle were created — not just technology enthusiasm. We cannot possibly know, for example, whether an autonomous swarm of drones would be the most effective way of dealing with targets in depth unless we test the idea systematically.

This systematic process also involves all the capability lines of development — including doctrine, force design, training and logistics — encapsulated in the British acronym TEPIDOIL and the U.S. equivalent DOTMLPF-P, and will likely lead to very different force and career structures. As with the evolution of the tank from 1916 onwards and AirLand Battle 60 years later, so this evolution should be informed by our armed forces, academia, and industry working together.

Integration is the real source of advantage. Drones, AI, and software-defined munitions should be combined with tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery, airpower, and effective command and control networks. The real potential of new systems will only become obvious once they are integrated with legacy capabilities into a coherent force with appropriate operational concepts.

It is clear that technology and access to information is allowing much more rapid decision-action cycles, compressing the levels of command, and enabling more precise and longer weapon ranges. This will markedly change the planning yardsticks at every level of command in the land domain, as well as the management of low level airspace — the so-called “air littoral.” This will require new command and control and battle management approaches to be developed, requiring decentralized decision-making enabled by advanced command and control, battle networks, and delegated fires.

Both concepts and command processes will have to deal with temporal compression, spatial expansion, and the saturation of sensors and shooters, which some see as creating a more transparent and uniformly deadly battle space. This saturation creates challenges to be overcome if NATO militaries are to be able to determine how they fight rather than being overwhelmed, discombobulated, and disoriented. But these are also challenges that militaries faced, relative to their own time and technology, in World War I and the Cold War — and overcame them through concept-led change born of iterative thinking and experimentation.

Different theaters will require different operational concepts. A NATO-Europe concept will differ from the Indo-Pacific. For example, Ukraine’s drone-heavy close battle does not automatically translate to operations against Chinese advanced anti-access area denial systems, even though it may have applicability in the close battle in Taiwan or Korea.

In my experience, it is culture that is invariably at the heart of real change. For AirLand Battle, the new way of war required cultural reform: empowering initiative through mission command, accepting risk in training, encouraging mistakes that lead to real learning, and building the adaptability which allows an enemy to be outthought and outmaneuvered — all enabled and empowered by new technology, coherently and effectively employed.

Effecting change today necessitates fielding software-defined and autonomous systems at scale now to learn how to use them — and to test how our assumptions hold up or are amended under the challenges of temporal, spatial, and saturation conditions noted above. True revolution will only come from deploying these systems widely enough to understand their real operational potential and limitations and draw these into operational concepts. History reminds us that this requires a systematic process infused with an organizational and leadership culture that can turn all of this into real change.

Ultimately, which direction that change takes will depend on how NATO countries envision the change they want to make. And how our enemies do the same, for the enemy always gets a vote, not least as they also strive to wring maximum advantage from new technology. Invariably there will be advocates who will direct the technology and the direction of change toward attritional approaches, and there will be advocates who will seek to enable maneuver. NATO militaries will likely need some elements of both, but as servants of Western democracies, they would do well to recognize that their tolerance for casualties is somewhat less than our authoritarian enemies – so envisioning how NATO countries want to fight is the first and most important step in realizing the necessary change.

Much more at the link.

I think GEN Carter makes a second error in addition to not recognizing that the vast majority of NATO member states do not now have the capabilities he’s stating that Ukraine’s drones are compensating for. The second error is that he too narrowly defines way of war.

Dnipro:

🚨Russia is bombing Dnipro with drones right now! There are fires in the city.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 3:49 PM

Russian occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

A Polish man who did not believe that Russia had invaded Ukraine traveled to the occupied territories to see for himself, and died in a Russian prison after being tortured, Gazeta Wyborcza reports.😕

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 8:33 AM

The Russians buried in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia after transferring him there and torturing him to death.

Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast:

Pokrovsk direction, Donetsk region. Apparently, the Russians are running low on “traditionally Russian” cannon fodder, so they are throwing mercenaries into the assaults. One such infantryman was spotted by “Spartan” drone operators while moving toward Ukrainian positions.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 1:35 PM

The Africans were most likely recruited via COSI, which is the legal front for the PMC formerly known as Wagner.

A HIMARS strike hit a concentration of Russian soldiers and several pieces of equipment near Pokrovsk. The strike occurred between Novopavlivka and Chynushyne, about 7 km from the line of contact.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 5:26 AM

Toretsk:

Toretsk. Yet another city being turned into ruins by Russia. Due to the use of fiber-optic drones, fiber wires are increasingly blanketing the city.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 1:02 PM

Lipetsk Oblast, Russia:

The General Staff confirms the strike on the ‘Hercon Plus’ oil depot near the settlement of Streletskie Khutora in Russia’s Lipetsk region last night. It is still burning.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 1:01 PM

Ukraine’s General Staff has confirmed the strike on the “Gerkon Plus” oil depot near the settlement of Streletskie Khutora in Russia’s Lipetsk Oblast. The fire is still ongoing.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 11:10 AM

Belgorod Oblast, Russia:

Stary Oskol, Russia’s Belgorod region. reports say that drones struck the local oil depot.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 2:34 PM

Kostroma Oblast, Russia:

Russian ammunition storage in Neya, kostroma region was targeted tonight. 920km from the frontline.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 4:06 AM

Penza Oblast, Russia:

Strike UAVs also visited the city of Penza, where the local plant PJSC Biomintez is on fire. It is one of the largest pharmaceutical manufacturers on the Russian market.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 11:04 AM

The Russian Arctic:

Ukrainian media, citing Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, report that Russia is unable to properly maintain its strategic ports in the Arctic.
szru.gov.ua/news-media/n…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 8:17 AM

According to Ukrainian intelligence, ports in Russia’s Arctic zone are suffering from a lack of essential equipment needed for dredging operations and pier repairs. Most of this equipment was foreign-made, and access to it is currently blocked by international sanctions.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 8:17 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

Ukraine’s defenders are tough, but they have 1 soft spot—animals❤️

They go through all the hardships together. There isn’t a safer place on the front, other than beside Ukrainian warriors. And there isn’t a cozier one, other than beside their cute pets.

u24.gov.ua/donate/defen…

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— UNITED24 (@u24.gov.ua) January 1, 2026 at 2:31 PM

Open thread!