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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The fight for our country is always worth it. ~Kamala Harris

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

Impressively dumb. Congratulations.

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

“But what about the lurkers?”

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

“I was told there would be no fact checking.”

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

He really is that stupid.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

Stamping your little feets and demanding that they see how important you are? Not working anymore.

In after Baud. Damn.

Fear or fury? The choice is ours.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

If you are still in the gop, you are either an extremist yourself, or in bed with those who are.

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War in Ukraine

You are here: Home / Archives for War in Ukraine

Russian Warship, Go Fuck Yourself

All Balloon Juice posts on Ukraine are below these resource lists.


War in Ukraine Lexicon


Newspapers

Kyiv Independent

Financial Times: War In Ukraine

The New Voice of Ukraine  (independent newspaper)

Ukraine’s public broadcaster  (in English)


Twitter

Michael McFaul

Terrell Jermaine Starr  (writes for Foreign Policy magazine)

Illia Ponomarenko  (reporter for Kyiv Independent)


Recommended by Adam

Best political-military (pol-mil), defense enterprise/logistics, and socio-cultural analysis of what’s going that Adam has seen so far!  Link

Very thorough, in depth analysis of an article mistakenly run by RIA Novosti on 26 February that was supposed to be a self congratulatory victory lap. The thread provides an interesting window into how the Russians are representing their actions.  Link

Excellent thread from the Center for Naval Analysis’s Director for Russian Studies on what he thinks is going on with the disjointedness and ineffectiveness of Russia’s campaign so far and where he thinks may go in the days to come.  Link


Ways to Help Ukraine



War for Ukraine Day 1,179: Putin Keeps Probing for Mush

by Adam L Silverman|  May 18, 202511:09 pm| 5 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A quick housekeeping note: I’m still fried. I’ve got (at least) one more long hard day ahead tomorrow, so I’m just going to run through the basics, get cleaned up, and then rack out.

Today was the commemoration for the Soviet genocide of the Crimean Tatars:

🕯️ We commemorate the victims of the Crimean Tatar people who, in 1944, were subjected to genocide carried out by the Soviet Union, with nearly 200,000 Crimean residents forcibly deported.
1/2

— Latvian MFA 🇱🇻 | #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 (@latvianmfa.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 3:02 AM

2/2
Latvia expresses solidarity with the Crimean Tatar people and strongly condemns the human rights violations committed by Russia in Crimea since its illegal annexation in 2014. #CrimeaIsUkraine 🇺🇦

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— Latvian MFA 🇱🇻 | #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 (@latvianmfa.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 3:02 AM

President Zelenskyy was in Rome and Vatican City today for meetings with Pope Leo and the latter’s inaugural mass. And the VP of a Thousand Last Names.

There’s nothing sweeter than vatnik tears.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 6:16 PM

I’m Adam L Silverman and I endorse this messsage.

Let’s start with the upcoming Trump-Putin phone call. The Japan Times, republishing from Bloomberg, has the details:

Vladimir Putin believes he has a strong hand ahead of a phone call Monday with Donald Trump and European leaders are trying to prevent the U.S. president from rushing through a deal.

Putin is confident that his forces can break through Ukraine’s defenses by the end of the year to take full control of four regions that he has claimed for Russia, according to a person familiar with the Russian president’s thinking who asked not to named discussing private conversations.

 

That means the Russian president is unlikely to offer any meaningful concessions to Trump when the two leaders speak and European officials are worried that Trump may try to force through a settlement regardless.

The U.S. president has been pushing for a quick end to a war that is now deep into its fourth year and has backed himself to unlock a deal in a direct conversation with Putin. The Russian leader, for his part, has given no indication that he’s ready to stop fighting as his troops slowly grind forward on the battlefield and that’s fueled concern in Kyiv and other European capitals that Ukraine could be pushed into giving up more ground.

“Unfortunately where we are in the war, you don’t see strong incentives for Russia to agree to a ceasefire,” Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, said at a conference in Tallinn, Estonia, Sunday.

There’s a growing sense that U.S. efforts to impose a ceasefire are culminating and officials in Europe are unsure whether Trump will ramp up pressure on Russia or simply move on to the next challenge if they fail. Trump has promised to brief Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and some of his NATO allies once he’s finished speaking with his Russian counterpart.

Despite all the talk about ending the fighting, Putin is ready for a protracted war if that is what is required to achieve his goals and he is sanguine about the prospect of further U.S. sanctions, according to two other people close to the Kremlin.

“Trump wants Putin to agree to a truce but he absolutely doesn’t want to,” said Sergei Markov, a political consultant with close ties to the Kremlin. “But Putin isn’t interested in a collapse of the talks. He’s trying to maneuver so that these negotiations continue alongside the military offensive.”

On a call Friday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, France’s Emmanuel Macron and the U.K.’s Keir Starmer tried to make it clear to Trump that Putin has been stringing him along, according to one senior European official. They are hoping that Trump will realize that he risks looking like a loser if he forces a bad deal on Ukraine, the official added.

Zelenskyy was also on the Friday call but he seemed despondent and exhausted by the week’s developments, the official said. Zelenskyy and his European allies believed they had a commitment from Trump to hit the Kremlin with fresh sanctions if Putin refused to observe a ceasefire from last Monday, but that hasn’t materialized.

“Putin has been emboldened by his ability to make maximalist demands of Ukraine without experiencing any serious pushback from the Trump administration,” said Bota Iliyas, a senior analyst at Prism, a strategic intelligence firm in London. “Putin doesn’t trust Trump. But he will push Trump to align with Russia’s vision for a ceasefire.”

Much more at the link.

The only way to change the risk versus reward calculus for Putin is the exact same thing that it has been for the past three years: give Ukraine what it needs to defeat Russia on the battlefield as quickly as possible. Otherwise Putin will use his far greater population to keep trying to exhaust the Ukrainians. A long, grinding, protracted war is not a problem for Putin. Reality has not changed for three years: Putin and Russia are either stopped in Ukraine and pushed back within Russia’s borders or he will threaten all of the former states of the Soviet Union and then the rest of Europe.

Istanbul talks showed Putin aims for a grand diplomatic deal to restore Russian dominance over post-Soviet space, per Sky News.
news.sky.com/story/ukrain…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 1:56 PM

More after the jump.

show full post on front page

From Sky News:

It was the first face-to-face meeting between Ukrainian and Russian government officials since 2022 – and it lasted barely two hours.

There were hopes that the encounter in Istanbul, Turkey, might mark a turning point in Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War Two.

But in reality, the talks proved to be more mirage than breakthrough – what the world has witnessed over the last few days was performative but it lacked real substance.

What it did show, though, was that the gulf between the two sides remains as wide as ever.

And at the centre of all this is a question of international willpower – particularly that of the United States.

The future of any meaningful peace process may now rest on the extent to which Donald Trump is willing to stay engaged.

Ukraine accuses Russia of stalling the process with maximalist, unrealistic demands.

From Kyiv’s perspective, Moscow is playing for time, hoping the war’s momentum will eventually shift further in its favour strengthening its hand diplomatically.

And with recent battlefield gains, Putin appears in no rush to negotiate a ceasefire – which was the central aim of the Ukrainian delegation.

What does Putin want?

Ultimately, the Russian president seems to be angling for a grand diplomatic bargain – one that would include a meeting with Trump and result in the geopolitical restoration of Russian dominance over swathes of the post-Soviet space.

More at the link.

Georgia:

“Hitler issued ‘lawful’ orders, too.”

Day 172 of protests in Georgia—where police officers followed orders, dragged protesters into special minibuses, beat them brutally, and sent over 300 to the hospital. Not a single one has faced consequences. Yet.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 8:52 AM

Day 172. Another weekend march through neighbourhoods that demands the resignation of the illegitimate regime.

Of course, there will also be daily Rustaveli protest in the evening. #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 8:36 AM

My dream is for all the various small protests to unite under one, solid “down with the regime” umbrella… Please.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 9:07 AM

Story behind the 17 of May in Georgia:

1/ On May 17, the world observes the IDAHOBIT. Yet in Georgia, for nearly a decade, the Orthodox Church and conservative segments of society have instead marked the day as the “Day of Family Purity.”

Photo: Nino Kikvadze / Publika

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 2:20 AM

2/ The Georgian Patriarchate established this alternative holiday in direct response to IDAHOBIT.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 2:20 AM

3/ On May 17, 2013, Orthodox priests and homophobic citizens violently attacked a small, peaceful rally organised by LGBTQ activists. It was one of the most significant acts of violence against Georgia’s LGBTQ+ community and sparked prolonged public and political debate.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 2:20 AM

4/ These discussions intensified in 2014, as the first anniversary of the attack approached.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 2:20 AM

5/ That year, the Patriarchate announced that the Georgian Orthodox Church would henceforth celebrate May 17 as the “Day of Family Purity.”

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 2:20 AM

6/ The move further solidified the position of homophobic elements in Georgian society. Despite efforts by the LGBTQ community, IDAHOBIT has not been publicly or widely observed in Georgia.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 2:20 AM

7/ Each year, far-right and homophobic groups threaten — and in some cases carry out — violence to disrupt any attempt at holding public events in support of LGBTQ rights.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 2:20 AM

8/ In recent years, this climate has been reinforced by the ruling Georgian Dream party. Under its leadership, police have repeatedly failed to ensure the safety of activists and citizens, making large-scale, public LGBTQ-supportive events nearly impossible.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 2:20 AM

🗣️ 🇩🇪Ambassador to Georgia, Peter Fischer, about Mzia Amglobeli’s case and free media.

On May 16, the ambassadors of Germany, Estonia and Sweden to #Georgia attended the court hearing of journalist and founder of Batumelebi/Netgazeti, Mzia Amaglobeli, at the Batumi City Court.

#RepressionUnderAttack

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) May 18, 2025 at 3:07 AM

Romania:

Romania said “russian shill go fuck yourself!” 🇷🇴❤️

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 4:09 PM

RESULT: Nicusor Dan, the centrist mayor of Bucarest, will be the next president of Romania.

A big loss for the far-right: its candidate George Simion got 41% in round one, but didn’t grow enough, & turnout surging worked against him. Simion is down 54.3% to 45.7% with 96% reporting.

— Taniel (@taniel.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 4:11 PM

Simion is a strong ally of other far-right politicians in Europe, such as Italy’s Meloni, and just campaigned with the Polish far-right presidential candidate this week.

JD Vance has also positioned himself as an ally of his candidacy.

— Taniel (@taniel.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 4:15 PM

I should say: Simion has claimed victory despite trailing by 9 percentage points with nearly all counted, and has tweeted he is the new president of Romania.

— Taniel (@taniel.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 4:22 PM

The now-near-final result shows Nicusor Dan winning by a slightly smaller margin than my earlier post, 53.7% to 46.3%.

There were a ton more voters than two weeks ago voting in Romania’s Western European Diaspora, & Simion crushed it there, esp. in Italy, explaining that shaved percentage point.

— Taniel (@taniel.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 8:35 PM

Congrats Romanians!🇷🇴

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 6:09 PM

Estonia:

Russia detained the Greek oil tanker Green Admire near Gogland Island on Sunday. The ship had left Estonia’s Sillamäe port and was following a route agreed by Russia, Estonia, and Finland for safe navigation, according to Estonia’s Foreign Ministry.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 11:32 AM

Back to Ukraine:

Ukraine’s military intel agency, warns Russia intends to conduct a training launch of an RS-24 “Yars” intercontinental ballistic missile overnight on May 19. It says the launch is meant to “intimidate Ukraine” and that the missile will be equipped with a training warhead. gur.gov.ua/content/takt…

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— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) May 18, 2025 at 9:09 AM

The warning from Ukraine’s military intelligence follows a rare public warning from the US Embassy in Kyiv, which put out an alert on May 9 warning of “a potentially significant air attack” targeting Ukraine. It’s unclear if the two warnings are related. bsky.app/profile/chri…

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— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) May 18, 2025 at 9:09 AM

273 drones detected, 88 shot down, 128 location lost/crashed/flew away, 1 still in the air as of 0800, according to Ukrainian Air Force. That leaves 56 unaccounted for – some must have hit targets.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 3:16 AM

Kyiv:

Last night’s Russian drone attack on the Kyiv region was one of the largest. A 27-year-old woman was killed, and her family, including her 4-year-old son, was wounded.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 7:34 AM

Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast:

In today’s russian attack on Kupyansk, Kharkiv region, 3 people were injured, and several households were destroyed.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 7:25 AM

Kharkiv:

Over 12,000 buildings in Kharkiv have suffered varying degrees of destruction as a result of attacks by russia, according to mayor Terekhov‼️

Russia keeps attacking Kharkiv and Kharkiv region daily, causing more deaths and destruction.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 11:11 AM

Kharkiv today.

I often post pictures of our daily life, showing that we’re alive against all odds. But this is our reality too: demolishing damaged buildings and digging through rubble. Russia continues to devastate our city and kill Kharkiv citizens.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 11:23 AM

Even as air raid alerts and bombings punctuated their days, Kharkiv schoolkids found a space for grace and beauty in their elegant prom waltz.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 2:54 PM

Nova Khakovka, Kherson Oblast:

AASM Hammer delivers a precision strike on the Russian base in Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region. t.me/soniah_hub/1…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 1:15 PM

Kramatorsk:

Russian strike drones have started reaching the Kramatorsk–Dobropillia highway, over 30 km from the frontline, according to Ukrainian channels. They are using fixed-wing “Molniya” UAVs or new “Tyuvik” drones — a smaller version of the Shahed.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 8:44 AM

Toretsk:

Ukrainian 100th Mechanized Brigade’s crew, using a captured 152mm 2A65 “Msta-B” howitzer, landed a sniper-like direct hit on a Russian assault trooper speeding on a motorcycle through a Toretsk street!

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 5:00 AM

Panorama of Toretsk, a Ukrainian city obliterated by Russian “liberators,” where bloody battles have raged for 11 months since June 18, 2024.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 18, 2025 at 6:13 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today.

Here is some adjacent material.

Friends,

I was looking for some light-hearted content to post tonight -all the recent news are tiresome&exhausting.

Here in Ukraine,we’re like these Ukrainian cats – always on alert but appearing calm

Please share a good book you’ve read recently, or a show/movie you enjoyed watching.Thank you!

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— Anton Gerashchenko (@antongerashchenko.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 3:57 PM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,179: Putin Keeps Probing for MushPost + Comments (5)

War for Ukraine Day 1,178: Russia Commits Another War Crime in Sumy

by Adam L Silverman|  May 17, 202511:13 pm| 14 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Quick housekeeping note: Another long day and I’m so completely fried it’s like I’m double battered and double fried. Imagine what would happen if the Belgians made deep fried Twinkies. So I’m going to just run through the basics again so I can go to sleep.

Russia attacked a civilian bus in Sumy earlier today:

Imagine the level of cynicism it took to strike an evacuation bus—to murder people who were simply trying to escape their army, to kill those whose lives they had already destroyed.

Well, Russia doesn’t need to imagine.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 6:20 AM

Shortly after that happened, this happened:

Trump: “If Putin didn’t get stuck in the mud with his army tanks all over the place, they would’ve been in Kyiv in 5 hours”

The president of the United States spreading russian propaganda point that honestly sounds dumb after 3+ years of full-scale war

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 6:33 AM

Trump: I have a great relationship with Putin. We’ll likely make a deal; I’m tired of endless meetings. Steve Witkoff did an incredible job, but I’m the only one who can handle this. Putin’s tired, looks bad, wants to seem strong. If his tanks didn’t get stuck, he’d be in Kyiv.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 4:12 AM

February in Ukraine is NOT mud season!

But wait, there’s more!

“A ceasefire will take place,” but will it, tho? 👀

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 11:14 AM

A ceasefire will not be taking place.

President Zelenskyy did not make an address today, nor hold a press conference. He did meet with PM Carney in Rome:

Zelenskyy has arrived in Rome and met with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 12:41 PM

First Lady Zelenska participated and address the Return, the Path to Mental Recovery conference.

show full post on front page

Georgia:

Day 171. Since the regime had their propaganda “Family Purity Day” and march today, their thugs vowed to not allow (us “gays”) to close Rustaveli tonight, as we do every day.

But we had other plans. ✊🏻 #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 1:19 PM

Propaganda loves calling us vandals. But not a single civilian vehicle or private property has been harmed in two years of pro-independence and pro-European protests in Georgia.

By contrast, regime thugs killed a person in 2021, injured many more & continuously harm property.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 8:10 AM

Clergy & parish members of Georgian Orthodox Church march to mark “family purity day.” Church introduced holiday in 2014 following a hate violence against people marking International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia, and Biphobia on May 17, 2013.
🎥 Nini Gabritchidze/Civil.ge

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— Civil.ge (@civil.ge) May 17, 2025 at 7:33 AM

Parallel gathering took place in front of parliament, with activists holding posters featuring those jailed over ongoing #GeorgiaProtests. Among them were family members of political prisoners.
📷 Nini Gabritchidze

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— Civil.ge (@civil.ge) May 17, 2025 at 7:36 AM

Last year, Georgian Dream government pronounced “family purity day” a public holiday while further cracking down on fundamental rights of LGBTQIA people. More: civil.ge/archives/640…

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— Civil.ge (@civil.ge) May 17, 2025 at 7:37 AM

Yesterday was DAY 170 of #GeorgiaProtests

Friends and enemies alike know by now that we are not going to stop.
And you can help us avoid costs by:

1. Non-engagement with the regime;

2. Sanctions, sanctions, sanctions;

3. Aiding independent media & CSOs with all possible means remaining.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 6:53 AM

Estonia:

Panel on shadow fleet at #LennartMeriConference. Estonian DM said this week was the first time that Russia had sent a fighter jet to protect a ship in the shadow fleet. The ship Estonia tackled was “without a flag”, he says (my understanding is that it had two spurious flags).

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 3:12 AM

Lithuanian FM says many cable incidents in Baltic Sea “happened because the crew didn’t know what they were doing”. Says that EU, US, UK sanctions on shadow fleet have less than 50% overlap, so lots of ships still being missed. #lennartmericonference

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 3:26 AM

John Mead, dep cdr at NATO Brunssun. Says Baltic sentry has been NATO’s first major op out of Finland and Sweden & “seamless”. Points to brand new HQ in Rostock doing integration across Baltic. NATO introducing “Maven smart system” – AI command & ctrl, by Palantir – next week, during an exercise

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 3:35 AM

Estonian DM says they’ve looked into seeking changes to UNCLOS to counter the shadow fleet but big risk is that countries like China would exploit that to inspect every vessel sailing in the South China Sea. “It’s not only for the Baltic Sea, but it’s a global impact.”

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 3:40 AM

Lt-Gen John Mead: “Most of the levers against the shadow fleet are going to be economic” such as enforcement of sanctions. Says threats to undersea infrastructure not same as shadow fleet, even if the issues sometimes overlap . NATO mission has hailed 1,800 ships to check status.

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 3:48 AM

German MP Roderich Kiesewetter says that the country’s rules impose severe constraints on how suspected Russian drone flights can be shot down in German airspace. “To show deterrence is to adapt the domestic law.”

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 3:53 AM

Estonian DM: When Russian jets entered Estonian airspace this week we had one minute. By the time we would’ve scrambled they’d have been out and we wouldn’t have engaged in international airspace.

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 3:59 AM

Italy:

🇮🇹🇺🇦According to multiple Italian media outlets, Italy is preparing its 11th military aid package to Ukraine, which reportedly will include:

•400 M113 armored personnel carriers (APCs)
•A SAMP/T air defense system
•Additional ammunition and supplies formiche.net/2025/05/ucra…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 6:09 AM

The Coalition of the Willing:

Eleven weeks ago a “coalition of the willing” gathered together to discuss what they were willing to do. Since then they haven’t appeared to be willing to do anything at all. 🔗👇

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— Gabrielius Landsbergis (@glandsbergis.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 5:40 AM

The Coalition of the Willing doesn’t seem willing to do anything at all.
Read the full article:
landsbergis.com/the-coalitio…

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— Gabrielius Landsbergis (@glandsbergis.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 5:40 AM

From Landsbergis’s own site:

Eleven weeks ago a “coalition of the willing” gathered together to discuss what they were willing to do. Highlights of their progress so far:

Macron had to remind his colleagues that sovereign countries do not need Putin’s permission to deploy troops in Ukraine.

Poland opposed deploying troops anyway.

Merz said Taurus was on the table, then took it off.

A decision was made to issue a ceasefire ultimatum, but then a decision was made not to enforce it. This was maybe due to nobody having a plan to enforce it, which raises questions about the wisdom of issuing it.

Trump, perhaps worried that Europeans would steal his Nobel Peace Prize, torpedoed their plan and backed a different idea, which didn’t work, so he denied backing it. His position is now “nothing’s going to happen until Putin and I get together”. This sounds a bit too much like 1938, you might say.

Merz says frozen assets will be used “if” that’s legal. But we have known it’s legal for a very long time. Why couldn’t he just say the assets will be used, without the “if”?

Putin was threatened with “crippling” sanctions, which later became a threat to initiate preparations of crippling sanctions, which subsequently turned into an ordinary round of sanctions that are just as crippling as being poked with soft cushions in a Monty Python sketch.

While I obviously wish them all the success in the world, I am wondering why is it so hard to find evidence that the coalition of the willing is actually willing to do anything meaningful, let alone gamechanging.

For example, we have heard a lot about the thousand ships of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet. And after months of negotiations, Europe has managed to agree on sanctioning fewer than 200. Add that to the 100 previously sanctioned and we are fast approaching 300! Out of a thousand.

That means 700 ships are still sailing from St. Petersburg to wherever—carrying Russian oil and bringing back yuan, rupees, or whatever currency their buyers use. And that means Russian coffers are still being filled with money.

Putin understands how EU rules (don’t) work, and guys—he’s not exactly trembling.

We can’t even make serious progress on Ukraine’s EU accession. In fact, we are going backwards. The EU will reintroduce pre-war tariffs on Ukraine starting June 6. This decision will cost Ukrainians more than €3 billion. At the same time, high-ranking officials travel to Ukraine to announce a €1 billion support package. This makes less than no sense.

In summary: Although we heard a lot of words and read a lot of announcements since JD Vance attacked Europe in Munich, there are no troops, almost no weapons, no frozen assets, no air defence, no crippling sanctions, no accession, new tariffs, and no Taurus.

So what is actually going on? I am concerned that the answer is “nothing”.

Or maybe it’s even worse than that. Maybe that is the plan. Maybe nobody is “willing” to do anything more than talk about being willing.

More at the link.

Anyone check to see if Jake Sullivan is advising these folks?

Depressing yet accurate summation of European impotence on enforcing their red line, which turned a hue of pink. Enormously frustrating.

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— Marc Polymeropoulos (@mpolymer1.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 6:37 AM

Back to Ukraine:

I’ve been reading about the planned 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner of war exchange between Ukraine and Russia.

It’s striking that three categories are involved: civilians, soldiers—and CHILDREN.

Once again, Russia has stolen Ukrainian children to fully treat them as hostages.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 4:00 PM

Ukrainian children must be returned home. And must not be used as hostages.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 4:00 PM

Ukraine’s nightly reality: More than half of the country on alert due to a wave of Russian/Iranian Shahed flying bomb drones sweeping across the country. This happens practically every night now – but it doesn’t hit the headlines unless there’s a particularly horrific atrocity.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 6:18 PM

Seven Russian kamikaze drones intercepted just by a single anti-drone unit during three days.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 6:14 AM

Donetsk Oblast:

A Russian soldier on the Donetsk front tried to shoot down a Ukrainian drone from the 28th Brigade with his rifle — and ended up peppering his own ass with shrapnel instead.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 2:03 PM

The Kursk cross border offensive:

The “Black Swift” unit of Ukraine’s 103rd Territorial Defense Brigade took out a group of Russian forces in the Kursk direction. Seven Russian pioneers went into a basement — none came back out.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 11:06 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

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War for Ukraine Day 1,178: Russia Commits Another War Crime in SumyPost + Comments (14)

War for Ukraine Day 1,177: A Brief Friday Night Update

by Adam L Silverman|  May 16, 202511:46 pm| 12 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A quick housekeeping note: Sorry this is coming in late. It was another long day here. Got a few more of them and then things should start to settle back to normal. I’m just going to run through the basics tonight.

The mid-level Russian functionaries that Putin sent to Istanbul decided to make Pytin’s objectives explicitly clear.

“We don’t want war, but we’re ready to fight for a year, two, three—however long it takes. We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?”

Russia doesn’t want peace. If this wasn’t obvious from the fact they they started the war, it should be from this sentence

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 1:21 PM

“Maybe more of your loved ones will die”:

russia’s threat at #Ukraine peace talks revealed

russia says it’s ready to fight “forever”-despite nearly a million casualties.

euromaidanpress.com/2025/05/16/m…

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— Eugene McParland 🇺🇦 (@eugenemcparland.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 1:11 PM

From EuroMaidan Press:

“We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?” That was the message delivered by Russian presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky to the Ukrainian delegation during recent peace talks in Istanbul, according to The Economist’s Oliver Carroll, citing an informed source.

Medinsky, who led the Russian side, also reportedly said Russia “does not want war” but is ready to fight for “a year, two, three—however long it takes.” Another statement attributed to him warned: “Maybe some of those sitting here at this table will lose more of their loved ones. Russia is prepared to fight forever.”

These remarks came during a rare face-to-face meeting—the first between Ukrainian and Russian negotiators in more than three years. The two-hour session resulted in a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange agreement, confirmed by Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, though no implementation date was announced.

According to Carroll’s report, the Russian delegation conditioned a ceasefire on Ukraine withdrawing all forces from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia—regions claimed by Moscow since 2022 but only partially occupied. Ukrainian diplomatic sources said Russia also threatened to seize Kharkiv and Sumy, expanding its territorial demands.

A source told Reuters the proposals were “detached from reality,” while a Kyiv official told The Telegraph that Russia considered Ukrainian withdrawal a “minimum requirement” for any progress.

Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Honcharenko also claimed that the Russian delegation issued threats to take Sumy region during the meeting.

Despite these allegations, neither delegation publicly mentioned any threats following the talks. Both sides acknowledged only the prisoner swap. Medinsky confirmed the deal and noted Ukraine’s request for a presidential-level meeting, but no additional negotiations were announced.

More at the link.

There’s a couple of different things to keep in mind. The first is that Medinsky and his colleagues are just mid-level equivalents of Lavrov. They are trusted to go out and weaponize Russia’s diplomatic power, but they are not in the inner circle around Putin and have no real influence within the Kremlin. The second is that none of these demands are even remotely surprising. Even though it is now completely clear to everyone that Putin cannot achieve his war objectives, he will demand that they simply be delivered to him or else. And then he’ll make additional threats and demands tethered to them. He can’t be negotiated with and, as a result, Russia cannot be negotiated with because negotiations arenot meant to get all the parties to their best alternative negotiated agreement, bur merely to drag things out another day, week, month, or year because he is convinced that the US, the EU, and NATO will either eventually run out of interest in providing support or one of the nativist, neo-fascist parties he supports either overtly or covertly will win an election and make things easier for him. He’s probing for mush and if he finds it he will order Russia to advance further until the probing hits steel.

President Zelenskyy addressed the European Political Community Summit today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Number One Priority Is a Full, Unconditional, and Honest Ceasefire – Speech by the President at the European Political Community Summit

16 May 2025 – 15:52

Thank you so much, dear friend, thank you so much, Edi, Prime Minister Rama, thank you!

And thank you, Albania, for hosting us today, not just in a beautiful country, but in a country that believes in Europe and stands for its future.

Dear friends!

Thank you all for your support, and I appreciate that we share the same understanding – this war, the war of Russian against Ukraine, must be ended as soon as possible, and in a just way. Ukraine needs peace. Peace in Europe depends on whether Ukraine will get it.

All of you know that this week we had a real chance to take important steps toward ending this war – if only Putin hadn’t been afraid to come to Türkiye. I was in Ankara yesterday – and thanks for participation and hosting us, President Erdoğan – and I was ready for a direct meeting with Putin – whether in Ankara or in Istanbul – and not just for a meeting, but to resolve all the important issues, to my mind. But he didn’t agree to anything. I mean, Putin. You can also see that the Russian delegation that came to Istanbul is of a very low level. None of them are people who actually make decisions in Russia. Still, I sent our team to Istanbul, led by Ukraine’s Minister of Defense, at least to see if those Russians can actually decide anything. Our number one priority is a full, unconditional, and honest ceasefire. This must happen immediately to stop the killing and create a solid basis for diplomacy, first of all. And if the Russian representatives in Istanbul today cannot even agree to that – to ceasefire, to this clearly necessary first step – then it will be 100% clear that Putin continues to undermine diplomacy. If that’s not the case, there must be at least some result today, starting with a ceasefire. The Ukrainian delegation has a mandate to make decisions.

As we saw yesterday, Russia sent almost the same people it sent in 2022. This shows that Russia hasn’t changed its basic approach – they make many statements, many threats, but solve nothing. They’re doing everything they can to turn this Istanbul meeting into a staged, empty process – just like the ones in 2022. It’s not us or Western leaders who are disrupting the negotiations, as the Russians have been claiming for years – it’s Russians who send empty heads to the talks, and that’s what destroys the meaning of diplomacy. So if it turns out that the Russian delegation really is just theatrical and can’t deliver any results today, the world must respond. There needs to be a strong reaction, including sanctions against Russia’s energy sector and banks. Pressure must continue to rise until real progress is made.

Ukraine is ready to take all realistic steps to end this war. I call on Putin to give his delegation real authority.

We need a full stop to the killing – long enough to give diplomacy a real chance. Secondly, we must build at least a minimum level of trust in the negotiation process. This can be done by releasing prisoners of war, returning Ukrainian children taken by Russia, and releasing civilian hostages currently held by the Russian side. Third, we need to clearly define which issues must be handled at the leadership level – not below. We all know who makes the real decisions in Russia. Fourth, together with the leaders and countries who are here with us today, we’ve begun to create a new security architecture for Ukraine and all of Europe. I thank everyone who is on board. Now it’s time to move to very practical steps. And fifth — the United States. President Trump wants to end this war. We need to keep working closely with the President and stay as coordinated as possible. Long-term U.S. support is also essential. An American backstop is needed. It’s important that we all work together on every level to make that happen.

Of course, I will keep you informed throughout the day about what is happening in Istanbul and whether there’s any chance the Russian delegation will take real steps to stop the killing and bring the war to an end.

Thank you, Edi, again for the invitation.

First Lady Zelenska gave an interview to the author’s project by Marichka Padalko:

Georgia:

Day 170 of continuous protests in Tbilisi.
#GeorgiaProtests

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 4:25 PM

1/ Medical expert Givi Chkhartishvili stated that redness is not an objective sign of injury.

He examined Irakli Dgebuadze and Mzia Amaglobeli on January 12 and was testified today at the Mzia’s trial.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:51 AM

3/ Mzia Amaglobeli, the founder and director of the online media outlets Batumelebi and Netgazeti, is currently in criminal detention for slapping Irakli Dgebuadze.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:51 AM

3/ The expert stated that Irakli Dgebuadze did not display any objective signs of injury, whereas Mzia Amaglobeli had bruises on her left shoulder, which she sustained on January 12.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:51 AM

4/ Regarding the redness, Chkhartishvili explained that since redness is not considered an objective sign of injury, he did not assess it or include it in his report.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:51 AM

5/ He added that he does not recall whether Irakli Dgebuadze had any redness at the time of the examination, but even if he had remembered, he still would not have documented it.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:51 AM

6/ “I probably have redness on my face right now, but no one hit me,” the expert said.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:51 AM

On May 16, in Batumi, Austrian Member of the European Parliament Lena Schilling(@lenaats.bsky.social) was attending the court hearing of the founder of Batumelebi/Netgazeti, journalist Mzia Amaglobeli.

Before the hearing began, Lena Schilling stated that she is in Batumi to support Mzia Amaglobeli

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) May 16, 2025 at 10:48 AM

🗣️ Ambassador of Sweden to Georgia, Anna Lyberg

On May 16, the ambassadors of Sweden, Germany, and Estonia to #Georgia attended the court hearing of journalist and founder of Batumelebi/Netgazeti, Mzia Amaglobeli, at the Batumi City Court.

#RepressionUnderAttack

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) May 16, 2025 at 11:36 AM

🗣️ Ambassador of Estonia to Georgia, Marge Mardisalu-Kahar.

On May 16, the ambassadors of Estonia, Sweden and Germany to #Georgia attended the court hearing of journalist and founder of Batumelebi/Netgazeti, Mzia Amaglobeli, at the Batumi City Court.

#RepressionUnderAttack

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) May 16, 2025 at 11:56 AM

Physical violence against family members of regime prisoners and their supporters is a new normal at the regime courts. #terrorinGeorgia

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 6:12 AM

The US:

“Putin is doing just enough to convince Trump he’s engaged in this effort to find peace in Ukraine, while also doing as much as possible to make sure it goes nowhere. And Trump is falling for it.”
w/ top crew @maxseddon.bsky.social @henryjfoy.ft.com @guychazan.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/3a83…

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— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) May 16, 2025 at 4:17 PM

From The Financial Times:

In parallel to a brutal war along a 1,000km front, Russia and Ukraine are locked in a titanic diplomatic battle to persuade Donald Trump that the other is the real impediment to peace.

So Vladimir Putin took a big risk over the last week, slow rolling US negotiators over a peace proposal, according to officials familiar with the discussions, then refusing to turn up for talks with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Turkey that he himself had publicly initiated.

So far, the Russian leader’s refusal to engage on terms set by others has been met with little resistance — and certainly not enough to compel concessions or alter the course of his war.

The clearest sign of that came when US President Donald Trump seemed to excuse the Russian leader’s no-show on Thursday and simultaneously questioned the whole point of the Russia-Ukraine talks, saying: “Nothing’s gonna happen until Putin and I get together.”

It was a gift to Putin, who has long sought a one-on-one meeting with a president determined to normalise US-Russian relations. For the Ukrainians, it revived their worst fears — that Trump will seek to cut a deal with Putin over their heads and sell Ukraine down the river.

“Putin is doing just enough to convince Trump that he is engaged in this effort to find peace in Ukraine, while also doing as much as possible to make sure it goes nowhere,” said a senior European diplomat involved in the negotiations between western capitals. “And Trump is falling for it.”

That suspicion is shared by some of America’s closest allies. Putin, German defence minister Boris Pistorius said this week, was “trying to lead the American president down the garden path” by refusing to come to Istanbul. “I’m pretty sure that the American president can’t be happy about that,” he told reporters in Berlin.

Much more at the link.

“The world will become much safer in 2–3 weeks,” Trump said. “I’ll meet with Putin as soon as we can arrange it,” he added.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 5:12 AM

The world will be no safer in two to three weeks than it is now. All that is going to happen is Putin is going to be able to drag things out for another two to three weeks.

Denial is not just a river in Egypt.

Obligatory:

Powerful op-ed by ex U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink:

“Unfortunately, the policy since the beginning of the Trump administration has been to put pressure on the victim, Ukraine, rather than on the aggressor, Russia…”

www.freep.com/story/opinio…

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 2:24 PM

From The Detroit Free Press:

I just came home to Michigan from three years in the toughest job of my life ― serving as the American Ambassador to Ukraine ― supporting our democratic ally against brutal, unprovoked aggression by Russia.

I have proudly served five presidents ― Republicans and Democrats ― to make sure the United States is the strongest, greatest country that the world has ever known.

I respect the president’s right and responsibility to determine U.S. foreign policy ― with proper checks and balances by U.S. Congress. It is the role of America’s Foreign Service to execute that policy. Unfortunately, the policy since the beginning of the Trump administration has been to put pressure on the victim, Ukraine, rather than on the aggressor, Russia.

As such, I could no longer in good faith carry out the administration’s policy and felt it was my duty to step down. After nearly three decades serving our country, I resigned as our ambassador to Ukraine.

I cannot stand by while a country is invaded, a democracy bombarded, and children killed with impunity. I believe that the only way to secure U.S. interests is to stand up for democracies and to stand against autocrats. Peace at any price is not peace at all ― it is appeasement. And history has taught us time and again that appeasement does not lead to safety, security or prosperity. It leads to more war and suffering.

Much more at the link.

Back to Ukraine.

JDAM air strike by MiG-29 on the Russian positions t.me/soniah_hub/1…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 9:04 AM

Russian occupied Crimea:

Crimea is detonating 👀🔥

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:04 AM

Ammunition being ejected from the explosion site in Perevalne.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 5:45 AM

💥/1. Explosion at Russian military base in Pereval’ne in Crimea which was attacked by drones this morning.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 3:41 AM

/2. Another view on the detonation of the Russian military base in Perevalne, Crimea, after morning’s drone attack.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 3:49 AM

/3. Ammunition from detonating Russian military base flying in the air.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 4:26 AM

/4. Russian military films exploding military warehouses in Crimea

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 5:22 AM

Devastating blasts in Crimea: ammo depot in flames, major transport routes closures #Ukraine

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— AmplifyUkraine 🔱🇺🇦 (@amplifyukraine.eu) May 16, 2025 at 10:30 AM

From UAWire:

Morning of May 16 began with reports of explosions near Simferopol, Sevastopol, and several other Crimean locations. Telegram channel Crimean Wind reported that an ammunition depot in Perevalnoye was set ablaze, leading authorities to shut down the Simferopol-Alushta highway, a major artery passing through the afflicted area.

Crimean Wind also posted a video showing what is purportedly the fire engulfing the ammunition store of Russia’s 126th Coastal Defense Brigade at Perevalnoye. According to Krym. Realii, the base suffered two prior assaults in 2023 alone. The channel further reported, citing reports from it subscribers, that the emergency services were heading towards the scene.

The Russian Ministry of Transport initially noted partial highway closures opening back up by 8 a.m. Moscow time.

Renowned OSINT source Dnipro Osint also confirmed that the videos posted by the Crimean Wind showed the fire at the 126th Brigade’s ammunition depot. A precise geo-int analysis concluded explosions occurred at a zone identified as a small vehicle park on the military premises.

The saga continued with reports of explosions reverberating throughout Yalta, Gurzuf, Alupka, Alushta, Cape Fiolent, Balaklava, Bakhchisaray, Kozachka, and the Belbek and Kacha airfields.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense announced that 21 drones were intercepted over the peninsula, while an additional 43 were neutralized above the Black Sea waters.

Kupyansk:

Kupyansk and its surrounding areas were again targeted by Russian shelling last night, resulting in the injury of an 88-year-old woman.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:29 AM

Kyiv:

Woke to anti-aircraft gunfire and then loud but far off explosion in Kyiv this morning – video shows drone that was downed in west of Ukrainian capital. Wonder how “peace talks” will go today…

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 12:42 AM

The Kursk cross border offensive:

Ukrainian SSO fighters, Bombus Balista unit, hit a Russian Ka-52 helicopter with an FPV drone using remote detonation in Sukhinovka, Kursk Oblast. The aerial detonation occurred on approach to the target.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 1:35 PM

Approximately, Kursk direction: On May 15, Russians attacked with armor, infantry, moto/quad vehicles. Ukrainian 92nd Brigade defenders crushed them with mines, artillery, drones. In the air, Ukrainian forces smashed Russian gear.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 9:12 AM

Donetsk Oblast:

Ukrainian fighters of K-2 Battalion, 54th Brigade, keep destroying Russian “sheds” in Donetsk! Foggy landscapes are marked by smoke and dust from the wrecked scrap of Russia’s army.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 11:10 AM

Podolsk, Moscow Oblast:

Sounds of explosions were heard this morning in Podolsk, near Moscow.👀🔥

Russian media reports that warehouses caught fire at a machine testing station.

Local telegram channels say that at least three explosions were heard initially, followed by a fire and more detonations.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:12 AM

A sudden fire erupted at a machinery testing station warehouse near Moskow. Also, Crimean Wind reports explosions in Crimea: 126th Russian Coast Guard Brigade depots in Perevalne burn and detonate.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 3:01 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

🇺🇦🐶 I’m so happy to see you guys!

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 3:26 PM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,177: A Brief Friday Night UpdatePost + Comments (12)

War for Ukraine Day 1,176: Happy Vyshyvanka Day!

by Adam L Silverman|  May 15, 202510:30 pm| 12 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Quick housekeeping note: I’m fried. It was another long day. Not bad, just very long. So I’m going to just run through the basics so I can get cleaned up and rack out.

What they doin ova der is Vyvyshanka Day!

Vyshyvanka Day in Kharkiv ❤️🇺🇦

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 11:08 AM

Vyshyvanka is the genetic code of Ukrainians💛

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 3:00 PM

President Zelenskyy traveled to Turkiye today. He met with Erdogan and also held a press conference. Here’s that video:

show full post on front page

First Lady Zelenska traveled to Volyn Oblast for the Day of Joint Action as part of Mental Health Awareness Month.

Georgia:

Rustaveli avenue is blocked for the 169th night in a row, despite cold and spring rain. ✅ #GeorgiaProtests

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 1:58 PM

Please, have a look at the unlimited sadistic imagination of the regime police in Georgia. Personal stories below. #terrorinGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 3:05 PM

And this. bsky.app/profile/rusu…

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 3:06 PM

GD seems to be preparing grounds for expelling Western diplomats.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 4:50 AM

The US:

Donald Trump has said that “nothing is going to happen” on a Russia-Ukraine peace deal until he and Vladimir Putin meet, damping expectations for talks between Russian and Ukrainian ministers due in Turkey.
www.ft.com/content/a590…

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— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) May 15, 2025 at 11:14 AM

From The Financial Times: (emphasis mine)

Donald Trump has said that “nothing is going to happen” on a Russia-Ukraine peace deal until he and Vladimir Putin meet, damping down expectations for talks between Russian and Ukrainian ministers due in Turkey.

The US president’s comments threatened to thrust the latest peace efforts into disarray, as Russian and Ukrainian negotiators were set to meet for the first time since 2022.

“Look, nothing’s going to happen until Putin and I get together, OK?” Trump told reporters on Air Force One before landing in the United Arab Emirates on Thursday as part of his Middle East tour. He said Putin “obviously . . . wasn’t going to go” unless the US president was also in attendance.

Trump’s remarks were later echoed by US secretary of state Marco Rubio, who said the US did not have “high expectations of what will happen tomorrow”.

Speaking in Turkey, where he is attending a meeting of Nato foreign ministers, Rubio said the US had hoped there would be “direct engagement” between the Russians and Ukrainians.

“That was not to be the case, or if it is, it’s not at the levels we had hoped it would be at,” he said.

“I frankly do not believe that we’re going to have a breakthrough here until President Trump sits face to face with President Putin and determines what his intentions are.”

Trump had previously said he was open to taking a detour for the talks in Turkey, but decided not to after the Russian president made clear at the eleventh hour that he would not attend.

“I don’t believe anything’s going to happen, whether you like it or not, until he and I get together,” Trump said on Thursday. “But we’re going to have to get it solved because too many people are dying.”

More at the link.

I want to focus in on this bit:

“I frankly do not believe that we’re going to have a breakthrough here until President Trump sits face to face with President Putin and determines what his intentions are.”

Putin’s intentions are very simple: to take Ukraine, to genocidally destroy everything in it and about it that is unique, and absorb into not just Russia, but his concept of the Ruskiy Mir/Russian world. Then after both stealing Ukraine and its resources, as well as destroying its culture and society, use it as a stepping stone to retake the other parts of the Soviet Union or imperial Russia that Putin believes either are Russia or are part of Russia’s historic near abroad and sphere of influence. The Baltics, Finland, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc. That’s Putin’s intent. It is not hard to discern because he routinely spends hours at a time expounding on it on live Russian TV.

The US is proposing to resume the work of the Russia-NATO Council “within the framework of a Ukrainian settlement.”

It’s worth recalling that at the same time, Ukraine’s allies will likely not invite Zelenskyy to the NATO summit in order to avoid angering Trump.
🤯🤯🤯

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 8:36 AM

“Why would Putin go if I’m not going?”
🤦‍♀️🤡

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 6:16 AM

Again, more Western pressure on Ukraine to compromise (being told to send high-ranking officials to meet a 3rd-tier Russian delegation) rather than punishment for fascist Russia for making a mockery of the peace process.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 3:40 PM

As bad as Biden and his natsec team were on Ukraine, this is worse. Because for Trump and, as a result, for his natsec team, Ukraine isn’t a subject to be interacted with, but an object to be manipulated so that Trump can do some sort of deal with Putin, which is what he’s been trying to do since the beginning of his first term.

Back to Ukraine.

❗️“We have a top-level delegation, while the Russian one looks more like a mock-up,” – Zelensky.

“We’ll see whether they even have a mandate to make decisions. After my meeting with Erdoğan, we’ll reassess the format.”

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) May 15, 2025 at 5:20 AM

As the circus in Istanbul continues, russia just launched over 100 drones onto Ukraine, and the number is expected to increase.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 3:52 PM

I just learned that callsign “white” (Белый), the commander of the Akhmat unit who in the summer of 2022 “castrated” and murdered a Ukrainian POW, has been reported dead. Happy Vyshyvanka Day.

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— Michael Sheldon (@michaelsheldon.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 3:29 PM

Good riddance to bad rubbish.

Optic fiber drones inspect Russian base with tanks from the inside. t.me/BBpS_28/827

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 4:06 PM

Russian assault group in thermal cloaks destroyed by the 63rd Brigade. t.me/DeepStateUA/…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 12:50 PM

HUR also showed it’s Magura naval drone with an installed machine gun.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 7:15 AM

Kharkiv:

Every single day in Kharkiv region:

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 5:58 PM

Sumy:

Authorities in Sumy warn Russia is planning to attack the city about now, and say they even have information about the targets from intelligence sources – 7 and 9 Pryvokzalna Square, and 2 Shevchenko Avenue. They urge people to leave the areas.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 10:11 AM

Update:

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 3:47 PM

Lysychansk:

✈️💣 The destruction of the command post of an entire Russian regiment in a residential area of ​​Lysychansk by the crew of Su-27, – Soniashnyk

🔝It is claimed that this is a record-breaking airstrike, as the damage was inflicted 60 km from the front line.

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— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 11:12 AM

The Kursk cross border offensive:

In the morning, unidentified missiles completely destroyed a bridge in the village of Snagost, Kursk region — but the Russians are having a great time nonetheless.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 8:58 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos tonight.

Here is some adjacent material.

🇺🇦 Biopark in Odesa is when you don’t have to fly to Africa! ✈️ 🐾
Here you can see lions, giraffes, zebras, meerkats and even kangaroos almost without cages! 🦁🦒🦓
Animals live in spacious enclosures, and some can be fed directly from the hands 🥕

[image or embed]

— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 8:47 AM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,176: Happy Vyshyvanka Day!Post + Comments (12)

War for Ukraine Day 1,175: Putin Isn’t Going to Turkey Because He’s a Big (Little) Chicken

by Adam L Silverman|  May 14, 202510:31 pm| 9 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A quick housekeeping note: The good news is that today went far better than I expected, but it was still long and I’m exhausted. So I’m just going to run through the basics.

As of 9:55 PM EDT/4:55 AM local time in Ukraine air raid alerts are up over almost all of central and western Ukraine for Russian drone swarms.

Putin is not going to Turkey to meet with President Zelenskyy:

Trump will have to generate an infeasibly massive amount of spin to be able to blame Zelensky for Putin chickening out of the Turkey talks.

www.bbc.com/news/article…

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 5:23 PM

From The BBC:

Russian President Vladimir Putin is not among the names listed by the Kremlin as being due to attend peace talks on the war in Ukraine in Istanbul on Thursday, despite calls from Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky for him to attend.

Russia’s delegation will instead be headed by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, according to the Kremlin statement.

Zelensky had previously said he would attend the talks and meet Putin in person if the Russian president agreed, and said he would do everything he could to ensure the face-to-face meeting took place.

US President Donald Trump will also not be attending, according to media reports, despite previously hinting he would if Putin were there.

Zelensky will be in the Turkish capital Ankara on Thursday to meet President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

He said he would attend direct talks in Istanbul with Russia, but only if Putin also attended.

“I am waiting to see who will come from Russia, and then I will decide which steps Ukraine should take. So far, the signals from them in the media are unconvincing,” he said in his nightly video address on Wednesday.

Putin and Zelensky have not met in person since December 2019. Russia and Ukraine last held direct negotiations in March 2022 in Istanbul, shortly after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of its neighbour.

Fighting has raged in Ukraine since then. Russian forces have slowly expanded the amount of territory they control over the past year, mostly in the east of Ukraine.

On Sunday Putin called for direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey’s largest city “without pre-conditions”. Zelensky then announced he would go in person and expected the Russian president to travel as well.

Putin’s suggestion of direct talks in Istanbul followed Western powers’ call for a 30-day ceasefire, after European leaders met in Kyiv on Saturday.

After Trump called for Ukraine to accept the offer on Sunday, Zelensky said he would travel there himself.

“There is no point in prolonging the killings. And I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday. Personally,” Zelensky wrote in a social media post.

More at the link.

Putin not attending was the most foregone of conclusions.

When delegations meet in Istanbul:

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 5:05 PM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

I Am Waiting to See Who Will Come From Russia, and Then I Will Decide Which Steps Ukraine Should Take – Address by the President

14 May 2025 – 20:11

Dear Ukrainians!

Briefly about today. I want to thank the defenders of our skies for protecting us from “Shahed” drones and all other attack UAVs. Over a hundred “Shaheds” were launched overnight – a significant number were shot down. Not all of them, but every successful shoot-down saves our people and protects our infrastructure. There were also missile strikes today – Russian ballistics. While the whole world awaits a simple “yes” from Putin in response to the offer of direct talks – he continues to strike Ukraine. There is no military logic behind this. This is clear. It brings him nothing – and it never will. Russia is only prolonging the war, prolonging these killings. And I want to thank every country, every leader who is now putting pressure on Russia, so that the shelling finally stops, so that meaningful negotiations can take place at a level where real decisions can be made. To everyone helping peace and helping diplomacy – thank you.

Today, there was a very important statement from Pope Leo XIV, expressing the Vatican’s willingness to play a mediatory role. The Vatican can help diplomacy. There is support for a direct meeting from Global South leaders – and that voice is being heard. We also know China’s position regarding a ceasefire and negotiations. The position of the United States and Europe is absolutely clear. In fact, it is now more evident than ever to everyone in the world since the beginning of the full-scale war – it is evident that the sole remaining obstacle to peace is Russia’s lack of clear will to do it.

Today, we held several meetings with the team regarding the format in Türkiye. I am waiting to see who will come from Russia, and then I will decide which steps Ukraine should take. So far, the signals from them in the media are unconvincing. But we also hear that President Trump is considering attending the meeting in Türkiye. That could become the strongest argument. This week really may change a lot — but only may… Everything is being decided right now.

I want to commend our warriors. At this time, it is very important. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi delivered reports today on the situation at the front – across all directions. Every day, there are over a hundred battles. The heaviest fighting is in the Pokrovsk sector and other areas in our Donetsk region. We are continuing our active operations in the Kursk and Belgorod regions – we are proactively defending Ukraine’s border areas. But all these combat actions are not our choice – they are our defense, defense against the occupier. The answers to all the questions about this war – why it began and why it continues – all these answers lie in Moscow. How the war ends depends on the world. Ukraine is ready for any format of negotiations, and we are not afraid of meetings. Tomorrow – in Türkiye.

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Day 168. They tried to prevent us from closing Rustaveli, our basal threshold of protesting. As we say, “Rustaveli is indispensable but insufficient [to defeat the regime]”

Much more people rushed out than on a daily basis lately.

“Until the end!” – we chant.

#GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 1:54 PM

The police had the order to arrest disobeying ones today as they wanted to prevent the Rustaveli blocking.

And look at those people just promenading their way into the street, unbothered. 💃🏻

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 2:30 PM

1/ Levan Tsutskiridze, chairman of the political organisation Freedom Square, says that over the past two months, they have been denied registration as a political party twice by the National Agency of Public Registry.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 8:29 AM

2/ According to him, this reflects Georgian Dream’s fear of new political forces and individuals “who enter politics with a clean record.”

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 8:29 AM

3/ This resolution is one of the changes mentioned by Mamuka Mdinaradze in his discussions about declaring the United National Movement and its satellite parties unconstitutional.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 8:29 AM

Georgia’s student movements call on the opposition to not participate in the upcoming October local elections.

“We must not break the isolation the regime finds itself in. The opposition’s participation in the local elections would amount to granting legitimacy to the regime.”

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 5:11 AM

A 32-year-old participant of #GeorgiaProtests recalls rape threats against himself & family by police during December 2 crackdown.

They threatened to rape him with fireworks and told in graphic details what they would do to his wife and children as they would learn his address.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 12:31 PM

The US:

“The Americans had this simplistic idea — let’s charm Russia, put pressure on Zelenskyy, and we’ll get a deal,” said Wolfgang Ischinger, the former German ambassador to the US to whom Vance made his comment at last week’s forum. “It turned out that simply charming Russia is not enough.”

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— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) May 14, 2025 at 12:35 AM

From The Financial Times: (emphasis mine)

When US vice-president JD Vance was asked about the war in Ukraine at a foreign policy forum in Washington last week, diplomats were expecting Maga-style criticism of Kyiv and veiled sympathy for Russia.

Instead, they heard something quite different. Vance said of a set of Russian proposals to end the conflict: “We think they’re asking for too much.”

Attendees were surprised. Vance was one of the main protagonists in the now infamous Oval Office showdown in February, when he tore into Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and accused him of failing to show enough gratitude to the US for its support — a scene that seemed to presage a complete rupture in relations between Kyiv and Washington.

Vance’s comments were part of a noticeable shift in tone by the Trump administration. US officials appear increasingly impatient with Vladimir Putin, as suspicions grow that the Russian leader, rather than Zelenskyy, may be the biggest obstacle to peace.

“The Americans had this simplistic idea — let’s charm Russia, put pressure on Zelenskyy, and we’ll get a deal,” said Wolfgang Ischinger, the former German ambassador to the US to whom Vance made his comment at last week’s forum. “It turned out that simply charming Russia is not enough.”

But Trump’s most desired objective — a ceasefire that could lead to peace negotiations and an end to the war — has so far eluded him. Putin has rejected international calls to halt the fighting, despite threats from western powers — including the US — of tough new sanctions.

Russia’s apparent intransigence is proving an irritant to Trump, say observers. “You hear the frustration in [his] communication,” said Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia. “He may be understanding that he has given up too much and not gotten anything in return.”

“Trump definitely sees that Putin isn’t playing ball,” said Eric Green, a former aide to president Joe Biden at the National Security Council who is now a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think-tank. “But I’m not convinced that the consequence of that is going to be meaningful pressure on Putin.”

Ischinger said he was “delighted” that Vance had shifted on Russia and that the US and European positions on the war in Ukraine were “converging”. But the former German ambassador to the US added that the vice-president “didn’t take the next logical step, which would have been to say we now need to really turn the screws on Russia”.

Experts say Russia, meanwhile, is banking on the US president losing patience with the peace process. “Putin’s playing a long game and thinks he has time on his side,” said McFaul. “He’s calculating that Trump will lose interest and the Americans will cut off military assistance, and that will make the Ukrainian army weaker,” the former US ambassador to Russia said.

Others believe that the danger of the US president abandoning Ukraine has diminished in recent weeks.

Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former senior director for Russia on the National Security Council staff, said Trump would struggle to achieve one of his main goals — a reset of relations with Russia — without first resolving the problem of Ukraine.

“There’s too much at stake,” he said. “Yes, he could still walk away from Ukraine — but if he does that it would look too much like failure.”

More at the link.

To properly monitor or peacekeep, the coalition of willing forces must be on the frontline. If they are positioned “west of the Dnipro River,” then to me, as a citizen of a city in the far east,it sounds like the coalition is prepared to watch us burn—just to avoid any confrontation with Russia 1/3

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 12:52 PM

But what are you even going to do here if your goal is to… hide? This reminds me of the OSCE monitoring mission in Donbas during the Minsk process. That was a “Carpathian resorts mission” or “drinking the nights away in Kharkiv clubs mission”. But if someone died in Donbas
2/3

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 12:52 PM

—which happened every day—oh well! Why did he stand where Russians were dropping grenades from their drones? Idiot. That was their “monitoring.” We do not need more of it.
3/3

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 12:52 PM

Estonia:

Scandal at sea.

Russia sent a Su-35 fighter jet to stop Estonia’s navy seizing a tanker, breaking sanctions as part of Russia’s shadow-fleet.

Estonia demanded the crew head to port, then they tried to board the vessel, before the attack plane arrived and they backed off.

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— Tim White (@twmcltd.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 1:22 PM

Given that the Russians put a Su-35 on station to target the Estonian Navy ship, discretion was the better part of valor. Remember, Russia is looking for an excuse to actually make their NATO on orders of the US started this war against Russia rhetoric real. The lesson to be learned here is that going forward from today, NATO/NATO member states need to have their own aviation assets on station flying CAP in overwatch of their ships when doing interdiction.

France:

France will transfer to Ukraine all wheeled CAESAR self-propelled howitzers produced in 2025, President Macron announced.

Around 12 units are manufactured each month, so the total could reach up to 144 — several times more than have been delivered throughout all the years of the full-scale war.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 8:01 AM

Back to Ukraine.

Russia still seeks to erase Ukraine.

Ukraine still fights to exist.

Whatever spectacle unfolds tomorrow in Istanbul, it will amount to nothing—there is no middle ground. It’s a performance for Trump to observe, assessing Ukraine’s readiness for peace, while Russia continues to kill us.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 2:47 PM

A reminder that despite efforts by both the Kremlin and the White House to undermine his position, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is extremely popular in Ukraine. A large majority are also against holding elections (which would be illegal in wartime anyway).

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 6:47 AM

Ukrainian Magura V7 naval drone with two AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 2:43 PM

/2. More photos of Magura V7

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 3:33 PM

The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine has officially shown the operation of the S-200 surface-to-air missile system for the first time.

The video shows the launch of a 5V28 missile from a standard Soviet 5P72V launcher, which was previously believed to be decommissioned.
t.me/c/1606301574…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 2:26 PM

Sumy:

Russian forces struck an industrial facility in Sumy with a missile. Tragically, one person was killed, and seven others were injured; three of them are in critical condition, reported the Regional Military Administration.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 9:06 AM

The number injured in Sumy climbs to 9

bsky.app/profile/twmc…

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— Tim White (@twmcltd.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 10:07 AM

Kharkiv:

Russian drones are approaching Kharkiv right now ‼️

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 1:18 PM

In Kharkiv, the names of the occupying forces who attacked the residents of Czechoslovakia during the ‘Prague Spring’ are being removed from a memorial plaque.

Finally!

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 9:11 AM

Toretsk:

Toretsk, before and after Russia liberated it from life itself.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 12:55 PM

Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast:

Russia struck Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region with a glide bomb today, killing a 63 years-old man in his home.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 9:02 AM

The Kursk cross border offensive:

Air strikes on Russian bridges in the Kursk region. t.me/soniah_hub/1…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 8:56 AM

On the Kursk–Sumy direction, Russians got hit hard. Ukraine’s Defense Forces delivered a precise strike on an enemy artillery position.

As a result, the ammo was destroyed, three occupiers were wounded and Russian D-20 howitzer also left the chat for a while.
t.me/c/1377735387…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 2:36 PM

Khakhovka, Kherson Oblast:

Aftermath of a drone strike on Russian Tor air defence system. Judging by the debris, it was a heavy Ukrainian quadcopter that was also knocked down by the blast wave from the detonating Tor. Kakhovka, Kherson region. 11.05.2025 t.me/dosye_shpion…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 8:33 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

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There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

😻🇺🇦 Odesa cat decided that he is now a tourist and climbed into a cable car cabin! Paws on the window, whiskers in the works, his purring: “Well, seagulls, envious, eh?” This stripy little rascal has clearly decided that he is the captain of this sky voyage!

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 10:39 AM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,175: Putin Isn’t Going to Turkey Because He’s a Big (Little) ChickenPost + Comments (9)

War for Ukraine Day 1,174: More Drone Swarms in the Small Hours of the Night

by Adam L Silverman|  May 13, 20259:16 pm| 13 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A quick housekeeping note: It was a long and, frankly, quite brutally ugly day today. I already know I have at least one more of those tomorrow. So I’m just going to run through the basics tonight.

Air raid alerts are up for all of eastern, northern, southern, and central Ukraine except for Odesa, Kirovohrad, and the western  oblasts at 8:05 PM EDT/3:05 PM local time in Ukraine. These alerts are for drone swarms.

Earlier today the air raid alerts were for ballistic missiles:

Over half Ukraine on alert due to Russian ballistic missile launch threat. Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities in recent weeks have killed dozens & injured hundreds of civilians.

Russia is ignoring the Ukraine coalition’s ceasefire demands. What will the consequences be?

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 4:50 AM

The Russians also once again struck civilian targets in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast:

Russia continues its ruthless attacks on civilians. Chaotic airstrikes on a village in Kharkiv’s Kupiansk district killed two people and injured seven more there and in nearby villages. The destruction is devastating.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 4:10 PM

Russia struck Kupyansk district of the Kharkiv region, killing two people, destroying their home, and injuring four others.

Russia kills people in the Kharkiv region every single day.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 1:05 PM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcripts after the jump.

show full post on front page

Ukraine Is Absolutely Ready for a Truly Effective Format of Talks – Address by the President

13 May 2025 – 20:03

Dear Ukrainians!

Emergency response operations are currently underway in Kharkiv after a Russian drone strike. Preliminary reports indicate that no one was harmed. This was another Russian strike on an energy facility – a purely civilian one. Russia is being Russia. While everybody awaits their response to a ceasefire and direct negotiations, they respond with new strikes and attacks. The only one dragging out the war, the only one responsible for both the start and the continuation of the war, is Russia. The entire world understands this clearly. Pressure is essential – pressure to make Moscow stop thinking that the world can still wait. An end to the war is needed – a dignified and just one. Russia talks a lot about direct negotiations, but when it comes down to it, they hide. Decisions must be made. And they must be made with the one who is truly in control of what happens next. Right now, our team is actively preparing for a visit to Türkiye. Today, we have presented Ukraine’s position to all our partners in detail. I want to thank them for their support. Every call for a long-lasting and unconditional ceasefire matters. Calls for direct negotiations at the highest level are equally important. Putin is the one who determines everything in Russia, so he is the one who has to resolve the war. This is his war. Therefore, the negotiations should be with him.

Today, I want to highlight the statement made by the leaders of the Nordic and Baltic countries – I want to thank them for their support, including for supporting negotiations. Overall, European leaders are making strong statements and taking decisive steps. I want to thank them for this once again. We also know, in particular, China’s stance regarding support for a ceasefire and negotiations. The United States is clearly and unambiguously saying that leaders must meet. Ukraine is absolutely ready for a truly effective format of talks.

Today, I received a report from the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine about his contacts with our partners and our corresponding plans. The Head of the Office of the President has been in negotiations practically all day. The Minister of Defense also delivered a report today – at his level, there is corresponding important communication as well. We are working to ensure Ukraine’s positions are strong and that diplomacy yields results.

The internal situation in Ukraine is equally important – everything needed for the resilience of our state and the well-being of our people. Today, there was a report from the Head of the State Tax Service, Mr. Kravchenko, on efforts to counter shadow schemes and ensure Ukraine’s financial stability. This is very important for our entire state. There have been good results. Despite the war and any diplomatic turbulence, all social payments in Ukraine are ensured. And this will continue.

I want to thank everyone who stands with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

First Lady Zelenska had a meeting today with Andreas Schliecher, who is the Director for Education and Skills at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and Head of the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA).

President Zelenskyy also held a press conference about the potential for negotiations in Turkey at the end of the week:

Georgia:

Day 167. The moments of tonight’s gathering.

By now, everyone knows we won’t stop, and each protester represents thousands that would rush immediately in case of a minor incident.

This well end in new, free & fair Parliamentary elections. #GeorgiaProtests

📷 Khatuna Tsiklauri

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 3:24 PM

FIRST moments*

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 3:29 PM

Day 167 of #GeorgiaProtests

“Glory to heroes! Victory to Georgia! Victory to Ukraine! Down with Russia’s rotten Empire!”

📷 Giorgi Burjanadze

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 3:32 PM

1/ With its new bill, Georgian Dream is making it easier for the Constitutional Court to ban opposition parties.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 2:26 PM

2/ The Constitutional Court will have a nine-month deadline to review cases on party bans, however, the court will be able to dissolve a party within 14 days before an election if it deems its membership, goals, and activities identical to those of an already banned party.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 2:26 PM

3/ This change would allow Georgian Dream to follow through on its pre-election promise to ban all major pro-European opposition parties, which it refers to as “satellites of the UNM.”

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 2:26 PM

4/ Earlier, party leader Mamuka Mdinaradze said the final report from the investigative commission in Parliament would provide a strong basis for declaring these parties unconstitutional.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 2:26 PM

This morning, regime PM Kobakhidze published an open letter of utter desperation to President Trump and VP Vance.

It’s full of lies, but I’ll distinguish two points:

1. He says that by 🇬🇪 participation in Iraq and Afghanistan, 🇬🇪 saved the US more money than the US has contributed to Georgia 1/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

(and then lists various important exceptions that in total still amount to a greater US assistance). The Georgian Dream despised Georgia’s participation in Iraq and Afghanistan, considered it a futile sacrifice and even campaigned to withdraw the country from the missions. 2/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

It’s the previous government and, first and foremost, the people of Georgia who contributed, and the US keeps its allyship with the people of Georgia.

2. Journalists asked illegitimate GD MPs what they thought of the letter, and one of them, 3/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

Nikoloz Samkharadze, stated that external legitimacy doesn’t matter; it’s internal public legitimacy that matters, including that from journalists (GD representatives are so desperate for any semblance of legitimacy that they like to portray that 4/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

journalists asking them questions within the walls of the Parliaments means the journalists admit their legitimacy).

Things might not be unfolding as fast as people hoped, but it’s still going in the right direction. 5/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

If we keep the pressure of protests and non-engagement at home, and the subsequently derived international pressure, the Georgian Dream will have ever-deepening trouble. 6/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

This means that we as the opposition should not give them a helping hand in their time of distress – and we should deprive them of legitimacy by not taking part in the local elections in October. 7/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

Otherwise, they’ll check the internal legitimacy box, the opposition will not be able to call a foul post factum, or gain any public sympathy whatsoever, and the regime will try to start the process of internal and external normalization. 8/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

Keep it up. And Georgians, keep pressure in terms of non-participation in the local elections.

I’ll share the full text of that letter once available in English. 9/9.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

‪Oh, here it is. civil.ge/archives/680…

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:51 AM

“TV Pirveli” journalist Mariam Makasarashvili sustained a concussion after she and cameraman Nukri Kapiashvili were attacked by the father of Giorgi Shinjikashvili, Kvemo Kartli’s First Deputy Governor, while asking about his resignation.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 3:22 AM

Germany:

Thanks to Scholz, Taurus has become a symbol of Germany’s vulnerability to nuclear coercion. If Merz fails to deliver the weapon system after the ultimatum expires, he too forfeits his credibility. I’d be cautiously optimistic that his advisors and he himself are aware of that.

1/2

— Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 1:08 PM

That said, it’s important to remember that Scholz’s delaying tactics mean the Taurus still needs to be integrated and Ukrainian personnel trained.

Three months is an optimistic estimate; four to six is more realistic. So, in any case, Taurus will not be operational in Ukraine anytime soon.

2/2

— Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 1:08 PM

Also, there is a chance that Taurus won’t be delivered because a US veto.

ITAR restricitons apply to Taurus deliveries, unfortunately, due to the integrated US-origin turbofan engine and GPS seeker.

— Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 1:12 PM

German Taurus were backfitted with the American GPS receivers upon midlife upgrade and brought to the South Korean standard. Those are the 300 that received the MLU. The other 300 are currently not equipped with an American GPS receiver (until their upgrade is completed).

— Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:18 AM

But I could have been clearer on this.

This being said, the engine has always been American in origin, so ITAR restrictions would have applied regardless of whether Germany wanted to deliver midlife upgraded or original versions.

— Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:19 AM

I was not concerned under Biden regarding an American veto, given that he has stated that he has no issue with allies delivering long-range strike weapons.

I’m not so sure under Trump. Depends on his mood and how long is last phone call with Putin is in the past.

— Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:21 AM

The US:

“It could be 10-15 years — that’s the sort of timeline we talk about.”

Why Trump’s Ukraine resources deal will take a decade to produce results www.ft.com/content/cccc… via @financialtimes.com

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— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) May 13, 2025 at 1:27 AM

From The Financial Times:

The resources deal that Donald Trump has struck with Ukraine will not yield mining production for at least a decade and require huge private sector investment to get projects off the ground.

That is how companies and industry veterans view the agreement, ratified by Kyiv’s parliament on Thursday, which aims to lift investment in the Ukrainian mining and energy sectors and create a joint “reconstruction investment fund” from the proceeds of future projects.

“It could be 10-15 years — that’s the sort of timeline we talk about,” said Eric Rasmussen, former head of natural resources at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Peter Bryant, chair of mining advisory group Clareo, said the accord “does little to de-risk the supply chain in the next 10 years, as it will take at least that long to discover and develop mines” in the eastern European country.

Ukraine’s commercial natural resources include iron ore, coal, lithium, graphite and titanium-bearing ores. It is also Europe’s third-largest gas producer. Future oil and gas developments will be included in the resources deal, and could be quicker to develop than mining projects, observers said.

Yet big obstacles, including Russia’s continuing war on Ukraine, patchy geological data, severely damaged infrastructure and the potential for corruption — on top of the ordinary challenges to set up any new resources project — mean it could be 2040 before mines developed under the deal are producing minerals.

Yulia Svyrydenko, a Ukrainian minister and signatory to the deal, told reporters on Thursday that the fund itself would be operational “within a few weeks”.

However, several steps remain before there can be tangible results, with years of geological exploration required before a feasibility study is produced and a project begins raising money for development.

The US-Ukraine reconstruction investment fund only covers new projects, so existing sites such as the iron ore mines operated by the FTSE 250 Ukrainian miner Ferrexpo and the iron ore prospect developed by Toronto-listed Black Iron would not be covered.

Even Ukrainian officials acknowledge there would be a long wait before the fund starts distributing profits.

“We expect that for the first 10 years, fund profits and revenues will not be distributed, but instead reinvested into Ukraine — into new projects or reconstruction,” Svyrydenko said on X on the day that the deal was signed.

One further obstacle is access to the Soviet-era geological survey data that maps Ukraine’s mineral wealth, much of which is classified due to the war. Experts also point out that, given Ukraine’s long history of mining, the best deposits may have already been exploited.

“This romantic idea that there’s lakes of lithium to be tapped is just not the case,” said a mining executive operating in the country, adding that the US-Ukraine deal was “not going to move any needles” in the next decade.

Hugo Corden-Lloyd, senior associate at the Risk Advisory Group, was another to note the “myriad” risk for companies. These ranged from “your usual corruption and bribery issues to physical security. Will mining companies have to cover the cost of clearing land of any unexploded ordnance?”

For Jim North, former chief executive of Ferrexpo, “the big question is: ‘What does a ceasefire look like?’”

Russian retention of the Ukrainian land it occupies, which includes significant coal mines and some lithium resources, would reduce Ukraine’s opportunities.

More at the link.

As I’ve written before there is no deal here. Yes, there’s documents with signatures, but on the US side this isn’t being submitted to the Senate to ratify, which means it isn’t binding on the US the way a ratified treaty would be. It’s just like the JCPOA was, which didn’t survive the change in administration from Obama to Trump. When you add in all the complications detailed in the reporting, as well as the fact that there’s an existing agreement between Ukraine and the EU member states for access to these resources, and there’s no there there. This is vaporware that the Ukrainians agreed to so the President could claim he made a deal to the benefit of the US. There’s more here than whatever that mess with the Brits that was announced last week is, but not by much.

According to Clash Report, Trump will not travel to Istanbul for the negotiations.

Instead, the U.S. President will send his special representatives, Witkoff and Kellogg.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 8:24 AM

Who could’ve possibly predicted?

Back to Ukraine.

Delighted to see our portfolio of investigations on Russia’s war in Ukraine shortlisted for @gijn.org Sigma Awards. The revelations contribute to mounting evidence of war crimes and show what can be achieved when forensic reporting is combined with visual storytelling.

gijn.org/stories/sigm…

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— Sam Joiner (@samjoiner.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:09 AM

In a groundbreaking investigation, we used facial recognition software to identify Ukrainian children given false Russian identities and listed for adoption.

@alisonkilling.bsky.social @christopherjm.ft.com @peter.andringa.me @digitalcampbell.ft.com @samlearner.bsky.social
on.ft.com/433Mpgw

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— Sam Joiner (@samjoiner.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:09 AM

Inside Mariupol: Russia’s new Potemkin village exposed appalling conditions endured by locals under occupation — and the oligarchs profiting from the sham rebuild.

@alisonkilling.bsky.social Polina Ivanova @peter.andringa.me @digitalcampbell.ft.com @carolinenevitt.bsky.social

ig.ft.com/mariupol/

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— Sam Joiner (@samjoiner.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:09 AM

Our harrowing report on life in Kherson exposed an unprecedented Russian military strategy: the systematic use of drones to terrorise and depopulate a city.

@christopherjm.ft.com @inari-ta.bsky.social

on.ft.com/3SF3h8x

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— Sam Joiner (@samjoiner.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:09 AM

Ukraine wants peace more than anyone. We accepted an unconditional ceasefire two months ago and remain ready for direct talks at the highest level in Istanbul.

Russia does not want peace. Every day this war continues solely because they keep attacking,

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 7:25 AM

searching for excuses to reject the ceasefire, and now refusing to attend the very peace talks they proposed.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 7:25 AM

Putin’s refusal to join Istanbul talks would be ‘last signal’ Russia doesn’t want peace, Zelensky’s chief of staff says #Ukraine

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— AmplifyUkraine 🔱🇺🇦 (@amplifyukraine.eu) May 13, 2025 at 9:25 AM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s potential refusal to attend peace talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Istanbul would be the “last signal” that Russia is not willing to end the war in Ukraine, Presidential Office chief Andriy Yermak said on May 13.

Zelensky invited Putin to meet in Turkey on May 15 to launch the first direct negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow since 2022, though the Kremlin has not revealed whether the Russian leader would attend.

“Up until now, we have not received an answer or confirmation that President Putin will be in Turkey. But President Zelensky of Ukraine is ready and will go,” Yermak said in a keynote discussion at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit, in comments reported by Politico.

Yermak said Ukraine is “ready to discuss anything,” but “only if a ceasefire is achieved.”

“We’re ready to discuss any options that are on the table. There are many interesting and very strong options. The strongest guarantee is Ukraine’s prepared and trained military force, and our partners exactly understand what we need to prevent such a terrible war from happening again,” he said.

Yermak added that if Putin does not come to Turkey, it will be “the last signal” that Russia “does not want to end the war and is not ready for any negotiations.”

Ukraine and its European allies have urged an unconditional ceasefire starting on May 12 as the first step toward peace. Russia has ignored this proposal, continuing its attacks on Ukraine.

Asked by the Kyiv Independent whether Zelensky plans to make the trip even if Russia does not support the truce or if Putin declines to attend, a source close to the president said, “We are ready for all options. But of course, we are separately waiting for a response on the ceasefire.”

The last face-to-face meeting between Putin and Zelensky took place in 2019 in Paris during a Normandy Format summit. Since then, there have been no direct in-person meetings between the two leaders.

Ukraine and Russia have not held direct peace talks since the unsuccessful negotiations in Istanbul in 2022.

Russian Buk-M3 air defense units (the one Russia used to shoot down MH17 over eastern Ukraine in July 2014) tend to explode in a very satisfying manner. Here’s one being destroyed by a US Switchblade 600 loitering munition. It is planned to localize Switchblade production in Ukraine.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:14 AM

Very interesting exclusive footage shared by 14th UAS with @Teoyaomiquu.bsky.social shows a mass launch of Ukrainian long-range ‘Chaklun’ kamikaze drones from dedicated launchers targeting Russian positions.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 12:33 PM

UA 2S22 vs 2 RU D-30.

May. 2025. We still use artillery vs artillery. And I fucking love it.

Community, we again need your help with Avenger antennas for drones. The price is 4 000$. Support, please🔽

WFP: secure.wayforpay.com/donate/Krieg…

PP: [email protected]

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— kriegsforscher.bsky.social (@kriegsforscher.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 11:25 AM

I am definitely not the best film editor but we have our personal record:

– 2 D-30 with the help of artillery are taken out;
– 1 D-30 with the help of FPV;
– 1 2A36 with the help of FPV.

— kriegsforscher.bsky.social (@kriegsforscher.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 11:31 AM

Not really sure where Kriegsforscher and his unit are fighting right now.

An airstrike by a MiG-29 on Russian frontline positions. Two incoming bombs aren’t clearly visible, but they appear to be AASM Hammers. t.me/soniah_hub/1…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 8:51 AM

Kharkiv:

Explosion in Kharkiv ‼️ russian drone struck the downtown.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:11 AM

Explosion in Kharkiv ‼️ russian drones again. It’s the second attack today.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 10:19 AM

Russian occupied Crimea and southwestern Russia:

First Ukrainian drone attack since “Putin’s Parade Paranoia” “ceasefire” on May 8: Ukrainian drones heading for Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimea and SW Russia. Map from t.me/dronbomber

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:26 PM

The Pokrovsk direction:

Construction of Ukrainian anti-infantry defense lines made of barbed wire on the Pokrovsky Front. More and more such anti infantry fortifications are appearing.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 11:05 AM

The Kursk cross border offensive:

Air strike on Russian river crossing somewhere in the Kursk region filmed by Russians.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 4:38 AM

Destruction of the Russian Uragan-1 MLRS on the BAZ chassis Kursk region. First, the strike was carried out by a FPV drone, then HIMARS arrived.

This is only the second confirmation of the loss of the Russian Uragan-1 on the BAZ chassis. (51.4554722, 34.5064444) t.me/ukr_sof/1622

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 3:52 AM

The Lyman front:

Ukrainian soldiers of the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the AFU “Steel Lions,” captured a citizen of Uzbekistan on the Lyman front.

Umit (his name) joined an assault, got hit, got lost, and ended up at the positions of the Ukrainian brigade.
t.me/c/1377735387…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 11:43 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

@patron__dsns

😌🌼🌻🍃 #песпатрон

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Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,174: More Drone Swarms in the Small Hours of the NightPost + Comments (13)

War for Ukraine Day 1,173: Well that Didn’t Take Long

by Adam L Silverman|  May 12, 20259:46 pm| 17 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Well that didn’t take long:

🔴 Kremlin rejects Zelenskyy’s offer for peace talks with Putin in Istanbul.

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— UNITED24 Media (@united24media.com) May 12, 2025 at 9:38 AM

UNITED24 Media has the details:

The Kremlin has rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s proposal to hold direct talks with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Istanbul on May 15, with top Russian officials denouncing the idea as political theater and insisting Moscow will not engage under any form of pressure, Konstantin Kosachev, deputy speaker of the Federation Council, dismissed Zelenskyy’s proposal, calling it “comedy and spectacle,” Russian state media TASS reported on May 12.

Moscow issued its response shortly after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced in a video address that he would travel to Türkiye on Thursday and stated that he expected Russian leader Vladimir Putin to join him there for direct talks.

“I will be in Türkiye this Thursday, May 15, and I expect Putin to come to Türkiye as well — in person. I hope that this time, Putin won’t look for excuses for why he ‘can’t’ come,” Zelenskyy said.

“High-level meetings, especially under such difficult circumstances, are absolutely not arranged this way,” Kosachev said, pointing to the long diplomatic groundwork that preceded previous potential summits between Putin and US President Donald Trump.

Kosachev accused Zelenskyy of attempting to “shift blame” onto Russia and questioned the sincerity of the Ukrainian leader’s intentions. “Zelenskyy doesn’t need a meeting with the Russian president — not at all. In fact, he should be afraid of such a meeting,” he added.

Vladimir Dzhabarov, deputy chair of the Federation Council’s foreign affairs committee, rejected the notion entirely, saying Zelenskyy had not been invited to Istanbul in the first place.

“Who invited him to Istanbul? Does he really think our president would meet personally with someone who has blood on his hands, who betrayed the memory of the great heroism of both Ukrainians and the entire Soviet people — the heroism of his own grandfather? Who is he, that we should sit down with him at the negotiating table?” Dzhabarov said.

He characterized Zelenskyy’s statement as a ploy to later claim he was ready for talks, adding, “Negotiations will take place, but through designated representatives, as has happened before.”

Another Federation Council official, Andrey Klimov, said the possibility of a meeting wasn’t entirely off the table, but unlikely.

“There is a chance [it could happen], but it’s not 100 percent, because everything could run into Kyiv’s obstinacy. Fine, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin comes. Zelenskyy comes. And then what? How are the talks supposed to proceed? Will others be involved? Trump will be nearby at the time — will he want to participate? There are still many, many questions,” Klimov said.

Earlier, Zelenskyy called Russia’s proposal for direct peace talks a “good sign,” but stressed that negotiations can only proceed if Moscow confirms a full and lasting ceasefire starting May 12.

Least surprising development ever.

A ceasefire is only possible if Russia is given guarantees that Ukraine will not defend itself when we attack it again.

— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 4:48 AM

Pretty much.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Unfortunately, the World Still Has Not Received a Clear Response from Russia to the Numerous Proposals for a Ceasefire; Russian Shelling and Assaults Continue – Address by the President

12 May 2025 – 21:00

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

I’ve just spoken with President Erdoğan of Türkiye. It was a meaningful conversation. I’m grateful to the President for the support. I reaffirmed to him my readiness for direct and substantive negotiations with Putin. Ukraine has always supported diplomacy. I’m ready to come to Türkiye. Unfortunately, the world still has not received a clear response from Russia to the numerous proposals for a ceasefire. Russian shelling and assaults continue. Moscow has remained silent all day regarding the proposal for a direct meeting. A very strange silence. One way or another, Russia will have to end this war – and the sooner, the better. There is no sense in continuing the killing. President Erdoğan has expressed full readiness to host the meeting. It is important that President Trump fully supports the meeting, and we would like him to find an opportunity to come to Türkiye.

There was also a great deal of work today with our partners – with the Americans, with the Europeans – diplomatic work.

I also had a very good conversation with the Pope today — I started the day with it. Pope Leo XIV spoke warm and very important words about Ukraine and our people – about a just and durable peace for our country, and the return of our people – the unconditional return of prisoners and children who were abducted by Russia. I thanked him for his support. We discussed possible meetings, and I invited the Pope to visit Ukraine. Today, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha reported to me on his conversations with colleagues from the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Germany, Poland, France, the European Union, and the United States. I’m grateful to all of them for their constructive approach and their readiness to take the necessary steps to make peace a reality. From the very beginning, Ukraine has not wanted this war – not for a single second. Together with our partners, we are working to ensure security, preparing a solid foundation for peace, and taking joint action to make diplomacy truly work.

I held a Staff meeting today. The key topics were Ukraine’s missile program and our drones – all types of drones we need. There were also reports on drone usage – precision and effectiveness of strikes on the front lines. I want to thank all our manufacturers working to ensure that Ukraine maintains its technological edge. We are also working to protect our infrastructure and ensure long-term defense capabilities – these are systemic decisions, and responsibility for their implementation is personal.

And one more thing.

I want to thank all our warriors – each and every one who is now at the front, on combat posts and missions. Today, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi delivered reports – Donetsk and Kursk directions are where the fiercest fighting is ongoing. I want to thank our men of the 33rd, 225th, and 425th Assault Regiments. In the Kramatorsk direction – warriors of the 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade – well done! In the Pokrovsk direction – the 14th Operational Brigade of the National Guard and the 117th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – thank you! Fighting alongside all our Forces at the front are also units of the National Police of Ukraine – the “Liut” and “Khyzhak” assault brigades, KORD units, and rifle battalions – thank you all! Ukraine has defended its independence. Ukraine defends its right to life every single day. And we will definitely guarantee Ukraine’s security – exactly as needed.

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Day 166 of uninterrupted #GeorgiaProtests. Day 196 overall.

Lately, I have to leave the protest before our beloved energetic march arrives :( hope to fix this bug soon.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 2:22 PM

Women again block an important road with the demand of the illegitimate government resignation and the release of political prisoners. #GeorgiaProtests
📷 Natia Gabrava

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 11:48 AM

This is very cool.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 1:46 PM

1/ Head of TV Pirveli’s news division, Nodar Meladze, says that the father of retired deputy governor Giorgi Shinjikashvili attacked their crew:

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 8:22 AM

2/ “The father of former deputy governor Giorgi Shinjikashvili physically assaulted our female journalist, Mariam Makasarashvili. He took her mobile phone and seized TV Pirveli’s camera. Police have not yet arrived at the scene,” he wrote.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 8:22 AM

3/ Later, the journalist herself confirmed that Shinjikashvili’s father hit her.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 8:22 AM

4/ The Deputy State Representative in Kvemo Kartli, has stepped down from his position. He announced the resignation on Facebook, describing it as a personal decision.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 8:22 AM

5/ Shinjikashvili did not provide any explanation for his resignation. However, earlier media reports claimed that he may have had a dispute with Giorgi Kharazishvili—known as Khareba —the head of the MIA’s Special Tasks Department.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 8:22 AM

Reportedly, she has a concussion.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 9:08 AM

According to TV Pirveli investigation, the Georgian Dream’s former General Prosecutor and Ivanishvili’s close associate Otar Partskhaladze (right) attended Putin’s May 9 celebration in Moscow. He’s sanctioned by the US for being a Russian asset.

In the meantime, 1/

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 11:49 AM

Russians try to gather signatures in Georgia to restore Russia-Georgia diplomatic relations, as seen in the post below. 2/2.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 11:49 AM

The Vatican:

New pope breaks with Francis to support Kyiv and ceasefire push

https://www.ft.com/content/c933d769-9791-43e4-abae-9f9b495ccde1

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— Financial Times (@financialtimes.com) May 12, 2025 at 7:47 AM

From The Financial Times:

Pope Leo XIV has called Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss Ukrainian children abducted by Russia and a western backed 30-day ceasefire, in a shift from the previous pontiff who had struck a more neutral stance on Moscow’s war.

Ukraine’s president said on Monday that his first conversation with the new pope, who was elected last week, was “very warm and truly substantive” and thanked him for his support.

“We deeply value his words about the need to achieve a just and lasting peace for our country and the release of prisoners,” he said.

The Vatican confirmed the two men had spoken on the phone but declined to provide any further details.

Pope Leo on Sunday said: “I carry in my heart the sufferings of the beloved Ukrainian people,” urging for “an authentic, just and lasting peace as soon as possible”.

“May all the prisoners be freed and may the children return to their families,” he added.

His explicit support for Ukraine in its years-long war against Russia’s invasion was met with appreciation from Ukrainians and especially the country’s Catholics, who viewed the remarks more positively than the late Pope Francis.

After Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Francis avoided directly accusing Moscow of aggression, suggesting that Nato had provoked Russia and often treating the warring parties as suffering equally. Last year the late pope caused an outcry when he suggested that Ukraine should have the courage to surrender to bring a swift end to the bloodshed.

“When you see that you are defeated, that things are not going well, you need to have the courage to negotiate,” Francis told an interviewer for a Swiss television last year, suggesting that Kyiv should “have the courage to wave the white flag”.

By contrast Leo in 2022 — who was a bishop in Peru at the time — condemned Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine as “imperialist”, saying that “Russia wants to conquer a territory for reasons of power” and that it committed crimes against humanity in the conflict.

“We really feel that Pope Leo XIV will be the pope of peace for the long-suffering, war-torn Ukraine,” said the head of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, Sviatoslav Shevchuk.

Ukrainians had criticised Francis for calling Ukrainians and Russians “brothers” — a term used by Russian President Vladimir Putin to justify his invasion. The late Pope Francis had also sent cardinal Matteo Zuppi, the archbishop of Bologna, on two humanitarian missions to Moscow to try to negotiate the return of abducted Ukrainian children.

The Vatican said that “a certain number” of children were returned as a result of the church’s mediation effort. But it was unclear how many came back.

Zelenskyy on Monday said a key point of his discussion with Pope Leo focused on the nearly 20,000 Ukrainian children that his office said had been forcibly taken by Russia. A Financial Times investigation last year found Ukrainian children who were abducted and moved to Russia in the early months of the Kremlin’s 2022 full-scale invasion had been put up for adoption by authorities, in one case under a false Russian identity.

More at the link.

Poland:

Poland has proven the involvement of Russian intelligence services in the sabotage by arson of the “Marywilska 44” shopping center in Warsaw. Therefore, the Russian Consulate General in Kraków is being closed.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 4:20 AM

Polish hauliers have launched a protest, restricting truck traffic at the “Yahodyn–Dorohusk” border crossing, says Ukraine’s Border Guard Service.

Humanitarian aid vehicles pass freely, while other freight trucks are allowed through at a rate of one per hour in each direction.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 9:54 AM

Ugh, this stupidity again.

The US:

“I was thinking about flying over”- Trump on proposed Zelenskyy and Putin meeting in Istanbul.

I don’t even know how to feel about it

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 11:17 AM

That’s not happening.

Back to Ukraine.

Cunning from Zelensky: If Putin fails to turn up in Istanbul on Thursday, Trump is going to have to react – and Putin is unlikely to turn up in Istanbul on Thursday…

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 12:40 PM

A video of Macron, Merz and Starmer on a train to Kyiv has gone viral because users like Alex Jones and at least two senior Russian officials claim the three leaders were caught on camera with a bag of cocaine and a spoon.

In reality, the bag is a tissue and the spoon is a cocktail pick.

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— Shayan Sardarizadeh (@shayan86.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 6:03 PM

The President of Ukraine has signed the law ratifying the Economic Partnership Agreement with the United States.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 11:44 AM

Proof Russians aren’t serious about peace: They wrote “There won’t be a ceasefire!” on the wing of one of their drones – but misspelled “ceasefire” in Russian – they used the nominative case ending “е” instead of the genitive case ending “я” as demanded by the negative.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 4:46 PM

The downing of a Shahed drone by Ukrainian border guards.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 8:50 AM

The three interceptions of the Russian Lancet loitering munitions during a single day. By the 1039th Separate Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 11:57 AM

The aftermath of an RPG hit on an M113. The Ukrainian crew was extremely lucky.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 12:23 PM

The HUR has revealed a new Russian cruise missile called “Banderol,” which is being used to terrorize southern Ukraine.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 8:28 AM

Sumy:

A Russian drone attacked a vehicle belonging to energy infrastructure workers in the Sumy region. Reports from the Regional Military Administration indicate that one person has died.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 8:09 AM

Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts:

The first launch tonight of Russian Shahed attack drones has been detected – they are heading for Odesa.

By the time they reach the Ukrainian port city, Russia will be in breach of the 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇵🇱 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 coalition ceasefire demand.

Will the Kremlin face consequences?

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 3:45 PM

Drones seem now to be heading for Mykolaiv – air alert just sounded in the oblast.

— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 4:11 PM

Drones now at Ochakiv, on Mykolaiv Oblast’s Black Sea coast.

— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 4:19 PM

The Kursk cross border offensive:

WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC CONTENT!! WARNING!! WARNING!!

An airstrike targeted a Russian bridge in the Kursk region during the evacuation of a logistics truck stranded on the structure. The footage was recovered from the phone of one of the Russian personnel.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 5:14 PM

ALL CLEAR!!!!

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC CONTENT!! WARNING!! WARNING!!

Ukrainian aviation continues to shatter Russian infantry to pieces — a MiG-29 wipes out two assault groups at once in the Zaporizhzhia region.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 1:41 PM

ALL CLEAR!!!!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today.

Here is some adjacent material.

🫡🇺🇦 With my best friend at the battle post!

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 7:58 AM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,173: Well that Didn’t Take LongPost + Comments (17)

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