• Menu
  • Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar

Before Header

  • About Us
  • Lexicon
  • Contact Us
  • Our Store
  • ↑
  • ↓

Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

Meanwhile over at truth Social, the former president is busy confessing to crimes.

Republicans got rid of McCarthy. Democrats chose not to save him.

Wake up. Grow up. Get in the fight.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the gop

The republican speaker is a slippery little devil.

The fundamental promise of conservatism all over the world is a return to an idealized past that never existed.

Spilling the end game before they can coat it in frankl luntz-approved dogwhistles.

There are consequences to being an arrogant, sullen prick.

Let me file that under fuck it.

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

Schmidt just says fuck it, opens a tea shop.

The willow is too close to the house.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

Everyone is in a bubble, but some bubbles model reality far better than others!

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

When the time comes to make an endorsement, the pain of NYT editors will be palpable as they reluctantly whisper “Biden.”

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

Biden: Oh no. We’ve upset Big Pharma again.

Russia bombs Ukraine’s maternity hospitals; Republicans in the House can’t sort out supporting Ukraine.

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Republicans would impeach Biden if he bit into a whole Kit Kat rather than breaking the sections apart.

Mobile Menu

  • Four Directions Montana
  • Donate with Venmo, Zelle & PayPal
  • Site Feedback
  • War in Ukraine
  • Submit Photos to On the Road
  • Politics
  • On The Road
  • Open Threads
  • Topics
  • COVID-19 Coronavirus
  • Authors
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Lexicon
  • Our Store
  • Politics
  • Open Threads
  • 2024 Elections
  • Garden Chats
  • On The Road
  • Targeted Fundraising!

War in Ukraine

You are here: Home / Archives for War in Ukraine

Russian Warship, Go Fuck Yourself

All Balloon Juice posts on Ukraine are below these resource lists.


War in Ukraine Lexicon


Newspapers

Kyiv Independent

Financial Times: War In Ukraine

The New Voice of Ukraine  (independent newspaper)

Ukraine’s public broadcaster  (in English)


Twitter

Michael McFaul

Terrell Jermaine Starr  (writes for Foreign Policy magazine)

Illia Ponomarenko  (reporter for Kyiv Independent)


Recommended by Adam

Best political-military (pol-mil), defense enterprise/logistics, and socio-cultural analysis of what’s going that Adam has seen so far!  Link

Very thorough, in depth analysis of an article mistakenly run by RIA Novosti on 26 February that was supposed to be a self congratulatory victory lap. The thread provides an interesting window into how the Russians are representing their actions.  Link

Excellent thread from the Center for Naval Analysis’s Director for Russian Studies on what he thinks is going on with the disjointedness and ineffectiveness of Russia’s campaign so far and where he thinks may go in the days to come.  Link


Ways to Help Ukraine



War for Ukraine Day 782: If the Opposite of Pro Is Con, Then the Opposite of Progress is a GOP Majority in Congress

by Adam L Silverman|  April 15, 20248:55 pm| 35 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Iran, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Speaker Johnson appears to have come up with a plan regarding the foreign military aid supplemental. It isn’t a good plan. It isn’t even a fully baked plan. But it is his plan.

JOHNSON, in the closed GOP meeting, says that Ukraine needs to stand on its own.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) April 15, 2024

Rep. Kevin Hern R-OK tells us the House GOP plan is separate votes on aid for Israel and Ukraine. Timing and details still TBD

— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) April 15, 2024

Rep. Joyce says Johnson has reached decision on his "vision" for way forward on Israel/ukraine aid… but must still sell it to conference.

— Billy House (@HouseInSession) April 15, 2024

Kevin Hern, who leads the Republican Study Committee, says Johnson is doing “the right thing” with the foreign aid package.

— Max Cohen (@maxpcohen) April 15, 2024

JEFFRIES doesn’t rule out Dems voting for the rule but says he’s still waiting to see Johnson’s final plan:

“We’re not going to come to any conclusion on process until we understand the substance.”

— Heather Caygle (@heatherscope) April 15, 2024

Good luck with that.

The Israelis have figured out this game and they are now reading the US for feckless filth:

יש דיווחים שהדרג המדיני החליט על תגובה בטווח זמן מהיר. תגובה שלא תוביל לדבריהם למלחמה אזורית. אבל תהיה "נחושה" ו"נחרצת". ושהם מבינים שאיראן תגיב. לתגובה. שבאה בתגובה להתקפה האיראנית. אולי כל זה לוחמה פסיכולוגית בדרך למהלך חכם מאוד (נגיד מהלך טקטי נבון בעזה דווקא). אין אלא לקוות.…

— נדב איל Nadav Eyal (@Nadav_Eyal) April 15, 2024

Here’s a machine translation of the Hebrew: (emphasis mine)

There are reports that the political echelon has decided on a response in a quick timeframe. A response that they say will not lead to a regional war. But be “determined” and “resolute”. And that they understand that Iran will respond. for a response. which came in response to the Iranian attack. Maybe all this is psychological warfare on the way to a very smart move (let’s say a smart tactical move in Gaza actually). One can only hope. If not, here are my comments:
1. How will the system know what a determined military response is that will not cause war? As I have been posting for a few days now, the AMN and the Mossad in general have told the political level that their main assessment is that Tehran will absorb the elimination of Mahdoi. They also assessed that Hamas is deterred. Israel works with an intelligence community that is very good at tactical information and bad at understanding enemy intentions. And shows arrogance. This is not Just instills confidence.
2. If the response will be symbolic, no appropriate equation has been created for Iran’s (unbearable) attack. If the reaction is too harsh, it may lead to war. In such a situation, isn’t it better to adopt a policy of “we will choose the place and the time”? Giora Eiland, Gideon Sa’ar, Ron Ben Yishai, Amos Harel and many others think so.
3. The whole framing of “to respond or not to respond” is a lie. Of course you need to respond. The question is whether now. and public. I keep hearing this threatening talk of “need to respond” and it’s all false. There was no immediate response that night, and Israel can respond two months from now. in high or low signature. We have the ball. And all the talk of the equation of sorts: what will determine if an equation has been created that discourages us is our future behavior in relation to a situation similar to the one in Damascus.
4. An Israeli response is, of course, turning our backs on the West’s requests, which we have only recently improved our alliance with. It’s not bad in itself; The West proves in Ukraine that it knows how to stand by your side, but not completely and to the end. On the other hand, without him completely – Israel (or Ukraine) has no chance of really winning.
That’s why you need wisdom. And yes – the response may be measured and smart and wise. One that does not give the Iranians a reason to continue (can you imagine, an Iranian asset outside of Iran?). But wouldn’t it be more worthwhile to leverage the current situation for another, diplomatic event? Maybe it will happen again. There was talk last night. By and large, the Israeli system is Pavlovian conditioned to disdain for diplomacy. This is a mistake in such a war.
5. The most disturbing. Israel is led by a rather uniform security and political leadership, most of which carries a terrible failure, ego burn and a legacy that will accompany it into history. October 7. Alternatively: former chiefs of staff.
The parties compete who is more aggressive and leak that one or the other offered to respond that night. Because they are not a “girl with cuckoos”, to quote one common phrase in these circles.
I wonder if anyone in the discussions – I write someone because women unfortunately do not participate in them – raised the so civil issue of a holiday. Passover. of an entire people who are in post-trauma. Because if we respond, and then wait for Iran, we have arrived at Seder Pesach.
And yes – this is a consideration in war. It is also necessary to manage the spirit of the public. Churchill dealt with such things extensively. as well as in diplomacy. When necessary, he knew how to beg the Americans. But Churchill, unlike the leaders here, was not addicted to a military concept in the style of a rookie general.
6. I have every hope that there is some brilliant move made here by the Israeli system, and that things are not as transparent and dangerous as they seem from the outside. The goal of preventing a regional war is at the core of Israel’s goals in the war. Iran must pay a price, and Israel must continue to harm the Iranians who target terrorism on its territory. I’m not convinced that a transparent, quick, and public response will serve all of these goals. Many good people think like me.

This is why the Israelis have decided to hit Iran back as soon as possible, which Eyal also talks about in his tweet. When you look weak, because you are weak, your clients will ignore you, your allies will not be assured, and your adversaries will not be deterred. As for Bibi and his war cabinet: ayn strategik, raq taktik. No strategy, only tactics. I’ll have a bit more on this at the bottom of tonight’s update.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

“Shaheds” in the Skies Above Ukraine Sound Identical to Those Over the Middle East – Address by the President

15 April 2024 – 20:41

Dear Ukrainians!

A few summaries of the day.

I held a meeting of the Staff. Two key topics now are the frontline and the energy sector.

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi delivered a report on the areas where the situation is the most severe.

Special attention was paid to the battles for Chasiv Yar, the battles in the Pokrovsk and Kupyansk directions.

I am grateful to every soldier and commander, to all our units who are defending our positions and doing everything to stabilize the situation.

Ukraine’s Defense Minister Umerov reported on the implementation of contracts for the supply of shells and drones, as well as electronic warfare.

Today, the Staff had a separate and detailed discussion about the use of electronic warfare and the protection of critical infrastructure. This applies, in particular, to the energy sector – what is protected and what was, unfortunately, not sufficiently protected. Appropriate conclusions will be drawn.

We analyzed the necessary actions to restore generation and key power facilities.

There was also a report on the state of protection of critical infrastructure in the areas near the frontline and in the border area.

There were two important intelligence reports – by Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service Ivashchenko and Chief of the Defence Intelligence Budanov – on Russian actions in the spring and summer. On what we must be prepared for – in all formats of possible hostile actions. Obviously, the madness in the Kremlin is still rampant, and the occupier will try to intensify assault and offensive actions. We will retaliate.

Today I also held meetings on our work with partners in the coming weeks. As before, the top priority will be air defense and weapons for our warriors on the frontline. Also, the consolidation of partners and the unity of the world will remain a priority.

The entire world witnessed allied action in the skies above Israel and neighboring countries. It demonstrated how truly effective unity in defending against terror can be when it is based on sufficient political will. Israel, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Jordan acted together and with maximum efficiency.

Together, they prevented terror from prevailing. And they are working together, and in coordination with others, to prevent further escalation.

Israel is not a NATO member, so no action, such as triggering Article 5, was required.

And no one was dragged into the war. They simply contributed to the protection of human life.

“Shaheds” in the skies above Ukraine sound identical to those over the Middle East. The impact of ballistic missiles, if they are not intercepted, is the same everywhere.

European skies could have received the same level of protection long ago if Ukraine had received similar full support from its partners in intercepting drones and missiles.

Terror must be defeated completely and everywhere, not more in some places and less in others.

I thank everyone in the world, every leader and state, who truly assists us with air defense and missiles necessary to protect our skies, as well as training our pilots on F-16s. All of this already works and will continue to work to save lives. However, we can now see how unity can work truly a hundred percent, and how almost a hundred percent of “Shaheds” and missiles can be intercepted. We will discuss it with our partners.

One more thing. Today the Norwegian Foreign Minister is on a visit to Ukraine. I had a meeting with him. I expressed gratitude for the truly significant and principled support for Ukraine. Our teams have finalized negotiations with Norway on a bilateral security agreement, and we are preparing to sign it with the Norwegian leader. We are also working on expanding defense cooperation, in particular to bolster our air defense. We also appreciate that Norway provides Ukraine with long-term financial support – all forms of resilience are important in times of war.

I am grateful to everyone in the world who stands with Ukraine! I am grateful to everyone who has the determination to truly defeat terror!

I thank everyone in Ukraine who fights and works for our victory.

Glory to Ukraine!

LTG Budanov, the Director of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR), sat for an interview with ICTV. It starts at the 4;37 mark of the reporting.

Here’s a machine translation into English of what was covered during the entire broadcast:

00:00:00 – The beginning
00:00:11 – Air alert in the regions – launch of the Shaheds
00:01:21 – How the intelligence of the Rubizh brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine works in the defense of Chasovyi Yar
00:04:37 – Budanov: In May-June, Russian troops plan to intensify fighting on the front line
00:05:16 – Shelling of Dnipropetrovs’k region on 15.04.24 – consequences
00:05:40 – Ukraine and Bulgaria hold Black Sea security conference
00:07:16 – Floods in the Russian Federation reached another region – Tomsk region
00:08:00 – A storm passed through Ukraine – consequences
00:08:37 – Ukraine to sign memorandum with Italy on restoration of historic center of Odesa
00:09:32 – In Odesa, a combat medic opened an Unbreakable coffee shop with the help of a microgrant
00:12:51 – Photo exhibition in memory of fallen soldiers opened in Vinnytsia

The cost, the price, and the reason:

Ukrainian veterans came to Minneapolis to receive new prostheses.

This is how they were met by the Ukrainian diaspora. pic.twitter.com/DMsC7LDi9E

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) April 15, 2024

Yana Stepanenko, a 12-year-old girl who lost her two legs in a Russian missile attack on Kramatorsk, has run 5 kilometers in @bostonmarathon on her prostheses. Yana is raising funds to provide prostheses for a critically wounded Ukrainian soldier. Yana is truly an inspiration! pic.twitter.com/FUtDDy89pc

— Oleh Nikolenko 🇺🇦🇨🇦 (@OlehNikolenko_) April 14, 2024

Instead of a thousand words.

Firefighter Andrii Hrechanyi ran a half-marathon wearing full firefighter gear yesterday.

He dedicated his run to his three Kharkiv colleagues killed by a Russian strike on April 4th. Andrii held their portraits his whole run.

📷: Grunt https://t.co/SBeTVQ0UfF pic.twitter.com/L3xCoqFrfU

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 15, 2024

More stupidity from members of the House GOP majority caucus:

So it makes it totally fine that Putin will end up exterminating and devouring “only” Ukraine? Okey dokey?

HOW DO THESE PEOPLE EVEN MAKE IT TO THE CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA FOR CRIYNG OUT LOUD https://t.co/qF89rdUeGL

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 15, 2024

And some stupidity from the Biden administration:

Washington Post adds a new wrinkle to our @FT scoop last month that the US warned Ukraine not to attack Russian oil refineries with long-range drones. Our original report: https://t.co/DRussu4cAs

WaPo, confirming FT reporting below, reports that VP Kamala Harris asked Zelensky… https://t.co/Ixi2m3BzJw

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 15, 2024

Washington Post adds a new wrinkle to our @FT scoop last month that the US warned Ukraine not to attack Russian oil refineries with long-range drones. Our original report: https://ft.com/content/98f15b60-bc4d-4d3c-9e57-cbdde122ac0c

WaPo, confirming FT reporting below, reports that VP Kamala Harris asked Zelensky personally to not strike Russian refineries.

New: When Kamala Harris met privately with Volodymyr Zelensky in February, she told him something he didn’t want to hear: Refrain from attacking Russian oil refineries, a tactic U.S. officials believed would raise global energy prices and invite more aggressive Russian…

— John Hudson (@John_Hudson) April 15, 2024

New: When Kamala Harris met privately with Volodymyr Zelensky in February, she told him something he didn’t want to hear: Refrain from attacking Russian oil refineries, a tactic U.S. officials believed would raise global energy prices and invite more aggressive Russian retaliation inside Ukraine.

The request irritated Zelensky and his top aides, who view Kyiv’s string of drone strikes on Russian energy facilities as a rare bright spot in a grinding war of attrition. Zelensky brushed off the recommendation, but in subsequent weeks, Washington reinforced the warning in multiple conversations with Kyiv, including by Jake Sullivan, who traveled to Ukraine’s capital in March.

Instead of acquiescing to the U.S. requests, Ukraine doubled down on the strategy, striking a range of Russian facilities, including an April 2 attack on Russia’s third-largest refinery 800 miles from the font.

The incidents have exacerbated tensions in an already-strained relationship and come as Biden ramps up his reelection campaign amid a six-month high in oil prices.

Defenders of Ukraine’s strategy accuse the White House of prioritizing domestic politics over Kyiv’s military goals. U.S. officials say the rationale behind their warnings is more nuanced than critics suggest, noting that Moscow’s counterattack has hurt Ukraine more than the refinery attacks hurt Russia.

More details here:
https://washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/04/15/ukraine-russia-oil-refinery-attacks/

Dudette’s gotta go!

Harris’s strategic malpractice likely explains this statement from Ukraine’s Foreign Minister:

“If partners tell us: “We’re giving you seven Patriot batteries tomorrow, but we have a request to you – can you not do this and that?”, then there’s something to talk about.

But if we don’t have the batteries, don’t have air packages, and we’re being asked not to do something……

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 15, 2024

“If partners tell us: “We’re giving you seven Patriot batteries tomorrow, but we have a request to you – can you not do this and that?”, then there’s something to talk about.

But if we don’t have the batteries, don’t have air packages, and we’re being asked not to do something… then what do we have to talk about? Then everyone does whatever it takes to survive…

I cannot believe and I think no one in Ukraine would believe a power as large as the United States military does not have a single Patriot battery to save infrastructure worth billions of dollars, as well as priceless Ukrainian lives.”

– Ukraine’s foreign affairs minister @DmytroKuleba

By the way, it's been 4 months since the last authorised US military aid package for Ukraine, and lots of very ridiculous "foreign policy realists" insisted that Ukraine and Russia would broker a peace treaty if Ukraine was finally cut off.

All that has happened is that more…

— Oz Katerji (@OzKaterji) April 15, 2024

By the way, it’s been 4 months since the last authorised US military aid package for Ukraine, and lots of very ridiculous “foreign policy realists” insisted that Ukraine and Russia would broker a peace treaty if Ukraine was finally cut off.

All that has happened is that more Ukrainian soldiers and civilians have been killed because Ukraine now lacks the ammunition to sufficiently defend itself, while Russia continues to rearm through its allies. The war is not only still ongoing, but Russia is gaining the upper hand.

Helping Ukraine or abandoning Ukraine. Those have always been the only two options on the table. There is no magic third approach which leads to peace, no matter how many times you’ve been fed that lie by charlatans.

Nuclear weapons are what sets apart the response of multiple countries to missile and drone barrages by Iran and Russia. The takeaway here is clear: if you want to be taken seriously, you must possess nuclear weapons. Decades of non-proliferation efforts continue to be undermined

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) April 15, 2024

Not only is Tatarigami correct here, but I expect that the Baltic states, Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Poland are all working very quietly on how to remedy this deficit. I also expect Ukraine is doing the same. If the leaders of these states have not ordered the appropriate folks to work this problem set, then they are fools.

The Czech Republic:

Czech PM @P_Fiala: “We are working to secure a further 300,000 [artillery] rounds and have already contracted the first 180,000. These will be delivered to the Ukrainian front in the coming months.” https://t.co/ECGNlBkbkH

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 15, 2024

From The Financial Times:

The writer is prime minister of the Czech Republic

The Czech ammunition initiative has attracted considerable international attention. This is a positive thing. At the moment, European nations buying additional artillery ammunition from other countries is the only way to quickly provide Ukraine with urgently needed rounds.

The situation in Ukraine is critical. As the war enters its third year, the country’s armed forces are under unprecedented pressure. They are running out of ammunition, meaning they are forced to make difficult decisions every day. This makes it extremely hard to hold their lines — the very lines that will decide the security and future of the whole of Europe.

Russia, on the other hand, has plenty of military assets. How many more rounds is the aggressor firing at this moment? One estimate gives the Russians a fivefold advantage.

Fortunately, western democracies recognise that it is impossible to be impartial in this conflict. In addition to financial, humanitarian and refugee assistance, we have not hesitated to deliver much-needed arms and ammunition from the beginning.

Unfortunately, we have not been able to move as quickly as Ukraine needs, and our defence industries have not yet been able to meet such high demand.

We are therefore looking for new ways to overcome these challenges. The Czech Republic’s answer to this question is the ammunition initiative. Its purpose is to find hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds as quickly as possible on world markets (where they are still available in abundance), to finance their purchase with co-operating western states and to get them to the front without delay.

The scheme is deceptively simple, which is why it has achieved significant success so soon after its launch. We are working to secure a further 300,000 rounds and have already contracted the first 180,000. These will be delivered to the Ukrainian front in the coming months. We could never have achieved such promising figures without the strong initial support of Denmark and the Netherlands — and some 20 other countries who later joined us in pledging their help.

The Czech Republic has been supporting the defenders of Ukraine for a long time. Over the past two years, we have supplied them with more than 1mn large-calibre ammunition rounds. This shows that our current initiative is not a one-off stunt. We are striving to create a robust ammunition supply mechanism that will directly help turn the tide on the frontline. To do so, we are leveraging our unique expertise, grounded in long-standing support for Ukraine, the strength of our defence industry and our historically established contacts in third countries.

This initiative also has another, equally important, aim: to give the west more time to adapt. War is changing our world; the days of complacency are over. This means we can no longer avoid fundamental changes at home, such as strengthening societal resilience and rebuilding sufficient defence capacity. We need to get used to the fact that a responsible security policy must include much greater investment in defence to deter attackers. Otherwise, we will not fare well in an era of resumed competition with Russia and other aggressive actors.

Luckily, all these changes are taking place: we are investing much more in security and modernising our defence forces. Nato is expanding. And even those actors in individual countries who until recently believed it was possible to negotiate sensibly with Russia are now fully aware of their share of responsibility.

The Czech initiative is part of these efforts. Its aim is to fill the ammunition gap, especially until Europe can produce enough ammunition on its own. We will not shrug off this responsibility.

There were air raid alerts across Ukraine again this morning.

Air raid alert is in Kyiv region, and some other regions now, due to ballistic rocket strike danger. pic.twitter.com/MBAJrbgqGd

— Kyrylo Loukerenko (@K_Loukerenko) April 15, 2024

Russian glide bombs incoming… try and imagine this hell that the Ukrainian military is going through every single day of this war as free world leaders can’t get rid of their paralyzing fear of Vladimir Putin’s global intimidation. pic.twitter.com/FFDUqtTGQE

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 15, 2024

Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast and Dnipro:

Explosions reported in Dnipro!

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 15, 2024

Kharkiv:

These minutes, russian troops are launching missile strikes on Kharkiv Oblast! Multiple explosions have been reported.

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 15, 2024

Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

April, 2024. The village of Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia region.
There is not a single undamaged house left here. russian terrorists destroy everything on their way.
The russian invaders must be stopped and punished.

📹: Operational Command South pic.twitter.com/VDQ9i8EKBi

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 15, 2024

Serebryansky Forest, Luhansk Oblast:

Serebryansky Forest.
The hellscape of the Russian war. pic.twitter.com/Cm7qbKeBTR

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 15, 2024

 

Moscow:

🇷🇺 Gerasimov said that Russian troops will use the experience they gained during their “special military operation” in Ukraine to prepare CSTO troops.

Ukraine is just a warm-up for the Russian war machine. Every next war will get worse. pic.twitter.com/Ciy5eoDbq1

— Victoria (@victoriaslog) April 15, 2024

She says there is a feeling in the Israeli security establishment that Israel cannot afford not to retaliate. (not verbatim)

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) April 15, 2024

you can see the Harel event https://t.co/unYNXHMj57

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) April 15, 2024

Here’s the full video:

Last night Subsole asked:

So if Israel decides to go War of the Cities, what sort of defenses does the Iranian theocracy have (besides some impressively hardened facilities and a scaldingly comprehensive disregard for their citizens’ lives)? I have read they have pretty solid air defenses, but I don’t know if that refers specifically to aircraft, or includes everything else.

Because if one side has defenses, however imperfect, and the other does not…that is a fire Iran may regret playing wwith. Along with a great many others.

Here’s something some guy named Silverman wrote about this back in 2018. That guy’s making me look bad!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:

There is always a place for kindness.

📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/NsCuzMkhVl

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 15, 2024

Little dusty in here.

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

🤝🏻 #дснс #патрондснс

♬ original sound – A2 – A2

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 782: If the Opposite of Pro Is Con, Then the Opposite of Progress is a GOP Majority in CongressPost + Comments (35)

Take the Fucking Win

by WaterGirl|  April 15, 202410:48 am| 161 Comments

This post is in: Biden Administration in Action, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Politics, War in Ukraine

I suspect we are going to have a rocky week ahead.

Live from New York, it’s Saturday Night!   Let’s try that again.  Live from New York, it’s Donnie’s first criminal trial.  For real!

News from NY: Judge Merchan has DENIED Trump’s motion for him to recuse.  Unsurprising, but great news nonetheless!

.

She really is Putin’s puppet, isn’t she?  She is talking about “Ukrainian Nazis”.

Funny, Putin said the same thing 🤔 https://t.co/5BXYi9IkdC

— Jared Moskowitz (@JaredEMoskowitz) April 14, 2024

Though I do have to agree with her on one thing.  They should have been separate bills because Ukraine is being fucking attacked night after night after night.  I completely believe that Bibi launched his attack on Iran as a way to tie President Biden’s hands as he was this close to telling Bibi no more weapons until you stop what you’re doing, for real.

I hope this is an indication that Biden’s pressure on Bibi is working.

A week after stating that a date has been set for a southern Gaza – Rafah operation, Israeli PM Netanyahu has decided to postpone the operation. -Kann News pic.twitter.com/4sSJDF1ugL

— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) April 14, 2024

Take the win, Bibi.  Take the fucking win.

“You got a win. Take the win.”

That’s really good advice from Biden to Netanyahu.

Early on, this Iranian attack looked like it might have been worst case scenario. Thankfully, it turned out to be mostly noise and bluster.

Israel should use this opportunity to deescalate. https://t.co/MWQisCGOpt

— Angry Staffer 🌻 (@Angry_Staffer) April 14, 2024

.

GOP has to choose now:

America, Israel, Ukraine, the West
or
Trump, Russia, Iran, Hamas https://t.co/NfwRjuiK1P

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) April 13, 2024

Such a relief to have competence on our side.

Say the obvious: the last week was a tour de force of international crisis management for the Biden White House. https://t.co/pAyFdMy5lq via @TPM

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) April 14, 2024

Josh Marshall (TPM)

The U.S. telegraphed more or less exactly what Iran was going to do via extremely good intelligence (reminiscent of the lead up to the invasion of Ukraine). It undoubtedly played a huge role bringing Jordan, Saudi Arabia and likely other Arab states into active and public armed action in defense of Israel. It positioned and deployed U.S. anti-ballistic destroyers and aerial assets to itself shoot down roughly a hundred of the estimated 300+ aerial devices Iran launched at Israel. Together, Israel, the U.S. and various allied Arab states took down 99% or more of all those devices. Iran launched a massive aerial bombardment and virtually none of it got through. And now the U.S. has managed to get Israel not to launch an immediate and inevitably escalatory retaliation.

It goes without saying that no administration works on its own. It comes to the game with the world’s most powerful military and major power status. It’s operating with Arab allies who have been gravitating toward a de facto anti-Iran alliance with Israel for years. And yet, anyone who knows anything about foreign or defense policy knows that most of it is all the endless number of things that can wrong and the one or two ways they can go right. Navigating the last week to this point today is a tour de force of international crisis management for the Biden White House.

Open thread.

Take the Fucking WinPost + Comments (161)

War for Ukraine Day 781: A Brief(ish) Sunday Night Update

by Adam L Silverman|  April 14, 20247:45 pm| 62 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, France, Iran, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Silverman on Security, United Kingdom, War, War in Ukraine

Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

I chose not to do an update on Israel and Iran because there’s not much to say. The US assembled a coalition with the British, French, Jordanians, and Saudis to either take down Iranian drones and missiles that were overflying their airspaces (the Jordanians and Saudis) or to just shoot them down en route regardless of whose air space they were in (the US, Britain, and France). There was only one Israeli casualty – a 7 year old Bedouin girl was injured and is being treated in an Israel hospital – and minimal damage to the bases in the Golan and the Negev. President Biden apparently got Bibi to not immediately retaliate, thereby lowering the temperature. At the same time he laid it on thick telling Bibi that this was a huge victory for Israel, demonstrated how Israel can defend itself, and that Bibi should take the win. The reality is that had the US and the coalition the Biden administration had not quickly put together interceded, we have no idea whether Israel’s air defense and missile defense would have been effective enough. Because of the intervention of the US led coalition, we don’t really know how effective the David’s Arrow and David’s sling missile defense systems are.

Ukraine condemns Iran’s attack on Israel using “Shahed” drones and missiles. We in Ukraine know very well the horror of similar attacks by Russia, which uses the same “Shahed” drones and Russian missiles, the same tactics of mass air strikes.

Every effort must be made to prevent…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) April 14, 2024

Ukraine condemns Iran’s attack on Israel using “Shahed” drones and missiles. We in Ukraine know very well the horror of similar attacks by Russia, which uses the same “Shahed” drones and Russian missiles, the same tactics of mass air strikes.

Every effort must be made to prevent a further escalation in the Middle East. Iran’s actions threaten the entire region and the world, just as Russia’s actions threaten a larger conflict, and the obvious collaboration between the two regimes in spreading terror must face a resolute and united response from the world.

The sound of “Shahed” drones, a tool of terror, is the same in the skies over the Middle East and Europe. This sound must serve as a wake-up call to the free world, demonstrating that only our unity and resoluteness can save lives and prevent the spread of terror worldwide.

The world cannot wait for discussions to go on. Words do not stop drones and do not intercept missiles. Only tangible assistance does. The assistance we are anticipating. We must strengthen security and resolutely counter all those who want to make terror a new normal.

It is critical that the United States Congress make the necessary decisions to strengthen America’s allies at this critical time.

 

Difference is that in Ukraine it sometimes happens on a daily basis https://t.co/EyRpJNOd0H

— Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum) April 14, 2024

We do know that modern fighter jets are a necessary component of anti-drone and anti-missile defense. While they already knew this, the Ukrainians have again taken note of this reality. And that at the end of the day, despite all the rhetoric, they are on their own. No one is going to launch fighters to intercept inbound drones and missiles targeting Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure. And because the Biden administration dithered, hemmed, hawed, and let Putin have a say in their deliberations, the Ukrainians are still month’s away from getting F-16s. Israel does something strategically stupid and it gets all the help it needs. Ukraine fights for its life and gets fuck all.

As of right now, 7:09 PM EDT, the only air raid alerts are the ones over Russian occupied Luhansk and Crimea.

While the US was leading a coalition to defend Israel, the Russians once again bombarded Kharkiv:

Russian troops struck a private house in Kharkiv Oblast with an air bomb, resulting in the deaths of a couple living there. A 61-year-old woman and a 68-year-old man were killed, buried beneath the rubble of their home. pic.twitter.com/CCpdhnvlK0

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 14, 2024

Dnipro was also targeted again today. Unfortunately I can’t embed the tweet with video from Iulia Mendel because it is one of the ones that won’t embed because Musk has manipulated the code to target certain types of posts about Ukraine.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Assistance to Ukraine is Still Limited, and Russia Still Has Access to Missile Components – Address by the President

14 April 2024 – 20:39

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

This day, just as every day of this war, began with the results of our defenders of the sky. Last night, they managed to shoot down 10 “Shahed” drones out of 10 used by the Russians. I am grateful to all our warriors of the mobile firing groups and all other defenders of the sky. In total, Russian terrorists have already used almost 130 “Shahed” drones against Ukraine this week. Fortunately, we managed to shoot down most of them. They also used more than 80 Russian missiles and almost 700 guided aerial bombs. Unfortunately, it is much more difficult to destroy them. And these are the numbers for this one week only.

Today missiles and drones were used again. Dnipro and Nikopol, Pokrovsk and other cities in the Donetsk region, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Sumy regions. There are casualties and, unfortunately, fatalities. My condolences to all those who have lost their loved ones.

Russia uses every day, week and month to inflict significant damage. Unfortunately, assistance to Ukraine is still limited, and the Russian state still has access to critical components needed to produce missiles and drones. Each missile targeting Ukraine contains at least dozens of components – electronics, chips – supplied by companies from other countries and imported through the territory of Russia’s neighbors. The “Shahed” drones also contain components produced in the free world. All of this must and can be stopped: the connivance at terror, the ability of terrorists to seek accomplices around the world, and all forms of Russian terror itself.

Modern aviation proves its effectiveness, modern air defense systems are capable of protecting lives – this was demonstrated in the Middle East when aviation and air defense shot down Iranian missiles and “Shahed” drones aimed at Israel. The whole world sees what real defense is. It sees that it is feasible. And the whole world saw that Israel was not alone in this defense – the threat in the sky was also being eliminated by its allies. And when Ukraine tells its allies that unity provides the best defense, they are already well aware of its effectiveness. They are aware of it and ensure it. And when Ukraine says that its allies should not turn a blind eye to Russian missiles and drones, it means action is needed – a bold one.

It is not rhetoric that protects the sky, it is not opinions that curb the production of missiles and drones for terror. And the fact that sanctions against Russia are still being circumvented, and that we in Ukraine have been waiting for months for a vital support package – that we are still waiting for a vote in Congress – shows that the terrorists’ confidence has been on the rise for months as well. We cannot waste any more time.

Real protection of life must be ensured wherever there is a terrorist threat to it. Everything must be done to prevent evil and wars from spreading across the world – in Europe, the Middle East, or anywhere else. I thank everyone who understands this. Everyone who can protect life must do so. Everyone who can restrict the potential of terror must do so. Ukraine, the Middle East, and all other parts of the world equally deserve a just and lasting peace.

And one more thing. The frontline. The situation at the front in such a fierce war is always tough. But these days – especially in the Donetsk sector – it is aggravating. I am grateful to every brigade, every soldier and commander who are doing everything to defend our positions and who are destroying the occupier. This week, I am especially grateful to the 58th separate motorized infantry brigade, the 68th separate jaeger brigade, and the 148th separate artillery brigade of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces – its warriors are unfailingly effective. And this week was the 148th brigade’s day. My congratulations to you guys, thank you! I am also thankful to the 55th Zaporizhzhia Sich separate artillery brigade. Well done! It is also worth mentioning the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine – the Kraken and Artan units and the 9th Department of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine. I am proud of you!

Glory to all who contribute to Ukraine’s defense against Russian terror! Glory to everyone who makes our country stronger. I thank everyone in the world who helps!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is an interview with Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry Dmytro Kuleba. I have the closed captioning on and set to English:

The price:

Yana Stepanenko running the Boston marathon!

Unbreakable spirit! Glory to Yana! https://t.co/iGEToFtHdu pic.twitter.com/rSyS7dlG0I

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 14, 2024

Here’s more on how the US is being perceived in Ukraine:

To the hundreds of bots or trolls saying Ukraine is a pawn in US game:

Whatever the level of disappointment and abandonment we may feel about our partners, this will never distort the sole party to blame for the war and Ukraine’s suffering: Russia and its people.

So fuck off.

— Stas Olenchenko 🇺🇦 (@StasOlenchenko) April 14, 2024

3. Nobody pushed Ukrainians to resist. It was Ukraine’s resistance that pushed the West to review their Russia policies and support us.
4. The only way forward is to keep supporting Ukraine’s Armed Forces, build stronger bonds and keep working to victory.
5. Russia will fall.

— Stas Olenchenko 🇺🇦 (@StasOlenchenko) April 14, 2024

To wit👇.

The reality is that while Ukraine is less of an ally than Israel, it is Israel that causes greater inconvenience.

The strategic stakes are great in Israel/Palestine, but they’re greater in Ukraine. Failing to contain Russia will make Iran seem like child’s play. https://t.co/Ig0wz7khhp

— Sam Greene (@samagreene) April 14, 2024

Expect Russia to ramp up attacks in Ukraine in order to drive home the point.

The question is whether Washington will persist in compartmentalizing these conflicts, or whether it will recognize its strategic priorities, rein in Bibi, and redouble its resolve in Ukraine.

— Sam Greene (@samagreene) April 14, 2024

Dipshit, ineffective, self promoting Democratic campaign operatives need to shut the fuck up.

We see the blockade by Johnson/MAGA.

However, please understand that America’s partisanship issues won’t matter much if Ukraine gets abandoned & exterminated by Russia.

If the US is a functional democracy and a leader of the free world, it has to find workarounds & solutions.

— Stas Olenchenko 🇺🇦 (@StasOlenchenko) April 14, 2024

The interception of Iranian missiles and drones by American and British air defense systems over Israel is very showing.

On one side, Russia has been attacking Ukraine for two years using various means, ranging from cruise missiles to gliding bombs and drones, including those…

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) April 14, 2024

The interception of Iranian missiles and drones by American and British air defense systems over Israel is very showing.

On one side, Russia has been attacking Ukraine for two years using various means, ranging from cruise missiles to gliding bombs and drones, including those supplied by Iran. Despite this, Ukraine stands alone in defending itself against these deadly assaults, with neighboring NATO countries even tolerating Russian provocations with missiles flying into NATO airspace, and no one takes them out.

Meanwhile, the close alliance between Russia and Iran, the “new Axis,” is evident. Yet, targeted strikes against Iran, including its top military figures, are carried out regularly and effectively.

The disparity between Iran and Russia is not vast, except for one crucial aspect: Russia possesses huge nuclear arsenals and frequently employs them in nuclear blackmail. While the West states how it is hesitant to engage in direct conflict with Russia to avoid direct confrontation, it seems more willing to confront Iran.

Concerningly, the West is trembling before Russian nuclear blackmail and will continue being intimidated. And of course, this does not mean that the Americans and the British should have avoided helping Israel (which is not in NATO, like Ukraine), that’s not the point.

No, the issue is that Ukraine’s so-called allies have to be begged to provide defence to protect the vital energy infrastructure, while to others, the aid is handed out without any hesitation.

Speaking of the Starlink Snowflake, the Russian neo-NAZIs are very fond of him:

I mean, it’s just a violent neo-Nazi group known for committing brutal atrocities against Ukrainians and openly propagating racial hatred and Russian white supremacy – not a big deal.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 14, 2024

Chasiv Yar:

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi says Russia set a goal of capturing Chasiv Yar by 9 May ("Victory Day" in Russia), in line with the future targets of reaching Kramatorks agglomeration (where Ukrainian Eastern HQ is located).

Full message:

"I worked in another, very important and… pic.twitter.com/kendjcYQks

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) April 14, 2024

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi says Russia set a goal of capturing Chasiv Yar by 9 May (“Victory Day” in Russia), in line with the future targets of reaching Kramatorks agglomeration (where Ukrainian Eastern HQ is located).

Full message:

“I worked in another, very important and dangerous direction.

The enemy is also concentrating efforts to break through our defenses west of Bakhmut, to reach the Siverskyi Donets – Donbas canal, capture the settlement of Chasiv Yar, and create conditions for further advance to the Kramatorsk agglomeration.

The implementation of the enemy’s plans is hindered by the heroic defense of our brigades, which literally dug into the ground, holding back the enemy’s daily attacks. Using numerical superiority and various motivational factors, including shootings [of their own], separate groups of enemy infantry reached the “Noviy” district, but were destroyed by FPV-kamikaze strikes and artillery fire.

At the same time, the threat remains relevant, taking into account the fact that the higher Russian military leadership has set the task for its troops to capture Chasiv Yar by May 9.

In order to respond adequately to the actions of the enemy and strengthen the defense of our troops in this direction, measures were taken to significantly strengthen the brigades with ammunition, drones, and EW devices.

The main conclusion from the two-day work at the front is the need to improve the quality of training, including the moral and psychological component, to increase the number of high-tech unmanned systems of various purposes with trained operators, to improve the quality of conducting asymmetric operations in order to reduce the combat potential of the enemy.

We continue to carry out organisational activities with an emphasis on increasing the efficiency of management, eliminating duplication, directing freed resources to support combat units and units.

The main task of these measures is to increase the fighting capacity of our troops, save the lives of our soldiers, disrupt the enemy’s plans, and ensure the preparation of reserves.

The fight continues!
Glory to Ukraine!”

https://t.me/osirskiy/652

Novomykhailivka:

Two russian BTR-82 APCs tried to attack Ukrainian positions near Novomykhailivka, but something went wrong.

📹: 79th Air Assault Brigade pic.twitter.com/WVuBFDFP7h

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 14, 2024

Antonivka Village:

russian Buk air defense system explode like a firework near the Antonivka village.

📹: Khortytsia operational-strategic group pic.twitter.com/4OzkiiMmRE

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 14, 2024

 

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

No new Patron tweets tonight and I’m saving the video for tomorrow. So here’s some adjacent material:

Please watch this story of Rex the dog.

His home was ruined by Russian shelling, and Rex was trapped inside by the debris. Rex's owner was injured, his daughter took him to the hospital (the ambulance couldn't get there because the shelling was that intense).

Volunteers rescued… pic.twitter.com/gT0Psage8v

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 14, 2024

Please watch this story of Rex the dog.

His home was ruined by Russian shelling, and Rex was trapped inside by the debris. Rex’s owner was injured, his daughter took him to the hospital (the ambulance couldn’t get there because the shelling was that intense).

Volunteers rescued Rex and brought him to Kharkiv.

Rex’s owners kept looking for him, and finally, they were reunited.

This is what we're fighting for. pic.twitter.com/71ZfmYq9BK

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 14, 2024

War for Ukraine Day 781: A Brief(ish) Sunday Night UpdatePost + Comments (62)

War for Ukraine Day 780: The World Burns

by Adam L Silverman|  April 13, 20247:19 pm| 83 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Iran, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

As I start tonight’s post, 6:17 PM EDT, only Kharkiv is under air raid alert and it has been under attack for the past two hours.

And Israel, Israel is under air raid alert too.

I’m going to keep the focus tonight on Ukraine, because, while Iran is not blameless in its own and its proxies actions against Israel, quite frankly, the Israelis, and specifically Bibi, have done this to themselves with their attack on the Quds Force commander in Damascus. I don’t want anyone else in Israel, the West Bank, or Gaza to get hurt, and there is a real risk of that when debris comes down as Iran has launched several hundred drones and an unknown number of cruise missiles. These are expected to target Israeli military facilities in the Golan and Negev in the early morning hours, not Israeli civilians and civilian infrastructure. This is the same aerial bombardment strategy of using drones to overwhelm air defense so the missiles can get through that we are used to seeing the Russians use against the Ukrainians.

We are where we are because, as Avraham Shalom, the head of the Shin Bet in the early to mid 80s, stated in regard to Israeli leadership in The Gatekeepers documentary: ayn strategik, raq taktik. No strategy, only tactics. I will, however, start with a couple of items pertaining to what is going on between Israel and Iran.

First, a more recent former head of Shin Bet:

Former Head of Shin Bet Nadav Argaman states it plain and simple @Uvda_tweet: “if Netanyahu isn’t removed from office, Israel is doomed” #NetanyahuMustGoHomeNow #BringThemAllHomeNOW (credit:@UnxeptableD) pic.twitter.com/poj2CNhmku

— Dan Arbell (@DanArbell) April 13, 2024

And two assessments from Eran Etzion, the former deputy director of Israel’s equivalent to the US National Security Council.

⭕️Crucial points from Eran Etzion, former deputy head of the National Security Council in the Israeli Prime Minister's office:

🛑The elimination of the Iranian general in Damascus was one of two things – either severe strategic negligence that needs to be investigated, or a… https://t.co/kciMmCpvL6

— Sina Toossi (@SinaToossi) April 13, 2024

⭕️Crucial points from Eran Etzion, former deputy head of the National Security Council in the Israeli Prime Minister’s office:

🛑The elimination of the Iranian general in Damascus was one of two things – either severe strategic negligence that needs to be investigated, or a deliberate attempt to draw Iran into the conflict, in absolute contradiction to the demands of the USA & its interests. Anyone involved in this decision needs to provide explanations.

🛑Israel is deep in the most severe crisis in its history, with broken national decision-making mechanisms, led by a man who has lost his judgment and acts based on foreign considerations, & without control and oversight mechanisms over the executive authority.

🛑In my cautious estimate, what is actually happening is coordination between the USA and Iran and containment of the Iranian response. If the coordination succeeds, the USA will prevent an Israeli response. And if the coordination fails, the USA will be in a difficult dilemma.
_

Eran Etzion, former deputy head of the National Security Council in the Israeli Prime Minister's office:

"At this stage, it is too early to assess what exactly Iran is trying to achieve with its massive and unprecedented retaliatory operation against Israel.

However, it seems… https://t.co/LuPlSph8lS

— Sina Toossi (@SinaToossi) April 13, 2024

Eran Etzion, former deputy head of the National Security Council in the Israeli Prime Minister’s office:

“At this stage, it is too early to assess what exactly Iran is trying to achieve with its massive and unprecedented retaliatory operation against Israel.

However, it seems that Iran does not intend to enter into a full-scale war. This is also clearly evident from the wording of the American response. Both countries are trying to contain the incident. Arab states are also walking a tightrope. They will intercept Iranian armaments that enter their territory and will not approve the passage of Israeli aircraft.

Tomorrow morning, when we will probably be after the Iranian attack, a damage assessment will be conducted. As long as the damages are limited (and we are not entering a more precise resolution at the moment), the USA will likely demand Israel not to respond, or to respond in a very limited way.

And so it is right that Israel should act. The main reason is the fact that Israel does not have a functioning government, led by a person who is unfit, and that the top ranks of the IDF are tainted by the terrible failure of 10/7.

This government must not drag Israel into a regional war, and we are already a step from there. In hopes that the event can be closed quickly, we must return to the negotiating table with Hamas, quickly agree on a hostage deal in exchange for a ceasefire, and go to snap elections.

Only a competent government, with new military leadership, will be worthy of the trust of the citizens of Israel, and will be able to start planning and implementing a comprehensive strategy against regional threats.

This will be done in full and close coordination with the USA, and with the relevant regional countries.”

Iran’s official statement:

Conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense, Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli…

— Permanent Mission of I.R.Iran to UN, NY (@Iran_UN) April 13, 2024

Bibi is hold up in a built to spec nuclear bunker under the home of an Israeli-American billionaire in Jerusalem where he and his wife Sara have been hiding from the protestors every night.

Jerusalem: Protest gathers outside home of US duty free billionaire Simon Falic, where the Netanyahous are hunkering down in his private reinforced bomb shelter. (For real)
(Orna Kupferman) pic.twitter.com/nqfEsxM4k1

— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) April 13, 2024

Says it all really.

Bibi will, of course, do the stupidest thing possible in response because he needs to expand his war. The war against Hamas in Gaza is a failure. Israel has not achieved a single one of its strategic objectives because it never actually developed a theater campaign plan to do so. Just a tactical response. On the 8th of October 2023, Israel’s war cabinet voted to go to war with Hezbullah in Lebanon. President Biden put a stop to that, though Israel has been trading missile strikes both with Hezbullah in Lebanon and with other Iranian proxies in Syria. Those tit for tat strikes have led Israelis living in the north to flee. At the same time the extremist ultra-nationalist and ultra-devout settlers in the West Bank are fighting their own low intensity war against the Palestinians there. They are being egged on by convicted terrorist and Minister of National Security ben-Gvir and Minister of the Treasury Smotrich. Bibi needs a wider regional war even though he can’t even win the ones he’s currently waging.

Again, I DO NOT want to see any innocent Israelis, Palestinians in Gaza or the West Bank, or even Iranians who live under their theocratic tyrants, injured as a result of this strategic stupidity. However, as long as Bibi and his extremist coalition are in charge, Israel needs to be treated by the US as a hostile foreign power. It won’t be, but it should be.

Iran’s retaliatory strike on Israel will also negatively affect Ukraine:

Iran's attack on Israel has another unforeseen consequence: Russia's attacks on Ukraine will mostly go unnoticed, essentially giving Russia a free hand for further assaults on Ukrainian infrastructure. https://t.co/ee9l4gxHd9

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 13, 2024

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. It is a bit of good news. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Germany Will Provide Us With Another Patriot System, And We Are Working on an Additional IRIS-T System — Address of the President of Ukraine

13 April 2024 – 20:47

I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!

Today we have a very good result of our international work: Germany will provide us with an additional Patriot system — Chancellor Scholz and I agreed on this today. We are also working with Germany on an additional IRIS-T system, which is also a strong air defence system, and on missiles for our existing air defence systems. Germany’s leadership is truly felt, and thanks to this leadership, we will be able to save thousands of lives and give Ukraine more protection from Russian terror.

Of course, today we also talked with the Chancellor about our joint international events — we are preparing for the Ukraine Recovery Conference, which will soon be held in Germany. And together we will do everything to make the Global Peace Summit – the first, inaugural summit to be held in June – a real success. This also requires the leadership of partners, and I am grateful to everyone who helps. Olaf, Mr. Chancellor, thank you again for the air defence!

We will continue to work with all partners who can also help. This week alone, I have already had conversations and meetings with the presidents of Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Romania, Poland, Hungary, Switzerland, and Latvia. A new bilateral security agreement was signed with Latvia. I also spoke with the prime ministers of the Netherlands, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland. Today I had a conversation with the Chancellor of Germany. We will do everything to ensure the results in the coming weeks as well. In every conversation, at every meeting, air defence and the frontline are the main subjects. We are doing everything to have more capabilities for our Defence Forces and the defence-industrial complex.

Each week also brings new contracts for joint production of weapons. We are also working to finance more of our production right here in Ukraine. Ukraine’s potential to produce weapons, in particular, FPVs, is quite high. And we agree with our partners on joint steps to finance this work for the sake of our common strength — the whole of Europe, and all those who are threatened by Russian terror.

Today it is important to honour all our people who work for the sake of Ukrainian strength. This day is a professional holiday for the Ukrainian defence industry. Today I granted state awards to people who are actively developing this industry of ours. Most of them cannot be talked about openly now, and the reasons are clear. But this does not diminish our gratitude to them.

I am proud of every enterprise that produces weapons for Ukraine. We are all rightly proud of every result of Ukrainian weapons — our drones, which can reach more and more distant targets — and we are proud of the results of our missiles. All the production of shells and artillery is fundamentally important for Ukraine. Some production facilities that we haven’t had since independence are already yielding results. And despite all the difficulties, five hundred companies are currently operating in our defence industry, most of them are private initiatives. Ukrainian character, our entrepreneurs show themselves from the best side. I am grateful to everyone. I am grateful to all of our 300,000 people who create Ukrainian weapons! Thanks to everyone who helps!

Today, as always, I was also in touch with the military officials, with the Minister of Defence. The situation at the frontline, in some directions, is quite difficult. And everyone who is now showing their resilience, everyone who defends our positions is doing a tremendous job. I am grateful to every soldier and commander!

We are working with partners, particularly in the United States, to strengthen our actions. Glory to everyone who prevents Russian terrorists from achieving their goals. Glory to all who really protect life.

Glory to Ukraine!

+1 Patriot air defense system to Ukraine from Germany, as well as additional air defense missiles for existing systems.
We are grateful to our German partners for an important decision to strengthen Ukraine's air defense.
Modern air defense systems in Ukraine=saved lives of…

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 13, 2024

+1 Patriot air defense system to Ukraine from Germany, as well as additional air defense missiles for existing systems.
We are grateful to our German partners for an important decision to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense.
Modern air defense systems in Ukraine=saved lives of Ukrainians.
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪
@BMVg_Bundeswehr

European countries would face millions of new Ukrainian refugees next winter if russia is allowed now to destroy our energy grid fully and make our cities unlivable. Would that be cheaper than sending us now air defenses which they don't use? https://t.co/6RhZhPVaAC

— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) April 13, 2024

The reason:

A Ukrainian Defender was passing by his native area. His 90 year old grandma cannot see but she recognized her grandson by his beard.

📹: volod_kr/TikTok pic.twitter.com/AwcxRz417N

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 13, 2024

This is cool:

Creativity wins wars.

📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/fQ8a1fywoi

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 13, 2024

General Syrskyi's update on the eastern front: The situation on the Eastern Front has significantly worsened in recent days. This is primarily due to the significant intensification of the enemy's offensive actions after the presidential elections in the Russian Federation.

The… pic.twitter.com/0QKsRksSMf

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) April 13, 2024

General Syrskyi’s update on the eastern front: The situation on the Eastern Front has significantly worsened in recent days. This is primarily due to the significant intensification of the enemy’s offensive actions after the presidential elections in the Russian Federation.

The enemy is actively attacking our positions in the Lyman, Bakhmut directions with assault groups with the support of armored vehicles. In the Pokrovsk direction, he is trying to break through our defenses using dozens of tanks and BMPs.

This is facilitated by warm, dry weather, which has made most of the open areas of the terrain accessible to tanks. Despite significant losses, the enemy is increasing its efforts by using new units on armored vehicles, due to which he periodically achieves tactical success.

Therefore, the first day of my work in the area of the operation is dedicated to this direction and to taking all the necessary measures to stabilize the situation, increase the effectiveness of our troops’ actions, and inflict maximum losses on enemy units.

Based on conclusions regarding the nature of the enemy’s actions, decisions were made aimed at strengthening the most problematic areas of the defense by means of EW and air defense. Also, stocks of drones of all types, anti-tank missiles were replenished, additional reserves of forces and means were moved.

The question of achieving technical superiority over the enemy in high-tech weapons arose again.
Only this will give us the opportunity to defeat the larger enemy and create conditions for overtaking the strategic initiative.
The second serious problem is to improve the quality of training of military personnel, primarily infantry units, so that they can make maximum use of all the capabilities of military equipment and Western weapons.

First of all, the solution of this task depends on the command of the Ground Forces, which has returned in full from the area of hostilities.

The results of my work will be taken into account in the training plans of the troops and governing bodies.

Of course, I honored the best warriors with awards and valuable gifts.
In personal communication with our servicemen, they discussed the current situation, as well as ways to solve all problematic issues. We are aware of the real scale and degree of threat from the enemy and are ready to take adequate and effective actions.

https://t.me/osirskiy/650

 

The Financial Times has more details:

Ukraine’s top commander warned that his outmanned and outgunned army is struggling to halt a multipronged and intensifying Russian offensive, as Kyiv pleads with western partners for more air defences and a critical military aid package remains stalled in the US Congress.

“The situation on the eastern front has significantly worsened in recent days,” Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky wrote on Telegram during a visit to the eastern Donetsk region on Saturday.

He said a “significant intensification of the enemy’s offensive actions” along the 1,000km southeastern frontline was a direct result of Russian President Vladimir Putin becoming emboldened following his recent re-election.

Ukrainian and western officials have told the Financial Times that Russia may be gearing up for a large-scale attack in late spring or summer in hopes of capturing more of the regions of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia. The Kremlin partly occupies these areas, which Putin illegally claimed to have annexed in September 2022.

Officials in Kyiv are also concerned that Moscow might be planning an assault on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city in the north-east. It is mobilising hundreds of thousands of forces and pummelling the city with rockets in preparation.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy this week warned of his country’s diminishing air defence capabilities after massive Russian missile and drones strikes hit Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Ukrainian officials have asked western partners for more Patriot and SAMP/T air defence systems and munitions but were rebuffed.

“The enemy is actively attacking our positions in the Lyman [and] Bakhmut directions with assault groups and the support of armoured vehicles,” Syrsky said, referring to strategically important areas of eastern Ukraine. “In the Pokrovsk direction, it is trying to break through our defences using dozens of tanks and [infantry fighting vehicles].”

Syrsky said the “warm, dry weather, which has made most of the open areas of the terrain accessible to tanks” has aided Russia’s advance.

Russia’s main effort is focused around the mining city of Chasiv Yar, which sits atop a hill just 15km west of Bakhmut, the city destroyed and occupied by Russian soldiers and Wagner mercenaries nearly a year ago after a grinding 11-month fight.

Videos shared on Telegram by Russian military bloggers showed “glide bombs” and heavy artillery pounding Ukrainian positions and flattening apartment buildings in Chasiv Yar.

“This will likely be an important battle. Chasiv Yar is located on defensible high ground,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia programme. “If Russia takes the city, they could potentially increase the rate of advance deeper into Donetsk [region] as part of an expected summer offensive.”

Yuriy Fedorenko, commander of the “Achilles” drone battalion, told the Financial Times last week that Ukrainian troops were outgunned by at least five artillery shells to one but had no choice except to fight.

Speaking near Chasiv Yar, he said losing the town would allow Russian troops “fire control” of the nearby strategic cities of Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk and give them a foothold from which they could launch attacks.

Deep State, a Ukrainian analytical group that monitors the battlefield, said on Saturday that Russian troops had reached a canal that separates Chasiv Yar’s eastern and western districts but had not yet crossed it.

The group suggested that a fierce battle for the city loomed, writing that “the coming weeks will bring a lot of unpleasant and difficult news”.

“The enemy is gathering reserves for the Battle of Chasiv Yar,” said Deep State, which is close to Ukraine’s defence ministry.

Lee said that “immediate increased deliveries of ammunition could prove critical” for Ukrainian forces.

Syrsky said he was taking “all the necessary measures” to stabilise the situation and to “increase the effectiveness of our troops’ actions, and inflict maximum losses on enemy units”.

“Despite significant losses the enemy is increasing its efforts by using new units on armoured vehicles, thanks to which it periodically achieves tactical success,” he said.

Syrsky said he had ordered “the most problematic areas of the defence” to be strengthened with air defence and electronic warfare systems.

“Also, stocks of drones of all types, anti-tank missiles were replenished, additional reserves of forces and means were moved,” he said.

The only way to defeat Russia’s larger and more powerful army and create conditions for seizing the strategic initiative on the battlefield is to achieve technical superiority with “high-tech weapons”, Syrsky said. Those, he suggested, should come from western partners.

Even then, he admitted, Ukraine will still face the challenges of mobilising enough troops for the fight and providing them with sufficient training.

“The second serious problem is to improve the quality of training of military personnel, primarily infantry units, so that they can make maximum use of all the capabilities of military equipment and western weapons,” Syrsky said.

There is a Hebrew phrase that emerged in the Yishuv, the Jewish settlement in mandatory Palestine, during the fight for what would become Israeli independence: Zchor Babi Yar, which translates as remember Babin Yar. There was even a chapter of the Jewish fraternal youth group, AZA, named Zchor Babi Yar. I expect we will eventually, unfortunately, get a Ukrainian phrase that translates to remember Chasiv Yar.

This is a lesson in the importance of quick and decisive military support.

If Ukraine had been given everything it needed to defeat the russians early on, then Iran would have calculated that supporting russia with drones and missiles was pointless.

Instead, western inaction…

— Saint Javelin (@saintjavelin) April 13, 2024

This is a lesson in the importance of quick and decisive military support.

If Ukraine had been given everything it needed to defeat the russians early on, then Iran would have calculated that supporting russia with drones and missiles was pointless.

Instead, western inaction empowered the iranians, the chinese, the russians and others.

Now this is spiraling out of control because of these stupid redlines.

Easy solution.

Peace Through Superior Firepower.

Kharkiv:

Shahed drones reportedly detected in the suburbs of Kharkiv! Kharkiv needs more weapons to defend its skies against rusiian missiles and drones!

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 13, 2024

Simultaneously, Kharkiv Oblast is under russian missile attack!

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 13, 2024

Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

Serebeyansky Forest, the front line of Luhansk Oblast in the sunrise.
The Ardennes of the 21st century.
📸 By Ukraine’s National Guards officer
Denys Zeleny. pic.twitter.com/V0zHY7HPG8

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 13, 2024

Major fire, emergency services involved after a successful missile strike in Luhansk by Ukrainian defence forces. pic.twitter.com/Qy1NPHLGgs

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) April 13, 2024

/2. Additional videos of Luhansk strikes pic.twitter.com/3i9X4DRvAM

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 13, 2024

/4. Videos of the moment of the strike where missiles are visible. Based on the shape of the missile the strike was most likely carried out by Storm Shadow/SCALP. pic.twitter.com/TaqbMWHWwL

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 13, 2024

Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

Ukrainian steel birds are heading to a new combat mission in Donetsk region.

📹: Army Aviation pic.twitter.com/4S8115UjRV

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 13, 2024

Lord, guard and guide the ones who fly
Through the great spaces in the sky.
Be with them always in the air,
In darkening storms or sunlight fair.

/2. BUK was destroyed 26km from the frontline. (47.511632, 37.083317) https://t.co/irp1tJ5tvK pic.twitter.com/UiVJoxJr8O

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 13, 2024

Ochretyne, Avdiivka front:

Ochretyne, a town not far away from Avdiivka.
Russians have destroyed a residential building with a gliding bomb. pic.twitter.com/CMd4VMie6W

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 13, 2024

Chernihiv Oblast:

Russians shot a civilian car in Chernihiv region, the National Police reported.

This morning, the car of a resident of Novhorod-Severskyi came under attack by Russians. The car burst into flames and the man born in 1990 was mortally wounded.

According to the head of the… pic.twitter.com/mYkGPd5vl9

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 13, 2024

Russians shot a civilian car in Chernihiv region, the National Police reported.

This morning, the car of a resident of Novhorod-Severskyi came under attack by Russians. The car burst into flames and the man born in 1990 was mortally wounded.

According to the head of the regional military administration, Viacheslav Chaus, the man was carrying food to local residents.

That’s enough for tonight.

I may be back later with an Israel-Iran war update depending on how things go.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight, so here’s some adjacent material.

I love you I hate you I love you pic.twitter.com/fifM2on3Ji

— Eugene Kibets (@eugenehmg) April 3, 2024

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 780: The World BurnsPost + Comments (83)

War for Ukraine Day 779: The Side that Can’t Shoot Back Loses

by Adam L Silverman|  April 12, 20249:26 pm| 33 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Before we start, I want to make something clear, again: the discharge petition is not going to pass and move the Senate’s supplemental aid bill to the floor of the House for a vote. Even if the remaining dozen or so Democratic holdouts agree to sign on, it would still need four Republicans. The reality, however, is it would need at least six Republicans because Congresswomen Tlaib and Omar will not vote for it because it includes additional military aid for Israel in it’s war with Hamas. I don’t think Congresswoman Bush would vote for it either for the same reason, so more likely seven Republican representatives. That is not going to happen. There is no one weird trick to get this passed. The failure to front load this before the 2022 midterms created the opportunity for Republican obstruction. And before someone in the comments explains to me how defense enterprise management works, it is possible to fund things in the defense appropriations bills for longer than a year.

As I start writing tonight’s update – 8:25 PM EDT – the skies over Ukraine are clear. The only air raid alerts are over Russian occupied Luhansk and Crimea.

That was not the case earlier today:

There is an air raid alert in Kyiv and across Ukraine due to the liftoff of two Russian MiG-31. Each is capable of launching a hypersonic missile. pic.twitter.com/7el44GRpue

— Kyrylo Loukerenko (@K_Loukerenko) April 12, 2024

There is not a single quiet day in Kharkiv Oblast without russian shelling.

Today, russian troops killed a 64-year-old man and wounded two other civilians in the Kupiansk district. #ArmUkraineNow before it's too late! pic.twitter.com/1IADTkJLoa

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 12, 2024

When GEN Cavoli, the Commander of EUCOM and Supreme Allied Commander Europe testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) yesterday he repeated a statement he’d made to the House Armed Services Committee (HASC) the day before:

“If we do not continue to support Ukraine, Ukraine will run out of artillery shells and will run out of air defense interceptors in fairly short order,” said General Christopher Cavoli, explaining that Kyiv is dependent on the United States for those key munitions.

“I can’t predict the future, but I can do simple math,” he said. “Based on my experience in 37-plus years in the U.S. military, if one side can shoot and the other side can’t shoot back, the side that can’t shoot back loses.”

Cavoli also said the failure of U.S. lawmakers to approve a $60 billion supplemental security package is already giving Russia a significant advantage.

“They [Ukraine] are now being outshot by the Russian side 5-to-1,” he told lawmakers. “That will immediately go to 10-to-1 in a matter of weeks.

“We are not talking about months. We are not talking hypothetically,” Cavoli said.

I just received this message from a friend in Ukraine… “Here in Ukraine it seems like the US abandoned us. The US is proclaiming they are for democratic principles but in reality they do not support now the only country that is really fighting for those principles. Hard to see.”

— Eleanor Beardsley (@ElBeardsley) April 12, 2024

 

President Zelenskyy travelled to Chernivsti today. He spoke and participated in the meeting of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities and the Made in Ukraine platform.

Here is the video of his remarks at the former:

show full post on front page

And the latter:

 

The Netherlands:

The Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte@MinPres announced that the Netherlands will provide an additional €1 billion of military support for Ukraine this year. That is on top of the €2 billion that had already been agreed.

We are grateful to our Dutch partners for… pic.twitter.com/axAI2V8dJg

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 12, 2024

The Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte @MinPres
announced that the Netherlands will provide an additional €1 billion of military support for Ukraine this year. That is on top of the €2 billion that had already been agreed.

We are grateful to our Dutch partners for their unwavering support. We appreciate your leadership in supporting freedom.
Together, we are stronger!
🇺🇦🤝🇳🇱

France:

"World War III is already underway. But European leaders, as in the days of Hitler, deny reality"

The main theses the interview with French writer and friend of Ukraine Bernard Henri-Levy for European Pravda.

🔹 The possibility of sending French troops to Ukraine

When… pic.twitter.com/QPxwQjwZuA

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 12, 2024

“World War III is already underway. But European leaders, as in the days of Hitler, deny reality”

The main theses the interview with French writer and friend of Ukraine Bernard Henri-Levy for European Pravda.

🔹 The possibility of sending French troops to Ukraine

When President Macron proposed this option, he was not sure that the French public would support it.

France is the country of the Munich Agreement. In 1938, France and Britain were the godparents of the Munich Agreement with Hitler.

And despite all the tragic events that entailed this agreement, the spirit of Munich has not died in France. Many people still believe that when you face a dictator – such as Putin – you should at least partially meet his demands. They say that if you feed the beast a little, it will become peaceful.

President Macron is one of those who realized that Putin should get nothing. Because if you give the beast a finger, he will want to bite off your hand.

🔹 Will Russia attack NATO countries?

History proves that it is always with dictatorships: Russia is strong when we are weak. And if we are firm and show resilience – dictators are not confident.

There is less chance of Putin’s escalation. Although, of course, he doesn’t want to stop at Ukraine. There are no red lines for him.

🔹 World War III has already begun

“What is happening now is what World War III is all about. We are in the middle of it, with Russia, with Iran, with China, with North Korea, with Israel and Hamas acting with Putin’s support.”

🔹 Key to Ukraine’s victory

The European press often writes about “war fatigue,” but there is far less fatigue in the AFU trenches near Chasiv Yar today than there is in France or Germany.

If the West had given Ukraine the necessary support, this war could have been over rather quickly.

Link to the full interview with
@BHL
in English: https://youtu.be/qqbVooNmzr0?si=Ek5rJ2qM2cfSZNwu

The US, on the other hand, is going to be busy working on this next week:

On the House floor next week: pic.twitter.com/FT4nGEnM3b

— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) April 11, 2024

I went to the House of Representative’s website, this is accurate, not a spoof. The Liberty in Laundry Act prevents the imposition of new energy standards on washing machines.

With U.S. aid still stalled and its army at a breaking point, Ukraine warns: We will lose https://t.co/PcptDIUMi3

— Dan De Luce (@dandeluce) April 12, 2024

NBC News has the details:

KYIV, Ukraine — Forced back, Ukraine is now digging in to stop a collapse across the war’s front lines as Russian attacks and American delays leave Kyiv and its allies to confront the possibility of a painful defeat.

A $61 billion aid package has been stuck in Congress for months, leaving Ukraine exposed on the front lines — running out of ammunition and men — while its energy system now faces an onslaught that is exposing its depleted air defenses.

The shortages forced Kyiv’s military to withdraw from a key eastern city in February, and with no progress in Washington, Ukrainian soldiers are now desperately trying to hold on to their positions along some 600 miles of the front line.

“Nothing has changed: We did not have any shells then, we don’t have any shells now,” said artillery sergeant Andriy, who was part of Kyiv’s retreat from Avdiivka in February after months of intense fighting. “The Russians continue to push in packs, without stopping,” Andriy, who did not want his last name revealed as he was not authorized to speak publicly, told NBC News last week.

Ukrainian leaders, backed up by Western officials, are pushing Republicans to break the logjam before it is too late, fearing the Kremlin could seek to take advantage by launching a new offensive over the summer or sooner.

“They understand that we are in a very weak position right now,” said Oleksandra Ustinova, a member of Ukraine’s parliament who chairs the country’s wartime oversight commission on monitoring aid. “Americans understand that as well. They understand that we literally have nothing to shoot with,” she said in a phone interview this week.On Wednesday, that message was echoed by the top U.S. general in Europe.

A crisis on the battlefield has increasingly become one in the air too.

Russia has turned its attention back to Ukraine’s energy grid, striking key facilities in missile and drone attacks that have exploited a shortage of air defense systems across the country.

But a particular focus has been Kharkiv, forcing rolling blackouts and raising the prospect that Ukraine’s second-largest city could soon become the Kremlin’s primary target.

The city, which had a prewar population of 1.5 million people, lies just 26 miles from the Russian border, and President Vladimir Putin last month hinted at his desire to carve out a “sanitary zone” around the broader Kharkiv region to stop Ukrainian attacks from reaching Russia’s own border regions.

The Ukrainians are looking for additional forms of air defense “of all kinds as soon as humanly possible,” a senior U.S. State Department official said. Kyiv has made it “very clear that the Russians are clearly taking a much more aggressive posture towards Kharkiv right now,” the official said.

Norwegian Chief of Defense Gen. Eirik Kristoffersen said in an interview this week that air defense was key not just to protecting Kharkiv from missile attacks, but to preventing a ground assault on the crucial city. “I don’t see right now that with the current situation that the Russians can do it, but I’m concerned if Ukraine runs out of air defense systems that would change the dynamics,” he said.

Much more at the link.

Meanwhile in Russia: state TV experts discussed Mike Johnson's meeting with Trump as the deciding factor in whether Ukraine will receive stalled US funding. Referring to Mike Johnson, state TV host Olga Skabeeva claimed him as "theirs," just like Trump.https://t.co/OBRdy6Aga4

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) April 12, 2024

Andrea Chalupa has more on Speaker Johnson. First tweet from the thread and the rest from the Thread Reader App:

Digging into Speaker Johnson–a staunch evangelical, and the other MAGA Christian nationalists blocking aid to Ukraine in the House, I discovered that Ukraine plays a role in their demented "end times" world view 🧵

— Andrea Chalupa (@AndreaChalupa) April 11, 2024

Mike Johnson is a staunch evangelical. He was featured in a German documentary on taking his daughter to a purity ball where she signed a pledge to never have sex before marriage. Purity balls are seen as dehumanizing to young girls and women

Speaker Mike Johnson and daughter were profiled attending ‘purity ball’ in 2015 German TV news segmentYears before becoming speaker, Mike Johnson and his family were profiled attending a “purity ball” in a German TV news segment, underscoring his deep conservative views.https://abcnews.go.com/US/speaker-mike-johnson-daughter-profiled-attending-purity-ball/story?id=105785626
Mike Johnson explained that his worldview is the bible. Evangelicals take the bible as fact, including creationism (the Earth was created by God in 6 days) and the end times propheciesImage
It’s well known that evangelicals like Mike Johnson support Israel, because they believe, according to the bible, that Israel will be destroyed in the final battle of good vs evil. Unfortunately, many believe that battle includes Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as part of God’s plan 
Here’s a video of Pat Robertson, one of the most consequential evangelical leaders to build white Christian nationalists into a political force, taking over the GOP. He claims the path to Israel’s destruction begins with Russia’s destruction of Ukraine 

The problem with end times “prophesy” is that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy. This is a great piece on how evangelicals contributed to the conflict in the Middle East, which they see as validation of “prophesy”

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4548756-evangelicals-caused-todays-mess-in-the-middle-east/

Christian nationalists are all about money and power. They align with strongmen to come to power and enrich themselves. Putin and Orban consolidated power with Christian nationalism. Mike Johnson is in this for the money and power, as I discuss here:

Many evangelicals see Russia’s destruction of Ukraine as necessary so Russia can fulfil prophesy by joining the forces of evil to destroy Israel. Pat Robertson provided this handy map to “prove” it’s true. Does Mike Johnson believe this? He said the bible is his worldview.Image
In last week’s @gaslitnation, I discussed with @MoniqueCamarra and @OlgaNYC1211 whether Mike Johnson will ever unblock Ukraine aid. I argued he will not, out of motivations of money and power. He hides behind Marjorie Taylor Greene to deflect blame 
Christian nationalists believe they’re living prophesy, as @terrelljstarr and I discuss in this week’s @gaslitnation. Mike Johnson is part of their “end times” cult. Biden cannot shame or reason with these people. He must work around them to save Ukraine 

Ukraine is a victim of end times prophesy. They want it to fall to usher in the end times and Jesus returns. Contact your rep through this site by a @gaslitnation listener and demand they get the discharge petitions signed to force a vote on Ukraine aid

Urge your Congressional Representatives to support UkraineLook up your US Congress representatives, use our auto-generated draft letters as the starting point for your request to support Ukraine. Make your voice count, save time. Help Ukraine win.https://helpukrainewin.com/

The EU and some of its member states:

Kyiv is specifically lobbying for Patriot systems currently idle in Poland, Romania and Spain to be sent to Ukraine, two people familiar with the talks told the Financial Times.

“They only need seven,” one person said. “But it’s complicated.”https://t.co/rIk4eqSGMp

— Henry Foy (@HenryJFoy) April 12, 2024

From The Financial Times:

European capitals have rebuffed demands from Kyiv to send their air defence systems to Ukraine, after a week of relentless missile and drone bombardments from Russia that have destroyed critical energy plants in the war-torn country.

Ukraine has long warned that it needed urgent air defence supplies to protect itself against an overwhelming number of Russian rockets targeting the country’s power and heating infrastructure.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stepped up pleas this week for US-made Patriot batteries, castigating Kyiv’s western partners for “turning a blind eye” as the capital region saw the destruction of its largest power plant.

Speaking at the Three Seas summit in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius on Thursday, he said Ukraine had fallen into a “routine” in which it suffers Russian air attacks and then pleads for more air defences from western partners who promise to provide them but have failed to deliver.

“Missiles are striking every day, and every day we hear that Ukraine will receive new air defence systems. Every day Russian terrorists cut off the electricity to Kharkiv and our other cities, and every day we hear that new aid is coming soon,” Zelenskyy said. “The reality must finally match the words.”

Josep Borrell, the EU’s chief diplomat, said this week it was “inconceivable” that western countries could not provide seven extra Patriot batteries to Ukraine, given that they had about 100 in their arsenal they could spare.

Kyiv is lobbying for air defence systems in Poland, Romania and Spain to be sent to Ukraine, two people familiar with the talks told the Financial Times.

Kyiv foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba confirmed on a Ukrainian national news telethon late on Friday that “active negotiations” were under way with allies about acquiring two Patriot and one SAMP/T air defence systems.

While Kuleba did not name those allies, officials with knowledge of the discussions told the FT that Ukraine is in talks with Poland and Spain for a Patriot battery from each and with Romania on the French-Italian SAMP/T.

“If the countries where they are located were now ready to hand them over to us, it would be a matter of a week and we would get them,” Kuleba said.

Ukraine currently has at least three Patriot batteries and one SAMP/T battery which it received in 2023.

“They only need seven,” one person said. “But it’s complicated.”

European capitals have said they do not have plans to send more systems to Ukraine, arguing that they need to retain their own defence capabilities.

Germany has given two Patriot systems to Ukraine but made clear this week it would not provide any more.

“We will not be able to offer any more systems for the time being,” the defence ministry said on Monday.

Ukraine’s demands have put a spotlight on strategic minimum levels of defence capabilities, and whether European Nato states would decide to drop below what they have determined is the least amount required to defend their states in order to send equipment to Ukraine.

“I would say that any decision on going below strategic stock levels lies heavily in the hands of our defence forces and our military and should always remain confidential,” Finland’s President Alexander Stubb said this week when asked if he thought other countries should send more weapons to Ukraine.

Poland’s military has insisted it cannot spare Patriots for Ukraine at a time when it is itself waiting for US deliveries after Washington last June approved an order from Warsaw worth $15bn for Patriots and related equipment.

While also in Vilnius on Thursday, Poland’s President Andrzej Duda ruled out supplying Patriot systems. Instead, he said there was still a possibility Warsaw could transfer more of its Soviet-built missiles to Kyiv, without specifying which models and how many.

“In Poland, we’re just starting to build the Patriot anti-missile defence system. This system in Poland is not ready yet, so we have nothing to donate, even if we wanted to,” Duda said.

More at the link.

For want of a nail…

Brussels:

Belgium probing alleged Russian interference in EU election campaign https://t.co/chLYs3KkjT

— Iuliia Mendel (@IuliiaMendel) April 12, 2024

From Reuters:

BRUSSELS, April 12 (Reuters) – Belgian prosecutors are looking into possible Russian interference in the upcoming European Parliament election following findings provided by intelligence services, Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said on Friday.

He said investigators found that Russian groups are meddling in the European election to push forward pro-Russia candidates and thus weaken European support for Ukraine against Russia’s two-year-old invasion.

“The objective is to help elect more pro-Russian candidates to the European Parliament and reinforce a certain pro-Russian narrative in that institution,” De Croo told reporters.

“Weakened European support for Ukraine serves Russia on the battlefield,” he said.

De Croo said the Belgian investigation was launched after Czech authorities found pro-Russian agents active in Brussels seeking to influence, and even pay, European lawmakers to promote a pro-Russian agenda.

It appeared that cash payments were not made in Belgium though interference had occurred there, he said.

More at the link.

Timofiy Mylovanov, the president of the Kyiv School of Economics, posted a long thread on what he is observing on the ground in Ukraine. Here it is from the Thread Reader App:

The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/ 

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than “Kinzhal”

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/Image

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-11/russia-attacks-ukraine-gas-storage-sites-driving-prices-higher

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is ‘dire’ 4/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-missile-strike-targets-cities-across-ukraine-2024-04-11/

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks.  5/Image

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…
Image

https://dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600-asg-jenca-ukraine-11-apr-2024
5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/ 
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Image

Ukraine nuclear plant drone strike prompts warning – BBC NewsThe International Atomic Energy Agency warns Russia and Ukraine not to attack nuclear facilities.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68757082.amp

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…
Image

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/politics/us-aid-ukraine-war.html?searchResultPosition=17
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/ 

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
Image

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/11/christopher-cavoli-russian-military-losses-00151718

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine’s energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine’s military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-11/strikes-on-power-plant-kharkiv-stoke-fears-of-russian-breakthrough?srnd=homepage-europe

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/ 

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine’s toughest test. 14/ 

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country’s allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Image

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-zelenskiy-arrives-lithuania-summit-war-focus-2024-04-11/

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/
 

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X 

🇺🇦Ukraine's 39th Tactical Aviation Brigade demonstrates its Sukhoi Su-27S jets delivering strikes with 🇫🇷French-provided AASM-250 Hammer precision-guided bombs.

If only we could have them (as well as many other weapons) at least a year ago… pic.twitter.com/ShNvTDFFse

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 12, 2024

The Zaporizhzhia front:

HIMARS strike on Russian TOR-M2 air defence system. Zaporizhzhia front.
47.40405, 35.30575https://t.co/9GSi8d9ZSm pic.twitter.com/OW70lBi4SB

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 12, 2024

Destroyed Russian 9A317 of the Buk-M2 air defence system. As said, the strike was carried out by a drone. Somewhere near Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia front. Destroyed presumably between 5th and 10th of April 2024. https://t.co/ZXOz2fcM3l pic.twitter.com/LWfphRWn5X

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 12, 2024

Moscow:

Looks like the HUR got a traitor!

A Toyota Land Cruiser Prado, owned by former SBU officer of Ukraine Vasily Prozorov, was blown up in Moscow.
He moved to Russia several years ago, and before that, since 2014 he had been collaborating with Russian intelligence services.
Reportedly he was hospitalised. pic.twitter.com/heecrSeTUM

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 12, 2024

The car of an ex-employee of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) who was "leaking" information to Russian security services was blown up in Moscow.

According to the Russian media, the owner of the Toyota Land Cruiser Prado blown up in Moscow today was a former employee of the… pic.twitter.com/Nx8nCEU627

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 12, 2024

The car of an ex-employee of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) who was “leaking” information to Russian security services was blown up in Moscow.

According to the Russian media, the owner of the Toyota Land Cruiser Prado blown up in Moscow today was a former employee of the Security Service of Ukraine, Vasyl Prozorov.

He moved to Russia several years ago, and before that, according to his own words, since 2014, he had been cooperating with the Russian security services, passing them information. As Vasyl himself has repeatedly stated in interviews, the decision to cooperate with the special services of the Russian Federation he “made voluntarily for ideological reasons.” Prozorov is listed in the Myrotvorets (‘Peacemaker’) database.

This afternoon, his SUV was blown up in a parking lot on Korovinskoye highway as Prozorov was getting into the car. He survived and was hospitalized with leg injuries.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron texts or tweets today, so here’s some adjacent material.

A video to restore some faith in humanity:

Rescuers in Sumy saved five tiny puppies while fighting with fire in a building. Look at their mom all worried.

Thankfully, the pups are fine. They were given back to their mom.

📹: SESU pic.twitter.com/mjMNR0YB4P

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 12, 2024

War for Ukraine Day 779: The Side that Can’t Shoot Back LosesPost + Comments (33)

A Picture Is Worth a Thousand Words

by WaterGirl|  April 12, 20245:17 pm| 39 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Policy, Open Threads, War in Ukraine

Posted without comment.

Open thread!

A Picture Is Worth a Thousand WordsPost + Comments (39)

War for Ukraine Day 778: Russia Continues To Take Down Ukraine’s Energy Generation Capability

by Adam L Silverman|  April 11, 20248:41 pm| 57 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Quick housekeeping note: Everyone is most welcome. I am reading the comments, though often the morning or afternoon after I do the update as things have been a wee bit busy. I’m not stressing that comments sometimes fall off in terms of numbers, so no reason for you all to either.

As I start drafting tonight’s update, at 7:36 PM EDT, the central third of Ukraine is under air raid alert.

Russia took down a major Ukrainian power generation facility.

Russia fired over 80 missiles and drones at Ukraine overnight, primarily targeting critical civilian infrastructure.

Six of them were ballistic missiles. Ukraine remains the only country in the world facing ballistic strikes. There is currently no other place for "Patriots" to…

— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) April 11, 2024

Russia fired over 80 missiles and drones at Ukraine overnight, primarily targeting critical civilian infrastructure.

Six of them were ballistic missiles. Ukraine remains the only country in the world facing ballistic strikes. There is currently no other place for “Patriots” to be.

I am confident that if those on whom their provision to Ukraine depends spent at least one night in Kharkiv all necessary decisions would have been made quickly. And I would be ready to go together with them.

 

Overnight, russia attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure with 40 Shahed UAVs and 42 missiles of various types.

Ukrainian air defenders shot down 57 aerial targets, including:
• 39 Shahed UAVs
• 16 Kh-101 cruise missiles
• 2 Kh-59 guided air missiles.

Ukraine needs more air… pic.twitter.com/Xmk0YCVlsQ

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 11, 2024

Overnight, russia attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure with 40 Shahed UAVs and 42 missiles of various types.

Ukrainian air defenders shot down 57 aerial targets, including:
• 39 Shahed UAVs
• 16 Kh-101 cruise missiles
• 2 Kh-59 guided air missiles.

Ukraine needs more air defense systems. Only strong international support can help us to protect our people and infrastructure from russian terror.

#RussiaIsATerroristState

 

❗️All 100% of the generation of the state-owned energy company Centrenergo was destroyed.

The Tripilska Thermal Power Plant was the largest supplier of electricity to the #Kyiv, #Cherkasy, and #Zhytomyr regions. pic.twitter.com/4myY0EEutj

— KyivPost (@KyivPost) April 11, 2024

Russia attacked Trypilska power station, the largest in the Kyiv region. This facility has been targeted multiple times before and was undergoing restoration. pic.twitter.com/HjMPOioQON

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 11, 2024

President Zelenskyy attended the Three Seas Summit today. Here is the joint press conference he did with the President of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda and the President of Poland Andrzej Duda.

show full post on front page

Lithuania:

Thank you, Lithuania, for standing firm by our side. We highly appreciate your unwavering support.
🇺🇦🤝🇱🇹 https://t.co/DUpHDgYey7

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 11, 2024

Estonia:

Dear @KajaKallas, you are correct to draw such parallels. This is the most responsible moment in European history this century. If Ukraine's partners act decisively, I am confident that we can defeat Russian terror before it spreads further. Thank you for all of your efforts to…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) April 11, 2024

Dear @KajaKallas, you are correct to draw such parallels. This is the most responsible moment in European history this century. If Ukraine’s partners act decisively, I am confident that we can defeat Russian terror before it spreads further. Thank you for all of your efforts to rally support for Ukraine and all of our Europe.

Poland:

Polish FM: “The EU has spent double what the U.S. has spent on helping Ukraine. We are often suspected, in the U.S., including in Congress, of being free riders. Well, on this one, we have done the right thing. We now need 🇺🇸 to do what the President has promised” pic.twitter.com/DaZuQt1rDG

— Isa Soares (@IsaCNN) April 11, 2024

This is why Poland closed its airspace near the border with Ukraine this morning and scrambled fighter jets.
How about instead, we help Ukraine shoot these missiles down (and prevent Russia from firing them in the first place)? https://t.co/S8Fupq4jHg

— Nate Mook (@natemook) April 11, 2024

The US:

Not enough

— John Sipher (@john_sipher) April 11, 2024

John Sipher is the former Chief of Moscow Station. He is also correct.

GEN Cavoli, Commanding General of US European Command (EUCOM) and Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee. Here’s the link to the transcript of his prepared remarks. Here’s the link to the video of the hearing. I want to highlight this portion of GEN Cavoli’s prepared testimony via Giorgi Revishvilli and the Thread Reader App:

Very insightful points from General Cavoli’s statement today:
– Ukraine cannot sustain this fight alone. The United States, our allies, and partners must continue to provide Ukraine with munitions, weapons, and materiel. 1/14Image
On Russia:
Russia relies on the mass and quantity available to a large country, and despite its military’s evident deficiencies and dysfunctions, continues to pose an existential threat to Ukraine. 2/14
During this conflict Russia’s strategic forces, long range aviation, cyber capabilities, space capabilities, and capabilities in the electromagnetic spectrum have lost no capacity at all. The air force has lost some aircraft, but only about 10% of their fleet. 3/14
The navy has suffered significantly in the Black Sea – but nowhere else and Russian naval activity worldwide is at a significant peak. 4/14
Russia has suffered, losing over 2,000 tanks and 315,000 soldiers wounded or dead. However, Russia is reconstituting that force far faster than our initial estimates suggested. 5/14
The army is actually now larger – by 15 percent – than it was when it invaded Ukraine. Over the past year, Russia increased its front line troop strength from 360,000 to 65 470,000. 6/14
Regardless of the outcome of the war in 94 Ukraine, Russia will be larger, more lethal, and angrier with the West than when it invaded. 7/14
On Russia, PRC, DPRK and Iran:
This [Russia, PRC, DPRK and Iran] block of adversaries is more cohesive and dangerous than any threat the United States has faced in decades. 8/14
The PRC, Iran, and DPRK are sustaining Russia’s economy and enabling it to continue its aggression in Ukraine. This new axis of adversaries will create strategic dilemmas within an increasingly challenging international security environment. 9/14
As of March 2024, the DPRK provided Russia with roughly 6,700 containers that could contain up to three million artillery shells. Iran has provided Russia with drones, artillery, and missiles that have enhanced Russia’s lethality in Ukraine. 10/14
This new axis of adversaries will create strategic dilemmas within an 107 increasingly challenging international security environment. 11/14
On China:
Certainly, PRC is closely watching the conflict in Ukraine – learning military lessons, political lessons, and trying to project those onto China’s own interests. 12/14
Moreover, PRC’s increased support for Russia reveals the depths of the Chinese Communist Party’s commitment to partnerships that challenge our collective security. 13/14
The continued “No-Limits” partnership between PRC and 🇷🇺 positions PRC as a formidable adversary to European interests. This partnership is not just diplomatic; it extends to informational, economic, and military realms, aiding nations that exhibit hostility and aggression. 14/14
Source: armedservices.house.gov/sites/republic…
@threadreaderapp unroll
Additional points:

General Cavoli “They [Ukraine] are now being outshot by the Russian side 5-to-1. That will immediately go to 10-to-1 in a matter of weeks. We are not talking about months. We are not talking hypothetically” /

The situation is extremely serious. the biggest killer on the battlefield is artillery … and should Ukraine run out, they would run out because we stopped supplying.” /
If we do not continue to support Ukraine, Ukraine will run out of artillery shells and will run out of air defense interceptors in fairly short order. /
I can’t predict the future, but I can do simple math. Based on my experience in 37-plus years in the U.S. military, if one side can shoot and the other side can’t shoot back, the side that can’t shoot back loses. /
The U.S. provides the “lion’s share” of 155mm caliber artillery shells to Ukraine and is also the main supplier of the country’s ground-based air defense — “the most critical things on the battlefield. /
Russia’s frequent large-scale missile attacks on Ukraine are expected to become more devastating as Ukraine’s supply of interceptors for air defense dwindle. /
“Those attacks would absolutely cripple the economy and the civil society as well as the military of Ukraine if they were not defended against. Without U.S. provision of interceptors, that will happen.” end/
Don’t forget to subscribe to my Substack – Russia Analyzed – for the latest insights and analysis on Russian foreign and security policy and the war against Ukraine. cutt.ly/pw9h2qju

Japan:

Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio to the U.S. Congress just now: "Japan will continue to stand with Ukraine." pic.twitter.com/BYJxATIUZQ

— Aaron Fritschner (@Fritschner) April 11, 2024

Brussels:

BREAKING — Parliament refuses discharge of the Council budget until European Council decided to support Ukraine with additional Patriot anti-missile systems ! pic.twitter.com/zDvA4xyUct

— Guy Verhofstadt (@guyverhofstadt) April 11, 2024

Michael Weiss bring us another assessment from Karl, the Estonian military analyst via the Thread Reader App:

It’s been a minute, but we have a new thread from “Karl,” the Estonian military analyst, on the war in Ukraine. With @holger_r: 
“Let’s start with the strategic view first. The U.S. has grown even more cautious and inept. Congress is exactly at the same place as the last time we spoke. For a brief moment, 1-2 weeks ago, it looked like they might be closer to a deal but today there is no certainty about it.” 
“The Republicans are still delaying. There’s no clarity about an aid package or a loan package or a combination of them. It’s the same as it was half a year ago. Ukraine has been losing territory on the eastern front unequivocally because of the stalled U.S. aid.” 
“On a positive side, the Czech ammunition initiative has brought considerable results and there is hope that first shipments will arrive on the frontline shortly. This is mainly artillery ammunition. Remarkably, the Czechs have managed to include aid from neutral or even Russia-friendly countries – India, Pakistan, even Serbia.” 
“The Macron initiative can also be regarded as positive from a strategic perspective. Estonia has historically been hesitant about the strategic autonomy concept and so far the French talk hasn’t included much military contribution. But insisting that France and other countries’ troops might be on Ukrainian territory even if only to train has really irritated Russia.” 
“If France really did it, the Baltic countries, probably Poland and Czechia, maybe the Nordic countries and the UK, would join in. This would be a nice coalition to train Ukrainian troops. It is not such a big step, actually, because, as has also been publicly stated, de facto the special ops are already there.” 
“France has always wanted to project a larger geopolitical role in relations to the U.S. than it has actually possessed. Now that the U.S. has left a vacuum, Macron sees an opportunity to take advantage of.” 
“This new France initiative has been weakened by direct condemnation from the U.S. and German leaders though. If we add the U.S.’ views about Ukraine hitting Russia’s oil and military targets, the American position has become embarrassing — especially considering that they can’t contribute anything to help Ukraine themselves.” 
“Does derives more from Biden’s team’s domestic considerations to keep the topic off of election discussions as rising oil prices wouldn’t not play well in elections? Is it a strategic fear or a combination, I can’t judge.” 
“On the frontlines Russian pressure is strong. Since we spoke last time Ukraine has lost Avdiivika, Russia has advanced north-west of Bakhmut, west of Avdiivka, at Pervomaisk and maybe also on the southern frontline. It has been on an operational level, but it is consistent and systematic.” 
“The reason is Ukraine’s lack of ammunition and weaponry to deter Russia’s planes. The Russian glide bombs just completely destroy Ukraine’s defense positions and there is no option but to retreat to new positions.” 
“Again, it is because of no U.S. aid package. The last U.S. package in March was $300 million. It was smaller than the aid that Denmark announced on the same day. Since then, nothing. It really makes itself felt on the frontlines.” 
“There is no reason to fear that Ukraine’s defense might collapse. It is not so tragic. Ukrainian top officers and people close to them are more optimistic than the West is. They say Ukraine might lose some ground in the next months but there is no fear of Russia breaking through the defense.” 
“But Russia will continue to progress primarily on the eastern front. There are also signs of very strong Russian pressure on areas that Ukraine won back last summer by Robotyne and Verbove.” 
“Ukrainian society has finally managed to deal with the change of the commander-in-chief. There were fears that it would divide the society more than it did. Ukrainian people understand that this is not a reason to break up their own society and they need to fight regardless of which personality they like more.” 
“The frequent missile and drone attacks on Kharkiv and Odessa are a concern. These are large, strategically and symbolically important cities. Russia’s goal is to make life as uncomfortable there as possible.” 
“This especially applies for Kharkiv where they haven’t been hitting anything else but residential areas over the last weeks. Kharkiv is also so close to the border that Ukraine’s air defense can’t do much against the S-300 missiles. Occasionally they also pound the city with glide bombs and drones.” 
“Russia also continues to destabilize Moldova. They have repeatedly claimed that Ukraine attacked targets in Transnistria. They are flying the leaders of the Gagauzia region to Moscow. The only aim is destabilization of the country ahead of the presidential elections in autumn. Currently Russia lacks the ability to intervene in Moldova militarily.” 
“Ukraine’s Rada will pass the new mobilization law any day now but the demobilization issues will be handled with separate acts. The troops who have been on the frontline for over 2 years have received some breaks but of course they want more. That said, the same situation is worse for Russian units.” 
“Russian bloggers wrote a few days ago that the new mobilization will be in May. Now they rephrased saying that it definitely will not be in May. The wording is important here. This suggests it can be in June or July.” 
“Considering their huge troop losses especially at Avdiivka they will need to announce a new mobilization wave. They can’t man their units gathering between 15-25k troops a month. I doubt they would be able to deploy more than that a month regardless of what they say themselves. Russia often knowingly ‘manufactures’ its success and tries to sell it to the West.” 
“Especially if Russia plans a large new offense, they will need mobilization. Right now they are not capable of attacking Kharkiv from two directions – from Kupyansk in the east and across the border from Belgorod – simultaneously as has been speculated.” 
“The so-called Russian volunteers operations in Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk showed that Russia doesn’t have any serious units there. Otherwise the ‘volunteers’ wouldn’t have been able to go in and out for several weeks.” 
“Russia’s offense on the Kupyansk direction has also clearly stalled. The activity was much higher there still 1-2 months ago.” 
“Regarding Russia’s next large offensive, the more realistic direction would be to continue from the Donetsk direction. Putin’s first goal was to fully conquer Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Russia has seen some success in 3 directions there: Avdiivika in the center, Bakhmut to the north and to the south in Pervomaisk.” 
“A logical next direction would be towards Chassiv Yar west of Bakhmut. It would open up directions towards Slovyansk and Kramatorsk which are the largest free cities in Donetsk oblast. Kramatorsk is also home to Ukraine’s eastern HQ.” 
“Ukraine’s air defense is weaker and since they don’t have F-16s, Russia can cause a lot of harm with the glide bombs. F-16s would bring at least a bit of relief to it because their operating radius is larger. When Russia can’t bring their bombers closer, their accuracy goes down. Already they have bombed occupied areas and Russia’s own territory.” /END 

DTEK Group Ukraine:

❗️russia launches missile and drone attacks against two DTEK power stations in #Ukraine
 
russia launched #missile and drone #attacks against two DTEK power stations early on Thursday, inflicting further serious damage on Ukraine’s thermal power generation facilities after… pic.twitter.com/1muqLlHvMi

— DTEK Group (@dtek_en) April 11, 2024

❗️russia launches missile and drone attacks against two DTEK power stations in #Ukraine

russia launched #missile and drone #attacks against two DTEK power stations early on Thursday, inflicting further serious damage on Ukraine’s thermal power generation facilities after multiple massive attacks in recent weeks.

There were no casualties among our workforce, however an initial assessment has shown that the assault caused serious damage to power station infrastructure.

DTEK teams are working intensively to repair and restore power as soon as possible.

Over the past three weeks, DTEK has suffered its worst attacks since russia’s full scale invasion in 2022 – on March 22 and then March 29 – destroying around 80% of its available capacity.

DTEK will continue to do everything possible to protect and preserve Ukraine’s civilian energy system from russia’s illegal aggression. Our thermal power plants have been shelled almost 170 times since February 2022 and we are appealing to governments and foreign partners for help sourcing power generation equipment.

#StandWithUkraine

Kyiv:

A message from #Kyiv regional utility CEO: You see it and sense it yourselves… Reduce power consumption between 7 pm-10 pm every day. For the rest of 2024. https://t.co/xZAWSCVUH6

— Roman Waschuk 🌻🍒 (@WaschukCanUA) April 11, 2024

Here’s the machine translation of Sergey Kovalenko’s original tweet:

Evening

Let’s do it. You saw and felt everything yourself. It can be evaluated in different ways. You and I can assess this only because of the presence of light in homes and on production sites.

What can we do now? Save consumption during peak hours. And if there are many of us, it will work. Ago. From 19 to 22 hours. Daily. Please save electricity. Daily. The whole year 2024. Let it become a habit.

Thank you! Everything will be fine

ps: make a repost and drop it in the chat rooms…

@YASN0_ua

Kharkiv:

Early this morning, russian forces struck Kharkiv with ten S-300 missiles. In the afternoon, they attacked the city again during the workday. Just imagine any European city with a population over a million in place of Kharkiv, where more than 5,000 buildings are destroyed.

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 11, 2024

The Kharkiv Oblast authorities have decided to mandate the evacuation of families with children from 47 settlements within the region that regularly face russian shelling. Yet, numerous residents remain in these areas, preferring to stay in their homes despite the risks.

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 11, 2024

Incredible work by the Food Train team and their special guests yesterday! 🚂🍲 https://t.co/VvqMsRDVky

— Nate Mook (@natemook) April 10, 2024

Ukrainian border guards destroyed a russian "Pole-21" electronic warfare system in the Kharkiv region.

📹: @DPSU_ua pic.twitter.com/gLrVFJBFnZ

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 11, 2024

The Zaporizhzhia front:

Russian assault group tried to attack Ukrainian positions on the 'Ural' truck. Zaporizhzhia front:

“ "Ural" and enemy infantry were destroyed on the Orikhiv direction.

Russians tried to assault the positions of the Ukrainian defenders on the URAL, while the truck was moving, a… pic.twitter.com/ygLbRcGj0o

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 11, 2024

 

Russian assault group tried to attack Ukrainian positions on the ‘Ural’ truck. Zaporizhzhia front:

“ “Ural” and enemy infantry were destroyed on the Orikhiv direction.

Russians tried to assault the positions of the Ukrainian defenders on the URAL, while the truck was moving, a mine blew up and the crew began to run away.

Next, the remaining enemy personnel were killed by drone operators with grenade drops, and the enemy’s transport was finally destroyed by the FPV drone strike.”

https://t.me/spartan_ngu/1459

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos, so here’s some adjacent material:

Another visit from our dearest friend @natemook pic.twitter.com/gf67ci9s6R

— Eugene Kibets (@eugenehmg) April 9, 2024

Caturday lunch in Kherson 😻 Denis filled up Hachiko feeders in his city between the air raid sirens. This homeless Ukrainian kitty was very hungry! pic.twitter.com/FxUVf5EnCU

— Nate Mook (@natemook) April 6, 2024

pic.twitter.com/CmFCiDrQEl

— Eugene Kibets (@eugenehmg) April 8, 2024

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 778: Russia Continues To Take Down Ukraine’s Energy Generation CapabilityPost + Comments (57)

  • Go to page 1
  • Go to page 2
  • Go to page 3
  • Interim pages omitted …
  • Go to page 136
  • Go to Next Page »

Primary Sidebar

Recent Comments

  • OzarkHillbilly on Cold, Cruel Grey Dawn Open Thread: #DonSnoreleone (Apr 16, 2024 @ 6:43am)
  • Manyakitty on Cold, Cruel Grey Dawn Open Thread: #DonSnoreleone (Apr 16, 2024 @ 6:39am)
  • Baud on Cold, Cruel Grey Dawn Open Thread: #DonSnoreleone (Apr 16, 2024 @ 6:38am)
  • NotMax on Cold, Cruel Grey Dawn Open Thread: #DonSnoreleone (Apr 16, 2024 @ 6:34am)
  • Manyakitty on Cold, Cruel Grey Dawn Open Thread: #DonSnoreleone (Apr 16, 2024 @ 6:32am)

🎈Keep Balloon Juice Ad Free

Become a Balloon Juice Patreon
Donate with Venmo, Zelle or PayPal

Balloon Juice Posts

View by Topic
View by Author
View by Month & Year
View by Past Author

Balloon Juice Meetups!

All Meetups
Talk of Meetups – Meetup Planning
Proposed BJ meetups list from frosty

Fundraising 2023-24

Wis*Dems Supreme Court + SD-8
Virginia House Races
Four Directions – Montana
Worker Power AZ
Four Directions – Arizona
Four Directions – Nevada

Featuring

Medium Cool
Artists in Our Midst
Authors in Our Midst
Positive Climate News
War in Ukraine
Cole’s “Stories from the Road”
Classified Documents Primer

Calling All Jackals

Site Feedback
Nominate a Rotating Tag
Submit Photos to On the Road
Balloon Juice Mailing List Signup
Balloon Juice Anniversary (All Links)
Balloon Juice Anniversary (All Posts)

Fix Nyms with Apostrophes

Balloon Juice for Ukraine

Donate

Twitter / Spoutible

Balloon Juice (Spoutible)
WaterGirl (Spoutible)
TaMara (Spoutible)
John Cole
DougJ (aka NYT Pitchbot)
Betty Cracker
Tom Levenson
David Anderson
Major Major Major Major
ActualCitizensUnited

Political Action 2024

Postcard Writing Information

Balloon Juice for Four Directions AZ

Donate

Balloon Juice for Four Directions NV

Donate

Site Footer

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

  • Facebook
  • RSS
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
  • Comment Policy
  • Our Authors
  • Blogroll
  • Our Artists
  • Privacy Policy

Copyright © 2024 Dev Balloon Juice · All Rights Reserved · Powered by BizBudding Inc