It’s tough to predict exactly how the impending fall of Roe will affect the midterm elections, but most observers seem to think it at least has a chance to be a gamechanger. In his most recent podcast, Josh Marshall noted that Americans prefer to keep Roe in place by about a 70% to 30% margin.
He said he thinks Chuck Schumer ought to do a headcount to determine how many current Dem senators are on board with amending the filibuster to pass legislation that codifies Roe, and then the president should make this pitch:
If we hold the House and add two* more Democrats to the U.S. Senate, Democrats will pass legislation codifying Roe, and I’ll sign it in the first week of the new term.
Marshall says it would be a mistake to complicate the pitch by tinkering with Roe — basically just pass legislation guaranteeing abortion rights
in the first trimester for the first 24 weeks.
I didn’t hear the whole thing, so I don’t know if they got around to talking about what else could happen with a real majority. Presumably, the candidates would run on whatever works in their districts/states — the pitch to codify Roe would come directly from President Biden.
I don’t know if this would work or not, but it would definitely put an issue that seems to favor Dems at the center of the election, and maybe it would change the DOOM narrative. What do y’all think?
*It might be more than two — Marshall assumed Manchin and Sinema would continue to cling to the filibuster as holy writ, but there might be another one or two Dems who wouldn’t be on board with amending it to codify Roe. Anyhoo, the point is, the headcount would reveal the number.
The Doom narrative is pushed by pencil pushers (key board commandos) of the media who mostly serve their Republican masters directly or their masters serve Republican masters or they themselves lean R.
We don’t know what will happen 5 months from now. This ruling is not just politics as usual. So let’s not echo the doom narrative of those who hate Dems
Rs are evil and they have powerful friends but the only way our doom is guaranteed is if we hand them victory without a fight.
Codifying Roe is a necessary but insufficient step. It won’t change the reality on the ground, since every argument used in the draft opinion would be used to strike the law down. The filibuster is needed to expand the court – that would in the short term be a remedy, and long term impeachment against justices that lied to Congress or participated in an insurrection as a signal to the public that nobody is above the law, and to the demigod Justices that they specifically aren’t.
Remember to assume that at least a few will simply lie about what they’ll do, like Manchin did.
More than the terrible two want to keep the filibuster. The terrible two are just taking the heat for it.
The more ideas, the better. The rowdier the better. Loved to hear about the marches.
Germany got deNazified. I think we should de-Confederate-ize.
Yes! Hell yes!
@WereBear: Reconstruction, Pt. II – This Time It’s Personal.
New Deal democrat
Yes, do it! And don’t be too fussy about whether it is the somewhat more watered down version that supposedly Collins and Murkowski will support, because you’re not going to get past the GOP filibuster anyway.
Put the GOP on the spot.
Tell the voters “Hold the House, plus two Seats in the Senate, everything gets done.”
Nice to me that the conversation has gotten more detailed, as a lot of people who never thought much about abortion, or thought of it in very simplistic terms like “I don’t think they should use it as birth control” (yadayada) — are starting to learn some of the details of not only how frequently and how badly things can go wrong in a pregnancy, but also the fact that women’s basic healthcare is by nature very intimate and involves reproduction. It sure seems to me with all the public conversation that is being held people are likely to learn a lot more of the nuances and maybe if they had a fairly simplistic mindset or never really thought about it they could come to reasonable conclusions like normal people to think about things.
In other words I guess what I am saying is that reality and facts have a liberal bias, So it’s good that more folks are either thinking our finding out more than they knew.
Supposedly we got TFG as a backlash to Obama. Maybe Roe will be the backlash against the GOP authoritarian overage.
Yabbut the red states will ignore it and the SC will rule it unconstitutional.
@Cameron: If you’re a WaPo reader, you may have already seen this interesting article on the rightwing shithooks who are ruining Sarasota. These crass, gross Trump/DeSantis people are never more than one degree separated from white nationalists.
Mike in NC
Right-wing pundit Kathleen Parker thought the silver lining to overturning Roe v. Wade might mean it could be a long time before another Republican lands in the White House. Never works for me…
Two more Democratic senators are the bare minimum. We have elderly senators who could die or have to step down due to health issues.
Brett’s gonna need another beer ..
@eversor: I hear this a lot, and I think it is true when it comes to the filibuster in general. But I think that last year 48 Democratic Senators voted for a filibuster carveout for voting rights legislation and I think those same 48 will back a carveout for the kind of legislation talked about here. Democrats will have to limit defections to just two because the only Republicans even possibly supporting this course are Collins and Murkowski and I wonder about Collins.
That’s good though. IMO, conservatives over reached on schools. You can tell how defensive the GOP activist husband/wife team are, whining about how the local activists are “trying to brand Florida as far Right”.
They want to be far Right but they see political danger in being recognized and labeled as such. Ambitious, striver parents who moved there for the schools are going to get really tired of these people starting battles in the schools. As the teacher said “we can’t get any work done”.
@Mike in NC: I’m in my late 50s and I have learned NEVER to depend on things getting worse as the reason or silver lining for why they might become better in the future. That way of thinking leads one down the Susan Sarandon/Michael Moore path to nowhere.
Worse is always just worse.
You fight every battle. The Orcs are ALWAYS at the door and always will be except when they are inside running the place. And you hope that Obama is right and that the arc of history is long but bends towards justice.
I have no idea what these midterms will portend. But there is no silver lining to repealing Roe. Only a LOT of hard work to put it back in some fashion or another.
The SC is the choke point right now, and we can’t do anything about it as long as the filibuster is in place. We only need 50 votes to change that. The election’s in six months, and there are 14 D seats (and 20 Rs!) up. Let’s get everybody on record now, so we don’t have this constant uncertainty, who is and who isn’t, hanging over every discussion.
That’s reserved for doctors, and other people who work at Planned Parenthood.
It’s not the best policy outcome and activists will be really upset but the best political outcome would be getting Murkowski and Collins and putting the whole rest of the GOP in the far Right basket. That’s bad for them.
But it may not matter. I don’t think Murkowski is a liar but I know Collins is, so it’s theoretical, much like anything regarding Joe Manchin. Not real.
New Deal democrat
@Cervantes: “Yabbut the red states will ignore it and the SC will rule it unconstitutional.”
True. But if Dems hold the House and pick up two Seats in the Senate, we can break the filibuster for Voting Rights, gerrymandering, and (hopefully) expanding the Court (not to mention finally passing their economi agenda). Plus Thomas and Alito are old and not immortal, and might pass this mortal coil before 2025.
@Spanky: I’m reminded of the true story of a director of a mental asylum who performed a lobotomy on a young man.
Who then appeared at his house and killed him when he opened the door.
It’s metaphorical: I’m not advocating violence. But it always struck me as so terrible that the young man knew he had lost something important, and who had done it.
Republicans seem determined to make everyone feel like they don’t have much left to lose.
The woman in red GOP uniform is outraged that people are protesting her
I didn’t know this. I kept hearing this current leak being called “Unprecedented”
I stopped reading Josh Marshall when he refused to alter his editorial policy of calling anti-abortion proponents, “pro-life.”
Maybe that’s changed, but I kind of doubt it.
I do believe this is a gamechanger, you could see it in the visceral reaction by the Republicans. They know this is a disaster in the making for them. It’s a disaster of their own making. If they nominated sensible jurists to the Supreme Court then Kevin McCarthy would be the next Speaker of the House and Matt Gaetz would be on his way to impeaching President Biden.
Like cornered rats they are going to fight hard and dirty, unfortunately for them Loser Trump is going to be picking their candidates. He cares more about himself than he does for the team. Sucks to be them.
OTOH they tried this for voting rights- a vital issue for their base – and I don’t think it moved the needle at all on base perceptions of Democratic commitment to voting rights, which is what it was intended to do since they knew it wasn’t passing.
Messaging, messaging, messaging:
Forced birth and birthing slaves.
That’s what we the GOP wants for women. Those are the simple, easy to remember terms we to hammer them with for the next 6 months.
Also include: Religious extremists, Judicial coup.
@Robin Goodfellow: Frankly, we couldn’t have had a better author for this decision than Alito. His arrogance and contempt for women just drip from it.
Former Alaskan here. Alaska is a bright-red state. There is ZERO chance of Murkowski switching parties. Not going to happen so no point fantasizing about it. She is a mainstream Republican, just not a crazy one. With Alaska’s new electoral system she is right where she needs to be in order to keep winning elections. She isn’t going to change.
@Geminid: As for this issue being a good one for the midterms, I believe it will be. I’ll be in the Virginia 7th CD that stretches from the I-95 corridor south of DC to the Blue Ridge. I think it’s considered “lean D.” My guess is that Republicans have already maxed out pro-life voters, but this issue will be a real motivator for Democratic voters and maybe some Independents too.
As for the Senate, there may be only 6 or 7 seats in play. Here, I think that the radical nature of these new state “pro-life” statutes will hurt Republicans. These laws are being implemented now, and sadly there are going be real horror stories coming out of these states, not just hypotheticals. There is a minority of people who are pro-life in general, but for whom the elimination of exceptions for cases of rape, incest and the endangerment of the mother will be a dealbreaker. I don’t think Republicans can afford to lose those votes this November, not with the increase in turnout Democrats will see because of this issue.
The midterm advice I keep hearing and cringing over, that comes from professional political types, is to campaign on ‘kitchen table issues’. Words cannot express how strongly I disagree with that.
In the first place, the big ‘kitchen table issues’ are out of our or anyone’s control – inflation, gas prices, etc. But the bigger problem is that campaigning on kitchen table issues is telling OUR OWN VOTERS that they are selfish, myopic little drones, uninterested in anything other than themselves.
I’m convinced that one of the reasons for the success of QAnon, despite the lunacy of its narrative, is that it gives its followers a sense of importance, a feeling that they’re taking part in a grand sweeping world-changing epic. Well, heck, we can do that! We don’t even have to lie about anything. What every major issue boils down to these days is that we are on the side of civilization, and they are on the side of barbarism.
We’re for decency. They’re for cruelty. We’re for democracy. They’re for Strong Man dictatorship. We’re for Zelenskyy. They’re for Putin. We’re for the Capitol Police. They’re for the Oath Keepers. We’re for reason. They’re for superstition and wild conspiracy. We’re for science. They’re… for cryinloutloud – they’re for DISEASE!
I don’t think she’ll change parties and didn’t say that. I think she would honestly consider joining a more moderate national law on abortion, where Collins will say she will, but will not ever intend to.
O/T WONDERFUL NEWS! Ukraine announced that all women, children and elderly have been evacuated from the steel plant!
This is a good poll for Democrats, taken after the leak. It gets better after they introduce the question on abortion, but even without that it’s the best I’ve seen in months. Just one though :)
@Ken: “yeah, doxxing is over the line, except when we do it over on the GOP side…..”
If that doesn’t ring of somebody raised in a cult, or a Skinner box, I don’t know what would. Nobody says that in everyday conversation.
@Betty Cracker: Alas, I’m pretty parochial (Bradenton Herald is paper of choice). The new infestation is not surprising. The Morlocks figure DeSantis will protect them, and they may be right. Don’t know how much longer I’ll be living in FL (hell, for that matter, don’t know how much longer I’ll be living period), but I sure hope it isn’t one long episode of Black Mirror. Not sure picking Sarasota is their best move; I’d think they would have more success here in Manatee County.
That’s the problem with the automatons the fed soc raised like hothouse flowers: they sound so strange to normal people.
Alito did this to all of them. His reasoning is such absolute garbage they all have to do this now- pretend there was no resistance to Brown v Board of Ed, pretend Roe is unpopular. They have to defend this Right wing wacko’s delusional recitation of landmark cases and his invented history.
Also, for state directors of health in the early days of the pandemic. Bunch of assholes with AR-15s trampling her and her neighbors’ lawns, threatening the children. The local police chief was interviewed and expressed more concern about protecting their Second Amendment rights than protecting the lives of actual, tax-paying citizens.
Make it +10 Senators. Enough real dem Senators actually representing the majority will of our people legislatively.
@Kay: You don’t find the associate justice’s cites from Malleus Maleficarum to be convincing precedent?
@New Deal democrat:
I don’t think we should assume that the Supreme Court would strike down legislation codifying a right to abortion. There are only two arguments I can think of that they could use, 1) that Congress doesn’t have the power to legislate in this area; or 2) that single celled organisms can quality as people under the 14th Amendment. Given the importance of health care generally in the economy, saying that Congress has no power would be strange, but if they did, it would be useful in ruling out a national ban imposed by Republicans; saying that fetuses are people under the 14th Amendment would be inventing something out of whole cloth–I can’t even imagine what the opinion would look like–which is different than what they are about to do.
@Betsy: Yes, and they are also thinking about how is it that we landed here? Here are some reactions as seen by some Democrats as reported in Medium by Umair Haque, 5/2022
“Dem men’s reactions have been to urge people to vote in November. It makes me wonder whether this leak was a calculated attempt (or a convenient way) for the Dems to court votes. But many women’s responses have been, now that Roe is gone, why should we vote for a party that did nothing to secure its place in law?”
“People hate a traitor more than an enemy, and it is, for this reason, there is going to be an intense backlash against the Dems for, one, letting this happen (and yes they could have done plenty: ended the filibuster, expanded the SCOTUS, codified Roe, passed the effing ERA!), and two, for doing nothing after it happened. Why don’t they organize and fund a sustained protest outside the White House? A strike? ANYTHING?”
“There is a feeling from women that the Dems have had 50 years to codify Roe into law, but have not because they wanted it to remain a bargaining chip. Something they could hang over women’s heads, and say, ‘you better vote for us, or they’ll get rid of it!’ Now that they’ve gotten rid of it, the Dems aren’t even fighting, they’re just handwringing, making excuses for it, and… asking for money. It’s incredible. 70% of Americans are against this. And the Dems are doing nothing.”
“So this is the first time I’ve seen the most diehard Democrats question their party and actually be critical of how they’ve behaved. People who have always defended the Dems are now incredulous, saying WTF? What was my vote for?”
“The Republicans at least care about their campaign of evil. They are evil but we know they’re evil, we know what they want, what they care about, and in that sense they’re a known quantity (as long as you’re not in denial about it.) What are the Dems? What do they care about? It doesn’t seem to be democracy, since they’re not putting up a fight. It doesn’t seem to be women, since they haven’t done ANYTHING in response to this decision. It doesn’t seem to be much of anything, and that’s why they can’t get anyone to care. They cannot simply be Not-Trump, they have to be FOR something, anything. ‘Vote us in in the midterms isn’t exactly meaningful when you’ve plenty of power right now and you’re not doing anything.”
If they didn’t vote to abolish the filibuster for voting rights they won’t do it for abortion. So it’s all a moot point. There will never be 60 votes in the Senate to nationalize abortion rights. They only way that it happens is if Dems build a majority in the Senate that supports abolishing the filibuster. And then Murkowski is irrelevant anyway.
Point being, Murkowski and Collins aren’t the obstacle. The lack of 51 Democratic votes in favor of abolishing the filibuster is the obstacle. That means getting rid of Sinema and flipping 2 more Senate seats as Manchin is a lost cause
Because even if you got Murkowski to vote for a national abortion law it makes no difference unless she also agrees to abolish the filibuster. And as a GOPer she won’t do that. So 52 votes in favor is still a defeat. The only way this gets done is by abolishing the filibuster and the only way to do that is defeat Sinema and get two more Dem Senators.
@schrodingers_cat: here’s what we are doing:
FIGHT TO PROTECT MODERN AMERICA/DEMOCRACY
Social media campaigns, email, billboards, organized groups. Instagram, YouTube, Twitter, Flyer Bombs, Swag, Postcards, support groups for Blue Senators and sub groups helping women’s health. Target modern companies with boycotts, press investor relations, organize walk outs, Call Campaigns against CVS, Walgreens, Amazon, Walmart etc, distribute documents that bring realism of anti-choice consequence to churches. Call current DEM leadership and demand single-minded messaging and fight. Harass Supreme Court to point of shut down…
TURN THE LANGUAGE AROUND:
1 MIllion Dead Americans from GOP Pandemic mishandling = Pro-life My Ass… INSERT POWERFUL IMAGES / Design of multiple pandemic deaths…
GOP = PARTY OF GREED, PARTY OF OPPRESSION, PARTY OF DEATH – Image of polluting utilities, their own Charlottesville parade, wingnut gun slaughter like Parkland – VOTE BLUE – Your life depends on it.
For those who thought their wealth would protect them, or they could ignore Hitler’s delusions, or the oppression of millions, it didn’t go well. INSERT BW IMAGE OF DRESDEN POST FIREBOMBING
THE GOP WANTS TO GO BACK TO THE ‘50s – INSERT Image of bucktoothed, gunny sack wearing hick from pre civil war days, or slave in bondage…THE 1850s. VOTE DEMOCRATIC FOR A BRIGHTER TOMORROW
DEMOCRACY IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN CHEAP GAS – VOTE DEMOCRATIC TO SAVE THE USA + UKRAINE. Insert Image of muddy / fighting UKRAINIAN Soldier
WHY WERE THESE REPUBLICAN SENATORS IN RUSSIA ON JULY 4th? TRAITORS DON’T DESERVE TO SERVE. INSERT IMAGE OF THE TRAITOROUS 8 painted in Russian red -: Richard Shelby, Ron Johnson, John Neely Kennedy, Steve Daines, John Hoeven, Jerry Moran, John Thune,
PEOPLE WHO DID THIS TO OUR GOVERNMENT SHOULDN’T BE ALLOWED TO RUN IT… Insert Heavy handed images of the PSYCHOS from January 6th…
THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY PROTECTS YOUR RIGHTS, THE REPUBLICANS WANT TO DESTROY THEM. SHOW CIVIL RIGHTS IMAGERY ETC
WHY DO THESE LAWYERS IN ROBES THINK THEY KNOW MORE THAN YOUR DOCTOR? Keep the GOP out of our private medical decisions.
Republican Platform; Keep em dumb, keep em poor and keep em sick. INSERT IMAGE OF DOWNTRODDEN PPL (perhaps AGEE photos) Vote Blue to move America forward.
SOMEBODY SOMEWHERE IS HAVING FUN IN AMERICA… ANd THE REPUBLICANS ARE MAD ABOUT IT…InSERT WHOLESOME COUPLES of All types having fun, being romantic etc, then the stony faced McConnell etc… and raging January 6th nutsos…
@Kent: No one is fantasizing about Murkowski switching parties. She did not have to switch parties when she voted to convict Trump last year, she just did it.
Murkowski has support in her state that reaches well beyond Republican voters. She won on the Republican line in 2016, but in 2010 she lost their primary and still went on to beat the Republican and Democratic candidates as a write-in. I understand that she did this with strong support from Alaska’s unions and Native Corporation. With Alaska’s new electoral system, I think Murkowski will win reelection this year no matter how she votes on this matter.
@JoyceH: “Kitchen table issues” are often defined simply as more material issues like jobs, education and health care, but thas doesn’t neccesarily exclude striking down Roe from the category. I think taking away women’s right to choose will be a big kitchen table issue, that is, an issue normal people talk about around their kitchen tables and not just on political blogs.
Our job would be easier if jars of mayonnaise didn’t have longer memories, a greater capacity to learn and better BS detectors than the majority of US voters.
Gin & Tonic
@Spanky: eh this is war. No peace where these guys live
I am all for the Senate bringing the codification of Roe up to a vote next week, even if it goes down. Force people to go on the record as to exactly where they stand on this. Not just so- called “moderates” like Collins and Murkowski, but the shitstains Manchin and Sinema as well.
It is pretty simple really. White women have to decide whether their white privilege is worth losing autonomy over their reproductive decisions
If the Rs lose white women they are toast. But will a majority of them vote D in 2022? I have no idea.
And the good news for us is that the GOP doesn’t even have the self-control to sit back quietly and act like they’re sensible people for even the few weeks or months until Roe is actually overturned. They’re already frothing at the month to pass the most draconian laws their fevered brains can imagine, that any harm to a fertilized egg is outright murder and they’re going to criminally charge women and doctors and everyone else they can think of. If they’re given the power, nobody can complain they weren’t warned. These guys are the leopards, and they’re HUNGRY.
Mike in NC
We’re reasonably certain that we will never have to set foot in Florida again since our friends in Tampa are about to relocate to western NC. The future down there reeks of loons like DeSantis and Gaetz. Jeb Bush would be denounced as a Marxist today.
Even a carveout probably won’t work. It’s easy to vote when you know it will fail. But they will balk if it will pass because of their fear the GOP will do the same, even though the GOP will do it the instant they can regardless.
This is not something with a political solution. It’s going to take protesting churches, socially and culturally shaming christians/conservatives/republicans, suing states on establishment grounds, pressuring business to pay for abortions/take on states that pass these laws/wage financial warfare and economically break states that pass these laws. People and business will have to stop all donations to any church charity and break them.
It’s going to take being vicious and causing extreme pain and suffering to the groups that did it until they are all as toxic as the KKK.
And if you think that’s heavy handed and a broad brush. Well there were good Southerners in the Civil War and not everyone in South Africa was a monster. But we brought the pain to all of them because that is the only way this works. And this time no reconstruction or allowing respectability back for conservatism/Republicanism/Christianity.
@JoyceH: I listen to radio news a lot, and earlier this year I was struck by CBS News reporting on a new Tennessee abortion law. The second or third sentence of the report was about a provision that allowed a rapist’s family members rights over his child. As they do, the news reader stated this in neutral tones, but I said, “Wow!” and I bet I wasn’t the only one.
His pitch does not go far enough. First trimester is less than what exists now. They should protect all previability abortion. We are not going to let women die to save fetuses that cannot be saved.
I have no idea, either.
I’m a GenX white woman. My high school acquaintances on FB (mostly white women) are shocked, angry and/or grieving about Roe.
However, I saw one such acquaintance fruitlessly arguing with her white aunt on FB. The aunt told her niece that everyone should keep their opinions to themselves. The niece pleaded for her daughter’s right to safe medicine. The aunt did not care and kept telling her niece to keep quiet.
I expect that aunt to vote. ? I hope my angry peers vote, too.
@eversor: Well, I was just speaking to the question of whether or not there were Democrats who would hide behind Manchin and Sinema on this question.
But I don’t agree with we can only succeed if we inflict pain on these groups who support a ban on abortion. They are a minority. They can only prevail in deep red states.
I want to inflict pain on their politicians, the ones who hold purple and light-red Senate seats and Congressional Districts. If we beat them we can marginalize the Republican party for a generation. Their followers can wallow in their defeat and disappointment and that’s punishment enough for me.
James E Powell
I’m betting they will hang onto white privilege up till the very moment that they or one of theirs has a life-changing encounter with the world they created. For now, it’s very easy to think of abortion rights as something other people – and mostly people they don’t like – need.
She can vote for national abortion rights all she wants and it won’t make any difference. The only thing that will make a difference is getting rid of the filibuster and she doesn’t support that. Otherwise it is just hot air. The only way to nationalize abortion rights is to get at least 2 more Dem Senators, not worry about how Murkowski is going to vote or not vote. Because while she might personally support abortion rights, she also supports the right of Ted Cruz to filibuster and prevent it from passing. And so she is a dead end.
If folks have good leads on postcard campaigns, can we list them in an accessible way? (Hello Front Pagers) For example I live in a very safe state, and don’t have much money, but I can do postcards
B. Cracker — did you really mean to say this?
“just pass legislation guaranteeing abortion rights in the first trimester.”
Because that is giving away a huge part of the current right — half of it in fact, from 24 weeks (viability) to 12 (first trimester). That seems like a really bad move. But you may have not meant what was written?
@James E Powell: Something like 1 in 4 American women have had an abortion by age 45. I don’t know if the radical SCOTUS clerics’ fatwa against the procedure will change their votes, but the personal experience thing is covered.
@WereBear: Germany was denazified on paper. You’d be surprised at how many high-ranking Nazis were quietly allowed to resume positions in politics, the military, journalism, academia, etc. in the 50’s and 60’s. “Well, they’ve learned their lesson,” was a common refrain. Also: “the Communists are worse.”
@Immanentize: You’re right — I should have looked it up instead of going from memory, and I will fix that. Thanks for bringing it to my attention!
@Betty Cracker: As I imagined!
You can delete my Q if you like.
@germy: Yeah, babies should be regarded as just another consumer product – gotta have a supply that meets the demand.
But since we’re still stuck in the era of producing one at a time over a 9-month period, rather than being able to mass-produce them by the millions, it’s time to put all women on the production line, whether they like it or not.
That’s what they’re telling us.
@Immanentize: I liked how Warren Burger handled the Roe decision. He said to his fellow Minnesotan, Justice Blackmun, “Harry, you’ve represented the docs down at the Mayo clinic. Why don’t you go talk to them so as to inform a medically sound and legally clear formula for tbe majority opinion” (my words of course). Blackmun did, and no matter what the trifling critics say, that was one of the most well reasoned Supreme Court decisions ever.
James E Powell
I get that this is huge, I do. But everything about Trump was almost specifically designed to cause the scales to fall from the eyes of white voters and after four years of it, they still wanted more.
@Immanentize: No need — sincere thanks for pointing out the error! ?
In answer to Betty C’s question, I’ve always strongly believed in being clear to people about just what the stakes are in a given election.
The stakes in this one are huge. This is about the very survival of government of the people, by the people, and for the people, the survival of democracy itself.
This is what happens when a hostile minority gains control of the machinery of government: they take their beliefs and shove them down everyone else’s throat. This Supreme Court decision should be presented as both huge on its own terms, but also the first of many such rights to be overturned unless we wrest control of our nation back from a party that hates blacks, women, gay and trans people, and of course libs in general, and will fight to control this country no matter how much they’re outnumbered.
So I believe we should make a very clear statement of what we’ll do if we gain effective control of the process again, and exactly what ‘effective control’ is: retaining the House, and gaining X Senate seats for whatever X actually works.
But we should also make it clear that this is part of a much larger battle that everything from voting rights to climate change depends on. This really is for all the marbles, and we shouldn’t be afraid to say so.
Nobody should be able to come back to us in 2023 or 2025 and say, “why didn’t you tell us what was riding on this election?”
@Starfish: That was my error, now corrected.
@eversor: What are they getting in exchange though?
I mean, Baron Blacklung and Senator Party Wig do not seem the kind to just take heat for nothing in return.
@Cameron: It better be, otherwise it ain’t gonna work.
Turtle weighs in.
@Nutmeg again: https://postcardstovoters.org. I’ve written several campaigns for them. They often do smaller races such as state senate and judges
@James E Powell: I know, and I’ll never understand it, even though I have relatives I’ve known all my life among the idiots. It’s very cult-like.
I think that’s a large part of it.
I suspect an even larger part is that these are upscale professionals living upscale lives in upscale neighborhoods in upscale LIBERAL cities.
They don’t care if abortion is outlawed in Texas. They live in New York City. They have liberal government to protect them. Just like they treated Trump. Who cares if he gets elected? What’s the worst that’ll happen – to us?
All that suffering out there among the cheap seats is just a nice, profitable, palate-cleansing sorbet to coo over in between their dreary orbits of the cocktail/book-pimping circuit.
I would pay to watch them learn just how wrong they are – if only the lesson wasn’t going to mangle so many people getting there…
@trollhattan: He’s a cagey old senatortoise. Didn’t give them much of a sound bite, did he? No gushing about the baybeeeeees.
@Subsole: And upscale women in TX will fly to NM for a long “spa” weekend, poor women be damned.
Getting rid of the filibuster makes all kinds of things possible. Like quickly getting 2 more Democratic senators via DC Statehood. Which could then break the 40+ year logjam on all kinds of things (voting, Roe, Hyde Amendment, labor rules, fair taxes, fair pay, ERA, and on and on).
Gradually, and then Suddenly.
But we’ve got to keep working and pushing to make it happen.
@Betsy: Yep. The words “Ectopic Pregancy” are about to get a LOT more attention…and who is going to check the wimminfolks every month to see if they’re pregnit? Is your job going to issue a mandatory monthly pregnancy test? Are there going to be Federal(ist) Birth Marshalls?
It’s like Kay always says: how is this even supposed to work? There’s no thought behind all this. It’s pure, preening, empty-headed, self-righteous emotionalism. Just the incurable vanity of nosy busybodies who want to hurt other people so they can impress themselves with themselves.
“Okay, Auntie Trumpie, you first, starting with that stupid opinion.”
@Betty Cracker: Oh joy. Yertle spouted some cheap pablum that is just cagey enough to not be used against him.
And of course, we took in a bunch of their scientists: “gather ’round while I sing you of Wernher von Braun…”
Thought it dripped with a coating of “Well, you know how they are.”
@germy: Nina Totenberg (IIRC) said that there have been leaks of various things in the past (including decisions), but this is (supposedly) the first time a full draft opinion has been released before the decision.
The bloviating about the leak is still a manufactured distraction. It makes sense to me that it was someone on the right because (just like the “shadow docket” stuff for Texas SB8) they are trying to make sure the opposition burns itself out by the time the “old news” of the actual final decision is released. And they want it to be “old news” by the time of the election so that Democrats don’t gain more power as a result.
I think they have failed in their plans, but we won’t know that they have failed unless we do the work.
@trollhattan: Didn’t Adam say something about that a few weeks ago?? That part of what propelled Putin into Ukraine was his fear that white people (whatever the fuck that is) were getting “bred-out”, and he needed to forcibly acquire more to “adjust” his demographics??
I may be misrembering the source but I distinctly remember that bit of absolute Chan-board batshit foaming at the eyeballs crazypantsery.
I write for this group, and one of the reasons I chose them is that their support goes to pro-choice Democratic candidates. Another reason is that they use positive (non-fear-mongering) messages.
They’re also in partnership with the FL Democratic Party to sign up Democratic voters for FL Vote By Mail, which correlates with greater voting frequency.
Their website has a detailed FAQ page.
Minimum number to participate is 4 postcards, to be written & mailed within 3 days. And they won’t nag, if one batch of 4 is all you do. :) Meanwhile, that one batch might inspire 4 voters….
Hell, they’re already cheering the return of Segregation.
Because that’s what’s next on the plate.
@JoyceH: This. Every word. Thank you.
@eversor: Minor quibble – wasn’t the problem with Reconstruction that we stopped doing it?
Why no reconstruction on this?? We’re gonna need it, no?
@Subsole: my dear husband is with me today because his very catholic mother had an abortion in 1960 due to an ectopic pregnancy. No abortion, no life (or child) after that.
Mike in Pasadena
@New Deal democrat: I thought I read that some federal legislation includes a prohibition oon the Supreme Court overruling the statute. I don’t know if there are limits to this technique but TFG taught us norms are to be disregarded.
@trollhattan: I note the chinless little whorehouse mop bucket-that-walks-like-a-man didn’t actually say where they stand…
These people know they are loathsome.
@Cameron: Hahaha, only on BJ
@eclare: Yes. Though it bears remembering that rich women go to PP, too.
I wasn’t rich, but I went to the rich-kids’ school (the same one commenter Kent taught at, funnily enough). I can tell you for a hard fact that “Rich family” does most emphatically NOT equal “accepting and supportive family”…
I promise, there will be little rich girls who cannot bear the anger – or just disappointment – of their families. They will try to ‘fix the problem’ themselves, and die.
@Butter Emails!: Amen.
@Gin & Tonic: Good news.
What always twisted my noodle was so did the Communists. After everything the Nazis did to Russia, the Russians still took their scientists in…because nations have neither friends nor enemies. Only interests.
@eclare: In a medical emergency when one is bleeding to death due to a miscarriage wealth is not going to matter much.
This decision if it goes forward puts women’s health in a jeopardy. There are many wanted pregnancies that go wrong.
James E Powell
I think you’re right about this. I wish otherwise, but IGMFY is. a core tenet of American ideology.
@Yutsano: Hapless Virginia Governor Youngkin was similarly cagey in his response to Alito’s draft opinion. He wanted to wait and see what the decision actually was. Maybe then the General Assembly would come up with a response. You’d have thought that Youngkin was just a spectator!
When he ran for Governor last year Youngkin did his best to keep the issue of a women’s freedom of choice in the background. He could still rally his base around the bogus menace of Critical Race Theory. Youngkin knows that abortion is a losing issue for Republicans in purple Virginia.
I’ll recommend this book again if you want a chilling picture of where all this is heading:
@zhena gogolia: Thanks. Actually this did remind me of Romania.
You almost have to admire how completely full of shit anti -abortion people are. In a week they’ve gone from “leave it up to the states” to “actually, we’re working on a federal ban”. They have just lied to the public at every stage of this.
Well, that fear wasn’t based on nothing. The population of Russia was decreasing BEFORE the pandemic. The birth rate went off a cliff in the ’90s when the Soviet Union collapsed, and those ’90s babies are now the child-bearing cohort, the smallest such group in utter ages, and the women aren’t ‘doing their duty’ to have enough babies (2 per woman, minimum) to at least replace the current generation. Apparently thousands of Ukrainian babies have been shipped east into Russia to be available for immediate adoption. Though what makes Vlad think that women unwilling to bear and raise their own children will be willing to raise someone else’s is a mystery. The solution to a falling birth rate is to give the workers a standard of living that makes having a family tolerable, but try telling him that.
I remember reports about all the neglected babies in institutions. ?
Guarantee the RNC want this guy to shut the hell up, at least until mid-November.
For the record, he’s seeking the nomination to run against Mark Kelly this fall.
@Geminid: “Yeah, this document could be the dissent for all we know.”
@trollhattan: If I’m not mistaken, Blake Masters is bankrolled by Peter Thiel, and was on Thiel’s payroll until recently.
Sounds like a ’60s teevee detective, “Blake Masters: Private Eye!”
Recommend casting Paul Lynde in the titular role.
West of the Rockies
That greasy shitbird Clarence Thomas said Americans need to stop pissing over rulings they don’t like.
Isn’t that what wingnuts have been doing for 49 years over Roe? I wouldn’t cry if Thomas has a massive coronary tonight.
James E Powell
Last I saw, he was a distant third. Brnovich, who claims the election was rigged, is in the lead. Jim Lamon, whose ad featured him in a gunfight with Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, and Mark Kelly, is running second.
@trollhattan: “Blake Masters, Condom Cop.”
@West of the Rockies:
They used to window-dress this by directing, “If you want it so bad, get congress to pass a law.” and now they’ve shortened it to “Just shut the fuck up, you’re not on the Supreme Court.”
Can recall a time when the Republican talking point was “no legislating from the bench.”
@James E Powell: Wow.
They’re not sending their best.
She has absolutely no basis to make that promise. She has no control of whether Louisiana or Ohio or Michigan criminalize abortion and prosecute women and no idea at all whether that would happen. What we know now, a year later, is that it will happen.
Deliberately misled the public – made assurances she had no business making because she has no power to deliver on any of them.
They didn’t think any of this through. They have so little regard for women none of them even contemplated what far Right politicians would do on a state and local level. They didn’t consider the intersection with abortion bans and miscarriages, they didn’t consider rape or what would happen to girls, they didn’t consider contraception, they didn’t consider IVF. Women were so far down on their list of priorities they are just now finding out what will happen to them.
@James E Powell: I don’t think Trump has yet endorsed anyone in the Arizona Senate primary. Blake Masters’ backer Peter Thiel may persuade Trump to work the MAGA magic that propelled Vance to victory in Ohio. It’s a fractured race to the bottom, and Trump would help Masters outrun his opponents.
A Panther alum!
Yes, most certainly in the Bible Belt there will be a LOT of middle class and rich girls who will be afraid to talk to their parents and find unsafe alternative options.
@martha: I almost lost a friend to one.
The fact these odious little egotists are doing this all in the name of Jesus infuriates me. And I’m not even religious. I just cannot abide the raw, idiot hypocrisy…
@JoyceH: Or do what we used to do, and try to build a nation that people want to immigrate to.
I know it was mostly self-serving half-truth propaganda horseshit, but when I was growing up in Ronald Reagan’s Incorporated States of America, we used to hear it a lot:
“America is a place people die trying to get into. Russia is a place people die trying to get out of.”
@trollhattan: Maybe it’s me, but the word “domestic” also seems to have a lot of baggage. Especially since, IIRC, Barrett’s own adopted children are from Latin America?
Seriously. Can we drone strike this fucking Thiel guy? It seems an awful lot of out current misery traces back to him.
I mean, we’ve gitmoed people for less…
@Kay: As always, if Susan Collins would not be the deciding vote on a national bill legalizing abortion, she’d vote yes. If it comes down to her, she’ll vote no. She’ll always be there if you don’t need her.
@Betty Cracker: Thank you for fixing it!
@Subsole: Sorry, I think we’ll just have to beat Thiel’s minions at the polls, and make sure Thiel doesn’t steal the elections that he can’t win outright.
@Subsole: Texas is not the middle of nowhere. Texas has cities. There are businesses with headquarters there. Now, they have to consider which, if any, of their employees want to be in Texas. Are they going to have to provide stipends for people to leave Texas for health care?
Maybe, companies might not want to be headquartered there if they are looking at improving diversity and equity.
I did not suddenly have feelings on the day of the “leak” because the people in this area of law and journalism have pointed out that Roe has been dead for months because these states felt empowered to pass crazier and crazier things without waiting for any of the opinions to come back on the Texas case or this one.
When you treat it as already dead, then you donate to your abortion funds and see what you can do to secure a good supply of misoprostol and information for people in the states that are the strictest about where the closest services will be available to them.
Yeah…sigh. I know.
@Subsole: As @Ragnarok Lobster says:
West of the Rockies
I like the cut of your jib…
The draconian restrictions the Florida GOP and gov passed/signed goes into effect in July. Banned after 15 weeks, no exceptions for rape, incest or human trafficking. In 2021, about 75K abortions were performed in the state.
@Starfish: Oh I know. We have DFW, Houston, San Antonio, El Paso, Austin…
Thing is, the state is run by Republicans. So it is already pretty much at war with the cities. (Meaning it is at war with most of its tax payers…) It doesn’t show up on the national level because they’ve gerrymandered us to hell so it’s a hard lift just standing still, but TX is actually a lot more purple than red.
They will likely try to offset your very good and accurate points by doing the only thing they know how to do: make us too cheap for bisiness to ignore.
I expect quality of life in this state to slump even further as they slash what little regs we have and ratchet our taxes up even higher to offset the giveaways to their cronies…
@West of the Rockies:
It really is nuts. Some of this is almost shades of the 1930’s Business Coup Plot…
@Betty Cracker: DeSantis is all in. We’ll see in November whether or not he has a busted flush.
@Betty Cracker: Ms. Cracker, I don’t know this place, you do – do you think a general strike might go anywhere, or would DeSantis just have the National Guard shoot the strikers? Also, I’ve read that Florida voters actually approved a constitutional measure about a hundred years ago that ceded a lot of state power to municipal governments. Is that true? Is so, maybe there are at least a few guerilla politics possibilities.
@Subsole: I have some friends who lived in or near Austin for a while, and they were involved in local political stuff. It was hard to work around the Texas gerrymanders. I am so sorry, and I thank you for putting up the good fight.
@Subsole: therein lies the rub. In the US, Life has gotten hugely better for the top 10 percent- the rest of the citizens… mm not so much and socio-economic mobility has been frozen- we are much more caste-determined than in years prior
Isn’t today your birthday?
@Ksmiami: The share of people in the middle class has been falling since the early 1970s. No one has made much effort at real or lasting change to improve that situation.
@Steeplejack: Vero e vero. How did I reveal that? Shit, I try to keep my personal ID a bit under wraps.
Y0u mentioned it last year and it went into the Stasi files. Happy birthday! ?????
@Steeplejack: Thank you. I guess the mind starts to wander….as the poet wrote: “I grow old/I grow old/I shall put my mobile phone on hold,” or some shit like that.
May 8, 2021: “[Matt Gaetz] and I both had our birthdays yesterday: he celebrated by stoking the wingnut fire with MTG up in The Villages, I was home alone turning 70. But I think I’m happier than he is.”
I’m sure that’s still the case!
@Steeplejack: The happiness may be relative, but I still think (hope) that I’m less likely to spend the next part of my life’s journey in government confinement than he is.
Celebrating your bday doing anything with MTG goes down as “Worst birthday, ever” candidate.
Gaetz probably looked for a middle school gymnastics competition to brighten up his day at.
@West of the Rockies:
Associate Justice Uncle Thomas can fuck off to his cabin with that noise…and take Sister Serena-Ginni Dawn with him.
@Kay: I think that’s because, as twisted as it sounds, this is less about Roe and more about Brown v Board and Loving v Virginia.
Women are just collateral damage in the ongoing campaign to bring back segregation. That’s all it was ever actually about. Living in a world where they never have to look at an Outgroup that they cannot make miserable on a whim.
Hence, the absolute indifference and sloppiness. Of course they never thought it through. This isn’t policy, it’s just breaking civilization to fill their gnawing, irrational, emotionally-infantile need to never EVER be confronted, challenged, inconvenienced, or burdened by the unbearable weight of an inner life.
They may not be the Hollow Men, but it damn sure ain’t from lack of desire. Or effort.
Can you imagine the people who want to talk with their indoor voices when Republican candidates backed by billionaires are writing things like this on their website?
And would the state come after them for being criminal accessories to abortion if they did?
@Matt McIrvin: Would it be good brand advertisement for Lululemon to go up against the US government like that? It might be.
Oh, John Cole has been unbanned from Twitter. HI, JOHN.
@Cameron: Happy Birthday!
If my math is correct, you are 71 years old and that’s a prime number! If anyone asks your age, you can just say that you are in your prime.
I think hatred for women animates a lot of it. These discussions they’re having in state legislatures over whether they should mandate “reimplanting” ectopic pregnancies. They want women in these humiliating, helpless situations, where some idiot state representative mandates she go through this unscientific and medically dangerous “procedure” because he thinks the ectopic pregnancy is a “person”. They want to force women to do these things. They’re looking forward to it. The harder for her the better. They take so much relish in describing the “sacrifice” of the rape victim being forced to carry to term and co parent with the rapist in the Ohio legislature. The lawmaker who introduced the bill’s face was all lit up in kind of religious rapture when she described how woman would learn that this was for their own good. They want them to suffer.
@Cameron: No idea. The statehouse finds a way to undermine any ballot initiative it doesn’t like, but maybe everything is worth trying at this point. ?♀️
Question: what about the outside chance Roe is “merely” gutted but not repealed outright?
@Geminid: Him and Miss Jean Brodie.
Happy birthday, Cameron!
James E Powell
I was not aware that Thiel had a horse in that race. His money plus Trump’s influence, who knows?
@Kay: That Ohio pol is…beyond my command of the language to articulate. Such pious frauds – always wanting to play the martyr while martyring everyone else. They’d nail Jesus to the cross and expect to be saved for doing Him the favor…
I don’t doubt that a LOT of this is tied up in misogyny. Hope it did not come across otherwise.
I have read that the segregationist wing used abortion as a sort of Trojan Horse to get hardline KKK judges elected. It seemed logical enough. I mean, wasn’t abortion kind of a non-issue among Evangelicals AND Catholics up until the early 70s? Then, from out of the blue…
Regardless, misogyny and racism are not mutually exclusive of each other. (Or, alas, anything else – save decency.) I suppose today’s Republicans are differentiated not by which Outgroup they want to enslave, but which one they want to enslave first.
@Mike in Pasadena:
I think this has to do with the second paragraph of Article III, Section 2:
It depends on how one reads this. It could be construed as an either-or, where SCOTUS has either original or appellate jurisdiction, and Congress can decide that some matters call for original rather than appellate jurisdiction. Or it can be construed that Congress can deny jurisdiction to SCOTUS entirely if it wishes.
The prohibition on SCOTUS overruling a law would depend on the latter reading. IANAL, but that reading has never made much sense to me.
@Betty Cracker: I heard about this alleged municipal power through an organization that dubs itself “Local Voices United,” and claims to be a Florida bi-partisan group, which is always a red flag for me.
I trust you remember John Becker. Apparently a man ahead of his time. /
Ah, Jean Schmitt. She called it an opportunity for a woman to look into adoption.
True that it is not everyday conversation. It is used in this technical document:
Adoption Experiences of Women and Men and Demand for Children to Adopt by Women 18–44 Years of Age in the United States, 2002 (August, 2008, U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics)
(Aliito may have cited it in the draft opinion, but I didn’t read it, just searched on that phrase.)
A Good Woman
CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP
@tamaturgo: I think that’s horseshit.
It’s not like the Dems are some group apart from women who support abortion rights or men who support abortion rights.
When people say the Dems should’ve done this the Dems should’ve done that, I’m sorry — the Dems are just, us.
I mean the Dems ARE the people who did those things. The core of the Democratic Party is powered by black women OK. So if you blame Dems for “not doing some thing” …
it’s not like there’s some army that stands apart from pro-choice voters called “the Dems”.