The fast-changing coronavirus has kicked off summer in the U.S. with lots of infections but relatively few deaths. Though it's unclear where COVID-19 may head next, one expert says, “It feels cautiously good right now.” https://t.co/S97yYkrZne
— The Associated Press (@AP) July 2, 2022
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.@AP interviews in 11 countries suggest the hoped-for pandemic recovery is less like a bounce and more like a bumpy path out of a deep, dark cave. By @APLaurieKellman. https://t.co/IoCw248za9
— The Associated Press (@AP) July 1, 2022
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Doing the *opposite* of America…
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Impact on optimizing boosters, timing, and next-generation of Covid vaccines
"Patterns of anti-spike immunity in different people and populations have become heterogeneous, complex and unpredictable"
by @clivecookson @JamieSmythF @ian_bott_artist pic.twitter.com/z4dT40Fwjy— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) July 3, 2022
What else has changed? Mandates are gone – likely forever in most of the U.S. And most people have ditched their masks & are unlikely to put them back on, no matter how large the surge.
So it’s up to each of us to determine our own risk tolerance, and then own behavior. (7/25)— Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) July 4, 2022
From a long, chirpily depressing thread…
…Many ask: “Shouldn’t I wait on boost #2 until fall, when a new bivalent (combo of original & Omicron-specific boost) is available? For those over 50, I’d say no – there’s too much Covid around and evidence of benefit from boost #2 is persuasive.
Pfizer/Moderna are now…(17/25)
…developing a booster targeting BA.4/5 (the one they’ve built vs the original Omicron will have limited utility against BA.5). If the new booster is highly effective (not guaranteed), I doubt that getting a 2nd boost now will block you from getting bivalent boost in fall.(18/25)…So I still avoid indoor dining & will continue to wear an N95 in crowded indoor spaces until cases come way down.
(If you’re in the “I already had Covid so I’m not worried” camp, realize there’s no evidence that Long Covid risk from a 2nd or 3rd case is
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“Don’t worry, it’s not covid!”:
… Over the past two-plus years, the public has undergone a crash course in preventing the transmission of respiratory viruses. We have learned the importance of testing and masking and distancing and isolating and ventilating. These lessons, some better received than others, apply just as well to more familiar pathogens such as influenza and common-cold coronaviruses as to the novel one that has reshaped our lives. We understand better than ever how to be a good sick person. Now we’ll see whether anyone puts that knowledge to use.
The first and most important rule of feeling sick is to stay home. This, says Ryan Langlois, an immunologist at the University of Minnesota, is at once “the easiest and the most difficult” directive. Easy because it’s so simple: Stay in your house! Do not leave! No technical expertise required. Difficult because actually following it entails major disruptions of daily life. For white-collar workers, the normalization of working from home has made this a good deal more convenient than it was (and has, one can only hope, dispelled once and for all the fiction that dragging yourself to work sick is an act of self-sacrificing fortitude; it’s not—it’s just plain inconsiderate). For much of the labor force, though, remote work isn’t an option, and more than a fifth of American workers don’t have paid sick leave. Among the country’s lowest earners—the people most likely to need it—only about a third do. (Every wealthy country in the world except the United States guarantees paid sick leave.)
The complicated part of isolating is knowing when to stop. No one-size-fits-all formula will spit out the right answer in every case, for every type of infection, Langlois told me. One person might be completely virus-free five days after symptom onset; another might still be highly contagious. Even for the most responsible among us, this ambiguity can make for some awkward calculus. Can you afford to miss that work meeting? How about family dinner? It would be a real pain to cancel those travel plans—but should you?
After a couple of years of COVID management, we at least in theory have better tools and practices for helping people manage these situations. Many of us have gotten into the habit of regularly testing and retesting ourselves for COVID, and now is no time to stop. But Seema Lakdawala, a flu-transmission expert at the University of Pittsburgh, envisions a world with universally accessible testing for a whole range of pathogens: influenza, RSV, adenovirus, rhinovirus, seasonal-cold-causing coronaviruses, and, of course, SARS-CoV-2. Sites at every street corner would offer patients not only a diagnosis but a prescription for the appropriate medication. People in rural areas could acquire at-home tests at drug stores or order them online. Someone who tested positive only for a seasonal coronavirus could undertake a more relaxed isolation (Langlois, for one, doesn’t think it’s practical to ask people to fully stay home for a common cold, though they should certainly still mask), while someone who tested positive for influenza, which kills tens of thousands of people most years, would know to take stricter precautions. Whatever the situation, you’d know you were in the clear when you tested negative for whatever you’d originally tested positive for.
For now, Lakdawala admits that a world of such universal, accessible testing remains a distant fantasy. She and the other experts I spoke with offered several more-practical pieces of guidance. Even if it gets awkward, it’s good practice to notify people you may have exposed to a pathogen, just as we’ve been encouraged to do with COVID. If you have a fever, keep to yourself as much as possible until at least 24 hours after it subsides. If you don’t have a fever, Landon told me, you should be clear to reenter society after your symptoms resolve. For a common cold, she said, that generally takes three to five days; for flu, five to seven. Certain symptoms can stick around for weeks after that, but as long as you’re not feeling disgusting, Landon said, you can responsibly venture out. (Call it the “ew” test.) Leaving isolation with a lingering cough is fine, Saskia Popescu, an epidemiologist at George Mason University, told me, “as long as it’s not that wet, nasty cough.”
If you’re still symptomatic after the recommended isolation period, or if you must venture out before it’s over, whether on an essential errand or because your employer doesn’t grant sick leave, you should wear a high-quality mask. The same is true, Landon told me, of that ambiguous period when you feel a little off and are just starting to wonder whether you’re coming down with something: If you’re not sure, mask up. People tend to be quite contagious during that stage, and the worst thing that can happen is you take a minor superfluous precaution and wake up the next morning feeling fine. Yes, masks can be uncomfortable, and yes, it’s a tragedy that such a fundamental health intervention has been co-opted into the culture war, but they remain one of the most effective, least disruptive tools at our disposal for fighting all types of respiratory infections. An N95 or KN95 is best, but a surgical or cloth mask is better than nothing, Lakdawala said, especially because plenty of people can’t afford to continually replenish a stock of top-notch disposables. Health-care providers and employers, she suggested, could offer free masks, which would protect patients, workers, and those around them.
Like widespread testing, a continuous supply of free masks and universal paid sick leave are merely a distant vision. Congress is currently struggling to prop up our most basic public-health infrastructure during a pandemic, leaving Americans to figure out COVID for themselves. The same will likely apply to all the other familiar viruses we reacquaint ourselves with. Whether the more modest, behavioral changes we’ve adopted over the past two-plus years outlast the pandemic is anyone’s guess. In this era of perpetual flux, one constant has been the disconnect between what we know we ought to do and what we actually end up doing…
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On The Road – PaulB – A visit to the Olympic Peninsula 6 of 10
Reader Interactions
66Comments
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oldster
The stories about deaths in the early days — people’s lungs congealing to a solid mass, people gasping out last words, whether of love or brain-washed denial, ICU staff on the brink of collapse — has all of that gone away? Are the 350 deaths per day right now all peaceful and serene?
Or is it just as awful for those 350 and their caregivers, but the NYTimes has moved on to telling us about the latest pampered princess of cancel culture martyrdom?
Matt McIrvin
Metro Boston seems to have settled into this flat period in both wastewater and case counts–it looked for a while like cases were blipping up in some places but that seems to be noise.
I’d say that my behavior has contributed to my not getting COVID yet but it seems like most people who were about as careful as I am have gotten it. My best guess is that I have had COVID at some point but it was a sufficiently mild case that it was drowned in my general allergy symptoms. I suppose one way I differ from most of my coworkers is that I ran out and got the second booster as soon as I could, and I don’t think most of them did (many were not eligible). But that was a while ago now.
raven
No shit
Matt McIrvin
…About getting the second booster, I’ve been assuming that if a better vaccine becomes available sometime in the fall, having gotten the second booster back in the spring or summer won’t be a major impediment to getting it, at least not indefinitely. Maybe that’s incorrect but it seems to be the pattern to the CDC and FDA’s recommendations–they eventually come around to recommending that everyone get stuff, and it’s not that hard to get shots if you want them in any event.
Matt McIrvin
I don’t believe that is true, because the wastewater counts are much lower. Unless BA.4/BA.5 produces fewer virus particles per person, and I don’t think it does.
lashonharangue
I just tested negative so I can resume going out. I was double boosted. The symptoms were like a bad flu but I don’t have any risk factors other than age. I still get tired quickly. I am sure I caught in an airport.
Spanky
@raven: Did you get any guidance on that from your doctor(s)?
Hazmat
Where are you tracking the wastewater counts?
tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat)
I’m going back to the US on Aug. 16th. It’s the first time in 3 years. My mom is not getting any younger. I was going twice a year in the few years prior as my parents aged. The last time I went, my dad had just passed away. The ticket I bought this weekend for a direct flight Tokyo-San Diego cost me over $3,000, nearly 3 times what I used to pay. That aside, I’ve been wearing masks for 3 years. I can’t imagine not wearing masks in the US. I find the idea unnerving, partly b/c I have to get back on a plane in two weeks and the last thing I want is to get sick in the US without health insurance. Honestly, if I did not feel like I need to check on my mom, I’d stay home. It’s more than a month away and I’m already stressed.
My city just started offering fourth boosters, starting with the elderly. I might be able to squeeze in mine before I go, but am not sure.
Suzanne
@Matt McIrvin:
My whole house is Covid-positive right now. My husband and Spawn the Younger and I are all vaxxed-and-boosted, SuzMom is vaxxed-and-double-boosted, and Spawn the Youngest doesn’t have a jab yet. My husband and my mom have Paxlovid, I do not.
We were pretty fucken careful, and it seems most likely based on timing of symptoms that we got it while traveling back from our family reunion trip. The airports are an absolute disaster right now, very crowded, long waits, canceled flights, delays, no one masking. From leaving the hotel for the airport to getting back home, it was about fourteen hours of travel. We did our best to mask, but one has to eat and drink.
Anyway, Youngest is the only one who had a fever (about 100 degrees), for about two days. By the time she tested positive, the fever was gone. Everyone else’s experience has been so mild as to be missable. I have had ongoing allergy issues for years that result in a few days of sore throat, raspy voice, sinus pain, post-nasal drip, maybe a dry cough, etc…. and I would not have differentiated this from any of that, had I not been on the lookout. I’ve been good about quarantining, but in the Before Times, I absolutely would have just gone to work.
The vaccines are a marvel of science and I am a fan.
satby
@Matt McIrvin: It’s frustrating. Those of us with pervasive allergies (and in my case allergic asthma only moderately controlled) have no good guidance on any of this as far as “paying attention to your symptoms”. I have had “respiratory symptoms” for at least the last 20 years. I could legitimately have to test myself constantly. And the one time I did have covid I tested negative because it was too early, and could not schedule a follow-up test until after the contagious window passed. I’m not sure why it’s still being classified as a pandemic because it’s pretty clearly endemic now. And most people seem to be reacting as if it is. Which is concerning; a lot of people don’t get yearly flu shots, for instance.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 2,536 new Covid-19 cases yesterday, for a cumulative reported total of 4,573,891 cases. It also reported five deaths for an adjusted cumulative total of 35,776 deaths – 0.78% of the cumulative reported total, 0.79% of resolved cases.
There were 29,793 active cases yesterday, 592 fewer than the day before. 1,221 were in hospital. 45 confirmed cases were in ICU; of these patients, 25 confirmed cases were on ventilators. Meanwhile, 3,123 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 4,508,322 patients recovered – 98.6% of the cumulative reported total.
2,533 new cases reported yesterday were local infections. Three new cases were imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 6,084 doses of vaccine on 3rd July: 368 first doses, 5,059 second doses, and 657 booster doses. The cumulative total is 71,266,569 doses administered: 28,042,629 first doses, 27,292,449 second doses, and 16,146,621 booster doses. 85.9% of the population have received their first dose, 83.6% their second dose, and 49.4% their booster dose.
Falling Diphthong
I feel like I’ve been reading “The surge in hospitalizations is coming! Next week! Or week after!” for 6-8 months now.
Matt McIrvin
@Hazmat:
On a couple of sites. Biobot’s website has data for many counties across the country, though coverage is a bit scattershot and there’s a lag in updating:
https://biobot.io/data/
The MWRA has more frequently updated data for metro Boston, also from Biobot:
https://www.mwra.com/biobot/biobotdata.htm
On that MWRA page it’s often possible to catch infection spikes before they appear in the case counts.
satby
@Amir Khalid: Amir, does the immunization program seem to have stalled in Malaysia as it has here? Those numbers, especially on the first and second shots, are higher than ours in the States, but none of the stats seem to have changed much in a while.
Suzanne
@satby: The other thing that makes this hard is that the antigen tests apparently aren’t sensitive enough to give you a positive for a couple of days after you’ve been infected.
I’m pretty well convinced that getting Covid is functionally unavoidable at this point, short of really avoiding most activities. Not to say that we can’t take steps to reduce it, but it’s definitely endemic at this point.
Matt McIrvin
@Falling Diphthong: The surge in hospitalizations did happen, from both the winter Omicron wave and the spring rebound–you can see it on covidactnow:
https://covidactnow.org/?s=36272403
The spring wave wasn’t too bad by comparison with the main Omicron wave, but Omicron was crazy.
I don’t believe Wachter’s claim the wave we’re in is really about as big as the winter wave; there’s too much data contradicting that. I think it’s about 1/4 to 1/3 the size, depending on where you are. But it’s been significant.
Matt McIrvin
(One thing that tripped me up for a while when making longer-term historical comparisons using wastewater is that these RNA counts depend on how much virus comes out of an infected person. The thing that initially struck me was that the first waves in 2020 seemed tiny by comparison with everything else–I’d assumed that the spring 2020 wave were massively undercounted, but maybe that wasn’t true! But then I remembered that wild-type COVID and Alpha variant patients emitted much, much less virus than people infected with Delta and Omicron–that’s the main reason why they are so much more contagious.)
Starfish
@Matt McIrvin: Wastewater counts are much lower where you are. In places that were doing an okay job but then decided that they were going to cave to the pressure of the worst behaved people, maybe wastewater counts are not so great.
Matt McIrvin
@satby: Yeah, I mean, I could take a rapid antigen test every day but I’m not going to do that.
evap
I ended my isolation yesterday, 10 days after first having symptoms and testing positive. Spousal unit got it first and was symptom-free and testing negative after 5 days. I still have a small bit of congestion, but otherwise feel fine.
I’m not sure if my case goes into the statistics. I did a home test only, but I talked to my doctor. Does the doctor report it?
Starfish
@tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat): That’s tricky.
Even though I go against dominant culture by wearing a mask indoors, no one has been rude about it. I am not sure how people are behaving in San Diego. My impression is that some cities are behaving a little more seriously.
Matt McIrvin
@Starfish: As far as I can tell it’s pretty consistent across regions of the US, going by Biobot data–though in the Northeast the contrast is larger mostly because the winter Omicron wave was so much worse here.
dmsilev
@Matt McIrvin: Also, we were undoubtedly missing huge swaths of cases back in January, so the true rate back then was much higher than the reported.
Starfish
@satby: This is exactly what I have been dealing with. We tested before we were to be visited by someone who is at high risk.
Starfish
@Matt McIrvin: Look at the only county in Colorado that has any data at all. We are at some mid-level COVID-19 plateau because no one cares.
Matt McIrvin
@Suzanne: I’ve flown on airplanes (masked but you get hungry eventually), gone to rock concerts in packed houses (fanatically masked), seen a couple of movies in theaters (again, it’s hard to avoid buying concessions and you can’t eat popcorn in a mask), hung out with my parents in Virginia, done some indoor dining though way less than we used to do in the Before Times. I work from home, but by COVID Twitter standards this is all super lax, to the point that I know some of those people would basically regard me as the same as a MAGAt with a red ball cap. I got my second booster way back in April but from every indication I’ve heard, the protection against infection that gives me by now should be basically nil. So why haven’t I gotten COVID? Most probably the answer is that I have had COVID.
satby
@Suzanne: agreed on all points.
satby
@Matt McIrvin: I don’t think once vaccinated the protection goes to nil over time. Antibodies reduce, but T-cells and other immunity seems to remain, from everything I’ve read so far.
Geminid
@Starfish: I wear a mask when I shop at the Stanardsville Great Value grocery store (it’s in a rural/exurban county that votes Republican around 60/40%). I think a quarter of the customers are masked. There seems to be no friction at all between the masked and the unmasked. About a third of store employees are masked and that helps, I think.
The only time I’ve seen anyone kick about masks was a few months into the pandemic when I visited the smaller Celt Store. The three employees were all masked, the first time I’d seen this. Some young guy was giving them grief in a smartass way. They either knew him or they knew the type so they just ignored him. The owner was there and masked, and the young smartass did not press it.
Matt McIrvin
@Starfish: Anyway, I can tell you that where I live in Massachusetts, no one cares either. People are basically acting like COVID is over. It’s different closer in to Boston. I think we’ve been hit less by the current wave mostly because the previous Omicron wave infected so many people that there’s still some residual infection resistance.
Matt McIrvin
@satby: Correct, but I meant protection against getting infected to the point that you test positive and are contagious, not against getting seriously ill (that is quite lasting). The front line is mostly antibodies.
wvng
I suddenly know a bunch of people getting covid, all vaccinated and boosted. To a one they are having a few days of very unpleasant illness, with symptoms largely dissipating after 4-5 days. However, my daughter and her bo thought they were over the worst and then they suddenly lost their sense of smell.
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
NYSDOH says 84 new cases for 7/1/22
75 new cases for 7/2/22
87 new cases for 7/3/22
(PCR tests only).
Ten Bears
It ran through our house last week. So far the Trump-Plague hasn’t been much of an imposition ~ with two brain surgeries and three spine isolation was easy. Now we’re at the point that other than surgeries, doctors’ appointments and all else we get out of the house FOR THE FIRST TIME for out-patient physical therapy and BINGO! Three day’s later she’s flat out, tested positive, twice (I didn’t trust the first one). On (now off) the Paxlovid cocktail (which requires all kinds of other adjustments). Literally the first time she’s been out of the house in two and a half years. Kinda’ chaps m’hide but on-the-other-hand could be an omen: same place I caught it two years ago.
For what it’s worth …
satby
@Matt McIrvin: ok, but even asymptomatic people have tested positive and are contagious; they happen to be discovered usually as a result of a pretest for a medical procedure or travel, or something. And asymptomatic people otherwise would have no reason to test, so a lot of contagion will fly under the radar. I presume we’ll all get it, it’ll be as difficult as evading the common cold eventually. I think the looming problem, which is already showing up in booster compliance, is when it’s that endemic, “like the flu”, that the complacency will result in less regular vaccination, except among the very vulnerable.
Suzanne
@Matt McIrvin: What you described is very similar to what Mr. Suzanne and I have been doing. I also go to hot yoga, and I wear a mask, and I can tell you that I am ready to stop that shit once Youngest is vaxxed. I don’t mind masking most of the time, but wearing it at hot yoga does suck.
Matt McIrvin
@Suzanne: Oh, yeah, we just reactivated our family gym membership, after a lapse that was due to not just COVID but also the gym burning down and being rebuilt. I’m not doing cardio in an N95. It’d get soaked with sweat and useless anyway. That’s probably my single riskiest activity at this point–but there are health risks associated with not doing it as well. We’re getting into the time of the summer when outdoor exercise gets difficult again.
Matt McIrvin
@satby: On the bright side, even the unvaccinated human population is never going to be as immunologically naive as we were in the spring of 2020; most people going forward will probably get COVID for the first time as small children, when they’re somewhat better able to take it, and then they’ll have some T/B-cell immunity.
And I do still believe that in a few years once the partisan political salience has died down, COVID will just be a regular part of the childhood vaccination schedule and parents who aren’t hardcore wingnuts or alt-med fanatics will accept their kids getting it. (Though there is the contrary danger that COVID antivaxxerism will spread to a rejection of all other vaccines.)
That won’t lead to the flu-vaccine-like, yearly or twice-yearly shots that adults should be getting, but it’ll establish a baseline that keeps the death and hospitalization rate down.
Matt McIrvin
@Ten Bears:
Oh, yeah, I went through THAT too! In the days before I could even get vaccinated! And didn’t get sick! Go figure.
Ohio Mom
@Matt McIrvin: Apparently you can get Covid more then once.
I was entertaining the idea, Just get Covid and get over it, like the old attitude about some childhood diseases. But knowing there is no permanent immunity, I’ll keep trying to avoid it the worst of it, mainly by keeping up with boosters.
tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat)
@Starfish: Thanks. In one of my private classes, the mom brought her daughter to class today. She’s just finished up a year at CUNY and is back in Japan for the summer break. She said no one is masking in NY and it took her four days to get used to masking here in Japan. The humidity is really high here, so it does suck wearing a mask. I wear it as well when I do aikido. I’m not sure what it’ll take for Japan to be comfortable again maskless.
Amir Khalid
@satby:
Per Ministry of Health stats, the demographic with the slowest uptake is kids aged 5-11, the youngest group for whom vaccination is approved — 49.3% of them have had their first dose, 38.4% their second. Adolescents aged 12-17 and adults 18-whatever have first- and second-vax rates well into the high 90+% range, and some 68% of the latter have had at least one booster shot. (You have to be 18 here to get a booster, and a second booster is not mandatory.)
So nearly everyone here over 12 has had both shots. It seems to me that that while parents of young kids were willing to get themselves vaxxed, most of them still haven’t seen the same need for their kids.
Amir Khalid
@tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat):
The Japanese will mask up to avoid spreading infection when they have coughs and colds, and they’ve done it for decades. I expect they’ll be among the last to give up masking against Covid-19.
YY_Sima Qian
On 7/3 Mainland China reported 41 new domestic confirmed (2 previously asymptomatic), 339 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 0 new domestic suspect cases, & 0 new deaths.
Guangdong Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed case, at Guangzhou, a quarantine hotel worker living in “closed loop”, found via regular screening. 2 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 13 active domestic confirmed (3 at Guangzhou & 10 at Shenzhen) & 25 active domestic asymptomatic (all at Shenzhen) cases in the province.
At Fangchenggang in Guangxi “Autonomous” Region 7 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 22 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
At Wuhan in Hubei Province there currently are 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
At Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region 7 domestic confirmed & 2 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 14 active domestic confirmed (12 at Xilingol League & 2 at Chifeng) & 10 active domestic asymptomatic (9 at Xilingol League & 1 at Chifeng) cases in the region.
Xi’an in Shaanxi Province reported 3 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 1 traced close contact under centralized quarantine, 1 found via screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure, & 1 via community screening. There currently are 3 active confirmed & 6 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 site is currently at High Risk, & 3 at Medium Risk.
Qingdao in Shandong Province reported 4 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic) & 4 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all new positive cases are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. There currently are 15 active domestic confirmed & 23 domestic asymptomatic cases.
At Hebei Province 2 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case remaining in the province.
Liaoning Province reported 9 new domestic asymptomatic (all at Dandong) cases, 7 traced close contacts under centralized quarantine & 2 found via community screening in Low Risk areas. 5 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 66 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. 14 sites at Dandong are currently at High Risk, & 12 sites at Medium Risk. 1 area at Dalian is currently at High Risk, & 1 area at Medium Risk, due to a reported imported asymptomatic case.
At Jilin Province 1 domestic asymptomatic case recovered.
At Beijing Municipality 5 domestic confirmed cases recovered. The municipality is not publishing the count of active domestic positive cases there. 1 residential compound is currently at High Risk.
At Tianjin Municipality there currently are 15 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.
Shanghai Municipality reported 2 new domestic confirmed & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 2 traced close contact under centralized quarantine & 1 via community screening (in Putuo District). 6 domestic confirmed & 3 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There were 0 new deaths. There currently are 20 active domestic confirmed (none serious) in the city. The city is no longer publishing the number of active asymptomatic cases. 1 site is currently at High Risk & 4 at Medium Risk.
Anhui Province reported 29 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic, all mild) & 258 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 133 active domestic confirmed & 724 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Jiangsu Province reported 4 new domestic confirmed & 52 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 16 active domestic & 175 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. The clusters in the province are all seeded by the outbreak at Suzhou in Anhui.
Zhejiang Province reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic (1 each at Hangzhou & Jinhua) cases, both persons under centralized quarantine. As the province does not break down recoveries by imported & domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there.
At Ji’an in Jiangxi Province there currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case in the city.
Fujian Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 9 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Ningde, the index case was found at fever clinic & the rest are traced close contacts or found via community screening. 1 domestic asymptomatic case recovered. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed (at Ningde) & 10 active domestic asymptomatic (9 at Ningde & 1 at Fuzhou) cases remaining.
Sichuan Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, at Chengdu, a traced close contact of an imported positive case, under centralized quarantine. As the province does not break down recoveries by imported & domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there.
At Yunnan Province there currently are 5 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Imported Cases
On 7/3, Mainland China reported 31 new imported confirmed cases (7 previously asymptomatic), 49 imported asymptomatic cases, 0 imported suspect cases:
Overall in Mainland China, 50 confirmed cases recovered (32 imported), 76 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (53 imported) & 9 were reclassified as confirmed cases (7 imported), & 3,759 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 532 active confirmed cases in the country (299 imported), none in serious/critical condition, 1,552 active asymptomatic cases (398 imported), 0 suspect cases. 61,500 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 7/3, 3,403.989M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 346K doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 7/3 Macau reported 68 positive case, 21 are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine & 47 via community screening.
On 7/3 Hong Kong added 1,841 new positive cases, 196 imported & 1,645 domestic (276 via RT-PCR & 1,369 from rapid antigen tests), 0 deaths.
On 7/3, Taiwan added 23,118 new positive cases, 73 imported & 23,045 domestic (including 167 moderate or serious). There were 69 new deaths (ages ranging from < 5 y.o. to 90+ y.o., actual dates of death range from 6/23 – 6/30, 64 having a range of underlying conditions, 21 fully vaccinated & boosted).
hrprogressive
As of this writing, I’ve still had no known exposure. Why? Because I’ve lived in functional isolation for 2.5 years:
Add to that, that when the rare trips in public happen, wearing an N95 + mask over the N95 + 3 shots each Means it has been avoided in this household as to the best of our knowledge as of now.
And the way things continue to go?
It’ll be 2025 before any of this changes. And even then, by that point, it might not matter.
If I had known our lives were going to functionally cease to be as we knew them after 2019, I damn sure would have done a lot of things differently.
Stay safe and alert out there all.
Ten Bears
What is that incessant buzz, that overblown whine … ?
Soprano2
@Matt McIrvin: Yes, this is what I thought – “Look at the wastewater info, stupid, it’s better than testing numbers ever were because it captures the asymptomatic cases too!” Historical wastewater testing will be the most reliable record of Covid levels where it’s available.
satby
Maybe it’s working at the doctor’s office, but in my experience that’s already underway. And not just in the politically right wing either. Which is more worrisome.
YY_Sima Qian
I am currently taking a vacation w/ my family in Sanya, Hainan, also known as “China’s Hawaii”. It is the 1st lengthy vacation we have taken since the beginning of the pandemic. Coming from Wuhan, a Low Risk Area, we only had to get swabbed upon landing at the airport. We are also supposed to get tested a 2nd time w/in 3 days, but it does not appear to be rigorously enforced, as not taking a test in time does not result in a “grey code” on one’s health code here, which would otherwise restrict access to almost all public spaces. I had to present a scan a QR code to enter most major public spaces (resorts & attractions), to both verify my health code status as well as log my entry into these facilities. I did not have to show health code to taxi or Didi drivers.
It is not quite peak season, yet, since summer break has yet to start for elementary to middle schools. However, I am told that all of the resorts are fully booked, though the beaches, pools, restaurants & attractions don’t feel that crowded to me. People are pretty conscientious about masking in indoor spaces. There are a lot of Shanghainese here. Normally it would be majority from Northern China, especially Manchuria. I guess people on Shanghai are on going revenge travel & consumption, after being under lock down over 2 months, & apparently Hainan is one of the places w/ the least onerous procedures for visitors from Shanghai.
Having been to the beaches & resorts in French Polynesia, I find the Sanya experience to be a bit meh. However, it is still good to be on a lengthy break, & it is pretty relaxing here. My daughter is loving the beaches, pools & aquariums!
Kristine
@satby:
Bingo.
There were a few times earlier this spring when I felt so bad I swore I had the grim. Tested myself 2x with a lag of a couple of days between tests–negative both times. But my head’s been stuffy for years, and pnd aggravated by hypothyroidism means periodic sore throat and stomach issues along with sinus problems. I could’ve had several mild cases over these last few years and totally missed them.
satby
@YY_Sima Qian: Enjoy! It’s been a long time coming.
My volunteer vacation to Thailand has been postponed by the travel company again, I assume because some of the local businesses and organizations they partner with didn’t survive the pandemic shutdowns. That means it’s been pushed into 2023, and I first signed up in January 2020 as the pandemic got going. The thing is, I’m getting older too, and starting to be concerned that a trip I was reasonably fit for in 2020-21-22 I may struggle with by 2023.
YY_Sima Qian
Last week, China National Health Commission updated its pandemic response guidelines, w/ some loosening of restrictions. Rumor has it that it was supposed to be released in Mar., but the big outbreak in Shanghai spooked the authorities, & delayed the announcement & implementation. A few highlights:
1) Traced close contacts now only need to undergo 7 days of centralized quarantine, followed by 3 days of home quarantine, reduced from 14 + 14 or 14 + 7 before. Likewise for overseas arrivals & travelers from domestic regions w/ active outbreaks.
2) Travelers from High Risk areas need to undergo 7 days of centralized quarantine, & travelers from Medium Risk areas need to undergo 7 days of home quarantine, travelers from Low Risk areas (even if from a city w/ active outbreaks) do not need to undergo any quarantine
3) Movement restrictions are now applied by the area’s risk level, w/ definitions updated to include asymptomatic cases, whereas only confirmed cases would trigger elevation of risk levels, giving local authorities the opening to game the system. OTOH, the often haphazardly implemented “Three Levels” of movement control (“Lock down”, “restricted movement”, “preventive alert”), whose zones generally far exceeded the designated Medium/High Risk areas. This is probably why there is suddenly a huge increase in the number or sites designated as Medium or High Risk. There are exceptions, such as the entirety of Si County in Suzhou, Anhui Province is under lock down, even though the sites at elevated Risk levels do not cover the entire county. A High Risk area can be re-designated to Medium Risk if there has been no community cases for 7 days, & a Medium Risk area can be re-designated to Low Risk if there has been no community cases for 3 days, reduced from 14 days before.
4) Jurisdictions are guided to reduce the frequency of mass screenings the further removed it is from the elimination of the local outbreaks. Wuhan, for example, has reduced frequency from once every 3 days to once every 5. However, unlike Hainan Province, Wuhan still assign a “grey code” to persons who did not take a test in time,
The purposes of the new guidelines are surely to reduce the expenditures associated w/ “Dynamic Zero COVID” policies, rein in the tendency of each rung of local government further tightening restrictions from the guidelines issued above, sometimes to truly ridiculous levels, & promote economic activity (or avoid unnecessarily depressing such activity. For example, last year I took a business trip to Shenzhen in Guangdong, there happened to be a very small Delta cluster of 2 cases at the airport there. I did not fly to Shenzhen, & I stayed in a hotel 20+ KMs from the airport. Unfortunately, since my hotel was in the same huge district as the airport, I was sent to 14 days of centralized quarantine after returning to Wuhan, in not so good conditions (the window was boarded up so no sun light, poor cell signal & Wifi). I was supposed to undergo another 14 days of home quarantine, but mercifully it ended after 3 days, after Shenzhen went 14 days w/o new cases. Last months, I took another trip to Shenzhen. Another cluster was discovered shortly after I left, ultimately number dozens of cases, mostly in the same district as the hotel I stayed at, the adjacent sub-district, in fact. This time, however, I just received a few phone calls from the community office & the district pandemic response command. As I had not travel history to the sub-districts w/ active cases, I did not have to do anything else, not even additional testing.
Of course, given the distributed/fragmented authoritarian model of the CCP regime, it will take a while before all of the jurisdictions are aligned w/ the new guidelines from Beijing, & plenty of local officials will still incentivized to tack additional restrictions on their own. After all, they are still held accountable for allowing an outbreak to occur, & for containing/suppressing/eliminating outbreaks, under “Dynamic Zero COVID”. The sizable outbreak at Si County in Suzhou, Anhui Province, serve as a warning. It is the outlying rural county of a 4th tier city. It has not suffered a COVID outbreak in quite some time. The local population is not particularly alert, pandemic response measures are inconsistently implemented & followed, & local governments do not have the financial wherewithal to conduct regular mass screening campaigns as normal practice.
YY_Sima Qian
@satby: I hope you get to Thailand soon! The country could use the tourist dollars, too, since the Chinese tourists have yet to return in any numbers.
I know plenty of people on China who have been traveling domestically over the past 3 years. The main reason we have not taken trips longer than a long weekend is due to the fact that we have a very young daughter, & my wife & I have been reluctant to disrupt her routine, which any extensive travel is sure to do. Furthermore, my wife works in a university, which has placed additional restrictions on students & staff. My work normally involves quite a bit of business travel, as well, so I have to be careful that any personal travel I take does not end up making it impossible for me to travel for business. Due to the long Omicron wave in China, & the resultant restrictions, I ended up pausing my business trips for ~ 5 months, only resumed last month.
Matt McIrvin
@hrprogressive: “The duration” is forever. This is never going to end for the rest of our lives. That realization (and the fact that my family isn’t going to commit indefinitely) has caused me to back off a bit from extreme measures.
Hazmat
@Matt McIrvin: Thanks, bookmarked!
Glidwrith
@Starfish: Roughly one in ten are masking here. Maybe get a bit of side eye, but no one says anything
Glidwrith
@Glidwrith: And Covid is in full swing here. County web-site had a case count of over 2,000 in one day. Husband and daughter have both contracted it, despite us masking with N95s.
Matt McIrvin
@Hazmat: Of course, there are selection biases here: wastewater sampling can only usefully be done in places that have public sewers rather than everyone having a septic system (this is an issue for places quite near me), and it only will be done in places where the local authorities have some interest in monitoring COVID.
Another Scott
@Matt McIrvin: Alexandria VA’s wastewater counts are as high as they have ever been, but the data is not continuous (there’s no data for the infection peak last winter).
I don’t know how this ends. 100,000+ confirmed infections a day in the USA is not good for a novel virus that is still rapidly mutating. I’m still masking everywhere and doing my best to avoid infection.
Cheers,
Scott.
Matt McIrvin
@Another Scott: There seem to be a lot of places like that–areas that weren’t doing wastewater counts through the big Omicron wave. In most places where they were, it was enormous. In my county it peaked at 15 times what you’re seeing now.
Truckinbroke
I am making $92 an hour working from home. i was greatly surprised at the same time as my neighbour advised me she changed into averaging $ninety five however I see the way it works now. I experience mass freedom now that I’m my non-public boss.
That is what I do… http://www.salarycash1.com
wenchacha
@tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat):
Have you checked out zipair? My son got his LAX to Narita flight for about $1000 on short notice.
YY_Sima Qian
On 7/4 Mainland China reported 69 new domestic confirmed (9 previously asymptomatic), 266 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 0 new domestic suspect cases, & 0 new deaths.
Guangdong Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed (at Heyuan) & 2 new domestic asymptomatic (1 each at Guangzhou & Shenzhen) cases. The case at Heyuan is a traced close contact of domestic positive cases elsewhere & under centralized quarantine. The cases at Guangzhou & Shenzhen are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 13 active domestic confirmed & 27 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot traced the active domestic cases in each jurisdictions due to multiple clusters at the same time.
At Fangchenggang in Guangxi “Autonomous” Region 3 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 19 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
At Wuhan in Hubei Province there currently are 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
At Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region there currently are 14 active domestic confirmed (12 at Xilingol League & 2 at Chifeng) & 10 active domestic asymptomatic (9 at Xilingol League & 1 at Chifeng) cases in the region.
Xi’an in Shaanxi Province reported 7 new domestic confirmed & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 7 traced close contacts under centralized quarantine & 2 via community screening. There currently are 10 active confirmed & 8 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 5 sites are currently at High Risk, & 3 at Medium Risk.
Qingdao in Shandong Province reported 3 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic) & 4 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all new positive cases are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. There currently are 18 active domestic confirmed & 26 domestic asymptomatic cases.
At Hebei Province the last domestic confirmed case recovered.
Liaoning Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic ( at Dandong) case, a traced close contact under centralized quarantine. 6 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 61 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. 13 sites at Dandong are currently at High Risk, & 11 sites at Medium Risk. 1 area at Dalian is currently at High Risk, & 1 area at Medium Risk, due to a reported imported asymptomatic case.
At Jilin Province 6 domestic asymptomatic case recovered.
Beijing Municipality reported 3 new domestic confirmed cases, 1 via community screening & 2 traced close contacts under centralized quarantine, all workers at a hotel in the city’s outskirts. 4 domestic confirmed & 1 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The municipality is not publishing the count of active domestic positive cases there. 3 sites are currently at High Risk, & 3 at Medium Risk.
At Tianjin Municipality 4 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 11 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining. 3 sites are currently at High Risk, & 6 at Medium Risk.
Shanghai Municipality reported 3 new domestic confirmed & 5 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 7 traced close contact under centralized quarantine & 1 via community screening (in Pudong District). 1 domestic confirmed & 1 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There were 0 new deaths. There currently are 22 active domestic confirmed (none serious) in the city. The city is no longer publishing the number of active asymptomatic cases. 3 sites are currently at High Risk & 8 at Medium Risk.
Anhui Province reported 52 new domestic confirmed (8 previously asymptomatic, all mild) & 179 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 185 active domestic confirmed & 895 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Jiangsu Province reported 66 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 16 active domestic & 241 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. The clusters in the province are all seeded by the outbreak at Suzhou in Anhui.
Zhejiang Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. As the province does not break down recoveries by imported & domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there.
At Ji’an in Jiangxi Province there currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case in the city.
Fujian Province reported 7 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Xiapu County in Ningde, all traced closed contacts under centralized quarantine. Genetic sequencing show the outbreak in Xiapu County is of the BA.2.3 strain, caused by fishermen interacting w/ crews of foreign fishing boats on the high seas. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed (at Ningde) & 17 active domestic asymptomatic (16 at Ningde & 1 at Fuzhou) cases remaining. 12 sites at Xiapu County in Ningde are currently at High Risk, & 9 at Medium Risk.
Sichuan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. As the province does not break down recoveries by imported & domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there.
At Yunnan Province there currently are 5 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Imported Cases
On 7/4, Mainland China reported 43 new imported confirmed cases (3 previously asymptomatic), 40 imported asymptomatic cases, 1 imported suspect case:
Overall in Mainland China, 34 confirmed cases recovered (27 imported), 72 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (51 imported) & 12 were reclassified as confirmed cases (3 imported), & 4,048 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 610 active confirmed cases in the country (315 imported), 1 in serious/critical condition (domestic), 1,774 active asymptomatic cases (384 imported), 1 suspect cases (imported). 61,704 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 7/4, 3,404.537M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 548K doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 7/4 Macau reported 89 positive case, 23 are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine & 66 via community screening.
On 7/4 Hong Kong added 1,841 new positive cases, 196 imported & 1,645 domestic (276 via RT-PCR & 1,369 from rapid antigen tests), 0 deaths.
On 7/4, Taiwan added 36,015 new positive cases, 101 imported & 35,914 domestic (including 125 moderate or serious). There were 103 new deaths (ages ranging from 30+ y.o. to 90+ y.o., actual dates of death range from 5/28 – 7/3, 94 having a range of underlying conditions, 45 fully vaccinated & boosted).
soapdish
Is it wrong that I’m just here for pictures of Sparky?
eachother
Gave blood today. No personnel wearing a mask.
2/3 of donors wore masks.