Note: The FYWP function that lets me post screen-shots here decided to go on strike just as I started the process here, so I’ve pruned the list down a bit to get as much as possible updated.
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People have decided that the pandemic is over, would’ve been a more accurate phrasing, but in context, President Biden’s remarks are far less shocking than his opponents would like to pretend:
here are the in-context remarks pic.twitter.com/klWMIChllC
— GONELIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachi) September 19, 2022
Take it from the experts:
… Reaching the end of a pandemic is not like driving out of one county into the next. There is no fixed demarcation between a pandemic and post-pandemic period, especially for the first recorded pandemic caused by a coronavirus. It’s not like we know it’s over if cases drop to a certain level for a prescribed length of time.
Experts say there are no accepted metrics or defined international rules that tell us when we can call the code on this horrible event. In reality, things are much more ephemeral when it comes to knowing when a pandemic is over.
“It’s over when people decide that it’s over. … And most people seem to have decided it’s over,” said John Barry, author of “The Great Influenza,” a history of the 1918 Spanish flu.
Most of the experts who spoke with STAT echoed a version of Barry’s remarks: In some respects, the pandemic is over when people stop taking measures to protect themselves, when they stop following advice about how to lower their risk, when they resume pre-pandemic behavior…
Some people might assume the WHO will issue a decree of sorts, an all-clear declaration. But in reality that’s not something the global health agency does, said Alexandra Phelan, an assistant professor at Georgetown University’s Center for Global Health Science and Security. The WHO didn’t declare the start of the pandemic and it won’t declare an end to it, she said.
At some point, however, the WHO will announce the lifting of the state of emergency it declared in late January of 2020 when Tedros declared the new disease constituted a public health emergency of international concern, or PHEIC, as the instrument is known in public health circles. The director-general seeks advice from a committee of outside experts on issues related to the PHEIC; that committee must meet at least every three months, though it could meet sooner if Tedros asked it to.
The Covid emergency committee last met on July 8, which means an early October meeting must be held. Phelan doesn’t think the committee will advise calling off the PHEIC at that point, though she thinks conditions may allow for it toward the end of the year.
The U.S. government also has an emergency declaration in effect, a tool that gives it powers that have eased its ability to enact policies, allocate funding, and fast-track the authorization of Covid vaccines, drugs, and tests. At some point it will be declared at an end, but that is not what Biden was signaling in the “60 Minutes” interview.
The Department of Health and Human Services has said it will give a 60-day notice to states before it terminates the public health emergency, or allows it to expire. The next date for extending the emergency declaration is in October…
#LongCovid & myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome—ME/CFS—patients protest in front of White House. Protesters expressed frustration that President Biden declared the pandemic over https://t.co/DOmXSL6HzB
— delthia ricks 🔬 (@DelthiaRicks) September 20, 2022
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From a longer thread:
Guiyang officials offered a sincere apology for the accident and expressed condolences to the victims' families. A full review is ongoing and those at fault will be held accountable, but people are saying this isn't enough https://t.co/GhN209ZldF
— Linda Lew 刘凌达 (@Lindadalew) September 19, 2022
Hong Kong flags COVID quarantine policy change, wants an orderly opening-up https://t.co/MrXt4YdEZI pic.twitter.com/d11YwkeBhP
— Reuters (@Reuters) September 20, 2022
Japan has begun its rollout of vaccines against the omicron coronavirus variant as part of efforts to stem the ongoing seventh wave of COVID-19 infections in the country. https://t.co/mUtLiRVviP
— The Japan Times (@japantimes) September 20, 2022
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Looking back, Francis Collins wishes pandemic response leaders were clearer from the jump that evolving situations require evolving guidance.
That's a problem with every outbreak of a new disease. Not sure why we haven't learned that lesson. https://t.co/rVCi0f1WXG— Helen Branswell 🇺🇦 (@HelenBranswell) September 19, 2022
Lots of people still die from Covid and the need for new drugs is very real. But at this stage of our fight with the disease, it's more difficult to test new approaches, as @Jasonmmast explains in this smart piece. https://t.co/Nun4Q8JpON
— Helen Branswell 🇺🇦 (@HelenBranswell) September 19, 2022
In the lab: New genomic test can identify patients at risk of severe #Covid. The approach has proved >90% accurate at predicting outcomes for >2 dozen patients in an ICU at Univ of Virginia & 100 patients from data gathered from Duke and Harvard https://t.co/9b5Tp5kY7B pic.twitter.com/ysRtBLQj0r
— delthia ricks 🔬 (@DelthiaRicks) September 17, 2022
A Boston Univ researcher is proposing a nat'l program to support people w/ #LongCovid. The condition affects millions in the US & has driven many to quit their jobs. Dr. Howard Bauchner wants the govt to commit to a Nat'l Long Covid Compensation Program https://t.co/aHrKLbfBeR pic.twitter.com/0NlTFLRYrC
— delthia ricks 🔬 (@DelthiaRicks) September 18, 2022
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Mortality isn’t the only relevant metric for the pandemic’s damage, but it remains the case that US elevated mortality is being primarily driven by under-vaccination among seniors. https://t.co/NC7EKp3mab
— Chris Hayes (@chrislhayes) September 19, 2022
I’m not sure the lesson is “polio is over, so why did they make us get that stupid polio vaccine?”
— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 19, 2022
On The Road – Kabecoo – Botswana 7
New Deal democrat
Biobot has updated with slightly revised data. Nationally cases are down slightly, but there are big regional variations. In particular, the West is down almost 60% from their summer peak, while the Northeast is at the same level as its last peak.
Confirmed cases declined to 60,600, a 4+ month low, and more than 50% down from their June peak. Regional patterns are confirming the Biobot regional variations. Hospital admissions are down more than 33% from their peak at 30,200. There were 425 deaths.
There has been no new information of note on either BA.2.75.2 or BA.5.2.1.7 a/k/a BF.7, which were segregated out as growing variants in last Friday’s CDC update. It is impossible to tell at this point if they will spark a major wave into winter, or just another ripple.
I agree with Dr. Eric Topol’s editorial this morning: No, President Biden, the COVID pandemic is *not* over. If you go maskless indoors, you will get COVID and probably soon. While mortality risk is at its lowest ever, your outcome will be mainly determined by your age, any deficiencies in your immune system, and your vaccination status.
E.T.A.: I have not seen any graphs that break down mortality by *both* age and vaccination status, which is a real gap in assessing personal risk.
P.S. O/t. I want to thank again everyone who gave me suggestions of places to see in NM and AZ in last night’s open thread, including those who commented very late. I did read and appreciated them all.
lowtechcyclist
Good morning!
rikyrah
With vaccines being available on practically every other corner, we are at the point where the stupid stay stuck on stupid, and the rest of us are supposed to beg them ?
No. Done with that
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
116 new cases reported on 9/16/22
96 new cases reported on 9/18/22
76 new cases reported on 9/19/22
Looks like NYSDOH is back to regular reporting again.
Deaths now at 2004, up 6 from last week.
YY_Sima Qian
On 9/19 Mainland China reported 104 new domestic confirmed (34 previously asymptomatic), 525 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 0 new domestic suspect cases, & 0 new deaths.
Guangdong Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic (at Dongguan) case, a traced close contact under centralized quarantine. 37 domestic confirmed & 22 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 210 active domestic confirmed & 102 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot traced the active domestic cases in each jurisdictions due to multiple clusters at the same time. 3 sites at Shenzhen & 2 at Dongguan are currently at High Risk. 10 sites at Shenzhen, 2 at Dongguan, & 1 at Jiangmen are currently at Medium Risk.
Guangxi “Autonomous” Region reported 7 new domestic asymptomatic (all at Fangchenggang) cases. 12 domestic confirmed & 63 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 56 active domestic confirmed (45 at Fangchenggang & 11 at Wuzhou) & 548 active domestic asymptomatic (489 at Fangchenggang, 30 at Chongzuo, 15 at Wuzhou, 13 at Yulin, & 1 at Baise) cases in the region. 4 sites at Fangchenggang are currently at High Risk, & 6 at Medium Risk.
Hainan Province reported 5 new domestic asymptomatic (3 at Wanning & 2 at Sanya) cases, all persons under centralized quarantine. 89 domestic confirmed & 73 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 693 active domestic confirmed & 1,158 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot traced the active domestic cases in each jurisdictions due to multiple outbreaks at the same time. 7 sites at Wanning & 2 at Sanya are currently at High Risk. 6 sites at Wanning & 4 at Sanya are currently at Medium Risk.
Hunan Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed (previously asymptomatic) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic (at Yueyang) cases, the new domestic positive case coming from out of province. 3 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 10 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not separate recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases at the different jurisdictions, due to the simultaneous outbreaks in different locations.
Hubei Province reported 11 new domestic asymptomatic (7 at Enshi Prefecture & 4 at Ezhou) cases. The cases at Ezhou were found via community screening, a family cluster. 1 domestic confirmed & 15 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed (1 each at Wuhan & Enshi Prefecture) & 311 active domestic asymptomatic (276 at Enshi Prefecture, 17 at Wuhan, 7 at Xiaogan, 4 at Ezhou, 3 at Suizhou, & 2 each at Jingzhou & Xiangyang) cases in the city. 14 sites at Enshi Prefecture are currently at High Risk, & 39 at Medium Risk.
Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region did not report any new domestic positive cases. 7 domestic confirmed & 20 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 239 active domestic confirmed & 277 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the region.
Gansu Province reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic (1 each at Suzhou District in Jiuquan & Ganzhou District in Zhangye) cases, all persons under centralized quarantine. 13 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 3 active domestic confirmed & 137 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not separate recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases at the different jurisdictions, due to the simultaneous outbreaks in different locations. 5 sites at Linxia Prefecture, 4 at Longnan, & 3 at Jiuquan are currently at High Risk. 7 sites at Linxia Prefecture, 6 at Longnan, 4 at Jiuquan, & 1 at Qingyang are currently at Medium Risk.
At Shanxi Province 3 domestic confirmed & 1 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 3 active domestic confirmed (2 at Taiyuan & 1 at Jincheng) & 4 active domestic asymptomatic (2 each at Taiyuan & Jincheng) cases in the province.
Shaanxi Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 4 domestic confirmed & 7 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 37 active domestic confirmed & 178 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot traced the active domestic cases in each jurisdictions due to multiple outbreaks at the same time. 21 sites at Baoji & 4 at Shangluo are currently at Medium Risk.
Xinjiang “Autonomous” Region reported 12 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 1 domestic confirmed & 37 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 294 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the region. As the province no longer separates recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases at the different jurisdictions, due to the simultaneous outbreaks in different locations.
Shandong Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed (both previously asymptomatic) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic case. 12 domestic confirmed & 46 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 77 active domestic confirmed & 436 domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Hebei Province reported 3 new domestic asymptomatic (all at Fengrun District in Tangshan) cases, all their traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. 1 domestic confirmed & 33 asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 3 domestic confirmed & 50 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot traced the active domestic cases in each jurisdictions due to multiple outbreaks at the same time. 6 sites at Tangshan, 5 at Shijiazhuang, & 2 each at Baoding & Chengde are currently High Risk. 14 sites at Baoding, 5 each at Chengde & Tangshan, & 1 at Langfang are currently at Medium Risk.
Henan Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed (previously asymptomatic, at Shenqiu County in Zhoukou) & 7 new domestic asymptomatic (5 at Shenqiu County in Zhoukou & 2 persons transferred from out of province) cases. The cases at Zhoukou are persons under centralized quarantine. 7 domestic confirmed & 58 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 7 active domestic confirmed & 71 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province no longer separates recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases at the different jurisdictions, due to the simultaneous outbreaks in different locations. 2 sites at Zhoukou are currently at High Risk, & 3 at Medium Risk.
At Liaoning Province 4 domestic confirmed & 85 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 36 active domestic confirmed & 523 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not separate recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases at the different jurisdictions, due to the simultaneous outbreaks in different locations. 3 sites at Shenyang are currently at High Risk, & 6 at Medium Risk.
At Changchun in Jilin Province 1 domestic confirmed & 17 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 12 active domestic confirmed & 121 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
Heilongjiang Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic, both at Xiangyang District in Jiamusi) & 44 new domestic asymptomatic (38 at Jiamusi, 5 at Longfeng District in Daqing, & 1 at Aihui District in Heihe) cases. All of the new domestic positive cases at Jiamusi are their traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. 4 of the cases at Daqing are persons under centralized quarantine & 1 is a traced close contact. The case at Heihe was found via screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure. 11 domestic confirmed & 41 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 20 active domestic confirmed (16 at Daqing, 3 at Jiamusi, & 1 at Heihe) & 733 active domestic asymptomatic (653 at Daqing, 45 at Jiamusi, 28 at Heihe, 7 at Suihua) cases in the province. 28 sites at Jiamusi, 11 at Daqing, & 2 at Heihe are currently at High Risk. 43 sites at Daqing, 28 at Jiamusi, & 8 at Heihe are currently at Medium Risk.
At Beijing Municipality 7 domestic confirmed & 4 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The municipality is not publishing the count of active domestic positive cases there. 2 sites are currently at High Risk, & 4 at Medium Risk.
Tianjin Municipality reported 3 new domestic confirmed & 15 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 15 persons under centralized quarantine & 3 via community screening. 17 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The municipality is not publishing the count of active domestic positive cases there. 53 sites are currently at High Risk, & 48 at Medium Risk.
Shanghai Municipality reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic (at Minhang District) case, a persons under centralized quarantine. 1 domestic asymptomatic case recovered. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed in the city. The city is no longer publishing the number of active asymptomatic cases. 2 sites are currently at High Risk, & 1 at Medium Risk.
At Anhui Province 3 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 6 active domestic asymptomatic (3 at Chuzhou, 2 at Anqing, & 1 at Xuancheng) cases in the city.
At Jiangsu Province 3 domestic confirmed & 2 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 4 active domestic confirmed & 6 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not separate recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases at the different jurisdictions, due to the simultaneous outbreaks in different locations.
Zhejiang Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed (previously asymptomatic, at Hangzhou) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic (at Wenzhou) cases, a person under centralized quarantine. 1 domestic asymptomatic case recovered. As the province does not break down recoveries by imported & domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there.
At Fujian Province 4 domestic asymptomatic case recovered. There currently are 8 active domestic confirmed & 22 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining. As the province does not separate recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases at the different jurisdictions, due to the simultaneous outbreaks in different locations. 2 sites at Xiamen are currently at Medium Risk.
Jiangxi Province reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic (both at Yongfeng County in Ji’an) cases. 1 domestic confirmed & 95 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 11 active domestic confirmed (9 at Ji’an & 2 at Yingtan) & 498 active domestic asymptomatic (395 at Ji’an, 91 Ganzhou, 11 at Yingtan, & 1 at Jiujiang) cases in the province. 73 sites at Ji’an & 22 at Ganzhou are currently at High Risk. 46 at Ji’an & 53 at Ganzhou are currently at Medium Risk.
Sichuan Province reported 33 new domestic confirmed (9 previously asymptomatic) & 37 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 72 domestic confirmed & 45 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. As the province had not broken down recoveries by imported & domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there.
Chongqing Municipality reported 1 new domestic confirmed (at Tongnan District) case, a person under centralized quarantine. 3 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 15 active domestic confirmed & 6 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 4 sites are currently at High Risk, & 6 at Medium Risk.
Guizhou Province reported 41 new domestic confirmed (18 previously asymptomatic) & 208 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 672 of whom are backlogs — persons who had already tested positive & have been under medical isolation. 2 domestic confirmed & 49 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 142 active domestic confirmed & 2,496 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Qinghai Province reported 4 new domestic asymptomatic (all at Haixi Prefecture) cases, a recent arrival from Tibet & 3 persons living in “closed loops”. 1 domestic confirmed & 43 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 16 active domestic confirmed & 484 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the region. As the province does not break down recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot traced the active domestic cases in each jurisdictions due to multiple outbreaks at the same time. 2 sites at Haixi Prefecture is currently at Medium Risk.
Tibet “Autonomous” Region reported 16 new domestic confirmed & 160 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all persons under centralized quarantine or via screening of residents under movement control. 10 domestic confirmed & 680 asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 173 active domestic confirmed & 3,915 active domestic asymptomatic cases. The region is not breaking the counts of active domestic positive cases by administrative region.
Yunnan Province reported 3 new domestic confirmed (2 previously asymptomatic, 2 at Yongsheng County in Lijiang & 1 at Ruili in Dehong Prefecture) & 3 new domestic asymptomatic (1 each at Ruili in Dehong Prefecture, Hekou County in Honghe Prefecture, & Yongsheng County in Lijiang) cases, all new domestic positive cases are persons under centralized quarantine. There currently are 17 active domestic confirmed & 29 active domestic asymptomatic cases there. As the province does not break down recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot traced the active domestic cases in each jurisdictions due to multiple outbreaks at the same time. 2 sites at Dehong Prefecture are currently at High Risk, & 4 at Medium Risk.
Imported Cases
On 9/19, Mainland China reported 48 new imported confirmed cases (7 previously asymptomatic), 112 imported asymptomatic cases, 0 imported suspect cases:
Overall in Mainland China, 340 confirmed cases recovered (47 imported), 1,564 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (102 imported) & 42 were reclassified as confirmed cases (7 imported), & 20,574 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 3,458 active confirmed cases in the country (577 imported), 40 in serious/critical condition (all domestic), 17,018 active asymptomatic cases (777 imported), 0 suspect cases. 171,316 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 9/19, 3,435.207M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 235K doses in the past 24 hrs.
Hong Kong has not yet released the data dump for 9/19.
On 9/19, Taiwan added 44,747 new positive cases, 247 imported & 44,500 domestic (including 68 moderate or serious). There were 33 new deaths (ages ranging from 60+ y.o. to 90+ y.o., actual dates of death range from 9/6 to 9/17, 29 w/ underlying conditions, 8 fully vaccinated & boosted).
lowtechcyclist
@rikyrah:
Seconded. If they’re too dumb, or too Republican (but I repeat myself) to get vaccinated, then they can live (or die) with the consequences.
satby
Which is also true of other infectious diseases like the flu and pneumonia, and there are vaccines for those too. The pandemic is moving into “covid is endemic” status; but part of why it hasn’t been declared that is political, not scientific. “Over” doesn’t mean “gone”.
OzarkHillbilly
Even if the pandemic is “over,” I’ma gonna keep wearing the mask in specific environments. I haven’t had a cold or flu since I started wearing them. Good enough reason for me.
Skepticat
After nabbing the last slot available in the entire month—the pharmacist said I was lucky to get an appointment—I finally got my third booster and my flu shot. I still wear a mask whenever I’m around people, which is rare anyway. Quite a few fully vaxxed friends have contracted COVID-19 lately, mostly during travel, but none were seriously ill. I’d be perfectly happy with annual COVID and flu shots.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 1,307 new Covid-19 cases yesterday, for a cumulative reported total of 4,820,197 cases. It also reported five deaths for an adjusted cumulative total of 36,317 deaths – 0.75% of the cumulative reported total, 0.76% of resolved cases.
18,425 Covid-19 tests were conducted on 17th September, with a positivity rate of 7.0%.
There were 25,083 active cases yesterday, 528 fewer than the day before. 1,160 were in hospital. 55 confirmed cases were in ICU; of these patients, 36 confirmed cases were on ventilators. Meanwhile, 1,830 more patients recovered, for a cumulative total of 4,758,797 patients recovered – 98.7% of the cumulative reported total.
1,303 new cases reported yesterday were local infections. Four new cases were imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 1,514 doses of vaccine on 19th September: 101 first doses, 188 second doses, 468 first booster doses, and 757 second booster doses. The cumulative total is 72,325,297 doses administered: 28,099,106 first doses, 27,504,017 second doses, 16,229,809 first booster doses, and 492,365 second booster doses. 86.0% of the population have received their first dose, 84.2% their second dose, 49.7% their first booster dose, and 1.5% their second booster dose.
New Deal democrat
pajaro
Anne Laurie,
Thank you again for continuing to provide these posts.
Baud
I for one support Biden”s latest attempt to get more MAGA Republicans vaccinated.
germy shoemangler
@OzarkHillbilly:
Yesterday my wife and I went to a matinee showing of The Woman King.
We were the only two in the theater with masks. All employees and audience members were unmasked.
Which is why we only see matinees. I still can’t imagine sitting in a crowded theater.
Scout211
Another side effect of COVID for seniors: An association with a new diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease. Link.
Baud
@New Deal democrat:
Is that a typo? It doesn’t match the numbers you have above.
ETA: Unless those are worldwide numbers.
EthylEster
I would like to see an analysis of who is dying of Covid these days in the US. Is it still predominantly the olds? If someone knows where this analysis could be found, I would appreciate a link or a summary.
Amir Khalid
Is the pandemic over? It doesn’t yet feel that way to me. Social distancing here in Malaysia is clearly over. But most people are still masking up in public, even though it’s still required only on public transport and in crowded indoor spaces. I think people are used to it and feel safer with a mask on.
New Deal democrat
@Baud: 60,000 *confirmed* cases. BIobot’s wastewater levels suggest a much higher number of actual infections, on the order of 300,000/day.
Baud
@New Deal democrat:
Thanks.
Ken
I’m getting my third booster (the new bivalent one) this Saturday. I didn’t have much reaction to the first series or the first booster, but got a fever and body aches for the second booster, so I’m kind of wondering what will happen this time.
Soprano2
I watched that “60 Minutes” interview, and was surprised there weren’t hundreds of angry comments about that remark on this blog within a day. And yeah, lots of people seem to believe there will be an official announcement that the pandemic is over, when the truth is that it’s dictated more by how people behave than anything else. If this were the Black Death, which killed 50% of the people who contracted it (that’s what I’ve read, anyway) then I think people’s behavior would have been different, but people became exhausted by Covid measures (like everything being cancelled, kids not being in schools), especially after vaccines and boosters were available. It’s the truth whether people like it or not. I think some changes may become permanent – for example, in many hospitals visitors may continue to be required to wear face masks from now on.
Soprano2
@rikyrah: At this point if people aren’t vaccinated they probably aren’t going to get vaccinated.
Soprano2
@New Deal democrat: One thing that’s frustrating to me is that this has ALWAYS been true; there were always many “unconfirmed” cases due to the asymptomatic nature of Covid. As far as I know I’ve only had Covid once, in December 2020, but I could have had it three or four times with no symptoms! The only way to know is to constantly test, and we don’t have the infrastructure for that. I continue to believe that wastewater monitoring, while not perfect, is the best way to understand what the true level of Covid is in the general population.
YY_Sima Qian
As is often the case in China’s distributed authoritarian system, there can be all kinds of issues w/ local executions of policies promulgated from Beijing, whatever the merits of the policies. These issues are tend to be caused by variations in capacities for governance across the local jurisdictions, but underlying everything is the inadequate checks on local authorities, both institutionally from Beijing & from the population/media/independent judiciary (or the lack of such institutions in the latter case). They are the results of the pathologies in the Chinese system of governance under the CCP regime, & can be found in every aspect of life, including the execution of the “Dynamic Zero COVID” strategy.
Both domestic & international commentators have unsurprisingly focused on these failures to try to discredit the “Dynamic Zero COVID” policy itself, but such criticisms in this specific context are either disingenuous or misses the point IMHO. Ending the “Dynamic Zero COVID” policy will not solve the underlying pathologies in the Chinese political system; that will require structural/institutional reforms, & reform of the regime (up to & including regime change, which is so fraught w/ risks that few people inside or outside of China advocate for it). Instead, as I summarized in my guest post last week, ending “Dynamic Zero COVID” will result in a myriad of other kinds of stresses of Chinese polity/society/economy, which will inevitably produce other (& probably more) tragedies born of the same pathologies in the Chinese system of governance.
In this specific case of the bus accident in Guiyang, the local authorities made a series of decisions that ultimately led to the tragedy, decisions that they did not have to make under “Dynamic Zero COVID”:
If the Chinese government wants to sustain popular support & compliance of “Dynamic Zero COVID”, they need to:
However, I doubt the CCP regime will do any of the above, it does not deign to explain itself, certainly not the central leadership. 4. might be doable, but the Chinese government has abstained from such direct transfers to date.
satby
@New Deal democrat: ok. Wonder what the annual infection rate is for flu? Because hundreds of millions of people get sick from infectious disease in this country every year. There’s diminishing returns and outright backlash to contend with in trying to enforce covid restrictions on a mutated version that seems less deadly; and when the majority of the population, including vaccinated blue staters are not compliant what do you suggest?
Not arguing that it can’t be deadly to the unlucky who get infected, have comorbidities, or are unvaccinated and put themselves at greater risk. Our family lost a friend two weeks ago at age 93 to covid. But this has moved into an area where most of us have to manage risk on our own. It’s been that way all along, but a lot of us were willing to cooperate for the greater good, which helped.
Betsy
@OzarkHillbilly:
Agree.
I do wish that we still had a mask mandate in public enclosed spaces to put the screws on this thing for real.
After the air travel mask mandate was lifted, my folks (in their 80s) and I chose to drive a long trip to avoid flying. We were then unfortunately among the estimates excess thousand plus Americans who were injured in car wrecks due to avoidance of air travel.
We spent the entire summer in and out of ICU, hospitals, and rehab.
Now my folks, who are in their 80s, have additional frailties from the horrific wreck we suffered. We all had at least one collapsed lung. Dad was in the hospital for 75 days.
If either of them should get exposed, I just don’t know what could happen. We’re all boosted but still in vulnerable categories for severe illness.
If people would just wear a lightweight, non-burdensome, simple surgical mask in public places, my parents’ risk avoidance would not be so very isolating and burdensome.
All medical offices and clinics are still wearing surgical masks for everyone. Why can’t we just do this everywhere? It’s almost zero burden.
But as a society, “we” (“they”?) have decided that You’re On Your Own.
Scout211
@Soprano2: I had two procedures last week at outpatient surgery centers. In both cases, I saw zero reduction in COVID safety protocols. I even had to get a PCR test two days prior to one of the procedures. The other one only required a test if you weren’t vaccinated. But I did have to bring my vaccination card in for proof of vaccination.
I definitely hope that these safety protocols remain in place permanently. Communicable diseases are everywhere and these safety protocols are protection from all of them, not just from COVID.
But I do realize that I am preaching to the choir here on ballon-juice. LOL
Sure Lurkalot
@Ken: I got the new booster on Sunday, late afternoon. Weird dreams. Symptoms were mostly fatigue that got worse early evening Monday and a buzzy feeling. Slightly sore arm. Feeling about 90% this morning. So, not too bad for me and I hope you weather your shot well.
Betsy
@satby: My parents and I are now in that category. It really sucks. But our country’s unstated motto is, “I got mine, **** you.”
Mimi haha
@OzarkHillbilly:
YY_Sima Qian
@satby: Pretty sure 300K Americans do not get the flu every day, throughout the summer. Ending all mitigation measures will mean the elderly & the most vulnerable population will be infected 1 or 2 times a year, even if they are up to date on vaccines. These people tend to have weaker immuno-responses to vaccine shots, & whatever immunity (at least the antibodies) they do gain tend to wane more quickly. Omicron variants are just that infectious, & current vaccines are just that weak against infection.
Ksmiami
@Ken: I just got it and only side effects was soreness at injection site… My second Moderna vax caused me Vertigo so…
Matt McIrvin
@Soprano2: As far as I know I’ve NEVER had covid, and neither have my wife or kid, this despite us all engaging in lots of behavior that has definitely led to catching covid in others, vaccinated or not.
I have no idea why this is, but my best guess is, we did get infected once or twice but never showed substantial symptoms. I’ve got allergies to various things that make me exhibit low-level cold symptoms most of the time. I easily could have completely missed a mild cold-like infection at some point. And I’m so obsessively up to date on vaccination that I wouldn’t be surprised if it smashed the symptoms down to that.
Soprano2
@Betsy: What’s saddest is that in hindsight it would have been better to fly and wear the N-95 or K-95 masks, but of course hindsight is 20/20.
Matt McIrvin
@germy shoemangler: We’ve gone to multiple rock concerts with our N95s on; at most of these, almost nobody else in the crowd was masked.
The exception: They Might Be Giants at the Portsmouth Music Hall. In that case, the band had repeatedly requested on social media that the audience show up wearing N95 or KN95 masks. So I’d say that there, maybe 70% of the crowd was masked. Still a lot who weren’t. (The pictures from the Boston shows make it look like the masked fraction was higher there.)
Also, their Facebook posts on the subject always get angry, hectoring responses from anti-maskers who claim to be fans–most of whom, as TMBG’s John Flansburgh recently remarked, seem to just be right-wing trolls who search for mentions of masks and swoop in pretending to be fans. And his post about that got even more of that activity.
Matt McIrvin
@Soprano2: I recently looked up Massachusetts’ vaccination statistics report and was surprised to find that the modest burst in vaccinations after the bivalent boosters came out was not just boosters–there was also a corresponding burst of people getting their first shots (which, I think, are still NOT the bivalent vaccine, but the original wild-type COVID shots).
It’s not that many people, but they’re out there. Some of it might have been back-to-school activity with kids, but it started when the bivalent boosters landed.
Betsy
Betsy
@Soprano2: Thanks for pointing that out. If you notice, i included a recognition of that fact as part of my comment.
It’s been a summer of colossal regret and self-blame, especially as I would have done anything to protect the people I love, but instead I was part of making a terrible decision that harmed them and will continue to make their last years far more difficult and probably shorter.
It will probably shorten my life as well and has resulted in some disabilities that are undiagnosed and may never resolve.
This is the stuff people are forced into when a country’s mindset is warped by “your problem is your problem, I can’t be bothered in a minimally burdensome way to help”
gvg
One thing I have noticed around here, is that all the hospitals and doctors offices seem to still be requiring masks and saying excess people stay home. No sign they intend to ever go back to “normal”. I think they want it to stay like this forever for all the infectious reasons that were always out there and intend to make this the new normal. the dentists office too even though I have to take off the mask for treatment, they want us to keep them on all the rest of the time and are masked themselves. They still send the questions too, about have you been sick or feverish before a visit. They like this new normal IMO and I don’t blame them. supposedly covering your mouth and nose and washing hands came out of the great influenza time and wasn’t a thing before then. Social norms can be changed.
lowtechcyclist
@Scout211:
Which makes me ask: shouldn’t this mean there should be some way to test for one’s likelihood of developing Alzheimer’s down the road?
Having that info for my wife and myself would definitely feed into our retirement planning if we could get it.
(Of course I know you don’t know the answers, but I’d be tempted to try to email this guy to ask him if there are tests being developed, and if not, what’s the hangup.)
different-church-lady
I dunno if the pandemic is over, but it’s pretty clear the panicdemic is. And some people just ain’t gonna let go of it very well.
different-church-lady
@gvg: Doctor’s offices are filled with sick people.
cain
The GQP and the unvaccinated are going to suffer a lot. I wish we could reach them somehow. But if they want to marinate in conspiracies – then I guess so be it.
I’m planning on getting my next booster, but not till October. I’m going to have to take it on a friday. Most people seem to get sick over 48 hours.
I don’t wear masks as much as I used to – but still social distance and stay away from large gatherings. I went to a wedding and we didn’t get infected or anything – we wore masks on the flights.
Soprano2
@Betsy: It’s so hard these days to figure out what’s the best thing to do, I have a lot of sympathy for you. I totally understand why you did what you did. Didn’t mean to be snarky.
EthylEster
satby
@Betsy: You may not remember, but I work in a doctor’s office and had to fight daily for two years to get patients to wear masks there. Plus I have asthma, am almost 68, and am obese, so at slightly elevated risk myself. Here’s the thing: we can’t get even all the people at extreme risk to abide by covid restrictions, much less people at lesser risk. It’s not directed at us, it’s their assessment of their own personal risk, and people are bad at judging that. Ask any smoker or diabetic as they partake of something they shouldn’t. We have active misinformation and rebellion fomented by one political party and an ignorati that is starting to refuse ALL vaccines. You cannot enforce laws or mandates when most people ignore them. And trying helps undermine the government more.
Betsy
@Soprano2: Thanks for clarifying that. I appreciate it.
Text is tough because of not conveying tone accurately. And this is, obviously, a very tender subject for me.
Not to mention, the bullying and full-on armchair sociopathy showed by many commenters in recent days has me prepared for damn near any level of nastiness on thishyere blog.
Some of these people should be Republicans.
Ohio Mom
@Skepticat: Yup, almost all of the recent Covid cases in my circles caught it traveling by air. The exception is my cousin the nurse who is boosted and consistently masks. Someone has to be an outlier.
As I may have commented before, sometime in the first year of Covid, I read somewhere that “Infection is biology, a pandemic is sociology.” Haven’t seen anything yet that contradicts that observation.
StringOnAStick
@lowtechcyclist: There’s some risk to having a test to predict Alzheimers; do you really want insurance companies and long term care insurance providers to have that information about you? Or scammers that figure out how to insinuate into your life just as you start fading?
I know someone that is of the small percentage of ALS cases that are hereditary; in the last two generations of their family there have been 5 cases, all rapidly fatal. There is a genetic test for that and has been for about 10 years, but you want to make sure you get it from a provider who will NOT add that to your health information that an insurer can see. The person I know got the genetic test through the University that is doing deep work on the genetics of ALS, and her data is supposed to be protected from release to the outer world.
kalakal
JaneE
In a red area, compliance with anything was spotty at best, even when the daily stats were horrifying. People still have their “Choose Freedom not Fear” signs, and half the businesses in town are among them. Some I can avoid, others they are the only game in town. So, yeah, the pandemic is over. In the last month, people who managed to avoid it for two years are coming down with it, but they are just really sick, and only one was close to hospitalization. My bank and grocery store and some restaurants have “masks recommended”, but only the staff are wearing them, and not even all of them.
glc
I’m very interested in these posts as we try to understand what the next phase of this looks like.
Waiting on my booster as I expect to travel by plane later on, probably in January, and it sounds like there won’t be another for quite a while. Thinking about a shot for Nov. 1.
Bill Arnold
@New Deal democrat:
I think of it as if, functionally, stroke were largely caused by a pandemic highly-transmissible respiratory virus. The current COVID-19 numbers for death are similar, and maybe similar for disability. (Most people would get vaccinated and wear a effective mask if this (about stroke) were literally true.)
The pandemic was functionally over briefly in the US in approximately July 2021. It was nice to take masks of that month.
Delta, which was essentially a new virus due to a combination of some immune escape and higher R, combined with an ill-considered rapid relaxation of NPIs, had not yet spread widely in the US. In my area, COVID positive PCR tests been at 20+/5 times times that July 2021 level for the past 5 months. (And cases are undercounted a factor of roughly 5-10)
Raven Onthill
I did a bit of computation and, well:
Yeah, in context Biden’s remark was not so bad, but it was a gaffe, and the pro-plague faction is trumpeting it from the rooftops.
Remember that the unvaccinated spread the disease and each infection is another chance of mutation.
Another Scott
@Scout211: Made me look. IANAMD. My MIL had Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s.
This is the journal article in question. Take a look at the last line in Figure 1- Hispanics.
In the “Matched Cohort” that had COVID-19: 0.47% (128/27,229)
In the “Matched Cohort” without COVID-19: 0.41% (112/27,265)
That, perhaps naively, looks like a tiny difference to me, especially (as they point out) the issues with diagnosis, etc. Yet they give it a HR (Hazard Ratio) of 1.25 (95% CI of 0.97-1.61)
Are Hispanics really different from the other groups that had higher HRs? How are “Hispanics” defined in this study? The Supplementary Material says the database uses self-reported values for Hispanic/not-Hispanic/Unknown ethnicity. Where does the “Unknown” ethnic group fit in the table? It’s not shown. They’re a big group (24.4%). The web page for the paper doesn’t say.
I’m sure these folks are experts in what they do and they want their work to be correct. But, personally, I think the press makes far too much of these X is associated with Y studies when the studies cannot say anything about whether the relationship is meaningful and if so in what way.
Yes, viruses may be involved in Alzheimer’s. Yes, continued study of Alzheimer’s and effects of COVID infection are important. But…
Bodies are complicated.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
YY_Sima Qian
On 9/20 Mainland China reported 123 new domestic confirmed (18 previously asymptomatic), 485 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 0 new domestic suspect cases, & 0 new deaths.
Guangdong Province reported 3 new domestic confirmed (2 at Shenzhen & 1 at Qingyuan) & 2 new domestic asymptomatic (1 each at Guangzhou & Qingyuan) cases, all persons under centralized quarantine. 45 domestic confirmed & 19 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 168 active domestic confirmed & 85 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot traced the active domestic cases in each jurisdictions due to multiple clusters at the same time. 2 sites at Shenzhen & 1 at Dongguan are currently at High Risk. 6 sites at Shenzhen, 2 at Dongguan, & 1 at Jiangmen are currently at Medium Risk.
Guangxi “Autonomous” Region reported 10 new domestic asymptomatic (5 each at Baise & Fangchenggang) cases. 5 domestic confirmed & 68 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 51 active domestic confirmed (41 at Fangchenggang & 10 at Wuzhou) & 490 active domestic asymptomatic (426 at Fangchenggang, 30 at Chongzuo, 15 at Wuzhou, 13 at Yulin, & 6 at Baise) cases in the region. 4 sites at Fangchenggang are currently at High Risk, & 6 at Medium Risk.
Hainan Province reported 2 domestic confirmed (both at Wanning) cases, a person under centralized quarantine & a pandemic response worker living in “closed loop”. 64 domestic confirmed & 42 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 631 active domestic confirmed & 1,116 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot traced the active domestic cases in each jurisdictions due to multiple outbreaks at the same time. 15 sites at Wanning & 2 at Sanya are currently at High Risk. 10 sites at Wanning & 4 at Sanya are currently at Medium Risk.
Hunan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 9 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not separate recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases at the different jurisdictions, due to the simultaneous outbreaks in different locations.
Hubei Province reported 9 new domestic asymptomatic (all at Laifeng County in Enshi Prefecture) cases. The cases at Ezhou were found via community screening, a family cluster. 20 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed (1 each at Wuhan & Enshi Prefecture) & 300 active domestic asymptomatic (272 at Enshi Prefecture, 13 at Wuhan, 6 at Xiaogan, 4 at Ezhou, 3 at Suizhou, & 2 at Jingzhou) cases in the city. 7 sites at Enshi Prefecture are currently at High Risk, & 31 at Medium Risk.
At Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region 1 domestic confirmed & 9 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 238 active domestic confirmed & 268 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the region.
Gansu Province reported 5 new domestic asymptomatic (4 at Wudu in Longnan & 1 at Anning District in Lanzhou) cases, all persons coming from out of province & under centralized quarantine since arrival. 11 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 3 active domestic confirmed & 131 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not separate recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases at the different jurisdictions, due to the simultaneous outbreaks in different locations. 5 sites at Linxia Prefecture & 3 at Jiuquan are currently at High Risk. 7 sites at Linxia Prefecture, 6 at Longnan, & 4 at Jiuquan are currently at Medium Risk.
At Shanxi Province 2 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 3 active domestic confirmed (2 at Taiyuan & 1 at Jincheng) & 2 active domestic asymptomatic (both at Taiyuan) cases in the province.
Shaanxi Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic (at Weinan) case, a person coming from out of province & tested positive upon arrival. 6 domestic confirmed & 16 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 31 active domestic confirmed & 163 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot traced the active domestic cases in each jurisdictions due to multiple outbreaks at the same time. 21 sites at Baoji & 4 at Shangluo are currently at Medium Risk.
Zhongning County in Zhongwei, Ningxia “Autonomous” Region reported 4 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all found via community screening. 5 sites are currently at High Risk, & at Medium Risk.
Xinjiang “Autonomous” Region reported 11 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 31 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 274 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the region. As the province no longer separates recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases at the different jurisdictions, due to the simultaneous outbreaks in different locations.
Shandong Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 9 domestic confirmed & 46 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 69 active domestic confirmed & 392 domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Hebei Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic (at Yuanshi County in Shijiazhuang) case, a traced traced close contact of domestic positive cases elsewhere & under centralized quarantine. 1 asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 3 domestic confirmed & 50 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot traced the active domestic cases in each jurisdictions due to multiple outbreaks at the same time. 6 sites at Tangshan, 3 at Shijiazhuang, & 1 at Baoding are currently High Risk. 13 sites at Baoding, 5 each at Chengde & Tangshan, 2 at Shijiazhuang, & 1 at Langfang are currently at Medium Risk.
Henan Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed (previously asymptomatic) & 8 new domestic asymptomatic (4 at Xinxiang, 2 at Shenqiu County in Zhoukou, 1 at Zhengzhou, & a person transferred from out of province) cases. 3 of the cases at Xinxiang are persons under centralized quarantine, & 1 via community screening. The cases at Zhoukou are persons under centralized quarantine. The case at Zhengzhou was found via regular screening of persons in high risk occupations. 2 domestic confirmed & 14 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 6 active domestic confirmed & 64 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province no longer separates recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases at the different jurisdictions, due to the simultaneous outbreaks in different locations. 3 sites at Zhoukou are currently at Medium Risk.
At Liaoning Province 7 domestic confirmed & 83 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 29 active domestic confirmed & 440 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not separate recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases at the different jurisdictions, due to the simultaneous outbreaks in different locations. 1 site at Shenyang is currently at High Risk, & 7 at Medium Risk.
At Changchun in Jilin Province 4 domestic confirmed & 14 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 8 active domestic confirmed & 107 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
Heilongjiang Province reported 9 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic, 8 at Xiangyang District in Jiamusi & 1 at Xiangfang District in Harbin) & 102 new domestic asymptomatic (92 at Jiamusi, 8 at Aihui District in Heihe, & 2 at Longfeng District in Daqing,) cases. 1 of the cases at Jiamusi was previously asymptomatic, & the new domestic positive cases are traced close contacts under home/centralized quarantine. The cases at Heihe were found via community screening. 213 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The cases at Daqing are persons under centralized quarantine. There currently are 29 active domestic confirmed (16 at Daqing, 11 at Jiamusi, & 1 each at Harbin & Heihe) & 621 active domestic asymptomatic (445 at Daqing, 136 at Jiamusi, 34 at Heihe, 6 at Suihua) cases in the province. 86 sites at Jiamusi, 3 at Daqing, 2 at Heihe, & 1 at Harbin are currently at High Risk. 19 sites at Daqing, 60 at Jiamusi, 8 at Heihe, & 2 at Harbin are currently at Medium Risk.
At Beijing Municipality 4 domestic confirmed cases recovered. The municipality is not publishing the count of active domestic positive cases there. 4 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
Tianjin Municipality reported 3 new domestic confirmed & 8 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 10 persons under centralized quarantine & 1 via community screening. 2 domestic confirmed & 12 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The municipality is not publishing the count of active domestic positive cases there. 45 sites are currently at High Risk, & 52 at Medium Risk.
Shanghai Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. 2 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed in the city. The city is no longer publishing the number of active asymptomatic cases. 2 sites are currently at High Risk, & 1 at Medium Risk.
At Anhui Province 2 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 4 active domestic asymptomatic (2 at Anqing & 1 each at Chuzhou & Xuancheng) cases in the city.
At Jiangsu Province 1 domestic confirmed & 2 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 3 active domestic confirmed & 4 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not separate recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases at the different jurisdictions, due to the simultaneous outbreaks in different locations.
Zhejiang Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases, both at Wenzhou, a person under centralized quarantine & a person coming from elsewhere testing positive upon arrival. As the province does not break down recoveries by imported & domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there. 1 site at Wenzhou is currently at Medium Risk.
At Fujian Province 2 domestic asymptomatic case recovered. There currently are 8 active domestic confirmed & 20 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining. As the province does not separate recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases at the different jurisdictions, due to the simultaneous outbreaks in different locations. 2 sites at Xiamen are currently at Medium Risk.
Jiangxi Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic (Yongfeng County in Ji’an) case. 1 domestic confirmed & 71 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 10 active domestic confirmed (8 at Ji’an & 2 at Yingtan) & 428 active domestic asymptomatic (330 at Ji’an, 87 Ganzhou, 10 at Yingtan, & 1 at Jiujiang) cases in the province. 73 sites at Ji’an & 21 at Ganzhou are currently at High Risk. 44 at Ji’an & 46 at Ganzhou are currently at Medium Risk.
Sichuan Province reported 28 new domestic confirmed (6 previously asymptomatic) & 27 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 86 domestic confirmed & 67 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. As the province had not broken down recoveries by imported & domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there.
Chongqing Municipality did not report any new domestic positive. 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 13 active domestic confirmed & 6 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 4 sites are currently at High Risk, & 6 at Medium Risk.
Guizhou Province reported 57 new domestic confirmed (9 previously asymptomatic) & 131 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 672 of whom are backlogs — persons who had already tested positive & have been under medical isolation. 1 domestic confirmed & 43 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 198 active domestic confirmed & 2,575 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Qinghai Province reported 5 new domestic asymptomatic (2 each at Haidong & Haixi Prefecture, & 1 at Huangnan Prefecture) cases. The case at Huangnan Prefecture came from Lhasa in Tibet on 9/18 & under centralized quarantine since. The cases at Haixi Prefecture are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. 4 domestic confirmed & 11 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 12 active domestic confirmed & 478 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the region. As the province does not break down recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot traced the active domestic cases in each jurisdictions due to multiple outbreaks at the same time. 1 site at Haixi Prefecture is currently at High Risk, & 3 at Medium Risk.
Tibet “Autonomous” Region reported 13 new domestic confirmed & 155 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all persons under centralized quarantine or via screening of residents under movement control. 31 domestic confirmed & 1,129 asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 155 active domestic confirmed & 2,941 active domestic asymptomatic cases. The region is not breaking the counts of active domestic positive cases by administrative region.
Yunnan Province reported 5 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic) & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, Yongsheng County in Lijiang, all new domestic positive cases are persons coming from out of province & under centralized quarantine since arrival. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 21 active domestic confirmed & 30 active domestic asymptomatic cases there. As the province does not break down recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot traced the active domestic cases in each jurisdictions due to multiple outbreaks at the same time. 2 sites at Dehong Prefecture are currently at High Risk, & 4 at Medium Risk.
Imported Cases
On 9/20, Mainland China reported 43 new imported confirmed cases (5 previously asymptomatic), 96 imported asymptomatic cases, 0 imported suspect cases:
Overall in Mainland China, 327 confirmed cases recovered (49 imported), 2,048 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (102 imported) & 23 were reclassified as confirmed cases (5 imported), & 23,767 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 3,297 active confirmed cases in the country (571 imported), 42 in serious/critical condition (all domestic), 15,528 active asymptomatic cases (766 imported), 0 suspect cases. 157,786 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 9/20, 3,435.577M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 370K doses in the past 24 hrs.
As of 9/20, Hong Kong reported 5,687 new positive cases, 146 imported & 5,541 domestic, & 9 new deaths.
On 9/20, Taiwan added 46,902 new positive cases, 229 imported & 46,673 domestic (including 207 moderate or serious). There were 39 new deaths (ages ranging from < 5 y.o. to 90+ y.o., actual dates of death range from 9/8 to 9/18, 37 w/ underlying conditions, 15 fully vaccinated & boosted).
YY_Sima Qian
On 9/21 Mainland China reported 114 new domestic confirmed (23 previously asymptomatic), 512 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 0 new domestic suspect cases, & 0 new deaths.
Guangdong Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed (previously asymptomatic, at Qingyuan) & 2 new domestic asymptomatic (both at Guangzhou) cases, 1 of the new domestic positive cases is a traced close contact under centralized quarantine, & the other is a person under at home health monitoring. 24 domestic confirmed & 13 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 145 active domestic confirmed & 73 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot traced the active domestic cases in each jurisdictions due to multiple clusters at the same time. 2 sites at Shenzhen are currently at High Risk. 6 sites at Shenzhen & 2 at Dongguan are currently at Medium Risk.
Guangxi “Autonomous” Region reported 15 new domestic asymptomatic (9 at Napo County in Baise & 6 at Fangchenggang) cases. 7 domestic confirmed & 80 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 44 active domestic confirmed (36 at Fangchenggang & 8 at Wuzhou) & 425 active domestic asymptomatic (355 at Fangchenggang, 30 at Chongzuo, 14 at Baise, & 13 each at Wuzhou & Yulin) cases in the region. 4 sites at Fangchenggang are currently at High Risk, & 6 at Medium Risk.
Hainan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 10 domestic confirmed & 14 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 621 active domestic confirmed & 1,102 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot traced the active domestic cases in each jurisdictions due to multiple outbreaks at the same time. 16 sites at Wanning & 2 at Sanya are currently at High Risk. 10 sites at Wanning & 2 at Sanya are currently at Medium Risk.
At Hunan Province there currently are 9 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not separate recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases at the different jurisdictions, due to the simultaneous outbreaks in different locations.
Hubei Province reported 19 new domestic asymptomatic (16 at Laifeng County in Enshi Prefecture, 2 at Wuhan, & 1 at Xiangyang) cases. 26 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The cases at Wuhan are traced close contacts of domestic positive cases elsewhere. The case at Xiangyang is a person under centralized quarantine. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed (1 each at Wuhan & Enshi Prefecture) & 293 active domestic asymptomatic (268 at Enshi Prefecture, 11 at Wuhan, 5 at Xiaogan, 4 at Ezhou, 3 at Suizhou, & 1 each at Jingzhou & Xiangyang) cases in the city. 23 sites at Enshi Prefecture are currently at Medium Risk.
At Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region 6 domestic confirmed & 4 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 232 active domestic confirmed & 264 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the region.
Gansu Province reported 3 new domestic asymptomatic (all at Anning District in Lanzhou) cases, all persons coming from out of province & under centralized quarantine since arrival. 1 domestic confirmed & 12 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 122 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not separate recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases at the different jurisdictions, due to the simultaneous outbreaks in different locations. 5 sites at Linxia Prefecture & 3 at Jiuquan are currently at High Risk. 7 sites at Linxia Prefecture & 4 each at Jiuquan & Longnan are currently at Medium Risk.
At Shanxi Province there currently are 3 active domestic confirmed (2 at Taiyuan & 1 at Jincheng) & 2 active domestic asymptomatic (both at Taiyuan) cases in the province.
Shaanxi Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 1 domestic asymptomatic case recovered. There currently are 31 active domestic confirmed & 162 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot traced the active domestic cases in each jurisdictions due to multiple outbreaks at the same time. 2 sites at Baoji & 1 at Shangluo are currently at Medium Risk.
Ningxia “Autonomous” Region reported 4 new domestic confirmed (2 at Zhongwei & 1 each at Wuzhong & Yichuan) & 15 new domestic asymptomatic (8 at Zhongwei, 3 at Wuzhong, & 2 each at Guyuan & Yinchuan) cases, all but 1 of the cases had frequented an exchange for Chinese wolfberries at Zhongning County in Zhongwei since 9/17, which appears to be a super spreading event. 1 case at Wuzhong is a truck driver coming from out of province & tested positive upon arrival. There currently are 4 active domestic confirmed & 19 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 5 sites are currently at High Risk, & 1 at Medium Risk.
Xinjiang “Autonomous” Region reported 9 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 33 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 250 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the region. As the province no longer separates recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases at the different jurisdictions, due to the simultaneous outbreaks in different locations.
Shandong Province reported 4 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 4 domestic confirmed & 32 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 65 active domestic confirmed & 364 domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Hebei Province reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic (both at Yuhua District in Shijiazhuang) case, both persons under centralized quarantine. 2 asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 3 domestic confirmed & 50 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot traced the active domestic cases in each jurisdictions due to multiple outbreaks at the same time. 6 sites at Tangshan & 1 at Shijiazhuang are currently High Risk. 5 sites each at Shijiazhuang & Tangshan, 4 at Chengde, 2 at Baoding, & 1 at Langfang are currently at Medium Risk.
Henan Province reported 3 new domestic confirmed (all at Erqi District in Zhengzhou) & 6 new domestic asymptomatic (2 at Longhua District in Puyang, 1 at Shihe District in Xinyang, & 3 persons transferred from out of province) cases. The cases at Zhengzhou are persons under centralized quarantine. The cases at Puyang are persons coming from Tianjin & under centralized quarantine since arrival. The case at Xinyang was found via community screening. 8 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 9 active domestic confirmed & 62 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province no longer separates recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases at the different jurisdictions, due to the simultaneous outbreaks in different locations. 3 sites at Zhoukou are currently at Medium Risk.
At Liaoning Province 7 domestic confirmed & 82 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 22 active domestic confirmed & 358 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not separate recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases at the different jurisdictions, due to the simultaneous outbreaks in different locations. 3 sites at Shenyang is currently at Medium Risk.
At Changchun in Jilin Province 2 domestic confirmed & 8 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 6 active domestic confirmed & 99 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
Heilongjiang Province reported 7 new domestic confirmed (3 at Xiangyang District in Jiamusi & 4 at Xiangfang District in Harbin) & 109 new domestic asymptomatic (74 at Jiamusi, 32 at Aihui District in Heihe, 2 at Xiangfang District in Harbin, & 1 at Longfeng District in Daqing) cases. 75 of the cases at Jiamusi are persons under home/centralized quarantine & 2 via screening of residents in Medium/High Risk areas. 7 of the cases at Heihe are persons under centralized quarantine & 25 via community screening. The cases at Harbin & Daqing are persons under centralized quarantine. 7 domestic confirmed & 110 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The cases at Daqing are persons under centralized quarantine. There currently are 29 active domestic confirmed (14 at Jiamusi, 9 at Daqing, 5 at Harbin, & 1 at Heihe) & 620 active domestic asymptomatic (343 at Daqing, 210 at Jiamusi, 65 at Heihe, & 2 at Harbin) cases in the province. 86 sites at Jiamusi, 33 at Heihe, 7 at Harbin, & 2 at Daqing are currently at High Risk. 60 sites at Jiamusi, 38 at Heihe, 14 at Daqing, & 6 at Harbin are currently at Medium Risk.
At Beijing Municipality 6 domestic confirmed cases recovered. The municipality is not publishing the count of active domestic positive cases there. 3 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
Tianjin Municipality reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 10 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 10 persons under centralized quarantine & 1 via community screening. 1 domestic confirmed & 12 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The municipality is not publishing the count of active domestic positive cases there. 34 sites are currently at High Risk, & 55 at Medium Risk.
Shanghai Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. 2 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed in the city. The city is no longer publishing the number of active asymptomatic cases. 2 sites are currently at High Risk, & 1 at Medium Risk.
At Anhui Province the last 4 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered.
Jiangsu Province reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic (both at Nantong) cases, both recent arrivals from out of province & tested positive during at home health monitoring. There currently are 3 active domestic confirmed & 6 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not separate recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases at the different jurisdictions, due to the simultaneous outbreaks in different locations. 9 sites at Nantong are currently at Medium Risk.
Zhejiang Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed (previously asymptomatic) case. 1 domestic confirmed & 1 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. As the province does not break down recoveries by imported & domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there. 1 site at Wenzhou is currently at Medium Risk.
Fujian Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed (at Xiamen) case, a pandemic response worker living in “closed loop”. 1 domestic confirmed & 3 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 8 active domestic confirmed & 17 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining. As the province does not separate recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases at the different jurisdictions, due to the simultaneous outbreaks in different locations. 1 site at Xiamen are currently at Medium Risk.
Jiangxi Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 1 domestic confirmed & 34 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 9 active domestic confirmed (7 at Ji’an & 2 at Yingtan) & 394 active domestic asymptomatic (309 at Ji’an, 75 Ganzhou, 9 at Yingtan, & 1 at Jiujiang) cases in the province. 27 sites at Ji’an & 19 at Ganzhou are currently at High Risk. 44 at Ji’an & 39 at Ganzhou are currently at Medium Risk.
Sichuan Province reported 41 new domestic confirmed (18 previously asymptomatic) & 26 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 113 domestic confirmed & 56 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. As the province had not broken down recoveries by imported & domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there.
Chongqing Municipality reported 5 new domestic asymptomatic (3 at Changshou District & 1 each at Dadukou District & Fengdu County) cases. 3 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 10 active domestic confirmed & 11 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 4 sites are currently at High Risk, & 6 at Medium Risk.
Guizhou Province reported 42 new domestic confirmed (3 previously asymptomatic) & 134 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 9 domestic confirmed & 148 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 231 active domestic confirmed & 2,558 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Qinghai Province reported 5 new domestic asymptomatic (all at Haixi Prefecture) cases, all traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. 4 domestic confirmed & 5 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 8 active domestic confirmed & 478 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the region. As the province does not break down recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot traced the active domestic cases in each jurisdictions due to multiple outbreaks at the same time. 1 site at Haixi Prefecture is currently at High Risk, & 3 at Medium Risk.
Tibet “Autonomous” Region reported 13 new domestic confirmed & 143 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all persons under centralized quarantine or via screening of residents under movement control. 27 domestic confirmed & 513 asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 141 active domestic confirmed & 2,571 active domestic asymptomatic cases. The region is not breaking the counts of active domestic positive cases by administrative region.
Yunnan Province reported 3 new domestic asymptomatic (1 each at Ruili in Dehong Prefecture, Jinping County in Honghe Prefecture & Zhenkang County in Lincang) cases. The cases at Dehong & Honghe Prefectures were found via regular screening of residents in border communities The case at Lincang was found at fever clinic. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 20 active domestic confirmed & 33 active domestic asymptomatic cases there. As the province does not break down recoveries by jurisdictions, I cannot traced the active domestic cases in each jurisdictions due to multiple outbreaks at the same time. 4 sites at Honghe Prefecture, 2 at Dehong Prefecture, & 1 at Lincang are currently at High Risk. 4 sites at at Dehong Prefecture, 3 at Honghe Prefecture, & 2 at Lincang are currently at Medium Risk.
Imported Cases
On 9/21, Mainland China reported 51 new imported confirmed cases (8 previously asymptomatic), 98 imported asymptomatic cases, 0 imported suspect cases:
Overall in Mainland China, 279 confirmed cases recovered (45 imported), 1,331 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (90 imported) & 31 were reclassified as confirmed cases (8 imported), & 21,232 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 3,183 active confirmed cases in the country (577 imported), 35 in serious/critical condition (all domestic), 14,776 active asymptomatic cases (766 imported), 0 suspect cases. 151,003 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 9/21, 3,435.719M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 142K doses in the past 24 hrs.
As of 9/21, Hong Kong reported 5,990 new positive cases, 163 imported & 5,827 domestic, & 17 new deaths (55 – 99 y.o., 12 un-boosted).
On 9/21, Taiwan added 42,470 new positive cases, 258 imported & 42,212 domestic (including 217 moderate & 58 serious). There were 59 new deaths (ages ranging from 30+ y.o. to 90+ y.o., actual dates of death range from 6/7 to 9/19, 52 w/ underlying conditions, 10 fully vaccinated & boosted).