Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

The rest of the comments were smacking Boebert like she was a piñata.

Shut up, hissy kitty!

Everybody saw this coming.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

“I was told there would be no fact checking.”

Not loving this new fraud based economy.

The republican caucus is covering themselves with something, and it is not glory.

Oppose, oppose, oppose. do not congratulate. this is not business as usual.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. keep building.

“Until such time as the world ends, we will act as though it intends to spin on.”

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

We’re watching the self-immolation of the leading world power on a level unprecedented in human history.

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

Wake up. Grow up. Get in the fight.

Hot air and ill-informed banter

Stamping your little feets and demanding that they see how important you are? Not working anymore.

Innocent people do not delay justice.

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

You are here: Home / Political Fundraising / Targeted Political Fundraising Fall 2022 / Winnable House Races in Purple Districts (NV-01, NV-03, NV-04)

Winnable House Races in Purple Districts (NV-01, NV-03, NV-04)

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There have been a lot of great nominations for who to add to our Winnable House Races in Purple Districts thermometer.

From the previous post:

There were some great candidates that I haven’t added because they seem to be in good shape financially and I’m thinking that our funding wouldn’t make a difference.  So let’s stick with this 10; I think we’re gonna call it quits on adding any new people for awhile.

Lest we spread ourselves too thin… if there’s someone who really should be added, we will need to take someone off.

I was listening to David Plouffe on Pod Save America this morning, where Plouffe talked about how important Nevada is, both for executive offices like governor and secretary of state, but also because there are 3 toss-up House races in Nevada this time around.

So… what do you guys know about the candidates and the races in NV-01, NV-03 and NV-04?

Unless you customize the amounts, donations to this thermometer will now be split 10 ways.

Marcy Kaptur  (OH-09)
Sharice Davids  (KS-03)
Gabe Vasquez  (NM-02)
Elaine Luria  (VA-02)
Susan Wild (PA-07)
Josh Riley  (NY-19)
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez  (WA-03)
Eric Sorenson  (IL-17)
Tony Vargas  (NE-02)
Yadira Caraveo  (CO-08)

 Winnable House Races Purple Districts

If you want to learn more about the folks on the list, click on the Targeted Political Fundraising Fall 2022 tag up top and check out some of the other posts in this series.

Here’s where we’re at right now:
Winnable House Races in Purple Districts (NV-01, NV-03, NV-04)

Reminder: all of the targeted fundraising thermometers for this fall are in the sidebar, and also at the link below.  Besides this one, there are thermometers for the AZ Executives (Firewall) and one for Charlie Crist so we can give DeSantis the boot, and make him a one-term governor and a zero-term president!

All Targeted Fundraising Thermometers

Totally open thread!

Reader Interactions

43Comments

  2. 2.

    WaterGirl

    @jnfr:  Thank you!

    Not surprisingly, the people who were on the list early (the starting 4) are doing much better than the folks who have been added as we go along

    I would love to get all 10 to at least $3,500 each, and then move on to the key Attorneys General and Secretaries of State races.

  3. 3.

    Another Scott

    Also on the ballot in Nevada – BoltsMag.org – Nevada Ranked Choice Voting:

    […]

    Even small changes could tilt the balance of power in Nevada, a Democratic-controlled battleground state that was led by a Republican governor, legislature, and U.S. Senator as recently as 2016. However, neither the political dynamics nor the arguments against ranked choice voting are unique to Nevada.

    Whether it’s Democrats or Republicans, the political establishment often fights RCV, and they tend to offer the same justifications: it’s confusing, potentially discriminatory, and, especially after Alaska’s recent experience with ranked choice voting, unfair.

    These criticisms are especially pressing as RCV grows. In 2010, only eight major cities used ranked choice. As of July 2022, it’s used in two states, one county, and 53 cities, which are home to over 11 million voters, according to FairVote, a nonprofit advocating for RCV nationwide.

    This November, nine other jurisdictions have an RCV initiative on the ballot. Nevada is the only one that includes open primaries as well, but two others—Portland, Oregon and Portland, Maine—would implement RCV on top of proportional representation, which is a “silver bullet toward gerrymandering,” says Deb Otis, director of research at FairVote, which advocates for ranked choice voting.

    […]

    Critics like Sisolak argue that the ranking process is confusing for voters, especially voters of color, although at least one study suggests little difference in how racial and ethnic groups understand the process. Otis argues that RCV can prevent the kind of vote dilution that can obstruct candidates of color. She points to the recent Democratic congressional primary in Detroit, which is 80 percent Black. There were nine candidates running, and after voters split their votes between multiple Black contenders, a non-Black candidate won with around 28 percent of the vote. Now, Detroit will likely not have Black representation in Congress for the first time since the early 1950s.

    “Once they get to know the candidate field, people tend to know, ‘Oh, I like these three,’ ‘I’d be ok with these three,’ and ‘I really don’t want these three,’” she says. “But we’re locked into a ballot style where we cannot express that.”

    […]

    FairVote =/= FairFight (Stacy Abrams’ group)

    An interesting read.

    In general, I’m of the view that anything that makes candidates appeal to a broad constituency is a good thing, as in office they should be working for the whole constituency. I don’t have a strong opinion about the details of ranked-choice vs other systems.

    Fingers crossed in Nevada!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  4. 4.

    Citizen Alan

    How could ranked choice voting allow someone to win with 28% of the vote? I thought the whole point of the damned thing was to eliminate the lowest Vote getters until someone got 50% or more.

  5. 5.

    Another Scott

    @Citizen Alan: RCV would have prevented the Detroit result.  It was an example of a complex election with the existing system that gave a bad/unexpected result.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  6. 6.

    WaterGirl

    @Citizen Alan: I don’t follow ranked choice voting closely enough to know how the details work, but I sort of have the impression that there isn’t just one system for ranked choice voting.

    In my imagination, someone who got 28% of the #1 votes, but was everybody’s 2nd choice could probably win if no one liked any of the other choices.  But I have no idea if that’s the case.

    I am trying out the suggestion from reddit that the best way to tell you how something works is to say something that is incorrect. :-)

  8. 8.

    middlelee

    NV district 01 has a good strong Democrat  whose been there for several sessions.  Dina Titus is a friend of a politician (and close friend) I worked for when my friend ran for Congress.  I sent my friend a text about 03 and 04 and will phone her if I don’t hear from her right away.

    My friend ran in district 02 from Douglas County, home of RWNJs from dogcatcher to congressman and of course she lost but she made the Republican spend lots of money and work very hard. And her numbers were not too bad.

    The school board has been taken over by people fighting against CRT being taught to first graders, among other things. The sheriff ran off the library director who had the temerity to support Black Lives Matter in the mission statement.  He actually invited in the white supremacists and one Saturday they took over the park and marched all over the town of Minden brandishing their  assault weapons.  The Douglas County commissioners went viral on Twitter after two of them had a fist fight during a meeting.  Douglas County politics is one of the reasons I’m so happy living in California. God I’m getting angry all over again just thinking about those fucking ignorant MAGAts.

    All the other counties in 02 are just as awful.  I know you didn’t ask about 02 but I needed to vent.

    Many Nevada residents everywhere but Las Vegas moved to Nevada because they hate California with its regulations and Democrats.

  9. 9.

    WaterGirl

    @middlelee: Yeah I didn’t include NV-02 because it isn’t a toss-up.

    So why is NV-01 a toss-up if that person is an incumbent?

    And yay for checking in on the other two with someone knowledgable.  I look forward to hearing what they say.

  10. 10.

    evap

    I’m a mathematician with a side interest (apart from my main research area) in the math of voting.  No voting method is perfect if there are more than two candidates — this statement made more precise is a mathematical theorem proven by economist Kenneth Arrow in the 1950’s — but RCV has fewer problems than plurality (the one with the most votes wins) and is generally a fairer method.   In a case like the Detroit election where there are a lot of candidates and voters tend to be okay with more than one, RCV is the way to go.

  11. 11.

    Geminid

    @WaterGirl: I think the new Nevada 1st Congressional District was drawn to have more Republicans than it used to. Representative Titus did not like the new map one bit, and said so very bluntly.

    Titus had a Justice Democrats-backed primary challenger, Emily Villela. She was one of the four women featured in the 2019 documentary “Knock Down the House.” Another was Cori Bush, who went on to win a Saint Louis seat in 2020. Bush and Nina Turner campaigned with Villela in Las Vegas. They did not seem to help Villela very much; Titus crushed her in the primary.

  12. 12.

    Cameron

    I think approval voting works better than RCV and is both easier and cheaper to implement.  See Center for Election Science for more info. (Sorry, I have a big thing for approval voting.)

  13. 13.

    H.E.Wolf

    https://www.dinatitus.com/
    [Annoying pop-up ad that one has to banish before reading]
    Highlights:
    -Greek-American heritage
    -PhD, Political Science; taught for 34 years at University of Nevada Las Vegas
    – advocate for persons with disabilities [wording is from her campaign website]
    – expertise, including book authorship, in the history of/policies related to nuclear power, weaponry, and waste [maybe Cheryl can speak to this?]

    Rep. Titus is supported by EMILY’s List, which means she’s pro-choice.

  14. 14.

    Kent

    Here is an excellent short video profile of Marie Glusenkamp Perez:  https://twitter.com/MorePerfectUS/status/1574456088719757332

    And the tweet itself, click through for the video: 

    NEW: This is the most important under-the-radar congressional race in 2022.Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a working class auto shop owner, is taking on a white-nationalist sympathizer in rural Washington.An unconventional approach has her on the verge of a stunning upset. pic.twitter.com/hBKesMd4pw— More Perfect Union (@MorePerfectUS) September 26, 2022

  16. 16.

    Geminid

    @evap: It seems like more and more candidates are running these days. Some can win with pluralities of 30% or less, so I think we are going to need either runoffs or ranked choice voting. I like runoffs myself, but people like quick and easy solutions. Ranked choice voting fits the bill and is probably the coming thing.

    Alaska’s new system interests me. They had open, “jungle primaries,” and the top four finishers advance to ranked-choice runoffs in November. The system was passed in a close referendum.

    Mary Peltola won her race to fill the remainder of the late Don Young’s term in an open, ranked choice special election, with over 10 other candidates.

  17. 17.

    WaterGirl

    @Geminid: So NV-01 looks important.  IF we lose, we don’t miss a pickup opportunity, we lose an existing seat.

    I would love to know whether more $$ would help or if she has plenty of money, and more money won’t make a difference.

  18. 18.

    WaterGirl

    @Kent: Thanks for that information!  Looks like Marie could use some love, she is at only $1,200.

    edit:  I am starting to care about some of the candidates, not just as wins/seats but they are good.

  19. 19.

    WaterGirl

    Question:  Should we remove any of these candidates if/when they reach $5,000?  So new funds help bump up the rest?

    Great idea?  Terrible idea?

  20. 20.

    Cameron

    @WaterGirl: Basically, voters vote for as many or as few candidates as they want, no ranking or rating. Candidate with the most votes wins. Lots of explanation at the CES website.  Largest place using it that I know of is St. Louis.  I like it well enough that I did a tiny amount of volunteer work for that initiative. And if you knew how lazy I am…….

  23. 23.

    WaterGirl

    @Geminid: If I leave them on the list, then everyone gets the same $$ unless someone remember to customize the amounts. It’s possible likely that expecting people to remember to do that would not be a great success. :-)

  24. 24.

    WaterGirl

    @Cameron: Ooh, I don’t think I would like that at all.  I would rather be able to say “I like this person best” but if I can’t have them, I would take this other person.

    edit: otherwise, it seems like you would end up with the mediocre candidate that no one had really strong feelings about.

  25. 25.

    H.E.Wolf

    @WaterGirl: ​”I am starting to care about some of the candidates, not just as wins/seats but they are good.”

    @WaterGirl: “Question: Should we remove any of these candidates if/when they reach $5,000? So new funds help bump up the rest?”​
     Agreed, re: getting to know and care about the candidates supported by Balloon Juice. I’ve followed with great interest the careers of the 2018 and 2020 Balloon Juice fundraising picks!

    I think it’s an interesting idea to set a modest financial goal for each candidate, and then add another candidate to the list of 10 whenever one of the earlier candidates reaches that target. If “all politics is local”, this would be one way for us jackals to become quasi-local boosters for more candidates….

  27. 27.

    Another Scott

    @Cameron: Thanks for the pointer.

    ElectionScience.org – Approval vs Instant Runoff (RCV).

    They make a decent case, and the simplicity and local counting are compelling advantages, but the issue of someone liking, say, Washington at 75% and Jackson at 5% but only being able to vote for both of them equally seems like a problem. Lani Guinier’s Proportionate Interest Representation would seem to address that (if there are 5 candidates, you get 5 votes to distribute as you wish – your favorite could get all 5 of your votes). But “one person, one vote” is a large hill to climb.

    Someone winning with 28% of the vote seems pathological, but then I remember that Lincoln won with 39.8% of the vote in 1860 (4 candidates won electoral votes).

    Trying different systems at the state and local level makes sense. It’ll be interesting to see how it shakes out.

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  30. 30.

    middlelee

    @WaterGirl:  I don’t know why Dina would be a toss-up.  She is about a two or three time incumbent and has lots of money in the war chest.

    Haven’t heard from my friend.  I phoned her but got voice mail.

  32. 32.

    WaterGirl

    @middlelee: Gemini answered that one:

    I think the new Nevada 1st Congressional District was drawn to have more Republicans than it used to. Representative Titus did not like the new map one bit, and said so very bluntly.

  34. 34.

    middlelee

    @WaterGirl: And I see that the money figures I’m looking at are June, 2022.  The important ones are coming up since we are at the end of the 3rd quarter.

  36. 36.

    Cameron

    @Another Scott: It just seems to me (I’m no expert) that approval voting is more likely than other forms to give consensus candidates that voters can agree on, whether such candidates are their first choices or not.  Much as I like it, though, I don’t think AV is going to take America by storm.  I’ve talked it up a bit down here in Florida, and the response has been underwhelming – either ‘don’t change anything’ or ‘RCV or die.’

  38. 38.

    WaterGirl

    @middlelee: Yeah, but all we have for any of the races is end of June, unless i find an article with more current information.

    I have no idea how quickly they release the end of Sept financial info.

  39. 39.

    RaflW

    Thank you for showing us the results breakout (so far!). Obviously some candidates were added more recently, but I’m fascinated to see how the customization may play out (I do it, I’m sure a lot of us do). Nice to see Ms. Caraveo made the list! Thanks!

    In addition to BJ grassroots organizing and the above thermo, I end up giving quite a bit via Charles Gaba’s various pages (this is his late-game top 40 House races). He gets nothing but the pleasure of becoming this random but successful online ‘bundler’. I’ve followed him for years because of his ACA work, and it’s cool to see him branch out in support of broad and deep donation organizing.

  40. 40.

    Geminid

    @WaterGirl: Maybe you could have a second “emeritus” list of people who have reached $5000. This could keep them in our minds, and be sort of a brag on our fund raising prowess.

  41. 41.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: The smallest plurality win I can think of was Jake Auchingloss’s victory in the 2020 Massachusetts 4th CD primary. The seat became open when Representative Kennedy ran for the Senate against Ed Markey, and 9 Democrats ran for the nomination. Two of them withdrew before primary day but still collected votes.

    Auchingloss won with 22.4% of the vote, beating Jesse Memel who had 21.1%. The third place finisher recieved 18 %. Some people here said that Auchingloss would not have won a ranked choice primary because he was the most moderate of the candidates, and fans of the more liberal candidates would have ranked each other’s candidates and not Auchingloss.

    Auchingloss seems to have satisfied doubters and was unopposed in this year’s primary. (Ms. Memel contemplated a run but ruled it out because of a health challenge to a family member).

  42. 42.

    Mai Naem mobile

    @WaterGirl you may want to think of adding Kristen Engel to your purple winnable seats – she’s running in what is kinda sorta Ann Kirkpatrick’s seat. Theyve tweaked the district to give more of an edge to the GOP. She’s a solid Southern Arizona  candidate but covering a lot of rural areas.

  43. 43.

    WaterGirl

    @Mai Naem mobile:

    I googled, and it does look like a close race that both sides really want to win.

    It looks like she didn’t show up at a forum for the two candidates recently, which is not a good look.  Never confirmed, never said she couldn’t make it.  That seems like an own goal.

    Do you know what happened there?

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