At the moment I’m writing, Lauren Boebert is trailing her opponent, Adam Frisch, by ~2,500 votes with 90% of the vote tallied. I’m assuming the rest is absentee votes, so this is anyone’s election.
Colorado was re-districted this year and added one House seat, but Boebert’s CO-3 district went from PVI R+6 to R+7. That’s a huge push, and bravo to Frisch for making this race so close.
Boebert raised $6.6 million and spent $6.3 million. Frisch raised $3.7 million and spent about $3 million. I’m going to guess that there was a lot of independent expenditure in this race but I don’t have a good source for that. One PAC leader is claiming that his PAC was the only one who thought CO-3 was competitive, so maybe the PACs spent their money elsewhere.
One of the big mysteries of politics is how much spend is enough. In this race, it looks like $3-4 million might have been enough. We’ll see. Also, if there’s a Republican carbuncle in a race in a district that is R+10 or better, it’s probably not the worst investment in the world.
Anyway, if any CO-3 residents or Colorado watchers know a little bit about the remaining 10% of the vote, I’d love to hear it.
Baud
If we get this, it’ll be the sweetest win of all.
Anonymous Expat
CO-3 resident who’s been living abroad (read: immigrant to northern Europe) for 13 years, I thought I would have to bear the shame of Boebert speaking on my behalf for another cycle, and am f’ing ecstatic that I may avoid it.
It’s an early Christmas miracle!
JoyceH
@Baud: Boy-howdy, ain’t that the truth! One of the things that has irked me so much about the recent crop of Republicans is that they seem to believe that their ONLY job as elected officials is performative jackassery. Cawthorne and Boebert were two of the worst, and let’s hope Boebert gets shown to the door, as a lesson to the others. Now… sigh, there’s still Greene and Gaetz. Do their districts really LIKE that crap?
Zzyzx
NY Times is showing a huge chunk of these votes is in Pueblo County where Frisch is stronger.
RevRick
There is a chance that the Dems will flip the lower house of the PA legislature. And they held all the US Rep seats.
West of the Rockies
Didn’t Boebert just lose her shitty bar? I hope all she has left is her creepster husband and junior high mean girl shtick. F her.
SiubhanDuinne
@Baud:
Heh. Just before I opened this thread, I was telling a Canadian friend about Boebert and how close the race is, and the term I used was “If she loses, it will be delicious!”
Kay
So true. If you call them back and try again with the unknown number they will block you, even if you are related to them and love them very much.
Butch
@West of the Rockies: Yeah, it was called “Shooters,” a play on “Hooters.” When it closed (if I remember right, because the landlord revoked the lease) it was losing something like $200,000 a year.
Parfigliano
A 24-7-365 diet of Fox News and Limbaugh clones (hope he died in agony cause fuck him) coupled with a so called liberal media happy to pile on.
dmsilev
@Baud: Sarah Palin getting rejected, again, by the voters of Alaska would be pretty sweet as well.
Suzanne
I might treat myself to a fancy dessert if she loses. Just to taste sweet, sweet tears.
James E Powell
@Zzyzx:
According to this CNN page, the majority of the yet-to-be-counted votes are from counties were Frisch is leading.
Dare to dream!
SiubhanDuinne
@JoyceH:
And Gosar. And Gohmert. The Four Gs of the Apocalypse.
Almost Retired
@SiubhanDuinne: Grassley feels left out.
$8 blue check mistermix
OK, I downloaded the county-by-county totals from the Colorado Secretary of State and applied the outstanding percentage of votes for each county. (For example, if Frisch and Boebert each got 100 votes in a county and 10% is outstanding, they would end up with 111 votes each, by splitting the remaining 22 votes in half.)
Frisch will have a little more than 1,200 additional votes if the remaining votes break the way that already counted votes broke in each county.
30% of the vote is still out in Pueblo so that’s what will do it for him, as someone above mentioned. No other big county is out like that.
James E Powell
@Kay:
It’s not just the youth of the nation. I’m 67 & I never answer a call when I don’t know who is calling. And, to be honest, sometimes not even when I do.
JoyceH
BTW, what do you folks think about Trump’s ominous warning that if DeSantis runs for President, Trump will Reveal Things about him. Hot air, or something there?
Ohio Mom
I thought I was paying attention to who was making what predictions to gauge how accurate they were. For future reference.
I know my friend Martha thought Ryan had a real chance, nope, politely ignore her prognostications going forward.
Omnes Omnibus said in another thread that he may have been a smidgen over-optimistic but he was damn close, I wil make a note to pay attention to his forecasting next time around.
Michael Moore was wrong about it being a big Blue wave but he was never in the running for future prediction noting. Josh Marshall hedges too much.
Other than that, too many races in too many places to keep track of it all. Anybody else noticed a good forecaster?
A Ghost to Most
Redistricting, and hatred of Christian supremacists. People are still mostly sane a mile up.
Obvious Russian Troll
@Kay:
Under 30? I’m in my fifties and I feel the same way.
dmsilev
@Suzanne: Someone somewhere must have invented a Sweet Tears of Schadenfreude cocktail. Seems inevitable.
Edit: Google suggests The Schadenfreude, described as ‘sharp and sweet, with a bite’.
Miss Bianca
Man, I hope CD-3 kicks that trash bag to the curb. Sez this former CD-3 resident.
Layer8Problem
@JoyceH: “Please proceed, former president.”
Butch
@SiubhanDuinne: Gohmert did retire, so there’s that.
Kay
@Obvious Russian Troll:
I pick up because I might have won a contest. You’ve missed those calls. More for me!
Martin
Update on CA.
My county still has put up their remaining to count data and ⅓ of total ballots so far received are still unprocessed. They’ll dump counts once a day (5PM) from here out, so there’s not going to be frequent updates.
All same-day ballots were processed. These are all vote by mail ballots either mailed in, picked up from a drop box, or picked up from a voting center. In CA ballots can be received for the next week provided they have a 11/8 postmark, so additional ballots will keep showing up. Possibly more than expected given the rain and people possibly skipping a trip to drop the ballot off.
In CA, the pattern is that the early vote by mail get counted, which normally lean D, then they stop doing that, process same day which lean more R, then return to mail which lean D again. In the past two elections if the Dem was ahead after Election Day, they almost always won. They could even be a few points behind and still pull out a win. Katie Porter was about 4% back in 2018 after election night and won by about 1%. That was vote by mail D lean coming in. What we didn’t know this cycle was how much of the 2020 vote by mail pattern would hold – mailed early, return to in-person, mailed late or dropped off same day. Looks like that late vote by mail volume held up pretty well. We’ll see if the D lean also holds.
My guess is that Ds probably have 9 of these. Might close the gap in CA-3 and CA-22, and probably can’t in the rest. If Dems only win 9 of these and lose 6, that means Dems hold the same number of seats as they did before the midterms and R lose one (not a flip since CA lost a district). If they can pull out CA-3 and 22, then it’d be a flip of 2 seats from R to D.
But I have a better sense of OC vote trends and less about other parts of the state, so maybe late votes won’t skew D in some of those areas? That said, I think it’s notable that CNN hasn’t called an R+21 or a D+23 race even after same day appears to be done. We won’t even have received the last of the ballots until 11/15, so the earliest you get a full picture of what is/isn’t counted won’t be until 11/16. And CA cures ballots before the count, so in my county we have 2300 duplicated ballots to count – those may require a direct contact with the voter to resolve. That can take a while. Some of the remaining ballots will have problems that need to be fixed by a call to the voter – missing signature, ambiguous marking, etc. That’s why it goes slow. You gotta *really* fuck up a ballot for it to not get counted here – basically badly enough that the county can’t figure out who cast it.
Jerszy
“Boebert raised $6.6 million and spent $6.3 million.”
Don’t forget that $333,000 went to her campaign mileage.
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
@Kay: It’s not just under 30’s. I am 61 and my husband is 60 we only hold onto the land line because cell service is spotty here sometimes. We never answer a number we don’t know on our cell phones or the house phone, I wouldn’t actually mind answering a poll but they call at the least convenient times (like when I am at work or taking care of the dog or cats). I really want to know who is actually participating in these polls. My dad used to answer and give completely bull shit answers because it amused him (he was a blue state Trumper unfortunately)
Josie
@Obvious Russian Troll: I’m in my 70’s and do the same.
Mo Salad
Of course, any(non-military)one under 30 wouldn’t even know what a grenade looks like, let alone how it operates.
Ooo, look, a metal pinecone!
Tony G
My niece lives in that district. If Boebert does, in fact, get the boot and goes back to her roots as a waitress with an AR-15, my niece (and I) will be pretty happy.
pajaro
My 16 year-old grandkid, who lives in the district, started texting me last night. The 18 year old, who is away at college but voted in the district, said that voting against Boebert was the highlight of his first election.
As one of the earlier posters said, there are a lot of remaining votes in areas that are not in Boebert’s “heartland,” so there’s reason to be optimistic.
Old School
@JoyceH:
My guess is hot air. Trump likely wants DeSantis to wonder which of his secrets he knows, but he is just bluffing.
sab
@Kay: Usually they are trying to sell me insurance.
Tony G
@Jerszy: Boebert’s ammo fund, I suppose.
Eolirin
@Martin: Ugh, really starting to get a sinking feeling that the losses in NY will be the margin in the House ><
Kay
@EmbraceYourInnerCrone:
Arent you afraid its a relative calling? From jail? That happens more than you might think.
Matt McIrvin
@Ohio Mom: Believe it or not, Paul Campos got it about right. Of course he phrased it in the most pessimistic manner possible, but he felt (1) the Dems were going to outperform expectations and (2) it wouldn’t stop the political media from going on about what’s wrong with them.
Old School
When I was young and the phone rang, it was usually a race between me and my brother to see who could answer it first. My kids are going to grow up thinking that a phone is something that rings, but is rarely answered.
sab
@Kay: That is why my husband always answers, day or night.
NutmegAgain
I would like to make a short note for the record. It’s not original to me, but I think it’s important. All the various talking heads (hah see what I did there…) were buffaloed by the results: how have the Dems pulled out so many not-losses? Why is there no red wave? They try all kinds of numerical answer and so on.
Well, I think the answer is simple: People, mainly women of all ages and origins, were Fed.The.Fuck.Up. after Dobbs, and voted to indicate that anger. Even if you don’t want an abortion for yourself, the vile and totalitarian contempt for women as embodied humans* is so clear, and so awful that it required an answer. No, we didn’t elect Gloria Steinem or whoever to all open seats, but again, she wasn’t running. Still–it’s the women’s rights guys. Remember: Women’s rights are human rights. Don’t step on me, indeed.
*meant to include all kinds of women~
sab
Not a single text from a political campaign today. I wore out the clear button on my flip phone, clearing texts.
Delk
60 and don’t answer unknown cell calls and I unplugged my landline 3 weeks ago. Phone calls and emails were out of control this election.
West of the Rockies
@Butch:
Did he? I’m not finding any mention on Wikipedia.
Martin
@JoyceH: Something there. Trump peddles in blackmail. Always has. He lived in the tabloid space, understands the catch and kill nature of that space, and engages in it himself. There’s no chance he isn’t paying people to dig up dirt on DeSantis or even just buying stories from tabloids.
Normal political dirt finding, but Trump does it for *everyone* because that’s also how he does business deals.
The more relevant question is whether anyone will care. I mean, DeSantis just ran a campaign ad that we was anointed by God to run Florida, so I’m gonna say no. GOP support for Walker despite the abortion news didn’t wane. They don’t give a shit. These people would gladly throw jews in ovens to maintain political power. We know this.
JanieM
@James E Powell:
Answering machines were the real change. Before answering machines, I only ever knew one person who could resist answering the phone when it rang. Caller ID was icing on the cake. :-)
ETA: @Obvious Russian Troll: I’m 72 and you can add me to the list.
Martin
@Eolirin: Maybe. NY Dems really fucked up. Shocking, I know.
It’s really astonishing how regressive NY politics has remained. I think it’s finally starting to catch up to them.
TaMara
So the signs were there earlier, and on Saturday, polling suggested Frisch would come close, but I think we all thought it was too good to be true (except Jen Psaki’s dad) and decided not to get our hopes up.
No one likes her. She’s an embarrassment and Frisch has run an excellent campaign. Also, while that district likes their guns and freedumbs, they are not as batshit crazy as other red areas around the country. Not naming any names but their reps pretty much give them away. So not voting for her was a possibility if they had a good alternative.
Layer8Problem
I’m looking for serious payback for our anointed thought leaders (the FTFNYT, the Washington Post under its current editor, NPR, networks, blah blah blah) having declared an unstoppable Red Wave because of indisputable polls and pre-ordained historically mandated mid-term inevitability, and somehow in spite of decree finding themselves a bit, ahem, non-plussed with the lack of earth-shattering kaboom. A lot of damage was done and a lot of dooming was slapped on a lot of newsprint and electrons, but it just didn’t bury us. Why should we continue to believe what our betters in the Very Serious Punditry trade dole out? I wait for the Times’ post-mortem explanation of why there were very good reasons for what they did.
FelonyGovt
@Martin: Very pleased to read your detailed report, because I was kind of depressed after talking to my friend in Orange County this morning- she said Katie Porter was in great shape but the others don’t look good. I did remind her that it could take a long time for all our CA votes to be counted.
We were wondering about the districts that span, say OC and LA County (or OC and SD County) and whether OCvotes.com includes just the OC voters.
Ohio Mom
@Matt McIrvin: Oh god, I have to go back to LGM? I deleted that bookmark ages ago.
cmorenc
In the other Congressional race (Alaska) where a win would be nearly a sweet as in Co-3: Petrola has 47% while Palin has 26.5% and Begich 24.5% (roundd numbers). Do Alaska election laws require a runoff, or will Petrola win with her strong plurality showing?
WHUPS – update: Alaska has ranked-choice voting. And so whether Petrola wins or not likely depends on how many of Begich’s voters rank Petrola ahead of Palin when Alaska election officials canvass the 2nd choice votes.
Matt McIrvin
@JanieM: I had it drilled into my head as a child that you never just let the phone ring because it might be an emergency. Also that you didn’t want to hog the phone line for too long because there might be an emergency.
The idea that the home phone line was a vital lifesaving resource was behind everything. (Of course you might just not be at home to answer your phone–but I suppose that made it all the more crucial that people who did happen to be at home did their duty.)
Miss Bianca
@TaMara: I think that Frisch was helped by being a white business-type man. I still think – and I am aware that this is sexist of me – that if we had elected James Iacino instead of Diane Mitsch Bush in the Democratic primary in 2020, we might not have had to deal with Boebert at all. But that remains forever speculative. Just hoping Frisch pulls it out in the end.
Betty Cracker
@JoyceH: I’m skeptical because Trump is such a liar, but he’s got to be hopping mad about the Murdoch outlets saying Trump is over and DeSantis is the future. I’m tempted to hope Trump goes through with announcing a 2024 run on the 15th and shits all over DeSantis for the next two years. But our Beltway media is so dysfunctional it might spin that into a narrative about DeSantis saving the GOP from Trumpism.
Martin
@FelonyGovt: OCVotes only includes the county. That’s why I’m not trying too hard to work out the districts that span counties – I’ll wait for the SOS page to pull all of the uncounted data together. I’m assuming they’ll still do that – they did in 18 and 20.
brendancalling
@Zzyzx: It’s gotta hurt to be at the NYT today. They invested so much time and effort into depressing the Democratic vote, and all for nothing.
Oh well. FTNYT.
Gravenstone
@SiubhanDuinne: Gohmert retired, I thought? At least didn’t run for reelection.
Will
Nevada not looking good. Mail ballot dump is Washoe actually added to Laxalt’s lead over Mastro.
Rural areas also reporting mail ballots to vote and they haven’t been breaking Dem like you would expect.
UncleEbeneezer
@Martin: Thanks for this. I’m still baffled as to how Christy Smith went from losing by only 300 votes in special election to trailing by 13% in 2022. Garcia ran a bunch of negative ads all over the place, but still…
Gravenstone
@JoyceH: His usual bullshit bluster.
Qrop Non Sequitur
@cmorenc: Alaska has instant run off.
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
@Kay: Not really, the last time that happened was so long ago we did not have a cell phone and it was spouse’s Navy buddy calling him from the drunk tank in Honolulu….I have also gotten drunk 2am husband calls from North Beach and from the Seychelles, …note to self do not ever call from the hotel room phone, that was a painful phone bill.
cain
@NutmegAgain: Where they fucked up is not having a diversified group of people inside the media looking at the issues. Instead you had white males who basically thought Dobbs didn’t mean anything and thought it was the economy but also being incredibly lazy and using the age old wisdom that the president party always loses on midterms. Now they can’t pull that shit out again.
Old School
@West of the Rockies: Louis Gohmert tried to run for Attorney General in Texas and didn’t make it past the primary. Next January, a new Republican, Nathaniel Moran, will represent TX-1.
Eolirin
@cmorenc: They use ranked choice. Begich’s votes will be distributed to their second pick. This is looking like a repeat of the special. If Palin had come in third, Peltola might have had an issue.
Martin
@cmorenc: The IRV is the runoff. When you reallocate the last place voters, that does the job of performing a runoff without need for a separate election. That’s sorta the point of it – you add the benefit of the certainty of the winner getting to 50% without having to do what GA is about to do by running yet another election in a month.
zhena gogolia
@Betty Cracker: I started hyperventilating about DeSantis this morning and my husband calmly said, he isn’t going to happen (nationally). I hope he’s right.
zhena gogolia
@brendancalling: I’m not sure it was for nothing. We lost a few we should have won.
hells littlest angel
Thanks, WaterGirl, for all the work you’ve done to make this blog a positive place to come for Democratic politics!
RaflW
Ayyee, it looks like all election day ballots maybe have been counted in CO-03? Montrose Co. reported 48 mins ago, and the CO S.O.S. site says 100% of election reporting in. “Post-election reporting in Progress”
Does that mean outstanding mail ballots remain? Provisional ballots? If so, Frisch is ahead in the voting, but it’s not over.
Matt McIrvin
@cmorenc: It’s an instant-runoff ranked-choice system. The result if there is no majority on the first choice votes depends on the voters’ second-choice rankings. My understanding is that Peltola is heavily favored to win when those are counted.
zhena gogolia
@hells littlest angel: Amen.
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
@Delk: Texts drove me nuts this year. I ended up on several phone lists because I did a lot of small donations in 2020, jeez the number of texts asking for money. I did donate but I’m not clicking a link in a text, no way.
FelonyGovt
@Martin: Thanks. I noted that Jay Chen was doing well in LA County, apparently not as well in OC.
@UncleEbeneezer: Agreed, though I was concerned about Christy Smith because I think she ran, and lost, twice before, albeit only by 300 some odd votes last time. I kept seeing negative commercials about her during my hockey game telecasts, down here in the South Bay.
sab
I am trying to imagine Ohioans figuring out ranked voting.
eclare
@James E Powell: Same here! And I’ll go weeks without checking voice-mail. This is 2022, send a text.
zhena gogolia
Butch
@West of the Rockies: He’s done in January. It’s a little hidden in this article but it’s there.
https://www.texastribune.org/2022/08/18/louie-gohmert-texas-congress/
Martin
@UncleEbeneezer: I can’t see LA county’s unprocessed ballot data – still a bit early for it. But in 2020 they lagged almost everyone in the state in terms of counting – it’s a big place. I’m guessing they have at least ⅓ of the ballots still to count. I think in 2020 they were still sitting on 2 million ballots the day after the election. It was a LOT.
Early days, still.
SiubhanDuinne
@Almost Retired:
He’s in the Senate. I was counting House members only. But apart from that, he definitely qualifies. I was really disappointed that Mike Franken couldn’t bring Grassley down. I thought he had a good chance. Very attractive candidate.
Matt McIrvin
@cain: I definitely think we were pushing against the midterm effect favoring the party out of the White House. It just wasn’t enough to produce a giant red wave this time. But the Republicans taking the House and Senate by slim margins is still a very live possibility.
The most recent midterm where the President’s party didn’t lose much was 2002, the post-9/11 midterm. Before that, 1998 was pretty much a wash–turned out the voters didn’t really like the Republicans’ vendetta against Bill Clinton. But ’94 had been the classic counter-President red wave.
SiubhanDuinne
@Butch:
Honestly, I’d forgotten that. GRTBR.
PJ
@Martin: Cuomo appointing Republicans to the Court of Appeals is the gift that keeps on giving.
Kelly
Oregonian calls Oregon Governor race for Tina Kotek(D)
FelonyGovt
I want to echo my thanks to Water Girl for her amazing efforts in helping us preserve democracy!
UncleEbeneezer
@Martin: So you’re saying there’s still a chance? Lol…
eclare
@Kelly: Yay! The independent candidate had the potential to be a spoiler.
Martin
@RaflW: Almost certainly provisional. CO requires ballots be received Election Day, so they should at least have all ballots in hand. They may not process same day received by mail ballots in favor of processing machine ballots – that’s what happens in CA. Not familiar enough with CO, but that’s at least a possibility.
Provisional always require additional work to determine if the ballot should count. That’s universal.
The 100% reporting almost always means that all precincts have reported *something* not that all expected ballots have been counted. And because precincts can vary in size, that can really throw people off. Missouri is like this – 95% of precincts reporting, and then St Louis shows up with massive precincts and half of the states votes show up in the last 5% of the precincts and the whole result gets flipped on its head.
You have to be really careful extrapolating from that % reported, because it doesn’t mean what you kind of expect it means. CA is currently at 100% reported and my county still has almost half a million ballots unprocessed. LA is probably at least a million.
lee
My understanding is that MTG represents the poorest area of her state and the most heavily Republican district in the country.
She won’t be voted out.
Baud
@Kelly: Excellent. Dodged a bullet.
Martin
@UncleEbeneezer: Actually, yeah. Don’t take my word for it – CNN, NYT, AP – none of them have called that race. Doesn’t mean it’ll tighten appreciably, just means there’s more than enough votes unknown out there to allow it. I mean, we’ll still be receiving ballots for a week yet. We can’t even estimate that impact. How many people were planning on dropping off their ballot at a vote center, saw it was chucking down rain and stuck it in their mailbox instead? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
mrmoshpotato
Rooting for injuries is what I think.
eclare
@lee: I lived in ATL for fourteen years, not sure about the poorest area in GA. A lot of rural counties in the south of GA are pretty poor. But it is rural, Appalachian, and overwhelmingly White. MTG isn’t going away.
mrmoshpotato
@Miss Bianca:
Horrible thing to say about trash bags. They’re actually useful.
Michael Cain
Colorado also allows up to eight days after Election Day for voters to cure signature problems on their return envelopes. In 2020, roughly 30,000 signatures had problems and about 10,000 were resolved and the ballots counted.
Tony G
@Tony G: Liberal Jewish kid from Brooklyn. Various circumstances brought her to a job (as a psychologist in a medical center) to that part of Colorado. Now she’s surrounded by gun-totin’, vaccine-refusin’ loonies. Not a fan of Boebert.
jonas
@JoyceH: Just bog standard Trumpian bullshitting. Remember when he sent private investigators to Hawaii who found “unbelievable” dirt on Obama? I’m sure it’s the same guys.
Tony G
@jonas: Those must be the same private investigators that my “hot Canadian girlfriend” hung around with, back when I was a teenager.
Kelly
@Baud:
@eclare:
and sweat shop billionaire Phil Knight just pissed away several million dollars
RaflW
@brendancalling: They seem pretty f**ing impervious over there at the Times, though.
OGLiberal
@RaflW: Ralston linked to a story from the local NBC affiliate that says the outstanding mail-in ballot as of 11AM today was at least 58K uncounted (39K received before election day, 18.5K received on election day) and almost certainly more because that doesn’t include mail-in ballot mailed on election day. No idea if the breakdown except for the 18.5K received on election day, which are 6K dem, 6.2K GOP and 6.3K unaffiliated. People who more than me about Nevada – and I don’t know much – can opine on whether or that’s good for CCM or not good.
cain
@Matt McIrvin: I plan for the best scenario and accept nothing else. I believe in our voters and women to keep us in power.
cain
@Kelly: FUCK YEAH! FUCK YOU KNIGHT!!!!
Anyway
I don’t know about the media being all “white guys” – FTFNYT, NPR, WaPo bylines have a lot of females and nowadays bylines have pictures – I see AA and recent immigrants in the mix. Same with teevee.
Cameron
@Betty Cracker: If they can destroy each other and maybe take the Murdochs down at the same time, I could live with such a result. What was that old curse – “epoxy upon their houses” – or something like that?
cain
@eclare: I wonder what kind of representation do they expect from her other than performative bullshit?
sdhays
@Kay: I was texting with my mom this morning on just this subject. As far as I’m concerned, the phone system has basically been destroyed by the rampant scam calls, and no one seems to care all that much.
cain
@Anyway: That’s the public part – there are still people behind the scenes – I think that is mostly white guys. Also there are definitely some old white women who just apply common wisdom from the past 30 years.
BritinChicago
@JoyceH: probably lying because he always does. But indicative of how he’ll respond if DiSantis gets the nomination, and therefore good news.
OGLiberal
@RaflW: You were talking about CO-3, not NV-Sen. My bad. Still interested to see if anybody has thoughts on the NV outstanding votes. Ralston didn’t provide a lot of context.
UncleEbeneezer
Anyone know much about CIRCLE, Tufts University’s election research group? They have the following info for Youth Voters in 2022 House Races:
Black: 89% D – 9% R
Latinx: 68% D – 30% R
White: 58% D – 40% R
Those numbers actually give me a ray of hope that my “Raise Better White People” tee shirt is more than a pipe-dream, because while those numbers suck relative to Black/Latinx numbers, they are much better than old white voter %’s.
JanieM
@JanieM:
And then along came spoofing numbers…… Sigh.
randy khan
@JoyceH:
Could be either, but I’d bet on a third choice – Trump will just make something up.
sdhays
@Martin:
I’m going to have to disagree with you there. Trump doesn’t pay for anything.
Scout211
I just saw this on dKos: Shot/Chaser
It’s a tweet with side-by-side videos of Doocy before and after the election. ::chef’s kiss::
Alison Rose
@randy khan: pee tape
Jim Appleton
@UncleEbeneezer: I’m a 61yo white man wearing that shirt.
Kelly
Gonna go clear space in my garage to park in out of the weather for the winter. Been cursing the redistricting folks for not adding a slightly bigger slice of Portland from Earl Blumanauer’s deep blue 3rd to the 5th. Come on guys you could have followed Woodstock Blvd all the way west.
Jamie McLeod-Skinner remains too close to call.
HumboldtBlue
Kentucky judge Mary Shaw, who signed the warrant that led to the killing of Breonna Taylor, was defeated by challenger Tracy Davis.
Baud
@HumboldtBlue: Whoa. KY!
Mai Naem mobile
@SiubhanDuinne: Goober Gohmert retired rather than being humiliated by being beat in his increasing blue district.
Geminid
@Ohio Mom: A good forecaster? I recall that Geminid said at least twice here that he thought control of the House was a 50-50 proposition, and that we might not know the outcome for several days on account of close races.
But I understand that he is somewhat surprised this actually happened!
Leslie
@UncleEbeneezer: Those attack ads were very effective. Sleazy and undoubtedly misleading, but effective. Garcia being a man, Latino, and ex-military probably helps, too.
Barbara
@Ohio Mom: I follow Al Giordano on Twitter, and he has a newsletter, which I keep meaning to subscribe to but likely will now, because — his prediction was 219 R to 216 D. He didn’t get every race right, but he predicted a number of pick ups in Ohio and North Carolina, and clearly understood the larger forces in motion. Christopher Bouzy and Tom Bonier, also followed on Twitter, were optimists countering the crescendo of doom, along with Simon Rosenberg. Bonier and Rosenberg looked at early voting and registration data by demographic, and did not make final predictions, but generally applied some very astute analysis to predict that a red wave was getting less and less likely after each day of early voting. All kept me sane, but I turned off Twitter on Monday because I just couldn’t take it any more until results started coming in.
I’m also going to call out for the Grr factor — Dave Wasserman at the Cook Report. After turning his nose up at people getting modestly optimistic over early voting numbers, he tuned in mid-day Tuesday to say that it looked like a bad night for Dems because turnout was down in the Black areas of Hampton Roads. Didn’t even give a mea culpa this morning, just carried on talking about the impact of redistricting. So, basically, my tea leaves are worthless while your tea leaves have superpowers.
Mai Naem mobile
@JoyceH: TFG probably stole all the fbi files on his possible opponents because its something he would do. The files are probably sitting at one of his properties.
Ohio Mom
@Geminid: Like I said, there’s been too much for me to keep track of, now I know to add you to my list.
dm
Possible he has something real, possibly via Matt Gaetz. It doesn’t really matter, because he’ll make something up and his followers will believe it.
I doubt that “DeSanctimonious” (okay, so the Orange Blight actually came up with something worth repeating) will have quite the appeal to pry loose the people who superimpose Trump’s head on Sylvester Stallone’s Rambo body.
I may be wrong. Trump has something I can’t see. Maybe Desantis has it, too.
Ohio Mom
@Barbara: Thanks. That is what I want, realistic steadfast pragmatism.
Kathleen
@brendancalling: The Devil just posted on Meta that he can’t accept any more souls from Beltway Pundits because he’s run out of room in Helleburton.
Bobby Thomson
Boebert shot her neighbor’s dog and then didn’t even tell them about it when they were outside calling. You can do anything you want to people and get elected as a Republican, but voters draw the line at dogs.
Jinchi
Perhaps the best thing about yesterday’s election is we didn’t wake this morning to news that TFG had declared his candidacy for 2024.
AM in NC
@UncleEbeneezer: I’d also like to see the gender breakdowns, and see how much of that youth white vote for Dems was women.
It would really make me so so happy to see young white men ditching the GOP.
dm
@Mai Naem mobile:
That was the first thing I thought of when news came out about classified documents at Margarine Lago.
WaterGirl
@Baud: Sorry to disagree, but keeping the house and the senate will be the sweetest wins.
Kathleen
@Baud: Kentucky also voted down amendment to have anti abortion law added to the State constitution. Turnout in Northern Kentucky was off the charts. I think that’s as big as the vote in Kansas.
UncleEbeneezer
@AM in NC: Oh, based on videos of college lines for voting that I saw, I’m sure the young women did most of the heavy lifting for Dems. The lines I saw were like 70% women. I’d love to see Young White Men start ditching the GOP but I won’t hold my breath for it.
WaterGirl
@RevRick: About half of our down-ballot races we thought could have reverse coattails were in PA. Coincidence? :-)
Mike E
@brendancalling: yeah, just like CNN being angry about Obama not striking Syria because they couldn’t run all those expensive war graphics, the poor dears!
Matt McIrvin
Massachusetts Question 1 (millionaire’s tax bracket) called: it’s yes.
I think every candidate and position I voted for in this general election won, which is unusual even for here.
Kathleen
@Barbara: I follow Al and subscribe to his newsletter. I remember especially how he nailed 2018 election and I think pretty much nailed this one too. He truly adds value not regarding predictions but perspective on how other countries have weathered authoritarian dictatorships and how we need to keep eye on the prize and not over react to every blip on the radar.
I can be hyperbolic and panicky but his wisdom helps me focus on the big picture.
WaterGirl
@Ohio Mom: Please put me down as right about everything. That way I won’t have to feel sad that you are ignoring me. :-)
trollhattan
@JoyceH: A DeSantis Pee Tape rumor would be hard to keep alive for two years.
WaterGirl
@pajaro: I need to clean my glasses, when I read that I thought it said first erection, and I thought that was sad. :-)
AM in NC
@UncleEbeneezer: Well I’m doing my part, having produced one Gen Z voter and one GenZ soon-to-be-voter. Both are men/boys (depends on the day) and both solidly liberal.
But, yeah, historically speaking, if we have to count on white American men to step the fuck up and protect democracy and equal opportunity for all, none of us should be holding our breaths.
RaflW
Thank you @Martin. I really appreciate the knowledge base that is just casually scattered about and offered up kindly.
PaulB
In better news from Nevada, Dave Wasserman agrees with Jon Ralston that the three House races that haven’t been called yet will all go to the Democratic candidates. No word from Ralston yet on the Senate race, mostly because of drop box numbers uncertainty.
mrmoshpotato
@WaterGirl:
CO-3 kicking Blowbert to the curb would be the “Throw the gun-humping brat out” on top.
UncleEbeneezer
@WaterGirl: Still better than “last erection,” lol
Baud
@WaterGirl: Yes, of course. I was referring to an individual race.
James E Powell
@Ohio Mom:
Bill Kristol?
I predicted double digit wins for Abbot & DeSantis. Not popular for it, but accurate.
UncleEbeneezer
@AM in NC: That’s great. It’s so hard to get young men to even care enough to pay attention. Well done :)
Geminid
@Ohio Mom: Thanks!
But I think I may be on a lot of lists here already!
Mel
@Suzanne: I’m with you on that! A slice of sweet potato cheesecake is queued up to celebrate Greg Landsman’s win, and Oh! the added joy if Boebert gets flung on the dung heap!!
OverTwistWillie
OverTwistWillie
@James E Powell:
Michael Moore
Splitting Image
@Ohio Mom:
Bill Kristol got it exactly right.
No, that doesn’t make sense to me either.
MomSense
@Mai Naem mobile:
Someone really needs to check the coffin.
Paul W.
@WaterGirl: PA lower house has flipped Dem!
Geminid
@WaterGirl: And I keep reading your new Representative’s name as Buttinski! As in, “Freshman Congresswoman Buttinski has once again been reprimanded for interrupting her commitee colleagues.”
different-church-lady
@NutmegAgain: But that’s impossible! I was told over and over and over again that the price of gas was far more important to people than forced birthing.
Gravenstone
If they hope to connect with Young White (or any color, really) Women, they may find little choice.
Barbara
@Paul W.: This is monumental and neutralizes so many of the direst threats that body in particular has been lobbing in the name of election integrity. I think the unlikely success Dems had with independents in a mid-term election is attributable to people becoming fed up with the banshees screaming about non-existent fraud as they plot to take everyone else’s civil rights away.
Grumpy Old Railroader
@Martin:
Extreme uphill for Doctor Kermit (D) in this red district. He is a POC and a Democrat. Kiss of death in this mostly white rural district
different-church-lady
@Paul W.: I dunno if these are more accurately described as firewalls or ramparts, but either way it’s good news that there’s going to be some new ones. ‘Cause we’re gonna need ‘em, that’s for sure.
eclare
@Kelly: Love it!
Splitting Image
@Paul W.:
That might turn out to be the biggest story of the evening. Good work, all who made it happen.
UncleEbeneezer
different-church-lady
Boebert going down would have an positive effect far beyond picking up a single district. The narrative would switch to “mean girls are out of style with the voters.” MTG would lose a gang member on the playground and become more isolated.
Geminid
@different-church-lady: A Boebert loss might also underscore the importance of the “Unaffiliated” vote. That was probably the largest single cohort of voters in the 3rd CD, with Democrats a distant third. Fritsch must have carried a majority of them.
gvg
@AM in NC: I don’t know what to do about the not answering phone polls but someone mentioned nothing being done about all the spam and annoying calls. I think that is part of the problem.
I am 59 and I don’t answer unknown numbers unless I am expecting a call from someone like a new doctors office. It’s not just annoyance, it’s fear. There have been scam calls that are tricks to get you to have a large overseas bill or other charge and there was also slamming where they switched your phone carrier and claimed you authorized it. Plus someday I may get less mentally aware and become vulnerable to other fraud so I don’t want to have the habit of answering unknown calls. Texting is even more full of fraud and its mean. A lot of it comes from overseas so supposedly it can’t be stopped. We are going to have to figure out how though, aggressively.
In passing I will say again I hate texts from candidates. Even if I support them. I do not want them to text me. I am not a friendly person. They should note on their lists that I tell them to stop. This cycle I noticed most of them did not have the choice offered to tell them to STOP sending texts, so I blocked them.
Baud
@Geminid:
Re: the unaffiliated, there seem to have been a lot of ticket splitters in this election.
Martin
@Jinchi: He’s declaring next Tuesday.
geg6
@Paul W.:
OMG OMG OMG OMG! That is a big fucking deal! Holy shit, the Keystone State fucking rocks!
FelonyGovt
@gvg: My phone number seems to have been part of a recent scammer’s delight list. For about 2 weeks now I have been getting upwards of 10 “potential spam” calls a day. My iPhone is set to silence unknown callers, but it’s still annoying, and sadly, it’s not (just) election-related because it’s continuing today.
FelonyGovt
Just got a fundraising email from Warnock for the runoff.
JMS
@Barbara: Josh Marshall had a zoom call with TPM subscribers with Bonier and Rosenberg who were taking a bit of a victory lap. They also said Florida has blown up and will need years, lots of money, and a “project” to get back.
Suzanne
@geg6: I am LOVING THIS BLUE STATE ENERGY. Oh my God.
Miss Bianca
@Splitting Image: As someone else here noted earlier, “Always Wrong” Bill Kristol’s prognosticating skills suddenly took a turn for the better after he gave up on the Republicans. Hmmm…
Martin
@Grumpy Old Railroader: No, I get that, but Jones was up 3 in early mail. Late mail usually looks the same, question is how many ballots are there late mail in CA-3? It’s uphill, but it should tighten if they track with the rest of the state.
geg6
@Suzanne:
The state senate is still a problem. BUT…I never thought we’d go this Blue in my wildest dreams. I’m so happy!
VFX Lurker
@FelonyGovt:
Christy Smith lost by 300 votes in CA-25. Smith and Garcia now compete for CA-27. Could the newly-drawn CA-27 skew more conservative? It looks like CA-27 expanded northwards into Lancaster.
mali muso
Phew, just checking in after being on a total media blackout since Monday night. I had a really big event at work today and just knew I would not be able to keep my mental ish together if I even took a peek. Sounds like it was better than predicted by our media overlords but worse than we would hope (ie. normies are ridiculous clueless)?
Nicole
@Splitting Image:
@geg6:
It’s a little bit more complicated, though I’m holding out hope for the Commonwealth of my birth:
https://www.pennlive.com/news/2022/11/pa-democrats-claim-they-took-control-of-the-state-house-gop-says-not-so-fast.html
mrmoshpotato
@MomSense:
The fact that this isn’t a Ghouliani reference is so disgusting.
CaseyL
@FelonyGovt: Interestingly, I’ve already gotten one from Jon Ossoff, fundraising for Warnock. Their partnership is a delightful thing to see, and I devoutly hope Warnock wins so they can continue it.
I checked the vote breakdown for the race: the only other person running was a Libertarian, who got a little more than 2%. I tend to think Libertarian votes will go to the GOP if push comes to shove, but we’ll see.
Ruviana
@James E Powell: I feel seen!
Suzanne
@Gravenstone:
I think we have all underestimated how much of a shock to modern political life has been caused by assortative mating. Sigh.
Princess
@JoyceH: He’ll make stuff up if he needs to. I have to say, the thought of the establishment lining up behind De Santis and the base behind Trump is delicious. I thought Trump would just solve his de Santis problem by making him VP. But I don’t think that will cut it now.
🐾BillinGlendaleCA
@VFX Lurker:
That would probably make it a bit more Republican friendly.
Steeplejack
@JoyceH:
“His father killed J.F.K.!” (h/t Twitter)
FelonyGovt
@VFX Lurker: Good point, I forgot that redistricting shuffled everything.
ian
@PJ: The NY Constitution is fairly clear about partisan gerrymandering
Here is an article that goes further in detail
The whole map kerfuffle in NY was over a map that NY Dems knew they should not have tried to make.
artem1s
@Betty Cracker:
So I guess TFG was calling up random House GQPers earlier this week demanding to know how many times they were going to impeach Biden when they took over Nancy’s gavel.
What to you think the over/under is that he delays announcing again on the outside chance he thinks he can strong arm them into making him Speaker? I sure at least one of his nutball advisors has told him the the Speaker totally doesn’t have to the be elected to the House. That is a shit show I would totally watch. There is a lot of damage this asshole can do the GOP before DeathSantis gets a shot at him.
PST
@JoyceH:
Trump claimed to know things about DeSantis that no one else does, except maybe Mrs. DeSantis. I took that as a typically Trumpian hint that the revelation would be in the sex/adultery category, or maybe something about a family member. Not to say that it isn’t a bluff, just that real or not it’s likely sex stuff. There’s no chance of retaliation — Trump has proven himself immune to that kind of dirt.
Geminid
@Princess: Republican elites definitely want to put Trump in the rearview mirror. I’ve also seen anecdotal evidence that DeSantis is starting to build a following among Republican rank and file nationwide. Some of them seem to be impressed by DeSantis. Others just want a winner, and they see Trump as the weaker general election candidate. Which I think is correct..
🐾BillinGlendaleCA
@Geminid: The problem DeSantis will have is that he is a politician, Trump got out quite a few folk out to vote because he wasn’t a politician. Can DeSantis appeal to those voters?
Princess
@Geminid: yeah and Republican elites wanted Jeb! too. I think they’re going to find a lot of people are very attached to Trump, even though maybe an equal number are fed up with him. They’re best bet might be a Trump indictment — but I don’t even think that will put his base off.
The Moar You Know
@artem1s: Will never happen. He will never settle for being the #2 guy. He is literally psychologically incapable of that.
Geminid
@ian: The map Springfield Democrats drew for Illinois was as much or more blatant a gerrymander than the one Albany Democrats cooked up. That one wasn’t struck down, though: different court, different state law.
And it’s possible the Illinois judges took notice of Watergirl’s desperate pleas to rid her of Rodney Davis!
Tony G
@Matt McIrvin: I’m old enough to remember that admonition — before answering machines (let alone voice-mail) existed. Since the advent of the widespread availability of answering machines (about forty years ago) there really is no urgency in answering the phone — and since the onslaught of spam calls within the past twenty years, most people don’t pick up the phone unless they recognize the caller. To me, that means that telephone polling has been mostly useless for the past decade or two.
WaterGirl
@Geminid: LOL. I bet she got called that in grade school.
Geminid
@Princess: Trump took Republican elites by surprise in 2016. They know he’s coming this time. And Jeb Bush was the kind of moderate conservatives the tea party types hate with a passion, but DeSantis is not.
I think word is spreading among the well-networked political bible thumpers that DeSantis is one of them. They know Trump is faking it. DeSantis might be too, but it’s not so obvious.
Sure, there are fervent Trump followers. We see them at the rallies. But the few Republicans I know are not at all like that. They’re fed up with Trump as a person, and as a politician, they don’t think he’s a winner and a winner is what they want.
I’m not saying DeSantis will beat Trump. For one thing, Christie and Pompeo will probably make the race also, and could split the non-Trump vote. But I do not believe Trump will have it easy. He’ll have to fight for that nomination, and he may not be up to the task.
dr. luba
@James E Powell: My mother is 90, and she does not answer calls placed from unknown numbers……except to occasionally yell at them. Many of her friends do the same (well, perhaps not the yelling at part).
Shana
@sab: I always answer because I’m often contacted by campaign staffers who come from everywhere and therefore their numbers aren’t local, but most of my calls in the last year are from real estate agents trying to buy our house (we’re not moving).
tokyokie
We drove through Pueblo, the largest city in Boebert’s district, and it looked horrible. It didn’t seem like a single business remained open in the entire downtown. Pueblo’s principal industry is specialty steelmaking, and it is one of only three places in the United States that produces steel for train rails. And the Biden infrastructure bill calls for a significant expansion of the nation’s rail capacity.
And, of course, Boebert voted against the bill. Voted against employment for thousands of her constituents. Directly voted against the interests of the only sizable city in her district. Sometimes, even if you see public office as a performative stage, you need to consider the actual conditions on the ground of the area you represent, no matter how little time you spend tending to your official duties. Boebert didn’t, and she deserved to lose.
phein63
@Delk: 63, and two weeks ago my 61-year old baby brother showed me how to silence calls from non-contact numbers. I will then google the number, and if it’s an entity I would like to talk to, I add them to the contacts.
happygrovite
The reason we have no $$ for affordable housing, immigration reform, health care, etc, is because billions and billions are spent on campaigns. It’s unsustainable.