The future of reproductive freedom in Wisconsin is already in the courts. The state Supreme Court will have the final say. But before it does, the voters of Wisconsin will have the final say on who gets to serve on the state Supreme Court.
If you care about the future of freedom in Wisconsin, vote for Judge Janet Protasiewicz. The alternative is a return to the darkest realities of 1849.
Ben Wikler’s Op Ed from April 1
After the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, Wisconsin entered a legal limbo: Was the 1849 law back in effect, or not? No hospital or clinic could take the chance of guessing wrong. So all providers in Wisconsin stopped providing abortion care. OB-GYN programs started sending students out of state to complete their training. The existing shortage of OB-GYN clinicians will grow worse; in some places, labor and delivery services are already shutting down.
Gov. Tony Evers and Attorney General Josh Kaul sued to stop this archaic law from going into effect. Their argument is legally straightforward: The more recent laws about abortion clearly supersede the 1849 law, meaning the 1849 law should be tossed out.
That case is now moving its way through lower courts, but sooner or later, it’s likely to wind up in the Wisconsin Supreme Court. And when it does, we already know what the vote will be: 4-3. The question that will be determined on April 4 is which side in the case will have three votes, and which side will have four.
If Wisconsin’s Supreme Court takes the law and constitution seriously, as we know Judge Janet Protasiewicz would do, then experts believe that there’s a clear-cut legal case for voiding the 1849 ban. But if the Supreme Court continues its pattern of far-right judicial activism, inventing legal excuses to advance the ultra-MAGA agenda, then it’s a near-certainty that the Supreme Court would declare the 1849 criminal abortion ban to be enforceable, more recent laws be damned.
That’s exactly why far-right groups are going to the mat to put Dan Kelly back on the Supreme Court. Wisconsin Right to Life, one of the state’s leading anti-abortion groups, summed it up on the very web page where Dan Kelly’s endorsement appears: Wisconsin Right to Life only endorse candidates “who have pledged to champion pro-life values and stand with Wisconsin Right to Life’s legislative strategy.”
Judge Janet will give all litigants a fair shake — something that Dan Kelly has proven he is unable to do. On this case, and on every other case that will come before the court in the next 10 years, fairness is just what we need.
The future of reproductive freedom in Wisconsin is already in the courts. The state Supreme Court will have the final say. But before it does, the voters of Wisconsin will have the final say on who gets to serve on the state Supreme Court.
If you care about the future of freedom in Wisconsin, vote for Judge Janet Protasiewicz. The alternative is a return to the darkest realities of 1849.
Link to the full article is in the tweet below.
New op-ed, by me: Abortion is the defining issue in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race.
If you care about the future of freedom in Wisconsin, vote for Judge Janet Protasiewicz.https://t.co/voGIWBNn4X
— Ben Wikler (@benwikler) April 3, 2023
WaterGirl
Republicans have put up $2 million in the final two weeks of this race.
So I added the thermometer to the post. Can we show Wis*Dems some love to help get them over the finish line?
Alison Rose
I don’t know anyone in Wisconsin but I’ve shared stuff about this election on FB in case anyone I know does. Keeping all my fingers crossed.
WaterGirl
@Alison Rose: Yeah, if everyone on social media could share the link to this post, or share Ben Wikler’s tweet, or put up something of your own to share how important this election is.
Joy in FL
I donated a bit just now on our thermometer. Thanks for the prompt to do that.
Also I retweeted Ben Wikler’s tweet.
Bill K
I’m in Wisconsin and all the momentum so far has been for the Dems. I’ve seen TV ads, texts and gotten visits from Dems, but the only thing I see from the Repubs are mail flyers and Twitter falsehoods.
scribbler
Already voted for Judge Janet. I hope we’ve all done enough to get her get through!
ETA: I’m also crossing my fingers for Jodi Habush Sinykin to win her state Senate race. The guy she’s running against is just another terrible RWNJ.
WaterGirl
@scribbler: Not to mention the state senate race in SD-8. The shitty authoritarian bastard running on the Republican side is threatening to impeach Judge Janet if he wins.
WaterGirl
@Joy in FL: @Bill K: Every little bit helps!
I worry about all the lies and the dark money that’s going into this race from the Republicans.
scribbler
@WaterGirl: Ha! I had just added that to my comment above!
zhena gogolia
Busy at work so I’m probably not the first to post this, but Randy Rainbow has really knocked it out of the park:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ues8ycOxXKM
Omnes Omnibus
@Bill K: That is my experience as well. But let’s not get complacent.
UncleEbeneezer
Tick tock, tick tock…
WaterGirl
@scribbler: And that if the Republican candidate for SD-8 wins, that gives the Rs a 2/3 majority in both houses in the state, so they could impeach the governor, the secretary of state, judges they don’t like, etc.
Wolvesvalley
@scribbler: Yes to Jodi Habush Sinykin for Wisconsin State Senate. I sent her $100 last week and this weekend the DLCC sent an email mentioning her specifically so I sent them another $75. Here is her campaign website, in case last-minute money will help.
ETA I hadn’t seen that the BJ thermometer mentions SD-8, but I think a direct link to Jody’s campaign deserves to be available.
Dangerman
4/4 is my Father’s Birthday. Well, woulda been his Birthday.
Since I’m a proven psychic (Oujia Board), I know my Father has blown out the Candles up there and says:
1) Happy Indictment Day
2) Vote Blue for Wisconsin Supreme Court (seriously, I’m on my phone and have no chance of spelling that name right), which I’m quite sure is because my Mother is right beside him (my Mother did not talk politics, ever, but she let it slip once, very clearly with a few words I wasn’t allowed to use as a Child, on Abortion Rights)
3) Baud 2024
WaterGirl
@Wolvesvalley: I’m sure Wis*Dems is working to get out the vote for both candidates, but Judge Janet is state-wide and Jodi is just SD-8, so I’m sure that Jodi could use donations to her campaign.
UncleEbeneezer
@UncleEbeneezer: Note this is only FoxNews reporting so (big ass bag of grains of salt)
Jay
for those still on the Twitter, the Twitter Bird has been replaced when you load, with a NAFO dog.
BlueGuitarist
If anyone wants to phone bank (from anywhere) for Wisconsin Dems today and tomorrow
https://www.mobilize.us/wisdems/event/545075/
Another Scott
@Jay: Looks like it’s the Doge dog.
Cheers,
Scott.
rikyrah
COme on, Wisconsin!!
Trivia Man
Looks like some rain tomorrow, likely later in the day. Reaching out to remind your friends to think about their potential Wisconsin contacts could help.
Reminder: the last time a republican won a state Supreme Court seat here it was by LESS THAN an average of 1 vote per precinct.
Roger Moore
@Jay:
Sadly, that isn’t there because of its association with NAFO. The same image is used by Dogecoin, Elon Musk’s cryptocurrency of choice. As far as I know, both NAFO and Dogecoin got the image from a popular internet meme.
Dogecoin should be seen as proof of how ridiculous the whole cryptocurrency thing is. It was first created as a joke, making fun of the idea anyone could create a new cryptocurrency and people would start investing in it. Now it’s one of the biggest cryptocurrencies out there.
WaterGirl
@Another Scott: @Jay: I don’t understand. Were they hacked?
WaterGirl
@Trivia Man: Yes, that time (not the last election but the one before that) the R won by 1/2 of 1%.
Roger Moore
@WaterGirl:
No; they were taken over by a billionaire man-child.
Another Scott
@WaterGirl: It’s not clear to me, but I guess not. A tweet thread from about a year ago has Melon yucking it up with someone suggesting he buy Twitter and replace the bird with the doge.
Just another way for Melon to get eyeballs today, probably.
Cheers,
Scott.
Trivia Man
@Another Scott: maybe he thought April fools day should be celebrated in the next business day like other important holidays
Jim, Foolish Literalist
speaking of twitter, I am told there that all three major cable networks have been giving live coverage of trump’s journey from FL to NYC, the motorcades, the plane, the drive into Manhattan….
this is just about the only mention I’ve seen of what the actual POTUS is doing today
Omnes Omnibus
@Dangerman: Tomorrow is my Dad’s 80th.
cain
@WaterGirl:
They should use that for campaign ads – everyone hates a bully. Let’s see what this guy is going to do if we elect who we want?
Impeaching? For what – these people just use some random words. Impeaching means they had committed a crime. Being elected isn’t one although with these people they probably think it is.
Roger Moore
@Another Scott:
I don’t think it’s just an attempt to get eyeballs. Musk has a history of doing stuff involving Dogecoin, like funding a payload on a moon mission through Dogecoin. He also has a representative on the Dogecoin Foundation. Interestingly, and probably related, he just asked a court to dismiss a lawsuit against him for attempting to pump and dump Dogecoin.
cain
@Omnes Omnibus: Congrats to your dad! In our tradition, we have a ceremony and the mom and dad get re-married. :)
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I haven’t seen any Biden news since Trump announced his imminent arrest.
raven
Looks like they are after OJ again!!
raven
Oh wait. . .
Omnes Omnibus
@cain: We are going out to dinner and giving him presents. The big thing for him will be getting to be pater familias and having everyone around.
Mike in NC
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Assume that Trump plans to make some grand, theatrical entrance into NYC, similar to the dog-and-pony show the media gave us every day during the OJ trial. Then tomorrow night he’ll stir up the Proud Boys in a speech to take the country back.
Steeplejack
@zhena gogolia:
It’s a great one.
raven
@Omnes Omnibus: When my dad turned 80 we had a big too-doo in Phoenix and people flew in from all over the country. He spent almost the entire party talking to a guy who he had helped get his GED at the JC my dad tutored for!
raven
@Mike in NC: There doing it as we type.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: he was promoting the clean energy aspects of the IRA at a factory in Minneapolis, which FTR I think is very good politics. Catapult the filter into local media, as somebody said a while back.
Trivia Man
@Mike in NC: my hope: gag order, he’s not allowed to discuss any pending cases. Any chance at all he could refrain? Contempt charges!
Another Scott
@raven:
Something like 100M people watched the OJ “chase”. I’m sure DJ is hoping for similar ratings.
Bigly!!
I kinda wonder if his loving wife and children will be with him at the arrangement.
Cheers,
Scott.
eclare
@raven: Hahaha…that’s good. I was in a bar in ATL during that.
raven
@eclare: I was in Aderhold Hall!
Another Scott
@Trivia Man: Nah. We, as Popehat says, don’t want to turn this into some 1st Amendment case.
Let him run his yap, let him make threats. Anyone who threatens violence, or acts out, can join him in the slammer.
Eyes on the prizes.
Cheers,
Scott.
Dan B
@Another Scott: Eric is the only one in the plane with him, no Melania or Ivanka or Jr.
rikyrah
@Another Scott:
That’s bullshyt. Any other defendant, the judge says GAG ORDER. It means GAG ORDER. No bullshyt about the 1st Amendment. You follow the orders of the judge.
Steve in the ATL
@raven: I was thinking the exact same thing!
Dangerman
@Omnes Omnibus: My Father would have been 95.
Interesting how common birthdays pop up. I share birthday with Tiger Woods (he’s more consistent on the course), LeBron James (better hops, but since my vertical is measured in millimeters, that goes without saying) …
… but the one that blew me was a Dude I met totally at random. I mean, totally. Same birthday.
ETA : Just missed it. My Parents loved cards. My Mother was a quiet assassin with a cribbage board (and I’ve thought about tournaments for myself someday). Anyway, I was hoping for 52
ETA2: WG, a little help? Someone in BJ prison that gets me to 52?
Another Scott
@Dangerman:
It only takes 23 random people to have better than 50:50 odds that 2 of them share the same birthday.
Numbers are weird.
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
Moon team.
https://i.redd.it/xhsi49agwqra1.jpg
WaterGirl
@Steve in the ATL: I was one of the 10 people in the US that missed the whole OJ chase.
I was in a cabin in Wisconsin (don’t forget to vote!) and had absolutely no idea what was happening anywhere else.
Matt McIrvin
@Roger Moore: On Twitter they’re speculating he did it to try to contaminate search results about the lawsuit.
WaterGirl
@Baud: I see Tom Cruise and his twin, who is the woman and who is the black guy?
WaterGirl
@Dangerman: Hoping for 52? I must have missed something.
smith
And another one: my mother would have been 100 tomorrow.
Another Scott
@WaterGirl:
NASA.gov:
(More at the link.)
IOW, they won’t be landing on the Moon that mission, but it’s still very important!
HTH!
Cheers,
Scott.
misterpuff
@Dangerman: Dangerman, you share a birthday with me!
Bet I spot you some years, Mr. December 30th. But maybe not if your Dad would have been 95.
1956 is the year and the year is 1956. (for me)
MagdaInBlack
@WaterGirl: Cue the whining and pearl clutching about diversity. Tucker will loose his mind. Again.
raven
@Another Scott: Artemis approves.
WaterGirl
@raven: I’m sure she’s honored!
Steeplejack
@Roger Moore:
Speaking of pumping:
Jim, Foolish Literalist
This is unbelievable, then I remember this is the state that sent Marsha Blackburn to the Senate
eclare
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Wild guess from someone in Memphis, they are all from Memphis, or at least cities. The rubes in Nashville LOVE to shit all over the cities.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
they joined in a chant
Roger Moore
@Matt McIrvin:
It doesn’t seem to be helping that much. If you search “Elon Musk Dogecoin”, you get lots of results about the lawsuit.
Dangerman
@WaterGirl: Deck of cards. My Folks were serious about cards. Which was passed down to me. I’ve tried my hand at counting cards but that didn’t last long because, one, it’s fairly fucking hard and, two, I didn’t have any desire to get a free trip to Security in a Casino. Card counters are very unwelcome in Casinos for obvious reasons.
Dangerman
@misterpuff: Not far off. 1960.
eclare
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yep all cities. Knoxville isn’t that big, but it’s a college town. Don’t know if that district includes ORNL which has a lot of highly educated people.
lowtechcyclist
@Roger Moore:
The cool thing is, it’s driving some members of Elmo’s fan club straight up the wall, because they think it’s the NAFO dog, and are sure someone’s hacked them. Win!
louc
I read somewhere that a Black grassroots GOTV group is refusing to back the liberal Wisconsin judge because of she sentenced one of its organizers to a long prison sentence for a hit and run. How big of a deal is that group? Or is it mainstream media bothsiderisms?
Baud
@louc:
I don’t know, but there’s always someone doing something nutty.
WaterGirl
@Dangerman: Ah.
Kay
This is Elevated Access- it’s out of Illinois and is a A 501(c)3:
They don’t need non-pilot volunteers (they always need pilots) but they do need funds for fuel and fees if anyone wants to donate.
WaterGirl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: That can’t possibly be legal, can it? I mean sure, take their committee assignments away. But being expelled from the job you were elected to, for no good reason?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@WaterGirl: I don’t what recourse they could have, if the Feds could intervene
WaterGirl
@Kay: That’s wonderful.
Jay
@Dangerman:
a buddies Dad was a stockbroker and card counter. He was smart about it though, both the brokering, (VSE was scam city) and the card counting. He would head down to Vegas or Reno on a partially or fully comped trip, at least once a month.
He would head out with $10K, return with $12-$15K, often leaving $150K on the table. He just loved “the game”.
He gave a bunch of us one of his comped trips to Vegas, airfare, rental car, 2 suites, food and drink. So 8 of us headed down, got at van at the airport, spent the long weekend in Vegas, mountain biking, rock climbing and canyoneering south, coming back filthy, raiding the buffet and bar, passing out in the room and going hard the next day. I don’t think that any of us spent a penny in that casino.
Kirk Spencer
@louc: I thought it smelled of misogyny myself. The echo of wounded male pride; how dare SHE do that.
lowtechcyclist
@Another Scott:
Not weird at all when you think about it. A group of 23 people contains 253 distinct pairs of people. Given that there’s only 366 possible birthdays, it’s kinda weird that the number isn’t lower.
NotMax
@Jim, Foolish Literalist
If they’d dressed in drag they’d already be in the pokey.
Dan B
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: What these legislators did is perfectly lawful under the state constitution.
Dan B
@WaterGirl: Rep. Gloria Johnson posted a picture of the part of the constitution that states that verbal objections are allowed.
Steve in the ATL
@eclare:
Except for maybe Pulaski!
Roger Moore
@lowtechcyclist:
Not that weird. You aren’t trying to calculate the average number of pairs of people with the same birthday; you’re trying to calculate the probability there are zero such pairs. Since there’s the possibility there are 2 or more pairs of people with the same birthday, you need to have an average of more than 0.5 birthday pairs in order to have a >50% probability.
If you’re more mathy, you’d expect the probability there are exactly 0 such pairs to be about e^-(p/365), where p is the number of pairs. If e^-(p/365) < 0.5, that’s -p/365 < ln(0.5), or p/365 > ln(2), or p > 252.999.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Dan B: so at least in theory they could sue the Speaker before the state Supreme Court?
eclare
@Steve in the ATL: I know I will feel like an idiot when you tell me why, but why?
prostratedragon
The truth bursts out:
Steve in the ATL
@eclare: where Nathan Bedford Forrest founded the KKK
Kathleen
@Omnes Omnibus: Happy Birthday to your father! It sounds like a lovely celebration is in store.
eclare
@Steve in the ATL: Thanks! Never would have considered Pulaski a city.
lowtechcyclist
@Roger Moore:
Or just say that since the chance that any given pair isn’t a match is 364/365, the odds that all 253 pairs are non-matches is (364/365)^253 = .4995, so P(at least one match) = .5005.
Roger Moore
@lowtechcyclist:
Of course this is just an approximation, since the pairs aren’t really independent.
rikyrah
@Kay:
Thank you, Kay.
WaterGirl
@Dan B: So then it’s not legal for them to kick them out?
Can you get kicked out for voting the “wrong” way?