Count me in. I am SO here for this race. https://t.co/HPCDuy8nNC
— Wendy Davis (@wendydavis) May 3, 2023
I have a weakness for the scrappy underdogs, so y’all tell me: Is this another doomed campaign? Or can Mr. Allred give Ted Cruz a reason to retire from politics to embrace his natural gifts as a far-right talk radio blatter?
U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, is set to challenge U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, for reelection in 2024 and could announce his campaign within days.
The former NFL player and civil rights lawyer has been a rising Democratic star in Congress. https://t.co/F7eaTJbvgM
— Texas Tribune (@TexasTribune) May 1, 2023
… Allred had been considering a campaign for months, and the launch was no surprise after it leaked out earlier this week that his announcement was imminent.
Allred’s campaign begins as an uphill battle. A Democrat hasn’t won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, and while Cruz’s 2018 reelection race against Beto O’Rourke was surprisingly tight, Democrats have not been able to replicate such a close contest since then.
“Some people say a Democrat can’t win in Texas,” Allred said in the video, which partly focused on his upbringing from the son of a single mother to NFL player. “Well, someone like me was never supposed to get this far.”
Cruz’s campaign responded by calling Allred “too extreme for Texas,” citing his faithful voting record with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi…
Sounds good to me already!
… Cruz has some of the highest job-approval ratings among Republicans in the state and has amassed considerable influence in the Senate since his last reelection. Cruz is now the top Republican on the Senate Commerce Committee and has evolved from conservative noisemaker to established right-wing brand. He regularly appears on conservative media, and his podcast, “Verdict with Ted Cruz,” has millions of listeners.
Allred went after Cruz’s celebrity status in his announcement, saying “he’ll do anything to get on Fox News but can’t be bothered to help keep rural Texas hospitals open.”
That will likely be a campaign theme, with Allred also focusing on growing up as the son of a working-class single mother who has been able to build bridges with both the business community and labor groups, having been endorsed previously by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the AFL-CIO labor union.
Allred is also a civil rights lawyer who worked at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development under former President Barack Obama. He first ran for Congress in 2018, unseating Republican Rep. Pete Sessions in the Dallas-based district.
Cruz is running for a third term in the Senate after toying with making another White House bid in 2024…
At least some Texas Democrats seem hopeful…
Democratic Rep. Colin Allred will challenge Senator Ted Cruz in the upcoming election, which will prove to be a contest between a guy most people haven’t heard of and an evil talking puppet https://t.co/DSR015kLns
— steven monacelli 🆓 (@stevanzetti) May 3, 2023
I don’t know if Colin Allred is the real deal, if he can really win statewide, but I’m heartened a great deal to see that he’s running, and I sincerely hope he makes some of the hard, unpopular within his base compromises that may be necessary to win statewide in Texas
— Lord Businessman (@BusinessmanLego) May 3, 2023
This is maybe a winnable race, and I think Texas DNC and leadership owe it to the Texas Democratic voters to really try to win, not fundraise a bunch for downticket stuff
— Lord Businessman (@BusinessmanLego) May 3, 2023
My preference would be for soft on guns and hard on abortion/pro choice issues, but I understand people differ. I’m willing to be open minded about what can work, as long as the end result is still recognizably a Democrat at the end of the day
— Lord Businessman (@BusinessmanLego) May 3, 2023
Lol someone is scared. https://t.co/sGqXDeoLDj
— The Biden Accomplishments Guy™ (@What46HasDone) May 2, 2023
Republicans won Texas in 2020 by less than they won Arizona or Georgia in 2012. And Texas has shifted left by as much as those states did over that time period.
To claim it’s not worth Dems’ money to invest there, even just for building a long-term ground game, is absurd.
— Matthew Chapman (@fawfulfan) May 4, 2023
Money spent better elsewhere imho.
As a Texan, I am excited and proud to have him as our candidate. I will donate my money and time to support him. I envision an endless stream of TV ads showing Cruz at the airport heading to Cancun during the killer freeze. I am not sure Cruz even gets to the general. He is reviled here and if someone with even a little name recognition decides to run on the Republican side then Cruz will not be the Republican nominee. It wouldn’t surprise me if Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick decides to run. He is a complete POS, but does not have Cruz’s baggage.
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
Cruz is really unlikable, and that was before the Cancun incident and before Dobbs.
In 2018 he won by a meager 2.6%. That is weak. Imagine what people would be saying if a Pelosi only won San Francisco by 2 points.
I think Matthew Chapman’s comment is an important one. It’s possible that Texas is just uncrackable, and we’ll never win there, but it has been trending in the right direction. It’s also a huge prize, which makes it potentially worthwhile investing there.
The biggest thing is that we can’t limit ourselves to safe and close states. We need to invest in places like Texas that seem like a big stretch today but are potentially winnable in the future. It’s critical to have a functioning party apparatus everywhere so we can take advantage when things swing our way.
I’m wishing him all the luck but am having having Amy McGrath and Sara Gideon flashbacks.
I think there are other flashbacks I could be having but those are the two that remember.
Bush won Texas by more than 21% in 2004. 16 years later, Trump won by less than 6%. Texas is becoming more urban by the year.
Adding, someone has to run against Cruz, might as well be Colin Allred.
@MikefromArlington: If everyone takes that attitude, then it’ll remain true permanently. Nothing changes if no one tries to change it.
I think his ad is brilliant, and I think he has the kind of story it’ll be really hard to turn into something scary or weak, especially from a whiny man baby like Cruz. Sure, it’s not a probability or maybe even a likelihood. But it’s a possibility, and the strength of any possibility depends largely on what other people invest in it.
I don’t see how anyone can rule out beating a guy who won by such a thin margin last time, especially with Dems narrowing the GOP margin of victory so substantially in the past two decades. It certainly doesn’t bear comparison to McConnell/McGrath, where there were large double-digit numbers to overcome from both Senate and presidential races.
The Dems can’t base their entire Senate strategy for ’24 around defense (i.e., simply trying to hold OH/MT/WV/AZ); if they don’t go on offense anywhere, they make it easier for Republicans. Unless I’m forgetting something, TX and FL (I know, the state is a nightmare, but Rick Scott only won by an eyelash) are the strongest pickup opportunities, and Allred is a first-rate candidate. Why would you pour cold water on this?
Georgia flipped. Who the Hell knows? Demographics change constantly, in both directions.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
I agree with those it’s worth it to build a long-term ground game in places like Texas. This isn’t like dumping money into a district like Marjorie Greene’s either. As noted by David Koch, Cruz only won by 2.6% in 2018
@MikefromArlington: It’s not zero-sum, so keep your demoralization to yourself, jack.
That said, I think the basic point is still valid. Texas has been trending a bit more purple over the past few elections, so it’s worth seeing if we can keep pushing the trend.
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch: True, but 2018 was a great year for Dems in terms of turnout. So who knows how it would work out otherwise.
@Roger Moore: I saw a comment on FB the other day that said Texas has been getting slightly bluer every year, and 2024 could be the year it finally turns.
I’m highly skeptical that a state that has elected Abbott as governor multiple times is going to turn blue that soon (if ever). But I fully agree that we need to pursue a 50-state strategy, as Howard Dean said way back when. We need to have a functional party in every state, even the impossible ones.
Allred looks like a great candidate, and one worth supporting even if he can’t win (this time). I do think Texas has at least the potential to turn blue eventually.
@Frankensteinbeck: Yep. And I always like to remind people that California only became a blue state around Clinton’s first election, and it’s not like it was as blue then as it is now.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Yup. It elected Schwarzenegger in 2003. Remember when R’s wanted to change the rules so he could run for president?
To put an even finer point on that: prior to Clinton, LBJ in his landslide was the only Dem who’d carried CA since FDR. The idea that it would be a cornerstone of the Dems’ Electoral College coalition was unthinkable as late as 1988.
Things, as they say, change. Sometimes quite quickly.
I would think that having been in the NFL will get Colin Allred a second look from some (men? Texans?) who would usually scoff at anything Democrat. And he is a well-spoken lawyer, on top of that.
He sounds like a great candidate. Team Colin.
hells littlest angel
I kicked in to Beto’s campaign. I’m reserving judgment on this one,
Patrick’s more popular than Cruz despite the investigations into Patrick? That’s both humorous and depressing.
It’s worth investing in Texas. Beto came close to beating Cruz in 2018. The margin of Republican presidential candidates victory was just 5.6% in 2020 compared to 21.3% in 2000 and 22.9% in 2004.
The issue with statewide races in Texas is overcoming the voter suppression and the new rules around Harris county.
Given the size of the population in Texas, the electoral votes, and a chance to have Democratic Senators, it’s worth investing in on the off chance some Democrat breaks through and wins statewide office. I’m just not going to hold my breath that it will be the next election or the election after that one.
Abbott won by 11% last year, after Uvalde. Uvalde itself voted for him. Yes, this is a losing campaign. Sorry, Texas isn’t turning blue, it’s a pipe dream right now.
The problem in Texas is voter suppression and it is getting worse. Allred is an excellent candidate who could win if we get people registered and to the polls. Money needs to be spent on those two things if he is to have a chance. Republicans in the Texas Lege right now are writing bills to disenfranchise urban voters. The organizations who are working to overcome these hurdles need money to get the job done.
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Barely. They soured on Schwarzenegger REAL fast. Schwarzenegger did not believe in Total War against the Black Guy. He liked green energy and eagerly accepted stimulus funds. These were unacceptable crimes.
I believe in competing everywhere with reasonable expectations and fundraising. As we have seen in many cycles, people like supporting candidates who run against the most visibly despicable with the result that good money gets washed down the drain. It doesn’t help that polls flood the zone and have been proven more and more unreliable.
I have family in Texas. The Democrats are looking to flee, having spent a couple of decades hoping the tide would turn, leaving the Republicans and evangelicals (no idea how they vote but pretty sure how they’re told to).
The gears are going to find new ways to grind down democratic turnout in the urban areas so major GOTV effort will be required to get rid of the odious Cruz, who couldn’t do less for his constituents if he tried. It’s worth a measured effort.
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): That mishegas was so bizarre. I mean, he at least wasn’t a far-right loon, but the whole recall thing was so fucking dumb.
I’ve just set up small recurring monthly donations on ActBlue with seven Senate candidates who are in close races, mostly holds, and Allred is the hopeful pickup (it’s good to start early when possible and helps with the ‘X donors/month’ metric). Allreds monthly is a little extra I wouldn’t have otherwise put into that pool, and I do think it’s a good little investment in trying to nudge Texas a little further blue this cycle; plus he would be a good Senator and MASSIVE improvement over Slimy McZodiac (R-Cancun) if we do have a better-than-expected year. We shouldn’t put massive amounts into lost causes against hated ‘thugs, especially at the expense of potential pickups (as a New Yorker I intend to donate to as many of the D candidates in the Biden->R congress
personional districts as I can afford once the candidates are announced), but I think Allred has potentially enough of a chance to make it worth a few clams.
(The other six Senators/candiates are Tester-MN, Brown-OH, Baldwin-WI, Gallego-AZ, Kaine-VA, and Rosen-NV)
@Alison Rose: it’s a great ad
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@syphonblue: Even if it doesn’t flip, make them fucking work for it.
And cracks are starting to show in the national Republican dam. If a landslide year ever could happen, the only way we could capitalize is to be ready to get out every vote in every state.
@hells littlest angel: see now I was never that sold on Beto. I liked him but never really thought he could win
Allred needs enough to get his message and voters out. He doesn’t need enough to make his consultants multi-millionaires. Knowing where that line is, in advance, is not obvious.
I’ll be donating, but not tonight. Virginia primary voting starts tomorrow (early, in-person).
@gene108: Interesting discussion. I do think that Texas will eventually crack, and that means that Republicans can never win nationally again. I have been getting emails every hour on the hour from Colin Allred. I like him and I will invest.
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation:
There’s no easy formula for allocating money, but let’s not talk down our candidates.
I’m surprised Nathan Mackenzie Brown didn’t include “As a native born Texan I think now is a good time to remind everyone that Ted Cruz is not, and wasn’t even born in the USA.”
@Captain C: Thank you thank you for Brown-OH. My Senator. He is popular in Ohio but we are red trumpys now.
I don’t know how to feel about this. GOPers who are loathed by their own voters keep getting re-elected by those same voters.
Allred is a terrific candidate, based on what we’ve seen so far; as a football player, he may even get another look from Texas voters.
But the voter suppression successes are real, the election nullification efforts are real, and I don’t rule out the GOP simply closing down all polling places in Democratic areas, knowing that not only the state government but the nearest Federal Court will have their backs.
Seems like a very hard lift.
I believe in a 50 state strategy (compete everywhere, don’t concede any seats if you have a decent candidate.) Even when Dems lose in Texas races, they are building a baseline of familiarity and trust, and paving the way for others. I’m feeling Allred more, after reading that he was a civil rights lawyer before winning a seat in the House. I may be wrong but I think that’s a great foundation.
I will probably do a contribution from my rapidly dwindling funds. But this story shows me how determined the Republicans are that the Dems won’t win. It also shows how scared they are that the Dems will win.
Can’t win if you don’t play.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I want to believe…
… that political gravity remains a law
Chris Hayes is about to discuss this, too
@Lumpy: I would love to see a debate between Allred and Cruz.
I would love even more to see them arm-wrestle for votes.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I feel you.
Make Cruz work for it. He’s still likely to win, but make the loser work for his seat.
At least be in a position to take advantage of unlikely events….
There is a lot of pie in this thread.
Ted Cruz sure brings out the wankers.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
Mmm…apple pie cheesecake…
The Moar You Know
50 state strategy works. It’s how you build the future.
if I were betting, this is a no-brainer, you bet on the GOP. But this isn’t betting.
@MikefromArlington: Folks said that about Georgia in 2020. I’m glad more voters disagreed and elected Ossoff and Warnock.
Two things I want BADLY. I want Stump in jail and I want Ted Cruz beaten like a toy-store drum.
We can’t ask for good candidates to run if we won’t support them. The Congressman looks like a good candidate. Remember, Beto lost, but he had great coattails, and they swept in a number of Democratic Judges.
Long before November 2024 Texas will probably have a 12-minute abortion ban on the books, so yeah, I think Cruz will be vulnerable.
What we have to do is stop donating when someone has enough. That is what is wasteful.
The question is, is this guy going to be one of those money magnets because Cruz is so loathed? Even if he wins, it might not be wise to send him money because everyone else will. I think it may be a little too soon to say, but keep an eye out. It can be wasteful to keep sending money to eventual winners too.
Some of the big established Dems pass on money to others to get them started. They don’t hoard. Maybe we should know which ones do that best. Maybe we should also try to research who has good judgement about the really early ones and try to follow them.
what about asking some democratic on the ground voter orgs in Texas what they think? We had contacts in some states, but not all last cycle. Maybe they know something or will after these ads have a chance to make an impression in Texas.
Have heard it said many times that Texas is a low turnout state. People don’t vote.
Money can help with that.
Also, Allred is a former Baylor football star. That matters alot in Texas.
His children being 5th Generation Texans matters.
His being handsome can’t hurt. His being likable helps.
He has a shot
Make the RNC have to work hard.
There appear to be a lot of people throwing anchors, stones, and other heavy weights to Thomas.
@hells littlest angel: Beto lost by 2.5 points. And that was BEFORE J6 and the deadly Texas Feb ice storm. A lot of Texans detested Cruz in ‘18; a lot more have seen who he really is since then – a lying sniveling coward who hid in a closet J6, abandoned his constituents during a deadly storm, and had to grovel down to Tucker when he was tongue-lashed for daring to call J6 an insurrection.
There’s a lot of time between now and Nov ‘24, so I’ll be watching Allred’s campaign – AND Cruz’s reaction.
I’m agnostic about it. Frankly, I salute the Democrats who are willing to hurl themselves into the breach, but then I keep thinking, “Beto and Allred seem like they are/were great Reps for their constituencies. That wasn’t enough for them?”
@Baud: He’s amazing! I wish he wasn’t in the AL West lol
Says the diehard M’s fan.
I don’t know enough about Texas to intelligently comment, but that won’t stop me. Allred seems more “authentically Texan,” whatever that means. I can see him appealing to independents or frustrated Republicans. I like Beto but he strikes me as a someone who would be more at home in Santa Monica than San Angelo.
@Lumpy: He also beat Pete Sessions in a huge upset. Sessions held that seat for 20 years and expected to eventually leave on HIS terms 😁
Allred will be the underdog no doubt. Also, 2022 saw most statewide GOPers winning by double digits or almost double digits, including Beto v. Abbott. Texas Hispanics are more Republican than California, New Mexico and Arizona. Only Florida Latinos are more Republican.
Nonetheless, this is a race worth working hard for and investing money in. 2024 needs to be about turn out and Abortion rights with a dash of fighting for democracy. Being a presidential election year will help goose turn out and Cruz is the most vulnerable statewide GOPer in Texas.
Win, lose or draw, the infrastructure needs to be rebuilt and the only way is to keep on keeping on.
Finally, I understand Allred will be required to give up his seat to run so I would not be surprised if he did lose to Cruz, he ended up in the Biden administration somewhere.
“I would love even more to see them arm-wrestle for votes.”
I would PAY to see that! Monies to the winner!
@Gvg: Sending up the Batsignal to WaterGirl! I agree with you, although I don’t think it can hurt to be some of the early donations then wait to see what happens. Early Money Is Like Yeast, as they say.
the HECK with Colin beating Ted Cruz, just gimme a bat…
also Beto said that he did better than other D statewide candidates because of good down ballot candidates – reverse coattails.
Allred running will likely encourage some good down ballot candidates to run.
Texas has an early filing date for candidates – mid December (Florida is mid June, some tba).
@Miss Bianca: O’Rourke’s El Paso seat was taken by political ally Veronica Escobar. She’s pretty good in her own right, and served as the powerful El Paso County Judge before succeeding her friend
Ms. Escobar’s Wikipedia entry is quite interesting. Sh was communications chief for a liberal El Paso mayor who lost reelection around 2004. Then Escobar, attorney Steve Gomez, activist Susie Bird and businessman Beto O’Rourke got together and made a plan to wrest political control of El Paso and El Paso County from its old guard. They succeeded, and came to be known locally as “the Progressives.”
speaking of good down ballot TX candidates, compelling statement yesterday by TX state rep James Talarico calling the TX 10 commandments bill “un-constitutional… un-American, [and] deeply un-Christian” with righteous elaboration, plus chapter and verse:
Texas resident for about 10 years here:
This state has changed a lot since I moved here. 2022 was not a good year for Dems but compare it to the last two Dem president midterms in 2014 and 2010: margins were 9-11 points for state wide office instead of 20+ We held on to almost all of our seats in the ledgislature, with the losses being due to gerrymandering instead of 2010 where the bottom fell out in horrific fashion.
We now own four of the five big urban counties in dominant fashion (in 2022 we re-elected a liberal 30-year old Latina against a very fashionable opponent for the judgeship in Harris county) The fifth big urban county is close to flipping and does sometimes in statewide races. We held on to most of our gains in the rapidly growing suburbs of Austin and Houston and north of Dallas is rather pinkish as well after going for Romney by 35 points.
Allerd took out a 10-term noxious incumbent in 2018 in the Dallas burbs. (Lizzie Fletcher wiped out another in west Houston). He is the real deal.
This isn’t Virginia circa 2017, but the underlying trends have been good for nearly a decade, and the areas where we are getting stronger are growing a lot faster than the areas where we are weak or potentially getting weaker.
I’m not saying we’re going to win, but I think the days where Texas Dems would lose statewide if they nominated Sam Houston (they did, twice in 2010 and 2014, and he was actually a solid candidate!) are behind us.
Escobar is excellent.
@Jackie: It wasn’t the hugest upset —that race was a toss-up — but you’re right that how quickly that seat flipped over from 2014 to 2018 was astonishing. Dems didn’t even bother running anyone in 2016, then everyone’s jaw hit the floor when Clinton carried the district by two points.
I mean, if I had to prognosticate, I would say that Allred winning is unlikely.
But, like, I still think it’s worth a really solid attempt. And not just because I HATE TED CRUZ WITH THE HOT FIRE OF A THOUSAND SUNS. Not just for that reason. It’s worth doing to build the party, and coattails, and all fifty states and blah blah blah I HATE TED CRUZ LAAAAAAWD I HATE TED CRUZ.
I want to see him humiliated.
Replace “Texas” with a “_____” and this is a perfect rotating tag. For the whole internet.
Mai Naem mobile
Allred was a football player and I think that may be his in to some voters. As much money as we blow on elections nationwide it doesn’t hurt to send some money to him, preferably for GOTV. Also, you may have the side benefit of pulling some other local/congressional seats over the line by pushing his GOTV.
Juanita Jean’s – The World’s Most Dangerous Beauty Salon, Inc. is in Texas:
It’s good that he’s running. Texas Democrats are paying attention.
I’ll kick in.I have contributed – if you go to the link in Juanita Jean’s post, your contribution is handled by ActBlue, where a lot of us are already registered.
We’ll see how it goes.
Careful! You run the risk of getting pied by the hive-mind.
ETA: No, I’m not ignoring/overlooking the rest of your comment, esp. your next sentence.
ETA2: That said, it’s a pretty good ad.
FYI, y’all, a story on NBCnews.com:
Colin Allred, the Texas Democrat seeking to oust Ted Cruz, raises more than $2 million in 36 hours
FYI, y’all, a headline on NBCnews.com:
Colin Allred, the Texas Democrat seeking to oust Ted Cruz, raises more than $2 million in 36 hours
My only theory about Texas is just a variation on a national theory I have. To wit:
Self-identified Christians are a smaller and smaller percentage of the electorate and population every year. The shift has been quite dramatic over the last ten or so years especially (recent news article). A significant number of people who no longer feel strongly Christian but feel somewhat guilty about that tend to assuage their conscience by being “pro-life” in general and in theory, which they have been convinced is a “Christian value”. (Even tho mainline denominations don’t generally condemn abortion in general). This allows these vaguely non-observant Christians to “care deeply” about a perceived core moral value without having to make any changes or hard choices themselves; “pro-life” in practice is just a hardship you impose on other people (always, in the case of “pro-life” men, and usually, in the case of pro-life women).
However, these semi-committed folks aren’t going to go crazy voting pro-life now that there is a Dobbs backlash and bad things are happening. In short I think the gung-ho religious right is not only shrinking, but also the commitment of half-heartedly Christian voters to a vague notion of general pro-life stance is going to weaken now that the actual, horrific consequences of state control over women’s bodies have been made real via Dobbs.
And that’s weakening the Republican vote. It weakens their turnout, and it also may shift the actual ballot choices made by moderate conservatives, as well. It definitely is shifting the voting choices of those who think of themselves as moderates.
This may affect Texas in unexpected ways. (Especially since the male-controlled mass media are REALLY BAD at predicting what women think and do)
Don’t count Texas out.
@BlueGuitarist: Thanks for posting that. I was going to post a link last night, but those one minute video clips are a bit much. I tried the Thread Reader App, but its the same thing there.
Also, I’d like to hear a bit more from the god-bothering woman who introduced the bill, if only to giggle and laugh at her “foundational this.. mumble mumble.., clean bill that.., mumble” nonsense.
As it’s an open thread today/yesterday is local elections day in Engerland.
First real test of what the electorate thinks since the last ones a year ago.
Pleasing to relate that the Tories are getting hammered and that Labour is doing very well
UK local elections
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
I remember how upset people were at all the money we threw at Joel Ossoff in 2017. People thought we just wasted all that money for a Senate race in Georgia. How foolish! Next time, though, he won. Not saying that will happen with this guy, but I’m not saying it won’t happen either.
Pod save america dudes have discussed the big benefits of making monthly donations early a key factor in Wisconsin election success. Ben Wickler runs some Dem operation there and that’s his mantra: monthly and early so planning can be made. I think Stacy Abrams also said this about electing Georgia Dems. $60 one time is less effective that $5 monthly. Might be a good approach for a TEXAN FOOTBALL STAR.
Tip O’Neill famously said, “All politics is local.” But the reality of our modern politics is that it’s shifting to all politics is national. There are far fewer ticket-splitters than there used to be. Allred’s chances in Texas will very much be hitched to how President Biden performs.
It’s this same reality that makes the 2024 Senatorial calendar so bleak looking for Democrats, with Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Jon Tester in Montana, and Joe Manchin in West Virginia running for reelection in red states. And we can only afford to lose one of those.
Let’s also not forget the elections in the swing states: the upcoming three-way dogfight in Arizona, and the reelection campaigns of Jackie Rosen in Nevada and Bob Casey in Pennsylvania. It’s worth remembering that the only Senator to win election of late in a state when the opposite party won the Presidency is Susan Collins of Maine.
The bottom line is that we first need to preserve the seats we have, because, unless we do, the Senate may be in GOP control until 2040.
O. Felix Culpa
As I recall, there have been voices calling for a 50-state strategy and those suggesting we not waste money on no-hopers, and then others pointing out that the two positions are somewhat contradictory.
Georgia is a good object lesson: we couldn’t win there until we did. So I’m all for supporting Allred. Figure out ways to get folks registered and voting. Get Dems organized on the ground. Work as if Allred could win–even though it’s Texas–and hopefully at least make it close. And who knows, he could be the next John Ossoff or Ralph Warnock. If not, at least he’s made Cruz work for his reelection and small “d” democracy will have been boosted a bit in a place where it’s seriously under threat.
Tip O’Neill famously asserted that “all politics is local.” Recent trends, however, say otherwise. Besides Susan Collins in Maine and Ron Johnson in Wisconsin (in an off year), all Senators have won in states won by the Presidential candidate. And next year, we have three Senators up for reelection in red states: Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Jon Tester in Montana, and Joe Manchin in West Virginia. In addition, we have Senators up for re-election in the swing states of Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And the open seat in Michigan. And the three-way dogfight in Arizona.
The Senate map is so grim that the GOP could hold the Senate until 2040.
The bottom line: Allred’s fate is tied to Biden’s in Texas and we face uphill battles elsewhere. So, before we send a bazillion dollars his way in what is essentially a hate Cruz campaign, let’s support the Democrats we already have.
As a native Texan I can confidently say ‘I don’t know’.
My gut feeling is that Texas is a lost cause. Hence my wife & I are making plans on leaving. Our Republican AG just easily won reelection and he is as crooked a person as has ever been in politics (Huey Long).
ICYMI, RollCall.com interview with Tina Smith (DSCC vice chair) (from May 4):
More at the link.