This isn’t a prediction, but my gut feeling is Trump is going to lose in November more decisively than generally supposed right now. I also believe his candidacy will have a measurably negative effect on his party’s fortunes, partly because of stuff like this: (Politico)
Donald Trump’s bid to oust a Florida Republican who backed Ron DeSantis over him is reviving a long-running GOP anxiety: that he can’t be dissuaded from the grudges and inflammatory rhetoric that plagued his party’s lawmakers during his first term.
Trump’s call for a challenger to Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Fla.), the only House Republican from DeSantis’ state to endorse the Florida governor in the primary, reveals a campaign with little interest in courting his former rivals and their supporters.
The article quotes sundry Republicans who are shocked — shocked! — that Trump seems indifferent to the electoral fate of any GOP candidate not named Donald J. Trump. But as the noxious orange fart cloud is fond of braying at his hate rallies, “You knew I was a snake when you took me in!”
Lee, the targeted rep in the Tampa Bay area, will likely win her primary. IIRC, the candidate filing deadline had already passed before the alleged political savant Trump tried to gin up a MAGA challenger.
But local Dems have identified an excellent candidate to oppose Lee in the general, Hillsborough County Commissioner Pat Kemp. I know Kemp a little from working with the Democratic Party in that county before we moved. Like all Florida districts, the 15th is heavily gerrymandered, but Kemp seems exactly the type of experienced and disciplined pol who could pull off an upset.
Anyhoo, some in the crappy national political media are finally noticing that substantial portions of the Republican base are still voting for Trump opponents in primaries long after those candidates flamed out, and these savvy pundits are belatedly concluding that this isn’t a positive sign for GOP unity. All I can say is welcome to the party, pals!
I’m not confident about anything. The past several years revealed the galloping stupidity and malevolence of a greater portion of our electorate than I fully comprehended before 2016.
But today, the Trump-led Republicans are failing on the basic blocking and tackling parties must do to succeed, like not turning the party institution into a personal grift operation and not gratuitously attacking incumbents with seats in a closely divided chamber. May they reap what they sow in abundance.
Open thread.