How screwed is Ron DeSantis right now? According to a NYT/Siena poll, this screwed:
Once heralded by the NYP as “DeFuture,” DeSantis gets 17% in the recent poll to Trump’s 54%. He’s shedding Repub support faster than his campaign can lay off Nazi meme-mavens.
The “gets things done” rating must really rankle Rancid DeMeatball, whose entire pitch is “competent fascist.” Still, there are things I do not understand, such as how Repubs find DeSantis — rigid, weird, peevish dickhead DeSantis! — more “likeable” than Trump.
I mean, I hate Hair Furor’s guts too and would immediately flee any venue he entered unless he was wheeled onstage while ball-gagged and in stocks and I was provided a basket of rotting produce to hurl. Still, I’m almost offended on his behalf. I’m also puzzled as to why polled Repubs rate Trump more likely to beat Biden, given that Biden already kicked Trump’s orange ass once.
Oh well. The usual caveats apply — it’s early, anything can happen, blah blah blah. But this poll is pretty humiliating for DeFailure. Good.
Open thread.
Sister Golden Bear
Frist
Waiting to see which “not Trump” candidate the billionaires start throwing money at.
Leto
@Sister Golden Bear: the best candidate would the the IRS. Fucking tax them into oblivion.
rikyrah
The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) tweeted at 2:00 PM on Mon, Jul 31, 2023:
A DeSantis ally spewing antisemitisic, racist, and homophobic language isn’t a shock to anyone who has been paying attention. DeSantis attracting support from such people isnt a coincidence either. Birds of a feather…
https://t.co/oCQB0cVjwZ
(https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1686089401263120384?t=isRGzdNHKVPU4mqnAom5aA&s=03)
rikyrah
Ronnie isn’t getting any small donor donations. His money is coming from fat cats. When will they decide that he’s a bad investment?
rikyrah
when your entire purpose is hate….go for the real thing, which is Dolt45.
Leto
@rikyrah: probably the same time that all the small
marksdonors decide funding Trumpov’s legal fees is a waste of their money.Alison Rose
I just…even if you share his shitass politics, how could anyone find that man “likable”???
JPL
@rikyrah: yup They need to ask his cult members the definition of strong.
Ken
There may be a cause-and-effect relationship here…
Dorothy A. Winsor
I’m having a hard time paying attention to anything that isn’t a Trump indictment. Come on!
NotMax
“Can we dig up Bob Dole?”
//
CaseyL
I can no longer understand or predict what will send starbursts down GOP voters’ collective legs.
Their mating preference is the ugliest personality and most repellent moral code.
I guess TFG wins by a hair on that one, since he is “more entertaining.”
JaySinWA
@Alison Rose: He’s their kind of guy? Deplorables seeing kindred spirits.
Ken
@Alison Rose: The odd one to me was “able to beat Joe Biden”, where DeSantis came in with less than half the support of the man who already lost to Biden once.
But I should remember, these are Republican primary voters, so not necessarily the sharpest spoons in the drawer.
Chief Oshkosh
This one is easy. They don’t think Biden beat him. They think Trump won. They truly, deeply believe this.
Falling Diphthong
I’m intrigued by the 16% who think DeSantis is more fun.
I sincerely hope that Tim Scott starts to garner more support, as he seems willing to run against Trump and Trump’s brand. Most of the people in the race are adoring Trump sychophants who just want to be conveniently on the ballot should he have to anoint a successor. DeSantis stood out for trying to run on “Trump isn’t Trumpy enough, I am the real Trump” which is just not a winning argument to a base that also has Trump as an option.
NotMax
Time to gussy up and
draghaul out “Feel the Ronmentum.”// :)
S Cerevisiae
I love that 30% bailed on the “fun” question. Neither one of those troglodytes is either fun or likable.
Lord Fartdaddy (Formerly, Mumphrey, Smedley Darlington Mingobat, et al.)
Yeah, I too saw “most likeable” and thought, “What the everloving, everlasting fuck?” Dude makes genital warts seem appealing.
Almost Retired
I would not want to spend my Saturday night with any of the 16% who think DeSantis is “fun.”
rikyrah
THIS is why I don’t wanna hear anything chastising us how we feel about The Turtle.
The openings existed because he did everything he could to block President Obama from being able to fill them.
Texas Tribune (@TexasTribune) tweeted at 1:08 PM on Mon, Jul 31, 2023:
Donald Trump entered office with more judicial vacancies than almost any president in U.S. history.
As the workhorse of the conservative legal movement, Texas was rewarded with more new federal district and appellate judges appointed than any other state. https://t.co/EdzFahCnuA
(https://twitter.com/TexasTribune/status/1686076267869716489?t=dhnq-y91nvx3VQaKPLqWoA&s=03)
JaySinWA
@Chief Oshkosh: Yes, they’re convinced “they was robbed”
wonkie
Republicans like assholes. They greatly prefer assholes over decent people. I think they perceive asshole behavior as “strong” and “gets things done.” They of course have no idea what things Trump got done. They likely know about taking kids from their parents, which is a horrible thing to do and thus appealing to Republicans. Other than that….I am surprised that they see DiSantis as more moral than Trump. I mean I’m surprised that so many of them are aware that Trump is not moral. I guess some of the stories about sexual assault got through.
Jeffro
I read that article and my main takeaway is that over half of the GOP primary electorate is a bunch of demented cretins who hate America.
My second takeaway is that the quarter of the party that is not open to trumpov better speak. the. hell. UP. I don’t care whether they’re motivated by impending electoral disaster or a sudden outbreak of putting their country over party for once, but holy cow they’d better do something, and quickly.
Karen S.
@rikyrah: That and Trump supporters love the drama, the circus atmosphere that follows their anointed orange fart cloud. They feel like they’re part of something momentous, cool, and IMPORTANT with tRump. PuddNBoots is weak sauce compared to that.
Alison Rose
@Ken: Honestly, I would love to see those two debate. Biden could alternate between Uncle Joe and Dark Brandon and Ronnie Puddin’ Boy would give us a redux of Nixon circa 1960 in his first debate with Kennedy…except of course he makes Nixon look like a fucking saint.
S Cerevisiae
It’s New Trump vs. Trump Classic, the base won’t settle for less than the Real Thing.
Jeffro
@rikyrah: Jennifer Rubin had a good piece up yesterday (I think it was yesterday…let me go check…yup, yesterday
that both a) complimented President Biden on the diversity of his judicial picks and b) called for expanding the federal judiciary in general (and in a relatively low-friction way)
To which I can only say: YES
Expansion is key whether it’s the federal judiciary, the House, the number of states, all of it.
wonkie
“I sincerely hope that Tim Scott starts to garner more support, as he seems willing to run against Trump and Trump’s brand. ”
I disagree. Scott, in my opinion, is their only viable candidate against Biden. Yes, he is better than Trump, though not by much. His personal life isn’t sleazy, but I don’t really care about that. His tone is not as aggressively hateful, but he will support the hater agenda. As for policy, he’s another pro-oligarchy, pro-polite fascism elitist and, as such, every bit the threat to democracy and the future as Trump.
Trump’s brand is a symptom, not the problem. Changing the brand only gives the illusion of actual change and that illusion is dangerous because it legitimizes the polite fascists and the Ayn Rand cultists as within the political norms
Going back to the pre-Trump Republican party means going back to the George Bush/Karl Rove/ Brett Kavanaugh/gerrymandering/voter suppression/abuse of power/serve the oligarchy party that was successful for decades because so few recognized it for what it was: politely fascist.
Betty Cracker
Nazi enthusiasm for DeSantis isn’t a new thing, and the way his hires in the state government and campaign spokespeople respond is telling. When Nazis hung antisemitic banners from highway overpasses and paraded around a GOP convention and theme park entrance with swastikas and DeSantis campaign swag, his spokespeople bristled at the suggestion that he should tell the Nazis to fuck off. How hard is that? “Fuck off, Nazis.” Just three little words.
Same thing happened when one of the speechwriters made a Nazi meme a couple of weeks ago. It’s not 100% clear that he was fired for that or one of the third of the campaign total who got shit-canned due to lack of funds. The official statement was that Hochman was no longer on the team and the campaign would not engage on the matter further.
That’s bullshit right there — every journalist, including Brett Baier, who’s interviewing Meatball soon, should ask about the Nazi symbol staffer. You shouldn’t get to duck questions like that, not even if you’re a Repub in a Fox News safe space.
NotMax
Pleased as punch to see DeSantis choke on woke.
Baud
Maybe it’s his smile.
Karen S.
@Falling Diphthong: I sort of see what you’re saying here, but Tim Scott is awful. He recently stirred himself to make some negative comments about DeMeatball’s assault on African American history in FL schools, so that’s fine, as far as it goes. Yet doesn’t seem to have any problems with anything else Meatball has done. Scott’s as bad as the rest of his GOP brethren.
Brachiator
A good chunk of these people believe the lies that Trump won the 2020 election.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Betty Cracker: You would think that “Nazis are bad” is an obvious answer.
NotMax
@Betty Cracker
“Nazis are people too, mein freund.”
//
karen marie
“Weak, small and reckless: how Ron DeSantis, Republican Napoleon, met his Waterloo” by Sidney Blumenthal over at The Guardian is delicious.
Ksmiami
@Karen S.: he’s rigidly anti abortion and hyper religious so no
Leto
@Jeffro: I mean, they do speak up? Idk, I see them on MSNBC shows all the time talking about how the party is fucked up and needs to right itself… but I don’t know what audience they’re talking to? Poll after poll (yes, it’s early but it’s been like this for almost 8 years now) shows the base loves them some traitor Trumpov. The “sane” R’s have already left the party and what’s left are the openly fascist shitstains. I don’t have any answers on how R’s can fix their party, other than fucking nuke it from orbit, everyone else keep voting D, and continuing to try to move forward as much as we can.
HumboldtBlue
@Karen S.:
He hates on and belittles and insults and denigrates and harms the people they want to see hated and belittled and insulted and denigrated and harmed.
It’s a rather simple dynamic, and Trump, the consummate conman, knows his marks.
Anonymous At Work
*reading latest polls numbers*
THIS must be what going insane feels like!
Cameron
Of course, DeSantis gets things done! How unfair to say he doesn’t! True, they’re all really shitty things, but…..
Cameron
Re Open Thread, in reading an online obit for Pee Wee Herman I saw that he grew up in Sarasota. Even went to theater school at the Asolo.
Brachiator
@rikyrah:
It says a lot about their bad judgement that they ever thought that he was a good investment.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
I’m encouraged that only 58% of the GOP think that Trump could beat Biden vs DeSantis. They think Biden is weak on gas prices, other inflation, and immigration. So they almost all uniformly think a GOP candidate will beat Biden. I also feel like the GOP has been in deep, deep denial about how much the rest of us HATE Trump with the fire of a million burning suns… that we will to a person crawl over poison coated broken glass to vote against that fascist, criminal f*cker. That number makes me wonder if it is finally sinking in.
scav
It is yet to be demonstrated if the modern GOP electorate even subscribes to the old definitions and ascribed values of morality and legality anymore. Defiant immorality and illegality could very well be no more than illustrations of their much vaunted Strength! I mean, they’re all already forgiven or excused on the basis that they’re better than demoncrats so who gives a shit about actual behavior anymore? And isn’t the very definition of amusement to watch a strong manly white man beat up on those weaker and necessarily beneath him? What’s not to like? All characteristics bow to power wielded freely and without consequence.
Old School
@Sister Golden Bear:
HuffPost says that other than Trump, billionaires have backed DeSantis and Christie and are considering Tim Scott.
Alison Rose
@Betty Cracker: Three more little words: Very fine people.
Cameron
@Betty Cracker: You’d think he’d let that swastika fly out and proud now that he’s established his very own Sturmabteilung.
Leto
@Cameron: the fact that Pee-Wee is dead and McConnell is still ghouling up the place… ffs.
rikyrah
Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) tweeted at 10:15 AM on Mon, Jul 31, 2023:
2024 National Republican Primary:
Trump 54% (+37)
DeSantis 17%
Pence 3%
Haley 3%
Scott 3%
Ramaswamy 2%
Christie 2%
Hutchinson 0%
Elder 0%
Burgum 0%
Suarez 0%
Hurd 0%
Johnson 0%
.
Head-2-Head:
Trump 62% (+31)
DeSantis 31%
.@SienaResearch/@nytimes, 932 LV, 7/23-27…
(https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1686032928919150592?t=OT-CfxOoIX1cUmj6qd6lrQ&s=03)
hells littlest angel
One shitty thing can be more likeable than another.
CliosFanBoy
Scott? A rightwing, Xtian, closeted gay Uncle Tom. Oye.
NotMax
re: above
A collection of clips of Dolt 45 supporters interviewed by RWNJ media at his latest shindig over the weekend.
Pity the children shown.
Soprano2
OT – I found this article through Eschaton and thought it was interesting. https://prospect.org/health/2023-07-31-my-life-in-corporate-medicine/
rikyrah
Now that we know with absolute certainty that Dolt45 is paying his legal bills from the election funds…
he’ll never drop out.
oldgold
The explanation for the odd results of this poll is that a high percentage of GOP primary voters suffer from a condition that Ron White has explained is not fixable. They are stupid.
NotMax
@Brachiator
Same gang who went all in on Scott Walker.
CliosFanBoy
@wonkie: They have redefined masculinity as “being a ass***e.” You see it with young rightwing males all the time.
dmsilev
Clearly, the donors need to start giving more to the most active and money-needing entity in the race, Trump’s legal defense fund.
Cameron
@Leto: I’m not sure McConnell was ever alive in the sense that we mortal humans understand such things.
Jeffro
@Leto: a couple of them, speaking up on MSNBC, is not the same as the 25% “speaking up”. It’s micro-peformative theater.
They have a collective action problem within a collective action problem, for sure.
In an ideal (well, ideal for the GOP) world, this 25% would unite, publicly, loudly, and tell the rest of the party “we will stay home (or vote Biden, or write in Zombie Reagan, or whatever) unless the rest of you agree to pick someone else”. The rest of the party would realize it’s going to lose badly without that 25%, and would settle for the next-most-MAGA guy, unify the party, and go forward with a decent chance of winning.
But (obvs) the 25% are not unified, they aren’t speaking up/out in any meaningful way, and trump’s mouth-breather base doesn’t care what they want anyway.
So…there you go, leopards: y’all go eat those faces one more time and see if folks learn anything this time around…
prostratedragon
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Boy howdy.
MattF
MAGA logic is inconsistent, but the usual path from there to absurdity— that if you accept a self-contradictory statement, you can then prove any statement— may be avoidable. There’s a philosophical school of ‘paraconsistent’ logic that claims to avoid full-scale inconsistency. You can look it up. I don’t claim to understand it, but you can see for yourself.
Cameron
Saw my first ‘Let’s Get Biden To Quit’ (Get it? Huh? Huh? Get it?) sticker on a pick-up (natch) in my development earlier today. Humor for those weak of mind and dead to empathy.
Jeffro
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
Probably a side-effect of 24/7 RWNJ media chest-beating and made-up negative stories about Uncle Joe.
110%. They just don’t get it: trump riles up their base but he riles up and unifies ours even more. He’s a wrestling heel in a suit: it’s practically his job.
NotMax
@Dorothy A. Winsor
Primarily linked because it’s also ketchup.
:)
rikyrah
ACLU (@ACLU) tweeted at 9:55 AM on Mon, Jul 31, 2023:
BREAKING: We’re suing to prevent Alabama from prosecuting those who assist people seeking legal abortion care in other states.
Health care providers have a right to counsel their patients on their options — and we have a right to travel to access legal abortion care.
(https://twitter.com/ACLU/status/1686027709753753600?t=I29pyLWEFJewpm8irdorsw&s=03)
Mai Naem mobileI
I think Glenn Youngkin comes in late in the process and takes it. He won Virginia, a blue purple state and he’s got the anti-woke thing going for the culture wars so all in all he at least doesn’t look like a loser. I saw a clip of Vivek Ramalamadingdong from CNN’s Sunday show. Apparently TFG’s crimes are process crimes and his attempt at deleting evidence is by definition a process crime. This guy is definitely somebody I want in charge of the country. I wish the hose had asked him if Hunter’s crimes are process crimes. Would Hunter be pardoned as well?
jonas
As a number of you have already pointed out, regardless of what it says about DeSantis’s (or anyone else’s) viability, the one thing this poll absolutely confirms is that the Republican base is simply bugfuck insane. These are not people connected to any objective reality. Who are the 37% who think Trump is “moral”? JFC.
zhena gogolia
@wonkie: Tim Scott can’t beat Biden.
MazeDancer
@Lord Fartdaddy (Formerly, Mumphrey, Smedley Darlington Mingobat, et al.):
45% think Tiny D is likable! More than Trump.
Truth told, there is no such thing as a likable MAGA GOP. They’re all mean and nasty. Lindsey Graham is as close to likable as the MAGA GOP gets.
dmsilev
@Mai Naem mobileI: Unless TFG drops dead, someone like Youngkin won’t have a chance with the GOP primary electorate. Sure, he’d be a stronger candidate in the general; as you point out, his win in Virginia is good evidence for that. But, the Virginia GOP had to resort to shenanigans to get him to be the nominee vs. the open lunatic that the base wanted, and it’s hard to see how that scales nationally.
feebog
How sick is the Republican party? Only 37% consider TFG “moral” yet he is the front runner by almost twice that. Party of family values my ass.
Catnaz
I think Repubs think Trump can beat Biden because they are told constantly by their preferred media that he did beat Biden
Sister Golden Bear
@CliosFanBoy:
Although that goes back quite a while — when I was at Berkeley four decades ago, College Republican bros competed to see who could be the biggest asshole.
Leto
@Jeffro:
Oh, so the MGT/Boobert/Beavis House strat? Unfortunately there is no 25%. There is no 5%. There’s the deluded who think they can step in and be the next cult leader without doing any of the work to rid themselves of the current cult leader. And as we’re noting here, going back to pre-Trumpov R’s just means “polite fascists” and the base absolutely does not want that.
rikyrah
@Mai Naem mobileI:
He has governed like a MAGA. He’s no different than the rest of the GOP
Mai Naem mobileI
@dmsilev: i just think at some point TFG’s legal issues will start affecting his number enough that an undamaged late entrant can take it. TFG’s trial dates come real close to important dates in the primary race. Ofcourse I at times find it unbelievable that this country voted TFG in so I am a crappy prognosticator.
Old School
@feebog:
Well, not as moral as DeSantis, but point taken.
Roger Moore
@Jeffro:
It sounds great until you realize there’s another part of the party, quite possibly bigger than the 25%, who will not accept anyone but Trump. All the 25% unifying, speaking up, and following through on their threats would achieve is to break the party. Great for America, perhaps, but not great for the Republican party. The real problem the 25% have is that many of them may hate Trump, but they aren’t willing to destroy the party in order to get rid of him.
Mai Naem mobileI
@rikyrah: that he’s governed like a MAGAt makes Youngkin a winner to MAGAts.
Geminid
@Mai Naem mobileI: Youngkin’s stock may take a hit in this fall’s legislative elections. His name won’t be on the ballot, but to some extent his reputation as a purple state prodigy will be.
Another reason for Youngkin to wait for 2028, when that election will be old news. But I bet he’d jump at the Veep spot.
Jeffro
@Leto: in that NYT piece, in the polling cited, 25% of the GOP primary electorate identifies as “not open to trump”. It doesn’t delve into their reasons, but there’s a quarter of the party’s primary voters who will not support him. That’s significant.
randy khan
@Alison Rose:
Yeah. And more likable than Trump, although I guess that’s kind of a sliding scale. Still, every time I see DeSantis it makes my skin crawl.
rikyrah
Seung Min Kim (@seungminkim) tweeted at 2:35 PM on Mon, Jul 31, 2023:
WASHINGTON (AP) — Biden decides to keep Space Command in Colorado, overturning Trump decision to move it to Alabama, officials tell AP.
(https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1686098232513015808?t=HUW_KTEG_Pd0RKZjJCic9A&s=03)
rikyrah
@Mai Naem mobileI:
Truth, but, I’m talking about a General Election.
If it walks like a MAGA
And talks like a MAGA
And governs like a MAGA
It’s not this mythical GOP Moderate that the MSM so desperately wants.
Mai Naem mobileI
@Roger Moore: so you’re saying the GOP needs a republican version of LBJ who’ll send a signal to MAGAts to leave the party.
MazeDancer
@rikyrah: Between abortion and Tuberville, of course Mr Biden decided not to move Space Command to Alabama.
Do stupid stuff, pay a price.
Jeffro
@Roger Moore: yes…”MAGA base” + “lean trump” = 54%. But that “not open to trump” group has real power, if if if…
Anyway, what I was describing is how it could come to pass under the GOP’s most ideal circumstances and with rational actors. What you’re describing is the real world, and I agree with you – the “not open to trump” bloc is not going to unify or speak up in any meaningful way, and so they and the MAGA base all going to get what they don’t want: another loss, and a destroyed party.
Mai Naem mobileI
@rikyrah: this was what I really thought the Tuberville hold on the military promotions was about. I’m glad Biden left it in Colorado. After all the Air Force Academy is in Colorado and you damn well know TFG moved it to Alabummer just for political reasons.
Roger Moore
@dmsilev:
It’s not even obvious that Youngkin would be a very strong candidate nationally. He was able to win as governor as a stealth candidate who didn’t have a governance record to run against. That only works once. Now he has a record, and it can and will be used against him in an election.
IMO this was Trump’s biggest single problem in 2020. In 2016, he had no record, so people who just wanted to vote against Hillary could project whatever they wanted onto him. In 2020, he had a term’s worth of actual stuff to run on. That wasn’t all bad for him- some of the Republicans who weren’t sure he was going to be sufficiently evil had their worries assuaged- but it was a negative overall.
Karen S.
@HumboldtBlue: Yep, and he makes it look cool and hip, in a mobbed-up, sleazy way, to do so.
Leto
@Jeffro: Well I’ll simply put it like this: I’ll believe it when I see it. Right now they can be “not open to trump” as much as they want, but come voting time, and Trumpov’s the nominee, they’ll fall in line like they did in 2016 and 2020. They can be as open as they want, but when it comes time to put those “feelings” into action, they always pull R no matter who’s there.
Gravenstone
@Cameron: Imagine the same sort of folks who want to try and force Biden out are likewise terrified at the prospect of a President Harris.
West of the Rockies
@NotMax:
DePinhead is like a 7th grade bully who calls people buttbreath and actually thinks he’s clever. Gretchen, stop trying to make woke happen. It’s not going to happen.
Jeffro
@rikyrah: not even with a fleece vest??? come on… ;)
Hit Smilin’ Glenn with the 3 Big Questions, snooze media!
That should clarify things quite nicely for the Millennials and Gen Z voters.
Omnes Omnibus
@Roger Moore:
It’s Scott Walkers all the way down.
Roger Moore
@Jeffro:
In practice, though, that means they’re not open to Trump in the primary. Most of them will still vote for him in November if he’s the nominee.
Jeffro
@Leto: fair point
Let’s see if we can get some “I just can’t do it again” trump-refuser stories out of the snooze media this time around. =)
Just one?
“In this midwest diner, a few long-time Republican voters are tired of losing with trump…”
Leto
@Mai Naem mobileI: The AF had already set up Colorado as the operational center of everything space related, so just in logistical terms alone it makes sense. Also when we’re talking about a bloated military budget, this farce needs to be folded back into it’s original component forces.
Leto
@Jeffro: haha, I was thinking the same thing. NYT obviously hasn’t run out of undiscovered mid-western diners so I’m sure they can find that one remorseful Trumpov voter…
rikyrah
@Jeffro:
I don’t believe this for one bit. These are the ones who miss Frank Luntz-approved dogwhistles, because they provided ‘plausible deniabilty.’
But, they always voted GOP.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Leto: Besides, we’re hearing about aliens. So you know. Space Force to the front lines.
Falling Diphthong
@wonkie: I am not a fan of Scott or his policies and wouldn’t vote for him. But I believe that he would not attempt to carry out a coup to remain in office, and that’s the level Trump has sunk us to. I’d like Republicans to return to offering up candidates who are not actively carrying out sedition, and don’t try to keep a slew of bonkers conspiracy theorists happy.
UncleEbeneezer
@rikyrah: The notion that DeSatan could even remotely challenge Trump’s popularity with GOP voters always seemed incredibly naive to me. DeSantis plays at being the school bully, but it’s a role that comes naturally to Trump, and GOP voters know the difference.
...now I try to be amused
@dmsilev:
As I understand it, the “shenanigans” were reverting to the old system of the party bosses deciding the nominee. As you say, good luck getting that past the MAGA base at the national level.
Roger Moore
@Jeffro:
The real situation with the GOP reminds me of what Lindsey Graham said about Trump in 2016, back when everyone assumed he would lose. Graham basically said that Republicans who didn’t like Trump still needed to stick by him. The party would survive if Trump lost the election; for a party to last at all it has to be able to survive losing. What it couldn’t survive is turning on itself. I think that’s what the anti-Trump people in the Republican party really feel. Even if they believe in their bones that Trump is awful and will lose the election, they still support the party. They may even privately plan on voting for someone else if Trump is nominated. But open rebellion like threatening to tank the election if they don’t get their way in the primary threatens to destroy the party, and that’s what they won’t accept.
Leto
@Dorothy A. Winsor: ah yes, all those… Space… Commandos (???) who are diligently scanning the sky with binoculars, developing the latest in anti-probing technology, and safeguarding our… water? Space Force!
West of the Rockies
@Roger Moore:
Question: of the 25% of Republicans who (claim they) will not vote for Trump, how many of them did vote for him in 2020?
Has that 75,000,000 figure (’20 Trump voters) actually shrunk?
UncleEbeneezer
@Sister Golden Bear: It was still very much true of the YR types I knew in college in ’95. They’d couch it in the usual Small Govt, Freedom and other Libertarian catch-phrases, but their behavior was always about simply being the biggest a-hole possible to marginalized groups.
West of the Rockies
@Falling Diphthong:
That’s a low f#*%ing bar.
Leto
@Falling Diphthong: why don’t you think he’d do that? I think what they all saw was his inability to carry the coup to completion, took notes, and are simply waiting to execute their own plan for it. I refuse to treat any of them as rational actors when none of them act rationally. You had a few days post 6th where they all said, Yes Trumpov is bad!, but they’ve all recircled the wagons. As Roger Moore pointed out at comment @108, all of them still support the party, the party is Trumpov, so we’re all one election away from another coup.
Captain C
@Karen S.:
I suspect to a lot of his supporters he’s still the boss from The Apprentice and/or the WWE wrestling millionaire guy, except now also Dear Leader.
gvg
@Jeffro: what makes you think they don’t want that? Frankly, the sane sort of oldfashioned republicans have either become democrats, or vote democrat or know the republican party needs to be destroyed. if they aren’t happy as conservative wing democrats, the latter is what they want.
The Lincoln party says that is their goal, outright destruction. some of them have said they vote democratic. They still call themselves republican because it gets them listened to by a few on the edge. I know they aren’t the most effective overall. They basically are aimed specifically not generally and we aren’t their target. I was struck be reading them say they intended total destruction.
I don’t think they are the only ones.
Matt McIrvin
Trump is the most likely of them to beat Biden, simply because the Republicans’ asshole core love him so much and will turn out for him. That may be true even if Trump is in prison.
different-church-lady
Forget DeSantis: four out of ten of their base think Trump can’t beat Biden and Trump’s underwater on likeable? That’s the real news.
Kent
From my point of view, DeSantis and Trump are equally deplorable for different reasons. And both would be a disaster. So the only question is which is the weakest candidate against Biden. And I suspect that is Trump. Since there is no way to sell Trump to independents in this day and age. He is who he is. DeSantis could possibly try to pull some sort of pivot. Trump can’t.
If there was some semi-normal GOPer in the field like say a Romney or McCain then I would feel differently. But there is zero chance that the GOP will ever nominate someone like that in 2024. To beat Trump or DeSantis you have to out-crazy them.
Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg
Christie has lost a fuckton of weight. He’s a New Jersey asshole, well spoken, connected to the business side of the GOP and Wall Street, got significant executive experience and will do a lot of GOP centric things but without the stench of overt corruption and incompetence. Plus, he staked out the “Fuck Trump” lane in a major way, so he can campaign on the “I alone am an honorable tough guy” message.
He wouldn’t be terrible at this.
Roger Moore
@Kent:
I don’t particularly care if one is more deplorable than the other. They’re both bad enough I just don’t care about the precise ordering.
Kent
@Roger Moore:
Right.
The only ranking that matters to me is who is least electable in a general election campaign.
Captain C
@Jeffro:
Literally, as per this WWE event with him and Vince McMahon.
Maxim
@gvg: Destroying the GOP is a pipe dream. It can’t be done.
The GOP exists as the political tool of a bunch of rich fascist assholes (ETA: who are voted for by a bunch of less-rich assholes). If the party changed its name, they’d still be in charge.
The only way for the GOP to truly end as a political force would be for all the evil fuckers funding it to die, and the vast majority of their heirs to be hardcore liberals, which would probably only happen as part of a global repudiation of right-wing extremism. Anything less, and it’ll just be another verse of the same old song.
We just have to keep beating them.
TriassicSands
DeSantis is more likeable than Trump. WTF? OK, neither one even reached the 50% level, but I can’t imagine anyone actually liking either one of them. I would have thought Trump would score in the 90-100% range, but then I figured cult members would always like their gurus. Never having been in a cult, I guess I have a lot to learn about sheep who are susceptible to being led around by con men (or women).
Jim, Foolish Literalist
If you’ve been anxiously waiting for the news from the latest Hunter Biden whistle blower
my favorite part is that no Republican could even be bothered to sit there
Redshift
@Jeffro:
That one’s easy, Youngkin has no beliefs at all, but he’s eager to sign any abortion bill that’s passed and put in front of him. Actually, I suspect that’s true of pretty much every issue; I don’t think he has any opinion on diversity or so-called CRT or trans people, he just followed the outrage machine to appeal to the rubes. In that way he’s more like TFG than DeSantis is.
TriassicSands
It’s not an actual likelihood that Trump will win, but simply that he is more likely than Mr. Personality Plus to beat Biden. On the other hand, Trump was sent my god to save us, so maybe they think the big guy will intervene after four years of communist rule by Hunter Biden and his puppet Dad, Joe.
EarthWindFire
@Mai Naem mobileI: DeSantis has governed like a MAGAt too, and more successfully than Youngkin. It’s gotten him precisely nowhere. And judging from how the rest of the field bears out in polling, I don’t see how the MAGAt base accepts a nice guy MAGAt in fleece clothing. Asshole is a feature, not a bug to these folks.
Dangerman
@NotMax: Good grief, can you imagine the insults Trump would toss at Bob Dole?
JaneE
The 37 or 40% of MAGA Republicans already think Trump beat Biden twice, so of course they think he could beat him again. They may even be correct in that Trump would do better than DeSantis.
I just want to know how many of the non-MAGA Republicans would still vote for Trump over Biden.
Shalimar
@Falling Diphthong: Read about how Tim Scott got into Republican politics. Creepy religious anti-sex nutter. He seems more affable than the rest until you dig beneath the facade. He’s just as fucked up as the rest of them.
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
“strong leader” – HA!
He didn’t pass anything. Even with a repub congress and senate during his first two years he couldn’t build “da Wall”, couldn’t get …. (checks notes)… Mexico to pay for it.
Then he became the first president to lose congress, the senate, and White House, all in a first term, since the Great Depression.
Keep fucking that chicken.
rikyrah
@Shalimar:
And, he is a 🦝🦝🦝
Ready to carry the water for White Supremacy
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
@Dangerman:
“He’s not a hero. He’s a loser. I like G.I.s who weren’t wounded saving another soldier. Choked like a dog at Monte Crisco. (sic)”
Omnes Omnibus
@Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg:
I don’t think that New Jersey asshole sells as well nationally as some of you do.
M31
well, sure he’s Trump and a criminal but OMG they’re going to take all your hard-earned money and give it to the minorities and take your guns and kill all the babeez and force your kids to be trans and be gay and herpaderparglebargle etc
Trump got more votes in 2020 than 2016, yes? so it’s all about getting our voters out and being energized despite being ground down by the fucking fuck the NYT and NPR etc.
TriassicSands
@JaneE:
Well said. I think a large number of Republicans think, “If only we could “rig” elections so they would be “legitimate,” Democrats would never win again.”
Tony Jay
RoDS had one route to take the MAGOP away from Trump. Just one. He had to come at him hard and fast and relentlessly by calling him out as the loser who took all of the hopes and dreams of the people who elected him and pissed them all away by being an incompetent failure interested only in lying about non-existent successes while running penny-ante schemes to shove money into his own pocket, and never, ever slowing down until Trump was a smear in his rear view mirror.
Was it possible? Yes. Was it going to be easy? No. Was RoDS even remotely capable of pulling it off? Clearly not. But that was the only way to decouple Trump from the MAGOP base. Paint the failure as his alone and give the mob licence to look for another leader who would give them the same vindictive thrill without the stumbles.
Thankfully, the MAGOP doesn’t have anyone capable of that kind of discipline. That we know of. Yet. Probably.
Steve in the ATL
@Jeffro:
And 25% of the Democratic primary electorate identifies as “not open to RFK jr” so both sides!
Geminid
@…now I try to be amused: That year the Virginia Republican State Committee could not figure out a nomination method until the deadline. They could have let the state conduct a primary, but they were afraid state Senator Chase would win and drag the rest of the ticket into the Dismal Swamp. It was a pandemic year and they couldn’t run caucuses, so after so much wrangling they decided on a “drive through” convention at Liberty University in Lynchburg. They hadn’t asked Liberty though, and they said no.
So the Central Committee decided on a “Disassembled Convention” where people registered as Delegates on-line and then cast ranked-choice ballots at one of 37 sites. There was a very tight timetable for registration and the convention came soon after. That placed a premium on money and organization and Youngkin made the most of it.
At the time, the contrarian-conservative journal Bearing Drift had a good article on the nomination process. The author observed that while most state parties nominate by primary, and a few nominate by the caucus/convention method, Virginia’s Republican rules allow the State Committee to select either. This, he pointed out, allows a candidate to shape the result by influencing the process, and that is what Youngkin did, I believe.
But had there been a primary, I think Youngkin would have beaten Chase. He had plenty of money, and he was an energetic and plausible retail politician.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Shalimar: Tim Scott can fake nice, non-threatening guy longer than most of the GOP contenders, but after about seven minutes his inner Rick Santorum starts to show itself. He’d scare me if he had a wife and a couple of kids for the cameras.
Steve in the ATL
@Omnes Omnibus: concur—“time for traffic problems in Fort Lee” tells you all you need to know about him.
EarthWindFire
You forgot the last criteria: Make the base believe it. I don’t think Jesus Christ back from the dead himself could do that. This base is too invested in Trump as the almighty leader who gets cheated all the time. That’s the cognitive dissonance here. And why Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson are polling at 1 or zero.
Geminid
But I repeat myself.
Roger Moore
@TriassicSands:
I’m sure a lot of Republicans think what they’re doing is straightening out elections, not rigging them. They’re wrong of course, but that’s what they tell themselves.
It’s not just the kind of Republican you’d think of who sees things this way, either. I remember one of the NPR hosts shortly after Obama took office questioning whether his administration was really legitimate, since it hadn’t won a majority of the White vote. It sounds less racist than flat out saying minorities shouldn’t be allowed to vote, but it amounts to the same thing. If the only way to be legitimate is to win a majority of the White vote, why even bother to let minorities vote?
BC in Illinois
@Tony Jay:
They were hoping that Ron would just sweep over all of their hearts . . .
waspuppet
@Roger Moore: Precisely.
Also, never forget that this is the party of Jan. 6. By “beat Biden,” they don’t necessarily mean “get more votes than Biden.”
Tony Jay
@EarthWindFire:
Except… here’s the thing. The MAGOP faithful are quite capable of telling themselves whatever they need to believe at that particular moment and totally believing it, if they’ve got someone telling them it’s okay to believe it and – most importantly – it pisses off the Libs.
Trump = Failure. Trump’s failure, not their failure. And the Libs want Trump to be the GOP candidate, because they want to campaign against his failures. Failures that a smarter, more capable candidate wouldn’t repeat.
They should have been hammering that angle over and over and over again for the last six months, tying it into Trump’s many legal failures, etc etc. But they didn’t, because they’re failures too.
Geminid
@Kent: One good thing about a Trump candidacy is that it would take the age issue off the board.
I think that’s a reason that Republican elites hoped that DeSantis would be a strong candidate. DeSantis has shown he is not though, and that leaves the elites with nowhere to go. Except “down into the storm cellar,” as one Republican told Politico, “to ride out the tornado.”
FelonyGovt
Lone Skum takes the X sign down.
Betty Cracker
@Omnes Omnibus: After growing up hearing locals heap derision on Northern transplants, I assumed Trump’s New York tough guy shtick would repel Southerners. Boy was I wrong!
Christie’s not going anywhere because he crossed the cult leader, but if he could magically bypass the Repub base and become the nominee, I think he could win. Anecdata, etc., but he comes across as reasonable to the normies I know.
zhena gogolia
@Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg: Not a chance. Hugged Obama.
Matt McIrvin
@Geminid: Though DeSantis is one of these guys who looks far older than he is. I kind of am too (mostly because I’m bald and have a graying beard) so i can sympathize.
Omnes Omnibus
@Betty Cracker: I disagree. I think Trump is sui generis. Christie is a garden variety NJ asshole. I don’t think he will have much appeal outside his region.
M31
@Omnes Omnibus: Didn’t Christie leave office with about a 19% approval rating? he doesn’t play well even in his own region lol
his true region is the Meet the Press greenroom and wherever Politico reporters hang out
Geminid
@Omnes Omnibus: I could see Christie winning a plurality in my state, because it has an open primary and Christie might attract Independents. I don’t see him winning many delegates outside the states from Virginia to the northeast, though.
I think Christie’s main impact will be as a wrecking ball.
Geminid
@Betty Cracker: The Republican base will tag Christie as a “RINO.” Christie actually does resemble a rhino and I’m hoping he acts like one and gores some elephants.
frosty
@karen marie:
I tried, but I bailed. Too many words. More specifically, too many words about DeSantis, and the rest of the assholes. Life’s too short.
Steeplejack
@Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg:
“Christie has lost a fuckton of weight”?! This is him a week ago. I have seen previous pictures in the past where it looked like he had lost some weight, but lately he looks like he’s put it all back on.
JustRuss
@jonas: What gets me is that almost 2/3 of them DON’T think he’s moral, but can’t wait to vote for him.
Mai Naem mobileI
@FelonyGovt: it is an ugly logo. Not getting it at all. I can’t believe the new CEO didn’t manage to say something to dissuade him from using it. Looks like a private underground neonazi/kinky klan sex/BDSM club logo.
Miss Bianca
@…now I try to be amused: I dunno, the CO Republican Party is trying to revert to the party boss style. We shall see how that works out…
RSA
For a poll of the general electorate, “punchable” would be a good substitution.
TriassicSands
Yep, and that’s how the Framers of the so-called “greatest country on Earth” on in mind. We’ve come a long way, but some people never will.
Ken
About a day after the “X” was unveiled*, I saw a post with about 20 “X” logos in a grid, and the caption “All but one of these are porn sites.” This was of course before the incident where one of Musk’s paid blue-checks posted child porn to X-twitter.
* Is “unveiled” the right word for a symbol that’s been in Unicode for over a decade?
Jinchi
54% think tfg is fun but only 43% think he’s likeable?
Who thinks it’s fun to be around someone they don’t like?
Citizen Alan
@EarthWindFire:
Well of course jesus christ couldn’t reach the maga voters! They’ve all taken the mark of the beast already!
Paul in KY
@Falling Diphthong: I despise TFG and only wish him sorrow, but even I think he would be more ‘fun’ to be around than DeSatanis.
Paul in KY
@Alison Rose: He makes Dick Nixon seem like a cool, likable dude to pal around with.
Paul in KY
@Mai Naem mobileI: The ‘process’ of stealing classified info and selling it to our enemies. Thus, also, the ‘process’ of becoming a traitorous POS (which he probably was already. Certainly the POS part).
Paul in KY
@Tony Jay: They are scared to death about some nickname TFG will give them! Jeezus! Give him one: LoserMcLoserton.