Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The cruelty is the point; the law be damned.

Jack be nimble, jack be quick, hurry up and indict this prick.

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

Schmidt just says fuck it, opens a tea shop.

It may be funny to you motherfucker, but it’s not funny to me.

The Supreme Court cannot be allowed to become the ultimate, unaccountable arbiter of everything.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

Battle won, war still ongoing.

Not all heroes wear capes.

Thanks for reminding me that Van Jones needs to be slapped.

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the GOP

Spilling the end game before they can coat it in frankl luntz-approved dogwhistles.

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

If you are still in the GOP, you are an extremist.

Bark louder, little dog.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

A lot of Dems talk about what the media tells them to talk about. Not helpful.

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

… among the most cringeworthy communications in the history of the alphabet!

Optimism opens the door to great things.

In short, I come down firmly on all sides of the issue.

You are here: Home / 2024 Elections / Polling Odds and Ends (Open Thread)

Polling Odds and Ends (Open Thread)

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From The Hill:

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s support in the Republican presidential primary slipped to its lowest level this year, according to a new Quinnipiac University national poll released Wednesday.

Eighteen percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters said they supported the Florida governor, which is his lowest level of support in Quinnipiac’s polling of the GOP primary this year. Former President Trump, on the other hand, clocked in at a whopping 57 percent support among Republican and Republican-leaning voters. Quinnipiac noted that DeSantis was only 6 points behind the former president in February, but now he finds himself trailing Trump by 39 points.

Live shot of me savoring news about the DeSantis 2024 campaign blowing up:

I won’t relax until he drops out and slinks back home. But you love to see it!

Speaking of people who are SO fucked but whose fucked-ness you can’t ever take for granted but can nonetheless savor in the moment, take a look at the poll findings on Repub frontrunner / criminal defendant / orange ass-pustule Donald J. Trump:

In the wake of a federal indictment accusing former President Donald Trump of attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, Americans 54 – 42 percent think Trump should be prosecuted on criminal charges, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University national poll released today. Democrats (95 – 5 percent) and independents (57 – 37 percent) think the former president should be prosecuted on criminal charges for allegedly attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, while Republicans (85 – 12 percent) think Trump should not be prosecuted. The poll was conducted from August 10th through August 14th.

My feeling is the Repub Party is in deeper doo-doo than generally acknowledged. That’s not to say they can’t or won’t win or that Dems should in any way take anything for granted or approach next year’s election with any degree of complacency.

But maybe it’s worth stepping back and looking at the big picture, if only for entertainment value.

Open thread.

Reader Interactions

197Comments

  2. 2.

    Yarrow

    My feeling is the Repub Party is in deeper doo-doo than generally acknowledged.

    Agreed. And now is the time to take advantage of that and crush them.

  3. 3.

    misterpuff

    LOCK HIM UP! LOCK HIM UP! LOCK HIM UP!

     

    BTW has anyone seen Michael Flynn (or his brother) lately?

  4. 4.

    bbleh

    Been saying for a while that TFG is more of an asset for Dems than for Reps this time around.

    But the usual caveats apply: polls this far out at best measure tribal affiliation, best bang for the buck is turning Dem-leaning NON-voters into voters (with a side of doing the reverse for Reps), it still likely will turn on uncontrollable events like economic swings, and a victory ain’t gonna happen by itself.

  5. 5.

    Chris

    My feeling is the Repub Party is in deeper doo-doo than generally acknowledged. That’s not to say they can’t or won’t win or that Dems should in any way take anything for granted or approach next year’s election with any degree of complacency.

    In a sane political system, the Republican Party would have entered minority status some time in the late nineties, and spent the last twenty years being at least as on-the-defensive as the Democratic Party was through the seventies and eighties.

  7. 7.

    Jeffro

    something something dildo of consequences something something else

    sorry GOP but ya more than earned it!

    Yarrow: now is the time to take advantage of that and crush them.

    also THIS

  9. 9.

    Mai Naem mobileI

    I would like to know the percentages of Republicans and Independents in the sample.

  11. 11.

    Jeffro

    @Baud:

    Ron DeSantis might well be the media’s biggest failure when it comes to fluffing.

    Yup.  It’s a vastly bigger media-driven (or at least, media-enabled) flop than Scott Walker ever was.

    It’s nice that the media’s complicity here may actually have backfired on the GOP.  The party is rapidly running out of time to find a replacement for DeSantis as the trump alternative.

    GOOD

  13. 13.

    Caveatimperator

    @bbleh:

    I think this is going to remain the case as long as Trump is either still in trial during the election or has been convicted of something.

    Trump isn’t the incumbent, so he doesn’t have the advantage of people defaulting to the incumbent. The economy is in good shape and getting better.

    In 2016 people could project what beliefs they wanted onto Trump because he spewed so much nonsense. Now that he’s had time in office and tried to overthrow the government, that’s not possible anymore.

    Trump will only not become a major liability for the Republicans if he gets acquitted of everything or nearly everything.

  14. 14.

    RandomMonster

    I’m hoping Trump will lose even more approval once he’s televised sitting in the courtroom like a big loser pile of pud and his fans finally see him in a context where he can’t project his blowhard asshole image.

  17. 17.

    patrick II

    The good news for Trump about indictments is that it gives Trump something fresher and different to say rather than rehashing Hillary. He certainly can’t talk about his policies.
    The downside is that he is probably going to jail.​

  18. 18.

    Eunicecycle

    @misterpuff: less than two weeks ago he was in Cincinnati, rallying for the Yes side (wrong side) of the Ohio Issue 1 vote. I never heard what the turnout was but at least he was on the loser side.

  19. 19.

    NobodySpecial

    I’m gonna be that guy here: There is no honest way Trump becomes President in 2024.

    Of course, we should all work extra hard and show up – not because the outcome is in doubt, but because I want to run up the score on these criminals as much as possible. We should worry less about beating them as we should worry about burying them.

  21. 21.

    narya

    I’m looking at the Mifepristone decision, and I think they’re still going after the administrative state. I’m hoping the Strict Scrutiny folks can tell me I’m wrong.

  22. 22.

    MattF

    When things may blow up, there’s a surprisingly delicate distinction between merely becoming large rapidly and actual ‘rapid involuntary disassembly’, at least in the early stages. Right now is probably a bit too soon to tell.

  23. 23.

    Scout211

    Another poll by Emerson College has Christie in second place in New Hampshire.  Yes, Christy. Link

    Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) has surpassed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in the critical early presidential primary state of New Hampshire, according to an Emerson College survey released Tuesday.

    Christie leapfrogged DeSantis for second place in the Granite State, garnering 9 percent support. DeSantis’s support, on the other hand, fell to 8 percent from 17 percent in March. Christie’s 1-point lead over DeSantis falls within the poll’s plus-or-minus 3.4 percent margin of error.

    But second place is 9 percent!  That is truly sad. 🤣🤣🤣🤣

  24. 24.

    Jeffro

    Democrats (95 – 5 percent) think the former president should be prosecuted on criminal charges for allegedly attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.

    Man on the street interview, circa 2009:

    Interviewer: Fourteen years from now, prosecuting Donald trump for trying to overthrow the government in order to remain president is the Democratic Party’s most unifying issue, EVER.  95% to 5%.  Your thoughts?

    Man on the street: Are you high?  Get the eff out of here!  Donald Trump – president?  And then he tries to overthrow the government?  95-5?  What’s wrong with that 5%?

    Interviewer: sir, this is the Democratic Party we’re talking about…even 51% agreement would be historic.  =)

     

    Stick with it, Dems!  Reproductive rights + prosecuting trump + an actual plan to mitigate climate change = landslide

  25. 25.

    WaterGirl

    @Betty Cracker: I suspect that any Republican who thinks Trump should be held accountable is now identifying as Independent, even though they are routinely Republican.

    That could explain the numbers for Independents and for Republicans.

  26. 26.

    Jeffro

    @Scout211: “we’d rather see someone smack trump around than go with trump-lite”

    Policies?  What policies?

    Issues?  What issues?

    They just want to be entertained and get their snarl on.

  27. 27.

    Dangerman

    The Republicans should flush Trump (double flush, just to be sure) and take the beating that’s coming their way. Take the post Dobbs beatdown and the Trump be gone beatdown and hope for better days in 2028. They can not honestly (keyword) win.

  30. 30.

    NotMax

    Oh he’s got trouble
    That man from Tallahassee
    With a capital “T”
    And that rhymes with “P”
    And that stands for Poll
    .

  31. 31.

    RandomMonster

    @Betty Cracker: That number on independents jumped out at me too. It’s one poll, we’re a long way out, blah blah blah, but damn!

    Yeah, when that’s the number of independents who think he should be prosecuted, you have to imagine none of those people are voting for him! But as you say, long way out and so on.

  32. 32.

    Sister Golden Bear

    Ronbot glitches and shuts down.

    DeSantis Dodges Question About How He Would React If One Of His Kids Turns Out To Be Gay Or Transgender

    And when I ask how he’ll respond if one of his children turns out to be gay or trans, his eyes flash momentarily, and he swiftly shuts down the question. “Well, my children are my children,” DeSantis says. “We’ll leave that—we’ll leave that between my wife and I.”

    Privacy for me, jail for thee trans-supportive parents.

  33. 33.

    rikyrah

    My feeling is the Repub Party is in deeper doo-doo than generally acknowledged. That’s not to say they can’t or won’t win or that Dems should in any way take anything for granted or approach next year’s election with any degree of complacency.

     

    Goal is to crush them in every election in every jurisdiction. There is no such thing as a good Republican. Or a decent one. They all GOTTA GO!

  34. 34.

    japa21

    @Other MJS: ​
      All things considered, that is probably Trump’s high point. IOW, he can only go down from here. Biden, OTOH, has lots of room to move upward. Still early, but I am confident, which as OO likes to state, is not complacent.

  37. 37.

    bbleh

    @Betty Cracker: @OverTwistWillie: I have one in my family — once a Tea Partier, now avowedly an “independent.”

    These are the Rep-leaning people who can be converted from voters to non-voters, at least in the presidential race if (when) Trump is the nominee.  And that can make a material difference.

  39. 39.

    wjca

    @NobodySpecial:

    we should all work extra hard and show up – not because the outcome is in doubt, but because I want to run up the score on these criminals as much as possible.

    At least as important is driving turnout for the down-ballot races.  Democrats have been seriously negligent when it comes to state legislatures.  Gerrymandering will make it hard to reverse the situation.  But typically gerrymanders are done with only a 5%-10% margin for most seats, in order to maximize how many they win.  So a serious jump in turnout can unravel the whole thing.

  40. 40.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Other MJS:

    Hey, remember that Ohio Proposition 1 was tied in polling?  Finding and pushing whatever poll they can find that says Democrats should be scared is one of the national press’s most hallowed traditions.

  42. 42.

    laura

    @narya: Hell’s bells, look no farther than the Alabama Senator from Florida and his continuing hold on Military Command appointments. There’s a plan, in writing, to hollow out the administrative state and stock it with unaccountable incompetent shite-bags loyal only to their paymasters, then look at the paymasters. It’s shite-bags all the way down.

  44. 44.

    rikyrah

    About RonnieD

     

    I won’t relax until he drops out and slinks back home. But you love to see it!

     

    I understand, and we will have to wait longer than usual, because the MSM isn’t going to give up on their year+ fluffing and normalizing RonnieD.

    They’ve invested all this professional malpractice in him to crown him Dolt45’s successor. They won’t let go of that easily. That is why he will be allowed to hang on long past his shelf life.

  45. 45.

    Scout211

    Checking TIFG’s social just now, he (or likely an aide because it’s in lower case) posted a very confusing post that he thinks is basically, a game, set, match! Suckers! that he thinks proves he is not guilty of all those “fake charges.”

    Big News! Mike Pence said, “ I met with the Parliamentarian of the Senate, Elizabeth MacDonough, to discuss the procedures for the upcoming joint session on January 6. She told me that Congress always receives miscellaneous slates of electors every four years.” Greg Kelly, “That’s huge! A game changer in terms of information. It really turns upside down everything the Democrats said about January 6th, and this latest Federal Indictment.” DROP THE FAKE CASE!

    Does anyone know what he is talking about here? A “miscellaneous slate of electors every four years” sound to me like business as usual.

    Is there something I’m missing here or does “miscellaneous” not mean what he thinks it means.

  46. 46.

    Jeffro

    @bbleh: These are the Rep-leaning people who can be converted from voters to non-voters, at least in the presidential race if (when) Trump is the nominee.  And that can make a material difference.

    Exactly right.

    Let them leave that box unchecked, that oval unfilled.

    Or let them write Saint Ronnie in, I don’t care.

  48. 48.

    rikyrah

    @Jeffro:

    It’s nice that the media’s complicity here may actually have backfired on the GOP.  The party is rapidly running out of time to find a replacement for DeSantis as the trump alternative.

    GOOD

     

    And, because they won’t give up because of all THEY’VE invested in RonnieD…

     

    That window gets narrower and narrower.

    Let them fluff and support all the way to the Iowa Caucus.

  50. 50.

    Baud

    @zhena gogolia:

    Those people (the Kamala is a cop haters) probably aren’t Dems.
    They’re nowhere near 5%.
    Most likely, they’re white conservative people who vote Dem at the local level but hate the national party.

  52. 52.

    rikyrah

    @narya:

    I’m looking at the Mifepristone decision, and I think they’re still going after the administrative state. I’m hoping the Strict Scrutiny folks can tell me I’m wrong.

    I’m going to stick by this.

    They can’t cut away the baby from the bathwater in this one.

    It’s Mifepristone AND Big Pharma….they are joined at the hip.

    No way to carve out an exception.

    And, because they can’t…..Big Pharma will win, and thus, Mifepristone

  53. 53.

    Other MJS

    @japa21: @Frankensteinbeck: Valid points; also, I realize people like to be unhappy with whoever is currently in charge. It’s just galling that (possibly) more people currently think he should be prosecuted than defeated.

  55. 55.

    Jeffro

    @Scout211: nickel bet that he’s (purposefully) misinterpreting Pence’s comments, which are likely about the occasional “faithless elector”

    (from Wikipedia)

    History
    Over 58 elections, 165 electors have not cast their votes for president or vice president as prescribed by the legislature of the state they represented.[3] Of those:

    • 71 electors changed their votes because the candidate to whom they were pledged died before the electoral ballot (in 1872 and 1912).

    • 1 elector chose to abstain from voting for any candidate (in 2000).

    • 93 were changed typically by the elector’s personal preference, although there have been some instances where the change may have been caused by an honest mistake.

    Usually, faithless electors act alone, although on occasion a faithless elector has attempted to induce other electors to change their votes in concert, usually with little if any success.

     

    All of that, of course, has absolutely nothing to do with pressuring Pence to overturn a free and fair election, planning for whole slates of fake electors, trying to overturn GA’s election results, inciting an attack on the Capitol, etc.  But trump gotta trump.

  60. 60.

    rikyrah

    And, about RonnieD,

     

    The Florida economy is turning to shyt.

    That Disney lawsuit is going forth – they have to make an example out of him and the rest of those clowns so this doesn’t ever happen again.

  61. 61.

    rikyrah

    About the fake electors – which state’s fake electors were smart enough to cover their azzes?

    It was one state. They put one line in their documents that saved them from prosecution.

  62. 62.

    cain

    @rikyrah: Casey is very disappointed. She’s looking in her cookie jar to see if there is any money left for a private jet to an island retreat.

  64. 64.

    Roger Moore

    @bbleh: ​
     

    Been saying for a while that TFG is more of an asset for Dems than for Reps this time around.

    I’m not 100% sure of that. Yes, there are a lot of marginal Democratic voters who will turn out to defeat Trump, but there are also a lot of marginal Republican voters who will show up for him. I think it depends a lot on who (hypothetically) replaces him. If it’s a relatively sane establishment Republican, I think it will demoralize the MAGAs more than the marginal Democrats. If it’s someone more in the Trump mold but without the baggage with marginal Democrats, it will probably hurt us more than them.

  66. 66.

    hueyplong

    @Scout211: Each day his account will spew a new silver bullet that renders inoperable all criminal charges, everywhere. Trying to suss out the details of each is not an endeavor that should take time away from other things you find pleasurable.

  67. 67.

    bbleh

    @narya: @rikyrah: correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t this limited to the relatively narrow question of whether the FDA properly approved the dispensation of Mifepristone (1) by mail and (2) by prescription by other than an MD?  Ie it’s not about the approval of the drug itself, nor about whether it can, for example, be approved by a doc out of state.

    ETA: ah yes (1) correct but (2) prescription without an in-person visit.  So it would prohibit telemedicine (which seems like a stretch — yeah telemedicine is ok except for this one particular drug? and judges’ technical expertise outweighs the FDA’s?)

    That said, yes, I think they are counting on, eg, Thomas to uphold on general anti-regulation grounds.

  70. 70.

    rikyrah

    @bbleh:

    It’s not like this is the only drug sent through the mail or dispensed by someone other than an MD. Too much of Big Pharma is sent the same way. Everything about it is hooked in with Big Pharma. They are stuck together. and, I just believe that Big Pharma will win.

  71. 71.

    MattF

    @Roger Moore: I’ll allow that DeSantis is a uniquely and catastrophically bad candidate, but that doesn’t mean there really is a baggage-free Trump out there somewhere. Somehow, the various Trump substitutes that have been promoted to date just don’t have that special something.

  72. 72.

    wjca

    @bbleh:

    I think they are counting on, eg, Thomas to uphold on general anti-regulation grounds.

    Although, on the extremely dubious assumption that intellectual honesty might matter, “general anti-regulation grounds” would mean allowing the drug to be obtained by anyone, without any government interference.

  73. 73.

    Roger Moore

    @Alison Rose:

    I know someone who’s very Democratic but who thinks Trump should be given a gentle way to avoid prosecution.  She still thinks it would be possible to cut a deal where he agrees never to run for office again in exchange for not being prosecuted.

  74. 74.

    sdhays

    I feel like one of the things that has gotten more critical for understanding polls is having a good read on the portions of the electorate that identify as Democrat, Republican, and Independent. It doesn’t mean much if Republican support is 85% if a lot of people who used to identify as Republican no longer do (and vice versa).

    Is the base growing, holding steady, or shrinking?

  76. 76.

    wjca

    @MattF:

    DeSantis is a uniquely and catastrophically bad candidate, but that doesn’t mean there really is a baggage-free Trump out there somewhere. Somehow, the various Trump substitutes that have been promoted to date just don’t have that special something.

    But is it really possible to be an acceptable substitute for Trump without that special criminal something?

  77. 77.

    West of the Rockies

    @Jeffro:

    The list of GOP presidential candidates after Trump and DePinhead is extraordinarily thin:  has-beens, never-weres, and who?….

  78. 78.

    bbleh

    @wjca: or alternatively, making access subject entirely to the whims of state and federal legislators (whose expertise in evaluating the safety and efficacy of drugs might perhaps be somewhat less than the FDA’s) rather than the decisions of know-it-all “scientists” with their “facts” and “data.”

  79. 79.

    Jeffro

    @West of the Rockies: that’s why the only ones who worry me are Kemp and Youngkin.

    Everyone else is a has-been, never-was, is a former or current trump toady, or would be completely unacceptable to the MAGA base.

  82. 82.

    hueyplong

    @Jeffro: Pretty sure Trump’s base isn’t going to be all “bygones” with Kemp if he tries to go national.

    For that reason only I’d rate Youngkin a bigger threat.

  84. 84.

    smith

    @rikyrah: Everything about it is hooked in with Big Pharma. They are stuck together.

    Even more than Big Pharma, the primary allegiance of the Dirty Six is to the mobster-oligarchs who own them. They have already fulfilled their contractual obligation to kill Roe v Wade that got them appointed in the first place, but they are free agents available to the highest bidder going forward. In other words, they’ve had their one dance with the ones that brung them, now they can dance with the ones that sustain them.

  85. 85.

    rikyrah

    @MattF:

    but that doesn’t mean there really is a baggage-free Trump out there somewhere.

     

    There isn’t one. Any of them, we have them on camera, defending Dolt45

  87. 87.

    Roger Moore

    @rikyrah:

    About the fake electors – which state’s fake electors were smart enough to cover their azzes?

    I think it was Pennsylvania.  They added a clause stating they were only filing their alternative slate of electors in case the state election results were overturned.

  88. 88.

    schrodingers_cat

    Another plug for my Twitter friend Arvind Joshi’s documentary on Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra.

    Trailer here.

    Another mutual Maruti Naik wrote a book about his experiences of walking with Rahul Gandhi across India.

  90. 90.

    rikyrah

    @Jeffro:

    @West of the Rockies: that’s why the only ones who worry me are Kemp and Youngkin.

    Everyone else is a has-been, never-was, is a former or current trump toady, or would be completely unacceptable to the MAGA base.

     

    Of these two, Kemp is the one to worry about.

    Youngkin has governed as the MAGA he always was.

  91. 91.

    smith

    @hueyplong: Pretty sure Trump’s base isn’t going to be all “bygones”

    Pretty sure TFG won’t let them forget that Kemp is a traitor to the cause in any case. And with both Kemp and Youngkin, any fake moderation they’d try to project for the general election would probably cause the Goobers to stay home. It’s red meat or nothing.

  92. 92.

    Roger Moore

    @bbleh:

    correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t this limited to the relatively narrow question of whether the FDA properly approved the dispensation of Mifepristone (1) by mail and (2) by prescription by other than an MD?

    No.  The plaintiffs wanted to relitigate the original approval.  The 5th Circuit shut them down on that and on the issue of telemedicine, but supported them on some other stuff.

  93. 93.

    Baud

    @Roger Moore:

    That’s the nub of it for Trump in the two criminal cases.  He took actions after he lost all his court cases.  His defense is basically that he gets to ignore the decisions of the courts. Judges tend to frown on those sorts of arguments.

  94. 94.

    schrodingers_cat

    @Roger Moore: Why does she think he would honor that promise?

    Nope he needs to be prosecuted, he is not above the law.

    Modi should have been prosecuted for Godhra genocide. The top BJP leadership should have been prosecuted for the destruction of Babri and the deaths they unleashed in the 90s. RSS leaders should have been prosecuted for their role in the plot for Gandhi’s assassination.

    Not prosecuting these upper caste hate mongers is the one of the reasons why India is where it is today.

  95. 95.

    Montanareddog

    OT: interesting thread on Black US military in the UK during WWII. The lede:

    In WW2, the movement of millions of American troops to Britain, known as the “friendly invasion,” brought to light stark differences concerning racial segregation. Many Britons struggled to understand or accept the institutionalized discrimination that Black soldiers faced in White America, leading to tensions between the two allied nations on the matter of civil rights.

    And this is the Wikipedia page on The Battle of Bamber Bridge, mentioned in the linked thread and the subject of a forthcoming thread from the poster.

  96. 96.

    Jeffro

    @hueyplong: extremely good point

    I hope it doesn’t come down to it (I’d much rather see trump or DeSantis dragging the GOP down to a landslide defeat) but watching Youngkin hem and haw and trying to have it both ways on a national stage would be fun to watch

    *except unfortunately ‘hemming and hawing’ = ‘moderate Republican’ in the snooze media’s eyes, so forget I said anything

  97. 97.

    Scout211

    Ha ha ha ha ha!
    California authorities say Eastman disbarment trial should continue despite Georgia charges

    California bar authorities seeking professional sanctions against lawyer John Eastman — an architect of Trump’s bid to subvert the 2020 election — say his disbarment trial should continue next week even though he’s been criminally charged in Georgia.
     
    State bar attorney Duncan Carling, who is leading the effort to strip Eastman’s license to practice law in the state, said it’s too late for Eastman to postpone the trial, which began in June but has been delayed amid scheduling conflicts and is scheduled to resume Aug. 22. Eastman intermittently took the stand during those June proceedings, Carling noted, and voluntarily waived his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination.

    “Once the privilege is waived, that waiver cannot be revoked,” Carling wrote in a Tuesday filing.

  98. 98.

    smith

    @Roger Moore: I think they had a get-out-of-jail clause in NV as well.  There were 7 states with fake electors, 2 (PA and NV) in which they had an out, and 2 (GA and MI) in which at least some are facing consequences. That leaves WI, AZ and NM where they’re still waiting to FO.

  99. 99.

    Roger Moore

    @MattF:

    The alternative candidate in the Trump mold doesn’t have to be completely free of baggage; they just have to not have nearly as much baggage that would matter to a marginal Democratic voter.  The thing about Trump is that a lot of normies hated the Trump years basically because they don’t want the government to be a non-stop circus.  They have bad associations with Trump specifically and might not bother to vote if the Republican candidate is someone who doesn’t look like they’re going to be all over everything all the time.

  100. 100.

    Lapassionara

    I’m really sceptical of most polls these days. Who out there actually answers their phone if the caller is unknown? How are polling organizations finding the people who respond?

    I am apprehensive about the 2024 election because the Electoral College gives the R’s an advantage and because there is some possibility that the economy will start to suck because of the Fed’s rate hikes. Keeping my fingers crossed and giving money and doing what else I can to help.

  104. 104.

    kindness

    Too many faux moderate Republicans are advising Democrats to lighten up on Trump and not over-reach.  Seems to me this is the exact time to ring our bell.  Honestly Joe & Kamela have been doing a good job pushing our side.  The media covering it?  Meh….the MSM is always going to prefer Republicans.

  106. 106.

    JaySinWA

    @MattF: Sample data from the linked article.

    1,818 U.S. adults nationwide were surveyed from August 10th – 14th with a margin of error of +/- 2.3 percentage points.

    The survey included 1,632 self-identified registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey included 681 Republican and Republican leaning voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 666 Democratic and Democratic leaning voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

    If I read the data correctly the numbers Betty quoted were only from registered voters.

    1632 registered

    -682 R

    -666 D

    = 284 I

  109. 109.

    Roger Moore

    @CaseyL:

    Does she say why? Is she one of those “it would do too much damage to the country to see an ex-President in the dock” types?

    I think so, though I think there’s also some legitimate worry that Trump prosecution will be followed by the Republicans prosecuting Biden over nothing.  You’d think someone who lived through the Watergate hearings would be more foaming at the mouth to prosecute, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

  110. 110.

    zhena gogolia

    @Baud: inorite?

    It’s “x and I” if it’s the subject of a clause

    If it’s the object or indirect object, it’s “x and me.”

  116. 116.

    Roger Moore

    @smith:

    I think at least some of the Republicans on the Court really want to kill the administrative state.  They’d love a reason to overturn, or at least wildly scale back, Chevron, but they will probably not do it in this case.

  118. 118.

    Roger Moore

    @rikyrah:

    Of these two, Kemp is the one to worry about.

    Kemp is not going to challenge Trump directly, and he’d be squashed like a bug if he tried.  He’s too closely associated with the current Fulton County prosecution to escape the MAGAs’ wrath.

  119. 119.

    wjca

    @WaterGirl:

     It was drilled into us all through school that it was x and I.

    Interesting.  Here the lesson was: Write the sentence without the “x and” bit.  That will show you whether to use “I” or “me”.  Which works quite consistently.  Although admittedly challenging when speaking off the cuff.

  122. 122.

    Old Man Shadow

    The damage done to Florida will take many years to repair… assuming the voters of Florida even see it as damage and want to repair it.

    At this point, the majority of Floridian voters might just be willing to blow up the rest of the state to own the libs.

  123. 123.

    JPL

    @rikyrah: Kemp’s good ol boy status won’t help nationwide.   A friend who stays close to Fulton Cty repubs, thinks he is positioning himself for VP if trump blows up.

  126. 126.

    Miss Bianca

    @Roger Moore: your friend there is a Democrat who really thinks anyone can “cut a deal” with Trump in good faith?

    And *doesn’t* think that a political leader who engineers a coup – or coup attempt – should face justice? Huh. All I’ll say is “Unusual!”

  127. 127.

    misterpuff

    @Baud: Concur.

    I hear tell that some in the South still think of themselves as Democrats but vote for Repugs (and prostrate themselves at the feet of the Golden Calf, er I mean TFIG)

     

    Or they were ratf*cking the poll.

  128. 128.

    Tony Jay

    STAFFER – “Governor, I’m really not sure this is a good idea.”

    RoDS – “Campaign no need sure. Campaign need hold camera.”

    STAFFER – “Of course, Sir. I’ll do whatever you tell me, you’re the boss. It’s just, do you really think this is the best way to reach out to the Base?”

    RoDS – “Think-weak! Think-fail bring Bad Mouse Problem. Think-fail break Floridomain. No think. Action! Impulse! Gut-lead!”

    STAFFER – “Have you at least run this past Casey?”

    RoDS – “Broodmate Spawnhost visit sister on Maui. Phone signal broken.”

    STAFFER – “Isn’t Mrs De Santis an only chi… ahhh… okay, but before we commit, isn’t there anyone else you can maybe bounce this off? A friend? One of the Nazis..?”

    RoDS – “Mouth-zip! Sigh-noise. Smart-hear. MAGA want woman-hate. MAGA want old-familiar. MAGA want rule-break. MAGA want edge-cross. All files reviewed. Select act-role multi-hit all points. Bring Wow! Win eye-time! Flesh-warm below-feeling plus nudge-laugh. Meme-fire! Camera! Witness! Victory-bring!”

    STAFFER – “Yes, Sir. Ready when you are, Sir.”

    (Lights dim. Music starts. De Santis turns away from the camera, adjusting. Spins back, arms wide, naked except for a burgundy shawl, manhood tucked between pinched white thighs, gyrating awkwardly)

    RoDS – (growls) “Would you vote for me? I’d vote for me. I’d vote for me hard”

    STAFFER – (whispers) “Siri, show me flights to New Jersey.”

  131. 131.

    smith

    @Miss Bianca: And *doesn’t* think that a political leader who engineers a coup – or coup attempt – shouldn’t face justice?

    I suspect there are people who are reluctant to acknowledge it was a real coup attempt — it causes too much anxiety to take in that it really could happen in the US. Easier just to write it off as the usual Republican hijinks, of which there have been so many they’ve been normalized.

  133. 133.

    Roger Moore

    @Baud:

    That’s the nub of it for Trump in the two criminal cases. He took actions after he lost all his court cases. His defense is basically that he gets to ignore the decisions of the courts. Judges tend to frown on those sorts of arguments.

    I’m a bit surprised I haven’t heard this angle more.  I’ve heard a lot of people talking about him getting conflicting advice from his lawyers, but they weren’t the only people he had to listen to.  The courts, including judges Trump himself appointed, shot down all the theories about problems with the election.  It was objectively unreasonable to think the alternative slates of electors were in any way legitimate.

    People have made the analogy between Trump trying to steal the election and someone trying to rob a bank they believe has their money.  It’s actually worse for Trump.  What he did wasn’t the equivalent of demanding money he thought was his at gunpoint; it was the equivalent of demanding money he thought was his at gunpoint after losing several lawsuits about the issue.

  134. 134.

    Baud

    @smith:

    More generally, I think a lot of people continue to see Republicans as Big Daddy authority figures who should not be crossed.

  137. 137.

    misterpuff

     

    @Roger Moore:

    About the fake electors – which state’s fake electors were smart enough to cover their azzes?

    I think it was Pennsylvania.  They added a clause stating they were only filing their alternative slate of electors in case the state election results were overturned.

     

    But, but, but what about the slate of electors that Trump and the GOP had on the ballot?

    If, in fact, the state election returns were overturned, wouldn’t the original GOP Trump electors be the legal electors, not the alternate slate.

    So, even this alternate slate is just a ploy to stop up and bollix the process, and should be potentially illegal. But IANAL.

  138. 138.

    Dangerman

    @rikyrah: For some reason known only to psychics and shrinks, Trumpism only works for Trump. And I mean Daddy; not Ivanka, not Junior, not anyone else. Exhibit A: DeSantis.

    Trump is destined for either jail or The Great Beyond soon enough; the Republicans need to rebrand, top to bottom.  They will always win the backwater hellholes, but California showed the way. They will be more and more fucked unless they do something.

    Fuck if I know what that should be.

  139. 139.

    Baud

    @cain:

    Not sure if you’re kidding, but Chevron is a legal doctrine that gives regulatory agencies some deference in terms of how to implement a statute. It actually often benefits companies, but conservatives have decided that courts are now stacked in their favor and undermining effective regulation is more important.

  141. 141.

    Sure Lurkalot

    @MattF:

    Somehow, the various Trump substitutes that have been promoted to date just don’t have that special something.

    A billionaire who begs money off senior citizens? A Rocky Balboa who can’t walk more than the length of a driveway? A manly man who wears makeup, hairspray and heels? A potent tour de force who whines “not fair” more than a two-year old?

    Trump may have that “special something” but his supporters have a battle going on in their brains that they are sorely losing.

  143. 143.

    WaterGirl

    @Baud:

    “Baud and I are going to a movie.”

    “Would you like to go to the movie with Baud and I?”

    Anyone who said “Baud and me” in sentence 2 was considered ignorant.

    The nuns will not be questioned!  :-)

  147. 147.

    Baud

    @WaterGirl:

    Wow. Now I’m afraid to ask what they taught you in sex ed.

    ETA: if I weren’t in the picture, would it be “go to the movies with I”?

  149. 149.

    Tony Jay

    @Ken:

    I didn’t forget them. They’re the ones in the Pit with the lotion in scene two.

    Okay, I forgot them a little bit.

  151. 151.

    misterpuff

     

    @Roger Moore:

    @misterpuff:

    I think in PA they were able to get the exact set of electors who would have voted for Trump had the election gone the other way.

     

    Ah! OK that explains it, but I recall in some states, they couldn’t get the all the original electors to sign on, so they subbed in some replacements.

  152. 152.

    narya

    @rikyrah: I’m not gonna fight you on this one at all–Big Pharma surely has purchased at least one or two of them. It does seem that they’re restricting the use a bit, which potentially hurts pharma companies (who would have to re-do their labeling, I think?), and I saw something that suggested they’d limit the time period it could be used.

    They’re still going after Chevron, but I think you’re right that this case isn’t the one to really do it. If they can take a nick out of Chevron they will, or more likely, as with 303 Creative/Masterpiece Cake, they’ll draw a map about how to do it.

  155. 155.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Scout211: ​
     

    Christie leapfrogged DeSantis for second place in the Granite State, garnering 9 percent support. DeSantis’s support, on the other hand, fell to 8 percent from 17 percent in March. Christie’s 1-point lead over DeSantis falls within the poll’s plus-or-minus 3.4 percent margin of error.

    IOW, they can’t say who’s really in second place; their sample is way too small for that. Bugs the hell out of me when they report it as if they can.

  157. 157.

    Fair Economist

    @Roger Moore: There’s no legitimate worry that tbe Republicans will use Trump’s indictment as an excuse to attempt to prosecute Democrats. The *already* tried to prosecute Hillary. The grand jury, appropriately, told them to get lost.

    If a Republican President gets elected in 2024, he’s going to have the Justice department file charges against lots of Democrats, no matter what is done to Trump. They are already hopelessly corrupt.

  159. 159.

    Geminid

    @Jeffro: I think Sununu might be able to wrest the nomination from Trump. But Sununu- or Kemp or Youngkin- might wonder whether the nomination would be worth anything if hard core Trumpers stay home. Some definitely would, and Republicans basically need to maximise their base turnout to win purple states. So in Kemp’s case especially, staying clear of the train wreck and laying groundwork for a 2028 run is the safer play.

    Youngkin’s stock value is to some extent tied to the outcome of the Virginia legislative elections. If Republicans do poorly, his reputation as a purple state prodigy will take a hit. Youngkin’s trying to counter that possibility by raising a lot of money for the battleground races. Hopefully that will only boost the bottom lines for TV and radio stations. WRVA out of Richmond should do especially well. These races will attract a lot of money to both parties’ candidates.

  160. 160.

    Tony Jay

    @trollhattan:

    Casey is just her stage name. When they’re alone in the Governor’s mansion it’s “Broodmate” and “You pathetic fucking loser”.

  161. 161.

    RSA

    Americans 54 – 42 percent think Trump should be prosecuted on criminal charges

    This is great.  I’ll sometimes read a conservative columnist trying (and failing) to preserve his intellectual bona fides by saying that, for example, election fraud should be investigated because millions of Americans believe that it happened. We need to do it to restore people’s confidence in democracy.  By the same token, most Americans want to see Trump put on trial.  We need to do it to restore people’s confidence in democracy.  (Schadenfreude is a side benefit for some.)

  164. 164.

    RaflW

    When I see Bushies like Alberto Gonzalez (ptuh, ptuh, feh) come out and at least try to draw a little Trump blood with their elite picador flashes, I get just a glimmer of hope that the old guard GOP recognizes what an absolute anchor chain Donnie is for the whole ticket.

    Polls like this add to that sense. And (pardon the ugly analogy to the cruel and inhumane bullfight) it is very much up to Democrats to place the banderillas as Trump spins and fumes and fascinates the also-horrified crowd.

  165. 165.

    Geminid

    @Baud: I don’t know what Sununu’s position on abortion is. There are certainly Republican base voters who will object to any but the most strict limitations on abortion rights, but I don’t think they are the most numerous of base voters, just the most vehement.

    This speaks to a more general Republican problem: how can anyone including Trump unify that party next year? I’m not sure it can be done.

  166. 166.

    RaflW

    @RSA: When conservatives say election fraud should be investigated because millions of Americans believe that it happened, I get very grumpy.

    It has been investigated. Many times! Across multiple elections. I was an occasional volunter observer of the Franken-Coleman recount in MN. One of the most meticulously poured-over elections for high federal office. I believe three (3!) votes were cast that could, in some fashion, be called fraudulent. Out of 2.9M votes. And if memory serves, at least two of them were for Norm.

    Voter fraud Is. Not. A. Thing.

  168. 168.

    Roger Moore

    @Geminid:

    This speaks to a more general Republican problem: how can anyone including Trump unify that party next year?

    By winning the nomination.  The Republicans may act crazy, but they understand that voting for their candidate is the best way of getting the policies they want.  They may hold their noses when they do it, but the Republican faithful will pull the lever next to (R) and figure out the details later.

  169. 169.

    Central Planning

    So I’m out of town for work about to play trivia at a local pub. Balloon Juice is my team name. I hope I can represent!

  173. 173.

    wjca

    @Geminid:

    This speaks to a more general Republican problem: how can anyone including Trump unify that party next year? I’m not sure it can be done.

    At this point, too many of them have embraced the mindset that anything short of 100% fealty to their views, on every one of numerous issues, is intolerable heresy.  And their views, where they overlap, often conflict.  Somehow Trump, consummate conman that he is, manages to square that circle.  But none of the others have his skill at conning the rubes.

  174. 174.

    smith

    @wjca: too many of them have embraced the mindset that anything short of 100% fealty to their views, on every one of numerous issues, is intolerable heresy.

    Isn’t this how many cults spiral in on themselves, repeatedly casting out heretics with ever-more stringent litmus tests, until all that’s left are a few bitter dead-enders, who then all take strychnine?

  176. 176.

    Geminid

    @Roger Moore: That has been the case historically, and it may hold true next year. But it might not; the party has a lot more internal stress than I’m used to seeing.

    If they can unite, it will have to be around a very right wing program. That will hurt them with Independents and energize qDemocrats as well. I think their only hope is for a serious recession, which is starting to look like an unlikely prospect. That’s another reason for politicians like Kemp to steer clear of this race.

  177. 177.

    cmorenc

    A wild card in the 2024 election is that the FED still seems sorely tempted to keep inching interest rates up enough to induce a mild recession and higher unemployment, in order to bring inflation down below 2%.

     

  179. 179.

    Jeffro

    @Geminid: Sununu- or Kemp or Youngkin- might wonder whether the nomination would be worth anything if hard core Trumpers stay home…staying clear of the train wreck and laying groundwork for a 2028 run is the safer play.

    This is a good point, and they all seem like they are relatively sensible in this regard.  Maybe they’re also getting similar (and good) advice, either from their own people or the big-donor networks.

    Youngkin’s stock value is to some extent tied to the outcome of the Virginia legislative elections. If Republicans do poorly, his reputation as a purple state prodigy will take a hit. Youngkin’s trying to counter that possibility by raising a lot of money for the battleground races.

    Yup.  AND by scrambling to do a bit of token governing while also coming up with the odd bits of red meat for the base here and there.  He recently screwed over higher ed with his various board appointments but his minions also found some smaller ways to tweak higher ed funding, grants, etc.  Just because.

  182. 182.

    Jeffro

    @Roger Moore: usually this is 100% true.

    I would be surprised if it holds for this cycle, though, and for that it’s helpful to think about what would happen if/when various other GOP candidates might win the nomination:

    • Tim Scott: guess which part of the GOP stays home?
    • Mike Pence: puh-leaze.
    • Christie: MAGA would never

    and so on.

    There’s a sizable contingent of GOP voters that trump brought in (or converted?) who will now vote for him and only him.  If he’s not the nominee, they’re out.  The alternatives are either flat-out enemies of the cult or extremely uninspiring or have the wrong skin color or are just too weird for even them to consider.

  185. 185.

    Jeffro

    Speaking of polling, most GOP voters are against prosecuting trump but only 16% say he’s “blameless”

    They are so, so tired of defending his insanity.  Well, some of them are, anyway

    Increasingly, few Americans actually believe Trump did “nothing” wrong, according to new polling. And while Republicans overwhelmingly say they don’t think Trump broke the law, most — even a very strong majority — fault him in some measure.

    In an Associated Press-NORC poll, 1 in 5 or fewer Americans said they believed Trump did “nothing wrong” in each of his four legal cases. Of his role in the Jan. 6 insurrection, 21 percent said he did “nothing wrong.” In both the classified documents case and the Georgia case (the poll was conducted before this week’s indictment there), it was 15 percent. And just 14 percent said Trump did “nothing wrong” in the Manhattan case involving an alleged coverup of hush money payments.

    They know he’s corrupt.  They just don’t want to own it, or to have to defend him, or to take another big election loss.  OH WELL.

  186. 186.

    Jeffro

    @Jeffro: While majorities of the GOP opted for the “nothing wrong” option for most of Trump’s presidency — 68 percent even said so after the Mar-a-Lago classified documents search a year ago — that number has dropped below a majority in virtually every recent poll.

  187. 187.

    Jeffro

    It’s difficult to see this tipping the scales against Trump for a large number of them. But it doesn’t need to to have significant impact on the 2024 general election. Even dissuading a few percentage points’ worth of voters who would otherwise back the GOP nominee could swing a race in our increasingly tight American elections.

    And some of those voters do appear to be dissuadable. The AP-NORC poll also shows 63 percent of Americans said they would definitely not or probably not vote for Trump, compared to 54 percent for President Biden. (In each case, 11 percent said they would “probably” not vote for the candidate — the rest were “definitely” not.)

    The tight 2024 polls suggest that many of the 11 percent who said they “probably” wouldn’t vote for Trump nonetheless opt for him in a head-to-head matchup with Biden.

    But those voters are going to get a heavy dose of something (or -things) they might not like about Trump in the months ahead. And their reaction to it could go a long way in determining who has the role of commander in chief come January 2025.

  189. 189.

    Geminid

    @Roger Moore: That is certainly the historic pattern, and it might hold true next year. But it might not, I think; lately Republicans have had a lot more internal stresses and animosities than I am used to seeing.

    And their margins in purple states are too tight for them to afford many defections. I think we saw this in the Georgia Senate runoffs Jan. 5, 2021.

  190. 190.

    Roger Moore

    @Jeffro:

    There’s a sizable contingent of GOP voters that trump brought in (or converted?) who will now vote for him and only him. If he’s not the nominee, they’re out.

    I guess I’m just not convinced of this.  I think many of those voters who say they’re Trump only are really saying that in a scenario where Trump loses the nomination through some kind of shenanigan by the traditional Republicans.  If he died of a heart attack, fled into exile, or lost the nomination to another candidate who legitimately beat him head-to-head, I think a lot of them would change their minds.  That’s naturally most true in the last case, since it would probably involve that alternative candidate winning over a lot of Trumpers.

  191. 191.

    wjca

    @Roger Moore:

    If he died of a heart attack, fled into exile, or lost the nomination to another candidate who legitimately beat him head-to-head, I think a lot of them would change their minds.

    If he died of a heart attack? Sure, they’d support whoever the nominee is.   At least if he (loudly) vowed to carry on the “legacy”.  A little drop off, but not a vast amount.

    If he fled into exile?  Maybe, if the candidate convinced them that he would bring their messiah home.

    But.  If he “legitimately” lost the nomination?  No way.  Because, in their minds, he could not lose, only be cheated.  The only question they would wrestle with is whether to sit home and sulk, or go out and vote for Biden (however much they dislike him and all he stands for), just to punish the scum who robbed them of victory.

    And yes, I can see them being that vindictive.  Partly because I can easily see TIFG calling on them to do exactly that.  He is big on vengence, after all, and utterly indifferent to the party or the issues.

  194. 194.

    Ken

    @wjca: I think a third-party Trump run would be more likely if he didn’t get the nomination. I have no idea if he would have time to get on the ballot in any states, but he could run as a write-in.

  195. 195.

    Geminid

    @Ken: Trump could torpedo another Republican without even running 3rd Party or write in, I think. If he caused only five percent of Republican voters to stay home, the Republican nominee would be in trouble. Ten percent would be fatal

  196. 196.

    Origuy

    There is one exception to the I vs me rule, and it is not always followed. If the sentence uses a form of “to be” and both the subject pronoun and the object pronoun refer to the same thing, it is acceptable to say “It is I”. This is called the predicate nominative. It sounds a little stilted and old-fashioned today, but is still acceptable. For example, “It was I who ate the last of the cake.” If I had help, I would say, “It was Tim and I who ate the last of the cake.”

  197. 197.

    Chris

    @Roger Moore:

    I guess I’m just not convinced of this.  I think many of those voters who say they’re Trump only are really saying that in a scenario where Trump loses the nomination through some kind of shenanigan by the traditional Republicans.  If he died of a heart attack, fled into exile, or lost the nomination to another candidate who legitimately beat him head-to-head, I think a lot of them would change their minds.  That’s naturally most true in the last case, since it would probably involve that alternative candidate winning over a lot of Trumpers.

    I’m so old, I remember when they adored George W. Bush.

    And one of my pet theories is that if Dubya had been eligible to run for President in 2008, his approval rating would never have dropped all the way into the twenties.  It didn’t cost them much to throw him under the bus and adopt their “oh well, Bush was a RINO liberal and I never trusted him anyway” bullshit story when he was a lame duck a few months from going away forever.

    But if he’d been running again, and Republican voters were presented with the choice of “admit you made a mistake and hold your nose and vote for the black Muslim Kenyan socialist who’s coming for your guns,” and “double down on your support for him because you’re a conservative and conservatives don’t make mistakes,” the vast majority would have picked Door Number Two.

    Which is the situation they’re in with Trump now.

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