Just a quick hurricane open thread. They’re now forecasting that Idalia to intensify to category 4 and make landfall at that strength. The track has not changed. It is going to come in just north of Cedar Key on the southeastern side closer to the apex of Florida’s Big Bend. Storm surge for that area is predicted to be 12 to 15 feet above ground level (AGL) maximum.
Where I’m at things are still fairly calm. It finally started to rain about two hours ago. The predicted maximum storm surge for Tampa Bay been reduced to 3 to 6 feet from 4 to 7 feet AGL. However, if you actually go and check the storm surge inundation/flooding map at the National Hurricane Center, the potential predicted flooding is only 1 foot AGL. This is all because the storm has stayed 100 miles off shore of the west coast as it heads north. This means my area is unlikely to even see tropical storm force winds except in the occasional gust. So while they’re still somewhat concerned about storm surge during the king tides this coming morning and then midday tomorrow for Tampa Bay, the forecasts are all now focusing on the Cedar Key area and the Big Bend because that’s where Idalia is going to make landfall. They’re also worried about some of the rivers that empty into the gulf north of the Tampa Bay area, but south of where Idalia should make landfall.
For those interested, here is one of the sites I’ve been checking over the past couple of days. This link is to the forecast model animation.
Open thread!
Villago Delenda Est
Hunker down or get the heck out of Dodge if you still can if you’re in the storm surge path!
Adam L Silverman
@Villago Delenda Est: The go/no go decision point for almost everyone was several hours ago. Unless you have a place to go and no you can get there in short order, most have nowhere to go at this point.
HumboldtBlue
Fucking king tides, they always, I mean always, show up at the wrong fucking time.
Here’s hoping you get through with minimal fuss.
Villago Delenda Est
@Adam L Silverman: Full hunker down if you’re in place, then. You personally are just going to get wet and have some high winds. Others, like around the Big Bend, not so lucky.
twbrandt
The winters here in Michigan suck, but I’ve never had to evacuate, or board up the windows, etc, etc, etc.
Jackie
Thanks for the thread, Adam.
Jackals in FL check in when you can! Hoping for the best for all in Idalia’s path!
Adam L Silverman
@Villago Delenda Est: We’re not even going to get high winds. We’re barely getting the outermost bands because it has stayed so far offshore.
And yes, at this point the most one can do is hunker down and wait.
Adam L Silverman
@HumboldtBlue: I’m not expecting too much difficulty where I’m at. Once they decided not to expand the evacuation orders beyond Zone A and mobile homes it made the decision to stay put easier.
Adam L Silverman
I’m going to go take care of a few things and get ready to rack out. If I don’t check back in any time soon do not panic. It just means I’ve nodded off.
Alison Rose
Glad to hear from you. Hope other Florida jackals can check in if they’re able.
J. Arthur Crank (fka Jerzy Russian)
I have never heard the term “king tide”. I have heard of “spring” tide, and “neap” tide, which refer to particular situations involving the alignment of the Earth, Sun, and Moon. I am I correct in assuming “king” as used here is a (poor) substitute for “big fucking”?
HumboldtBlue
@J. Arthur Crank (fka Jerzy Russian):
Yes.
Sister Golden Bear
HumboldtBlue beat me to it.
Glad to hear you’ll likely only see minimal effects, Adam.
Jackie
@J. Arthur Crank (fka Jerzy Russian): High tide caused by a full moon.
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/kingtide.html
BeautifulPlumage
Stay safe everyone in FL (and anyone else in the path)
J. Arthur Crank (fka Jerzy Russian)
@Jackie: A high tide during a full Moon should properly be called a “spring” tide.
Somewhat relatedly, there is a Blue Moon tomorrow (second full Moon in August). What’s more, the Moon will be at (roughly) its closest approach to Earth. As a result, the Moon will look slightly larger in the sky. These types of full moon events are given all sorts of names that I can’t keep track of (solar system astronomy is not my thing).
BruceFromOhio
Glad you are safe. Thanks for the link to the model. May Gaia show mercy on Florida and her citizens. Except the governor, he can go fuck himself.
RaflW
My only experience with a hurricane was in the 80s in Houston, 65 miles or more inland. Even there, the pine trees bent so far over I was shocked they didn’t snap. It was quite intense, and pretty lengthy. We didn’t have any tornadoes near us, but that’s the other inland risk.
The worst for us was being without electricity for I think 4 days. I left Houston in ’89 and Texas in ’95. My brother and his wife are 3 houses from a bayou near downtown Houston, but sitting on the high side (The Heights neighborhood, aptly named). They got through Harvey OK, water came to the foot of the front stoop. But I think they had no electricity for over a week, and my brother manages an office of 200 people, several of whom suffered major flooding.
Hang in there, BJ peeps.
J. Arthur Crank (fka Jerzy Russian)
While we are at it, more useless trivia related to the Moon.
stars.
eclare
@Jackie:
Seconded! Stay safe FL jackals. Or in Betty C’s case, Gators.
Steeplejack
@J. Arthur Crank (fka Jerzy Russian):
Wikipedia:
Joy in FL
I’m seeing about the same weather as Adam is. I’m about 30 miles NW of Tampa.
I think my place will be ok, but I will be glad to see sunset on Wednesday, as this storm will be gone.
I had new, hurricane-safe windows installed in July. It was expensive and so worth it. The new windows replaced the original 1973 windows.
I feel for those in the Big Bend area. It looks like that will be the area that gets the most damage.
eclare
@J. Arthur Crank (fka Jerzy Russian):
Anecdata: my ex is a paramedic, and he said they all dreaded nights with a full moon. He said it brought out the extra crazy.
Westyny
Glad to hear you’re to the south of yhe storm. Hope everyone comes out ok.
eclare
@Joy in FL:
Good decision on the new windows!
kalakal
Same weather as Adam & Joy. About 20 miles to the west of Tampa across Tampa Bay.
Steeplejack
Cedar Key, the expected landfall, is in Levy County, just north of Betty Cracker’s Citrus County. The Withlacoochee River forms the boundary between the two counties. The Cracker compound is on the Withlacoochee but is thought to be well inland (20-30 miles?). Here’s hoping they and all in the path of the storm stay safe.
Kent
I’m from the opposite corner of the country so I don’t know Florida.
But why is that long section of the Florida coast so uninhabited? It looks like there is virtually nothing around Cedar Key for many many miles and what towns exist are well inland
Looking at Google maps, there is basically just nothing there. There must be some logical explanation. I get that it is marshy, but so was Miami at one time and that didn’t stop development and engineering artificial landscapes through drainage and fill.
Joy in FL
@eclare: Yes. They keep out a lot of heat and noise. But the reduced stress I feel right now is the best. I’ve worried about them every hurricane season for about 10 years. Finally could get new ones this year.
Adam L Silverman
@Steeplejack: Actually they have it coming in northwest of Perry, which is closer to the center point of the Big Bend.
eclare
@Steeplejack:
Yeah. I wish she’d check in but totally understand making last minute prep/saving battery charges.
J. Arthur Crank (fka Jerzy Russian)
@eclare: Well, the full Moon is visible all night, and hence a casual observer is more likely to see it at some time when it is dark. I am not sure if rigorous studies have linked the full Moon with ER visits, etc., and I am not that bored at the momemt.
kalakal
So far the power outages don’t look too drastic. Duke are only reporting about 5,000 people without power for the whole state and 3,000 of those seem to be in Safety Harbour ( just across the Bay to the west of Tampa)
Steeplejack
@Kent:
Very few sand beaches. Murky rivers and salt marshes. Plus I-75 is 50-60 miles inland.
eclare
@J. Arthur Crank (fka Jerzy Russian):
He and his coworkers kept up with the moon schedule.
Betsy
@Kent: More than marshy, it doesn’t have sand beaches. Just mud and lots of organic matter, brought to the Gulf there by the Suwannee, Withlacoochee and other swampy rivers.
Also, the soils in that area have “severe engineering constraints.”
rikyrah
🙏🏽🙏🏽🙏🏽 for anyone in the hurricane’s path.😢
SectionH
@J. Arthur Crank (fka Jerzy Russian): We were heading home from the Fishing Pier (yeah, San Diegans) when I saw the moon tonight. Wow. Spectacular barely begins to describe it.
Our son’s first actual word was “Moon.” It was big and beautiful that night too, many years ago.
eclare
@SectionH:
That is adorable.
BeautifulPlumage
Found this Cedar Key live cam located where the weather guy in a previous post was reporting from (I think it’s the same building).
ETA corrected
SectionH
@eclare: Well, he was. ;-> But I’m his Mom, so yeah.
eclare
Holy shit, someone on the pier at Cedar Key.
Video on The Weather Channel.
kalakal
Now a Cat 3, 120 mph winds moving north at 15mph. Predicted to cat 4 at landfall and possibly still a hurricane after its crossed Georgia and reaches the Atlantic. I do hope people all along the route are taking precautions, the radar images are terrifying
bjacques
@RaflW: Hurricane Alicia hit Houston mid-August in 1983. I lived in hamlet called Nassau Bay, across the road from NASA. My dad who worked at Exxon in Baytown had passed along to me 10 pounds of venison—steaks, sausages, and burgers. Alicia came up I-45. Not much flooding but the power went out midway through David Letterman and stayed out 80-1/2 hours. I had some ice and managed to barbecue and eat about 7 pounds of the venison before it went bad and I had to toss the rest. Put me off it for a few years.
David Bowie had played Houston two nights previous (Serious Moonlight tour) and mentioned it between songs when he came through again in ‘87 on his Glass Spider tour.
Tehanu
Stay safe, Adam.
eclare
@kalakal:
I was in ATL when Opal came through in 1995. It caused a lot of damage.
kalakal
@eclare: Glad you made it through ok. Unless you’ve seen it yourself you can’t believe the damage a major storm does. The weirdest part is how random it can seem. We seem to have dodged a bullet once again here in the Tampa Bay area, haven’t even lost power ( so far)
BeautifulPlumage
@BeautifulPlumage: oops, just checked & it’s not the same spot as the weather channel video in the earlier thread.
eclare
@kalakal:
Good news!
SectionH
And just about the Hurricane coming in now: all my best to everybody. I wouldn’t be here if the Live Oak that landed on the little cabin my mom & dad had in Biloxi before they named hurriacanes. They had a rental cabin across US 90 from the water. My dad was at Keesler then .
cckids
@eclare:
Those of us who work nights in grocery stores can definitely confirm this. Sheesh.
kalakal
@eclare: I can add confirmation by anecdata that this applies to public libraries 😄
HumboldtBlue
@SectionH:
Stephen King just entered the chat.
SectionH
@HumboldtBlue: Sorry not getting that. My son was one of the first survivors of Hylanine Membrane. Because the University of Kentucky medical school was cutting edge about that then -and it’s still fine -a really good medical teaching university.*
My son was one of the first survivors of Hylanine Membrane premie babies.. Because the University of Kentucky was cutting edge about that then -and it’s still a really good teaching university.
*All the money and power in the world (the little baby that the Kennedys lost ) couldn’t save that baby. 10 years later, it was still terrifying. He was a month old before they let me go to the hospital and hold him.
Srsly, GFY
HumboldtBlue
@SectionH:
No offense intended, I was reminded of a character from The Stand.
Noskilz
Stay safe and good luck!
Gretchen
Im thankful it’s already passed Naples with little damage. My son was hanging on last fall waiting for business to pick up when tourist season would pick up in October, when a hurricane wiped out the restaurant he was working at. It didn’t reopen until January. He spent the weekend getting it ready for the storm. I’m relieved it’s ok.
Odie Hugh Manatee
I hope for the best for all decent people and the critters in the path of this storm.
I wanted to go OT and say that the one thing I really like about the indictments in Georgia and the 19 having to turn themselves in to be charged and booked is that some Republicans were finally made to comply with the law.
lol
Chris T.
For whatever it’s worth, I never heard the term “king tide” when I lived on the east coast of the US but it seems common here on the west coast. Marin County has a US-101 / California 1 intersection down near Richardson Bay with a Park-and-Ride lot (see map). The Manzanita Park-and-Ride lot is often flooded if it’s raining during a “king tide” event. 101 is elevated here so it doesn’t flood, but 1 going underneath sometimes does.
They use the same term up here around Bellingham Bay…
SectionH
@HumboldtBlue: OK fine. Sorry, I’m a bit reactive right now.
opiejeanne
@Chris T.: Balboa Island in California has had the streets flood when a king tide was active. We saw about 6 inches of water on the roads when we went there one Saturday, but the water was a bit deeper the day before.
HumboldtBlue
@SectionH:
I am sorry for any angst I caused, wholly unintentional.
sab
@SectionH: It is amazing how much we have improved on infant survival in my lifetime.
I had a cousin, a blue baby, who died a year before I was born. Five years later he could have been treated.
A few years ago I heard an interview on NPR with a pediatric oncologist. The interviewer asked the doc how do you keep doing this when 15% of your patients don’t survive? He said that when he started, 95% didn’t survive.
ETA I know that isn’t much comfort to the 15% parents.
SectionH
@HumboldtBlue: Jackal friends, ok?
Frankensteinbeck
@J. Arthur Crank (fka Jerzy Russian):
5. No one knows why the moon looks bigger near the horizon. It’s a thing scientists argue about.
@eclare:
I worked in a doctor’s clinic, but not at night. I heard that from my hospital employed friends. I have had night-working medical family, and they also said it. People are crazier on full moons, and people save up getting medical treatment until after holidays.
Betty Cracker
Good morning, weather watchers! It looks like the storm will come ashore this morning on the section of coast where it’s least likely to affect human life and property; the area of shoreline in the path now isn’t heavily populated.
I do worry about the folks further inland, including my aunts and uncles who live on the Suwannee. But they are tough, well-prepared folks, and I’m confident they’ll be fine.
bjacques
And the lights just went out on that house on the Cedar Key pier:
https://www.weathercameras.live/?fbclid=IwAR1ITDD-Qvw7sfRk4MKwuPdVYWixipTvgtXmfT50qobhGEhiaTKBDLCGbH
And best to your peeps, BC!
eclare
@Betty Cracker:
Good to hear from you!
Do you expect any flooding from your swamp?
SectionH
@sab: So true.But it still makes me happy for the 85%. And yet the Republicans would rather have live babies die rather than take care of them after they’re born.
Betty Cracker
@eclare: The river has been super low all summer due to a drought, so we’re not worried about flooding. Looks like we lucked out — not even a power outage!
eclare
@Betty Cracker:
Great news!
SectionH
@Betty Cracker: Best best best to you and yours.
bjacques
Aaannnddd that webcam’s off the air. The house was still standing at least.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
Glad to hear it.
eclare
Of course Jim Cantore from The Weather Channel is in Cedar Key.
Brachiator
@Betty Cracker:
Good to hear that you will likely be okay.
Hope friends and family in the area come through everything without any problems.
satby
@Betty Cracker: Glad you checked in! All the digits crossed for your relatives and their neighbors to come through ok.
Barbara
@J. Arthur Crank (fka Jerzy Russian): I flew out of Anchorage at sunset two days ago and could see the moon at first, huge and low in the sky.
It sounds like Tampa will skirt disaster for the second time in four years. Other places are not so lucky.
Betty Cracker
Comments from Trump’s pollster in Axios:
Hahaha! BTW, wasn’t Fabrizio the turncoat bodyguard in The Godfather who tried to kill Michael but accidentally blew up poor Apollonia instead?
Brachiator
@eclare:
This claim doesn’t stand up when tested. It may be that people are looking for odd behavior during full moons and pay more attention when they observe it.
ETA. Was watching storm coverage on CNN. I do not understand why assignment editors insist on having reporters deliver their stories while standing out in miserable weather. Even if they are getting tossed around, one reporter noted that she is not out where the strongest winds will be blowing. Meanwhile the camera person is showing a house that possibly might maybe who knows could be damaged later on if the storm continues in its current path.
And after getting filmed while soaking wet, the reporter interviews a local official who is snug and warm in his office miles away, and who is providing detail on flood preparation.
Betty Cracker
Watching the radar loop, and it looks like the eye of Idalia is jogging a bit west. Bad news for Steinhatchee and my Suwannee olds.
@Brachiator: Gotta have some drama to fill up the airtime, I guess.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
DeSantis’s flailing is one bright spot in the GOP primary season.
Brachiator
@Betty Cracker:
The 538 podcast most recent episode was actually fitfully informative.
TLDR. The people being polled may be outliers because the average citizen, even zealous MAGA types, are not really paying attention to any politics so early in the race.
Also, pollsters get varied results if the interviewer doesn’t pronounce Vivek Ramaswamy’s name correctly, or if they accidentally prompt the interview subject by mentioning the guy’s name with a kind of “is this who you mean?” verification.
Despite noting the uncertainty of various poll results, the panel then wasted time doing empty punditry, treating various poll results as being more definitive than they really are.
ETA. One poll included Taylor Swift and Michelle Obama in a list of choices to measure popularity and preference. This is doubly and triply dumb when you note that apart from everything else, Taylor Swift is too young to even be a constitutionally acceptable candidate for president.
ETA 2. Fabrizio is a rare loose end in the Godfather saga. Coppola later filmed scenes indicating that the guy came to America and lived a quiet life until Michael located him. I think the scenes appear in one of the special edition versions that combine parts one, two and three.
Gvg
@Kent: soft ground and no real economic engine. Miami had hard lime rock. It may have had swamps too, but the area is known for being hard to dig. Gardeners need pick axes in places. That is also why they can build tall buildings. They also have beautiful beaches, once the mangroves were stripped away, which was an early ignorant mistake that made that area more storm vulnerable. It’s not permitted anymore but does look better to humans.
The big bend has a lot of peat moss and mush. It also has not so good beaches as the water action brings in more mud. Good for oysters and scallops and other shellfish, but it’s not the pretty part and it really is not even that buildable. Roads are a pain. They have to dig out the peat and bring in tons of lime rock and compact it to have a foundation for asphalt. I once got lucky and got a bunch of free peat moss for my garden by good timing getting a road crews throw away. When I have had to drive that stretch, even AM radio stations are rare at night. I think there is some logging and some cattle. A lot of poverty.
kalakal
Some heavier gusts, up to about 60mph over the last hour or so here in the Tampa Bay area. but nothing terribly bad. No power outage which is nice.
Gvg
@Betty Cracker: to me it looks like it’s bending towards Tallahassee and DeSantis. There are lots of nice ordinary people in Tallahassee but I wouldn’t mind if DeSantis was shown to be an obvious incompetent along with all his possible successors in the aftermath. I want lots of tarnish on the republican reputation in this state.
I think he is done nationally. He can’t run again for Governor. I want democrats to win control of this state. Not just a few offices, control.
kalakal
Access to the barrier islands in Pinellas closed about an hour ago. Lot of flooding apparently. We are getting a lot of rain. Surprised they weren’t closed before
kalakal
Watching Bay News 9. Now that it’s getting light can see a lot of flooding in St. Pete.
There’s a lot of flooding on the bridges/causeways across the bay, amazingly they’re not fully closed, you’d have to an idiot to be driving across the Courtney Campbell or Howard Franklin in this, there are waves all across the south side lanes but the north sides are still open
Adam L Silverman
@Gvg: A reporter challenged him during the afternoon press conference on why he and his pet legislature have still not addressed the home owners insurance crisis. He managed to deflect it with out sounding to petulant, but if anything is going to make a political difference for him and his pet GOP legislature, it’ll be this. Especially if the storm makes it into the Atlantic, reforms, turns south and then west as currently modeled, and hits the east coast of Florida and barrels right back across the state from east to west. We’ve only got two companies left that will sell home owners insurance policies. After this hurricane season, perhaps this storm, we may be down to one or none unless the state does something legislatively. He’s spent the past three years fighting his war on Fauci and woke. Prior to that he just drifted way to the extreme right from his behavior and statements in his first three months in office. There has been really no public policy work done, legislatively or regulatory, in five years. Just paying off and back his financial backers and pursuing his grievances to set up a presidential run that’s DOA. But it is Florida. It has been gerrymandered within an inch of its life and DeStupid also controls the courts as he’s appointed the majority of the state supreme and appeals court judges over the last five plus years. The state is a managed white Christian herrenvolk illiberal democracy run on behalf of DeStupid’s ambitions and the oligarchs that fund them.
Adam L Silverman
@kalakal: My guess is same reason they only ordered Zone A evacuated. Someone screwed up.
Adam L Silverman
@kalakal: They only close the bridges if the wind is sustained above 60 MPH. At least that’s the rule for the Skyway. I’m not even sure if there is a rule for the bridges over the bay.
kalakal
@Adam L Silverman: I don’t think there is a rule on the Bay bridges. I’m amazed they took so long to close off the barrier islands. At Clearwater Beach water level is 7 ft above normal and it’s low tide atm.
They really did screw up just leaving it at A. The other dumb thing was not opening up sandbag centers over the weekend but waiting till monday
Adam L Silverman
@kalakal: The causeway is now closed and they’ve just closed the southbound on the Howard Franklin, which is really westbound across to Pinellas.
As to the orders, my guess is the inundation forecast of one foot or so that I referenced in the post up top is what drove that. But if that forecast is wrong and people in Zone B who were not told to evacuate wind up dealing with significant storm surge innovation there is going to be huge problems.
J. Arthur Crank (fka Jerzy Russian)
@Adam L Silverman: Has there been a storm in recent memory that did a clockwise loop like that possible forecasted path? If nothing else that sounds like a metric fuckton of rain overall.
Adam L Silverman
@J. Arthur Crank (fka Jerzy Russian): I don’t know.
kalakal
@J. Arthur Crank (fka Jerzy Russian):
Gordon did it in 1994, hit Florida twice
Don did a full loop earlier this year but that was way out in the Atlantic
Taken4Granite
@J. Arthur Crank (fka Jerzy Russian): Yes. Hurricane Ivan did that in 2004, although IIRC it was extratropical after entering the Atlantic and then crossing the peninsula.
way2blue
King tides too! Great. Of course… Glad you’re away from the brunt. The initial videos of unrelenting angry waves are sobering.