Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Even though I know this is a bad idea, I’m off to do it anyway!

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

I like you, you’re my kind of trouble.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

No one could have predicted…

“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.”

The current Supreme Court is a rogue court. Very dangerous.

American History and Black History can not be separated.

Donald Jessica Trump found guilty as fuck – May 30, 2024!

Republicans do not pay their debts.

The words do not have to be perfect.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

Let me file that under fuck it.

“When somebody takes the time to draw up a playbook, they’re gonna use it.”

The jury literally has a bell they can ring to force Trump to show up on command. Greatest thing ever!

“Jesus paying for the sins of everyone is an insult to those who paid for their own sins.”

T R E 4 5 O N

I’m pretty sure there’s only one Jack Smith.

I’m more Christian than these people and I’m an atheist.

Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

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Reader Interactions

210Comments

  1. 1.

    WaterGirl

    I see that Mary Peltola (this is where I picked back up) was greeted with major clapping, I assume because she is back after the loss of her husband.

    What else did I miss?

    Who were the 13 others?

    Have any Rs voted for Jeffries?

  3. 3.

    Scout211

    Link
    Rep. Don Bacon,     of Nebraska, was the first to cast a vote for ex-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. “I just I can’t abide by the fact that a small group violated the rules to get what they wanted,” he said Monday night. “Now I’m supposed to play by the rules. So, I think we got to have consequences and you got to stand up to this.”
    Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, of Oregon, voted for McCarthy.
    Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, of New York, voted for former Rep. Lee Zeldin.
    Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart, of Florida, voted for Rep. Steve Scalise. He had already told CBS News’ Nikole Killion “I’m a no” on Jordan.
    Rep. Jake Ellzey, of Texas, voted for Rep. Mike Garcia, Republican of California.
    Rep. Andrew Garbarino, of New York, was the second to vote for Zeldin.
    Rep. Carlos Giménez, of Florida, voted for McCarthy. After the GOP conference met Monday night, he was asked if his mind had been changed in the meeting. “No,” he replied.
    Rep. Tony Gonzales, of Texas, voted for Scalise.
    Rep. Kay Granger, of Texas, voted for Scalise.
    Rep. Mike Kelly, of Pennsylvania, voted for Scalise.
    Rep. Jennifer Kiggans, of Virginia, voted for McCarthy.
    Rep. Nick LaLota, of New York, voted for Zeldin
    Rep. Michael Lawler, of New York, voted for McCarthy.
    Rep. John Rutherford, of Florida, voted for Scalise

    ETA: Rep. Michael Simpson, of Idaho, voted for Scalise.

    ETA:

    Rep. Steve Womack, of Arkansas, voted for Scalise.

    Rep. Gus Bilirakis, of Florida was absent from the vote. Reps. Ken Buck, of Colorado; John James, of Michigan; David Joyce, of Ohio; and Doug LaMalfa, of California, did not vote.

  6. 6.

    Alison Rose

    @WaterGirl: Yes, this was her first vote since returning after her husband’s death. I was glad to see the ovation was from both sides. The GOP can show a tiny bit of compassion every once in a while, I suppose!

    I know some have voted for Scalise, not sure who else.

  8. 8.

    hells littlest angel

    Republicans giving a standing ovation is their way of saying, “We’re not going to knife you in the back. Not today.”

  9. 9.

    Jackie

    A nod to the earlier thread: I don’t know🤷🏼‍♀️

    Seriously I just turned it on, so I really haven’t a clue.

  11. 11.

    JWR

    I haven’t kept track, but friggin’ Scalise got an extended standing O when he cast his vote for Jordan. What a slime.

  12. 12.

    Kelly

    from downstairs

    Lori Chavez-DeRemer, my OR- 5th Republican, voted for McCarthy. She barely won in 2020 in a Biden district. Been trying to look centerish ever since.

  15. 15.

    PaulWartenberg

    @Quinerly:

    there should have been 55 nays. Alas.

    with any luck the second round of voting will involve Jordan and his MAGA allies openly threatening their Republican colleagues with expulsions and purging for their “betrayal,” just to ensure more of the fence-sitters to break off in retaliation.

  16. 16.

    Trucmat

    Score a point for David Kurtz by correctly predicting the Speaker race was anything but decided. Give another demerit to Josh Marshall for again being pessimistic beyond the facts. Just as with the red wave that didn’t happen in 2022 Josh and the bulk of the punditoctacy continues to buy into narratives set by wishful thinking on the right and despair on the left.

    Josh seems to be a great guy but maybe he needs to say I don’t know a bit more often.

  24. 24.

    hells littlest angel

    @Trucmat: Hear, hear. Josh Marshall is a nice guy, but he has no special political insight. He’s Mr Probably Definitely I Think.

  25. 25.

    Citizen Alan

    @Trucmat:  In Josh’s defense, voting against the craven cowardice of Republicans is usually a sucker bet.

    What was that commotion when a Dem woman halfway through the W’s said something long that got people booing before voting for Jeffries?

    /edit Never mind, apparently is was Auntie Maxine calling Jordan an insurrectionist (Per Allison Rose)

  26. 26.

    PaulWartenberg

    Of course Bilirakis didn’t show up. A careerist who inherited the district from his father, and hasn’t done much to represent that part of North Pinellas County where I grew up.

    Jenni Kiser’s dad should have won that GOP primary for the 9th district in 1982, all I’m saying…

  30. 30.

    jonas

    WTF is Lee Zeldin doing in there? Sure, technically anyone can be nominated, but who thought he would make a good dark horse candidate of some kind?

  31. 31.

    smith

    So, it looks like at the end of the first round, there are 20 holdouts. That’s a lot more than Jordan anticipated.

  33. 33.

    different-church-lady

    @Trucmat: At least Josh is pretty up-front about presenting his views as opinions and theories, rather than certainties.

  34. 34.

    artem1s

    Jordan laughs when Rep. Maxine Waters calls Jordan an “insurrectionist.”
    One House R says loudly: “Huh? What did the communist say?”

    there is no way in hell Gym can get thru this day without saying or doing something that will piss off the R-holdouts (and probably some who voted for him in the first round). He’s such an all around asshole that he cannot manage even one day of grace under fire. He’s going to smirk his way thru this and all his little minions will catcall from the peanut gallery – they won’t be able to help themselves. So much for his promise to his caucus that he’s going to be less caustic. He really needs to adopt the “not this asshole again” rabbit meme as his family crest.

  37. 37.

    Scout211

    @Scout211:

    Added:

    1. Rep.Victoria Spartz, of Indiana, voted for Rep. Massie, of Kentucky.
    2. Rep. Steve Womack, of Arkansas, voted for Scalise.

    Rep. Gus Bilirakis, of Florida was absent from the vote.

  39. 39.

    Eolirin

    @jonas: It’s a protest vote by the NY part of the delegation. He was their gov candidate in 2022. They’re not trying to get him to be speaker they’re just not going to vote for Jordan and don’t want to give a vote to Scalise or McCarthy.

  40. 40.

    Brit in Chicago

    @JWR: “Scalise got an extended standing O when he cast his vote for Jordan”

    Was that before or after it became clear that little Jim wouldn’t make it? (In his position, I’d have waited, in case I could be the one vote to kill it.)

  41. 41.

    schrodingers_cat

    To celebrate J^2’s humiliation I give you 2 numbers of SRK (Shahrukh Khan) dancing with his girl gang

    Chak De India (He is the hockey coach of the women’s national team, who no one expects to win)
    Jinda Banda (From Jawan, where the girl gang are inmates in woman’s prison and some have been incarcerated for crimes they didn’t commit. They were examples snatched from the headlines)

  42. 42.

    Geminid

    @smith: Republicans out to adjourn so they can go scream at each other in their caucus room. Maybe they’ll do another round of voting instead and then go scream at each other.

  43. 43.

    Shalimar

    @jonas: I have seen Lee Zeldin mentioned as one of the 4 or 5 retired members who might be considered as a compromise candidate.  He still has a lot of power in New York.  Not sure how many of his voters were from New York.

    edit: all 3 I see are from New York.

  46. 46.

    Misterpuff

    I wonder if any of the arm twisted Rs vote against Jordan in the next roll call vote?

     

    “Sorry, I voted as you wished but you didn’t get ‘er done.”

  47. 47.

    sdhays

    LOL! He got less than McQarthy on his first ballot! They were saying before the vote that if they got 201, they were good. Couldn’t even get that.

    Not betting the rest don’t eventually come around, but they didn’t meet their own threshold, so…that’s not good for Team Gymmy!

  49. 49.

    Trucmat

    @different-church-lady:

    True. I’ve been a sub there forever it seems and he’s worth reading. Beyond that the personality behind the writer is someone I respect. That’s why his doomering about a red wave got under my skin. It was just wrong on a factual level and counter-productive.

  50. 50.

    Shalimar

    @sdhays: I still suspect Jordan will strong-arm them for however many votes it takes until 16 of the 20 come around.  That said, it wouldn’t be shocking to see it go the other direction and some of those who agreed to vote for Jordan did so only for the 1st round.

  53. 53.

    Shalimar

    @Delk: McCarthy failed to get 19 on the first round.  So Jordan did one worse.

    They are now in recess, so there goes the tire-them-out-until-they-vote-for-Jordan strategy.

  54. 54.

    Scout211

    Is it just me or does anyone else seriously dislike the too-cute phrase “math problem” when people are referring to getting enough votes?

  56. 56.

    Steeplejack

    Great vote-counting, Gym! He had a four-vote buffer and lost 20. I hope he breaks McCarthy’s 15-round record.

  60. 60.

    Alison Rose

    Muted CSPAN as soon as Stefanik started blathering, but I assume she’s talking about what a great man Jordan is, which I’m surprised anyone can do with a straight face.

  62. 62.

    Sean

    @Trucmat: Josh Marshall employs David Kurtz, presumably as an added voice/balance to the editorial content. He gets some credit for hiring good people (including but not limited to Kurtz)

    Marshall is a historian by trade and tends to try to contextualize these kinds of events. I guess it can sound wishy washy, but I don’t think he’s taking the posture of a typical know it all pundit. He’s often wrong and will usually discuss his misses when going back to the larger picture. I appreciate his voice, even if it isn’t always on point.

  67. 67.

    Shalimar

    I think it’s hilarious that Kevin McCarthy voted for Jordan along with the 8 who cost him his Speakership, and not with the 6 who still support them.  Those 6 really do not understand the amoral weathervane they’re supporting.

  68. 68.

    Jeffro

    @hells littlest angel:

    I guess no one is more disappointed than kingmaker Sean Hannity.

    it’s not easy being a “news” show host AND the Republican Party’s whip in the House!  the guy must really keep in good shape to hold down both jobs like that.

  71. 71.

    Alison Rose

    Oh God, CSPAN calls no thank you. Some lady was literally just crying about the 20 GOPers who didn’t vote for Jordan. Get a life, you old bat.

  72. 72.

    Barbara

    @Sean: I think he does tend to be pessimistic and I am not a natural optimist by any means.  He does have a lot of insight — I think he was spot on about what it means for Republicans to have actually voted on who should be the speaker nominee and for everyone, but most notably, the loser Jim Jordan, to see it as just step one.  What does it mean to be a caucus if your members don’t abide by the results?

  76. 76.

    moops

    20 holdouts is a stronger showing than I expected.   That is a lot of GOP pols to threaten before the next vote.  I know Jordan was not thinking he had this locked up, but he wanted his detractors on the record so they could start attacking them openly.  If the number was 6 or 7, that is a small number to bully.  But 20 holdouts will spread the pain around.  It might pull some Jordan votes back out on the next round if the consequences turn out to be mild enough.

  78. 78.

    Shalimar

    @Sean: If I recall correctly from many years ago, Kurtz is the editor Marshall hired early in the site’s history who actually runs the newsroom at TPM.  Maybe that has changed as the staff has grown larger.

  80. 80.

    smith

    One satisfying thing about this whole debacle is that, for once, the GQP nutjobs are the ones feeling the stress. The rest of us have been losing sleep since 2016.

  81. 81.

    JWR

    F*ck. CBS TV news says Israel just bombed a city in South Gaza where they’d told Palestinians to go. :(

  82. 82.

    Geminid

    @Shalimar: McCarthy may be hoping he is the next nominee, and wants to stay on Jordan’s good side.

    Or maybe the 3rd or 4th nominee. They may keep trying to solve this Rubik’s cube all week.

  83. 83.

    Jamey

    What, if anything, does Jordan have to offer to the growing cadre of holdouts?

     

    At least McCarthy went into the Jan 2023 Speaker vote with fallbacks and payoffs planned.

    Jordan couldn’t whip egg whites, even if his life depended on it.

    He started off bellicose and then deëscalated to fuming. Serves the GOP House conference right.

  84. 84.

    TriassicSands

    @Trucmat:

    Yes, but let’s be serious, we’re dealing with a mob of incompetent lunatics. Just because Jordan didn’t get it on the first ballot, like some other illustrious Republican whose name I can’t quite remember, doesn’t mean he won’t get it eventually. After all, if Jordan ultimately were to win on the 14th ballot wouldn’t that demonstrate that the POG (Party of Grievance) is now more stable and united than it was in January? (Laughter tinged with disgust.)

  85. 85.

    jonas

    @Shalimar:  I think it’s hilarious that Kevin McCarthy voted for Jordan along with the 8 who cost him his Speakership, and not with the 6 who still support them.

    Being a leader in the Republican party today is simply an exercise in repeated humiliation and self-debasement. No pride, no honor, no guts. How grown-ass men and women do this to themselves, I’ll never understand. I guess that’s why I’m 1. not a politician and, 2. not a Republican.

  86. 86.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Alison Rose:

    Muted CSPAN as soon as Stefanik started blathering, but I assume she’s talking about what a great man Jordan is, which I’m surprised anyone can do with a straight face.

    From Twitter:

    Audible sighs from Democratic side as Stefanik says “I am reminded of the Book of Esther” during her nomination speech for Jim Jordan

    Ain’t enough rolleyes in the Universe.

  87. 87.

    TriassicSands

    @Jamey: What, if anything, does Jordan have to offer to the growing cadre of holdouts?

    He’s Gym jordan, he can threaten to have them killed. Or their families. Plus, he’s a real charmer.

  90. 90.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Geminid:

    They may keep trying to solve this Rubik’s cube all week.

    It’s really more like a 15-puzzle in terms of complexity, but even that’s way too challenging for them.

  92. 92.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Anoniminous: ​
     The House is in recess while the members take pleasure. As one wag at Wonkette said, by hitting Gym with a baseball bat.

  93. 93.

    surfk9

    What’s the over/under for how many votes need to be taken to elect a speaker?  I’m thinking 15

  94. 94.

    Bill Arnold

    In case it is not already linked in this thread, the NYTimes has a house speaker election tracker today. During voting, the votes table was being live updated every several seconds.
    House Speaker Election
    (Now to read the thread during breaks from work.)

  95. 95.

    JWR

    @The Thin Black Duke:

    I can’t open your bluesky link, but here’s the story from the AP:

    KHAN YOUNIS, Gaza Strip (AP) — The Gaza Health Ministry said an Israeli airstrike Tuesday hit a Gaza City hospital packed with wounded and other Palestinians seeking shelter, killing hundreds. If confirmed, the attack would be by far the deadliest Israeli airstrike in five wars fought since 2008.

    Photos from al-Ahli Hospital showed fire engulfing the hospital halls, shattered glass and body parts scattered across the area. The ministry said at least 500 people had been killed.

  96. 96.

    jonas

    @lowtechcyclist:  Audible sighs from Democratic side as Stefanik says “I am reminded of the Book of Esther”

    Did she actually pronounce it “Ess-ter”, or pull a Trump and say “Ess-thur” or something? Most of these performatively-religious Republicans wouldn’t know a Bible if you slapped them upside the head with one.

  99. 99.

    StringOnAStick

    @Kelly: Hey Kelly, who do you prefer to run against our current R rep?  There are 3 D’s in the running so far, who do you think stands the best chance of winning?  I haven’t been here long enough to know much about the two who more recently joined the D primary race.

  101. 101.

    Ruviana

    Some of the 20 who voted against Jordan said the pressure to support him made them more determined not to vote for him.

  102. 102.

    Shalimar

    @surfk9: My guess is it won’t get to even 8 votes because they will keep doing most of the negotiating behind closed doors.  If they just kept voting until they got a winner like they did in January, I would put the over/under at 40.

  103. 103.

    Ken

    @lowtechcyclist: Audible sighs from Democratic side as Stefanik says “I am reminded of the Book of Esther”

    She must mean the part near the end where the court is meeting while outside a gallows is being built. I guess she has fond memories of January 6.

  106. 106.

    cain

    @schrodingers_cat: To answer your question from yesterday – I don’t speak Hindi (anymore) – I came the U.S. when I was 4, and only spoke Hindi (lucknow hindi!) my family is Tamil so.. I lost Hindi, gained English and speak some weird broken version of Tamil. I’m relearning Hindi since my wife grew up in Hyderbad so we can do more things together but also to get back something I lost. I’m learning Spanish, but I suspect my Hindi once I get my alphabet down is going to outpace my spanish. :D Listening to Hindi all your life – your brain is already wired.

  108. 108.

    Bupalos

    It’s great that Gym failed, but I’m still struggling to find a plausible scenario I can root for here. Does anyone have a happy ending they can sell me on?

  110. 110.

    cain

    @Shalimar: He might change his vote given that he has support. That would be hilarious. Maybe he voted because Jim is just taking his policies – I don’t think Jim actually has any chops to be a legislator and is just going to be a stick figure that just presents what people give him.

  111. 111.

    cain

    @The Thin Black Duke:

    Jeezus.. why? They must know that there are innocents there. Even if Hamas is hiding there. They are literally following the script that Hamas has laid out. If anything Israel’s IDF is predictable in their behavior.

  112. 112.

    Anoniminous

    @Bupalos:

    Best I can think of is the 20 Other votes don’t show up throwing the election to Jefferies.  Second best, Democrats and a break-away GOP faction agree on a compromise candidate.

    In either case, the Gaetz Rule has to be immediately obliterated.

  116. 116.

    cain

    @JWR: This is fucking genocide – literally giving people directions to go somewhere so they can fly a missile at it.

    Their ancestors who died during the holocaust must be fucking proud.

    Humans.. fucking cursed species – even when bad shit happens to them they can’t seem to gain any empathy for other suffers who are also suffering.

  118. 118.

    Kent

    @Bupalos:It’s great that Gym failed, but I’m still struggling to find a plausible scenario I can root for here. Does anyone have a happy ending they can sell me on?

    My best case scenario.  They circle back around to McCarthy and he gets enough Dem support to get past Gaetz and his band of insurrectionists.  In exchange they agree to some sort of amplified discharge petition process so that bills with broad support like budget bills can be brought to the floor for votes without being held up by Gaetz and his gang.

    But that is probably wishful thinking.  There is zero chance of getting anyone better than McCarthy.

  121. 121.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Bupalos:

    Most of the caucus will clearly vote for anybody just to have this over.  So, a pack of the less insane Rs find someone from their caucus capable of holding to a deal for two days straight.  They make a deal with Jeffries to make sure this guy passes, and the deal is that Rs get to keep on clown car posturing and running sham investigations, but some discharge rules change so must-pass bipartisan stuff like CRs can go through reliably.  Jeffries, who can count, provides just enough D votes to make sure this guy gets elected.  Rs go out claiming victory and their base believes it.

  123. 123.

    smith

    I am extremely uncomfortable about the optics of Biden going to Israel right after they have committed a horrendous war crime.

  125. 125.

    CaseyL

    @Bupalos: The best route might be just to give McHenry more powers, such as to get legislation to the floor for a vote.  He’s already shown himself to be a petty arsehole, but perhaps less of a faithless, bomb-throwing, insurrectionist-coddling dirtbag than most of the rest of the caucus.

  126. 126.

    Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg

    House Republicans should take a chapter from the HR playbook of every American corporation that they so enthusiastically serve. Since everybody is mad, call in about 80 pizzas from Little Caesars or some equally shitty place, along with 3 dozen two liter bottles of lukewarm off-brand sodas.

    That’ll turn the frown upside down.

  127. 127.

    Quinerly

    @Kent:

    I agree with you. Very good chance this all turns back to McCarthy….after many votes. Or bow tie boy given more power to get the House thru the next 90-120 days.

  129. 129.

    Bupalos

    @cain: I don’t think Israelis are actively pursuing genocide. They’re in the kind of emotional surrender where they can’t see genocide as it crosses their path of righteous rage. In terms of strengthening Israel, they honestly may as well be firing missiles at their own cities. It’s 9/11 all over again.

  130. 130.

    moops

    Happy outcomes?    hmmmmm

    Perhaps eventually Jordan’s gang and threats become so horrible to some holdouts that they just vote Jeffries.    Not sure if the Motion to Vacate thing would still be in place.

  131. 131.

    Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg

    @smith:

    They’re our bestest ally ever, at least insofar as they can

    – use us for military aid to keep their neighbors at bay when Israel does shitty things;

    – use us for diplomatic muscle for when Israel does shitty things;

    – use our intel services as cooperating agencies when they’re protecting themselves.

    That “allyship” is a one way street, though. When we needed them to bolster Ukraine, well….you know….

  133. 133.

    Joy in FL

    @Scout211: Thank you for the list of votes.

    The Rep at the end of your list, Rep. Bilirakis, is my Rep. I have called his office a few times, most recently Monday evening. Last night I asked him not to vote for Jordan because of Jordan’s stance that the 2020 election was stolen from T**** . I asked him to vote for someone who put the Constitution first. I figured he would vote for Jordan anyway. But I am not surprised that he was absent.  It’s convenient to avoid taking any stand at all.

  134. 134.

    Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg

    @Bupalos:

    This is why you don’t make national policy on the fly, in the heat of the moment.

  139. 139.

    Barbara

    @Joy in FL: Like I said the other day, “Just get on the bus Gus, get a new key Lee and set yourself free.”  There are many ways to leave, this one kind of cowardly, but still not the worst you can say of someone.

  140. 140.

    Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg

    @moops:

    They could have a giant public Jack and Jill Off.

    First one across the line wins.

    Might not be good governance but it would have entertainment value, and honestly, it couldn’t be worse than what we have now.

  141. 141.

    New Deal democrat

    As per David Kurtz, I think the most accurate update is “we don’t know” what will happen.

    That being said, I think we can lay out a couple of plausible “if/then” scenarios:

    1. In the caucus vote, there were almost 100 votes against Jordan. Over 1/3rd of those melted away in the subsequent secret ballot. Most of *those* flipped in the first vote today. So long as Jordan gains ground in each round of voting, he will continue to be the favored candidate until he wins.

    2. But if his support stalls at any number under about 210 or so for two or at most 3 ballots, I think his candidacy rapidly unravels. And it is more likely that happens than it was with McCarthy earlier this year, because Jordan’s group has made so many enemies and has used such heavy-handed tactics.

    3. If Jordan’s candidacy falters, the two next most likely scenarios are (1) the nomination of McDaniels for a pro tempore or permanent position, followed by (2) the re-nomination of McCarthy.

    4. If all of those fail, that is when we will begin to see more movement towards an accommodation with Democrats. That will only happen if and when a very large number of GOPers are convinced that there is no other way they are ever going to get to 217. This moment, if it comes, is probably still 1 week away.

  142. 142.

    Shalimar

    @CaseyL: Go look at McHenry’s history again.  He has been as anti-Democrat as Jordan for his entire career.  I doubt Democratic House members trust him.

  144. 144.

    CaseyL

    @Shalimar: @WaterGirl:

    I wasn’t contemplating the Democrats having any input into this; I meant, the “happiest ending” possible just within the GOP caucus.

    Democrats will not have a say in the next Speaker.  The GOP will not make deals with Democrats over the Speakership.  They just won’t.

  148. 148.

    Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg

    Or they could, you know, make a power-sharing deal with a speaker that involves EVERYTHING coming to the floor clean for a vote every time, without thumbing the scale by gatekeeping or engaging in bullshit parliamentary tricks.

  149. 149.

    Manyakitty

    @WaterGirl: I am definitely pro-israel, but son of a BITCH. Bibi is trying to get the whole country blown up. I wish he’d just go home to Russia and leave the decent people to clean up his mess. Monster.

  150. 150.

    db11

    @CarolPW: I was about to caution re moral outrage and condemnation before the facts on the ground are verified. (fog of war and all that)

    As of right now there seems to be as much actual evidence that it was a failed rocket launch (possibly triggering an ammunitions / fuel dump) as a deliberate targeting from the IDF.

    Let me be clear that if it turns out to be the latter, then it is unequivocally a war crime (See Russia in Ukraine).

    But what if it was a result of Hamas’ actions and well-known tactic of locating missile batteries and ammunition stores not just in civilian buildings, but in those that generate the most outrage when attacked: hospitals, schools, nurseries etc.?

    Will the wholesale rush-to-judgement be the same as when Israel is at fault?

    ETA: I also want to be clear that the fact that Hamas uses human shields in this way would not excuse Israel from unacceptable civilian death tolls that results from targeting those facilities. My comment was for the case where a failed Hamas missile launch (or other action) was the cause of the explosion.

  151. 151.

    sdhays

    From CNN:

    “This number, this margin, 20 Republicans voting against him, that is much worse than they anticipated — they thought they were within striking distance, Jordan allies even thought they were within ten votes of the speakership,” Raju reports.

    Nobody in that conference can count. I’m skeptical he’s going to get it, at least today.

  152. 152.

    Bupalos

    @Shalimar: I don’t see how there can be any Republican speaker who isn’t a bitter partisan warrior. That’s just where that party is. 90% of what they stand for is just hating Democrats as subhuman agents of modern decline. To me, that part is baked in. The best outcome  I can see is someone that doesn’t fervently believe in leveraging a speakership to shut down the government and defund Ukraine. So basically McCarthy. Which again raises the question to me of why Democrats decided to go here. It seems to be an electoral gambit and I think a really risky one.

  153. 153.

    WaterGirl

    @CaseyL: Oh.  I was reacting to this part.

    The best route might be just to give McHenry more powers, such as to get legislation to the floor for a vote.

    I don’t think McHenry would use that power for good.

  156. 156.

    Ken

    @Bupalos: 90% of what they stand for is just hating Democrats as subhuman agents of modern decline.

    Too long for a rotating tag, but “subhuman agents of modern decline” could work.

  158. 158.

    Searcher

    Note that Republicans must vote for someone — if they vote “present”, that changes the majority requirements.

    If 10 Republicans vote “Present”, Jeffries wins.

  160. 160.

    sab

    Adan Kinzinger says the New Yorkers want their state and local tax deductions back, and Jordan is no tax and therefore no government at any level. Hence the vote for Zeldin.

  161. 161.

    sdhays

    @CaseyL: I just don’t get this absolute certainty. Sure, Republicans hate Democrats, but we are in an unprecedented scenario where enough members of the House “majority” are such asshole wankers that they don’t really want to be part of a governing majority. These people don’t want to work together, and they don’t even have a coherent set of demands. It’s all performance art, and it’s tiresome, especially for their Republican colleagues.

    It’s fine to remain skeptical – it’s completely valid! But I think being certain is just wrong. The lunatic caucus (which isn’t always the same people) have been jerking the rest of them around for a long time, and vacating the Speaker should be the last straw. Maybe it won’t be, but I don’t know what they’ll do, and neither do they.

    We’ll see!

  162. 162.

    Manyakitty

    @WaterGirl: blame Bibi and the far right. It’s disgusting. My grandmother’s family lived in Safed for 8 or 9 generations, but I have never felt so distant from it. I’ve never been, want to go, etc, but not until Bibi goes away.

  164. 164.

    Shalimar

    @Searcher: Republicans won’t vote present.  They will all choose the protest candidate who sends whatever message they’re trying to send.  And thry wonvote for Jeffries. Best Dems can hope is to agree on a compromise caretaker in exchange for concessions.

  165. 165.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @CaseyL:

    The GOP will not make deals with Democrats

    Republicans have already begged Democrats to fix this mess.  They haven’t offered Democrats anything we want yet, but yes, they are willing to work with Democrats on this desperate issue if they can come out looking like they’re the winners.  I think continuing their dumbass investigations and not passing anything blatantly (and the GOP base pats very little attention to legislation) liberal will be enough for their voters to believe that.

  167. 167.

    Bill Arnold

    @WaterGirl:
    Still haven’t seen confirmation that it was an airstrike, as opposed to e.g. an accident with a Hamas weapons depot in the basement. (Massive Israeli air strike is the way to bet given Israel’s prior history.)

  168. 168.

    piratedan

    @Shalimar: considering his “cordial” behavior upon assuming the gavel… I think the idea that he’s anything other than a Roger Stone poppin-jay is giving him the benefit of a doubt that he hasn’t earned.

  171. 171.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @CaseyL:

    Still establishes the point.  Working with Democrats is not unthinkable.  Democrats winning is unthinkable.  It happens regularly in budget negotiations.

    I’m not saying it will happen, and there is no way in fuck they’ll vote for Jeffries, but a face-saving enough assist?  Yeah, it’s realistic.

    Republicans are all assholes.  They’re not all equally insane.

  172. 172.

    Bill Arnold

    @Bupalos:

    Which again raises the question to me of why Democrats decided to go here.

    The Republicans went there. They (McCarthy) offered nothing to Democrats, presumably any Democrats. McCarthy broke major promises to Democrats.
    They are proving that they are collection of incompetent selfish people, in the media, every day.

  173. 173.

    Bill Arnold

    @sab:

    Adan Kinzinger says the New Yorkers want their state and local tax deductions back, and Jordan is no tax and therefore no government at any level. Hence the vote for Zeldin.

    I’m a New Yorker, lower-upper-middle-class, with a middling mortgage, and Trump/the GOP raised my Federal Income taxes by about $3000 per year. They raised taxes for some of my Republican acquaintances as well, and they were a bit irritated about it. (Would be surprised if it affected their votes, but don’t know either way.)

  174. 174.

    wjca

    @WaterGirl: Maybe Biden should cancel his trip to Israel.

    Doing so after announcing the trip definitely makes a point.  And far more emphatically than never having talked about going in the first place.

  175. 175.

    geg6

    @different-church-lady:

    Exactly.  And he never said he was sure Gym would win the vote.  He just thought it was likely.  And he will undoubtedly say he was wrong, as he always does.  He’s not your usual pundit.

  176. 176.

    wjca

    @Joy in FL: The Rep at the end of your list, Rep. Bilirakis, is my Rep. I have called his office a few times, most recently Monday evening. Last night I asked him not to vote for Jordan because of Jordan’s stance that the 2020 election was stolen from T**** . I asked him to vote for someone who put the Constitution first.

    Now you need to be sure and call to thank him for not voting for Jordan.  Positive feedback is important.

  177. 177.

    wjca

    @Comrade Scrutinizer: Ya know, it is possible to not be anti-semitic and at the same time be anti-Israel.

    More to the point, it is possible to not be anti-Semitic, and even not anti-Israel, while at the same time being anti the current Israeli government.

  180. 180.

    Gravenstone

    @WaterGirl: Not sure he does it, but this would be a prime opportunity for Biden to call Bibi and his minions on their bullshit and name this atrocity what it is, a war crime.

  181. 181.

    Another Scott

    @Bupalos:

    Which again raises the question to me of why Democrats decided to go here. It seems to be an electoral gambit and I think a really risky one.

    I don’t think that Democrats had any reasonable choice than to put their feet down and say – as a united caucus – that McCarthy cold not be worked with. He broke the agreement they had on the debt ceiling and the FY24 budget numbers. He tried to do a poison-pill with the CR. He sold his soul to Gaetz and made it possible for the bomb-throwers to break the leadership. He could not be trusted because he was not trustworthy. You cannot work with someone like that. You just can’t.

    The GQP is the majority. They have to figure out how to do the baseline things like keep the lights on and fund the government, and suffer the consequences of their actions as the majority. Democrats rescuing Qevin just invited more dysfunction with them getting blamed as having agency but no power and no way to affect policy in the House.

    Jeffries made the right choice. It’s up to the GQP to fix themselves and show that they can actually keep their word to other members of the House.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  182. 182.

    Geminid

    @Bill Arnold: In 2018, Democrats picked up suburban seats from New Jersey to Michigan to Texas to Southern California, where they picked up 6. There’s no way to know if the limitation by Republicans of the the SALT deduction made a difference, but it probably had an effect.

  183. 183.

    Snarki, child of Loki

    Hey, if the House GOP wants Dem support for Speaker, I have some suggested conditions:

    1. Repeal the debt limit
    2. Gaetz’s head on a platter
    3. Modify the House “dress code” to require MTG and Santos to wear Clown Shoes.
  186. 186.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    @Bupalos: 10 GOPers vote ‘Present’ and the speakership goes to our guy. We don’t get what we want, but at least bipartisan stuff gets a vote.

  187. 187.

    db11

    @Princess: They’ve had a half-day propaganda bonanza where media, governments and blog denizens around the world have rushed to judgment and condemned Israel for its barbarity and war crimes.

    So even when they (Hamas or Islamic Jihad) fuck up and kill hundreds of their fellow citizens, they still score a massive propaganda win.

  188. 188.

    Bill Arnold

    @tobie:
    Anomalies in play right now (this hour at least):
    – A hospital is not an easy target for a random accident.
    – Munitions dumps near/under hospitals are a known Hamas/related method. Storage dumps can be detonated with a strike, or by accident, or with sabotage. Maybe other possibilities.
    – Israel has said that there was flight of rockets, but I haven’t yet seen an denial that Israel struck the hospital, and they would presumably know if they hadn’t, and then, why not deny it?

  189. 189.

    db11

    @Bill Arnold: The IDF was very slow in responding but they finally have now, and unequivocally deny that it was one of their attacks that caused the explosion.

    See my link above.

  190. 190.

    Ken

    @Snarki, child of Loki:

    2. Gaetz’s head on a platter

    After the screaming stops, someone in the Democratic caucus gasps “We meant metaphorically!”

    And someone in the Republican caucus replies, “We know.”

  191. 191.

    Bill Arnold

    @db11:
    Yeah, just read it.
    “The Foreign Ministry says firmly that “the IDF did not conduct any operations in the area at the time of impact.””
    Better that the military deny it, but the Foreign Ministry is reasonably credible here.

  193. 193.

    db11

    @Bill Arnold:

    That tweet that imbeds the video in the TOI article attributes the analysis/report to an “IDF Spokesperson”, though the media release was through the Foreign Ministry.

  194. 194.

    tobie

    @Bill Arnold: Apparently there were several Hamas rockets fired at the same time from the vicinity of the hospital at Tel Aviv.

    This would not be the first time a Hamas rocket has misfired.

    Yes, we’re all speculating and need to be cautious about fog of war. That said, I don’t see how it would be in Israel’s interest to fire a rocket at a hospital just as Pres Biden is set to arrive. Who knows. I’m just a rando civilian in the US guessing about this, as are most of us here.

  196. 196.

    db11

    @tobie: I was debating whether to comment at all before my original post — since I generally prefer to lurk — but when I saw a bunch of otherwise sober commenters pile on to condemn Israel, long before there was confirmation or evidence, I had to speak up.

    What it shows is how quick and careless people are to confirm their priors… and that confirmation bias is an issue for humans generally, not just conservatives, ideologues and nut-cases.

  197. 197.

    tobie

    @db11: It’s painful to see how quick we are to pounce…and I say that about myself, not pointing fingers at anyone. We live in uncertain, dangerous, angry and frightening times. Some restraint is probably in order. What an awful, awful situation. I appreciate you speaking out in a more dispassionate voice than the one I’m able to muster.

  199. 199.

    tobie

    @wenchacha: How so? I don’t mean in general. I mean in this case in which it appears that the only rocket activity in and around the hospital was from Hamas . Your comment doesn’t make sense to me. ETA: unless you’re talking about how the explosion was initially framed in the media.

  200. 200.

    db11

    @tobie: That’s what I mean about confirming our priors: people rush to condemn in the direction of their pre-judgment.

    There was another case a couple of days back about Israel bombing a car of Gazans evacuating along an approved route and people using that as evidence of Israel’s ‘genocidal intent’.

    In that case as well it was a huge propaganda win for Hamas… but when the (video) evidence came out later there was no sound or trail that would indicate a bomb or missile that was dropped from the air — and the shape and nature of the explosion indicated that it most likely came from inside the car.

    It’s impossible from here to know for certain and it’s hard to evaluate accurately evidence at a distance, but people at least to to weigh the balance of probabilities, and after all the evidence has been released/presented — rather than before.

    Oh, and you’re welcome. I’m a half-step more removed than you are, but as a non-Jew that lived in Ashkelon for a time, I’m not completely dispassionate or unbiased.

  201. 201.

    Bill Arnold

    @Manyakitty:

    I’m seeing it reported by Al Jazeera, so yeah

    I’ve been preferentially looking at Al Jazeera for all sorts of reporting the last few months. No paywall, and what agendas they have (outside editorials) don’t align (except by accident) with USA media source agendas. Plus, they seem to be reasonably “reliable” in the journalism sense. (A few failed fact checks: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/al-jazeera/ )

  202. 202.

    Another Scott

    @db11: War is very, very much slower and more confusing than a flurry of news tweets.  We should always be wary, as you say, because there is always confusion – often spread by vested interests.

    RobertMackey on Nitter.net:

    Robert Mackey
    @RobertMackey
    1h

    This tweet was just edited to remove video @Israel presented as evidence that Gaza hospital was struck in an outgoing barrage fired by militants — likely because NYT reporter @AricToler had already noted the clip was recorded about 8pm local time, 40 minutes after hospital strike

    The truth will come out, but it will take time. It always does.

    Hang in there, everyone.

    (via nycsouthpaw)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  203. 203.

    db11

    @Another Scott: Absolutely. People will believe what they already believed and evidence is only used to confirm that.

    Assessing (video) evidence presented through tweets from half a world away — in an era of weaponized social media, disinformation and AI — is always going to be fraught, let alone in the heavily propagandized information environment of a war.

    People should be less certain in general about their conclusions and realize that the broader truth(s) will only emerge after the immediate events have faded.

    The problem is with the “lie spreading around the world before the truth gets its pants on”: that the inital (propagandistic) framing of observed events is always going to have more lasting influence/sway on people’ opinions than any after-the-fact correction — no matter how much later evidence is brought to bear.

    ETA: In this particular case there were several other videos (not just the one embedded in the official tweet) — including from al-Jezeera — that also showed a likely rocket misfire. I’m not able to verify the timestamps on those videos, or whether they’re doctored, but it seems unlikely that al-Jezeera would be a willing conduit for Israeli propaganda.

  204. 204.

    Villago Delenda Est

    Hamas is monstrous to beat the band. The IDF can be, but this does not seem to be the case here. Still first reports, yadda yadda yadda, don’t trust them.

  205. 205.

    Geminid

    @Bill Arnold: Middle East Eye is pretty good, as is Al Monitor. Al Jazeera is a sound source except on news that might make Qatar look bad. Al Jazeera is especially interesting now since Qatar mediated the ceasefire that ended the Gaza May of 2021 and will likely be involved in ending this one. Turkiye and Egypt will likely play a part as well

    Haaretz is the best Israeli media source in my opinion, especially on national security matters. Very anti-Netanyahu. Last time I checked Haaretz had dropped their paywall when this war started.

  206. 206.

    Geminid

    @db11: Adam Silverman analysed the highway bombing in Gaza you speak of in one of his recent Ukraine posts. He may discuss the hospital explosion in tonight’s post.

  207. 207.

    db11

    @Geminid: Thanks – I’ll go read it later this evening.

    Oh, and I’ve much appreciated your informed commentary recently on the war and its context, since your knowledge of Israeli politics is much more current and extensive than mine.

  208. 208.

    Geminid

    @db11: My time is limited, and I had to choose between studying Israeli politics and studying New York City Democratic politics. So I chose the simpler of the two.

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