Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

There are consequences to being an arrogant, sullen prick.

The jury literally has a bell they can ring to force Trump to show up on command. Greatest thing ever!

Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.

The media handbook says “controversial” is the most negative description that can be used for a Republican.

Another missed opportunity for Jamie Dimon to just shut the fuck up.

Narcissists are always shocked to discover other people have agency.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

Bad news for Ron DeSantis is great news for America.

Sadly, media malpractice has become standard practice.

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

‘Museums aren’t America’s attic for its racist shit.’

When we show up, we win.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

Stamping your little feets and demanding that they see how important you are? Not working anymore.

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

I’m just a talker, trying to find a channel!

I’m more Christian than these people and I’m an atheist.

It’s the corruption, stupid.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

I was confident that someone would point it out and thought why not me.

Tick tock motherfuckers!

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

You are here: Home / Political Fundraising / Targeted Political Fundraising 2023-24 / Balloon Juice Virginia Fundraising & Candidate Update (Open Thread)

Balloon Juice Virginia Fundraising & Candidate Update (Open Thread)

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The election is on Tuesday.  I think we made a difference!

The October fundraising numbers have been released in the Virginia Senate and House of Delegates races.  So of course we’re using them to read the tea leaves for our candidates and evaluate our contribution.

To recap, we supported two young promising African American candidates in the Hampton Roads metro area.  Our candidates – Michael Feggans and Kimberly Pope Adams – are challenging two first-term white Republican incumbents, Karen Greenhalgh and Kim Taylor.  We focused on Hampton Roads because it’s Virginia’s swingiest major metro (in the political sense), and not as awash in cash as races in the wealthier Northern Virginia DC suburbs.

Under Virginia law, campaign finance reports for (most of) October were submitted on October 26th, the last report before the election.  There are a number of things we’re looking for:

  • Are our candidates spending the money they’ve raised?
  • How are they spending it?
  • Are they sitting on a surplus, rather than using it for last minute GOTV efforts and media outreach?
  • How does their fundraising compare to their opponents?

The results are encouraging.  We obviously can’t know if our candidates will win on Tuesday, but I think we made a difference!

If you’re interested in details, read on!  If not, jump to the comments, it’s an open thread!

🌸

The Battle of the Two Kims – District 82

Republican Kim Taylor started October with a substantial bank balance of $562,086.  She raised $900,000 in October, including in-kind contributions.  She spent down her surplus, leaving her with an ending balance of only $51,039 as of October 26, 2023.

As a reminder, Kim Taylor is horrible on reproductive rights, and has ties to so-called “crisis pregnancy centers.”  I believe she even ran one of those clinics.  Ugh.

Most of her money came from Republican institutional sources and other dark money, including at least $265,000 from Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC.  She spent much of her funding with Medium Buying LLC, whose client list is a who’s who of odious MAGAts (Lauren Boebert, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Jim Jordan, etc).

Democrat Kimberly Pope Adams started the month with a balance of $355,000.  She slightly outraised Crisis Pregnancy Center Kim by bringing in just over $1,000,000 in October, all of which she spent.  Her ending balance was $210, 532.  “Good Kim” got an influx of money from the Virginia House Democratic Caucus and the Clean Virginia Fund, a pro-renewable energy PAC.  Many of her outlays were to Sage Media, which describes itself as providing “winning media buying strategies for progressive candidates and causes.”

Seems like money well spent.

What’s the take-away from these numbers?  The fundraising totals show that the candidates are running neck-and-neck. The optimistic spin on the tiny balance in Republican Kim’s bank is that she blew through all her money on a “Hail Mary” pass, leaving her with a paltry cash bank for last minute GOTV efforts.  Unless Dark Money rescues her at the last minute.

Democratic Kim was criticized earlier this year for lackluster fundraising, but she has obviously corrected course.  The delightfully named Virginia election forecaster Chaz Nuttycombe continues to rate this as a “toss up.”

What about Balloon Juice’s contribution?  Kim Adams received just over $50,000 in cash contributions of $100 or less in October.  Conservatively estimated (and angel contributions would not be included in the small donor figures), BJ raised at least 20% of that total.

Let’s talk about grass roots support for Forced Birth Kim.  She raised $896 (!!) in cash contributions of $100 or less, from a whopping 16 people!  

🌸

Michael Feggans (D) v. Karen Greenhalgh (R) – District 97

We’ll spend a little less time deep-diving into the numbers of this race for a couple of reasons.  First, Nuttycombe has moved this race from toss up to “tilts Dem” based in part – we presume – on early voting turn out.  Second, the fundraising trends described below seem favorable for flipping this seat.

Greenhalgh is another “crisis pregnancy center” aficionado.  (God, I hate those people!)

Karen Greenhalgh started October with a healthy balance of $865,000 as a result of an influx of dark money in late September.  Michael Feggans had just over 1/3 of that amount, weighing in at $300,000.

But Feggans brought in an impressive $1,450,000 in cash and in-kind contributions in October vs. Greenhalgh’s $945,000.  And much of Greenhalgh’s dark money (including Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia) came in early in the month, before trickling off as the month progressed.  She made a small-ish last-minute media buy in late October, but was still sitting on $500,000 at the end of reporting period.  This could be interpreted as a loss of confidence by donors and the candidate (who wants to hoard her cash for other purposes)?  These numbers may be part of the reason why Nuttycombe upgraded this race for the Democrats.

Like Kim Pope Adams, Michael Feggans received significant donations from the Democratic Caucus and Clean Virginia.  He also got in-kind assistance from Workers Vote.  This organization is affiliated in some manner with Worker Power, which BJ supported last year in Arizona and Georgia.  He also made some major media buys with Sage Media, spending almost all of the money he brought in in October.  He retained a reasonable cushion for last minute GOTV efforts.  All of this looks good!

The October money really tipped the balance for Feggans.  The small donor numbers for these candidates are nearly the same as the Kims.  Feggans also brought in $50,000 in cash contributions of $100,000 or less, meaning BJ accounted for roughly 20% of that (all our donations were split equally).  Karen Greenhalgh has a few more friends in her book club than her Republican counterpart Kim Taylor:  She raised $1,389 in small donations from 29 people.

The election is on Tuesday.  I do think we made a difference!

So… this is a fairly deep-dive into fundraising and the numbers, but we wanted you to know where your money went and how it was spent (to the extent we can determine it from campaign reports).

Let us know in the comments if you found this interesting.  It may be that you guys are not as wonky about this stuff, so it may not be of much interest?

TOTALLY OPEN THREAD.

Reader Interactions

42Comments

  1. 1.

    H.E.Wolf

    20% of the total funds raised in October for two excellent candidates came from Balloon Juice donors – that is AMAZING.

    Congratulations and thank you to everyone who made this happen! Win or lose, the jackal community made a significant difference to the campaigns of Kimberly Pope Adams and Michael Feggans.

  2. 2.

    Alison Rose

    This is so cool, WG. Thank you for putting this info together! Keeping my fingers crossed for both our candidates, because fuck anyone who runs or works for or supports a CPC.

    Also:

    Virginia’s swingiest major metro (in the political sense)

    I needed that chuckle.

  3. 3.

    Almost Retired

    @H.E.Wolf:  Twenty percent of the small donations (under $100) were raised by BJ.  If we raised 20% of the TOTAL funds, we’d be able to finance a hell of a meet-up!!

  6. 6.

    H.E.Wolf

    @Almost Retired:Twenty percent of the small donations (under $100) were raised by BJ. If we raised 20% of the TOTAL funds, we’d be able to finance a hell of a meet-up!! ​
     Hee hee! I love that my math error led to this great mental image of the Best Meet-up Evar. :)

  7. 7.

    TeezySkeezy

    I know the theory is to not get mad that the electorate makes bad decisions and instead *campaign* to change their mind, but, guh, Virginia just reminds me how dumb some voters are about stuff. Dobbs is very unpopular and turned a lot of people against the GOP, and I presume that’s the same in Virginia, but polling indicates too many people *who should know better* don’t believe GOP control in Virginia will be a problem, and approve of Youngkin based on “the economy.” Wut? What’s the logic? Is it something like, “Economy is fine for me, but I’m told its terrible for everyone else, and could be better if Biden wasn’t in charge (cuz Dem bad at econummies), and would be worse if Youngkin wasn’t (cuz GOP gud at munny).”

    I just hope the polling is way off and the GOP is toast in Virginia again. I’d be somewhat optimistic then. Otherwise it’s a dismal 12 months ahead for the pessimists.

  13. 13.

    Fake Irishman

    Good work juicers and Watergirl!

    I really appreciate the pragmatic can-do nature of folks here. People see a problem, they snark about it, and then go “hey, we got ourselves a top-10,000 blog here. What can we do to fix things?”

  14. 14.

    Redshift

    Let us know in the comments if you found this interesting.  It may be that you guys are not as wonky about this stuff, so it may not be of much interest?

    Oh, I am totally wonky about it!

  18. 18.

    BlueGuitarist

    @Alison Rose:

    There’s also a great picture of very young Kim Adams at her website, which i’m pretty sure WG posted here.

    At Michael’s website, i think the first picture of him, smiling, and the one with Barack are great.

    I’ve gotten a couple of emails from Elaine Luria urging support for Michael, whose state house district is entirely in her old US House district, which will be one of the top D opportunities next year to flip the US House.

  24. 24.

    Alison Rose

    One thing I’m curious about: Do the campaigns see when donations are made through an ActBlue thermometer like ours? Or do they just look like individual donations on their end?

  25. 25.

    Gretchen

    Im distressed  to learn that even statehouse races require million dollar funding. I’m gla Balloon Juice can help with that.

  26. 26.

    Czar Chasm

    FLUVANNA COUNTY, VA

    Early voting numbers are waaayyy up this year, which is hopeful for myself and my colleagues.

    All the oxygen in the room here has been taken up by the two conservative school board candidates’ antics two weeks ago, when they flooded the public comments section with tirades about 17 books that should be banned.  Interestingly enough, the books they selected appear to be ones that are frequently targeted by Mons for Liberty.  A lot of ppl here had their noses tweaked by this, so it looks like their stunt backfired.

    I wanted to thank all y’all here that contributed in early October to my Treasurer campaign.  It made a big difference in the scope of several GOTV campaigns.  Here’s to hoping that it will get us on top!

    Keep all fingers crossed, and your towel handy…

  27. 27.

    OzarkHillbilly

    I saw this in this mornings Guardian: Abigail Spanberger flexes her political power in a battleground state: ‘I could see her as president’

    As two dozen volunteers prepared to knock doors on an unseasonably warm afternoon in late October, Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger reminded them that their work helped flip her battleground House seat in 2018. She predicted it would pay off again for Virginia Democrats this year.

    “It is how we have won in hard races across Virginia and across the country, and it is certainly why I feel confident that we are on the right path headed towards November 7,” Spanberger said, speaking to campaign volunteers in a sunny parking lot in Manassas.

    Spanberger has played an active role in boosting Virginia Democrats’ hopes for election day, as the party looks to flip control of the house of delegates and maintain their majority in the state senate. The stakes are high: Republicans would achieve a legislative trifecta in Richmond if they take control of the state senate, allowing them to enact controversial policies like banning abortion after 15 weeks and limiting access to the ballot box.

    With her carefully crafted political persona as a centrist Democrat, Spanberger may be the right person to deliver her party’s closing message in the final stretch of the campaign. In Manassas, Spanberger laid out her vision for how Virginia Democrats would succeed on 7 November, saying: “There is nothing more important than helping people believe that the policies and the government – whether it be in Richmond or on Capitol Hill – that they want is possible.”

    The results on Tuesday could affect Spanberger’s own future as well; the congresswoman has reportedly told multiple people that she intends to run for governor in the battleground state. If she is successful, her victory would allow Democrats to take back the Virginia governorship, which is now held by Republican Glenn Youngkin, in 2025.

    For now, Spanberger has declined to confirm those plans, insisting she remains laser-focused on this year’s crucial elections.

    “I have enjoyed spending time with people who are in the voting mindset,” Spanberger said in August. “As for anything that I might do in the future, I’m not going to make any announcements until after November.”

    It’s mostly a profile on her but it does talk about her efforts on behalf of VA DEMs this cycle. I thought it worth passing on here.

  29. 29.

    WaterGirl

    @Gretchen: It’s crazy, isn’t it? But these can’t be seen as regular statehouse races. These are critical, close races in an election that is pretty much for all the marebles in the state of VA.

    It’s very much like the WI SC race in its importance.

  33. 33.

    BlueGuitarist

    delightfully named Virginia election forecaster Chaz Nuttycombe continues to rate this as a “toss up.”

    Chaz N forecasts federal and state elections, his website CNalysis might be the only place currently forecasting state legislative elections. (EveryDistrict which used to rate every state legislative district, has closed down.)

    I don’t know Chaz, don’t know his political preferences, but whatever they are, i guess he sets them aside to try to forecast accurately. In 2022 he saw the electorate as leaning more Republican than it turned out to be. I assume that was a good faith, but in the 2022 elections I followed closely, Democrats won most of the contests he rated Tilt-R, and seats he rated Lean R, Likely R, and Very Likely R as well; if Democrats had no chance of winning those they would have been rated Solid R.

  36. 36.

    Czar Chasm

    @WaterGirl: Honestly, I think I have a damn good shot!   Our county has become purple-favoring-blue in the past several years, and a lot of Rs don’t like my opponent.  Add to the fact that the opponents’ camp has been making some unforced errors in the last few weeks (the school incident, lack of GOTV).

  39. 39.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Geminid:

    I’ve been living on the other side of the Potomac for too long now – I had to look up where Fluvanna County was. I used to know that sort of thing without even thinking about it.

  40. 40.

    Geminid

    @lowtechcyclist: Fluvanna kind of hides out in the middle Piedmont, but after next Tuesday everyone will know where Fluvanna County is.

    And what it is: “The Blue Bellwhether of the Old Dominion.”

  42. 42.

    JAFD

    If we jackals aren’t the amateurs (look up the Latin derivation of that ;-) ) most interested in the wonky bits of politics on the ground, who ye hech are ???

    so count me as fan of ye nuts and bollts, and please keep it up

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