“Countries don’t have friends, they have interests.”
If you have watched or listened to Beau of the Fifth Column very much, you have probably heard that before.
That was the premise of this 10-minute discussion about Israel, Saudi Arabia, and more. It’s really worth a listen – a thoughtful, nuanced, practical take; definitely food for thought.
He talks about the the diplomatic efforts and how they are going, about public messaging, how the US efforts are being perceived, and why the United States is walking a tightrope. He answers this question: if foreign policy is about power, and Israel is a liability, why don’t we kick Israel to the curb?
He also discusses poles of power in the Middle East (Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia), de-prioritizing the Middle East so we don’t want to get drawn directly into war several years down the road, and the loss of the Arab world for a generation.
He posits that the US needs Israel for long-term planning, but at the same time, we cannot lose the Arab world, so it’s the most delicate, high-stakes situation the US has been in for a very long time. And it’s complicated by domestic politics, the upcoming election with populations that need the US to take certain actions, and those actions are in direct contradiction with one another.
And balancing long-term interests, even as atrocities are being committed on the ground, seemingly by both sides.
Is Beau right about this? We can discuss that in the comments.
Open thread.
Baud
I don’t know. Social media makes it seem so simple.
WaterGirl
@Baud:
I can definitely see why that would be off-putting.
edit: Seriously, though, I hope people will watch the 10-minute video. I tried to not give away all the interesting stuff he said, and instead attempted to describe the broad outlines so people might actually watch.
WaterGirl
@Baud: Perhaps any solution that begins with the phrase “he should just” should be dismissed out of hand.
Harrison Wesley
@WaterGirl: Ah, yes! The ‘one weird trick’ theory of foreign policy.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@Harrison Wesley: Ten simple things you can do right now to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Listicle subscribers only
Nukular Biskits
@WaterGirl:
That reminds me of an engineer where I work who, often being completely unencumbered by the thought process or any relevant experience with the topic being discussed, will respond with the words, “Well, all you gotta do is …”.
Those have become code words in the office for mocking anyone who tries to reduce a complex issue to simple terms.
WaterGirl
Did anyone watch the video? I’m really interested to hear reactions, but it appears possible that I may not get any!
Geminid
My data plan makes watching video or hearing podcasts problematic, so I won’t comment on specifics other than that there is another regional power besides Saudi Arabia and Iran. That woud be Turkiye, with (like Iran) 85 million citizens, Nato’s 2nd largest army and 3rd largest air force.
Turkiye recognized Israel in 1948 and has enjoyed diplomatic relations with Israel ever since, unlike the other two countries, although Saudi Arabia has been edging towards recognizing Israel recently
Ed. The United Arab Emirates is another significant player in the Middle East; they align with Saudi Arabia on most but not all matters. Qatar is another significant player, and it is a canter for negotiations right now. And Egypt is also an important player, at when it comes to this war
WaterGirl
I just walked into the bedroom, and found that Miss Willow had made herself comfortable in the tiny space between the pillows and the clean laundry. I walked out to get my phone/camera but by the time I walked back in she had already left her adorable position behind.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@WaterGirl: I watch Beau every day. Problem is I’m slacking at work but I don’t want audible proof of my slacking
WaterGirl
@Geminid: Since you can’t watch, Beau’s thought is that the 3 key poles in the Middle East are Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. And that we need two of those key poles to be mostly on our side, as compared to siding with Russia or China. Otherwise the concern is that we could be pulled into a boots on the ground war in the middle east in a few years,
The whole thing seems to help explain why we didn’t tell Saudi Arabia to fuck off after they murdered and dismembered a journalist living in the US.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@WaterGirl:
I watched it. Beau’s point that this is the reason you probably don’t want a narcissistic real estate developer who treats everything as a transaction in charge of the United States is the main thing that resonated with me.
“One weird trick.” It hardly ever works in any context, never mind something as fraught as the Middle East. Sure, there’s an easy answer: the two state solution. And Israel has to dismantle the illegal settlements. OK, problem solved.
It’s pretty obvious that Netanyahu’s approach hasn’t worked. This is why the Israeli public is furious with him. I hope it spells the end of his political career but my record on predictions is not good.
WaterGirl
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation: Okay, well tell me tomorrow, then what you think of this one?
I don’t always agree with him. Recently, there was one big thing I disagreed with him about, and I was shaking my head as I was listening, but about a week later he came back with a change of heart.
WaterGirl
@Mr. Bemused Senior: Bibi appears to have more political lives than a cat.
Yes, I loved that description of Trump that you referenced.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: Sounds too simple to me. But this is like Covid, where people who never paid much attention to infectious diseases became experts in epidemiology overnight.
Much of the debate about this war leads me to the opinion that with some people, the less they know about this conflict the more certain they are in their opinions
Ed. Its possible that “Beau” has been following this conflict closely the last few years, but he may be like most Americans and has not. Most people in the US do not pay much attention to this conflict unless and until there is a war going on.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@WaterGirl: I watched it. It made me think about the situation in a new way. I’ve never had that level of far-sightedness about US goals in the Middle East.
Harrison Wesley
@Geminid: If I can believe what I see in the news (and that’s not a given), Turkiye and Israel are on the outs at the moment. And I don’t know that US leadership has what it takes to get Iran on side. It’s not just Israel that’s itching to have US take a whack at Iran; there’s a serious element (most prominently Sen. Graham) here at home that thinks busting up Iran is A Good Thing. No, I’m not nostalgic in the least for the sainted John McCain with his ‘bomb-bomb-bomb, bomb-bomb-Iran.’
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
I know almost nothing about this conflict save for the principle players and both sides’ (for real this time) indifference to life in pursuit of their selfish goals. I’m certain we SHOULDN’T BE helping either of them kill the other.
edited
WaterGirl
@Geminid: Oh, no, pretty sure Beau reads everything. He is quite knowledgeable.
WaterGirl
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I agree. Our foreign policy team, which I think is great even if I don’t like every single thing they do, is playing the long game. And it’s a good thing they are!
I’ll bet it’s like they are doing the 1,500-piece jigsaw puzzle and most civilians have the kiddy version with 9 big pieces. :-)
WaterGirl
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation: I feel certain that there is not anywhere near enough regard for human life, for civilians, and I Hamas and Bibi both appear to be willing to sacrifice children and other civilians fo the cause.
I agreed with every word Hillary said in the video Anne Laurie linked to this morning.
Geminid
@Harrison Wesley: Turkiye and Israel used to be informal military allies. That changed under Erdogan, and he fell out with Israel in 2011 after they raided a relief convoy bound for Gaza and killed 7 Turkish citizens. Israel eventually paid damages but relations remained in the icebox for years.
Then in 2021 Erdogan warmed them up again, and the two countries exchanged ambassodors for the first time in years. Israel withdrew its diplomats 4 weeks ago for security reasons, and last week Erdogan called Turkiye’s ambassador back to Ankara for consultations.
Erdogan has taken a fairly strident tone towards Israel in public speeches but as some Arab critics note, Turkiye hasn’t cut off Azerbaijani oil on its way to Israel.
Erdogan may just be trying to stay ahead of Turkish public opinion here. There are important municipal elections next Spring, and Erdogan has set his sights on winning back mayoralties in Ankara and Istanbul from the CHP opposition bloc.
I think the key thing to watch with Turkiye is not what Erdogan says but what Hakan Fidan, his Foreign Minister does. Fidan is very much trusted by Erdogan, and was head of M.I.T., Turkiye’s intelligence service, for 11 years before Erdogan made him Foreign Minister last May. Fidan knows the region well and is in turn well known by the various players.
WaterGirl
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation: In your last sentence, it looks like there might be a word missing?
Chetan Murthy
@WaterGirl: I watched the entire thing. And …. well, I think Beau is missing a ton. His view is not “very simplistic”, but it is “pretty simplistic”.
Both KSA and Israel have repeatedly flaunted their ability to tell us to pound sand on important big-picture strategic interests. I don’t mean the mere murder of a US resident. I mean cozying up to and giving material aid to our number-one geopolitical adversary. I mean allowing rogue citizens and government agencies to fund violent terrorist groups that attack the US directly. I mean selling US-derived technology to both our first and second most important geopolitical adversaries.
And that doesn’t even get to the issue of Israel directly fucking up our Middle East policy with their
slo-mo ethnic cleansingsettlements.Beau doesn’t get into any of that, and that’s why I call his analysis simplistic. Neither Israel nor KSA are reliable clients, not even as reliable as the Philippines, FFS (and I remember Duterte, so it ain’t like the Philippines are driven snow).
Now sure, in the middle of a hot war is not the time to be jerking Israel’s chain. But we let Bibi get away with this shit (and frankly, his predecessors too!) for decades. And again, even if we set aside his building settlements, his selling drones to Russia, his selling military tech to China, should have been 100% off-limits.
Other empires have been caught in this trap, allowing themselves to be *used* by their ostensible clients. This isn’t something new under the sun.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@WaterGirl: Two words “we shouldn’t be helping either of them kill the other”
Geminid
@WaterGirl: That may be so. I think someone could get a pretty good idea of what goes on in Israeli politics if they read Haaretz every day. If someone relies on American reporting I think they would miss a lot.
Chris Johnson
@WaterGirl: Absolutely did watch it, I watch Beau avidly.
I’ve never found his takes implausible, and this one is disheartening, sobering, but fair. I don’t really know what we’re to do as a country, other than try to pay attention to what’s happening. I think Biden and his team have been trying their hardest, but they’re up against Netanyahu and nega-Nazis who (like plenty of our own hardline rightwingers) are really happy to run with genocide, and aren’t listening.
They (the hardline Zionist politicos) don’t represent Jews in general, at all, any more than Trump represents us, but we’re responsible for stopping Trump from representing us, and we’re doing our best. May we have better success in that aim.
I thought Netanyahu had the impression that Russia was helping Hamas, which they probably are. I overlooked that Netanyahu helps Hamas in order to harden Israel’s position, much like our own right-wingers overreach and get up to psychotic shit.
sab
@Geminid: A lot of Israelis (sabras) have grandparents or great- grandparents who grew up under Turkish rule.
Israelis get cut a slack for “accidentally” killing other countries’ citizens. Turks, who know Israelis close up, do not fall for that crap.
WaterGirl
@Chetan Murthy: I can’t disagree with a lot of what you said. Of course you can’t get the entire picture in a 10-minute presentation. But with this 10-minute presentation and that 10-minute presentation, over time you can certainly get a sense of the bigger picture.
Israel is our best ally in that region, and I think Bibi’s leadership has not been good for Israel. We certainly don’t get to pick the other players in the region. I agree with Hillary that Hamas is the biggest problem. One thing I know for sure is that all the disregard for human life is distressing.
WaterGirl
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation: Would you like me to fix that?
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@WaterGirl: Shit, why not?
Just know I would never take it upon myself to ask.
Chetan Murthy
@WaterGirl: Israel also has *no choice* in patrons. They know this, and yet over the decades we rarely use that power over them. And again, even if we set aside the way they treat the Palestinians[1] the way they backstab us regarding Russia and China ought to be unacceptable. At the end of the day, respect for human rights is a means, not an end for great powers. It is what it is. But allowing our clients to backstab us when it comes to the largest picture strategic imperatives, that should be unacceptable.
[1] I fully support Israel’s war against Hamas, and that includes bombarding Gaza’s cities. B/c there’s no other alternative. But I also firmly believe that Israel must return *all* the Occupied Territories, including all the settlements (in their current improved condition, not demolished) to the PA.
sab
@WaterGirl: And Hamas ( enabled by Bibi) and Likud are both responsible. Nobody in power in Israel or Gaza gives a crap about normal Gazans.
Geminid
@Chris Johnson: The current Israeli government could hardly be said to represent a majority of Israelis. Last November’s election saw an almost 50-50 split in the pro- and anti-Netayahu vote. But the Arab Balad party and the predominately Jewish Meretz party both fell short of the 3.25% threshold and their votes were wasted. What might have been a 60-60 tie in the Knesset became a 64-56 majority for Netanyahu’s 4-party coalition.
That was Israel’s 5th election since 2019. There was voter fatigue on the left, and the two Ultra-Orthodox parties and the racist National Religious party voters were better motivated. Still, had Labor Party leader Michaeli agreed to form a joint slate with Meretz, and the Balad party leader not split from the Arab Joint List, there would likely have been a 60-60 tie. Then there would either have been a another election, or more likely the ultra-Orthodox parties would have defected to form a coalition under centrist Benny Gantz.
Princess
There’s no such thing as “the Arab world.” There are oil states and no-oil states. There are leaders and then there are citizens. They all have different perspectives.
Worth remembering also that Iran and Turkey are not Arab, and so wouldn’t be part of that world if it did existed. Also, I’d say Egypt is a pole too, with very different interests than Saudi Arabia.
sab
I hate to pollute this thread with sports, but my husband outside of Cleveland has been scaring the pets ( five cats, one dog) all day watching the game and shrieking a lot and loudly. He was angry. Our coach is an idiot!Etc! Etc! Also Baltimore stole our team
At some point I tried to talk to him. After an unfortunate contact he admitted his tiny brain was hooked only on football.
Then after a bad game the Browns at the last possible minute beat the Ravens (Baltimore) . Yay!
Brachiator
Beau’s commentary is very interesting and tries to avoid simplistic observations. I agree that at some level countries don’t have friends, only interests. But I don’t know that Arab leaders in the region are speaking for the Arab public. Like many world leaders, they are trying to hold onto power and to deal with internal and external threats to their continued control.
And at the most cynical level, I would say that the US wants to make sure that the oil keeps flowing, and political stability is crucial to ensure that this continues.
One thing that Beau said puzzles me. There is no US led military solution that would resolve anything. Gunboat diplomacy is really not an option. Also, I don’t know that the current super powers are playing a zero sum game in the region. That is, Russian or Chinese attempts to gain influence does not necessarily hurt the US, even though it might create mischief for the countries in the region. And the Saudis and Iran are happy to play the US against the other countries without giving anything meaningful in return.
I appreciate the cautious approach that the Biden administration is taking, even though this frustrates a lot of people.
frosty
Boo!
ETA: Indianapolis stole OUR team first!!!
sab
@Geminid: So they say, but a generation or three of Israelis struggled for months to form a government. Since Bibi, they form a government in weeks.
I am long past thinking that this is a government that most Israelis so not want. Genocide for peace even.
WaterGirl
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation: I don’t fix typos but when someone leaves out a word that changes the entire thing they were trying to say, I usually offer. :-)
CaseyL
“Nations do not have permanent friends or enemies, only interests” – first spoken by Henry John Temple, a British Prime Minister in the 1800s. I looked it up, because I thought Talleyrand had said it first.
There is a great big fat international push to delegitimize and undermine the US as a major player – not by people who want to end corporate oligarchy, and not by people who “want a better world,” and not by the ones criticizing the US’ history of siding with fascists. Quite the opposite: the international players opposing the US and working to undermine the US are the oligarchs, the fascists, and so on.
To paraphrase Spider Robinson, if you don’t think the US — even with all its faults and terrible history — is still the best hope for improving the state of the world, then please do tell us who that best hope is.
Because it sure as hell isn’t the KSA, Iran, Russia, or Türkiye.
Geminid
@Brachiator: The U.S. has two carrier groups and a number of other ships in the region. That is a lot of firepower. In this case the effect of the U.S.’s gunboat diplomacy is to deter a wider war between Hezbollah and Israel. Iran has provided Hezbollah with a stockpile of missiles estimated at well over 100,000 as estimated in an Al Jazeera report. That figure is commonly accepted by other observers. Some of these rockets are fairly large and have guidance systems.
The U.S. has not said expilcitly that we would intervene if a full scale war broke out between Hezbollah and Israel, but I expect we would by bombing Hezbollah rocketeers and shooting down their missiles, and I think we have let Hezbollah and Iran know that.
CarolPW
The leaders of our two most likely “friends” in the region, Israel and Saudi Arabia, want Trump to be president.
The transformation of the Jerusalem US Consulate to the Palestinians into the US Embassy to Israel, and the reduction in staff numbers and authority for those handling Palestinian affairs cripples the US response.
Harrison Wesley
@Princess: I don’t know about Turkiye, but there’s a pretty substantial Arab population in Iran.
Viva BrisVegas
We’re 75 years into the Israel/Palestinian conflict and I suspect we have a considerable way to go yet. The Israeli government wants the West Bank, but doesn’t want its present population. That is not going to change.
Nobody wants Gaza. Nobody wants to have to think about Gaza. That needs to change if Israel wants to stop having to “mow the lawn” every few years. Israel will need to consider Gazans as human beings and not inmates of the world’s largest open air prison. We live in hope.
What’s interesting is how the conflict has coalesced what was a loose alliance between Iran and Russia into a nascent “Axis of Evil”. China is watching how it turns out, as opportunistic as ever. Bibi’s playing footsie with Putin over the past few years in their pro-Trump alliance now looks incredibly naive and counter productive.
Geminid
@sab: I am not certain that is so. The two previous governments did not take much longer to form than the almost 9 weeks it took Netanyahu. The one right before this one took about 4 weeks longer but that was because Netanyahu had the first mandate but failed to come up with a coalition. That process was suspended for two weeks on account of the May, 2021 Gaza war. Then Lapid succeeded in cobbling together an 8-party coalition that lasted a year and a half, the last five months as a caretaker government
The government before that, with Gantz and Netanyahu in an uneasy coalition, took no more time to form than the most recent one, and maybe a week or so less.
This last one came down to the wire because Smotrich and Ben-Gvir had Netanyahu over a barrel and extracted as much as they could from him as far as cabinet posts. That process had a lot to do with the dismal events since. Netanyahu put his personal interests above those of the Israeli people in allying himself with political arsonists Smotrich and Ben-Gvir.
Tom Levenson
I’m not going to get into the meat of the discussion above, as to do so would require much more time than I have now. I will say that I wouldn’t pick Beau of the Fifth Column as a source or starting point for a natsec discussion. I don’t know what to make of allegations of a shady past—again, I have no time right now for a proper dive—but going to his own website own website I find nothing that makes me think he has expertise or significant background knowledge here, and some red flags. See his portfolio page for sources of my discomfort—a drive-by paean to Ron Paul was one warning sign, and the rest of his clips varied from nonexistent (dead links) to no where near this subject area.
Arguments from authority suck. I’ve found, though, that absence of authority—as in demonstrated expertise, background knowledge, prior work in the field—is a big warning sign, especially on any issue that is complex, long standing, and has resisted a lot of sincere and in depth efforts to resolve it.
Adam L Silverman
Beau of the Fifth Column’s real name is Justin Eric King. Here’s the key portion of his bio, you won’t find anything in it about degrees in Middle Eastern politics, international security, or any experience in national security:
Ian
I don’t know if I agree that this is true. Obviously “friend” is a metaphor here, but I tend to think countries stick together based on shared history and shared agreements. Consider the U.S. and the Philippines. Just a few months ago the Biden Administration publicly affirmed that the U.S. would defend the Philippines in event of naval conflict with China over the disputed islands between them. Is that in the U.S.’s interest? Maybe, in a really vague we have to have Indo-Pacific alliances kind of logic. A much better explanation is that the U.S. and the Philippines have a shared history that compels them to stick together in international affairs. We (the U.S.) chose the Philippines over China here not because interest but because common values and agreements. That fits friendship in a metaphor for international relations.
Think about this in regards to Ukraine. What if all of a sudden it became in our best ‘interest’ to suddenly support Russia? What if they offered us resources at negotiated rates for 200 years? Agreed to receive all of our landfill waste and nuclear by-product waste in shipping containers for the next century? Would it be okay to abandon Ukraine because our interests changed? Or is there a moral calculus of shared values and considerations of right and wrong that also impacts foreign affairs regardless of interest?
Edward Brennan
The magic is in the reduction to national “interest”.
That is the ill-defined simplification. And one that has doomed the sophomorically smart for generations.
It is the rational economic man of economics reduced to nations. And it is a reduction that is the same amoral one as this. Just put forward at the state level.
National interest is forever changing based on who is in power, who has influence on those in power, the backlash that might result both domestically and abroad. It has the same elements of how peoples think about themselves, Adam Smith’s desire to be loved, but be lovely. We use a the term as a simplified heuristic which is useful as long as we understand the limitations.
But like rational man, national interest in this form doesn’t. It is grotesque and it is wrong because of that sophomoric simplification.
Replace man with nation and see what you get with
“Whatsoever therefore is consequent to a time of Warre, where every man is Enemy to every man; the same is consequent to the time, wherein men live without other security, than what their own strength, and their own invention shall furnish them withall. In such condition, there is no place for Industry; because the fruit thereof is uncertain; and consequently no Culture of the Earth; no Navigation, nor use of the commodities that may be imported by Sea; no commodious Building; no Instruments of moving, and removing such things as require much force; no Knowledge of the face of the Earth; no account of Time; no Arts; no Letters; no Society; and which is worst of all, continuall feare, and danger of violent death; And the life of man, solitary, poore, nasty, brutish, and short.
That is the world promised by this “realistic” worldview.
There is more to interest than just power. And that is what this almost 11minutes leaves out. It is inhuman.
And what truly makes me sad is that this simplified and cynical take is the one that runs our mainstream media. It is the one that many members of many governments go by. It is also the one that convinces many that both sides are immoral and inauthentic. Machiavellian princes aimed at using people.
That is all there is so in the end, I just need to get mine. Both personally and nationally. Or I just don’t want to take part in those evil politics. It leads to even greater simplification and the outcomes of vengeful authoritarianism out to hurt those who might hurt us, because all they have is their interests not mine. There is no ours.
Brachiator
@Chetan Murthy:
See Rule Number 1. Nations have interests, not friends. This applies to clients as well, who will always pursue their own interests, not those of their supposed masters.
Pakistan easily comes to mind as another unreliable client.
But sometimes an untrustworthy relationship is better than none at all. At least, those in power often think so.
pluky
He mentions the domestic political complications of any action the Biden administration might take, but leaves his analysis at things people want “are in direct contradiction” (~6:38). Going into an election cycle with a well established and influential pro-Israel lobby on one side, and a mass of voters of Arab descent in the the swing State of Michigan on the other is a very real short-term complication much closer to home.
Geminid
@CarolPW: I’m not sure Israeli or Saudi leaders neccesarily want Trump as President again. He’s too fickle and self-interested to be a good ally to either country.
frosty
@frosty: Oops, I think I just showed that everything is tribal, even amongst jackals
More OT: my favorite sports trivia: what was the original name of Baltimore’s MLB and NFL teams?
Dangerman
Here’s my fundamental philosophy on things like the Middle East. Also, string theory. Who the fuck can think in 11 dimensions (put your damn hand down Donald).
At risk of needing a flame retardant suit, my basic belief is:
I don’t know shit about the ME. If I sat in a symposium for a week, I still effectively won’t know shit. There’s some stuff you just have to leave to the experts (seriously, Donald, put your damn hand down unless you need to take a piss) and pray they get it right.
Ukraine I kinda understand. ME, sadly, is just beyond me.
Gvg
@Chetan Murthy: Client state does not mean conquered territory. At least for us it doesn’t. We aren’t going to go mess with their sovereignty no matter what they do and their interests are never identical to ours. So we should trust Israel less and guard our secrets more sure. We probably are giving them less money than we would if they were more trustworthy. They still think the settlements and pushing out the Palestinians is in their best interest.
What do you do when an ally is trying to shoot himself in the head? And insists they are being wise?
oldster
Even if it is a confusion to think that one nation can have friendly feelings towards another nation, there is no doubt that individual humans can have friendly feelings towards nations, and some of those individuals can vote.
So, when I have friendly feelings towards Ukraine, I vote for people who will support it. When I have friendly feelings towards Israel, I vote for people who will support it.
And if my government is (at least minimally, marginally, nominally) responsive to the votes of its citizens, it will then act, sometimes, as a result of the friendly feelings of its citizens.
At which point, the nation will act a lot as though it has friends. Not because nations have friends, but because some nations have voters who care about other nations.
RevRick
@WaterGirl: I listened to it.
Chris T.
@WaterGirl:
And, in this particular analogy, the pieces are constantly changing shape and some of them are made of flash paper or other explosively combustible material. Put any two particularly antagonistic ones next to each other and boom!
p.a.
Tangental irony, also I acknowledge that anecdote =/= data, and this is a small sample size. I was surprised that the few retired military I know (5 of 6 still living, all over 65 years old) had no love for Israel, and wouldn’t care if we ended support, all based on the USS Liberty incident from the 7 Day War. I would have thought (knowing the rest of their politics 🤢) that they would have been all-in on “let god sort them out.”
I don’t know how accurate their accounts are or how accurate the Wikipedia info is.
Chetan Murthy
@Gvg: Ah, I meant “clients” like the UK, Canada, even Mexico. And of course the countries of NATO (though, sigh, even there, there are exceptions). I think your word “ally” fits, but a “client” is in a more subordinate relationship.
SenyorDave
With much of the American Jewish community there is simply no possibility of nuance when it comes to Israel. My wife and I recently moved to Southern Florida (right near Boca Raton), we had been snowbirds for three years prior. We recently a small reform synagogue, it is seniors only with less than 100 members. There is a monthly lunch & learn program where they pick a topic, sometimes it is current event, sometimes it is more of local interest. Two weeks ago it was the situation in Israel. There were 26 people there, and the general feeling towards all of the inhabitants of Gaza, outside of my wife and I was, “kill them all, let God sort them out”.
Israel can do no wrong, all the media is and always has been against Israel. The protests against Israel are anti-semitic, the people don’t care about the Palestinians, they just hate the Jews. These people can justify any behavior on the part of Israel, and they will make stuff up to support their feelings. For example, several people posited that there was an easy path to Israeli citizenship for anyone in Gaza and the West Bank, all they have to do is basically pledge allegiance to Israel (there was a congregant who moved from Israel a year ago and he eventually said that was not even remotely realistic).
It was depressing, and eventually I just stopped engaging anyone because there is no point. They don’t see settlements as an issue, they consider the existence of the Palestinians living there as the problem.
I have seen this with my wife’s relatives to an even worse degree. To them the Palestinians don’t exist at all, and I’m 100% sure they would support expelling them from the country.
My guess is that six months from now Israel will go back to business as usual, expanding settlements while the US says please don’t, oh, by the way, here’s your check for $4 billion (which we know you would never use for settlemnets).
Harrison Wesley
@Geminid: But he can be both bribed and flattered.
Nukular Biskits
Finally had a chance to watch the video.
I’m not sure I entirely agree with his assessment that the US has been trying to deprioritize the ME for successive administrations. Ditto for such deprioritization being a (the?) means to peace there either.
Did I miss something?
lowtechcyclist
@SenyorDave:
In all the reporting and commentary about Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank I’ve read in the past five weeks, you’re the first person other than myself that’s mentioned this big chunk of aid we give them on an ongoing basis.
You’d think it would be relevant, that we have this bit of leverage. If we want Israel to act in a certain way, putting a little hiccup in the money pipeline would be a good first step.
piratedan
Beau often offers thoughtful commentary on domestic issues, don’t always agree with his takes yet, he’s at least a starting point for reasoned discussion even as a point of disagreement. He’s out of his depth here, but for most issues, he is on the side of the good guys.
WaterGirl
@Tom Levenson: Thanks for the heads up. You can also reach me by email.
Geminid
@Harrison Wesley: Yes, Trump can be bribed, but will he stay bribed? He is also quite possibly in Putin’s pocket, which would give Israel and Saudi Arabia pause if true and I think both countries know the truth of the matter.
And Trump is basically an Isolationist, and would end all our foreign commitments if he could.
Geminid
@lowtechcyclist: I’ve seen people here raise the subject of US aid to Israel often.
brantl
@Tom Levenson: I don’t think that Netandipshit has made any honest efforts,
topclimber
@CaseyL: Go Spider!
Geminid
@Nukular Biskits: The Biden administration has tried to deprioritize the Middle East. As we see now, that hasn’t worked out. I don’t think this was seen as an attempt to achieve a settlement of the Israeli/Palestinian problem, though. We seemed to have treated this as a problem to be managed, not solved.
CaseyL
@SenyorDave: I’m Jewish, in my late 60s. From childhood through my 50s, I grew up a Zionist – and, it need not be said, ant-Arab. (Not merely as a Jew, but as a woman, Arab culture repels me.) I know there is now an alternate version of the history leading up to Israel’s founding; it isn’t what I was taught, or what I learned from contemporaneous history, and I’ll leave it at that.
It took a lot for me to decide Israel wasn’t worth my support – but my main quarrel was with Israel’s methods for dealing with Palestinians, which is despotic and cruel. I feel that way about any minority being mistreated by an occupying power; it didn’t mean I was specifically sympathetic to Palestinians. I was also enraged by the Israeli government deciding it loved Republicans. I hated that Israel was becoming that which it was a symbol of AGAINST.
I hoped for a 2-state solution, with the proviso that Israel maintain robust defenses, and be ready to retaliate once the Palestinian state attacked it – something I was sure would happen, sooner rather than later.
Seeing how swiftly and eagerly anti-Zionism has become overtly anti-Semitic around the world isn’t helping me try to think fairly and dispassionately about what’s happening over there. (Greta Thunberg has apparently used a climate change protest to shout some anti-Israeli slogans, which is frankly insane if climate change is her ostensible biggest issue).
Harrison Wesley
@Geminid: I think Israel is trying to work out a balance with interactions with Russia (which seems very sensible to me). The Saudis and Russia have gotten pretty chummy as members of OPEC+, although that’s a relationship that could change.
Timill
@frosty: MLB: The current Orioles were originally the Milwaukee Brewers, and later the St Louis Browns.
The original Orioles moved to New York as the Highlanders and are now the Yankees.
NFL: the Ravens were originally the Cleveland Browns, but the NFL considers then a new franchise and the replacement Browns have the old history.
All from memory.
Barbara
@Brachiator: Re: Pakistan. My husband keeps reminding me of this situation and asking where the outrage is: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/06/pakistan-undocumented-afghanistan-refugee-expel-migrants/
Sorry for the paywall. You can search for Pakistan refugee crisis and find other sources.
piratedan
@Geminid: I do recall that with the Trump years, the State Department was pretty much hollowed out. Not to mention that one of our “lynchpin” allies has gone proto-fascist (let’s face it, that is what Netanyahu actually is) who has unabashedly propped up a terrorist organization in an occupied zone in order to justify his own positions.
I understand that it would be nice if more attention could be paid here, but with Iran, North Korea, Russia and China and now even the events in Brasil and India…. there’s a lot of crap going on (same as it ever was).
Ohio Mom
@SenyorDave: And this is why I no longer belong to a synagogue. Yes, I would like a friendly community to belong to but I would most likely be repulsed by how my new acquaintances talked about Israel.
It is also the basis of my belief that way in the future, the organized Jewish community’s obsession with Israel, its insistence that Israel can do no wrong, will be identified as the main cause of American liberal Judaism’s collapse.
There are so many of us who want community and a spiritual experience but at the same time, we don’t want to belong to the Israel auxiliary committee. So we step away, taking our enthusiasm, energies and funding elsewhere.
frosty
@Timill: Correct. For the quiz I go from the most recent: they were both the Browns. You’re right about the Yankees.
Baltimore is honked off that they didn’t get the same deal as Cleveland. Why are Unitas’s trophies in Indy?
Grr
ETA Apologies for attemped thread hijacking. :-)
Harrison Wesley
@Ohio Mom: And there’s a mirror image of anti-semites who use “Jew” and “Zionist” interchangeably. They think it’s a cunning plan that hides their anti-semitism. It doesn’t. Although they may sincerely believe that “Christian” and “Christian nationalist” are the same thing.
Starfish
@SenyorDave: I don’t think that the Florida Jewish community is reflective of the entire American Jewish community, a little bit like the Florida Hispanic community is not reflective of the entire American Hispanic community.
Baud
You know who else doesn’t have friends?
This guy. 👈
Nukular Biskits
@Geminid:
Definitely agree with that one. Having said that, I’m not sure that is a problem that can be “solved”, at least in the traditional sense.
zhena gogolia
@Baud: You have us!
grubert
Listen to Beau frequently. It’s pretty clear who he’s targeting: fellow “good ol boys” seeking a different view then what they get from the right wing media.
And he’s consistent in that, every video about 2/3rd of the way through he starts repeating himself to make the point stick.
So if you’re the type who pays attention, you can skip the recap :)
sab
@Geminid: You follow it more closely than me. I hope you are right.
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
Aww. I’ve always classified you all as interests.
Starfish
@Baud: You haven’t tried to bribe us by giving us weapons or cryptocurrency, yet.
grubert
Not quite sure why he chose the “Fifth Column” frame. Anyone know?
Harrison Wesley
@Starfish: Frankly, I’d rather have cash.
Geminid
@Nukular Biskits: I actually think this problem could be solved, but not until toward the end of the decade. Minds have to be changed.
The normalization of relations between Arab countries and Israel might contribute to that. I saw an interesting poll of Arab attitudes towards normalization. Arabs panned it generally, with percentage of approval in the low 20s. But despite the bitter complaints by Palestinian leaders about normalization, West Bank Palestinian approval was in the 40s.
New Deal democrat
@SenyorDave:
“The only good Indian is a dead Indian.”
A long time ago, as soon as I figured out that Israelis and Palestinians was Cowboys and Indians, the scales dropped from my eyes.
Chris
@Chetan Murthy:
Thank you.
Israel has always been the number one contradiction to the Realist types who believe things like “nations have no friends, only interests.”
sab
Sirhan Sirhan certainly made a statement, but he absolutely did not help his peoples’ cause. Cost them a very important generation of negotiations. Cost thousand of Palestininians lives
ETA Everyone thinking about guns as a solution really really needs to think about unintended consequences.
Bill Arnold
@CaseyL:
One of the big problems is that pro and anti Israel propaganda has been dueling for 70+ years, as you state, and the arguments for the players are sophisticated, as arguments for convincing people and inflaming emotions.
Naive people cannot generally survive even a week of immersion in one side’s propaganda, if there is no concurrent exposure to pushback. I suspect that that happened to Greta.
The global-heating-denialists are pretty basic in comparison, and in obvious conflict with science, including observations. Those types use basic methods amplifying doubt, akin to the propaganda used to deny the hazards of tobacco smoking.
Harrison Wesley
@New Deal democrat: So instead of ‘West Texas Cowboy’ one could substitute ‘West Bank Israeli?’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DR3Q6vBE42s
Nukular Biskits
@Geminid:
That would seem to indicate a disconnect between the masses and their political leadership, something Beau touches on.
As for a “solution”, I wish I was as optimistic as you. This is an oversimplification, to be sure, which doesn’t take into account the fractured nature of the Israeli political system, but if Israeli citizens were in favor of, say, a 2-state solution, Netanyahu wouldn’t have been elected dogcatcher much less prime minister. And that doesn’t even address the radical elements in the Arab world.
Chris
@Dangerman:
To be fair to yourself, Ukraine is probably the most morally straightforward conflict we’ve been involved in since WWII. (Heck, arguably even more, since it doesn’t involve us propping up anything as grotesque as Stalin’s USSR or the British Empire). Whereas the Middle East for as long as we’ve been involved has been a shit-show with no good guys.
sab
@sab: At this point there are not good guys and bad guys. Or there are, but only by activity, not by ethnicity.There are just multiple generations of different people living in the same country. Three generations in it is every one of them’s country.
sab
@sab: Does anyone besides Hamas leadership think what is happening in Gaza is good for Gazans?
wjca
I very much doubt that Hamas thinks it is good for Gazans either. What they think is that it is a) good for Hamas, and b) bad for Israel. And they simply Do Not Care about anything else. Including what is good for Gazans.
Geminid
@Nukular Biskits: The suicide bombing campaign during the Second Intfitada knocked the props from under the Israeli peace movement. “Peace party” Meretz had 12 MKs in 2000 but their support was cut in half after the suicide bombings that killed 670 Israelis and injured hundreds more. Now Meretz is out of the Knesset altogether.
The rest of the “Zionist” party politicians are pretty much “hawks.” But some, like former IDF intelligence chief Amos Yadlin are “security hawks but political doves,” as he put it in a recent interview for Politico Magazine. Yadlin still believes in a two-state solution, but only if the Palestinian state is unarmed: “We’ve seen what they want to do to us,” Yadlin explains.
I would recommend the Yadlin interview to anyone interested in this conflict. It covers a lot of ground, but Yadlin’s assessment of Israel’s war aims was sobering. He is well connected to the nation’s security establishment, and he said the goal is to end Hamas’s 17-year rule of Gaza. I could not confidently say whether or not they can do this, but they are going to try.
kalakal
From watching this it seems that he views the ME (Middle East) in much the same way the 19th Century British Empire viewed Europe with their Balance of Power policy which makes the Palmerston quote in the title more apt. Instead of Germany , France, and Russia he has Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. I hope his views, like Palmerston’s, are a hell of a lot more nuanced than he has put forward here.
A few flaws, there are far more players than 3 here. both locally and internationally. eg Egypt, Turkiye, Europe. There is no monolithic ‘Arab World’, the old diplomatic joke is that the Arab world is divided into 2, countries with lots of people and little oil and counties with lots of oil and few people. The israeli government is using the ultimate power of a client state on the US by saying ‘support us or we collapse’ as was done to US by Vietnam and numerous South American regimes. He has absolutely no idea what the various populations of the ME think, nor do I. What there is not is a burning desire on anyone’s part to actually help the Palestinians themselves, many of whom have effectively been refugees since 1967, in Jordan until Black September in 1971 and in the Lebanon. Most Arab governments would rather they just shut up and went away, and the further they are geographically the less they care except for domestic political reasons.
Ultimately he’s looking for a way to keep the lid on the pressure cooker rather than find a solution to the Israeli/Palestinian tragedy. His desired outcome seems to be that the US can ‘deprioritize the region’ for a few years so it can concentrate on problems elsewhere, unfortunately keeping lids on pressure cookers is an ongoing process, requiring ever increasing force.
The only solution I can see for Israeli and the Palestinians is the 2 state one, how they get there I have no idea. Note that achieving this does not automatically mean there would be harmonious relations between Israel and the ‘Arab World’. Personally I wish both sides had a stable, peaceful homeland.
I don’t support either side and loathe both Bibi and his supporters and Hamas, not just for their recent actions but going back years. My family lived in the region for years and my father had the grim task of performing rescue work at the King David hotel in 1946 when he was in the British Army.* My own personal feeling from that is how I thought of Northern Ireland during ‘the Troubles’, I’d like to think I could have risen above it but have a strong feeling that if I’d grown up there as a Catholic I’d have supported the IRA and as a protestant the UVF
*He was very pro Israel but would spit blood at the mention of Begin
WaterGirl
@grubert: That’s how I feel about Harry Litman and his recaps. I love Harry Litman, but I always bail at that point. “Got it, thanks!” That’s the mind meld message I send to him.
WaterGirl
@Baud: Even me? :: sniff sniff ::
WaterGirl
@Chris:
YES. I am anti-war but I am definitely pro-Ukraine fighting for their right to exist. Ukraine is not a dumb war, or two countries fighting for power or resources. Ukraine is fighting for sovereignty. I am 100% behind that.
WaterGirl
@wjca:
This. Absolutely this.
Sally
@Adam L Silverman: I can’t listen to him. If he talked any slower, obfuscated and mumbled any more, he’d be going backwards. After thirty seconds I feel my brain being drained of rational thought and IQ points.
zhena gogolia
@Baud: lol
Nukular Biskits
@Geminid:
Based on what I’ve read/observed, it sure seems that Netanyahu very badly miscalculated in his tacit “support” (not exactly the right word here) of Hamas.
I have no doubt that the goal now of the Israeli gov’t is to completely eradicate Hamas from the Gaza strip. The problem is how many lives will it cost, on both sides.
That’s not to sound like I support the continued existence of Hamas … I most certainly do not. But it’s not really Hamas that’s bearing the brunt of the casualties. And, to them, that’s a feature, not a bug, IMHO.
Chris
@Ohio Mom:
I think a lot of religious communities either have or will see their liberal components collapse as the liberals take a hard look at the identity politics in it and decide that whatever they get out of the religion isn’t worth that.
Geminid
@Geminid: Another good source for current Israeli attitudes is Dr. Einat Wilf’s twitter account, @EinatWilf. She and the people she retweets could be described as liberal hawks, and are thoroughly fed up with Netanyahu. Many of Wilf’s tweets are in Hebrew but Twitter’s translation feature works fairly well.
As a young woman, Wilf served on Prime Minister Rabin’s team that negotiated the Oslo Accords. She was later elected to the Knesset and served 2 1/2 years. She has written extensively on this subject and her speeches and discussions are linked in her Twitter account. Ms. Wilf has dialogued a lot with Arab supporters of a two-state solution.
lowtechcyclist
@Geminid:
I’ll be honest, I haven’t tried too hard to keep up with the comments in the Israel-Gaza threads; too many of them, and mostly saying things I’ve heard or even said many times. So I’m sure you’re right, the subject has been raised here often.
But AFAICT, it’s been totally absent from the larger discourse. So many pundits, so many tweets, talk about how the U.S. tells Israel they need to do X, and Israel brushes it off and fails to protect West Bank Palestinians from the settlers or Gaza noncombatants from their own assault. And they leave it at that, with the implication that there’s nothing more the U.S. can do.
Geminid
@Nukular Biskits: I think the Israelis know they cannot thoroughly eradicate Hamas from the Gaza Strip. But they’ll settle for killing 90% of the fighters and 99% of the leaders. I think some of the Gulf States want to see this also.
There will have to be some sort of follow-on force; maybe the United Arab Emirates could lead it in conjunction with the Palestinian Authority. That will be a December or January problem, I think. This war is at best halfway over.
TriassicSands
i watched the whole video and finally he mentioned domestic politics. I thought his analysis was quite good, but domestic politics play a significant role in foreign policy. Otherwise, we might still be in Vietnam.
There may be politicians whose top priority is NOT getting reelecting, but if there are, I think they are uncommon or even rare. That is understandable. Domestically, Democrats rely on the “Jewish vote,” which is understandable, but Biden might lose support among at least some American Jews if he were to turn overtly against Israel or even become too negative. That makes U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East even touchier. Trying to find a balance between being sufficiently pro-Israel, which I think we should be, and sufficiently pro-peace is not a balance I believe has been found. And it is difficult. Maybe impossible, given the level of sophistication of most American voters. I’m not speaking abouit American Jews, but about everyone.
Obviously, American Jews are not monolithic and there are plenty who want justice for Palestinians. My one time brother-in-law was a national president of AIPAC, and had his own opinion about Israel and the Palestinians. Many feel differently.
Biden can’t afford to alienate any traditionally Democratic group, but the balance given both foreign policy and domestic policy considerations is difficult. (It took me way too long to get this written because of constant interruptions here in the hospital. Somebody frequently wants to stick me or probe me or whatever…
TriassicSands
@Geminid:
How could anyone know what Trump wants from second to second? There is no such thing as less reliable than Trump. Leaders might, however, realize how stupid Trump and manipulate him be playing a transactional game with him.
You’re right, though, no sensible person would ever want to rely on Trump for anything.
Geminid
@lowtechcyclist: As far as the violent settlers in the West Bank, we just lean on Israel publically and behind the scenes. This may have an effect, because many in the government also want these depradations ended. One little-noticed development 10 days ago was the detention of a ringleader, who was jailed without a trial by the Defense Minister. I have not seen whether or not settler violence has diminished but it should be obvious soon if it has.
In the case of Gaza, we may press Israel to avoid civilian casualties but I think our government agrees with their goal of ending Hamas’s rule in Gaza. We are also telling them that time is not on their side and they will be better off in terms of US support if the don’t drag this out. EU countries are telling Israel this also, and Israel needs their support because they are its biggest trading partners and support Israel diplomatically.
I read that Ireland’s parliament will debate and vote on a motion this week to recall its ambassador from Israel. That could become a trend.
Chris
@Nukular Biskits:
What I still can’t get over is the ludicrous amount of shelteredness that Israel’s treatment of Hamas pre 10/7 shows.
We’ve been told all our lives that every abuse by the Israeli government is tragically necessary because Israel lives every minute on the edge of annihilation, with all the genocidal statements of Hamas being held up as proof of that. And yet they felt completely comfortable not only helping it at the PA’s expense in various ways that you might believe are or aren’t intentional, but pulling a bunch of troops of their only border with Hamas, something you could only do if you were completely serenely confident that there was no chance of an attack.
(The geography was just blatant: they had a choice between more troops to defend them from Hamas and more troops to defend their most egregious anti-Palestinian abuses. And they didn’t choose defending themselves from Hamas).
Nukular Biskits
@Geminid:
I assume you mean something along the lines of a peace-keeping force.
Destroying Hamas (or close to it) would leave a power vacuum in Gaza so the Israelis would do well to have some kind of plan for what happens next (much unlike what happened in Iraq after the US invaded). The problem with that is I recall reading somewhere (here, perhaps?) that the Netanyahu gov’t does NOT want the PLO involved in governing Gaza at all.
How long Palestinians will put up with an outside force governing/ruling them is anyone’s guess but I’d not wager on it being long.
Chris
@TriassicSands:
Right. Israel policy has always been driven primarily by domestic considerations. Can’t even say I blame Biden for this. Elections are razor thin these days and the consequences of every one we lose are catastrophic.
But it does show how limited the Realist view of “nations guided by their own self interest” is.
Neal
@Chetan Murthy:
Very well said. The drones to Russia and the secondary sales to China alone should have merited an invite into the West Wing for a little chat.
Think of the current aid package that is being debated. Money for Ukraine but Israel has neither forcefully (as far as I remember) condemned Russia nor pledged support of Ukraine. If makes for an unusual admixture of interests does it not?
TriassicSands
@Chris:
It’s hard to blame politicians for taking elections into account. We all know that Republicans want to win at any cost, but Biden has a very difficult balancing act to do. Unfortunately, this election is more problematic because Trump will likely be the GOP nominee, and if it isn’t him, it will be some other democracy threatening right winger.
How do you weigh the threat to this country domestically against the situation in the Middle East? There is no easy answer. In fact, there may not be one at all when two considerations, both vital, are not compatible.
Another Scott
I’ve only watched Beau maybe half-a-dozen times. No particular reason, I just don’t watch many videos.
I didn’t find this to be very enlightening.
I don’t think “nations don’t have friends, they have interests” is particularly compelling. Washington warned us in his farewell address:
One can, and many do, distill that down to “no friends, interests”.
It’s reasonably clear we have supported Israel for 2 main reasons – 1) to try to right the historical wrong of the Holocaust, 2) to serve as a Pax Americana outpost to protect a huge fraction of the world’s oil production and proven reserves. (Even if we don’t need the oil because of our own production, Japan and SE Asia and Europe and … being at the mercy of bad actors would have a very bad impact on us.) Those are still good reasons, and aren’t really mentioned in Beau’s essay.
I had a bit of uneasiness in listening to him, as if he wanted to say more but was worried about losing listeners, or as if he wanted to leave things unsaid to let listeners fill in their own views. Dunno. But distilling it down to “we need 2 of the 3 strong states in the region” leaves a lot of questions unanswered and invites listeners to lump them together as equivalent when the countries very much are not.
FWIW.
Thanks for the pointer, WaterGirl.
Cheers,
Scott.
WaterGirl
@TriassicSands: I’m sorry you’re stuck in there and going through this.
Geminid
@Nukular Biskits: Gazans would probably regard a UAE-led peacekeeping force as a vast improvement over being governed and ripped off by Hamas. And it would certainly beat getting bombed every day.
Israel really doesn’t want any foreign troops at all in Gaza, but they may realize that they cannot always get what they want and sometimes have to choose the lesser of two evils. But I think this offensive will have to progress-or regress- another few weeks before there is a ceasefire of any sort, and that is a prerequisite for any possible peacekeeping operation.
Israel’s internal politics may play a factor here. I have seen knowledgeable people say that a vote of no confidence against this government is unlikely and that it could still govern for its allotted 3 more years. Others have their doubts. Personally, I think the PM is walking on thin ice, and may not hold that office far into the new year.
YY_Sima Qian
Iran has to align w/ Russia & the PRC because it has no other options. If Trump had not unilaterally exited the JPCOA, destroying the domestic credibility of the Iranian factions not inimically opposed to the West, & solidifying the position of the hardest of hardliners, I think Iran would have preferred to have more options (as would any country, particularly middle powers w/ regional hegemonic ambitions).
Israel has to align w/ the US, since only the US (not the PRC, not Russia, not the EU) can guarantee its security. Israel will also want to maintain as much freedom of action as possible, & that means not getting into adversarial relationships w/ any great power & maintaining robust trade relationships everywhere (tech being Israel’s competitive advantage), just in case the US stops being reliable. However, Israel’s positions, certainly its position as a regional hegemon, is in jeopardy w/o strong US support. The mystery is why the US stopped exercising its leverage over Israel from the 00s onward, at least wrt its behavior toward the Palestinians, which events have proven remains central to regional stability.
@Chetan Murthy: Israel sold the PRC military tech in the 80s, at a time when Western countries were also selling the PRC military tech. Israel continued to sell military tech to the PRC into the 90s, after the West stopped due to Tiananmen Square, but the US & the West largely turned a blind eye. The US finally strong armed Israel into stopping the sale of military tech to the PRC in the 00s, & Israel somewhat reluctantly complied. (Showing yet again that the US does indeed have enormous leverage over Israel.) Trade in dual-use tech continue to this day, but that applies to the US & the West, as well. It is only in the past couple of year that the US has tried to restrict dual-use tech trade, too, & attempting to coerce the Netherlands, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Israel to do so. These US allies/partners/clients have partially complied, w/ clear reluctance because they rightly conclude surrendering market share in the PRC will be detrimental to their economic interests & the lost revenues will negatively affect the ability of their companies to stay in the technological lead. They have partially complied because the US holds enormous leverage over them.
Saudi Arabia, like most countries in the Global South these days, will pursue a multi-alignment strategy. They will attempt to maintain strong relationships w/ all of the great powers, & will refuse to align w/ one camp against another camp. Only the US can guarantee Saudi Arabia’s security from Iranian encroachment. As members of the oil producing cartel, Saudi interests are aligned to a degree w/ Russia’s. The PRC is Saudi Arabia’s largest customer, & Chinese tech offers the most viable path for MBS’s ambitions of evolving the kingdom beyond that of a petrol state.
The great powers’ interests in the ME are also not zero sum. Except Russia, who is only interested in setting fires & creating chaos. The PRC facilitated rapprochement between Saudi Arabia & Iran helps to stabilize the region, which aligns w/ US interest. The Biden Administration ultimately came to this conclusion, despite taking pot shots when the agreement was initially reached, & despite parts of the FP “Blob” continuing to see it as undermining US’ dominance in the region. The Sunni Arab-Israeli éntente that the US has been trying to engineer does not threaten PRC interests either, will also push Iran further toward the PRC. That hasn’t stopped the PRC FM from taking pot shots at the US efforts, either.
If the US can view the region as more than a yet another arena for geopolitical competition, develop a realistic understanding of the different degrees of leverage (including the limits of that leverage) it has over regional players, & come to terms w/ the desires & motivations of the regional players, then I don’t think arriving at a policy that serves US interests & promote regional stability is necessarily that hard. It is precisely because the US FP “Blob” tends to view things as zero sum that the US feels it is walking a tightrope.
Sally
Thank you Watergirl, for opening this topic. This has been a wonderful thread. The comments have been informative, clear and rational, calm and respectful. It is all very thought provoking, and I am very grateful to everyone who has contributed. For many decades I felt the ME issues/problems have been intractable. Maybe that is just due to my ignorance. But they are problems that do need to be solved in some way because these are people, on all sides, who are suffering, who have suffered for decades and deserve better lives. It is ironic that the anti semite displays we are seeing around the world at the moment justify the establishment of Israel and the jewish people’s need for a homeland, to which they can flee.
I listened earlier to Hillary Clinton’s piece and she stated that Arafat/PLA unreasonably rejected the peace deal offered in 2000. I have read elsewhere that deal was unfair to the Palestinians. I don’t know. Probably the fair deal is one rejected by both! Maybe the only way to resolve the disputes is to impose a plan on both parties by outsiders. And that is not going to happen. So, it goes on … and on, and on, with more people living in misery, and dying in misery.
Nukular Biskits
@Geminid:
Based on what I’ve read, agreed w/ respect to how the average Palestinian viewed Hamas as a governing authority. They would consider just about anyone else an improvement.
Another Scott
@Nukular Biskits: Bibi and company think that they can dictate Gaza’s future.
JPost.com:
I continue to believe that Bibi has no interest in anything that results in him having less power (and risking jail), so I expect this war to last a long time. It’s not in Hamas’s interest for it to end anytime soon, either (not as pressure on Israel continues to build). And Bibi’s partners continue to be Greater Israel maximalists, so there will be calls to occupy Gaza “not permanently”, introduce settlements, and all the rest, all over again.
They’re making a big mistake in fighting the war this way – the way Hamas has explicitly said they hope Israel will fight them. But for Bibi and the maximalists, every problem is a nail to be smashed down.
Peace and comfort to the innocents.
Cheers,
Scott.
soapdish
I’m going to correct this here:
*Governments* don’t have friends, they have interests.
Chris
@Another Scott:
I’ve said repeatedly that the Israeli government needs to remove Bibi before proceeding with the war, not later – if they don’t, he’ll simply undertake every aspect of the war in terms of how it affects his own political benefit, with ruinous results for both the war and Israeli politics.
So naturally, it’s not happening.
TriassicSands
@WaterGirl:
Thank you. However, the care here is exemplary. All the nurses and doctors are great. As always, the pharmacy (in hospitals) can’t deliver medications as reliably as I can take them at home, but that isn’t surprising, since nurses deliver the meds and they have more than one patient and can be stuck doing one thing that causes delays in other patients getting their medications. To summarize: there can be a delay in getting a nurse to the room; the nurse has to contact the busy pharmacy — delay; the pharmacy has to deliver the meds — delay; and finally the nurse has to deliver the medication and there can always be a delay here too.
The “system” is the real and very big problem. There are countless “rules” that have nothing to do with patient well-being. And, of course, when insurance gets involved things get really get screwed up.
I take one pill that costs $428 each. It is vitally important that I get it every day. My supply came from outside the normal formulary, so it doesn’t fit in like other medications. I got it the first day and then not the second day. That is not good at all. I made it known to my nurses that I needed to get it, but the wheels can turn slowly and I didn’t get it until the following day. On the one hand, there was no excuse for this — the medication is actually in my room, but the order for me to get it disappeared, so they wouldn’t let me have it. I finally got through to them and got it again the next day. But really not good. Continuity is critical.
I don’t know when I’ll get out. Monday, I should have a tunneled line inserted for long term IV use. It will replace the PICC line I have in my upper arm, which, ideally, is good for a month, but could last longer.
Compared with the other hospitals I’ve been in recently — very bad — the University of Washington Medical Center is…well, there’s no comparison.
Another Scott
DW.com:
Inshallah.
Cheers,
Scott.
wrog
So, … last I checked, Egypt is the one with the largest army. … admittedly somewhat Out of It since Camp David, but it’s a fair bet they have opinions (and they’re probably the most affected given that they’re the only other country that has an Actual Border with Gaza…)
O. Felix Culpa
So, a FPer with no expertise on a complex, consequential, and volatile subject bases a post on a YouTube from someone with no expertise on that complex, consequential, and volatile subject. Irresponsible.
Another Scott
@O. Felix Culpa: Disagree.
It was a conversation starter.
We’re in a really, really bad place if only “experts” are able to express an opinion on something. Like it or not, non-“experts” decide on the direction of the country via who they vote (or don’t vote) for. Their thoughts and opinions matter.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
O. Felix Culpa
@Another Scott:
Respectfully disagree. Supposedly we liberals care about expertise on things that matter. So, a conversation-starter on a complex, consequential topic should start from a basis of knowledge, either from the FPer or from the quoted material (or both). Sitcoms, for example, are entertaining, but not particularly complex or consequential, so no expertise is required. By contrast, the Middle East is an exemplar of complex and consequential, and therefore demands a foundation of knowledge from which to launch a discussion. Otherwise we run the risk of merely pooling mutual ignorance on something that is literally a matter of life and death.
Beau is just a rando who has developed a following, with no discernable training in foreign policy or the Middle East (or anything else, for that matter). Why draw on a know-nothing for such an important issue when knowledgeable sources are out there and findable? After that, it’s up to the commenters to weigh in and we can get on with opining as usual. But I hold fast to the view that expertise matters on topics like this, and if the FPer is not an expert themselves (which is fine), then they should draw on people who are.
grubert
@Another Scott: absolutely.
grubert
@Adam L Silverman:
– Spent some time trying to verify that online.
I can find a few things, a YouTube video from mystery someone, a government doc with that name listed..
Thing is, I don’t see “Justin Eric King” specifically being tied to this “Beau” guy anywhere authoritative. I see “Justin King” being his admitted name, and it’s not a very unique name.
The nature of what I did see online could well be smear campaign..
For myself, even if this *is* the same guy, I don’t know that it matters to me. I’m pretty immune to misleading propaganda, and if anything this Beau is too defensive and mysterious about everything and seldom has anything unusual to say.
The phrase “human trafficing” doesn’t scare me as I know it’s one of those charges that can be blown out of proportion if a prosecutor wishes to. ( which is NOT the same as saying that any actual cases aren’t serious.. )
grubert
@Adam L Silverman: – That government doc you link only has a name.
Anyway, this seems to be at least “a” source for this “what appears to be a smear until better shown,” a PDF of what seems to me to be fairly incoherent powerpoint notes on “Network Contagion,” which itself seems really weird.
I’m not a “big Beau fan” or anything, but I’ve listened to him a fair amount and he really doesn’t display any discernible agenda other then to bore you along the way to making some small point, possibly an original point but mostly not and certainly nothing radical.
So I wonder why anyone would even bother smearing him.. and how a guy who supposedly has a “nefarious evil past” could reinvent himself as such an anodyne commenter.
Just not buying it.
https://networkcontagion.us/wp-content/uploads/a-case-study-in-redirection.pdf
grubert
that’s why I wondered about the “Fifth Column” and all that..
“Beau man, you need to ramp up your radical mojo to call yourself a fifth columnist.. cause this cautious moderate message stuff just ain’t cutting it. “