Ukrainians! 

And all our friends and allies!

De facto allies. Today, here in Kyiv, in the heart of our country, we are taking a decisive step for the security of the entire community of free nations.

We see who threatens us. Who is ready to kill and maim. Who in order to expand his zone of control does not stop at any savagery.

On February 24, the first full-scale attack on Ukraine was carried out. The first!

Russia would not have stopped at our borders if we had not stopped it. Other states would have been under attack. The Baltic countries, Poland, Moldova and Georgia, Kazakhstan…

Russia claimed to subjugate various nations of Europe and Asia. Claimed six months ago. This criminal ambition is breaking down in Ukraine. It was broken down in the suburbs of Kyiv and Chernihiv. In “Azovstal”. In the Sumy region and Kharkiv region. On Zmiinyi Island. It will be broken down in Donbas and in the south of Ukraine when we liberate them. Definitely – in Crimea, in the free Ukrainian Crimea.

The entire territory of our country will be liberated from this enemy – the enemy not only of Ukraine, but also of life itself, humanity, law and truth.

Russia already knows this. It feels our power. It sees that it is here, in Ukraine, that we prove the strength of our values. And that is why it is in a hurry. Organizes this farce with the attempted annexation. Tries to steal something that does not belong to it. Wants to rewrite history and redraw borders with murders, torture, blackmail and lies.

Ukraine will not allow that.

Today I held a meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. The meeting of the National Security and Defense Council has just ended. We have a decision.

First – it is only the path of strengthening Ukraine and ousting the occupiers from our entire territory that restores peace. We will complete this path.

Second – Ukraine was and remains a leader in negotiation efforts. It was our state that always offered Russia to reach an agreement on coexistence on equal, honest, decent and fair terms. It is obvious that this is impossible with this Russian president. He does not know what dignity and honesty are. Therefore, we are ready for a dialogue with Russia, but already with another president of Russia.

And third – we must de jure record everything we have already achieved de facto. It is in Ukraine that the fate of democracy in the confrontation with tyranny is being decided. It is here, with the firmness of our state borders, that we can secure the firmness of the borders of all European states. We can guarantee that no one else will dare to bring war back to our continent.

It is here, in Ukraine, that the values of our Euro-Atlantic community have obtained real vital energy. The strength of the nation that fights for freedom, and the strength of the nations that help in this fight.

We are de facto allies. This has already been achieved. De facto, we have already completed our path to NATO. De facto, we have already proven interoperability with the Alliance’s standards, they are real for Ukraine – real on the battlefield and in all aspects of our interaction.

We trust each other, we help each other and we protect each other. This is what the Alliance is. De facto.

Today, Ukraine is applying to make it de jure. Under a procedure consistent with our significance for the protection of our entire community. Under an accelerated procedure.

We know it’s possible. We have seen Finland and Sweden start accession to the Alliance this year without a Membership Action Plan.

This is fair. This is also fair for Ukraine. This is the consolidation at the level of the treaty of what has already been achieved in life and what are our values.

We understand that this requires the consensus of all members of the Alliance. We understand that it is necessary to reach such a consensus. And therefore, while this is happening, we offer to implement our proposals regarding security guarantees for Ukraine and all of Europe in accordance with the Kyiv Security Compact, which was developed and presented to our partners.

Security has no alternatives. But determination is needed to guarantee it.

We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine’s application for accelerated accession to NATO.

Today, the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine adopted a decision to impose sanctions on significant individuals and legal entities of Russia who did not have the courage to speak out in defense of humanity and international law, or who in one way or another are involved in aggressive steps against Ukraine and the community of democratic nations.

And at the same time, I am addressing the people’s deputies of Ukraine: at the next session of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, a draft law on the nationalization of all Russian assets will be considered, which should significantly simplify this procedure. Please endorse this bill without delay.

We are completing the dismantling of Russian influence on Ukraine, Europe and the world.

Glory to Ukraine!

I understand why the Ukrainian leadership decided to do this now, but I also know that it is going to be symbolic on their part. I also know, in fact I feared it was going to happen and then it did, that the US and the NATO member state messaging on this is going to play right into Putin’s hands. CNBC has the details on Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs (APNSA) Jake Sullivan’s response (emphasis mine):

The White House signaled clearly that it will not support Ukraine’s request to fast track its application for membership in NATO, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskky had signed earlier in the day.

Just hours after Zelenskyy announced what he called Ukraine’s “decisive step” towards joining the alliance, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Ukraine’s application to NATO “should be taken up at a different time.”

“Our view is that the best way for us to support Ukraine is through practical on the ground support in Ukraine” Sullivan told reporters at the White House.

The remarks are not a new position for the Biden administration.

Sullivan’s statement comes as Sweden and Finland at on the verge of being admitted to NATO. Hungary and Turkey have yet to sign-off.

I understand the Biden administration’s strategic calculus. The second highlighted section is pitch perfect, but given that I’m sure the Ukrainians gave the Biden administration a heads up this was coming, there had to be better phrasing that could have been used to make the first point. Because the Kremlin is going to be all over “should be taken up at a different time.”

I think, and I’ve written this here before, that I think the Biden administration has done a very good job overall in regards to aiding Ukraine. Even when I’ve been frustrated that it hasn’t always moved at a faster pace. But something I’ve observed over the years as a national security professional is a very strange phenomenon. Up to the Trump administration national security folks, Republican national security professionals, I’m referring to the the political appointees, have tended to be far more small “l” liberal in their willingness to aggressively use national power. Democratic national security professionals, still referring to the political appointees, have tended to be far more small “c” conservative in their willingness to employ national power. Just a semi-informed observation.

For you acquisitions and logistics junkies – and not only do you know who you are, but based on your comments we do too –  the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisitions and Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Policy held a media roundtable today regarding Ukraine Defense Contract Group. I’m going to copy and past a chunk of the transcript, but not all of it. So if you need a full fix you’ll have to click across.

Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition and Sustainment) LaPlante and Deputy Under Secretary of Defense (Policy) Baker Hold a Media Roundtable on the Recent Meeting of the National Armaments Directors Under the Auspices of the Ukraine Defense Contract Group

Sept. 30, 2022

STAFF: All right, good afternoon, everybody. Today, I’m joined by Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Bill LaPlante and Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Sasha Baker (who will) discuss the recent meeting of national armaments directors under the auspices of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. However, if you have other questions about USAI Tranche Six that came out the other day, they can address those questions. I would ask that you keep your questions within these bounds for today, as we are limited on time and have about 25 or 30 minutes. And also, unless you are asking a question, please keep your phones on mute.

With that, I will turn it over to Dr. LaPlante.

UNDER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE WILLIAM LAPLANTE: Well, hi, everybody. Good afternoon, and happy Friday. Thanks for joining us. It’s great to join you today to talk about the last few days, including the National Armaments Directors meeting in Brussels, which was very successful on Wednesday. I’m happy to answer questions about the session, but also want to highlight a few key takeaways.

For the first time under the auspices of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, we had all of these acquisitions and Defense Industrial Base specialists in the room together. So that was basically the equivalent of myself — “national armaments director” is the term they use — for 45 nations, including the Union — the European Union, as well as NATO. Throughout the day, we heard from nearly 20 of our partners who discussed efforts that they are doing to strengthen and expand their own industrial bases and deal with supply chain issues, all the issues we all are dealing with right now.

The meeting resulted in commitments to stand up smaller working groups among ourselves to continue the conversation, drive actionable progress. These working groups will define multinational strategies to mitigate supply chain constraints, increase production and pursue not just interoperability, but interchangeability. This frank and open dialogue was exactly what we hoped to see as we went into the meeting, and I’m proud of the collective efforts to support Ukraine in the long term. The ability for us to work together across our nation — these are all the nations of the contact group — to solve challenges is inspiring.

With that, I’ll turn it over to Ms. Baker for any opening comments that she has.

DEPUTY UNDER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE SASHA BAKER: Thanks, Bill, and thank you to the members of the press for joining us on the heels of our travel to Brussels. I apologize. I’m joining you remotely today, so if you have any trouble hearing me, please shout and I will try to see what I can do about that.

As Dr. LaPlante outlined, this was the first time that we gathered the armaments directors under the auspices of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, and what I think is important about that is it’s really joining up the policy and the acquisition and the Defense Industrial Base specialists from all of the nations that Bill described to put our collective heads together and tackle some of the challenges that we know we’re facing.

The level of dialogue and unified action among the participants I think really underscores our unwavering global commitment to stand with Ukraine as it defends its sovereignty in the face of Russian aggression, and we were fortunate to have Ukraine’s Deputy Minister Havrylov with us to really kind of give us a first-hand perspective of what they’re facing on the ground.

Russia’s brutal and premeditated invasion of Ukraine is really a fundamental attack on our international rules-based order. Their efforts have not succeeded, and we are committed to ensuring that they will not succeed. As we’ve made clear at basically every level of the Administration, we are committed to strengthening Ukraine’s hand in their fight for sovereignty and in their fight to retain their territorial integrity. So I’m really delighted that our meetings this week were able to advance the ball in strengthening the position of this collective group of Allies and partners who’ve all made the same commitment.

So that’s really, I think, all I’ll say at the top; happy to take questions, but for now, let me hand it back over you, Jessica.

STAFF: Thank you, and just one clarification note.  Everything today is said on the record, attributable by name.

So with that, we’ll go ahead and get started. Lita Baldor, A.P.

Q: Hi. Thank you. Question for either or both of you: What — how much discussion was there about efforts to energize the industrial base? And what concerns are there among countries that they are — as they provide all of these weapons and equipment, that the U.S. and others are reaching the point where you’re — a PDA is not as likely because you’re reaching some risky limits on some equipment and some weapon systems, and you’ll have to turn to a greater effort to energize the industrial base? How much did you hear of that during the conversation, and how big of a concern is that for the U.S.?

DR. LAPLANTE: Yeah, I’ll start, and then maybe Sasha can pick it up, too.

I don’t know that there was a lot of concern about, you know, the supply — the supplies and individual stockpiles or anything like that, not like what sometimes you hear in the press. It was much more about how do we — as we all get our production lines going, and not just going for Ukraine, but also to replenish ourselves in anticipation of the future, what are the — what are the tools and the common signal or ideas that we have between us that we can share with each other, and maybe even cooperate together?

I’ll give you a very specific example: Everybody hears this term from industry called “We need to see the demand signal. We need to see demand signal.” All the countries hear the same thing. We discussed exactly, well, what that — what does that really mean, right? Because we see lots of demand, right? You just have to read the newspaper or just go online and see it. What’s really meant by that is that the industry both in our country and around the world want to know, is there a sustainable longer-range plan for these production so that they can invest themselves and put production lines together that will be enduring, and not that this will be something which has traditionally been feast or famine; that we go into panic mode, we increase production, and then when the crisis passed, we just go back to minimal production again. So I think that’s what really, the focus is on that.

And then when you follow that discussion you get to things like multiyear contracting ideas, pooling our requirements together so we can maybe have a combined procurement so there’s larger quantity that’s more stable for industrial base, coproduction even, and then also getting our political processes and our dialogue in our own countries and many of democracies on getting the understanding that the way we’ve traditionally done procurement of munitions in peace time where we’ve basically produced the minimal amount, and then we turn it off even below that, we may have to change that, looking at the world ahead, not just the immediate crisis in Ukraine, but a long — longer term. So that’s really where the conversation was.

But I’ll let Ms. Baker also comment.

MS. BAKER: Yeah, I think I completely agree. The only thing I would really add to that is I think what you’re seeing is a recognition amongst the partners and allies that we’ve made a commitment now for the long haul. And so what we need is a mix of different mechanisms for providing assistance to Ukraine. So we have PDA, which is very effective in the short term in terms of addressing urgent requirements that the Ukrainians are conveying to us. But if we want to, you know, work with Ukraine to get them to a NATO standard and get them to a place where they can sustain their military and their defensive abilities over the long term, we have to start that now because we know that some of the contracting timelines and the production timelines, specifically, for some of the equipment that the Ukrainians will need is going to take six, 12, 18 months.

STAFF: OK, thank you. Let’s go to Joe Gould, Defense News.

Q: Hi, thanks so much. Dr. LaPlante, I just – just wanted to ask a follow up on your point. I – how much are you hearing from industry that they don’t have the – you know, the – they don’t have the production capacity right now? And – how much are they dependent on actual contracts to go ahead and put out the kind of equipment that – that Ukraine’s going to need in the long term?

DR. LAPLANTE: Yeah, you – well, you hear different things. It depends. Even within a single industry company, you’ll hear different things, depending on which level of the company you’re talking to.

The real issue is what happens is when you go to industry, a particular company, and say hey, you’re producing this at 1,000 a month – I’m making this up – can you get it to 2,000? And they’ll have to come back, and it’s not an easy question to answer because the answer is always going to be yes, then you – then you say how long is it going to take? Is it going to take a year, year and a half? What’s your critical chokepoint? And then you look and you see – work with them to see if it’s realistic.

The money part of it, the contracting part of it gets all the attention in the press. Contracting, actually, we can be very – we’re very fast with contracting. We push money very quickly out to contractors. That’s kind of a red herring. It’s not the contracting, it’s actually the physically getting the production line either restarted or getting it to be doubled.

And a lot of times, the key items that make these things take a year or two are long lead items, some – something you have to order well ahead. Think of your own life, how long you have to order things.

Second will be obsolescence of parts, key sub-components, like microelectronics, even ball bearings, actuators. And a lot of times, many production lines, they don’t really know off the top of their head which is the key chokepoints. They have to do the analysis.

So it’s really about the companies and their capability, regardless of getting the money – if they got the money today, how quickly they can get to those numbers. And just to remind everybody, this is always the case with production. Production doesn’t just start and stop overnight, it takes time.

And so to – back to Ms. Baker’s point, that’s why we’re having this conversation now, because, you know, this isn’t going to help in the next week, right? The next week, it’s all about the drawdown and the things like that that we’re doing. But this is to show the commitments in the long run.

STAFF: All right, thanks. Let’s go to Jon Harper, DefenseScoop.

Q: Thank you. I was wondering if loitering munitions were a big topic of discussion at this meeting? And, you know, do you have concerns there about production rates or the supply chains?

And then with regard to this latest tranche of USAI aid, there was a mention of counter-UAS systems. Can you provide any more details about that? Are these primarily the VAMPIRE systems that were included in a previous tranche or are these new capabilities?

DR. LAPLANTE: Yeah, I’ll answer the last thing first, which is that we’re – we’re not giving details, at least right now, on which counter-UAS systems were in the tranche yesterday that was announced.

I would just say, on the broader category of loitering munitions, well, you know, there is – broad categories of capabilities – I’ll call them capabilities – that always come up. They typically are long range fires, air defenses – integrated air defenses, including counter-UAS, some types of – of air-to-ground and ground-to-ground. These always come up in these conversations, and then, of course, ways to do C2 and targeting.

So there’s not any one – only one topic that comes up. And again, back to loitering munitions, there’s lots of different options that the U.S. has and other countries have that all have different capability of endurance, different warhead sizes, et cetera.

So I just – there’s lots of options out there. It’s not really a supply chain or industrial base issue.

Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:

And here is their updated map for today:

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Lyman:

LYMAN/FLASH TRAFFIC/ 1940 UTC 30 SEP/ RU forces in the Lyman area are reported to be isolated. UKR reconnaissance elements are said to be in possession of the O-0528 and O-130501 HWYs south of Zarichne. Artillery now covers these roads. pic.twitter.com/77jsnzCvnk

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 30, 2022

And here is The Kyiv Independent‘s Illia Ponomarenko’s take on the situation in Lyman:

The noose has been tightened pic.twitter.com/W11ZH4DqCe

— Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 30, 2022

As I type this the Ukrainian military has encircled the Russians/Russian positions in Lyman. They’ve sealed them up. Unless the Russians are able to break out, and from all reports they are not able, the Ukrainians will now apply pressure from all directions to reduce the Russian military presence in Lyman. Reduce here means kill some, capture others.

So as Putin decided to crack open all seven Russian seals of the apocalypse in his speech earlier today, his military is about to not just lose Lyman, but also have every Russian soldier in Lyman either killed or captured.

BettyC covered Putin’s speech earlier today, so I’m not going to go into a lot of details. However, I think there are several noteworthy things. The first is the aforementioned apocalypticism of Putin’s address. There was very little subtext. He was exceedingly explicit in making the speech overtly religious and framing his re-invasion of Ukraine, as well as his unilateral declaration stealing four illegally Russian occupied Ukrainian oblasts, as an existential war with the US and the rest of “the west”. The west here means NATO and the EU, with perhaps the exception of Hungary; as well as Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. He also amped up the nuclear threats, which is intended to frighten decision-makers in DC and the capitols of our EU and NATO allies into reconsidering their support for Ukraine. And, as we also discussed ahead of the speech today, justified his war against Ukraine by inverting the reality of the ongoing re-invasion. These four oblasts have always been Russia, are now returned to Russia, and therefore Ukraine has invaded Russia and all we’re doing is defending ourself and our people. Finally, it is important to note that the Russian constitution makes it explicit that Russian lands can never be relinquished or negotiated away. Meaning, that as far as the Russians are concerned it won’t matter if Ukraine is able to clear the Russian occupiers out of every last inch of Ukraine, Russia, provided its current constitution is still in force, will never accept that the war is over because it would be illegal to do so. What Putin did today was declare an actual forever war unless Ukraine agrees to give up these four oblasts, plus Crimea to Russia. Which is never going to happen. This too is a ploy to keep Ukraine out of NATO as Putin knows all too well that a prospective NATO member cannot be admitted to the alliance if it is involved in an ongoing territorial dispute.

Here is a great analysis of Putin’s speech by Konstantin Kisin, who used to work as an Enlish-Russian translator:

This is a reproduction of my live Twitter summary/translation of Vladimir Putin’s speech:

I wish every single person in the West would listen to Putin’s speech. Obviously, that won’t happen so let me summarise as a professional translator for 10+ years. He states, as he has done from the outset, what his intentions and complaints are in the plainest terms possible

Setting aside his brief comments on the recent “referendums”, he spends most of his speech discussing the West. His primary complaint isn’t NATO expansion, which gets only a cursory mention. The West is greedy and seeks to enslave and colonise other nations, like Russia.

The West uses the power of finance and technology to enforce its will on other nations. To collect what he calls the “hegemon’s tax”. To this end the West destabilises countries, creates terrorist enclaves and most of all seeks to deprive other countries of sovereignty.

It is this “avarice” and desire to preserve its power that is the reason for the “hybrid war” the collective West is “waging on Russia”. They want us to be a “colony”. They do not want us to be free, they want Russians to be a mob of soulless slaves – direct quote.

The rules-based order the West goes on about is “nonsense”. Who made these rules? Who agreed to them? Russia is an ancient country and civilization and we will not play by these “rigged” rules. The West has no moral authority to challenge the referendums because it has violated the borders of other countries. Western elites are “totalitarian, despotic and apartheidistic” – direct quote. They are racist against Russia and other countries and nations. “Russophobia is racism”. They discriminate by calling themselves the “civilised world”.

They colonised, started the global slave trade, genocided native Americans, pillaged India and Africa, forced China to buy opium through war. We, on the other hand, are proud that we “led” the anti-colonial movement that helped countries develop to reduce poverty and inequality.

They are Russophobic (they hate us) because we didn’t allow our country to be pillaged by creating a strong CENTRALISED (emphasis his) state based on Christianity, Islam, Judaism and Buddhism. They have been trying to destabilise our country since the 17th century in the Times of Trouble. Eventually, they managed to “get their hands on our riches” at the end of the 20th century. They called us friends and partners while pumping out trillions of dollars (his irony game is strong today).

We remember this. We didn’t forget. The West claims to bring freedom and democracy to other countries but it’s the exact opposite of the truth. The unipolar world is anti-democratic by its very nature. It is a lie. They used nuclear weapons, creating a precedent. They flattened German cities without “any military need to do so”. There was no need for this except to scare us and the rest of the world. Korea, Vietnam. To this day they “occupy” Japan, South Korea and Germany and other countries while cynically calling them “allies”.

The West has surveillance over the leaders of these nations who “swallow these insults like the slaves they are”.

He then talks about bioweapon research (haven’t heard about them for a while) and human experiments “including in Ukraine”.

The US rules the world by the power of the fist. Any country which seeks to challenge Western hegemony becomes an enemy. Their neocolonialism is cloaked in lies like “containment” of Russia, China and Iran. The concept of truth has been destroyed with fakes and extreme propaganda (irony game still strong).

You cannot feed your people with printed dollars and social media. You need food and energy. But Western elites have no desire to find a solution to the food and energy crises *they* (emphasis his) created.

They solved the problems at the start of 20c with WW1 and the US established dominance of the world via the dollar as a result of WW2. In the 80s they had another crisis they solved by “plundering our country”. Now they want to solve their problems by “breaking Russia”.

Russia “understands its responsibility to the international community” and will “do everything to cool the heads of these neocolonials who are destined to fail”.

They’re crazy. I want to speak to all Russian citizens, do we want to replace mum and dad with parent 1 and 2?

They invented genders and claim you can “transition”. Do we want this for our children?

We have a different vision.

They have abandoned religion and embraced Satanism – direct quote.

The world is going through a revolutionary transformation. A multipolar world offers nations freedom to develop as they wish and they make up the majority of the world.

We have many like-minded friends in Western countries. We see and appreciate their support. They are forming liberation, anti-colonial movements as we speak – direct quote. These will only grow.

We are fighting for a fair world for our country. The idea of exceptionalism is criminal and we must turn this shameful page. The breaking of the West’s hegemony is INEVITABLE (emphasis his).

There is no going back. We are fighting for our “great (as in big), historic Russia”. Our values are (irony game crescendo): love of our fellow man, compassion and mercy.

Truth is with us, Russia is with us.

---

That’s the end of the speech. As I said from day 1, the purpose of what Putin is doing in Ukraine is to throw the West off its pedestal. This isn’t about NATO or Ukraine, this is the big play to replace the current world order.

If only we knew someone who has been saying this on the front page and the comments of a blog since 2015…

Fiona Hill, an expert on Russia, says that we are already fighting in the Third World War, whether we acknowledge it or not. “We’ve been in this for a long time, and we’ve failed to recognize it,” she said.https://t.co/mwmAgy80HD

— The New Yorker (@NewYorker) September 30, 2022

As well as in several professional publications too.

Eez a puzzlement!

The speech did play well with the other Russian warmongers:

A person comes out of the hall with a quick recap of Putin's speech.

Putin empowered and inspired everyone. pic.twitter.com/x2KjGrm3c3

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 30, 2022

The Ukrainian response was the correct one:

By attempting to annex Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, Putin tries to grab territories he doesn’t even physically control on the ground. Nothing changes for Ukraine: we continue liberating our land and our people, restoring our territorial integrity.

— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) September 30, 2022

As was Britain’s:

The UK will never recognise Russia’s illegal annexations in Ukraine. Russia doesn’t even control some of these oblasts. The truth is Russia is losing in Ukraine and their incompetent Generals are sending thousands to their deaths to please President Putin’s imperialist fantasy.

— Rt. Hon Ben Wallace MP (@BWallaceMP) September 30, 2022

Recent moves by the Kremlin are a sign of desperation as they fail to achieve their objectives in Ukraine.

Russia is seeking to deceive the world to further its territorial ambition.

The UK and our partners are united in condemning these reprehensible acts.#StandWithUkraine

— Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (@FCDOGovUK) September 30, 2022

And the US’s:

In Washington, President Joe Biden had harsh words for Putin. The U.S. and NATO allies, Biden said, “are not going to be intimidated by Putin and his reckless words and threats. He’s not going to scare us and he doesn’t intimidate us.”

“America is fully prepared with our NATO allies to defend every single inch of NATO territory,” Biden said at the White House. “Every single inch. So, Mr. Putin, don’t misunderstand what I’m saying. Every inch.”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Russian President Vladimir Putin’s accusation that the U.S. purposely sabotaged the Nord Stream pipelines was an “absurd allegation.”

“That’s an absurd allegation that we and our allies are responsible,” Blinken told reporters at the State Department alongside his Canadian counterpart. “We will get to the bottom of what happened,” he added.

And just about every other of Ukraine’s ally’s.

As Putin was mongering forever war, his military was actively targeting Ukrainian civilians (again):

Civilian casualties in past 24 hours:
Zaporizhzhia – 25 dead, 74 injured.
Dnipro – 1 dead, 5 injured.
Mykolaiv – 3 dead, 20 injured.
Kharkiv – 7 wounded.
Kherson – 1 dead, 1 injured.
The "second army of the world" is only brave enough to fight unarmed civilians. pic.twitter.com/D6DTazB1V5

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 30, 2022

russia carried out a massive missile attack on civilian vehicles at the check point in the Zaporizhia region. 23 civilians were killed, and over 28 were injured, Head of the Zaporizhia Regional Military Administration reported. pic.twitter.com/cG7G0tpIzB

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 30, 2022

 

That’s enough for today.

Your daily Patron!

Terrorist attacks occur every day in Ukraine. Imagine everyday terrorist attacks… https://t.co/62BoG1ztJo

— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 30, 2022

If today is the day of strange orders, then here is mine 🤭 pic.twitter.com/G1R6lNjrMX

— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 30, 2022

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok featuring more of Olga Wilson’s beautifully tragic art:

@patron__dsns

Наші Янголи…💔😔 Авторка малюнків (Інстаграм): 0lga.art #славаукраїні #пескрим

♬ Where’s My Love (Alternate Version) – SYML

The caption translates as:

Our Angels…💔😔 Author of drawings (Instagram): 0lga.art #SlavaUkraini #KrymtheDog

Open thread!

Ukrainians!

We continue our diplomatic activity to ensure that all partners of Ukraine and the countries of the world understand what new steps towards escalation are being taken by the terrorist state these days.

I spoke today with President of Poland Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister of Italy Mario Draghi. I had a meeting with the President of the National Assembly of France. I am grateful to our partners for clearly condemning the Russian sham referenda, for condemning the attempted annexation of our territory, which the Kremlin is currently preparing.

I am grateful to our Polish brothers for their invaluable defense support and our cooperation for the sake of common security. And today, in a conversation with Andrzej Duda, with Mr. President, we discussed how we can further strengthen our relations.

We also discussed cross-border cooperation. We must do everything so that our nations face no obstacles for economic and any other relations.

I would like to thank Prime Minister Draghi for his principled condemnation of Russia’s steps towards escalation. We exchanged views on further steps in our bilateral relations with Italy and in multilateral relations at the EU level that could give all of us in Europe more protection.

The first ever visit to Ukraine by the President of the National Assembly of France is taking place at a truly historic time. At a time when solidarity between leaders at all levels is critical to the future of a democratic world. I thanked Mrs. President of the National Assembly of France and her fellow parliamentarians for their willingness to continue to help us defend the independence of Ukraine and the freedom of the whole of Europe.

I talked today with the university community and public figures of Switzerland on the basis of the University of Zurich. It is very important that Switzerland and its citizens do not remain neutral, and support our aspiration to live – to live freely and in peace.

Everyone in the world understands well what such an attempted annexation would actually mean. It will not mean what the Kremlin hopes for.

Today I explained this to the peoples of the Caucasus, Siberia, and other indigenous peoples of Russia. And now I repeat for everyone in this country: Russia will not get a new territory of Ukraine. Russia will annex itself to the catastrophe that it has brought to the occupied territory of our country. Russia will equate itself with the so-called “DPR” and “LPR”, and will completely finish off those institutions of normal statehood that still remained in Russia.

The occupier fills the occupied territory of Ukraine with graves, and there are more and more graves on the territory of Russia itself. The occupier sets up torture chambers in the occupied territory – and will fill the entire territory of Russia with torture chambers. This is the only way the Russian police and Russian special services will work now. The law in Russia has been obliterated. And those who brought all these deaths, torture, rape from Russia will take them home.

Everywhere in the seized territory, the occupier destroys any basis for life – economy, social sphere, culture…

Depriving the entire Russian society of a normal economy, a decent life and respect for any human value will be the price for the fact that one person in Russia wants this war to continue.

This can still be stopped. But to stop it, you have to stop that one in Russia who wants war more than life. Your life, citizens of Russia.

Today, the Russian army inflicted another vile attack on civilians in Mykolaiv – a shell exploded near a public transport stop. There are dead, there are wounded… Again shelling of Kharkiv, the Sumy region, fierce shelling in Donbas, in the south of Ukraine.

All this can be stopped in only one way: liberation. And before Russia came, there was normal life everywhere on Ukrainian land. And when Russia leaves, when we oust it, normal life will return. This is the only way. This is the way to our victory.

We cannot know how long it will take to complete this path. But we know that no Russian manipulation and no Russian crime can push us off this path.

Today we managed to release six more of our citizens from Russian captivity. I am thankful to everyone who ensures this work!

Today we have new results on the frontline.

Today we received additional elements of aid from partners.

It will continue to be so.

Tomorrow is another day of our struggle, another day on the path to victory. Will it be special for us? It will be another day that will bring us closer to security and peace, to restoration of our territorial integrity. Because millions of Ukrainians fight and work for this.

A special meeting of the National Security and Defense Council, which I convened, will take place tomorrow. There will be decisions.

We know how to react to any Russian actions.

And finally. This morning I honored the memory of all the victims of the Babyn Yar. Eternal memory to the victims of Nazism! Eternal damnation to those who repeat the crimes of the Nazis!

Glory to Ukraine!

There was a Senior Defense Official/Senior Military Official (SDO/SMO) backgrounder at the Pentagon yesterday. Just as a quick reminder, a Senior Defense Official is either a Senior Executive Service officer or a senior political appointee and a Senior Military Official is a general officer/flag officer or a very senior colonel/captain (O6). Here’s the relevant parts of the transcript:

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Good afternoon. Today I’d like to begin by commenting briefly on recent developments including Russia’s sham referenda in Ukraine and Russia’s ongoing mobilization. Then I’ll turn to today’s security assistance announcements to give you some additional detail on that.

So first, to underscore what President Biden said at the U.N., Russia’s sham referenda and attempt to annex parts of Ukraine is an extremely significant violation of the U.N. charter. The United States will never recognize this territory as anything other than a part of Ukraine.

Russia’s mobilization is yet another sign that Russia is struggling to salvage its illegal and unprovoked occupation of Ukraine. It’s an indication of the profound personnel and manpower problems Russia continues to face.

Russia’s challenges with troop morale, operations and logistics are compounded by Ukraine’s progress in its ongoing counteroffensive. The mobilization indicates that Russia continues to believe that it can win the long game by outlasting the Ukrainians and international support. This is yet another Russian miscalculation.

We are confident that Ukraine will continue to push back on Russian efforts to conquer its territory. The United States along with the international community will continue to support the Ukrainian people in their fight to defend their country. For that end, today the Department of Defense is announcing approximately $1.1 billion in additional security assistance for Ukraine under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative or USAI.

This USAI package underscores the U.S. commitment to supporting Ukraine over the long term. It represents a multiyear investment in critical capabilities to build the enduring strength of Ukraine’s armed forces as it continues to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty in the face of Russian aggression.

Unlike presidential drawdown authority, which DoD has continued and will continue to leverage to deliver equipment to Ukraine from DoD stocks at a historic pace. USAI is an authority under which the United States procures capabilities from industry. This announcement represents the beginning of a contracting process to provide additional priority capabilities to Ukraine in the mid and long term.

So I want to now turn to each of the capabilities and I’ll give you a brief description of the capabilities in this package.

The first is the HIMARS system. And we are providing 18 of what are known as High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, again or HIMARS, and associated ammunition. HIMARS provide a highly effective precision fires capability. We’ve all seen how Ukraine has leveraged this system to push back against Russia’s war of aggression, disruption ammunition depots, supply lines and logistical hubs far behind the front lines.

This package of HIMARS, these 18 HIMARS and associated ammunition will constitute a core component of Ukraine’s fighting force in the future. One that can deter and defend against all threats. The procurement and deliver of these HIMARS systems and associated ammunition will take a few years. Today’s announcement is only the beginning of a procurement process.

Now for most of the other capabilities in this package we expect delivery timelines to be between six and 24 months. So now I’ll go through those capabilities.

First, we’re providing 150 armored Humvees, that stands for High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles. And you’ve seen us provide these before to the Ukrainians and they’re very effective at maintaining and sustaining them. These Humvees can conduct multiple missions, they can mount weapons and radar, they can transport personnel and support other maneuver functions.

We’re also providing 150 tactical vehicles to tow weapons. So these are vehicles that could be used for towing and resupplying artillery or MLRS systems, for instance.

We’re also providing 40 trucks and 80 trailers to transport heavy equipment. These trucks and trailers will be able to transport equipment up to 60 tons.

In addition, we’re providing two radars for unmanned aerial systems. Now these particular radars will enhance Ukraine’s existing unmanned aerial systems by augmenting their surveillance and employment range.

We’re providing 20 multi-mission radars. These are radars that can track a number of airborne objects and threats, including mortar and artillery fire, as well as UAS systems, Unmanned Aerial Systems.

And then we’re also providing a suite of counter unmanned aerial systems. So this suite of counter UAS capabilities will be able to detect, track, and disrupt unmanned aerial systems.

Finally, a number of items including tactical secure communications systems, surveillance systems, optics, explosive ordnance disposal equipment, as well as body armor and field equipment. And as with every package, we provide funding for training, for maintenance and sustainment of this equipment.

So this — with this package it brings the United States to approximately $16.9 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden administration. And since 2014 the United States has committed approximately $19 billion in security assistance.

And if you’re just counting from February 24th since the invasion, it’s $16.2 billion. Through both USAI and through our presidential drawdown authority we will continue to work with Ukraine to meet both its immediate needs and as with this package some longer term security assistance needs.

We are confident that with our allies and partners our unified efforts will help Ukraine to continue to be successful today at even as we build their strength for the future. Thank you.

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Hi, everybody. Good to be back with you on the 217th day of Russians illegal and unprovoked large scale invasion of Ukraine. Right now — and I’ll just give you a quick understanding or a quick view from my perspective on how we’re seeing the battlefield.

So we continue to see the Ukrainians consolidate gains that they’ve attained over the last several week, particularly in Kharkiv where, as you all have reported now for quite some time, the Ukrainians did a pretty amazing number on the Russian forces outside of Kharkiv to the east of Kharkiv.

They — and I’ll talk a bit about the continued gains and net in that portion of the theater. In the past several weeks we’ve seen Russian forces continue to employ precision strikes, hitting critical civilian infrastructure; dams, power generation stations at an increasing rate.

Throughout the conflict we’ve seen a general disregard for civilian infrastructure and the lives with the use of artillery and missile strikes that has not abated. And so as you all have reported, we’ve seen a number of dams, in particular, and power stations here recently.

Around the battlefield then on the ground, in vicinity of Kharkiv, as I mentioned, we’ve seen, again, over the past couple of weeks some really impressive Ukrainian gains and we continue to see them hold the northern border. So along the border with Russia to the north.

And then there have been artillery exchanges in that portion of the battle space to the southeast generally in the vicinity (inaudible). We assess that Russian forces have lost territory and the Ukrainians continue to gain. In fact, are across on the east side of the Oskil River and they continue to press east against the Russians and that portion of the battle space.

A little further south, vicinity Lyman, east of Izyum; we asses that Russian forces are continuing to cede territory there as well to the Ukrainians. And that progress, although not as lightning fast as it was at the beginning of operations in the Kharkiv AOR continue to press forward.

Further south in the Donbas region near Bakhmut we have seen in the last — in fact the last time I talked to you all we were seeing some Russian gains in that portion of the battle space. They were small incremental gains, very similar to how we’ve seen in Severodonetsk a couple of months ago (inaudible) where the Russians were making progress but at heavy expense.

That has not necessarily changed. There are some incremental gains but again, those gains are very small and a pretty expensive price for the Russians. No real adjustment or update for you in Zaporizhzhia.

And then in the vicinity of Kherson, really deliberate and calibrated operations by the Ukrainians as they continue to employ fires and hold the gains that they made about a month ago, about three and a half weeks ago in outside of Kherson and that continues.

In the maritime domain we’re seeing about a half dozen ships that are on the way in the Black Sea, about half of those that are caliber capable. And then in the air we continue to assess that the air space over Ukraine remains contested, which is a big deal.

In training, now up over — upwards of 2,000 Ukrainians that have been trained by us to include about 500 that have been trained on HIMARS.

And just to touch on it because I know folks are going to want to ask, relative to the Nord Stream Pipeline in the Baltic Sea, you know we, as is the case with the rest of the global community continue to monitor the situation and the circumstances. I think we’re as perplexed as anyone else and would — are very interested in knowing how this came about, whether it’s an accident or otherwise.

And I will hold there pending any comments or questions.

STAFF: All right. Let’s go to the phones. Lita Baldor from Associated Press.

QUESTION: Hi, thank you. For (redacted), there’s been — just two things, there’s been a lot of discussions but this was apparent sabotage. Is the — does the U.S. believe that it is — was indeed apparent sabotage and is there any evidence pointing to Russia?

And then a broader question. Have you seen or has the U.S. seen any movement of any of these new Russian conscripts into the battle space? Can you just paint us a picture of Russian force posture changes over the last week or more? Thank you.

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Hi, Lita. So let me answer the first one. I think, you know, the jury is still out. I think think many of our partners, I think, have determined or believed it is sabotage. I’m just — I’m not at the point where I can tell you one way or the other. I think we’re very interested in figuring out what has occurred here and we’ll continue to stay connected to our partners as we proceed.

And the conscripts, and there has been open source reporting on the conscripts. I think the first portions of the — of the mobilized members of Russian society have, in fact, made it into Ukraine in small numbers. There was reporting I saw this morning that was talking about the first death of a mobilized soldier.

I think it was — and I want to say it was social media where the mother was going back and forth on social media about the loss of her son. But again that was social media reporting.

I think just to address the mobilization piece. You know this is — I mean it’s certainly something to be concerned with. You know when you about the mobilization of upwards of 300,000 people, it’s much harder to generate that force than I think folks will say.

You know we certainly have seen protest across the country and concern from the Russian population about the mobilization but just the mechanics of outfitting that size of a force is very difficult. Then when you consider the fact that the majority of the people who would train those individuals, those individuals are in Ukraine.

And you know, we know that their ability to train — in fact, the open source I saw on the individual I was talking about before said that they had reported — when they were mobilized they had reported they received one day of training, and then they had been sent to Ukraine. I just think about the level of training that we put in our own armed forces, and know that that’s far — pretty inadequate.

A bunch of other things on mobilization. I’ll just hold there, Lita.

STAFF: Thanks, Lita. Jen Griffin, Fox News.

Q: Thank you, Todd.

I just want to go back to the issue of the Nord Stream 2, and I understand that the jury is out in terms of sabotage. But can you rule out how deep were the explosions? Does it look like there were submarines involved? Can you rule out that there were divers who placed explosives? Does it look like this is a state actor who was behind this? What do you know at this point?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: The only thing I think I know there, Jen, is that we think the water is between 80 and 100 meters at that location where the pipeline is. Other than that, I don’t know anything more. Those were all interesting things, I just don’t know anything more than the depth of the water at the location that we think there’s a leak.

Q: Can you rule out that the U.S. was involved?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yeah. Absolutely not involved.

Q: Thank you.

STAFF: Thanks, Jen. Tom with National Public Radio.

Q: Yes, could you get back to the conscripts you’re seeing heading into Ukraine? Can you say where they’re heading and a ballpark on the numbers? And also for the Senior Defense Official, you know, could we get an overall breakdown, a fact sheet in how much military material has been sent into Ukraine? 105, 155 rounds, you know, MRAPs, drones, et cetera?

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Sure, Tom. So that’s a very lengthy answer because we’ve provided just so much equipment, and everything that we provide by a presidential drawdown authority goes into Ukraine within days or weeks. So we can certainly give you the fact sheets that we have, and I think I’ll provide those offline, because it would be so extensive. There is one fact…

(CROSSTALK)

Q: Oh, sure — no, no, that’s fine…

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: …that’s actually posted.

Q: …that’s just — if we could at some point…

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yes, OK, good.

Q: …get a fact sheet on that. So we just have a sense of how much stuff is arriving.

And again, for the Senior Military Official, conscripts, numbers, where are they going? Do you have a sense?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yes, so I don’t necessarily have a sense on the numbers that have entered into Ukraine at this point. And in terms of where they’re going, I’m quite honestly, I don’t know that I’ve seen a particular location that they’ve gone as much as they’ve entered Ukraine. My guess is over the course of, you know, the next several weeks we’ll start to have an idea as to where they’re going out.

If you look at where the Russians are having problems, it’s really all over the battle space. So they’ve got a requirement to reinforce — you know, in the north near Bakhmut in the center, as well as down in Kherson. So, a tough problem for the Russians.

Q: And lastly…

(CROSSTALK)

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: And Tom…

Q: I’m sorry, go ahead.

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: So I just wanted to let you know, my PA colleagues just said that they actually did just update on the website our fact sheet. So that should be available to everyone. But if it doesn’t answer your question, feel free to come right back to us.

Q: And just quickly, as far as the conscripts, do you see any more armor going in, or is it just — they’re just dropping them off wherever?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: No, I — you know, we haven’t seen an increase. And that’s part of the problem they’ve got is the Ukrainians have done a pretty good job of destroying Russian equipment over the course of the last seven plus months. And as you would guess, that equipment is in most cases irreplaceable.

I’ve seen — and this is again, open source stuff. I’ve seen them talking about — I’ve seen a report that they’re talking about using T-55 tanks, as an example. You know, the thought that you’d employ a T-55 tank in a fight tells you how bad off you are in terms of your ability to equip people.

STAFF: Thanks, Tom. Lara at Politico.

Q: Hi, thanks so much for doing this. Two questions.

For the Senior Defense Official, I just wanted to ask what is the reason for doing this through USAI? I know we’ve seen you give — transfer HIMARS through PDA previously. So what’s the reason we’re not transferring HIMARS through PDA now? It’s kind of interesting to me that these weapons are going to take two years to get to the battlefield. Does this — do we not have any available in inventory now to give the Ukrainians?

And then secondly, for the Senior Military Official, just on the conscripts. What’s your assessment whether Russia will be able to get to the goal of 300,000 conscripts for this fight?

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: OK, hey there. So I’ll talk about the USAI question. So if we don’t invest today to procure HIMARS for the future, they won’t be there when the Ukrainian Armed Forces need them down the road. And this is a really sizable investment, it’s 18 HIMARS.

If you consider we’ve provided them with 16 to-date via presidential drawdown authority and the allies have provided another 10 equivalent MLRS systems — this is a really sizable investment and it’s intended so that down the road Ukraine will have what it needs for the long haul to deter future threats. But in no way rules out us continuing to invest in their current force with capabilities that are available today and that we can drawdown today from U.S. stocks.

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: And, Lara, on the mobilization piece, you know, so I think the thought is that they — by opening up to mobilization they had the ability to mobilize up to 300,000. I don’t know that they’ll get to 300,000, Russia is a pretty big country.

I think what’s more interesting about it is the fact that they’ve had to do this, quite honestly. I mean, they mobilized twice before this, one was in 1914 and one was in 1941. So if you think about the consequences that they kind of feel that they’re in right now and you compare that to World War I and World War II, that certainly says a lot about what the Ukrainians have been able to do to the Russian Army.

STAFF: Thanks, Lara. Ellee, CBS News.

Q: Thanks. Have you guys seen any indications that the Russians are going to try and mobilize Ukrainians in some of these areas that they’re holding the referendum?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: We haven’t. Now, I think a lot of people are speculating that the referendum, that there are some thoughts behind why a referenda right now? But that speculation, I’d kind of turn you to the Russians, and I’m sure we’ll hear soon.

STAFF: Thanks, Ellee. Felicia, Financial Times.

Q: Thanks so much.

For (SMO), can you speak a bit more about what’s happening in Kherson right now, and maybe just kind of take a step back and say strategically why the south is important heading into winter? And I guess, if also you could just say anything about how winter will affect the fighting?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Sure, Felicia.

I guess, let me start with winter. So we know just because of the way that the terrain and the way that the typically the climate that in the November timeframe things gets tough in terms of mobility just based on pre-freeze. So the – it’s pretty muddy. So I think we’ll see the terrain certainly change and become very difficult for fighting on both sides. Now it doesn’t last, it freezes back up later. So anyways that on the terrain.

Why is the south important? I would tell you to the Ukrainians all of it’s important. I think that’s probably their perspective. Kherson is very important it’s kind of the gateway to Odessa. If you can control Kherson you can certainly prevent folks from getting to Odesa which I think we all believe that the Russians really wanted Odesa. That makes a lot of sense given the strategic aspect associated with the port.

And then the river certainly and the ability to where in the country and how that’s divided. So in terms of the fight, initially and I think we talked about this maybe a month ago. Some really quick gains by the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians have been setting conditions since then from our perspective.

Now the weather’s been pretty lousy for the past couple of weeks. So I think that’s impacted a bunch of folks. We know that Russian morale is very bad in Kherson. The Ukrainians did a pretty good job of isolating the Russians on the western side or the northern side, the right bank, as they call it. And as a result the Ukrainians were able to kind of inflict some damage using their artillery against the Russians.

The morale was bad already and the numbers in terms of percentages were pretty low when they started this. We do believe that the Russians have been able to reinforce across the bridge in some numbers but not to the level that would we think inflict any kind of damage on the Ukrainians.

But I’ll hold there. I probably – I don’t know if I gave you enough there, Felicia, or if I didn’t answer anything.

STAFF: Felicia, thank you.

Q: No, that was helpful.

STAFF: I appreciate it. Thanks, Felicia. Tony with Bloomberg.

Q: Hi there. For the Senior Military Official one quick question. Can you talk a little bit about Ukraine’s tank operations? Their size and scope? Are they using T-80s and T-84s indigenous to their country or have they received NATO types of tanks yet?  Just a little bit on that.

And to the Senior Defense Official, can you – have we committed and actually delivered all 16 HIMARS to date? What is the rough value to Lockheed of building these additional 18? And can you talk a little bit about how fast Raytheon is pulling together these first two NASAMS? I thought they took years to build.

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: OK, I can start with the latter questions and then we’ll turn to Senior Military Official on the tanks. Sixteen HIMARS, yes, those were delivered earlier this year. And in terms of – I don’t have kind of value for production on your question about Lockheed. That’s not information I have available.

In terms of NASAMS it’s important to know that there are two packages here for NASAMS. And the initial NASAMS purchase via USAI tranche three, this was earlier in the summer, it just was two and it was able to be procured quickly because it was – the bulk of it had already been produced. So the later procurement under USAI tranche five will take more time because of the production timelines.

I hope that helps explain it.

Q: It does, yes. And (SMO), sir, can you talk a little bit about the tank conflict?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yes, sure, Tony. I was trying to get after my – I was trying to pull up some data for you and I couldn’t find it. What I would tell you is that we know the Ukrainians have been operating Soviet style tanks. So I’ll leave the series in terms of T-80s or otherwise to the Ukrainians. But we know they’ve been employing them to pretty good effect.

We also know, as you might expect, they’re using a number of tanks that they were able to secure from the Russians. And so most recently in Kharkiv, but also before that at the beginning of the fight back in the March and April timeframe when the Russians were abandoning equipment. And some of that – and some of that equipment was abandoned because it was employed in places where the terrain didn’t support it and they literally had to leave it.

The Ukrainians, as you probably recall, four or five months ago seen some amazing pictures of them hauling tanks out of mud pits with tractors and others. So we know that they’re using that as well. And I’ll kind of leave it that. They are, as you would imagine, they are using an armored force to conduct these operations. And quite honestly doing pretty well.

Q: May I — one quickly, is there any discussion right now of sending them M1A1 tanks the U.S. Army was going to divest over the next couple years?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: I’ve seen that in recent writing. We haven’t looked at any particular provision of M1 tanks.

Q: OK, thank you.

STAFF: Thanks, Tony. Alex, Washington Post. Hey, Alex, you there?

Q: Yes, I’m here, thanks. I was curious if there is going to be another PDA before the end of the fiscal year here in a couple days? Or if not are you leaving anything on the table? And two, when it comes to cold weather, is – are any of the future procurements coming going to be focused on things like cold weather gear and other things that will be unique to a more winter fight?

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Sure, I can tackle both of those. In terms of the cold weather gear, we have provided some of that, I don’t have the numbers handy. But I can also tell you that with our allies there is a considerable effort led by the U.K. to provide a whole range of cold weather gear and equipment so that the Ukrainians will have what they need this winter. That’s something that we’ve discussed in the Ukraine defense contact group meetings and our next meeting is right around the corner. So we’ll continue to push for that there.

In terms of presidential drawdown, it’s important to note this isn’t actually money to be left on the table. This is authority. So it’s authority that enables us to draw from U.S. stock. And we are very closely watching to see whether the U.S. Congress will continue to be so incredibly supportive and generous in providing us with this authority. We have requested an additional $3.6 billion in presidential drawdown authority. And certainly if that is enacted that would enable us to continue along with our drawdown process starting as soon as the very beginning of the fiscal year.

But I want to assure you that we have mechanisms to be able to continue to use the current authority should that be necessary. But again I’m very hopeful because the U.S. Congress has just been so supportive to date. Over.

STAFF: Thank you. Paul, Agence France. Paul, are you there? All right, hearing nothing I’ll move on…

Q: Yeah, I’m here, I’m here. I’m sorry, had problems un-muting. A couple of things, one is, (SMO), you mentioned that the Ukrainians are holding the border near Kharkiv well. Is there any, or is there much cross border shooting? And is that a risk?

My second question is on the nuclear issue. If Russia did use a tactical nuclear weapon in the Ukraine area, does the U.S. feel that it needs to consult with or come to an agreement with NATO on a response?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Let me answer the border one. So, on the border we are seeing some cross border fires between both the Ukrainians and the Russians. Is it concerning? You know, if you’re on the receiving end, it certainly is concerning. But the — we’re not seeing anything where they are firing long-range, they’re shooting their standard artillery systems back and forth, and employing those in a tactical way.

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: And then on the nuclear issue, I think you’ve heard National Security Advisor Sullivan speak about this recently, certainly President Biden has spoken about this. We have clearly warned Moscow that any use of nuclear weapons would result in serious consequences. And you know, we’re not going to get into the specifics of what those specific responses would be.

In terms of allies, we are very much in close consultation with our allies on all matters related to Ukraine, but also certainly on all aspects of the Russian threat. But of course, the United States also has its own prerogative to employ a U.S. option.

STAFF: Thanks, Paul. Phil Stewart, Reuters.

Q: Hey there. Just back to the Nord Stream ruptures. Could you give me any sense of what U.S. military role there might be in investigating what went on here? Any undersea assets, or aviation assets, or anything being used or any U.S. military role whatsoever in investigating this?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: We’re, like a number of other, you know, countries out there with capability that could certainly assist. But we haven’t been asked to do so. And again, there are a lot of countries out there that have underwater capability.

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: And I’ll just say, Phil, that Secretary Austin has had the opportunity to speak with his Danish counterpart today and just offer that if there’s any support that they need, we’re there for them.

STAFF: All right. We’ve got time — we have two minutes left. Let me go to Oren at CNN and we’ll wrap this up.

Q: My question was asked. Thank you, though.

STAFF: No problem at all. Everyone, thank you very much. Let’s have a great rest of the week. Bye-bye.

Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:

And here’s their updated map for today:

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s latest assessments on the situations in Kherson and Lyman:

KHERSON/1315 UTC 29 SEP/ Multiple Partisan- SOF directed precision strikes have hit RU facilities within the urban area of Kherson. A gas pipeline breach and fire is reported at Brylivka, S. of Kherson [off map]. This Op likely the result of a Partisan direct action mission. pic.twitter.com/fsJk2adeZ4

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 29, 2022

LYMAN/2045 UTC 29 SEP/ The O-0528 is the only line of communication & supply for RU units at Lyman. It's now well within the range of UKR artillery. RU units attempting to reinforce or withdraw from Lyman will be interdicted. UKR forces reported to have liberated Shandryholove. pic.twitter.com/kIqlTAC45o

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 29, 2022

And here’s The Kyiv Independent‘s defense correspondent Illia Ponomarenko’s assessment of the situation in Lyman:

A Russian collapse in the Lyman-Yampil sector is almost imminent now.
The pocket is about to be closed off if this is not the case yet.
Russians need to leave before it’s too late, but now it would be hard as Ukraine can target their withdrawal route. pic.twitter.com/H7EZPDHZWe

— Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 29, 2022

Despite the apparently imminent Russian loss of Lyman, Putin is going to go ahead with his delusional announcement tomorrow:

Putin will deliver a speech and meet with the Russian occupation authorities of all four annexed regions

The speech will likely be replete with Novorossiya-inspired rhetoric that highlights the historical destiny of these regions to join Russia

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) September 29, 2022

Expect to hear a lot of bluster and threats. I would be very surprised if he doesn’t announce that Russia is really fighting a defensive war in the newly annexed oblasts and regions that are being illegally occupied. And, as a result Russia is defending itself and its citizens against a genocidally anti-Russian Ukrainian NAZI invasion. Also, keep an ear out for more threats of the use of nuclear weapons against the Ukrainian invaders. This is what happens when you stop promoting propaganda and start believing the propaganda you’ve been promoting.

NEW: Senior Ukrainian military intelligence official says use of Russian nuclear weapons 'is possible. They'll try to stop our offensive activity & destroy our state. It's a threat to other countries: blast of tactical nuclear weapon will impact…the Black Sea region' @itvnews

— Emma Burrows (@EJ_Burrows) September 21, 2022

We have some senatorial bipartisanship on Putin’s illegal occupation and annexation of Ukrainian territory and his threat to use Russian nukes:

I’m on the hill today covering @LindseyGrahamSC and @SenBlumenthal’s efforts to condemn any Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory pic.twitter.com/jo2FGQNu5n

— Lara Seligman (@laraseligman) September 29, 2022

Graham says the use of a nuclear weapon in Ukraine should be seen as an attack on NATO itself

— Lara Seligman (@laraseligman) September 29, 2022

I’m not sure anyone else in NATO sees it that way. With the possible exception of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, but the Biden administration has been clear in both its public and private warnings to the Russian leadership about what using nuclear weapons in Ukraine would lead too.

Speaking of the Baltic states and Finland, now might be a good time to invade:

NEW: Russia has redeployed up to 80 percent of troops from its borders on the Baltic states and Finland to plug losses in Ukraine, officials tell @RobbieGramer & me

European officials said there could be just 6,000 🇷🇺 troops left in Kaliningrad & Balticshttps://t.co/9U7AN3mzXH

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) September 28, 2022

I kid!!!!

A bit more on the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines:

NATO warns of retaliation against Nord Stream's sabotage:

"Any deliberate attack against Allies’ critical infrastructure would be met with a united and determined response"

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) September 29, 2022

The two explosions of Nord Stream 1 & 2 took place just outside of Danish & Swedish territorial waters, that is, on international waters. They were professionally pursued with huge detonations. Talking to experts here in Stockholm, I receive only one answer: Russia.

— Anders Åslund (@anders_aslund) September 28, 2022

The obvious culprit in the Nord Stream explosions appears to be GUGI (Glavnoe Upravlenie Glubokikh Issledovanii) in St. Petersburg, which has mini-subs (known from Soviet submarine incursions into Sweden).

These explosions suggest that Russia is spreading the war, but just to the border of NATO (Denmark) and soon to be NATO (Sweden). This operation spreads fear that other cables and pipelines will be blown up as well. The Norwegian-Polish gas pipeline opened yesterday…

Therefore, NATO now needs to develop a response force to balance Russia’s GUGI, which will be costly. It would be far more effective to send more arms & money to Ukraine. Do that first!

More about Главное управление глубоководных исследований Министерства обороны Российской Федерации Начальник ГУГИ МО РФ, Вице-адмирал Буриличев Алексей Витальевич

The last tweet (machine) translates as:

Main Directorate of Deep Sea Research Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation Head of the GUGI of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Vice Admiral Burilichev Alexey Vitalievich

Well that’s a shame:

Alexei Nagin, commander of the notorious “Wagner group” in Ukraine, nominated hero of russia, was demobilised near Bakhmut by Ukrainian soldiers. #UkraineWins 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/8m7rToSzjj

— Operator Starsky (@StarskyUA) September 29, 2022

As the crest for the 2nd Brigade Combat Team/1st Armored Division, the Iron Brigade, reads: Strike Hard!

Iron horses race towards sunrise. Continuing until the border stops us. pic.twitter.com/2GAZ7eohgy

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 29, 2022

That was the brigade I was the cultural advisor for and deployed to Iraq with.

For those so inclined:

Please feel welcome to donate via PayPal [email protected]

— Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 29, 2022

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

AN-225 "Mriya"
"Mriya" means "dream" in Ukrainian.
It was the largest plane in the world.
And evil people destroyed it…
But we will restore everything because neither Ukraine nor the Ukrainian dream can be destroyed! 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/dMMlPV56XL

— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 29, 2022

Look at this dog, who survived the rocket attack,but is still shocked. In March,an aerial bomb was dropped near my work.The wave threw me to the wall.That was like a thousand whistles and drums in my head.I still haven't come to my senses. In fact,we will never come to our senses https://t.co/qYayRjrcaT

— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 29, 2022

The full three tweet thread that Patron’s official Twitter account is quote tweeting:

That moment when the Russians killed your family and bombed your house. Now this dog is left alone…. pic.twitter.com/eECH2bzqLu

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) September 29, 2022

😞 pic.twitter.com/BDMNeepj6R

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) September 29, 2022

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Знайшли тут свого Патрона?😛 #песпатрон #патрондснс

♬ original sound – Jonathan Martinez

The caption translates as:

Found your Patron?😛 #PatronDog #PatronDSNS

Open thread!

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Our key task now is to coordinate actions with partners in response to sham referenda organized by Russia and all related threats. This is not 2014. Everything is clear for everyone. And there will certainly be actions.

I’ve held a whole series of negotiations today. President of Türkiye Erdoğan, Chancellor of Germany Scholz, Prime Minister of Canada Trudeau, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Truss, Secretary-General of the UN Guterres, President of the European Council Charles Michel.

Thank you all for your clear and unequivocal support. Thank you all for understanding our position. Ukraine cannot and will not put up with any attempts by Russia to seize any part of our land.

I once again thanked President Erdoğan today for his help in freeing our people from Russian captivity. Commanders from Azovstal, who are in Türkiye, will soon be able to see their relatives. We are working on it.

Also, by the way, the implementation of the plan to help each of those recently released from captivity has already begun. They receive priority elements of assistance. First of all, it is medical support – they all need recovery after what they had to go through in captivity. This work is under the control of the Ombudsman, representatives of the Office, intelligence, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Security Service of Ukraine, the Ministry of Health, and the command of the Medical Forces. And we will extend the appropriate measures, which are being worked out in detail now, to all our people whom we free from the captivity of the occupiers.

I will emphasize once again: we remember all our people and try to free each and every one of them from captivity, not a single Ukrainian has been forgotten.

We discussed today with President Erdoğan our further defense cooperation, our response to all the aggressive steps that Russia has already taken and is still preparing to take.

We discussed a wide range of issues with the Chancellor of Germany – political, financial, defense, energy. In the defense topic, I emphasized that we are waiting for an anti-missile defense system from Germany – I’m grateful for the willingness to help with air defense. Other points of defense cooperation were also discussed in detail – there are quite a lot of them, they are clear. Of course, energy issues were touched upon, including the supply of gas to Europe and sabotage at the Nord Stream gas pipeline.

We discussed with Mr. Chancellor the preparation of the new sanctions package of the European Union – together we must make it really powerful, not symbolic. As of today, there is still something to add to the eighth sanctions package.

The conversation with the Prime Minister of Canada was, as always, very specific and concerned primarily how Canada can increase support for Ukraine. Among other things, demining was discussed. Canada has both the appropriate technology and the appropriate humanitarian ambitions.

I invited Prime Minister Trudeau to lead a global effort to clear our land of Russian mines and projectiles. Due to the Russian war, Ukrainian land is one of the most contaminated by mines in the world. And while there are similar examples of large-scale mine contamination around the world, we must do what others have not done: we must set a precedent for rapid and large-scale demining, not leave this problem for decades. I thank Canada for its willingness to help us.

With Mrs. Liz Truss, we discussed the possibilities of Britain in enhancing sanctions on Russia, as well as in increasing defense aid for our country. I am grateful for the principled condemnation of the Russian farce under the guise of a referendum, for the full support and willingness to move with us towards the return of freedom to all our people – in all parts of Ukraine, without any exceptions.

The conversation with the Secretary-General of the UN also concerned sham referenda and Russia’s apparent preparation of the ground for an attempt to annex our territory. These brutal violations of the UN Charter must be punished.

We discussed the implementation of our grain export initiative with Mr. Guterres. We agreed that the initiative should not only be preserved, not only protected from any attempts to disrupt it, but also expanded. Ukraine is ready to significantly increase the export of our agricultural products to the countries that need them and the corresponding interaction with the UN for humanitarian purposes and assistance to such countries as Somalia, Ethiopia, etc.

I have just finished a call with Charles Michel. As always, it was a conversation between real friends. Thank you for your full support in the issue of sham referenda and for your willingness to extend aid to Ukraine. Of course, we also discussed the preparation of new sanctions.

Tomorrow I will continue intensive communication with the leaders.

And today I want to once again thank the United States of America and personally President Biden for the new package of defense support for our country in the amount of more than 1 billion dollars. This is really important.

If someone in Russia thinks they can “get away” with everything they are doing in the occupied territory, if someone in Russia hopes the world will abandon its own values, frightened by another Russian announcement of annexation, they in Russia are wrong. Each subsequent escalating step by the occupier only confirms the fact that the world must act even tougher.

In the evening, I signed another decree awarding our defenders. State awards were awarded to: 71 warriors of the National Guard, 21 employees of the State Emergency Service, 52 border guards. 320 combatants were awarded for their brave and effective actions during the liberation of the districts of the Kharkiv region from the occupation.

As for the situation at the front, everything is clear to us. Therefore, I repeat again… For those who understand only Russian.

If you want to live, run. If you want to live, surrender. If you want to live, fight on your streets for your freedom. Everything was taken from you anyway. Or maybe any of you have oil rigs? Palaces? Vineyards? Maybe yachts? Or some bank? What are you fighting for? The only thing you have is loans, something to eat in the evening and now there’s mobilization. Fight for what’s yours! Stay away from our land, our soul and our culture.

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:

And here is their updated map for today:

Here’s former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s analysis of the successful Ukrainian air defense in Odesa:

ODESA /28 SEP/ UKR radars monitor the sortie of a Russian Su-35 naval strike fighter from Crimea. Detected, the Su-35 is forced to fire its Kh-59 missiles from long range. The missiles are interdicted by UKR air defense, and the Su-35 is forced to withdraw. pic.twitter.com/7ABiYMZSFS

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 28, 2022

That’s what Air Defense is supposed to be doing!

The Ukrainians are still pushing for Lyman!

The possibility of major Russian defeat in the Lyman-Yampil area is now very high pic.twitter.com/wvrXhc1K34

— Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 28, 2022

We have more on the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines:

#BREAKING A suspected Russian sabotage attack on Nord Stream gas pipelines was “probably premeditated and planned” with an explosive device dropped into the sea weeks before it was detonated: The Times pic.twitter.com/bSBGMZoccs

— Guy Elster (@guyelster) September 28, 2022

The BBC has details:

The EU has said leaks in two major gas pipelines from Russia to Europe were caused by sabotage – but stopped short of directly accusing Russia.

European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen said deliberate disruption would meet the “strongest possible response”.

The EU has previously accused Russia of using gas supplies as a weapon against the West over its support for Ukraine.

But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed accusations of sabotage as “predictable, stupid and absurd”.

The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he thought the leaks would “not have a significant impact on Europe’s energy resilience”. Neither pipeline is transporting gas at the moment, although they both contain gas.

Mr Blinken did not directly accuse Russia – but said it would be in “no-one’s interest” if they were caused deliberately.

The Danish Energy Minister, Dan Jorgensen, said the leaks were likely to last for at least a week, until the gas escaping from the pipes runs out. An investigation has been launched.

Mike Fulwood, a senior research fellow at the independent Oxford Institute for Energy Studies told the BBC sabotage was, indeed, the most likely cause of the leaks.

“To rupture an offshore pipeline is a rare occurrence, so three in 18 hours would be a big coincidence,” he said.

If the sabotage was indeed committed by Russia, this was a “bizarre” move, he said, as it had already shut supplies off.

He estimated that repairs could take between three and six months, as the damaged sections would need to be replaced. Similar damage to a different pipeline in the past took nine months.

Seismologists reported underwater blasts before the leaks emerged. Denmark’s Defence Command has released footage of the leaks which shows bubbles – the largest is 1km (0.6 miles) in diameter – at the surface of the Baltic Sea.

“There is no doubt that these were explosions,” said Bjorn Lund of Sweden’s National Seismology Centre.

Here’s the details of the latest US aid package for Ukraine:

Sweeeeeet pic.twitter.com/OmwAF8RxEi

— Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 28, 2022

HIMARS!

GREATEST HITS: @YAmzallagh reports that the US will transfer 18 additional HIMARS batteries with ammunition to UKR. These systems will join the 16 already in front line service. The HIMARS allows UKR to deliver long range precision strikes against high-value Russian targets. https://t.co/7O5Cqvfm8C pic.twitter.com/liWnHO5V93

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 28, 2022

Obligatory:

I Can Give You HIMARS: THE REMIX!

A #NAFO club banger by @cyberfella2077. Ft. @Amb_Ulyanov as DJ Nonsense.

Full screen. Sound on. Bass up.#WeAreNAFO #Fellas https://t.co/9LdZhCz0dR pic.twitter.com/6rdWJx8O5C

— Francis Hunter (@Dr_F_Hunter) July 20, 2022

It is important to remember that the Russians are still holding a very large number of the Azovstal defenders. Including almost all of the female doctors and medics:

Most of the women medics from the #Mariupol military hospital #555 are still in the russian captivity. We can't stop pushing until russia lets all of them free @ICRC @un @UNHumanRights #prisonersvoice @SaveSentsov pic.twitter.com/Ijp6AhmPB5

— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) September 27, 2022

Medic Viktoriya Obidina, a mom of 4yo Alisa, who were at the #Azovstal, was also not released from the russian captivity during the last prisoners exchange. Bring back Viktoriya and all Ukrainians who are russia's hostages home! #prisonersvoice pic.twitter.com/nwdMJ4LOId

— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) September 28, 2022

That’s enough for tonight!

Your daily Patron!

And when is the referendum on the deaccession of a well-known terrorist country from false propaganda?

— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 28, 2022

P.S.there is no "referendum" in the occupied Ukrainian territories. Please – remember this! The only real "referendum" on our territory is held by the Armed Forces of Ukraine – and this is supported by the entire civilized world!

— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 28, 2022

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Уявив собі, що я співак! 🤭🎵 #песпатрон #патрондснс

♬ bounddddddd – 𝔰𝔭𝔢𝔢𝔡 𝔰𝔬𝔫𝔤𝔰😮‍💨

The caption translates as:

 imagined that I was a singer! 🤭🎵 #PatronDog #PatronDSNS

Open thread!

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took part in the meeting of the UN Security Council, convened at the initiative of Ukraine, in a videoconference format and called on the international community to respond decisively to Russia’s violation of international law and order.

During the speech, the Head of State drew the attention of the meeting participants to the fact that Russia already violates the rules of the world, despises the UN Charter, and it is only a matter of time before it destroys this last international institution that can still act.

“I urge you to act now. Anyone in the world can now name hundreds of examples of how Russia violates the international legal order and destroys the body of international law. It constantly provokes escalation and constantly responds to any proposals for talks with new brutality on the battlefield, even greater crises and threats to Ukraine and the world. And these are obvious things,” said the President.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that among the violations committed by Russia are ignoring the IAEA’s call for the immediate de-occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, nuclear blackmail, the announcement of mobilization, which first of all affects the indigenous peoples, the holding of a so-called referendum in the occupied territory of Ukraine, as well as the attempt of annexation of seized Ukrainian territories.

According to the President, there is only one way to stop all this. First of all, a complete isolation of Russia in response to what it is doing is needed.

“A state that is implementing a policy of genocide right now, keeping the world one step away from a radiation disaster, and at the same time threatening nuclear strikes cannot remain a permanent member of the UN Security Council with veto power. Russia must be excluded from all international organizations. If such exclusion is complicated by the procedure, its participation must be suspended,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted.

In addition, he believes new tough global sanctions against the Russian Federation are needed. It is also important to continue supporting Ukraine in the war with Russia.

“It is in Ukraine and in this war that not only our independence is being defended, not only the right to life for our people, but also international law as such. Ukraine must receive all the necessary defense and financial aid so that the aggressor loses,” the Head of State emphasized.

The President stressed that Ukraine must receive clear and legally binding guarantees of collective security – it is the independence of our country that is of such fundamental importance for many elements of global security, so the world needs a corresponding security architecture.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized: “Russia’s recognition of these sham referenda as allegedly normal, implementation of the so-called “Crimean scenario” and another attempt to annex the territory of Ukraine will mean that there is nothing to talk about with this President of Russia. Annexation is the kind of move that pits him alone against the whole of humanity. Such a clear signal is now needed from every country in the world.”

He urged the members of the UN Security Council not to delay the proposed actions, as a clear signal is now needed from every country in the world.

Brig. Gen. Ryder, the DOD Spokesperson, held an on the record briefing today. Transcript with Q&A below:

BRIGADIER GENERAL PAT RYDER: Good afternoon, everybody. A few items to pass along, and then we’ll get right to your questions.

So tomorrow, Secretary Austin will depart to California and Hawaii, and in California, he’ll meet with sailors and Marines at Naval Base Point Loma and Marine Corps Air Station Miramar, respectively. While in Hawaii, he’ll meet with several of our key Indo-Pacific allies, to include his counterparts from the Philippines, Japan and Australia to discuss our shared commitment to preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific. Secretary Austin will also meet with Rear Admiral John Wade, who leads the Joint Task Force Red Hill, to receive an update on the effort to safely and expeditiously defuel the Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage Facility.

In addition, this afternoon, Secretary Austin will welcome His Excellency David Kabua, president of the Republic of Marshall Islands, for a meeting on the U.S.-Marshall Islands strategic and security relationship. The secretary looks forward to the discussion, after which we’ll provide a readout.

Separately, the department continues to watch closely as Florida prepares for the arrival of Hurricane Ian, an extremely dangerous storm that’s expected to bring heavy rain, wind and storm surge to the state’s west coast. As of this morning, the Florida National Guard has more than 3,200 soldiers and airmen on state active duty, with another 1,800-plus in the pipeline. Florida has pre-positioned Guard soldiers, airmen and equipment at bases and armories around the state in preparation for deploying them to areas impacted by the storm. These Guardsmen will provide route clearing, search-and-rescue teams to support flood control and security. Aviation assets like helicopters are also on standby to assist as required.

Additionally, five neighboring states are prepared to make an additional 2,000-plus Guardsmen available, should the need arise. The Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA, is the lead federal agency on this response, and the Department of Defense remains in close communication and coordination with FEMA as Ian’s landfall becomes imminent.

In preparation for the storm, the DOD has approved Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama, Moody Air Force Base, Georgia, Warner Robins Air Force Base, Georgia, and Marine Corps Logistics Base Albany, also in Georgia, as incident support base federal staging areas. For questions concerning individual DOD bases I’d refer you to the individual services, who can provide you with the most up-to-date information about their personnel and their efforts.

Finally, later today, the department will release our latest report on civilian casualties in connection with the United States military operations in 2021. This report is released annually by the department, and this is the fifth year of its release. As you know, the DOD is committed to improving our approach to mitigating and responding to civilian harm, and on August 25th this year, the secretary released the Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Action Plan, which lays out a series of actions DOD will implement to mitigate and respond to civilian harm. The protection of innocent civilians in the conduct of operations remains vital to the ultimate success of our operations, and is a significant strategic and moral imperative. This report will be posted to the defense.gov website today.

And with that, I’m happy to take your questions. We’ll go ahead and start with Lita. Yes, ma’am?

Q: Thanks, Pat. A couple just quick follow-ups. Last week, you said you were going to check back on whether any of either the PDA, USAI — any of the funding associated with Ukraine would expire at the end of this fiscal year. Do you have an answer to that yet? And…

GEN. RYDER: Sure.

Q: I’ll give you, if you can — OK.

GEN. RYDER: So what I would say is as I understand it, so the — the USAI money, as we talked about, is two-year money, so — and that is an appropriation so that — that would not be affected. The PDA money is, as I understand it, an authorization, which means that authorization is good until the end of the fiscal year. I would highlight that it’s not the end of the fiscal year yet, so there’s still time, potentially, to — to employ that authorization. Should we come to the end of the fiscal year, as you know, the administration has asked for supplemental funding, and so essentially what we would look to do is use that new authorization to purchase PDA, should we go into a — a separate fiscal year.

Q: So just a couple other things. And do you know the exact amount that you think will expire? I mean, you’ve got literally just a couple of days.

GEN. RYDER: Yeah.

Q: And then I’ll…

GEN. RYDER: Sure. So right now, we have $2.275 billion until September 30.

Q: And then on Ukraine, two things: Have you seen any change or any movement by Russia to ready their nuclear forces in any way? I know that this is a repetitive question, but just to ask it again. And have you seen any shifts in Russian force posture overall as these annexations votes start to get released? And anything about any more troops coming in, any effort to shore up areas — anything like that?

GEN. RYDER: Sure. So broadly speaking, you know, as — as we’ve said, we obviously take these threats seriously. But at this stage, we’ve not seen anything that would cause us to adjust our own nuclear posture at this time. And as — and as we’ve said previously, our focus continues to remain on supporting Ukraine in their fight and working closely with our allies and partners.

In terms of Russian force posture, broadly speaking, without getting into a detailed operational update, no, no major shifts other than we continue to see, particularly in the Donbas region, the Russians’ attempt to conduct offensive operations in — in that area, with Ukraine successfully holding the line.

Q: I want to go back to the nuke question first. Are you — can you say categorically that the United States has not seen any movement by tactical nuclear Russian military units that would cause alarm?

GEN. RYDER: Yeah, thanks, Tony. So I don’t want to get into intelligence specifically, other than to again just say that we’ve seen nothing that would indicate that we need to change our posture.

Q: Shifting gears to the NASAM — on Sunday, there was a great deal of international confusion about whether the United States had delivered NASAM systems to Ukraine. This is based on a faulty Face The Nation transcript, that they later corrected, but it caused a tither throughout the world. Can you give us a reality check here? When will the first NASAMS actually be delivered? Won’t it take about two years from the August 26th contract date?

GEN. RYDER: So — and I briefed this a couple weeks ago — yep, absolutely — so just to clarify, the U.S. has not delivered NASAMS to Ukraine at this stage. We expect the first two to be delivered within the next two months or so.

Q: Two months?

GEN. RYDER: Two months or so, right. That’ll be from tranche three. And then the remaining six that were part of the USAI are expected to be delivered in the future. I don’t have a date to provide but those will be longer term.

Q: May I ask — because the contract, when it came out in August, said it would be completed by August of 2024, implying two years.

GEN. RYDER: Again, I think there’s — nothing’s changed. I think it’s two different tranches of NASAMS that we’re talking about here. So we can get you the details, but again, the first two are expected to be provided within the next two months or so.

Q: Are they going to come from U.S. stocks, from the…

GEN. RYDER: No, these are the ones produced by industry, as I understand it. OK.

Yes, sir?

Q: On the civilian casualty report, obviously I haven’t seen it, could you give us kind of the broad outlines of that report? I’m assuming the numbers must be relatively low cause there’s not much happening abroad.

But also, I’m wondering if some of the changes that we’ve seen recently on trying to reduce civilian casualties, is that going to be reflected in this report? And how should we view that?

GEN. RYDER: Sure. No, I appreciate the question. What I would ask you to do is download the report, take a look at it. Certainly, again, after this briefing, we can get that to you and then be happy to entertain a more detailed discussion.

Given the fact that — you know, the scope of the work, I don’t want to necessarily provide you with half information here from the podium. So we’ll make sure to get that for you right after this. Thank you.

Let me go to Carla and then I’ll go to Kasim.

Q: Thanks. On Ukraine, concerning the Nord Stream pipeline, there leaking. European officials are saying it was sabotage, pointing to Russia. Ukraine has said it is — it was Russian sabotage. Russia is pointing to the United States. What can the Pentagon say about that? Do you have any evidence that vessels in the Baltic Sea could have been responsible for this?

GEN. RYDER: Yeah, thanks, Carla. Seen the press reporting on this at this point but I don’t have any information on it to provide. We’ll continue to monitor closely obviously. Thank you.

Lara?

Q: Sure. I had two questions.

One, I wanted to get your assessment of the Iranian drones that we have seen. We saw videos out of Ukraine that they’ve hit Odesa, in targeting civilian infrastructure and targeting the Ukrainian Armed Forces. What’s your assessment of the damage that these drones are doing? And can you give us more information about what types of drones that we’re seeing? And do you anticipate any additional deliveries of these sorts of weapons from Iran?

GEN. RYDER: Sure. So we do assess that the Russians now are using the Iranian drones that we’ve talked about in the past — that were delivered to Russia, that we do assess that they are now using them in Ukraine.

In terms of their effectiveness, I don’t want to provide a battle damage assessment here from the podium or get into specific intelligence, other than to say again we’ve seen them employ them.

I – we’ve also seen reports of the Ukrainians shooting down some of these drones. Again, I’m not going to get into specific numbers but we assess that those are credible.

And so I think, again, it’s just indicative of the Russians employing a capability that we know they’ve sought out from Iran and they’re using the way they indicated they would use them, right, for both kinetic attacks and ISR.

But beyond that, at this point I’m really not going to be able to get on to more detail.

Q: Have you see the missiles from North Korea arrive in Russia yet?

GEN. RYDER: So beyond the information we provided before, which is that we have indications that Russia is seeking support from North Korea for ammunition, I’m not going to have anything further at this stage.

OK. Let me jump out to the phones here and then I’ll come back in the room. Let’s go with Heather from USNI.

OK. Let me go back to the room here. Oren?

Q: General, I was just wondering if you could give a bit more detail, you mentioned at the end of Lita’s question, Russian offensive operations, particularly in Donbas. Is that the only place at this point they’re trying to conduct or conducting offensive operations?

Are they having any success there whether it’s a couple of kilometers or none at all? And have their operations been able to affect in any way Ukraine’s counter offensive, disrupt it in some fashion?

GEN. RYDER: So again, recognizing that really the Ukrainians are the right folks to talk in detail, generally speaking what you see is, again, in the Donbas region there, the Russians with elements of the Wagner group attempting to essentially take territory. I think I’ve mentioned previously we’ve seen hundreds of meters, in some cases, but nothing that I would consider significant.

The Ukrainians have, so far, done a good job of holding the line there and repulsing those offensive operations. The way I would characterize the north and the south on the Russian side is essentially defensive at this stage. The Ukrainians continue to make deliberate movement forward.

And so, yes, that’s where I’d leave it. Thank you.
OK, let me go back out to the phone and I’ll come back in the room here. Phil Stewart from Reuters.

Q: Hey there, thanks. Listen, I realize you can’t go into intel matters but there’s quite a lot of concern about the Russian nuclear threats. I’m wondering, you know, does the statement that the Pentagon does not see anything that would cause it to adjust this nuclear posture mean that there hasn’t been any Russian activity? Is that definitive?

And also how does the Russian threats of nuclear escalation play into how NATO’s nuclear alliance is thinking about moving forward with its support to Ukraine? Thanks.

GEN. RYDER: Yeah, sure. So Phil, I’d say to your first question, I’m not going to have anything different to provide other than, again, we have not seen anything — or have any reason to adjust our posture at this stage.

In terms of the impact on U.S. and international unity and efforts to support Ukraine, as we’ve said before, our focus will continue to be on working together to support Ukraine as they fight to defend their country.

And so I don’t see any change in that at this time.

Thank you. OK. Dan.

OK. Let me go back up to the phone. Luis Martinez, ABC.

Q: Hi, sir. Just two quick questions. One on Hurricane and one on Ukraine. Do you have a — do you know how many ships or how many forces or bases have been reorganized or moved around as a result of, in advance of, the hurricanes coming?

GEN. RYDER: I don’t have that right in front of me, Luis, but we can get that for you.

Q: OK. And on Ukraine, it’s actually more a Russia question, you’ve spoken in the past about how the Russian mobilization may not impact the battlefield. Can you talk to us about these images that we’re seeing inside Russia of these long convoys at border checkpoints, people being upset with these local mobilization officers. What does that speak to? What is the Pentagon’s take on that? Thanks.

GEN. RYDER: Well, it’s certainly something that we’re keeping an eye on as it relates to Russia’s overall readiness and ability to mobilize forces, primarily, again, because this is part of the broader conflict in Ukraine and certainly could impact future conditions there on the battlefield.

As for the response of the Russian people, that’s really not for me to say. I think you can all watch that and make your own conclusions on that. From a operational standpoint, from a military standpoint, as we discussed previously, leading and managing any large military organization is a monumental undertaking in and of itself which requires a high degree of expertise when it comes to things like logistics, sustainment, recruiting, equipping, et cetera. And so again, we just continue to see some of the challenges that the Russian military faces and will continue to face. All that said, it is something that we will have to continue to take seriously, and I know the Ukrainians will continue to take seriously in terms of what the impact will be longer-term on the battlefield. Thank you.

OK, let me go to J.J. Green, and then I’ll come back to the room here.

Q: General, thank you for the chance to ask this question. You’ve spoken before about Russia trying to pull — trying to claim itself as the victim and using that as a call to try to rally support, but these long lines that Luis talked about seem to suggest that that may not be working, but that may just be a small slice of what’s really going on. Do you have a broader picture of how this immobilization is going?

GEN. RYDER: Well, again, yeah, to your earlier comment there, I mean, if we step back in terms of what we’ve all been watching play out over the last year or so, Russia invaded Ukraine, not the other way around. And so it — they are the aggressor here, and clearly have not achieved their strategic objectives when it came to their initial military aims within Ukraine. And as a result, you know, we’ve seen them struggle with command and control. We’ve seen them struggle with logistics. We’ve seen them struggle with sustainment and with troop morale. And now with this mobilization, it’s an effort to address the overall manpower challenges that the Russian military is facing. And again, it adds another level of complexity to an already-challenging systemic situation when it comes to employing these troops.

So we’ll continue to keep an eye on it. In the meantime, our focus, the U.S. focus is working very closely with the international community to support Ukraine in their fight, which will continue to be a tough and difficult fight in the days ahead.

GEN. RYDER: Thanks, J.J.

Sir?

Q: Thank you, General. Two separate questions, first on the mobilization. There are, you know, reports and video footage of, as you mentioned, Russia having a challenging time, actually employing these troops and sending them out and supplying them, essentially, whether it’s ballistic vests or medical equipment. A lot of these troops are having to go and procure these themselves. Does the DOD assess that the Russian military wouldn’t even be able to sustain a full mobilization, since they’re having so much trouble with a partial one?

GEN. RYDER: So, you know, I don’t want to necessarily overstate it and say that we’re — you know, or comment on Russia’s ability to fully mobilize. I think undoubtedly, based on what you’re seeing on — you know, play out in the open press is that they will have challenges meeting those numbers. All that said, you know, we’ll continue to monitor and we’ll continue to see how this plays out. Thank you.

Let me do — yeah, go ahead.

Q: All right, then, the U.S. Coast Guard announced that they have spotted Chinese and Russian ships off the coast of Alaska. I’m curious what the DOD is seeing on that front, and if that’s a common occurrence that’s been happening, or has that spiked recently?

GEN. RYDER: So we’ve seen Russia and China, you know, sail together before, and so my understanding is that those — sailings, — they were sailing in international waters, so no issues there. But obviously, you know, we’ll continue to monitor that and in the meantime, you know, I’d recommend you contact the Coast Guard. They may have additional information on that. Thank you.

All right, let me jump back out to the phone here real quick. I’ve got Caitlin from the New York Post.

Q: Hi. I’ve actually been asked and answered. Thank you so much.

GEN. RYDER: All right, Jeff Schogol, Task & Purpose?

Q: Thank you. In August, a senior military official estimated that the Russians have suffered 80,000 casualties. Can you provide an updated estimate of how many casualties the Russians have suffered, and include a breakdown of how many of those are killed?

GEN. RYDER: Yeah, thanks for the question, Jeff. I don’t have any updates to provide today beyond what we’ve provided previously. Obviously, the battlefield continues to be a very dangerous place and a lot of casualties, but I don’t have any specific numbers to provide. Thank you.

GEN. RYDER: OK, let me go to Sylvie, AFP.

Q: Hello. Thank you. I would like to follow up on Phil’s question on the nuclear threat. You say that you don’t see anything that would make U.S. change its nuclear posture. Do — what would trigger a change of posture? Would it be simple Russian movements, or would you wait for Russia to use a nuclear weapon?

GEN. RYDER: Yeah, thanks, Sylvie. So I don’t want to necessarily get into our tactics or our procedures other than to say that we maintain a whole host of capabilities and proven processes to address any potential threats of that kind. So in the meantime, again, just to reiterate, we’ve seen nothing that would cause us to change our posture. We’ll continue to monitor this very closely. We’ll continue to take it very seriously. But in the meantime, again, there — we’ve seen nothing that would indicate a need to change our particular posture. Thank you.

OK, let me go to Fadi, and then Jim.

Q: Thank you, General. So we’re watching two events unfolding at the same time today, the end of the so-called referendum in the territories that were occupied by Russia. On the other hand, you have the mobilization regardless of the type of challenges the Russians are facing. Is your assessment that the Russians still have the appetite or the strategic objective of capturing additional Ukrainian territories, or in light of the referendum and the mobilization, the aim of this additional manpower is to hold what they have now inside of Ukraine?

GEN. RYDER: Yeah, so two things on that. One, you know, first of all, ultimately, that’s for Russia to decide. However, we’ve seen no indication that they have any intention of changing their overall aim, which is to take over Ukraine, right?

And so I think, again, what we saw from the, you know, earlier part of this conflict was they were not able to meet those broader strategic objectives, and so they scaled back and changed those objectives. And so this latest effort to conduct the sham referenda are an effort to essentially try to change the narrative and distract from the fact that they are not meeting their objectives.

All that to say, no indication that they intend to stop fighting anytime soon, and as I’ve mentioned, and others have mentioned, Russia could end this conflict tomorrow, but in the meantime, we’ll continue to support the Ukrainians in their fight to defend their country and their sovereign territory. Thank you.

Let me go to Jim and then I’ll go back out to the phone.

Q: Yeah, thanks, General. In the past, you’ve been talking about the Russians not learning from their mistakes and not, you know, fixing their logistical problems or fixing their personnel problems. And it strikes me that the Ukrainians are learning from this and their tactics, techniques and procedures have gotten actually better as they’ve gone along in the last six months.

What’s the difference? Why is one side learning, the other side not?

GEN. RYDER: Yeah — no, I appreciate the question, Jim. So I — you know, I don’t want to try to get inside the minds of the Russians or the Ukrainians, other than to say you’re right, the Ukrainians have improvised, overcome and adapted very well on the battlefield. And I think in part is they’re defending their sovereign territory, they’re fighting for their homeland. They have something very dear to fight for and against a neighbor who has invaded them.

So in terms of why the Russian military has performed so poorly, that’s a question they’ll have to answer. It is a fact, and in the meantime, we’ll just continue to support the Ukrainians in their fight. Thank you.

Q: Just a follow up on Russia, we have seen for over months Russians have faltered a lot on the battlefield, they lost a lot, they give a lot of casualties — but we haven’t seen Russians show — using their advanced arms that they have showcased for a long time, like S-400s, Su-35s, and all other advanced missiles. What is the assessment? What is the insight at the Pentagon? Why Russians are not using those?

GEN. RYDER: Yeah, I really — Kasim, I really can’t answer that. That’s a — really a question for the Russian military to address. Yeah, I really can’t answer that. So — OK, thanks very much, everybody. Appreciate it.

Here is the British MOD assessment for today:

And here is their updated map for today:

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments regarding the situations in Kherson and Lyman (2 updates, most recent first regarding Lyman):

KHERSON/2110 UTC 27 SEP/ UKR has solidified its air defense network in Kherson oblast. On 27 SEP, a Russian Su-25 was interdicted by UKR air defense. The wreckage fell within UKR lines indicating the the Su-25 may have been attempting an intruder mission. pic.twitter.com/GjRbey5BON

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 27, 2022

LYMAN / FLASH TRAFFIC / 2330 UTC 27 SEP / UKR forces reported to have registered advances north of Lyman. RU units are falling back in some disarray. Heavy combat reported at Shandryholove. FEBA within 3.5 Km of critical junction city of Zarichne. pic.twitter.com/G08WcnEoUb

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 27, 2022

LYMAN AXIS/ 2010 27 SEP/ UKR forces are reported to be in contact at Shandryholove. UKR has consolidated gains north of the Lyman urban area, and have engaged RU occupiers within the rail complex at Lyman. Reports from RU and UKR sources has been used in this map. pic.twitter.com/59WBS8rchg

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 27, 2022

So part of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline appears to have blown up/been blown up in Danish waters:

L’eau bouillonne dans la zone au-dessus de la fuite du gazoduc Nord Stream en mer Baltique

(Images : armée danoise) #NordStream #gazleak #Russiangazpic.twitter.com/Wib0rnhKIk

— Antoine Llorca (@antoinellorca) September 27, 2022

Reuters has details:

OSLO, Sept 27 (Reuters) – Seismologists in Denmark and Sweden on Monday registered powerful blasts in the areas of the Nord Stream gas leaks, Sweden’s National Seismology Centre (SNSN) at the Uppsala University told public broadcaster SVT on Tuesday.

“There is no doubt that these were explosions,” SNSN seismologist Bjorn Lund told SVT.

Russian state backed TV’s favorite useless idiot has thoughts!

After suggesting the US blew up the pipelines, Tucker starts listing possible options for the Russian retaliation pic.twitter.com/XvmHolSSg4

— Acyn (@Acyn) September 28, 2022

This guy needs a 72 hour observational hold!

The mobilization is going well…

What’s happening is actually beyond insane.
It’s been over 7 months, but sometimes I still can’t believe my eyes and ears.
A giant meat grinder not seen in Europe since 1945 — and for the sake of NOTHING but a handful of old corrupt farts wishing to stay in power forever.

— Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 27, 2022

A woman, who appears to be with long-term military experience, is giving instructions to mobiks on what to take with them. This includes everything that is not armour and uniform, that is, tourniquets, medicines, and women's pads. pic.twitter.com/2geWXw8gmq

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 26, 2022

Here's full translation of his address. 1/2: "Hi everyone, the first tank regiment is here. We were officially told that there would be no training before we will be sent to the war zone. The regiment’s commanders confirmed this. On September 29 we’re will be sent to Kherson".

— Mark Krutov (@kromark) September 27, 2022

🤡The adventures of the mobilized in #Russia pt.2 pic.twitter.com/hz8iTIleOT

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 26, 2022

As I wrote the other night, I’ve seen nicer homeless shelters.

I finally got a chance to read the Time article about General Zaluzhny. Here’s a taste, but I do recommend the whole thing.

It would be easy to underestimate Valeriy Zaluzhny. When not in uniform, the general prefers T-shirts and shorts that match his easygoing sense of humor. When he first heard from aides to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in late July 2021 that he was being tapped to lead the country’s armed forces, his stunned response was, “What do you mean?” As it sank in that he would become commander in chief, he tells TIME in his first interview since the Russian invasion began, he felt as if he had been punched “not just below the belt but straight into a knockout.” George Patton or Douglas MacArthur he is not.

Yet when the history of the war in Ukraine is written, Zaluzhny is likely to occupy a prominent role. He was part of the Ukrainian brass who spent years transforming the country’s military from a clunky Soviet model into a modern fighting force. Hardened by years of battling Russia on the eastern front, he was among a new generation of Ukrainian leaders who learned to be flexible and delegate decisions to commanders on the ground. His dogged preparation in the run-up to the invasion and savvy battlefield tactics in the early phases of the war helped the nation fend off the Russian onslaught. “Zaluzhny has emerged as the military mind his country needed,” U.S. General Mark Milley wrote for TIME of his counterpart last May. “His leadership enabled the Ukrainian armed forces to adapt quickly with battlefield initiative against the Russians.”

That initiative has now taken a key turn in Ukraine’s favor. In Kyiv’s biggest gains since the war began in February, a lightning counteroffensive in the country’s northeast in early September stunned Russian troops, who fled in disarray and ceded vast swaths of occupied territory. Combined with a second operation in the south, Ukrainian forces say they wrested back more than 6,000 sq km from Russian control in less than two weeks, liberating dozens of towns and cities and cutting off enemy supply lines. The Ukrainian army’s deft game of misdirection, touting a counter-offensive in the south before attacking in the northeast, caught Russia off guard. And it validated the Ukrainians’ arguments that intelligence collaboration and billions of dollars in weapons and materiel supplied by Western allies would yield results on the battlefield.

The sudden victories came at a critical point in what had become a grinding war of attrition. As the economic pressures built across Europe and around the world, skeptics were beginning to doubt whether Ukraine could endure a protracted fight. The dramatic rout rattled Moscow, forcing Kremlin propagandists to admit the setback and upping the military and political pressures on Russian President Vladimir Putin. On Sept. 21 he responded by announcing the first mass conscription since World War II, a partial mobilization of up to 300,000 citizens.

Ukrainian and U.S. officials alike believe the war will be longer and bloodier than most imagine. Putin has shown he’s willing to sacrifice his troops and commit atrocities to exhaust his adversary. In a menacing speech, he warned that he was “not bluffing” when he threatened to use everything at his disposal to defend Russia—an allusion to nuclear weapons. The recent Ukrainian offensive may be a turning point, but it is not the decisive blow. “In hindsight, we’ll look at this like the Battle of Midway,” says Dan Rice, a U.S. Army combat veteran and leadership executive at West Point who serves as a special adviser to Zaluzhny, referring to the pivotal 1942 clash that preceded three more years of war.

Zaluzhny is just one of many Ukrainians responsible for the grit and progress of the nation’s outmanned army. Other key officers include General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, who led the defense of Kyiv and, more recently, the counteroffensive in the east, and Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service. But after the President, Zaluzhny has become the face of the war effort. His persona is omnipresent on Ukrainian social media. One widely shared image shows the “Iron General” kneeling in front of the sobbing mother of one of his soldiers, head bowed in grief in front of a casket. In another he flashes a grin presiding over the wedding of one of his servicemen during a lull in the fighting. Fan channels on Telegram have hundreds of thousands of followers, with many changing their profiles to a photo of the general with his hands held in the shape of a heart. “When Zaluzhny walks into a dark room he does not turn on the light, he turns off the darkness,” one viral TikTok video jokes.

It’s hard to predict where the war is headed or the part Zaluzhny will play in the end. But perhaps for the first time, it now seems possible that the army he commands could achieve victory.

Much, much, much more at the link!

A little shopping might be nice!

Winter is Coming

And Ukrainian soldiers need our help

Our goal is to buy $1M worth of generators, sleeping bags, thermal clothing, and medical kits before December

This week, we ordered 100 generators worth $100,000

Shop, donate and spread the word.https://t.co/qdp11CAuqN pic.twitter.com/QfYjReAcOR

— Saint Javelin (@saintjavelin) September 27, 2022

I have one of these in the heather denim/navy.

I think that’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

The wrong tag to author 🤭 @dorosh_raw is the author of this photo ☺️

— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 27, 2022

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok account!

@patron__dsns

🥱 #песпатрон #патрондснс #славаукраїні

♬ original sound – Immediato Interiors 🤎

The caption translates as:

🥱 #PatronDog#PatronDSNS#SlavaUkraini

Open thread!

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

I held another meeting of the Staff today. The main focus is on the operational situation on the frontline. We heard the report by the Commander-in-Chief, commanders, head of intelligence, Minister of Defense. We discussed the use of new weapons by the occupiers, in particular, Iranian drones.

We are constantly working to provide our warriors with weapons and ammunition. All active actions of the Ukrainian military must be synchronized with the use of high-precision weapons. This is one of the basic priorities.

The situation is particularly tough in the Donetsk region. We are doing everything to curb enemy activity. This is where our number one goal is right now, as Donbas is still the number one goal for the occupiers.

Despite the obvious senselessness of the war for Russia and the occupiers’ loss of initiative, the command of the Russian military still drives them to their death. Constant attempts of the Russian offensive in the Donetsk region will surely go down in the history of wars as one of the most cynical murders of one’s own soldiers. When we see this, when we see these offensives, we are once again convinced that the Russian mobilization is a frank attempt to give commanders on the ground a constant stream of “cannon fodder.” There is simply no other point in the Russian mobilization.

They felt that they will lose, and they are simply trying to delay this moment, to ensure at least some activity at the front, to replace the dead with at least someone with weapons in their hands.

Unfortunately, Russian society is not yet aware of all the brutality of the Russian government towards its own people. But we must do everything so that every citizen of Russia recognizes that his own state is depriving him of the most important thing – the right to life.

I spoke today with Mark Rutte, the Prime Minister of the Netherlands. In particular about the criminal mobilization that Russia is carrying out in the occupied territory, trying to throw our citizens to death under the Russian flag. We also talked about sham referenda – the world’s reaction to them and to any further steps taken by the occupiers will be tough.

I am thankful to the Prime Minister for his clear support and willingness to increase sanction pressure on Russia. We coordinated our steps in international organizations, discussed defense cooperation.

I held a meeting with the head of our Government, Denys Shmyhal. We summarized the results of our international activity in September, the results of contacts with partners.

No matter how difficult it is, the state fulfills all its social obligations. We are carrying out work as part of Fast Recovery, returning normal life to the territory liberated from the occupiers. We are taking the necessary steps in preparation for the winter period.

I took part in the launch of a special investment fund to support our Ukrainian entrepreneurs and export-oriented companies. The fund has already attracted 125 million dollars, and the amount will be doubled. The most esteemed Western funds, banks and institutions have invested in this fund, Horizon Capital Growth – that’s what it’s called.

I am grateful to everyone who prepared and implemented this investment project. And I believe that it can become a special signal for investors – a signal that it is possible and necessary to invest in the Ukrainian economy already now, as we are on the path to our victory.

An important political and diplomatic event took place in the Office today. A project on the establishment of a Special International Tribunal to punish Russia for the crime of aggression against our state was presented to the ambassadors of thirty states – our partners.

The difficulty of prosecuting Russia for this crime is that the existing international legal instruments are not enough. What is needed is a Special International Tribunal. And we are working on this project in great detail and meticulously. I have no doubt – the Tribunal will take place. Everyone who unleashed this criminal war against Ukraine and freedom in Europe will be brought to account.

I thank everyone who defends our country! Today I especially want to celebrate the warriors who are defending Ukraine now in the Donetsk region. Warriors of the 93rd separate mechanized brigade “Kholodnyi Yar” and the 10th separate mountain assault brigade – for heroic defense in the Bakhmut direction. And I also want to praise the warriors of the 80th airborne assault brigade for their decisive and competent actions during the liberation of our territory. Thank you guys!

A total of 2135 warriors of these three brigades have already been awarded state awards.

Eternal glory to all those who gain victory for Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:

And here is their updated map for today:

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in/near Lyman:

LYMAN/ 1930 UTC 26 SEP/ Russian sources report that UKR troops are in contact south of the Lyman rail complex. UKR units reported to have cut the O-0526 HWY at Zelena Dolyna and are pressing toward the O-0526 HWY east of Drobysheve. pic.twitter.com/34rqWaD4pj

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 26, 2022

For those interested:

The recent campaign to help heal Mykhailo Dianov, the Azovstal marine, was quite a success. And so many of you guys are so eager to keep donating.
I’m receiving donations on my PayPal account [email protected] pic.twitter.com/Ivh9iFSXME

— Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 26, 2022

I’ll focus on the Azovstal guys first. They need our help, many of them are dismembered, or their health condition is dire after months in Russian captivity. But this thing is infinite — many years after the war, we’ll be still having combat vets we must support. pic.twitter.com/mg6G5PSUNl

— Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 26, 2022

With Rosh HaShana and hurricane prep, I haven’t had a chance to read this yet:

🫡🫡🫡 pic.twitter.com/gGpsiwEWi3

— Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 26, 2022

But I’m looking forward to getting the chance to do so.

If you wonder what Ukrainians are discussing on social media these days, well, it's how to prepare for a Russian nuclear strike. Everything that's happening is so horrible that it feels surreal, yet it can still get worse and people are getting ready for it

— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) September 26, 2022

The mobilization is going well:

NEW: Russians waiting at the border with Georgia in long lines of trucks and cars after Putin’s mobilization order, per a Sept 25 image.

More than 115,000 Russians have fled into Georgia since mobilization order last week. Lines formed more than 16km from border

📸:@Maxar pic.twitter.com/jqv3sgmH5P

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) September 26, 2022

Looks like the 🇷🇺 mobilization is going very well… pic.twitter.com/82kjUKth6n

— Carl Bildt (@carlbildt) September 26, 2022

I’ve seen the reports that Putin is closing Russia’s borders; at least to those between 18 and 55 or so.

Speaking of potential draftees in Russia:

https://t.co/eyb8pxaqZW

— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) September 26, 2022

Once you buy a prize, it’s your’s to keep!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Breaking news! @carmenelectra follows me 😮 pic.twitter.com/EuI7fLB3IT

— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 26, 2022

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Ось так Том відкрив мені страшну таємницю… #песпатрон #патрондснс #славаукраїні

♬ оригинальный звук – _KataRina_💙

The caption translates as:

his is how Tom revealed a terrible secret to me… #PatronDog #PatronDSNS #SlavaUkraini

Open thread!

Ukrainians!

Today we have great news. Maryana Mamonova, a combat medic, defender of Azovstal whom we freed from Russian captivity gave birth to a daughter. I sincerely congratulate Maryana from the bottom of my heart and wish the girls only the best – peace and victory.

This is another proof that life always triumphs over any evil. And evil under the Russian flag is no exception to this rule.

Now all our state structures, which are needed, are fully working to help our released warriors. Medical aid, social, legal… Treatment, rehabilitation, restoration of documents, bank cards, housing, etc.

Rustem Umerov, pursuant to my instruction, visited our commanders from “Azovstal” in Turkey today. He checked their living conditions – the conditions are comfortable. The boys are provided with everything they need. Rustem controls that. Soon we will ensure that the boys meet their relatives and friends.

This week, on Tuesday, I am to receive a clear plan for each of those released – how their normal lives will be restored. Just as the process of releasing our heroes from captivity, this process of normalization is managed by Andriy Yermak, Head of the Office. He is also assisted by Kyrylo Budanov, Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, as well as our ombudsman, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Security Service, etc.

I would like to emphasize: work is ongoing regarding the next exchanges. No matter how difficult it may be, we must free all our people, all Ukrainians. We do not forget about anyone.

But we should still remember: it is not easy, it requires the efforts of many people, and it is directly related to the situation on the frontline. Our active actions include, in particular, the increase of those whom we can exchange. The more Russian soldiers are detained by Ukrainian forces, the faster we will be able to free our warriors, our heroes from Russian captivity.

Fierce fighting takes place in many sections of the front with a total length of more than 2,000 kilometers. This is the Donetsk region, this is our Kharkiv region, Kherson region, as well as Mykolaiv and Zaporizhia regions. We have positive results in several directions.

And no matter what happens this week in Russia, no matter what steps the terrorist state plans – political or military – the tasks of our state, the tasks of Ukraine, cannot change: we are fighting for life and freedom for all Ukrainians.

This week there will be a new wave of our diplomatic activity. My new appeals to the political, business and student communities abroad. Our needs, our positions, our view on how to stop Russian evil will be heard everywhere in the world, absolutely everywhere.

We will also make a special emphasis. Emphasis on the fact that criminal mobilization is used by Russia not only to prolong the suffering of people in Ukraine and to further destabilize the world, but also to physically exterminate men – representatives of indigenous peoples who live in the territories controlled so far, temporarily, by the Russian Federation.

The situation in the occupied Crimea is catastrophic. The information about the Crimean Tatar people is fully confirmed: most of the mobilization letters are given there specifically to qırımlılar. This is another element of Russia’s policy of genocide, another reason for the immediate and tough reaction of the whole world.

The same is happening on the territory of Russia itself. This is a deliberate imperial policy. This is a blow to the peoples of, for example, Dagestan and the entire Caucasus, to the indigenous peoples of Siberia and other territories.

And I want to repeat it once again.

Again in Russian, specially for Russian “comrades”.

And this is not a kind of collection of peoples in Russia, not badges or flags somewhere on the map, no. These are not candy wrappers – these are real people.

And only now you are beginning to hear it, yet still not everywhere.

We see that people, in particular, in Dagestan, began to fight for their lives. We see that they are beginning to understand that this is a question of their lives. Why should their husbands, brothers, sons die in this war? In a war that one man wants. In a war against our people, on our land. He does not send his children to war.

Fight to ensure that your children are not sent to die – everyone who can be taken by this criminal Russian mobilization. Because if you come to take the lives of our children – I will tell you as a father – we will not let you go alive.

I want to emphasize once again: there is a way out. Do not submit to criminal mobilization. Flee. Or surrender to Ukrainian captivity at the first opportunity. I urge all our friends in the information field to spread this appeal. The more citizens of the Russian Federation at least try to protect their own lives, the sooner this criminal war of Russia against the people of Ukraine will end.

I am thankful to everyone who fights and works for our victory! A difficult week is ahead. A difficult path. Difficult challenges. But ahead is our victory. And it is inevitable.

This evening, I want to congratulate the Ukrainian Jewish community and all the Jews of the world on Rosh Hashanah. May all prayers for victory, all prayers for peace for Ukraine be heard.

Keep defending Ukraine!

Keep defending life!

Glory to Ukraine!

This is the medic that President Zelenskyy is referring to in his nightly address:

Marianna Mamonova, an Azovstal combat medic, has given birth to a child, just days after being freed from Russian captivity.
It’s a girl!
The child has been born free. pic.twitter.com/umWccBAxaY

— Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 25, 2022

Just in time for Rosh HaShana:

Our boy has got so far 😊 pic.twitter.com/Fq8GGQ9Nrc

— Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 25, 2022

Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today. It appears the mappers were given the day off to prepare for the Jewish New Year…

 

Here’s former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent updates regarding the situations in Lyman and Kherson:

LYMAN/1430 UTC 25 SEP/ UKR forces have prosecuted a multi-pronged attack to isolate and dislodge RU troops occupying the important rail junction at Lyman. UKR has crossed and cut the O-0527 HWY near Drobysheve. UKR air defense is reported to have downed an Su-34 strike fighter. pic.twitter.com/JmXkHq48RE

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 25, 2022

KHERSON/ 2045 UTC 25 SEP/ UKR air defense downed a pair of Iranian made Shaheed-136 UCAVs, intercepting them before they could reach targets in Mykolaiv. On 24 SEP, UKR air defense downed a Russian Su-25, and shortly after, an Mi-8 CSAR helicopter, reportedly near Beryslav. pic.twitter.com/mucYHreZQi

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 25, 2022

Apparently it’s NASAMS O’Clock too!

We now have NASAMS

— Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 25, 2022

AIR DEFENSE DOMINANCE: Jason Jay Smart @officejjsmart reports that UKR Pres. Vladimir Zelensky has confirmed that Ukraine has deployed NASAMS air defense systems. These Norwegian/ US air surface to air missile complexes will further blunt RU frontal aviation. https://t.co/8uaZPWoNPO pic.twitter.com/iEqCGJnIW1

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 25, 2022

There was speculation that the Russians used a chloropicrin grenade. Here’s CBRN subject matter expert Dan Kaszeta debunking that and explaining that it was a CS grenade. Which is banned under the Geneva Convention:

Here's alleged photos of the device. pic.twitter.com/mvpcCq4mfu

— Dan Kaszeta 🇺🇦🇱🇹 (@DanKaszeta) September 24, 2022

However, the K-51 is not a "chloropicrin grenade". It is a CS tear gas grenade. https://t.co/bdTNB5lNac pic.twitter.com/Q0a8X93Y69

— Dan Kaszeta 🇺🇦🇱🇹 (@DanKaszeta) September 24, 2022

Several people were asking about the rumors and speculation that Xi has been deposed in a coup. As I wrote last night, that’s all garbage. Here’s a great thread explaining how this all got pushed on social media:

Since last night I analyzed close to 2000+ accounts amplifying the hashtag #chinacoup. Despite this graph not being pretty enough given the large dataset, I figured out a bunch of accounts with significantly low followers that acted as the key disseminators of the rumor. pic.twitter.com/8PtfobJ6hk

— Atandra Ray (@atandra_ray) September 25, 2022

Yes, you read that right, that big node on the upper left is an account named “loliwifegroomer”. I’m sure he’s quite nice…

Similarly, this account claimed that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has taken control of China, and President Xi Jinping is under house arrest. The account also featured a picture of Li Qiaoming, a general of the Chinese People's Liberation Army and Jack Ma, of Alibaba Group. pic.twitter.com/gP3EHDtCRq

— Atandra Ray (@atandra_ray) September 25, 2022

Given the Sino-Indian border dispute, there seem to be a lot of accounts originating from India further amplifying the claim that Chinese President Xi Jinping is under house arrest.

— Atandra Ray (@atandra_ray) September 25, 2022

FYI, @HuJirui found that the rumour originated in Chinese-language Twitter. It had also been brewing for two days before Jennifer Zeng amplified it. The aforementioned rumour can be found on this link https://t.co/2W57NSnCiC which was posted on the 21st of September.

— Atandra Ray (@atandra_ray) September 25, 2022

Last substantial item tonight:

North Korea has launched a suspected ballistic missile. More updates to follow.

— PM's Office of Japan (@JPN_PMO) September 24, 2022

For the last time: one conflict at a time is all I can handle with my current schedule!

There is actual footage of the launch:

pic.twitter.com/XUSrx3C4Ie

— Andreas (@AndreasSKS) September 24, 2022

That’s enough for tonight.

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— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 25, 2022

We did it! Thank you 🐶❤️ pic.twitter.com/3TLOhUEtpS

— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 26, 2022

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

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The caption translates as:

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Open thread!

Ukrainians!

Today, I signed the decree awarding the title of Hero of Ukraine to Serhiy Sova. A fighter of the glorious 93rd mechanized brigade “Kholodnyi Yar”. He has defended our state – Ukraine since the beginning of the war in 2014, fought for Pisky, for the Donetsk airport. After February 24, he fought in the Kharkiv region.

Serhiy Sova gave his life for Ukraine. We’ve all seen the photo of his hand with blue and yellow bracelets on his wrist. He has worn them as a talisman since 2014. And this photo was one of the first from Izyum, from the mass burial site in the forest that was discovered when the occupiers fled. He was a true warrior and a father that one can be proud of. Eternal memory and honor to the hero!

Eternal glory to all our warriors who gave their lives in battles for our state!

Today I awarded the honorary award “For Courage and Bravery” to three of our brigades. The 1st separate tank Siversk brigade, the 40th separate artillery brigade, the 57th separate motorized infantry brigade.

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Russia, the fighters of the 1st separate tank brigade have performed their tasks with dignity and courage. First in the Chernihiv region, and now in the hottest spots of the south and east of our country. In six months, more than a thousand warriors of this brigade were awarded state awards.

Units of the 40th separate artillery brigade defend the state in the Kharkiv direction and do it very bravely and effectively. The proven losses of the Russian army from the fire of this brigade of ours make it clear to all the occupiers that there will be no place for the enemy on our land.

This month, the 57th separate motorized infantry brigade achieved good results in the south of our country, liberating a number of settlements in the Kherson region. During the period of the full-scale invasion of Russia, three warriors in the 57th brigade were already awarded the “Gold Star” Order and 275 servicemen received state awards.

By the way, since the establishment of such an award for our military units – and it was established in May of this year – 46 military units have already been awarded for courage and bravery. Of them, 38 military units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, four military units of the State Border Service, four military units of the National Guard. I am grateful to all of you, guys! Well done!

The heroism and grit of our warriors, the striving for independence and justice, which united all our people, do not leave a single doubt that Ukraine will prevail and that all invaders on our territory will definitely be defeated. Unless they run away. Indeed, it is true.

Once again I want to say to Russians in Russian.

It was no coincidence that the criminal mobilization declared by Russia was immediately called a “mobilization to graves” by the citizens of Russia themselves. Mobilization to graves. The Russian authorities are well aware that they are sending their citizens to death – there are no other options.

Russian commanders do not care about the lives of Russians – they just need to replenish the empty spaces left by the dead, wounded, those who fled or the Russian soldiers that were captured.

Your government does not care who will take these places. Either young IT specialists who did not serve at all, or pensioners who served only in the Soviet army. So, the key moment has come for you: right now it is being decided whether your life will end or not.

It is better not to take a conscription letter than to die in a foreign land as a war criminal.

It is better to run away from criminal mobilization than to be crippled and then bear responsibility in the court for participating in the war of aggression.

It is better to surrender to Ukrainian captivity than to be killed by the strikes of our weapons, absolutely fair strikes, as Ukraine defends itself in this war. We defend the brightest – we defend our lives, our children, our freedom.

What is Russia fighting for? Every citizen of Russia knows – even if many do not admit it, they know for sure – that it is Russia that brings evil.

Ukraine guarantees every Russian soldier who surrenders three things. First, you will be treated in a civilized manner, in accordance with all conventions. Second, no one will know the circumstances of your surrender, no one in Russia will know that your surrender was voluntary. And third, if you are afraid to return to Russia and do not want an exchange, we will find a way to ensure this as well.

Ukraine will do everything for its victory. And every citizen of Russia should understand: no tricks will help the occupier. I promise you that.

We will retaliate against every strike of the aggressor – at Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Nikopol, Donbas, at all our cities and regions… We will definitely liberate our entire country – from Kherson to the Luhansk region, from Crimea, I emphasize that, to the Donetsk region.

We will not allow the occupier to go unpunished. Every murderer and torturer will be brought to justice for what he did against us, Ukrainians.

Eternal glory to all our heroes!

Glory to our indomitable people!

Eternal memory to all those who gave their lives for our homeland – for Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Senior Soldier of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade Serhiy Sova was posthumously awarded the title Hero of Ukraine by @ZelenskyyUa
The photo of his mutilated hand with a 🇺🇦 bracelet found at the mass burial site in Izyum became a tragic symbol of russian atrocities in Kharkiv region. pic.twitter.com/IRXBGWIbxt

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 24, 2022

Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:

And here is their updated map for today:

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent update regarding the situation in Izium:

IZIUM/1320 UTC 24 SEP/ Yesterday, UKR Partisans and Signals Intelligence Intelligence identified the HQ of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division in Svatove. A precision strike was directed on the building during a staff meeting, severely wounding Major General Oleg Tsokov. pic.twitter.com/sthdiqVWpN

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 24, 2022

This is what the Russians are saying about what the Ukrainian military is doing:

It is going 'somewhat' unnoticed by the AFU are still very much pushing to encircle Lyman. Rybar just reported a few important settlements were captured and if Svatove is liberated, the Russian Lyman group will be encircled. pic.twitter.com/1Az2dIEjMi

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 24, 2022

If you click on the link there’s a second tweet with a correct screengrab of the original Russian.

Here’s the English translation as a screengrab:

I would not want to be holed up in Isengard…

“The Ents are going to war” pic.twitter.com/QUNzKeDsFc

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 24, 2022

This is incredible.
Within just 24 hours, Mykhailo Danilov’s family received over UAH 5 million in donations from across the world.
The goal was to fundraise UAH 500,000 and heal the Azovstal marine’s arm. His family is extremely thankful, and it has stopped the campaign. pic.twitter.com/O1Wic1Dopw

— Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 24, 2022

The garrison of Mariupol had orders to hold the city as long as possible ✅
Then, they were ordered to save their lives✅
215 soldiers are free✅
Their new task:to undergo rehabilitation&tell their story to the world✊
Success of 🇺🇦 negotiators🔥
Thanks to @ZelenskyyUa @RTErdogan pic.twitter.com/75564cuzbI

— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) September 22, 2022

I can feel the tetanus through this tweet!

The Russian mobilization shit show in full swing pic.twitter.com/uDRa1v1MGY

— Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 24, 2022

The rusty AKs are not only par for the course, but actually in better shape than a lot of the equipment and material that the Kremlin is providing the troops:

The rusty AK's were not the worst, according to an "LPR" guy…https://t.co/1e0yTXZT2S pic.twitter.com/HWncPERWXY

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 24, 2022

And here’s the English translation as a screengrab:

I’m not going to post them, but I’ve now watched about a dozen different videos/video clips of recently mobilized/conscripted Russians at the in-processing centers or at the training sites they’re being sent to. Leaving aside the ones where everyone is falling down drunk, a lot of these videos look like they were filmed in homeless shelters. And that’s probably an insult to homeless shelters.

This mobilization is going to be a mess and it is not going to work. Whether it creates the conditions to weaken Putin in any significant way is an open question.

For you logistics enthusiasts:

We continue to rely on russia for the provision of weapons while we await those that will be provided as part of the Lend-Lease program. pic.twitter.com/wjZR6tfxBu

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 22, 2022

This is how POWs are supposed to be treated. Also, another data point in the mountain of data that the Russian military is poorly trained, poorly led, and poorly equipped.

This Russian soldier enlisted to earn some money. After five minutes of fighting he was the only survivor of his tank crew.

He tells about complete lack of training and equipment for new soldiers (and that was before partial mobilization).

📹: @UButusov pic.twitter.com/PAkGpvQXCg

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 24, 2022

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!