Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Ron DeSantis, the grand wizard, oops, governor of FL.

The gop is a fucking disgrace.

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

This fight is for everything.

“They not like us!” (that’s for sure!)

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires Republicans to act in good faith.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

Republicans got rid of McCarthy. Democrats chose not to save him.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

Dear media: perhaps we ought to let Donald Trump speak for himself!

The rest of the comments were smacking Boebert like she was a piñata.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

Boeing: repeatedly making the case for high speed rail.

Well, whatever it is, it’s better than being a Republican.

Days Since JD Vance Insulted Women Across America: Zero

SCOTUS: It’s not “bribery” unless it comes from the Bribery region of France. Otherwise, it’s merely “sparkling malfeasance”.

Despite his magical powers, I don’t think Trump is thinking this through, to be honest.

“In the future, this lab will be a museum. don’t touch it.”

“Cheese and Kraken paired together for the appetizer trial.”

You are here: Home / Politics / Running Out of Patience

Running Out of Patience

by | 146 Comments

This post is in: , , ,

Biden “running out” of patience with Bibi as Gaza war hits 100 days  (Axios)

Biden is running out of patience with Bibi and the destruction of Gaza?  So say we all.

Snippets from the article:

President Biden and other senior U.S. officials are becoming increasingly frustrated with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his rejection of most of the administration’s recent requests related to the war in Gaza, four U.S. officials with direct knowledge of the issue told Axios.

Behind the scenes: Biden hasn’t spoken to Netanyahu in the 20 days since a tense Dec. 23 call, which a frustrated Biden ended with the words: “This conversation is over.” They had spoken almost every other day in the first two months of the war.

Before Biden hung up, Netanyahu had rejected his request that Israel release the Palestinian tax revenues it’s withholding.

State of play: The main driver of Biden’s frustration is Netanyahu’s resistance to moving on requests that are U.S. priorities.

In addition to the tax revenue issue, Biden and his advisers believe Israel isn’t doing enough to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza.
They’re also frustrated by Netanyahu’s unwillingness to seriously discuss plans for the day after the war and his rejection of the U.S. plan for a reformed Palestinian Authority to have a role in post-Hamas Gaza.

U.S. officials are now growing increasingly concerned that Israel won’t meet its timetable to transition to low-intensity operations in Gaza by the end of January, based on where things stand in Gaza, particularly in the southern city of Khan Younis.

If Israel doesn’t significantly scale down its operations in Gaza — which U.S. officials have been pressing for in hopes of reducing Palestinian casualties — it will likely become increasingly difficult for Biden to maintain the same level of support for Israel’s military campaign.

The big picture: Secretary of State Tony Blinken’s visit to Israel last week only exacerbated the frustrations within the White House and the State Department, the U.S. officials who spoke to Axios said.

Netanyahu did agree to allow a UN mission to enter northern Gaza to assess the needs for the future return of Palestinian civilians to the area, but that was about all he was willing to give Blinken.
Blinken was very blunt with Netanyahu and his War Cabinet, stressing that the Israeli government’s plan for the day after the war is “pie in the sky,” a U.S. official said.

Blinken, who pointedly visited Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar before heading to Israel, also told Israeli leaders that “no Arab country is going to bail them out” on the rebuilding and governance of Gaza if Israel doesn’t allow the PA to have a role and doesn’t allow for a political horizon for the Palestinians, the official said.

Going Forward / Long Term:

The Biden administration is trying to change Netanyahu’s calculus by reviving efforts to reach a mega-deal with Saudi Arabia that would include a historic peace deal with Israel.

Blinken told Netanyahu that Saudi Arabia still wants normalization after the war ends, but only if Israel commits to the principle of a two-state solution, U.S. and Israeli officials previously told Axios.

During last week’s visit, Blinken held a separate meeting with war cabinet minister Benny Gantz, who domestic polls show would likely handily win an Israeli election if it were held today.

Blinken also met with opposition leader Yair Lapid and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Netanyahu’s key rival inside the prime minister’s Likud party.

Not exactly sure who linked to the Axios article earlier.  Maybe Baud?

🌼

Nearly a month ago, it was reported by the UN that more than half a million people in the Gaza strip are starving.  And the ones who aren’t starving are surely not getting enough to eat.  Not getting enough medical care.  Homes are being destroyed.  Is there even clean water?  Medicine?  Surely not enough.

Is Israel trying to bomb Palestinians out of existence under the guise of going after Hamas?  We already know that Russia is trying to do that with Ukraine.

Just as with Covid, there are some who view people as expendable.  Martyrs to a cause that is not their own.  We have always know who Putin was; no surprises there.  Men like Bibi and Trump, who thumb their nose at the courts and say fuck you to the United Nations and NATO and other institutions – and thumb their noses to long-time allies – also have to be stopped.  Along with the Republicans in the House – basically all of them – who have abdicated their responsibilities to the country, to the American people.  Their only loyalty is to their own power.

I know we have to vote them out, but what about the people who are dying every day in Gaza and Ukraine?  They cannot wait 10 months for elections.

Propaganda abounds.  People who are trying to help Palestinians are being accused of being anti-semitic.

Hopefully – surely – this must be the last gasp of those trying to hang on to power at all costs.  But what can we do in the meantime?   People are dying.  There has to be something we can do, right?  Right?

Running out of patience.  Indeed.

 

Reader Interactions

146Comments

  2. 2.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    In addition to the tax revenue issue, Biden and his advisers believe Israel isn’t doing enough to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza.

    I’m imagining what our response would be if it were a country other than Israel, likely something a little more…zealous. Not saying that would be right.

    I actually appreciate the Biden administration’s approach to this. They’re walking a tightrope between public sentiment and Likud being difficult assholes.

    This is the first administration I’m aware of that even acknowledges the difficulties the Israeli government presents. They communicate clearly they’re working on the problem. South Africa wasn’t divested from in a day.

  3. 3.

    HinTN

    I think it’s significant that the phrase “war in Gaza” was used. That’s a lever that increases the stakes for Israel.

  4. 4.

    Chacal Charles Calthrop

    Kevin Drum over at his blog Jabberwocking proposes that the US just airlift civilian supplies into Gaza a la the Berlin Airlift: https://jabberwocking.com/can-the-us-bring-in-aid-to-gaza-directly/

    I think that’s a great idea.  Israel is claiming that humanitarian supplies can’t be allowed in unless Israel first inspects them because otherwise the aide will be full of supplies for Hamas but even Israel can’t claim that the US is secretly smuggling weapons to Hamas.

  6. 6.

    Geminid

    Yoav Gallant is only one of PM Netanyahu’s Likud rivals. Before Netanyahu unexpectedy won a 64-56 majority in the Nov. 1, 2022 elections, Yuli Edelstein had been expected to mount a leadership challenge to Netanyahu.

    Gallant is thought to be a Netanyahu foe because of his dissent last Spring over Netanyahu’s push to restrict the power of the judiciary. Netanyahu announced he was firing the Defense Minister, but nationwide protests forced Netanyahu to back down.

    The two men have had a contentious relationship since the Knesset placed Gallant, Netanyahu and Benny Gantz on a “War Cabinet” charged with deciding basic war policies, back on October 11.

  7. 7.

    trollhattan

    Long as that fucker Bibi and his virtual nazi coalition government partners are in charge, they’re not listening to us or anybody else. He’s Trump and Putin rolled into one.

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he has told the United States that he opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state once the conflict in Gaza comes to an end.

    In a news conference, a defiant Mr Netanyahu vowed to press on with the offensive in Gaza “until complete victory”: the destruction of Hamas and return of the remaining Israeli hostages, adding that it could take “many more months”.

    With almost 25,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, and 85% of the strip’s population displaced, Israel is under intense pressure to rein in its offensive and engage in meaningful talks over a sustainable end to the war.

    Israel’s allies, including the US – and many of its foes – have urged a revival of the long-dormant “two-state solution”, in which a future Palestinian state would sit side-by-side with an Israeli one.

    The hope in many circles is that the current crisis could force the warring parties back to diplomacy, as the only viable alternative to endless cycles of violence. But from Mr Netanyahu’s comments, his intention appears quite the opposite.

    During Thursday’s news conference, he said Israel must have security control over all land west of the River Jordan, which would include the territory of any future Palestinian state.

    “This is a necessary condition, and it conflicts with the idea of (Palestinian) sovereignty. What to do? I tell this truth to our American friends, and I also stopped the attempt to impose a reality on us that would harm Israel’s security,” he said.

  9. 9.

    trollhattan

    @Chacal Charles Calthrop:

    Think it would necessarily need to be a neutral 3rd nation. He asks.

    In theory this is dangerous, but would Israel really do anything if we told them this was a humanitarian mission and we were coming in whether they liked it or not?

    Which is only half the question and leaves out the Hamas response to fat American transport aircraft in their sights.

  12. 12.

    Geminid

    @Chacal Charles Calthrop: France and the UAE air dropped some supplies a week or so ago. But a Berlin airlift-type operation would require building a landing strip in what is essentially a war zone. The better way probably is for the US to ramp up the pressure along with the other countries with influence over Israel. Those would include European countries like the UK, France and Germany as well as Gulf Arab states like Bahrain, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Egypt has a say in the matter as well.

  13. 13.

    Marc

    @trollhattan: Which is only half the question and leaves out the Hamas response to fat American transport aircraft in their sights.

    There are ways around that sort of problem, if one is willing to negotiate a solution, rather than impose one.

  15. 15.

    Marc

    @Geminid:  But a Berlin airlift-type operation would require building a landing strip in what is essentially a war zone.

    That is why the Marines have a fleet of heavy lift helicopters and CV-22s, and the Navy has heavy lift hovercraft.  We could do it, we just don’t want to.

  16. 16.

    El Cruzado

    The main reason Netanyahu isn’t in jail right now is that there’s a war going, and Netanyahu gets to decide when the war ends.

    I’m not sure why this isn’t more talked about.

  19. 19.

    Geminid

    @Marc: Well, we have the heavy helicopters but I think the CV-22s are grounded right now. We certainly have the engineering resources to build a landing strip if Biden wants to go that route. He wants to avoid putting US military personnel in the Gaza Strip though, I think with good reason.

  20. 20.

    New Deal democrat

    Not exactly on point, but this is probably the best thread to note that the Israel-Hamas war has now widened into a naval U.S.-Houthis war:

    https://nitter.net/SkyNews/status/1748037567335825492#m

    Plus Iran retaliated for a Sunni terrorist attack with reprisals in Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan. In turn Pakistan retaliated with an attack inside Iran.

    Dan Guild asks a good question: if US air strikes do not stop the Houthis, what would be necessary to achieve “victory?

  21. 21.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @bjacques: Blowing up cities and taking control of the resulting mess is certainly one method of recovering hostages.

  22. 22.

    misterpuff

    Does it have to be an airlift? Gaza is on the freaking ocean.

    Put the Red Cross or other NGO in charge of distribution, and start shipping in. With a big freaking US carrier providing “air cover”.

    Tell Israel to pound sand. And then get the hostages out.

  23. 23.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @New Deal democrat: Dan Guild asks a good question: if US air strikes do not stop the Houthis, what would be necessary to achieve “victory?

    Leaving the region to its own devices. They got some stuff to figure out and I sincerely doubt whether we have been helping or even could.

  24. 24.

    Marc

    @New Deal democrat:  Dan Guild asks a good question: if US air strikes do not stop the Houthis, what would be necessary to achieve “victory?

    I’ll admit to being in a bad mood, today, but “victory” likely involves widening the war to Iran, which we cleverly seem to be getting ourselves sucked in to.

  25. 25.

    KrackenJack

    @El Cruzado: ​
     To the extent that there are potential war crimes charges against the IDF, their interests are now aligned with Netanyahu’s.

  26. 26.

    Geminid

    @El Cruzado: Yeah, people tend to forget about Netanyahu’s criminal case. That may be because it has moved at an almost imperceptable pace. He was indicted in 2020, and his trial started in April of 2021.  After many delays the trial might finish this year. Then the appeals will begin.

    But I don’t think Netanyahu will hold the premiership much longer anyway. He will likely be found guilty as a private citizen.

  27. 27.

    ira

    @The Kropenhagen Interpretation: Actually, they’re not. Bush Sr. Sec of State, James Baker, famously said ‘“The phone number (for the White House switchboard) is 202-456-1414. When you’re serious about this [U..S. plans for peace talks with the Palestinians] call us,” when testifying before the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

  28. 28.

    Dan B

    I’m constantly troubled by the GOP’s lack of support for Ukraine.  I’ve seen so many pictures of Ukrainians, starting with Zelenskyy and his family, who would be hauled off by Putin’s orcs the moment there are not enough armaments to stave off the Russians.  The reasons that the GOP can ignore this is #1. Empathy is weakness, #2. Checks from those silent (Russian assets) would cease.  Corruption of morals and souls kills.

  29. 29.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @ira: Thank you, I did not know that. Bush Sr. continues his reign as best Republican President of my lifetime (low bar, I know).

    In my defense, I was 9 when Bush I left office.

  34. 34.

    Nelle

    @WaterGirl: Me too.  I had a fifteen minute call with my Congressman’s office person today about Ukraine.  She was a good listener and I asked for a written update.  The Congressman,  a combat vet , tries to sound reasonable but follows party line.

  35. 35.

    Ksmiami

    @WaterGirl: I’d like to see the Dems push out the Republicans in Congress- useless mutherfuckers. You might think this is radical, but it is the GOP which has brought lawlessness and chaos to us.

  37. 37.

    WaterGirl

    @HinTN:

    I think it’s significant that the phrase “war in Gaza” was used. That’s a lever that increases the stakes for Israel.

    That’s an interesting thought.  Say more?

  38. 38.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @Ksmiami: I’d like to see the Dems push out the Republicans in Congress- useless mutherfuckers. You might think this is radical, but it is the GOP which has brought lawlessness and chaos to us.

    Depends on the method. You want them voted out? That seems viable, ethical, would have to be done with the consent of the public, and gets the job done. No radical steps needed.

  47. 47.

    Another Scott

    @WaterGirl:

    Relatedly, WhiteHouse.gov (from yesterday):

    JANUARY 17, 2024
    Readout of President Biden’s Meeting with Congressional Leaders on Ukraine and His National Security Supplemental

    Today, President Biden convened Congressional Leadership and the Chairs and Ranking Members of the House and Senate Intelligence, Armed Services, and Appropriations Committees, and the Senate Foreign Relations and House Foreign Affairs Committees to discuss the urgent need for Congress to continue supporting Ukraine as part of the global coalition we have built. In the meeting, President Biden underscored the importance of Congress ensuring Ukraine has the resources it needs—including air defense and artillery capabilities—to defend itself against Russia’s brutal invasion. The President discussed the strategic consequences of inaction for Ukraine, the United States, and the world. He was clear: Congress’s continued failure to act endangers the United States’ national security, the NATO Alliance, and the rest of the free world. The President called on Congress to quickly provide additional funding to support Ukraine and send a strong signal of U.S. resolve. The President also made clear that we must act now to address the challenges at the border. He said he is encouraged by the progress being made in the bipartisan negotiations happening in the Senate. He expressed his commitment to reaching a bipartisan agreement on border policy and the need for additional resources at the border. The President called on Congress to swiftly pass his full national security supplemental.

    ###

    Early on after he sent the Supplemental request to the Hill, just about every mention of the needs in Ukraine also explicitly included Israel.

    “Israel” is missing in the statement above. I noticed it immediately; I wonder if Bibi and his enablers did as well.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  48. 48.

    Raoul Paste

    @Nelle: i’m frustrated too.  It is likely that Biden has already given these congressmen explicit and classified briefings about what is iat stake in Ukraine.   Given that, these Republican congressmen know exactly what they are doing, who they are hurting, and who they are helping.

    It’s pretty monstrous.

  50. 50.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @WaterGirl: Only if you’re happy enough finding the hostages dead.

    Hey, man, it’s Israel’s strategy. I vote in the US, I don’t have a say

    @Ksmiami: I was thinking kidnapping a few and giving them edibles during a voting session

    That sounds just like showing them a good time.

  51. 51.

    Brachiator

    @New Deal democrat:

    Dan Guild asks a good question: if US air strikes do not stop the Houthis, what would be necessary to achieve “victory?

    We’re not at war with the Houthis. I don’t understand what “victory” means.

    Is this similar to the problems faced by the US early in its existence when it had to deal with the Barbary pirates?

  55. 55.

    New Deal democrat

    @Brachiator:

    We’re not at war with the Houthis. I don’t understand what “victory” means.

    Fine. You’re right. It’s not a “war.“ It’s a banana split. What is the likely future course of all this banana splitting? What would it take for the US to decide it was satiated, and did not need to have any more banana splits with the Houthis?

  56. 56.

    Brachiator

    @trollhattan:

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he has told the United States that he opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state once the conflict in Gaza comes to an end.

    Wow. This really ups the stakes, and perhaps Bibi is backing himself into a corner with this statement.

    In a way, this also puts pressure on the Palestinians and their allies to expel Hamas and try for a peace settlement.

  57. 57.

    lowtechcyclist

    What can the U.S. do?

    1) The U.S. provides $3B/year of aid to Israel. I don’t know with what frequency the money flows from here to there, but upcoming payments should be delayed until after this war ends. ETA: Maybe until Bibi is no longer part of the government, too.

    2) Get aid in to Gaza somehow. As misterpuff pointed out upthread, Gaza is on the water. Can’t see why supplies can’t be brought in by ship. Or airlifted but dropped by parachute rather than by landing on a runway.

    3) BLOCKADE ISRAEL. We can do it from the water (Med and Aqaba), and let the Arab nations decide whether to join in. Stop all shipments into and out of Israel. Tell them it’ll keep up until Netanyahu is not part of the Israeli government.

    Obviously we’re not going to do #3. But it’s one of the things that yes, we could do if we were willing to.​

  58. 58.

    Another Scott

    @misterpuff: Gaza doesn’t have any ports big enough for the job because Israel has prevented them.

    And one can’t just throw up a port anywhere on the Gaza shoreline.

    E.g. Reliefweb.int (from February 2018):

    The Gaza City Port (Hamas Plan)

    The planned Gaza port is in the vicinity of Nuseirat, about five kilometers south of the boundary of Gaza City, in a densely populated area where the Gaza Strip is about six kilometers wide. The open area beside the shore is small and could accommodate only a small port that could transfer only a portion of the Palestinian cargo. The refugee camps surrounding the port make it difficult to build an access road, a parking lot for trucks, and so on. Nor is there room for a train terminal or for areas for storage and industry, and there is a problem of environmental risk (involving fuel containers and chemicals).

    Israeli security: An unsatisfactory solution, even if Hamas agrees to international supervision and allows Israel access for security cameras.

    Palestinian national aspirations: A satisfactory solution; in line with Israeli promises in all the agreements since the first Oslo agreement in 1993.

    Economic desirability: Because of the high cost of coastal infrastructure (breakwaters, canals, piers, etc.), building the port, even if it is a small port that can handle only part of the Palestinian cargo traffic, would necessitate large investments.

    Economic development: Limited because of the lack of space beside the port.

    Political likelihood: Hamas is the main supporter of this plan, which would provide employment to its backers and, particularly, customs revenues that currently go to the PA. The PA opposes the plan for fear of establishing the “state of Hamas” in Gaza. Israel strongly opposes it. Egypt would probably take the same stance as Israel and the PA.

    This stuff is complicated, especially when there’s a war on…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  60. 60.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @lowtechcyclist: Exactly. One of those explicitly sounds like war with Israel and another looks like a step in that direction as well. We won’t have the appetite for that. I don’t have the appetite for that and I consider the Israeli government one of the most potent evils on the planer.

  61. 61.

    Brachiator

    @New Deal democrat:

    I don’t know squat about the Houthis. As far as I knew, the question was “Houthis on First?”

    But in a random search I came across this:

    The Houthis aim to govern all of Yemen and support external movements against the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. Because of the Houthis’ ideological background, the conflict in Yemen is widely seen as a front of the Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy war.

    Does the US want to get sucked into this? And yeah, I would ask again, what would “victory” even mean?

  66. 66.

    Bill Arnold

    @The Kropenhagen Interpretation:

    I wonder how many more things fit in the blank.

    Well in excess of 50 kilotons (that was the estimate several weeks ago) used against the Gaza strip, and RDX is more damaging than TNT (kilotons are TNT equivalent). Current estimates are that the Hiroshima bomb was 16 kilotons, so roughly the explosive equivalent of 3(+) Hiroshima bombs, minimum. (No prompt radiation or fallout, but also mostly ground bursts.)
    (For those unclear on the concept, imagine Hiroshima-yield bombs over Tel Aviv-Yafo, West Jerusalem, and Haifa.)

  67. 67.

    Ironcity

    @Brachiator: Sort of like Barbary pirates situation except in those days we were an 8# gorilla and now we are an 800# gorilla.

    The U.S. negotiated and made it clear we would not play the ransom/tribute game, knocked some heads in Tripoli and the locals did their benefit/cost calculation and decided it was a good deal to make nice (sort of) and most of that stuff stopped.

    The current situation is not really directly comparable, I don’t think, but would like to be schooled.

  68. 68.

    HinTN

    @WaterGirl: You call it a war and there are international conventions that may be invoked. Bibi has steadfastly referred to it as an action. If “war” gains traction the frame shifts.

  70. 70.

    lowtechcyclist

    @New Deal democrat: ​

    Not exactly on point, but this is probably the best thread to note that the Israel-Hamas war has now widened into a naval U.S.-Houthis war:

    How exactly are they even the same war? Maybe the Houthis’ motivation has to do with the Gaza war, but what’s going on between the US Navy and the Houthis doesn’t affect the Gaza war or its principals in the least.

    ETA:

    Dan Guild asks a good question: if US air strikes do not stop the Houthis, what would be necessary to achieve “victory?

    This strikes me as a bullshit question.  It’s like talking about victory over Isis or Hezbollah or Hamas.  None of them will surrender, and you can’t destroy them without killing thousands of innocent people. There is no ‘victory.’

  71. 71.

    New Deal democrat

    @Brachiator:

    what would “victory” even mean?

    That’s the point. Here is the post cited by Dan Guild:

    @BallouxFrancois
    5h

    I worry Biden’s correct. current levels of airstrikes won’t deter the Houthis. The intensity required to do so is politically unacceptable, and stopping the bombing now would hand a propaganda win to the Houthis. So, the airstrikes have to continue at a low level, for the show…

    Given the above, how do we get to the point where the US decides the air strikes can stop?

  72. 72.

    Nukular Biskits

    Home after a long SAN->IAH-GPT flight.

    WRT to the topic, I would really like to see President Biden publicly and forcefully demand the Netanyahu government start scaling back offensive operations in Gaza and allow adequate (not token) humanitarian aid to come in.

    Some of you may disagree with me but the Israeli government has gone far beyond “protecting itself” and is engaging in collective punishment against all Gaza Palestinians.  And, while I won’t go so far as to call it a war crime (yet), Israel is definitely making it easy for it’s detractors/critics to make that case.

    Announcing a scaling back of US military aid would most definitely grab Bibi’s attention.

  73. 73.

    Geminid

    Israeli reporter Noga Tarnopolsky has been reporting on political events in Israel from an anti-Netanyahu point of view this evening she reposted fellow reporter Malrev Zonszeins account of War Cabinet Observer Gadi Eisenkotz’s interview this evening, including:

       Absolutely amazing. Eisenkot* directly contradicts the prime minister and defense minister, the people leading this war who have argued that only ground op and military force will bring the hostages [home]. He says tge inly way to get the hostages back alive now is through a deal.

    The hostages have become a major point of conflict now within Israel. Last Saturday night 120,000 Israelis demonstrated in Tel Sviv in a pouring rain, demanding that the government do everything it can to return them safely.

    Another large demonstration in Haifa had more direct calls for Netanyahu’s ouster. Demonstrations will be staged again this Saturday evening, and may well be even larger.

    * Gadi Eisenkott is Gantz’s partner and like Gantz, he is a former IDF Chief of Staff. He was made Observer to the War Cabinet under the agreement bringing Gantz’s party into the government on October 11. Eisenkot has since lost his son and a nephew in Israel’s Gaza offensive

  75. 75.

    Brachiator

    @New Deal democrat:

    So, the airstrikes have to continue at a low level, for the show…

    I’m not a military analyst, not even for pretend on the Internet.

    But doing shit “for the show” seems to me to be freaking idiotic.

  76. 76.

    Bill Arnold

    @The Kropenhagen Interpretation:

    So…probably a lot?

    Yeah. If you poke around you’ll find satellite before-and-afters of North Gaza, with sliders, that strongly resemble the total destruction of cities perpetrated by Russia using air and artillery bombardments. (Also, Grozny is an earlier example.)
    And maps analyzing before and after publicly available satellite synthetic aperture radar images of Gaza. (This has also been done for similar recent Russian destruction in Ukraine.)

  77. 77.

    Chris

    @Ironcity:

    Also, Tripoli wasn’t a war zone. It was a safe space from which pirates could raid other people’s shipping and to which they could go back to to safely enjoy their booty. Yemen has been in a sensationally nasty war for more than a decade with the Houthis so far managing to weather whatever their enemies throw at them.

    That makes for very different reactions when we take action against them. With the Tripolitanians, the response is “oh shit, this target fights back, let’s go find some easier prey.” With the Yemenis, the response is “oh dear, was that a missile? Well then, it must be a day ending in Y. Pass the hookah, will you?”

  78. 78.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @Brachiator: I raise this point with my sister who often complains that every recent President was a war criminal except maybe Jimmy Carter, it’s what’s expected of them. If our President doesn’t do awful shit, they will be pilloried in the media and then replaced by someone gleefully seeking to do evil shit.

    Our culture is fucked.

  79. 79.

    Geminid

    @Brachiator: The Palestinians are not capable of expelling Hamas. Their allies in the Gulf like the UAE and Saudi Arabia seem to expect Israel to do the job– if it can be done. Plan B seems to be to negotiate a deal whereby Hamas leaders and fighters are evacuated to Algeria, much as Arafat and the PLO were forced to evacuate from Beirut to Tunisia during Israel’s First Lebanon War. The Saudis brokered that deal also.

  81. 81.

    YY_Sima Qian

    In recent weeks, we are seeing a lot stories planted in MSM that the Biden Administration is running out of patience w/ Bibi, but what are the actions that the Administration is taking to put pressure on Israe, overt or covert, and what is the evidence that such pressure (if any) is having a meaningful effect on Israeli conduct in Gaza.

    1% of the Gaza population are already confirmed dead, 90+% are displaced, a quarter are living in famine conditions & all are severely food insecure. The IDF is systematically demolishing administrative buildings, libraries, residences, schools, universities in pacified areas, w/ soldiers live streaming the demolition. Many churches & mosques have been destroyed.

    By the time Israel’s winds down the “high intensity part” of its war, & Administrations officials plant more stories in MSM to take credit, there will be nothing of Gaza left for the remaining Gazans to inhabit.

    In the mean time, Bibi & the far right elements in his coalition sure enjoy rubbing the Biden Administration’s noses in their intransigence. Anyone expecting the USG to exact a price? We are a long way off from GHWB threatening US aid over Israeli settlement activities in the WB, or Clinton sending his campaign advisors to to help defeat Bibi (not that such brazen interference in another country’s internal affairs is advisable).

  82. 82.

    New Deal democrat

    @Brachiator:

    But doing shit “for the show” seems to me to be freaking idiotic.

    Agreed. We’re doing continued air strikes as part of the banana split.

    Again, how do we get to the point where the US decides the air strikes can stop?

  83. 83.

    wjca

    @lowtechcyclist: The U.S. provides $3B/year of aid to Israel. I don’t know with what frequency the money flows from here to there, but upcoming payments should be delayed until after this war ends.

    Does anyone know if the Israeli aid passed by Congress even allows aid to be suspended?  Not that it wouldn’t be a good idea, mind.  (Actually, it isn’t obvious that Israel actually needs that level of aid in the first place, regardless of the war.)

  84. 84.

    Brachiator

    @Ironcity:

    The current situation is not really directly comparable, I don’t think, but would like to be schooled.

    So would I. I knew that the Houthis were involved in a larger conflict, but I mainly knew about interference with shipping and disruptions to the supply chain. Now I am seeing stories about the wider Houthi conflicts and Iran and Pakistan taking shots at one another.

    What does it all mean?

    Where is this headed?

  85. 85.

    YY_Sima Qian

    The Houthis started by targeting shipping related to Israel (traveling to or from, Israeli owned, Israeli flagged, etc.), expanded to US flagged shipping after the U.S./UK strikes. They are not innocent or righteous actors, they are aligned w/ Iran, but they are not indiscriminate pirates, either.

    The US strikes will lead nowhere, not w/o boots on the ground, which there is no stomach for. There is no apparent strategy, only “demonstration of resolve” & “restoring deterrence” (transparent failures on its own terms) via military force, & potentially slow escalation.

  86. 86.

    wjca

    @New Deal democrat: Not exactly on point, but this is probably the best thread to note that the Israel-Hamas war has now widened into a naval U.S.-Houthis war

    Only because the US has been supporting the Saudi years-long war in Yemen.  Which was a bad idea, even without the threats to shipping that have occurred lately.

    Over and over it becomes clear that our relations with the Saudis are waaaay too close.  Treating them as on the hostile side of neutral would be far more sensible.  Not to mention accurate.  And, if it came to that, we could sieze their oil fields at far less cost than what being close to them costs us now.

  87. 87.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    The war machine’s auto-pilot functionality is a marvel. A thing of terror, but a marvel.

  88. 88.

    Brachiator

    @Geminid:

    The Palestinians are not capable of expelling Hamas. Their allies in the Gulf like the UAE and Saudi Arabia seem to expect Israel to do the job– if it can be done.

    Fair point. But I thought that Hamas was also supported by Iran. How do you get them to back any deal?

    I think I wonder how various parties were able to get the IRA and other belligerents to settle for the rough peace that now exists in Northern Ireland. The world needs something like that here.

  89. 89.

    hoppie

    @WaterGirl: Israeli politics echoes the US in being on a knife edge.  The Parliamentary structure makes it clearer there.  Bibi, like TFG, needs to be in power to avoid conviction, and he has masterfully exploited their system to do that.  Even the right-wing religious participation echoes.

    One can hope that the fever breaks.  I so hope.  But I am also thankful to be old.

  91. 91.

    Geminid

    @Brachiator: Iran also hit the Kurdish Regional Government capital of Erbil, Iraq three nights ago with up to 10 ballistic missiles. They claim they were aiming at an Israeli intelligence facility. The strike killed a well known Kurdish businessman, his 11 month-old daughter, his housekeeper and a business associate. It also injured his wife and son.

    The Kurdish news site Rudaw English has a lot of reporting on this event.

    The US military has a base at the Erbil airport but it was untouched. As many as 500 US soldiers are there as part of a mission that goes back to the first Gulf War.

  92. 92.

    Brachiator

     

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    The Houthis started by targeting shipping related to Israel (traveling to or from, Israeli owned, Israeli flagged, etc.), expanded to US flagged shipping after the U.S./UK strikes. They are not innocent or righteous actors, they are aligned w/ Iran, but they are not indiscriminate pirates, either.

    Thank you for this clarification.

  93. 93.

    Chris

    @wjca:

    Future historians will look at the twenty years of war in the Middle East that followed 9/11, combined with our utter refusal to at any point reconsider our relationship with the Saudis, as a massive sign of how broken American politics had become. Even before Trump and Russia, the fact that even something like 9/11 couldn’t shock the system into turning against hostile foreigners as long as they were paid up with the right people says everything about how corrupt the system has become.

  94. 94.

    VFX Lurker

    @YY_Sima Qian: In the mean time, Bibi & the far right elements in his coalition sure enjoy rubbing the Biden Administration’s noses in their intransigence. Anyone expecting the USG to exact a price? We are a long way off from GHWB threatening US aid over Israeli settlement activities in the WB, or Clinton sending his campaign advisors to to help defeat Bibi (not that such brazen interference in another country’s internal affairs is advisable).

    Good question.

  95. 95.

    Geminid

    @Brachiator: None of the Arab leaders want Iran to have anything to do with Gaza, except maybe Bashar Assad of Syria. That’s one reason they all want Hamas neutralized if not eliminated outright.

    There is no positive reason for this Iranian regime to be take a role in a long-running problem 800 miles from Iran. The sooner the Iranian people can expel the gang of murderers running the Islamic Republic, the better off everyone in the region will be.

  96. 96.

    p.a.

    The slaughter won’t stop because of anything the US does because the US won’t do anything besides cluck with disapproval.  Wash rinse repeat.

    The slaughter will only stop when Israeli politics defeats Bibi’s warmongering, or Bibi achieves his aim of turning Gaza into a no-mans’-land for Israeli settlers to colonize.  For Netanyahu it’s just a nice little side-plate that US policy sows division among Dems before an election whilethe US opposition party consists of Christo-fascio-zionists.

  97. 97.

    hoppie

    @Chris: The fact that Shrub & Cheney avoided responsibility for 9-11 is a stain on our history, an indictment of the press, and a sure sign that your deity of choice is at least indifferent to us.

  98. 98.

    cain

    @Chacal Charles Calthrop:

     Israel is claiming that humanitarian supplies can’t be allowed in unless Israel first inspects them because otherwise the aide will be full of supplies for Hamas but even Israel can’t claim that the US is secretly smuggling weapons to Hamas.

    Their proxies with the GOP parties will though. Israel has plenty of buttons to push within the U.S. specifically the GOP and by extension the evangelicals. They can kick up a lot of unfounded accusations.

    Expect Bibi to also start looking at how to interfere with the U.S. elections.

    It’s time to put this man in his place. Simply act, and then see where the fallout goes. Airlift and provide food supplies. Make sure every country in the EU is also involved. Let’s see how it looks when the food is provided by a multi-ethnic, multi-country, group of people.

     

  99. 99.

    Geminid

    @wjca: One thing to consider here is that since October 7, the US has supplied Israel with much more than the $3.8 billion in annual military aid agreed to during Obama’s second term. The $14 billion in military aid Biden is asking for in the Supplemental Appropriation may not even cover what we’ve already airlifted and shipped.

    Israel could never have maintained the intense tempo of this campaign without that resupply. That is probably our most important source of leverage, if and when we choose to use it.

  100. 100.

    Librarian

    Thank you, @WaterGirl for this post. For a while I’ve thought that somebody should do a regular post on the Middle East similar to what Adam does for Ukraine, whether it’s Adam, you or somebody else, or at least something semi-regular.

  102. 102.

    cain

    @The Kropenhagen Interpretation:

    Just keep having an armed guard for the ships with a shoot on sight mentality if drones identify them as hostile. I bet it’s even cheaper to do it that way.

    Also, just change the routes as well.

    Everything is meant to create a provocation. It’s not worth responding to it.

  103. 103.

    cain

    @Geminid:

    But I don’t think Netanyahu will hold the premiership much longer anyway. He will likely be found guilty as a private citizen.

    This man has held on for quite some time. He’s a survivor. He’s going to keep holding on – I think it will be a health problem or old age that is going to finally get him.

  105. 105.

    brantl

    @Marc: Nobody’s going to get anywhere negotiating with Bibi; his staying out of jail demands the continuation of the war. Otherwise, his crooked ass would be in jail.

  106. 106.

    wjca

    @Ksmiami: Mike Johnson is a slug. He needs to be arrested.

    Hey, he got the CR done.

    Probably, it gets him booted as Speaker — I hear the RWNJs are flipping out.  And probably his (eventual) replacenent manages to be worse.  No idea how.  But while my imagination can’t manage a detailed prediction, the teack record suggests that they will contrive somehow.  Sadly, he is unlikely to be the bottom of the barrel.

  108. 108.

    Another Scott

    @YY_Sima Qian: I hear echos of the Clinton/Saddam days. The US is more than capable of spending $1-2-few-B a month to blow stuff up on the ground without putting bootsonaground or working for regime change.

    We don’t have to blow everything up to achieve our policy goals (punishing those who try to interfere with free navigation in international waters, in this case).

    FWIW.

    We’ll see.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  110. 110.

    wjca

    @Chris: Future historians will look at the twenty years of war in the Middle East that followed 9/11, combined with our utter refusal to at any point reconsider our relationship with the Saudis, as a massive sign of how broken American politics had become.

    I can see a book, perhaps even a PhD thesis, on the theme of:

    When we prepared to invade Afghanistan, Iran offered us free passage for supplies thru its territory.**  Suppose we had accepted, instead of paying Pakistan huge sums to cross their territory.  Big chunks of which ISI used to subsidize the Taliban that we were fighting.

    Sure, it would have lost us our alliance of (in)convenience with the Saudis.  But if we have to deal with a theocracy (both Saudi Arabia and Iran are fundamentalist theocracies), better to pick the one whose people have been civilized for millennia.

    ** The Shrub administration didn’t deign to reply.

  111. 111.

    hotshoe

    @Brachiator: ​ No, they actually are indiscriminate pirates.

    They may claim that they are targeting Israeli ships — but that is just their bullshit. The majority of the ships targeted have no ownership ties to Israel and were not carrying freight to or from Israel.

    US and EU forces are defending the international right of merchant shipping to transit the Red Sea and not to be forced by the Iranian-backed terrorists into expensive, time-consuming detour around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope.

    Currently, France, Italy, and India have naval vessels in the region in coalition with the US to safeguard shipping from the Houthi pirate attacks.​

  113. 113.

    wjca

    @Geminid: The sooner the Iranian Saudi people can expel the gang of murderers running the Islamic Republic Saudi Arabia the better off everyone in the region will be.

    Doesn’t quite count as FTFY.  But it’s at least equally true.

  114. 114.

    Odie Hugh Manatee

    @Dan B:

    I’m not. They are taking cues from Hair Furor and his party that Ukraine, their government and criminals there are tied up with “The Biden Crime Family”. I see comments on conservative loaded hobby sites (think cars, computers and such) about Zelinsky’s (sp) wife and her endless shopping trips that we are funding and other bugfuck nuts propaganda that they have swallowed. The Republican party and that orange criminal that leads it are totally in with Russia because they are fucking stupid and gleefully doing Putin’s bidding in an effort to overthrow our government and take it all for themselves.

    The “Party of Reagan” is now the Party of Putin. The Republican/Trump Party  is an enemy of democracy and freedom.

  116. 116.

    Bill Arnold

    @Sally:

    This is all part of getting tfig reelected.

    Disagree. BN is mainly concerned about the well-being of BN. US politics are an indirect and unreliable means of reinforcing his well-being; he is facing a lot (a solid majority) of domestic Israeli loathing as well.
    Also, I am (near-)certain that he and others have been read the riot act about political interference in the USA by the Biden administration. Maybe not bluntly, but the Israelis understand (and themselves use) veiled messaging.

  117. 117.

    Chris

    @wjca:

    It’s less a matter of “civilized for millennia,” and more 1) their theocracy is less extreme than the Saudis, 2) they have more substantial democratic institutions (even if they’re still not a democracy), 3) they have more of a history of trying to become a democracy (by which I mean any history at all), and oh yes, 4) they’re not the ones whose proxies attacked us on 9/11, or have posed the biggest threat to us since.

  118. 118.

    Geminid

    @cain: I have followed Netanyahu’s career too. I am also following the country’s politics through Israeli sources and it seems like the pressure on the PM has been building since the New Year, and especially in the last few days.

    Netanyahu is trying rebuild his credibility and political position, and that was what today’s press conference was about. I don’t think it will help because just about everybody in Israel knows that Netanyahu is a liar. He cannot seperate his own interests from those of his nation. That has been the case ever since he formed this government in December of 2022, and this was a major cause of the debacle of October 7 and Israelis know it.

    So I do not think Netanyahu will be Prime Minister 4 months from now. He might not make it to March.

  119. 119.

    bookworm1398

    When France declined to join the anti-Houthi coalition, the US should have known it was a bad idea.

  120. 120.

    Geminid

    @brantl: Like I said at #36, this war is not keeping Netanyahu out of prison. His trial has been creeping along since April of 2021  and even before the October 7 it wasn’t expected to finish before this summer. If and when he’s convicted, the appeals are expected to take a year and probably more.

  123. 123.

    WaterGirl

    @wjca: Not possible to find anyone worse.  All the Rs today are beyond awful, but his religious fervor and his desire to  blur  eliminate the line between church and state scares the hell out of me.

    Every R now is complicit with the MAGAs.  One or two “normal” republicans could scrap a vote or turn it in the right direction.  But now we only have “used to be normal” Republicans because they have all signed on to the crazy.

    Two more previously normal Rs should resign right now and they could stop this awfulness right now.

  126. 126.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Another Scott: If the U.S.’ objective is suppressing the Houthis’ anti-shipping capability enough to allow a substantial return to normal traffic through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, I don’t think air strikes will make much of a dent. The Houthi’s’ do not need to consistently hit their targets, just regularly take pot shots.

    There is a potential for political solution here. The substantial closure of the Red Sea significantly affect Chinese & Indian exports to Europe, & thus is in neither’s interest. Both have some pull w/ Iran, the PRC more so. However, neither the PRC nor India will stick their necks out as long as Israel’s war in Gaza continues, & the Houthis are ostensibly acting on behalf of the Gazans. The PRC especially has calculated that Gaza has become a global wedge issue, & its interests for now lie w/ closing ranks w/ the predominant sentiments in the Arab, Muslim & Global South countries.

  127. 127.

    hotshoe

    @Another Scott: ​
     

    The US is more than capable of spending $1-2-few-B a month to blow stuff up on the ground without putting bootsonaground or working for regime change.

    True.

    The Houthis have been randomly aggravating western governments for years by attacking shipping in the Gulf of Aden/Red Sea. It wasn’t ignored; there was an international task force to “improve maritime security in the region” — but the shaky truce in Yemen would dissuade western powers from targeting the aggressor’s onshore facilities. Before Nov/Dec 2023, the relatively-few commercial vessels attacked didn’t seem worth the risk of triggering a wider conflict with Iran.

    But that was before the Houthis escalated with multiple drone and missile attacks on international shipping, including missiles which hit a Norwegian oil tanker, and the attempted boarding/hijacking of Maersk Hangzhou. Ten of the failed pirates died when their escape boats were sunk.

    Now it seems the cheapest and easiest way — with the least possible loss of human life — to discourage more piracy is to blow up the weapons depots which the Houthis are using for their attacks. It’s not “shock and awe”. It’s not the IDF blowing up hospitals alleging that terrorists use civilians as shields. No one is bombing the Yemeni people. Only targeting missile bases.

    As far as I know, no one has claimed that any civilians were killed by the US/British strikes against the Houthi bases; Houthis made a poster of seven of their “martyred” fighters. Well, okay then.

    Well, okay, seven less men who intend to board a container ship and kidnap/kill innocent Malaysian mariners.

  128. 128.

    cain

    @Geminid: So I do not think Netanyahu will be Prime Minister 4 months from now. He might not make it to March.

    Let’s hope because Israel really needs new leadership.

  129. 129.

    Chris

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    As near as I can tell, the objective of the U.S, meaning the Biden administration, is “I can’t do nothing because that would cost me too many votes among people who think I’m being a pussy, but I also can’t put boots on the ground or do anything else that’s much more comprehensive than air strikes because that would cost me too many votes among people who think I’m being a war criminal, not to mention that Republicans in Congress would never allow any major military operation to go forward because they care too much about being able to accuse me of not doing enough, and also the last thing we need is another open-ended military commitment that goes on for twenty years to little point or purpose.  Air strikes allow me to say that I’m doing something, but it’s still something that’s restrained and proportional enough that it won’t upset too many people.  Or so I hope.”

  130. 130.

    Geminid

    Noga Tarnopolsky on Netanyahu’s news conference:

      L’Ètat cest moi is literal for King Bibi. “The day after Netanyahu,” he said tonight, “is the day after for most Israeli citizens. The day after Netanyahu means a Palestinian state,” He will never allow a Palestinian state, he says, adding “what can you do.”

    And on the Biden administration’s reaction:

       Following Netanyahu’s NO, NO, NO, press conference, the White House says: “The U.S. will not stop working towards a two-state solution; there will be a post-war Gaza and no occupation of Gaza.”

     

    That was the immediate reaction. I expect that the President and/or administration officials will expand upon this tomorrow.

    But I do not expect Biden to publically and explicitly call for Netanyahu’s ouster. For one thing, that would likely play into Netanyahu’s hands. For another, Netanyahu’s Israeli opponents don’t want it. They think it’s better that Israelis knock Netanyahu out, and they believe they can do it sooner rather than later.

  132. 132.

    hotshoe

    @YY_Sima Qian: ​

    If the U.S.’ objective is suppressing the Houthis’ anti-shipping capability enough to allow a substantial return to normal traffic through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, I don’t think air strikes will make much of a dent. The Houthi’s’ do not need to consistently hit their targets, just regularly take pot shots.

    The Houthis had been making random occasional attacks on shipping for years and it was not okay, but was within the acceptable level of marine risk. Acceptable until they actually hit an oil tanker with a missile in December.

    According to the figures I saw today, there is a half “return to normal” as five of the largest cargo companies (although not including Shell oil tankers) have resumed transit through the Suez Canal/Red Sea.

    I don’t see any direct quote crediting this change to the US/Britain strikes against Houthi weapons bases, but what else could explain the companies’ renewed courage?

    As we destroy a sufficient level of the Houthi weapons to bring their attack ability back down to “not consistent”, that will suffice to reassure the owners that cheaper faster shipping via Red Sea is worth a small risk compared to more expensive slow route around Africa.​

  133. 133.

    hotshoe

    @bookworm1398:

    France has a naval vessel in the region which is not officially part of Operation Prosperity Guardian but which is nonetheless active in protecting international shipping there.

    So, not such a bad idea after all.

  134. 134.

    Geminid

     

     

    @hotshoe: There’s still an multilateral anti-piracy naval force operating in that area. I forget its acronym, but I read yesterday that Turkiye’s National Assembly reauthorized its Navy’s participation for another year. But like France, Turkiye is staying clear of the operation directed at the Houthis. They have people closer to home to bomb.

  135. 135.

    Geminid

    @db11: One telling fact in that article is that Likud currently has 18 ministers in this government. Likud has 32 MKs total. I think the government has 30 cabinet positions for 64 coalition Knesset members.

    This is for a country of 9 1/2 million people. The US manages to run a nation of 330 million with about ten cabinet officers. I guess the states do a lot but still, Joe Biden’s operation is pretty lean compared to Benjamin Netanyahu’s.

    Many of these Israeli ministers run what could be called “pop-up” ministries that don’t have a real job but still have a staff and a budget. These are basically patronage plums, and their quantity is an indication of the lengths Netanyahu had to go to in order to form this rotten government.

  136. 136.

    wjca

    @Chris:

    I think “civilized for millennia” does make a difference.  Vs being barely a couple of generations from nomadic camel herders.  The Saudis just have no experience that would prepare them for the modern world.  As soon as the oil runs out (or gets taken away), they’ve got nothing that could possibly sustain them.

    OK, the elites may have enough wealth stashed in the West to be idle rich parasites for a while.  But otherwise?  Nada.

  137. 137.

    wjca

    @WaterGirl: Not possible to find anyone worse.  All the Rs today are beyond awful, but his religious fervor and his desire to  blur  eliminate the line between church and state scares the hell out of me.

    I really, really hope you are right.  But they’ve managed nasty surprises too many times for me to be confident.

  138. 138.

    Geminid

    @Chris: Another way of looking at this is that the Islamic Republic is not really Persian at all, with its roots in the Arabian peninisula and not Persia; an intrusion of a backwards, fanatical culture of a type the Persians left behind long before Cyrus founded the Persian-Median empire. I’ve seen plenty of Iranians both inside and outside the country say this.

  139. 139.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: More on the Gadi Eisenkot interview, from former US Ambassador to Israel Martin Indyk:

       Wow! Eisenkott lays down the gauntlet to Netanyahu: “Israel is a democratic state that needs to ask itself after such a grave event how it continues from here with a leadership that has failed so completely.

    An earlier reaction from Indyk:

       Eisenkot denounces Netanyahu on prime time tv. Could this be the trigger for a government upheaval?

  140. 140.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @hotshoe: Considering what Ikraine has managed to do against the Russian Black Sea Fleet, I do not see how air power alone will sufficiently suppress/degrade the Houthi’s’ ability to threaten the lumbering civilian shipping in the confined spaces of the Red Sea. The Houthis are a de facto state actor behaving as such, they are not the Somali pirates.

  141. 141.

    Geminid

    @YY_Sima Qian: Ukraine has sea drones, and I don’t think Iran can supply many of those to the Houthis. Also, the US-led naval task force is probably more capable of dealing with them than the Russian navy.

    There is still the air defense problem. Iran has more missiles and drones it can send, and the US can only destroy a portion of them before they are launched or in the air.

    This problem will probably persist until the war in Gaza is resolved. Then the problem could be a renewal of war in Yemen. Reports are that the Houthi’s conflict with Israel and the US has supercharged their recruiting. With fresh manpower, the Houthis might decide to pick up where they left off last year when they agreed to the ceasefire.

  142. 142.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid: The Houthis’ goal is not to sink a significant percentage of the civilian shipping through the Red Sea, it’s just to continue to deter most of the traffic & cause economic pain to Israel & Europe.

    Furthermore, it does not take particularly sophisticated sea drones to go after tankers & container ships. These civilian ships are not maneuverable, have little situations awareness, & next to no self-defense capabilities. The Bad-el-Mandeb is also a much more confined space than even just the norther half of Black Sea, distance to target is much shorter.

    Good points about potentially reopening of the Yemeni Civil War. Yet another 2nd/3rd order ripple w/ potentially devastating consequences. One hopes that the Gulf States-Iran détente holds, which might help prevent a conflagration in Yemen from flaring up again, but I do not believe the Houthis are entirely Iranians’ to command.

  145. 145.

    Paul in KY

    @Geminid: The Palestinians are ‘capable’. If all non-Hamas Palestinians just started killing every Hamas person they saw/found, they’d all be dead in a couple of days (sorta like what the Parthians did to the Romans way back when). So they technically could, they just don’t want to do that drastic action for whatever reasons (good or bad) that they have.

Comments are closed.