Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

There are consequences to being an arrogant, sullen prick.

Roe isn’t about choice, it’s about freedom.

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

Live so that if you miss a day of work people aren’t hoping you’re dead.

I conferred with the team and they all agree – still not tired of winning!

Balloon Juice has never been a refuge for the linguistically delicate.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

If you thought you’d already seen people saying the stupidest things possible on the internet, prepare yourselves.

There are some who say that there are too many strawmen arguments on this blog.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

“Loving your country does not mean lying about it’s history.”

Hot air and ill-informed banter

I also would like a pony to improve my balloon juice experience.

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

The words do not have to be perfect.

These days, even the boring Republicans are nuts.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

“The defense has a certain level of trust in defendant that the government does not.”

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

Spilling the end game before they can coat it in frankl luntz-approved dogwhistles.

The new republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

You are here: Home / Economics / C.R.E.A.M. / Thursday Morning Open Thread: Halfway to Spring, Practically

Thursday Morning Open Thread: Halfway to Spring, Practically

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Technically, the cross-quarter holiday between the winter solstice and the spring equinox is February 2nd (that’s why Groundhog Day), but sometimes everybody just needs an excuse for a day off. (No MLK Day in Ireland.) And the confusion between an ancient pagan deity and a (probably) historical saint is very, very culturally Irish… never let a mingy grey ‘truth’ stand in the way of a bold brilliant STORY!

Per the Associated Press, “Who was St. Brigid and why is she inspiring many 1,500 years after her death?”:

Devotees of St. Brigid celebrated her Sunday with the return of a relic associated with the so-called matron saint of Ireland. The festivities came about a millennium after her remains were removed from the town of Kildare, where she founded a prestigious abbey and inspired a host of colorful, miracle-filled legends.

The celebration in her hometown, southwest of Dublin, is part of Brigid 1500 — a series of observances across the world centered around the saint’s feast day of Feb. 1, marking the 1,500th anniversary of her death around the year 524.

In a sense, Brigid is on a roll. The commemorations come a year after Ireland began honoring her with an annual public holiday — the first Irish woman to be recognized with one.

While St. Patrick has long been the saint most identified with Ireland, Brigid has gained a growing following in the 21st century. Devotees draw inspiration from Brigid the saint — and from Brigid the ancient pagan goddess, whose name and attributes she shares — as emblematic of feminine spirituality and empowerment. This comes amid growing disenchantment with the patriarchal and historically dominant Catholic Church…

Several events are being organized this week by Solas Bhride, Irish for “Light of Brigid,” including a noontime “Pause for Peace” on Thursday. Thousands of students plan to mark the pause by making a human formation of a large St. Brigid’s Cross, shaped by a square with four symmetrical arms.

Others around the world are joining in the pause — a minute’s silence at noon local time — said Brigidine Sister Rita Minehan, one of the founders of Solas Bhride.

“We are sending out a message that we actively oppose warfare in our world and the proliferation of arms,” she said. “It’s rather frightening what’s happening in our world. It’s sorely in need of peace, and Brigid was renowned as a peacemaker.”

The group Herstory, which uses arts and education to promote female role models, plans events around Ireland on the holiday and days afterward. These include lightshows in which artistic depictions of Brigid are projected onto historic landmarks.

Elsewhere worldwide, Irish-heritage groups plan to mark the day with cultural events. Churches plan Masses in honor of the saint, while Wiccan and other pagan groups plan meditations and other ceremonies in honor of the goddess.

Speaking of halfway to Spring…


 

Also in the realm of pious hopes, the folks whose plan to extend their weekend walk off their jobs the day after MLK Day was foiled by a snow day have a new tactic, if we can believe the Daily Mail:

Dozens of US government workers will stage a one-day hunger strike to protest the Biden’s administration support for Israel amid the war with Hamas.

Members of Feds United for Peace told The Guardian that employees from over two dozen government agencies – including the Departments of Defense and State – plan on a day of fasting on Thursday.

The officials participating will show up at work either dressed in black or wearing ‘keffiyeh scarves or other symbols of Palestinian solidarity.’

They said they are protesting ‘starvation as a weapon of war by intentionally withholding food from entering Gaza,’ where more than 26,000 people, mostly civilians, have been killed since the war began, according to the Health Ministry in the Hamas-ruled territory.

The activist federal employees say their goal is to force a conversation in their offices. They claim many federal employees support a ceasefire but are scared of speaking out for fear of retribution…

Feds United for Peace is the same group that organized a walk-out they called a ‘Day of Mourning’ earlier this month to protest the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The walk-out never happened, according to Al Jazeera, and the group instead took a collective leave from their jobs to mark 100 days of the Israel-Hamas war on January 16.

“It was never designed as a walkout. It was designed as a day of mourning. And employees took different types of leave for this day of mourning and used it in different ways,’ one of the organizers told the Qatari state media outlet…

Reader Interactions

149Comments

  1. 1.

    Kay

    “Let’s be honest, this is a good economy”

    lol

    Me for the last 4 years to LITERALLY anyone who would listen 🙂

  4. 4.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    @Kay: The tone of that “let’s be honest” is telling. At the least, he knows others have been denying the health of the economy. At the worst, he’s been reluctant to admit it himself.

  5. 5.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    As someone who worked for Club Fed for 38.5 years, that’s a first in terms of a gubmint employee protest with an overt political message.

    Sure, it’s simply “dozens” and for all I know “dozens” have done something like this at some point in the last 40 years but damn if it ever got any press assuming something even this mild ever occurred.

  6. 6.

    Elizabelle

    And, if you followed the Bezos WaPost or FTF NY Times, this economy is ALL Jerome Powell.

    No one else implicated in our having a “good economy.”

  8. 8.

    Betty

    As some economists have noted, keeping the interest rate high is having an inflationary effect by raising the cost of borrowing.  I hope Powell soon acknowledges this.

  9. 9.

    Kay

    @Baud:

    Remember when they would run stories on lower income families and just not mention the expanded child tax credit?

    Deceptive or innumerate- pick one

  16. 16.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    @NotMax:

    Almost two years ago, a group of RWNJ truckers were gonna hose up traffic in DC by forming a phalanx of vehicles.

    It was hysterical, they got separated in short order by standard traffic.  As a wag put it on twitter:

    The Beltway REMAINS UNDEFEATED!!!!!!

    That was another instance of pathetic actions by right wingers in trucks.

  18. 18.

    Kay

    Biden actually put in policy to switch from a trickle down economy to a bottom up economy and no one on the Left noticed because they were obsessed with student loans.

    Biggest missed opportunity I can recall in politics. They blew it. Knuckleheads.

  19. 19.

    p.a.

    About time for another NYT weekend in-depth dive into the economic dysfunction troubling The Hampton’s.  Just can’t find good help anymore…

  22. 22.

    gene108

    @Kay:

    Deceptive or innumerate- pick one

    Innumerate. Journalists pick journalism as a career to avoid math and subjects that use math, like economics.

  28. 28.

    catclub

    @gene108:  And the point of being an economist on TV is to skip numbers and math and go to ‘vibes’ and feelings and uncertainty.

     

    Whenever they say uncertainty – about the fucking future which no one knows – is high, ask when it was not.

  29. 29.

    Kay

    When Biden gets back in we can repeal the Trump tax cuts and get back on responsible footing on the revenue side – and also undo Trump’s single accomplishment – besides the low quality judges.

  32. 32.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @catclub: Whenever they say uncertainty – about the fucking future which no one knows – is high, ask when it was not.

    Easy, whenever a Republican was in the WH pushing for tax cuts. Tax cuts always make them feel better.

  33. 33.

    Chief Oshkosh

    @Betty:

    As some economists have noted, keeping the interest rate high is having an inflationary effect by raising the cost of borrowing. I hope Powell soon acknowledges this.

    Of course he won’t. Why would he? To the degree that Powell’s plodding pains people, he’ll be happy to let Biden take the heat.

    I’m probably off on this, but Powell almost seems to be wistful about his loss of power. If Biden’s bottom-up-economy continues to do well, what roll does Powell play? Just about anything he does would tend to fuck things up if they’re going along fine otherwise.

  35. 35.

    catclub

    @Kay: no one on the Left noticed because they were obsessed with student loans.

     

    You could always tell how old Cokie Roberts’ and Susan Stamberg’s kids were by the reporting on NPR. I would say that right now there are NPR staffers who have kids filling out the FAFSA.  I have neither seen nor heard ANY reporting on that except at NPR.

  37. 37.

    Scout211

    Long read, but there is very good interview of Roberta Kaplan this morning in Politico Magazine.  

    She discusses the E. Jean Carroll case, her legal strategy and how she and her co-counsel won the case.  Trump basically lost his own case by acting like a spoiled child throughout the deposition and the trial.

    There are too many excellent snippets but here is one:

    But you’re absolutely right, and it really goes to his deposition, too. His misbehavior at the deposition in Carroll — the way that he insulted E. Jean, the way that he insulted me. The way he said to me that I wasn’t really his type, either, and talked about suing me — “very strongly” is what I think he said.

    That, combined with how he acted in the trial — which was speaking under his breath, shaking his head, getting up, as everyone knows, about eight or nine minutes into my closing argument. That conduct …

    We’re good lawyers. I’m not saying that the people on our team weren’t good lawyers. And E. Jean was an amazing plaintiff. But the single most important thing that convicted Donald Trump — both from his deposition and from the trial — is Donald Trump’s own behavior.

    It wasn’t just being nasty to me in the deposition. He basically said about the Access Hollywood tape, “Unfortunately, or fortunately, stars have been able to get away with that for millions of years.”
    He literally said that. Think about that. In a case in which he was accused of sexual assault!

    It’s the same concept. It’s this concept that he’s just lived his life — and he can’t seem to get around it — based on the assumption that the rules that apply to everyone else don’t apply to him.

    At trial, it was even more dramatic because essentially, it was a trial on damages only. Our whole thesis was, “This is someone who acts like a bully and who can’t and won’t follow the rules.” So one would think that when you’re in the courtroom with the jury — acting like a bully and not following the courtroom rules as instructed by the judge — that would be a bad strategy.

    Judge Kaplan said to him at one point, “You obviously can’t control yourself.”

    I would think — if I were on the jury and I saw this behavior, given the nature of the case — the damages number would be going up in my head in real-time.

    Yeah. Oh, there’s no question.

    When he left during [my closing] — I didn’t see it happen because I was facing the other way — but when Judge Kaplan announced that he’d left the courtroom, I thought to myself, “Okay, that’s another $10 million.”

  40. 40.

    Baud

    One reason political labels are confusing is because we’re always mixing up two different things: (1) policy goals and (2) approach to politics.

    Our divisions are more often about (2) than (1).

  41. 41.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    @Scout211:

    Trump basically lost his own case by acting like a spoiled child throughout the deposition and the trial.

    Back in my USMC Command & Staff College days, we’d call that conclusion “A Blinding Flash Of The Obvious.”

  43. 43.

    Jeffro

    @Kay:

    “Let’s be honest, this is a good economy”

    lol

    Me for the last 4 years to LITERALLY anyone who would listen 🙂

    Ha! (and high-five)

    I have been taking verbal victory laps for a year now, much to Mrs. Fro’s chagrin.  =)

  44. 44.

    Jeffro

    I know Taylor Swift’s “Eras” tour is probably responsible for our good economy (it’s certainly not Biden ;)

    but maybe the extra $160M in extra spending by the Great DeSantis Flameout helped, too!

    It cost more than $160 million for Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida to come in second place in a single nominating contest.

    That astounding sum makes Mr. DeSantis’s failed presidential bid among the most expensive in modern Republican primary elections. But the details of where the money went, laid out in filings to the Federal Election Commission on Wednesday, show just how free-spending Mr. DeSantis and his allied super PACs were.

    All for 23,420 votes in Iowa.

    The bulk of the money — $130 million — was spent by Never Back Down*. The super PAC was supposed to be Mr. DeSantis’s secret weapon in his quest to take down former President Donald J. Trump, including through an ambitious canvassing operation built to knock on the doors of DeSantis supporters as many as five times. His campaign spent an additional $28 million.

    The enormously costly effort produced negligible results, and Mr. DeSantis decided to drop out before the New Hampshire primary and endorse Mr. Trump.

    *which did, in fact, back down.  hard.

    LOLOLOLOL

  45. 45.

    Baud

    @Kay:

    One of the hard lessons I learned in real life is that, for some people, there was nothing I could do to earn their trust and respect.

    I think that reflects our political environment as well.  Nothing we can do except believe in ourselves and keep pushing forward.

  46. 46.

    Kay

    @lowtechcyclist:

    I don’t consider myself a Lefty. I’m a liberal Democrat – a Party person. Fairly conventional in my views except for immigration and criminal justice, where I am on the (actual) Left.

    I don’t think most BJers are Lefties either. Liberals or centrist Democrats, I think, if I had to label.

  47. 47.

    New Deal democrat

    @Chief Oshkosh:

    Yes, the economy is good *now,* but Fed interest rates tend to have their maximum impact 1 year or more later. We didn’t get that last year because the un-kinking of the pandemic related supply bottlenecks, and the decline in gas prices from $5 to $3 overwhelmed everything else.

    But the “real” interest rate (i.e., the % by with the Fed funds exceeds CPI) is now over 2%, a 15 year high. This will continue to have a dampening effect on the economy, even as the supply-sided stimulus is over.

    Many people (including me!) have criticized the Fed because it’s 2% inflation “target” appeared to be asymmetrical, i.e., 1% inflation was OK, but 3% inflation was a no-no. Powell appears to have gone back to this notion. There is no reason to wait to be sure that inflation is going to remain at 2% before lowering rates, if you weren’t concerned about inflation remaining under 2% for years.

    This is unfortunately typical for the Fed. It keeps rates high until something breaks. And at the moment I am concerned that the amount of withholding tax paid on wages and salaries is only up about 1% YoY. In fact California just reported that in January they were *down* -1% YoY (probably because of Silicon Valley layoffs).

    The Fed waited too long to raise rates, and now I am afraid that they are going to wait too long to lower them as well.

  50. 50.

    catclub

    @Chief Oshkosh: As some economists have noted, keeping the interest rate high is having an inflationary effect by raising the cost of borrowing.

     

    and I would say they are idiots. The overwhelming effect of higher borrowing costs is reducing demand for borrowing and therefore reducing economic activity. It is like saying that the economic activity of building new factories is deflationary because it will — eventually – lower prices.

  51. 51.

    Baud

    @Delk:

    Compare and contrast with Dems working with Trump on COVID relief.

    If voters want good, they have to support good.

  55. 55.

    Kay

    @Delk:

    The whole pro Trump push by media and corporate leaders is about those tax cuts.

    theyd sell their mothers to keep that massive unearned gift Trump gave them. Grassley just said it out loud.

  56. 56.

    catclub

    @New Deal democrat: The Fed waited too long to raise rates, and now I am afraid that they are going to wait too long to lower them as well.

     

    True. Luckily in terms of voters, the economy in april and may – which will probably still be very good,  is what affects  voting.

    There are NO signs in employment of a recession coming.  Employment is all time great.  The silicon valley job losses are tiny compared to the whole economy.

    But much more heavily reported.

    If a recession started on Oct 15 nobody would notice by election day.

  57. 57.

    catclub

    @Baud: Starting with Rush Limbaugh saying he wanted Obama to fail, and then Mitch McConnell saying the same thing, the media has not emphasized this rule or ruin attitude of the GOP to government and the economy.

     

    When Mitch McConnell says it the next quetion must be: “So if it is a choice between passing a bill that is good for the US economy and killing it to avoid giving Biden a ‘win’  you will choose to kill it?”

  59. 59.

    Kay

    @catclub:

    “but much more heavily reported”

    exactly. It’s infuriating though – 20 years of media moaning about the rust belt and manufacturing comes back with a damn ROAR and no one notices.

    I feel like a crazy person – “look! Look at the building boom! Tight labor market! Resurgence of labor leverage!”

    no one wants my good news about the rust belt. They prefer poverty porn and arty photos of abandoned Detroit. Enrages me. They don’t want us to succeed. They prefer us downtrodden.

  60. 60.

    New Deal democrat

    @catclub:

    There are NO signs in employment of a recession coming.

    I am going to quibble with this. Partly because employment is a coincident indicator of recession, so it doesn’t give warning. Although I certainly agree that at the moment most signs in employment are positive, and there is no sign in layoffs or initial jobless claims of anything happening imminently.

    But the anemic growth in tax withholding payments typically *is* a sign of recession. In fact according to the tax withholding tracker, in the past such an anemic increase has almost always only happened during recessions.

    ETA: Link —> https://www.dailyjobsupdate.com

  61. 61.

    Baud

    @catclub:

    A lot of people, and many in the media, don’t really like Republicans, but they have an abject fear of what Dems will do if left to our own devices.

    Not unreasonable in itself. No party should be immune from political accountability. But as with things like crime panic, the fear has been so great that they simply have ignored what the GOP has become.

  63. 63.

    Scout211

    From Politico,a round up of Trump’s money problems.

    Donald Trump’s political operation spent millions more than it took in over the past year due, in part, to massive legal costs incurred by the former president.

    Two of Donald Trump’s political action committees spent an astonishing $29 million in legal consulting and legal fees in the second half of last year, leaving only $5 million in his leadership PAC’s coffers.

    The expenditures provide a stark illustration of how Trump’s courtroom issues have not just defined his campaign but begun to overwhelm it. In total, the former president spent roughly $50 million in donor funds on legal expenses over the course of 2023.

    All told his web of committees, in aggregate, spent roughly $210 million during the 2023 calendar year while raising a bit shy of $200 million over the same period, a POLITICO analysis of campaign finance filings found. The political operation still entered 2024 with a surplus due to strong fundraising in prior years. But spending at a higher rate than they have been able to take in so far is nonetheless a red flag heading into the general election year.

    Trump’s political operation consists of five committees — his campaign, Save America, Make America Great Again PAC, his joint fundraising committee, and MAGA Inc. — that, on occasion, transfer large sums of money between one another, making it hard to say with precision precisely how much he has raised and spent.

    And this for fun:

    Save America continued to make monthly payments of $18,000 to Hervé Pierre Braillard, a French-American fashion designer based in New York for “strategy consulting.” The designer is close with former first lady Melania Trump, and designed her inauguration ball gown.

  65. 65.

    Another Scott

    @comrade scotts agenda of rage: They’re all anonymous.

    A GovExec story about the earlier “walkout” says the GQP was OUTRAGED.

    It says the group has an Instagram page. Oooh. :-/ They’re from a “range of agencies” and have “at least 15 years” of government service.

    It strikes me as performative noise and nothing serious – like that “internal resistance” OpEd during TIFG’s time (saying they would protect the country so there was nothing to worry about). As we know, there are ways to make one’s opinions clear about one’s view on policy, but someone in, say, the Park Service’s views about what Blinken should do in Gaza probably isn’t going to get too much attention from him. Especially if they’re anonymous.

    I get really suspicious when some story about the US starts off in a UK newspaper, myself. YMMV.

    FWIW.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  66. 66.

    Betty Cracker

    @Baud: I think that’s exactly right; it’s more about the approach than the policy in lots of cases. You have to decide which approach is more likely to move the needle. IMO, the people whipping up anti-Biden sentiment in swing states over the Israel policy are playing with fire. Feds United for Peace might be outnumbered, but their protests are legit expressions of dissent on that issue, I think.

  67. 67.

    Chief Oshkosh

    @New Deal democrat:

    The Fed waited too long to raise rates, and now I am afraid that they are going to wait too long to lower them as well.

    Sure would be nice for the Fed to undergo a performance review…

  68. 68.

    OzarkHillbilly

    So. Much. Winning.

    Donald Trump’s data protection claim for damages over allegations in the “Steele dossier” that he took part in “perverted” sex acts and gave bribes to Russian officials has been dismissed by a high court judge in London.

    Judge Steyn agreed with Orbis Business Intelligence, the company founded by the former British intelligence officer Christopher Steele, who compiled the contentious material, that the case should not go to trial.

    The ruling issued on Thursday said the court did not “consider or determine the accuracy or inaccuracy of the memoranda” but found that Trump’s claim for damages had been made outside the six-year period of “limitations”.

    The court ruled that Trump “has no reasonable grounds for bringing a claim for compensation or damages, and no real prospect of successfully obtaining such a remedy”.

    He hires only the best people.

  70. 70.

    Another Scott

    @catclub: + Eleventy Billion.

    When was a small businessman ever guaranteed a profit??

    Yeah, news stories have to use shorthand, and “uncertainty” can be a useful word to sum-up things.  But like Democrat “tries” to do something, it’s a cudgel these days.

    It would be nice if the reporters wouldn’t lazily editorialize with these anti-Democrat flavoring words in their reporting.  Report the numbers and the changes and the history and let us decide how good or bad it is.  (I’m old enough to remember when we were told by wise economists that real GDP growth above 2% was almost impossible because of structural issues with the US economy, and all the world’s growth was going to be driven by China…)

    Grr…,
    Scott.

  72. 72.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Baud:

    All labels are relative.

    I know, but just handing this one over for free to some minuscule fraction of the left side of the political spectrum – it assigns to them the appearance of a degree of relevance and importance well beyond what they actually have.

  73. 73.

    Baud

    @Betty Cracker:

    The dissent in general is valid.

    But, across a range of issues, there does seem to be a historical pattern of dissenters working with or being coopted by “advocates” whose approach to politics is to be fully oppositional to Democrats and who can’t or won’t adjust based on circumstances. And I think that approach oftentimes hurts their cause and our larger fight.

    I don’t want to overstate their numbers, but they don’t need a lot of people to change the future.

  74. 74.

    MomSense

    Brigid provided abortions as part of her midwifery.  The Catholic Church for much of its history supported abortions until the time of “quickening” which was around 16 weeks.
    The descriptions of her abortions are a little supernatural – she gathered her strength and made the bulge (fetus) disappear but I’ll take it.  She was much loved and had many devotees for a good reason.

  76. 76.

    Kay

    @Betty Cracker:

    I went to a funeral Sunday and sat with two young Lefty women after, at the meal. Early twenties, both college graduates. I liked them. But they are fucking furious with Biden on Gaza.
    There’s this undercurrent of “I thought he was a NICE GUY” that I think is legit – the policy goes against his image. I think that’s WHY it’s damaging. If he had a rep as a hard ass people would be less dismayed.

  77. 77.

    catclub

    @Chief Oshkosh: Sure would be nice for the Fed to undergo a performance review…

     

    They may be terrible, but if you look at their international peers, they will get that raise, since they are better -and their recent record is better –  than all the others.

  79. 79.

    Soprano2

    @rikyrah: Business is dying for a recession to happen. I think they’ll take the hit to their business if they think it can help TFG get elected. Remember, he promised them another big tax cut. I notice the press rarely talks about that promise.

  80. 80.

    Baud

    @lowtechcyclist:

    They’re a minority, but I don’t know that I’d call them miniscule. Depends who you include in the denominator.

    In any event, their power isn’t in their numbers, but in their ability to amplify or complement right wing themes about Dems.

  82. 82.

    Soprano2

    @OzarkHillbilly: What’s crazy is that “uncertainty” was at record levels for all of TFG’s term, and that didn’t seem to bother them too much. Guess they were too busy counting the extra money from the huge tax cut he got them, and being happy about what he was doing to the courts.

  83. 83.

    Another Scott

    @New Deal democrat: I’ll take the other side here.

    I think too many people refused to accept that the pandemic disruption, and the inflation spike, was temporary.  There’s too much money out in the world doing nothing for the Fed’s changing of interest rates to affect the economy as a whole very much (exceptions – housing).  Inflation didn’t spike because the economy overheated, it spiked because of the quick transition in the economy and supply chain issues.  (This is one area where I disagree with Dean Baker.) 

    There was never going to be a “wage and price spiral” of any consequence – labor is still too weak.  Too many people refuse to believe that the 2020s is not the 1970s.
    Powell is trying to follow his legal mandate and keep Congress off his back.  He’s trying to protect the institution (which does have an important function, even if it can’t directly control inflation any more via the interest rate knobs it has).  I think he and Yellen are generally on the same page.  He’s not like Greenspan and hoping to tank Democrats’ prospects.

    Agreed that the mantra about the PCE 2% number needs to be changed.  It’s too low, and anyway should be an average and not a hard ceiling.

    My $0.02.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  84. 84.

    Kay

    @Soprano2:

    A massive corporate tax cut this time – phase two of zeroing out taxes for wealthy people and entities

    Biden panics them – he’s undoing Reagan.

  89. 89.

    zhena gogolia

    talked about suing me — “very strongly” is what I think he said.

    Trump has to stop watching those JL Cauvin videos!

  94. 94.

    Almost Retired

    RABBIT RABBIT

    OT.  I have been informed by traditionalists that the double invocation of this particular rodent as the first words out of your mouth on the first day of the month will bring 30 (29) days of health, love, success and other benefits, including better skin and stronger nails.  They must be your first words.  “Good morning, honey, rabbit rabbit,” will not bring the blessings of the bunnies, but may inadvertently summon Baphomet.

    I’m not sure if the same benefits accrue from typing “rabbit rabbit.”  I leave it to the scientists for a definitive answer.

    You’re welcome.

  95. 95.

    catclub

    @Jeffro: The enormously costly effort produced negligible results, and Mr. DeSantis decided to drop out before the New Hampshire primary and endorse Mr. Trump.

     

    I think Giuliani still holds the record for most spent per vote won.

    He got about zero votes in Iowa  and NH before dropping out.

    And was considered the frontrunner.  I guess that was 2008.

  96. 96.

    Kay

    @Baud:

    OTOH I think there’s too much “they’re not REAL DEMOCRATS” on this blog. One vote is one vote. A real Democrat vote isn’t 1.5 or 2.

    I know they’re not Democrats. A quarter of our coalition doesn’t identify as Democrats. We don’t have a spare 5 million votes. We need everyone we had last time plus some. We’re stuck with one another.

  97. 97.

    Another Scott

    @Another Scott: Oh, and the ways to fix this and give the Fed more control over inflation?  Get the mountain of unproductive money to start circulating in the economy (with a reasonable transition) and doing real work for the country:

    1.  Raise taxes on the wealthy, treat wages as better for the economy than plutocrats sitting on billions.
    2.  Raise baseline benefits for everyone (which will naturally benefit the bottom 50% more), and pay for it with higher taxes on the plutocrats.

    If the Fed is no longer pushing on a string, then they’ll have more direct control over (normal, non-pandemic) inflation.  For good and ill.  ;-)

    My $0.02.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  100. 100.

    Baud

    @Kay:

    Right. But I think we have a habit of chasing dead enders and trying to persuade them instead of moving on.

    While Pick Up Artist culture is scummy, they are correct that it’s a numbers game.

    It’s always hard to lose someone who you think should support us, but we can’t let that be a distraction.

    Also, too, don’t get mad, because what people say they will do in February doesn’t necessarily reveal what they will do in November.

  101. 101.

    topclimber

    @Gin & Tonic: Good news indeed.

    Now, let us all give thanks to Trump for telling the Europeans in 2017 they had to start paying their fair share to defend Europe. They must have listened because they expect him to win in 2024, just like the stock market is high for the same reason. I know because TFG has told us so.

  102. 102.

    Kay

    @Baud:

    My daughter has compromised on not donating to Democrats (she sends it to relief orgs for medical workers in Gaza) but still voting for them. That seems fair to me.

  103. 103.

    Baud

    @Kay:

    Completely. Time and donations are great, but it’s the votes that matter. That’s my litmus test, given our current political situation.

  105. 105.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Kay:

    I don’t consider myself a Lefty. I’m a liberal Democrat – a Party person. Fairly conventional in my views except for immigration and criminal justice, where I am on the (actual) Left.

    I have considered myself a lefty (lower case) for quite some time – I was willing to admit to being a liberal before I was willing to admit to being a Democrat.

    From the 1990s on, my problem with the Democratic Party was that it was always hesitant to take a firm stand for the things it supposedly believed. I spent a couple of decades calling it the Scared Rabbit Party, always willing to run away from a position the moment it got any heat for it.

    That didn’t mean I wasn’t a Democrat; I was quite aware that in our two-party system, there was nowhere else to go.  (Fuck Ralph Nader, by the way.)

    I feel I’ve spent decades to the left of where the Democratic Party largely is.  But in Biden’s Presidency, it’s finally caught up with me.  For the first time in my life, I’m proud rather than depressed or ashamed to be a Democrat.  (Feels great, by the way!)  And the party seems to have finally acquired a backbone – no, we’re not looking for some damned compromise on abortion, we’re not going to throw gay or trans persons under the bus, we’re unequivocal in our support for labor, we’ve done a shitload of things to make life better for the bottom 50% of the population, economically speaking.  Doing all the sorts of things that a party of the left should be doing, IOW.

    So now that, AFAIAC, the left has won the Democratic Party, fuck-all if I want to yield that label to some bunch of yammerers way out on the fringe who are just looking for excuses to be unhappy with the party, when it’s now doing or fighting for everything they’ve been urging it to do or fight for for the past few eons. Fuck those assholes.

  106. 106.

    Mousebumples

    Anyone know more about the bill that passed the House yesterday (?) – something about the child tax credit, I think?

    Work (and kiddos!) is keeping me busy, but I’d love a solid summary if anyone has one to share. Given the bipartisan nature of the House vote, it seems likely to pass the Senate… Though that’s not a given.

  109. 109.

    Princess

    @Kay: More than fair. I will also say — though many people won’t like this here — while I agree with you that Biden and the Dems need direct outreach to Arab communities, there are going to be minds that will not change, no matter what. And I understand that. For people who are actually Palestinian — not just Arab but Palestinian — that are not going to vote for a president someone who is going to sell munitions that will land on their friends and families. They will not. If both candidates who can will do that, they will not vote for either. There are issues for which you can think of the bigger picture and the best outcome in a bad situation, but there are issues that touch so personally, you cannot. So I think we need to be realistic.

  110. 110.

    lowtechcyclist

    @New Deal democrat:

    But the anemic growth in tax withholding payments typically *is* a sign of recession. In fact according to the tax withholding tracker, in the past such an anemic increase has almost always only happened during recessions.

    ETA: Link —> https://www.dailyjobsupdate.com

    So on this past November 1, we were about where we were in September or October of 2018.  But we didn’t have a recession in 2019.  And to the extent we did in 2020, it had more to do with Covid than anything else.

    I don’t see a downturn happening in 2024.  IMHO, we’d really need some external shock to make that happen.  Growth might slow down, but there’s room for that.

  111. 111.

    Jackie

    @Mousebumples: Here’s two summaries with links. Whether the Senate can hit the +60 threshold is iffy – as passing this “will help Biden in an election year.”🥴

    “The House passed bipartisan tax legislation Wednesday evening that would expand the Child Tax Credit and restore several business tax breaks — a rare feat in an otherwise bitterly divided Congress that has frequently suffered crippling dysfunction,” Politico reports.

    “The $78 billion tax package was sent to the Senate on a vote of 357 to 70, with strong support from both Republicans and Democrats. It awaits an uncertain future in the upper chamber, with some Senate Republicans calling for hearings and others eager to make changes in the bill.”

    Roll Call: “The package negotiated by House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith, R-Mo., and Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden, D-Ore., easily mustered the two-thirds majority needed to pass, despite GOP drama earlier in the week and previous criticism from Democrats.”

  113. 113.

    The Thin Black Duke

    @Princess: Trouble is, there is no Plan ‘B’. Not voting for the Democrats means putting the Republicans in charge and it’s guaranteed that they will make things worse, and next time around, the Democrats won’t be able to fix what the Republicans destroy. Sometimes you get half a loaf and sometimes there’s nothing left but crumbs. It’s still better than a broken plate.

  114. 114.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Another Scott:

    There was never going to be a “wage and price spiral” of any consequence – labor is still too weak.  Too many people refuse to believe that the 2020s is not the 1970s.

    THIS.  There’s just no good step-by-step explanation of how this could work in this decade.  Just handwaving and that ‘wage-price spiral’ phrase that should have been retired >40 years ago.

    Also, in a global economy, wage increases in one nation, even ours, can only have so much effect on global prices.

  115. 115.

    Kay

    @Princess:

    I am pissed at Biden for not mentioning civilian deaths in his 100 day marker speech – that was either a deliberate diss or just fucking clueless.
    I also think Blinken could do more to include civilian deaths in his public statements – he’s a damn diplomat – he should understand this.

    Theres also a part of the Left who think Netanyahu is jerking Biden around making him look weak. That concerns me because weakness – the US getting screwed in negotiations- is something normies won’t like.

  116. 116.

    Baud

    @Princess:

    I would suggest that voters who are not Palestinian American may want to consider doing the right thing so that Palestinian Americans can safely withhold their vote without risking more pain on Palestinians (and a host of Americans as well) that would come from Republican rule.

    But no one listens to me.

  117. 117.

    rikyrah

    OT:

    I don’t know  if anyone out here is someone that uses Eucerin, in the jar.

    If you do, does  it seem to you that they’ve changed the formula?

    The cream was always  far more solid. Had to take time  to rub it on your skin.

    And, the new jar that I got yesterday, was wetter. It was like a thicker lotion.

    Anyone else experience this?

  118. 118.

    Kay

    @Princess:

    one of the young women I was talking to at the funeral said “he’s lost two children! “ (Biden) “how can he not care about these kids?”

    Thats what I mean by persona not matching actions – that bothers people.

  120. 120.

    Elizabelle

    @Kay:  Why does she think he does not care about the kids in Gaza, or anywhere?

    @Princess:  That is understandable, but I hope someone will explain to these devastated Palestinians and Arab Americans that not voting for Biden is EXACTLY what Netanyahu hoped to bring about with his genocide. And it is a genocide.

    They are allowing Bibi to manipulate them.  I understand that they are devastated, but they need to be smarter about this, too.  Cutting off their noses will just leave them without noses.

  121. 121.

    Elizabelle

    @Baud:  I hope that Dobbs will help us run up the margins.

    The Supreme Court is a great issue, and in my heart of hearts, I hope Biden does expand it, even though he says he is not going to.  As it stands, they are not a co-equal branch.  They are destroyers, and unaccountable.

  123. 123.

    catclub

    @The Thin Black Duke: Trouble is, there is no Plan ‘B’.

     

    Yeah. “Suppose you withhold your vote and Biden actually loses to Trump.  Will that be a better result for Gaza and the Palestinians?”

  124. 124.

    Baud

    @Elizabelle:

    Hopefully.

    I agree with your comment above. Netanyahu was hoping for Trump before the Hamas attack, and now is dreading a second Biden term because he does not want to deal with Biden pushing for a peace plan that includes a Palestinian state.

  126. 126.

    Elizabelle

    @Baud:  I think we should be more overt talking about this, and gently pushing back against those who blame Biden for Bibi’s actions.

  130. 130.

    Baud

    @rikyrah:

    Yes. If we can get 50, we’ll have a shot at doing some good things. A little worried about Angus King, but he’s no Manchinema.

  132. 132.

    Princess

    @Kay: Yes, and Biden acknowledging those deaths and weeping for them a bit in his way, solves both your concerns — it fits what we believe we know about who he is, and it sticks a shiv in Netanyahu and makes him look stronger. No matter what is going on behind the scenes, it’s good policy as well as the right thing to do.

  133. 133.

    Anyway

    @rikyrah:

    Is a $ not sent to the RNC.

    Sorry to yabut … R-thugs have so many reactionary billionaire sugar daddies and PACs and “think-tanks” and substacks and on and on spreading their propaganda – RNC being a few $$ short doesn’t matter much in reaching their rubes.

  134. 134.

    rikyrah

    @Baud:

    I would suggest that voters who are not Palestinian American may want to consider doing the right thing so that Palestinian Americans can safely withhold their vote without risking more pain on Palestinians (and a host of Americans as well) that would come from Republican rule.

     

    What is the right thing?

    Bibi getting the boot? Been wishing for it for awhile. But, that lunatic is still the head of Israel.

    The USA without funding from Israel?

    Yeah, I would do it. But, it would never pass the Congress.

  135. 135.

    rikyrah

    @Elizabelle:

    They are allowing Bibi to manipulate them.  I understand that they are devastated, but they need to be smarter about this, too.  Cutting off their noses will just leave them without noses.

     

    If they don’t understand that there has been NO REPUBLICAN DEFENDING GAZA IN ANYWAY, SHAPE, OR FORM…

    come on, now.

    That’s what upsets me.

    They can’t even purse their lips to say:

    ” The Republicans say that they would do this for Gaza.”

    Because, they’ve ALL said..that they would let Bibi turn Gaza into a parking lot. With no aid to Gaza. And, certainly, no Gaza refugees coming to America.

     

    But, Biden is supposed to resolve an issue that’s almost as old as he is.

    Lips so pursed.

  136. 136.

    Baud

    @rikyrah:

    Voting blue. It’s what voters control directly.

    The more Biden is ahead in November, the more room Palestinian Americans have to express their frustration without destroying both the US and the Palestinian people.

    ETA: But Bibi getting the boot would be welcome.

  137. 137.

    Elizabelle

    @rikyrah:

    Biden is supposed to resolve an issue that’s almost as old as he is.

    That’s a good way to put it.

    And as a third party, too.

    A lot can happen between now and November.  I like our chances.

  138. 138.

    Paul in KY

    @Kay: Did you say to them: ‘But he is being a nice guy, in comparison to TFG, who would green light the complete removal to “reeducation camps” for all Gaza Muslims. That’s the ONLY choice you have, compassionate Joe or TFG.’

  143. 143.

    Jeffro

    @Jackie: isn’t that great?

    I think there’s one where Kelce knocks over a water cooler in disgust with Mahomes’ comments, too.  =)

  145. 145.

    JaneE

    They claim many federal employees support a ceasefire but are scared of speaking out for fear of retribution…

    I find it hard to believe that there is anyone who does not support a ceasefire.  The differences lie in the logistics of enforcing one, preventing Hamas and others from rearming during one, and getting the Netanyahu to agree to one in the first place.    If the ceasefire is a prelude to the actual end of hostilities, then you can add who governs Gaza in the near and long term, and how is the security of both Israel and Palestine (or Palestinians) to be guaranteed.

  149. 149.

    Another Scott

    @Baud: Trouble is, politicians mostly pay attention to people who vote for them.

    As we know.

    “Joe, I’ve supported you for 50 years, but you need to find a way to do this and that…” is compelling.

    “Joe, I will never vote for you because you won’t do what I want right now about this complicated thing…” is not.

    I’m not surprised that people are trying to use their vote to get the change they want.  But saying “never” isn’t going to persuade Biden.

    Youngsters will learn this, as many of us did.

    I expect a significant pause to happen fairly soon ( < 3 months ). Then the hard work starts…

    My $0.02.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

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