Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.

“Let’s not pretend [Trump] wants to engage in high-minded discourse.”

Jack be nimble, jack be quick, hurry up and indict this prick.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

The frogs are rarely mistaken.

Their boy Ron is an empty plastic cup that will never know pudding.

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

The choice is between normal and crazy.

T R E 4 5 O N

I am pretty sure Katy Tur wasn’t always such a bootlicking sycophant.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

There is no right way to do the wrong thing.

“And when the Committee says to “report your income,” that could mean anything!

If you thought you’d already seen people saying the stupidest things possible on the internet, prepare yourselves.

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

Every day Vance writes another chapter in the book called “Worst VP Pick Ever”.

Someone should tell Republicans that violence is the last refuge of the incompetent, or possibly the first.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

Pelosi: “He either is stupid, or he thinks the rest of us are.” Why not both?

Well, whatever it is, it’s better than being a Republican.

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

The arc of the moral universe doesn’t bend itself. it’s up to us.

Democrats are back in array!

You are here: Home / Elections / Local Races / Local Races Open Thread: Does Colin Allred Stand A Chance Against Ted Cruz?

Local Races Open Thread: Does Colin Allred Stand A Chance Against Ted Cruz?

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I know Texas is heavily gerrymandered / wired for Republicans, but Allred seems like a good legislator, which Cruz is… not. Apart from being a notorious sports jinx, looks like Cruz has decided to respond to criticism of his ‘Flight to Cancun’ epic in the most Cruz manner possible:


Per Politico:

… The Texas Republican — infamously photographed by a gawker while en route to Cancún in 2021 — is proposing a bill amendment that would offer lawmakers a dedicated security escort at airports, along with expedited screening outside of public view. That could make it much less likely that the politicians’ comings and goings would become fodder for embarrassing news reports and late-night comedy mockery.

The measure would also provide the same special treatment to federal judges and Cabinet members, as well as a limited number of their family and staff. Cruz is trying to attach the amendment to a major aviation policy bill, S. 1939, that is expected to be marked up in the Senate Commerce Committee on Thursday.

Asked about the need for his amendment, Cruz told POLITICO that it’s about ensuring that political VIPs aren’t endangered as they pass through public spaces in airports. The draft says the extra security would be available to those who are currently or have previously “been the subject of a threat.”…

Political leaders’ air travels could become harder to decipher under Cruz’s draft language, which was obtained by POLITICO. The amendment would mandate that the TSA help “arrange” a security escort — which the provision says could be local law enforcement — for “the entirety of the time” the VIPs are at an airport. In addition, it would grant lawmakers under protective escort the ability to be screened without delay…


I guess if a GOP legislator is not important enough to qualify for a private jet, like Sinema or Justice Thomas…

So: What do you think about Colin Allred, Texas jackals?

ETA: Readership capture!

Reader Interactions

208Comments

  1. 1.

    JoyceH

    Wow, that Cruz proposed legislation is a campaign commercial waiting to happen! Heck, a whole series of commercials. Not just the snooty arrogance of it all, but the reminder that he cut and ran when his state was in crisis (icing on the cake), as well as reminding AGAIN that the GOP power structure in Texas is so indifferent or incompetent that they can’t even keep their citizens from freezing to death in the winter or keeling over from heat stroke in the summer (more cake with more icing!).

  2. 2.

    Yutsano

    Texas is not a red state. Texas is a non-voting state. Allred needs a really good ground game. He needs to go out and make connections all the while making it clear Rafael isn’t bothering to campaign outside his little bubbles. But he needs to get people to the polls if he’s going to have any chance.

    And remember: Beto only lost by three points.

  7. 7.

    Jackie

    The Senate isn’t effected by gerrymandering like congressional districts are – thank goodness!

    Beto came within 3 points of Cruz in ‘18. Since that time Cruz has become an even better known asshole and MAGAt. His cowardly response during the ice storm/power outage in Feb ‘20 and horrific response to the Uvalde massacre have hopefully angered A LOT of Texans. But, those same Texans re-elected Abbott.

  8. 8.

    waspuppet

    I can see how Cruz’s bill would work in practice: Democrats would not be considered to be “under threat” even if they have non-anonymous death-threat emails printed out, while Republicans can “feel threatened” because people voted against them.

  9. 9.

    bookworm1398

    I think this is more about the time last year when Cruz got into an argument with the gate agent. And then there was the time he was booed while waiting at the gate.

  11. 11.

    Anonymous at Work

    Rafael Cruz ‘s dislikability is so strong that he jinxes sports teams from the stands.  He’s so awful a person that his approval makes sports teams play poorly.

    Should lean into that part, to remind people how much of a bag of dicks he is.

    (I bet his kids call him ‘Ted’ or ‘that guy’s.)

  12. 12.

    Ken

    I don’t think Cruz needs to worry about Allred out-raising him by $1.4 million. The Republican National Committee will dip into their reserves and send Cruz —

    Pardon me, I’m informed the RNC has no reserves, and Trump has first dibs on anything they do bring in. Ah, well. Perhaps they have enough to e-mail Cruz a link to the wikipedia page on the Streisand Effect.

  13. 13.

    Marmot

    @JoyceH: “Ted Cruz wants his own limousine lane at the airport, while you wait in line with regular Americans.”

    I didn’t write that! It did it itself!

  14. 14.

    Almost Retired

    Allred’s appearances on cable have been impressive.  He seems to balance well-articulated policy proposals with razor-sharp criticisms of Cruz.  He also seems more palatable to Texas sensibilities.  My Democratic friends in Texas (admittedly a small sample) seemed more enthusiastic about him than they were about Beto last cycle.  As one of them told me “Beto seems too self-absorbed and California-ish, so no wonder you like him.”  Uh…. Thanks?

  15. 15.

    Kirk

    I’ll vote for him if I’m still here, but it’s still Texas.

    If it’s a nationwide runaway blue train in November then there’s a good chance. Otherwise I’ll continue to be hopeful but without expectations.

  16. 16.

    trollhattan

    Do not believe in a One Weird Trick to unfuck Texas politics, which have unceasingly become worse. When Greg Abbott is not the worst guy in office you have a deep-seated problem.

    Try, of course, and bless you for doing so, but Republicans have their sticky mitts around the state’s neck and are not letting go.
    I blame Biden.

  17. 17.

    marcopolo

    @Jackie: Second this on gerrymandering not affecting statewide races (per se–though I guess there could be an effect if gerrymandering led to lower D turnout in gerrymandered state legislative districts cause why vote if there’s no chance of winning the local races).

    Beyond that, I think TX is going to keep disappointing Ds until someday it doesn’t (really had my hopes up in 2018)*.  Don’t know when that flip happens but it should someday, lol.  Hopefully in the next decade. The blue areas of TX are adding population like procreating bunnies compared to the red (though, obviously not all of those folks lean D).  Here’s a good informative piece from KXAN in Austin about TX growth.  It also has a way to look at 2016 vs 2020 statewide election results

    *PS.  Otoh, I just think FL will keep disappointing us ad infinitem.

  18. 18.

    karen marie

    Let’s also not forget that when Cruz abandoned Texas to fly off to Cancun, he also abandoned “his” dog  to be cared for by “a security guard” posted outside.  It would be speculation whether that “security guard” was paid with tax dollars but it’s not speculation to note that Cruz was too cheap to pay to board the dog but chose to leave it locked in a cold, empty house by itself.

  19. 19.

    smith

    Every cycle we’re told about a red state Dem challenging a GQP incumbent who’s really, really disliked in the state, only to find out that the voters there hate Democrats even more. It starts to feel like Lucy and the football. I decided a while back that FL and TX are off my donation list until there is some sign that voters in those states are open to persuasion.

    On the other hand, not only do we need to hold the Senate seats we have, we really need to replace Manchin. For me, it would be helpful if some of the political gurus here at BJ could provide a cold-eyed analysis of the best prospects for pickups as an antidote for the starry-eyed falling-in-love that so often takes over the discussion.

  23. 23.

    Geminid

    @trollhattan: Have Texas politics really gotten unceasingly worse? I realize there is a big Republican majority in the state legislature because of gerrymandering. But Hilary Clinton lost Texas by 9% in 2016, while in 2020 Joe Biden lost by 5.56. Trump did the worst a Republican candidate did since 1996, and Biden did the best a Democrat has since Jimmy Carter won the state in 1976. So the trend in this respect is positive.

  25. 25.

    marcopolo

    @zhena gogolia: Funny, i could make the opposite argument and state one of Beto’s problems was he was too authentic (in the 2018 senate run; the 2020 prez run felt a little different to me).  His position on guns, which I agree with wholeheartedly, def cost him votes in 2018. Being a little more coy/political might have helped him–but prob not.

  26. 26.

    trollhattan

    @Geminid: Ann Richards to George W Bush to Rick Perry to Greg Abbott. That’s my Tex-o-meter.

    Ted Cruz, of course, is the first of several apparent extraterrestrials now in the Senate and I can’t explain that trend at all.

  27. 27.

    Jackie

    @smith:

    we really need to replace Manchin

    Manchin is not running again. Dems aren’t going to keep WV. We have pick up that senate seat elsewhere.

  30. 30.

    marcopolo

    @Alison Rose: you and me both but i’m pretty sure both of us are far to the left of the median TX voter.

    edited to add: i live in MO; i’d like to believe the median voter in TX is a smidge or two to the left of the median voter in MO.

  32. 32.

    Quadrillipede

    In 2018, Beto O’Rourke got 48.33% of the vote versus Wolverine’s Dad’s 50.89% — a difference of about 215,000 votes — and that was before the Cancun middle finger incident, so I think it’s worth a shot this time around. If nothing else, making the RNC spend money on this race might be worth it, by putting them even further in the red.

  33. 33.

    zhena gogolia

    @marcopolo: Well, yes, there’s that, and the performative profanity didn’t help. (I say this as someone who is prone to that sin.) I meant more his “Vanity Fair profile” side.

  34. 34.

    Geminid

    @hells littlest angel: Colin Allred has the elements of a strong candidate but it would probably take a wave election for him to win, like the 2018 election when he flipped his Dalla-area seat. But there is no iron law of politics that decrees that a wave election cannot happen 6 years after another one.

  36. 36.

    West of the Rockies

    Hey, I haven’t noticed Kent’s presence here in a bit (the Seattle high school science teacher).  Maybe I’ve just missed him?  Anyone seen him here of late?

  39. 39.

    marcopolo

    @Geminid:  This article (which I linked above) crunches your numbers.  Go all the way towards the end.

    Population growth has contributed to significantly-higher vote totals. In 2016, just under 9 million votes were cast statewide in the presidential election. That figure ballooned to more than 11.3 million in 2022.

    Suburban counties in particular are leading the charge. In the 2020 election, Texans as a whole cast 26% more ballots than in 2016. In suburban counties specifically, that figure was 37%.

  42. 42.

    Joseph Nobles

    Allred is my candidate. There are two others, one I knew about. You can see a debate between the three by looking for the Texas AFL-CIO account at YouTube.

    I was in Allred’s district when I lived in Dallas. He ousted Pete Sessions, so that’s great. I’m glad to be able to vote for him again. But any of the three candidates in the debate would be better than Ted. Roland Gutierrez is more outspoken on gun control than Allred, but he’s doing it in the name of the Uvalde survivors. If Gutierrez is the nominee, he’s from San Antonio (where I live now). I’m hearing that Allred may not be as present down here as he could be. But this is the primary, not the general.

    I do think Allred can win over Cruz. Part of it is being a normal human being up against the desperate to appear human Cruz. But ultimately it will be the outrage over Dobbs that puts him over the finish line. Allred is pushing that in the places I see him on the socials. He’s also saddling Ted with being more a podcaster than a US Senator.

    The headwinds in Texas will be immigration, Trumpmania, and Biden hatred. But Cruz is uniquely weak this time around. Being able to play Cruz’s condemnations of Trump right next to his enthusiastic endorsements, playing his Texas bravado next to his Cancun adventure… all that will be great ad fodder. However, the University of Houston thinks Beto got so close because Cruz underestimated him and started attacking him too late to blunt momentum. This time Cruz will be on the Democratic candidate from the get go. Their polls show Cruz beating Allred by 9 points.

    https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/polls/2024/02/01/476040/poll-colin-allred-leads-roland-gutierrez-in-democratic-primary-but-both-trail-republican-ted-cruz/

  43. 43.

    Harrison Wesley

    All 4 of my sibs live in Texas and I’ve never heard any of them say anything positive about Cruz.  I have no idea what will happen there, but I have a bad feeling Democrats are going to get hosed at any state-wide elections here in Florida.  The number of registered Republicans keeps growing…..

  44. 44.

    Quadrillipede

    @Anonymous at Work: (I bet his kids call him ‘Ted’ or ‘that guy’s.)

    Judging from his daughter’s reaction to being kissed in public (and I think her reaction was totally justified), I wouldn’t be surprised to learn they have much worse nicknames for him…

  45. 45.

    Alison Rose

    Y’all, something so bizarre is happening and I’m starting to wonder if I am on some sort of long-form Candid Camera type show. In the courtyard behind my apartment building, there’s a little bike rack (this style). I’ve lived here for over 5 years now and had never seen anyone use it. Back in late September, a bike suddenly showed up, chained to the rack, but I didn’t think anything of it. These apartments are small (all the same floor plan) and there isn’t really a good spot to keep a bike inside unless you don’t have anything else in the front closet. But after a few weeks, I noticed that the bike never moved. I’m always home, of course, and there was never a moment in the day when it was gone. And that is still true now, over four months since it first showed up.

    A few weeks ago, a second bike showed up chained to the rack. It has also never once moved since it arrived. And today, I noticed a third fucking bike now chained to the rack.

    I am legitimately confused and also a little scared. There is maybe room for one more bike on the rack, and then what? Will they chain them to the other bikes? To the lamppost or the doggie-bag station or the trees? Is this The Birds but with bikes? Are they going to keep piling up until they reach my 3rd-floor windows and bash their way through the glass to attack me? Have we all been wrongly worried about AI taking over when it was the bikes we needed to fear all along?

    I feel like a nosy bitch recluse in a very boring thriller novel.

  47. 47.

    karen gail

    @karen marie: People get more upset about the treatment of animals than what happens with other people. While people were upset and angry about people without power, they were horrified by his treatment of dog. I remember the comments, people who felt no need to comment about treatment of people were willing to speak out about the treatment of abandoning dog to cold empty house.

  49. 49.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Baud: ​
     

    Unfortunately, I think the best chance for pickups for this cycle are FL and TX.

    Yeah, it’s a tough map this year. Texas is probably the best Senate pickup opportunity that we’ve got, and it’s an uphill climb.

  51. 51.

    Almost Retired

    @smith: Alas Texas is probably the best prospect for a pick up.  Like you I’m reluctant to do any rage-donating in TX and FL.

    But holding on to non-WV seats would result in a tie again.  And season two would be without Manchin or Sinema (assuming she cashes out and Gallegos wins).  I could live with that.  Which is why I was enthusiastic about BJs targeting the Native vote in Montana to give Tester a leg up at retaining his seat.

    Honestly Texas frustrates the hell out of me.  I get that there’s voter suppression etc., and vibrant blue cities and is rapidly diversifying.  But JFC.  Ken Paxton was an indicted cartoon villain with a credible challenger for AG (Rochelle Garza) and still won by roughly 10 points.  I just can’t bring myself to make a donation to cut into the authoritarian’s margin of victory as a best case scenario.

    More interested in the purpling states like Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, and blueing up the purple states like Michigan and Wisconsin.  Not sure how I feel about Ohio.

  53. 53.

    Marcopolo

    @zhena gogolia: yeah, the vanity fair piece was about his Prez run.  think Beto had slightly inflated head/ consultant in the head condition at that point. He was better in 2018.

  56. 56.

    Geminid

    @trollhattan: I think O’Rourke made that provocative statement about taking assault weapons during his brief Presidential campaign. He never should have run that year, but I guess he thought he had a chance.

  60. 60.

    NotoriousJRT

    @marcopolo: interesting. I also read Beto as earnest.  He tilts at difficult windmills so I like him.
    ETA: I like Alred, too and have been wondering if I should send him some of my limited political dollars.

  61. 61.

    Odie Hugh Manatee

    @JoyceH:

    No shit! Nothing like telling everyone that your shit smells so good that you deserve a police escort & security detail, priority check in and more just because of who you are.

    The icing on his shit cake is that the public will pay for all of their goodies and wait longer in line because they get to cut to the front of the line.

  62. 62.

    Balconesfault

    A lot of us here in Texas felt Beto was becoming too much a candidate the East and West Coasters loved part way through campaign against Cruz.

    Clearly that helped his fundraising, but he used that extra money to go buy political consultants from DC who really didn’t know the terrain and didn’t know how to run a campaign down here.

    Then doubling down and jumping into the presidential primary in 2020, and trying to run to the left to do so, really wiped out his chances for defeating Abbott in 2022.

    Beto loves his celebrity status, but that’s not going to win him statewide elections in Texas.

  63. 63.

    Geminid

    @Quadrillipede: I think it will take “all of the above” to put Colin Allred in the Senate. Still, Cruz is probably a weaker candidate than he would be if he wasn’t such a phony. Candidate quality usually does not trump demographics, but it can in a close election.

  64. 64.

    Salty Sam .

    So: What do you think about Colin Allred, Texas jackals?

    Honestly, I’m a little thin on details about him, except for the one most important thing:  he is NOT Ted Cruz.

  65. 65.

    Another Scott

    Made me look… TexasTribuine.org (from 1/28):

    On abortion rights, all three supported codifying Roe v. Wade, the landmark U.S. Supreme Court ruling that the court overturned in 2022. But they were not entirely unified on how far they would be willing to go, including on whether to abolish the Senate filibuster that has prevented passage of such legislation in a closely divided chamber.

    Gutierrez said “damn right” to both abolishing the filibuster and expanding the Supreme Court if necessary. Allred only said he would “not let the filibuster stand in the way.”

    There were also differences over how the United States should respond to the war in Gaza, which was sparked by Hamas’ October terrorist attack that killed 1,200 Israelis. Gutierrez reiterated his call for a ceasefire, saying, “You cannot bring justice to 1,200 people by killing 30,000, a third of which are women and children.”

    Allred, who has not called for a ceasefire, argued a ceasefire “without conditions” would not free Israeli hostages and would keep Hamas in power.

    “It is unacceptable that we would pursue something along those lines,” he said. “We can limit — and do everything we can to limit — civilian casualties while also prosecuting this conflict against Hamas, but a ceasefire is not a magical term” to fully solve the problem.

    Allred continued to stand out when term limits came up. Both Sherman and Gutierrez backed the idea in some form, but Allred invoked the storied legacies of veteran Black lawmakers like John Lewis and noted term limits would have kept them from serving. Allred said voting rights and campaign finance reforms are a better way of “getting rid of bad incumbents, not by setting kind of arbitrary deadlines.”

    Term limits for elected officials are almost always a really bad idea. On that alone, Allred would have my vote. (I’ve already donated to him.)

    I’ve read about various groups trying to do their thing to get Democrats to win. Including “Texas Majority PAC that is backed by Soros money” (oooh – scary!! ;-). Here’s hoping that they’ll all pull together this time.

    Fingers crossed.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  67. 67.

    NotoriousJRT

    @karen gail: My excuse is the inferred agency and understanding of dire circumstances possessed by most humans that a pet locked in an unheated house does not have.  People who treat pets without humanity and responsibility don’t deserve public power, IMO.

  68. 68.

    Mai Naem mobile

    @Almost Retired: i hadn’t heard anything about BJ targeting the Native vote in Montana. I don’t know the percentage of Native’s in Montana but a Tester win will probably be slim so any sliver of votes will count.

    Today, I was feeling unusually positive about Biden’s and the Dems’ chances and then made the mistake of tuning into MSNBC during a segment where they were talking about lack of enthusiasm for Biden in the  SC Dem primary.  Seriously, I don’t really care about enthusiasm for Biden in a primary  in freaking SC which he is guaranteed to lose.  Yes, I know about down ballot etc I still don’t care. And, yes, I do think Collin Allred has a chance because of the football thing and Cruz being such a d-bag. I also think the Dems need to spend more money in Texas, FL, GA, NC and AZ in local races. By local I mean state legislatures. It’s relatively cheap and you get a farm team to run for higher stuff when the opportunity(monthly GOP sexy time scandal?)presents itself.

  69. 69.

    Jackie

    @NotoriousJRT: One thing Texans will respect Allred for is he’s a former NFL player. A man’s man vs the wimpy Cruz – who is a curse to the Cowboys. If every Cowboys fan 18 and older voted against him… Adios Ted!

  70. 70.

    Almost Retired

    @Mai Naem mobile:   There was a fundraiser in November.  The thermometer is still up.  Tester is very popular with the Native community and they arguably provided his margin of victory in his first election.  BJ helped four directions return to Montana to turn out the native vote.

  73. 73.

    Salty Sam .

    @marcopolo: I guess there could be an effect if gerrymandering led to lower D turnout in gerrymandered state legislative districts cause why vote if there’s no chance of winning the local races

    This is the biggest problem we have in Texas.  It’s not just gerrymandered districts either.  There are polling places where “those people” do not feel safe voting.  Just the zeitgeist of the state leads to lower engagement from those who are not wealthy white assholes.

    I criticized Chetan Murthy pretty strongly a few days ago for over-generalizing about Texans.   The thing is, his horrifying experience with the state is not uncommon.   But there ARE those of us who are doing what we can to turn the tide.  It’s not going to be quick or easy.

  74. 74.

    Kelly

    I have high hopes my Oregon’s 5th Congressional district will be recaptured. It was a Democratic seat for 26 years. Cook D+2. Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer defeated Jamie McLeod-Skinner by 2.1%. I think the strongest Democratic candidate is Janelle Bynum. In 2018 Ms Bynum defeated Chavez_DeRemer for a seat in Oregon Legislature. It will not be easy. National Republicans are willing to spend money here. Chavez_DeRemer has 5 times the the cash on hand as any of our Democratic challengers and is unopposed in the primary.

  75. 75.

    karen gail

    @NotoriousJRT: I understood the point you were making about people, since so many people will blame those who are homeless on their own actions rather than looking at the root of the problem.
    Personally, I believe if you have a pet there is a level of responsibility involved since most pets are completely dependent on the humans. Nothing will anger me quicker than to see an animal mistreated by those who took them in.

  76. 76.

    dmsilev

    I know this is going to come as a complete shock to everyone, but the AP just called the SC primary for Biden. With 13% of the vote counted, he’s ‘only’ at about 97%. And Dean Philips is in third behind Marianne Williamson.

  77. 77.

    trollhattan

    Well crapola, here it comes.

    Tonight
    Showers, mainly after midnight. Low around 46. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

    Sunday
    Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 5pm. Patchy fog after 10am. High near 57. Windy, with a south southeast wind 22 to 27 mph increasing to 35 to 40 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

    Sunday Night
    Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 5am, then showers likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Patchy fog between 7pm and 8pm. Low around 49. Windy, with a south wind 22 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

    If my cyphering skills haven’t left me, we may get 3+ inches by tomorrow night. Everything is saturated from the last couple of weeks and they’re releasing water from the major reservoirs, so….
    California, the Feast/Famine State

  80. 80.

    Jackie

    @Baud: Exactly. MSNBC and I assume CNN are doing obligatory SC poll checkins because Presidential Primary and they covered the GQP primaries.

    Usually the incumbent doesn’t partake in primaries, but there are two idjits running against Biden, so there you have it.

  81. 81.

    Brachiator

    @Geminid:

    But Hilary Clinton lost Texas by 9% in 2016, while in 2020 Joe Biden lost by 5.56. Trump did the worst a Republican candidate did since 1996, and Biden did the best a Democrat has since Jimmy Carter won the state in 1976. So the trend in this respect is positive.

    The Texas Tribune has a very nice graphic showing the margin of victory for Texas in presidential elections since 1976.

    It would be great if the Democrats won in 2024.

  83. 83.

    Odie Hugh Manatee

    We got robbed by pack of girls and woman who is obviously the pack leader. They held us hostage for $30 ransom and we had no choice but to pay up. Our newfound freedom includes a few packages of thin mints and a couple of tagalongs, to be delivered some time in the future.

    Acceptable terms.

  85. 85.

    Salty Sam .

    @trollhattan: Ann Richards to George W Bush to Rick Perry to Greg Abbott. That’s my Tex-o-meter

    This just tracks with the general race to the bottom with the GOP nationwide.  Texas is not unique in kind, just intensity.

  87. 87.

    trollhattan

    @Salty Sam .: But for Ann Richards I might agree, at least as to Bush to Abbott. And my further expectation is Abbott being replaced by somebody even worse than Abbott, the Lt. Gov and AG come to mind immediately.

  88. 88.

    Almost Retired

    @trollhattan:  You’re getting it tonight.  The rain should hit us about the same time as the Grammy Awards tomorrow afternoon.   I’ll be able to smell the wet rappers from my house.

  89. 89.

    zhena gogolia

    @karen gail: Because the dog was abandoned by choice, by a powerful man who could afford to take care of the dog. That’s why people were outraged.

  90. 90.

    dmsilev

    @Odie Hugh Manatee: Congratulations on your escape.

    We had a couple of infiltrators at work last week; they apparently snuck in, waylaid the normal campus catering people who were setting up trays of cookies for some event, and substituted their own platters. You see, like all good pushers, the first sample is free…

  91. 91.

    trollhattan

    @dmsilev: Seven or eight inches? I’d pack the car (granted, we’re flat as a billiard table here and water can only run off so fast).

    The winds mean a lot of trees coming down.

  97. 97.

    Salty Sam .

    @trollhattan: But for Ann Richards I might agree…

    You misunderstood me-  Ann Richards was the HIGH point from which the GOP has consistently coughed up worse than the previous.

    I loved Ann!

  98. 98.

    Nukular Biskits

    @trollhattan:

    I just got back from Oahu, where it rained on/off almost the entire damned trip.  NotMax assures me this is the normally rainy time of the year but I don’t remember it raining this much on my previous trips (which, admittedly were at least 10 years ago)?

    Watching the NWS radar, it seemed fronts were moving east. Is that what’s hitting your neck of the woods?

    Also … El Nino?

  100. 100.

    Odie Hugh Manatee

    @dmsilev:

    Ah, you got the cookie gang and their dealer at your end…lol! Yup, just a bit to hook ya in and you’re theirs!

    It’s outta control I tells ya…

    @dmsilev:

    Just make sure that you don’t end up with two lions on the ark.

  104. 104.

    Odie Hugh Manatee

    @Baud:

    I’m blaming this on Kamala. Biden is too old to be blamed for this.

    @dmsilev:

    Genius! A kid using her mom to distract the unwary while she rakes in the cash and racks up victims.

  109. 109.

    schrodingers_cat

    @JaySinWA: BJ has become more a lifestyle and fundraising blog rather than a political blog. I am not complaining necessarily just stating the obvious. Twitter (fuck Elon Musk) is where I go for breaking political news these days.

  111. 111.

    dmsilev

    @Odie Hugh Manatee: That seemed to be the strategy, yes.

    (kid didn’t actually seem all that optimistic of making sales. Mom, who does actually work here, was pointing out that setting up shop right outside a room where a bunch of people were congregating and expecting snacks was a Good Market Opportunity. Listen to your parents, kids…)

  118. 118.

    JPL

    @Baud: Isn’t she the one who believes in the magic of crystals, or something like that?   OMG  Imagine being Philips and dumping a lot of money into the race and losing to her.

  122. 122.

    lowtechcyclist

    @dmsilev:

    AP just called the SC primary for Biden. With 13% of the vote counted, he’s ‘only’ at about 97%.

    Sweet!

    And Dean Philips is in third behind Marianne Williamson.

    Icing on the cake – deelish!

  124. 124.

    smith

    @JaySinWA: He hired a signature-gathering company. I guess that’s what you do when you have no supporters and no volunteers. The company decided that fraud was the easiest way to get it done, which I guess is apt when working for a candidate who represents the mobster-oligarch voting bloc.

  130. 130.

    A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)

    @Alison Rose: Yeah, me too. I’ve donated to him and hope for the best.  I first noticed him after Jan. 6th, when he and another fellow ex NFL player took their jackets off in the House chamber, ready to rumble with the MAGA mob.

  133. 133.

    JaySinWA

    @smith: Wait a minute, I didn’t think there was just one mobster oligarch group.

    I’m pretty sure Donny has the Russian faction pretty well in hand, although I believe they like to hedge their bets,

  135. 135.

    WaterGirl

    @schrodingers_cat: That’s what I am saying.  It’s been over 10 weeks since we have had a single political fundraising post.

    Maybe it feels like that, but I’m pretty sure that Anne Laurie, Betty Cracker and I each put up one or more political posts pretty much every day.

    John’s post are mostly lifestyle these days, I’ll give you that!

  138. 138.

    Ken

    I’m betting Trump doesn’t get anywhere near 97% in the South Carolina Republican primary.

    I also bet the media will hail whatever Trump does get as a landslide victory, while opining what Biden has to do to bring back that disaffected 3%.

  139. 139.

    marcopolo

    @NotoriousJRT: I’m doing monthlies for Tester, Brown, and Gallego.  We have to hold all three.  I feel okay about holds in PA (Casey) and MN (Smith).  In terms of pick up opportunities, Allred has as good a chance as anyone–lol, better than our chances in FL.  So if you want to throw him some coin, well, go for it.  Better odds than Kunce beating Hawley in MO (which is my state & yes I am also doing a small monthly for Kunce).

  142. 142.

    smith

    @JaySinWA: True, and Nikki Haley has another bunch behind her. I guess you can’t say the GQP isn’t a big tent (What? Did I just hear that Philips ran in the Dem primary? That can’t be right!)

  143. 143.

    Jackie

    When is Joe expected to give his victory speech? Or is he supposed to wait for Phillips and Williamson to concede?

    I’m fully aware Biden doesn’t NEED to give a speech, but honestly, it’s a good way to thank and acknowledge his supporters – especially his black supporters.

  144. 144.

    Another Scott

    Meanwhile, …

    Samuel Bendett
    @sambendett
    12h

    I am shocked (not)! Russia’s FSB noticed a brand new DJI Mavic2 Enterprise Advanced quadro for sale (400K rubles) online – they checked the serial number – turns out the drone was MOD property and was posted by a soldier responsible for storing UAVs for the military. t.me/bazabazon/24954

    [ image of tweet ]

    Feb 3, 2024 · 12:49 PM UTC

    I agree, it’s shocking, shocking.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  145. 145.

    Quadrillipede

    I mean, Joe Biden is old.

    Lord Trolldemort is a malodorous juvenile drug-addicted criminal immoral narcissistic pervert. Who is also old.

    It’s a tough call… 🤔

  146. 146.

    Eolirin

    @WaterGirl: I don’t think there’s anything wrong with BJ being a political fundraising and lifestyle blog.

    I think “political” blogs are mostly just an excuse for ignorant punditry to blather on about shit they don’t know anything about to minimal effect. We don’t really need more of that shit in the world.

    What you all focus on feels a lot more personal and grounded in the real world.

    I like that we focus on actually useful things here and then also have subject matter experts providing good content on narrowly scoped topics that they actually know a bunch about.

  147. 147.

    WaterGirl

    @Jackie:

    Next you’ll be suggesting that some of these 3rd party people running as democrats don’t have Democratic interests at heart!

    *Yeah, it’s clear that he doesn’t have Democratic interests at heart here.

  148. 148.

    Geminid

    @schrodingers_cat: Dean Phillips has already said he won’t run for reelection. He had little chance of making it past the primary anyway. Minnesota Democrats don’t like him any more than Arizona Democrats like Kyrsten Sinema.

  151. 151.

    Ken

    @WaterGirl: Okay, I found the tweet.

    I salute your search skills. Every time I go to a twitter account, it shows me an apparently random collection of posts from the past few years.

    For example the top five from the MuellerSheWrote account are January 2021, December 2022, April 2023, August 2022, and May 2022.

  153. 153.

    WaterGirl

    @Ken: Ah.  That’s because I don’t go exactly go through twitter.

    I have a dozen or so twitter tabs open in my browser, so I see exactly what i was to see.  One is (fake) Jack Smith, another is MuellerSheWrote, another is Andrew Weissman, etc.

    So I don’t see what twitter presents to me – I go straight to the people i want, using my browser.

  154. 154.

    A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)

    @dmsilev:

    And Dean Philips is in third behind Marianne Williamson.

    Ooh, that’s gotta burn. Bye, bye, Deano.

  155. 155.

    smith

    @marcopolo: Kunce is another one I’ve been hearing about — it fits the pattern of a Dem running against a supposedly very unpopular R incumbent. The one thing that might help Kunce somewhat is that there is a chance an abortion access ballot initiative will be on the ballot in Nov.

    On the other hand, if I’m going to send money to MO, I might as well send it to the people trying to get the initiative on the ballot. They raised $1 million the first day of fundraising, so there may be hope. Unfortunately, they started late, and have to get the signatures in sometime in May.

  156. 156.

    Quadrillipede

    About 90% of the time if I click on a Xwitxer URL, I get just the OP, with a seemingly permanent loading circle animation where the replies ought to be. Makes the site look broken IMO.

  158. 158.

    WaterGirl

    @Ken: Elmo is fucking with people’s accounts, ghost banning them, etc.  He is despicable and disgusting.

    The photo of MBS, Jared, and Elmo together makes me want to vomit.  When people show you who they are, believe them.

  159. 159.

    Odie Hugh Manatee

    @schrodingers_cat:

    Taking it hard that John has hooked up with someone, eh? If you include your excellent artwork it’s a kind of art gallery too!

    It’s a Rorschach blog… it is whatever you think it is.

  162. 162.

    marcopolo

    @smith: we will get the signatures, though the organizers have said they need another $4 million.  i’ve already seen invites to signature signing events–they are requiring folks to sign up before they tell them where the signature collections are taking place. I guess they are worried about nutty anti choice folks which is a valid concern.  once i figure out a way to get my 90 yr old mom to a signing event our sigs will join the list.

    as for Kunce, i just think MO demographics suck for Ds here now. too many old & poorly educated white people & not enough of us in st louis, kc, and columbia to counterbalance them. last time McCaskill won (2012) she was getting 30-35% of the rural vote.  In 2018 when Hawley beat her that had fallen off to 20-25%.  It is the nationalization of partisan politics. hell, in 2008 Obama only lost MO by ~4000 votes.  hard to believe that now.

  164. 164.

    dm

    @Ken: Thanks.  Never read that story before, though I think I’ve heard the central idea described (only starting with paper-clips).

    I’ve been intrigued by a pair of bikes that I see at the local high school bike rack.  One of them is a nice (single speed, maybe a fixie) bike, the other a little grubbier, also single-speed.  Neither is ever locked.  They’re just (almost) always there (one of them was gone one day, but then it was back the next time I walked past the rack).

  169. 169.

    FelonyGovt

    @Alison Rose: Maybe they belong to restaurant servers or other night time workers who take them out after dark and return them before the sun is up (in the same positions)?

    Or maybe the owners are waiting until summer to use them?

  171. 171.

    Ruckus

    @Big Fly:

    You got it wrong.

    It’s not Fuck Ted Cruz.

    It’s  –  FUCK TED CRUZ

    With a full garbage truck. Start with a full tank of fuel and don’t stop till it’s gone. I’d bet you’d be able to sell tickets to watch – purchase more fuel – and to drive.

  172. 172.

    Jeffro

    Meanwhile, Herr Johnson’s House has decided that there is no aid to be had for Ukraine or the border…

    …the puppet strings, they are becoming so apparent that even our blessed low-info voters might be able to pick up on them.

    Putin – – > trumpov – – > Johnson

    Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) threatened using a motion that led the way for former Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to be ousted as speaker if Johnson brings a bill aiding Ukraine to the House floor, while Rep. Chip Roy (R-Tex.) has floated triggering the measure if Johnson brings up border security legislation for a vote.

    I hope the Senate kills the House bill, but even if they pass it, I hope Biden vetoes it and walks straight out to the cameras to let the country know what’s what here.

  176. 176.

    Geminid

    @dm: I’ve read that O’Rourke helped down-ballot Denocrats. That was especially important in a midterm election.

    Joe Biden ought to help them this time. Democratic turnout relative to that of Republicans is usually best in a Presidential year.

  177. 177.

    Jackie

    @Jeffro: Absolutely!

    And I hope when Biden explains WHY he refuses to sign it, he includes that That Sick Fuck is behind the stupid shenanigans of why Ukraine and Border funding are excluded.

  178. 178.

    Ruckus

    @zhena gogolia:

    I think it is.

    I believe that Beto’s problem is that he comes across as not a texan. He talks and sounds like a non texan to me. That’s not a swat at texans I’ve had family that lived there, but it, like a lot of areas in this country have different ways of speaking. And to me his isn’t texan.

  179. 179.

    Anotherlurker

    @trollhattan: I was planning to do some Trout fishing in the San Pablo Reservoir, in Orinda, next week. High water might shut down the bite, which was quite good, yesterday.  I might have to rethink that plan.

  180. 180.

    satby

    @smith: The county I happen to live in 😂😂😂 And the fakes were, I heard from a former poll worker, 300 different names all in the same handwriting. Didn’t even bother to try to vary it at all.

  181. 181.

    Odie Hugh Manatee

    @schrodingers_cat:

    I think there’s a lot of political stories posted that interest the lifestyles of those of us that hang here. I read the news and find additional information on those stories here quite often. Users post lots of great links to other stories out there that relate to their interests. AL, Adam and David all post very relevant and important information that is very political in the areas that they cover.

    I don’t come here for news but rather to say stupid shit and talk to others about stupid shit. It’s one of two places I do so online.

  183. 183.

    satby

    @zhena gogolia: Back in the day we had a lot of breaking news posts, but that had to be years ago now. Maybe a decade. And a lot less cup rattling.

    Edit: and I suspect it’s a factor in why a lot of familiar names have drifted off, because a lot of them are still very active online in other places.

  186. 186.

    Yutsano

    @Ruckus: ​Beto is a native Texan. Beto’s problem is that he’s a Texan from the city. I know several Texans who are from the Dallas area and none of them have accents. Once you’re beyond the suburbs the accents get thicker and thicker. And the attitudes change as they get thicker*. My theory is that there were just enough people who didn’t vote because of how Beto came off. My hope is that Colin won’t have as much of an issue with that.

    *Does not apply to every Texan outside the cities as we all know we libz are everywhere.

  189. 189.

    Ruckus

    @trollhattan:

    I’m expecting at least 3-4 inches here in the foothills.

    I still remember the late 60s with the 40 days of rain, all the drainage channels – like the LA river, were full past the brim. I crossed a small 2 lane bridge in Glendora that the water was lapping over the road. I’m not expecting this to be that level but it won’t be summer sprinkles. I live in the eastern SG Valley and we really are expecting that 3-4 inches tomorrow.

  190. 190.

    Big Fly

    @Ruckus:

    {Eyes downcast} You’re absolutely right. It was probably the Bloody Mary that muddled my senses, but I’ll do better next time. Promise!

  192. 192.

    schrodingers_cat

    @Odie Hugh Manatee: There are many political stories get almost no coverage here. Immigration for one. The House Republicans are trying to impeach Mayorkas. I don’t think I have seen a single post about it.

    Yes there are political posts but the blog used to be more topical before.

  193. 193.

    Ruckus

    @satby:

    Over the years this has become a rather familiar place to a fair number of people, like me and you, and a lot of the people that hung around a few years ago might not have wanted that level of participation. It’s more like a club than a sounding board.

  195. 195.

    Lyrebird

    @marcopolo: I think Kunce is running a way better campaign this time around and has a much bigger sliver of a chance!

    Hawley gives Cruz some real competition in the repulsive toady department, too.

  196. 196.

    Lyrebird

    @Yutsano: Also, FOOTBALL.  I really admire Beto and his work on GOTV in Texas probably brought a few races over the line for downballot candidates.  But in TX, skater boy vs football star is a big difference.

  197. 197.

    Gretchen

    I’m trying not to be hopeful about the MO Senate race but it would be so satisfying to see Josh Hawley lose. Lucas Kunce is a combat veteran who is calling out his fist raise and running away on January 6.

  198. 198.

    satby

    @Ruckus: It was a bit clubby even back in the General Stuck days; but the political stuff [now] tends to repeat, and the non-political stuff is even more repetitive. I get that we’re all older, but I don’t think most of us are really ready for the memory care wing quite yet.

  199. 199.

    Sandia Blanca

    I first gave money to Colin Allred back in 2018, when he first ran for Congress (and won!). He called me personally to ask for a donation. I had not heard of him before, so he told me about his background and his policies. Ever since, I’ve been a fan, and a happy sustaining donor. I wish I could speak for my fellow Texans in predicting a certain victory for him, but as some have noted above, it all depends on turnout here. I’m doing voter registration, and will work the voter hotline at election time, and in the meantime will do all I can to help Allred beat that scumbag Cruz.

  201. 201.

    Soprano2

    @dmsilev: Ugh that’s awful. I hope you don’t have any flooding. I feel sorry for your sewer department, storms like that are the worst because everyone is calling and there’s nothing you can do for them because you can’t make it stop raining.

  202. 202.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @Alison Rose: Avram Davidson, “Or All The Seas With Oysters.” 1958 Hugo Award, Best Short Story. Here’s a PDF – it’s a good quick read, and you will never ever ever look at paper clips, coathangers, or bicycles the same again.

    @Ken: You bastard.

  203. 203.

    Soprano2

    @schrodingers_cat: I don’t agree,  there’s lots of good political content here. The SC primary is a foregone conclusion; I expect we’ll see a post on it tomorrow or overnight.

  206. 206.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @Mai Naem mobile: i hadn’t heard anything about BJ targeting the Native vote in Montana. ​

    Really??!?!!? It’s literally in the sideboard here as I type: Balloon Juice for Four Directions – Montana, $32,591 raised

  207. 207.

    Soprano2

    @smith: Yeah, because of major ratfuckery by our R Sec of State and R State Treasurer. One of them tried to say the financial effect of the ballot measures would be billions of dollars; the other one whose responsibility it is to decide that said no, there’s no effect. It took several months to litigate it. I think it was all planned and deliberate. Don’t know if Kunce can beat Hawley, but he’s a good candidate.

  208. 208.

    RevRick

    I’m going to be blunt. No!

    This is yet another example of Democrats foolishly wasting their money chasing Republicans we loathe.

    How much went to Amy McGrath against Mitch McConnell? How much went to Jaime Harrison against? How much went to “what’s his name grifter” against MTG?
    The only way Allred has a chance against Cruz is if Biden wins Texas. Period.

    Meanwhile, chasing this delusion may mean starving the Democratic races in the Biden/GOP Rep House districts or holding the unsexy Democratic Senate seats in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
    Priorities folks!

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