Josh Marshall at TPM made a point yesterday about the current moment in U.S. politics that rang true to me, at least partially. He was talking about the debate about Biden’s age, which IMO isn’t unwarranted but is completely pointless:
A lot of this “debate” comes down to the fact that people do not or cannot get their heads around the idea that Trump is popular. Roughly enough Americans want Donald Trump to be President again. We’ll find out in November if it’s just under enough, as it was in 2020, or just over, as it was in 2016. But in terms of who we are as Americans and the state of the country, that’s not a huge difference. For a lot of people it’s easier to inflate their own sense of agency, or that of the community they imagine themselves a part of, by believing that Trump’s ability to get elected can only be the product of Democrats’ mistakes. So Trump’s beatable, it’s just that Democrats are putting up a weak candidate, Joe Biden. Or Trump’s beatable, but Democrats are controlled by establishment neo-liberals. Or Trump’s beatable, but Democrats are too woke.
My quibble is I don’t think Trump is as popular as generally supposed. He owns a large enough plurality of the GOP base to rule the Republican Party through fear. But as we’ve discussed, he’s yet to crack 60% in a primary contest, which isn’t exactly a “strongman” result.
That said, I think Marshall may be right when he says there’s an element of denial among some folks who oppose Trump, a reluctance to accept that tens of millions of our fellow citizens are eager to restore an embarrassing fascist buffoon to power. I struggle to accept that myself, and I live among his supporters and therefore see daily evidence that the enthusiasm for his narcissistic effluvia and demagoguery is real.
Open thread.
On The Road – TKH – Sinai Trail Part 1
TBone
I don’t care if it rains or freezes, long as I got my plastic Jeezus, ridin’ on the dashboard my truck. He don’t slip and he don’t slide, ’cause his ass is magnetized, ridin’ on the dashboard of my truck!
No power, lotsa snow, no coffee. Whatsa girl to do but sing? Dunkin!
TBone
As has been anecdotally noted here (and there), his popularity may be on the wane as evidenced by the dwindling numbers of fascists willing to advertise for him in public. Campaign signs and flags are very sparse even as compared to this time last year. Not to suggest that we shouldn’t be wary, ’cause I got my Virgin Mary, protecting those who travel far…
Shalimar
The 55% of Republicans who strongly support Trump and want him to do this or that evil are the scary ones. But the other 45% have been so indoctrinated against Democrats that they will vote for Trump as the lesser of two evils even though they can’t say for sure what is evil about Biden. It takes both sets of these assholes to get Trump close enough to winning to steal it.
Baud
I’ve called this the Blame Democrats First phenomenon, but Josh explains it more thoroughly. Agree 100%.
I’ll just add the people’s psychological inability to recognize that Trump’s popularity with his supporters is not the result of our failures but of our successes has the effect of increasing Trump’s chances of winning.
Ten Bears
Boiled down to ones and zeros: the Boomers, and I am one, just won’t let go …
Jeffg166
Half the people who actually show up to vote will back TFG. He won in the electoral college in 2016 by 77,744 votes. Biden won 2020 in the electoral college by 42,844 votes. Not an overwhelming victory. Every vote will matter.
Rusty
TPM was particularly depressing yesterday, that post but others. When we got to closed primaries we will really see the strength of Trump. Iowa and New Hampshire allowed for cross over voting, the Democratic primary was seen as non competitive so independents and even some Democrats voted in the Republican primary instead. Exit polling in New Hampshire had Trump beating Haley 74 to 24 among actual Republicans. The next couple of closed primaries will make clear the dominance of Trump in their party. I’m willing to bet Haley pulls similar numbers in her home state, and less everywhere else.
TBone
I had a pen pal who lived in Virginia (originally from my PA hometown in DelCo) who went so far left she’s a vatnik and a TERF and I had to dump her. She used to sign letters “Squishy hugs” and I always thought it was kinda creepy. I didn’t know the slang usage of squishy. Was she insulting me the whole time?
Patricia Kayden
@Rusty: I’ve read that Trump is dominating in the South Carolina primaries. Haley has enough $$$ to keep running but I doubt she’s going to win even one primary. It’s a cult and Trump is the koolaid-dispensing leader.
Betty Cracker
@Rusty: Good point about closed primaries. A recent CBS poll has Trump beating Haley 65% to 35% in SC. So he’s breaking the 60% threshold in a super-MAGA state, but is that really a great result for the de facto incumbent and undisputed leader of his party?
Maybe not. But Haley was governor there; she probably won’t do as well in other states. My point is, I think Republicans genuinely have a party unity problem. But like Shalimar observed at #3, the Republicans who don’t want Trump are likely to show up for him anyway out of negative partisanship. I hope (and believe) the same is true on our side.
@Baud: Could be due to my under caffeinated state, but I’m not sure I understand the point you’re making in paragraph #2.
TBone
JFC no wonder I’m singing Plastic Jesus today.
https://digbysblog.net/2024/02/12/this-is-real-folks/
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
When we spend time talking about what’s wrong with us instead of what’s wrong with them, we’re messaging to the outside audience that there’s lots of things wrong with us. The effect is to deter people from joining us in fighting them.
TBone
@Baud: 🛟
NeenerNeener
@TBone: I don’t care if it’s dark and scary, long as I’ve got my Virgin Mary…
I lurk on a gossip site sometimes, and the commenters there are largely QAnon. The comments on the game Sunday night were all about Ice Spice and her Satanic hand gestures, and how Biden rigged the game. Absolutely bonkers.
Foghorn453
One of my obsessive hobbyhorses is that the Electoral College is damaging because it allows for discrepancies between the popular and electoral margins. The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is still only at 206 electoral votes, and it’s not clear what happens if it reaches a majority.
OzarkHillbilly
FWIW Betty, and I know it’s not much, here in the Hills and Hollers, I have noticed his support here is rather muted, to say the least. The hard core still fly their trump flags, and still have his stickers on their trucks etc, but the numbers of such are far fewer than in 2020 and I am hard pressed to recall the last time I saw a MAGA hat. My feeling is that most of the populace are just as worn down by him as we are.
Whether that translates into them staying home on election day or not I would not venture a guess. Yet. But I won’t be surprised if a fair # just don’t vote in November. Will it be enough to make a difference? Don’t know, hopefully I’ll have a better feel for the vote in September.
TBone
@NeenerNeener: ❤️ Cool Hand Luke. Qanon drives me to drink! Hubby went to Dunkin, all is right with the world and I’m thankful we have a gas fireplace for heat!
RandomMonster
What the hell am I up this early for?! Oh yeah, jury duty.
Princess
@TBone: There is a steady drumbeat of very disturbing messages by “them” about “us” that a sizable fraction are hearing daily — accusations of satanism, pedophilia, etc etc.
Betty Cracker
@Baud: Got it — thanks! I don’t disagree but sometimes struggle with where to draw the line on that. One reason I am a Democrat is because I like that we’re capable of critiquing ourselves, learning from mistakes and trying to do better. Not always! And not always fast enough! But I think our model is more likely to be electorally successful than Republicans’ “always double down” strategy and also conducive to making real progress.
TBone
@Foghorn453: it’s our Achilles Heel.
TBone
@Princess: I’m very aware of it but it is still shocking in its vulgarity and stupidity.
MagdaInBlack
@TBone: “Leftist icon Taylor Swift” and Satanic hand gestures from Ice Spice.
These people live in some magical reality I cannot access. TG.
TBone
@MagdaInBlack: you said it, sista! Virtual reality glasses! I prefer mine rose colored.
Soprano2
@OzarkHillbilly: I see the same thing here, but I don’t know if it’s exhaustion with TFG or just that he doesn’t have much opposition and the election has just started here. I try not to talk to them about TFG because right now I don’t need the heartburn. All the R state government officials here are MAGA, and that’s all of them since they have unified control of the state government.
BlueGuitarist
@Foghorn453:
Re NPVIC: Rs don’t accept that Democrats should get the electoral votes of states we carry, so it seems very unlikely they’d accept that a Democrat can get the electoral votes of states where the R got more votes, they’ll try to block certification in congress and use SCOTUS.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
Sure, but the question is how we engage in that debate. If there’s no common ground on what Dems are responsible for and what they’re not, then it becomes a free for all mess that takes the focus from Republicans.
Betty Cracker
@OzarkHillbilly: Kay shared similar anecdata about her part of Ohio. I think the decrease in enthusiasm is real; it’s reflected in the primary results so far and national primary polling. But like you, I have no idea how that translates into general election votes.
I haven’t observed a clear drop-off in Trumpery where I live. Over the weekend, I got dragged to a flea market on a snipe hunt, and there were three separate booths selling MAGA merch. But like Twitter, Florida isn’t always real life, especially if you’re within 100 miles of The Villages.
BlueGuitarist
@OzarkHillbilly: Kay said something similar about NW Ohio.
eta: as BC already pointed out
TBone
@Betty Cracker: ugh. Are people still buying it (is there traffic at those booths) or are they desperate to offload Chinese merch? I have a former boss (attorney) who lives in The Villages and we still keep in touch. Maybe I should give him a call and take the temperature. He was always pretty cagey tho…there is a Dem party there someone here posted about recently.
ant
For me, lately, I’ve been following the following exercise when Republicans do or say something that doesn’t make sense: I apply the DRFDCOP standard.
Different rules for different classes of people.
I assume that this principle is the foundation of the party, and is what motivates their voters. I identify the different rules, and the different class(s) of people, and figure out what is going on.
In the case of TFG, he is in the white male born into privlige class, and also a Republican. In a lot of ways, so is Biden, but we need to take into account of who his VP is, and who he appoints to powerful positions in the government like the Supreme Court. Also, he is a Democrat of course.
The fact that TFG IS SO unsuitable to the office is precisely why they like him so much.
In the case of Ice Spice and her satanic symbols, they are just saying that she aint knowin’ her place and is uppity, nothing more. The Christian angle is gaslighting.
Baud
MSNBC just reported that Lindsey is voting against the Ukraine bill because Trump said so.
Chris Johnson
Innuendo Studios nailed it in the video ‘Always A Bigger Fish’.
There’s a bunch of humans that just straight up go for power and obedience to power. Pratchett called it an unfortunate tendency to bend at the knees… it’s just an animal nature, a deference to the bigger animal, part of our social behavior.
Those are the people who freak out at the idea of society being egalatarian, even when it’s more profitable for it to be egalatarian. They’d rather be in a real small town and have types of people not allowed to be there. They want rules, to feel safe under. (I think they can also be kinky in a way I never managed, for the same reasons)
If it was that simple, we’d just do that, but first world nation states are more complicated and don’t work when it’s that simple.
So we gotta get by as well as we can, dragging these people unwillingly behind, or remain a really small town limited by our stultification. We can be New York City, or, y’know, Innsmouth. Up to us really.
Geminid
Polls open soon in Long Island, where Tom Suozzi and Mazi Pilip contend in the NY 3rd Special Election. Polls have shown Suozzi with a 3-4% lead, right around the margin of error. One also showed Democrats than Republicans intended to vote early. That could help Suozzi because it will be a snowy day in Hempstead. A coffee toast to “Wintry Mix”!
And a shout out to Democratic Rep. Grace Meng! Her district borders the 3rd, and Rep. Meng has been campaigning hard for Suozzi in his district’s Asian communities.
Chris Johnson
@Baud: Well, I don’t like that. Lindsey is a weathervane so the question is whether he’s deferring to the state of the republican party, or whether he has some reason to believe he has to. At times when Trump is more clearly fucked, Lindsey betrays him. Let’s hope he is guided solely by popularity among Republicans: maybe he was hoping primaries would turn out differently, and it’s as simple as that.
Soprano2
@Betty Cracker: It’s good to be aware that your and my corner of the world isn’t necessarily representative of everywhere. I know people who don’t grasp this; it’s part of the reason why they can’t believe Biden won the election, because most of the people they know voted for TFG. They don’t believe there are lots of places where he’s unpopular.
Jeffro
trump’s return to the WH is only possible because of two things: the Electoral College and huge amounts of big-donor dark money propping up the rotting shell of the GOP.
Fixing those two things probably ought to stay high on our list of priorities.
Baud
@Geminid:
Good for Meng.
Dobbs may be less salient of an issue for a wealthy district in NY.
OzarkHillbilly
@OzarkHillbilly: I should make a clarification: it won’t make enough of a difference here in blood red Misery, but in the purple states it just might.
Soprano2
@Geminid: I heard a story on NPR that said Pilip is an Orthodox Jew. That’s the first I heard that. I hope the early voting thing is true, because that definitely could make a difference.
JWR
Watching all this “Joe Biden is old” BS, I can’t help but think that it’s a non-story. Yes, 81 is a pretty advanced age to do what he’s doing, but absent any signs of dementia, his experience should make up for not only his age, but for his stutter as well. Bring it up when he starts talking like Trump. But all these newsreaders pushing the idea that Biden is old, over and over like they do, can only translate to a Normie brain that hey, everyone’s talking about it, and so I too am concerned, which is good for another “Bad For Biden” news cycle. I wonder if these pollsters ask every Dem they ask about the age thing also ask them how likely it is to affect their vote.
Jeffro
@Foghorn453:
@TBone:
agreed!
For that new Dan Pink column in the Post, where he asked for folks to submit their innovative ideas, I suggested a constitutional amendment that lowers the threshold for constitutional amendments (so that we only have to hit the current, ridiculous threshold one last time). Hint, hint.
Marmot
TFG needs every last Repub vote, but a plurality of Haley voters say they’ll vote Biden. (43% of Haley voters in an Iowa poll.)
Am I too focused on this? Looks like an Achilles heel to me, but some of y’all are in deep worry mode.
Geminid
@Baud:
Grace > Mace.
Frank Wilhoit
Trump is not signal. He is noise.
The signal is the signal that the American people sent on 4 November 1980.
If anything has changed — and Occam’s Razor says nothing has changed, because how could it? — it is the overtaking of the infantility of the eternal peasant by the infantility of devolution. That is an interesting study but it may have no practical effect.
The people are the problem. But they are not a problem because they [appear to] want Trump. They are a problem because what they want is universal destruction — yes, including their own. They reject the implications of existence. Their emotional ignorance is complete, therefore they have no ability to process their surroundings.
And they think we are their problem. They are in such pain that we must be causing it, because who else is there?
But ultimately their enemy is life itself. They cannot come to terms with it because no one ever taught them anything. So all they can do is destroy it — not a small task, but they will never give up on it.
OzarkHillbilly
@Soprano2: Glad to hear my Miserable observations aren’t just hopeful eyes.
We used to have a traveling trump merch tent pop up in Sullivan 2 or 3 times a year. I haven’t seen it in well over a year.
Geminid
@Soprano2: Pilip was born in Ethiopia; her family migrated to Israel when she was a child, and then she migrated to Long Island.
Like Suozzi, Meng was chosen by her local party commitee, as there were no primaries for this special election.
Baud
@Marmot:
I don’t bother reading tea leaves.
Jack the Cold Warrior
The Josh Marshall quote contains a big mistake TRUMP LOST THE 2016 POPULAR VOTE BY 3 MILLION. Only 78000 votes in 3 states gave Trump an Electoral College win.
RevRick
@Jeffg166: Actually, not every vote. Only the votes in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will count, plus perhaps Arizona and Georgia, will count. All the excess votes Biden will pile up in California and New York will be irrelevant to the cockamamie Electoral College.
Living in an urban neighborhood where Biden will win about 60% of the vote, I’m somewhat insulated from Trump supporters, but I just have to drive a few miles outside of Allentown and I know I’ll see Trump signs sprout up like weeds. And I know all those Trump voters are all about whiteness. Their ranting about crime and the borders are the tells, because those are coded by race.
BlueGuitarist
House Rs want Hur as a witness, to Benghazi his report.
And Make Attorneys Get Attorneys, Hur has hired attorney William Burck.
Better to file the report under Never to be opened again.
Princess
My understanding was that Trump won in 2016 because he motivated a whole bunch of people who never vote at all to come out for him. So my question is, are the people who are lukewarm for him now, those people, or are they more ordinary GOP voters? If the latter, Trump will do fine because regular voters will vote for him (just as this crowd does for the Dems). If he has turned off new voters, he has a problem because independents are definitely a weak spot for him. My suspicion however is the new people he brought in are mostly still keen and support him.
dkatz319
@Baud: Murc’s Law: Only Democrats have agency. Therefore anything that happens, good or bad, is on the Democrats, because…wash, rinse, repeat.
Matt McIrvin
I think we have to be prepared to lose.
That’s not to say we will lose. But we have to be figuring out what we will do to survive and preserve or restore some semblance of a decent society if we lose. A lot depends on what a resurgent Trump administration is willing to do. We might need a plan for survival as an underground movement under 50 or 100 years of violent tyranny. Maybe it isn’t something we can talk about in an open forum.
The truth is that many, perhaps most of the people we interact with daily and even love are monsters, who in some abstract sense want us dead, or at least down. Can there even be a democratic society under those conditions? Can there be a country, instead of a universal war? Do we even deserve to survive and have a decent society? How do you avoid being a monster, to survive?
We have the huge disadvantage that we play by rules–we’re not the ones inclined to do violent or criminal things to get our way.
We have the advantage that the other side is actually pretty dumb.
But if it’s really true that in the end it’s war of all against all and the only thing for it is to kill our neighbors, I’m pretty sure I’m not going to do it. I’m getting old and I was always bad at violence. I hate it and it grinds my spirit down to think about it all the time. I’ll probably just die under those conditions–it’s someone else’s fight.
TBone
@Jeffro: excellent suggestion. Oh, would that reality sink in. I use the word would very wistfully here.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
Yes. This isn’t 2016. We shouldn’t be surprised.
I’m proud of you, man.
TBone
@Jack the Cold Warrior: good catch
OzarkHillbilly
@dkatz319: Nothing good ever happens because of anything DEMs do. Everything DEMs do takes the US one step closer to annihilation. Just ask any MAGA head.
evodevo
@TBone:
We dodged the bullet here in north central KY – weatherman was saying 4-8 last night, and it all went south of I-64…sorry, Danville and Pikeville! We got nuttin’ – no snow, not even rain, and it’s supposed to be 45 today. Hooray! I like this kind of winter…
Baud
@Princess:
Both parties are constantly gaining and losing people. We’ve been is a rough equilibrium state since at least 1992. Hard to predict how that will affect the next election.
TBone
@Matt McIrvin: I have a plan that includes flight to an urban area where a Black, ex-military friend lives where we can hole up and FIGHT if necessary. Fantasy meets reality only in my fever dreams, hopefully.
TBone
@evodevo: enjoy that! Still without power here, grateful for BJ community staving off boredom and too much solitude which I usually cherish.
KrackenJack
@Chris Johnson:
Is that the subtle call out to Cthulhu?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Shadow_over_Innsmouth
Another Scott
@OzarkHillbilly: I’ve mentioned before that the handful of Turnip flags and banners in my NoVA subdivision were suddenly gone January 7, 2021.
We hear about his remaining cult members, and the elected officials that are afraid of them, but his actual support has fallen a lot. Remember that they were hoping/expecting many times the number of people who actually showed up on January 6.
We cannot be complacent, and small numbers can do a lot of damage, but we are beating them.
Let’s do the work and Finish the Job.
Cheers,
Scott.
TBone
@Another Scott: cheers!
Baud
The BBC headline on my feed calls Trump’s DC indictment the “2020 election case.”
Baud
@Another Scott:
You’re not the boss of me.
Frankensteinbeck
@Rusty:
The same percentage that always do. It didn’t go up compared to competitive primary years.
Marmot
@Baud: In a thread thick with worry about what another group of people might think about yet another round of old-President hype and the foot traffic around booths at flea markets, I’m surprised my comment stands out as a reading of tea leaves.
TBone
@Baud: now I have an earworm 😂 have you ever heard that silly song?
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@OzarkHillbilly:
Having been back to my former, blood-red, section of Misery many times since 2018, and being in touch with plenty of people there, I (and they) have noted the muted, on-display support for Hair Furor isn’t what it used to be. Actually, back in 2016 when we were still there, it never was although it sure as hell was on display in voting patterns.
This has been in sharp contrast to what we’ve seen in WY and ID on road trips since we moved back here. JFC, the out-loud-and-proud Orange Fart Cloud support was in sharp contrast to Misery. On my most recent trips to WY, it seemed less but again, that won’t translate to the ballot box in places like ID, WY and MO.
I wonder about a state like NC not to mention tight Congressional races. Any RWNJ who stays at home is a bonus.
TBone
https://tenor.com/view/stripes-francis-francis-lighten-up-francis-smile-gif-15160085
lowtechcyclist
@RevRick:
Add Nevada and North Carolina to your list, but other than that, you’re right on target.
TBone
HOLY COW A WIDOW MAKER JUST CAME DOWN IN DRIVEWAY. NARROW MISS!
praise be
zhena gogolia
@Marmot: Yes, I think I have to stay away from this sackcloth-and-ashes thread this morning, as our woods fill up with snow.
Baud
@Marmot:
My comment could have been directed at others too.
Another Scott
Senate passed Ukraine funding – 70-29.
Good, good.
Yeah, yeah. The House. Let’s make them do their jobs.
Cheers,
Scott.
NotMax
Germane synopsis of some interest: Conservatives Want Their Own Economy. Call it riling for dollars.
Baud
@Another Scott:
That’s good. I guess Lindsey felt comfortable being a Trump toady with those numbers.
TBone
@NotMax: bingo!
Matt McIrvin
@TBone: The only plan I really have is to do anything I can to help my family and protect my daughter. But she’s already ruled out the idea of leaving the United States to go to college (the red tape and potential for cultural friction associated with the best realistic prospect was a little too daunting, and when I talk about the US walking backwards into war or tyranny it just pisses her off). So that makes it scarier.
BlueGuitarist
@Another Scott:
Hill article says “Sens. Paul, Scott, Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.), Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) also took to the floor Monday night and early Tuesday morning to speak at length against funding Ukraine without securing the border.”
all I saw of it was Vance reading Dr Seuss.
But good that it passed the Senate.
Chief Oshkosh
@Princess:
Yep. And A LOT of those people truly believe in Bigfoot. I.e., they will believe absolutely anything if told to them by the right person.
Chief Oshkosh
@Betty Cracker: Agreed, we should be vigilant. But, given the state of the Republican Party, I don’t feel like I need to self-examine as a Democrat until…about the 5th of Never.
lowtechcyclist
@dkatz319:
In the context of a Presidential election, well, YEAH. The other side is the other side; what are we going to do, blame them for existing? When it comes to trying to win this election, who else besides us Democrats are we expecting help from? It’s up to us.
OzarkHillbilly
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: WY figures large in my past lives (many relatives there and I lived in Sheridan for 4+ mos in ’78). I get the Cowboy State Daily in my email now. It’s always been conservative but the CSD shows me they are now a !!RED!! state, and stupid too.
Sorry to see it.
NotMax
In the spirit of Carnival, a touch of Gilberto Gil.
Betty Cracker
@JWR: That would be a great question for pollsters to ask. I don’t blame the media entirely for making Biden’s age an issue. He is old and he presents as old, so it’s a legit issue. But as Biden often says, “Compare me to the alternative.”
Marmot
@Baud: Great! We are in total agreement then!
The worry is counterproductive. (Looking at you, Matt!) Biden is a great president, the country is better off, and they have TFG.
zhena gogolia
Let’s us Democrats keep talking about Biden’s age instead of his accomplishments until November. We’ll deserve what we get.
Try watching Tucker’s interview to see what awaits our country. I don’t have children, but those of you who do should be thinking about that.
NotMax
#87 meant for the thread upstairs.
;)
Baud
@lowtechcyclist:
Yes. We didn’t win WWII by telling people not to blame the Axis.
TBone
@Matt McIrvin: well it pisses everyone off so she’s in good company. Reality says that there are too many challenges for the RWNJs to overcome to truly enact their fetishist plans. At heart, they’re terrified, sad, weak poop.
TBone
@Baud: we didn’t coddle them!
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
I am heartened somewhat by the greater pushback. You wouldn’t have seen that in 2016. Can’t predict whether it’ll be enough.
Kay
I think it’s going to be an exhausting slog – often the case with re-elects IMO and this is not just a re elect but a rematch. I think we’re better at exausting slogs than they are, as evidenced by how they couldn’t even stick with it long enough to get Trump re-elected. They only managed to drag his fat ass over the finish line once and then they wandered off into The War On Woke and a million other things.
This one will reward perseverance and joyless, grim determination – we’re good at that! :)
JML
@dkatz319: except for the media, anything good that happens is in spite of the democrats. because the media is in the tank for the GOP.
Betty Cracker
@Chief Oshkosh: Sometimes the self-examination involves considering new tactics to win more consistently, so no, it can’t be put aside for the duration of the national emergency. What can and should be put aside is general election voting or withholding of votes to “send a message.
@Kay: Excellent point! ;-)
Baud
@TBone:
They’re just misunderstood.
I blame the Treaty of Versailles.
lowtechcyclist
@Another Scott:
Puts the heat on that little religious nutjob in the Speaker’s chair.
TBone
@Kay: perseverance. Let your hook always be cast. In the pool where you least expect it, will be a fish.
Baud
@Kay:
Rotating tag?
TBone
@Baud: 😆
TBone
@Baud: I use joy FOR grim determination.
lowtechcyclist
@Baud:
And we didn’t win it by blaming the Axis either. Sure, we recognized they were the Bad Guys, and that’s why we were fighting them. But that was the extent of it. Same here and now.
Betty Cracker
@lowtechcyclist: Now Speaker-Pastor Pornhub is demanding border concessions before he’ll take the bill up. It’s a farce.
Baud
@lowtechcyclist:
That’s all I’m asking for. I’m sorry to say that too many people in our side put their ego first and consider walking away from the fight if people don’t accept their ideas. It’s quite ironic since we’re the people who are supposed to believe in the power of collective action.
TBone
@Betty Cracker: chaos is the point always. And cruelty. Still we won’t be deterred.
TBone
@Baud: ❤️
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
It is. At least the farce is transparent.
Soprano2
@OzarkHillbilly: I don’t see the flags in trucks I used to see. There’s a house down the block from us that used to post “Fuck Biden” banners in their yard; I haven’t seen them in quite awhile. Maybe they moved, but the posts are still there.
Jackie
@TBone: TBone, where do you live? For some reason I’m drawing a caffeine deprived blank.
Soprano2
@Geminid: I heard a blurb for an interview with Suozzi on NPR where he said his party isn’t popular (!), and they’ve been losing at every level of government. All I could think is “what the hell world is he living in” and “why is he saying these things to a reporter?”.
Kay
@Baud:
All this does though is switch criticism away from our pols and to our voters. It doesn’t even makes sense as “positive messaging” because its a constant negative evaluation of our voters. If you really think positive messaging is key one would think you would stay away from “those bad college age voters are sometimes unhappy” or “those bad white women voters are sometimes disloyal”. This has a name among labor people – ‘slice and dice’ – it means you slice off “bad” coalition members from the whole thus making it easier for the opposition to “dice” the whole group. We don’t need to hold our politicians together by defending them. We need to hold our voter coalition together by supporting one another.
Kay
@Soprano2:
He’s terrible. He said the same things to the NYTimes last week so of course they assigned 17 reporters and stretched it out into a novel. I read it and I thought “Dear God he’s already blaming the Party in case he loses”. What an ego. Also, frankly, what a loser. If this is what he’s doing the day before the election maybe he deserves to lose.
Baud
@Kay:
I don’t disagree with that. But I reject the idea that everyone who might potentially vote for us can be considered “our voters.” They’re are all sorts of squishy people we need in order to win an election. And some of those will put their ego over the greater good. I’ll admit it’s hard to discern who falls in that class. But they exist IMHO and we should recognize that.
Subsole
@Ten Bears:
Nah. There are a lot of angry little Millennials (my cohort) out there carrying tiki torches and chanting…
Enhanced Voting Techniques
People seem to forget Trump had a TV show for years.
Kay
@Baud:
Ok. But “solidarity” never meant a large group of individuals all looking toward a leader. It means a large group of individuals supporting one another toward a cause. It isn’t millions of single lines going from individual to leader, it’s milllions of criss crossing lines to and between one another.
chrome agnomen
@OzarkHillbilly:
yeah I lived there for 15 years. 10 on the west side of the bighorns, 5 on the east side. they’re off the rails now. impossible for me, shy and reticent soul that I am, to go into a bar without provoking serious side-eye, at the least. I had to get out. beautiful country, but fucked up, ignorant as old dog shit people. too bad.
but that gubmint check better clear! and my BLM rights, don’t tread on me!
Baud
@Kay:
That’s fine. But mutual support can’t just exist when everyone is perfectly happy.
If some centrist doesn’t want to vote for Biden because of his labor policies, I’m not going to pretend I support that stance.
Kay
@Soprano2:
He really doesn’t have the temperament for this if he’s so fragile and afraid of losing that he starts pre-excusing himself 2 weeks prior. Weak, buddy, Maybe look into a less competitive profession.
Another Scott
I just sent a letter to my congressman (Don Beyer) via his web form. I urged him to find a way to get the Ukraine Supplemental passed in the House. Whether it’s via persuasion, discharge petition, temporary tweaks to immigration rules, whatever – just get it done.
His vote isn’t in doubt, but support from the peanut gallery never hurts.
Cheers,
Scott.
Suzanne
I think, at core, it is really difficult to accept this, because we want to believe that most people are normal and good (enough) and that we share reality.
But we really don’t. Lots of people — including some we really want to like or maybe do like — are pretty shitty people. And that hurts and it sucks.
Baud
@Soprano2:
Jeez. Now I’m concerned. I guess we’ll find out tonight. I hate when Dems talk like that. Such an own goal.
Kay
@Baud:
I think most campaigs start with “meet voters where they are” where they start with the assumption that everyone is a potential supporter. Although this is obviously delusional and pie in the sky I think it’s better, on balance, than evaluating voters for loyalty to the pol. One vote is one vote- doesn’t matter if it comes from a sometime critic or true believer.
topclimber
@Chris Johnson: The bill passed its final cloture vote with room to spare. So, in addition to so many other reasons, why do we care about the senior senatorial shit slurper from SC on this one?
Marmot
@Soprano2: Seriously? What a dumbass.
Subsole
@NeenerNeener:
The most depressing development in my lifetime has been the rampant slide into backassward superstition that is sweeping the electorate.
Because that’s all our current conspiracy-mania is: superstition. The desire to explain things away by pinning them on shadowy, unknowable forces beyond our control or comprehension. It’s the idea that only that which is hidden can possibly be true. And it’s every bit as nonsensical and naive as the idea that nothing in the open could be false.
And in many ways, it’s more corrosive than simple superstition. At least the Sidhe could, occasionally, redound to your benefit. The Conspiracy (TM, I’m sure) is always against you.
Baud
@Kay:
Right. Candidates shouldn’t be weighing in on how voters should behave.
We ordinary people, however, talk about political culture all the time and I don’t see a reason to exempt the Dem universe from that discussion.
Kay
@Soprano2:
HUGE loss for the NYTimes team if he pulls it out though. They went all in on his opponent. So it’s doubly good if he wins- another shitty, wrong read of the electorate from them.
Another Scott
@Baud:
Beware tiny quips without context.
NewsDay.com (weird web page that won’t scroll – apparently they want a subscription):
I like our chances.
Forward!!
Cheers,
Scott.
SW
Counting assholes. Most folks I know would like to believe that we are not an asshole majority country. That more than half of Americans are complete assholes. But we are in the process of making that determination. Oh there are not enough critters with the MAGA ear tags to make up a majority. But what about the assholes who are are apolitical. They just come out once every four years to cast a vote based on nothing much more than “the man”. Well…
Baud
@Another Scott:
I’m rooting for him no matter what.
Kay
@Soprano2:
Dave Weigel at the WaPo said Eric Adams has really hurt Dems in NY. Apparently Adams blames every problem caused by his own incompetence on The Scary Migrants and it has caught on. Just a reprehensible person. They can’t indict that crook fast enough as far as I’m concerned. The “straw donors” – they’re called “conduits” at the federal level- crime is a slam dunk for prosecutors because the straw donors are little guys who always cooperate and there are records. It’s a dumb criminal crime.
Matt McIrvin
@Subsole: I do think that’s not a recent thing–it’s old.
Paranormal/magical/conspiracy thinking was fodder for bestselling books and TV documentaries in the 1970s before the Internet was even a thing. Psychic powers and Bigfoot and Ancient Astronauts and a million versions of the JFK conspiracy, it was all huge then. And in the 1980s, people just switched to a religious-flavored version–you got the Satanic Panic and the push to teach creationism in schools. And in the 90s everyone went gaga for The X-Files and there were all these people who seemed convinced it was real; also people swearing by The Secret and the law of attraction, etc.
Then the 2000s: the international Muslim terrorist axis of evil was gonna get us! Would effete transnational progressivism leave us weak? 2010s: BLM is hiding under the bed and Hillary and Obama are gonna make your kid gay, etc., etc.
Bupalos
Can you elaborate on this? My working understanding is that most of Trump’s popularity (and the general global phenomenon of the authoritarian wreckers) does indeed come from systemic failures. Inequality, bad education, wealth draining out the top of economies, climate change. To me the operative function is that globally we’re manufacturing stressed, dispossessed, ignorant, lonely, anxiety-ridden people at a rate not seen since the industrial revolution. But I’d like to hear the expanded counterargument.
evodevo
@Soprano2: Well, one of the reasons might be the ongoing prosecutions of the Jan6 rioters. I know a lot of the wannabe militia types around here suddenly got quiet when that started being publicized LOL – what’s the old saying? Just because you’re paranoid, doesn’t mean they aren’t out to get you.
Betty Cracker
@Kay: Adams has been an unmitigated disaster right from the start. Jesus, what is it about NYC mayors? It’s a huge city with millions of people!
Kay
@evodevo:
Oh, that’s wild. Enforcing laws is supposed to serve as a warning! Maybe it worked! For once :)
This is all “vibes” but I just don’t get the same level of negative energy from them, and I live and work with and among them. They never had any positive energy- it was always negative- and it no longer feels like a threat to me. The height was just before the 2020 election. I actually thought one guy in a truck (both driving) was going to hurt me. They were riled up beyong anything I had seen before – ever.
That seems to have melted away. So our side doesn’t have much enthusiasm but either do they, so the win goes to the better sloggers. That’s us, I bet.
Kay
@Betty Cracker:
They all blame some new voting scheme on social media but – AHEM – Guiliani!
They seem a tad… reactionary to me. We didn’t see the same lurch Rightward in Los Angeles or Chicago and they have migrants and had a covid crime spike too. Maybe it’s their garbage media.
Chief Oshkosh
@Betty Cracker: Ah, I see (and agree), with regards to election strategies. I thought you were talking about policy in general.
Kay
That to me is amazing. No one ever gets it BACK :)
Chief Oshkosh
@Baud:
The power of collective action is when a bunch of people do what I tell them to do.
Dammit!
Bugboy
Josh Marshall should know very well that being a populist doesn’t mean you are actually, you know, POPULAR. It means that one APPEARS popular. Big difference.
Kay
@Betty Cracker:
Weigel describes him as a “heat seeking missile aimed at Dem chances in NY”
I wonder sometimes if he’s an actual plant – if he actualy works for the other side. They’re kind of doing that with their candidate for the seat in question. She’s running as a “Democrat” but on the GOP ballot line. It would make sense for them to do this. I think parties generally have NOT done this – gotten out of not wanting to run as a Republican by running as a “Democrat” but just on the GOP ballot line, but would I be surprised if Republicans volated that norm too? No, I would not.
Matt McIrvin
@Bupalos: I think a lot of what’s going on now is a psychosexual reaction to feminism–it’s about a whole lot of men thinking there was a time when some woman would have had to settle to marry them and be their sex toy/baby breeder/house servant, and that time is gone, and they’re pissed and want to do what they can to bring it back.
Kristine
@TBone: I looked up squishy and it can refer to a platonic crush.
I also had to look up vatnik. Learned two new definitions today.
Just Some Fuckhead
Just under in 2016, way under in 2020.
Bupalos
@Matt McIrvin: there are plenty of particular angles to the anti-modern backlash. Men find angles, women find angles, hispanics find angles, hippies find angles….The larger question is why is there such a backlash in the first place, cutting across so many peraonal and national identities. And for that, I think you have to look at the larger forces thqt cut across the planet.
rusty
@Kay: I agree with this. We can approach this as “Anyone that isn’t against me is with me.” or “Anyone that isn’t with me is against me.” There is a subtle but important difference I think we should choose the former (and there is a good lesson to do this).
Matt McIrvin
@Bupalos: I think the common element is that most people basically want to be King, in some small or large way, and don’t like anyone else getting more goodies or more freedom. So when they see any kind of progress toward justice for some group that is not them, it alarms them: why not me? Where’s my cookie?
And you can divide people down into infinitesimal groups such that almost everyone feels this way about something.
2liberal
with all the small republican states this seems dangerous. it discounts population but empowers small states which is already a problem.
BellyCat
@RevRick: South of State College, PA — in the heart of Trumplandia — definitely not seeing nearly as much outward Trump signage and support so far. Possibly still too early and everyone is waiting to see what their neighbors will do, so they can obediently jump on board? Anecdata for sure, but muted response from this rural population seems encouraging.
Also, nationally, the fact that the unvaccinated who died during COVID were more likely MAGA than not is another factor to keep in mind when tempted to hand-wring.
My (cautious but optimistic) prediction is that this Roevember will bring good news for Democrats and democracy. Until then, horse racing narratives will continue apace to feed the MSM’s coffers.
Soprano2
@Betty Cracker: It’s kabuki theater, writ large.
Soprano2
@Kay: I thought more it was removed from reality. Our side has been winning a lot since 2020! Where’s he getting this idea that Democrats are constantly losing? I didn’t hear the interview, but I’m sure the interviewer won’t ask him that, because reporters also assume Democrats lose a lot even when they don’t.
Skippy-san
I do too, and to me it’s emblematic of the selfishness and stupidity of a certain section of the American population. These people have no understanding of how their own government works or what good policy is or is not. They just live by the abiding principle of IGMFY.
Trump is truly evil and a traitor of the worst kind. Even worse from my perspective are the people behind the curtain pulling his strings, the Leonard Leo’s, Stephen Miller’s, Kash Patel’s and others who are truly disgusting and evil. They mean to destroy this country after they are through stealing.
30 years’ service to this country in uniform. What was it for? Not for this. NO, not for this.
kindness
I have DirecTv and yesterday was the first time we got to see Jon Stewart’s new gig as a Daily Show host (Mondays through the election). I was really happy to see him. The Daily Show has been off since mid December. I was not happy that Jon spent most of his time bagging on Joe Biden’s age and mental fitness. WTF Jon! If this is what you are going to give us with poignant comedy, fuck off. I feel like I was shanked in the back.
Seanly
@Shalimar:
I am a civil engineer and have always worked with so many people that have abhorrent opinions and terrible politics. I’m very fond that those people are limited in their power to one vote.
Trump gave voice to the quiet part of their dark thoughts but the flipside is that I think more of his voters died in the pandemic. I also can’t think of there being many new voters who’d flock to Trump.
Matt McIrvin
@kindness: Jon Stewart was in his element 20 years ago but he is the wrong satirist for our time. That’s been clear for a while. There are things he doesn’t get.
Kay
@Soprano2:
Democrats did lose in NY last cycle so that’s where he’s getting it. The mistake, I think, is assuming NY is somehow representative of either “the country” or “Democrats”.
I can’t think of another city that has a fake Democratic mayor, for example, or a district who happily voted for a person (Santos) who is an utter and complete fraud on every level and about whom they knew nothing about. That’s a little… unusual, this penchant for hiring people who invent a fraudulent resume. They hire criminals, basically.
Someone said yesterday that that district is the 4th wealthiest in the country and in the US wealth always matches “college educated”. God help us if that’s true.
Shalimar
@kindness: People forget now that The Daily Show under Stewart always used to search for things they could make fun of Democrats for too. We brushed it all off then. He quit in early 2015, before the Clinton emails 24/7 obsession got Trump elected. Everyone is hyper-sensitive to the “both sides” bullshit now. I am not optimistic that his return will be as successful as he was in the past.
kindness
@Matt McIrvin: It was nice to see Jordan Klepper suggest to Jon that his Bothsidesing wasn’t a good fit to this era.
Jeffg166
@RevRick: I live In Philadelphia. In 2020 90% of the registered Republicans in Philly voted. Only 66% of the registered Democrats did.
PA should be very blue. If the 250,000 Democrats in Philly who didn’t show up in 2020 showed up it would be.
PA has mail in ballots. There is no excuse for not voting.
JPopeC
@Frank Wilhoit: Shorter: We are Devo.
SW
Trump is a gifted con man who has fashioned his con to appeal to a specific segment of the population. In this case, assholes. That was the stroke of genius that sets him apart, recognizing the immense population of assholes in the human race and explicitly targeting them as an underserved constituency. And what do I mean by assholes? It’s not politics it is character. It is about cruelty and indifference to suffering. Assholes revel in cruelty. Throw in fear and paranoia and you are getting close to the Trump formula. A sea of marks out there.
Kirk
I’ve reached the point that when I hear about Biden being too old, I ask what their objection is to Kamala being president. I know eventually there will be a coherent response but being confronted with the racism / misogyny tends for now to evolve silence or stumbling responses.
Another Scott
@kindness: I was at the “Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear” in DC. Huge crowd.
He tried to both-side things a little there and got boo-ed for it.
He’s been this way for a very long time, but many fans didn’t want to see it.
(Colbert was great.)
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Paul in KY
@TBone: Maybe she wanted the get with you in a ‘squishy’ way?
Paul in KY
@MagdaInBlack: I thought Posh Spice was the devil worshiping one…
Paul in KY
@ant: Is Ice Spice black?
Paul in KY
@Matt McIrvin: Joe Biden is going to whup his mangy ass again.