I was gone for a week to see the eclipse — I’ll have a couple posts on some political/social aspects of some of my travel experiences in a few days. As part of my trip to see totality in Texas, I traveled through CO-4, the eastern Colorado district that Lauren Boebert parachuted into after realizing that she would lose CO-3. As you might recall, Ken Buck tried to screw Boebert over by quitting in a way that forced a special election. Unfortunately, the state GOP has sided with Boebert in two ways.
First, they demanded that their nominee for the special election sign a pledge not to run for the seat in the primary. Greg Lopez, the Republican nominee for the special, signed that pledge.
Second, they endorsed Boebert at their convention in Pueblo and shat upon the other candidates who had the temerity to challenge the God-emperor Trump’s decision to anoint St Lauren as the rightful heir to the House of Buck.
On the ground in CO-4, I didn’t see a single Boebert sign. I did see signs for Richard Holtorf, the guy who would have probably replaced Ken Buck if Boebert hadn’t decided to leave CO-3. Holtorf is pissed because he was screwed over, but he’ll probably make the primary ballot because he’s gathered enough signatures to do so despite the state GOP’s wishes.
It’s hard to feel sorry for a guy like Holtorf, who wears a AR-15 tie pin and would probably have exactly the same voting record as Boebert if he were elected. Still, I would have liked to see Boebert flushed from our politics. I don’t know enough about CO-4 politics to know if the voters there might still reject Boebert, but I do know that there are a shitload of Trump signs and flags along the highway, and his supporters know that he’s behind Boebert. It’s a R+13 district, so probably not worth putting serious money behind a Democratic challenger.
As someone whose main interest in politics is the House of Representatives, it’s tough to see this, but here we are. I invite those who know more about Colorado politics to correct me if I’m wrong.
jackmac
Too bad Boebert may stick around.
The saving grace is that if the Dems reclaim the majority, Speaker Hakeem Jeffries could relegate her to some obscure subcommittee assignment and we can forget about her.
Poe Larity
I miss normal wackos like Caribou Barbie who were at least entertaining.
Geminid
@jackmac: I think the minority party does its own placement of members on committees, in which case Speaker Jeffries would not have a say on Boebert’s assignment- if she can win her primary.
I still expect 4th CD Republicans to reject Boebert on primary day. Her best hope is to win a plurality in a split field but if one of her rivals can get separation from the others, it will be “former Rep. Boebert” this time next year.
artem1s
Probably not, but seems like it would be a good target for the Lincoln Project to spend their time and money on. Anything that makes the GOP spend money on an otherwise “safe” districts is money they aren’t spending on a flippable district, so not a complete waste.
cain
@artem1s:
We should probably put some kind of challenger to at least mock the district.
$8 blue check mistermix
@artem1s: $100-250K into a tough D vs R congressional campaign at the right time can be a game changer. Unfortunately, in CO-4 the primary is around June 25 and from what I’ve read the Democrats are in disarray, so the juice probably isn’t worth the squeeze here.
Ohio Mom
I am impressed that Bobert is capable of saving her Congressional career. I didn’t think she was that smart. Or maybe cunning is a better descriptor, I think those are two separate things, cunning and smart.
Now of course I still think she’s despicable. But when she hightailed it out of her original district, I thought it was over for her. I didn’t see what she saw about moving a little bit east to Co-4.
It’s a disappointment to think we may not be rid of her.
Geminid
@Geminid: This will be a good test of Trump’s political clout.
Betty
@Geminid: Do you know if Buck is endorsing anyone?
Mr. Prosser
The Colorado GOP is as whacked out as an outhouse rat and has lost practically any influence for national elections. There are hardheaded farmers and ranchers out there on the high plains who align more with Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma politically and may love Boebert but they also need expertise in water and oil and gas on their side. They may very well go with a homegrown local like Sonnenberg than a carpet bag gunslinger.
RevRick
Charles Gaba over at the Great Orange Satan promotes Democratic candidates in winnable House seats. Either back them or donate to the DCCC.
It drives me nuts how Democrats fall for giving to the opponents of those GOPers we love to hate. It’s a waste of resources better spent elsewhere.
Do the smart bets always pay off? Obviously not. But throwing money at candidates in districts which are overwhelmingly Republican is a foolish strategy.
eponymous
I want that despicable little twit flushed (and isn’t that the perfect verb), although chances of a rational candidate there are nil. She needs one more term in order to get pension benefits (if I understand correctly), and I would love to see her not get them
Agree with RevRick that funding a Democrat there is throwing money away.
Kirk
I’m not sure she’ll win the primary. She’s got two big negatives:
She’s an outsider.
She’s a woman.
I lived in that district (yay, Limon and Hugo) for a few years about 30 years ago, and from what I’ve seen some things haven’t changed. The residents have been there for decades, often generations, and resent everyone – those who refer to the region as fly-over country, the places their children flee to, the fact they’re getting old and people other than their neighbors don’t seem to care, and so forth. At the same time they make it difficult for new families that move into their towns.
And Boebert is flashy (to their eyes) and a carpetbagger just jumping right in. Yes, Trump endorsed her so she’ll get some attention, but in the end I don’t think she’ll get the nod.
Remember, based on experience that’s 30+ years old so use your salt lick.
japa21
@RevRick: Tend to agree. However, the definition of overwhelmingly Republican might be different this year than in the past. R+13 is prohibitive, but anything R+5 or less is in play. And I wouldn’t be surprised if few even above that aren’t in play as well.
West of the Rockies
@Ohio Mom:
Is it that Boebert is that smart and cunning, or just the right knucklehead for the right time in this district of bigoted, under-educated mouth breathers? They are intent on owning the libs (even if they will ultimately get nothing out of it–because Boebert won’t deliver anything good to that district).
PsiFighter37
I do not mind if clowns like her remain on the GOP side. All they will do is continue to force their more ‘moderate’ colleagues to take untenable stances and turn off reasonable voters by acting like the braying jackasses they are. When she is in the minority come January, I would not be surprised if whomever replaces Mike Johnson places her in Siberia when it comes to committee assignments.
Jay
@RevRick:
you win none of the fights you don’t enter.
Spending even a minimal amount of money in a district you will lose, forces the other campaign to have to spend more money, which is less money at the State and Federal level for the Party to spend in other districts.
WaterGirl
As far as I have seen, plenty of candidates that Trump endorses LOSE. Boebert is a carpetbagger in that distract, and I will be surprised if she wins.
WaterGirl
@Betty: I don’t believe that Buck would let her get elected without a fight.
WaterGirl
@Jay: Yeah, but local folks can come up with that kind of money, no need for nationalizing a race that is unwindable by Dems.
A Ghost to Most
After her Beetlejuice performance, the churchy flatlanders are all kinds of pissed at her. I’m not so sure.
TaMara
She’s not going to win the primary. She’s hated in the 4th district. As a matter of fact, she’s pretty much hated in all CO. The the CO GOP is a train wreck, led by a man who rivals the dumpster fire for his ability to cheat and steal.
They are broke, they can’t agree on anything. Might I even say, they are in disarray?
But what do I know, I just used to be in the 4th district until CO came to their senses and moved my street into CO District 2 with Neguse.
ETA to correct stupid autocorrect
counterfactual
um… 538 has polls with Biden winning by 10% and McCorkle, one of the Dem candidate has released polls with him leading over Boebart by 7%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/colorado/
karen marie
@Kirk: How well do you think voters like her children and want them in their district?
jackmac
@Geminid: Sadly, you are correct about committee assignments. No matter where she lands, a Boebert in the minority can be safely ignored.
Roberto el oso
She’s a jerk and a waste of space but I don’t get the impression she is anything other than a cipher in her actual job. She follows Gaetz or someone else’s lead but that’s about it.
Starfish
@TaMara: TaMara’s right on this.
Everyone hates Boebert and is tired of her nonsense. She is like a Sinema with guns and dare I say more family drama than the Palins.
Jay
@WaterGirl:
Can they? Is there a District Democratic Party Org? Is it semi capable? Do they have sufficient finances and expertise?
Jackie
@Jay: @WaterGirl:
Agree with you both. I don’t see the C4 district welcoming an unserious carpetbagger with Beetlejuice baggage – much less voting for her to win the primary.
And Dems need to rally around a good quality candidate!
We’ve seen miracle flips in deep red areas in multiple special elections this year; why not in Colorado?
Should Boebert win the primary, I just don’t see enthusiasm by republicans to GOTV for her. She’s an EMBARRASSMENT to most Coloradians.
Belafon
@RevRick: Every race where the Democrat lost by 8 or less in 2022 should be looked at. Every race with a worse outcome is a sorry on large donations, but it would still be good to GOTV because of the statewide races in various states.
Jackie
TIFG is now hawking personalized MAGA doormats for $100. So his supporters can now literally be stepped on, scraped on, and be proudly trod on!
Gin & Tonic
@PsiFighter37: Hey, long time no see. Hope you’re well.
Baud
@Jackie:
Could Trump toilet paper be far behind?
Gin & Tonic
@Baud: I’d buy some. Hell, Putin toilet paper is semi-popular in Ukraine.
Princess
@Gin & Tonic: Um, we got some in 2016 for Christmas. I guess Trump himself wasn’t selling it though.
mrmoshpotato
@Poe Larity:
You must really hate Blowbert to praise the Wasilla Wingnut.
TBone
@Princess: there’s a (waterproof?) toilet bowl sticker you can put inside as a target. And a Rump head toilet scrubbing brush also. And a cat scratching tower that’s like a little statue. I want that one for the kitties.
TBone
Our Jawn lives in infamy for his treatment of Boobert
https://www.businessinsider.com/lauren-boebert-inspires-grabbing-the-hog-history-senate-fetterman2023-9?op=1
I love this at the end of the article:
Jackie
@Baud: I could see that! Unfortunately, Dems would be the buyers – to gift to their MAGA relatives and friends.
mrmoshpotato
@Starfish:
Haha!
Geminid
@jackmac: I like it this way. Think of all the good Democrats our House Steering Committee put on high-profile committees. They’ve run rings around the majority members.
Of course, the Democratic Steering Committee had good material to work with. Not so their colleagues across the aisle; they had slim pickings, and next year it will only get worse.
Kirk
@karen marie: Honestly doubt most of them will know or care about her children.
She’s a female carpetbagger in a region that leans misogynistic and is very insular. She’ll get some votes. She is unlikely to win.
TBone
@TaMara: 💙
lowtechcyclist
@Jay:
I’m all for spending a minimal amount of money even in hopeless districts, just to have someone there preaching the Dem gospel, so to speak. But I think what RevRick is talking about is the sort of serious money that people throw at the opponents of a Mitch McConnell or MTG, races that we had no chances of winning but sucked up millions of dollars in small donations because people hated them.
Based on what intermittent attention I’ve paid going back to 2006, I’d say R+7 is probably as Republican a district as it makes sense to throw big bucks at. I’ve seen a fair number of Dems win even at that level in a good year, but past that, things thin out quickly.
ColoradoGuy
She threatened the theater management after they banned her, and her boyfriend. The management responded by compiling a video from their numerous security cameras showing a drunken, and possibly stoned, Boebert being escorted from her seat all the way to the street. Then they released additional video showing the crude groping of her boyfriend … in the middle of a family-friendly live performance.
The Colorado TV stations went nuts and showed the footage over and over again. I doubt there is anyone in Colorado who hasn’t seen it. CO-4 is mostly ranchers, with a large Boulder-adjacent suburb in the southwest corner (where I live). Clownish antics that go over as “colorful” in the mountain towns don’t play well here in the flatlands. Anywhere east of I-25 is called “Kansas”, and that’s most of CO-4.
Geminid
@lowtechcyclist: Another way of looking at this question: a Democrat who carried Colorado’s 4th CD would be around the 250th member of a Democratic majority.
RaflW
Wow. What a sh*tpile. Boebert will do nothing for her future constituents. She doesn’t give a rip about anyone but her. She’d make (gaaak) Sarah Palin look capable, and that’s a freakin’ low bar.
Oh, well. The GOP is just a rolling nightmare, but I guess the northeastern plains voters will just have to take it good and hard.
RaflW
@RevRick: On this one, I sadly have to agree. CO has Yadira Caraveo in CO-08 is seen by Cook at least as ‘tossup’. She is a first-termer and the district is pretty much dead even in terms of Partisan Voting Index.
trollhattan
Boy howdy I can’t wait for Boebert spawn to get their own reality teevee shows, so we can get to know Duffle and Reload and Bumpstock.
Melancholy Jaques
@PsiFighter37:
I agree with this. Republicans are stupid, evil, and crazy. Let their most known members show it. Rather her than some average looking white guy in a fleece or a barn coat who gets the political media to swoon at his banality and supposed centrism.
Jackie
Way off topic, but this shows the GQP are truly desperate about the General Election:
sdhays
@Melancholy Jaques: I love the idea of her being denied a Congressional pension, but yeah, it’s not horrible having her be a well-known face of the party. Her Republican opponent is every bit the piece of shit she is, I’m sure.
Craig
@Baud: my friend bought me a roll as a joke in 2016. Just his face on each square. The joke turned to ash in my mouth on Election night.
mrmoshpotato
@trollhattan:
You say that in jest but…
Dastronomer
I spent some time at summer nerd camp with Calvarese 20 years ago. If I still lived in Colorado and had the misfortune to be in CD-4 I’d campaign hard for her.
Note that the polling done so far in CD-4 uses a sample size of ~450 people per poll. That’s not nearly enough to have decent error bars, so it could be an upset. Folks in Colorado can’t stand Boebert, and even Ken Buck wasn’t popular. The GOP state committee is broke and run by MAGAts. The district has a slim but non zero chance of being flipped, especially given the nuthouse state of the GOP candidates.
Melancholy Jaques
@Geminid:
Although a large majority sounds nice, the 250th member would most likely be one of those Democrats who would make Manchin and Sinema look like loyal Democrats.
Melancholy Jaques
@RaflW:
She will say mean things about the people they don’t like. That’s all Republican voters really want. Public cruelty.
John Revolta
Alls I can say is, Boobyhatch getting 40% of the vote at the district assembly means that 60% of the delegates voted against her. The smart move now would be for the all other primary candidates to drop out except one. I know Repubs don’t do smart but they do know about ratfucking so maybe………
opiejeanne
@TBone: Our kids gave us the toilet brush for Christmas a couple of years ago, and last year one of them got us a roll of toilet paper with Trump’s face on it. After careful consideration, we decided we didn’t want his mug anywhere near our precious naughty bits, so we composted it.
Geminid
@Melancholy Jaques: The 250th Democratic Representative would more likely be another Jared Golden or Mary Peltola. Moderate, but loyal to party leadership.