.It’s Day 11 of the actual trial! Day 15 if you include jury selection.
It looks like Michael Cohen will be testifying on Monday!
Best sources of live blogging that I have found. It looks like some of them are only live blogging for the “big” witnesses. We’ll see.
Josh Kovensky (TPM) live blogging (not up today)
Mark Sumner (Daily Kos) live blogging (not up yet today)
Tyler McBrien (Lawfare) on twitter (not live blogging today)
Anna Bower (Lawfare) on twitter (inside the courtroom)
Good morning from 100 Centre Street, where Donald Trump’s criminal trial is set to resume.
Stormy Daniels wrapped up her testimony yesterday, but it’s a cloudy—some might even say stormy—day in Manhattan.
Follow along as I live tweet for @lawfare 👇 ⬇️: pic.twitter.com/S5AG5Kqgv5
— Anna Bower (@AnnaBower) May 10, 2024
Adam Klasfeld on twitter (not up yet today)
NBC live blogging and BBC live blogging have also been recommended by BJ peeps.
Still loving this awesome image. When you get tired of it, let me know.
Open thread.
hueyplong
Maybe the pic could be photoshopped to make it appear that the pitch is being made to a cluster of oil company CEOs.
But if it can’t, stick with this one until, say, November.
TBone
@hueyplong: 👍
TBone
Mags Habs
Bet that’s going over like a fart in a court room.
Sid
MeidasTouch provides some interesting same day commentary (before and after court) with former prosecutor Karen Friedman Agnifilo: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL36GQAccexby551S5sGjakmhX0UEyRaIA
smith
@Sid: I have especially appreciated the end of day wrapups. Agnifilo often provides interpretations I would have missed.
Butch
Kos does have a kind of liveblog, but it’s Associated Press, not Mark Sumner.
Anonymous at Work
Bets on print outs?
Ten bucks on Xhits supporting a third mistrial motion.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Anonymous at Work: My guess: Stories Trump will like. Possibly printed out by that assistant who follows him around with a portable printer to give him ego-stroking posts. His lawyers hope they will keep him amused and awake.
Scout211
Most of what I have posted here in the trial threads comes from the NBC live updates. I think I was the one who recommended NBC.
The NBC updates are often slow in coming but are full of direct quotes and descriptions of the testimony in paragraph form which is more my speed. Plus, they throw in some analysis from their legal experts. But YMMV.
I will be gone most of the morning but I will catch up on this thread when I get back home. Have fun out there. 😉
TBone
Apparently Westerhout wasn’t as “worried” about Rump’s family as he was 😆 when she trashed the females in public.
Anonymous at Work
@Dorothy A. Winsor: was more another packet to give judge, again. He thinks that Merchan *must* take and read such things.
WaterGirl
@Butch: Not sure why this went into moderation – are you on a new device today?
WaterGirl
@Anonymous at Work:
I know that’s English, but for the life of me I cannot figure out what Xhits is.
Scout211
Why would they request this?
Butch
@WaterGirl: I changed my e-mail; we got a notice that MagicMail is shutting down in a month and the computer tech advised me to make the change to Gmail as soon as possible. Prob’ly that’s why?
NotMax
@Dorothy A. Winsor
Remember when some eateries used to have special placemats for kids? Printed with puzzles, mazes and the like?
Equivalent concept.
Scout211
For LAO: Trump’s emotional support person today?
TBone
@NotMax: someone here dubbed that assistant with the mobile printer his “emotional support printer.” She looks like Ivanka (shocker 🙄). At the beginning of the trial, she was asked to move out of front row seating.
WaterGirl
@Butch: That’s definitely why! Now that I approved your first comment with the new email, your comments will show up right away again for everyone.
I had looked at your email, and the first part looked familiar and I didn’t find a missing letter on .com (for instance) so it appeared your email was good. :-)
Scout211
NBC says that Cohen is testifying on Monday.
WaterGirl
@NotMax: Draw the line through the maze, from the trial at the beginning, to jail at the end!
smith
@Scout211: This was when the Stormy deal went down. Maybe they wanted to argue that he was too busy campaigning to be personally involved in it.
WaterGirl
@Scout211: So does the post up top, in big letters and in bold.
Finally, I scooped Scout211! :-)
hueyplong
I’ve never shortened it that way, but I’d guess “exhibits.”
Anoniminous
@WaterGirl:
X in Ancient Greek is pronounced “chee” so Xits is “chee-its.”
Trivia Man
@Scout211: I have been following NBC because sneaking peeks at work its a good, steady, short update if highlights easy to perk and run.
And a few links in case i want the back story article.
Bonus: if the company decides to search my browser history NBC News is a very normie thing to look at. I also go to fox for their major points.
Scout211
Trivia Man
@Anoniminous: “X” is unclear and easily confused with other stuff (like the Roman ‘ten’ for example!) so nee “twitter” becomes Xitter. And a post isnt a tweet, its a “Xhit” pronounced just the way we think it should be.
Scout211
@WaterGirl: LOL. It’s not a competition. Or is it?
😉
TBone
Bret Stephens just stepped up to compete for my flaming clown awards ceremony.
Anonymous at Work
SiubhanDuinne
@TBone:
Nominated! (With one tiny edit.)
BlueGuitarist
@WaterGirl:
tweets, on twitter, now X excretes
eta see Trivia Man above at 28, anonymous a w at 31
Jeffro
I know, right? (barf)
So gross, so completely disqualifying
TBone
@SiubhanDuinne: one for the ages (it went over like a lead balloon was how I came up with it, like Led Zeppelin).
WaterGirl
@hueyplong: That makes sense.
TBone
@Jeffro: I have a new meme in my stash with photos of Stormy and Ivanka side by side. Creepy AF.
TS
@Scout211:
From ABC blog – I think trump’s lawyers were trying to provide reasons why trumps cheques to be signed went to aide’s homes – he was travelling so he wanted to get them quickly & the staff would know where he was?
They are trying everything in the hope that something works.
WaterGirl
@Anoniminous:
And I have no idea what that’s supposed to me, either.
WereBear
It’s getting into Voltaire levels lately.
50,103 words as of dawn this morning, and it’s a novel! With room to spare. Taking the rest of the day off to let my brain cool down.🤣
TBone
@WaterGirl: sheeeeit is hillbilly speak where I live. Long form of ‘shit.’
prostratedragon
Klasfeld is now up.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@WereBear: Good for you! That’s amazing. Go let your brain rot.
oldgold
Amusing that many of the live bloggers noted that Stormy’s testimony was not central to the case and decried the salacious nature of her testimony, but live blogged her time on the stand and then vanished.
Almost Retired
@WaterGirl: exhibits. I speak fluent indecipherable abbreviations and acronyms.
WereBear
@Almost Retired: You have a military background?
TBone
Comment of the Day (so far):
https://digbysblog.net/2024/05/10/no-one-can-call-trump-gutless/
Almost Retired
@WereBear: Legal. So I can also do pretentious Latin phrases as an additional party trick.
SiubhanDuinne
@WereBear:
YAY!! Congrats, you did it!
Treat yourself to something that will make you (even) happy(er).
TBone
I hope Alvin Bragg knows to spread some Vicks Vap O Rub under his nostrils.
TS
This is the substitute daily Kos blog – has lots of items in the comments –
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/5/10/2239944/-Stand-In-Liveblog-NYC-Fraud-Trial?
Apparently Jonathon Turley has noted that the quote from trump attributed to him actually came from someone else – he didn’t however, disagree with it.
So with all those flattering “printouts” trump doesn’t seem able to read them very well.
prostratedragon
Katie Phang is now up. Why, I wonder, did the defense want to subpoena Mark Pomerantz? The judge quashed it.
PaulWartenberg
Michael Cohen on the stand Monday: “Why yes, I *do* have an external hard drive labeled YIKES.”
Soprano2
@TBone: I think TFG doesn’t understand that the things that make the MAGA’s excited are going to offend or even piss off the jury and the judge.
PaulWartenberg
@prostratedragon:
I think trump (or his lawyers) believed they could have used him to sow doubt about how the prosecution formed its case.
TBone
Stormy is twisting the knife today, mentioning that “real men” testify 😆🤣 gawd I love her, she knows real men wear diapers.
TBone
@Soprano2: oh he understands, he just doesn’t care. About anything but himself. He’s gonna Find Out.
smith
@TS: Meidas Touch has had a whole series of posts about the Defendant’s habit of reposting articles he has found, but edited to favor him. Here’s an example: https://meidasnews.com/news/trump-deleted-polls-numbers-showing-him-tied-with-joe-biden
frosty
@WereBear: 50,103 words! Amazing! Congratulations!! Now for the editing, which I always found to be the easy part (just professional reports and papers for me though.)
Another Scott
A quick light diversion:
D’Oh!
Cheers,
Scott.
prostratedragon
@PaulWartenberg: Yeah, I guess. Suggests a certain poverty of arguments, though.
prostratedragon
@Another Scott: 😆😆😆
TS
@smith:
It is so hard to understand why anyone believes him. Lies about polls, lies about golf, lies about everything he did/did not do at President. I’m just reading about Manafort back in the fold – normal, regular folks don’t exist in trump’s world – only sycophants are welcome.
https://wapo.st/4dt0KYB (gift link)
bk
Thank god for the important CNN coverage:
Trump has left the courtroom
Donald Trump has left the courtroom. He gave Fox News host Jeanine Pirro a pat on the shoulder as he walked out into the hallway.
Sure Lurkalot
The printouts remind me of a boss who got stuck in time when email became ubiquitous in the workplace. Typing was “women’s work” so he would write out his (often vitriolic) missives on a yellow legal pad and hand it off to his admin to type and send AND have her print out the responses because he apparently couldn’t even read off the computer screen. He did this all day long.
On the good side, I have him to thank for being fairly and well compensated for the 1st time in my career, in my mid 40’s.
TS
And from the ABC
Judge Merchan just said they’ll work until 1 p.m. or a bit after today so that they don’t need to return to the trial after lunch.
Jackie
Steve Bannon is a step closer to prison after a three-judge panel of the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals rejected Bannon’s argument, saying the former aide and prominent podcaster had no legal rationale for his blanket refusal to appeal before the Jan. 6 committee.
Of course he’ll appeal, but his day isn’t going so good 🤭
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/10/appeals-court-upholds-steve-bannons-conviction-for-defying-jan-6-probe-00157301
Ruckus
@Scout211:
Why would they request this?
ShitForBrains?
This is a guy who thinks his shit doesn’t stink, which is why he fills his diaper with it regularly. This is a guy who thinks the world revolves around the theoretical stick up his butt. (He couldn’t continually crap his pants with a stick blocking the output port – unless he’s just so full of shit that there is no stopping it…. Oh wait! Maybe/likely it just oouzes out of every pore and opening – that would explain a lot.
RandomMonster
@Almost Retired:
You mean IAA?
Origuy
If you are on Threads, follow rfk.jr.brain.worm, in the Twitter tradition of spoof accounts.
They’ve created a Spotify playlist: songs to writhe and undulate to. With hits like “Always On My Mind” and “I Can’t Get You Out of My Head”.
Ruckus
@TBone:
I always thought that sheeeit was because they didn’t know how to spell or speak. (and possibly because they may have possibly shit the bed on occasion….)
Ruckus
@TBone:
I don’t believe that browning is coming from the sun…..
Ruckus
@TS:
So with all those flattering “printouts” trump doesn’t seem able to read them very well.
That’s OK he doesn’t do anything very well.
Except of course screw up – he seems excellent at that.
cmorenc
@smith:
Probably so, but wouldn’t that allegation contradict Trump staffers’ own testimony about how good Trump is at “multitasking”? Especially during plane rides to and from campaign events.
Sure Lurkalot
@Anoniminous: Actually, X (chi) in Greek is an aspirated K sound. My departed dad will be happy I have used the Classics degrees he funded. (But sincerely, they have served me well).
MomSense
I think I’ve lost the ability to gauge what resonates with people. It seems like Stormy is doing well and that the defense hasn’t successfully made any holes in this whole payment and cover up being about the election. Again it seems like that to me but the last 10 years of stupidity about trump have me questioning everything.
Sure Lurkalot
@Soprano2:
He has believed his entire life that his shit doesn’t stink and now the whole world knows it most certainly does.
Baud
@MomSense: Yeah, I don’t even try to guess anymore. I realize I’m too different from most people.
japa21
@Baud: Which is why we all appreciate you so much.
Baud
@japa21:
You sure that’s not the brain worm talking?
Seriously, thanks.
Baud
Bannon conviction affirmed
Decision
Geminid
@WaterGirl: I’m with Ragnarok Lobster on this one:
Steve in the ATL
@MomSense:
Ain’t that the truth
@Almost Retired:
Res ipsa loquitur!
Res judicata!
Cave canem!*
*free legal advice regarding dog bite law: first bite is free! After that, the dog is a known risk and greater liability applies.
Melancholy Jaques
@TBone:
Senator Clay Davis’s trademark
Melancholy Jaques
@oldgold:
Kind of like when Ken Starr and the Republicans claimed their impeachment of Bill Clinton was not about his daliance, then included every detail in the report.
TBone
@Melancholy Jaques: 😆 perfect
TBone
MSNBC is unwatchable for trial today, they’re already out to lunch for Friday. That’s the lunch “hour” where you just go the hell home for the weekend.
jonas
We’ve known for a long time Trump is functionally illiterate — he can’t really read anything beyond the shorter words in the Fox News chyron crawl. I’m guessing one reason his own lawyers never put him on the stand — aside from the fact that he’ll perjure himself in 3 seconds — is that if he’s ever asked to read something or identify something in a text that’s printed out for him, it will be obvious he can’t do it. Even if his illiteracy could be a useful defense in some instances.
Soprano2
@jonas: I’ve read that he needs reading glasses but is too vain to wear them. I can totally believe that.
hueyplong
@Soprano2: Glasses would smudge his face paint.
TBone
Ron Filipkowski xit
RevRick
@WaterGirl: Kicked in $250 to VAAC, just in case there’s a match thing going on.
Villago Delenda Est
@Baud: LOCK HIM UP!
rikyrah
@WereBear:
CLAP CLAP CLAP
JaySinWA
@Villago Delenda Est: Can we just declare that Bannon is unappealing?
Juju
@Dorothy A. Winsor: The interesting thing about that story to me is, Trump and his family did a similar thing for his father Fred Trump when he was going through Alzheimer’s. Fred would come to the office and the family would give him meaningless paperwork to keep him busy and entertained. I wish I could remember where I read that, I think it might have been People magazine. I do the same thing with meaningless mail for my mother now that she has dementia and can’t handle dealing with serious mail.
TheOtherHank
As far as Xit, Xitter, etc go, I believe that comes from how Chinese is rendered in our alphabet. Q, for example, is pronounced like ch and X is pronounced like sh. So this gives us Shit and Shitter. Which seems appropriate for the way the place is currently run.
oldgold
The prosecution has built about as much corroborative scaffolding as they can around the upcoming Cohen testimony. Hopefully, it is enough to keep him upright.
Still, I am nervous about Cohen’s testimony. In cross, the defense will have a lot to work with and my guess is Cohen will not be as composed a witness as Stormy was. The saving grace may be Trump’s attorneys; who to date, have performed at a level much less than above reproach.
hueyplong
@oldgold: I’m more optimistic.
I can see him saying, “Yeah, I crimed, and crimed a lot. Each time, did it on Trump’s instructions, for his benefit. And got paid by him to do it.”
“I was lying under oath before, on his instructions, to cover up his crimes. Doing that was criminal, and I did my time for that. Now I’m no longer under instructions to lie under oath so now I’m telling the truth.”
Seems kind of straightforward.
narya
I would like to see the prosecution use Cohen very, very narrowly, which, IIUC, would limit what could be asked under cross (BJ attorneys? am I right?). Short questions, short answers, little or no elaboration. I think it could be very effective AND get under the orange one’s skin. I doubt that’s what will happen, though.
hueyplong
@narya: An exception to the limitation you’re stating is stuff that goes to credibility. Pretty big crack in that door. That’s probably part of what worries oldgold.
WaterGirl
@RandomMonster: ha!
The Pale Scot
@WaterGirl:
Ex. The Wire: Shit Clay Davis Says
prostratedragon
@narya: He survived the fraud trial fairly well.
WereBear
Thank you all!
smith
The prosecution says it will probably call only 2 more witnesses, and likely be done by the end of next week. It will be interesting to see who the defense will call. This trial is going faster than I had anticipated.
smith
Now the defense is asking for a gag order on Cohen, as he’s been mercilessly trolling the Defendant on line. Can a judge gag a witness? Isn’t there a real First Amendment problem with that?
MomSense
@Steve in the ATL:
Those all sound like Harry Potter spells/curses.
divF
@Steve in the ATL:
O. Felix Culpa
@WereBear: Congratulations! That’s quite an effort and accomplishment.
Ramalama
@Origuy: ear worms to appeal to the brain worm. Nice.
TBone
@smith: I don’t see how the judge can gag a private citizen who is not under his jurisdiction and who has already been adjudicated and done his time in the penal system from conspiring with the defendant who is currently in front of him. Ha ha I said penal.
Matt McIrvin
@Soprano2:
This could actually be rational, since Trump’s best chance for evading most of his legal troubles isn’t to win in court but to be elected President (even if it’s literally from a prison cell). So he really needs a political strategy instead of a legal one.
Ruckus
@TS:
Normal human beings want nothing to do with SFB. And why would they?
Marcopolo
OT on a lighter note, the SSA just released their list of most popular baby names for last year—both of the under 5 year olds I know (only grandkids of folks I know) are represented of course: Oliver & Lucas. The list of fastest rising names is, to me, an old, just really weird. Here’s the blog post link for the announcement:
https://blog.ssa.gov/olivia-and-liam-reign-supreme-2023-most-popular-baby-names/
Sister Golden Bear
@TBone: For toxic narcissists, other people are merely non-player characters who never have agency.
Finding out that neither is true is inevitably a shock.
Matt McIrvin
@Marcopolo: This old site shows graphically how names have risen and dropped in popularity over the past 140 years or so:
https://engaging-data.com/baby-name-visualizer/
The most consistent pattern I remember noticing just has to do with initial sounds: names beginning with vowels were really popular in the late 19th century, reached a low ebb at the middle 20th century, and are now popular again (though some may already be past peak). Names beginning with the hardest consonants like K, P and T are the reverse: they had their peak in the middle 20th century and declined after that. Softer consonants are in between, no easy-to-generalize pattern there.
Caveatimperator
@Marcopolo:
“Fastest-growing” is a statistic that often pretends to represent more than it really does. It can be really deceptive.
Here, it can represent baby names that aren’t really all that popular as a whole, but have grown in popularity because the starting point was low.
smith
At last, it looks like Steve Bannon will be headed to jail (and doesn’t he have yet another trial coming up over his bogus wall fraud?), and Peter Navarro is desperately trying to get out of jail. It seems he’s found the accommodations to be unsatisfactory.
Sister Golden Bear
@Geminid: We of the Radical Trans Agenda have decreed that Twitter is an exception to our disapproval of deadnaming.
Geminid
@Matt McIrvin: The Wall Street Journal had an article about a Society of Lindas. They have annual conventions where women named Linda meet and celebrate Lindahood.
Some of them remember going to school in the 1950s and 60s and being one of several Lindas in their classes, but now they’re having a hard time finding young Lindas to replenish their Society’s ranks.
hueyplong
@smith: This is a very nice spin on the old canard about a conservative being a liberal who has been mugged.
Can’t wait for Navarro to champion prison reform, though it looks like the sell by date on any such phase of his career is the first week of July.
With luck, his motion will be put on a Cannon-like fast track.
hueyplong
@Geminid: Check The Angle tonight as Laura Ingraham addresses Linda Replacement Theory.
...now I try to be amused
@Melancholy Jaques:
At the time I called the Starr Report “a Penthouse letter written by lawyers”.
schrodingers_cat
@Geminid: Same here.
...now I try to be amused
@Matt McIrvin:
Yes. Also, Trump’s chance of winning an acquittal is nil. His best hope in any trial is that a crypto-Trumper made it onto the jury and they resist the other jurors’ pressure to vote guilty. The defense’s performance is meant to stiffen that person’s spine, even if it pisses off everyone else.
Matt McIrvin
@…now I try to be amused: I think Aileen Cannon still has the power to simply unilaterally acquit him in the documents case, if she hangs on until it goes to trial and isn’t removed. Now if that were her primary strategy, she wouldn’t be stalling and showing obvious favoritism like she has; she’d let it go to a speedy trial and then shitcan it once the trial actually began and jeopardy was attached, so it couldn’t be reversed on appeal. So she clearly doesn’t want to do it. But the possibility is there.
rikyrah
Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) posted at 9:24 AM on Fri, May 10, 2024:
BREAKING: Steve Bannon’s appeal was unanimously rejected and he will be ordered to prison soon. By staying his prison sentence, he will now be incarcerated during the election. https://t.co/GV1IgtZPS3
(https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1788938289669435499?t=L5pjo0SyH-wYEeIyFQWjAA&s=03)
rikyrah
Marvin Sapp InTheSkreets/Marvin Gaye InTheSheets (@groove_sdc) posted at 0:28 PM on Fri, May 10, 2024:
Black voters won a big victory in Louisiana. Some white voters said it violated their “personal dignity.” – CNN https://t.co/iVm6QTBIMr
(https://x.com/groove_sdc/status/1788984543707385976?t=TwKkF4vinP8yU8YFlP9cTQ&s=03)
hueyplong
@rikyrah: Kind of interested to know if they’ll let him wear three orange jumpsuits. Come to think of it, that’s something the incontinent Trump might want to know as well.
rikyrah
@Geminid:
BWA HA AHA HA HA HA HA HA
cain
@Matt McIrvin: That would create some trouble for her because ultimately this case is about national security and the handling of documents. She would be marked by the national security folks as someone who is problematic. A whisper campaign would start.
JWR
F**kin’ clowns. Racist clowns, to boot. From NBC:
So now they’re against an inclusive school environment for all. A**holes.
Geminid
@rikyrah: Mr. Lobster is another Chicagoland resident. I really appreciate his earthy humor; it reminds me of my late friend Chris.
Citizen Alan
@Matt McIrvin:
That would be a directed verdict or something similar, which would be reviewable by an appellate court. I think her strategy is to hamstring the prosecution as much as possible to ensure an acquittal by a jury. And that is NOT appealable.
Matt McIrvin
@JWR: My mother used to work at Stonewall Jackson High School in Prince William County, but I see the move to rename it Unity Reed High School has not been reversed.
(Ibram X. Kendi is an alumnus–the student body is currently only about 17% non-Hispanic white)
...now I try to be amused
@JWR: So four votes out of six on the school board flipped to the bad. The right-wingers must have had a successful election between 2020 and today.
lowtechcyclist
@TBone:
I’d say he’s self-browning, and you can take it any way you like. :D
cmorenc
@TS: Actually, it’s not so hard at all to understand why so many people believe Trump’s frequent, egregious lies. Because he tells those people what they want to hear, and is skilled at pushing their emotional hot buttons that makes them so strongly receptive to them believing him. He effectively asks: “ what are you going to believe, your lying eyes and ears, or me telling you what you in your gut want to believe ?” That dynamic buys him a pass against a lot of otherwise blatantly, objectively untrue things he says.
Martin
@TBone: We don’t want the witnesses twisting the knife. Trump never asked for a gag order against the witnesses because he wanted them out there beating up on him so he could claim to be a victim. Every time a witness twists the knife, Trump locks down some voters.
JWR
@…now I try to be amused: I can’t speak to which votes flipped, but they were “concerned” that “the 2020 board’s decision was made hastily and without appropriate community input.” So as long as they think that the community is decidedly racist, then that’s what will guide their thinking, never mind what’s right or wrong.
Ryan
That image will never get old. I keep getting this song in my head. Donald Trump has a structured settlement but he needs cash now! Call J G Wentorth. 800-cash-now!!!
cmorenc
@Martin: People receptive to claims that Trump is the victim were never “unlocked” to begin with, although he might succeed thereby in motivating some low-turnout types to actually show up. But they were never really open to voting for anyone else anyways.
lowtechcyclist
@Geminid:
‘Betty’ is the name whose absence I’ve noticed for some time. Its graph at Matt’s link looks like the graph for ‘Linda,’ only shifted 10 years to the left, IOW ten years further into the past. Used to be any Betty I encountered was at least 10 years older than me; now that I’m 70, I just don’t run into any of them anymore. (Who’s Veronica going to hang out with now? ;-)
Another Scott
Speaking of pretending…
(19 second video)
And they missed!
Cheers,
Scott.
Martin
@cmorenc: Doesn’t matter. From 2016-2020 Trump picked up 12 million voters. He only lost because Biden picked up more. Nobody needed to switch votes. If he can hold his 2020 voters and Biden can’t, Trump wins.
Y’all focus WAY too much on converting voters.
smith
@lowtechcyclist: I was thinking of a whole raft of names that were common when I was a kid, but aren’t now: Pamela, Donna, Jean, Joan, Wanda…
Eyeroller
@MartinI don’t know who “y’all” is since I think most of us believe that converting voters is a lost cause. Working on turnout is the key.
Martin
@Eyeroller: I just replied to ‘y’all’. Don’t be so defensive.
JWR
NBC TV News just covered the racist Virginia school board meeting Here’s hoping they’re all booted out of office soon. They’ve also been covering the latest ad for Apple’s new ipad, which is crushingly… odd. From the AP
Jeffro
actual caption from Biden/Harris HQ, accompanying a video of trumpov’s rant outside the courtroom:
WOW
...now I try to be amused
@JWR:
In the iPad ad Apple literally crushes everything beautiful and fun, like the totalitarian regime in its 1984 Macintosh ad.
WTF were they thinking?
rikyrah
@Martin:
4 million people turn 18 in this country every year.
so that means, there will be 16 million people who can vote in 2024 that couldn’t vote in 2020.
Yes, we need to convert those folks to Democratic voters.
Baud
@JWR:
There’s a popular hydraulic press channel where some Scottish dude, I think, crushes various objects in his press. I wonder if Apple thought it could play off that theme.
Martin
@JWR: Seeing a lot of takes that Apple makes one ad (which they immediately apologize for getting wrong) meaning the company has lost their way.
I had a philosophy at work – everyone fucks up, what matters is that you own it and learn from it. If those things don’t happen, then you have lost your way.
jonas
I wonder if the fact that roughly 15-20% of the Republican base is still checking the box for Nicki Halley in the primaries these days is a sign that that’s not going too well. Of course a lot of those people will probably say they hate Biden more than they do Trump and hold their nose and vote for SFB come November anyway. But I bet a lot just stay home.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Sister Golden Bear: It’s fine because Twitter isn’t a person, so they can’t choose their own name. No one’s agency is being taken away.
O. Felix Culpa
@jonas:
That is my hope for my fundie in-laws. But I’m not holding my breath. They’re all in on the precious fetuses, which I suspect will override their distaste for TFG’s moral…coarseness.
hueyplong
@jonas: I’d hesitate to get excited about Haley numbers in open primaries. I voted for her myself in NC, and you can rest assured that I am not deserting Biden over the price of eggs at student protests.
Melancholy Jaques
@rikyrah:
The challenge will be to get them register, then vote. That demographic is not dense with voters.
hueyplong
@Melancholy Jaques: The youngs might feel a little more motivated with recreational sex on the ballot.
O. Felix Culpa
@Melancholy Jaques:
Historically true. However, this demographic is uniquely affected by Dobbs and other retrograde rulings. They also grew up with active shooter drills in school, which are far more terrifying than the fire drills and even bomb threats that my generation experienced.
As an elections worker, I saw remarkable student turnout (on a fairly apolitical campus) in 2022. We may see–and should work for–more of the same this year.
wjca
I think you’ll find he’s Finnish.
O. Felix Culpa
@wjca: Scottish, Finnish, in the end, it’s all Europeanish.
/s
Baud
@hueyplong: It’s about time the government mandated that.
@wjca: Close enough.
I don’t watch it. I have just heard about it.
TBone
@Martin: 🙄 puhleeze
Stormy will do as she damn well wants, she is not gagged because she is not the defendant, no matter how hard people want her to be. She’s done nothing illegal and she has put up with enough shit already. She’s not texting the jurors and every twist of the knife makes me laugh. She doesn’t have her own social media platform either.
We will not obey in advance. Ever.
Oh, and Rump did specifically ask for a gag order EXCEPTION so he could trash her again. Womp, womp – the answer was NO.
JWR
@Martin:
Hear, hear and amen to that!
Martin
@rikyrah: That’s not converting voters. They didn’t come out of the womb Trump voters and we need to make them Biden ones. Trumps entire campaign strategy is getting shaky 2020 voters to show up for 2024, and convincing shaky 2020 Biden voters to stay home. Every time a witness beats up on Trump and he is legally unable to respond (even if his lawyers invited that power imbalance), that locks down some shaky 2020 Trump voters. The statement I replied to:
was not something I proposed – that came entirely from OPs mind, as if these were gettable by Biden, as if that’s relevant to winning in 2024. It’s not. It’s not a sound Democratic strategy to let Trump lock in his 2020 electorate, and waving it away as though it is because it gives you the ‘Stormy Daniels DESTROYS Trump’ clickbait feels is a terrible take.
Yes, you need to get new voters on your side, but that’s not germane to any of these arguments. Trump isn’t going to convince new voters to vote for him because Stormy Daniels said something mean, and it’s not going to convince them to vote for Biden either.
Stormy Daniels beating up on Trump on Twitter doesn’t help Democrats, it helps Trump. Stop cheering it on. That was my point. And arguing the voters it does secure a vote from in November weren’t going to vote for Biden anyway is to completely miss the point of how elections in the US function. A vote not cast is worth exactly ½ of a vote flipped, and is WAY fucking cheaper to get.
And your point on young voters is why I’m critical of Democrats for overlooking those voters – getting them before they commit to a party is WAY cheaper than flipping someone.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
Is that true, though?
hueyplong
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: It’s not true. It makes him look like a loser, and that’s what he fears most.
Martin
@TBone: Stormy is not gagged, because Trump didn’t ask for witnesses to be gagged. I’m 99% sure the judge would have subjected them to comparable gag orders to Trump, had they asked – at least for Daniels and Cohen who are have invested a fair bit of energy in being active on social media around their story here.
Of course she will do as she pleases. And Trump benefits from that in this situation. That’s all. Don’t invite things that help Trump is my message. Don’t amplify it. Don’t incentivize it.
TBone
@hueyplong: 👍 nobody, NOT EVEN HIS OWN FAMILY, is showing up for him (except for one day with Ewic). Melanie MIA. Ivanka MIA. Supporters outside: MIA. The only idiots showing up are running for Veep.
Eyeroller
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: It could, and also reports of him sleeping and farting in court could turn off moderates and convert some of that 38% lowtechcyclist mentioned a while back, who according some polls “aren’t sure” whether Trump or Biden is more mentally and physically fit, to at worst decide they’re the same. That’s a useful “conversion.”
Martin is assuming that there is a latent sympathy vote for Trump among people who would otherwise have been less enthusiastic this year, and he may well be right, but we don’t really know that.
TBone
@Martin: you think that fucking guy gets to grant permission for witnesses to speak? HA! Because he didn’t ask the Court to protect him from the scary witnesses? What are you smoking? He is powerless, you know, like any other criminal defendant! For once in his fucked up life! He doesn’t get to decide who gets to speak about anything, only the Judge running the trial does.
This trial is not a political campaign!!!!!!!!!
Sister Golden Bear
@rikyrah: <inserts Loki gif> Yes, very sad. Anyway…
TBone
@TBone: this is designated natzi safety advocate bullshit again.
Martin
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: I think there’s enough evidence that Trump is steadily winning back his never-Trumpers not because they support his policies or him in isolation, but because Trump is really good at activating their feelings of ‘they’re out to get us – see – they can say whatever they want about me and I’ve been censored’. Nevermind that he engineered this dynamic.
Listen to the people who previously spoke out against Trump and why they say they will vote for him now.
Plus it’s not a great look for Democrats because Democrats don’t support situations when someone cannot even in good faith respond to a claim, and yet, here are Democrats chortling over that dynamic – see how hypocritical they are. We can insert various qualifiers that Trump never acts in good faith or that this is at best a minor and very temporary power imbalance, but it’s still not a great look. I don’t think it’s a radical idea that if a defendant has a gag order against public statements against witnesses, that it shouldn’t work both ways. Not that the defendants can’t publicly speak in their own defense, just that they can’t attack the defendant who they know can’t say anything back. That’s all.
Dan B
@Martin: My impression is that Stormy made SFB look less manly which should dampen some MAGATS who think we need a Strong Father / Macho Brute to get the US back on track = get rid of liberal sissies.
Redshift
@Martin:
It’s possible, but I don’t think it’s reasonable to just state it as fact. He constantly lies about what the gag order prevents him from doing (claiming it prevents him from testifying) and constantly whines about other people being allowed to say bad things about him in any context. In an atmosphere of complete reality-denial, I’m not at all convinced the specific things that are actually true have much to do with how motivated his lower-propensity voters are.
I do think it would probably be better for the prosecution if Daniels and especially Michael Cohen were talking less about the case, and the prosecution (from what I’ve read) could actually ask for a gag order against their own witnesses (though it would be unusual), but presumably they think the optics of that would be even worse for their case.
Redshift
@Martin:
You’re certainly entitled to that opinion, but I haven’t seen anything that would qualify as evidence. Do you have anything specific to point to? (Being sincere here, not just argumentative — there could well be things I’ve missed.)
japa21
@Martin:
What evidence are you referring to? In virtually all the polls (yeah I know…polls) he has been within a 2 point spread for several months. He isn’t gaining any support. Meanwhile, Biden’s numbers have been going up, particularly among likely voters.
Splitting Image
@Martin:
You might get proven right in November, but for now I’m going to disagree. Daniels’ testimony is going to be very familiar to many, many women out there, young and old, and the cross-examination of her is going to hit home as well. The encounter itself was a textbook date rape, and the cross-examination was a textbook DARVO.
Aside from maybe Black Lives Matter, getting women who have been sexually assaulted to speak up and confront their accusers is just about the most important political issue for young people the last decade or so. It still is, even if Gaza is pushing it out of “Trending on Twitter”. Daniels dissing Trump personally and him having to sit there and take it (for once) is a big effing deal.
TBone
This article I posted earlier upthread addresses the very subject of Rump losing, not gaining, support:
https://digbysblog.net/2024/05/10/no-one-can-call-trump-gutless/
jonas
College students generally turn out in pretty good numbers, relatively speaking. Political engagement is just part of the college experience. Remember, though, only about 1/3 of high school grads go off to college — it’s that other 2/3 of the youth vote that needs to be mobilized and motivated and that has proven challenging.
gvg
@TBone: I would think threats by a witness to a defendant or their family would be intimidation just as it is when Trump makes threats. I bet this has come up millions of times and that there are laws. I can see someone allowing themselves to be found guilty if the threats are frightening enough. I haven’t heard anything to make me think that is what Cohen is doing. I think he is just taunting, possibly because he went to jail because of Trump and resents it.
Melancholy Jaques
@Dan B:
I do not believe MAGA enthusiasm can be dampened. Their enthusiasm isn’t related to anything in the real world.
TBone
@gvg: as always, the only ones making threats are the orange anus, his minions, and his Fux mouthpieces.
smith
@TBone: The defense did ask today for Cohen to be gagged, but the judge said no. He did request that the prosecution lean on him to keep quiet, though.
TBone
@smith: am aware. Cohen has not testified yet, so is not free to talk about the trial in advance of his testimony. Stormy is a horse of a different color.
“Please speak to your guy” is fair play since judge has only said that over and over to defense counsel till today.
Martin
Read my actual words. Trump gets a gag order against attacking witnesses. His lawyers have the right to ask for a similar gag order against witnesses attacking the defendant. That’s not unheard of. But Trump never asked for that, because Trump’s entire campaign is about playing the victim, and having Cohen and Daniels attacking him while the gag order is in effect helps him to do that. It helps his campaign. If they had asked and been turned down, that something else entirely. But they never asked – and it’s reasonable to ask in this case – especially with Cohen.
And note, you are seeing the judge leaning on the prosecution to get Daniels and Cohen to stop taking about the case – which they were asked to do by the judge – because it’s not beneficial to preserving the public’s faith in the legal system if the public perceives an unfairness. Trump benefits from that unfairness, the judge does not.
My god people, for all the reams written on this blog about the damage USSC is doing to the perception of rule of law in this country, you’re awful quick to take a situation where if it was anyone but Trump as defendant, you’d question whether this was fair, or worse, that it was damaging to people’s perception of being able to get a fair trial. I get it, it’s Trump.
But you don’t believe criminal defendants should be powerless – certainly liberals don’t. You only believe that for certain criminal defendants. Liberals have historically stood for defendants having rights, for the trail to be fair and seeming free from bias.
Note the running criticisms of the judge against Trumps lawyers – that they aren’t objecting (the judge is doing that for them) and then demanding a mistrial, etc. The judge won’t issue the gag order against the witnesses unless one of the parties asks him to – and nobody has asked. The judge is getting annoyed that Trump’s attorneys are deliberately running this case to appear to be a miscarriage of justice, because it favors them to do so.
All I’m saying is ‘don’t help him’. I’m not trying to silence Daniels. I didn’t say she shouldn’t exercise her liberties. I said we shouldn’t encourage it or amplify it because it helps Trump. If Daniels wants to do something that helps Trump in exchange for likes, that’s her business. Fuck, MTG has been shivving the GOP for the last 2 years for likes and I’m not about to discourage that. All I said was:
And you have come out with a full throated defense of why an emotional victory is better than an electoral one.
O. Felix Culpa
@jonas: You are correct that the majority of young people do not attend college, and that GOTV with that group is harder (but not impossible, based on personal experience with such outreach efforts). That said, I would not downplay the student turnout witnessed in 2022, despite our team’s need to find the cloud in every silver lining. It was remarkable, according to longtime elections workers, especially for an off-year. I found it heartening.
Martin
@Melancholy Jaques: Where did the 12 million voters come from between 2016 and 2020?
Geminid
@Martin: Y’all??! Sheesh.
It’s a well known fact that conversion strategies are less effective than base motivation strategies, and that’s been said so many times here that people have stopped saying it, just like they no longer point out that “Hispanics are not a monolith.” I think you are confusing analysis and prognostication with positive election strategy.
Sure Lurkalot
@Martin: No crystal ball here, the fact that the fucker could win is horrifying and has me checking out places to escape to.
But the “every time someone reports he shits his pants, he gets 100 new voters” is a bit much.
Martin
THAT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH WHAT SHE SAID ON TWITTER. Everything that she said on the stand has been reported and is where you got 100% of your argument from. All of that was above board. My argument was that it doesn’t benefit Democrats to have her leave court, go on Twitter, and make a joke attacking Trump when Trump can’t respond. That’s all. I didn’t even say she shouldn’t say it if the judge allows. All I said was that it helps Trump with his campaign of ‘look at how much of a victim I am’, which, by the way, is his entire campaign.
How does Daniels trolling Trump about ‘real men testify’ help that argument in any way?
TBone
@Martin: have you ever been an actual criminal defendant in any criminal court? Most people STFU and listen to what the JUDGE and his or her attorney(s) instruct as a wise course. Not this fucking guy. He’s special.
Also note: Stormy waited until after her testimony to razz him. Dotard starts with everyone before, during, and after.
rikyrah
No…absolutely not…ridiculous…
MeidasTouch
@MeidasTouch
NEW: Senator Katie Britt, who creeped out America following her bizarre State of the Union response, has introduced a bill to create a federal database of pregnant Americans.
https://x.com/MeidasTouch/status/1789007288860307554
Baud
@rikyrah:
I hate when the acronym is in the acronym.
smith
@rikyrah: Isn’t that what the Defendant was endorsing a week or so back? Do they realize that not only would they have to ban the abortion pill, but also home pregnancy tests for this to be effective to keep the brood stock in line? Or that many women would avoid prenatal care to keep from being monitored? Not that they care much about the last one.
Paul in KY
@Ruckus: Naw. That’s the drawn out, 2 syllable version of ‘shit’. Like when you just get your new car detailed and a flock of buzzards you didn’t realize were in the big tree you parked under and they got startled and all crapped on your car before flying off. Only a ‘sheeeeit’ will handle that situation.
WaterGirl
@RevRick: There is a match! Last night I decided to make it a double-angel match, but haven’t announced it yet. But it will still count as a double-match for you and for the two people who sent me email about their donations.
So teh first $50 of yours is 6x ($300) + your other $200 that will be matched by the external match ($400) = $700!
Go you!
Melancholy Jaques
@Martin:
Of the 12 million, how many were 18-22?
How did their turnout compare with other age brackets?
scav
@rikyrah: “No National ID!” “Keep the Deep State off My Back!” “Radio-Tag those Wimminz!”
What was that scariest phrase they always go on and on and on about? “I’m from the government and I’m here to help?”
Also, what kind of low-rent geographic search returns only a ZIP match? Some are huge, some are tiny and some really only apply to a set of PO boxes in a rural area. Hell, I had a PO box that came equipped with its own singular ZIP+4.
JWR
Geez, I hate it when this blurg gets into psychoanalyzing the statistical analysis of individual groups of what undecided voters had for breakfast on the third day of the week before their first bowel movement… oh screw it, just GOTV! ;)
WaterGirl
@rikyrah: That links to apple news, which I don’t have.
Can you do a quick summary?
Baud
@WaterGirl:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/06/politics/louisiana-congressional-map-voting-rights-act/index.html
WaterGirl
@Jeffro: I wonder if that new nym “uncle joe” whose first comment I just approved is the real uncle joe. //
prostratedragon
Tracking some common names from my era that have become rare, I see that Karen was in 15th or better place from about 1946 to 1970, then began falling rapidly, leaving the top 200 with a 47 point drop in 2009. As one might guess, still falling like a rock since. At any given time in my various school cohorts through college, there were always many Karens.
WaterGirl
@rikyrah: That’s not creepy at all. //
WaterGirl
@Baud: Thanks! That’s a bad headline – it makes it sound like something good just happened for black people and some white people are whining about it.
When, in fact, the good thing happened awhile ago, and the white folks are blocking it so the good thing won’t go into effect before November, if at all.
Fair Economist
@Matt McIrvin: The most noticeable change to me is that over the period of the graph, names are becoming more diverse. The most common boy’s name today (Liam) is only 1/10th as common as the most common at the start (William). I approve of this, as I think your first name should ordinarily identify you in a room. It definitely doesn’t for people born in the mid-20th century, but it should usually work in people named since 2000.
Another Scott
Meanwhile, …
Donnie haz a sad.
[ womp, womp ]
Cheers,
Scott.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: Laura Rozen just posted excerpts from the State Department’s report on Israel’s compliance with international law in its Gaza offensive. She also posted screenshots of all 16 pages. I’m hoping one of Balloon Juice’s hardworking Front Pagers might find time to put this up over the weekend.
I’m pretty sure Maryland Senator Chris Van Hollen will be talking about the report when he appears on CBS’s Face the Nation.
Anyone wanting to see this can find it on Twitter at @lrozen and at BluesSky at lkrozen.bsky. There will be plenty of reporting on other sites too.
Dan B
@Martin: I get that Stormy trolling SFB outside the courtroom feeds into his “I’m the victim” story. Since that’s his story morning noon, and night I’m not sure it makes much difference how many different iterations exist. His base of “victims” will make up stories but it’s also true we don’t need to make it easier.
TBone
@Another Scott: 🤣😆
Dan B
@Baud: How much money is available to fund childcare for 18 years? Oh, adoption if you can’t afford the care. And how many of these kids will be in foster care? Will there be mental health care funding fir them – generous funding guaranteed forever?
Seems like Britt wants to be Aunt Lydia but not called that. Good luck.
TBone
@Dan B: he cries no matter who says what to whom. He’s the easiest victim that ever lived. Stormy is not performing stochastic terrorism here. Guess who does that?
Dan B
@TBone: Pundits saying that Trump cries like a stuck pig would be quite accurate. Whiney baby is also on the mark.
TBone
@Dan B: also: incompetent criminal who left a paper trail of checks, invoices, and ledger entries. I mean, DUH ! How dumb do you have to be to pay off with a fucking bank check? Let alone, eleven bank checks 🤣
Slightly_peeved
@Martin:
Firstly, they did ask for a witness to be gagged.
Secondly, they did ask for a witness to be gagged. Technically this is the same as the first point, but it is such an important point I figured it was worth mentioning twice.
Thirdly, the main potential effect of Stormy and Cohen taunting him is to get him to breach his gag order and get his ass locked up. If you think him being in jail is going to be a vote-getter, we’ll have to agree to disagree on that one.
Chief Oshkosh
@Martin:
I’m not sure I understand how it would be possible to know the outcome of this dynamic. I don’t mean this in a passive-aggressive way – I mean, truly, I’m just not seeing it.
That said, I am pretty sure that if her goading him adds up with other things to send him over the edge and demand to testify and he ends up on the stand, then that would be a very, very good thing.
TBone
@Chief Oshkosh: she flipped the power dynamics script. Flipped him right off!
rikyrah
@WaterGirl:
gerrymandering cheated the Black voters out of Congressional seats. Went through the Courts, which ultimately said, yes, Black voters were cheated and they need additional Congressional seats drawn to match their population
Now, White folks feelings are hurt 😒, which of course should mean more than the repression of Black voters
Gvg
@jonas: I have never heard that college students turned out in high numbers. Historically they haven’t except during the Vietnam draft era and…recently, as they are again seeing politics as affecting them directly. Students also tended to have a low turnout because it was made harder for them to vote. They have to decide where to vote, back home, with problems of access at the right time, or at college. A lot of college towns don’t want the temporary resident students to swing local elections on their issues. So registering to vote is made harder, just like for any other unpopular group. Unpopular with the political powers, that is.
TerryC
@TheOtherHank: I claim to have invented the term with that pronunciation and for those reasons.