Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Innocent people do not delay justice.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

There are a lot more evil idiots than evil geniuses.

You cannot love your country only when you win.

Let me file that under fuck it.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

Republicans in disarray!

I am pretty sure these ‘journalists’ were not always such a bootlicking sycophants.

Give the craziest people you know everything they want and hope they don’t ask for more? Great plan.

All hail the time of the bunny!

A norm that restrains only one side really is not a norm – it is a trap.

Human rights are not a matter of opinion!

Also, are you sure you want people to rate your comments?

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

Everything is totally normal and fine!!!

“What are Republicans afraid of?” Everything.

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

“woke” is the new caravan.

Giving up is unforgivable.

So very ready.

Text STOP to opt out of updates on war plans.

American history and black history cannot be separated.

One lie, alone, tears the fabric of reality.

The revolution will be supervised.

You are here: Home / Politics / Trump Indictments / Trump’s NY Criminal Trial / Trump’s NY Criminal Trial, Day 15

Trump’s NY Criminal Trial, Day 15

by | 225 Comments

This post is in: , , ,

.It’s Day 11 of the actual trial!  Day 15 if you include jury selection.

It looks like Michael Cohen will be testifying on Monday!

Best sources of live blogging that I have found.  It looks like some of them are only live blogging for the “big” witnesses.  We’ll see.

Josh Kovensky   (TPM)   live blogging (not up today)

Mark Sumner (Daily Kos)  live blogging  (not up yet today)

Tyler McBrien (Lawfare) on twitter  (not live blogging today)

AP Live blogging

Anna Bower (Lawfare) on twitter (inside the courtroom)

Adam Klasfeld on twitter (not up yet today)

NBC live blogging and BBC live blogging have also been recommended by BJ peeps.

NBC live blogging

Still loving this awesome image.  When you get tired of it, let me know.

Open thread.

Reader Interactions

225Comments

  1. 1.

    hueyplong

    Maybe the pic could be photoshopped to make it appear that the pitch is being made to a cluster of oil company CEOs.

    But if it can’t, stick with this one until, say, November.

  3. 3.

    TBone

    Mags Habs

    May 10, 2024, 9:31 a.m. ET

    Trump enters the courtroom, carrying a sheaf of printouts with him. He walks to the defense table and slams them down there. He’s trailed by two advisers, Susie Wiles and Boris Epshteyn. His lead lawyer, Todd Blanche, laughs and grins.

    Bet that’s going over like a fart in a court room.

  5. 5.

    smith

    @Sid: I have especially appreciated the end of day wrapups. Agnifilo often provides interpretations I would have missed.

  7. 7.

    Anonymous at Work

    Bets on print outs?

    Ten bucks on Xhits supporting a third mistrial motion.

  9. 9.

    Scout211

    Most of what I have posted here in the trial threads comes from the NBC live updates.  I think I was the one who recommended NBC.

    The NBC updates are often slow in coming but are full of direct quotes and descriptions of the testimony in paragraph form which is more my speed. Plus, they throw in some analysis from their legal experts. But YMMV.  

    I will be gone most of the morning but I will catch up on this thread when I get back home.  Have fun out there.  😉

  10. 10.

    TBone

    Apparently Westerhout wasn’t as “worried” about Rump’s family as he was 😆 when she trashed the females in public.

  14. 14.

    Scout211

    Judge Merchan denied the defense’s motion to introduce a travel schedule from Trump’s campaign in October 2016 into evidence.

    Trump’s lawyer Susan Necheles was asking the witness about the schedule, which shows dates during which Trump traveled at that time and was shared with the Republican National Convention and with his campaign.

    However, after a sidebar, Merchan denied Necheles’ request to enter the document into evidence.

    Why would they request this?

  15. 15.

    Butch

    @WaterGirl: I changed my e-mail; we got a notice that MagicMail is shutting down in a month and the computer tech advised me to make the change to Gmail as soon as possible.  Prob’ly that’s why?

  17. 17.

    Scout211

    Andrew Giuliani, a former Trump White House aide who later ran for New York governor, strode past the press line to enter the courthouse this morning.

    For LAO:  Trump’s emotional support person today?

  18. 18.

    TBone

    @NotMax: someone here dubbed that assistant with the mobile printer his “emotional support printer.” She looks like Ivanka (shocker 🙄). At the beginning of the trial, she was asked to move out of front row seating.

  19. 19.

    WaterGirl

    @Butch: That’s definitely why!  Now that I approved your first comment with the new email, your comments will show up right away again for everyone.

    I had looked at your email, and the first part looked familiar and I didn’t find a missing letter on .com (for instance) so it appeared your email was good. :-)

  22. 22.

    smith

    @Scout211: This was when the Stormy deal went down. Maybe they wanted to argue that he was too busy campaigning to be personally involved in it.

  26. 26.

    Trivia Man

    @Scout211: I have been following NBC because sneaking peeks at work its a good, steady, short update if highlights easy to perk and run.
    And a few links in case i want the back story article.

    Bonus: if the company decides to search my browser history NBC News is a very normie thing to look at. I also go to fox for their major points.

  27. 27.

    Scout211

    Westerhout, Trump’s former White House executive assistant, confirmed that she met with the defense earlier in the week to prepare for her testimony.

    It was one of the last questions she answered before her time on the stand wrapped up.

  28. 28.

    Trivia Man

    @Anoniminous: “X” is unclear and easily confused with other stuff (like the Roman ‘ten’ for example!) so nee “twitter” becomes Xitter. And a post isnt a tweet, its a “Xhit” pronounced just the way we think it should be.

  38. 38.

    TS

    @Scout211:

    Why would they request this?

    From ABC  blog – I think trump’s lawyers were trying to provide reasons why trumps cheques to be signed went to aide’s homes – he was travelling so he wanted to get them quickly & the staff would know where he was?

    They are trying everything in the hope that something works.

  40. 40.

    WereBear

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: Possibly printed out by that assistant who follows him around with a portable printer to give him ego-stroking posts.

    It’s getting into Voltaire levels lately.

    50,103 words as of dawn this morning, and it’s a novel! With room to spare. Taking the rest of the day off to let my brain cool down.🤣

  44. 44.

    oldgold

    Amusing that many of the live bloggers noted that Stormy’s testimony was not central to the case and decried the salacious nature of her testimony, but live blogged her time on the stand and then vanished.

  54. 54.

    Soprano2

    @TBone: I think TFG doesn’t understand that the things that make the MAGA’s excited are going to offend or even piss off the jury and the judge.

  56. 56.

    TBone

    Stormy is twisting the knife today, mentioning that “real men” testify 😆🤣 gawd I love her, she knows real men wear diapers.

  59. 59.

    frosty

    @WereBear: ​50,103 words! Amazing! Congratulations!! Now for the editing, which I always found to be the easy part (just professional reports and papers for me though.)

  60. 60.

    Another Scott

    A quick light diversion:

    Dreadnought Holiday
    @[email protected]

    Tech bros love to boast about moving fast and breaking things, so it comes as some relief to find an instance where they’ve moved at a more stately 17 knots and yet still utterly fucked it.

    In this case the “it” being carpool vehicles. Programmed to treat movement without the engine being switched on as either theft or witchcraft, they instantly bricked themselves in response.

    What happened when these vehicles travelled by ferry was perhaps predictable…

    #FailureFriday

    (unrelated pic!)

    D’Oh!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  63. 63.

    TS

    @smith:

    It is so hard to understand why anyone believes him. Lies about polls, lies about golf, lies about everything he did/did not do at President. I’m just reading about Manafort back in the fold – normal, regular folks don’t exist in trump’s world – only sycophants are welcome.

    The former Trump campaign chairman, who’s likely to help manage this summer’s GOP convention, resumed consulting work after being pardoned in 2020.

    wapo.st/4dt0KYB  (gift link)

  64. 64.

    bk

    Thank god for the important CNN coverage:

    Trump has left the courtroom

    Donald Trump has left the courtroom. He gave Fox News host Jeanine Pirro a pat on the shoulder as he walked out into the hallway.

  65. 65.

    Sure Lurkalot

    The printouts remind me of a boss who got stuck in time when email became ubiquitous in the workplace. Typing was “women’s work” so he would write out his (often vitriolic) missives on a yellow legal pad and hand it off to his admin to type and send AND have her print out the responses because he apparently couldn’t even read off the computer screen. He did this all day long.

    On the good side, I have him to thank for being fairly and well compensated for the 1st time in my career, in my mid 40’s.

  66. 66.

    TS

    And from the ABC

    Judge Merchan just said they’ll work until 1 p.m. or a bit after today so that they don’t need to return to the trial after lunch.

  68. 68.

    Ruckus

    @Scout211:

    Why would they request this?

    ShitForBrains?

    This is a guy who thinks his shit doesn’t stink, which is why he fills his diaper with it regularly. This is a guy who thinks the world revolves around the theoretical stick up his butt. (He couldn’t continually crap his pants with a stick blocking the output port – unless he’s just so full of shit that there is no stopping it…. Oh wait! Maybe/likely it just oouzes out of every pore and opening – that would explain a lot.

  71. 71.

    Ruckus

    @TBone:

    I always thought that sheeeit was because they didn’t know how to spell or speak. (and possibly because they may have possibly shit the bed on occasion….)

  73. 73.

    Ruckus

    @TS:

    So with all those flattering “printouts” trump doesn’t seem able to read them very well.

    That’s OK he doesn’t do anything very well.

    Except of course screw up – he seems excellent at that.

  74. 74.

    cmorenc

    @smith:

    @Scout211: This was when the Stormy deal went down. Maybe they wanted to argue that he was too busy campaigning to be personally involved in it.

    Probably so, but wouldn’t that allegation contradict Trump staffers’ own testimony about how good Trump is at “multitasking”?  Especially during plane rides to and from campaign events.

  75. 75.

    Sure Lurkalot

    @Anoniminous: Actually, X (chi) in Greek is an aspirated K sound. My departed dad will be happy I have used the Classics degrees he funded. (But sincerely, they have served me well).

  76. 76.

    MomSense

    I think I’ve lost the ability to gauge what resonates with people.  It seems like Stormy is doing well and that the defense hasn’t successfully made any holes in this whole payment and cover up being about the election.  Again it seems like that to me but the last 10 years of stupidity about trump have me questioning everything.

  77. 77.

    Sure Lurkalot

    @Soprano2:

    I think TFG doesn’t understand that the things that make the MAGA’s excited are going to offend or even piss off the jury and the judge.

    He has believed his entire life that his shit doesn’t stink and now the whole world knows it most certainly does.

     

  83. 83.

    Steve in the ATL

    @MomSense:

    the last 10 years of stupidity about trump have me questioning everything.

    Ain’t that the truth

     

    @Almost Retired:

    Legal. So I can also do pretentious Latin phrases as an additional party trick.

    Res ipsa loquitur!
    Res judicata!
    Cave canem!*

    *free legal advice regarding dog bite law: first bite is free! After that, the dog is a known risk and greater liability applies.

  85. 85.

    Melancholy Jaques

    @oldgold:

    Kind of like when Ken Starr and the Republicans claimed their impeachment of Bill Clinton was not about his daliance, then included every detail in the report.

  87. 87.

    TBone

    MSNBC is unwatchable for trial today, they’re already out to lunch for Friday.  That’s the lunch “hour” where you just go the hell home for the weekend.

  88. 88.

    jonas

    @TS:  So with all those flattering “printouts” trump doesn’t seem able to read them very well.

    We’ve known for a long time Trump is functionally illiterate — he can’t really read anything beyond the shorter words in the Fox News chyron crawl. I’m guessing one reason his own lawyers never put him on the stand — aside from the fact that he’ll perjure himself in 3 seconds — is that if he’s ever asked to read something or identify something in a text that’s printed out for him, it will be obvious he can’t do it. Even if his illiteracy could be a useful defense in some instances.

  96. 96.

    Juju

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: The interesting thing about that story to me is, Trump and his family did a similar thing for his father Fred Trump when he was going through Alzheimer’s. Fred would come to the office and the family would give him meaningless paperwork to  keep him busy and entertained.  I wish I could remember where I read that, I think it might have been People magazine.  I do the same thing with meaningless mail for my mother now that she has dementia and can’t handle dealing with serious mail.

  97. 97.

    TheOtherHank

    As far as Xit, Xitter, etc go, I believe that comes from how Chinese is rendered in our alphabet. Q, for example, is pronounced like ch and X is pronounced like sh. So this gives us Shit and Shitter. Which seems appropriate for the way the place is currently run.

  98. 98.

    oldgold

    The prosecution has built about as much corroborative scaffolding as they can around the upcoming Cohen testimony.  Hopefully, it is enough to keep him upright.

    Still, I am nervous about Cohen’s testimony.  In cross, the defense will have a lot to work with and my guess is Cohen will not be as composed a witness as Stormy was. The saving grace may be Trump’s attorneys; who to date, have performed at a level much less than above reproach.

  99. 99.

    hueyplong

    @oldgold: I’m more optimistic.

    I can see him saying, “Yeah, I crimed, and crimed a lot.  Each time, did it on Trump’s instructions, for his benefit.  And got paid by him to do it.”

    “I was lying under oath before, on his instructions, to cover up his crimes.  Doing that was criminal, and I did my time for that.  Now I’m no longer under instructions to lie under oath so now I’m telling the truth.”

    Seems kind of straightforward.

  100. 100.

    narya

    I would like to see the prosecution use Cohen very, very narrowly, which, IIUC, would limit what could be asked under cross (BJ attorneys? am I right?). Short questions, short answers, little or no elaboration. I think it could be very effective AND get under the orange one’s skin. I doubt that’s what will happen, though.

  101. 101.

    hueyplong

    @narya: An exception to the limitation you’re stating is stuff that goes to credibility.  Pretty big crack in that door.  That’s probably part of what worries oldgold.

  106. 106.

    smith

    The prosecution says it will probably call only 2 more witnesses, and likely be done by the end of next week. It will be interesting to see who the defense will call. This trial is going faster than I had anticipated.

  107. 107.

    smith

    Now the defense is asking for a gag order on Cohen, as he’s been mercilessly trolling the Defendant on line. Can a judge gag a witness? Isn’t there a real First Amendment problem with that?

  109. 109.

    divF

    @Steve in the ATL:

    “Why do specialists use Latin and Greek?”
    “One part hokum, and two parts need; there simply not being enough letters in the alphabet of exposition without them. It is as difficult to name concepts as children, and we search our brains as a new mother does. It will not do to call two children or two concepts by one name.”

    – R.A. Lafferty

  112. 112.

    TBone

    @smith: I don’t see how the judge can gag a private citizen who is not under his jurisdiction and who has already been adjudicated and done his time in the penal system from conspiring with the defendant who is currently in front of him.  Ha ha I said penal.

  113. 113.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Soprano2:

    I think TFG doesn’t understand that the things that make the MAGA’s excited are going to offend or even piss off the jury and the judge.

    This could actually be rational, since Trump’s best chance for evading most of his legal troubles isn’t to win in court but to be elected President (even if it’s literally from a prison cell). So he really needs a political strategy instead of a legal one.

  117. 117.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Marcopolo: This old site shows graphically how names have risen and dropped in popularity over the past 140 years or so:

    engaging-data.com/baby-name-visualizer/

    The most consistent pattern I remember noticing just has to do with initial sounds: names beginning with vowels were really popular in the late 19th century, reached a low ebb at the middle 20th century, and are now popular again (though some may already be past peak). Names beginning with the hardest consonants like K, P and T are the reverse: they had their peak in the middle 20th century and declined after that. Softer consonants are in between, no easy-to-generalize pattern there.

  118. 118.

    Caveatimperator

    @Marcopolo:

    “Fastest-growing” is a statistic that often pretends to represent more than it really does. It can be really deceptive.

    Here, it can represent baby names that aren’t really all that popular as a whole, but have grown in popularity because the starting point was low.

  119. 119.

    smith

    At last, it looks like Steve Bannon will be headed to jail (and doesn’t he have yet another trial coming up over his bogus wall fraud?), and Peter Navarro is desperately trying to get out of jail. It seems he’s found the accommodations to be unsatisfactory.

  121. 121.

    Geminid

    @Matt McIrvin: The Wall Street Journal had an article about a Society of Lindas. They have annual conventions where women named Linda meet and celebrate Lindahood.

    Some of them remember going to school in the 1950s and 60s and being one of several Lindas in their classes, but now they’re having a hard time finding young Lindas to replenish their Society’s ranks.

  122. 122.

    hueyplong

    @smith: This is a very nice spin on the old canard about a conservative being a liberal who has been mugged.

    Can’t wait for Navarro to champion prison reform, though it looks like the sell by date on any such phase of his career is the first week of July.

    With luck, his motion will be put on a Cannon-like fast track.

  124. 124.

    ...now I try to be amused

    @Melancholy Jaques:

    Kind of like when Ken Starr and the Republicans claimed their impeachment of Bill Clinton was not about his daliance, then included every detail in the report.

    At the time I called the Starr Report “a Penthouse letter written by lawyers”.

  126. 126.

    ...now I try to be amused

    @Matt McIrvin:

    This could actually be rational, since Trump’s best chance for evading most of his legal troubles isn’t to win in court but to be elected President (even if it’s literally from a prison cell). So he really needs a political strategy instead of a legal one.

    Yes. Also, Trump’s chance of winning an acquittal is nil. His best hope in any trial is that a crypto-Trumper made it onto the jury and they resist the other jurors’ pressure to vote guilty. The defense’s performance is meant to stiffen that person’s spine, even if it pisses off everyone else.

  127. 127.

    Matt McIrvin

    @…now I try to be amused: I think Aileen Cannon still has the power to simply unilaterally acquit him in the documents case, if she hangs on until it goes to trial and isn’t removed. Now if that were her primary strategy, she wouldn’t be stalling and showing obvious favoritism like she has; she’d let it go to a speedy trial and then shitcan it once the trial actually began and jeopardy was attached, so it couldn’t be reversed on appeal. So she clearly doesn’t want to do it. But the possibility is there.

  130. 130.

    hueyplong

    @rikyrah: Kind of interested to know if they’ll let him wear three orange jumpsuits.  Come to think of it, that’s something the incontinent Trump might want to know as well.

  132. 132.

    cain

    @Matt McIrvin: That would create some trouble for her because ultimately this case is about national security and the handling of documents. She would be marked by the national security folks as someone who is problematic. A whisper campaign would start.

  133. 133.

    JWR

    F**kin’ clowns. Racist clowns, to boot. From NBC:

    The school board in Shenandoah County, Virginia, early Friday approved a proposal that will restore the names of Confederate military leaders to two public schools.

    The measure, which passed 5-1, reverses a previous board’s decision in 2020 to change the names of schools that had been linked to Stonewall Jackson, Robert E. Lee and Turner Ashby, three men who led the pro-slavery Southern states during the Civil War.

    Mountain View High School will go back to the name Stonewall Jackson High School. Honey Run Elementary School will go back to the name Ashby-Lee Elementary School.

    […]

    Four years ago, a previous incarnation of the board moved to change the names in a 5-1 vote, according to minutes from a meeting held July 9, 2020. The minutes say that the goal of the resolution was “condemning racism and affirming the division’s commitment to an inclusive school environment for all.”

    So now they’re against an inclusive school environment for all. A**holes.

  134. 134.

    Geminid

    @rikyrah: Mr. Lobster is another Chicagoland resident. I really appreciate his earthy humor; it reminds me of my late friend Chris.

  135. 135.

    Citizen Alan

    @Matt McIrvin:

    I think Aileen Cannon still has the power to simply unilaterally acquit him in the documents case

    That would be a directed verdict or something similar, which would be reviewable by an appellate court. I think her strategy is to hamstring the prosecution as much as possible to ensure an acquittal by a jury. And that is NOT appealable.

  136. 136.

    Matt McIrvin

    @JWR: My mother used to work at Stonewall Jackson High School in Prince William County, but I see the move to rename it Unity Reed High School has not been reversed.

    (Ibram X. Kendi is an alumnus–the student body is currently only about 17% non-Hispanic white)

  137. 137.

    ...now I try to be amused

    @JWR: So four votes out of six on the school board flipped to the bad. The right-wingers must have had a successful election between 2020 and today.

  139. 139.

    cmorenc

    @TS: Actually, it’s not so hard at all to understand why so many people believe Trump’s frequent, egregious lies.  Because he tells those people what they want to hear, and is skilled at pushing their emotional hot buttons that makes them so strongly receptive to them believing him.  He effectively asks: “ what are you going to believe, your lying eyes and ears, or me telling you what you in your gut want to believe ?”  That dynamic buys him a pass against a lot of otherwise blatantly, objectively untrue things he says.

  140. 140.

    Martin

    @TBone: We don’t want the witnesses twisting the knife. Trump never asked for a gag order against the witnesses because he wanted them out there beating up on him so he could claim to be a victim. Every time a witness twists the knife, Trump locks down some voters.

  141. 141.

    JWR

    @…now I try to be amused: I can’t speak to which votes flipped, but they were “concerned” that “the 2020 board’s decision was made hastily and without appropriate community input.” So as long as they think that the community is decidedly racist, then that’s what will guide their thinking, never mind what’s right or wrong.

  142. 142.

    Ryan

    That image will never get old.  I keep getting this song in my head.  Donald Trump has a structured settlement but he needs cash now!  Call J G Wentorth.  800-cash-now!!!

  143. 143.

    cmorenc

    @Martin: People receptive to claims that Trump is the victim were never “unlocked” to begin with, although he might succeed thereby in motivating some low-turnout types to actually show up.  But they were never really open to voting for anyone else anyways.

  144. 144.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Geminid: ​

    @Matt McIrvin: The Wall Street Journal had an article about a Society of Lindas. They have annual conventions where women named Linda meet and celebrate Lindahood.

    Some of them remember going to school in the 1950s and 60s and being one of several Lindas in their classes, but now they’re having a hard time finding young Lindas to replenish their Society’s ranks.

    ‘Betty’ is the name whose absence I’ve noticed for some time. Its graph at Matt’s link looks like the graph for ‘Linda,’ only shifted 10 years to the left, IOW ten years further into the past. Used to be any Betty I encountered was at least 10 years older than me; now that I’m 70, I just don’t run into any of them anymore. (Who’s Veronica going to hang out with now? ;-)

  145. 145.

    Another Scott

    Speaking of pretending…

    (((Tendar)))
    @Tendar
    3h

    You know, some decoys are hard to recognize but others are way too obvious that you better hide from your superiors that you just wasted a $3 million missile on plywood. This was the latter case.

    No secondary explosions of missiles, not even secondary burns, tubes look pretty empty, atrocious “camouflage”, the plywood does not even have noticeable burn marks. The only thing missing was the sign: “please, hit me”. And that’s what the Russian Iskander-M missile did.

    Source: @WarVehicle
    May 10, 2024 · 4:07 PM UTC

    (19 second video)

    And they missed!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  146. 146.

    Martin

    @cmorenc: Doesn’t matter. From 2016-2020 Trump picked up 12 million voters. He only lost because Biden picked up more. Nobody needed to switch votes. If he can hold his 2020 voters and Biden can’t, Trump wins.

    Y’all focus WAY too much on converting voters.

  148. 148.

    Eyeroller

    @MartinI don’t know who “y’all” is since I think most of us believe that converting voters is a lost cause. Working on turnout is the key.

  150. 150.

    JWR

    NBC TV News just covered the racist Virginia school board meeting Here’s hoping they’re all booted out of office soon. They’ve also been covering the latest ad for Apple’s new ipad, which is crushingly… odd. From the AP

    Experts added that the commercial marked a notable difference to marketing seen from Apple in the past — which has often taken more positive or uplifting approaches.

    “My initial thought was that Apple has become exactly what it never wanted to be,” Vann Graves, executive director of the Virginia Commonwealth University’s Brandcenter, said.

  151. 151.

    Jeffro

    actual caption from Biden/Harris HQ, accompanying a video of trumpov’s rant outside the courtroom:

     

    A feeble and desperate Trump flips through his handler-printed Fox News articles to give himself emotional support

    WOW

  152. 152.

    ...now I try to be amused

    @JWR:

    “My initial thought was that Apple has become exactly what it never wanted to be,”

    In the iPad ad Apple literally crushes everything beautiful and fun, like the totalitarian regime in its 1984 Macintosh ad.

    WTF were they thinking?

  153. 153.

    rikyrah

    @Martin:

    @cmorenc: Doesn’t matter. From 2016-2020 Trump picked up 12 million voters. He only lost because Biden picked up more. Nobody needed to switch votes. If he can hold his 2020 voters and Biden can’t, Trump wins.

    Y’all focus WAY too much on converting voter

     

    4 million people turn 18 in this country every year.

    so that means, there will be 16 million people who can vote in 2024 that couldn’t vote in 2020.

    Yes, we need to convert those folks to Democratic voters.

  154. 154.

    Baud

    @JWR:

    There’s a popular hydraulic press channel where some Scottish dude, I think, crushes various objects in his press.  I wonder if Apple thought it could play off that theme.

  155. 155.

    Martin

    @JWR: Seeing a lot of takes that Apple makes one ad (which they immediately apologize for getting wrong) meaning the company has lost their way.

    I had a philosophy at work – everyone fucks up, what matters is that you own it and learn from it. If those things don’t happen, then you have lost your way.

  156. 156.

    jonas

    @Martin: If he can hold his 2020 voters and Biden can’t, Trump wins.

    I wonder if the fact that roughly 15-20% of the Republican base is still checking the box for Nicki Halley in the primaries these days is a sign that that’s not going too well. Of course a lot of those people will probably say they hate Biden more than they do Trump and hold their nose and vote for SFB come November anyway. But I bet a lot just stay home.

  158. 158.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @jonas:

    But I bet a lot just stay home.

    That is my hope for my fundie in-laws. But I’m not holding my breath. They’re all in on the precious fetuses, which I suspect will override their distaste for TFG’s moral…coarseness.

  159. 159.

    hueyplong

    @jonas: I’d hesitate to get excited about Haley numbers in open primaries.  I voted for her myself in NC, and you can rest assured that I am not deserting Biden over the price of eggs at student protests.

  160. 160.

    Melancholy Jaques

    @rikyrah:

    so that means, there will be 16 million people who can vote in 2024 that couldn’t vote in 2020.

    Yes, we need to convert those folks to Democratic voters.

    The challenge will be to get them register, then vote. That demographic is not dense with voters.

  162. 162.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Melancholy Jaques:

    That demographic is not dense with voters.

    Historically true. However, this demographic is uniquely affected by Dobbs and other retrograde rulings. They also grew up with active shooter drills in school, which are far more terrifying than the fire drills and even bomb threats that my generation experienced.

    As an elections worker, I saw remarkable student turnout (on a fairly apolitical campus) in 2022. We may see–and should work for–more of the same this year.

  163. 163.

    wjca

    @Baud: There’s a popular hydraulic press channel where some Scottish dude, I think, crushes various objects in his press.

    I think you’ll find he’s Finnish.

  166. 166.

    TBone

    @Martin: 🙄 puhleeze

    Stormy will do as she damn well wants, she is not gagged because she is not the defendant, no matter how hard people want her to be.  She’s done nothing illegal and she has put up with enough shit already.  She’s not texting the jurors and every twist of the knife makes me laugh. She doesn’t have her own social media platform either.

    We will not obey in advance. Ever.

    Oh, and Rump did specifically ask for a gag order EXCEPTION so he could trash her again. Womp, womp – the answer was NO.

  167. 167.

    JWR

    @Martin:

    I had a philosophy at work – everyone fucks up, what matters is that you own it and learn from it. If those things don’t happen, then you have lost your way.

    Hear, hear and amen to that!

  168. 168.

    Martin

    @rikyrah: That’s not converting voters. They didn’t come out of the womb Trump voters and we need to make them Biden ones. Trumps entire campaign strategy is getting shaky 2020 voters to show up for 2024, and convincing shaky 2020 Biden voters to stay home. Every time a witness beats up on Trump and he is legally unable to respond (even if his lawyers invited that power imbalance), that locks down some shaky 2020 Trump voters. The statement I replied to:

    But they were never really open to voting for anyone else anyways.

    was not something I proposed – that came entirely from OPs mind, as if these were gettable by Biden, as if that’s relevant to winning in 2024. It’s not. It’s not a sound Democratic strategy to let Trump lock in his 2020 electorate, and waving it away as though it is because it gives you the ‘Stormy Daniels DESTROYS Trump’ clickbait feels is a terrible take.

    Yes, you need to get new voters on your side, but that’s not germane to any of these arguments. Trump isn’t going to convince new voters to vote for him because Stormy Daniels said something mean, and it’s not going to convince them to vote for Biden either.

    Stormy Daniels beating up on Trump on Twitter doesn’t help Democrats, it helps Trump. Stop cheering it on. That was my point. And arguing the voters it does secure a vote from in November weren’t going to vote for Biden anyway is to completely miss the point of how elections in the US function. A vote not cast is worth exactly ½ of a vote flipped, and is WAY fucking cheaper to get.

    And your point on young voters is why I’m critical of Democrats for overlooking those voters – getting them before they commit to a party is WAY cheaper than flipping someone.

  171. 171.

    Martin

    @TBone: Stormy is not gagged, because Trump didn’t ask for witnesses to be gagged. I’m 99% sure the judge would have subjected them to comparable gag orders to Trump, had they asked – at least for Daniels and Cohen who are have invested a fair bit of energy in being active on social media around their story here.

    Of course she will do as she pleases. And Trump benefits from that in this situation. That’s all. Don’t invite things that help Trump is my message. Don’t amplify it. Don’t incentivize it.

  172. 172.

    TBone

    @hueyplong: 👍 nobody, NOT EVEN HIS OWN FAMILY, is showing up for him (except for one day with Ewic).  Melanie MIA. Ivanka MIA.  Supporters outside:  MIA.  The only idiots showing up are running for Veep.

  173. 173.

    Eyeroller

    @Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: ​It could, and also reports of him sleeping and farting in court could turn off moderates and convert some of that 38% lowtechcyclist mentioned a while back, who according some polls “aren’t sure” whether Trump or Biden is more mentally and physically fit, to at worst decide they’re the same. That’s a useful “conversion.”

    Martin is assuming that there is a latent sympathy vote for Trump among people who would otherwise have been less enthusiastic this year, and he may well be right, but we don’t really know that.

  174. 174.

    TBone

    @Martin: you think that fucking guy gets to grant permission for witnesses to speak?  HA! Because he didn’t ask the Court to protect him from the scary witnesses?  What are you smoking?  He is powerless, you know, like any other criminal defendant!  For once in his fucked up life!  He doesn’t get to decide who gets to speak about anything, only the Judge running the trial does.

    This trial is not a political campaign!!!!!!!!!

  177. 177.

    Martin

    @Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: I think there’s enough evidence that Trump is steadily winning back his never-Trumpers not because they support his policies or him in isolation, but because Trump is really good at activating their feelings of ‘they’re out to get us – see – they can say whatever they want about me and I’ve been censored’. Nevermind that he engineered this dynamic.

    Listen to the people who previously spoke out against Trump and why they say they will vote for him now.

    Plus it’s not a great look for Democrats because Democrats don’t support situations when someone cannot even in good faith respond to a claim, and yet, here are Democrats chortling over that dynamic – see how hypocritical they are. We can insert various qualifiers that Trump never acts in good faith or that this is at best a minor and very temporary power imbalance, but it’s still not a great look. I don’t think it’s a radical idea that if a defendant has a gag order against public statements against witnesses, that it shouldn’t work both ways. Not that the defendants can’t publicly speak in their own defense, just that they can’t attack the defendant who they know can’t say anything back. That’s all.

  178. 178.

    Dan B

    @Martin: My impression is that Stormy made SFB look less manly which should dampen some MAGATS who think we need a Strong Father / Macho Brute to get the US back on track = get rid of liberal sissies.

  179. 179.

    Redshift

    @Martin:

    Every time a witness beats up on Trump and he is legally unable to respond (even if his lawyers invited that power imbalance), that locks down some shaky 2020 Trump voters.

    It’s possible, but I don’t think it’s reasonable to just state it as fact. He constantly lies about what the gag order prevents him from doing (claiming it prevents him from testifying) and constantly whines about other people being allowed to say bad things about him in any context. In an atmosphere of complete reality-denial, I’m not at all convinced the specific things that are actually true have much to do with how motivated his lower-propensity voters are.

    I do think it would probably be better for the prosecution if Daniels and especially Michael Cohen were talking less about the case, and the prosecution (from what I’ve read) could actually ask for a gag order against their own witnesses (though it would be unusual), but presumably they think the optics of that would be even worse for their case.

  180. 180.

    Redshift

    @Martin:

    I think there’s enough evidence that Trump is steadily winning back his never-Trumpers

    You’re certainly entitled to that opinion, but I haven’t seen anything that would qualify as evidence. Do you have anything specific to point to? (Being sincere here, not just argumentative — there could well be things I’ve missed.)

  181. 181.

    japa21

    @Martin: ​
      What evidence are you referring to? In virtually all the polls (yeah I know…polls) he has been within a 2 point spread for several months. He isn’t gaining any support. Meanwhile, Biden’s numbers have been going up, particularly among likely voters.

  182. 182.

    Splitting Image

    @Martin:

    Stormy Daniels beating up on Drumpf on Twitter doesn’t help Democrats, it helps Drumpf. Stop cheering it on. That was my point. And arguing the voters it does secure a vote from in November weren’t going to vote for Biden anyway is to completely miss the point of how elections in the US function. A vote not cast is worth exactly ½ of a vote flipped, and is WAY fucking cheaper to get.

    You might get proven right in November, but for now I’m going to disagree. Daniels’ testimony is going to be very familiar to many, many women out there, young and old, and the cross-examination of her is going to hit home as well. The encounter itself was a textbook date rape, and the cross-examination was a textbook DARVO.

    Aside from maybe Black Lives Matter, getting women who have been sexually assaulted to speak up and confront their accusers is just about the most important political issue for young people the last decade or so. It still is, even if Gaza is pushing it out of “Trending on Twitter”. Daniels dissing Trump personally and him having to sit there and take it (for once) is a big effing deal.

  183. 183.

    TBone

    This article I posted earlier upthread addresses the very subject of Rump losing, not gaining, support:

    digbysblog.net/2024/05/10/no-one-can-call-trump-gutless/

    If there were any sign that this trial was an asset for Trump — any sign that it put him on stronger ground with the voting public — you would find it in national polling. It’s not there. What we see, instead, is a steady head-to-head between Trump and President Biden. – Jamelle Bouie

  184. 184.

    jonas

    @O. Felix Culpa:As an elections worker, I saw remarkable student turnout (on a fairly apolitical campus) in 2022.

    College students generally turn out in pretty good numbers, relatively speaking. Political engagement is just part of the college experience. Remember, though, only about 1/3 of high school grads go off to college — it’s that other 2/3 of the youth vote that needs to be mobilized and motivated and that has proven challenging.

  185. 185.

    gvg

    @TBone: I would think threats by a witness to a defendant or their family would be intimidation just as it is when Trump makes threats. I bet this has come up millions of times and that there are laws. I can see someone allowing themselves to be found guilty if the threats are frightening enough. I haven’t heard anything to make me think that is what Cohen is doing. I think he is just taunting, possibly because he went to jail because of Trump and resents it.

  186. 186.

    Melancholy Jaques

    @Dan B:

    I do not believe MAGA enthusiasm can be dampened. Their enthusiasm isn’t related to anything in the real world.

  187. 187.

    TBone

    @gvg: as always, the only ones making threats are the orange anus, his minions, and his Fux mouthpieces.

  188. 188.

    smith

    @TBone: The defense did ask today for Cohen to be gagged, but the judge said no. He did request that the prosecution lean on him to keep quiet, though.

  189. 189.

    TBone

    @smith: am aware.  Cohen has not testified yet, so is not free to talk about the trial in advance of his testimony.  Stormy is a horse of a different color.

    “Please speak to your guy” is fair play since judge has only said that over and over to defense counsel till today.

  190. 190.

    Martin

    @TBone:

    you think that fucking guy gets to grant permission for witnesses to speak?  HA! Because he didn’t ask the Court to protect him from the scary witnesses?  What are you smoking?  

    Read my actual words. Trump gets a gag order against attacking witnesses. His lawyers have the right to ask for a similar gag order against witnesses attacking the defendant. That’s not unheard of. But Trump never asked for that, because Trump’s entire campaign is about playing the victim, and having Cohen and Daniels attacking him while the gag order is in effect helps him to do that. It helps his campaign. If they had asked and been turned down, that something else entirely. But they never asked – and it’s reasonable to ask in this case – especially with Cohen.

    And note, you are seeing the judge leaning on the prosecution to get Daniels and Cohen to stop taking about the case – which they were asked to do by the judge – because it’s not beneficial to preserving the public’s faith in the legal system if the public perceives an unfairness. Trump benefits from that unfairness, the judge does not.

    My god people, for all the reams written on this blog about the damage USSC is doing to the perception of rule of law in this country, you’re awful quick to take a situation where if it was anyone but Trump as defendant, you’d question whether this was fair, or worse, that it was damaging to people’s perception of being able to get a fair trial. I get it, it’s Trump.

    He is powerless, you know, like any other criminal defendant!  For once in his fucked up life!

    But you don’t believe criminal defendants should be powerless – certainly liberals don’t.  You only believe that for certain criminal defendants. Liberals have historically stood for defendants having rights, for the trail to be fair and seeming free from bias.

    He doesn’t get to decide who gets to speak about anything, only the Judge running the trial does.

    Note the running criticisms of the judge against Trumps lawyers – that they aren’t objecting (the judge is doing that for them) and then demanding a mistrial, etc. The judge won’t issue the gag order against the witnesses unless one of the parties asks him to – and nobody has asked. The judge is getting annoyed that Trump’s attorneys are deliberately running this case to appear to be a miscarriage of justice, because it favors them to do so.

    All I’m saying is ‘don’t help him’. I’m not trying to silence Daniels. I didn’t say she shouldn’t exercise her liberties. I said we shouldn’t encourage it or amplify it because it helps Trump. If Daniels wants to do something that helps Trump in exchange for likes, that’s her business. Fuck, MTG has been shivving the GOP for the last 2 years for likes and I’m not about to discourage that. All I said was:

    We don’t want the witnesses twisting the knife.

    And you have come out with a full throated defense of why an emotional victory is better than an electoral one.

  191. 191.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @jonas: You are correct that the majority of young people do not attend college, and that GOTV with that group is harder (but not impossible,  based on personal experience with such outreach efforts). That said,  I would not downplay the student turnout witnessed in 2022, despite our team’s need to find the cloud in every silver lining. It was remarkable,  according to longtime elections workers, especially for an off-year. I found it heartening.

  193. 193.

    Geminid

    @Martin: Y’all??! Sheesh.

    It’s a well known fact that conversion strategies are less effective than base motivation strategies, and that’s been said so many times here that people have stopped saying it, just like they no longer point out that “Hispanics are not a monolith.” I think you are confusing analysis and prognostication with positive election strategy.

  194. 194.

    Sure Lurkalot

    @Martin: No crystal ball here, the fact that the fucker could win is horrifying and has me checking out places to escape to.

    But the “every time someone reports he shits his pants, he gets 100 new voters” is a bit much.

  195. 195.

    Martin

    @Splitting Image:

    You might get proven right in November, but for now I’m going to disagree. Daniels’ testimony is going to be very familiar to many, many women out there, young and old, and the cross-examination of her is going to hit home as well. The encounter itself was a textbook date rape, and the cross-examination was a textbook DARVO.

    THAT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH WHAT SHE SAID ON TWITTER. Everything that she said on the stand has been reported and is where you got 100% of your argument from. All of that was above board. My argument was that it doesn’t benefit Democrats to have her leave court, go on Twitter, and make a joke attacking Trump when Trump can’t respond. That’s all. I didn’t even say she shouldn’t say it if the judge allows. All I said was that it helps Trump with his campaign of ‘look at how much of a victim I am’, which, by the way, is his entire campaign.

    How does Daniels trolling Trump about ‘real men testify’ help that argument in any way?

  196. 196.

    TBone

    @Martin: have you ever been an actual criminal defendant in any criminal court?  Most people STFU and listen to what the JUDGE and his or her attorney(s) instruct as a wise course.  Not this fucking guy. He’s special.

    Also note:  Stormy waited until after her testimony to razz him.  Dotard starts with everyone before, during, and after.

  198. 198.

    Baud

    @rikyrah:

    The bill, the More Opportunities for Moms to Succeed Act (MOMS Act), would mandate the creation of a federal website called Pregnancy.gov, which Britt calls a “clearinghouse of relevant resources available for pregnant and postpartum women, and women parenting young children.”

    The website would take users through series of questions, it claims, to generate a list of relevant resources of interest within the user’s zip code. The bill would also allow government officials to reach out to users for additional information

     
    I hate when the acronym is in the acronym.

  199. 199.

    smith

    @rikyrah: Isn’t that what the Defendant was endorsing a week or so back? Do they realize that not only would they have to ban the abortion pill, but also home pregnancy tests for this to be effective to keep the brood stock in line? Or that many women would avoid prenatal care to keep from being monitored? Not that they care  much about the last one.

  200. 200.

    Paul in KY

    @Ruckus: Naw. That’s the drawn out, 2 syllable version of ‘shit’. Like when you just get your new car detailed and a flock of buzzards you didn’t realize were in the big tree you parked under and they got startled and all crapped on your car before flying off. Only a ‘sheeeeit’ will handle that situation.

  201. 201.

    WaterGirl

    @RevRick: There is a match!  Last night I decided to make it a double-angel match, but haven’t announced it yet.  But it will still count as a double-match for you and for the two people who sent me email about their donations.

    So teh first $50 of yours is 6x ($300) + your other $200 that will be matched by the external match ($400) = $700!

    Go you!

  202. 202.

    Melancholy Jaques

    @Martin:

    Of the 12 million, how many were 18-22?

    How did their turnout compare with other age brackets?

  203. 203.

    scav

    @rikyrah: “No National ID!” “Keep the Deep State off My Back!” “Radio-Tag those Wimminz!”

    What was that scariest phrase they always go on and on and on about?  “I’m from the government and I’m here to help?”

     

    Also, what kind of low-rent geographic search returns only a ZIP match?  Some are huge, some are tiny and some really only apply to a set of PO boxes in a rural area.  Hell, I had a PO box that came equipped with its own singular ZIP+4.

  204. 204.

    JWR

    Geez, I hate it when this blurg gets into psychoanalyzing the statistical analysis of individual groups of what undecided voters had for breakfast on the third day of the week before their first bowel movement… oh screw it, just GOTV! ;)

  208. 208.

    prostratedragon

    Tracking some common names from my era that have become rare, I see that Karen was in 15th or better place from about 1946 to 1970, then began falling rapidly, leaving the top 200 with a 47 point drop in 2009. As one might guess, still falling like a rock since. At any given time in my various school cohorts through college, there were always many Karens.

  210. 210.

    WaterGirl

    @Baud: Thanks!  That’s a bad headline – it makes it sound like something good just happened for black people and some white people are whining about it.

    When, in fact, the good thing happened awhile ago, and the white folks are blocking it so the good thing won’t go into effect before November, if at all.

  211. 211.

    Fair Economist

    @Matt McIrvin: The most noticeable change to me is that over the period of the graph, names are becoming more diverse. The most common boy’s name today (Liam) is only 1/10th as common as the most common at the start (William). I approve of this, as I think your first name should ordinarily identify you in a room. It definitely doesn’t for people born in the mid-20th century, but it should usually work in people named since 2000.

  212. 212.

    Another Scott

    Meanwhile, …

    Alayna Treene
    @alaynatreene
    1h

    News: Trump’s son Barron will no longer serve as a delegate at this summer’s Republican National Convention, per a senior Trump campaign adviser & a statement from Melania Trump’s office

    The stmt from Melania Trump’s office said “he regretfully declines due to prior commitments”

    May 10, 2024 · 9:03 PM UTC

    Donnie haz a sad.

    [ womp, womp ]

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  213. 213.

    Geminid

    @WaterGirl: Laura Rozen just posted excerpts from the State Department’s report on Israel’s compliance with international law in its Gaza offensive. She also posted screenshots of all 16 pages. I’m hoping one of Balloon Juice’s hardworking Front Pagers might find time to put this up over the weekend.

    I’m pretty sure Maryland Senator Chris Van Hollen will be talking about the report when he appears on CBS’s Face the Nation.

    Anyone wanting to see this can find it on Twitter at @lrozen and at BluesSky at lkrozen.bsky. There will be plenty of reporting on other sites too.

  214. 214.

    Dan B

    @Martin: I get that Stormy trolling SFB outside the courtroom feeds into his “I’m the victim” story.  Since that’s his story morning noon, and night I’m not sure it makes much difference how many different iterations exist.  His base of “victims” will make up stories but it’s also true we don’t need to make it easier.

  216. 216.

    Dan B

    @Baud: How much money is available to fund childcare for 18 years?  Oh, adoption if you can’t afford the care.  And how many of these kids will be in foster care?  Will there be mental health care funding fir them – generous funding guaranteed forever?

    Seems like Britt wants to be Aunt Lydia but not called that.  Good luck.

  217. 217.

    TBone

    @Dan B: he cries no matter who says what to whom. He’s the easiest victim that ever lived.  Stormy is not performing stochastic terrorism here.  Guess who does that?

  218. 218.

    Dan B

    @TBone: Pundits saying that Trump cries like a stuck pig would be quite accurate.  Whiney baby is also on the mark.

  219. 219.

    TBone

    @Dan B: also: incompetent criminal who left a paper trail of checks, invoices, and ledger entries.  I mean, DUH !  How dumb do you have to be to pay off with a fucking bank check?  Let alone, eleven bank checks 🤣

  220. 220.

    Slightly_peeved

    @Martin:

    Firstly, they did ask for a witness to be gagged.

    Secondly, they did ask for a witness to be gagged. Technically this is the same as the first point, but it is such an important point I figured it was worth mentioning twice.

    Thirdly, the main potential effect of Stormy and Cohen taunting him is to get him to breach his gag order and get his ass locked up. If you think him being in jail is going to be a vote-getter, we’ll have to agree to disagree on that one.

  221. 221.

    Chief Oshkosh

    @Martin:

    How does Daniels trolling Trump about ‘real men testify’ help that argument in any way?

    I’m not sure I understand how it would be possible to know the outcome of this dynamic. I don’t mean this in a passive-aggressive way – I mean, truly, I’m just not seeing it.

    That said, I am pretty sure that if her goading him adds up with other things to send him over the edge and demand to testify and he ends up on the stand, then that would be a very, very good thing.

  223. 223.

    rikyrah

    @WaterGirl:

    gerrymandering cheated the Black voters out of Congressional seats. Went through the Courts, which ultimately said, yes, Black voters were cheated and they need additional Congressional seats drawn to match their population

     

    Now, White folks feelings are hurt 😒, which of course should mean more than the repression of Black voters

  224. 224.

    Gvg

    @jonas: I have never heard that college students turned out in high numbers. Historically they haven’t except during the Vietnam draft era and…recently, as they are again seeing politics as affecting them directly. Students also tended to have a low turnout because it was made harder for them to vote. They have to decide where to vote, back home, with problems of access at the right time, or at college. A lot of college towns don’t want the temporary resident students to swing local elections on their issues. So registering to vote is made harder, just like for any other unpopular group. Unpopular with the political powers, that is.

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