.
What happens when Kasich, Cruz, Rubio and Romney discover that only one of them can be nominated at a contested convention?
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 5, 2016
Cage match https://t.co/aEDwsquTFo
— Daniel Larison (@DanielLarison) March 5, 2016
GOP establishment now working feverishly to enlist Cruz's field operation, funded by Kasich's donors, to mobilize Trump's voters for Rubio.
— Will Saletan (@saletan) March 5, 2016
On our side of the aisle, the Washington Post notices an uncomfortable pattern that I’ve previously seen discussed only on social media…
Here is a party trick. Tell someone that you can predict the result of a Democratic primary in advance, by asking one question. “Ooh,” the people around you will say, and give you money and attention. The question you ask? What percentage of the state is black?
If the state is more than 10 percent black: Easy call. Hillary Clinton wins it. Under 2.5 percent black? You’re probably safe saying that Bernie Sanders will triumph. Anything in between, and you can guess — but this should pretty much have you covered…
Charts & numbers at the link; also the conclusion “There are several big states still to come with large black populations… “
***********
Apart from intra-party bickering, what’s on the agenda for the afternoon?
Corner Stone
Living the dream!
Corner Stone
Any other parents here have kids in Duke TIPS? There seems to be no downside but just wondering if anything positive actually came out of participating.
gwangung
Re: Washington Post: is that really a surprise to anyone who read the leaked plans about Sanders’ strategy?
John D.
Both of my sons went through it, it’s legit.
(Disclaimer: I was a member of the 1981 Duke TIPS creative writing class for 3 weeks in the summer at Duke itself.)
MattF
Don’t forget to multiply the AA percentage by 0.6.
Walker
@Corner Stone:
I was in TIP as a student in the 80s. Now as a faculty member at a university, TIP contacts me regularly about sending students to help with instruction.
It is very legit, and still considered the best of the summer college programs.
schrodinger's cat
@gwangung: What plans? Can you explain? or give us a link. Thanks!
gf120581
@gwangung: He has a strategy? Because if he does, it’s failing miserably.l
Betty Cracker
@Corner Stone: My kiddo was in it. We never ended up sending her to a summer program or anything, though, so nothing came of it.
Technocrat
Yeesh. I love my fellow liberals, but it’s funny how sometimes even they can be so baffled on matters of race.
Liberal whites vote Democratic. Conservative whites vote Republican. Everyone gets that.
Liberal blacks vote Democratic. Conservative blacks vote Democratic. Racism trumps most of the finer points of political ideology.
So, Democratic blacks, in the aggregate, skew more to the right than Democratic whites.
At least that’s what the voices in my head tell me.
Corner Stone
@Betty Cracker: Thanks. Yeah, he’s too young for that right now so the upside is more info (?) and a chance to take a higher level ACT test version, early. Probably nothing bad about just being in the program but didn’t know if it was something that aggro parents did to force their kids into something that did not have any actual upside except style points. He’s one of about six in his school to get the invite but that does not mean anything without the follow through.
Corner Stone
@Walker: He’s currently in 5th so the summer program is a bit away. Thanks for the response and insight though.
Germy
Does the party trick take voter suppression into consideration? Because since 2012, that movement has picked ups steam.
Baud
@Germy: I don’t think voter suppression is an issue in the primaries.
Baud
@Technocrat:
That may be true in social issues, but I’d like to see evidence that it’s true on economic issues.
Iowa Old Lady
@Corner Stone: Good for your kid on being invited. It’s nice to have choices.
gogol's wife
Getting my sequined drop-waist evening dress and diamond head circlet polished up for the last episode of Downton tonight!
superpredators4hillary
Let’s get this party started!
Iowa Old Lady
@gogol’s wife: Is this the end of series or just the season?
Bob In Portland
@Technocrat: We know that Southern Democrats, white and black, skew farther to the right that northern voters. And Clinton’s team certainly has the party allegiance in the south. Michigan will be interesting because it’s north and there’s a considerable black voting bloc in Michigan. I know last week’s polls put her up by 25%, but we’ve seen similar leads melt once voters know what Sanders stands for.
What does it mean? Sanders will need to close with black voters. How fast it happens will determine how much of a chance he has.
Hillary had a big lead in Massachusetts and by election day she limped by with less than two percent. I have no magical formula. I realize the first reaction of Clinton supporters here is to get indignant and denigrate the other. We get it. Sort of like Trump supporters but a few steps to the left. It’s a war of attrition, and so far Clinton’s percentages against the candidates of that other party that is falling apart are worse than Sanders.
gogol's wife
@Iowa Old Lady:
Both.
different-church-lady
Wait, I don’t understand this at all: we’ve been repeatedly told that Sanders does NOT have a problem reaching black voters because (1) he was on a march in the 60s, (b) Killer Mike and (iii) Cornell West.
Clearly the problem must be with black voters who have chosen to live in red states.
FlipYrWhig
@Bob In Portland: Have there been cases of a big _late_ lead by Clinton turning into a narrow one or an outright loss? I feel like most of the “Clinton had a lead, look how far Sanders came” stories are about once-massive leads near the beginning of the process.
Major Major Major Major
Greetings from rehab. Day 9! Expect a new chapter tonight, incidentally.
Corner Stone
@Bob In Portland:
I think if you took out the gun control questions that Southern Democrats across a large swath would be essentially as left/medium left as any other regional democrat.
It’s my understanding that Sanders had a lead in MA and lost it when people actually started voting.
Germy
A documentary about what happened to someone’s dad after years of RW media. The Brainwashing Of My Dad (Official Trailer):
youtube.com/watch?v=813V_GId5N8
NotMax
Open Thread?
Straight into the Why Didn’t I Think Of That? file:
The man who owns black.
Corner Stone
@different-church-lady:
At least some black voters are getting it right.
FlipYrWhig
@different-church-lady: I think what we’ve been told is that Sanders SHOULDN’T have a problem reaching black voters, but nonetheless does, because black people are either stubborn or uninformed.
Corner Stone
@Iowa Old Lady: It’s what I keep telling him.
LesBonnesFemmes
@FlipYrWhig: Indeed.
Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class
I don’t know why everybody is so upset – it’s still the party of Lincoln.
George Lincoln Rockwell.
Davebo
@Corner Stone: A friends son went through it.
Not saying TIPS had anything to do with it but he’s in his twenties now and has a lot of problems.
JMG
As it happened, Clinton won every major city in Mass. and all the communities within and around Route 128 except for Somerville, Boston’s youth ghetto. In short, she won everywhere a Democrat needs to win to win the state in either a primary or a general election.
different-church-lady
@FlipYrWhig: Oh, well yeah, that’s completely different. As long as one is (∆) racially clueless and (V) living deep the the Bernie Bubble.
jl
@NotMax: Interesting link. Another infuriating example of the absurd over-reach of IP law and econ. This artist could buy the ‘right’ to the blackest material known for ‘use in art’.
I think I will trademark ‘predatory corporate assholery’ since it describes more and more of our lives and I think I can make a lot of money off it.
Corner Stone
@Davebo: Gambling problems? Bunch of bad tips on horses that were guaranteed to come in but somehow always seemed to Rubio win?
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@Major Major Major Major: Hang in there MMMM. One day at a time. We’re pulling for you.
Cheers,
Scott.
Davis X. Machina
@FlipYrWhig:
The phenomenon is colorblind. The prevalence of false consciousness correlates closely with this map from 1860. The white people there are also disproportionately unable to see where their own self-interest lies, and vote accordingly.
different-church-lady
@jl: You might be jumping to conclusions. This artist may have purchased a license for a unique product from a private company, rather than making a copyright claim. The “right” may be granted from the company that created the pigment, not from any government agency.
Davebo
@Corner Stone:
Not exactly. His Mom was an over achiever, started undergrad at sixteen then on to a JD. He tried to do the same and I think the pressure got to him. He just wasn’t ready maturity wise.
Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class
@Bob In Portland:
So when does the snow melt in Gorkiy? Are you gonna be excited to see pavement and get the Zil out to the surrounding countryside?
schrodinger's cat
The past few years has seen a renaissance. There are two new movies with female protagonists that I want to see .
Jeete Hai Chal from Neerja is awesome especially the Mritiyunjay mantra from the Yajurveda at the beginning and the end.
Mritiyunjay == Victory over death == Immortality mantra
Short translation: You can achieve immortality if you give your life to others, which is what the real life Neerja Bhanot did. She died on the job 2 days short of her 23rd birthday but is still remembered today.
Jeete hai chal, is about living life to the fullest by taking on life and not running away from it.
Technocrat
@Baud:
It’s a good question, Baud. The voices have so far refused to clarify.
@Bob In Portland:
I’m certainly not denigrating Sanders or his supporters. My point was that blacks are often viewed as if they share some sort racial political ideology, when i don’t think that’s true. Democratic whites are united by ideology (and we see schisms even there). Democratic blacks have additional factors driving them into the coalition.
Voting for Democrats can mean you agree with Democrats, or it can mean you disagree with Republicans.
jl
Nice that GOP establishment is in another tizzy doing anything to stop Drumpf, and looks like that will get them Cruz, who is the only candidate less promising in the general. I hope the GOP effort continue to produce trainwreck.
The GOP is like the old Soviet Union, in that the establishment is so exhausted, they cannot produce serious leadership anymore. I vaguely remember the USSR in its last gasps, electing Politbureau leaders who were so old and infirm that they would pop off a few weeks later.
By now, it should be obvious that Rubio stinks at anything beyond memorizing canned lines and groveling and preening in front money bag funders (Edit: though to be fair, I think he actually got off an ad lib in the last debate). I heard on news that he is spending time in Puerto Rico instead of Florida in some bizarre ethnic bank shot to improve his chances in Florida. My spleen would like Rubio to lose badly in Florida, but he needs to remain a loser with enough weak sauce excuses and desperate GOP establishment backing to stay in and create more confusion. So, my spleen and spite just have to lump it, I guess.
jl
@Baud: I’ve read that there is a big age divide in African-American vote. Youth vote pretty much favors Sanders across race and ethnicity. The oldsters prefer HRC.
And maybe shows that Democrats are less susceptible to affinity fraud?
Brachiator
@Germy:
I would think that voter suppression will be more an issue in the general election.
D58826
The D’s have been having a problem with the white vote, esp the working class, since at least 1968. Not exactly a new thing but still worrisome esp. in a close election or the all important down ballot races. The AA vote in Philly and Pittsburgh may give Hillary all of the electoral votes for Pennsylvania. It may even tip the balance for the US Senate but but it’s not enough to win the majority of the US House seats or the Pa. legislature, The result is paralysis in Washington and Harrisburg.
Walker
@Davebo:
I see this pattern at my university a lot (and mental health/maturity is largely what we are looking at in application essays).
But the nice thing about TIP is that it really is low pressure. The 11th grade summer programs that you might do at Harvard or Stanford will appear on a college application and so you feel like you have to do well at them. But no one looks at summer programs from 8th or 9th grade. So you can do whatever you want there. Maybe get credit for it. Maybe not. Your choice.
joel hanes
@Bob In Portland:
Sanders will need to close with black voters
Hope is not a plan.
Sec. Clinton will be the nominee, precisely because of the voter alignment described in the original posting.
This has been an inescapable conclusion since Tuesday.
It will be interesting to see if the most ardent Sanders supporters (and give the man credit: he inspires political passion in many white voters) — to see if the his most ardent supporters can work their way through denial, anger, bargaining, and depression in time to help prevent a national disaster branded Trump.
Corner Stone
@Walker:
Yes, the literature for the program really tries to emphasize this aspect. But since the counselor I talked to when my son went from 4th to a new campus for 5th was talking about course paths to get into top 10 schools I’m a little leary of some of this kind of thing.
She literally said something along the lines of, “Well, he can still probably get into *a* college but not one of the top 10.” When I asked her about different paths. For a freakin’ fifth grader.
Corner Stone
@joel hanes: Once Sanders lost Massholes, this one was over.
joel hanes
@jl:
a big age divide in African-American vote
IMHO, the gender divide will be more consequential.
For black Americans, esp. those in the South, take a look at the gender breakdown of actual voters.
Then look at the way that black female voters skew for Clinton over Sanders.
Now remember that young people exhibit poor turnout numbers, while middle-aged and older people vote in higher numbers, and more reliably.
schrodinger's cat
@Corner Stone: What can you do, some Sanders supporters live in La La land, there is no convincing them.
Brachiator
@jl:
A little more nuanced. From a pretty good NBC news story:
Wall Street and free college are not big issues here.
Villago Delenda Est
@MattF: Very subtle. But Constitutional!
Marc
Block voting in minority communities (in the general sense of the word – meaning ones with a small fraction of the overall votes) is actually very common across many nations and in many systems. It’s a good way of maximizing your influence if you have sufficient common ground.
The Democratic party is a coalition, and it requires all of its elements to be successful. If we demotivate AAs, or Latinos, or young whites – we have a problem. Sanders would need to be able to motivate the groups where he is not doing as well, as would Clinton. I think that this will occur in either case, no matter how much their strongest online partisans want to believe otherwise.
I’ll take our problems over those of the Republicans any day.
? Martin
@Corner Stone:
I can’t speak directly to Duke’s program (I don’t doubt that it’s quite good) but these programs are all relatively expensive. $4K for a 3 week program is a decent chunk of money, and be aware that the program does very little to influence how students are admitted.
If you are looking at it as a pure enrichment program, then you can weigh the cost and decide it if’s a good value or not. If you think it will tip the scales on a college admission – it won’t, so don’t factor that into your value proposition.
I’m involved in similar programs where I work and my son has worked directly for these kinds of programs. The kids like the programs, they’re fun, and are generally very well thought out – provided the university is actually running the program and not a 3rd party. The ones that will expose kids to new stuff are a bit better than the others. Math academies are okay, but mostly just serve to put kids on a path that they’ll get to anyway. Programs like engineering, nursing, arts can expose kids to subjects that they might not get in school and that can be particularly good.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@Davebo: That’s sad to read. It’s always hard (in my experience) to get people to look at the social costs for high achieving youth who move rapidly through the educational system. Not all of them have the maturity or can manage with the reduced peer socialization. I hope things improve for him.
@Corner Stone: Holy cow. I guess running screaming from the campus with kiddo in tow wasn’t a realistic option. I mean fuck, the kid’s gotta have time to develop some court sense, and have fun.
jl
@D58826: @joel hanes: If Sanders is a person of his word, and smarter than a bag of rocks, he will be yelling at his supporters to vote and actively stumping for the Democrats.
Going back to finish the last two years of his term as a (after the primary) high profile Senator in a Democratic Senate with a national following who can grand stand over his political revolution schtick under HRC should be a very good incentive. He has been saying in his stumpers that his political revolution is as important as his nomination. So if he does not actively support HRC after her nomination he will reveal himself to be both a liar and a fool.
Anyway, we have to hope he does actively work for the Democrats in the general and yells at his supporters to vote.
Villago Delenda Est
@FlipYrWhig: It’s all just narrative reinforcement by the vermin of the Village. If it has anything to do with reality is beside the point. They can’t let go of the “Democrats in disarray!” narrative and will attempt to shoehorn it in at any cost.
Iowa Old Lady
@Corner Stone: This is insane. I speak both as a college prof and the mother of a kid who went to a K-12 school for gifted children. For my kid, the primary benefits of that school are that he was never the smartest kid in the room and he was challenged academically while staying with his age mates socially. For college, he went off to the University of Michigan which was 50 miles down the road and was fine. Some of his classmates agonized over the Ivies, both in terms of admission and after they got there. I can’t begin to tell you how crazy and unnecessary I think that is.
jl
@Villago Delenda Est: The Democratic primary script is pretty much set, and, regardless of what their hacks and fanatical partisans do, HRC and Sanders are keeping it civil and talking about the issues. So, when will the Village want to discuss the issues? Never. So, they will ignore the Democratic race except for the horse race and their own manufactured BS.
Elie
@jl:
Are you sure about youthful black folks backing Bernie? Got any data on that?
? Martin
@Brachiator:
As Chris Rock would say, “When your kid is being gunned down by the cops, it’s hard to get excited about free college for him/her.”
Walker
@Corner Stone:
I am at a top 10-ish (I think 12th actually, but many departments in top 5) and read admissions as a faculty reader. This is garbage. We never look past 9th grade.
Redshift
@Baud:
Not so, unfortunately. While no one is doing active voter suppression, state voter ID laws are still having an effect on primaries. I don’t know if it’s skewing the results to one candidate or the other (since minorities and young people are the most affected, it may be a wash), but it’s there.
Mike J
@jl:
Look at how much money he’s raised for downticket races.
Gimlet
@Mike J:
pivotamerica.com/2016/03/03/theres-a-movement-within-the-sanders-movement-to-go-green-after-primarie…
Not sure how much of a thing this is
As a protest thousands and thousands of Bernie Sanders supporters are making plans and preparations to say goodbye to the Democratic National Committee. Many have realized that as those who control the party move more and more right away from those who actually vote that it may be time for a revolt within the party itself.
jl
@Elie: Just news reports I heard on exit polls.
Iowa Old Lady
@Gimlet: I have said before that to me, these people are the anti-vaxxers of the political world. They refuse to sully their own purity, but they rely on the rest of us to provide herd immunity against President Trump or Cruz. Apparently, W’s disastrous reign did not teach them that herd immunity can fail.
Marc
@Mike J: Um – why is he responsible for this as an insurgent primary candidate? How common is it for a Senator to raise money for other candidates nationwide? This has zero to do with whatever he’d plan to do. The party officials wouldn’t support him anyhow; tough to compete with the spouse of a former president in those sweepstakes.
Corner Stone
@Walker: She was talking about G&T vs G&T + AP course tracks. This ISD killed IB tracks a few years ago.
Apparently it takes years to transition into AP courses if you do not initially start them in middle school.
I find the whole thing fucking ridiculous and detrimental to the health and well being of younger students. My son likes developing strategies to eliminate players in four square and four square slam, in addition to being admin for several online gaming boards, etc. It’s a bit of a stretch to think he should be considering what Princeton *shutters* is looking at for this stage of his progress.
jl
@Mike J: I don’t see how an old coot who is trying to run a competitive campaign on only small contributions against one of the most powerful political organizations in the country is in a position to start financing down ticket races while running a long shot underdog campaign.
I am not interest in the silly BS sniping between HRC and Sanders fanatics. If you can provide an argument why our comment is not BS sniping, I’ll listen.
Let’s see what Sanders does in the general.
Gimlet
@Iowa Old Lady:
Many if not most are college-age or early-mid twenties and recall Dubya as ancient distorted history along with what they see of recent history.
gwangung
@Gimlet: I wonder why this never gets expressed as taking over the party themselves.
Walker
@? Martin:
In my case, TIP was great because I grew up in a rural town where my father was one of the small town doctors. The schools simply were not that good, and TIP was a way to challenge myself.
This is why I am also a softie when I read college applications from rural applicants.
jl
@Marc: Because there are Sanders and HRC fanatics on this blog who have completely lost their heads and really cannot do anything anymore other than try to kick the other side in the shins (rhetorically speaking).
If Mike J has a good response, I’ll consider it.
Corner Stone
@Marc:
This seems odd to me. Why would the putative head of the D party, even as an insurgent, not be expected to recruit and one day persuade other D’s to go along with at least some parts of an agenda?
It has everything to “whatever he’d plan to do”. Isn’t this obvious?
gwangung
@jl: Excuse me???!!!
There’s every reason in the world for Sanders to raise money down ticket. As in, these are the folks who are going to vote your program into laws. As in making this a real movement that will affect every level of government.
I don’t see where’s there’s any question why Sanders should be supporting down ticket candidates.
Frankensteinbeck
@Gimlet:
Based partly on my prejudices, and partly on my observations of the Obama Threw The Base Under The Bus period, I think this is insignificant.
? Martin
@Walker:
And I oversee admissions selection in a top 15 public and agree. Nothing prior to grade 9 will matter. The only way that enrichment pre-grade 9 would matter is if it provides the student with a structural benefit – access to a course track that would extend past grade 9, etc.
That said, for many STEM disciplines, arts, and a number of other fields, students will begin to exclude themselves from the discipline starting in late elementary school. Girls in particular start to remove engineering as a discipline in late elementary. Same for many of the hard sciences and computer science. All kids will stop considering the arts as soon as arts education ends – so keeping them in that during summer can be critical. Boys in the US generally won’t consider nursing as a field without exposure during K-12. That kind of thing.
Some programs can give students access to research or internship opportunities in high school by building relationships early – but programs like TIPS don’t normally do that. Full disclosure – TIPS is a revenue generating program for the university by using facilities and staff that are underutilized in summer. There’s a strong educational component to it, so it’s not without value, but they are not designed to be incubators for top-admits. Don’t mistake them for such opportunities. And it annoys me that universities are willing to blur that distinction in order to boost demand.
Our programs are cheaper and are priced to be competitive with other kinds of summer programs. Basically, we market them as fun and educational summer camp to get the kids away from mom and dad for a few weeks, not as an incubator for college.
magurakurin
@Gimlet: The odds that that site is funded by a Republican pac are probably pretty good. Judging only by the look and feel of that site, this is not a thing worth worrying about. If Sanders starts telling people to go Green, then I’ll worry.
Walker
@Corner Stone:
We do care that you take a demanding curriculum, and we do look at AP courses. Ironically, we gauge them relative to the school in which the student is in. So a student at a rural school who takes 5/5 APs over 4 years has a better shot than a student from a high-powered suburban school that takes 8/20 APs.
The main thing is that the school has a set of courses which is called the “most demanding curriculum” and ALL of the junior and senior courses (not even 9th and 10th) must fit in this category. So if there is some tracking that would make it difficult for the last two years to have these kinds of courses, that could be a problem.
We are a bit biased against IB. The majority of US schools do not implement the curriculum properly, and so it is not seen as demanding. But I have pushed to take IB students who are exceptional.
This is at an Ivy by the way, though we often get mocked as the safety-school Ivy (that should give a hint).
? Martin
@Corner Stone:
But I question whether or not there’s an effective strategy there. The problem isn’t whether we should be electing downticket supporters for Sanders’ policies, but whether there are downticket candidates *in the race right now* that are positioned to support his policies. It’s a problem of a mismatch – candidates entered the race with a relatively well-known Democratic platform, and Sanders is fairly removed from that in a number of respects. In 2018 a President Sanders could be fairly effective, but I don’t think in 2016 that would work.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@Walker: Well shit. You’d have missed my Presidential Award for Environmental Excellence from 8th grade. It’s a collector’s item, given the signature.
Walker
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q):
That stuff goes in the essay. We actually love to read about that kind of thing, as opposed to a canned essay.
Gimlet
@magurakurin:
Based on the enthusiasm with which the content of Bernie’s message is being received, I do not think his supporters will turn to a centrist Democratic Party in the Fall.
Mike J
@Marc:
Very. Very very. Pretty much every Democrat in the Senate kicks into the DSCC.
Baud
@Gimlet: If so, then we’ll have to move to the right to try to make up those votes. Probably won’t work, but losing is not an option.
Gimlet
@Baud:
Someone should be putting together a contingency plan with numbers and a definite plan of action. Just hope and faith that it will work out seems likely to fail.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@Walker: It was entirely an artifact of attending the kind of private school I did. My project partner and I did succeed in having the first state legislation introduced to ban pull tab cans, but the award was because our teacher submitted to project to some White House/EPA program. Before the city where I worked had recycling containers in office buildings, I scolded most of my colleagues to bring empty drink cans to my office, where they were stacked on top of a filing cabinet. My office was thereafter dubbed “the Greenpeace Annex.” So the enthusiasm lasted.
Brachiator
@? Martin: RE: Wall Street and free college are not big issues here.
Actually, it’s more that K-12 education is a bigger issue.
I had a conversation with a co-worker who is not a big Sanders supporter, but who likes the idea of free college. I mentioned that I would bet that free college slots would be monopolized by the rich and upper middle class, and that many black and Latino students would miss opportunities because they had been stuck in crappy elementary schools and high schools.
He insisted that the rich would still want to go to elite schools. He relented a bit when we read that USC just became the most expensive school in the US, with annual tuition and fees slightly more than $52,000.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@jl:
If he doesn’t, then it will explain his entire political career of independent gadfly scolding and sniping rather than organizing and leading. He just caught a populist wave, but he’s way too old to organize all this himself because the party’s been too Establishment, man, and his supporters are way too white to be a revolutionary anything.
? Martin
@Corner Stone: @Walker: I’ll confirm what Walker says here. I’m at a so-called public Ivy (whatever the fuck that means) and our approach is very similar.
We refer to it as ‘strength in local context’. Students with access to a broad range of academic opportunities (AP, etc.) are expected to take advantage of them. Students that don’t have access to them, aren’t punished for that.
We’re less biased against IB. I agree that it’s often not well implemented, but it provides better baseline assessment of students than non-AP courses (and certainly SAT), so it’s still a benefit.
And I’ll confirm the issue of sequencing which varies considerably from school to school. The HS my kids attend is quite good at giving students opportunities to jump from track to track (I helped design it, so I may be biased) and its designed around an approach at another HS in the same district where kids were locked into AP/non-AP tracks coming out of middle school which had a seriously distortive effect on how students got admitted – they got a bit more students into Ivys but a LOT fewer students into strong publics. I argued that was a bad trade-off, that the something extra that students need to be competitive for an Ivy ought not be a structural component of the high school but something that the students own motivation makes happen. After all, that’s what the Ivys are actually looking for – students that didn’t get there by virtue of some cookie-cutter program, but who got there by their own force of will, something that they expect will carry throughout their college career.
magurakurin
@Gimlet: that will be their choice then. And it will be a poor one. Especially for the younger ones. They have more to lose, and lose they will under a GOP controlled government. If they choose to vote Green, so be it. Personally, I think the people who will vote Green, never would have voted for a Democrat other than Sanders anyway. It is just the same Green vote that occurs every cycle. I also think Sanders will campaign for Clinton, should he lose (and he will lose.) The sensible among his supporters will vote for Clinton. The others are a lost cause anyway. Always were.
Walker
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q):
Yeah, that is a perfect thing for an college application essay.
different-church-lady
@Brachiator:
White people worry about their money. Black people worry about their lives.
/over-simplification
Ruckus
@gwangung:
Even if Sanders doesn’t financially support local races he should be at least supporting candidates for the reasons that you state. That he isn’t or is doing very little is to me a telling thing.
It’s not just a movement, it takes a political party to get there.
Revolution may be great when that’s all you have, but it’s costly in many, many ways and may not end up at the place that was desired when it started. How many revolutions in history have?
ETA Edited for clarity.
Walker
@? Martin:
Exactly. And high schools that allow this kind of flexibility are what our admissions staff consider to be the “best” high schools.
different-church-lady
@jl:
Then I have no doubt it will happen.
Whether they listen is another story. I suspect a very vocal percentage will accuse Sanders himself of selling out the revolution.
? Martin
@Brachiator:
Yeah, K-12 is more important to this demographic overall. Not everywhere – african americans here in CA are not often in poor schools, but african-americans in Mississippi usually are.
But your analysis on how free college would play out is largely correct. If public universities could handle the full demand of free college, then it would probably work out okay, but we don’t have that capacity in this country. That means we’ll be selective, and that means no matter how hard we try, inevitably we’re going to favor middle and upper income kids. The only way around that is to admit students at random, which is actually a good idea, but would never, ever sell with the public.
Gimlet
@magurakurin:
If the numbers that will sit home or go Green are insignificant, there is no need to do anything special to ensure victory this Fall for Hillary.
However, there is no number as yet to put on this group or to figure how it will grow or shrink as the Fall approaches.
Ready
Yesterday’s primaries showed he anti-Trump movement is working. Cruz steals two, and nearly sweeps the other two!
What we need is for Cruz to back Rubio and instead of he party getting Trumped, Trump gets dumped!
The Hedge Fund Boys are #winning…
different-church-lady
@Gimlet: Is there any evidence at all those people were ever going to be democrats in the first place?
Bob In Portland
@joel hanes: @Technocrat: A thought came to me. I wonder if the “socialist” shibboleth still works in the South. Last fall when I was visiting her in FLA Sanders name came up and she got a severe, half-afraid look and asked, “Isn’t he, you know, you know what?”
“Socialist?” “Yes, that.”
Luther M. Siler
@Elie: Look at the exit polling on basically any state Hillary won, since I’m pretty sure this is a universal trend: she will win all age groups of African-Americans except (maybe) the youngest, and the youngest will still swing to her far more than white members of the same age group. If Sanders wins the youngest slice of AAs, it’ll be by a nose.
Gimlet
@different-church-lady:
Again, I would remind you of the Scott Brown – Martha Coakley contest in reliably Democratic Massachusetts. What happened to that Democratic majority everyone knew was there?
Gvg
Our democracy is designed to need a majority of 2 houses of congress and the president to get things done. It is not supposed to only follow a President leader. This arrangement is safer and wiser than magical leaders like kings or dictators but a lot of people never really understand in their guts. If Sanders doesn’t get that then he will not actually get anything done even if he gets elected. He has said things to support it but has not done that much to actually follow through. I have read that he did do some fundraising annually in one article but a lot more say nothing. It may be true or not as reporting has been generally incompetent for years. I do think he hasn’t done enough and the fact he didn’t actually join the party till recently makes me think he didn’t it earlier and it should have been obvious sooner.
His supporters probably don’t get that which is separate from him. Many of them are young, and may wise up later but humans have a tendency to admire the leader over democracy and compromise.
A president who holds safe views can veto any really bad ideas so they are a safety net if we are lucky. I first realized this with Bill Clinton because he vetoed some laws that would have been bad for women even though he himself was a horn dog. Also realized the difference between personal morals and …..call it policy morals. We have to elect by the policy not the personal. Hard to accept when I was young but normal to me now.
I would personally have a difficult time doing politics. Schmoozing bores me, I don’t like compromises that have bad sides etc. Sanders reminds me of myself…which does not make me think he would be a good choice for the job.
PurpleGirl
What does TIP mean?
Maybe there are others who do not know what it refers to.
Redshift
@different-church-lady:
Very vocal, but not very large. Remember that when it happens, because it can be hard to tell the difference online.
Walker
@Corner Stone:
Actually, one more thing
This is exactly what we look for. We want a student has a serious passion like this and he or she has coursework that complements it. The days of large numbers of extra-curriculars are over. We want activities that have all four years on the common app, because it shows that the student is serious about it. Being an admin on a gaming board is legitimate, as long as the student can loop it back into academics.
different-church-lady
@Gimlet: What happened was Martha Fuckin’ Coakely is what happened.
And it applies not a whit to the idea that anyone threatening to go Green if Bernie isn’t the dem nom was probably wasn’t going to vote dem in the first place. The only reason they were ever considering voting dem at all was because that’s the nom Bernie is running for.
Corner Stone
@Bob In Portland:
Yep. My ex-FIL has also stated flatly that Sanders is a sockulist. Guess what? He had a non-positive chance of ever voting for a Democratic candidate. For anything. Ever.
Corner Stone
@PurpleGirl: Talent Identification Program
In this case. Other cases it may refer to a horse running at Bellevue in the thoid.
Technocrat
@Bob In Portland:
I wouldn’t think “socialist” is a big problem among Democrats. From this recent polling:
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Gimlet:
I live here and I’ll tell you what happened because Scott Brown was my State Senator. He’s a very good campaigner with a lovely high profile family, who beat a terrible campaigner in a special election in the middle of a frigid January, shortly after the 3rd consecutive Democratic Speaker of the House was indicted for corruption. Massachusetts doesn’t have a big teabagger contingent, so Brown isn’t a scary Republican, and he drove a truck and wore a barn coat. Elizabeth Warren’s campaign exposed that he was just another mean dumbass who kisses up and kicks down, and he lost big. So, we went from Ted Kennedy to Scott Brown to Elizabeth Warren in the space of 3 years.
Redshift
@gwangung: I be interested to know how much fundraising primary contenders have done for down-ticket candidates in the past. I don’t really have much of a sense of it. As the nominee, absolutely. It’s easy to fault Sanders for not doing it, but unless there’s solid evidence it’s been commonly done in the past, that’s just carping, not legitimate criticism, no matter what “logic” you invoke for why it makes sense.
Betty Cracker
Will Spoofy McTrollpants show up extolling the virtues of Cruz when Rubio loses Florida? Or will he finally jump on the Trump train?
different-church-lady
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: Brown got out there and told people why they should vote for him. Coakley did not. (Sub-item of your terrible campaigner point.)
Gimlet
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
The Obama administration interpreted the loss as the voters angry with his administration for its liberal health care plan and not being conservative enough in its policies.
Corner Stone
@Redshift: There’s an easy comparison going on right now. Before the nominee is chosen. It’s public record.
Corner Stone
@PurpleGirl: I also had added an ETA with more info on my specific case but FYWP ate it and after reflection it seemed a bit humblebraggish. So if it shows up, fine. If not, not going to retype.
D58826
@Corner Stone: Bernie is an independent socialist who votes with the democrats. I don’t think he has changed his party affiliation to democrat. What loyalty does he have for the national party or any of the down ballot candidates. and weill the party walk the plank for Bernie’s revolution.?
@Gimlet:
Before these folks blow up the DNC I sure hope they have something to replace it with.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@Walker: I’m quite proud that it was signed by Richard M. Nixon. And when I went to grad school, the application literally had boxes to check to apply for a scholarship:
I want to be considered on the basis of need.
I want to be considered on the basis of merit.
I want to be considered on the basis of need and merit.
Those were quite easier times. But it’s good to know that I had something cool for a college essay!
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@different-church-lady:
Being in his senatorial district (Barney Frank was my Congressman for years), Scott would call when he was campaigning. He’s very charming, and relates to people. I went to a rally for Coakley in my district with all of the party Dems the night before the election, and she barely looked at the crowd, and didn’t reach out to shake hands when she came and left. Terrible candidate. Deserved to lose.
Corner Stone
@D58826: He’s running for the D party nominee. Who does he expect to have vote with him on bills he considers important? Or craft legislation for him to sign?
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Gimlet:
Bullshit – the lazy narrative press did.
Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class
@D58826:
The vanguard of the proletariat needs no organization. The Revolution is historically inevitable and its representatives know from birth what the correct course is.
Corner Stone
“Clinton Hangs On”
That is the fucking headline for MTP? Are you fucking kidding me?
Redshift
@Corner Stone:
That tells us nothing about what primary candidates generally do. It still could well be the case that most primary contenders don’t do much down-ticket fundraising before the nomination is mostly wrapped up, and Hillary, not Bernie, is the outlier.
D58826
@Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class: Ah good. I was hoping there was a plan
Gimlet
@Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class:
I think that particular segment is wanting to vote for something, Bernie’s message, not the lesser of two evils.
Elie
@Ruckus:
Well said. I also just do not believe that there is top down revolution.
Bernie’s character remains a little of a mystery to me. For a socialist who I would think would embody a philosophy of the collective, he actually seems to uphold the individual and individualist prerogatives…. The “we” becomes more “me” — not just him but each of his supporters aint about looping in the “we” outside the narrow confines of their current movement. Supporting down ticket races might be part of that. How does one “grow” their “revolution” without bringing others along or helping others to come along?
Mike J
@Corner Stone:
And previous campaigns are all on fec.gov. Pretty much every elected official from both parties donates to the party and to the party’s house or senate committee. And they have done so for decades.
Applejinx
All they have to do is boot DWS, put Bernie in as the ceremonial head of the DNC, and say here, it’s ‘yours’ now. It negates the ‘vote against the Democratic party’ contingent, assigns Bernie a largely fundraising role (if it wasn’t before, it would quickly be reinvented as largely a fundraising role!) and makes it an obvious call to place his warchest at the disposal of the DNC to be used against Trump or Cruz or whatever bozo the Rs come up with.
I don’t honestly see how DWS can remain head of the DNC at this point. It’s electoral poison, like asking for a party split. Still wondering if there’s kabuki going on there.
PurpleGirl
@Corner Stone: Thank you. Now all the comments make more sense. I understand the problems of the gifted child in regular classes but personally my complaint about school curriculums and policies have more to do with the mis-identification of educational problems.
In the 1950s NYC’s public schools tracked students by the oral reading ability in the 3rd/4th grade. Let that soak in — oral reading ability in the 3rd/4th grade. I have always stuttered. My oral reading ability was somewhat lacking. I wasn’t in the slowest track but in the sort-of-middle track, maybe needing reading help. (Which I did not get.) Maybe some of you may remember a comment recently about reading and libraries and how I was always reading. Well, I had my first standardized test in the 6th grade and had a reading level of 10.9, or almost a high junior. Suddenly I was put in the fast college-bound track. Yes, my reading was good but my mathematics abilities were bad due to the middle track I’d been in not having good mathematics. In High School I discovered an affinity for science, specifically for chemistry. But that bad math background meant that in college I couldn’t cut in chemistry.
I wish the best for all the BJ children for good academics and engaging interests and happy lives.
Elie
@srv:
Yeah, that fat old man is gonna need more help in the stretch than he and many others expect. Stay tuned….. That fat face, with swollen puffy eyes don’t lie..
Gimlet
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
This is a tangent. Here is a longer analysis of the contest.
thestrangedeathofliberalamerica.com/why-martha-coakley-lost-the-kennedy-seat-and-what-this-means-for…
That Coakley ran a lousy campaign is the theme of every piece of analysis out there. That is the wrong question and the wrong answer. The real question is first, how did someone who is such a bad campaigner get the nomination in the first place and second, why was she allowed to continue to run such a bad campaign for so long?
gogol's wife
@Betty Cracker:
See comment 104.
ETA: Sorry, I misunderstood your comment.
gogol's wife
@Elie:
And isn’t he afraid of germs? Has he done much handshaking yet? When I see him he’s always up on a podium far from the crowd.
ETA: And again I may have misunderstood, but I assume you’re referring to Drumpf.
Betty Cracker
@Applejinx: I think Sanders would be a great choice for that gig if he wants it, but I expect a lot of folks would disagree because he hasn’t been an actual Democrat for all that long. IMO, the positives outweigh the negatives. But I’d be surprised if DWS got das boot before November. It’s a giant, blinking, red PARTY IN DISARRAY sign.
And speaking of shitty party chairmen, if anyone should be on the hot seat, it’s Rinses Repeatus on the Republican side. Jesus Christ, has anyone ever presided over an intra-party train-wreck of this magnitude? He makes DWS look like a goddamned genius!
Matt McIrvin
@Gimlet:
The Sanders supporters I actually know (including my wife) tell me they will and have never seriously considered otherwise.
Ready
@Betty Cracker:
I prefer Rubio obviously but would be fine with Cruz!
Jen Rubin had a good piece today on how Cruz can win over mainstream conservatives:
washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2016/03/06/could-cruz-ever-unify-the-gop/
BBA
Talking about retail politics reminds me of Gordon Brown’s encounter with a “bigoted woman who said she used to be Labour,” as he later described her while his microphone was still on. The press thought it was scandalous that Brown apparently held his voters in such contempt. What got less attention was that her complaints about Eastern European immigrants, although common among the electorate, really were bigoted – and if the people want bigotry and you don’t, you’re going to lose the election. And there’s no way around it – contra Brecht, you can’t just dissolve the people and elect another.
What this says about our election I can’t say.
gogol's wife
@Betty Cracker:
Interesting that he immediately knew who Spoofy McTrollpants was.
Matt McIrvin
I think we political junkies vastly overestimate how much the mass of humanity cares about Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
Chyron HR
@Gimlet:
And they’re very, very, very mad that a party they only “belonged to” in the sense that they voted for its presidential candidate in 2012 hasn’t turned the reins of power over to them no questions asked.
Gimlet
@Matt McIrvin:
She is evidently doing what the party establishment likes or they would remove her.
D58826
@Matt McIrvin:
Why do we keep talking about Sgt. Schultz’s granddaughter? :-)
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Gimlet:
I’ve lived in the Boston area my whole life. I’ve seen more Massachusetts politics from more directions than anyone you’ll ever meet. Coakley is from western Mass, born and educated. She won statewide office as Attorney General but never really was part of the party Establishment and because of her office, she had to hold herself apart because she cares about not appearing corrupt. She’s easy and smart on TV, but terrible instincts as a glad handing campaigner. That’s what Bernie’s people don’t seem to understand – the conflict between organizing, running for office and fundraising, and holding the structure – the party workers – that supports those efforts as inherently corrupt. Bernie should know better after all these years, but he’s a scold and knows everything better than everyone and there’s nothing to learn. He’s committing political malpractice if he were truly serious about a revolution.
ETA: Look up Martha Coakley and the Amiraults. Many people held her in complete contempt for her actions as AG in that matter.
Berto
@Gimlet: ,
Maybe HRC should cede some of the neoliberal policies to gain the support of the Sanders supporters. Especially, if winning the general election is more important to her and her supporters than neoliberal purity.
Matt McIrvin
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
The controversy over Warren’s old claim of Native American ancestry, and how Brown’s fans played it, also made it clear to me that Massachusetts has some really baldly racist Republicans. There was a guy in my town who put a huge sign on the side of his house urging people to vote for Brown because he was “NOT AN INDIAN”. When a bunch of people around here started putting up those gigantic Trump billboards in their yards, I was not particularly surprised.
JMG
@Corner Stone: Just standard Washington political media coverage based on one of their main rules — nothing good happens to or can happen to Hillary Clinton. If she’s elected on November 8, headlines on November 9 will read Clinton to become failed President.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
DNC chair should never again hold a simultaneous elected office. My main concern with Bernie in that role would be his ability to advocate for red state Democrats who are blue doggy.
Baud
@Berto:
I would agree if I thought that would be effective. It wouldn’t be.
BBA
@srv: I don’t see President Rubio doing anything to fix the island’s moribund economy or resolve its ongoing debt crisis. Then again, nobody else seems to care either. Why should they, it’s not like PR has a vote!
Feudalism Now!
DWS doesn’t have to worry about the majority of the voting public, or the majority of the Democrat voting public. All she has to worry about is whether the party power players are happy. She doesn’t even need to be concerned with winning majorities or gaining successes in party platform turned into legislation. She needs to keep money moving into campaigns, and certain campaigns more than others. That is why she is not replaced, she keeps the donation stream going to people that keep her in her position.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Matt McIrvin:
Yeah. Scratch a good looking charming Republican and you get a racist. HOOCOODANODE
Technocrat
@Berto:
They wouldn’t believe her if she did.
pseudonymous in nc
@Applejinx:
That’s perhaps a bit over the top:
That said, DWS should never have been in a campaigning position to begin with, given how she’s systematically undermined challenges to Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Mario Diaz-Balart in winnable districts. Don’t care how buddy-buddy you are or whether you’ve collaborated on Miami-area issues: if you’re working for the party to win elections, you no longer have any friends in elected positions on the other side.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: Unfortunately, too many important races seem to turn on things like calling a great Red Sox pitcher (who subsequently apparently turned into a Teabagger grifter) a Yankee fan or for some reason letting one’s driver’s license lapse for 10 years.
These important elected offices control life-and-death decisions. It’s a crime that such trivial things can affect the outcome. But it’s also a crime that candidates who are aiming to have the power to make such decisions cannot get these simple little things right.
I’m not sure where the balance is, but it’s so unfortunate that so many innocent people pay the price… :-(
Cheers,
Scott.
D58826
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: I wonder if Bernie’s outlook has been colored by the fact that he comers from a small rather homogeneous state, that hasn’t been the center of political attention for a long time (if ever). It’s a small media market and politics is largely retail.
Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class
@Gimlet:
Then that segment can kiss my spotty fat ass – they’re all fuckups.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:
One of the things that happened in the late summer/fall before that election was Dianne Wilkerson, another high profile State Senator who was a black woman with a long political history in Boston, got caught on camera stuffing cash down her bra as payoff for political favors. She was a lying POS, and since it also involved *those people*, it riled a certain kind of voter up. Scott Brown tapped into that, but to his credit he didn’t dog whistle it, just took advantage of it. He’s a smart politician.
MattF
@Ready: Rubin completely omits any mention of Cruz’s evangelical base. And then goes on to explain why he’s going to have to change all his policy positions to become a viable candidate. I can see why she does that… but Senator Cruz in-real-life is a much more problematic candidate than Rubin will admit.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@D58826:
Bernie hasn’t had any competition for his seat in years. Vermont is as far away from black people problems as it’s possible to get in this racist as fuck country and Bernie is their hippie king, yet Hillary is the one who’s being coronated because she’s getting so many black votes and party delegates. Miss me with that.
akryan
Holy shit, I have never heard so many helicopter parents getting so wired about summer camps and college admissions. Here’s the actual deal about summer academic camps, because I went to the John’s Hopkins one when I was a kid. They’re fun. You get away from the folks for a few weeks, you get to hang out with other kids who are enjoying the same type of freedom, and you get to sneak away to make out with girls. I absolutely recommend sending your kids there, but don’t expect it to be the Very Serious Program that inspires your special snowflake to academic greatness.
LAC
@Matt McIrvin: so are mine. Where these folks are with their pouty faces and boots that are made for walking are unknown to me. At least not in that number.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud:
@pseudonymous in nc: This!
Jeffro
@Ready:
You must be kidding – that piece was sheer fantasy. Go back and count how many times Rubin essentially said, “If Cruz can quit doing thing X that he always does…” or “If Cruz can start being much more mainstream/moderate on positions A, B, and C”
He can’t. He won’t. That’s why he’s Cruz and that’s why his colleagues can’t stand him. He couldn’t even get Mike Lee’s endorsement. I mean, seriously, Rubin’s column is beyond la-la land.
redshirt
I’ve said it many times, but if we have to one of these clowns as the R nominee, and we do, I’d prefer Trump over Cruz by a lot. Trump seems like he can reasonable or rationale on some things. And who knows, he might totally be a liberal in asshole’s clothing.
Cruz is a true believer, a probable psychopath who’d possibly doom us all to the fires of nuclear war. No thanks.
Jeffro
ETA w/ quotes from the dumb Rubin post…but I must have messed them up with my brackets or something. Oh well. The interested can go check out her hope-against-hope aspirations for a suddenly palatable Ted Cruz over at the WaPo if they want to.
Technocrat
@redshirt:
Agreed. I could live with Trump, if the alternative was Cruz. In fact, I’m not shamed to admit that the bitter pill this would present to the GOP would fuel no small amount of schadenfreude.
Of course, as nasty as this GE promises to be, it’s likely I will bitterly despise him by election day.
Corner Stone
@akryan:
That did not actually happen here. If you think that was what happened here then you are a fucking moran.
No one helicoptered in. No one bunched their panties about anything. There was a back and forth about what the current system considers and/or does not consider.
IOW, GFY.
redshirt
@Technocrat: I want nothing to do with Trump, of course. But if you’re picking death by cult versus death by lack of health insurance…..
Davebo
@Corner Stone: I think TIPS can be a great idea but I’m not sure how much I’d invest for a middle schooler.
I’d say a involved parent, which you obviously are is the most important thing. Then of course, a good high school is big.
Knowing roughly where you are, let me implore you to avoid Rainard like the plague and Awty as well. Rainerd will happily tell you your kid is a genius to get the tuition and Awty, well unless the kid wants to live in France….
Technocrat
@redshirt:
Yeah, exactly. Cruz is the type of MF-er that’s historically associated with purges.
Trump might accidentally improve something.
ksmiami
@Technocrat: @Technocrat: @Technocrat: The American political system was not designed for pure ideologues to be in power – the nation is too big, too diverse etc true Zealot Cruz should not even be a candidate.
henqiguai
@Gimlet(#121):
Glad I don’t live in your reality.
Corner Stone
@Davebo: Have a good friend who sent his son and daughter to Awty. Mixed results, as kids are their own person.
I can’t afford it, even if I wanted to.
chopper
@Applejinx:
why would you put in charge of the DNC someone with no history of raising money for, or campaigning for, democratic candidates?
NotMax
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
William Henry Harrison?
;)
sinnedbackwards
@akryan: Hugely pedantic, but no ‘postrophe in “Johns”. It was his first name. Thanks.