I am settling in and starting to knit. The 538 election monitor just gave people heart palpitations, but as of this instant seems to be back to 5 out of 9 that Dems will take the House. Someone on Twitter commented that the way that indicator is fluctuating means it’s not a very good indicator. Which I tend to agree with.
Meanwhile, some good things are happening.
Kim Davis appears to have lost. The clerk in Rowan County, Ky., became a folk hero to social conservatives after refusing to issue same-sex marriage licenses. She trails Democrat Elwood Caudill by 54 to 46 percent, with 89 percent of precincts reporting
— GOVERNING (@GOVERNING) November 7, 2018
? Race call: Michigan Democrat Rashida Tlaib has won #MI13, becoming the first Muslim woman ever elected to Congresshttps://t.co/nB6yeY4y45
— BuzzFeed News (@BuzzFeedNews) November 7, 2018
Ayanna Pressley just made history as the first black woman elected to Congress from Massachusetts.
— Alexi McCammond (@alexi) November 7, 2018
KEY RACE ALERT: NO UPDATES YET BUT HI
— Alexandra Petri (@petridishes) November 7, 2018
Remember whatever happens tonight, the ocean is still slowly swallowing Florida.
— Monica Potts (@MonicaBPotts) November 7, 2018
I’m looking forward to the results of some of the New Mexico races, but the polls haven’t closed yet. They will at the hour.
wasabi gasp
This is bad. America is diseased.
Cheryl Rofer
Baud
MacGrath lost. That’s too bad. I liked her.
imonlylurking
Very disappointed about KY06. I knew it was a long shot, but I got my hopes up.
Mary G
Some hope in Georgia, court orders a few places kept open until 10 p.m. EST:
If Kemp holds on, his election will be totally bogus.
Paul W.
Oh god, I don’t want to say Cole was right but… Fuck Florida.
Shana
Thanks Alexandra Petri. Made us both laugh.
Cheryl Rofer
Baud
@Cheryl Rofer: That’s good at least.
Sarah, Proud and Tall
The waiting is fucking killing me…
Mnemosyne
I’m going to try and stay away from the news tonight. I need to work on my novel and send s_c some movie review notes anyway, so it’s for my own good.
Contrary to my foul-mouthed persona here, I never swear at my day job, so all of my coworkers came running after I yelled out, “Oh, shit!” when I dropped a full cup of hot chocolate on the office floor. They were worried that I had injured myself since they’d never heard me swear before. ?
bystander
Wouldn’t it be great if the persona of Mme Defarge became the seminal figure of the age?
guachi
McGrath lost in Kentucky.
Democrats still haven’t won a seat where the 538 chance was under 50%. They’ve lost 4 seats where the chance was 40-50%.
This is looking like a disaster.
cain
Florida is really driving me crazy. I swear to God, something has got to be done about that place. Maybe climate change will help.
MobiusKlein
Hey, no spoilers please. I haven’t put my ballot in yet.
kthankxbi
Aleta
The Gay Men’s Chorus of Washington, “Make Them Hear You” on the U.S. Supreme Court steps after opinions on DOMA and Prop. 8 were read, June 26 2013
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ascNnvhfuFQ
Cheryl Rofer
Mnemosyne
@guachi:
Nothing personal, but this kind of stuff is why I need to check out tonight for my own sanity. I should get some good progress on my novel, at least. Good night, all!
dr. bloor
Sorry Betty, I’m voting against every climate change initiative in the future until Florida is completely and irreversibly underwater. And I don’t want to hear any “purple state” shit. The borders are open.
Fuck Florida.
Baud
Manchin wins.
FlipYrWhig
@guachi: dude, why
BlueDWarrior
NBC News is giving Democrats between a 2:1 to 3:2 odds of flipping the House now.
Mary G
Manchin hangs on.
Raven
@guachi: Quit whining.
FlipYrWhig
@Mnemosyne: Tempted to do the same
Quinerly
We lost Indiana.
schrodingers_cat
@Mnemosyne: I am going to check out right now and check in when the actual results start coming in.
Cheryl Rofer
Pogonip
In my little corner of the world, various levies funding needed services are all passing by large margins. I’m pleased.
Platonailedit
The term ugly american is not a stereotype after all.
Baud
Blackburn wins.
Quinerly
Blackburn wins.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
we need some good news
Quinerly
@Baud: Poco hates the bitch. He growls whenever we drive NEAR Tennessee.
zhena gogolia
I’m having serious 2016 flashbacks.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I thought this R would pull it out, cross your fingers and spit three times
voter rights restoration seems to have passed
PIGL
So the blue wave not happening? Or too early to say? I am watching from afar.
Mary G
It’s not as good as I hoped, but seems clear that Amendment 4 is going to pass in Florida, and I doubt many of the people who have their voting rights restored are going to be Republicans, so we need to sign them up for 2020.
OGLiberal
White people suck. I can’t get much whiter. We suck. Just fuck everybody.
Baud
@PIGL: It’s not a wave on the east coast.
Immanentize
Comstock loses. Yay!
Fuck Guachi
cain
Cruz has pulled ahead of Beto.
Mai Naem mobile
Sorry Betty and Adam but fuckety fuck Floriduh.
Cheryl Rofer
Raven
@PIGL: Probably not but the house is in play and that’s where we really have a shot.
gene108
@Quinerly: @Baud:
Wonder how much Phil killled his chances with his support of Kavanaugh?
I can see people just not voting for him and voting down ballot
Quinerly
@zhena gogolia: Me too.
Raven
tobie
@Mai Naem mobile: I think Nelson will put it out in Florida.
gene108
@zhena gogolia:
Same here
Baud
@gene108: Probably not IMHO.
Immanentize
Pritzker flips Illinois governorship blue. Yay!
MomSense
It doesn’t make sense to me that restoration of felon voting rights should would outperform Nelson and Gillum.
Cheryl Rofer
Quinerly
@gene108: Tennessee has been nasty since 2000. Remember… Gore couldn’t carry his own home state.
Baud
@Cheryl Rofer:
Sirota is an idiot.
Mike J
It should be pointed out that not only did Davis lose her county clerk seat, she lost it to somebody to whom she denied a license.
cain
It’s amazing to me that everything is too close to call given the state of this country. It seems Trump’s stuff is perfectly fine for people.
Mai Naem mobile
@tobie: I fucking hope so because Rick Scott should have never been elected governor forget senator. It’s a fucking disgrace.
FelonyGovt
@Quinerly: So much for the Taylor Swift effect.
zhena gogolia
@cain:
Racism and greed.
PIGL
@cain: damn.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@MomSense: Sure it does. There are plenty of redneck felons Trump supporters out there.
dr. bloor
@gene108: Easily answerable question after the votes are all counted.
Immanentize
@Raven: this over and over.
And governorships.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@MomSense: my guess: A lot of white Bubbas with relatives with felony convictions
Quinerly
@MomSense: exactly what I thought. Crazy ain’t it?
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: Sirota may be an idiot but Donnelly spoke approvingly of ending birthright citizenship for children of non-citizens after T floated his idea of ending birthright citizenship by an EO.
Haroldo
@Sarah, Proud and Tall: ;
Howdy! Good to see you.
Raven
@Quinerly: People who thought Blackburn would lose were delusional.
BlueDWarrior
It looks decent at first blush for Spanberger (VA-07), since most of the vote remaining is coming from places where she’s winning by a good amount. Then again, you never know what actual neighborhoods haven’t counted yet so who knows. I dunno what to think about Luria in VA-02, since the one big place remaining is pretty much split.
Raoul
Florida votes decisively for re-enfranchisement, something like 64%. We need to make this a platform in a lot of states going forward. Help undo the damned dissolution of the Voting Right s Act.
Immanentize
@Baud:
This has always been true. Sirota is a self promoting jackass.
PIGL
@FelonyGovt: yup. It looked so promising, too. Seems to me she played the cards she had just about perfectly … not her fault that nothing would be enough.
dr. bloor .
@tobie: Palm Beach Co is closed. Not enough votes left out there to make up the gap.
Mai Naem mobile
@MomSense: Republicans must know lots of Trumpista officials are going to be felons soon.
opiejeanne
@Mnemosyne: I need to do that as well, stay away from the polls. I just looked at Twitter and people are rending their clothes and yelling “We’re fucked!”
I don’t need that tonight.
I’m going to watch Jack Irish, because murder is soothing compared to this.
Dave L
@zhena gogolia: Same here. But most of the bad news so far is coming out of the Confederacy – I still think Dems will do well enough in the unhaunted parts of the country to take the House. And, yes, some individual losses are really hard to take – but getting control of the House is the one prize that matters this election.
PsiFighter37
Worth repeating for good measure, but fuck Florida. The sun and humidity must bake the reason out of people’s brains there.
Raven Onthill
It looks like the Trump/Republican coalition is mostly holding in the South, though there are v some Democratic pickups. I’m wondering about places like Wisconsin now.
PIGL
@cain: the Miami real estate will collapse, I expect within the next 20 years. Something to look forward to.
Cheryl Rofer
Florida is being Florida tonight, but the ballot measure restores voting rights to 1.4 million people. 2020 will be different.
And where are Adam and Betty?????
schrodingers_cat
@Raven Onthill: Virginia seems to be an exception to that.
Mai Naem mobile
I would be embarrassed to be represented by Marsha Blackburn as my senator. Glad I don’t live in Tennessee. She not only doesn’t come across as the sharpest knife in the drawer she is a whackjob.
dr. bloor .
@cain: At some point everyone will wake up and realize that gubmint isn’t some sort of political anomaly but a reflection of who we are as a country. Steve Kings aren’t secreted into the Congress by Old Scratch. He gets there by winning elections.
cain
@Immanentize:
Poster child of the purity pony.
Quinerly
@PsiFighter37: Key West is very nice, though. ?
PaulWartenberg
Majority of Floridians vote FOR felon enfranchisement but then turn out to vote for crooks like DeSantis and Scott into office over decent candidates like Gillum and Nelson.
GILLUM WAS FCKING LEADING IN EVERY POLL. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED.
I may have to move. I need to start looking at library jobs in Illinois or Colorado or something.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat: Sirota’s analysis is still shallow and idiotic.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
close only counts with hand grenades and horseshoes, but it is pretty amazing that O’Rourke is pretty much tied with Cruz with almost 60% of votes in
Suzanne
I’m not coping well. Shit.
Come on, Beto. I love you.
lgerard
@Cheryl Rofer:
packing
Immanentize
First ever Massachusetts black woman congresscritter from Mass. Yay! First ever Muslim woman congresscritter from Mich. Yay!
Take the wins, people.
Mike J
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: I don’t read him, so have no personal opinion but I am sure you are right.
cain
@Cheryl Rofer:
Drinking copiously. ;-)
guachi
I know I’m being doom and gloom, but I won’t stop until Democrats win a seat where their odds are less than 50%. That’s because they are at 220 seats in districts where their odds are greater than 50%. That’s not much of a margin.
So I (and you, I’m sure!) would like to see Democrats win some low chance district.
MomSense
@Quinerly:
Doesn’t make sense.
Raven
@PaulWartenberg:
mdblanche
@PaulWartenberg: Florida must really like its crooks.
Immanentize
@Quinerly:
I am sure Mustang Bobby would second. Where is he??
Mary G
@Mike J: No, that’s going around, but the guy she denied a license to lost the Democratic primary to the guy who’s winning.
MomSense
@PaulWartenberg:
I’m not counting out fuckery
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Tweety of all people just told Dems to buck up
Why not? what are you accomplishing by rubbing our faces in it?
ETA: and I’m usually not on the side of the tone police, but you are really overdoing it
Emma
@PIGL: @PIGL: On behalf of Betty, Adam, myself and all other Florida democrats, we thank you for your wishes.
MomSense
I think I have election PTSD
Adam L Silverman
@cain: All of the folks who know Florida have said to ignore the public polling as the governor’s and senate races were going to be 1% to 2% either way affairs. That said, there’s a lot of Broward, Miami, Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Duval counties still to be counted. Both Gillum and Nelson did very well there in the early voting, the turnout was way up, and from what I just saw Gillum and Nelson are still doing well in them. It will be very close, there will be automatic recounts, but don’t give up just yet.
opiejeanne
@Cheryl Rofer: The reports from ND are encouraging.
Baud
@Adam L Silverman: people were wrong about Gillum pulling Nelson over the line.
Immanentize
@Adam L Silverman:
Ballot box 13 strategy. Be the last to report….
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@Adam L Silverman:
I hope that doesn’t carry over into the polling elsewhere. L the fingers crossed.???
Quinerly
@Raven: I always start out hopeful. Then get depressed pretty quickly. Blackburn’s opponent had been a very popular governor. I guess I still remember a night 10 years ago last night when my country elected a Black man with the middle name Hussein. That’s my hopeful side.
Cheryl Rofer
Jim, Foolish Literalist
another flip for the Dems in PA-5, Mary Gay Scanlon wins big
Mike J
@Mary G: Thanks for the correction. I hate when I get it wrong.
AliceBlue
Glad you’re here Adam!
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Nice. Hopefully Pennsylvania, the Midwest and California can get us back on track.
Raven
@Quinerly: Hoping someone will win and thinking someone will win ain’t the same. These redneck motherfuckers ain’t budging.
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: Right here. Got in about 1/2 an hour ago. Started drafting a post and deleted it.
opiejeanne
@Mike J: No, the guy she denied the license lost in the primary, but she did lose to a Democrat! YAY!
Before she became infamous she ran as a Democrat. She ran this time as a Republican, and she lost. YAY!
Ruckus
@Cheryl Rofer:
Incompetence is not Kemp’s problem. Being a racist fucking asshole is his problem. If it was incompetence there would be problems at normally white polling places as well. And it seems there isn’t. Not incompetence. Blatant fucking racism.
Immanentize
Kim Davis, evil homophobe clerk lists to man she denied a marriage license to. Yay!!
PsiFighter37
Beto still up 2% with 70% in. Go figure if he manages to win and yet we blew Florida.
zhena gogolia
Adam’s here to keep us hydrated and frosty.
Mike in DC
@PaulWartenberg: Maybe a lite version of the Bradley effect.
opiejeanne
@schrodingers_cat: Then Donnelly deserved to lose. Ugh.
BlueDWarrior
VA-02 and VA-07 still look alright insofar as DEM pickups go.
PIGL
@Emma: not wishes, sadly. Wishes I could change were wrong to ever fail and right to prevail. I Don’t actually wish for this outcome but when the rain is falling one can at least note that the unjust are getting wet as well.
Immanentize
Tammy Baldwin wins reelection as senator in Wisconsin. This was a prime Republican pick up target. Yay!
Sister Golden Bear
Yeah sex is great, but have you ever voted a Republican out of office?
Oh yeah baby! Yeeesss! Do it! Don’t stop!
https://www.joemygod.com/2018/11/christian-adulteress-kim-davis-loses-her-fucking-job/
BlueDWarrior
@PsiFighter37: It’s absolutely SHOCKING that there is a competitive statewide race for TX Senate.
Like, seriously, think about it.
zhena gogolia
Cole doesn’t seem to be reading his own blog.
Ben Cisco
Moved into my new house in my old state today. Not sure this was the wind-down I needed, but fuck it – I’m taking all wins!
MazeDancer
Elaine Luria wins!
Second BJ VA Candidate!
So exciting.
Yay, Elaine!
Yay, Luria PostCard Writers
ETA: She may not have won. Too confusing online.
Quinerly
@Immanentize: He hasn’t been around on the few threads I dip in and out of. How’s your migraine. Any better? I have a friend who gets them. Brutal.
zhena gogolia
@Immanentize:
Your positivity is refreshing. Even if it turns out to be misguided.
I just can’t face a Putinist future.
Mandarama
None of our local outlets have called it for Blackburn…where did y’all see that?
Davidson, Knox, and Shelby counties aren’t in at all. Sure, she’ll probably win…but right now it’s just outlying Assbackwardsvilles reporting.
P.S. I do think we’re a dumb and troubled nation, generally. But I was told in 2008 to have hope and I still think of trying.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
early Dem pick up in CO, Jason Crow beats R incumbent Mike Coffman
Baud
@MazeDancer: Nice.
Adam L Silverman
@cain: Actually I was having duck panang.
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Nice.
jk
@Baud:@Immanentize: @cain:
David Sirota is 100% correct, it’s you three who are the idiots.
guachi
I am so keeping my fingers crossed for VA 2 and 7 as those are reach districts for Democrats and would be the first districts Democrats will have won where their odds were less than 50% (or even 80%, for that matter).
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@zhena gogolia:
Wasn’t losing a few seats in the Senate a likely possibility? It sucks, but I’m not surprised, based on the polling forecasts.
Jay
@Ruckus:
BTW, ProPublica and a bunch of regional newspapers are running a project to document ALL forms of poll fuckery, by polling station.
Quinerly
@Mandarama: MSNBC
Juju
@Quinerly: I’m with Poco. I growl when I hear her name. I don’t even have to drive there.
MazeDancer
Conor Lamb fulfills his double digit lead and scores another BJ Candidate win.
Raven
@zhena gogolia: Like that is something new.
Immanentize
Check out New Hampshire peeps. Gov. Sunnunu was supposed to walk away with his reelection, but it is within 2% without the cities…. Yay!
Baud
@jk: Sirota’s shtick is tired and he’s an idiot.
BlueDWarrior
and now VA-02 has the Republican up by about a 1000 votes while VA-07 still has the Democrat ahead by a handful.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: I will admit to that. However, what we don’t know is whether Nelson is within striking distance because Gillum’s voters got him there. Had Gwen Graham been the nominee, and she was trailing DeSantis, would Nelson be doing worse? We don’t know. We may never know.
tobie
@Baud:Progressive Liz Watson got crushed tonight in Indiana so I’m not sure what strategy works best in a deeply red state. Having a history with people? Being a strong candidate? Not being a woman or an African American. I dunno…
Baud
@MazeDancer: Nice.
zhena gogolia
@Raven:
Well, he’s tweeting “Is there any good news?” when he could just read the comments here. I just find it a little strange . . . .
Immanentize
@zhena gogolia: does he ever?
Yarrow
Expect Texas results to go late. Harris county, the largest population county in TX, had several polling locations stay open until 8 p.m., so just half an hour ago.
Dorothy A. Winsor
The district I live in now (IL 6) and the one I moved from (IA 1) are both predicted to flip to D, though I haven’t heard anything yet. Have heart.
Cheryl Rofer
cain
@dr. bloor .:
Agreed. I guess we aren’t ready let go. But the wheel moves on and the country is turning more colorful as time goes on. But in the meanwhile, we are going to be in deep shit for while, I guess we’ll continue to resist. But I feel that we are going to get the house, and we have flipped the governorship. We might be freaking out on stuff that was a longshot to begin with. Texas is looking VERY interesting and we’ll see what happens in two years.
Trump is doing okay because the economy is still doing okay. But things will never stay the same.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@jk: make that a table for four, Sirota’s a douchebro
Baud
@tobie: Personal charisma, apparently. Bill Clinton, Obama, Beto.
Adam L Silverman
@zhena gogolia: Slushies for everyone!!!!
PsiFighter37
Despite Ohio being called early for Brown, it’s tightened up a lot. It also looks like Cordray’s going to lose Round 2 to that motherfucking asshat DeWine…
philpm
I’m really frightened that Rick Scott may be allowed to fail upwards yet again, when his ass should be in jail.
Cheryl Rofer
I have been thinking this. The racists won’t admit their racism to the pollsters.
Immanentize
@Baud:
Baud!
Mike J
Soonergrunt calls CO-06 for us.
cain
@Adam L Silverman:
Florida has done htis every time if I recall. Gore Vs Bush being the worst. Thanks for the positive news. Beto is doing well in Texas, so I’m feeling good.
Ohio Mom
I am happy Sherrod Brown won, again. But unless there is a fast turn around, looks like the big state offices —governor, etc. — are staying in Republican hands. How can the same state that understands how great Sherrod is, keep voting in Republicans for everything else?
Sigh.
Raven
@zhena gogolia: Shit, he doesn’t even engage with the threads he starts.
tobie
@Baud: Good point.
LAC
@Mnemosyne: definitely personal. I wish this fucking eeyore whining ass guachi would put a lid on it.
Cheryl Rofer
FWIW
opiejeanne
@Ben Cisco: I hope this is a great move for you.
Adam L Silverman
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??: The Democrats had about a 20% chance of taking the Senate. That meant it was/is possible, but not probable.
PsiFighter37
Looks like Carlos Curbelo, one of those polite “Let me talk crap about my party but vote with them” is going to (barely) go down tonight. Probably the last piece of good news out of that worthless craphole of a state.
Cheryl Rofer
zhena gogolia
@Raven:
True.
Baud
@Cheryl Rofer: Wow. Possibly the best news of the night.
guachi
@Cheryl Rofer: Yup. America is a lot more bigoted and racist than we think it is.
The quiet bigotry of America shows up at the polls. Maybe affluent suburbs will pull this out for the Democrats. I hope so. We have the big targets of VA, NJ, PA, and CA still open. The Democrats can almost take the House just from winning the winnable races there.
bluehill
@Cheryl Rofer: Obviously big and what the polls were suggesting. This is progress.
cain
@schrodingers_cat:
I wish we would stop putting in conservatives in these places. It never works. Even if they do they don’t last very long. See Blue Dogs.
Raven Onthill
@Cheryl Rofer: “The racists won’t admit their racism to the pollsters.”
Just so. And the misogynists even more so.
Baud
@Cheryl Rofer: Thanks. I hope they aren’t lying again.
Cheryl Rofer
PIGL
@Adam L Silverman: One of my favorites.
Baud
@Cheryl Rofer: Nice.
Quinerly
@Raven: If that’s the case, how did Tennessee ever elect a popular Dem governor? Not looking for an argument but Bresden (sp?) appeared to be a strong candidate for TN.
Raven Onthill
I hope the black working class turns out in the midwest.
cain
@Adam L Silverman:
I had traditional south indian meal of adai and a side. Delicious.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@guachi:
538’s average the last time I looked (yesterday) was +38 seats for D’s. I never thought it was going to be +50 seats.
@Adam L Silverman:
Yup.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: I agree.
cain
We are now in 70% chance of House pick up. Wooohoo!!
BlueDWarrior
FOX News believes that the Democrats will win the House.
MSNBC believes that it is a 70% chance to win the House.
Cheryl Rofer
bluehill
@Cheryl Rofer: Seems almost as big as taking back the house. Hope Ds in NC can undo a lot of the voter suppression stuff and help NC trend the way VA has trended blue. Could be big in 2020.
Adam L Silverman
@cain: Regardless of what happens tonight, the Florida senate and governor’s races will likely wind up in mandatory recounts. At this point you could still get a DeSantis governor/Scott senator, DeSantis governor/Nelson senator, Gillum governor/Nelson senator, or a Gillum governor/Scott senator outcome.
cain
There is a blue wave in Colorado. It’s flippin good.
Baud
@cain: What’s the alternative?
PsiFighter37
On the bright side, Kobach is down 11% in Kansas with 55% in. Hope that motherfucker burns tonight.
Cheryl Rofer
With partial reporting from not many precincts yet, NM is looking good for Democrats. But Ben Ray is behind??????
Raoul
Pollis projected to win CO. First openly gay US governor!
zhena gogolia
@Baud:
unicorns
Mary G
This is too early to tell anything, but a good start:
Eolirin
@Baud: Not needing Indiana at all. That’s pretty much the only other option.
Baud
@PsiFighter37:
@Mary G:
Send him back to Wingnut Welfare.
Raven
@Quinerly: That was 12 years ago. Hell there were even Dem governors in Georgia back then.
BlueDWarrior
MSNBC going up to 80% chance for the House flipping overall.
PsiFighter37
@Quinerly: Same reason Evan Bayh lost in 2016. They may have been popularly elected statewide in the past, but they disappear for 10+ years since their last election and think nothing has changed about the crowd they are catering to. It’s the same logic as to why Anchorman 2 and Diablo III stank – you don’t revisit franchises after leaving them dormant for a long time.
trnc
@Cheryl Rofer: Good. Maybe the sample ballots I handed out today helped.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Raven: and wasn’t that Dem governor Zell Fucking Miller, as Rosalyn Carter calls him?
lgerard
The suspense in VA-7 is killing me
beat the brat!
opiejeanne
@LAC: I was about to feed him some pie but he seems to have wandered off.
I had to walk away from Twitter tonight because people there who should know better are running around like their hair’s on fire and posting doom and gloom because early returns on a couple of races looked dire, but are still too close to call.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Raven:
And a Republican Governator in California.
PsiFighter37
@Raven: To be fair, Georgia hasn’t had a Democratic governor elected in the 2000s. The last one elected statewide in Georgia was 1998 (Roy Barnes). Not looking like Stacy Abrams is going to do much better tonight…
cain
@tobie:
Some places need a generation or so to work itself out. Indiana though has always been a deeply red state. I’m currently out here in West Lafayette, IN. A liberal oasis in a sea of red. Good people here.
Raoul
Early returns say that Erik Paulsen, spineless toad Repub is being crushed. MN-02. Phew.
BlueDWarrior
VA SOS Site [ https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2018%20November%20General/Site/Congress.html ] is reporting that VA-07 and VA-02 are back in favor of the Democratic candidate.
It looks like the Democrats will get the House by a slim but not super-slim margin; but there are still questions abound.
Raven
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Sho nuf, and then Roy Barnes. Barnes is the one who really fucked it up by alienating teachers.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@opiejeanne: Seems like more of a cheesecake person.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@lgerard: and there were two flippable districts in Jersey that I thought we’d hear about by now: Lance’s and Freylinghausen’s, no?
PsiFighter37
Beto shown down about 1% with 75% in – anyone know if he has a realistic shot of recovering? Lots of blank squares on the TX map seem to be Bumfuck counties, likely filled with supporters of the Canadian-Cuban.
Mary G
@Raoul: I know, and also a gun control candidate! I always thought Colorado would be hard to turn, because hunting, but newp!
Parkland kids/March4OurLives/Moms Demand Action really changed the narrative on guns.
Raven
@PsiFighter37: And Breseden was last elected in 2006.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@PsiFighter37: Chris Hayes was saying Beto’s own House district is El Paso, in the Mountain Time Zone part of the state, where the polls are open for another 11 minutes. Still a longshot, but let’s keep hoping
ETA: MN-3 flips to the Dems
BlueDWarrior
@PsiFighter37: the big Democratic counties are nowhere near being completely counted, though are starting to fill in as we speak.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
I thought I was going to be obsessively watching results, but my stomach can’t take this. I’ll take the occasional good news blip instead.
Here’s some from here in PA. Our Democratic governor overwhelmingly won reelection, as did Bob Casey for Senate. In the newly ungerrymandered PA-05, the Democrat Mary Gay Scanlon is projected to win by 30 points or so. This area was formerly represented by the odious Pat Meehan and his memory is gone, gone, gone.
lgerard
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
a couple in NY as well
PsiFighter37
Looking like we’re going to squeak by in VA-07 and VA-02. That would make me feel loads better – 3 out of 4 possible seats in VA would be great.
B.B.A.
Sad news from Vermont, as Wilmer has won reelection.
Scamp Dog
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Nice!
zhena gogolia
@B.B.A.:
Haha. Was there any doubt? I assume this is just a witticism.
lgerard
@lgerard:
upset brewing on Staten Island as Donovan s behind 51-47
philpm
WOOHOO! Sharice Davids knocks out Kevin Yoder in KS-03!
Mai Naem mobile
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Zellout who btw died of either Alzheimer’s or dementia which kind of made me wonder if he had beginning stage dementia when he was endorsing Bush and McCain.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
MSNBC calls KS- 3 for Sharice Davids. Wow wow wowee!
mdblanche
@Adam L Silverman: How do you Floridians deal with your state’s insanity on a day by day basis? Only a brief exposure to it is enough to drive some people here around the bend.
BlueDWarrior
Looks like 538’s Predict-O-Matic is now starting to get in line with what the major news orgs are thinking: up to 70% Overall Flip Chance for the Democrats in the House.
We’re probably gonna lose 2 or 3 Senate seats though, it’s hard to win in the Senate when you have this shit of a map and you have Trump basically screaming “White People Uber Alles” all the time.
MSNBC now saying 90% Chance of an overall Flip.
opiejeanne
@?BillinGlendaleCA: How can you tell? Or is it that pie is too good for some people and you don’t care as much for cheesecake?
zhena gogolia
@philpm:
Oh, wonderful!
Raven Onthill
@cain: I’m hopeful that the West Coast will go Democratic. We’re seeing flips in the Mountain West.
Adam L Silverman
@mdblanche:
Raven
@Mai Naem mobile: I have a nice 8×10 shot with him when I spoke to a group he attended. Fucking asshole.
janesays
@B.B.A.: You were hoping for Republicans to have an even larger majority in the Senate?
Quinerly
@PsiFighter37: if we are talking about TN, pretty sure Bredesen was a two term governor. Don’t think he left the state. Could be missing your point but not like going to DC and not coming home to visit. I do think Bredesen has been out of office since 2011 or 2012. I could be talking out my ass… Used to drive through TN 4 times a year. Lots of stops along the way. I enjoy talking to strangers in my travels… diners, restaurants, gas stations, rest stops.
catatonia
As a white middle-aged man, seeing Davids win in KS-3 makes me feel pretty damn good.
Quinerly
Kobach goes down!
PsiFighter37
@Quinerly: He won his 2nd term in 2006. So it’s been 12 years since he had to face voters.
Matt McIrvin
@B.B.A.: Eh, he’s fine there.
philpm
And Kobach goes down. We have a Dem governor in Kansas!
zhena gogolia
@lgerard:
My “adopted” district is NY-19 (Delgado vs. Faso). I can’t find any results.
cain
@Adam L Silverman:
I look forward to another couple of days of WTFs then :-)
Matt McIrvin
@PsiFighter37: But not much of the big blue cities is in. Hard to say.
gene108
@cain:
Vellum on the side or it doesn’t count.
Bill Arnold
@Aleta:
Thanks for the song links in threads tonight. Appreciated, and spot-on.
mad citizen
@cain: Saw Liz Watson’s commercials here in Indy and I thought they were terrible. Much too stiff and robotic. Heard tonight that her opponent, a one term R incumbent, knocked on 30,000 doors, so that’s something.
lgerard
@zhena gogolia:
Delgado up 55-42 but with only 1.5% counted per NYT
Suzanne
I am in AZ-9. Candidate is Greg Stanton, former mayor of Phoenix. Crossed fingers; polls just closed.
Ben Cisco
@Quinerly: DOWN GOES KOBACH! DOWN GOES KOBACH!
MagdaInBlack
@Adam L Silverman:
What the ever luvin F?!?
cain
@Baud:
Get good candidates that are charismatic and can talk to the issues. We’ve already tried to run conservative people, so we don’t lose anything by running people true to democratic values. Maybe focus more on worker issues as well.
Ben Cisco
NY-11 (Staten Island) flips!
lgerard
@lgerard:
now up 49-48 with 4% in per wpo
https://www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/new-york/?utm_term=.c98c8b53d846
Mandarama
@Quinerly: I just wrote a long-ass post explaining Phil Bredesen and why he was a good chance…and the site went “server not responding.” Shit. I’m too overwhelmed to redo it…but yes, you’re right. Phil B. has stayed here.
burnspbesq
@jk:
Sirota thinks Ohio and Indiana are indistinguishable. That’s beyond stupid. Fuck him.
Matt McIrvin
Meanwhile, what the hell is going on in New Jersey? Andy Kim is getting crushed.
Quinerly
@Ben Cisco: best news all night?
Best news so far?
BlueDWarrior
Beto is still within 100K with most of the big counties still not reported. Harris isn’t even to close until like… now maybe?
Matt McIrvin
@Quinerly: Best news of the entire year.
Ben Cisco
@Quinerly: Like I said, I’m taking all wins!
CaseyL
Thank FSM for this thread. The other one had me ready to slit my wrists.
Kris Kobach losing is excellent news!
sixthdoctor
@cain: This tweet says it all…
Kathleen
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Detest despise and loathe that pinched face effer.
Quinerly
@Mandarama: Raven pointed out rightfully how long it had been since he ran a campaign. I see his point. Time does get away… I just remember him be very popular statewide a few years back.
Gin & Tonic
@Matt McIrvin: Suburban NJ is chock-full of racists.
Raoul
KANSAS! Kobach projected to lose. Davids to win. Phew!!
philpm
Unfortunately, Heitkamp has lost to the odious Paul Cramer in ND.
Quinerly
Heitkamp loses.
Adam L Silverman
@MagdaInBlack: It’s a special place…
mad citizen
Hearing ABC is calling it for Cruz. Phuck!!!
Haroldo
And 538 is back up into a much more comfortable range (90% Dem with a +34 seat pick up). Relief.
opiejeanne
@CaseyL: I didn’t read the other one, but Twitter was like that. So full of despair.
I think we’re ok, although some of my pets haven’t won yet, like Gillum and Beto, but there’s still time and not all precincts are in.
cain
@gene108:
LOL.. I refused and had kootu instead. :-)
philpm
Fuck, Beto loses.
Quinerly
Cruz projected winner by MSNBC
opiejeanne
@mad citizen: How many precincts are still left, though? How can they call it for Cruz if the blue areas haven’t been counted and one area’s polls just closed?
cain
@BlueDWarrior:
Looks like they called it for Cruz. :( Beto did an amazing job!
Aleta
Called for Laura Kelly over Kobach in KS
cain
I’m sad about Beto. But we have not seen the last of him. We’ll be seeing him again. I had wished we could have kicked out Cruz, but unfortunately that didn’t happen.
Matt McIrvin
Beto did way better than I expected.
cain
Fuck you pete sessions, glad you’re gone!
philpm
As consolation for Beto, Pete Sessions loses his seat.
gene108
@Matt McIrvin:
Been living in this district 20+ years. We have had a Republican Rep in all but two. Dem won in 2008 and lost in 2010.
Lots of negative to out right lies about Andy Kim by Tom MacArthur. Probably has had an effect.
lgerard
HA HA
Steve King already behind
only 1% in though
lgerard
VA-7 any minute now!
Juju
@burnspbesq: wasn’t Indiana the heart of the klan for a while in the early 20th century?
Aleta
ME: Golden just pulled ahead of Poliquin, still close though. Neither have 50% so far (ranked choice). Mills D for Gov is looking good atm.
(Comments are loading slowly for me.)
philpm
@Juju: Still is.
Matt McIrvin
@lgerard: It’s flipping back and forth. I don’t really expect Steve King to lose but God damn, it’s great to see him sweat.
Matt McIrvin
CNN called Luria!
Bill Arnold
@Cheryl Rofer:
I’m not ruling out …issues… with the vote counting apparatuses in certain jurisdictions.
The margins are depressingly big though.
Raven Onthill
Nate Silver projects a Democratic win in the House, with a 95% confidence level. TPM comments that it appears a blue wave washed over the suburbs.
OK, some hope left. My family (ravens being family-oriented birds) probably keeps its health insurance.
On the other hand, Republicans have held the Senate. Not surprising, but unhappy. More Republican judges, more Republican foreign “policy.”