A whole lot of people got really excited yesterday after some reporters mistakenly reported that NATO had agreed to admit Ukraine. The bottom line is that the English language tweet by Ukrainian President Zelensky about Ukraine and NATO, while accurate, was confusing if you do not understand some of the technical details regarding NATO. This was then compounded when, because they’d been primed by the confusing tweet, people then interpreted President Biden’s remarks within the incorrect framing from Zelensky’s tweet. Here’s Zelensky’s original statement:
Commend @NATO partners' understanding of all the risks and challenges we face. NATO leaders confirmed that ?? will become a member of the Alliance & the #MAP is an integral part of the membership process. ?? deserves due appreciation of its role in ensuring Euro-Atlantic security
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 14, 2021
And it is the “#MAP is an integral part of the membership process” that confused people. So what is the #MAP? MAP stands for Membership Action Plan. The NATO Membership Action Plan is:
The Membership Action Plan (MAP) is a NATO programme of advice, assistance and practical support tailored to the individual needs of countries wishing to join the Alliance. Participation in the MAP does not prejudge any decision by the Alliance on future membership. Bosnia and Herzegovina is currently participating.
Countries participating in the MAP submit individual annual national programmes on their preparations for possible future membership. These cover political, economic, defence, resource, security and legal aspects.
The MAP process provides a focused and candid feedback mechanism on aspirant countries’ progress on their programmes. This includes both political and technical advice, as well as annual meetings between all NATO members and individual aspirants at the level of the North Atlantic Council to assess progress, on the basis of an annual progress report. A key element is the defence planning approach for aspirants, which includes elaboration and review of agreed planning targets.
Throughout the year, meetings and workshops with NATO civilian and military experts in various fields allow for discussion of the entire spectrum of issues relevant to membership.
The MAP was launched in April 1999 at the Alliance’s Washington Summit to help countries aspiring to NATO membership in their preparations. The process drew heavily on the experience gained during the accession process of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, which became members in the Alliance’s first post-Cold War round of enlargement in 1999.
Participation in the MAP
Participation in the MAP helped prepare the seven countries that joined NATO in the second post-Cold War round of enlargement in 2004 (Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia) as well as Albania and Croatia, which joined in April 2009. Montenegro, which joined the MAP in December 2009, became a member of the Alliance in June 2017. The Republic of North Macedonia, which had been participating in the MAP since 1999, joined NATO in March 2020.
Currently, Bosnia and Herzegovina is participating in the MAP, having been invited to do so in 2010. At the time, Allied foreign ministers called on the authorities in Bosnia and Herzegovina to resolve a key issue concerning the registration of immovable defence property to the state. At their meeting in December 2018, foreign ministers decided that NATO is ready to accept the submission of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s first Annual National Programme under the MAP. The registration of immovable defence property to the state remains essential.
The issue Ukraine has is that since NATO decided in 2008 that Ukraine could join at some future time, provided it met the criteria, is that nothing has really changed since then in terms of Ukraine meeting the eligibility criteria. Here’s NATO’s communique on the subject from yesterday:
Where things actually stand is that Ukraine is still not ready for admission to NATO because it has to first do the Membership Action Plan that will demonstrate that it has satisfied all the requirements to join. Unfortunately, Ukraine has yet to be able to demonstrate that it has satisfied all the preliminary requirements to begin the Membership Action Plan process. Once it does that, then, provided NATO agrees that is has met the Membership Action Plan requirements, it can begin the Membership Action Plan process that will, provide it can then satisfy those requirements, lead to Ukraine’s admission to NATO. Until then nothing has changed. NATO has said and is still saying that Ukraine may one day join NATO if it qualifies.
If I might make a suggestion: it might behoove the news media to actually bring a subject matter expert with them on these trips who can explain what the technical language regarding NATO means, or, at least, quickly check with one, before tweeting out breaking news and getting everyone riled up for the better part of a day. Just as it might behoove a front pager to ask for input on what this means from the front pager who actually supervised officers from our NATO partners. Just a thought.
Open thread.
Cheryl Rofer
The problem seems to have occurred when a journalist who was ignorant on the subject misinterpreted Zelinsky’s tweet. I was headed out when Twitter blew up, and it was pretty much calmed down when I got back.
We were all on hair trigger during the previous four years because we started out thinking, oh this is an absurd mistake, so I’ll ignore it. Too many times that absurd mistake turned out to be what TFG intended. So we learned to pay attention to things we shouldn’t have had to.
But we are now in a place where obviously absurd things can be ignored, unless they come from Florida or or Bedminster. And even then, they don’t have the impact of something at national level.
ian
I had not heard that Ukraine’s security services were still in such bad shape. I was under the impression that many of them had gotten the boot post 2012. Could you go further into corruption and security service issues in Ukraine for us, when you have the time? Many thanks Adam.
PaulWartenberg
Query 1: just how far into the MAP process is Ukraine? What steps remain as part of the admissions goals?
2: What can the United States under Biden do to assist Ukraine to reach those goals?
3: How soon can this be completed so we can collectively punch Putin in the nads and laugh at him as he rolls over in pain? ‘Cause that SOB has a LOT to answer for…
Cameron
If there actually had been an agreement to admit Ukraine to NATO, that would have made tomorrow’s summit pretty uncomfortable.
Adam L Silverman
@ian: The Putin aligned oligarchs have managed to get and keep their hooks into a very large portion of the Ukrainian government from elected to appointed officials at the national, regional, and local levels. This is where a great deal of the problem is.
Adam L Silverman
@PaulWartenberg: They haven’t even started the MAP process. Because they haven’t successfully done the things needed to become eligible to begin the MAP process.
There is little that the US can do other than be supportive. The US can’t go in and root out Ukraine’s Putin aligned oligarchs and the politicians, officials, and judges that they own. The US can’t go in and root out Ukraine’s Putin aligned oligarchs and the private sector people they own.
As for when it will happen, do NOT hold your breath. Ukraine is a very, very, very long way off. Despite what looks like a lot of progress since 2014, they’ve made almost no progress in the technical requirements that would indicate they are eligible to enter the MAP process since the 2008 decision in Bucharest.
Old School
For the front page post yesterday, there was a fair number of comments asking for a new post to discuss Ukraine and a fresh post was needed anyway.
Ohio Mom
Hey Adam,
As long as you are here, one thing I’ve been wondering about is what happens when Putin dies?
I realize he’s fairly young and looks hale and hearty, and five thousand other things could happen in the mean time, but if a bus ran him over tomorrow, how would that change things, if it does? Is there someone just behind him who’d be just as bad?
Thanks.
WaterGirl
Nothing in my front page post yesterday repeated or perpetuated the misunderstanding about Ukraine. Ukraine was in the news, and the whole thing was sorted out before we even got to comment #5 in yesterday’s post.
Subsole
@Ohio Mom: I wonder about this, too. I expect secrecy and misdirection from a former KGB man. But has Putin even signalled a successor? Has he taken any steps to groom one? Or does he suffer a bad case of Alexander Syndrome?
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: That was my impression as well.
Anoniminous
“…it might behoove the news media to actually bring a subject matter expert with them on these trips who can explain what the technical language regarding NATO means”
Don’t be silly. Our Infotainment Mediums are in the business of selling advertising not presenting accurate information and thus informing their customers.
sdhays
Here’s an idea – maybe national news organizations should hire and send journalists who are at least semi-competent subject matter experts on foreign policy to big important foreign policy conferences. Maybe they shouldn’t need to bring along a subject matter expert to talk to because they’ve actually developed a personal command of the issues themselves.
Or they can just send an average WH stenographer who will regurgitate the first hot take from someone at the bar and then order another round of tequila or whatever. Yeah, that sounds better. //
trnc
Before Adam answers, he may need to know if you’ve just gotten a bus driver’s permit.
Ruckus
@Ohio Mom:
@Subsole:
I’d bet that vlad has zero plans for a successor. He’s 69 years old, likely gets far better healthcare than most in his country, has more than enough money to last a lot of lifetimes, very good personal security, and yes he could keel over tomorrow but that seems unlikely. A bus is very unlikely to run him over, he seems to go out of his way to not be exposed to danger of any kind. People like him, who screw over millions for his own satisfaction and gains are unlikely to be all that concerned about succession.
Mike in NC
It used to be that countries interested in NATO membership first join the ‘Partnership for Peace’ (PFP) program. In 2003 I was in a multinational NATO exercise in Scotland where a company of Ukrainian naval infantry participated via PFP. I don’t know if PFP still even exists.
Adam L Silverman
@Ohio Mom: I have no idea what, if any provisions, have been made for a successor. If he’s designated one and that person is strong enough to hold things together, not much will change. I expect, however, that things will devolve into chaos. Quickly.
Ruckus
@Anoniminous:
They don’t think of the readers as customers. Their customers are the advertisers.
jonas
Ukraine is very poor, very corrupt, and not terribly politically stable. I doubt it’s going to be in shape to join NATO for quite some time, which is of course exactly how Putin wants it.
randy khan
So what you’re saying is that NATO already agreed to admit Ukraine?
Actually, I kind of like the slow-rolling process by which countries can be told they will be admitted to the club, but won’t be until they get in shape. It creates good incentives while binding the country to the alliance.
Captain C
@Adam L Silverman: As per the cycle of Russian history which alternates between strongmen, sometimes stagnation, and then chaos.
germy
NATO’s slogan “If you fuck with one of us, the rest of us will fuck with you” is the same philosophy as the Hell’s Angels.
Ruckus
@randy khan:
No, they are not being admitted. They have a long way to go to get into the process to see what they need to do to start the admission process.
Ruckus
@germy:
Where did you think they got it?
Mike in NC
Putin will never give up the territory (Crimea) he grabbed in 2014.
germy
@Adam L Silverman:
Putin seems like the type who specifies in his will that he wants to have his corpse frozen in hopes of some future resuscitation.
Adam L Silverman
@randy khan: The EU did the same thing with Turkey. Then every time Turkey got through all the hoops the EU came up with a new list of hoops to jump through. This contributed to where things are today with Erdogan. Turkey, in both the EU and NATO in the mid 00s, might not have wound up where it is today.
So it sounds nice in theory. And I’m not sure there’s a better approach, but it can have negative consequences.
Adam L Silverman
@germy: Call me when the Hell’s Angels get nukes.
trollhattan
Russia would Freak the Fuck Right Out if Ukraine were to join NATO. I presume that’s a hornet nest they do not wish to whack at this time.
Omnes Omnibus
@trollhattan: It is a very distant carrot that is being dangled.
germy
germy
zhena gogolia
@Ohio Mom:
Looks hale and hearty???? No, he doesn’t.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl:
I agree with you.
Gin & Tonic
Good post, Adam.
Chris Johnson
@Adam L Silverman:
They can have Trump. :D :D :D
germy
sdhays
@germy: That part about Senator Risch is rich. He was super pleased to have an actual Russian asset in the White House and wanted to keep him there in perpetuity, but NOW he’s all “Why is the Biden Administration coddling Russia??!!111!??”
Fuck that guy.
germy
@sdhays:
His only motive is to criticize whatever Biden does.
germy
Ohio Mom
Zhena:
Maybe I am confusing Putin with the actor who plays him on SNL :-P
Adam:
Thanks. Chaos would have been my uneducated guess.
trnc:
Believe me, I am a terrible driver of small cars, not a chance I’d get a commercial license.
Gin & Tonic
@germy: I’d love to imagine how they’d refer to some random dude with his feet on Putin’s desk.
lowtechcyclist
@trollhattan:
Indeed. Until yesterday’s kerfluffle, I was under the impression that (other than the Baltic republics whose independence we’ve continuously recognized since the period between the World Wars) we weren’t offering even a route to NATO membership to any of the states of the former USSR.
germy
@Gin & Tonic:
Deceased.
sdhays
@germy: It won’t happen, but it would “hilarious” if these interviews resulted in goading fed-up Russians to storm the Kremlin.
“Russian State TV was showing off how awesome attempted coup’s are, and I thought, ‘why not give it a try here, too?'”.
Gin & Tonic
@lowtechcyclist: Georgia is in the same position as Ukraine.
sdhays
@Ohio Mom: I feel like there’s a “let the pigeon drive the bus” joke here, but my brain isn’t working so well today.
zhena gogolia
@Ohio Mom:
He looks really puffy, like he’s on steroids. At some point his face changed dramatically. I know some of this is botox/plastic surgery, but there’s something else going on.
germy
@sdhays:
There’s been lots of street protests, but no storming of the Kremlin yet (as far as I know).
I assume such an action would be met with immediate and lethal force.
Omnes Omnibus
@sdhays: We might have different ideas of hilarious. Mine usually doesn’t include bloodbaths.
zhena gogolia
@germy:
Even street protests have become virtually impossible. They’re cracking down on ordinary people (searching their apartments and bringing them in for a night or two), and word gets around so most people are afraid to go out now.
Ken
@germy: Does the Russian word being translated as “colorful” have some other meaning, perhaps “on payroll” or “agent”?
IIRC there was a similar multiple-meanings issue where TFG was bragging that the Russians called him “stylish” but the sense of the Russian word was more like “tacky” (or some such words, in roughly that part of the semantic space).
sdhays
@Omnes Omnibus: That was why I put it in quotes. I’m definitely not advocating such an action and agree the result would almost certainly be horrific. Just commenting on how they could be sending the wrong message to their own public.
germy
@Ken:
Good question. Maybe someone who understand the language could clarify for us.
Amir Khalid
@germy:
It’s not often remarked upon, but an international alliance is in some ways a lot like a gang. And I’m not even kidding.
Fair Economist
@trollhattan:
My interpretation is this is a threat. “Keep screwing with our elections and we’ll fast-track Ukraine into NATO.”
Ken
@Amir Khalid: The science-fiction novel And Having Writ… has aliens landing on Earth in 1908 (in our timeline, the Tunguska event was them crashing). There’s an exchange between two of them along these lines:
HISTORIAN: “It is their alliances that make the war inevitable.”
CAPTAIN: “I don’t see that. I’ve been in bars on lots of planets where I was glad to have some friends to back me up.”
HISTORIAN: “I seem to recall you coming back from some of those bars pretty beaten up.”
CAPTAIN: “Well, that was when the other guy also had some friends…. Oh.”
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Omnes Omnibus: Squish. //
randy khan
@Adam L Silverman:
Yeah. You shouldn’t be moving the goal posts unless there’s a really good reason to do it. I imagine that the real reasons with Turkey weren’t ever mentioned.
Adam L Silverman
@randy khan: The French leadership at the time, specifically Chirac, didn’t want them in the EU. So he kept moving the goalposts.
Ruckus
@Adam L Silverman:
How do you know they don’t?
Ruckus
@sdhays:
Locals know what would happen to anyone in that type of assembly. Being shot with a machine gun does tend to end any dispute.
rp
There was no confusion on this site, so I’m not sure I get the point of this post.
Ruckus
Vlad wants/ needs Crimea as a sea port, every other port that he has or could steal is way, way far north, and almost unusable a good part of the year.
Ken
@sdhays: @germy: @Omnes Omnibus: @zhena gogolia: The Russian people do have the historical example of the Odessa Steps, but is that more or less likely to make them engage in a hopeless stand?
Adam L Silverman
@Ruckus: Yes, there are 52 nukes that have gone missing since 1950. My personal belief is Cheryl has been collecting them and has, at least, 40 in her private collection.
It is possible that the Hell’s Angels found the one missing in Georgia from the training flight out of Tybee Island. Though given it is Georgia, I think it is more likely the Southern Baptists have it.//
THIS WHOLE RESPONSE IS SARCASM!!!
Ruckus
@Adam L Silverman:
Seems plausible, I’m thinking your response is self protection……
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Adam L Silverman:
Don’t judge Adam, everyone needs a hobby, some folk collect stamps, Cheryl…
Ken
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Also, if I had to choose one of the front-pagers to trust with 40 nuclear weapons, Cheryl would rank near the top of the list.