Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

There are more Russians standing up to Putin than Republicans.

Since we are repeating ourselves, let me just say fuck that.

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

It is not hopeless, and we are not helpless.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

The press swings at every pitch, we don’t have to.

My right to basic bodily autonomy is not on the table. that’s the new deal.

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

You’re just a puppy masquerading as an old coot.

Republicans don’t lie to be believed, they lie to be repeated.

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

Hot air and ill-informed banter

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty. ~Thomas Jefferson

She burned that motherfucker down, and I am so here for it. Thank you, Caroline Kennedy.

I don’t recall signing up for living in a dystopian sci-fi novel.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

Give the craziest people you know everything they want and hope they don’t ask for more? Great plan.

Jesus watching the most hateful people claiming to be his followers

One way or another, he’s a liar.

The “burn-it-down” people are good with that until they become part of the kindling.

You are here: Home / Open Threads / Here’s the Skinny from Boots on the Ground in AZ

Here’s the Skinny from Boots on the Ground in AZ

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Hello Friends,

We are excited to share important insights from Worker Power’s recent voter report in Arizona. Between July 6th and August 9th, our canvassers engaged with 61,000 voters and conducted a comprehensive survey of 9,008 individuals to better understand voter priorities and preferences, especially in light of President Biden’s exit and Vice President Kamala Harris’s entry as the Democratic Presidential nominee.

The report included a diverse group of voters: 46.6% Latino, 9.7% Black, and 36.9% white and the following key findings emerged:

1. Economic Concerns Dominate Voter Priorities

Our report revealed that economic issues, particularly the cost of living, are the primary concern for voters across all demographics. Over half of the voters (53.7%) cited economic issues as their top priority when Biden was the nominee, and this remained high (49.3%) after Harris became the nominee. This concern transcended race and vote propensity, highlighting the universal importance of economic stability in the upcoming election.

2. Strong Support for Reproductive Freedom

Reproductive freedom emerged as a crucial issue for Arizona voters, with 78.5% indicating it is very important to them. This issue is especially significant among Latino voters, with 88.1% considering it important. Reproductive freedom was also the second most cited issue, following economic concerns, underscoring its pivotal role in voter decision-making.

3. Rising Support for Kamala Harris

The report showed a notable increase in support for Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee compared to Joe Biden. When Harris became the nominee, the percentage of voters “definitely” or “probably” supporting her rose to 72.1%, compared to 55.2% for Biden. This suggests a positive shift in voter sentiment towards Harris, with fewer voters considering third-party candidates or remaining undecided.

4. Ruben Gallego’s Strong Senate Support

Our findings indicate overwhelming support for Ruben Gallego in the U.S. Senate race, with 84.6% of reported voters planning to vote for him. This robust backing reflects strong Democratic engagement in Arizona, which is crucial for success in the upcoming elections.

5. Continued Engagement Needed Due to High Levels of Undecided Voters

While support for Kamala Harris is stronger than it was for Biden, significant numbers of voters, especially those with lower voting propensities, remain undecided. Among high propensity voters (80+ score), 82.3% support Harris. However, for all other voter propensity ranges, support drops to a maximum of 57.6%, with undecided voters ranging from 27.6% to even higher percentages in lower propensity groups.

This report highlights the critical need for Worker Power to continue engaging with voters, especially those who are lower-propensity and Democratic-leaning, to boost their participation in the upcoming election.

Listening to Voters Report – from Worker Power

Pssst – data geeks, there are charts and everything!

And in case the spirit moves you.

Totally open thread.

Reader Interactions

94Comments

  1. 1.

    BR

    I am wondering what the campaign is up to in Arizona — last visit Harris made to AZ was August 9th. Are we still pushing hard in Arizona? If I have limited money to donate is that where to do it?

  2. 2.

    chemiclord

    I find it really hard to believe that there are terribly many “undecided” voters at this point, and I think it’s safe to assume that the vast majority of “undecided” voters are actually Trump voters who are too afraid of being shamed publicly to say so outright.

  3. 3.

    BR

    @chemiclord:

    I buy that there are undecideds. Trump is always underwater in favorability. His base loves him and nobody else really does. He has done well when he drives up his base numbers and drags down the favorability of his opponent. Harris is (now) well liked but also relatively unknown to low-info voters who pay no attention to politics. So there’s a pool of people who don’t really like Trump and have vague positive feelings about Harris but don’t know whether they’re going to bother to vote and if so for whom.

  4. 4.

    Soprano2

    I saw a Harris ad while I was watching Colbert last night. Do you think that was an ad that aired nationwide? I can’t imagine they’re spending money in Missouri.

    Sounds like good news from Arizona.

  6. 6.

    West of the Rockies

    @chemiclord:

    I wonder the same thing.  I see very few Trump signs where I live locally and regionally (which is very different from ’16 & ’20).  Are Trumplings now just as committed but ashamed?

    I got an email from Bob Casey yesterday with a dire warning about Republicans registering thousands more voters in PA, and how we’ll be slaughtered there.

    Are Republicans really some massive silent wave?

    I just don’t believe it.  On the other hand, I much prefer strategic worrying of Democrats to assure a blue wave.  Complacency would be terrible.

  9. 9.

    Geminid

    @West of the Rockies: Senator Casey won reelection in 2018 by over 600,000 votes so he’s probably not to worried about his own prospects. But Pennsylvania has swung back and forthat the Presidential level so it’s in play this time. In fact, Trump almost has to win the Keystone State so Republicans are going all out there.

  10. 10.

    Geminid

    @West of the Rockies: I read the Wikipedia article about the 1976 election and one thing that stood out was that the Hispanic share of votes was only 2%. It was 10% in 2012 and 13% in 2030 2020, a 30% increase in 8 years.

  11. 11.

    WaterGirl

    @BR: I think your best bet for Arizona would be one or both of the organizations we are supporting.

    The native vote is more than the margins of victory in previous elections.

    And Worker Power is knocking on over 1,000,000 doors this fall.  And they are focused in key districts where there are US House seats that can help us win the House and statehouse seats in the AZ House and Senate that could give Dems a majority instead of the Republicans who now hold the majority.

    Both organizations are going to have a huge impact.

    I think either organization is a way better use of your dollars than donating to Harris.

    Actual people have way more impact on voting and even knowledge of candidates than ads do.  Most people walk out of the room or mute the ads or fast forward, but they certainly don’t watch the ads.

  21. 21.

    MattF

    Got my Maryland ballot in the mail. Will fill it out (with especially happyvotes for Harris, Walz, Alsobrooks, and Raskin) and mail it off tonight.

  22. 22.

    Marleedog

    @Geminid:

    Hispanic share of votes was only 2%. It was 10% in 2012 and 13% in 2030, a 30% increase in 8 years.

     

    This is a remarkable change to the demographics of the country. They are poised to be a considerable political power, and the party that best accomodates the concerns of the Hispanic population will be the winner going forward.  One good reason to invest in Texas.

    Blue Texas = R.I.P G.O.P.

  24. 24.

    Al Rennick

    Only $17,265 raised so far. The $30,000 goal should have already been reached. This is pathetic and inexcusable.

    If Trump wins, he’ll end democracy as we know it. WTF is wrong with you jackals? You all need to wake the fuck up and get this goddamn goal met today! Failure is not an option!

  30. 30.

    zhena gogolia

    George Conway has done some ads with women accusing DJT of sexual assault:
    George Conway, the ex-husband of former Donald Trump aide Kellyanne Conway, is helping bring attention to the sexual assault claims against the former president as he seeks a second term in the White House.

    On Wednesday, Sept. 25, the attorney’s political action committee launched ads featuring two of the Republican presidential nominee’s sexual assault accusers.

    The first ad centers around former PEOPLE reporter Natasha Stoynoff, who claims she was assaulted by Trump during a December 2005 trip to Mar-a-Lago to interview him and his wife, Melania Trump, for the magazine — something he previously said had “no merit or veracity.”

    “At one point, Melania went upstairs to change her clothes for the next photo shoot, and Trump said to me, ‘I want to show you this beautiful painting, this beautiful room.’ He leads me to this room, pushes me against the wall, and starts kissing me forcefully,” she says. “I tried to push him. He kept coming back at me.”

  32. 32.

    Baud

    @Bruce K in ATH-GR: I was intrigued.

    oh burrito

    (wrapped in

    foil

    and dreams)

    you are

    a universe

    of flavors

    (beans and rice

    and cheese

    and spice)

    a symphony

    of taste

    (in my hands

    you dance)

    oh burrito

    (you are

    more than

    a meal)

    you are

    a moment

    (wrapped in

    joy)

     

  35. 35.

    Another Scott

    Go Blue AZ!!

    Meanwhile, more of the essential, brilliant analysis and color of the House GQP from TheHill.com:

    But adding insult to injury, Johnson was forced to change the process for bringing the legislation to the floor after Republican opposition threatened to sink a procedural vote. That has forced Johnson to bring the bill up Wednesday under a suspension of House rules, cementing the GOP’s need for Democratic help.

    Despite those setbacks, many Republicans are holding back attacks on Johnson, recognizing the difficult situation he is in.

    “Speaker Johnson’s doing his best with like, a zero-vote majority, you know, and fighting against this huge machine that is D.C. in a presidential election year,” said Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.), who was the lead sponsor of the six-month continuing resolution that failed last week.

    Higgins, nonetheless, said he will likely vote no on the three-month stopgap.

    Wednesday’s vote does raise questions about Johnson’s prospects of remaining atop the House GOP in the next Congress. He already survived one attempt to oust him from the Speakership, spearheaded by Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), after winning the gavel following last year’s whirlwind Speaker saga.

    Members overwhelmingly recognize that Johnson’s political future will be most impacted by whether Republicans win the House, and by how many seats. But his handling of legislative matters such as spending — which animate GOP antagonists in the House the most — is also important.

    One of the biggest fears of hard-line conservatives — and why they were pushing for a six-month timeline — is that the Dec. 20 shutdown deadline will tee up a massive end-of-year omnibus spending package that will be loaded with priorities of the lame-duck Biden administration.

    Johnson on Tuesday promised that the House would not approve a “Christmas omnibus.”

    “We have broken the Christmas omni, and I have no intention of going back to that terrible tradition,” Johnson said, also ruling out any kind of “minibus” that funds great gobs of government by combining several of the 12 regular appropriations bills.

    “We don’t want any buses,” he added. “We’re not going to do any buses, OK?”

    But some Republicans have doubts that Johnson can fulfill that promise.

    (Emphasis added.)

    [ groucho-roll-eyes.gif ]

    🤡 🤡 🤡 🤡 🤡

    Sensible people like buses and recognize their importance, and the dangers of standing in the way of them.

    Obligatory – The Replacements – Kiss Me On The Bus (2:54)

    Forward!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  38. 38.

    rikyrah

    Be A King (@BerniceKing) posted at 9:43 AM on Wed, Sep 25, 2024:
    “An injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.” #MartinLutherKingJr

    The execution of #MarcellusWilliams, an innocent man, is a devastating moment that reflects the grave injustices still present in our legal system. We mourn his loss and extend our prayers to his family. Let’s also channel our grief into a renewed commitment to justice. In the spirit of Kingian Nonviolence, we are reminded that “Nonviolence seeks to defeat injustice, not people.” This principle urges us to transform systems that fail to offer fairness and redemption.

    My father and mother opposed the death penalty because they believed in the value of every human life and the possibility of redemption, even for those who have made grave mistakes. I, too, agree. The outrage over this execution is justified, but let it fuel our efforts to change a system that too often seeks vengeance over justice.

    We must work harder to ensure that every person is treated with dignity and that justice is grounded in love, not retribution.

    Call to Action: Let’s stand together to demand a fair and humane justice system that truly values life.

    t.co/hMiLq03Uq6
    (https://x.com/BerniceKing/status/1838952480832401910?t=zi_FtXcguhejap0AxBblzQ&s=03)

  40. 40.

    rikyrah

    The Great Gig in the Sky (@thegreatgig8) posted at 3:44 PM on Tue, Sep 24, 2024:
    Nancy Pelosi just snapped at Jake Tapper for asking about Trump’s claims of Kamala’s “cognitive problems.” This clip doesn’t show the setup and clip that was played, but Tapper deserved it. Well done, Nancy. t.co/8gqrQn6XIY
    (x.com/thegreatgig8/status/1838680895101739090?s=03)

    TruthBeholden (@TruthBeholden) posted at 4:01 PM on Tue, Sep 24, 2024:
    This is how it’s done. Nancy Pelosi is spot on, and Jake Tapper should be goddamn embarrassed for even trying to give this narrative any air time.
    (x.com/TruthBeholden/status/1838685260743348456?s=03)

  47. 47.

    rikyrah

    Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) posted at 9:20 AM on Wed, Sep 25, 2024:
    Judge Tanya Chutkan has rejected an effort from Trump’s lawyers to push off — until after the election — consideration of the federal election interference case.

    Chutkan says that, by Thursday evening, the special counsel should file his presentation about why the Supreme Court’s immunity decision should not lead to the dismissal of the charges brought against Trump.
    (x.com/kylegriffin1/status/1838946636652773466?t=hk8hireC4rYoDqetflK4Jw&s=03)

  50. 50.

    rikyrah

    Rob the Genius 🔴⚫🟢 (@rbonne1) posted at 9:29 AM on Wed, Sep 25, 2024:
    His whole strategy was to use the DC media to trick people into thinking he was gonna win regardless, with the hope that it would depress Dem turnout and the bandwagon voters would side with him.
    (x.com/rbonne1/status/1838948904894623891?t=0qCddEXFlT_LMm8uiKP0ZQ&s=03)

    DFW Sports 4Life (@Kennymack1971) posted at 9:36 AM on Wed, Sep 25, 2024:
    That’s why Trump’s whining about Biden dropping out. The media was able to hide him and focus on Biden’s age and other assorted BS and Trump was coasting. He can’t do that with Harris and he’s losing.
    (x.com/Kennymack1971/status/1838950612282523702?t=FaAWYpBsi9xgVLLDi26LYQ&s=03)

  53. 53.

    West of the Rockies

    @Baud:

    Might I suggest this revision?  “beansandriceandcheese”…

    How do you like your burrito now, Mister Death?

  57. 57.

    West of the Rockies

    @Baud:

    Might I suggest this revision?  “beansandriceandcheeseandspices”…

    How do you like your burrito now, Mister Death?

  58. 58.

    Geminid

    @Another Scott: Between retirees and the members losing seats, 30 to 40 Republican members won’t owe the Speaker a dam’ thing. They’ll throw Johnson under the Omnibus and head for the airport.

  59. 59.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    @West of the Rockies: @chemiclord:

    Yes, there are undecided voters. Basically, they don’t really like Trump. But up until recently, their wages weren’t keeping up with the rise in housing costs and other inflation (some still haven’t regained ground with the huge spike in housing costs). They unfairly blame Biden for that. They were better off 2016-2019.  They unfairly credit Trump with that. They aren’t sure if they can trust Kamala. However, positive hopeful vibes have a better chance of reaching these people. The Trump approach of fear mongering is making them leery though.

  60. 60.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @chemiclord:

    I think it’s safe to assume that the vast majority of “undecided” voters are actually Trump voters

    When these people are studied, it doesn’t work out that way.  In this case, I find it easy to believe that there are a whole bunch of people who are disconnected from voting, don’t support Trump, but are debating whether they’ll vote at all or if Harris could ever have their vote.  Trump’s support never seems to move.  We want to scoop up as many of the rest as possible, because alas the American public are the least engaged voters ever.

  61. 61.

    lowtechcyclist

    Opinion: Trump is now hawking $100 coins. Why can’t he focus on running for president?
    Opinion by Nicole Russell, USA TODAY

    A slight improvement to a headline I just saw.

    The answer: dementia, DUH.

    Why can’t pundits focus on this obvious problem, and write 192 columns demanding that he quit the race?

  67. 67.

    Hungry Joe

    POSTCARD UPDATE

    Got COVID booster Monday, so I was wrung out and sluggish yesterday. Rallied in time to do five (5) postcards, all to Arizona. Haven’t been keeping a running total on these because they’re Ms. Joe’s, and I’m just helping out while I await my next batch.

  72. 72.

    Mousebumples

    @Hungry Joe: way to go! I did 40 last night during the Geeks and Nerds 4 Harris call last night. Another 60 to write, and then I have 300 that need addresses and stamps…

  74. 74.

    BR

    @rikyrah: ​

    Absolutely wild that hackers are sitting on a goldmine of Trump leaks and apparently cannot find a single journalist in the US willing to publish them.

    At this point if someone does get their hands on the leaks and want to write about them, they need to do what law enforcement does which is called “parallel construction” — talk about what was found but don’t talk about where it came from and instead come up with a different plausible or actual source. That way the confidential source of information doesn’t get revealed.

    Because we all know that if some third tier progressive media outlet gets the hacked data and releases it as is, the next two weeks will be the national press blaming Dems for treating Trump so unfairly.

  77. 77.

    Starfish

    @lowtechcyclist: Trump’s Presidential runs have all been scams to enrich himself. If he sees that he is losing, he is going to wring every last dollar out of his campaign that he can. If it violates campaign laws, it is not like anyone ever holds him accountable for anything.

    This dude has been stealing everything that is not nailed down for his entire lifetime.

  78. 78.

    VFX Lurker

    @Mousebumples: way to go! I did 40 last night during the Geeks and Nerds 4 Harris call last night. Another 60 to write, and then I have 300 that need addresses and stamps…

    You rock. I wrote 10 postcards last night for Sherrod Brown during the same Geeks & Nerds for Harris call. Will write more later tonight.

  81. 81.

    Geminid

    @Starfish: I’ve run into Republicans for Harris on social media. Ukraine and Nato are sticking points for many of them.

    These folks seem like regular voters, but they don’t seem very interested in crossing over on more than a temporary basis. I mention the last because some Democrats worry that they’ll stay and make the Democratic Party more conservative.

  84. 84.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Soprano2:

    there are too many instances of him misspeaking or thinking people who are dead are still alive or mixing people up.

    I can cover most of this with Trump being stupid and incurious, which he always was.  The signs of dementia are more how incoherent he’s getting.  Not just the stumbling over words that he does almost constantly.  People do that, although it’s a bad sign when it gets worse.  He drifts off into tangents mid-sentence, and they’re weird, hard to parse tangents.  His filter is also almost gone.  In 2016 I guarantee he would have known better than to pull the Haitians Eat Dogs thing in a debate.  He would have saved it for his rallies and stuck to his mob talk “There are a lot of bad people” and “People are saying their town is flooded with crime” deniable hate.  Even in 2020 he knew better.

  86. 86.

    frosty

    @Hungry Joe: ​ I’ll chime in:
    Running total: 35 mailed to CA-47
    I’ve got 15 more, then time to get more addresses. I have (gulp) 100 more blank ones ready to work on.

  89. 89.

    Soprano2

    @Frankensteinbeck: I agree, but different types of dementias have different symptoms, which is something I didn’t know before my husband got sick. You could have a pretty coherent conversation with my husband about current events because he still listens to the news and understands what’s happening. OTOH, yesterday when I picked him up for his dentist appointment he said “where are we going?” even though I told him before I left yesterday morning that he had a dentist appointment. Then, when I told him I got my car back (from the infamous “rodent ate your engine harness” incident) he said “when was your car gone?”. He didn’t remember me telling him about it at all. I think with TCFG both things are possible symptoms of dementia, or something else that’s wrong with him.

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