Well this is ungood:
Iran destroyed AN/TPY-2 THAAD radars at Al-Ruwais Air Base in the UAE and Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, while satellite imagery confirms the AN/FPS-132 phased array radar in Qatar was also damaged, complicating missile defense across the region. #MiddleEast
— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) March 3, 2026 at 5:28 PM
Anyhow, I told Amy! I’d answer her question from last night tonight.
your reports regularly note that Ukrainians are regaining ground now (phrased as regaining more than they’ve lost, so I gather that there’s actually movement in both directions on what have become somewhat static lines). I heard (a little less than four years ago now) that Putin and Russia, failing in that initial push, had already lost the war, even if they could continue the war until exhaustion stopped them. Is this evidence of a threshold being crossed? Has the tide turned? Gah, clichés: will the boys be home by Christmas? Seriously, is this an indicator that the outcome of the war is, in the end Ukrainian victory? I’m not sure that you accept the premise that, failing to win an overwhelming victory, Russia cannot win an attempted occupation against a hostile population, but I found the argument compelling, which made the past three and three quarters years all the more tragic. Do you have an opinion on that score that you’re willing to share?
Sure, the boys will eventually be home by Christmas. Just like in the 30 and 100 year wars. More seriously, what you’re finally seeing is some of what has been moving below the waterline or below the ice. Since early 2023 people – from pundits to think tankers to intel weenies – have been arguing that the conflict was frozen, would remain frozen, and that meant that Russia had won and Ukraine should negotiate terms and cut their losses. The reality, as I’ve explained here and as I explained in my professional work, is that the conflict was NOT frozen. Rather, there was a lot going on that wasn’t being reported, that wasn’t going to show up on satellite imagery, and it would eventually become apparent in a year or two. A lot of what we’re now seeing is the result of the quiet hard work done by the Ukrainians. This includes work by the HUR, both in operations we’ve seen and in their work with partisan undergrounds in Russian occupied areas. It includes all the weapon and counter-measure development. It includes the continuous development and redevelopment of the Ukrainian way of war.
Here are some of tonight’s outgoing Ukrainian fires:
HERE WE GO 🦅🦩🚀 DroneBomber
— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 1:55 PM
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
In the Spring, the Russians Are Not Going to Reduce the Number and Cynicism of Their Attacks; They Are Preparing to Target Critical Infrastructure in the Same Way – Address by the President
3 March 2026 – 19:44
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Today, I chaired a meeting of the National Security and Defense Council – a special session attended not only by central government officials, law enforcement, and the military, but also by representatives of the regions. All our regions and the largest cities were present. For each of them a specific plan has been prepared – covering energy, critical infrastructure, and logistics – for the next winter. Unfortunately, Kyiv was the only exception – the capital proved unprepared. But we will overcome this challenge as well. In fact, for all regions there is now one common task for the next winter and for the immediate period as well: in the spring, the Russians are not going to reduce the number and cynicism of their attacks; they are preparing to target critical infrastructure in the same way. Of course, we got through this winter – some communities, some of our cities were able to achieve better results in protection and in supporting people. Others failed completely, as we saw. Now we must take all the best experience from the regions, detailed tasks for the military and for our diplomacy, and implement two components of the nationwide strategy: to prepare for strikes in the near term and to prepare for the next winter so that there are no catastrophes or problems like those we faced this winter. Alternative generation and heat supply solutions, additional energy sources, real protection – taking into account the scale of all threats – all of this must be ensured. I thank every region, every mayor, and all Ukrainian communities that have already presented their resilience plans. I thank the Government for its work this winter and for the right approach to preparing for the next one. There are things we must do at our own level in Ukraine – specific work – and the biggest tasks lie with the communities and the military. There are tasks regarding air defense and the construction of protective structures. It is also clear what we need to agree on with our partners for the next heating season. I thank Naftogaz, all our Ukrainian energy companies, every repair crew, as well as Ukrzaliznytsia and the State Emergency Service of Ukraine – everyone who worked to help people get through this winter. Ukraine received the necessary imports – both gas and electricity. We are increasing the relevant capacities. Financial coordination with partners was also properly established. This must continue. Of course, due to the war with the Iranian regime, there are now challenges both regarding rising energy prices and the volume of air defense equipment supplies needed by us in Ukraine. But we must have adequate responses to this as well – all of us in the state must work together to ensure that.
I spoke with Ursula von der Leyen, in particular about the situation surrounding Iran and all the challenges. We also discussed our bilateral issues with the European Union. Ukraine is fulfilling its obligations, and we expect the same fair and sincere attitude toward Ukraine – toward the interests of our people.
Today I spoke with leaders of countries currently under attack from Iran – the President of the United Arab Emirates and the Amir of Qatar. We will continue this diplomatic engagement with the broader Middle East and Gulf region. Ukraine stands in solidarity with all those who are resisting the spread of war and violence. For decades, the Iranian regime has invested in destroying the lives of its neighbors and others wherever it could reach. It was on that very foundation that they became accomplices of Russia in the war against Ukraine. Every “shahed” drone in Ukrainian skies proves that the Iranian regime must be held accountable for its attempts to destroy lives and kill people. It is essential that those who defend life prevail in this confrontation. At the level of our teams – the Ukrainian team, the teams of the Emirates and Qatar, and other states – we will determine how, together, we can provide stronger protection for life. Ukraine’s expertise in countering “shahed” drones is currently the most advanced in the world, and these drones represent the primary challenge in that region as well. It is clear why so many requests are directed to Ukraine. However, any such cooperation aimed at protecting our partners can only proceed without diminishing our own defense capabilities here in Ukraine. Russia’s war against Ukraine continues, Russian strikes continue, and protecting Ukrainian lives remains our first priority. Thank you to everyone who stands with Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
President Zelenskyy also held a press briefing today. Here’s the video:
Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, First Deputy Prime Minister/Minister of Energy Denys Shmyhal, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov, and Deputy Prime Minister for Recovery/Minister of Community and Territorial Development Oleksiy Kuleba gave a briefing to the press after the National Security and Defense Council meeting. Here’s that video:
Georgia.
Day 461 of daily, uninterrupted, nationwide protests in Georgia.
— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 12:57 PM
A criminal case has been launched against Baia Margishvili for tearing up case materials during a trial. She is charged with contempt of court. The hearing concerned road blocking under GD’s repressive law. The Criminal Code article carries up to 2 years in prison.
#TerrorinGeorgia
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 10:27 AM
What a powerful mural at Ilia State University in Tbilisi: Ilia Chavchavadze—19th-century writer, statesman, and one of the architects of modern Georgian political identity—walking toward a door painted as the EU flag.
One EU star is missing; Ilia holds one bearing the Georgian flag. 🇬🇪🇪🇺
— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 1:29 PM
Georgia’s legitimate President Salome Zourabichvili comments positively on the Opposition Alliance launched yesterday:
“This strategy should become the basis of the joint fight of political and societal forces — to ensure the change of the regime.”
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 2:53 AM
The EU:
🇪🇺❗️🇺🇦 France, Germany and other EU countries oppose accelerated Ukraine’s accession. Among the arguments are the risk of rollback of reforms after accession and corruption — Reuters.
Ukraine’s aspiration for accelerated accession to the EU by 2027 has encountered stiff resistance from member states.
— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 4:48 PM
EU fears that in the event of accelerated accession, Ukraine and other countries may stop implementing reforms, such as the fight against corruption.
Kachka suggested that Ukraine could at least sign an EU accession treaty next year, even if ratification and other integration steps take longer.
— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 4:48 PM
“Why does Putin think he can outlast us?”
— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 1:33 PM
The Mediterranean Sea:
In the Mediterranean Sea, off the coast of Libya, a sanctioned Russian LNG tanker Arctic Metagaz from the Kremlin’s shadow fleet is burning 😎🔥
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 2:30 PM
/2. Arctic Metataz current location.
More details by Times Malta:
timesofmalta.com/article/russ…— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 2:13 PM
Germany:
A small recap from last week’s Cafe Kyiv in Berlin, where people arrived not to drink tea or coffee, but to show values they stand for.
#makerussiapay remains our top priority on the way towards Ukrainian victory!
— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 6:53 AM
🇩🇪 Merz: The Russian giant today stands on feet of clay.
And that is why we want to come to solutions here, but also solutions that involve the Europeans.
We are not prepared to accept an agreement that is negotiated over our heads.
— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 4:32 PM
Sweden:
“Justice must be served. Cheaters must be held accountable.”
Sweden’s biathlon team has been awarded bronze from the 2010 Olympics — 16 years later.
At Vancouver 2010, Sweden finished 4th in the men’s relay, behind Russia’s bronze. Russian Evgeny Ustyugov (a member of that team)
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 1:07 PM
was later found to have used a banned substance, leading to his disqualification and Russia’s medal being stripped.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 1:07 PM
Poland:
🇵🇱☢️ Tusk: Poland does not want to be passive when it comes to nuclear security in the military context. We will seek to prepare Poland in the future for as much autonomy as possible in this area.
— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 1:24 PM
Italy:
Italian PM Meloni accused Russia of shattering international law and causing global chaos, stating that the “explosive situation” in the Middle East is a direct consequence of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 8:44 AM
The 2026 Paralympics:
🇪🇺 11 countries and the EU are already boycotting the opening of the 2026 Paralympics over the admission of Russians and Belarusians under their own flags!
— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 5:17 PM
Germany joined the boycott today. Earlier, Ukraine, EU officials, as well as Estonia, Canada, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Finland, Croatia and the Czech Republic announced such a decision.
— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 5:17 PM
The US:
TRUMP ON RUSSIA AND UKRAINE: “There is this tremendous hatred between Putin and Zelenskyy. I’ve seen a lot of hatred in my life, but I think this is about top scale.”
Putin hates us because we refuse to die quietly. Zelenskyy hates Putin for trying to murder us all and erase our state.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 1:03 PM
They are not the same.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 1:03 PM
What Trump left out here is that he also hates President Zelenskyy because of the events leading up to Trump’s first impeachment. And because President Zelenskyy is not a physical coward.
🇺🇸🇺🇦 I support Ukraine, but a lot was given away. Biden gave away a significant part of it senselessly. As you know, when I transfer ammunition, they pay for it. The EU pays. Then they can dispose of it as they see fit — for example, transfer it to Ukraine, — Donald Trump.
— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 4:40 PM
Back to Ukraine.
President Zelenskyy recently sat for an interview with Corriere Della Serra. Here’s some excerpts:
CORRIERE DELLA SERA: If you had guarantees from your allies with their troops on the ground, would you be ready to abandon all of Donbas?
ZELENSKYY: First of all, the Russians don’t want foreign troops in Ukraine. And I believe Europe should be more firm on this point.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 9:41 AM
I don’t see why Moscow should decide which troops are stationed on our soil.
Second, I will never leave Donbas and the 200,000 Ukrainians who live there. Why on earth should I do that? Because Putin imposes it as a condition for peace?
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 9:41 AM
And will he immediately impose new demands? No, I’m not having it.
Besides, our best defense strongholds are here; if we withdraw, the Russians will have a free hand towards the center of the country.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 9:41 AM
CORRIERE DELLA SERA: Orbán demands that you restart the Druzhba pipeline. Will you do it?
ZELENSKYY: The Russians bombed Druzhba several times and then attacked our technicians who were repairing it. Why on earth didn’t Orbán accuse the Russians of the bombing?
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 8:00 AM
I explained it to Fico: the pipeline is destroyed, to repair it, a ceasefire is needed, and this must be made clear to Putin.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 8:00 AM
The Ukrainian ground robotic system Droid TW-7.62 is armed with an FN MAG machine gun and uses automatic target acquisition to engage and shoot down FPV drones.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 1:26 PM
🇺🇦🤖 Ukrainian “Droid TW-7.62” shot down Russian drone!
— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 2:40 PM
At present, more than 70% of Russian Shahed drones attacking Kyiv and its surrounding areas are being intercepted specifically by interceptor drones.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 8:35 AM
In the morning report of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a +1 destroyed ship appeared.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 4:25 AM
Analysts from the channel “Crimean Wind” suggest that it may refer to an Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate – a carrier of “Kalibr” cruise missiles. It was identified from satellite images after the attack on the port of Novorossiysk.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 4:25 AM
🤬 Russia executed 337 Ukrainian prisoners of war in 2025, — Lubinets
🙏 Over 95% of released defenders were subjected to systematic torture. The data is confirmed by the UN.
#NoPeaceWithoutJustice 🇺🇦
— The Ukrainian Review (@theukrainianreview.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 1:19 PM
Babin Yar:
OTD in 2022 we bombed the Babi Yar holocaust memorial.
We are denazifying Ukraine by bombing holocaust memorials and killing holocaust survivors.
Ukraine ofc deserves this for provoking us by putting their border near our army.
— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 12:35 PM
Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast:
Russia struck homes in Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast, with a drone, destroying them and injuring five people, including an 8-year-old girl.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 12:47 PM
Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast and Russian occupied Crimea:
According to Ukraine’s General Staff:
▪️ An S-300 air defense radar was hit near Tytarivka (Luhansk region). ▪️ A “Sopka-2” air surveillance radar and a 39N6 “Kasta-2E2” radar were struck in Crimea.— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 11:28 AM
Oleshky, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:
In the occupied town of Oleshky on the left bank of the Kherson region, another humanitarian catastrophe is unfolding, where approximately 6,000 residents still remain.
www.ukrinform.net/rubric-socie…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 5:59 AM
Russian troops are not providing any assistance to the local population, while at the same time keeping the town under blockade without gas, electricity, medicine, and with a severe shortage of food. Any attempts to deliver humanitarian aid end in the deaths of civilians.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 5:59 AM
Krasnodar Krai, Russia:
Russian air defense systems in action during the recent attack on Russian facilities in Novorossiysk.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 5:18 PM
Rostov Oblast, Russia:
A large fiery trail observed in the sky over Russia’s Rostov region. According to local Russian sources in the Rostov region: “As a result of the UAV attack, unfortunately one of our Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) assets was destroyed. Eternal memory to the fighters.”
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 4:43 PM
The large fireball which was seen in the sky over Russia’s Rostov region has turned out to be a downed Russian military helicopter.
A source associated with Russian military helicopter aviation wrote:
“The sky takes the best… Eternal flight. In the fifth year, friendly fire hasn’t gone anywhere.”— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 5:04 PM
It appears the Russian helicopter reached the ground only in the form of many small, burning fragments.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 5:16 PM
Volgograd Oblast, Russia:
💥👀 Russian air defense worked in Volgograd.
— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 3:31 PM
Volgograd, Russia 💥💥💥
— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 3:47 PM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos today.
Here is some adjacent material.
😻🌸 The sky is blue, the mood is cheerful, and only this red-haired beauty knows the secret to true happiness: find a warm brick, stretch out comfortably, put your face in the sun, and forget about all your problems! It’s spring!
— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 8:02 AM
Open thread!
Westyny
Thank you, Adam.
Chetan Murthy
Adam, you’ve been daily educating us on this development/redevelopment, so for some of us, it’s difficult to remember what used-to-be, and how it was replaced by what-is-now. Recently Perun had a video where he summed up the changes in the last four years, and while sure, it wasn’t educational for me about the current state, nor (really) about the state at various points in the last four years, -even so- it was educational because I felt like he -explicitly- tried to explain what had changed, and how alien today’s landscape would appear to a Russian (or Ukrainian) in early 2022.
youtube.com/watch?v=RXmQIkV3SzU
I thought it was quite effective, and really drove home the extent to which Europe needs to ensure Ukraine wins, b/c Ukraine is the most important guarantor of Europe’s freedom.
Also, SKC’s skeet “more than 70% of Russian Shahed drones attacking Kyiv and its surrounding areas are being intercepted specifically by interceptor drones” caused me to muse about a deal that Ukraine could make with the Gulf monarchies (and Li’l Donnie): for each Shahed that Ukrainian drone operators shoot down in the Gulf monarchies, the US and its allies shall forthwith transfer 2[1] PAC-3 interceptors to Ukraine.
OK, OK, just a little brain-fart, I’m sure it ain’t happenin’.
[1] 2, not 3, so the Gulf monarchies make a “profit” by getting Ukraine to shoot ’em down, natch.
Adam L Silverman
@Westyny: You’re welcome.
Gin & Tonic
There you go.
lashonharangue
Thanks Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: How long have I been saying that one of the major follow on effects of Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine would be nuclear proliferation?
Adam L Silverman
@lashonharangue: You’re welcome.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: How long have I been agreeing with you on that?
Chetan Murthy
@Adam L Silverman: A long time, Adam. Macron’s announcement today that France would partner with other EU nations to base French nuclear-capable warplanes was another example of the same phenomenon.
Martin
They would immediately agree to it and then never deliver.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: As long as I’ve been saying it.
Chetan Murthy
@Martin: No lie detected.
Traveller
Adam, as an apparent Dog person, (see Rosie), you post an awful lot of pictures of cats…your spring cat was…deeply satisfying today, so thank you.
2ndly, have you ever posted a picture of Rosie? If you did I maybe missed it, but still, it does not seem entirely inappropriate to ask you to post a picture of Rosie all things considered.
If you wish of course. Best Wishes, Traveller
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Incentives further reinforced by Israeli-US wars against Iran, & the long standing aversion to any kinetic moves against the DPRK.
OTOH, while nukes can deter an all out invasion, they do not deter greyzone warfare, terrorism or local clashes, as Israel, Pakistan & India have found out.
Traveller
Dear Adam, What the heck, as a follow on here is a gift link to a NYT article I just saw, Nice Message, especially for you.
Get a Dog, Live Longer?
nytimes.com/2026/03/03/well/pet-longevity-health-benefits.html?unlocked_article_code=1.QlA.9yAZ.PwXu…
Best Wishes, Traveller
Chris
@Adam L Silverman:
Quite frankly, I’m shocked that no nation has gone nuclear since North Korea in (I think?) 2002. You’d think the one-two-three punch of Iraq, Libya, and Ukraine (and that was the first invasion) would’ve encouraged a few more governments to take precautions.
YY_Sima Qian
I think it is important to note the geographic & operational environment in which Ukraine’s drone defense has been established.
Ukraine’s layered defenses rests on geographic depth, which provides ample warning to interior targets, at least. It also requires an “all of society” mobilization. It only has limited fixed & rotary wing aircraft for drone defense.
Israel could emulate some of that geographic depth versus Iranian drones, by enlisting the GCC states & Jordan to serve as additional layers, & by employing its & partners’ substantial air forces against incoming drone waves. (As long as Israel has not completely alienated these countries.)
Geography is far less kind to the GCC states, w/ only the narrow Persian Gulf separating them from Iran. Most things worth hitting are close to the Gulf coast. They have to forward deploy their air forces over the Persian Gulf to try to shoot down the drone. Any drones make land fall & it’s point defense at the numerous target sites.
Geography is even less kind to Taiwan, being a relatively compact island, & just about everything worth hitting is on the narrow strip of land on the west coast, facing the mainland. Worse, the PLA can launch drones in qty. 2 orders of magnitude higher than Iran, & sustain the rate almost indefinitely, & that is the bottom end threat amidst the expected hail storm of long range rockets, ballistic & cruise missiles, & air launched stand off glide bombs. Nothing Taiwan can place in the Taiwan Strait to serve as picket is survivable, & nor does the RoCAF & its bases have much of a life expectancy.
The PRC does have the geographic depth & the industrial & organizational capacity to implement most of the lessons from Ukraine, indeed w/ greater resources in every aspect (except possibly organizational). The People’s Militia is still actively maintained in every location, & every local government maintains armament & mobilization departments, which are vestiges of the People’s War era. All modern residential compounds have underground parking garages that double as air raid shelters built to the appropriate codes. The China Meteorological Bureau alone has an arsenal of ~ 8K anti-aircraft artillery pieces (used to seed clouds to produce rain and break up hail storms). Sensors (IR cameras & phased array radars), & comms/datalink to integrate them together, are dirt cheap. The Ukrainian drone defense system is rather reminiscent of how the Mao era PLA envisioned surviving Soviet/US air superiority during the Cold War, & how the Deng/Jiang/early Hu era PLA envisioned defending against US cruise missiles post-Cold War.
Defending the invasion fleet & the supply train in the Taiwan Strait from drones will be much more challenging. The Chinese Maritime Militia can provide hundreds of armed fishing trawlers in the Strait to serve as pickets & point defense, especially if they have heavy machine guns or small caliber cannons on stabilized platforms.
Some of Ukraine’s lessons are universally applicable, such as using small drones to crash into larger ones, perhaps the only economically sustainable counter. Mini guided missiles & laser guided rockets, too.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Parfigliano
How come Taiwan doesn’t have nukes? Surely they have the knowledge. They cant be dumb enough to count on assurances from us that we have their back.
YY_Sima Qian
@Parfigliano: The PRC will attack as soon it gets a whiff of Taiwan having a nuclear weapons program, the PRC has thoroughly penetrated Taiwanese military, government, academia, political parties, organized crime. There is no place on Taiwan to test. & the US shut down the ROC’s clandestine nuclear weapons program in the ’80s. (Israel, South Africa & the ROC/Taiwan, all pariahs facing isolation in their own way, were helping each other’s nuclear weapons development programs on the down low.)
The vast majority of Taiwanese want to maintain the status quo of de facto independence, & that means not tempting fate by crossing any of the PRC’s long established bright red lines: no WMDs, no de jure independence, no formal military alliance w/ other nations.
YY_Sima Qian
BTW, the AN/TPY-2 THAAD radar is a road mobile platform on trailers. What the sat images only show the buildings where they might have been stored in peace time being struck, but no evidence of burned out trailers that would suggest the radar itself being struck.
I highly doubt the radar was left in storage as the shooting started.
OTOH, one of the 3 faces (the one facing Iran) of the fixed AN/FPS-132 radar installation in Qatar was definitely struck & damaged. A very costly loss.
YY_Sima Qian
This is coming from someone working at the AEI & Anduril:
The last point requires rebuilding the US defense industrial base & reforming/rationalizing US weapons procurement. Multiple admins. have failed at this task over the past 2+ decades, & Trump 47 is by far the most incompetent of them all.
YY_Sima Qian
On another note, Merz sat there quietly in the Oval Office, while Trump next to him went on & on about sanctioning Spain because Spain would not allow the US the use of its bases to support (in any capacity) the war against Iran. Not a word of protest, however diplomatically couched.
Chetan R Murthy
the consensus of many NATO countries (as expressed by Rutte) remains that the US is an essential military backstop. I can’t fault Rutte or Merz for not pissing off their protector (howsoever wayward). I would hope that they combine that with making that protector superfluous …. soonest.
YY_Sima Qian
Trump finally waking up the the crisis in US munitions stockpile? (click through the X link for the rest of the article, the article is paywalled on the Reuters website):
Aziz, light!
Sorry Dustin lemme stop you right there.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan R Murthy: Understandable course of action, but myopic IMHO.
Their supine postures are causing cognitive dissonance among the European voters, undermining their credibility, & giving encouragement to the far right reactionaries that MAGA is already boosting per officially stated strategy (NDS & NSS). Losing elections to the far right is the most likely vulnerability for European liberal democracies.
Carlo Graziani
It seems significant to me that the reports of battlefield progress started arriving soon after the Russians lost access to Starlink.
Chetan R Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: I agree with everything you wrote. But there’s also the danger that if they speak clearly, they’ll break, the alliance with the US, and that will invite Russian aggression. Unlike some other commenters here, I’m pretty worried that Russia can inflict tremendous damage on NATO forces, and I suspect that that is what’s keeping Rutte and others in check.
They’re transfixed on the horns of this dilemma, eh?
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan R Murthy: Among the European leaders, Rutte is the one I have the least confidence that he is playing some kind of 3D chess to manage Trump. Ursula von der Leyen is fairly explicit about what she is doing (making concessions to Trump to delay a full rupture), but not much to show for it. I think Starmer knows the score but is feckless. Macron also knows the score, talks a big game, but never delivers & is dead man walking politically, w/ the next election seemingly the RN‘s to lose. Merz definitely knows the score, but he suffers from the pan-European malaise of paralysis, lack of imagination, unwillingness to make truly tough choices.
Case in point, the war in the Persian Gulf has yet again laid bare Europe’s vulnerability in its dependence on hydrocarbons, vulnerabilities that Trump is clearly not interested in protecting Europe from. The solution is accelerating the renewable energy transition & electrification of transportation. But, the EU has been delaying the rules mandating EV adoption to protect the automakers, who are just not competitive (& won’t be for a while). At the same time, they fear importing Chinese EV, solar panels & wind turbines because of “dependence”, equating it w/ the former dependence on Russian gas & the current dependence on US gas. No, the PRC is selling capital goods, that is owned & controlled by the customer once purchased, which will generate electricity nearly cost free for years & decades to come. That is qualitatively different from purchasing consumable hydrocarbons from Russia, the US or the ME.
Europe should be hardheaded & clear-eyed when dealing w/ the PRC. but there are ways to structure deals to limit dependence on PRC goods, cap their import, while promoting inward investment into local production & mandate tech. transfer. It might also occur to them that affordable PRC capital goods can promote aspects of European re-industrialization, just as expensive European (& American & Japanese) capital goods promoted Chinese industrialization.
No, the European leaders are mentally stuck, because their deeply ingrained mental models are ill-fitted to the reality we live in.
Jay
As always, thank you, Adam.
Traveller
Very late to the thread, but of interest, as I wrote to a former Naval Officer traveling toward that area:
The War Zone Expands to Sri Lanka…And Your Nightmare I Suppose…
….war without limits, I suppose, and this was an enemy ship, an Iranian Destroyer with full compliment, but far, far from the active combat zone. Sunk by a single torpedo from a US Submarine.
If you are an Iranian Sea Captain I would imagine that you put into the closes port to wait out this war…to avoid mass death of your crew, and even those few survivors, bobbing in a sea of fire and the black night of being far out to sea with a forlorn hope of surface rescue.
As a moral/law of the sea question…What was the US submarine’s duty to surface and pick up survivors?
(answer, pretty compelling I would think, though the US Submarine did not do so)
The Iris Dena, described as a destroyer, was sailing outside Sri Lanka’s territorial waters when it sent a distress signal at 5:08 a.m. local time, the Sri Lankan foreign minister, Vijitha Herath, told Sri Lanka’s Parliament. Sri Lanka responded, sending naval ships and the air force to the endangered vessel.
Sri Lankan officers rescued 32 critically injured sailors, who were taken to the Karapitiya Hospital, in the southern coastal city of Galle, Mr. Herath said.
A search was continuing for the rest of the crew, a spokesman for Sri Lanka’s navy said. Officers found bodies floating in the water where the ship went under.
Traveller
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Thank you Adam. To think, Americans and Iranians are both dying just to distract from the Epstein Files.
Europe may think of the USA as its ultimate military back stop, but if you and Dustin Walker are correct, America may not have the armoury to play that role assuming it even wants to. Which is wild considering what Ukraine has pulled off while fighting a full scale war.
Butter Emails!
@Traveller: I’m fairly certain that as a rule submarines don’t surface to assist their targets. Doing so would render them vulnerable. It’s also not as though they have the facilities to help anyway.
Butter Emails!
@YY_Sima Qian:
It genuinely amazes me that this has been allowed to happen given the enormous sums of money dished out to the MIC. One would think that part of the massive price tags for these munitions would be running multiple production lines at low levels of output to enable rapid scale up or maintain current production levels if one or more lines were disrupted.
YY_Sima Qian
@Butter Emails!: It’s all gone to different grifts.
I am also starting to believe that corruption in the US military procurement process makes the PLA look tame (Xi has purged the majority of the former & serving senior PLA leadership over the past 3 years, ostensibly due to corruption in the PLA’s military built up). Except the corruption in the US MIC is legal, institutionalized, & thoroughly normalized. Same w/ the lack of accountability (see the number of flag officers fired & punished for the Fat Leonard scandal).
Traveller
@Butter Emails!:
I have to disagree. Actually there is a duty:
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Key Legal Frameworks and Principles
Universal Duty to Rescue: International maritime law requires all ships, including warships and submarines, to assist persons in distress, regardless of their nationality or status.
“Without Serious Danger”: The duty is not absolute; it is an “obligation of means,” meaning assistance must only be rendered if the submarine can do so without jeopardizing its own safety.
Wartime Requirements (Geneva Convention II): During armed conflict, Article 18 of the Geneva Convention (II) requires parties to take all possible measures, without delay, to search for and collect the shipwrecked, wounded, or sick after an engagement.
_________________________
Unlike most of my liberal brethren, I am okay with killing people in war, (though there is an enormous personal cost to the person doing the…let’s be honest here…killing), but I am scrupulous in maintaining that enemy combatants (soldiers just like you are) that are Hors de Combat must be protected, even at some moderate/strong risk to yourself.
Best Wishes, Traveller
wjca
There would only seem to be a risk to the sub’s safety if the Iranians had another warship in the area. Which, if they did, would have been sunk, too.
Chris
@Butter Emails!:
The U.S. military is a jobs program and a Viagra pill. Only in a very distant third place is it an institution for fighting and winning wars.
The fact that out of five major wars since 1945, we’ve won exactly one of them, and this causes no alarm, loss of faith, or urgency to reform it among the political classes or the general public kind of gives the game away.
Paul in KY
@Butter Emails!: In this regime, they would only surface to machine gun the survivors.