Worth a read- apparently they only have a 1,000 man army. Even with a no-fly zone, unless the coalition becomes much more involved, it sounds like Qaddafi can play a long-term game of attrition, which is probably why we are attacking Qaddafi’s ground forces. I simply have no idea what the end game is here, and there are some reports the intervention saved 100,000 lives, and the UN reported several weeks ago that an additionally 100,000 people had fled.
Reader Interactions
264Comments
Comments are closed.
Dave
I think they have a few more people than that. The article says they have 1,000 trained personnel in their army. Which I think would mean that they have a larger “armed rabble” that exists outside the army. Your modern version of serfs with pitchforks assisting the knights on horseback.
The Moar You Know
And here’s the part that gives me a rash about the whole thing, John: neither does anyone else, up to and including Obama, Cameron, and Sarkozy.
We just dug the hole a little bit deeper, and now the Dems own it just as much as the Republicans ever did.
SteveinSC
Zbigniew Brzezinski was on Scarface this morning with his usual incisive commentary and HE admitted to being unclear on what the objectives are, but said that finally he came down on the side of support for the humanitarian reasons. I agree with him, but just barely.
Just Some Fuckhead
There are around 3 million adults of fighting age in Libya. It would be nice to know how many are on one side, how many are on the other side, and how many are on the other other side.
This is why it’s generally a really bad idea to get involved in civil wars.
eemom
No way. You sure had me fooled — I like totally thought you knew exactly what the end game is.
Gus
Sorry to be off topic on an important thread, but this is too good not to share. Michele Bachmann to form exploratory committee
Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal
@Gus:
she wants to find out where the poop comes from?
SteveinSC
Zbigniew Brzezinski’s main point was and I am paraphrasing here, it is the Palestine/Israel conflict that condemns us to forever put out the fire on its periphery not at the core. Our balls are nailed to the floor of a burning house by two things: Oil, which we won’t give up and AIPAC which owns Congress.
Incoherent Dennis SGMM
This does not bode well. To echo JSF at #4, I’d really like to know who is following whom over there and what their long-term goals are. Absent that, the US is buying a very expensive pig in a poke.
PaulW
The entire population of Libya is 6 million. That’s like the total population of South Florida to Orlando where I’m from. I’m not surprised there are small numbers of organized rebels. My question is, what size is Qaddafi’s army? How much of it is made up of mercs? I’m seeing about 120,000 total. By comparison, Egypt has 485,000 active personnel, with those fit for military service around 15 million. Egypt could send in one division or even a brigade, backed with volunteers, and could even things out on the battlefield…
retr2327
Off-thread, but potentially of interest, given recent events in Wisconsin and elsewhere:
CNN et al. are chattering madly about the fact that two planes had to land in Washington D.C. (Reagan airport, IIRC) without air traffic control assistance b/c the lone operator on duty at the time (after midnight) had fallen asleep. Cue much outraged commentary about how having only one operator on duty is unacceptable, etc.
Anyone want to bet that union work rules used to require a minimum of 2 operators on duty, before St. Reagan broke the union?
The Ancient Randonneur (formerly known as The Grand Panjandrum)
Eleven dimensional chess doesn’t have an end game you silly goose.
Valdivia
@Gus:
Saw that. Really made my day!
Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal
as long as our objectives are to blowed shit up, and the rest of the un does the hard part, i can support it, once it goes, if it goes, beyond that point, fuck it let q’daphe ne q’daphe, the whole world ain’t gonna get free anytime soon, money and more living supplies are limited.
Joe Beese
http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/middleeast/2011/03/22/down-the-rabbit-hole/
Dave
@Joe Beese: That is most over-hyped, breathless piece of shit I have ever read. “on a path to make even Donny Rumsfeld and Tommy Franks look good”??? Really??
General Stuck
It was an emergency situation, and virtually impossible to analyze with any accuracy, and still is hard to get a handle on which way things are going. Stories like this are somewhat encouraging though, but who knows what the overall equation is.
Ronc99
John,
What happened to candidate Obama? The President one is certainly NOT the guy I saw at a rally in Indianapolis, Indiana in October 2008, just two weeks before the election.
He told us that the public option was the way to go. That he would make sure all loopholes for the rich offshoring their profits would be closed. Said the rich tax cuts would be ended by him. That he would close Gitmo. That he would be the most transparent President EVER. That wars of choice were wrong. That the Unitary Executive would be ended. That torture was to be held accountable. All he talked about is what he was going to do for Main Street.
All I’ve seen is a Wall Street HO and a bitch for the military industrial complex.
Why is it considered *conspiracy theory* that perhaps we’ve had a military coup over this nation and that Gen. Petraeus is president, not Obama?
Obama is doing nothing for Main Street but screwing us. Is he really worth it to Americans that still support him to vote to reelect him? I don’t think so. He lied to me. He was a phony tool of Wall Street. The perfect storm in 2008. Eight years of abuse by the Bush administration juxtaposed up against Obama’s POPULIST promises and poof, Wall Street wins again with Obama.
Within 24 hours, Obama flipflopped on the No Fly Zone in Libya. I was admiring his steadfastness, opposing Hillary’s push to act on Libya. After all, it was Hillary’s former top aide at State that went on “Meet The Press” to slam Obama for not acting. Along with, Bill Clinton telling the media he supported a No Fly Zone. Not to hard to connect those dots.
But why no communication to the American people? I understand why none to Congress. See Unitary Executive that Obama promised to end via his selection of Dawn Johnsen to head OLC, whom he allowed to wither away and drop in the end.
Obama has been CAVALIER AS HELL on the Libyan issue. Sarkozy announces *we* are going to war with Libya. Obama takes in an 18 round of golf and then jets off to South America. WTF! How can any American STILL support Obama???
Incoherent Dennis SGMM
@retr2327:
PATCO earned what they got from Reagan. They, along with Airline Pilots Association and the Teamsters dumped the Democratic party in the 1980 election and threw their support and endorsements to Reagan rather than Carter. You’d think that the few remaining unionized workers would by now understand that you don’t vote for Republicans.
mb
I got up this morning, took a shit, got an appointment later. But I have no idea what the End Game is.
When the fuck have we EVER known what the End Game was for anything? I’m pretty ambivalent about the whole Libya thing but I’m sick of people bawling about End Games and Exit Strategies as if there were such things that had more validity than your Daily Horoscope.
Corner Stone
@Joe Beese:
Even if we clusterfuck Libya 10X over, it can never, ever approach the Iraq clusterfucking.
General Stuck
@Ronc99:
Love the smell of ratfucking in the morning. Smells,,,, like…fucked rats.
Omnes Omnibus
@Ronc99: Thank you for sharing your feelings.
Corner Stone
@mb:
You’re absolutely right, and I agree. It’s asinine to commit your military resources and national reputation and plan out where that commitment ends.
Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal
@Ronc99:
its amazing that two weeks before the election, right wingers were still asking what obama stood for, and claimed that he refused to define himself, now in retrospect you seem to be saying you knew it all along.
you’ve “flip-flopped” on the basis of your attacks on obama? though i suppose you should get some credit for at least knowing something at some point, but that is only exceptional because you are conservative.
Corner Stone
@Incoherent Dennis SGMM: Apologies, I usually don’t ask about handle changes but I seem to have missed something. Why are you now “incoherent”?
Joe Beese
@Ronc99:
Candidate Obama was a performance by the man you now know as President Obama.
Hope this helps.
Ronc99
General Stuck,
Stick that rat up your fucking ass, punk!
joe from Lowell
@Dave:
Indeed. And the “attacks” that have been happening since the air strikes started have been by the armed protesters, while the military personnel that defected have been organizing their own strike. They’re right not to disperse their force into piecemeal support of the irregular infantry, as that would mean they wouldn’t have enough force in any one location.
So, the question is, what do they do?
Dave
@Ronc99: Well now that’s just plain rude.
General Stuck
@Ronc99:
witty devil, you
impressive
Incoherent Dennis SGMM
@Corner Stone:
Our good friend burnbesq got his knickers in a twist over something I posted and on a subsequent thread accused me of incoherence. I just thought that it would be funny to forthrightly adopt the title. Truth in advertising and all that.
Ronc99
FPFWT,
I think YOU need to look in the mirror. You will see *your* conservative with Obama smiling over you!
SteveinSC
@Ronc99:
Fixed. The only reason I see to continue to support him is SCOTUS replacements. Otherwise its Bush Lite or President Harold Ford II. But they don’t like to read that in this place.
Corner Stone
Gaddafi’s former “Justice Minister”? Isn’t that the basics for essentially every Monty Python skit?
IOW, that guy knows how to bury the bodies.
Dave
@joe from Lowell: If I was part of the defector military with the rebels? Have the other rebels keep up the pressure all over the place. Then I’d try to communicate with the UN forces so that an attack on a besieged town near Bengahzi, like Ajdabiya, would *just so happen* to coincide with UN strikes on Khadaffi’s forces.
Dave
@SteveinSC: yeah, we tend to not like reading stuff like that because it’s a bunch of bullshit.
Corner Stone
@Incoherent Dennis SGMM: Yes, I believe I saw that, where he accused you of eating babies and ad hominems against She Who Must Not Be Criticized.
Didn’t put it together as that’s the kind of uptown insult he uses all the time.
Gracias.
Omnes Omnibus
As far as end games go, are we talking about the end game for the operation as a whole, the endgame for Libyan rebels, or the endgame for the US involvement? If it is the endgame for the US involvement, It is my understanding that the US was going to help establish a no fly zone and then step back into a support role where it provides refueling capabilities, satellite imagery, and the like. I could, however, be wrong.
The Moar You Know
@Incoherent Dennis SGMM: An inconvenient truth. My father was a career airline pilot, and those guys were/are as straight up Republican as it gets. They all thought Reagan firing the controllers was awesome sauce, even though all of the controllers were Republican like them and most of them had served in the military with those same pilots.
ALPA remind me a lot of the AMA (which is a de facto union) self-styled Galtian overlords (who don’t even get paid that much for the years of specialized education that either field requires) who have nothing but utter contempt for the folks who handle the luggage, draw the blood, clean out the planes, mop the floors, or keep planes from smacking into each other, and don’t see any connection AT ALL between working schmucks like those and working schmucks like themselves.
ppcli
@Incoherent Dennis SGMM: That fact about PATCO has always struck me as the essence of the remark from (IIRC) H.L. Menken, reduced to pure, crystalline form: “Democracy is the theory that the people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”
That should be on the currency and all Federal buildings.
JGabriel
SteveinSC:
I don’t know what to think. I agree, marginally, on the humanitarian objective, but it’s worrisome that we have no idea who might replace Qaddafi.
So I’m completely on the fence, and, frankly, this white picket up my ass is beginning to chafe.
.
Ronc99
Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal called me a conservative *after* posting the following neocon crap, just for questioning Obama? UNREAL!!!
Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal:
“as long as our objectives are to blowed shit up, and the rest of the un does the hard part, i can support it…”
Personally, I think you’d have to be a Wall Street investor/investment banker OR profiteering off the military industrial complex (neocon haven) in order to support Obama, today. I don’t give one rat’s ass about Obama’s judge appointments because I don’t trust his judgement, pardon the pun.
Dave
@Ronc99: Dude, take a Prozac and relax. And no, you don’t have to be an arms-maker or Wall Street employee to support Obama. Plenty of us middle-class folks think he has done a good job overall.
joe from Lowell
Wanting to defer to the UN is “neocon?”
You keep using that word. I don’t think it means what you think it means.
Joe Beese
Oh, and Politicat scores this one…
FULL FLOP
Ronc99
Dave,
I forgot *misinformed* Americans, sorry!
Alex S.
The endgame: US troops leave and someone else does the rest.
The endgame of the civil war: Gadhafi leaves or dies. Post-war Libya will be a political mess until a new order is established. The new rulers, democratically elected or not, will almost certainly be more pro-Western and more pro-civil rights. I could imagine a fragmented political landscape like there is in Lebanon, with the same strong european influence but with less Hezbollah.
However, to get there the rebels are in need of more defections and civil uprisings in Gadhafi’s cities.
The Dangerman
This is why we should drop to our knees and be thankful that there are adults in charge; Bush would have fucked this up and McCain would have fucked this up worse (Palin would have ended the world by now). Now, yes, perhaps Obama should have had Congress’s consent like Reagan had in 1986 when he took shots at Libya. What’s that, you say?
No one knows what happens post-Kaddafi. So, is the Devil we know worse than the Devil we have no clue about? We’re about to find out. Let’s all get a grip and watch it play out…
Incoherent Dennis SGMM
@Corner Stone:
No worries. burnbesq contributes a lot to the dialog around here when he’s addressing legal matters. He just goes off the rails once in a while, much like the rest of us.
Dave
@Ronc99: Yeah…that’s it. We’re just a bunch of cattle waiting for the Progressive Purity Brigade to lead us into the light.
Ronc99
There is NO difference between a liberal interventionist and a neocon, sadly!
You punks on this site that cheerlead for Obama’s mistakes, are no different than the Republicans who did same with the Bush administration. Shame on you all!
Mnemosyne
@Dave:
That’s our Joe all over.
Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal
@Ronc99:
i didn’t say i like it, if it were up to me we would cut the military budget by half, and take half of the savings, put it on the debt, and the other half towards education, infrastructure, and other “entitlements”.
but i know saying it,and meaning it, as president, will get you dead in a week.
so, round all the way back to the real world, i was defining the most u.s. involvement i can live with. in other words, where the line is for me…
good luck next time you try to find the context for a remark, sorry it didn’t work out.
Ronc99
Dave,
Nah. You are just an idiot that doesn’t have the cajones to be a Republican is all. You require Republican-Lite to complete you. Meow!
Ronc99
FPFTW,
You pidgeonholed me as a conservative and lost. Apology not accepted!
Alex S.
@Joe Beese:
Politifact is wrong. Obama’s letter to Congress specifically mentions a multilateral response while Obama, in 2007, spoke of unilateral authorization.
joe from Lowell
@Ronc99: I’d say the threads on this subject demonstrate that the interventionists in this debate are a great deal more informed than the opponents, who are basing their opinions mainly on an ideology about interventions in general, rather than on information about events in Libya pre-and post-intervention. Hence, all of the silly comparisons to Bush and Iraq, and the ludicrous claim that striking Khaddaffy’s forces as they close in on cities, rather than allowing them to go all Carthage on those cities, is an affront to humanitarian values.
“Don’t tell me it works in practice! It doesn’t work in theory!”
4tehlulz
>There is NO difference between a liberal interventionist and a neocon, sadly!
Oh look, it’s the new meme from the foreign policy establishment.
David Broder’s eternal punishment is the knowledge that he could have rolled this one out if he held out just a bit longer.
joe from Lowell
@Ronc99:
…says the guy who thinks that wanting a quick exit and a handoff to the UN is the sort of thing neoconservatives want.
Dave
@Ronc99: yeah…supporting health care reform, labor rights, reproductive rights, the wealthy paying more and renewable energy has me RIGHT ON THE EDGE of being a Republican. I guess supporting a liberal interventionist theory that has it’s roots in that raging conservative FDR is going to push me over the top.
geg6
@Ronc99:
So what’s your solution, skippy? Who’s the “progressive” that’s gonna win in 2012 and get your
unicornslegislative agenda passed in the Congress? Please, provide us with your wisdomy insight. I’m dying to hear it.Just Some Fuckhead
@Ronc99: Can you dial it back some? You’re at an 11. We need you around a 4. Thanks in advance.
Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal
@Ronc99:
lol, you have only reinforced my assertion.
The Moar You Know
@SteveinSC: Huh. Wonder why you chose that example.
Mnemosyne
@Ronc99:
Because only an idiot would think that the guy who was busted down from Commander of US Central Command to only being in charge of Afghanistan due to his subordinates’ fuck-ups is secretly running everything!
Of course, that’s pretty much the definition of a conspiracy theory — deciding that the facts that mitigate against your theory being true are only more proof that it really is true.
joe from Lowell
Whoa.
When you’ve got the guy who regularly seconds Joe Beese telling you to dial it back…you need to dial it back.
Dave
@geg6: Don’t you know? It’s Kucinich/Nader 2012!
gene108
@Ronc99:
Ted Kennedy got brain cancer and died in the summer of 2009. He was pretty much laid up in a hospital bed from most of the time he was alive in 2009.
Imagine how things would’ve gone in the Senate if Kennedy was in charge of pushing HCR through, rather than the combination of Dodd and Baucus (sp?).
Obama can’t fire a senior Senator and he couldn’t run rough shod over a senior Senator from his own party. In an ideal world there’d be a public option, but the stars didn’t line up for it.
If they did Ted Kennedy wouldn’t have gotten brain cancer.
4tehlulz
@gene108: Obama caused his brain cancer AND he was in charge of Martha Coakley’s campaign.
cyntax
I know it seems like this Libya situation just jumped out of the woodowork at us: emergency, whocoodanode, etc. But as Galrahn over Information Dissemination points out, these military assets took weeks to get in place, so even though we feel blind-sided by this, the Administration wasn’t:
So when people ask what the exit plan is, it’s not at all realistic to say the Administration is just reacting to some unforeseen events on the ground. Given the planning it takes to initiate something like this, it seems very strange to suggest that’s the only planning they’ve done. Now, why they’re choosing not to communicate more fully is another question.
Lupin
As an expat living in France the news we get here are somewhat differently slanted from what you seem to be getting.
To provide context, according to polls, 72% of French people are opposed to the intervention in Afghanistan; however 66% are in favor of the intervention in Libya.
The determining factor I think was last week, the 17 I think, when Gaddafi went on TV to brag about shooting down civilian airliners and/or ships in the Mediterranean. (Remember this is the guy who’s guilty of the Lockerbie bombing.) People here took that threat rather seriously.
The end game as far as I can tell from the Minister of Defense all the way down to the local Café is crystal clear: Gaddafi leaves or dies; nothing else will do.
I don’t think people care that much about what happens afterward. (Maybe they should but they don’t.)
For some reason the Minister seemed rather optimistic this morning. Maybe they’re on to something? I wouldn’t be surprised if there were some backdoor negotiations to encourage G to leave.
joe from Lowell
@4tehlulz: Brck O’bamm cilled mah puppeh!
Corner Stone
@Joe Beese:
What I love about this is you named it “Politicat” and then titled your link “Full Flop”.
I hovered over the link just certain it was going to be to a icanhazcheezburger website derivative.
Because that would’ve been awesome to have a pic of a large feline doing a full frontal flop.
Needless to say, I was quite disappointed to see Politifact’s tl;dr assessment. We all already knew it was a flip.
fasteddie9318
The endgame is clearly that the underpants gnomes overthrow Gadhafi and then everyone profits. I agree that this is the most worrisome aspect of this whole situation.
@joe from Lowell: You’re talking about “deferring” to the UN as though the US were just sitting on the sidelines waiting for the UN to come to a decision. We played a leading role in pushing it in this direction. It’s obviously not “neocon,” but it’s not as though the US was a passive party swept along with the tide of global opinion.
gene108
@4tehlulz: Some might believe it, but I think the fact Kennedy wasn’t able to do squat for the HCR bill in the Senate is one reason it got stalled in the Senate and the Fox “News” inspired “summer of rage” took place.
The House passed a bill with a public option, before the summer recess. Dodd’s committee had a bill with a public option ready for consideration. Baucus, who got stuck with handling HCR, because Kennedy wasn’t able to, dithered.
Just sayin’, if it was Kennedy, who would’ve headed up things in the Senate, rather than a reluctant Baucus, who was forced to do it, I think things would’ve been different.
Of course this doesn’t absolve Obama for not going to North Dakota or wherever Baucus is from and using the bully pulpit to demand the citizens of that state recall their Senator and replace him with someone, who will do the bidding of Jane Hamsher, so could have a public option.
soonergrunt
@The Moar You Know:
Yes. One thing missing here that gives it that extra special flavor–The pilots in the Air Force are all officers as everybody knows, but the ATC personnel are all, with the exception of the very top, enlisted personnel. The officers who are involved in ATC might not even get into the tower on a daily or even weekly basis. There’s definitely some class-warfare in that whole APA supporting Reagan against PATCO thing.
Alex S.
@4tehlulz:
Well, if I was upstaged by an uppity urban senator I’d develop brain cancer, too.
/Obama derangement syndrome
Corner Stone
@Alex S.:
Please tell me you want to make a bet on this.
Catsy
@Ronc99:
I have read this three times and I still have no idea what it was intended to mean.
And after reading the rest of what you shat out on this thread, I can only recommend in earnest that you lay off the meth first thing in the morning. I’m sure it gets the day started with a bang, but the resulting work product leaves something to be desired.
Svensker
@SteveinSC:
Did he say that? Bless him.
Stillwater
@Omnes Omnibus: OO, just the phrasing of this question indicates to me that you’ve not heard what the ‘skeptics’ have been saying these last six days. Eg. your query about how to define ‘end game’ for whom.
Stefan
CNN et al. are chattering madly about the fact that two planes had to land in Washington D.C. (Reagan airport, IIRC) without air traffic control assistance b/c the lone operator on duty at the time (after midnight) had fallen asleep. Cue much outraged commentary about how having only one operator on duty is unacceptable, etc. Anyone want to bet that union work rules used to require a minimum of 2 operators on duty, before St. Reagan broke the union?
And if there’d always been one guy on stand-by, cue much outraged commentary about how we were wasting money by paying one guy not to work….
Ronc99
I think you all need to wipe the Obama jism off your faces. I understand you are led by a so called gent who is still wearing Ronald Reagan’s panties. But *uniformed cheerleaders for Obama* explains you all and him!
geg6
@Ronc99:
Again, skippy, I ask, what’s your solution? Namecalling is all fine and dandy (lord knows, I’ve done plenty of it), but if we’re all so stupid, what’s the plan exactly?
Catsy
Better purity trolls, please.
Alex S.
@Corner Stone:
Why not? Still, I wonder how we will measure whether the new leaders will be more pro-civil rights and more pro-western than Gadhafi was. We could compare their utterances with Gadhafi’s speeches. Like the one where he threatened the population of Benghazi:
“It’s over … We are coming tonight,” he said. “You will come out from inside. Prepare yourselves from tonight. We will find you in your closets.”
“We will show no mercy and no pity to them”.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/17/gaddafi-benghazi-libya-news_n_837245.html
Or we could compare them to Gadhafi’s interviews, like the one where he says:
“We do not believe the West any longer, that is why we invite Russian, Chinese and Indian companies to invest in Libya’s oil and construction spheres”
“He condemned the Western powers, saying Germany was the only country with a chance of doing business with Libyan oil in the future. “We do not trust their firms – they took part in the conspiracy against us.”
http://rt.com/news/libya-oil-gaddafi-arab/
I don’t how one could possibly surpass that, but if you want to take that bet…
cleek
@Ronc99:
fer fuck’s sake, go take a walk or something. chill the fuck out.
Dave
@Corner Stone: I will. Compared to Khadaffi it’s nigh-near impossible to be MORE anti-western and anti-democratic.
fasteddie9318
@Ronc99: If we’re too obsequious for you, feel free to give up and abandon us at your convenience.
piratedan
@SteveinSC: and considering the current (and former) representation in both the House and the Senate, what particular piece of progressive legislation do you believe that candidate Obama could pass or were you asleep for the last two years?
I’m all for progressive issues and ideals and have an idea on what I would like to see our country do, things like single payer, continuous investment for infrastructure upgrades, light rail initiatives, progressive taxation based on salary and rollback of some of the wealth loopholes in the tax codes, more regulation, a consumer advocacy agency with teeth, actual wall street reform, better environmental enforcement, actual investment in energy alternatives and an honest investigation on manufacturing without using oil…perhaps even a reinvestment in education.
but when you have ranking members of Congress apologizing to the Oil Industry for forcing them to be responsible for their own debacles… I just don’t believe that I’m gonna get my pony….he’s the President, he’s not an Emperor.
OzoneR
@The Moar You Know:
own what? Libya? The Republicans never “owned” Libya, it’s all the Dems. So what?
SteveinSC
@Svensker:
Well I did add my part to the paraphrase after the “…not at the core” because I thought it a colorful metaphor.
Joe Beese
@Corner Stone:
This is the best I can do.
fasteddie9318
@Dave:
More anti-democratic? Probably not. More anti-western? I’d say that’s very possible. Gadhafi has had ties to Europe for some time despite the mutual antagonism with the US and UK. The Benghazi region, meanwhile, is where they grow Libyans who go off and join al-Qaeda.
SteveinSC
@piratedan:
Well, Obama could try leading for a change, a burgeoning theme, you might note that is not original with me.
Dave
@SteveinSC: Y’know…it’ll be interesting to see what happens with Israel in the years ahead. One of the key pro-Israeli arguments here in the US has been that it is the “only democracy” in the ME. If Egypt becomes a democracy and Jordan’s peaceful reform continues, not only does that eliminate that argument, but it makes Israel’s actions with Palestine look even worse.
srv
@Lupin:
Not until we needed Syria and Iran as allies in Gulf I.
The Moar You Know
@soonergrunt: Oh yeah there is. My best friend in elementary school had a dad who was an ATC, and he had been enlisted Air Force. My dad was an officer. They never once talked, in spite of having kids who were best friends for years.
I’ll say this much for my dad, though: at least he didn’t forbid us to play with/hang out with enlisted kids. I knew a lot of officer’s kids whose parents specifically forbade them from doing so.
fasteddie9318
@SteveinSC: He’s arguably doing that now and being pilloried for not deferring to Congress, by some of the same voices who’ve been carping at him for being too deferential.
OzoneR
@SteveinSC:
could you be more vague? “leading” meaning what exactly? Doing whatever it is you want him to do?
Dave
@fasteddie9318: Yes, Khadaffi has some friendly ties in Europe, especially Italy. But I stand by the bet. Whomever leads Libya next will be more pro-Western and pro-democracy than Khadaffi.
Omnes Omnibus
@Stillwater: I am not sure why you would say that. Depending one which question is asked really being asked, the answer can be quite different.
SteveinSC
@Dave: Someone take that man’s name and forward it to the enforcement arm of AIPAC. He is clearly a dangerous radical.
Incoherent Dennis SGMM
@fasteddie9318:
Good point. Knowing as little as we do about the rebels it isn’t outside of the realm of possibility that numbers of them are after Qaddafi because he’s insufficiently Islamic.
We just don’t know and I find the commitment of forces under those circumstances very troubling.
SteveinSC
@fasteddie9318:
Well, he has come back from his trip.
OzoneR
@Ronc99:
yep, same guy, your delusions however, probably not the same.
OzoneR
@SteveinSC: The President can’t “lead” from South America? Then why do we spend all this money on Air Force One?
joe from Lowell
@fasteddie9318:
Actually, I was talking about deferring to the UN in the same sense as the comment I was responding to – that we intended to “blow shit up and then let the UN do the hard part.” That is, that we are going to step back from the fight and hand over command of the operation in a few days, with the subsequent loss of control over its execution and the aftermath that such a reduction in our role would produce. Does that sound like the neoconservatives you know and love?
Stillwater
@SteveinSC: Well, Obama could try leading for a change
What does his ‘leading’ have to do with anything? You don’t like the policies, right? Are these policies really the result of Obama’s failure to lead? What makes you think that if he did lead – by acting more unilaterally, I guess – that things would be better? And isn’t unilateral action what we little d democrats didn’t like about the WB presidency? And why assume that Obama isn’t already leading, but you just don’t like his methods and outcomes?
Corner Stone
@Alex S.: I think that on the whole, whoever ends up running Libya will want better -contracts with oil companies- ties to the West.
But for pro-civil rights? I seriously doubt that, and would wager they will viciously smash any viable opposition.
The new Boss isn’t going to throw rose petals from the balcony.
joe from Lowell
@Ronc99:
Once again, what is it with all the gay sex references from the firebaggers?
Aren’t these people supposed to be leftists?
Stillwater
@Omnes Omnibus: Exactly. But they’re all very interrelated, no? Clearly answering one changes how you will answer another, and so on.
Just Some Fuckhead
@joe from Lowell:
lolwut? I don’t generally second anyone but I do stand up for the right of everyone to express an unfavorable opinion, even the nutcase Joes.
joe from Lowell
@Corner Stone: A bet on whether the new regime will be more pro-Western and more pro-Civil Rights than Moamar Khadaffy?
The Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party is more pro-western and more pro-civil rights than Khadaffy. The Vietnamese government is more pro-wetstern and more pro-civil rights than Khadaffy. Cripes, the Muslim Brotherhood is more pro-western and more pro-civil rights than Khadaffy.
Not much of a bar to clear there.
Corner Stone
@Incoherent Dennis SGMM:
IMO, what’s come to light in this admittedly brief and turbulent time, is the rebels contain quite a few scary parts.
The transition council, for example, is a body of 31 people who were elected to nothing yet purportedly are the only legitimate voice for all of Libya. Then the article Cole links to says the Justice Minister is playing a large role. That dude should scare the shit out of any pro-Western minded backer. He’s as likely to have as much blood on his hands as anyone in Libya.
Corner Stone
@joe from Lowell: We know absolutely nothing about the rebels, or who will come next. Except that, for right now, they love them some cruise missiles and air cover.
That’s all. It’s foolish, IMO, to project onto a band of ill equipped and amorphous individuals any of our hopes.
We don’t really even know why they went after Gaddafi in the first place. Or if we do, I would appreciate a link to that reasoning.
Ronc99
My original post was my concerns that Obama was a fraud. My solution is NOT to re-elect him.
All I got was a rat pack MOB mentality for dare questioning *your* leader. You bitch and whine about my nasty responses, well look at your own.
If cavalierly flipflopping on the No Fly Zone within 24 hours with no communication with Congress or the American public is your idea of great leadership. Then so be it. It is NOT mine!
Sarkozy even announces the plan on TV. Not Obama, he goes and golfs a round of 18 holes and then jets off to South America. To hell with us or our military.
If you believe a round of 120 plus cruise missiles into a sovereign nation attacking its defenses is NOT an act of war, then I don’t believe you are informed enough to support anyone, anywhere in politics. I think you need to seek out a CIVICS class, not be cheerleading in here for Obama.
I see NO difference between today’s ObamaBots and yesterdays’ Bushitas. You all are brainwashed simpletons that require authoritarianism.
And as far as Obama’s healthcare legislation, read: the mandate is a payout to Big Insurance which is NOT reform, it is status quo. And FinReg, said regulations from that legislation was just exempted by Timothy Geithner to the tune of $4 trillion in BAD derivatives on Wall Street. If you think that is reform, you ain’t worthy to call yourselves American citizens, let alone be attacking others for objecting on this site. So fuck off, already!
I deeply care about my nation and I will NOT accept bad governance from Obama or Bush from TOOLS who say, “that’s just the way it is, move on!”
Chyron HR
@Ronc99:
How to be a progressive, the Ronc99 way:
1) Be a Republican.
2) Call yourself a progressive.
fasteddie9318
@Ronc99: Rock on, dude. You’re of course the only person to have pieced together those opinions. Certainly none of us Obamabots here have ever criticized his health care or financial regulation efforts.
The only thing I’d wonder is whether posting rants here is really the best use of your time and deep care for the nation. Get out there and fight that bad governance, you know?
Alex S.
@Corner Stone:
I’m much more optimstic. Whoever it will be will owe the West. And the people literally cheered in the streets when the no-fly zone was announced. They support us as long as we don’t interfere too much or for too long. More democracy will lead to more openness to the West which is why the new leader cannot be too much of an asshole. Also, religious fundamentalism is almost nonexistent in Libya. If there are factions, they are tribal and that points to a more fragmented political landscape, again.
OzoneR
@Ronc99:
we got that, you made your point, now move on
FlipYrWhig
You know, like the guy who was going on about Obama not showing enough anger, this complaint about “leading” is actually straight from the Lazy Beltway Pundit playbook. It’s like the way sportscasters will inevitably talk about which team has “momentum” and the importance of having “veterans who have been there before.” It’s not insight, it’s insightiness.
joe from Lowell
@fasteddie9318:
I think we made a huge mistake during the Cold War as treating the uprisings against the plantation oligarchs in Central America, and against colonialism in Africa and Asia, and replace them with more popular, democratic systems, as the enemy. The movements to replace the quasi-feudal plantation system could very well have been our movements. Their goals were very easy to line up with our own founding values.
But we didn’t. We did absolutely nothing to support those movements, when we weren’t actively opposing them, and the result was that we drove them right into the waiting arms of the Soviets.
Today, there are popular uprisings against dictators across the Middle East. Al Qaeda is sure as hell doing everything it can to convince those restive people that their interests lie in joining the international jihad. Well, the events in Egypt and in Tunisia pretty much proved that wrong. How many corrupt dictatorships have been overthrown your way, Osama?
We need to be on the right side of history this time, in a way that we weren’t during the Cold War.
FlipYrWhig
@Ronc99: Look into declaring yourself a sovereign citizen. Then the Republic of RonC99 can adhere to every last tenet of your personal philosophy.
Citizen_X
@srv:
Huh?
Gulf I was a year and a half after Lockerbie, Iran was not an ally (Syria was), the Lockerbie trial was not until 2000, so could you please explain the non sequitur?
Valdivia
Just out of curiosity since when did leadership=acting unilaterally around the world?
I see the leadership point as the new republican meme that democrats are willfully repeating about Obama, like he is a girly man, before.
ETA: or what @FlipYrWhig: said
joe from Lowell
@Incoherent Dennis SGMM:
We mocked the living shit out of Pat Buchanan for saying things like that about the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia.
Why is it ok to slur the protesters in Libya like that? Because Khadaffy cracked down on them particularly viciously, and they were forced to take up arms in their defense?
Joel
Meanwhile, in Bahrain, public demonstrations are possibly devolving into sectarian civil war?
fasteddie9318
@joe from Lowell: I’m not saying we shouldn’t be doing what we’re doing (although I think we need to be careful not to do any MORE than what we’re doing or else the “popular uprising” can become a “western war of aggression”), just that it’s not a given that the next guy in charge of Libya will be less anti-western than the one in charge now.
joe from Lowell
@Corner Stone:
Is this what you were saying about the uprising in Egypt? How about Tunisia?
Unless they’re in the country immediately to Libya’s west. Or, the country immediately to Libya’s east. But not the ones in Libya. They’re skeery, and became skeery the moment we backed them.
salacious crumb
The Taliban knew they would win..why? because time was on their side and they had nowhere to go, wheareas US troops are fed up of being there. Gaddhafi knows that unless he is assassinated by rebels/special forces/allied bombing campaign and unless ground troops from the west intervene, he will win….and there are no shortage of mercenaries willing to fight for him for oil money
fasteddie9318
@Joel: It was a bullshit move by the al-Khalifas and the Saudis to focus the Bahraini protests on sectarianism. It was designed to peel lower-class Sunnis away from the protest movement, with no thought to the risks of a region-wide Sunni-Shi’i conflict.
joe from Lowell
When officials in the Egyptian, Tunisian, and Yemeni governments went over the protesters, they were hailed as heros.
But not Libya.
fasteddie9318
@joe from Lowell:
Neither of those uprisings are over yet, so who knows what’s going to ultimately come of them. The difficulty with Libya is that we know far less about these rebels than we did about the protest movements in either Egypt or Tunisia. Again, that’s not an argument against aiding them, but it is an argument against blind optimism that the next ruler is going to be better.
OzoneR
@salacious crumb:
unlike Afghanistan, there is an organized group that seeks to overthrow him with wide popular support. Doesn’t mean they’ll win, but it exists.
It didn’t exist in Afghanistan. What happened there is once the Afghans were liberated, they continued their old regressive ways and descended into tribalism. They didn’t want the Taliban gone.
ppcli
I’ll give Ronc99 credit for one thing – unlike most of the Republican hacks who try to derail discussion by impersonating pissed off lefties, he hasn’t yet slipped and referred to the “Democrat party”. The tells are more subtle. He’s been practicing.
OzoneR
@joe from Lowell:
who hailed them as heroes?
joe from Lowell
@fasteddie9318:
Of course he will! For one thing, how could he not be? There isn’t a whole lot of room to be worse.
For another, the next guy in charge of Libya will owe a huge debt of gratitude to the western powers, and probably his life.
fasteddie9318
@OzoneR: And who isn’t hailing the defecting Libyans as heroes? That one dude in this thread who said something negative about the justice minister?
joe from Lowell
RonCC, May 2008:
“Dear Editor,
As a lifelong member of the Democrat Party, I’m concerned that Barack HUSSEIN Obama will not be as a strong a candidate against Senator John McCain as the She-Beast, Hitlery.
Sincerely,
I.M. Librul”
joe from Lowell
@OzoneR:
What are you, kidding? The protesters they joined. The people on these threads who were sympathetic to the protesters, who pointed to their defections as wonderful developments.
Lupin
@srv:
Er, no. Here in France, it was always assumed that Gaddafi had ordered the Lockerbie bombing.
fasteddie9318
@joe from Lowell: How could the next guy not be less anti-western than Gadhafi? You realize that Gadhafi has been cultivating business ties with France and Italy for years now, right? Gadhafi has been eager for closer ties to the west for some time now.
The next guy will certainly owe the western powers, but that’s far from a guarantee that he’ll realize it or act accordingly.
ppcli
@joe from Lowell: Exactly – that was Roncc99 back in the “you are not yet ready to leave, grasshopper” stage. It’s really quite impressive, and, yes, even inspirational to see how far he’s come, especially given his obvious mental and emotional disabilities. He’ll clean up in the troll Special Olympics.
OzoneR
@joe from Lowell: Oh you mean the protesters as heroes?
Yeah, what’s wrong with that?
Incoherent Dennis SGMM
@joe from Lowell:
Your slur detector needs recalibration. I made the point that we know too little about the rebels to definitively state that Libya is going to be better off, or a better actor on the international stage, when this mess plays out.
Judas Escargot (aka "your liberal-interventionist pal, who's fun to be with")
@Ronc99:
There is NO difference between a liberal interventionist and a neocon, sadly!
Of course there’s a difference: Liberal interventionists are much, much better looking.
Oh, yes– and we don’t eat kittens for breakfast.
Valdivia
in the meantime Syria is now going by the way of Tunisia, Egypt, etc.
just incredible how much the region is changing.
torpid bunny
The whole enterprise resembles scenarios in computer strategy games like “Age of Empires” where an “information age” political entity, with it’s fifth generation stealth jets and carrier groups, wanders into a punic war style local conflict. Like, whatever the intentions may be, the game is set up to basically let you as player drop guided missiles on other peoples infrastructure and drive around armored columns. So that’s what you do.
joe from Lowell
@Incoherent Dennis SGMM:
Oh, you went quite a bit beyond that:
Spare us the skeery Mooslim line. You sound like Buchanan, and you weren’t saying this about the protesters until it became a convenient line to use when arguing for your preferred policy, which just so happens to involve letting them get slaughtered, and would go down much more easily if the rebels weren’t so gosh-darn sympathetic.
Am I therefore sensitive to people who cast groups in the Islamic world as skeery al Qaeda Mooslims? You bet I am.
MikeJ
@torpid bunny: A punic war style conflict with T-72s and Mirage fighters.
So, uh, no.
slag
@Incoherent Dennis SGMM: Et tu, dengre?
One of the best services this blog provides is that it serves as a daily reminder of what having children could be like. This is how population control happens.
Maude
@Incoherent Dennis SGMM:
That is for the Libyans to decide.
We don’t have to know at this time who they are. Enough of them have spoken to the west about air strikes to stop the bloodshed by Gadaffi.
When the colonies went up against Britain, who were those rag taggers that fought? At times, they didn’t have shoes. Some of them didn’t believe in baths and drank like fish.
Incoherent Dennis SGMM
@joe from Lowell:
And you sound like a holier-than-thou pompous ass. I didn’t say that the rebels are scary Muslims, I did say that we don’t know whether they are or are not. There’s a world of difference between reflexively supporting people about whom you know exactly dick and asking legitimate questions about the intentions of the rebels in the wake of their becoming ours to defend.
Joe Beese
Meanwhile, in one of Obama’s other wars, we blew up two more civilians yesterday.
A tragic accident, of course. Profoundly regrettable. Petraeus will announce a full investigation…
Corner Stone
@joe from Lowell: The military will decide who rules Egpyt. They were in power before, they are in power now, and will be the power in the future. The West has deep ties to the Egyptian military, and some amount of knowledge. Not even remotely comparable to Libya.
And spare us your silly “skeery” routine.
I’m not demonizing the rebels, simply stating we don’t know enough about them and the info to this point warrants circumspection regarding proclamations about future optimistic outcomes.
Incoherent Dennis SGMM
@slag:
Well I did praise him with faint damns in a subsequent comment.
The Moar You Know
@slag: Wrong Dennis. FYI.
The Ancient Randonneur (formerly known as The Grand Panjandrum)
Is that the Kucinich campaign bandwagon I see from my front porch?
Gus
@fasteddie9318: As in Afghanistan.
Southern Beale
Top signs your healthcare system is broken.
I’m sure I missed a few….
Catsy
@Incoherent Dennis SGMM:
I’m okay with this possibility. “Islamic” does not necessarily equate to “anti-US” or “brutally repressive dictator”.
Valdivia
ha ha, via twitter
abususu Assad spox speech amounts to this: We will solve the problems that don’t exist to stop the demonstrations which aren’t happening.#Syria
8 minutes ago via web
Incoherent Dennis SGMM
@Catsy:
To be sure, although hard-core Islamists seem to be a bit weak on women’s rights.
slag
@The Moar You Know: Thank god! Sorry, dengre, for slandering your character!
FlipYrWhig
If we want to talk about uprisings and unanticipated outcomes and how they panned out, an interesting case is Iran 1979. Rising up against the Shah and his secret police was certainly A Good Thing. The opposition movement was diverse and vibrant and drew plaudits from the intellectual liberal-left. But then the Ayatollah stepped in and redefined the whole effort as retrograde and fundamentalist. Should “we,” Western hemisphere liberals, have cheered the Iranian Revolution? Should we have regretted the support we did show when it turned dark? I don’t think that’s an easy call.
(And someone the other day offered as an analogue to the Libyan situation the Georgia/South Ossetia conflict from the middle of the last election. That’s also interesting to contemplate.)
That’s why Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya are all properly occasions for skepticism and nail-biting and watchful waiting, and that’s among the people who feel the _best_ about them.
Joel
How strong is Libya as a religious state? I was under the impression that Libyans were relatively secular, like their neighbors in Tunisia and Egypt. Serious question.
Dave
@FlipYrWhig: But Iran also had the US allowing the Shah into the US and us supporting him up to and through Black Friday. So there was an anti-US vibe built into the Iranian Revolution. Then it broke down when moderate elements and the Ayatollah’s crew fought each other and the army stayed out of it. So while you can talk about possible similarities, there are also major differences between Iran 1979 and Libya 2011
Incoherent Dennis SGMM
@FlipYrWhig:
Nicely put. I think that our own revolutionary heritage causes us to look on revolutions, particularly when they’re against obvious shitheels, with rose-colored glasses. Being guardedly optimistic about the outcomes in Egypt and Tunisia is as good as it gets for me. The Libyan revolution is, to me, still an unknown.
Yutsano
@Valdivia: The lesson: never let an optometrist run your country. Especially after years of watching your older brother get groomed for the role then offing himself in a car accident.
Valdivia
@Yutsano:
indeed. Apparently his spox person is a woman, the kinder gentler approach to denial I guess. I also read that there is another brother, he seems to have control of some paramilitary org and is hard core. So there’s always the chance that the meaner brother will take over!
ETA: does the lesson apply for Rand Paul? ;)
OzoneR
@Ronc99:
Yes there is, if a neocon had intervened in Libya, it would have been on Qaddafi’s behalf.
agrippa
Wars do not do ‘end game’ all that well.
War is a roll of the iron dice; it has a life of its’ own.
Events will tell you the end game when you get to it.
fasteddie9318
@Gus: I think Karzai started out wanting to repay the west for giving him his job, but then after a short time in office he realized that, for example, the Afghan public didn’t like it when western drones blew up weddings, or that, for another example, the US was oddly enough going to have a problem with his brother becoming the country’s heroin kingpin, and the whole thing went south from there.
HyperIon
Is the one thousand figure even accurate?
No one knows.
Get it? WE DON’T KNOW.
Remember the initial estimate for the Japanese earthquake/tsunami missing? Upwards of 85,000 missing.
Since that “estimate” was published (and picked up by blogs, etc) I haven’t heard any updated number even close to that.
But the chattering tubes gotta chatter….and the absence of facts will not change that.
Yutsano
@Valdivia: You may choose to apply whatever lesson you wish. It doesn’t change the fact Bashar was supposed to be nothing more than the quiet family eye doctor while his brother (who was the favorite by any measure) was supposed to take over. The fact that it turns into a back-handed insult on Rand Paul is just gravy. :)
eemom
@FlipYrWhig:
let me just say again that your consistently rational, thoughtful take on things is a desperately needed breath of fresh air in the increasingly fetid swamp of idiocy that pervades this blog.
Mnemosyne
@Dave:
Most Americans didn’t know about Kermit Roosevelt Jr. and the CIA overthrowing Mossadeq and installing the Shah, but Iranians knew perfectly well who was to blame.
And given that the US decided at the time that the protesters weren’t Islamic fundamentalists but “Commies in turbans” under control of Moscow and assured the Shah that he had our full support, a fuckup by the US was pretty much guaranteed.
Valdivia
@Yutsano:
I agree. These family autocratic dynasties are funny that way eh?
Incoherent Dennis SGMM
@eemom:
I humbly request that those words become a tag.
Martin
@SteveinSC: I remember when my mom grounded me for two weeks. I couldn’t go out. I couldn’t watch TV. I remember how, aside from the hot meals and lack of grueling work, that she was just like Stalin.
Stillwater
@Alex S.: They support us as long as we don’t interfere too much or for too long. More democracy will lead to more openness to the West which is why the new leader cannot be too much of an asshole.
Personally, I don’t see how these claims hang together. More democracy in non-western Muslim countries does not entail that those countries will be ‘more open to the west’. Unless, of course, the West is shaping that ‘democracy’ by stipulating specific structures and arrangements that are so.
And I think that’s the point Cornerstone was suggesting, or at least the way I understood it: short of real intervention and restructuring on the part of UN/NATO/whatever countries, Libya – as it currently exists – can only be governed by another dictatorial regime. Eg., the country doesn’t even have a unified military to maintain country wide peace after Qdiddy’s ousting (if or when that happens) to even minimally establish democratic institutions.
Now I eagerly await Joe from Lowell’s reply that I’m merely defining my conclusion.
Paul in KY
@ppcli: That’s a great Mencken quote. Man, what would he have said about the last 20 years…
Bob Loblaw
@joe from Lowell:
I kinda would’ve hoped you’d be shamed by your ignorance on that one, but knowing you now, that’s clearly impossible.
Last I heard from you, the overwhelming majority of the Libyan army defected to the rebellion and Qaddafi was left with almost nothing but his African mercenaries. Even though I told you that this was likely not the case, and that reporting on the ground indicated that the combat rebels were an unorganized and unprofessional bunch of guys of the type who riot after soccer matches. And so even though a majority of the country wants Qaddafi gone, they are a silent and scared majority, which isn’t of great utility in a full out civil war. Then you told me that I hated the freedom fighters and were slurring their good name. Because seeking to understand the capabilities of the people involved in things is bullshit, you see.
@joe from Lowell:
This, however, is by and large true. And not surprising.
jeffreyw
Fuck politics, have lunch and chill.
Herbal Infusion Bagger
IIRC, the Tudeh (Communist) Party took a very active role in the 1979 revolution, and supported Khomeini after 1979 when other left parties in Iran opposed him. And Moscow took an anti-Shah, pro-Khomeini line, probably expecting that the Tudeh party would overthrow him when they got their act together.
Then Khomeini cracked down on Tudeh in 1982. Oops.
Paul in KY
@soonergrunt: Totally correct. I used to serve in a comm squadron & all the regular ATC people (Tower, Rapcon, whatever else) were enlisted. The Section heads were officers who were controllers themselves, but they rarely controlled, just enough to keep their certificates.
The other enlisted people in my unit were jealous as Hell about their ATC bretheren. The ATC people got crew rest, extra money, and due to the crew rest, could have no extra duties (so those fell on the non-ATC folks).
Just about all the troops we kicked out for failing piss tests were ATC, sadly some of them were great soldiers as well.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Stillwater: We all see how often the Democratic country known as France supports us and it is western.
mr. whipple
“Pundits who want this whole thing to be over with in 7 days are being frankly silly. Those who worry about it going on forever are being unrealistic. Those who forget or cannot see the humanitarian achievements already accomplished are being willfully blind.”
Top Ten Accomplishments of the UN No-Fly Zone
Paul in KY
@fasteddie9318: Well played, sir!
FlipYrWhig
@eemom: Well, thanks. I just think a lot of people really like the idea of dissenting, and keep creating in their minds these struggles between themselves and monolithic, mindless hordes of unreflective supporters. The thing about the liberal-left side of the political spectrum is that most of us, whatever positions we hold, don’t actually hold them unreflectively. So showing up to pummel people for being too cheery about military adventures… that’s just quixotic, because _no one is doing that_. We’re already all skeptical, we just disagree about the likelihood of disaster. Similarly, we already all know that the health care bill doesn’t do everything it could, we just disagree about how far it _could_ have gone. That’s what we’re arguing about.
Martin
@FlipYrWhig:
Agreed. This whole thing is a bit of a lottery. Eventually these guys will get this sorted out, and hopefully doing it all together will help alleviate the ‘we better have a strong leader (e.g. dictator) to deal with our powerful dictator neighbors’ attitude that these states often develop. But will it be this roll of the dice or the next? Who knows. But if the public wants to roll the dice, I think they deserve that opportunity.
Paul in KY
@The Moar You Know: I know your dad was smarter than that. IMO, it’s stupid to needlessly piss off & demean enlisted personnel. If you get on their bad side, they can fuck up your career.
geg6
@Ronc99:
Again, skippy, what’s your solution? I’ll keep asking until you quit mouthing slogans you learned from the professional left and answer the goddam question.
Mnemosyne
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
Well, to be fair, the lack of support from France over the past decade or so was more like the aftermath of you telling your alcoholic friend that he really needs to stop drinking and having him take a swing at you. They knew Iraq was a stupid idea, they refused to support us in taking a stupid action and turns out, they were right all along. Hoocoodanode?
Joseph Nobles
The big tell for me was all the officials flipping on Gaddafi. Now that we know the rebels are so few in number, the flipping is even more telling. Libya was beyond the point of no return and something had to be done. Kudos to Obama to limiting our role and getting the Arab League on board.
Corner Stone
@Dave:
I’m going to go out on a limb and so our US foreign policy does not enhance our image in the MENA region.
Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, support for Mubarak, Saleh and a blind eye for Gaddafi as long as he didn’t shoot any more airliners down.
Our realpolitik is our realpolitik after all. Or Israel’s. Either way.
Paul in KY
@ppcli: Otherwise known as the ‘Trolympics’ ™
Martin
@Stillwater:
Actually, it does. Democracies, by their very nature, are more diplomatic than militaristic. In spite of the complaints about the US military enterprise, our diplomatic enterprise is equally as large and domineering, if not more so. Even in this whole Libya endeavor, it’s Clinton who is front and center, not Gates.
And even though Cole was bitching about not having a say in this situation, ultimately the government will be responsive to the will of the people, just not to every person.
So while middle east democracies may not be happy with the US or approving of what we do, they will almost guaranteed be more ‘open’ to the US. That’s simply a function of how democracies must work. And the mere act of being more open makes things fundamentally more stable internationally.
Corner Stone
@FlipYrWhig:
This kind of reflexive thinking reminds me of the “Hot Peppers” thread here at BJ. Some people are convinced the main/sole reason people eat painfully hot things is because it’s some kind of macho thing. And now, people who distrust how this started and where it’s going to lead are Quixotic in nature and just want to see themselves as fighting a contrarian battle.
Some people actually enjoy eating hot peppers, and some people assess a situation on its own merits. Just like I don’t need to be told “Wall St. HATES this bill!” for me to instinctively love it, I don’t need to see who’s supporting this military action to inform my viewpoint.
Paul in KY
@Mnemosyne: Allowing the Shah into the US & boycotting the 1980 Summer Olympics are the 2 things Pres. Carter did that I have a hard time forgiving.
Made me not vote for him in 1980, I was one of the commies that voted for Rep. Anderson. In hindsight, I should have just voted for Pres. Carter.
Dave
@Corner Stone: I would agree with you in most cases. But in this case, the Libyan rebels know that the US has been opposed to Khadaffi. So there is actually a confluence of viewpoints between the US and a mass movement in the ME…one of the few times that has ever happened.
And I think Bush’s suckup to Khadaffi was disgusting. But it doesn’t look like the rebels in Libya are assuming that was the US’s default mode.
Nemo_N
I say one billion lives were saved.
Paul in KY
@Mnemosyne: That’s a pretty good analogy.
celticdragonchick
@General Stuck:
LOL!
Martin
@Dave: It wasn’t the US they were counting on, I don’t think. I think it was the european countries that have dealt directly with Gaddafi’s shit – from Lockerbie to the terrorist bombings in the 80s that Gaddafi ordered.
Parallel 5ths (Irish Steel)
@Catsy:
I think it’s pretty clear that one of us has conspired, with Obama, to enslave a conservative. Some kind of reparations prank, I’ll bet.
‘Fess up. Was it you?
joe from Lowell
@Incoherent Dennis SGMM:
And I don’t know whether or not your blow goats.
Would it be irresponsible to speculate that the Libyan rebels might be suicide-bombers al Qaeda terrorists? It would be irresponsible not to, apparently.
Fuck
That
Noise.
priscianus jr
@Corner Stone:
Xenos
@Martin: Western Europe is the main customer for Libya’s oil and would be facing a couple million refugees, too. And Italy has to carry the burden of having radicalized the population with some savage colonialism, too. Europe has a lot of responsibility for Libya being the way it is, and they need, in their way, to take leadership for dealing with it.
joe from Lowell
@Stillwater:
WTF?
Them people just aren’t ready for democracy, eh?
You aren’t defining your conclusion (that was the other thread, and I explained exactly how you did so, and all you could do was act wounded). You’re defining Libyans as “needing a strong hand.”
celticdragonchick
@Joe Beese:
Yeah. It fucking happens. Especially when you have a war where the enemy isn’t wearing uniforms and conducting a Clauswitz model of set-piece warfare. Hell, sometimes civilians get killed in those also.
Try to keep some fucking perspective in mind when you reflect that British Air Marshall “Bomber” Harris was deliberately roasting tens of thousands of Germans alive in their own homes and bomb shelters during the night time raids on Germany in WW II.
Dave
@Martin: yeah, that may be so. I guess then the better thing to say is the the West’s viewpoint and the rebels viewpoint on Khadaffi’s regime were in sync, which is still quite rare when it comes to the Middle East and North Africa.
joe from Lowell
@Bob Loblaw: Since you and that straw man are clearly having an intimate moment, I’ll just close the door and put on some smooth jazz.
Actually, I wrote that he had one guy with a bugle left. Totally. You aren’t distorting what I actually wrote to make it easer to argue against. At all.
Corner Stone
@priscianus jr:
I don’t know the answer either. But, ISTM, there will be a sizable contingent of “dead enders” (for lack of a better phrase), who depended on Gaddafi for their survival and have no good sanctuary options. How they get rolled up and at what cost will be interesting.
Corner Stone
@celticdragonchick:
Invoking WWII fails your perspective test.
joe from Lowell
@Corner Stone:
I realize this wasn’t your point, but…
And now we called for Mubarak to step down, for our ally in Tunisia to step down, and Saleh, and called on our allies in Bahrain to dialogue with the protesters.
Let’s compare this to Bush’s full-throated backing for Musharriff when the Pakistani people took to the streets to oust him.
I think it’s worth acknowledging that a change has taken place, and that assuming Obama is pursuing the same policies towards MENA dictators as the past few presidents is a dead end.
Xenos
I am usually a leftier-than-thou kind of guy, but I am beginning to consider taking up Hippy-Punching as a hobby. It must be terribly cathartic.
srv
@Citizen_X:
And Lockerbie was 6 months after we blew an Iranian airliner out of the air. Couldn’t possibly be connected. Syria was a defacto ally and Iran was a silent partner pledged to stay out of the way.
You should read who the neocons wanted to go to war with after the bombing, pick up a Newsweek or Time from that period. Hint: It wasn’t Libya until Saddam went into Kuwait. Good that someone found some ‘evidence’ to make that stick. Along with a paid informant who was the only ‘witness’ (who was shown a picture of the ‘bomber’ and then asked to describe/identify him). And the ‘bomber’ was release for ‘medical reasons’ and is still alive in Libya last I checked. Go figure.
celticdragonchick
@Corner Stone:
The nature of airpower is not substantially different now from what is was then, and heavy bombers have been used in either case.
Sorry, but there it is. Joe wants to rend his garments and sit in ashes with sackcloth because two people ran out of luck? He can have at it. The Allies used to obliterate people by the tens of thousands on a nightly basis, and now we apologize when we kill two by accident. I think that is a turn for the better, personally.
Corner Stone
@celticdragonchick: The scope doesn’t even bear out the consideration of an analogy.
Bill H.
@Dave:
The American Revolution was won by an “armed rabble.” In fact there was a great book about it, one of the best I’ve ever read, by Kenneth Roberts, named A Rabble In Arms.
And, of course, “rabble” has now been said too often to sound like an actual word.
Dave
Good point…maybe that was a poor choice of words. Maybe the rebel military units are like the Rebel Alliance and the rest of them are like the Ewoks? Or is that just too film-geek of a comparison to use?
Stillwater
@joe from Lowell: You’re defining Libyans as “needing a strong hand.”
That’s really the best you can do here, Joe, accuse me of condescension? That’s somehow supposed to answer the content of the claim?
Here, I’ll pull one of your tricks: a person who resorts to accusing his opponent of condescension to derail the discussion is someone not confident in their argument!
Triassic Sands
@gene108:
I don’t know what Kennedy would have done for HCR if he had been healthy. However, he was healthy when he pushed No Child Left Behind, and NCLB is one of the worst pieces of legislation ever concocted in Washington. (Something Kennedy himself may have come to realize before his death.)
Perhaps, Kennedy would have made a positive difference on HCR, but anyone who was a key author/supporter of something as horrible as NCLB doesn’t deserve an automatic pass on anything. The best that can be fairly said about Kennedy and HCR is we just don’t know.
FlipYrWhig
@Corner Stone:
That’s not necessarily the _reason_ for why people have expressed what they have expressed. But it accounts for some of the _rhetoric_. Think of how many times we’ve heard versions of “Here we go again” and “All I’m doing is raising questions” and all the usual stuff about how Obots are knee-jerk supporters who do whatever their Special President Friend wants. I’m trying to differentiate between skepticism about the policy — which is totally fine, and which can lead to both snark and argument — and this other “Some people never learn”/”Can’t handle the truth” aspect that doesn’t seem to do much more than compliment oneself for not getting played by The Empire.
Incoherent Dennis SGMM
@joe from Lowell:
What a cunningly crafted and well-reasoned argument. Your wisdom and logic have certainly changed my mind.
El Cid
@fasteddie9318: The votes in favor were the US, UK, and France. China and Russia abstained, typically under pressure from the US. That’s a typical vote pattern, and the UN is really its member states, and the Security Council the 5 big nuclear powers, so if the US were to argue that it was following a UN Security Council consensus, that would basically mean we went along with France and Britain.
celticdragonchick
@Corner Stone:
Oh really? Shall we narrow things just a teensie bit for your delicate sensibities?
How about the mass carpet bombing in Afghanistan conducted by the Soviets, to say nothing of the use of chemical weapons on Afganh civilians and land mines designed to look like toys?
Or is that not up for comparison either?
Oh, I get it…!
We are ten worstest evuh and any comparison to actual documented warcrimes is unfair because we are ten worstest evuh right now.
Dave
@El Cid: China and Russia didn’t abstain under pressure from the US. They almost enjoy checking the US when it comes to the Security Council. When they abstain, like this, it’s because even THEY realize something has to be done but can’t approve because of domestic or international concerns. So they abstain and then criticize the action. Their abstention was a virtual yes vote.
El Cid
@Dave: No they don’t. Not in turns of opposition votes. The two almost never veto. Since ’96 each has vetoes 3 times.
Yes, the abstention was a virtual yes vote. Because it always is.
fasteddie9318
Is it possible that there’s some middle ground between “OBAMA IS A WAR CRIMINAL BASTARD BECAUSE WE ACCIDENTALLY KILLED TWO AFGHAN CIVILIANS” and “WELL AT LEAST WE DIDN’T FIREBOMB THE WHOLE FUCKING PLACE LIKE DRESDEN”?
Corner Stone
@celticdragonchick: I cede to your superiority in using internet tradition spelling to craft a convincing argument.
Corner Stone
@Dave:
Might as well go with it. I used Alderaan the other day.
Corner Stone
@Incoherent Dennis SGMM:
Whatever else comes of the action in Libya, we can sleep well at night knowing it has helped us definitively decide joe from Lowell clearly outlasted the overwhelmed Allan and earned the belt for most pompous jackass on BJ.
Whew, it’s good to finally reach closure on at least one thing!
Corner Stone
@fasteddie9318: Other people! Died! Somewhere!
Dave
@El Cid: My point was that Russia and China didn’t accede to US pressure, as you said. And in this case, I think the danger of looking as though they were trying to prevent the UN from stopping a massacre is what kept them on the sidelines.
joe from Lowell
@Corner Stone: But she didn’t make an analogy.
Quite the opposite, her point was to draw attention to the massive disparity between the two.
So a complaint about perspective seems particularly ill-aimed.
Midnight Marauder
@SteveinSC: @SteveinSC:
Because it is unfailingly stupid. For fuck’s sake, Harold Ford?! Can we at least compare President Obama to a politician that is successfully able to get elected in different venues across the country?
Harold Ford?! I mean, come the fuck on. I hate Peyton Manning, but you don’t see me comparing him to Akili Smith, because I possess a modicum of intellectual honesty as a human being.
joe from Lowell
@Stillwater:
Dude, YOUR OWN WORDS:
Yes, Stillwater, that’s condescending as all hell. You don’t think Libyans can live, except under a strong hand, unless the west comes in and restructures their country.
And you’re upset that I find that statement condescending?
Too bad. You wrote what you wrote, and it’s disgusting and elitist.
joe from Lowell
@Incoherent Dennis SGMM: I don’t want to change your mind. I don’t think there’s the slightest chance of that happening.
I want to expose you, and your arguments, for what they are, so that others can see. I want to discredit you, by drawing attention to exactly how elitist, scare-mongering, and irresponsible your “just asking questions” about whether the Libyan opposition consists of al Qaedists truly is.
joe from Lowell
@El Cid:
Huh? China and Russia veto things all the time. Russia was running interference for Iran’s nuclear program, remember?
virag
@Dave:
we blew it in iran in 1953. without western support of that coup, iran 1979–and 2011–would have been an entirely different situation. talk about the seeds of democracy and the moral equivalent of our founding fathers.
Dave
@virag: Amen to that. The whole history of the ME and the world changes if we hadn’t pulled that move.
celticdragonchick
@Corner Stone:
You got what you paid for, since you didn’t make any case for your assertion that American and British airpower in WW II cannot be compared to British and American airpower in Afghanistan beyond:
I said so! So there!
Want a better argument? Give me something to work with.
joe from Lowell
@virag:
@Dave:
Without that bone-headed move, the upcoming American-Indian-Iranian alliance would probably be in place by now.
Mnemosyne
@Joseph Nobles:
Didn’t Libya’s ambassador to the UN turn on Gaddafi and urge the UN to vote in favor of the resolution?
Corner Stone
@celticdragonchick: How does the “accidental” killing of two people by airpower possibly compare to the ordered firebombing of an entire countryside? Or even individuals the Soviets purposefully meant to destroy?
People die by similar methods all the time. I think the scope and intent of the incidents don’t easily lend themselves to a discussion of “airpower”.
Incoherent Dennis SGMM
@joe from Lowell:
How noble of you. The barrenness of my thoughts laid out for all to see by a guy named Joe. I think that the regulars here know, after four years, the limitations of my intellect. You would be wise to recognize the limitations of your own.
I never mentioned the words “Al Qaeda” in a single goddamned comment on this subject, you strawman-creating blowhard. You are the soul of imprudence if you believe that there is no reason to determine the goals and makeup of the Libyan rebels. The nation has been committed to supporting the rebels, so be it; what’s done is not easily undone. To know as much as we can about the people to whom we’ve made this commitment seems only to be common sense.
soonergrunt
@Mnemosyne: Yes, he did.
Stillwater
@joe from Lowell: The ole Double Down! Where’d you learn these awesome skillz, bro? No one can even respond to the double down!
You’re re-confirming your rightful place as Standard Bearer of Fools, surpassing even Allan who was definitely making a good run for it.
Tony J
@Lupin:
Insofar as I understand it without going into details I can’t remember, the idea is that prior to Gulf War I the investigation was leading in the direction of Syria and Iran being behind whoever actually carried out Lockerbie. In order to get Syria onside and keep Iran from taking advantage while Saddam was getting schooled by Kuwait’s allies, it was decided that Libya should take the blame.
Since the pre-2011 return of Libya into the international fold required Britain to release the convicted Libyan bomber on ‘compassionate’ grounds (he was dying, but got better), it’s thought by some that this means a compromise was reached between the West and Ghaddafi to make the whole issue go away. They got to say the case was closed, he got to tell the Libyan people this just proved the West had been lying all along but couldn’t admit it.
YMMV, but that’s basically it.
FlipYrWhig
@virag: Co-sign.
Joe Beese
It’s true that they weren’t Americans or any similarly valuable kind of white person. But I was kind of rooting for them anyway.
Joe Beese
It’s true that they weren’t Americans or any similarly valuable kind of white person. But I was kind of rooting for them anyway.
joe from Lowell
@Incoherent Dennis SGMM:
How disciplined of you.
Keep walking it back, to the point where you’re not concern trolling whether the popular protests in the Middle East are actually fronts from Islamists, and you’ll have a point worthy of decent society.
joe from Lowell
@Stillwater: Nice hand-waving. I’d say I’m sorry for your hurt fee-fees, except I’m not.
Your own damning, elitist, disgusting words:
Oh, and if it’s not clear, this pretty much voids your ability to cite concern for the well-being of Libyans to justify your position, if this is what you think of them.
joe from Lowell
@Joe Beese:
…says the guy disappointed that Khadaffy’s tankers weren’t allowed to make the streets of Benghazi run with blood.
El Cid
@joe from Lowell: No they don’t. Go look it up. Find where China and Russia “veto things all the time.” It’s different to say that before a vote they express that they won’t go along.
Joe Bauers
@Ronc99:
Cocaine is a hell of a drug.
celticdragonchick
@Corner Stone:
Indeed. Joe Beese wants to say that the President is committing war crimes by conducting any combat action where civilians are accidentally killed.
My point is that his position is laughable, even if the actual deaths are not, since it is demonstrably provable that the US, the UK and a host of other governments have used air power against civilian populations in the past where there was no accident at all in the act. It is currently understood that military operations must take all reasonable measures to prevent disproportionate harm to civilians…and this is something that Joe does not seem to understand at all. Civilians have always been injured or killed in wars, and often due to the deliberate calculation of the state the state that those deaths would in fact be desirable.
Examples:
Massacres of Scottish civilians and mass rapes of women by British Hanoverian troops after the Battle of Culloden in 1745.
Deliberate starvation of Greek civilians in the Peloponnese by Ottoman forces in the summer and fall of 1827
Mass reprisals against British Celts by the Romans after the Iceni Revolt in AD 61
The massacres of Jews, Ukranians and numerous other civilians on the Eastern Front by SS units from 1941 to 1944.
…and many others.
There are also numerous example of massacres which occur simply from racial triumphalism, such as the Spanish killings and enslavement of Native Americans, the butchery of Chinese Civilians by Japanese troops at and around Nanking, the murder of Chinese farmers by Mongols (who really, really hated farmers as a matter of culture, it seems) and so on.
The deaths we see attributed to airpower reflect the limits of current technology (ie great at killing but not so great at making real quick snap identifications of people from two miles away) in a situation where human error can be deadly. To equate this with the deliberate use of airpower to kill civilians, which I pointed out is what he is really doing, is simply absurd.
Angry Black Lady
@Incoherent Dennis SGMM: seconded.
pattonbt
@Bob Loblaw:
“[Joe from Lowell]I’d say the threads on this subject demonstrate that the interventionists in this debate are a great deal more informed than the opponents”
“[Bob Loblaw responding]This, however, is by and large true. And not surprising.”
Oh how smug we are in our ability to cherry pick our data to show the illusion that the idea we support is superior and how clever we are to parse, define and qualify our reasons for our tepid approval of this military intervention. Look at how intelligent and thoughtful we are!
Give it a rest. There have been many good pro/con arguments made here. And many worthy of respectful disagreement. Yet I am continually astounded how so many pro people just “know” this is a good thing when history tells them, repeatedly, that will not be the case. Could it go well? Sure. But probability says, most likely not.
Maybe you guys should wait a bit and let things unfold before going all “Mission Accomplished”. There are way too many unknowns out there right now to be anything other than cautious and skeptical.
I’m not trying to be a jackass, but those quoted comments really come off as smug and offensive when talking about war and death.