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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

“Alexa, change the president.”

I have other things to bitch about but those will have to wait.

I like political parties that aren’t owned by foreign adversaries.

I would try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

My right to basic bodily autonomy is not on the table. that’s the new deal.

Those who are easily outraged are easily manipulated.

“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.”

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

You passed on an opportunity to be offended? What are you even doing here?

“Jesus paying for the sins of everyone is an insult to those who paid for their own sins.”

American history and black history cannot be separated.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

When you’re in more danger from the IDF than from Russian shelling, that’s really bad.

Give the craziest people you know everything they want and hope they don’t ask for more? Great plan.

Our messy unity will be our strength.

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

Be a wild strawberry.

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

Hey hey, RFK, how many kids did you kill today?

Bad people in a position to do bad things will do bad things because they are bad people. End of story.

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

Anne Laurie is a fucking hero in so many ways. ~ Betty Cracker

Their freedom requires your slavery.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Monday Evening Open Thread: Counterargument – Don’t Panic, Yet

by Anne Laurie|  February 10, 20257:44 pm| 214 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republicans in Disarray!

This isn’t timidity. This is Schumer focusing all the blame on Repubs when it happens.

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— Dana Houle (@danahoule.bsky.social) February 10, 2025 at 1:35 PM

Because somebody has to defend our team: Yes, it would be much more satisfactory if Chuck Schumer was standing in front of the Washington Monument with a tiki torch and a mob of angry college kids, but would it be more effective? A dispiriting percentage of our fellow Voter-Americans are only vaguely aware (if at all) that President Trump has made Elon Musk his Grand Vizier (or vice versa), ergo for them, Bipartisanship is still the best & highest goal. Dems vs Repubs, Eagles vs Chief, it’s all a good old-fashioned All-American game, amiright, gang? But when the gubmint checks don’t show up, or the only hospital within an hour’s drive shuts down… that’s when we have the mules’ attention.

Everybody needs to take their xanax and understand that the Democrats are not going to say "We want to shut down the government to stick it to the president" in any interview they give for the next two years. They're going to say they want to be bipartisan and centrist, as they should.

[image or embed]

— Damned Robot (@supremerobo.bsky.social) February 10, 2025 at 1:41 PM

No, I am not saying they should be bipartisan and centrist. I am saying they should be ruthlessly partisan and say publicly that they're bipartisan and centrist

— Damned Robot (@supremerobo.bsky.social) February 10, 2025 at 1:43 PM

Very different message here from Politico after reframing the article. This is a lesson that complaining about bad headlines (presumably from Schumer’s office) can actually improve them!

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— Craig Harrington (@craigipedia.bsky.social) February 10, 2025 at 7:08 PM

Senate Democrats are detailing how they plan to fight back against President Donald Trump’s administration — and warning Republicans against a go-it-alone approach on government funding.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer sent a “Dear Colleague” letter to his caucus on Monday that detailed four strategies to counter Trump: investigations, litigation through the courts, legislation and party messaging. Unlike other Democrats, who have recently warned that that GOP can’t count on their votes to avert a shutdown, Schumer isn’t going there yet.

Instead, while Schumer made clear that his party would support a bipartisan government funding deal, he also put the onus on Republicans to negotiate with them. Republicans had accused Democrats of walking out on talks last week, though a person with the private talks said late last week that House and Senate Republicans are still not aligned on their topline offer.

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“Democrats stand ready to support legislation that will prevent a government shutdown. Congressional Republicans, despite their bluster, know full well that governing requires bipartisan negotiation and cooperation,” Schumer wrote.

“Of course, legislation in the Senate requires 60 votes and Senate Democrats will use our votes to help steady the ship for the American people in these turbulent times. It is incumbent on responsible Republicans to get serious and work in a bipartisan fashion to avoid a Trump Shutdown,” he added.

Senate Republicans will need at least seven Democrats to get a government funding bill through their chamber. And while Speaker Mike Johnson could get legislation through the House without support across the aisle, he’s been forced to cut a deal with Democrats on spending repeatedly because of divisions among his own members…

People, this is Jeffries putting all of the blame upon Republicans. Because Johnson can't get his side in order. And everything that is going wrong and will go wrong will because the Republicans cannot govern.
This is a spectacular message. REPEAT IT.

[image or embed]

— Jill Sargent Russell, PhD (@jsargentr.bsky.social) February 10, 2025 at 1:35 PM

Monday Evening Open Thread: Counterargument – Don’t Panic, YetPost + Comments (214)

Exciting personal update

by Major Major Major Major|  February 10, 20254:03 pm| 138 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Look what we made with the power of science!

Exciting personal update

Her name is Camille and she is perfect. Even the doctor says so.

As you can imagine, this took a bit of doing for two men, but we did it. It feels like we stole fire from the gods. I wish she could have come into the world at a more auspicious time, but at least we got in under the wire for the year of the dragon. More importantly, we got in under the wire for any legal or administrative changes that might have made modifying the birth certificate difficult or impossible (and there was already the looming threat of DeSantis pulling a Meloni, since our surrogate lives in Florida). I guess we should get a move on acquiring a social security card and maybe a passport before those offices get nuked…

I don’t really feel that much different. Got all my youthful goals out of the way a while ago. And, since this took several years, I guess I was already sort of in dad mode–getting a house, moving near family, gardening, birdwatching… already I hear the siren’s call of learning about the revolutionary and civil wars…

Happy to answer questions people might have in the comments, within reason of course :)

I’m pretty bad at writing about this, but anyway, this and the video game are pretty much what I’ve been up to. Cheers!

Exciting personal updatePost + Comments (138)

Please RSVP for the Saturday Zoom with Elle Reeve (Open Thread)

by WaterGirl|  February 10, 20252:40 pm| 11 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

I’m not sure what happened, but I only have 5 RSVPs for the zoom with Elle Reeve on Saturday.  I know there was more interest than that, so just 5 RSVPs  can’t be right.

Please RSVP to me by email, even if you previously sent an RSVP.

my nym @ balloon-juice.com

Link to previous post in case you missed it or you have slept since then. :-)

Open Thread.

 

 

Please RSVP for the Saturday Zoom with Elle Reeve (Open Thread)Post + Comments (11)

Abnormal Psychology (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  February 10, 202512:32 pm| 74 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics

To adapt to the Horrors,* I’m oscillating between two media consumption poles. I tune everything out completely for a while and spend most of my free time on the porch or in the yard, observing the waterfowl and other critters or reading escapist books. Then I’ll dive in and read about the Horrors or listen to podcasts outlining the carnage until I’m too horrified to continue, so I revert to a media blackout again.

Over the weekend, I read and heard some speculation in the vein of why Trump is doing A and what motivates Musk to do B and why Vance is gobbling knob C, etc. It occurred to me that I’m sick and fucking tired of plumbing the depths of those sociopaths’ abnormal psychology to try to figure out how to anticipate and prepare for further Horrors. It’s a small thing, my personal weariness of the spectacle, but I’ve never been more over anything in my entire goddamn life. And we’re only three weeks in.

Sigh.

Open thread.

*Thanks, Rose!

Abnormal Psychology (Open Thread)Post + Comments (74)

Let’s talk NIH Grants

by David Anderson|  February 10, 202510:52 am| 36 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance, Open Threads

I’m the lead scientist (known as a Principal Investigator/PI) for a small R03 grant application going to the National Institutes of Health (NIH).  I want to look at how people make choices when premiums don’t matter.  I’m just finished reviewing the final pages. I sent the document to my pre-award grant administrator.  She’ll review everything for format and then send the files to the main University level review/grant administration team.  They’ll give a thumbs up and submit the entire grant  for the February cycle sometime this afternoon.

It has a cost cap of $100,000 in total expenses over 2 years.  Costs are split between direct and indirect costs.  Direct costs are my salary and other costs of my employment (health insurance, 401K etc and the stipend for the graduate student who I want to hire)   The University of South Carolina receives a 49% indirect rate for federal grants.  Basically every $2 of direct research costs leads to $1 of federal support for the USC research infrastructure.    Those research infrastructure costs are wide and varied but they include paying for the library and a lot of IT support as well as maintaining the buildings where the research happens plus the ethics and administrative supports that the feds (rightly) require.

I am extremely unlikely to be awarded these funds in this round.  That statement is true in this factual universe, it is true in a counterfactual Harris or Biden presidency universe, and it is true in a universe where NIH is acting as it was from 2017-2020. It is a true statement because it is the first submission of an idea by a new PI.  The typical R03 goes back and forth for review and revision between the PI and NIH multiple times if it will ever be funded. First submission funding is WEIRD!

My objective for this round is to get good feedback that I can incorporate into a second round in the Fall.

Once the grant application goes to NIH, it is screened to make sure it is administratively sound.  Is it the right budget for the grant mechanism?  R01s are big budgets (~$2 million for 4 or 5 years, R03s are tiny, and R21s are in-between).  Is it an application with a clinical trial component going to a non-trial grant mechanism?  Does it have all the appropriate signatures?  Once it is administratively clear it is assigned a “study section.”

The study section is a group of respected researchers with skills in the broad area of a bunch of common applications.  My grant will be in a study section of health economics/behavioral social sciences grants.  Over the next couple of months, at least three members of the study section will read the entire application and grade it on two key criteria — is the proposed research Important and is the proposed project Doable?  Every grant application is graded.  The grades are then collected for all grants and the top half of the grants advance to the next review round.  The entire panel meets either in-person or virtually.  Here each of the top 50% proposals is discussed for 10-15 minutes and the entire study section scores and ranks each grant.

Each study section sends its scores to “Council” which is run by NIH and most of the recommended grants get funded and some grants that did not score high but covered really important topics might receive funding too.  All the other grants are then sent feedback from each of the three reviewers.

Assuming I was to be funded on this grant, I would receive a Notice of Award (NOA).  The NOA would tell me when the money would arrive and kick off a bunch of new administrative tasks.  I would likely start the research that I want to do in September or October.  I would have funds to cover six or seven weeks of my salary per year for two years and I would be able to hire/fund a PhD student for a good chunk of their time during the grant period.

The most likely case is that I get good feedback this cycle so I could revise the application.  I might have a decent chance of funding for the Fall submission window so the money would likely arrive at this time next year.

This is the short and straightforward/hopeful version of the academic grant writing and funding cycle.

 

Let’s talk NIH GrantsPost + Comments (36)

Breaking the Ceiling

by @heymistermix.com|  February 10, 202510:12 am| 60 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

This is the next move:

(Reuters) -U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday said his administration was examining U.S. Treasury debt payments for possible fraud and suggested that the country’s $36 trillion debt load might not be that high.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump said administration officials who have been combing through payment records in an effort to identify wasteful spending have turned their attention to the debt payments that play a central role in the global financial system.

“We’re even looking at Treasuries,” Trump said. “There could be a problem – you’ve been reading about that, with Treasuries and that could be an interesting problem.”

He added: “It could be that a lot of those things don’t count. In other words, that some of that stuff that we’re finding is very fraudulent, therefore maybe we have less debt than we thought.”

The lawbreaking self-appointed King pulling the strings, and the guy who regularly stiffs contractors, are trying to find a way to get around the debt ceiling.  If that means not paying debts, it could be catastrophic.

For those not familiar with how financial markets work, US Treasuries are the ultimate safe asset, used as collateral for everything. Even a hint that some Treasuries might not be honored could bring everything to a screeching halt 1/

— Paul Krugman (@pkrugman.bsky.social) February 9, 2025 at 5:48 PM

Musk and Trump are both in the habit of stiffing people they owe money. If markets even suspect that this habit will extend to Treasuries, God help us 2/

— Paul Krugman (@pkrugman.bsky.social) February 9, 2025 at 5:48 PM

If you’re inclined to be calling your Senators and Rep, and if they’re Republican, you might want to ask them if they’re on board with Trump’s view that backing Treasuries is optional.

Breaking the CeilingPost + Comments (60)

Monday Morning Open Thread: Is There Still A ‘Superbowl Hangover’?

by Anne Laurie|  February 10, 20258:28 am| 231 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republican Venality, Show Us on the Doll Where the Invisible Hand Touched You, Sports

This is the best Eagles winning the Super Bowl video of Broad Street.

Video: @billykyle pic.twitter.com/l7r8DT0LZp

— On Pattison (@OnPattison) February 10, 2025

Back in the day, so many people spent Superb Owl Sunday celebrating, the subsequent Monday was rather like Boxing Day in the Commonwealth — even if workers did show up, not much work would be accomplished. The NFL is no longer what it was, but I suspect there’s a certain portion of our own Jackaltariat that isn’t in the best shape for charging into a new work week right now, regardless.

Meanwhile:

Today, I’m calling on our brave public servants:

I’m launching a new portal for anyone who wants to expose corruption, abuses of power, and threats to public safety with the legal protections of being a whistleblower.https://t.co/pjm1tb4VDt

— Chuck Schumer (@SenSchumer) February 10, 2025

Sometimes it’s important just to say it out loud… Per the Washington Post, “To watch Musk, Senate Democrats start whistleblower platform for workers”:

Senate Democrats, led by Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-New York), have set up a whistleblower complaint portal for federal workers to submit any reports of what they see as unlawful activities in their respective agencies in response to Elon Musk and his group’s efforts to downsize the federal government.

President Donald Trump and Musk, the world’s richest man, have taken a sledgehammer to 15 government agencies, including the U.S. Agency for International Development, the Treasury Department and the Office of Personnel Management. Allies of Musk and representatives of the new office he runs called the U.S. DOGE Service — short for the Department of Government Efficiency — have fanned out across Washington, burrowing into computer systems and disrupting operations in an effort to cut costs and shrink the government.

While Democrats — who hold the minority in both chambers of Congress — have limited power to oppose Trump and Musk, they have started to raise the alarm over the potential unconstitutionality of their actions. The moves have also troubled some constitutional scholars and budget experts, who say the White House’s steps could upset the nation’s delicate system of checks and balances…

In a letter sent to public servants and obtained by The Post, Senate Democrats said that they are ready to support any whistleblower seeking to share information about “wrongdoing, abuse of power, and threats to public safety.”

Democrats emphasized the role of the Whistleblower Protection Act in prohibiting retaliation against federal employees who disclose evidence of possible wrongdoing. They also vowed to investigate the Trump administration’s actions through oversight requests, hearings and inquiries…

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“As Senate Republicans refuse to fulfill their constitutional duty to provide a check on the Executive Branch, Senate Democrats remain steadfast in our commitment to uncovering the truth,” Democrats wrote. “We are prepared to issue demand letters, preserve public records, conduct public hearings, and pursue legal action where necessary.”

The online form is similar to one available on Sen. Chuck Grassley’s (R-Iowa) website, in which Grassley calls for whistleblowers to submit information “regarding wrongdoing within federal agencies or misuse of public dollars.”

Republicans in the House and Senate, however, have largely remained supportive of Trump and have not criticized Musk’s actions. Republicans, however, have attacked civil servants in agencies such as USAID and the OPM, blaming them without evidence of misusing taxpayer dollars.

 
And, of course, I still love my senior Senator…

I often talk about righteous fights. Make no mistake: we are in one.

This fight will be long. Trump will continue to distract, divide, and demoralize us.

But when things get tough, there is only one option ahead of us: Nevertheless, we must persist. pic.twitter.com/o4FamjrUFI

— Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) February 8, 2025

Monday Morning Open Thread: Is There Still A ‘Superbowl Hangover’?Post + Comments (231)

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