Jonathan Bernstein argues that Obamacare, even if very successful as a matter of policy, won’t help Democrats much politically because once a party attains its ostensible objectives — be it Medicare or the fall of the Soviet Union — the conversation moves away from that objective in a way that may not help the party at all.
SteveM makes a perverse but profound point:
So if Bernstein is right, and the most motivated voters are the ones who haven’t gotten what they want from their party, then Democrats may win elections forever, because Republicans will never let Democrats give voters what they want.
Part of the genius of the Buchanan-Nixon playbook that’s dominated politics for the last 40 years is that it relies on battles that can never be won, grievances that can never be fully addressed. Civil rights will never be revoked (overturning VRA was bad, but it didn’t bring back Jim Crow), Roe v. Wade will likely never be reversed (and if it was, it would be a disaster for Republicans). So you can motivate some blocks of conservatives with abortion and xenophobia literally forever.
The GOP is now engaged in unprecedented efforts to block everything Obama is trying to do. That’s why I think this time may be different, that we’re entering a long cycle where Democrats have an advantage. If Republicans got out of the way and let Democrats implement health care reform, immigration reform, economic stimulus measures, and so on, they’d be better off in the long run. The public is ultimately with Democrats on these issues (despite what polls say about Obamacare), and the Republicans would be better off bowing out and picking better fights later.