Hold those positive thoughts? Dana Millbank, aka Tha Dickwhisperer, is already arguing that Republicans running on “repeal” of HCR may not be making the best political decisions:
“This is the largest tax bill in history,” the Republican leader fumed. The reform “is unjust, unworkable, stupidly drafted and wastefully financed.”
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And that wasn’t all. This “cruel hoax,” he said, this “folly” of “bungling and waste,” compared poorly to the “much less expensive” and “practical measures” favored by the Republicans. “We must repeal,” the GOP leader argued. “The Republican Party is pledged to do this.”
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That was Republican presidential nominee Alf Landon in a September 1936 campaign speech. He based his bid for the White House on repealing Social Security.
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Bad call, Alf. Republicans lost that presidential election in a landslide. By the time they finally regained the White House — 16 years later — their nominee, Dwight Eisenhower, had abandoned the party’s repeal platform.
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Circumstances are different now, as Republicans, assuming the Democrats’ health legislation clears the House this weekend, prepare to campaign this year and in 2012 on the repeal of health-care reform. But the ghost of Landon should spook them as they do so: The health-care legislation, if passed, won’t be repealed, and the politics of repeal may not work out as well as Republicans expect. You wouldn’t think that based on the headlong rush to demand a repeal even before the health bill becomes law.
[…] What Americans would see — or at least what Democratic ad makers say they’d put on Americans’ TV screens — are the benefits that would take effect this year: tax credits that encourage small businesses to offer health coverage; a $250 rebate to Medicare beneficiaries who hit the prescription-drug “donut hole” (the checks would start going out June 15); allowing young people up to age 26 to stay on their parents’ health policies; and, above all, a ban on refusing coverage to children with preexisting conditions.
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There will certainly be ads this fall saying Republican Congressman X voted against tax breaks for small business and voted to deny Junior his life-saving treatments. These modest changes to the health system probably wouldn’t be widespread and noticeable enough to limit Democratic losses at a time of 10 percent unemployment. But, at the very least, voters would see nothing to justify the Republicans’ apocalyptic predictions.
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Yet repeal still holds appeal, even to the likes of Mitt Romney, who as governor of Massachusetts created what the New Republic’s Jonathan Chait calls “the closest thing to Obamacare in the United States.” A poll by the Boston Globe and Harvard last fall found that only one in 10 Massachusetts residents favors a repeal of that program.
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“The American people will not stand for this bill becoming law,” Romney said this week. “The American people will be with us and they will throw those guys out.”
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That’s what Alf Landon thought, too.
Mr. Millbank is not, I agree, generally known for his prognosticating precience. But he does have the born courtier’s instincts for scenting every change in the prevailing political winds. And if he’s already arguing against repeal, I believe that’s another signal that today’s votes will be successful.
SiubhanDuinne
The Dickwhisperer and his ilk remind me of the old English song about “The Vicar of Bray” who changed from Catholic to Protestant and back again whenever a new monarch’s accession shifted the prevailing political-ecclesiastical winds. Your calling him a “courtier” is spot-on.
Moses2317
The health care reform voting does not begin until mid-afternoon on Sunday and a few votes are still up for grabs. Following are the list of Congresspeople who we should keep calling to make sure that we win this historic victory on Sunday!
Brian Baird – Washington (Vancouver, Olympia) – (202) 225-3536
Paul Kanjorski – Pennsylvania (Wilkes-Barre, Scranton, Mount Pocono) – 202-225-6511
John Tanner – Tennessee (Union City, Jackson, Millington) – 202-225-4714
Earl Pomeroy – North Dakota (Bismarck, Fargo) – (202) 225-2611
Lincoln Davis – Tennessee (Columbia, Jamestown, Rockwood) – 202.225.6831
Marcy Kaptur – Ohio (Toledo) – (202) 225-4146
Mike Michaud – Maine (Bangor, Lewiston, Presque Isle, Waterville) – 202-225-6306
Bill Foster – Illinois (Batavia, Dixon, Geneseo) – (202) 225-2976
Kathy Dahlkemper – Pennsylvania (Erie) – (202) 225-5406
Chris Carney – Pennsylvania (Clarks Summit, Shamokin, Williamsport) – (202) 225-3731
Steve Driehaus – Ohio (Cincinnati) – (202) 225-2216
Stephen Lynch – Massachusetts (Brockton, Boston) – 202-225-8273
Rick Boucher – Virginia (Abingdon, Pulaski, Big Stone Gap) – 202-225-3861
Loretta Sanchez – California (Garden Grove) – (202) 225-2965
Dan Lipinski – Illinois (LaGrange, Oak Lawn, Chicago’s southwest side) – (202) 225 – 5701
Joe Donnelly – Indiana (South Bend, LaPorte, Michigan City, Kokomo) – (202) 225-3915
Marion Berry – Arkansas (Jonesboro, Cabot, Mountain Home) – (202) 225-4076
Jerry Costello – Illinois (Carbondale, Belleville, E. St. Louis, Granite City, Chester) – (202) 225-5661
Nick Rahall – West Virginia (Beckley, Bluefield, Huntington, Logan) – (202) 225-3452
Solomon Ortiz – Texas (Corpus Christi, Brownsville) – (202) 225-7742
Alan Mollohan – West Virginia (Morgantown, Wheeling, Clarksburg, Parkersburg) – (202) 225-4172
Bill E Pilgrim
Ah, Beltway common wisdom.
The one thing you can count of people like TDW to do is sniff out an approaching bandwagon and hop on.
(Yes, in that metaphor bandwagons are the old kind driven by horses, thank you for asking).
This one was easy. The “OMG Democrats are gonna get so creamed in November!” peaked way too early. It’s just about ripe for the change to “OMG the common wisdom was wrong!” Look!”.
Funny that they never learn anything from that experience. Ah well.
Linkmeister
One can only hope that Mr. Milbank’s distinguished colleague Mr. Broder will soon write a column suggesting that repeal is hardly “bipartisan” and thus a bad thing.
Yutsano
Meh. Wake me when it’s all over one way or the other. If Nancy yanks the bill at the last second that’s the biggest hint the votes aren’t assembled yet. If it goes forward it’s in the bag. Too much positive energy going on right now to stop it really. But I just want finality.
Clothes are in the dryer and my other two-thirds are nowhere to be found. Sigh. I’ll tough it out a few more minutes though.
Bill E Pilgrim
@SiubhanDuinne: “The Vicar of Bray” may be an almost perfect name for Dana Millbank. If he didn’t already have such a good one already, rats.
Linkmeister
@Yutsano: Er, I know it’s nosy, but your other two-thirds what?
Yutsano
@Linkmeister: LOL. Mi famiglia, my other troublemakers on here. You know them better as AsianGrrl and TattooSydney. One is vacationing, the other is probably out knocking boots with someone. Or at least I hope she is.
freelancer
@SiubhanDuinne:
Bill E Pilgrim
@Linkmeister: @Yutsano:
Oh good. I was trying to figure out how you could lose two-thirds of your clothes while still in the house. I’m sure it can be done! But still.
Yutsano
@Bill E Pilgrim: English is obviously not my strong suit at 1 AM. It used to be when I was in college though. Damn adjusting Circadian rhythms.
Linkmeister
@Bill E Pilgrim: @Yutsano: I know “my better half” refers to one’s spouse, so the 2/3 made me think “polyandry?” ;)
Yutsano
@Linkmeister: I thought I was making a clear point there. Obviosly I haz clear point fail. Oh well, I’ll just have to adjust that expectation for myself or something.
Bill E Pilgrim
@Yutsano: No worries, the off-the-cuff imprecision of blog posting is part of what keeps it interesting. I’m glad to hear you have your strong suit to wear while the other clothes dry.
Ah the Circadian Rhythms. Great Canadian percussion band.
Yutsano
@Bill E Pilgrim: It gets even bettah. I’m wearing comfy fuzzy pajama pants.
I’m gonna have to look them up now. It could be entertaining.
Linkmeister
@Bill E Pilgrim: It’s the casual wordplay that makes it fun. Go read a blog called Making Light sometime. Here’s the latest open thread. That thread’s all jokes, 557 of them at last count. Other threads evolve, devolve, and otherwise capture one’s interest quite readily.
Anne Laurie
@SiubhanDuinne: Just so’s you know, I took your brilliant advice and scheduled Open Threads for 1pm, 2:30pm, and 4pm today. I won’t be around then (I should be in bed already, dammit) and I sent the other front-pagers an email telling them to delete those posts if they’re monitoring at the time. But if worse comes to worst, at least you deserve credit for trying to avert total FYWP meltdown.
Yutsano
@Anne Laurie:
Agreed. I think I’m gonna go keep that date with my pillow.
Bill E Pilgrim
@Linkmeister: For me it’s the entire raison d’etre of these bliggity blog things. At least the comments sections anyway.
If I ever find myself making serious pronouncements or having ponderous debates with what are after all a bunch total strangers, I try to remind myself to get a grip and return to playing with words again.
Stooleo
I do not condone violence but am I a bad person, that I am enjoying the collective freak out that is going on in Teabag Nation? The schadenfreude that I am experiencing right now is the most unctuous, sweet, and flavor filled….It is almost as good as Obama’s inauguration. I have a tear..and I am smiling. Good night B-juicers. :)
SiubhanDuinne
@Anne Laurie: Many thanks. I expect we’re going to see quite a crowd, and likely a pretty raucous one. BJ has been really weird the last couple of days (for me, anyhow, and I gather for some others as well) — eating individual posts in a random kind of way, and occasionally entire threads — and I was fearful that an overload tomorrow would be chaotic and frustrating. So thanks.
@Bill E Pilgrim: Yes, it would be a great name for him — especially as (a) his participation in national affairs is *vicar*ious in the literal meaning of the term, and (b) when he’s not whispering, he does tend to *bray*. But then I guess that’s true of most of the Villagers.
NobodySpecial
IF this thing goes through (I count no chickens, etc.), with the freakout going on, I’ll be sure to double down on helping Obama in 2012, if only because I want to see what he’ll do when he no longer has to worry about being reelected.
mcc
So when does Mitt Romney switch from opposing the hcr bill to trying to take credit for it
Xenos
@mcc: About one month after he loses the 2012 election. It will be time for him to set up the 2016 run.
Geoduck
I’m one of Brian Baird’s constituents. He’s officially announced he’s not running to re-election, and right to the bitter end he’s still doing his stupid finger-to-the-wind schtick. And I say this as someone who’s not terribly enthused about voting either way on this thing.
Bill E Pilgrim
@mcc:
Bing, meet go.
About as long as it takes Tea Baggers and Republican politicians (not to imply that those are exclusive groupings) to claim that they had always hated George W Bush’s policies and decisions too, moving the Iraq war into the “big Democrat spending” category.
@SiubhanDuinne:
And he’s basically just such a complete jackass, even and especially when he is whispering, thus for me why it fits him, in particular, so well. And somehow the vicar part fits a certain Villager piety and devotion to the essence of Villageriarity that he embodies better than others.
toujoursdan
My fear is that the Republicans will do to this what they successfully did to Social Security. They won’t repeal it, but will hollow it out to such a degree that it’s no longer going to meet its original objective – like Social Security was meant to keep seniors out of poverty. Is there anyone under the age of 50 who believes Social Security will be there for us? And how many people under 50 have put enough away on their own to make it through retirement comfortably? 10%, 20% of the population?
Who can we thank for this?
Mike Kay
you mean courtesan
Veteran, Great War of Yankee Aggression
I am having my own freakout this morning- my congresscritter, Loretta Sanchez is AWOL and may vote NO according to TPM.
I have called her office once a week for the past month or so, my MoveOn group held a rally outside her office, her aides have consistently told us she was merely undecided on a few minor points……
I had called her office yesterday to give encouragement; I read that Obama did the same.
Do you think its possible her staffer just didn’t hand her the “While You Were Out” slips?
Maybe the kid was all like, “Oh, this guy from Santa Ana called- oh, and some Arab guy with a nice voice called too. And your dry cleaning is ready.”
Fuck.
mclaren
Obama is in no danger whatever of losing the 2012 election. Palin remains the front-runner. Romney will never even get close to the Republican nomination, the anti-Mormon prejudice among the Xian fundamentalists who form the base of the Republican party makes that altogether clear.
The Repubs don’t have anyone sane enough or credible enough to challenge Obama in 2012 even if the economy is still tanked and we’ve hit a double-dip and unemployment’s up to 12% or higher. Would you rather be out of a job, or ruled by crazy people and still be out of a job? Not a hard choice.
And since the Republican platform for 2012 is pure insanity (shut down the IRS, end the stimulus, end unemployment benefits, shut down social security, liquidate labor, liquidate property, liquidate everything, the old Andrew Mellon prescription — let the whole country shut down and go broke and allow the “magic of the market” to fix everything, which will merely mean everyone stays broke and out of work, as in 1930-1932), well….there’s not much for the Republicans to run on in 2012, is there? “Our platform is more of the same stuff that collapsed the entire American economy — tax cuts for the rich and deregulation!” Wow, that’s a winner. And that nit Romney is already saying this stuff. We need to deregulate, we need more tax cuts for the rich. Mitt is partying like it’s 1999. That ain’t gonna go over real well with the 6 people applying for every one job opening out there.
The big danger is that the teabaggers will turn out this November and the Democratic voters won’t. That could lurch the House back in Republican hands, and we all know what that means. 2 years of bogus congressional investigations about Obama’s birth certificate, 2 years of meaningless congressional hearings about the alleged mythical crimes of ACORN, 2 years wasted that could have been devoted to actually solving America’s real problems.
marla
obama isnt danger
JenJen
I think David Plouffe hit the nail on the head this morning on “This Week.” Karl Rove was talking about the certain electoral disaster that faces the Democrats this November if they pass Health Care Reform today, to which Plouffe replied, “If Karl and a lot of Republicans want to call the election already, they ought to break out that ‘Mission Accomplished’ banner.”
I love a little snark in the morning.
Honus
@JenJen:
Obama hit it right on the head in on C-Span this morning in his address to the democrats: sarcasm to the effect that the republicans were telling the democrats that passing this bill was political suicide for them, out of their concern to see Nancy Pelosi remain as speaker and to help out Harry Reid. These people are transparent in addition to being evil and stupid.