Sam Wang predicts that de Blasio has a 90% chance to hit the threshold for avoiding a runoff, but primary polling is less solid than general election polling, so de Blasio is by no means a lock.
In other words, if you can vote in this election, it’s one where your vote will probably “count”. Wouldn’t it be great to have a liberal Democrat in charge of a city full of liberal Democrats? And wouldn’t it be a nice fuck you to Bloomberg and his racist bullshit?
Rex Everything
Hell yes. Vote de Blasio!
LanceThruster
VOTE EARLY…[and often]!
Hal
I actually feel sorry for Quinn. It has to be tough going from sure thing to the political fight of your life.
Steve M.
I think De Blasio will win the general, but it could get ugly before then. The GOP candidate will probably be Giuliani poodle Joe Lhota, which means Murdoch will turn the Post into an arm of his campaign. Expect de Blasio’s wife’s past (not only is she black, but she was an out lesbian before marrying him) to be raked over the coals.
Another issue — the #1 mancrush of NYC’s right and center is Ray Kelly. All the GOP mayoral candidates intend to keep him on if elected. De Blasio doesn’t. (Christine Quinn does — why do you think she got the Post‘s endorsement in the Dem primary?) So, yes, this will get nasty between now and November.
SarahT
Alex Pareene has a guide to the election. Except for being a bit too cynical (I think, anyway) about DeBlasio, it is pretty much spot-on, especially re, voting for Letitia James over Daniel Squadron & the vileness of Charles Hynes and Vito Lopez. Extra points for shout-outs to the Working Families Party and DecideNYC, too. Article here: http://www.salon.com/2013/09/10/de_blasio_i_guess_the_pareene_endorsements/
Ivan X
I voted for Quinn. I’m a pretty good liberalbot, and agree with De Blasio on more political positions, but this city by its very nature is in a daily war against chaos — it’s amazing that it works at all — and therefore demonstrated compentence and experience counts for more than political positions to me, and Quinn seems nothing if not competent and experienced.
schrodinger's cat
Can someone from NYC explain the election process to a non New Yorker? I tried reading about it in the NYT and was so lost.
vheidi
@SarahT: Yeah, but why did the WF endorse terrible incompetent hack “Dr.” Matthieu Eugene for the 40th (my district?) That was a very very bad pick.
schrodinger's cat
@LanceThruster: Isn’t that the Chicago way?
carbon dated
I just held my nose and voted de Blasio. All’s I’m saying is, don’t get your hopeys-changeys up to unreasonable expectations. He talks a great game but also has a history of palling around with slumlords.
On the other hand, Letitia James is a solid pick for Public Advocate.
J.D. Rhoades
@Steve M.:
Wait, what? I’m just a simple country boy, can someone ‘splain that to me?
schrodinger's cat
@J.D. Rhoades: See I told you, this election is way too confusing…
J.D. Rhoades
@schrodinger’s cat:
Well, I mean, it’s not like I have a dog in this fight anyway, but I found that statement startling.
Keith P.
@Steve M.: I see that Kelly’s already trying to interject himself into the race by complaining that no one’s asked him about terror. He doesn’t seem to realize that you can’t say “terror” and get everyone to flinch any more…been to the well too many times.
ruemara
@J.D. Rhoades: Because you can identity as lesbian (or gay), which would designate your main sexuality, but you can also fall for someone of the opposite gender and, yes, marry them and have a long happy one.
Bubba Dave
@Steve M.:
“Don’t vote for de Blasio! He’s such a manly man he can turn lesbians straight!”
I see what you mean; the ads practically write themselves….
TooManyJens
@J.D. Rhoades: That made me blink too, but hey, sexuality can be fluid.
Tom Q
@Steve M.: I agree. All the alleged Democrats who swooned for Giuliani and Bloomberg will decide deBlasio is the second coming of George McGoverm and find themselves drawn to Lhota, making it closer than it ought to be in a solidly Dem city. I don’t even entirely rule out a Times endorsement of Lhota…but expect that to have all the impact of their Quinn endorsement.
schrodinger's cat
@Tom Q: Isn’t Lhota the guy who wanted to kill these adorable kittens?
SarahT
@vheidi: True. But no one gets it right 100% of the time, and I’ll still go with WFP endorsements over, say, the NYTimes’, any day.
LanceThruster
@schrodinger’s cat:
Still better than black box voting, eh? It at least takes the commitment of showing up in person.
max
Wouldn’t it be great to have a liberal Democrat in charge of a city full of liberal Democrats?
Yes!
And wouldn’t it be a nice fuck you to Bloomberg and his racist bullshit?
Getting rid of QUuinn is the Fuck You. I was personally hoping for a Thompson-de Blasio runoff, because it would provide useful information and also because Bloomberg would run around in public with the cramps. But a de Blasio is fine too.
max
[‘Pulling for Spitzer too.’]
Cacti
@Hal:
Screw that. Nobody’s entitled to a political office. And if you think it’s your “turn” you probably deserve to lose.
J.D. Rhoades
@Bubba Dave:
I laughed.
schrodinger's cat
What about Weiner, still running or dropped out?
eemom
I know nothing about any of these gritty, earthy, street-wise politics.
I grew up in New York City…..and now…..now, in the approaching autumn of my years…..I live in a state where the best I can do is try to stop a deranged fucknut from becoming the next governor.
[slinks off whimpering]
Anybodybuther2016
@Cacti: I see what you did there. ;)
PurpleGirl
@schrodinger’s cat: Yes, I was just about to say that I would hardly consider him but after that comment by him… he has a snowball’s chance in hell. Of course I also hold against him much of what he did at the MTA to the subways and buses.
PurpleGirl
@schrodinger’s cat: Still running, but way behind the others.
Jay C
@schrodinger’s cat:
Not that difficult in concept, really: today is the (partisan) primary for the nominations for the various municipal offices up in the general election in November. The only kink is that there is a 40% “threshold” requirement for a “winning” candidate to get on the Nov. ballot: failing this, a runoff election between to top two will have to be held.
The major oddity this year is the sheer number of candidates in the running (7 Dems, 3 Repubs) – hence the runoff possibility.
The other major difference in NYC politics is the presence on the ballot, in most elections, of a number of minor parties: some of whom run their own candidates, and some who run/endorse the D or R. Otherwise the City’s political structure is just the normal perversion of the two-party system common in the rest of America….
schrodinger's cat
@Jay C: Thanks for the quick lesson, I couldn’t quite figure out the run-off business.
PurpleGirl
@Jay C: Very good summary.
Superking
Also, vote Stringer for Comptroller. All the unions are behind him, and Eliot Spitzer is a dick.
woodyNYC
I don’t normally vote in this way, but I voted for John Liu because I think he is the best candidate and I am angry at how he was kneecapped by the ginned-up fundraising scandal (He must have really pissed off Bloomberg with that City Time investigation). Only because my second pick is deBlasio and I figure he will win right away or I can vote for him in the runoff.
Pleased that I had picks ready for every slot and there were not Surrogate Court judges and whatnot. Who but real insiders ever know about that?
Hope Tish James wins; I would vote for her 100 times, she’s great.
Jay C
@Steve M.:
What you said re a possible Lhota/De Blasio race: except that I don’t think anyone will be going after Chirlane McCray: at least not on a personal level. Gay-bashing (in any form) is generally a loser in City politics: Lhota would have to furiously backpedal any sniping from his “supporters”, and in a closer-than-expected race (which analysis I agree with, BTW), no one can afford to toss any sympathy votes away.
That said, I think Ray Kelley’s future (and policing in general) WILL be an issue in the general. Whether a deciding one or not remains to be seen.
David in NY
Some notes — election made interesting by the return of the now-quaint lever-operated voting machines for one (or two!) last shows. Even more complicated than most NY stuff — we’ll be back to electronic machines in November.
I had expected de Blasio to be red-baited (pink baited? mauve baited? what’s the word these days?) by now, but the only whiff of that was Bloomberg’s whine about class warfare and how we should invite all the Russian oligarchs to live here. A definite boon to de Blasio even without Bloomie calling him a racist (by accident they claim). But there’s always the general — ‘specially if Bloomie trys to buy this one (but the backlash??).
Ah, the general. I don’t think either of the Republicans on offer, the head of the MTA or the CEO of Gristedes, is New York’s cup of tea. I’m rooting for the billionaire Catsimatidis, who was recently found personally liable for wage theft from his low-wage employees at Gristedes (lousy supermarkets) by the federal courts here. That makes him the anti-de Blasio, since de Blasio has (verbally) supported the fast-food campaign — effort of fast-food workers to unionize and get a living wage. And Gristedes is totally unloved here — almost as much as the MTA.
More fun to come, for sure.
David in NY
@Superking: “Eliot Spitzer is a dick” OK.
My picks — de Blasio, Tish James, Stringer, K. Thompson (over Hynes).
JGabriel
@woodyNYC:
You’re not alone. I’m doing the same, and for much the same reasons.
SarahT
@David in NY: Absolutely. Two things New Yorkers can agree on – our hatred of Gristedes and the MTA. But Catsimatidis is running on a pro-monorail platform, so he’s got that going for him, heh.
shelly
Wang, Weiner. New York City politics is fun!
David in NY
@JGabriel: If de Blasio misses 40% by two votes, I’m going to resign from this blog.
geg6
@Hal:
Fuck her. She hitched her wagon to Bloomberg and gave him a third term even though voters had already said no to that. Fuck her sideways. I feel nothing but glee that her bet was a very, very bad one.
jayackroyd
@Hal: Talked a senior house staffer this morning about this. Staffer pointed out it is really hard to do this. Council chair builds a record that involves compromise and other easily attacked positions. Not to mention that your bound at least to some degree to the mayor.
David in NY
Perspective on the mayoralty of NYC: I sometimes wonder what the City would be like if William Buckley had been elected mayor in 1965 or Norman Mailer in ’69 (with Jimmy Breslin President of the City Council). Not much different than it is now, is my usual conclusion.
carbon dated
@shelly: And don’t forget, Spitzer is a dick. Anyone influenced by identity politics under these circumstances will make Freud spin in his urn.
JGabriel
@David in NY:
Heh. DeBlasio’s not gonna miss by two votes, and even if he did, he’d still win the runoff. Liu’s a good candidate and he deserves some support — and unlike DeBlasio, Liu’s not a johnny-come-lately to a progressive viewpoint.
If it comes down to DeBlasio vs. Thompson or Quinn in a runoff, then DeBlasio will get my vote, as he will in the general, if he’s the candidate. But for the first round, I’m supporting Liu.
Jay C
@David in NY:
You’ll have company: my wife and I applied for absentee ballots, but, due to health issues, haven’t been able to get back to the City to pick them up in time. Bummer: we really wanted to stick it to Bloomberg one last time….
Villago Delenda Est
Should deBlasio win outright, it will cause that shitstain Bloomberg to have kittens on the street in front of Gracie Mansion.
I look forward to that with great anticipation.
Villago Delenda Est
@Superking:
Eliot Spitzer may be a dick, but he doesn’t flaunt it on the internet, unlike someone else we know…
David in NY
@Jay C: Should all be well. I remember requesting that absentee ballots be sent to where I was to be staying on vacation in Europe for the Koch-Cuomo primary, when the Post was trying to make Koch governor, and I really, really didn’t want that. Ballots never got to me, but Koch got crushed anyway. It looks like de Blasio can be expected to win, at least, here’s hoping.
Superking
@Villago Delenda Est:
No, but he does pay women for sex. So . . .
Honestly, I have a problem with people who buy sex. I know a bunch of people are going to jump down my throat and say that prostitution should be legal, just like drugs should be legal, but that ain’t the truth. Sex is not a commodity, and I don’t think we should pretend that it is. People who use prostitutes do so because they believe they should be able to control people’s (usually women’s) bodies for their own personal purposes. There is a real dehumanization involved in the transaction. Whatever anyone thinks of Spitzer, this is really disturbing behavior.
And the thing to keep in mind, as Alex Pareene pointed out in the Salon article someone else linked to, is that there is essentially nothing wrong with Scott Stringer. He seems to be a dedicated and serious public servant who will take the job seriously and advance liberal policies. So, why vote for Spitzer at all? You don’t need to. There is no clear way in which is actually preferable to Scott Stringer.
Jay C
@Villago Delenda Est:
Where Joe Lhota will vow to run them over with a subway train…..
Jill
DeBlasio was campaigning right near my polling place so I had the opportunity to meet him and his wife. I told him I wanted him to know I was voting for him because of his progressive values and that I expected him to hold onto and act on those values once he got elected. He said he would and the mistake progressives often make is thinking that they need to tread gingerly but that he thinks that is the exact wrong thing to do. That he believes progressives should be unapologetic and rather than back down they should strongly and unequivocally support their beliefs and continue to work to develop and enact progressive policies. He cited his commitment to raise taxes on the wealthy as evidence that he would lead as a progressive.
Nicole
Gawker has a pretty entertaining post on why NOT to vote for the various NYC candidates, supplied by readers. Some informative, some hilarious.
http://gawker.com/who-not-to-vote-for-in-tomorrows-elections-1277621111
It was fun to use the old lever machine again; I thought they were gone for good since we didn’t have them in 2012. The election attendant let me take my preschooler behind the curtain with me so he could get an early look at doing one’s civic duty. :)
Villago Delenda Est
@Superking:
Look, bozo, in a Ferengi society, like the one we’re living in, EVERYTHING is a commodity. Get over it, or make the Ferengi go away. It’s very simple.
If you need help getting the broomstick out of your ass, don’t come looking for me to help, unless there’s a consulting fee involved.
Tom Q
@Superking: Well, I can’t be quite as definitive as you about why anyone behaves as they do sexually. I barely understand my own sex life, and wouldn’t presume to judge anyone else’s.
However…we end up in the same place on this vote. I pondered going with Spitzer because this does seems a job for which he’d be quite good, and because, unlike Weiner, he’s eating a bit of humble pie by seeking a position well beneath his former one. In the end, though, I decided that Stringer is a solid public servant who would have won this without complaint had Spitzer not bigfooted his way in, so I’m going his way.
Shortstop
@Tom Q: a thoughtful and eminently reasonable comment.
rikyrah
Rooting for DeBlasio, because the I love his son’s 5 foot afro and his daughter and wife’s locks. …and his positions…
Come on, NYC!
La Caterina
Voted DeBlasio and the fabulous Tish James for public advocate. The Real Estate Board of New York poured $300K into the campaign of one the contenders for my council district. I voted for the guy who is actually a part of the neighborhood, Robert Cornegy.
Johannes is late getting home and may be too late to vote so I’ll be pissed too if BeBlasio fails to make the 40% by a few votes.
diana
@schrodinger’s cat: yes he is. The big thing in the NY mayoral race is that good librels should be be voting for straight white guy de Blasio instead of gay married lesbo Christine Quinn because de Blasio is not as much in the pockets of the 1% as Bloomberg’s stooge Quinn.
Beyond that I don’t even know, and I live here.