The Sean Trende theory that Republicans can safely ignore immigration reform is gaining a lot of traction, I’m seeing a lot of internets about it today. Today, Trende replies to critics of this idea, including Karl Rove. I’ll explain Trende’s main points and why I don’t agree with them.
Trende believes (1) that the Latino vote is not in any way monolithic and is therefore recoverable for Republicans (at least in terms of getting 35 or 40 percent) regardless of what happens over the next few years, (2) that Obama benefitted from a huge African-American turn-out because of being black without suffering much of a hit among white voters because of being black, and (3) that the Democratic share of the white vote could go much lower.
These things are almost impossible to predict or quantify. It is true that a 13% African-American electorate is a change from the past and an increase from 2008 but there’s no way to tell if it’s all about Obama (who was on the ballot in 2008 too of course) or if there were other factors, such as the possible backfiring of Republican voter suppression tactics. Likewise, various studies have indicated that Obama did worse among white voters than a similar white candidate would have (this isn’t the non-existent Bradley effect, but something that might have actually happened), but these studies are by no means conclusive.
Here’s why I’m with Rove and Lindsey Graham on this one. First of all, political pundits like to turn a blind eye to the importance of identity politics, because they’re in the business of painting a pretty picture of politics not of winning elections. Second, while Trende says his models show that Obama did no worse than a white candidate would have among white voters, there’s no way to know if his model is accurate. I love Obama but I don’t see him as a magic man; I don’t see why I should believe he was able to pump up the African-American vote without taking a hit among white voters.
Finally, a strategy that relies on increasing the Republican share of the white vote while not losing its share of the non-white vote just seems too hopeful to me. If the share of the population that hates you is increasing, it makes sense to do something about it, not pray that the rest of the population will magically start to like you more.
I might add that this is my beef with contarianism in general. Any sane betting person would bet with Rove on this one, the same way any betting person would bet that the planet will get a lot hotter over the next 100 years unless something is done about carbon emission. Making provocative, speculative points is a fun parlor game, and perhaps an interesting one, but that’s all it is. There are no Slatesters in political fox holes.
Anyway, as liberal, I sure hope House Republicans are listening to Trende.
There’ll be time enough for counting when the dealing’s donePost + Comments (110)