Perspective on the import of Monday's results in determining our nominee. Here are your last 2 Iowa Caucus winners. pic.twitter.com/iiKicKuo1B
— Tim Miller (@Timodc) January 29, 2016
ICYMI (In Case You Missed It), per Ed Kilgore at NYMag:
The final pre-Caucus Iowa Poll from Ann Selzer for the Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics arrived via an unusual live-release event reminiscent of the revelation of March Madness NCAA basketball tournament brackets. Its results were only maddening, though, to those hoping for a big upset.
Selzer has Hillary Clinton holding a 3 percent margin over Bernie Sanders (she led by 2 in the last Register poll earlier this month). It appears preferences are relatively stable…
Among Republicans, the Iowa Poll confirms the conventional wisdom that Donald Trump has overtaken Ted Cruz; he leads Cruz 28 to 23 percent, reversing a 25 to 22 percent Cruz lead in the last Selzer poll. But the bit of conventional wisdom passionately hoped for by many establishment Republicans — a Marco Rubio surge past Cruz into second place — just ain’t happening…
More granular detail (well worth reading!) at the link.
The media people are starting to get cranky…
Cost of a 1-night stay at the Des Moines Residence Inn on Feb. 1: $689
Cost of Loews Regency on Park Ave. the same night: $399
— Alex Burns (@alexburnsNYT) January 31, 2016
Iowans complaining about political ads = New Yorkers complaining about abundance of tourists
Folks, you asked for it, and ya profit from it
— Alex Burns (@alexburnsNYT) January 31, 2016
… not least because, as the Guardian notes helpfully, if the predicted winter storm hits, they may not be able to get the hell out of Iowa first thing Tuesday morning…
… Fourteen presidential hopefuls have spent all month dashing from bowling alleys and shooting ranges to high schools and farm museums in pursuit of the elusive caucus-goers needed to get their 2016 presidential race off to a winning start…
But visiting voters where they live is not the same as getting them to come out for you. Only a small fraction of Iowans tend to vote in party caucuses, and uncertainty over turnout will be compounded on Monday night by a major storm due to sweep in from the west and dump 6in of snow on the state by Tuesday…
Residence of first five voters I talked to at this Davenport rally: Illinois, Illinois, Illinois, Illinois, California.
— daveweigel (@daveweigel) January 30, 2016
Iowa really needs to hold free pandering awareness seminars every 4 years.
— Bob Schooley (@Rschooley) January 30, 2016
As someone who merely has to bear with the advertising spillover from New Hampshire (which is quite bad enough thankyouverymuch), I salute you, Iowans!
Tommy
What does that even mean? Did he mean campaign workers and not voters? I live in IL and went to college on almost the Illinois/Iowa border (not far from the Quad cities). I feel a kinship to the state. Doesn’t surprise me more than a few people from IL could go work there since our primary is so late in the game not to really matter.
lgerard
I had the strangest dream the other night.
Late in the evening of the NH Primary Donald Trump finally realized that all those voters telling pollsters that they supported him were actually just trolling him.
He swelled to enormous size, snatched up Megyn Kelly in the palm of his hand, and scaled to the top of Trump Tower.
Then there was something about Marco Rubio and an airplane, but that is when I woke up.
Just 9 more days to a Chris Christie ad free existence!
lamh36
So it’s the first real weekend of NOLA Mardi Gras season…at least 1 parade a day…if you know the history of the racial makeup of the NOLA parade krewes, then these “throws” from one of the “non-diverse” krewes, included these, lovely “confederate flag” trinkets…
Thrown at an uptown parade
Here’s another one…
This is likely in reaction to NOLA city council voting to remove those Confederate monuments…
Bastards…I don’t even feel bad wishing folks had thrown these right back at their asses.
Tommy
@lgerard: LOL. I am a somewhat vivid dreamer. I had a dream last night that seemed to go on for an entire day. That I was hired my Ted Cruz blindly. I went into the office the first day and it was pretty much all of dream. I was confused by everything and not knowing why I was there. Why I couldn’t get a W-2 form. What my title was. What I was making. Where my desk was. It went on, and on, and on …..
Last time I fall to sleep with CNN on and I bet Cruz was interviewed, because I can tend to take up things I hear on TV and incorporate them in a dream.
lgerard
@efgoldman:
Atrios’ characterization of Rubio as Potsie from Happy Days made me laugh out loud
srv
The excitement here in iowa can just not be simply expressed – I can imagine this is what it was like to be in Philadelphia in 1776.
Suzanne
@efgoldman: I bet he calls himself a constitutionalist, too.
Quoting matoko_chan for truth: SPIT.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@efgoldman: Even the first part(s), does he think the best intelligence services in the world just need a new coach? Clear eyes, full hearts, can’t lose? “Leadership” (TM Ron Fournier)? and of course, does he forget who got the Big Terrorist?
where’s he gonna bomb them where we’re not bombing them now?
MomSense
@lamh36:
I’d like to spit on them first and then throw them back and I really really hate spitting.
benw
Wait, I just realized that if we build a huge wall around Iowa RIGHT NOW and seal it off forever, we will remove every single R candidate from the United States AND not have to fight about Bernillary anymore! It’s genius!
Sorry, Iowa Old Lady, sacrifices must be made for the good of America…
MomSense
@benw:
Can we get New Hampshire to pay for it?
Tommy
@MomSense: Oh just admit it. If you can spit and nobody sees it, fine. Spitting in front of others should NEVER happen.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Um, I assume your referring to Hillernie?
/ducks/
kindness
The current process is absurd. The order of the states should rotate. No one should go first every single time. That’s kinda selfish & self centered now, isn’t it?
amk
@benw:
breaking news: corn futures hit the roof.
MomSense
@Tommy:
I object to spitting in public, and have never done such a vile thing, but I would sacrifice my principles to demonstrate my disgust with the confederate ignoranuses.
benw
@MomSense: obviously.
Suzanne
@MomSense: One time in 2012, in a fit of pique, I spit on the door handle of a truck with a Romney bumper sticker. In front of my kids. I don’t think my husband has ever been so mad at me. Ever.
Frankensteinbeck
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Yes. Surely you know how The Narrative works by now?
Tommy
@MomSense: Oh I don’t spit in public or on a public sidewalk. But I might have going for a long walk or mowing my lawn. And then I do it when alone.
benw
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: the difference between Hillernie and Bernillary is microscopic compared to the difference between them and Trumpauluckabeejebristieubiorinantorumore!
MomSense
@Suzanne:
You were provoked! Romney was an insufferable ass. He drove you to it.
benw
@MomSense:
With the poor dog strapped to the roof!
Splitting Image
Since this is pretty much the last chance to make a prediction without seeing the Iowa results, I’m going to stick with Jeb Bush for the Republican nominaton. Clinton is pretty much a lock for the Democrats.
The thing about Trump is that his lead depends so heavily on him staying in the lead. Clinton’s does too, but not to as great an extent. If Trump’s projected image as a winner doesn’t translate to him actually winning anything, then his balloon will burst pretty quickly.
It’s also worth remembering that this is the first time the Republican states have used a proportional model, so we don’t really know how things will turn out. Even if Trump or Cruz is leading the race on March 15th, when the winner-take-all events start, neither of them will have an insurmountable lead in terms of delegates. The Chamber of Commerce still has six weeks to settle on an “establishment candidate”.
Unless one of them does substantially better in Iowa and New Hampshire than the polls indicate, this will be the end of the line for Gilmore, Santorum, Huckabee, Fiorina, Paul, and Christie, leaving a field of Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Bush, Kasich, and maybe Carson. Assuming Trump and Cruz win both of the first two primaries between them, the others will try to hang on as long as possible thinking that there will be an influx of money from horrified billionaires. Bush, in spite of everything, is the most likely recipient. The ones who don’t see their coffers getting filled will start dropping out.
Not sure if O’Malley will stick around until South Carolina, but he’s already an afterthought, so no worries there.
magurakurin
@Tommy:
My assumption on what he meant was that at the very least those five supporters were most definitely not going to vote in the Iowa caucus and by extension more than likely neither were many of the other people at the rally. So, the numbers at the rally were no indication of what the actual turnout or vote might be. But that is a lot to read into a tweet, I guess.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@Suzanne: While I certainly sympathize with the sentiment, I think your husband had a point there.
Tommy
@efgoldman: I lived 15+ years in DC. I can’t imagine spitting on a platform or a METRO unit. Never. That would be disgusting.
SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel
@Tommy:
I do that constantly! I generally fall asleep to classical music on the NPR station, but at 5:00 a.m. Morning Edition comes on, and I know I weave the news headlines, interviews, and features into my dreams. I can’t tell you the number of times I’ve awakened to the sound of, say, Obama’s voice, or a story about the health benefits of kale or something, and my first waking thought is “Wait, what!? I was just dreaming about that!” Can be quite disconcerting.
Suzanne
@MomSense: Oh Lord, he was SUCH a tool. In a strange way, I actually kinda like Trump better than Romney, because Trump DGAF. Romney had that patent inauthenticity of someone who tries too damn hard all the time. If you’re an asshole, just own it.
Suzanne
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q): He did. I’ve never done it since.
I have been sorely tempted to cough on door handles, though. Especially when I have a cold.
Mike in NC
@srv: Were you giving out free blowjobs in Philly in 1776?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@kindness: I wonder if there are any plans to change the current system. Hard to see how getting the Dem primary front-loaded with more diverse voters– which I think should happen– without giving an even bigger advantage to those able to raise money early.
amk
@Splitting Image:
shrub3 crashes and burns his donors list.
nellcote
IOWA
(among likely Dem. caucus-goers)
Feelings toward Barack Obama:
Favorable 90%
Unfavorable 9%
(Bloomberg/D.M. Register/Selzer, 1/26-29)
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@magurakurin: I can’t imagine any other way to read that tweet.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Mike in NC: trolls and Madeira were the Originalist version of hookers and blow
MomSense
@Suzanne:
I must confess that I delighted in the photo of Romney looking forlorn and disheveled at a gas station not long after he lost the election.
Tommy
@
I get that some or even often. I had a dream that seemed like an entire day where I was working for Ted Cruz. I don’t keep a sleep journal on many things, so over the details vanish somewhat. This dream is as clear as day.
keith p
Huck’s gonna drop out and endorse Trump next week. Truly a sad, sad cycle for evangelicals, but at least after all this, the genuine believes will know who are the ones in it for the money.
Mai.naem.mobile
I was driving on Friday and this full size red truck cuts in which could have easily caused an accident if I hadn’t braked. Even my passenger who was on his phone and not really paying attention was shocked at the driving. Anyhow Mr. Red Truck had a Cruz bumper sticker affixed to his back window.
MomSense
@benw:
Remember the “I ride inside” campaign? I thought that was one of the best things that happened that election cycle.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym
The Goodreads page for Becoming Phoebe.
The Amazon page for it.
redshirt
@MomSense: I loved that photo. I also like the stories that came from Romney HQ election night. No defeat speech. Cancelling staffer credit cards that night. So much to schadenfreude in.
Major Major Major Major
@Mike in NC: what’s wrong with free blowjobs?
Pogonip
Gee, the media people might have to stay at Hampton or Holiday Inn with the peasantry. This is tragic!
ThresherK (GPad)
@Splitting Image: Proportional model? What does that mean for caucus states compared to 2012?
(Yeah, a bit late.for.me to.ask now!)
MomSense
@redshirt:
It was so good.
Major Major Major Major
@redshirt: I loved the SNL skit of him sneaking sips of milk from the bottles he’d hidden around the balcony.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym: Thanks for the pointers.
It looks like you need to update Menancholy Donkey too (broken image links, etc.).
Best of luck with it!!
Cheers,
Scott.
GregB
Can someone get me Peggy Noonan’s contact?
I saw a Santorum sign here in NH. We know what that means.
Noonan in 2012: “While everyone is looking at the polls and the storm, Romney’s slipping into the presidency. He’s quietly rising, and he’s been rising for a while…..
And there’s the thing about the yard signs. In Florida a few weeks ago I saw Romney signs, not Obama ones. From Ohio I hear the same. From tony Northwest Washington, D.C., I hear the same.”
The day before the 2012 election article by Noonan should be read yearly like T’was the Night Before Christmas.It is a study in beltway fantasy.
benw
@MomSense: @MomSense: the reelection of PBO, the 47% video, the binders full of women, “Please proceed, Governor,” the list goes on and on.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym: Yay! Oh, and congratulations, also, too.
Ken
@GregB: Do you mean you want to contact Noonan, or you want her contact for whatever drugs she’s been using since, well, forever?
MomSense
@benw:
Oh and horses and bayonets. So much win.
magurakurin
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
The system has more or less been changed every single election cycle. The very first state primary was Oregon in 1910 but the first 50 state primary wasn’t until 1976. New Hampshire’s big claim to fame is knocking out Harry Truman in 1952 and when Vermont and Mass tried to make a regional New England primary, NH resisted. California tried to move up in importance and changed to March, so NH and Iowa changed to January. Puerto Rico and the the other Territories have been added, the states primary dates constantly change and this year we had the big “debate schedule controversy.” In 2008 Michigan and Florida got sanctioned for changing dates, after the 1968 convention “super delegates” were gone, then they were back again in the 80’s and their relative number changes from cycle to cycle. The list of changes goes on and on.
But the idea of a one day national primary is a bad one. If that were true today, Sanders would have had no chance at all and Trump would be a shoe in (although I think both things are true anyway.) It’s kind of like college football bowl games and the NCAA champion. Lot’s of history, lot’s a tradition and entrenched interest that make it hard to find a perfect system. And it is, after all, a party nominating system. It’s whacky but it is also completely American in its style. What are ya gonna do?
FlyingToaster
@efgoldman: RtR’s being paid to think ¿Jeb? can’t lose.
lgerard
@MomSense:
I should tell you about my “brush with greatness” concerning Mitt
About half way through his reign as Governor I was waiting for a train at the Park Street T station..and here comes Mitt surrounded by a pack of his droids. I don’t know if he was trying to show that he was a regular guy, or was just curious as to what those stairways on the sidewalks downtown lead to.
Anyway, he is waving and nodding to people, when out of nowhere, here comes The Beacon Hill Cat Lady*. She gets right in his face and starts screaming ‘You killed my cats! You killed my cats!”.
Mitt looked like he was being confronted with an alien visitation, I actually though he was going to pass out.
Just then a train came and half of Mitt’s droids shoved him into the car while the other half pushed The Cat Lady out of the way. I learned later that he got out at the next stop and beat a retreat back to the State House. I just wish there had been cell phone cameras back then.
* The Beacon Hill Cat Lady was one of those animal lovers who had an apartment filled with about 100 cats, largely deceased. She became a major news item when it was discovered that she had a second apartment filled with the same. She spent the next few years as a local gadfly, haunting the State House and filling innumerable lawsuits against anyone and everyone until she was finally bared from the court system. She, of course, had a website for many years until it disappeared a few years ago/
PhoenixRising
@lgerard: cool story bro .
Really. I can just picture the Mitt Mafia of Eldees whisking him onto the green line.
Matt McIrvin
@Splitting Image: The money guys are in the process of convincing themselves that Trump isn’t so bad and they can live with him. There was some of that in the recent articles about how establishment Republicans mostly prefer Trump to Cruz. They think they can control Trump because he really has no discernible ideology. They figure that if he got elected President he’d call them up in a panic asking for sagely advice. I think they’d be in for a rude awakening.
MomSense
@lgerard:
I can picture the scene. He always looked so uncomfortable especially around humans.
magurakurin
@MomSense:
Mitt just always struck me as if he was just painfully killing time here waiting for his golden ticket to Kolob.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
Now that Texas has the first cases of the Zika virus, Trump will call for building a wall around Texas and his poll numbers will go up, amirite?
GregB
WMUR just dropped the latest NH poll. Jeb!ster is in 6th place.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: Yeah, I’m trying to figure out how to deal with the broken links.
Matt McIrvin
@GregB: Not everything about that Noonan article was wrong. I think she did correctly gauge Romney’s feelings: at that point, he sincerely thought he was winning.
J R in WV
@magurakurin:
You need to keep us informed for the rest of the election cycle!!
Thanks for the great coverage of Mitt’s election run!
ThresherK (GPad)
@FlyingToaster: That reads as
to many of us. It is a head-scratcher.
benw
@Matt McIrvin: the way the entire Republican apparatus bought the “unskewed polls” bullshit is both hilarious and chilling. Fucking Rove didn’t even believe Romney could lose while he was screaming at a couple of flabbergasted FN data guys on live TV.
FlyingToaster
@efgoldman: You’re right; Splitting Image has been around for a while.
But there’s no way ¿Jeb? can cheat his way to a win in either Iowa or New Hampshire. Iowa being a caucus state, and NH using paper ballots. And the loser stink means he goes nowhere after that.
I don’t see many of these riders in the Klown Bus lasting to March.
Right now I think Trump wins the first 3, since Cruz shot himself in the foot in Iowa (Dude; do NOT diss ethanol in Iowa. Didn’t you learn anything from watching The West Wing?). Which means no caravan of Brinks Trucks can save the “smarter brother”.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym: Got the images back. Now I’m just trying to figure out how to add a link to the “Buy Now” text.
Matt McIrvin
@efgoldman: If you’re implying that RtR is srv, both of them have been around for a long time, and were getting into fights with each other for a brief time in 2015. I suppose they could be twin sock puppets, but their styles are a bit different.
I’m pretty sure RtR is the same guy who used to call himself “Reality Check” and various other names and was pumping Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008. UNLIMITED CORPORATE CASH, SHOCK POLL! SHOCK POLL! and such.
Splitting Image
@efgoldman:
I dunno, really. Sunk cost fallacy? If Rubio or Kasich were better alternatives, they’d be leading Bush in the polls by more than they are.
I just don’t think that Iowa and New Hampshire are going to get to decide this one, at least on the Republican side. As bad as Bush’s campaign has been, he really is a spineless, toadying sycophant to the big money boys and the meanest, most spiteful piece of shit in the race to everyone else. What more could the Republicans want in a candidate?
PaulW
the reason Iowa is important for the Republican campaign is that up until now the polling highs for Trump were just based on Likely Voters than on Actual Voters. If the turnout for Trump is consistent with (proportional to) the polling numbers, that will mean he *is* going to get sizable turnout in the other states… where he is comfortably ahead of nearly everybody. And given how the delegation counts are portioned out by either Winner-Take-All or Winner-Take-Most (which was set up back when the Party leadership wanted the likely Establishment leading candidate to win easily), there is every likelihood Trump can wrap up the delegate numbers for the nomination by mid-March when Ohio and Florida primary.
FlyingToaster
@Splitting Image: Testosterone, from all media reports.
PaulW
@Splitting Image:
Regarding Jeb: most of the news reports about his campaigning at the state level has been muted, low-turnout affairs. I can’t think of anybody I know who’s Republican openly supporting Jeb: even here in Florida the bumper stickers showing up are Trump, Christie or Cruz. Very unsettling to be honest.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Ken:
Gin, lots of gin.
Mike J
@efgoldman: T
I am all for letting the audience at the Apollo Theater decide the entire election.
Ruckus
@Splitting Image:
Absolute frothing at the mouth stupidity, racism, misogyny and hate.
You did mean the voters, didn’t you?
FlyingToaster
@efgoldman:
But some of them (cough Santorum cough Huckabee cough Gilmore) have been running on fumes the entire time. And they’re still here.
Shrub may still be around in March, but his money can’t buy him the votes he needs. The RNC needs to smell the coffee; if it’s a contest about dick-swinging, then the guy making the most noise while dick-swinging is likely to win. They can put whatever rules they want in, but their electorate just DGAF.
lgerard
Does it seem ironic that the Republican convention is going to be held in something called The Quicken Loans Arena?
satby
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym: congrats again! The cover looks really good.
Splitting Image
@Matt McIrvin:
Totally agree with you here, but the question is whether they’ll get that awakening early in the primaries or after November. Trump’s public persona is that he’s the only guy who will tell the other billionaires to screw themselves. Now he might tell the big boys in private that he’s only telling the rubes what they want to hear, and they’ll give a great sigh of relief and direct the Brinks trucks to a Trump PAC, but I also think that the reason Trump channels resentment against the elites so well is because the elites don’t think Trump is good enough for them, and he’s been resentful of that for years. No telling what Trump will do if some of the high rollers try to lay down the law and he gets his back up. We’ll see, I suppose.
Ruckus
@FlyingToaster:
It sounds like you are making a common mistake. Those three are not in it to win. They are running for the money, nothing more, never were. No losers other than Cruz, Cristie and Rubio ever expected to win, OK maybe Walker, but he had loser stench so bad the only people who thought he had a chance were his owners.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@lgerard:
OMG I remember that Beacon Hill Cat Lady!!! What a kook – didn’t she have a freezer full of cats? That’s a hilarious story about Mitt. What a couple of freaks.
cokane
that first tweet by Tim Miller shows a failure to understand the difference between ordinal and empirical numbers. Santorum technically won Iowa but it was literally an EIGHT vote margin over Romney.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
speaking of sugar daddies
funny, I wouldn’t have thought Cruz was war-mongering enough for Shelly, and didn’t he say last time that he thought Santorum was too nutty on social issues?
Amir Khalid
@efgoldman:
I have no idea what Gilmore is doing. It has been months since I heard about his campaign. I imagine he’s napping some place comfy, his hands and feet twitching like those of a pet who’s dreaming that he’s running. If he wants to be anyone’s Veep, this is a passing strange way to go about it
danielx
Naturally, there’s no tradition of fleecing visiting yokels in NYC….clearly this reporter is a soshulist who has no grasp of the free market system. And then there are those Iowans (at a guess not an insignificant number) who would just as soon spray Raid on visiting journos as pick their pockets….this is one of those times I wish I was on the Twit Machine.
Mr. Burns, to quote the late Glenn Frey, I’d like to find your inner child and kick its little ass. If having to expense an overpriced hotel room is the worst hardship/indignity you encounter out there in the frozen wasteland* as a representative of the NYT, you’ve got a pretty decent gig. Getting well paid to cover one of the biggest political shows so far this century, and you’re spending time bitching or even talking about that whole supply/demand thing? Is this, like, the first national campaign you’ve covered, and if so, how the hell did the Times pick you, and why? If it wasn’t for the inconvenience to the locals, I’d wish that your condescending ass be snowed in out there for a week.
NotMax
@efgoldman
This.
Iowa (and also New Hampshire) serve not so much as selection processes as they do as rejection contests.
Or at least functioned that way in a pre-full blown Citizens United universe.
Omnes Omnibus
@NotMax: Bad link to efg.
lgerard
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
She had several. She eventually moved to Plymouth and repeated the same scenario again, albeit on a smaller scale. I believe she went to jail for a while. She was a legend in the local court system between her endless lawsuits and her self representation in criminal cases. They got tired of her pretty quickly.
I actually had an interview with her once. I work for a nonprofit on Beacon Hill and she inquired about housing services. She was very polite but I must admit I was relieved to tell her that she did not fit our client criteria and that I could not really help her.
NotMax
@Omnes Omnibus
Logy after arising from a luscious nap.
@efgoldman
NotMax
So, Omnes, as well as everyone else, up for music linkage as a non-politics diversion for a while?
For no reason I can suss out, this long forgotten hit song traipsed through the windmills of the mind last night, a tune I hadn’t given a microsecond’s attention to in over 40 years.
RB1123
@srv:
Really? Like a bizarro Philidelphia in 1776?
Iowa should not be allowed to vote, you people are stupid.
magurakurin
@efgoldman:
You can’t say “Rick’s Cafe Americain” on here? Damn.
NotMax
Because of so many comments on this thread related to dreams.
policomic
Yeah, Weigel’s tweet about Davenport is bullshit, because Davenport is RIGHT on the IA / IL border–one of the Quad Cities, which actually sit on either side of the state line. I mean, it’s like saying the St. Paul Chamber Orchestra is phony because some of its audience lives in Minneapolis. But a true journalist never lets facts get in the way of cynical know-it-all snark.
Frankensteinbeck
@Splitting Image:
If Trump can’t turn polls into votes, I give it to Rubio. Rubio is not a good politician. He’s Romney level. But Jeb:< is a train wreck. At the moment Bush 3: Direct To DVD is keeping competitive numbers with the other nobodies because Trump has sucked up ALL The oxygen in the room. If Trump and Cruz die and he has to compete for number one, the constant barrage of own-goals will resume. I don't even know how that man got elected in Florida. I have never seen such an incompetent politician.
@benw:
The news media bought it, too. I was watching CNN on 2012 election night, and when the results came in, the anchor covering it exclaimed that this was impossible because America is a center-right nation. Disgusted, I switched to FOX to at least enjoy some shadenfreude, and got there just in time to watch Rove’s brain melt out of his ears.
bin Lurkin'
This Bernie Boomer thinks Clinton is very likely to faceplant Iowa, if not and she actually wins the nomination you’ll get to see Trump run ads that will make this look quite tame.
What makes Hillary happy?
What makes Hillary mad?
I’m frankly damn terrified tonight, she will get destroyed in the general.
Oldgold
The GOP tv ads are odd. The second rank are firing at each other and leaving Trump alone. In particular, Cruz and Rubio have been savagely attacking one another.
Trump has been running very few tv ads.
jl
I agree with Krugman in his NYT blog post today. There is no doubt about the GOP outcome, it will be horrible, and horrible down quite a ways from the winner.
jl
@efgoldman: I don’t see how either Democratic candidate gets destroyed in the general. They will be running against crazy grifters who can’t put two coherent sentences together. Only thing I worry about is the HRC email scandal, but so far that has been complete BS.
Sanders needs to quit stumping to appeal to like minded people, and start explaining and persuading to reach primary voters in more conservative big state primaries. He don’t seem to want to do that.
But some commenter named efgoldman has claimed Sanders is just a stalking horse anyway, so I don’t see why you are so riled up about the pinko coot.
Oldgold
Sanders has a closing ad where he speaks into the camera. It is poor. Looked old, tired and a bit angry. Should have stayed with the uplifting Simon and Garfunkel ad as his closer.
Clinton’s closer is only so-so.
magurakurin
@efgoldman: Exactly this. There really is nothing wrong with Iowa going first. The problem is the idea that Iowa is the most important and critical state. Somebody has to go first, but what can you do? You campaign with political media have not the media you wished you had.
magurakurin
@bin Lurkin’:
The you should be afraid. Very afraid. Because Sanders going to be destroyed in the primary. Save some money to send to Clinton’s general election fund. I’m actually saving all my money for that.
Frankensteinbeck
@efgoldman:
Nope. Let’s say they get the equivalent of a no-confidence vote for Ryan through. Who will replace him? Nobody. Ryan’s arm had to be twisted by Boehner just so Boehner could quit. Similarly, the Tea Party has been able to block legislation because fucking Boehner refused to allow any votes that couldn’t be passed with Republicans alone – which is very, VERY not standard operating procedure in the House. Boehner, whiny incompetent that he was, succeeded fantastically at one thing – blaming the Tea Party for his own malfeasance.
jl
@efgoldman: I thought you dismissed him as a stalking horse, which means to me that he is not serious,and has some unnamed ulterior motive for the campaign. Maybe it was some other commenter. Sorry I mistook.
magurakurin
@NotMax:
nice. It’s wonderful hits like that that make this such genius.
jl
Regarding the enormity of the HRC top secret emails. apparently one of them is a NYT article.
Hillary Clinton Definitely Going To Email Jail This Time For Sure
By Doktor Zoom – January 30, 2016 – 12:13p
” Clinton herself said in a recent NPR interview that at lease one of the newly “top secret” documents included a New York Times article about the Obama administration’s drone program:
‘ How a New York Times public article that goes around the world could be in any way viewed as classified, or the fact that it would be sent to other people off of the New York Times site, I think, is one of the difficulties that people have in understanding what this is about. ‘ ”
http://wonkette.com/598345/hillary-clinton-definitely-going-to-email-jail-this-time-for-sure
A commenter related how during Pentagon papers, classifiers would stamp through whole piles of documents ‘top secret’, including newspaper articles.
This might be a case where unclassified info in the NYT articles matches some classified report, so the insane US security classification rules say that if it is in the same pool of access it all has to be classified.
After Adam S puts up a Yemen post, maybe he could do an explainer on the US national security system, assuming that it could be explained.
Frankensteinbeck
@jl:
I have some problems with Bernie. Mostly I think his goals and plans to get there are oversimplified to the point of uselessness. But personally, I definitely think he’s serious about being a candidate, seriously wants to motivate people, is honorable and honest, and his overall message is a fine one that should be spread wider. His policy may be inferior, but I’m happy to have him on our side.
Frankensteinbeck
@efgoldman:
…oh, a poker!
jl
@Frankensteinbeck: I still think he is making a positive contribution to the primary. And, from an economists point of view, i think his policies are just as sound, sometimes more so than HRC’s. But I don’t see how he can win with the way he is presenting and (not) explaining them.
I don’t see a problem with having single payer as a goal. I think he needs to explain how it can be a useful goal, and that such a goal can be used to strengthen the PPACA until we get to single payer.
He could persuade a lot more people about the wisdom and feasibility of this Wall St ‘tax on speculation’ if he called what it has been reported to really be, a financial transactions tax. There is a lot of evidence that it a great tax to reduce wasteful socially useless financial trades, evidence is that it fall almost completely on Wall St financiers, and it reduces the size of the financial sector over time, and there is a lot of evidence, from radicals like the IMF, that the US financial industry is so big it is hurting our economic growth.
I think Sanders could be making a lot more rapid progress, in for example SC, if he would start explaining more and stumping less. But he is what he is, I guess.
If he wins both IA and NH, and that gives him a lift in SC, then he might do well enough in next round of primaries to still have a shot. But I am growing increasingly doubtful. We will see what happens tomorrow.
goblue72
@efgoldman: I don’t define my support on the terms of my enemy. If the best argument that Democrats have is “we aren’t Republicans”, or “vote Democrat, and confirmation hearings get easier” or “vote Democrat, the best you can hope for is stalemate” – then Democrats deserve to lose and Trump deserves to be President.
I don’t expect a revolution. That kind of talk is standard political vision statement. You know, like “Change we can believe in” or “Yes we can” – the campaign slogans of a certain candidate in 2008. Criticizing a politician for that kind of stump speechifying is to engage in straight ahead bullshit.
What I do look to is the larger policy statements and broad outlines of the direction the Presidential candidate is arguing that the country should go. That is, by and large, how Presidential campaigns work. It is not about “who has the most detailed policy statements that have the highest likelihood of success if attempted to be implemented today”.
Goblue72
@jl: Agree with this. Both that Sanders at end of day needs less stumping, more explaining – as well as that a number of his policy proposals are more well thought out, more progressive, and far less radical than his detractors amongst the Democratic Party give him credit for.
And let’s be clear – there’s a sizeable contingent of the Democratic Party elite & leadership that do NOT want the economic status quo significantly upended. They are perfectly happy having the focus be on social issues like gay marriage, abortion and the like. But significantly taking a whack at economic elites, at Wall Street, at actually supporting unions for a change? Fuhgettaboutit.
And until that changes, we will see worsening economic inequality, and another decade of declining real wages to go on top of the last 40 years. And at some point, folks will get so desperate & afraid, that a Trump like candidate actually could win.
bin Lurkin'
@efgoldman: I’m right next to the Heart of Dixie and a lot of people would call me poor white trash to look at me, I basically look like Bernie on the stomping ants side of a three day binge and my home still has the wheels under it. Judging from my family, friends and neighbors you might be mistaken. Not even all poor white trash are as stupid as you might think, more than a few of us just don’t give a possum’s fart for appearances. Bernie actually knows country living and farming and it shows.
I had one of my neighbors come to me recently and basically say “How the fuck did you know?” I had told him among a whole lot of others to listen for the name Bernie Sanders about a week after he announced and that I thought he had long shot chance at becoming the next POTUS, that was back when Bernie was getting virtually zero press and almost no one down here had ever heard of him.
I’m a White Trash Girl
jl
@bin Lurkin’: Thanks for the link. Nice song. You are welcome here, as far as I’m concerned.
bin Lurkin'
@jl: Thanks, I’ve actually been here since the days of Birdzilla! but post very rarely.
Another one you may like.. Girl in a Country Song This one cracks me up every time I watch it.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym
@goblue72: Okay, you prefer that your politicians sell you a fantasy than what they’ll do in the real world. Got it. I’m going to opt out of that, though.
evodevo
@Mai.naem.mobile: Here in Ky they usually have a “Friend of Coal” license plate (for realz!) ….
different-church-lady
@policomic: They get to caucus in Iowa if they live in IL?
different-church-lady
@goblue72:
Thankfully that’s not at all the best argument they have, no matter how many times certain people say that on the internet.
policomic
@different-church-lady: Of course not. But a person might drive a mile or two to see a candidate speak. The Quad Cities constitute a single metro area, approximately half of which is on the IL side of the river. There’s nothing unusual about Illinoisans showing up in Davenport; a lot of them work there, shop there, or go to events there. But they can’t legally vote or caucus there. You have to live not only in the right state, but the right caucus district to caucus.
Matt McIrvin
@different-church-lady: On Crooked Timber, whenever the subject of the duty to vote comes up, Daniel Davies likes to take the anti-voting side, mostly to be contrary, I think. Anyway, what he sometimes says is that asking “but what if the Tories get in?” resembles extortion, and he isn’t having any of it.
To me, it’s an extremely strong argument; I think of elections these days mostly in terms of the downside risk of greater catastrophe.
different-church-lady
@policomic: Well, the tweet says ‘voters’, so I dunno where the mix up is.
FlipYrWhig
@Matt McIrvin: I often invoke the concept of “harm reduction” when talking to people about the stakes of democracy. I don’t think it’s shady or manipulative to take steps to reduce harm when ending that harm is just too far off, or too complex for now, and we need to buy time. Conservatism is that harm. Do what you can to reduce it. How is that a bad argument?
different-church-lady
@Matt McIrvin: For the most part, “Enjoy your President Trump” is only used as a comeback for “I’m taking my vote and going home if my candidate doesn’t win the primary.” Yes, it’s occasionally deployed by the intellectually dishonest before then.
The idea that democrats have nothing to offer other than a firewall against republicans is just rhetorical horseshit, deployed by the narcissists of small differences.
The Other Chuck
@magurakurin:
Other than months and months of airtime and candidate attention devoted to fawning over a blindingly white state with 1% of the population. The only solace is that these days it’s ultimately irrelevant to actually picking winners.
DCF
@Goblue72:
What We’re Seeing with Bernie Sanders Was a Long Time Coming
The deep progressive roots have finally surfaced in Iowa.
http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a41691/bernie-sanders-iowa-progressive/