Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

A last alliance of elves and men. also pet photos.

Accountability, motherfuckers.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

Everyone is in a bubble, but some bubbles model reality far better than others!

Glad to see john eastman going through some things.

Republicans don’t trust women.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

Joe Lieberman disappointingly reemerged to remind us that he’s still alive.

“Why isn’t this Snickers bar only a nickle?”

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

T R E 4 5 O N

The GOP is a fucking disgrace.

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

Ah, the different things are different argument.

I conferred with the team and they all agree – still not tired of winning!

Usually wrong but never in doubt

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

You are here: Home / Politics / Trumpery / Russiagate / When The Going Gets Weird…

When The Going Gets Weird…

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Adam Weinstein now has enough information about Paul Manafort to string a narrative. Here’s where his Twitter thread starts. I’m going to try to make it into sentences and paragraphs, because I have desperately been looking for some narrative.

There is a new Wall Street Journal article out on Manafort. I don’t know what it says beyond what Weinstein tweets because I can’t access WSJ articles. Don’t tell me about the tricks – they don’t work.

We know that Manafort worked for Victor Yanukovich and his Party of Regions in Ukraine. They were openly supported by Vladimir Putin. Manfort consulted on the March 2006 parliamentary elections, which the PoR carried. That made Yanukovich a contender for Prime Minister. Later that summer, the Communist Party flipped to ally with him.

Between March and late summer, there was an incident in which people in Eastern Ukraine threw rocks and gas bottles at Marines on a NATO exercise. The basis for the protest was that NATO was interfering with Ukrainian sovereignty. Presumably the NATO exercise had full approval of the government in Kyiv.

The State Department believed that the PoR and the Communist Party were behind the demonstration. The WSJ reports that Manafort advised the PoR to “stoke [Yanukovich’s] base in the Russia-friendly Ukrainian east” and oppose NATO cooperation just before that demonstration.

So it appears that Manafort advised the PoR to mount a demonstration against US military. IANAL, but this looks to me like it should be illegal for a US citizen to promote violence against the US military.

If it is indeed illegal, this may explain Robert Mueller’s interest in Manafort. Actual crimes would be prioritized for investigation so that people can be flipped or prosecuted.

There are so many loose ends in the Donald Trump relationships with Russia that I’ve long thought that the most damning information is likely to come out of left field. Be ready for more weird stuff.

Reader Interactions

121Comments

  4. 4.

    Mnemosyne

    I’m surprised that Manafort hasn’t scarpered off to Moscow yet. What’s holding him back?

  6. 6.

    feebog

    Manafort will flip. He is the king Rat among a pack of weasels, he will hang Trump, Donnie, Jr. and anyone else in the way to minimize his jail time. I predict the first indictments are on Donnie Jr. and Manafort.

  7. 7.

    The Dangerman

    Hold on; we’ve been wondering about Russian Hookers giving Donald the Golden Shower treatment….

    ….and NOW things could get weird?

  8. 8.

    eclare

    If I were Manafort, I’d be worried about falling into a stray bullet….or drinking any tea.

  9. 9.

    Tony J

    @Baud:

    They’re already far beyond weird. The hope is that the weirder they get the more discombobulated and exposed our enemies become. Out of that maelstrom could well emerge the Era of Baud, because something has to, and why the hell not?

  10. 10.

    Schlemazel

    @feebog:
    To me the big question is will junior take the fall or will he give up daddy dearest? My heart says he maintains omerta but my brain says he is as chickenshit as the old man and this may also mean payback

  11. 11.

    Gin & Tonic

    @feebog: I remain completely convinced that Manafort wants to flip. He has no scruples whatsoever. I’m not convinced he has enough that Mueller wants, though. Or, alternatively, that Mueller has enough to hang Manafort and proceed with the rest of his program anyway.

    To those of us familiar with Ukraine, Manafort has been a known quantity for quite some time.

  12. 12.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @eclare:

    If I were Manafort, I’d be worried about falling into a stray bullet….or drinking any tea.

    In the bathtub, walking downstairs.

  13. 13.

    Baud

    @Tony J:

    Out of that maelstrom could well emerge the Era of Baud, because something has to, and why the hell not?

    Baud! 2020!: Like a cockroach after nuclear winter.

  14. 14.

    lamh36

    Mueller’s investigation is the ONLY way we will get any real possibility of holding someone accountable for the bullshit …

    Cause the Senate/House “investigations” are complete and utter bullshit…it sadly hilarious

    Have folks talked about this tweet this morning from Chuck Grassley?

    @ChuckGrassley
    Follow
    More
    Just had ph call from Pres Trump + he assured me he’s pro ethanol +I’m free 2 the ppl of Iowa he’s standing by his campaign PROMISE
    9:27 AM – 30 Aug 2017

    What da fuq? Tell me that don’t seem shady as hell, and Chuck Grassley sure as hell must know how shady that tweets looks.

  15. 15.

    realbtl

    OT, I’m 68 and got a new hip Monday at 9:30 AM. I’m home and shocked at how easy and low pain this has been. I’ve had dental implants that hurt 10X. Don’t wait, do it.

  18. 18.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @realbtl:

    That’s great to know! Hope the remainder of your “recovery” (if that’s even the right word) goes as swimmingly as the first three days.

  19. 19.

    feebog

    @Gin & Tonic:
    Manafort will be facing multiple charges of money-laundering. I would love to be in the interview where he tries to explain why he needed a dozen accounts in a Tunisian bank.

  28. 28.

    Barney

    @Cheryl Rofer, I know you said don’t tell you about the tricks, but … I could never read WSJ articles, despite the tricks of googling etc. people swore worked. Until someone said follow the link from a WSJ twitter account – @WSJ or a WSJ journalist tweeting their own articles. This worked for me, and has done so every time since.

  29. 29.

    The Pale Scot

    @Gin & Tonic:

    completely convinced that Manafort wants to flip

    I’m sorta hoping that Mueller turns the screw so tight that Manafart scoots to Russia and applies for political asylum. Which if Vlad sticks to his portfolio mandate from his previous career (the degradation of Nato’s in particular and the West’s in general political cohesion) he promptly turn downs down and ships Fart back to the USA.

  30. 30.

    WaterGirl

    @Gin & Tonic: OT, but how did your appointment with the (I won’t say the S word) go today? It’s been hard typing all day with my fingers crossed.

  35. 35.

    Thor Heyerdahl

    Nitpick…isn’t Kiev the Russian transliteration and Kyiv is the Ukrainian one? (Sort of like “The Ukraine” versus “Ukraine”.)

    Random thought for the tax reform law. If it gets to reading stage, someone should put in an amendment (and call it something like the Reagan Patriotic Taxpayer Amendment) requiring all members of Congress and the President make public at minimum their last 10 years of full personal/corporate taxes.

  36. 36.

    Mike in DC

    Yeah, state charges would put irresistible pressure on Paulie to flip. Maybe he doesn’t know everything, but he likely knows enough to at least knock down a few more dominoes towards toppling 45.

  40. 40.

    Cheryl Rofer

    I’m not sure Russia is a good option for Manafort. His guy Yanukovich was ultimately a loser. He’s there, but whether he (and by extension, Putin) would be happy to see the guy that didn’t manage to keep him in power is not clear. Putin might think it was a way to get under [someone’s] skin, but not much more value than that. And I’m not sure who that [someone] would be – maybe Trump. That depends on how much Manafort knows about what Trump knew and when. Now THAT could be kompromat. From Manafort’s view, however, having to check your tea and all the rest of your food with an alpha counter probably doesn’t sound like much fun.

  43. 43.

    trollhattan

    @eclare:
    No kidding. Umbrella poke, random offer of tea…so many ways to clear up a loose end. I’d be asking for full-time protection and practicing my singing voice if I were Manafort.

  44. 44.

    trollhattan

    @Cheryl Rofer:
    What do you suppose Russia might have done had Yanukovich been overthrown at some time other than the Olympics? I kept eyeballing Putin during his many event appearances wondering whether he was thinking “Optics schmopics, it’s not like than can cancel them now.”

    I thought the Yanukovich private zoo was a nice touch.

  45. 45.

    Gin & Tonic

    @WaterGirl: Thanks for your concern. I got a very positive interpretation. Some of it is kind of dependent on a CT scan I have scheduled for tomorrow, but on the basis of x-ray and physical exam (he did a lot more prodding and squeezing and flexing than anyone else has done) he is pretty well convinced that there is significant healing of the structural aspect of the radius. There are loose fragments, yes, but he’s not very concerned, indicating that they may just hang out like that forever. Since that is the non-load-bearing side of the radius, it’s not a real big issue. And since it’s non-load-bearing, the bone isn’t stimulated to growth there. Bones respond to strain. He expects the prospect of requiring bone grafts to be extremely unlikely at this point. About as good a report as I could have hoped for.

  46. 46.

    FuzzyDude

    @realbtl:

    That’s great news! My hip replacement surgery is on for 12 September, and I am so glad to hear that things are going so well for you. I am 54, and the doctor was very optimistic about a rapid recovery for me as well.

  48. 48.

    eclare

    @trollhattan: Saw your post earlier about Coulter, whew, for a while there I thought we were in uncharted territory, dogs and cats living together! Glad she got back to the classics, no one wants to hear the new stuff.

  50. 50.

    Peale

    @eclare: our congress should hold hearings on whether Hillary was involved. Dead ambassador hearings is pretty much all they know how to do.

  52. 52.

    Ohio Mom

    @realbtl: That pretty much matches my cousin’s report, although she did have some trouble with a resulting leg-length discrepancy. IIRC, PT helped with that.

    For some reason I can’t fathom, hips are easier than knees. My friend who did both knees — not at the same time but both in the same year — would not describe her experience as anywhere near easy.

    Anyway, congrats on your new joint. May it serve you well.

  54. 54.

    efgoldman

    @Peale:

    Dead ambassador hearings is pretty much all they know how to do.

    Based on available evidence, they don’t know how to do that either.

  55. 55.

    Gin & Tonic

    @efgoldman: I kind of suggested that if I had my druthers, I’d like to be all in one piece again. But if the only path to that is going under the knife again, then I guess I may need to adapt my preferences.

    It’s not directly comparable by any means, but recall when Michael Jackson’s face started to fall apart. Surgery, even well-executed “successful” surgery, has risks and isn’t always unalloyed improvement. You can make a problem worse by trying to fix it.

  57. 57.

    efgoldman

    @Ohio Mom:

    My friend who did both knees — not at the same time but both in the same year — would not describe her experience as anywhere near easy.

    My mom, my dad, and my mother in law all had knee replacements. Every one of them had problems. Theoretically I’m looking at one down the road, but probably not.

  58. 58.

    WaterGirl

    @Gin & Tonic: Yay! Double-yay, even! Pretty interesting that the top guy based his opinion in large part on what his hands told him rather than some fancy-dance-y technology. Hope your scan tomorrow comes out according to plan. :-) Thanks for letting us know.

  62. 62.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @trollhattan: That’s an interesting counterfactual. My memory isn’t good enough to recall any reason that it looked like the protesters targeted that time period. And the Putin of 2014 was not the Putin of today – would have been less likely than today’s Putin to send in the troops. Even when the Soviet Union was breaking apart, Gorbachev was reluctant to use military force, and Ukraine is now an independent country, so a fairly high barrier to overt interference. So maybe not much difference.

  65. 65.

    vhh

    @Thor Heyerdahl: The usage “the Ukraine” comes from the Russian I was taught in the 1970s, namely that one says “on (the) Ukraine” [на Украине] rather than “in Ukraine (в Украине).” This is because the word Ukraine derives from the root “edge”, and you say “on–not in— the edge”. This in turn reflects how Russia historically sees the Ukraine, esp. the eastern part: it is a buffer zone, and since the time of Catherine the Great, the Cossacks served Russia as a buffer force against the eastern (often Turkish) hordes. No doubt this annoys Ukrainians, since Kievan Rus’ (in western Ukraine) was the first Christian Slavic state, predating Muscovy, and a democracy to boot. Since Ukrainian independence, the usage has shifted to “in Ukraine” in Russian. But I have to make an effort to say it that way….in both Russian and English.

  69. 69.

    Amaranthine RBG

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    This is truly excellent news. I assumed this was going on, but great to see confirmation.

    Mueller is in control of the chessboard.

  70. 70.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    My memory isn’t good enough to recall any reason that it looked like the protesters targeted that time period.

    The Maidan protest movement began in November of 2013 as a reaction to Viktor Yanukovich’s flip-flip on the EU accession agreement. It started slowly and built up momentum throughout the winter. The events of February 18-21 of 2014 were triggered mostly by Yanukovich-controlled Berkut forces firing on the protesters. Once they’d opened fire on fellow Ukrainians, Yanukovich’s position became simply untenable.

  71. 71.

    Mike in DC

    I think Sater has likely committed state crimes as well. Maybe Cohen too. I’m just wondering when Bobby Three Sticks will actually wrap up and send a referral to the DOJ and/or House Judiciary committee.

  77. 77.

    mai naem mobile

    Dolt45’s ghostwriter Tony Schwartz was predicting he would resign in September. I don’t know what it was based on. Anyhoo,we can count on Dolt45 having a twitter meltdown tomorrow morning. I hope he doesn’t start a war with NK.

  78. 78.

    Alain the site fixer

    @Mike in DC: I wonder if fraud in regards to election or regulated political activity, at the state level, might be considered.

  81. 81.

    efgoldman

    @WaterGirl:

    I see your recent optimism is shining through!

    Too much doc experience of my own in recent years. Way too much.

    @zhena gogolia:

    I sense you know some orthopedists.

    Between mrs efg and me, we are unfortunately much too familiar with many too many specialties.

  83. 83.

    Feebog

    @efgoldman:

    I’m seeing the surgeon who did my wife’s knee next week. Don’t really want to do it, but I can’t walk more than a few feet without pain in my knee.

  85. 85.

    Baud

    I don’t care about Trump’s soft supporters any more than I care about his hard core supporters.

  88. 88.

    Mnemosyne

    @? Martin:

    Don’t worry, the dudebros will quickly come up with another excuse for hating her that’s totally not because she’s a Black woman.

  92. 92.

    efgoldman

    @Alain the site fixer:

    I wonder if fraud in regards to election or regulated political activity, at the state level, might be considered.

    My original supposition when Mueller was appointed was that he’d find all kinds of financial irregularities, mostly money laundering. having nothing directly to do with politics except as may regard campaign contributions from a foreign entity. I haven’t changed my mind.

  94. 94.

    Jeffro

    @efgoldman: I dunno…he’s smarter than me, and I can walk n’ chew gum at the same time. Why not both? (with the money laundering taking priority, probably)

  98. 98.

    Ruckus

    @Ohio Mom:
    Worked with a woman in OH who got both knees done at the same time (rheumatoid arthritis) and she was singing and walking 2 weeks later. But maybe the before and after comparison was better for her. She had gotten to where she could hardly walk with 2 canes prior to surgery, within 2-3 weeks she didn’t need any support and was thrilled.

  99. 99.

    frosty

    @efgoldman: My sister just had a double knee replacement at the same time and is doing fine. From what she said it sounds like the PT is critical. She was rebuilding muscles that hadn’t been used in 20 years when she was limping from the pain.

  100. 100.

    mike in dc

    @Jeffro: Well, no. Paulie. followed or preceded by Felix Sater, Michael Cohen and ultimately, Mike Flynn. I tend to doubt that Kushner will cut a deal before an indictment is issued. If Sessions is involved, that will be a delicate dance.

  101. 101.

    Ruckus

    @Gin & Tonic:

    You can make a problem worse by trying to fix it.

    I think you’ve stumbled upon the story line of my entire life.
    The problem is me.

  105. 105.

    Ohio Mom

    @efgoldman: When I recently complained to my Onc that I had too many doctors, she smiled and said, “You grow in age, you grow in wisdom, and you grow in doctors.”

  106. 106.

    Roger Moore

    @Baud:

    I intend to co-sponsor the Medicare for All bill because it’s just the right thing to do.— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) August 30, 2017

    Of course that’s Medicare for All, not single payer, so she’s obviously a neoliberal sellout.

  107. 107.

    Ruckus

    @efgoldman:

    Between mrs efg and me, we are unfortunately much too familiar with many too many specialties.

    Without including the mrs in this, as I wouldn’t presume to discuss her age as any older than 29, my experience is that once you pass the age of dirt, your familiarity with specialists does become rather personal.

  112. 112.

    Yutsano

    @realbtl: Both of my hips are fake. When I woke up from the first one even with the surgical pain I was like, “DO THE OTHER ONE NOW!!!”

    Sadly the surgeon wouldn’t do that.

  113. 113.

    Brachiator

    @Ohio Mom:

    When I recently complained to my Onc that I had too many doctors, she smiled and said, “You grow in age, you grow in wisdom, and you grow in doctors.”

    Definitely words of wisdom!

  114. 114.

    Betsy

    @efgoldman: there’s a guy here who’s nationally brilliant at them. You come down here and he’ll take good care of you. Superb track record. Just did my mom’s.

  115. 115.

    StringOnAStick

    For all the people facing knee replacement, being super tough and determined in your PT sessions in the critical first few weeks can’t be stressed enough. This determines your long term results.

  118. 118.

    J R in WV

    @Gin & Tonic:

    Congrats on such a good prognosis from this new guy. I respect and admire my orthopedic surgeon, and trust his advice. But I’m pretty cut and dried replacement for lack of cartilage, which when you do 12 a week, become pretty routine.

    He straightened out wife Mrs J’s legs, and got them to be the same length, which isn’t usually part of a routine knee replacement. Took several months for the second procedure, but when he was done, it was done right.

    Take care, enjoy NYC, the cultural center of the world!

    @StringOnAStick:

    YES, This, the rehab is critical. We were fortunate to have a real expert take us through our rehab, first my shoulders, then MRs J;s knees. A real expert, experienced, knows every tendon, nerve, muscle. That’s what it really takes.

    Plus doing the work!

  119. 119.

    e.a. foster

    Just another average American exercising his First Amendment rights, nothing to watch here, move along. O.K. Mr. M. is going to investigate and that ought to be a good thing, but if it goes to court, expect it to be a First amendment challenge and with the new trumpster appointee on the Supreme Court don’t wait for any convictions to stand.

  120. 120.

    the Conster, la Citoyenne

    I’ve scrolled through this whole thread, and didn’t see that there was a mention of Manafort hiring Tad Devine to work with him getting Putin’s candidate elected there, and again here. I don’t believe in coincidences. Tad Devine and Bernie are as complicit in RU meddling as Manafort. That Sanders campaign was the perfect platform for money laundering, with all those millions flowing in, and millions unaccounted for. Sanders went from deep in debt to flush with cash. Uh huh. It’s all going to come out, because Mueller’s following the money.

  121. 121.

    opiejeanne

    @Mnemosyne: Hey you. I tried to email you but your link from your name seems to be dead. I’ll see if the front pager will send you my email because I’d like to talk to you off the forum.

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