Trump’s comment just now is disturbing enough that I thought I’d step on my own thread.
POTUS and FLOTUS stood side-by-side in the middle of more than a dozen couples who were lined up for an official photo. CJCS Dunford and his wife stood to their left. An unidentified military leader and his wife stood to POTUS’ right.
“Tell us when you’re ready,” POTUS told the photographer. “Be careful, don’t push.”
“Our faces are tired,” one of the spouses joked.
A couple of seconds later, POTUS pointed around the room and asked members of the pool, “you guys know what this represents?”
“Tell us,” one reporter responded.
“Maybe it’s the calm before the storm,” POTUS replied.
“What’s the storm?” another reporter asked. “On Iran? On ISIS? On what?”
“We have the world’s great military people,” POTUS replied. “Thank you all for coming.”
Kristen Welker of NBC News asked, “what storm Mr. President?”
“You’ll find out,” POTUS replied.
“Give us a hint on your Iran decision,” another reporter asked.
POTUS said “thank you, everybody” and pool was ushered out of the room.
The historical norm for presidents is not to dick around with direct threats of nuclear war. “All options are on the table” is usually the maximum. But we now have a president who goes far beyond all maxima and is proud of it.
He has been taking heavy criticism on his reactions to Puerto Rico and Las Vegas, it is now public that his Secretary of State called him a (fucking) moron, the Russia investigations continue, with emphasis on the Steele dossier today, and Don Jr. and Ivanka’s little brush with the law was laid out in detail. There is probably more, but I depressed myself thoroughly yesterday trying to list everything.
Having to certify that Iran is adhering to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, Iran deal) has been eating at him. He said it’s the worst deal ever, and he can’t be wrong. It is part of Obama’s legacy, so he must erase it. And signing that certification says that he agrees with the conclusions of a bunch of furriners (the IAEA inspectors) about something he will never understand. Probably some of his advisors have tried to explain to him how the negotiation process works, and he probably doesn’t understand that either. And he can’t yell at someone to make it go away.
Add to that his penchant for game-show suspense, and the comment makes perfect sense. Now people must pay attention to him, the Great Decider, and try to figure out what he will do. It is a dopamine rush, not as much as when everyone in the arena shouts “Lock her up,” but it’s all he seems to be able to get.
There is a last-minute fix possible: Congress can change the law that requires presidential certification. Will they or won’t they? Tune in tomorrow!
Baud
Everything Trump says is meaningless.
Booger
Christ, what an asshole.
debbie
That’s exactly it: Game show suspense. FFS.
joel hanes
Why this is hell, nor are we out of it.
Corner Stone
Not to sound too out of it, but does this push Mattis, Kelly and McMaster into the place they all agreed to be?
Corner Stone
@Baud: To us. If you’re NoKo…
Amaranthine RBG
@debbie:
I think we are just about at the point where Trump is going to start inserting commercial breaks in his news conferences, complete with cliff-hangers right before the break to commercial. “That’s a great question Katy, and let me tell you, I am ready to take action on North Korea. I’ll tell you more right after this message from Lockheed Martin …”
Why not? He still owns all of his businesses. There is no “blind trust” He’s directly earning money from hotels where foreign poo-bahs stay in DC, from 100K memberships in Mar a Lago, etc. There are no meaningful ethical restrains in place or being enforced.
Bobby Thomson
This Republican-majority Congress can’t even pass tax cuts. No fucking way they enshrine Obama’s Iran deal into law.
Cheryl Rofer
Beth in VA
Why the fuck would POTUS say something so terrifying?! Does he not care how much he worries us? What a sociopath. God, I don’t know if we can take this, he’s ruining the country.
raven
@Beth in VA: Are you serious?
Davis X. Machina
You go below 35%, only a war will get you back above sea level.
It’s got to be Iran. He can do a Syria-on-steroids, today’s-the-day-Trump-became-president, air campaign.
Iran’s got significant asymmetrical means to retaliate, and it’ll piss off everyone else in the JCPOA, of course, but there won’t be any video of Seoul burning.
Doing North Korea means a couple hundred thousand casualties, and some thousands of them will be American servicemen.
Cheryl Rofer
Cheryl Rofer
Bobby Thomson
Does he
notcarehow much he worries us?LOLOLOLOLOL
low-tech cyclist
Do I have time to become a prepper?
Mike in NC
Maybe he’ll fire a few cabinet members tomorrow for insufficient loyalty. Caligula demands to be loved.
Major Major Major Major
@Cheryl Rofer: agree with Drezner.
Cheryl Rofer
@Major Major Major Major: That’s the way I’m leaning.
Major Major Major Major
@Cheryl Rofer: hopefully not just because we want it to be so.
Ryan
The Apprentice: Trump Island really sucks. I want off the Merry-Go-Wheel.
NotMax
Dangerous? Yes. Scary? Yes. Empty? Also yes.
“So help me, I’ll pull this
station wagonpact over to the side of the road.”jl
It might be that all that the vicious loon meant was he was ordering his central casting generals to come up with better plans, or else. Looks like Trump is planning something dangerous and ill-advised, and not happy with what the CCG’s have delivered. Don’t know why he doesn’t fire them and let Bannon and Miller do it.
Josh Marshall posted these remarks on his twitter, My impression is that they are from Drumpf’s remarks tonight.
John Marshall
@joshtpm
Trump tonight.
“….Moving forward, I also expect you to provide me with a broad range of military options, when needed, at a much faster pace…”
https://twitter.com/joshtpm?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Trump is a dangerous ass and moron.
maya
Well, hurricane Nate is supposed to hit the Gulf Coast….
Peale
My only thought…we throw Iraq under the bus next week and become the first and only government to recognize a Kurdish state and attack Iran preemptively to liberate its Kurds?
Ruckus
@Beth in VA:
Why would he say it
IANAD but my take is he’s a fucking narcissistic, racist, sociopath. He has been for a long time. He’s also showing dementia, and maybe that’s just dementia, which can happen with arterial sclerosis, which wouldn’t be out of line for someone at his age/physical condition/eating habits or possibly Alzheimer’s.
ETA Also he’s never been very far up the IQ scale in his life. If it wasn’t for his father’s money, he’d have been a janitor, who couldn’t hold a job for more that 6 months, or he’d be dead from pissing off one to many people.
And I do really need to apologize to janitors for that remark.
jl
From Marshall’s tweet on Trump’s remarks, I think best bet is that the ass was fantasizing out loud that if he yelled more and stamped his feet at the CCGs some more, then they would come up with a plan to ‘take care’ of North Korea without killing a hundred thousand South Koreans, and thousands of US and allied troops. Or that he could fire or stuff Dunford and Mattis on Iran because they want to stay in the deal, but they would deliver up to him some miracle military option to ‘do something’ on Iran anyway.
If that is what it was Trumpf is a pathetic moron of a vicious loon, and loser and a dope. Too bad he has his fingers on the nukes.
hilts
October 7, 2017 is the 1 year anniversary of the public release of the Access Hollywood tape.
Is anyone aware of any organized protest, demonstration, act of resistance or civil disobedience taking place to mark this anniversary?
Cheryl Rofer
Ilan Goldenberg, who worked for Obama, has a fairly detailed plan for placating that delicate ego and preserving the JCPOA. I’m not sure Trump is capable of going along with something this subtle. It’s a full thread, I’m getting to the end of my day and not patient enough to transcribe it all, although Adam will be glad to hear I’m not as crabby as I was last night.
Shalimar
I am less worried about a war against Iran, which I don’t think we can fight alone, even a bombing campaign, and more worried Trump will decertify the deal while the other signatories all stand by it, which immediately removes us from our normal leadership position on the world stage. Not that it isn’t good if other nations refuse to follow the lunatic, but will we ever get that power back after he is gone?
raven
@Shalimar: Oh fuck “our leadership position”. That ship sailed.
Cheryl Rofer
@Shalimar: We’ve already lost much of our normal leadership position. France and Germany are moving to fill the void, although they would be much happier if the US and UK hadn’t popped those shrooms. If we can put a qualified adult into the presidency in 2020, I think we can regain our momentum. We still have the largest military and the largest (second largest?) economy. We can hope we still have those in 2020.
Baud
@raven: Yep. On election night.
jl
@Shalimar: If we are stuck with president Trump at anything near a regular basis, would we deserve world leadership position? Soon we would be a sad bookend sitting across from Russia. A decayed oppressive corrupt society, whose only strength is an ability, inherited from our better ancestors, to kill mass quantities of people and blow mass quantities of stuff.
PhoenixRising
@raven: pretty sure it sunk. Sabotaged.
Bobby Thomson
@Shalimar
Why would we? Other nations can count how many Americans thought Trump was acceptable.
Bobby Thomson
@jl: “soon”? “would be”?
Wapiti
@Shalimar:
Trump doesn’t care about that, and neither does Putin.
Raoul
@Davis X. Machina:
Here’s the thing, though. tRumplestiltskin has broken nearly every conventional wisdom over the past couple years. Who is to say that this part works either?
The Shrub was worked for him, but that was post 9/11, and while liberals were frustrated with Bush and his flailing up to 9/10, he was seen as more of a washed-up frat boy than this horror show freak.
He might get a modest bounce from people predisposed to him anyway, but I think there will be a lot of folks who will (some publicly, a lot more, privately) say “I am not sending my kid/spouse/person I love into the meatgrinder of war from that imbecilic a-hole.”
If I’m wrong — and I could be — I may have to kill myself. If he gets anything close to the Dubya bump because of a war he in effect starts, I will have no reason to expect this country to ever recover.
TS
@Shalimar: Long gone – like November last year was when the US left any form of leadership on the world stage
GregB
A full bore US attack on Iran will literally unleash the gates of Hell.
I am convinced it will immediately spiral out of control.
Trump has no sense or understanding of history.
He is a horror who daily vindicates those against him.
PPCLI
I’m not entirely sure of what the ramifications of refusing to certify would be. Though I’m sure people here have patiently explained it many times, and I missed it, I hope it’s OK to ask: aren’t sanctions from the US just toothless if nobody else goes along? Isn’t the only real outcome going to be just that the US just ends up looking like a bunch of dorks if Trump does this unilaterally?
Roger Moore
@jl:
Translation: How dare you tell me that going to war will be a fucking disaster!
jl
@Cheryl Rofer: Trump would go along with it if his CCGs, cornered by threat of something worse, came up with a plan like that and sold it to Trump as his own idea. They’d have to find something to blow up that would make a big splash in US news media, and produce pretty pix.
Maybe the CCGs should do some special Trump contingency planning along those lines. Like Congress should pass special Trump legislation that consists of an impressive title and then lots of complicated text that says it doesn’t do jack squat, but it is named after Trump. Presto Majickal, Trump thinks he is a successful president.
jl
@Bobby Thomson: I’m adding a little sugar to the medicine. So, go read Raven’s version if you like that one better.
efgoldman
@jl:
He neither knows nor cares. They are not human beings to him. The only ones that are, perhaps, are his family.They are not even statistical constructs in what passes for his mind.
He doesn’t know the implications of what he said, and wouldn’t even if it’s explained to him very carefully by a grown up. Like a four-year old, he’s talking to hear himself talk. Four is also when kids start making up phantasmagorical stories.
ChrisH
This feels like a real consideration: what do we do if Trump unilaterally attacks Iran? If that did happen, I personally feel like we would be in ‘tried before the Hague’ territory.
At that point I feel like we’d be past the point of a singular march and more in Occupy DC territory
Baud
@ChrisH: I think he’s too much of a coward to do it. But I wish I had something else to rely on.
mad citizen
The worst poker player in the world. Simultaneously the world’s biggest buffoon and madman. What Raoul said at #39–will our nation recover from this infant?
jl
@efgoldman: I’m sure the non-moronic staff boil it down to ‘bad things will happen to you and you’ll be effed for good.’
Marcopolo
Can’t we just invade Grenada again? Seriously, though, I’ve heard tonight that White House tech staff discovered in June or July that General Kelly’s personal phone was hacked–presumably some time last December/January. Anyone wanna bet he let Flynn borrow it at that time? It would be irresponsible not to speculate.
jl
@Baud: Huge war crimes and hundreds of thousands dead, followed by Trump being surrendered to a war crimes trial would be translated into “A bunch fo beta-male losers from Europe will come to take you away, and we’ll let them. There will be a long trial. We won’t be able to help you get cheeseburgers and the TV will suck.’
jl
@Marcopolo: That’s my idea. Do things with cool explosions out where nobody gets hurt but look serious enough to make the news and gull the news actors into kissing Trump’s ass. That’s really all you need.
efgoldman
@jl:
Depends on what he sees on “the shows.” If Shammitty and those kkklowns are obviously supportive, it won’t matter shit what his staff and family tell him.
Baud
@jl: Isn’t that what Trump did in Syria?
Cheryl Rofer
@PPCLI: Yes, more or less. I’ll comment further when the kittehs allow me back to the desktop.
jl
@efgoldman:Jeez, you are relentless. OK, military pays Time to put him on every cover?
@Baud: I think so, but will defer to Rofer and Silverman for a definitive judgment.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Shalimar: @Cheryl Rofer:
Have most Americans noticed this yet? Will they ever? No snark, seriously. And will they react with petulance ala Nazi Germany?
I would think the Republicans would care about America’s global leadership position, if anyone would.
opiejeanne
@Amaranthine RBG: You’re a little behind the times. He doubled the membership fee after the election.
Ksmiami
Pray he strokes out…
Mnemosyne
@Raoul:
Totally OT, but your spouse is low-FODMAPs, right? I’ve really been liking the recipes I’ve been getting from Stephanie Clairmont, a Canadian dietician. I bought her whole online program, but it looks like a lot of the recipes I’ve been using are at that link for free.
Villago Delenda Est
@Beth in VA: He does not care what sort of anxiety he creates. He’s first and foremost a flimflam man who needs to keep the audience guessing.
It has nothing to do with the office he so erroneously holds, of course. Presidents don’t do that. He’s unfit to serve in any capacity at any government level.
Adam L Silverman
@Davis X. Machina: Iran is as bad, in terms of the human geography, for an attack, even just an air or missile strike, as North Korea is. And like with the DPRK where we have military personnel in range of the DPRK if they wish to respond, so to do we have military personnel in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Qatar – the total for all three locations just around the same as in Seoul. I would also expect that if we attack Iran, Iran will try to reduce Israel.
Major Major Major Major
Buzzfeed has a very well-written scoop up about a bunch of leaked Milo emails, Bannon, and the Mercers https://www.buzzfeed.com/josephbernstein/heres-how-breitbart-and-milo-smuggled-white-nationalism
“Here’s How Breitbart And Milo Smuggled Nazi and White Nationalist Ideas Into The Mainstream
A cache of documents obtained by BuzzFeed News reveals the truth about Steve Bannon’s alt-right “killing machine.””
SFAW
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?:
Is there a Dem in the Oval Office? Only then do they care. Well, say that they care. They probably, don’t either way, as long as the Kochs and Mercers keep them in cash.
Adam L Silverman
@low-tech cyclist: Depends, how much of what you need can you get from Amazon Prime One Day?
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: @Cheryl Rofer: I agree with Drezner too. I’ve seen the vid. He’s mugging for the cameras. If he was meeting with everyone from say Treasury tonight he’d have said something else inane, but it would have sounded less frightening even though it was threatening to end NAFTA or reinstate the gold standard or something. This was all trying to look tough with the general officers/flag officers as props.
efgoldman
@jl:
I’m just reminding people that he has no plans or strategy. None.
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?:
Only as it works under Cleek’s law.
Corner Stone
I’ve just been skipping the Maddow hour lately and waiting for LO’D or basically anyone to be on. She’s just been garbage the last several months.
debbie
@Adam L Silverman:
Excuse my language, but it just makes him look like a bigger pussy.
Adam L Silverman
@jl: So just a quick note on your abbreviation: CCG. I don’t know what that means. In attendance behind him are the Joint Chiefs of Staff, abbreviated JCS, and their spouses; the Geographic Combatant Commanders, abbreviated GCCs, and their spouses; Secretary Mattis (no spouse), and Gen. (ret) Kelly and his spouse. I think you want GCC instead of CCG.
debbie
Wait. the p$ssy word is forbidden again?
Tilda Swintons Bald Cap
Hey, remember the IRS Tea Party “scandal”? Turns out it wasn’t. Here’s a link.
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: I’m not sure Congress would do their part. And I’m really not sure our EU allies would go along with this either.
SiubhanDuinne
Holy cow. Even the conservative Bret Stephens is making a good case that it’s time to repeal the Second Amendment (NYTimes link).
Princess
@Major Major Major Major: This Milo Breitbart story is unreal. Yes, we knew most of the outlines already. But it has got all the details, Milo colluding with white supremacists, editing them down so they were palatable for Breitbart, and everyone working for the mercer’s dimes.
I wonder if they hacked Milo’s email, or if there was a leak (and if so, who did the leaking?).
Gravenstone
@Cheryl Rofer:
I would suspect large swathes of Europe would be happier as well, given past … disagreements with the above notables. Yes, this is hardly the early 20th century but grudges live a very long time on the old continent.
Corner Stone
@Adam L Silverman: It’s in his comment if you are not snarking.
“central casting generals”
schrodingers_cat
I am so fucking tired of this shitty Reality TV show, real Presidents from New York City. I just want to tune out.
MomSense
I hate this. This whole nightmare is the result of an illegitimate election. We shouldn’t be suffering through this mess.
Major Major Major Major
@Princess: did you see the part about what his passwords are?? UNREAL.
Corner Stone
@SiubhanDuinne: There is nothing about that op-ed that is useful.
catclub
@Adam L Silverman: CCG==Central Casting Generals
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?:
Thinking more about it, the global position of the US is so important to world peace and prosperity. Our military alliances, nuclear arsenal, our economy, etc, has helped keep the world more or less stable for 70 years. The US is the most powerful state to have ever existed in human history. Because the US is needed for the current world order, nobody wants to rock the boat and punish us when and if we violate intl law. To take this further, if the US truly fell into the hands of a ruthless, despotic regime, say in response to it’s declining power as it’s happening now, it would be a really bad day for the world if America decided to go to war. The US, when faced with most other global powers united in opposition, it would eventually lose, but with heavy losses and the global economy in ruins.
Bottom line, we have the potential to really fuck everybody over and that’s a really scary.
MomSense
@schrodingers_cat:
Come sit by me. The absolute worst person has the most important job in the world.
jl
@Adam L Silverman: @Corner Stone:
Damn straight. I’m just like Trump, I want Central Casting Generals. Except unlike the loser dope Trump, I would find ones who win wars just like they do in the movies, except skip the second act where there is setback and some bad guys kick our ass before we beat them, I’ll get ones who follow my script and didn’t act like critics. I don’t like the critics.
Adam L Silverman
@Corner Stone: I wasn’t. @jl: Central Casting Generals are not in the DOD Dictionary. They are not an operational term of art. Also, several in attendance were admirals. Not that he has any idea what that is.
SiubhanDuinne
@Corner Stone:
I’m just very surprised that it showed up under Stephens’ byline.
catclub
@SiubhanDuinne: My first thought is that a close relative of his must have been shot.
My second is: propose something impossible so that possible things are not considered.
jonas
@Raoul: Dubya got cover for the Iraq War from 9/11. Everyone was still up in arms about Al Qaeda and linking Saddam to Al Qaeda using a compliant media wasn’t that huge of a stretch (thanks, Judith Miller!). Trump doesn’t have any of this going for him right now. Iran hasn’t done anything to us. To drum up a casus belli for a major attack on Iran would require some propagandistic acrobatics I cannot even imagine Trump pulling off. It would be his undoing within days.
If he de-certifies Iran, it will be the US standing alone, calling for sanctions while the rest of the world just blows us off and continues doing business with Iran. What are we going to do? Blockade France and Italy for trading with Iran? It will be the biggest foreign policy humiliation for the US since Operation Eagle Claw. Oh, wait. That was in Iran too.
cmorenc
@Beth in VA:
I try to console myself with the thought that throughout its post-1066 history, England has survived despite occasionally being ruled by regents as arrogantly awful than Trump. In holding this thought, I try not to think of other historical examples in other countries where a similarly awful ruler coming to power soon preceded the disastrous collapse or external conquest of that country.
schrodingers_cat
@MomSense: I have tuned out, instead I am watching 10 episode, mini TV series about the Constitution, no not the American one, although there was one glowing reference to it.
Totally OT: Episode Elebenty: Aren’t the intertoobz great!
I am watching a 10 episode miniseries about how the constitution of India was written. It is fascinating look into history and another feather in veteran director, Shyam Benegal’s cap. I found out about it because I was going through YouTube to find the late Tom Alter’s* performance as a British soldier who can recite Urdu poetry, in Satyajit Ray’s Shatranj Ke Khiladi (Chess Players) about the British conquest of Avadh (Ayodhya).
Anyway, coming back to Samvidhan (Constitution), its a eye opening look back at how the one of most diverse nations in the world gave itself a secular and a democratic constitution. The Constituent Assembly met from 1946 to 1950. Its probably too dense for someone without any background in Indian history to follow. Alter plays Maulana Azad , a senior leader in the Congress, who was also a Muslim, in the huge ensemble cast.
*Tom Alter: An Indian actor of American origin, just passed away a week ago. His family was originally from Ohio.
Major Major Major Major
@SiubhanDuinne: that’s how you know it’s not useful.
Millard Filmore
@jl:
Too many RWNJs would see through that approach and inform Trump.
Ruckus
@efgoldman:
People have a hard time understanding how anyone can not have any plans whatsoever. They plan meals, what to wear, when to go shopping for food, doctors appointments, etc. They just can not understand how someone could get where he thinks he is without some kind of plan. How many people over the age of 8 have you known in your life who had no plans whatsoever? I come up with the same count, zero. It isn’t in any way normal or even close to normal. And that’s with a huge range of normal. To be that far gone and so have to completely wing it and be a gigantic narcissist? I’m sure that some where, at some time, there was another example.
jl
@Adam L Silverman: Sorry if I confused you.
Edit: I thought an admiral was just a general who ran a ship.
I’m trying to think like Trump. Might give me a few minutes edge on when to run to a bunker.
jonas
@Shalimar:
No, probably not.
Marcopolo
So here’s an interesting poll of “Americans” that was just reported out. Fairly high disapproval of Trump while at the same time 56% were optimistic about the economy (question 40 in case you want to scroll down to it). I like the idea of folks separating the performance of the economy from Trump being president since a lot of how people vote in elections seems to be tied to perceived economic conditions.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Suffolk_National_Oct_5_2017.pdf
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@cmorenc:
The US, as it exists now, will never be invaded. The really awful leaders you’re talking about would sooner nuke the rest of the world then allow that to happen. Besides we’re too important right now, and invading us would be as impossible as invading Iran successfully.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@debbie: It got grabbed.
jl
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: Roman Empire had some close scrapes, that were salvaged by good rulers who came later. But every empire falls for fades sooner or later.
Adam L Silverman
@SiubhanDuinne: @catclub: Stephens is a neo-Con. A lot of those folks aren’t gun people. Most of them seem to be moderate to liberal on social issues. They’re just super hawkish on foreign and nat-sec policy.
randy khan
I’m beginning to feel we would have been better off electing some 19-year old gamer President.
Adam L Silverman
@schrodingers_cat:
SPOILER!!!!!: With a pen…
Frankensteinbeck
@Baud: and @Cheryl Rofer:
This. Trump loves to bluster. LOVES it. And then he does nothing. I think he’s too big a coward to declare any war of any kind. He’s a chickenshit of legendary levels, far beyond the pale even for his ‘somebody else hit him!’ followers. And the reliability of his public pronouncements is so bad, the couple of times he has actually meant something, like with Arpaio, tend to be all you remember. The rest is a blur.
@Bobby Thomson:
The ONLY thing the Republican-majority congress has succeeded in doing so far this year is passing a bill with heavily Democratic support to tell Trump and Russia to fuck off, that the sanctions are not going to be lifted.
Cheryl Rofer
@Adam L Silverman: Mountains, mountains, mountains. With tunnels.
Adam L Silverman
@jl: I’ll let it go. This time…
No worries, I start seeing references to the military and an acronym that makes no sense and I gets confused. It’s like you’re trying to speak one of my second languages, but what you said makes no sense.
smintheus
MomSense
@schrodingers_cat:
I’m designing a sweater/coat and am almost done. It’s been good for me to put aside all news for a few hours every day and focus on something else. I’ve been watching movies about musicians.
Beth in VA
@raven: yes, this is scary to me. Stupid of me to ask if he cares what we think. He is actual POTUS and its not okay for him to do this. This is so not normal or acceptable,
Ruckus
@randy khan:
At the very least we very likely couldn’t be any worse off.
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: Not just that. All the military sites and the nuclear facilities, both for energy and testing, are situated near population centers and heritage sites like Qom. A number are also near borders with Iran’s neighbors, so if you take out a nuclear facility you may be irradiating Turkey or Iraq. And then there are the ones down near the Straits of Hormuz or up in the north near the oil pipelines. So you have the potential to negatively effect major sea and ground lines of commerce for oil. The Iranians aren’t stupid, they built their infrastructure in places that make targeting difficult. And if you look at the DPRK’s map they’ve done something similar. Minus the Straits of Hormuz or northern oil pipelines…
Adam L Silverman
@smintheus:
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@jl:
True, which is why I said “right now”. It’s a bit of a myth that Europe immediately went into some kind of dark age when the Western Roman Empire fell, but it’s collapse did allow for a lot of classical knowledge to be lost and created a power vacuum. The US’ decline will create a similar vacuum and I don’t know if what will come afterwards will be any better.
Russia’s strategy right now seems to be trying to disrupt whole nations, reducing them to dysfunctional, ethnic states that do not cooperate well with each other. This is the worst possible time in history for this to occur. Climate change is accelerating, wealth inequality is growing, democracy is receding all over the world, microbes are becoming increasingly resistant to treatment, and technology, while incredible, is becoming so integrated into ours lives as to seriously endanger our privacy; and in my opinion is making us lazy and soft, like Brave New World. Putin is a greedy fucking idiot for doing this now. He will be responsible for tens of millions of deaths.
Princess
@Major Major Major Major: Unreal and yet totally predictable. We knew all of this stuff. Now we have proof.
schrodingers_cat
@Adam L Silverman: I had a friend whose first name was Hormuz, he was a Zorastrian (like Farrokh Balsara aka Freddie Mercury of Queen)
Lyrebird
@Cheryl Rofer: I hope hope hope hope your leaning is borne out, and I wish you and your kitties the best of health.
I have grad-school friends in Seoul, and others from Iran… from NW Iran, who grew up hearing bombs…
GWB and Darth Halliburton Cheney were hankering for a war with Iran, and given how much deference the press gave them, my uninformed (and non-uniformed) opinion is that the only thing that saved us then was some generals delivering some unpleasant truths.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@smintheus:
Spoiler alert: the Good Guy wins.
frosty
@MomSense:
Any of my faves?
Twenty Feet from Stardom
The Wrecking Crew
Spinal Tap
The Rutles
(The last two are a great double bill)
Adam L Silverman
@schrodingers_cat: I will update your dossier.
Patricia Kayden
@Baud: Exactly. Why the MSM is playing along with his silly word games is beyond me. We already know that he’s against the Iran Deal so it’s not shocking that he’s going to decertify it. There is no suspense or surprise in this.
NorthLeft12
He is such a fucking drama queen. It always has to be about him. I don’t care how much money this douchecanoe has, I cannot believe that any normal human being would not shun Deadbeat Donald like he has something worse than the plague.
When is one of these media types going to call him out on this BS to his face? Yeah, never because it would be “rude” and “disrespectful”.
With each passing day, President Obama looks better and better. He should be reaching godhood by Christmas at this rate. Hell, even Dubya is looking like a real statesman compared to this maroon. Ha! No, only kidding. Dubya will never rise much above excrement, no matter how low the bar is set.
Villago Delenda Est
@Adam L Silverman: In Stephens’ case, he’s bone stupid about climate change, too.
Major Major Major Major
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?:
lol @ present progressive tense
Major Major Major Major
@Villago Delenda Est: that’s not Stupidity, it’s willfully believing that “oh yeah, well what about my little buddies REASON [biased sources] and NUANCE [squid ink], libtard?” is a legitimate argument.
ETA and I presume lots of money
Villago Delenda Est
@frosty: “A legend that will last a lunchtime.”
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@NorthLeft12:
I’d honestly feel better right now if GWB was President again, though I of course would prefer Obama. At least he was a loyal American who cared a little bit about his fellow man. He could have went after Muslims and gotten little pushback from the public after 9/11, but he didn’t. Imagine if Trump were President during 9/11? I shudder to think of it. He probably would habe tried for internment camps like we did during WW2. As much as it pains me to say, Bush was fundamentally a better human being than Trump ever will be.
Adam L Silverman
@Villago Delenda Est:
Fixed/truncated for that for you.
Adam L Silverman
Something in the scrub is very unhappy. As in VERY UNHAPPY!!!!!
Major Major Major Major
@Adam L Silverman: he probably has one thing he’s alright on like Friedman and climate change.
Corner Stone
We’re pretty much going to attack Iran, aren’t we?
NorthLeft12
@ Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) : I agree with you about Dubya’s humanity, I was more thinking about his “statesmanship” credentials and kept remembering his speechifying, his encounters with other world leaders, and his overall behavior as President. He was bad. Real bad, but not Deadbeat Donald level bad. But yeah, he was a good guy to have a beer with .
Adam L Silverman
Nice clean, Bronx Man open thread is up.
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: Perhaps.
Adam L Silverman
@Corner Stone: It is possible. I don’t think it is probable. At least not right now.
Corner Stone
@Adam L Silverman: Let’s revisit after 5:00PM EST on Friday.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Major Major Major Major:
Meaning?
@Corner Stone:
Attacking Iran would be the biggest own goal a country has ever done since Nazi Germany declared war against the US, followed by Japan bombing Pearl Harbor. Iran appears to be beginning to liberalize. Attacking them would destroy that, probably kill millions of Iranians, thousands of American troops, and might even be enough to turn the US into as close as a pariah state it’s global position will allow. Imagine if the rest of the signatories stand by Iran and we declare war on them anyway?
trollhattan
The BBC is gratifyingly not running this particular story. Perhaps they’ve learned to ignore Donny the Slut.
Cheryl Rofer
My kittehs believe themselves to be therapy kittehs, and they insist that I leave the computer for a couple of hours during the evening. But I am back now. I think they will let me continue.
On decertification:
Decertification is not a part of the JCPOA; it is part of the convoluted measure Congress passed so that they would have to actively vote against the JCPOA for it not to go into effect. This is a result of the Republican refusal to ratify treaties. For one stupid example, they will not ratify the treaty on the law of the sea, so the US has only limited participation in talks, for example, on how the Arctic is to be dealt with as the ice melts. We would have full participation if we ratified the treaty.
Decertification allows Congress to reimpose sanctions on Iran for its nuclear work. We have sanctions for human rights and missile development, but the JCPOA lifted the nuclear-related sanctions. Congress has sixty days to do this. Senator Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas) is openly salivating for war and regime change in Iran. Not clear how many other senators are up for this; probably more than any of us would like.
But, as noted upthread, all the other countries involved in the JCPOA have said that they intend to stick with it. The Europeans have said they are ready to build on it, which was the plan.
So the US would isolate itself. But since the US is a big concern to Iran, with Cotton and others frothing at the mouth and Trump threatening random nuke strikes, Iran might withdraw or start pressing the JCPOA limits. That could give the warmongers an excuse for war. And, as is pointed out above by several of us, it would be far worse than the Iraq war. Not to mention that we have a few other wars in progress in the area.
Cotton and others have a simple plan:
1. Decertify
2. Sanctions
3. Regime change.
They argue that 1 + 2 will rapidly result in 3, but the sanctions would be weaker this time around, and the US would have much less leverage than in 2014-15, so why they think this will happen is a mystery.
The Ilan Goldenberg thread I posted above has a scheme to take the pressure to certify off Trump’s delicate ego, which involves Congress stepping in in the nick of time.
I tend to agree that Trump is a cowardly blowhard and is unlikely to start a war, but he is also extremely volatile. Additionally, other countries don’t know how to take his threats, and they have their own internal issues, like the power of the hard right in Iran. At least Iran doesn’t have nukes it might toss back at us, although they could do a lot of regional damage.
MomSense
@frosty:
I love those movies but I haven’t gotten to them yet.
Cadillac Records
Walk the Line
I Saw the Light
Get On Up
Under the influence
My son went to see Lisa Fischer when she was in Maine. She has an exquisite voice. I’m so happy that she is touring and singing what she wants.
Corner Stone
@Cheryl Rofer:
They don’t have to. What happens when Israel wipes Iran off the map?
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer:
I have heard both a past Chief of Naval Operations and a past Commandant of the Coast Guard complain about this. Aside from the arctic issue you’ve highlighted, it also makes it difficult for their Services to carry out their partnering missions with our allies and partners. One day there should be an accounting for what McConnell has done in regard to breaking the Senate.
Major Major Major Major
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: meaning that horse has sailed.
Adam L Silverman
@Corner Stone: If Israel actually could do this, they would have. That Bibi keeps trying to push, cajole, and/or trick the US into doing it for him should tell you something about the limits of Israel to project military power in the region beyond its borders, the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and southern Lebanon.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Cheryl Rofer:
I doubt the Europeans would step in directly in Iran's defense. Is there anything they could do to stop us? And does’t Tom Cotton give a fuck about the US?
catclub
@NorthLeft12:
I disagree, and so would hundreds of thousands of dead iraqis if they weren’t dead.
So far, Trump is better than that. Extraordinarily low bar.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Major Major Major Major:
Just wait until the government can hack into your car and cause you to have a fatal “accident”. I was more alluding to the IoT (internet of things)?
Perhaps I’m a tad paranoid but I tend to see the danger in things. Technology and science by themselves aren’t bad. People just usually end up abusing it and putting scientific principles to evil ends.
Gravenstone
@Adam L Silverman: Ah, the classics.
catclub
@Adam L Silverman:
Right after there is an accounting for Ford pardoning Nixon, and Reagan selling weapons to terrorists to fund different terrorists. I could go on.
Major Major Major Major
@catclub: Trump has definitely gotten fewer people killed in his first nine months, yes. Some ways to go though.
ETA let’s go with eight months. Don’t know the hurricane figures yet.
Major Major Major Major
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: I am much more sanguine about the American government being able to do that than I am about basically anybody else. As for the IoT, don’t forget that most of us already carry tracking and recording devices everywhere we go.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
I call another context; this is punish Tillerman for Tillerman calling Trump a moron. Trump is going to turn US diplomacy into a mess to show Tillerman what a moron really looks like.
Adam L Silverman
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: I think you need to edit this. I can’t tell where Cheryl’s remarks you’re quoting stop and your question begins.
What will happen is that it will destroy the US led coalition against ISIS. The Brits, our NATO partners, including Australia would all pull out to get their people out of harms way. Our NATO partners would do the same thing in Afghanistan. And I expect a large number of our Arab Muslim partners would pull out of the anti-ISIS coalition too. I would expect the EU would debate sanctions, whether they could pull that off or not would be an open question.
Cheryl Rofer
@Corner Stone: I think you mean Iran wipes Israel off the map? Much easier to do.
@Adam L Silverman: Yes. There are a number of ways that staying out of the Law of the Sea Treaty hurts the US. It goes back much further than McConnell, was part of Newt Gingrich’s strategy to break the Senate in the 1990s. His first big breakthrough in this area was the refusal of the Senate to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in 1999, after Bill Clinton signed it. Republicans have always been reluctant to ratify treaties (giving up autonomy!), but Gingrich magnified that, and it’s gotten worse since.
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: I would love to look inside Tom Cotton’s head, although I would want protective garments.
Ruckus
@Adam L Silverman:
Could we make it tomorrow? Please. OK, fucking pretty please.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Major Major Major Major:
I’m talking about 1984 telescreens levels of surveillance. And the possibility of using the interconnectedness of everyday electronics to kill people without anyone being the wiser.
Right now, the American government is more or less following the constitution. We’re still a free society. Will we still be in a few decades? I hope so.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: If you are a crazy enough to land a plane on a ship, you are crazy enough to be an admiral.*
*Paraphrased from a Gavin Lyall novel (one of the Maxim ones, I believe).
Major Major Major Major
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?:
So garish. Like I said, we just carry the devices around in our pockets now, much cleaner lines.
That I would be less worried about. Have you read about all the shit they tried with Castro?
FlipYrWhig
Remember when the big-brained pundits were telling us that really Trump was the dove and Hillary was the hawk? Even though Trump thought the problem with the Iraq and Afghanistan wars was that they were being fought without enough atrocities?
Adam L Silverman
@FlipYrWhig: Maureen Dowd. From her neo-classical period.
Corner Stone
@Cheryl Rofer: No, I don’t.
Jinchi
I hate that phrase, because it is always a lie. “All options are on the table” means one option is on the table. We are willing to preemptively start a nuclear war, nothing more.
The option of sitting down and negotiating is unacceptable. Diplomacy is considered a nuisance. So “all options” are clearly not on the table.
Cheryl Rofer
@Corner Stone: Not gonna happen.
Corner Stone
@Adam L Silverman: I doubt this conclusion. It seems a little skewed, IMO. Israel needs Iran. They work with them on different issues and secretly trade arms and supplies if reports are to be believed.
Adam L Silverman
@Corner Stone:
Ask me no questions, I’ll tell you no lies…
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Major Major Major Major:
I didn’t mean it literally.
Why are you less worried? The Russians seem to get their guys pretty well with mundane methods. Modern technology has probably helped with that.
Jinchi
@catclub:
That was two years into Bush’s presidency. We’re only 9 months into Trump’s presidency and he has already threatened war against North Korea, Iran, Syria and Venezuela.
Corner Stone
@Cheryl Rofer: Forgive my scepticism. Or don’t. Either way.
stinger
@frosty: The Commitments!
Philbert
Along with the threat he also said “Recently, we have had challenges that we really should have taken care of a long time ago, like North Korea, Iran, Afghanistan, ISIS, and the revisionist powers that threaten our interests all around the world,” Trump told the group, according to a White House transcript. WTF are ‘revisionist powers’, this is not in his usual vocabulary of 200 words. .
mainmata
@Davis X. Machina: Doing DPRK actually means tens of millions dead and bombing Iran means a lot of American servicemen dead from both Iranian and Iraqi Shiite army people. Never mind colossal ruination of our allies.
Major Major Major Major
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: I’m less worried because it’s still far easier to do it with mundane methods and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon.
Brachiator
@FlipYrWhig:
I remember when Bernie and various activists said this. I don’t remember it coming from sane pundits.
In any event, Trump lied about his foreign positions. And when he didn’t lie, he was spouting delusional bs touting his tough guy persona.
Omnes Omnibus
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: Calm down. Just calm down. You are making the horses nervous.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Jinchi:
that’s so they can threaten and encourage people at the same time. The correct reply is “get back to me when you decided on doing something besides out gassing, blow hard”
Raoul
@Mnemosyne: Yes. Cool, thank you!
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Omnes Omnibus:
I suppose it’s my writer’s imagination running away with me.
Repatriated
@Major Major Major Major:
[tinfoil hat mode ON]
You don’t really think a company as advanced and experienced as Samsung would produce a flagship cellphone that could accidentally self-destruct, do you?
Isn’t it more likely that someone hacked specific peoples’ phones to make them fail catastrophically, then set the hack loose randomly into the world to hide the targeted attacks?
[tinfoil hat mode OFF]
It’d make a good element in a murder mystery or spy novel, anyhow.
prostratedragon
@jl: Who knew the man had such knowledge of the classics?
From The Producers, “Springtime for Hitler.”
Stan
“Mr. President, this morning we present Joint Operation FIREFLY, which will completely eliminate Iran by striking at their evil terrorist gonkulator facilities in Sylvania and liberating our allies in Freedonia. No American lives will be lost in this entirely straight-to-video production, er, operation. On your order we will fire a tremendous number of powerful missiles at Sylvania. Very powerful, the best. Sylvania is an island, surrounded by evil dirty terrorist water, so no fake media will be able to interfere or ever see it firsthand. You will have total control of the tremendous video, er, victory we will achieve…..The whole thing will be over in half an hour, the best war the US has ever won bigly. We await your order Mein Furher……”
socraticsilence
@Davis X. Machina:
I mean a carrier burning and/or sinking in the Strait of Hormuz wouldn’t be great optics.
Corner Stone
@socraticsilence: It would be fantastic optics. Think of the media coverage he could get if we lost a carrier!