That seems to be the most plausible set of trade-offs for the December comprehensive spending bill:
Conservative leaders asked Paul Ryan today if DACA or Obamacare subsidies would be part of a year-end spending deal.
Ryan said CSR payments wouldn't, but DACA would.https://t.co/swcKSi8iAm
— Matt Fuller (@MEPFuller) October 25, 2017
And on a moral basis, that choice is easy. DACA should be the priority.
We know that CSR costs are built into premiums. We know that any bill that funds CSR won’t do anything to premiums in 2018. We know that once the confusion and dust settle, not funding CSR leads to most subsidized individuals to be no worse off and many better off in 2018 and beyond.
DACA is a different story. 800,000 direct lives are hanging in the balance and millions more people know the DREAMERS and care about them.
The choice is simple. DACA should be the priority.
Open thread
schrodingers_cat
Putting my cynic’s hat on. It will be neither because that’s how Rs roll. Government shut down time, baby.
Major Major Major Major
Agree with David. No opinion on what @schrodingers_cat said since I’ve long since stopped trying to predict these people.
Roger Moore
@schrodingers_cat:
This. The Republicans will talk about making DACA permanent, but they’ll chicken out when the deplorables pitch a fit.
low-tech cyclist
Where’s CHIP? I don’t see that mentioned anywhere.
jl
@low-tech cyclist: Last I heard about CHIP, GOP wanted big changes in Medicaid and Medicare funding mechanism to renew CHIP. I think they need Dems for that. If that is still the case, I think CHIP is gone for a while.
Edit: IIRC, GOP wanted parts of Medicaid and Medicare that come out of general fund to have frequent sunset clause and be subject to Congressional re-authorization.
schrodingers_cat
@Major Major Major Major: I am not really making any predictions. There is a lot of support from R corporate sponsors for DACA, so it may pass. But spite does seem to be their organizing principle. We will see.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@schrodingers_cat:
More cynically, will a government shutdown on GOP’s watch help us in the midterms next year if it goes on long enough?
narya
and the health center funding cliff, and HRSA funding in genderal
Major Major Major Major
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: Probably.
schrodingers_cat
T is introducing a lot of uncertainty in the economy, so it does seem like we are heading for crash.
MAGA in practice is going to be MAW= Make America Weak
Villago Delenda Est
Ryan still needs a tumbrel ride, desperately. Along with that other fan of the vile Russian bitch, Rand Paul.
schrodingers_cat
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?:Its possible.
Kraux Pas
So who will be worse off?
@jl: It seems like the only way the GOP can pass policy is to find a hostage as leverage. And here I thought the GOPers purported to be the “someone please think of the children” party.
SFAW
The model for ZEGS (and Rs in general) is: which choice will hurt the MOST non-wealthy people? (Bonus points if they’re brown, of course.)
I don’t know if killing DACA or killing CSRs hurts more people. Maybe the answer is “All of ’em, Katie.”
ETA: Of course, there should probably be a normalization factor built in somehow. Meaning: sending a refugee back to a country which will kill him/her is “N” times the impact of a person’s premiums rising $1000. I don’t know how to calculate that, but I bet ZEGS has an algorithm all prepped and ready to go.
Roger Moore
@schrodingers_cat:
Not the W most of Trump’s supporters were hoping for.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@schrodingers_cat:
B-b-but rising stocks! The NASDAQ, S&P, S$M, and BAWSAQ are up elebenty trillion points! Unpossible!
Major Major Major Major
@Kraux Pas:
Many subsidy-ineligible people who buy through the exchanges.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Kraux Pas:
And speaking of which, my family and I can’t get subsidies for health insurance. How bad will we be off?
VeniceRiley
The Health Center funding cliff affects me directly, because I work in one. And where do they think those newly uninsured will go once they push CHIP kids and others off of insurance? Like a double whammy, that.
schrodingers_cat
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: Bubble.
Major Major Major Major
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: Markets are not rational.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@VeniceRiley:
In case you haven’t noticed they don’t give fuck and neither do most of their brain dead, personality cult-worshipping authoritarian voters.
ruemara
Add me to the neither contingent. They’re ridiculously, cartoon villain level, evil. Anything they do that even seems good has a poison pill in it. I wouldn’t hold my breath.
SenyorDave
Of all Republicans in power I think Ryan is the worst. He says he bases his policies largely on his Christian faith. What a sorry excuse for a human being. I hope hell exists, because Ryan will be going there.
Like Gandhi allegedly said, “Your Christians are so unlike Christ”.
rikyrah
@schrodingers_cat:
UH HUH
UH HUH
rikyrah
Mayhew,
Did anyone ask about CHIP?
Roger Moore
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?:
Just wait and see what happens to the stock market if the MOTU don’t get their tax cuts.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Major Major Major Major:
Well duh, of course they’re not. Because people create markets, and people are often not rational, therefore markets are often not rational. If they were we would not waste labor and resources on producing an overabundance of things we don’t need. That’s modern capitalism. We have the resources to feed the world, but do not do so because we lack the true political will.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@schrodingers_cat:
That’s what I am thinking, they will demand all kinds of crazy nonense in the budget, then scream socialism as always and all vote.
Mike in NC
ZEGS has made it abundantly clear that all he really cares about delivering are those massive tax cuts to the top 1%ers.
cokane
Not just care about them, some DREAMERS are old enough to have families, so many depend on them
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@schrodingers_cat:
@Major Major Major Major:
My main point in that snark was that who cares about the stock market when wages are near stagnant and prices keep going up? That’s the true indicator of economic health in my opinion.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?:
It’s not the lack of will, those Midwest farmer would just love that kind of action. It’s just as a people we don’t read maps.
Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady)
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: Yeah, the stock market is not the economy.
Roger Moore
@SenyorDave:
He claims (or claimed) to be a firm believer in both Christianity and Ayn Rand. To which I would quote:
Ryan- and the rest of the “Christians” in the Republican Party- have chosen
RandMammon.schrodingers_cat
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: Stock market is only one indicator, there are several macroeconomic indicators, like unemployment rate, consumer price index, GDP and GNP.
germy
Here’s the photo of George H.W. in mid grope.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?:
And on that note, I’m perfectly willing to concede “economic anxiety” is a real thing but also leads to rises in levels of racism and reaction politics in bad financial times as well. Its intersectional.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@germy:
Sorry not sorry.
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?:
*reactionary, damnit.
rikyrah
@Mike in NC:
He would sell his mother to Lucifer for those tax cuts.
Major Major Major Major
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: And we have folks like those in the Nigerian government who like to make sure the food aid mysteriously vanishes on its way to the beneficiaries.
Roger Moore
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?:
The people who have looked at “economic anxiety” have found that the anxiety is driven as much by bigotry as by objective economic circumstances. That is to say that if you look at people in similar economic circumstances, the bigots are more likely to be anxious about the economy than non-bigots.
p.a.
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: Please excuse my boot in your face. All in good fun. Byegones!
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Roger Moore: I think the words you want is Ryan is self serving. Rand specifically denounces Christian an espouses atheism because Christianity sees greed as a vice and encourages charity in one of the lamest arguments for atheism ever I mean seriously, why doesn’t Ryan add communism to his beliefs and make it a trifecta of irreconcilable contradictions.
Major Major Major Major
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?:
So why’s that only seem to happen to white people?
schrodingers_cat
@Major Major Major Major: The economy was doing very well when T was elected. And Obama was elected when the stock market crashed and the financial crisis was at its peak.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Roger Moore:
So the more bigoted you are the more “economically anxious” you are as well?
Major Major Major Major
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: If you’re convinced the darkies and wimmins are taking things that are rightfully yours you probably go through life more anxious in general.
Litlebritdifrnt
OT I know – but has anyone noticed how the shitgibbon keeps tweeting about he got a standing ovation at the Senate Lunch? Has no one on his staff told him that it is protocol for Senators (or anyone really) to stand when the president enters the room? Are they letting him believe that he is getting a “standing O” everywhere he goes?
Major Major Major Major
@Litlebritdifrnt: Probably one of the little lies they tell him every day to prevent him from nuking England or whatever.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Major Major Major Major:
I don’t have any concrete evidence to support this, but I think it happens to any majority/powerful elite minority during hard times.
ruemara
@Litlebritdifrnt: Why not? He’s delusional, abusive and utterly stupid. One less thing to deal with and it puts Satan’s shit stain in a good mood.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Litlebritdifrnt: that hadn’t occurred to me. I hope that’s what it was
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Major Major Major Major:
That makes sense.
germy
Jeff Glor is the new anchor of CBS Evening News.
debit
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: I’m waiting to see how bad the pricing is on the exchange this year. I already received a notice that my bare bones super high deductible bronze plan was going up from $103.00 per month to $447.00. If that’s the way the rest of the plans are priced, I guess I’ll be without insurance again.
germy
tomorrow is the day all the JFK files are released, and we learn that Hillary was on the grassy knoll.
SiubhanDuinne
Has efg checked in this afternoon? (I’ve been kind of in and out of threads.) Hope he’s as comfortable as possible and will comment when he can.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@germy:
Hopefully the JFK movie Comrade Stone shat out will be discredited in the most embarrassing and lasting way.
Brendancalling
Amurca’s gettin’ shut down for Christmas
Donnie and Paulie are mad
Amurca’s gettin’ shut down for Christmas
Republican leaders are bad…
Cheryl Rofer
@germy: I thought it was Ted Cruz’s father.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Brendancalling: Yes, but we can say “Merry Christmas” again; so it’s all good.
debit
@Cheryl Rofer: At last the secret can be told. Hillary is Ted Cruz’s father.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Cheryl Rofer: Me too, I’m so confused. Maybe it was both of them!
Major Major Major Major
@debit: Checks out.
sukabi
@Kraux Pas: no. Only “children” they care about haven’t been born. They are hypothetical “children” to be used as pawns (to keep their base in line) and cudgels (to beat their opposition with)
Actual children have real world needs, thus cost money…money that is being “taken from the truly deserving…you know billionaires and corporate enterprises.
dmbeaster
The DACA deal has to be permanent — not another Charlie Brown and Lucy football stunt. If it is some half-baked measure that can be undone a short while later, then there is no point since nothing is actually gained except lip service on behalf of DACA.
And I seriously doubt that any meaningful solution for DACA will ever be proposed by the GOP — forget about it actually passing. Dont grab for the carrot dangling on a stick, Dems.
Brachiator
I don’t trust the Congressional Republicans or Trump to keep their word about any agreement on any of this.
Yutsano
DACA. That’s not even a question.
MoxieM
@Major Major Major Major: Me!! Me!! (not that I wish anything but what is right for Dreamers). I also desperately need my healthcare. I am one Republican away from living in a cardboard box, aka, finding a speeding train or something. and that wouldn’t be fair to my kid, either.
ETA, I just feel like this is a hellish choice, as it’s framed. Leave Dreamers out to dry, suffer, and bear the brunt of evil people doing evil things? no, no way.
On the other hand, leave out people without subsidy, Medicare, or health insurance through work or spouse (which disproportionately affects middle aged women, by the by). Yeah, no to that either.
I give up.
`
@ruemara: Yup. I have a hard time seeing how these cowards would be willing to do anything for DACA when most of their supporters see those children as a threat of White Genocide ™
martian
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: Didn’t Hillary win the majority of voters who said the economy was their number one issue?
I think white voters have been going for Democrats when they’re economically anxious. When they’re comfortable with the economy, they vote their racial anxieties and pull the lever for Republicans. Then they lie about it to make their reasons sound respectable. We all keep banging our heads against why the white working class votes against it’s own interests, well, it doesn’t. I think we’re just having trouble grasping that racial oppression is a priority for a lot of white voters.
debbie
It will be neither. They will instead focus on giving themselves raises.
Comrade Scrutinizer
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: Not a problem. No one is paying attention to voter supression and the continuing presence of Russian influence in elections, so 2018 and 2020 are gone. For Christ’s sake, they are still beating the Clinton drum, and the media salivates.
Major Major Major Major
@Comrade Scrutinizer:
??????????
tobie
@Comrade Scrutinizer: I noticed this evening that even Josh Marshall thinks the Russians manipulated the vote tallies. I still don’t get why the Democratic governor and secretary of state in Pennsylvania has not called for a state-wide election audit.
trollhattan
@MoxieM:
It’s basically Sophie’s choice and in this case, the side forcing it has literally picked up torches and marched.
ruemara
@martian: You are correct in the fact of the 2016 vote and probably correct in your theory. Would that it weren’t so.
@Major Major Major Major: I was hopeful but I must admit I now believe this. People do not want to let go of what they wish to believe, our media is still misinforming people and the DNC is fucking lame as hell due to the Bernie wing ratfucking it goddamned well allowed to happen. Getting the resistance shit together is not going well.
@tobie: Dems are still playing the role of idiot in the zombie movie walking towards the dead walking thing, calling it’s name and asking “Honey, are you ok? Let me help you.”
Mary G
Paul Ryan is alleged to be a devout Catholic. Il Papa should excommunicate him when the bill is finally revealed.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Major Major Major Major: WASF!
Corner Stone
God damn I hate Chris Matthews. Fuck you, asshole.
MomSense
@jl:
I just sent an angry fax to Collins scolding her for going along with the GOP budget and failing to authorize CHIP. Made the point that with the GOP in control of both the White House and Congress their priorities have been revealed. Told her it’s shameful that they would slash taxes on the super wealthy while cutting health care benefits from the neediest children and seniors and I’m completely disgusted.
debbie
@MomSense:
I read in the morning thread that Rob Portman (R-OH) was getting raked over the coals by CNN for his general puSSiness. We need more of this!
frosty
@tobie: Because it’s pointless? Half of PA votes with machines with no paper trail, How do you audit that?
MomSense
@debbie:
Good. They’ve grown too accustomed to not being held accountable.
Spanky
@SiubhanDuinne:
And schlemazel. I seem to recall he had a heart attack, or at least “event” last week.
Don’t think I’ve seen either one today.
debbie
@MomSense:
And I’d like to think that media will step up their efforts in an attempt to rehabilitate their current image. Did you see Stephen Colbert’s reimagining of CNN’s apple/banana ad so it would be more honest? It’s worth watching all the way through.
kindness
That this administration is so prone & open to hostage taking. In the past things were much more discrete. With Trump, not so much. Lil Donnie reminds me of the Dapper Don. Who remembers John Gotti? For a while he ran the NY mob. He was flashy and outspoken in a position that usually pleads for anonymity. I think Trump saw him and thought that was a good roll model.
martian
@ruemara: I wish it weren’t so, too, but I’m looking at what’s right in front of me, I think. If the black and brown working class can see their best interests are with the Democrats, if they are able to understand what Dems want to do, then white voters understand what’s on offer, too. They’ve just got different priorities than we want to think.
I just keep reminding myself, we do outnumber them. Hillary won the popular vote by millions. They had to cheat to win. The Republicans can be beaten if we bring out the vote.
David Anderson
@debit: email me bjdickmayhew yahoo
J R in WV
Thinking of old EFG, a more better good guy would be hard to come by. I don’t pray, but I can think hard! Thinking of EFG.
Amir Khalid
@Litlebritdifrnt:
Der Scheißgibbon finds that belief the most flattering. He will hang on to it no matter how hard his staff — and they are not the boss of him, he is the boss of them — try to correct him.