“Men selected as major-party nominees for president have failed to win the popular vote 50 percent of the time. Contrast that to the 100 percent of the time that a female nominee for president has won the popular vote.“ https://t.co/OahnJdf5kN
— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) June 7, 2019
The Washington Post‘s Alexandra Petri is a national treasure:
The 2020 election is lurching toward us like a malfunctioning robot, and I think we must ask ourselves: Can we risk nominating a man for president?…
Male presidential candidates are noted for their inexplicable and sudden desires to do irrational things, such as assassinate Alexander Hamilton, create the Bull Moose Party or be John Edwards. And once they’re in office, this behavior continues. Sometimes, for no reason, a man will decide to throw himself a Teapot Dome Scandal or a Bay of Pigs, or decide to do things to the Philippines that we have yet to adequately reckon with as a country.
Not all men are Jacksons or McKinleys or even the fellows responsible for keeping Jackson’s loathsome visage on our twenties. But having to battle the presumption that they are will waste voters’ energy — energy better spent being genuinely excited by a candidate!…
… When Americans look to the person in charge of their government, they should not just think of everything in the past that has gone wrong. There will be another time to attempt the noble trial of seeing whether this country can handle a 45th man as president, after Grover Cleveland twice and — Warren G. Harding! I mean, honestly, Warren G. Harding!…
Also, Josh Marshall dares to dream — “The Alternative Scenario: Trump Loses and It’s Not Even Close”:
… Start with the most obvious fact: President Trump is the most consistently unpopular President in at least a century. He has not had a net positive approval rating for his entire presidency and has durably had approval ratings in the low 40s, sometimes dipping down into the 30s.The consistency of his unpopularity rather than its depth is what sets him apart. Other presidents have been that low and even gone on to win reelection. None has been that low for his entire presidency. That suggests a strong ceiling he cannot get above. For any other President we’d recognize this as a massive reelection warning sign. It’s really no different or shouldn’t be any different with President Trump.
The intensity of opposition is even more telling. Polls routinely show that well over 50% of voters say they will definitely not vote for him for reelection. A Quinnipiac poll from a week ago found that Trump had a 41% approval rating while 57% disapproved of him. More significantly 54% said they would “definitely” not vote to reelect him. A January Marist poll had the number of definite nos at 57%.
Could people change their minds? Of course. But this is a measure of the steepness of the climb. Trump needs to get all the undecideds and then peel off a significant number who say there’s no way they’d ever vote for him. That’s hard.
These are again, massive warning signs for reelection defeat.
Of course we know from bitter experience that a Republican President can lose the popular vote by a significant margin and still be elected President. But they can’t lose by that much. Maybe it’s 2 or 3 percentage points max to lose the popular vote and win the electoral college. But not more than that…
Personally, even I don’t really buy it. I assume it will be a tight race and the winner of Wisconsin will be the next President. But sometimes it makes sense to step back and look at data, albeit imperfect, which is separate from our hopes and fears. It’s like what pilots are trained to do in stormy weather or difficult flying conditions: ignore what you feel or see and just watch the instruments. The best summary is this. If you look at these numbers and set aside the name Trump and all the aura – negative and positive – that surrounds him, you would say the electoral beatdown scenario is significantly more likely than even a narrow victory for the President…
OzarkHillbilly
At this point in history I really feel like forget the *reasonable Republicans* because those folks aren’t Republicans any more, forget the muddy middle because that will most likely split 50/50 regardless of what anybody does. Get the people who most fire up the DEM base to run for everything. Do that and fight voter disenfranchisement tooth and nail.
* I define reasonable Republicans as people who are conservative on certain issues but recognize the fact that the entire GOP is bat shit crazy and they can not even vote for a Republican as dog catcher
OzarkHillbilly
Move over Great Wall of China, there’s a beaver dam that can be seen from space too. (well, you can’t really see the dam but you can see the pond and bog behind it)
Raven
@OzarkHillbilly: Well since it’s just you and me. I was really happy with the floor patching job may man did on the rental but he says the floor is very unlevel and thinks liquid floor leveler and manufactured flooring might be a good solution when they move out. Whatcha think.
satby
@Raven: you didn’t ask me, but it’s an old cottage, right? Old house floors aren’t normally perfectly level after years of settling, is it that big of an issue in your rental (assuming the structure itself is sound)? As long as it wasn’t a result of some sign of impending structural failure I probably wouldn’t bother.
NotMax
Question for those in the NYC vicinity. Been checking around for stuff to consider doing during the upcoming trip there. Anybody ever gone to this? Looks like it might be a fun day trip (or maybe that’s just my
secondthirdnth childhood kicking in).RAVEN
@satby: When we discovered the floor rot I called out exterminator and learned I had cancelled termite protection, duh! We re-instituted the coverage but there are certainly signs of previous damage and I’m not sure there’s anything we can do about that. It’s more than not being “perfectly level”, he said a marble will roll around in different directions! We were thinking there was no ventilation but, upon closer review, there are actually two good sized windows at each end of the foundation that are hinged so I opened them and rigged up screen.
Aziz, light!
I think racism, misogyny, and habitual voting behaviors will trump all common sense, making this race much tighter than we would like. Only turnout can save us.
RAVEN
JR
I am Team Warren but I am not going to bag on any of the D candidates this year, not even Bernie.
NotMax
@RAVEN
Wasn’t asked either, but would suggest considering how well the existing damaged joists could handle the added weight without adding piers in the crawl space. And if you need to go that route, just the piers alone (with some judicious jacking) might remedy the leveling on their own.
raven
@NotMax: Good thought. I also really worry about the front sill. The house has a concrete porch the entire length and there was some rot when we first bought it. I put some new supports in but it’s really hard to access and I think my days of crawling under a house with 8 inches of clearance at the front are over.
OzarkHillbilly
@Raven: I had to do that in our bedroom. The original construction had 3 or 4 of the floor joists with the crown down which resulted in a noticeable dip in the floor of over an inch (iirc). They had also used 1/2″ plywood :-( !!! As best I remember I mixed the leveler with a concrete additive (as per directions) for added strength (I use that stuff a lot) and just poured it out on the floor and let it do it’s thing. I didn’t bother feathering the edges because that really isn’t necessary. Then I went over it all with 3/4″ OSB, then prefinished 3.25″ oak T&G flooring over that. The bedroom is 2 steps lower than the rest of the house so I didn’t have to worry about a flooring elevation transition. 10 years later and it’s still rock solid.
Some people don’t like the manufactured floating floors, but I don’t find them objectionable at all. Yes there is a sort of hollow sound when your heel comes down on it but that never bothered me. Yes if you look closely one can see it is not “natural”, OK don’t look closely. Many styles to choose from.
This past winter I installed a Loft floor in a rental’s kitchen for a friend. I was so impressed with it I got some for our bathroom a couple months ago (it still awaits me). The install is easy and if one’s floor is uneven (within reason) you don’t need to use leveler for the little dips or a slight crown. (There were 3 layers of flooring and in a couple spots all 3 layers were gone, just went right over them) It’s a “soft” rubberized flooring, app1/4″ thick, so no clicking of the heels when you walk on it and it’s supposed to be really tough.
gene108
@NotMax:
All I can say is my nephew, when he was 10-12 years younger than he is now, would have loved it. He loved Thomas and Friends back then, and generally all things train related.
Other than making me nostalgic, I think it might be fun.
Lapassionara
@Aziz, light!: Overcoming voter suppression tactics will be important too. I keep hearing stories about significant numbers of people in poor areas of Milwaukee who could not vote. I have no idea whether those issues are being addressed.
Good morning, everyone,
RAVEN
@OzarkHillbilly: Whoa that is cool stuff, I shall investigate!
OzarkHillbilly
@raven:Floor leveler and a manufactured floor aren’t adding anything like significant weight to worry about. As long as your floor joists are OK and have sufficient blocking between them, You could even add 3/4″ OSB and not worry about the weight. If your floor joists aren’t OK or don’t have sufficient blocking, you have to remedy that first anyway.
Baud
@OzarkHillbilly:
What are you, some kind of carpenter?
I wish I had skilz.
satby
@OzarkHillbilly: thanks for this! I’m looking for new bathroom flooring too; the previous owners put carpet over plywood. This house predates plywood, I think, so I’m afraid to pry that up and see what horrors are below.
I wish I had skilz too Baud. I have to pay people to do this, and good ones are hard to find even with references.
OzarkHillbilly
@RAVEN: I got the Breckenridge for our windowless bath. The stuff is not cheap but I think the extra money is well spent.
It shouldn’t be a problem with the “wood” pattern types but the “marble” patterns have a noticeable repeat over a run of 5 or 6 tiles, and one needs to watch the laying so that it doesn’t become obvious to the eye.
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud: Naaaah, I just fake it well.
@satby: Nearly all the bathrooms in the city of STL have poured concrete floors with a mosaic of ceramic tile over that. The ones that don’t, have T&G flooring. Assuming you have T&G, a layer of 1/4″ ply should be sufficient for just about anything to go over it. The Loft flooring might not need even that.
NotMax
@gene108
Yeah, it’s that it is a group of serious hobbyists and not a commercial amusement attraction that I find intriguing.
rikyrah
Good Morning, Everyone ? ??
Baud
@rikyrah:
Good morning.
JR
@OzarkHillbilly: Let me ask you a question. We had our kitchen done by a crummy contractor about 4 years back. He did the job we hired him for (remove load bearing staircase, install beam, update joists in ceiling) but did some crap finish work. Fortunately we were wise enough to not entrust him with the cabinets (IKEA to the rescue there) and he subcontracted the walls to a bona fide plasterer so there are no real *nightmare* problems left to worry about.
But what the guy did terribly is the floor. He had one of his guys — obviously not a flooring guy — lay tile for us and the guy made several mistakes that pretty much were set in stone on the first day. He laid out the tile from one edge of the kitchen to the other, for one, which is a stylistic mistake, but one that can be forgiven. The OSB on the floor was a little uneven but instead of using self-leveling compound he just used different thickness of thinset to make the floor “flat”. It’s nothing obvious to the untrained eye but its not flat and some of the tiles have a hollowness to them that makes me worried about them popping. We also have a cracked tile near the basement stair because they tried to overcome a warped OSB by 1) trying to drill a million screws into it and 2) using metal stair edging to clamp the whole thing down.
To his credit he was able to keep the tile (a new floor) on the same level as an adjoining hardwood floor that was probably laid down ~30 years ago and re-finished at least once. Question is whether I can patch and make this work out for intermediate term or if I’m really just looking at a tear and re-do (at the expense of a few grand).
Overall it looks fine it’s just the little details that bug the crap out of me.
Betty Cracker
So, it’s my mother-in-law’s birthday, and all her children have gathered to throw a big party. I’m in charge of arranging the cake. I was going to get my daughter to help me bake a fancy tiered cake from scratch. We’ve watched every episode of Great British Bake-Off and felt we were surely up to the task!
But my daughter was in an accident a month ago — she’ll be fine, but she injured her left hand pretty badly and is still on the mend. We chickened out a few weeks back and ordered a cake instead.
The lady we hired to make the cake has tons of great reviews and a gallery of photos, etc. She seems professional and asked all the right questions.
But I was supposed to receive “sneak peek” photos yesterday and never did. I texted her, and she said she was working on it and would send pics later but she did not.
Now I’m freaking the fuck out! If this lady ghosts on me, I am SO screwed! I’ll have to figure out how to make a show-stopper cake that’ll feed 40 people by 1 pm. OMFG!
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Betty Cracker: It sounds like she’s just running late, but OMG.
Sorry to hear about your daughter’s hand. May the healing go quickly.
OzarkHillbilly
@Betty Cracker: Everybody likes cupcakes.
NeenerNeener
@Betty Cracker: You might be able to get the local grocery store bakery to do a sheet cake with a picture of your MIL in the center (you supply the picture, of course) on short notice if push really comes to shove. It won’t be a showstopper but it will be personalized and it will feed people.
Gvg
@Betty Cracker: it may be that her skills are in cakes and not in posting pics or reassuring customers. Very different skill sets.
However, while staying calm, maybe look at local choices for premade cakes and pick out a back up. If you have a back up plan, even if not a satisfactory one, it might not be such a terror while you wait.
Kay
Held accountable, finally:
Raven
@OzarkHillbilly: I’m pretty sure the boss lady would have to have wood style.
Raven
@Betty Cracker: publix
NotMax
@Betty Cracker
She may be slammed with orders for graduation shindigs, so things besides baking may have fallen a bit to the wayside. Which doesn’t mean you’ve been shut out insofar as receiving what you ordered..
Or it is possible a message from her to you, with pix, went into the spam folder of your e-mail account.
Kay
@Raven:
We had it put in the kitchen and it’s great. Recommend. It’s an older house so the floor probably isn’t perfectly level. They did put some kind of sheet underlayer beneath it though.The underlayer is like a pad with a little spring to it which the flooring person says makes it more comfortable to walk on, and it does.
OzarkHillbilly
Percy got a 2nd hotspot 2 weeks ago. A week ago Thursday I called the vet but they couldn’t get us in till Tuesday. Took him in and he had a foul smelling knot of matted hair behind his ear. Couldn’t see anything, so the vet tried to cut it off and he let out a howl of such unimaginable pain she stopped immediately and said, “It will grow out and in a week or 2 you should be able to cut it off.” gave him a shot of steroids and we got a scrip of antibiotics and off we went.
The next morning the knot of hair was gone and in it’s place was a bloody mess of his fine hair matted down. He ripped it right out. I thought he took some skin with it and in an overabundance of caution took him back to the vet. All is fine, he is definitely going to the groomer’s again, and henceforth on a regular basis, but for now he has to wear the ZEN inflatable donut of shame, which he really doesn’t mind because he has a pillow for his head wherever he goes. The other nice thing about it is it doesn’t block his peripheral vision.
I do have to take it off him if he goes outside tho. No donut is going to get in the way of his rabbit chasing. I learned that the hard way, took me 15 minutes to find it.
OzarkHillbilly
@Raven: I figured, but I wanted to give a heads up just in case.
NotMax
@OzarkHillbilly
Zen and the Art of Canine Maintenance.
;)
OzarkHillbilly
@NotMax: I should give credit where credit is due: It was my wife who insisted on one and went to the trouble of finding one.
Amir Khalid
@JR:
Wlmer may be seekig the D nom, but he is not a D.
mad citizen
@Kay: Somewhat related (I’ll get there), I watched the movie the Killing Fields (1984) Thursday night (meant to watch it a couple years ago before a trip to Cambodia; and I had seen it back in the day–the mid-1980s). The movie is about the relationship between a NY Times journalist Sydney Schanberg and his Cambodian friend and facilitator Dith Pran. Anyway, I was reading Schanberg’s wikipedia article and came across this paragraph:
“On September 14th, 1987 Schanberg published a Newsday editorial entitled “Donald Trump-Public-relations master” in which he wrote, sarcastically, “The part I like best about Donald Trump is his deep and abiding concern for the homeless and the poor”. He called Trump a “public-relations virtuoso”, described an ongoing feud with Koch who Trump called a “moron” and “a jerk”, provided numerous instances of Trump’s claims of superior intellect (“It would take an hour and a half to learn everything there is to learn about missiles. I think I know most of it anyway”), and he warned “He can deny all he wants any designs on the White House, but Trump has the kind of instincts that are perfect for the age we live in-the age of stage smoke and magic mirrors and imagery…In short, he sees the kind of men we admire and elect these days and he naturally asks: Why not me?”. Schanberg ended the piece with, “In an age where smoke is everything, Donald Trump can blow it with the best of them”. (from: Schanberg, S. Donald Trump-public-relations master. Finger Lakes Times (from Newsday). September 14, 1987 page 4.)”
When I re-read this, left unsaid is that in 1987 the reference to the “age of stage smoke and magic mirrors and imagery” was surely pointing in Ray-Gun’s direction.
Schanberg died July 9, 2016. Anyway, sorry to go into the Continuing Crisis so early on a Saturday morning, but felt like sharing. I’m off to my Farmer’s Market to buy some lettace and eggs and who knows what.
Kay
@Amir Khalid:
I wish one of the D governors who are running would get some publicity. I want back-ups. Generally acceptable people to fill holes’should holes appear. I realize they would probably find this insulting that voters would switch them in and out but voters will switch them in and out if that happens, if one drops and the other rises, with the exception perhaps of the hard core Berniecrats.
Scotian
I have enjoyed my years here as mainly a lurker and occasional commentator but that is coming to a quick end sadly. I had a CT scan 10 days ago and 2 days after that was told I have pancreatic cancer and it is already onto my liver. Yesterday saw the surgeon and was told palliative chemo is all they can do, and if I am really lucky maybe get 6 more months, but that the blood clotting disorder I have makes that very unlikely. Basically told to get affairs on order as fast as possible because each day from now on easily could be my last. I was too upset last night to do this then.
The saddest part? The reason I have been so quiet the last couple of years is first taking care of a mother that stroked and ended up with vascular dementia who ended up institutionalized for it, and 4 months after her stroke we found out dad had cancer. His being colo-rectal, at first thought to be curable but in the end not. My wife and I have long since moved in so he would not be alone, and he is down to his last days, and the we get mine. His shock is not mild, as Monday is my 52nd birthday.
I’ve always been a Murphy magnet but this really sucks. I have long enjoyed reading both FPers and regular commenters here, and have done a lot of that through this period. It sucks I won’t see the end of Trump either. Thank you all and good luck. I hope to still get to comment a time or two more, but if not I wanted to be able to say goodbye.
A special thanks to Adam Silverman, it was his work in the 2016 elections that gave me things to point to when I was trying to get across to others just how blatantly Putin and Russia were interfering in elections now. When one nuclear power goes after the most powerful nuclear as well as other powers that openly on a core matter that is bad news for everyone, and Adam was a godsend then and remains so. I’ve been an election worker all my adult life because I consider civic duty and elections being managed and secured by the citizenry a core political ethos for any responsible member of a democratic society. I know, how terribly old fashioned of me.
mrmoshpotato
@OzarkHillbilly: But can these beavers see Russia from their dam?
Kay
@mad citizen:
No problem. I, like you, think it is a “continuing crisis” (rather than a one-off). I think it’s bigger than Trump.
It’s unheard of with prosecutors but she could have just admitted she got it wrong and apologized. She needs to admit she got it wrong, and that they were harmed as a result of that.
OzarkHillbilly
@Scotian: Vaya con Dios.
Kay
@Scotian:
I’m so sorry you got such bad news and please check in if you’re up to it.
mad citizen
@Scotian: @Scotian: Scotian, I’m an occasional commenter but have only been here since Dec 2016 (was looking for something for sanity then). Thanks for sharing, I’m sure we’ll all be thinking of you today and going forward.
Betty Cracker
@Scotian: Good God, I am so sorry to hear this terrible news! Concepts like “unfair” and “this sucks” don’t begin to cover it. Peace, strength and courage to you and your family at this difficult time. We will be thinking of you.
chris
Found this for those looking for something to do next Saturday. https://www.impeach.org/event/impeachment_day_of_action_june15/
SiubhanDuinne
@Scotian:
I am so terribly sorry. No words, except to say that however much time you have remaining, I wish you comfort and peace. Thank you for being part of this community.
Baud
@Scotian:
You are stronger than I would be. It does seem bad things only happen to good people these days.
OzarkHillbilly
@mad citizen:
Obviously your search continued.
debbie
@Betty Cracker:
No, can her ass now. That is not a good sign.
We have seen your baking skills. You are perfectly capable of baking something special.
debbie
@Betty Cracker:
I think you’ve said you’re on Facebook? Check out this FB group. There are recipe files for just about everything.
trnc
@RAVEN:
I’m in warm, moist NC, so adjust accordingly for where you are. If you can put a humidity gauge in the crawl and it’s hitting 65-70%, definitely read on.
If the vents are for the purpose of keeping the crawl space dry, it’s unlikely to work. The theory behind foundation vents was that they would create air movement and keep condensation from forming by keeping air and surface temperature the same (since condensation happens when a cold surface meets warm air). It’s worse when A/C is involved because your subfloor is a cool surface meeting the warm air from the outside, and especially bad if A/C vents run in the crawlspace. If your cottage doesn’t have A/C, maybe not so bad.
At any rate, you should at least install a vapor barrier if you don’t already have one. This will reduce moisture from the ground, which can be significant. If you’re able to dig a hole in the lowest corner and put in a small pump and run the drain line outside and away from the house, that’s even better. If you still have humidity over 60%, you might consider closing off the vents and installing a dehumidifier that you can drain into the pump or outside if you don’t install a pump.
My 800 sq ft crawl had a vapor barrier but was still at 70% humidity. Putting in the pump and a small dehumidifier ($125 from Lowes) has kept it at 50% through all of the large amounts of rain we’ve gotten here in the last year.
debbie
@Scotian:
I am so sorry to read this and wish I could come up with something meaningful to say, other than life really sucks sometimes (and this is one of them).
debbie
@Kay:
If you’re talking about Linda Fairstein, I agree with you. Prosecutors everywhere should be condemning her.
Thanks to Mexico’s capitulating, Trump has found his sweet spot with tariffs and now realizes he can get whatever he wants with him. How long until he proposes imposing tariffs on Democrats?
Immanentize
@NotMax:
If I was near NYC I would certainly visit that place. I love when people put there amazing efforts into their creative passions. And you can ride trains too!
OzarkHillbilly
Seaman on St. Charles Is Coming on T-Shirts All Over Town . Yes, pun intended.
Ohio Mom
@NotMax: No, but I will save your find for a future Ohio Family trip to my ancestral homeland. Looks like fun.
Also on my list: the Everglades-like airboat tours of the New Jersey swamp, the new ferry that goes down the coast of Queens and Btooklyn, and Chinatown in Flushing.
Chris Johnson
The question is not whether Trump will win or lose the vote: he already lost and that’s only gotten worse for him.
The question isn’t whether electoral college machinations will deliver the guy a technical victory, because THAT DIDN”T HAPPEN EITHER.
The question is whether the Republicans, with the aid of Russia and anyone else they can find, will cheat hard enough that they’d effectively say “Oh, would you look at that: he won!” and just straight-up make it up in the absence of reality to support them.
They could go “Trump won 99% of all votes, suck it traitors!”. Or they could go “Trump won 49% of all votes but in these states that JUST HAPPEN to add up to an electoral college victory, gosh golly too bad for you huh?”. And in either case they can and will just MAKE UP what results they want. The only question is whether they want to maintain the image of a deeply divided country or whether they just want to brazen it out and declare Democrats don’t exist.
Last time they arranged it so it looked like a close race.
Gbbalto
@Scotian: So very sorry. Peace be with you. I have enjoyed your comments over the years.
Ohio Mom
@RAVEN: Already on my must-do list, I am a big Dylan fan. Just hope my eye settles down from my cataract surgery in time for me to actually focus on tne screen.
OzarkHillbilly
@debbie:
Don’t fall for trump’s marketing BS like his fans do:
zhena gogolia
@Scotian:
I am so, so sorry. I will be thinking of you.
Sab
@Scotian: I am so sorry. I have enjoyed your rare comments over the years. Thank you for letting us know.
something fabulous
@Scotian: Oh from one mostly-lurker to another– I am so sorry to read this! How brave and thoughtful to let us know. If it is not overstepping, is your wife already a commenter/lurker here as well? Maybe she would find some comfort peeking in from time to time, as some other family members have in the past; and you could send updates through her if you both felt like it, as well. And you know we would welcome her, in our snarly way. May your kind helpfulnesses to your family come back to you now a thousandfold (though of course that’s not why you did it.) All the best to you in this uncertain and difficult time.
zhena gogolia
@Scotian:
I hope Adam sees your message, I know it would mean a lot to him. Maybe e-mail him directly? He’s not usually around the threads at this time of day.
chris
@Scotian: Damn, I’m so sorry. Don’t know what else to say but if there’s anything I can do from down here in sou’west Nova or if you just need to vent please get my email from a front pager.
Amir Khalid
@Scotian:
I’m very sorry to hear your bad news. I wish you and your family peace and strength.
Immanentize
@Scotian:
Scotian, I am so saddened to learn this. And sorrow for your wife and family….
Shit.
From cruel experience, I have one piece of advice for all my jackal friends here, Scotian included — create a list of every — Every — password you have for every account, device, mailbox, lock, etc. that you use. Everyone of them. Laptop, banks, roku, credit cards, and on and on.
And please do not forget your phone(s) password(s). Please?
debbie
@OzarkHillbilly:
Perhaps, but that won’t stop him from trying.
BC in Illinois
@Scotian:
@Kay:
What Kay said:
Peace.
gene108
@Scotian:
I am so sorry. I wish I had more or better words to convey my sympathies for you.
I liked your occasional comments. You will be missed.
NotMax
@Scotian
May you fare well wherever you may fare. Jackaldom will be the lesser with your absence.
Immanentize
@debbie:
Mexico didn’t capitulate, the Auto and big produce (meat and veggies) companies told Trump to stop his foolishness or else.
NotMax
@Immanentize
Also too, the pushback from Texas.
beth
@Scotian: I’m so sorry for your terrible news – I wish you peace in your time remaining.
Citizen_X
@Scotian: So sorry to hear that.
trnc
@OzarkHillbilly:
Yet still not as cheap as his cult members
Immanentize
@Scotian:
I know many here have previously talked about their family experiences with pancreatic cancer. My Dad died of that particular evil. But in some ways, the six months from diagnosis to his death were some of the best of our relationship — and I was mostly in Texas while he was in NY. So, as horrible as all that was I remember him more fondly for that time we did have together.
Baud
@OzarkHillbilly:
Last night, Kristen Welker on MSNBC was parroting the administration’s line about what a momentous deal it was, but thankfully the MSNBC panel, including Jen Rubin, brought it back to reality that it was all smoke and mirrors.
Kay
@debbie:
I feel like never admitting you are wrong is Trumpian- obviously was a thing before Trump, but he’s made it more important that people in power admit errors. This “I’m standing firm with my obviously and tragically wrong decisions” can’t come without consequences or everyone will do it. Check it. Nip it, if not in the bud but in the full bloom it’s currently in. Draw a line.
debbie
@Immanentize:
Even the appearance of capitulation is too much.
Immanentize
@NotMax:
Perhaps the recent polls showing Trump neck and neck — or losing! Texas to Biden had something to do with it.
RedDirtGirl
@NotMax: Hey there. When are you coming through the city? Late summer? Working on putting together a jackal klatsch and it would be nice to see you again!
debbie
@Kay:
Agreed absolutely.
Kristine
@NotMax: If you like museums and have never visited The Cloisters, highly recommended.
And touristy as it sounds, a cruise around the island of Manhattan. I was amazed at how much green space there was. Also cool to see all the bridges and how the boroughs fit together. There are other neat stories along the way.
I’ve also taken a Greenwich Village ghost tour. I’ve found ghost tours a good way to learn stories about an area. No need to believe in ghosts.
Ohio Mom
@Scotian: Oh dear, I am so, so, sorry.
I hope you find a great hospice or other team to help you through these last days and weeks, and we can hope, months, for you and your wife deserve extra hands-on support in dealing with this shocking looming loss. We are always here with virtual support — limited as it is, it is sincere.
I hope you know you did hard and important things in your life, taking care of your elders, and that this thought brings you some satisfaction. Wishing you peace.
beth
@Immanentize: Agreed – I lost my husband earlier this year and received paperwork from the bank two weeks later to convert our accounts to my name only before I had even notified them of his death (I guess Social Security notified the bank). They also cancelled his online access – thank goodness I had my own passwords set up under my name.
Kay
@Baud:
He folded. He issued another dumb ultimatum and then had to – HAD TO- back off it. Worst negotiator ever.
OzarkHillbilly
@debbie: trump doesn’t make ‘deals’, he warms them over and slaps a new name on them. Drum (again) on the new NAFTA:
Immanentize
@NotMax:
To add to your NYC trip while thinking about trains — have you gone to The High Line yet? It is, in the original sense of the word, awesome. On a pretty day, it is something like movie magic.
RedDirtGirl
@Scotian: Aw, fuck. So sorry to hear this. Thank you for sharing this with us. Enjoy the time you have left, as much as you can. Holding you in the light.
Edith
Sister Golden Bear
@Scotian: I’m so very sorry.
FWIW, as you may know my mother died from pancreatic cancer last year. One tip we got from the hospice nurses was that in the final days she could ask us to up the dose of pain meds so that she’d be comatose (and out of pain). She agreed, and we were told to keep asking for increased doses as needed — and that no one would second-guess things as long as we said she was having break-through pain. Just an option if you reach the point where oblivion is preferable.
NotMax
@RedDirtGirl
Still torn between either late July/early August or late August/early September. Once I get off my ample butt and book flights, will contact a front pager to try to set up at gathering. Mom goes off to Tanglwood for about 10 days each August so I have to work my dates around that.
MomSense
@Betty Cracker:
I once saw the coolest wedding cake that was made out of cleverly stacked donuts. Fingers crossed for you today.
Kay
@debbie:
Mexico knows now exactly how far he will go, which is fake threat. They knew it before- they know full well how much trade with them is important to the US, despite Trump’s low quality hires pretending they’re wholly powerless before the mighty US, but now they know how far loose cannon will go- which is “noise”.
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud: It’s all we can do, just keep pointing out how empty and devoid of real wold meaning trump’s “deals” are and hope that people in the muddy middle are listening. The trumpaloons won’t care one way or the other.
Quinerly
@Immanentize: My dad died from it 11 years ago today. 3 weeks from diagnosis to death. He had had dementia from a head injury for a few years, so we couldn’t even explain the diagnosis to him. Died at home with me holding him. I eased him out of this world over the course of two days with the morphine home hospice provided. He never woke up, once that first little bit of morphine started. That was a blessing.
Sloane Ranger
@Scotian: I’m so sorry. There is nothing I can say. My thoughts are with you.
Steve in the ATL
@Immanentize: in case you missed my comment to you last night on the site rebuild thread, props for the John Hiatt reference. He’s one of my favorite songwriters (and moved up one spot when Guy Clark left to claim his heavenly reward for writing “L.A. Freeway”). I even interrupted my Guadalcanal Diary musical vigil to listen to “Slow Turning”.
You’re still in probation for liking a Yoko Ono song, but you’re in a strong position to back up Omnes who has my musical proxy. Watch out for MikeJ, though—he’s got excellent taste as well.
beth
@Betty Cracker: Publix has a line of sheet cakes they call “Special Edition” that require 24 hours notice that are a step above their normal cakes but not so detailed they involve weeks of advance notice like their tiered cakes. They’ve got some nice ones – we’ve ordered them at the office for special occasions.
Ohio Mom
@Kay: Thank the powers that be that Trump has indeed no ability to negotiate. What a world that would be if he was. Shudder.
ThresherK
@NotMax: I recommend the Society of Illustrators, if you’re into that. Also the Cooper-Hewitt, if you’re into that.
Baud
@OzarkHillbilly:
Agree. But more fundamentally, I don’t understand why people hope beyond hope that Republicans will succeed while always viewing Dem successes as not good enough. That’s the underlying psychology that holds us back.
Immanentize
@Sister Golden Bear:
My father was a mechanical engineer and had that mindset. When he was nearing the end, he had this conversation with his Oncologist. The Doctor was from India, and by training or empathy had exactly my Dad’s same mindset — or could read his mind….
Anyhoo, my Dad and I went in together for his chemo and my Dad was worried. He told the Doc he was taking a Dilaudid in the morning and of course one before bed, but he was finding himself needing/wanting one mid day too… The Dr. immediately sussed up my Dad and figured out he was afraid of some consequence from drug use.
He told my Dad: “Take whatever you need, there is no such thing as an addicted dying man.”
MomSense
@Scotian:
Scotian, I am so very sorry to hear your news. You have truly been through medical hell with your folks and now this diagnosis. We will all be here to support you and even if you don’t feel up to commenting, know we will be thinking of you. Please let your wife know we are thinking of her and how tough this is for her. Is there anything we can do?
Kay
@debbie:
They have a political problem and it’s that crossings from Mexico are UP under Trump, not down. It’s complicated- it’s not wholly attributable to Trump but bottom line is Trump’s approach didn’t work. At all. It’s going in the opposite direction. It’s truly amazing how bad at this job they are. It is worse than when he took office and it is supposedly their reason for being there.
So let’s review. Bad at building, bad at negotiations, bad at reducing border crossings. His supposed areas of special expertise. He brings nothing to the table, because that’s the only thing that can even loosely be described as “work” that they do.
rikyrah
@Scotian:
I’m so sorry ???
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Scotian: I am so sorry. Strength and peace to you and yours.
Steve in the ATL
@Scotian: oh man, that’s awful. Saw my wife’s grandfather go through that and echo the advice others have given here: take all the drugs you need or want. There’s no reason to suffer through that pain.
Pinacacci`
@Scotian: May your days be filled with love and grace.
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud: Yep. The entire Republican Party is a pus filled canker sore on the ass end of democracy. We can barely get anyone to notice how, even tho so much of the American political system is rigged to favor Repubs that’s not enough, they have to try and rig it even more through voter suppression, gerrymandering, and outright criminal acts.
AM in NC
@Scotian: So so sorry to hear this. Sending strength your way. Sending peace. Sending love from a stranger, but a fellow member of this community. And also to your wife.
Steve in the ATL
@Kay: do we have any idea of what percentage of the crossings are actual Mexicans versus Central Americans and others? Aren’t most of the asylum seekers Central Americans? And aren’t those countries “shitholes” because of (1) the CIA and US multinational corporations destabilizing their governments for fun and profit, and (2) (a) drug cartels feeding the US demand for their product, and (2) (b) the ever-disastrous US War on Drugs?
Baud
New thread up on the Deal.
Betty
@Scotian: So terribly sorry to hear all you have been through and still face. Sending you love and hoping those around you are able to provide much support. Puts our fears and concerns in perspective.
OzarkHillbilly
@Immanentize:
Wiser words have never been spoken.
NotMax
@Kristine
The Cloisters and the Circle Line tour? Last time was 50+ years ago.
@Immanentize
Sadly, things involving extensive walking are … questionable, especially in high summertime heat. Kind of always wanted to visit the Little Red Lighthouse, but the time for that may have passed. Might get around to the Morris-Jumel Mansion this time, which is more my speed. Maybe even a pit stop at The Hall of Fame for Great Americans as a meditative respite.
OzarkHillbilly
@Kay: Wait a minute Kay, he had a nice photo op with Kim that one time and later got a love letter from him.
Gin & Tonic
@Immanentize: A password manager like 1password is very strongly recommended. Very.
Immanentize
@Steve in the ATL:
Kiss, Kiss, Kiss!
TS (the original)
@Scotian: May you & your family find peace in your love
Gin & Tonic
@Steve in the ATL: (1) Yes. (2)(a) Yes. (2)(b) Yes.
HTH.
Immanentize
@Gin & Tonic:
Yes, but even that does not usually capture your computer or phone or other device logins. Unless you remember to put them in too
Gin & Tonic
@Immanentize: Due to my work I have to manage a multitude of passwords. Without that I’d be lost. But yes, you have to input them manually. Still better than paper.
Steve in the ATL
@Gin & Tonic: thank you, Arab friend!
zhena gogolia
@Scotian:
Maybe you will. I’ll pray for that.
Gelfling 545
@OzarkHillbilly: My dog, though short haired, is very susceptible to skin problems. She got quite bad in the spring and while meds cleared up the infection that has started and steroids stopped the itching the skin wasn’t really looking any better, hair not growing back, etc. I tried this kind of out of desperation and it worked great. Now that she’s better, I still use it as her regular shampoo and it seems to be keeping any further problems from developing. CuraBenz
OzarkHillbilly
@Gelfling 545: Thanx, if it doesn’t work on Percy I can use it.
Dog Mom
@Scotian: I am so very sorry for you and your family. I hope that you have many moments of peace with loved ones where time stops and there is no pain and no worries of the future. You have great courage – may that keep your spirit strong.
O. Felix Culpa
@Scotian: You are a good and caring person and have done much to improve the world. Thank you. Wishing you comfort and peace.
imonlylurking
@Scotian: That is some terrible news, Scotian. I don’t know where you live but I know there are Jackals pretty much everywhere. Please let us know if you or your wife need a hand with anything.
Another Scott
@Scotian: Thank you for letting us know. :-(
You’ve done very well with the time you’ve had – you’re a good example for the rest of us. That’s all we can do – try to be a good example.
Peace to you and comfort to your friends and loved ones. Post when you can.
Best wishes,
Scott.
Quinerly
@Scotian: so, so very sorry. I missed your comment on the first pass through. You are in my thoughts.
Another Scott
@Steve in the ATL: BBC News – Why are Africans entering the US via Mexico?:
Donnie thinks that the world revolves around him, and he can make it stop via making mouth noises.
It doesn’t and he can’t.
The USA has a huge momentum and it takes a lot of things going wrong for her direction to change. Donnie’s determined to do as many wrong things as possible. Will we get him and his minions out of office before they wreck everything? Hard to say… :-/
[eta:] Honduras and other Central American countries didn’t remove their high levels of lead from their gas until ~ 1996. As Drum has pointed out, it takes ~ 20 years for lead’s effects to peak, so it’s not surprising that violence is off the charts there. The way to solve the migration problem is to invest in the economy and lead mitigation (and appropriate law enforcement) in Central America, not put tariffs on Mexican cars and vegetables.
Cheers,
Scott.
Scotian
I am very touched by the replies to my post and I take them to heart. My wife alas is not a blogger/writer type at all so the chances of her ever being here are slim to none. I feel I must also be clear on this, I will not last this year out even in best case scenario, I literally have the worst kind of tumor possible, so no way to see even who will be the one against Trump, let alone anything else. I cannot afford anything but the coldest clearest eyes about this to meet my responsibilities to my own loved ones.
I live in Halifax NS so I rather doubt any jackals are close enough to be of help but knowing that if there were they would be is one the reasons I value this community as much as I do, enough for you to be the first outside of family to know what is going on. I will be spending the next few days doing that for local acquaintances.
I do take some comfort in knowing that my caring for my parents as I have been doing was the honourable thing to have done, and that I have practiced what I have preached, yet alas I have none in my life here that can do the same for me, my wife cannot drive because of epilepsy, my best friend, only real one really these days, doesn’t have one and will need some weeks learning once we can get her to a driver’s school. Which if this were a slower cancer killer wouldn’t be so bad, but hey that is life.
I always said I was happy life was inherently unfair because if lpife were truly fair you would know you deserved every bad thing that ever happenned to you. After all of this, my belief in that is only strengthened
So there is that at least
I may comment more here because my time will be free now that I have gone from caregiver role to needing care until my end.
Will chat as possible, and thanks again everyone for their warm thoughts, it really is helping in a dark time for me.
kindness
The idea that Democrats next presidential nominee has to be white/minority/male/female/city/boonies is abhorrent to me. I mean sure, it’s OK if we have preferences. That is what one prefers. It should never be locked into the mix on a public level though. That is by definition just another form of bigotry. Politicians that we like are bigger than just the policies they fight for. Their personalities come into play and that’s OK too. The right person is whom ever that is.
I’d say there should be no absolutes but I don’t feel that way. Take abortion rights & birth control. That should be sacrosanct. Here I am breaking my own post. We liberals are funny beasts.
Kamela is my favorite but I am loving me some Elizabeth. I’ll vote for who ever wins the nomination unless it is Jill Stein.
debbie
@Kay:
And doesn’t work and won’t work! Ever! Where is the one Republican nasty enough to intervene on the world’s behalf? //
chris
@Scotian: See my earlier comment. I’ll be in hfx for a couple days on 1 July.
zhena gogolia
@Scotian:
I guess I am praying that Trump will be gone by one means or another, not necessarily having to wait until Nov 2020.
I wish you all the peace you can find in your remaining time. You are very courageous.
debbie
@Sister Golden Bear:
My mother had several kinds of cancer throughout her body, yet she died as peacefully as a person could. I never saw a moment of pain cross her face. The hospice staff had no worries about addiction, and there’s no better choice they could have made. My father died of cancer about 30 years earlier, was comatose for the last couple of months and based on facial expressions, etc., endured much pain. Medicine has come very far, even in terms of pain.
MomSense
@chris:
Will you be passing through Maine on your way to NS? Perhaps we could arrange for a care package delivery.
Adam L Silverman
@Scotian: Thank you for the kind words. We are keeping you and your family in out thoughts. If you’re up to it, please let us know how you’re doing.
chris
@MomSense: Um, no. I too live in NS a couple hundred KM from Halifax. Have siblings in the city and go to visit every couple of months. But next time I pass through Maine, probably in September, to visit my aunt I’ll let you know. I want some more of those Duck Fat fries in Portland so maybe a meetup?
MomSense
@chris:
Do I know about duckphat! Ha! I cannot resist their poutine and I am a veggie. Also, too if you want to do a meetup, I think Aleta and Immanetize and a few others want to do one this summer. My kid plays the last Wednesday of every month at Oxbow which has a duckphat takeout booth right outside. Maybe we could do it on one of those nights.
My youngest always gets two orders of duckphat fries when we go hear his brother’s band play.
J R in WV
@Scotian:
Sometimes the best people get the crummiest deal. So sorry for your bad news, everyone’s worst nightmare. We’ll work hard to overcome the electoral catastrophe you have witnessed!
Do please feel like you can gripe about things here as much as you want to. We’ll be as supportive as possible!
You will be in everyone’s thoughts! Hospice at home was a blessing for both my parents, they also have care facilities if you would prefer to go that route. Talk to your surgeon/oncologist for a recommendation on the best facility locally.
Best of luck !!
SFAW
@Scotian:
I’m so sorry to read of this. I’m hoping for miracles, but in the meantime, sending hugs and love to you and lour loved ones.
chris
@MomSense: Cool! We’ll see. Auntie is down York way so Portland is easy. I was there in April and we agreed that September would be a good time for another visit.
MomSense
@chris:
September is the best month in Maine.
chris
@MomSense: Same here.
Elizabelle
@Scotian: Godspeed, Scotian. You have such courage to tell us. Wishing you some sweet last months, that you keep the pain at bay, and thinking of your wife and all that she’s been through too. It sucks that you are leaving this existence too early. Have enjoyed your intelligence and humanity on display in your comments here. Dog knows, we need more of that, not less.
Ohio Mom
@Scotian: I like the thought that it’s good life is unfair because this way, you don’t have to take every crappy thing that happens to you personally. I’m remembering that for future use.
Many years ago, a friend who was raised a pretty serious Catholic reported having a conversation with her mom about what happens after you die. Mary maintained that in the afterlife, you finally understand why life is unfair, the good suffer, evil triumphs, and so on; her mother said, No, you finally don’t care about all that.
TaMara (HFG)
@Scotian: I am so sorry to hear this. My family has been hit hard by pancreatic cancer, so I know what a horrible, sneaky cancer it can be. I wish you peace and check in if you can.
JoeyJoeJoe
@NotMax:
Another idea is the Prohibition museum on St Marks in the East Village if you like alcohol and mob history
Brachiator
@MomSense:
A college roommate’s family had a house in Rockland, Maine, I think. We went up one fall to take a school break. I remember it was very nice.
Aleta
@Scotian: Your writing has always resonated for me. Thank you for writing about what you’ve gone through and are facing.
I think it’s OK to celebrate the Trumps demise early; their long fall has already begun and they are going down hard. I’ll join you. I sometimes imagine the streets on the day he leaves the WH and feel the joy, which I think is good for my stress, body and mind.
I second momsense: if you and your wife think of something we can do to support or ease a difficulty, a note to John or a FPer would suffice to let us know.
My late niece sent me this from the Mary Oliver poem “In Blackwater Woods:”
“To live in this world, you must be able to do three things: to love what is mortal; to hold it against your bones knowing your own life depends on it; and, when the time comes to let it go, to let it go.”
Sending good wishes to you and your family.
Aleta
@Scotian: I copied that quote of yours, it’s such a good one. Looking forward to reading more whenever you are up for it.
Tazj
@Scotian: I’m so sorry. Yes, you have done a very honorable and difficult thing by taking care of your parents. I wish you the best and will keep you and your family in my thoughts.
westyny
@Scotian: So very sorry to hear your news. I’m also a “mostly lurker,” but this community has been a great, humoring solace for my political outrage. I hope you can take comfort in the circle of jackels and what a stand up family member you’ve been. I think it was Jung who described the project of living as “soul-making.” Seems like you’ve done a pretty good job.
spudgun
@Scotian: Another mainly-lurker here. I don’t know what to say…I’m speechless. This breaks my heart. I am so sorry for all the pain you’ve had to endure. I will be thinking of you and sending peaceful and calming vibes your way.
Bex
@Scotian: Don’t worry about Trump. I am from Chicago and we vote early and often. One of those votes will “have your name on it” even though you are Canadian.
satby
@Scotian: I am so sorry to hear this. You may not have commented much, but several of your comments have resonated with me too. It does suck that we all don’t get a ticket that’s punched in the ripe old age zone. I hope that you have more time than you expect, and that your transition to your next adventure is peaceful. My vote against Trump will be with you in my thoughts.
Kathleen
@Scotian: Just saw your message (I’m catching up on threads). Sending you wishes for love, peace and healing for you and your wife, family and friends. I’ve enjoyed and appreciated your comments. May you experience blessings and peace.
CapnMubbers
@Scotian: Thank you for letting us know. I’ve always appreciated your comments. If there is financial need, I’m willing to help out.
Years ago, I came very close to the boundary between here and not-here. Somewhere beyond the pain, the worry about my responsibilities, and anxiety for family soon to be left behind, I reached an awareness that I had done everything I could, and a peace beyond description enveloped my whole being. I hope with all my heart that you find that peace and a pain-free transition.
Quaker in a Basement
At some point, we men are going to have to drop our pretenses and admit, “OK, we were wrong. We should have listened. Why don’t you women drive for a while.”
Any man alive knows it’s inevitable.
seefleur
@Scotian: Very late to this thread – and so very sorry to hear of your news. I also lurk, and have noted your presence at times. My heartfelt wishes for a smooth transition for you and your wife – I really don’t have the words to express how sorry I am. You have been a mensch to your fellow passengers, may you have fair winds and following seas in your remaining time. From coastal Maine, I send virtual support your way.
slightly_peeved
@Scotian: Long time lurker. So sorry to hear this. Hope your remaining days are filled with love and peace.
Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho
@Scotian: Very late reader of the thread, here .
I have enjoyed your comments very much over the years, and I’m saddened to read your news. You have posted less because you were busy with the honorable business of elder care. I wish I could offer more than my hope that you have peace and as little pain is is medically possible. I will hold you and your family in the light.
mg_65
@Scotian: Scotian, delurking to tell you that I enjoy your comments and value you for helping to make this a community where I come to for sanity and cuteness. I wish you and your family all peace and comfort. I’m sending you and your wife love — I’ll think about you when I vote against the trumpers and all they stand for. Blessings to you.