At first glance, Democrats’ performance last night in the North Carolina specials looks pretty crappy. They ran slightly behind Hillary ’16 in NC-3 and about ten points better in NC-9. The average of the two then was almost exactly the 5.5 over-performance that Dems have averaged in 34 specials since the mid-term. If the all-but-inevitable Williamson-Moulton ticket does 5.5 points better nationwide than Clinton-Kaine did, then they’ll win the popular vote by 7.5 points, which would be a fairly easy win.
Here’s a scary point, by the way: Dems win the popular vote by less than 4 points, Trump has a good chance to prevail in the Electoral College. And here’s another scary point: if the election comes out exactly like last time only with Dems flipping PA, MI, and WI, and in one of those three the margin is under 2 points or so, I think Trump is likely to contest the results and refuse to leave office. I don’t think anyone other than Jonathan Turley and Marc Thiessen will fully support him on that, on the other hand.
Anyway, I thought now might be a good time to do some fundraising. The Dem performance in NC-9 certainly frightens Republicans. Let’s raise some more money for the 17 most endangered House Democrats and help them put up fundraising totals that will scare away potential challengers.
rikyrah
The last time a Democrat won McCready’s race was 56 years ago.
56 YEARS?
Are you kidding me?
Dolt45 won by 12 points
and the clown last night barely won.
The maps will be redrawn for 2020. McCready should run again
JoeyJoeJoe
@rikyrah: 66 actually; the district had a different number before 1962. Other than two East Tennessee districts that have been Republican since the civil war, the district, along with VA-6, were the first southern districts to even elect a Republican to Congress
Doug R
Same margin as the rest of the specials?
Why all the wailing online?
Paul W.
@rikyrah: Good points, and a good reason not to despair.
Adam L Silverman
THERE IS NO POPULAR VOTE. FORGET YOU EVER HEARD THE TERM POPULAR VOTE. THERE IS ONLY THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE! FOCUSING ON ANYTHING BUT WINNING THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE MEANS THE PRESIDENT WILL BE REELECTED!!
Adam L Silverman
@Doug R: The narrative. The narrative is all. It must be fed. It must be worshipped. It must be maintained at all costs!
?BillinGlendaleCA
The House could certify the election anyway and he’s gone.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Adam L Silverman:
@Adam L Silverman: I’m a bit worn out by the navel gazing.
Adam L Silverman
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I will stop navel gazing immediately. I’ll notify Cole that he must find a new navel gazer for the front page. I wish you all well.
randy khan
Here’s my periodic reminder of Presidential succession works:
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have Democratic governors (and will have Democratic governors through the end of 2020) who will ensure that the results get certified in the ordinary course. The electoral votes will be cast in the usual way.
The process for challenging electoral votes when they are presented to Congress requires both houses to assent to considering a challenge. If the Dems control either house, no challenges to votes electing the Dem will be considered.
By law, the Presidency changes hands at noon on Inauguration Day, whether or not the then-current President agrees. The Secret Service, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and anybody else who matters will follow the law because that’s what they’re trained to do. If Trump refuses to leave the White House on his own, he will be escorted out of the building.
In theory, you could construct a scenario in which the electoral votes get tied up in court challenges for a long time, but in practice the courts always move very quickly on those things, and even Roberts is unlikely to try to slow things down. The odds of Trump losing and staying in office are, as a result, extremely low.
The Dangerman
I guarantee Trump will contest the results if he loses and I also guarantee he’ll be “escorted” off the property on 1/20/21.
I’m also reasonably sure he’ll be someplace other than the Capitol Building for the next inauguration when he loses; golfing, perhaps. Explaining his loss to Vlad in person, perhaps. Anyplace but having his loss shoved in his face. It’s gonna be the ugliest lame duck time period in history.
Mike in NC
Trump has been testing a new message at his hate rallies: not going to leave in 2024. He’s bought into the “dynasty” crap and will pass the office on to whichever of his worthless children begs for it the hardest. Wish this was all a joke.
david
Democrats are forever cursed to lose elections by 50.something to 49.something.
But, they’ll always be happy to beg for your money, because The Beast that is professional electioneering must be fed.
Adam L Silverman
@david: Also, because campaigns cost money, whether we like that reality or not. Including losing campaigns.
SiubhanDuinne
I am horrified and deeply ashamed of myself that I recognise the title music reference.
Kent
As bad as Trump is, I don’t see how he pulls off either contesting the election or not leaving office.
To do so would require the complicity of thousands of federal officials and would be an unprecedented coup. It would require every white house employee, secret service, cabinet officials, pentagon officials, etc. to go along. I don’t see that happening.
But yes, stop talking about the popular vote. Only thing that matters is the electoral college. Sucks to say it but that’s the reality we live in.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Adam L Silverman: at this point, I can’t tell if you’re trying to make a point in frustration, or making fun of all the never-trumpers who keep making this point, but…. yeah.
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I can’t tell if you’re agreeing with Adam or not, in the post that may or may not be snark but is still accurate.
Ruviana
@Adam L Silverman: @Adam L Silverman: Breathe Adam. Deep slow breaths.
DougJ
@Kent:
My son insists on watching a video of his cousin dancing to this approximately ten times a day.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@DougJ:
a song about the electoral college is the new Baby Shark?
(and yeah, I get that you probably meant to link back to Subaru Diane)
chris
@rikyrah:
That is true…but NC09 has been rejiggered and Gerrymandered within an inch of its life so many times since 1963 that the current NC09 bears little resemblance to the NC09 of 1963. Because of that its hard to make a comparison. I’m a beleaguered resident of NC09 who watched the cheating scum win a re-run of the race they had stolen last time and my overwhelming feeling is one of unfairness. However, I cant think of any remedy that would pass legal muster so here we are.
This district is really ridiculous though, the well heeled suburbanites on Charlotte’s eastern side have very little in common with my neighbors in Robeson and Bladen counties and they obviously should not be lumped together..but again..here we are.
Martin
People should keep an eye on AB5 here in CA.
Essentially, it legislates the ABC test for gig companies, classifying almost all of them as employees. It’s important for a few reasons:
1) CA is where most of these companies are headquartered, so this is a legitimate tension between lawmakers and companies that benefit the state. I don’t expect CA will weaken the legislation to accommodate those companies, but they will likely create some onramps to make it not so abrupt. The goal isn’t to put them out of business, so AB5 will have some concessions to give them time to comply.
2) CA is more likely to enforce this than other states that apply the ABC test. CA generally takes worker rights laws pretty seriously. CA makes it easy for workers to file claims against employers. Employers have relatively few rights here compared to other states (low bar, I know).
3) CAs economic might is likely to turn this into a national outcome. If NY aligns with the CA law in intent and enforcement, then it definitely will.
This will have huge implications for Amazon.
Unrelated, but on thread, T Boone Pickens, Mr Swift Boat, is dead. Good riddance.
SFAW
OT, but: according to Josh, the Rethugs in NC Lege used a morning session — (apparently) poorly attended by Dems, because they were at 9/11 memorial services — to override the Dem governor’s veto.
These motherfuckers — all Rethugs, every fucking one, none of that “but he/she is one of the good ones” crap — can’t be exiled to Russia soon enough.
SFAW
@Adam L Silverman:
Is this where you tell us “The USA is a republic, not a democracy”?
trnc
Pretty sure I can think of 5 other guys who would.
trnc
@randy khan: Getting him out of the White House will be the only reason Warren/Harris/Whomever would invite him to the inauguration. They can have someone change the locks during that time.
Adam L Silverman
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I am very serious. There is only one game in town for the presidential election and that game is the Electoral College.
kindness
I hope Trump does refuse to leave the office. I would love to see him dragged out by Capitol Police on Prime Time. Worth it!!!!
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Adam L Silverman:
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Since the meaning of my comment seems to be unclear, I’m agreeing with Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@SFAW: America is a large ice cream sundae with marshmallow fluff in addition to the hot fudge, whipped cream, and sprinkles.
Adam L Silverman
@SFAW: Also, republics are just a type of democracy.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Adam L Silverman: Ah. Okay. I share your frustration with those who seem to think we can will it away
catclub
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
is that one of those cases where the House vote is by state delegation, and the GOP probably has the majority in more state delegations
than the Democrats?
Adam L Silverman
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I go it, but I could also tell it could be read in the other direction and decided to play it for effect.
Jeffro
How exciting to see Secretary Azar’s lightning-fast response to a public health concern that is costing lives in this country and raising a huge public outcray.
What? No…we still can’t have universal background checks, an assault weapons ban, a large-magazine ban…none of that.
I’m talking about banning flavored cigarettes. THAT, apparently, we can jump on in less than a Scaramucci. Things that kills tens of thousands of Americans each year every year, not so much.
dimmsdale
@chris: Thanks for your comment. I can’t read election results from anywhere (but in particular places like NC) without wondering, “How stolen WAS it?” Was this in any way a clean election?
Amir Khalid
@Adam L Silverman:
Are the sprinkles red, white and blue?
Jeffro
@Adam L Silverman: so if I understand you correctly…what you’re saying, is…I think…that we should be paying attention to this here Electoral College thing.
Right?
;)
Hunter Gathers
He will contest the results even if he looses the popular vote and electoral college by 17 bazillion.
He will not leave the White House willingly.
And a majority of white people will back him. We’ll all be told that we can’t force him to leave, or the Cleti will cry. Either that or we get our government backed race war, which the NYT will blame on Obama’s tan suit and Stormy Daniels making fun of his wang.
PenAndKey
While undoubtedly true, I always feel a combination of rage and irritation when I hear it, and I instantly have to suppress an urge to ask whoever is saying it why that particular talking point has only gained in popularity now that the GOP is in a demographic death spiral? Why it didn’t take off until after Bush v Gore?
I know the answer, but like hell am I going to let smarmy fuck-weasels like that try and gaslight our national history. And that’s not a dig at anyone here because we’re all largely on the same page about the stakes and necessary electoral tactics, just general frustration at the GOP for so blatantly abandoning the ethos drummed into school children’s civics classes my entire generation.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Martin:
And gentlemen’s clubs
Martin
Oh, shit. I thought AB5 was throwing down a gauntlet, I missed SB 206.
Basically, you gotta pay college athletes if you license their identity. NCAA is threatening to decertify all CA universities if it passes, which basically means USC has no more reason to exist.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Trump could get curb stomped and he well refuse to leave.
rikyrah
@Hunter Gathers:
January 20, 2021 at 12:01 pm.
The new President will ordered him to be arrested
Jeffro
@kindness: I’d love it too, but I doubt we’ll get that far.
The trumpov campaign/RNC/same thing is already withholding ‘blanket’ data from down-ballot races so that those Rs won’t know just how poor trumpov is performing. That means in swing districts (and maybe even some Senate races), they won’t know how (or if) to ‘run away from’ him and his fat orange face.
Message to down-ballot Rs: you’re gonna go all out for trumpov, and you’re gonna like it
Message back to RNC: yeah well thanks for nothing, a-holes
Message from voters: um, we’re gonna go with the folks trying to protect our health care, our kids, and get us a raise, thanks
Adam L Silverman
@Amir Khalid: Damn straight. The sundae tastes like freedom!
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Amir Khalid: Of course.
PenAndKey
@Martin: considering the NCAA claims to exist to protect student athletes while their blatantly exploitive anti-renumeration rules make a mockery of their whole stated purpose, CA should tell them to take a short walk off a long pier.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Martin: You spell U$C wrong.
Baud
@rikyrah:
Yes, I will.
eric
@Martin: it still does?
Baud
BTW
Garbage.
cleek
And the NC GOP was pretty shitty today, too.
newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article234962017.html
Kent
@Hunter Gathers:
While transition of power technically takes place on January 20, there is a long transition period during which time all the outgoing administration people pack up and the incoming administration people start moving in to shadow and such. It doesn’t really matter what all the MAGA types in West Virginia and North Dakota think. What matters is what all the high ranking executive branch political appointees do. They would have to lock out all the incoming adminstation people and stay in their offices across the Federal government in every agency from Defense to Agriculture. As big of a dick as Trump is, I don’t see all his reasonably professional people in agencies doing that. Likewise, there are a ton of administration staff in the white house that make it run. They would all be complicit in an illegal coup if they all showed up to work for Trump on Jan 21. I can’t imagine very many are going to do that.
This would not be some instant Latin American style coup. It would have to be a slow motion coup in broad daylight with the complicity of thousands. I just don’t see that happening in the face of a clear electoral loss. No way.
More likely you’ll see a blizzard of pardons and bizarre attempts to use executive actions to “own the libs” and handicap the incoming administration. Bazillions of last minute oil leases and anti-environmental or pro business executive orders and emergency regulations, that sort of thing. Basically just try to shit on the place completely before turning over the keys.
Martin
@PenAndKey: CA is unlikely to back down. Everyone hates the NCAA anyway. Puts the Pac 12 in a really difficult spot. CA could throw their weight behind the Pac 12 as an independent accreditor, raising their stature. Pac 12 is unlikely to want to break from NCAA, but they lose 4 of their most prominent schools and 3 of 4 affiliates.
CA isn’t going to get out of ‘we’ll launch our own damn satellite’ mode any time soon.
MJS
It is not all wailing for the sake of wailing re: NC 09. The fact is that in the midst of the single worst administration in the history of this country, approximately 48,000 previous Democratic voters appear to have just sat out the opportunity to make sure that their representative would be there to fight back. 48,000 previous McCready voters decided to collectively shrug their shoulders. So yes, it used to be an R+12 district, and now it’s an R+1 district, but because of apathy, or a horrible GOTV effort, or some other reason, it is still an R district. And yes, the Rs saw the exact same amount of apathy, but that should have been very good for us, not just a wash. A tremendous opportunity wasted.
Chris
@dimmsdale: A friends mother works the polls in a predominantly minority district and she said her mother got the wrong ballots….people who early voted werent being listed as having early voted…but those sound like the typical bureaucratic snafus. I am waiting to get some absentee info–that was the root of the scam before. They really pulled out all the stops though, Pence was in Pembroke NC (in Robeson Co) while Trump was 30 miles north in Fayetteville NC. With all that they eaked out a 2 point win.
Martin
@Kent: Probably. But at the same time, Trump no longer has immunity from indictment and can be taken into custody on 1/20, which would both escalate and de-escalate the whole situation in a big fucking hurry.
I don’t think Trump would take the chance. My guess is he and his family is on a plane to a non extradition country on 1/20.
Kent
@Martin:
OR (home of NIKE and Adidas) and WA will be close on California’s heels. Similar laws are already on the docket here. So basically the entire PAC-12 will be on board in addition to the Mountain West. Who gives a shit about some mythical National championship when all the top athletes across the country are flooding to the west coast to sign NIKE contracts. Alabama and Clemson will fold in New York minute and nothing the NCAA can do will make the slightest bit of difference.
JPL
@Martin: My thinking is that he issues pardons for future crimes against his family.
J R in WV
@Martin:
Rarely have I been so furious as when the Repugnants started slurring John Kerry with that despicable bullshit! Wearing bandaids with purple hearts on them! Kerry was a genuine warrior who took the fight right to the enemy when the opportunity presented itself.
He later began to realize how much BS was involved in the ignition of the Vietnam war as being fought by the US, and also lived up to his highest standards in opposition to that crummy colonial warfare.
There is no member of the Republican party with even a tiny fraction of the goodness and heart of John Kerry, who spent his whole life working to make America a better place!
I was not aware that T Boone P was responsible for that Swift Boat Bullshit, but that’s one more excellent reason to despise Pickens.
Rest in Perpetual Spin you rich piece of despicable crap!
rp
The electoral college is decided by a series of popular vote contests, so the average over-performance in various states is an important metric.
Martin
@Kent: That’s my guess too. NCAA is weak, and CA knows that. We can provide cover for OR and WA lawmakers. It’s just good business for OR.
John Revolta
@Adam L Silverman:
It’s the other way around though, innit?
Martin
@JPL: Won’t hold up. He can try it, but it’ll fail.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Martin:
Not as long as Chairman Jerry* is alive.
*That’s how he got the name “Governor Moonbeam”.
JPL
@Martin: Nixon precedent.
Adam L Silverman
@John Revolta: No. A republic is one specific type of democracy. One where the people self govern by electing and/or selecting representatives of various titles to make decisions on their behalf. As opposed to direct democracy, where either all citizens are involved in all decision making or a random draw of the citizenry is involved in the decision making for each specific issue. Athens was the latter variant of direct democracy.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Martin: Might be back to the PAC-8 then.
Kent
@Martin: I was listening to the discussion of this on NPR this morning and they had on the AD for San Jose State talking about unintended consequences. His big unintended consequence? The foreign athletes they have could possibly lose their student visas if they work in the US.
That’s it. That was his WORST consequence. So foreign athletes just have to be careful about not violating the terms of their student visas? That’s the WORST consequence they could come up with?
This battle is already lost for the NCAA. They just don’t know it yet.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Adam L Silverman: We’re a bit of a hybrid since we do have initiatives and referendums.
Kent
@?BillinGlendaleCA: No chance that Utah, Colorado and the Arizona schools are going back to the WAC. Zero chance of that. They aren’t stupid. They will follow suit. They want those west coast Calfornia TV dollars and they want to keep recruiting in CA.
Ruviana
@Martin: This would be a positive outcome.
rikyrah
@Baud:
Where is Kay?
She is not wrong about them.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Kent: True, but they won’t have the cover provided by law that you’d have in CA, OR, and WA.
Kent
@?BillinGlendaleCA: UT, AZ, and CO will quickly pass equivalent laws. What do they care about the NCAA? They will do what their universities ask them to do. Most of the legislators in those states are alums of their respective state universities. It will be a domino effect spreading across the country. And the NCAA will be forced to run to Congress for help. Good luck with that.
rikyrah
@Kent:
DING DING DING DING
trollhattan
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Pac 9? Utah would miss those trips to Cali, to be sure. Still mutter over that inclusion.
catclub
@Kent:
This is when ‘governments’ step in and do things like grant Major league baseball anti-trust immunity, or something similar for the NCAA.
More than slight bits of difference.
Kent
@trollhattan: At least they didn’t invite in BYU. That would have been too much to stomach. I grew up in Eugene so I remember the PAC8 days fondly. When we could walk over to the stadium and get $5 tickets and have whole empty sections to ourselves to watch the Ducks get beat down by everyone but OSU!
Kent
@catclub: “Governments” would have to be the US Congress. Good luck with that. Most of the young Dems in power in the House are going to come down on the side of the players.
The NCAA has already lost this battle. They just don’t know it yet.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Kent: I remember the PAC-8 as well, my freshman year of college was the first year of the PAC-10.
Martin
@JPL: Was never tested in court.
rikyrah
@Kent:
I really appreciate the discussion you all are having. You have made me see the depth of what’s going on here, and why it really is a threat to the NCAA. I like it. I really like it.
trollhattan
Here’s a California BFD.
Kent
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Yeah. Back then both Arizona and Arizona State were two monster schools in the WAC surrounded by a bunch of midget schools like New Mexico State and UTEP. There is no chance they are going to go back to those days. They will do whatever it takes to stay in the PAC-12 and continue recruiting/playing in CA. Same with UT and CO. The Pac-12 is the best thing that ever happened to Utah. They have absolutely owned BYU since joining the Pac-12. Didn’t used to be the case. And CO doesn’t have a Big-12 to go back to since Nebraska, Missouri, and A&M left.
JPL
@Martin: true..
Kent
@rikyrah:
What has happened is that times and the digital economy have passed the NCAA and universities by. A decade or two ago all the talk was about whether universities should actually pay salaries to athletes. That is old economy. These days it is all about whether they can have You-Tube Channels and sign Nike contracts. Or get paid to run summer camps. The actual universities wouldn’t have to pay them a dime. The big money has all moved elsewhere to digital imaging, video games, endorsements, etc. When coaches make million dollars doing all of those things they basically have no leg to stand on. And it will really overturn college athletics.
Martin
@rikyrah: There’s a chance this will upend the college sports apple cart for some time. But it also opens up some new directions. West coast schools would like to see eSports in the NCAA package, and this may create an opportunity to force that to happen.
The NCAA divisions already negotiate games between each other. They negotiate with broadcasters. An empowered PAC-12 may lose out for a short time, but FSW or ESPN (based in CA) will sign that broadcast contract even if the NCAA disavows us. If the athletes do flow this way, they’ll still put those dollars up. Despite the Rams making the Superbowl, USC/UCLA are still the teams bringing in the bigger broadcast dollars. NCAA is the glue trying to hold all of this together, but they’ve been struggling for some time. The SEC keeps stepping out of their lane. The video game licensing is a serious problem that they don’t know how to contain. Esports has the potential to exceed traditional sports for audience (the TI9 DoTA tournament had a $35M prize pool and pulled in a larger audience – by multiples – than the NCAA final 4 does) There are always Title IX problems to deal with. How do you deal with Penn State and Michigan State and schools that do truly bad things to students. They keep failing those moral tests. The eligibility rules are a nightmare for schools to sometime deal with. The coach pay outrage is ongoing.
None of those get easier with this, and some possibly get harder, but it creates opportunity for change, and it looks like CA is going to step into that and I don’t see that NCAA is in a position to win on their terms.
Kent
Since we are talking sports, I’m really curious about the Antonio Brown thing is going to play out. He seems to have managed to ingeniously wiggle out of his Raiders trade and contract for a free agency year with the Patriots which was a big win for him. The very next day he gets hit by sex asault accusations. Very strange timing.
trollhattan
@Kent:
Strange to be sure; strange even by Raiders standards. Who knew what, when?
Next thing you know he’ll be wearing a $200k watch during games, now that that’s a thing.
Barbara
@trollhattan: “It upends my business model . . . of making money playing regulatory arbitrage at the expense of my emp . . er, I mean, the people who do stuff that we make money from. “
Martin
@Kent: I don’t know why the Patriots went along with this whole stupid scheme. Brown gave up a lot of guaranteed money to make the move. That’s surprising, and maybe not. Brady has given up a lot of salary to keep winning rings, all of which will be made up via endorsements. But I was telling my mom that the Patriots would regret this. Yeah, they may get a few TDs out of it during the season, but it probably won’t be worth it in the end. I’m guessing he’s suspended before he learns even half of Brady’s playbook.
JPL
@trollhattan: Bellicheck got a little pissy while being questioned today. Brown practiced.
trollhattan
@Barbara:
Frickin’ Uber–losing money hand over fist and therefore, fearful they’ll what, lose money even faster? How long are their backers going to put up with Theranos II? (Admittedly, the rides themselves aren’t faked. Or are they? [dun-dun-da-dunnn])
Barbara
@trollhattan: Yes, it’s inscrutable. They aren’t quite putting taxis out of business fast enough to raise rates and the self-driving cars seem unlikely to be ready on a time horizon that is soon enough to overcome labor costs.
rikyrah
@Kent:
The Patriots are paying him $30 million? Cause, that’s what was left on the table with the Raiders.
JPL
@Martin: Brady had invited him to stay with him while searching for a place to stay. Giselle must be so pleased. I think if he had been charged with rape, rather than a lawsuit, he’d be gone. Since she apparently hoped he would lend her money for a venture, it’s iffy.
JPL
@rikyrah: It’s a one year contract for 15 million.
Adam L Silverman
@?BillinGlendaleCA: We have evolved or developed into one.
Martin
@Barbara: Autonomy was the big play, but they didn’t really have the ability to pull that off. They’re pivoting to micromobility, hoping Jump takes off. I’m skeptical until cities restructure, which won’t be soon enough for them.
Kent
Uber didn’t care about anyone else’s “business model” when they invaded cities so I find it kind of rich that they are complaining about how this new law will destroy THEIR business model.
I do think Uber is Theranos II. The new scam is self driving cars which will NEVER make Uber any money. Think about it. Right now they have a fleet of millions of drivers who themselves play for the cars, car insurance, car maintenance, car storage, car repairs, car cleaning, etc. etc. Uber has millions of vehicles on the road and doesn’t need to pay a cent to buy/maintain/store any of them. Get rid of the drivers and suddenly all those costs are going to fall onto Uber. If they can’t make $$ with all their millions of drivers covering all the vehicle costs for them, how are they going to make any money when they have to cover all the vehicle costs themselves? We are talking about hundreds of billions of dollars to buy, maintain, service, and store the number of vehicles they currently have on the road. Ridiculous. The drivers are currently subsidizing Uber, not the other way around.
catclub
@trollhattan:
I would say that Uber’s secret sauce was claiming they can work around all the regulations other taxi companies have to deal with.
One large one is this, and if they cannot work around it, another source of their ( potential) cost advantage goes away.
WhatsMyName
Last time a took an Uber in Seattle I was picked up by a radio cab (they have to be dispatched) from another company. It seemed to be standard practice for them, and they picked me up when no one else wanted to cross a short bridge to get to me.
Kent
Un-fucking believable. Over on TPM right now. Apparently Kim Jong-un disliked Bolton and that was an influence on Trump????
“In discussing firing John Bolton, Trump tells reporters Kim Jong-un “wanted nothing to do with John Bolton.”
We really are in the worst possible timeline. Only Trump could possibly make Bolton seem sympathetic. I’m fucking astonished that I actually think that. Same thing happened to that horrid little racist confederate attorney general Jeff Sessions. Sheesh. That Trump can make Both Bolton and Sessions sympathetic just makes my brain freeze.
Doug R
@Hunter Gathers:
38%. And most of them are chickenshits.
Nixon was at 62% when impeachment hearings started, 17% when he resigned.
Yarrow
@Adam L Silverman: With you, Adam. The Electoral College is the only thing that matters in the presidential election. We need to focus on that.
Gravenstone
@Adam L Silverman: Someone is a bit surly today …
sdhays
@Barbara: I don’t believe they’ve actually done the math on the actual cost of maintaining a massive fleet of magic self-driving cars (and, truly, how could you since they’re magic and don’t exist yet, or perhaps ever?). Their current business models is all about avoiding those costs.
I’m still stunned that Uber, which loses billions every year, thought that they could jump into the self-driving car business where money-printing Google was struggling.
JPL
Bahamians will not be allowed temporary status. They will be granted a VISA if they can find their passport.
rikyrah
??????
?: ICE failed to properly redact a document, revealing the location of a future “urban warfare” training facility expected to include “hyper-realistic” simulations of homes in Chicago & Arizona, from “toys in the yard” to “dishes left on the table” t.co/gHf0K0Q5Gm
— Chantal Da Silva (@chantaladasilva) September 11, 2019
rikyrah
@JPL:
DEMONS
PHUCKING RACIST DEMONS
trollhattan
@JPL:
Said passports have probably all blown to…where…Venezuela by now?
New emergency message: “Storm coming, take cover, bring water and food, fetch your passports.”
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Kent: Take any random asshole, well he looks better than Trump. It’s a true talent that Trump has.
trollhattan
@rikyrah:
Is “hyper-realistic” better than real life itself?
“Hyper-Real Housewives of Phoenix” coming to Bravo this fall.
rikyrah
Hope that he has successful treatment.
I’ll always know him from All My Children.
The Hallmark Channel’s Cameron Mathison reveals he has cancer:
Home & Family host asks for thoughts and prayers after telling fans he was having surgery, in emotional TV statement
Cameron Mathison, 50, announced he has kidney cancer and will have surgery
Mathison said that thankfully the cancer hasn’t spread to any other organs
Said doctors think his healthy lifestyle has prevented the cancer from spreading
Surgeons plan to cut out the tumor at 1pm PT Thursday, Mathison revealed
By ADAM S. LEVY FOR DAILYMAIL.COM
PUBLISHED: 22:38 EDT, 10 September 2019 | UPDATED: 11:18 EDT, 11 September 2019
Mandalay
@DougJ
Well you think two people, and I think about forty million racist scumbags.
Close enough.
dimmsdale
@Chris: Thanks–would appreciate it if you hear of any funny stuff, to please post it. I am somewhat consumed (possibly unrealistically so) that the next election is going to be a nightmare of jimmied, perverted, hijacked, hacked and disputed results, thanks to the Republicans and the Russians. I’m always happy to hear of elections that seem to be cleanly conducted!
catclub
@trollhattan:
hyper sized implants?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@catclub: Yes.
trollhattan
@catclub:
One is reminded of “Weird Science.”
trollhattan
Shots returned. That didn’t take long.
Dude, maybe the problem IS your bidnez model.
JPL
@trollhattan: Just following trump’s and boris Johnson lead. The law no longer matters.
Kent
@trollhattan: If Uber drivers were truly independent contractors then they would be able to charge their own prices for rides. That is actually one of the tests of independent contracting. That you can negotiate/set your own rates. I do some independent contracting in educational curriculum development and I set my own rates. Let uber treat its drivers as actual INDEPENDENT contractors and see how well that works for them. Heh.
Topclimber
@Adam L Silverman: Hey not coming on here but I would gaze at your navel gladly . Beats gazing at the aholes of way too many folk.
Martin
@sdhays:
If they figure it out, they’re at the lead of a $2T industry. This is what VC funds do – spread money around hundreds of hail mary tech plays knowing that maybe 5% pay off, but when they do pay off, they more than cover the losses from the 95% that fail.
Topclimber
My God all those folks who fault me for tardiness are right but if you run up the popular vote you are likely to win the electoral one. By all means focus on swing states but in the FB era do not downplay the tendency of a national wave to influence that oh so dumbass electoral group that wants to vote for the winner.
joel hanes
@Martin:
My guess is he and his family is on a plane to a non extradition country on 1/20.
I’d bet on the first week of January, myself.
Doug R
@Barbara:
Self driving cars will be here when they stop running at FULL SPEED into things DIRECTLY IN FRONT of them.
rikyrah
@JPL:
Christopher Donato (@chrisdonato04) Tweeted:
New: authorities in the Bahamas announced there are 2,500 people registered as missing on the government list #Dorian twitter.com/chrisdonato04/status/1171806317348118529?s=17
JPL
@rikyrah: I saw that. Did you see the story about the 12 year girl removed from her family and placed in a migrant center. miamiherald.com/news/local/immigration/article234933792.html There is no punishment that will be severe enough for him.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Doug R: I’m sure just a tweak to the software will fix that right up. Minor issue.
JPL
Today really sucks
Supreme Court says Trump administration can begin denying migrants asylum at southern border while legal fight continues
Doug R
@Kent:
As someone who’s driven a few miles myself, I am well aware that about half the cost of driving employees goes to the vehicles. When Uber doesn’t need drivers anymore, their maintenance costs will be close to what they are paying their drivers now-development costs and liability for the inevitable deaths from their negligence should cost even more.
Brachiator
@sdhays:
Not just Uber, but futurists have tried to work out a future with self-driving cars. Lots of people really want to see this, since it could give you mass transit, but with individual vehicles offering point to point transportation. But all kinds of logistical issues. Car ownership might decline precipitously, but car demand might rocket. Imagine a household where Mom 1 and Mom 2 each order separate cars to take them to work, and where each of their 4 kids also order cars to take them to school and to after school destinations. The number of vehicles available starts to grow dramatically.
Then you have the issue of zombie fleets circling the streets until called into service or parked … somewhere in massive stacks.
Not sure how you prevent car thefts or vehicles diverted for use by homeless people and others. If I were a teen and had access to these vehicles, or a sex worker, well, love machine on wheels. Presumably one could order a vehicle with lots of room to stretch out.
Oh, brave new world!
trollhattan
We have Gig Car Share and it’s pretty slick. IDK if it makes money, loses money or we’re simply a cautious first-test, but there is no hired driver and it’s not autonomous, just an off-the-shelf Bolt.
Uber has also blanketed us with Jump bikes and scooters. Supposedly they earn more here than Uber rides, but that’s probably different in January. They do show up in some very odd places.
Raven
@trollhattan: Did you get those book references?
Baud
Like the predictability of new BJ blog posts.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: I didn’t recognize the lyric and had to google. I was… surprised, but I can’t judge cause yesterday I had such an ear-worm of the Different Strokes theme that I caught myself singing it out loud.
also, it really made me wish those youtube or comedy central or whichever bastards hadn’t taken down Cloris Leachman’s roast of Bob Saget
Jay
As long as Billionaires and their bought and paid for Politicians refuse to pay to have the potholes fixed, you are not going to have self driving cars.
The Uber model is to gaslight the future for Senior Management fortunes now.
The Juiceria guys made out like bandits.
Raven
@Baud: I could write a long post about something I care about. That usually triggers a new post.
Steeplejack
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
“It’s an implementation detail.” I used to hear that a lot.
Elizabelle
@Baud: We haz been abandoned.
Jay
Mary G
@JPL: Denying Merrick Garland really has paid off for Moscow Mitch. Every terrible decision like this that comes renews my fury at Bernie Bos., Susan Sarandon, third party voters, people who didn’t vote, James Comey and the FTFNYT.
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Now I have The Facts of Life ear worm.
Mary G
Baud
@Jay:
Any relation to us?
Baud
@Raven:
How about something about the importance of football.
Baud
@Elizabelle:
Frankly, I can’t blame them.
trollhattan
@Raven:
I did, thanks for those!
Bonnie
You can predict that trump will make an ass of himself from morning to night.
rikyrah
@Mary G:
???
Jay
@Baud:
bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-04-19/silicon-valley-s-400-juicer-may-be-feeling-the-squeeze
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juicero
Elizabelle
@Baud: I can. I’m keeping a list.
Procopius
OK, exactly what do you mean by “refuse to leave office.” Please describe the scenario, how it would work. On January 5, 2021, the Vice President of the United States, presiding over the Senate (newly sworn in), opens the electoral college votes from the states and reads out the results. At the end he announces the total and then names the new President and Vice President who will take office on 20 January. So what’s he gonna do about those states where the margin was less than 2%? Set them aside and refuse to include them in the total? Can he do that? And on January 20, is trump going to call out the 3d Infantry from Fort Meyer to protect the White House and prevent the swearing in of the new President and Vice President? I mean, if you’re gonna say he “refuses to leave office,” I want you to tell me how that’s gonna work. Sure, the Republican Party is going to demand recounts in all the states where the Democrat winning margin is less than 2% (or 10%, or whatever), but there are dates hard-wired into law for electoral college votes to be taken, counted, and certified by the states, so recounts are time-limited. That was one reason the Supremes used in their soft coup in 2000. Please, in a future post tell us exactly how you think “refuses to leave office” is going to happen. I’m not saying it’s impossible, I just can’t imagine how.
Procopius
@The Dangerman:
Yes.
Procopius
@Kent:
Oddly enough, that makes me more sympathetic to Kim Jong Un. “Anybody who hates kids and
dogsJohn Bolton can’t be all bad.” W.C. Fields paraphrased.Another Scott
Dead thread, but the election last night wasn’t the worst thing that happened in North Carolina
last nightin the last 24 hours.Wonkette:
The GOP is a cult. They will try anything – a – n – y – t – h – i – n – g – if they think it will allow them to keep or extend their power.
We have to vote them out. It’s the only way forward.
“Diversity is our strength. Unity is our power.” – N.P.
Cheers,
Scott.
Matt McIrvin
@david: Indeed, in all of history Democrats have never won an election.
sdhays
@Brachiator: There’s a lot of “underpants gnomes” talk when it comes to self-driving cars. But Uber was just so obviously absurd – they were going to start far behind others, do the same thing, and “win” all while bleeding billions on their bubble “master plan”. And the reason that they were doing it was a transparent attempt to distract from the fact that their “master plan” would never actually generate the revenue they claimed it would.