Important piece that may end up applying to several states. Lot of down sides to the early states, but if it does moves the needle against Trump it’s a big help that the first three states are competitive. https://t.co/Rs8EbpA3HD
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) January 13, 2020
A year of hearing from the Democratic candidates who wish to replace Donald Trump in the White House has had an impact on Iowa voters, it seems. The recent Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll shows only 34% of registered Iowa voters would definitely vote to reelect Trump.
Another 44% is definitely set to vote for someone else, while 12% would consider a candidate other than Trump and 8% weren’t sure either way…
While the Register didn’t run head-to-head general election matchups among likely voters with Trump and a Democrat, the overall numbers here have to be concerning for Trump’s reelection prospects. The results also point to Iowa returning to its purple-state status after Trump’s nine-point victory here in 2016.
The movement would make sense given the barrage of TV ads run by Democrats in Iowa lambasting the President.
Although the Democratic candidates are aiming their message to caucus-goers in their own party, voters of all backgrounds are seeing the TV spots and even many of the online ads. As you can see in Starting Line’s latest caucus TV ad round-up, some candidates’ messaging has been focused mostly just on their own qualifications and policies, but many have taken direct aim at Trump…
Elizabeth Warren is the candidate best-positioned to unite and inspire the broadest coalition to beat Trump. And there’s no candidate working harder to do it.
??: @DMRegister pic.twitter.com/o09AENx710
— Sawyer Hackett (@SawyerHackett) January 12, 2020
And there’s this endorsement from Will Bunch, at the Philadelphia Inquirer:
… My perceptions about what’s wrong with America and how to fix it are different than they were in 2016. I’ve had four years to absorb what Trump’s presidency says about us as a nation — and who has resisted Trump, and why. I’m still committed to the exact same political revolution. But I believe the candidate who will get us there is Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.
I plan to vote for Warren on April 28 for two reasons. One is simple, the other a bit more abstract. For starters, the two-term Massachusetts senator has run the best campaign, pure and simple. Her accidental rallying cry was handed to her by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who blocked Warren’s principled stand against the nomination of unqualified Attorney General Jeff Sessions on the Senate floor and added, “Nevertheless, she persisted.”
Since announcing her candidacy last year, persistence has been the hallmark of Warren’s campaign. She’s stuck to her plan and remained true to herself even as the Beltway crowd wrote her off again and again, and in doing so she’s remained a top contender in spite of those naysayers. Her decision to shun big donors for small contributions and play up personal voter contact — yes, including the now infamous “selfie line” — was ridiculed even as her money and support grew. Rather than ignore her biggest stumble — the Native American heritage missteps — she’s owned it through unprecedented outreach to indigenous voters…Warren’s diagnosis of what ails the United States — massive political corruption and a rigged economic playing field against the middle and more struggling classes — is right on the money, pun intended. It’s why she was the first Democratic candidate to see the need for impeaching Trump, and why she’s had a forceful reaction to the president’s reckless actions toward Iran. But it’s also why her detailed plans — for a wealth tax on America’s kleptocracy to help fund universal health care and higher education and eliminate crippling college debt — are her centerpiece and biggest selling point…
In addition, while acknowledging there are some ways in which Sanders expands the electorate, I think a Warren nomination would ensure the most passion from the activists — primarily women — who led the Women’s March and the airport resistance to Trump’s travel ban in 2017 and knocked on millions of doors to get us a Democratic House in 2018. Although Warren isn’t yet winning among young voters or nonwhites, I believe she has a potential for growth that simply is not there for youth with Joe Biden or for both groups with Pete Buttigieg. Her stance as an ultraliberal, reform-minded capitalist is arguably a better place to be in November 2020 than Bernie’s lifetime socialism…
In 2020, electing the best and most qualified candidate would also mean electing the first woman president in American history — 100 years after women’s suffrage and, morally, ridiculously overdue. What a powerful statement! Instead of cowering in fear, Democrats should be counting their blessings in having two revolutionary candidates for president, and a dozen others who’d be 100 times better than the current occupant. But among that strong field, it’s Warren — and what she stands for — that offers the fierce urgency of now. Simply put, voting for her on April 28 is the change I want to see in the world.
columbusqueen
YES!!!!!
Betty Cracker
Tomorrow’s debate is going to be fascinating — it’s make or break time. It’s a joint CNN-Des Moines Register gig. Just read that Wolf Blitzer and Abby Phillip are moderating from CNN. Blitzer is a known (meh) quantity, but has Phillip moderated a debate before? Can’t remember. I have positive impressions of her reporting for CNN but have formed no solid opinion.
JPL
Good Morning!
Betty Cracker
Other things on the political junkie radar this week: the House now has Lev Parnas’s iPhone. At the very least, I hope it contains enough info to expose Devin Nunes as the corrupt fraud he is.
Perensejo
I love my senator muchly. I believe she would make a great president. (Especially if she picks Kamala as a running mate).
But what do y’all think about losing a Democratic Senate seat in 2020? Charlie Baker (R) would get to appoint her replacement.
rikyrah
Good Morning, Everyone ? ??
Baud
@rikyrah:
Good morning.
Baud
Where is Billin? Glendale history made Reddit’s front page.
montanareddog
@Perensejo: In Iran, an authoritarian government egregiously lies to the people about the shooting down of the Ukrainian airliner, and the people are out protesting about it.
In the US, an (allegedly-)democratic government lies to the people all the time and the people seem to be too apathetic to do anything. The behaviour of Trump in blocking witnesses and evidence in the House impeachment hearings, and McConnell in rigging the Senate trial, should have Americans on the streets.
A long lead up to a response to your comment: Elizabeth Warren was re-elected in 2018 60-36%. If she were to be elected President, and the MA Governor appoints a Republican to replace her in the Senate, it is another data point on the entropy of American democracy, IMO
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
In other news:
Bernie is who we thought he was.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: I’ve been working here, went to shoot star trails at Leo Carrillo.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: That train wreck they’re talking about happened right by the Costco I shop at.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@montanareddog: there were a ton of people in the streets (photo album)
Anne Laurie
@Perensejo: This has been exhaustively discussed for some months. Sure, Chickenshit Charlie Baker could appoint a Repub to replace Warren… and I could win the Powerball drawing. But I didn’t buy a ticket, and Baker intends to stay on the right side of our extremely Democratic legislature, because Charlie knows on which side his corner-office bread is buttered.
Especially since, if Warren is elected President, it will indicate one of those ‘wave elections’ where being on good terms with Democratic legislators will be even more important to Baker’s future political ambitions. He is not a man who’ll stand up for a ‘principle’ that doesn’t provide him an immediate benefit, and publicly disrespecting a new Democratic President would not interest him.
(My personal bet, at the moment, would be that he’d appoint either Seth Moulton or Joe Kennedy III to the seat, depending on which one offers him the better deal.)
Perensejo
@Anne Laurie: Thanks for answering with a link to reputable opinion, Anne.
Betty Cracker
@Anne Laurie: Isn’t Joe Kennedy making a play for Markey’s seat or did that fizzle?
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@Anne Laurie: This is much to do about nothing. When a vacancy is created a special election must be held 145 days later.
So if Warren was elected, she could resign the next day, creating a vacancy which would force a special election at the end of March.
Very little time would be lost between the time she would be sworn in and the time an election would occur (approx 70 days).
Anne Laurie
@Betty Cracker: Yup, Joe’s going for Markey’s seat right now. But it’s nothing personal, he’d be just as happy to take Warren’s vacated seat. And I don’t think Ed Markey would hold it against him… much.
Betty Cracker
@Anne Laurie: Do you think Kennedy has a shot at dislodging Markey? I remember being mildly annoyed at Kennedy when I first read about the potential challenge. You kinda hate to see Dems spending a ton of money on races that won’t deliver much of a net benefit to constituents. But on the other hand, senators (reps too!) tend to stay in office until they’re a thousand years old, so I don’t blame Kennedy getting impatient.
OzarkHillbilly
The horror….
Sounds reasonable to me.
Ya think?
Anne Laurie
I wouldn’t bet on it, especially if our presidential candidate is one who’ll encourage every last Dem to show up on Election Day. However, while I’d be sad to lose Markey (who was my rep before he was my Senator), it’s not as though JKIII is liable to vote much differently than Ed would!
Worst that could happen, IMO, is that the lifers in the legislature might resent the new kid for jumping the queue. But young Joe *is* “the last Kennedy”, so it’s just as likely the hardshell sentimentalists would cut him extra slack. (insert shrug emoji here)
Patricia Kayden
But but but Hunter Biden.
JPL
@OzarkHillbilly: That is just sick and is another reason why we need to take back our country. Vote DEM.
daveNYC
The idea that Warren could be a unity candidate seems to rely on the idea that Biden’s support is coming from people who like him because he’s Biden, and not because of his policies or the fact he’s promising a return to the ‘before time’ when Republicans and Democrats were all lovey-dovey and the Senate wasn’t such an obvious shitshow of obstruction by the minority. I don’t think that’s the case, and one way or another either the moderates or the progressives are going to be very unhappy with whoever ends up going into the general.
JPL
@daveNYC: Some of Warren’s policies are to far left for me, but I certainly won’t be unhappy if she’s the nominee. This year I think democrats are motivated no matter who the nominee is.
debbie
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
I’m hoping he’ll be called out during the debate on his statements about Warren and about the Democratic Party.
OzarkHillbilly
Whhhaaaat? You mean they lied to me? That this decision really is best left up to the woman involved? I am shocked, shocked I tell you.
Chyron HR
@daveNYC:
If the “moderates” support Biden because he promises to make Senate Republicans stop being obstructionist assholes, I think they’re going to be unhappy no matter what happens.
debbie
@OzarkHillbilly:
This should be required signage on the front of every Planned Parenthood office. The protesters’ heads would explode.
Baud
@JPL:
Most far reaching lefty ideas require Congress, so less risk there with Warren, who won’t tear down the party if she doesn’t get everything she wants.
Baud
@montanareddog:
People in Iran can’t vote out their religious leaders.
OzarkHillbilly
Betty Cracker
@daveNYC: I think the unity argument is that Warren is 1) a Democrat, 2) not as far left as Sanders, and 3) acceptable to most Democrats, at least according to the polls cited. She’s also a woman, which means something to millions of women who still feel like they got robbed in 2016 and are chafing under the misrule of the stone-cold misogynist in the White House.
IMO, it’s not an ironclad argument, but it’s not crazy talk either. Nominating Sanders is going to be a problem for a lot of Democrats; no explanation needed around here. Nominating Biden brings its own set of problems.
You could say that about any of the candidates, I guess, but arguably Warren is sort of a compromise candidate as far as the party’s ideological poles go.
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud: Apparently it’s not so easy for us to either.
Baud
@OzarkHillbilly:
Well, not with the voters we have.
rikyrah
Will one of the Front Pagers post about this?
Immanentize
@Anne Laurie: I don’t think Kennedy will beat Markey (who was also my rep, neighbor!) but he might. I think Joe was making a bet that if Warren won, he would certainly be the presumptive favorite for her seat when it opened. We’ll see….
montanareddog
@Baud: And neither will the American people be able to vote freely if the Republicans get no serious pushback for rigging elections by
Baud
@montanareddog:
We have a lot of issues but it’s nothing like what people in Iran are facing.
Immanentize
@Betty Cracker: I said this yesterday at some point. Sanders has a floor and he has a ceiling. The difference between the two seems to be about 5-7 points. He will stay in this race only until others start to drop off because he is already pushing his limit. I really, as you hint, don’t see very many Hillary voters choosing Sanders over, say, Biden. Or Warren. He has deep structural problems in the primary because of his past behaviors. Which he seems like he is inclined to repeat. Sanders attacking Warren will not make me vote for Sanders.
Baud
@Immanentize:
The only thing that would make me vote for Sanders is if Trump orders the assassination of the other candidates.
Dorothy A. Winsor
I had a nice experience yesterday. A friend here invited me and three other women for wine and cheese. We sat around having a normal conversation about vacations and Jeopardy and pressures on kids-these-days. It felt like forever since I’d done that. I had trouble joining in at first. It felt like I’d forgotten how to talk about anything except politics and writing.
ETA: Also, a “violent” sword fight in a Wal Mart in Texas.
Immanentize
@Dorothy A. Winsor: That sounds like a vacation! Didn’t your cruise give you some moments like that?
ETA. Asking because I am hoping….
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Immanentize:
There is some nice chatting, but the people are strangers and you’re unlikely ever to see them again.
When are you going? Spring?
Immanentize
@Dorothy A. Winsor: March 12, I think. I need a break. I mentioned to the Immp, as you said, that there will be a lot of Olds on the cruise. He said he didn’t mind as long as he didn’t have to speak to anyone. I told him some will take care of that end, “Young man! Come help with this bag!”. Then I realized I could just live out a Poirot fantasy trip and explain to everyone that my son was “convalescing.”. I’m excited!
raven
@Immanentize: Did you watch “The Romanoffs”?
Immanentize
@raven: No I haven’t. Should I? I’m looking for something to watch after dinner these days.
joel hanes
@Betty Cracker:
Blitzer is a known (meh) quantity
This is far too kind to Mr. Blitzer, who has been weakly pretending to be a journalist since 1990.
He’s faking it
Not really making it
Kay
Grandbaby is a girl – she took forever to get here but she is as calm as her mother so takes her time :)
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Immanentize: You can do all the talking for both of you. LOL. I’m sure Immp will love that.
That’s coming up soon. Here’s my one travel hack: Throughout the year, I save the clothes I’d wear one more time and then throw away–the socks with a little hole in the heel, the shorts with the raggedy hem. Then I pack them for the trip and throw them away as we go.
Immanentize
@Kay: WOOT! Happy Grandmothering days, Kay.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Kay:
Congratulations, Grandma! Much joy now and for years to come.
satby
@Baud: right there with you, and still wobbly on whether I could.
Elizabelle
@Kay: Congratulations! Wonderful news.
Immanentize
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Ooo. That’s a great idea.
Immanentize
@Dorothy A. Winsor: The Immp used to hate when I would chat up strangers. But then he figured out I was learning helpful stuff doing so. Now, he is resigned and slightly amused when I do that.
Immanentize
@satby: Me three, obvs.
raven
@Immanentize: We liked it. It’s about all these people who think they are descendants and the one on the cruise ship full of those folks is hilarious.
raven
@Immanentize: My SIL says “you can have a conversation with ANYBODY”!
Baud
@Kay: Congrats, granny!
Nicole
@Kay: Congratulations! Wonderful news.
Kay
@Immanentize:
Yeah, she’s lovely. I’m much more jittery than my daughter is so now we have a (total) of two serene people in this family. Unflappable. I was having a nervous breakdown because it took so long but the two patients were fine.
Nicole
@Immanentize: Where is the cruise to? (Apologies if you already said it somewhere in the thread above and I missed it)
Kay
@Baud:
She’s long so my husband said “tall. this one is getting tennis camp”
Desperate for a tennis player :)
JPL
@Kay: hugs My little grandson will be one next month. They change so quickly so enjoy your role.
Immanentize
@Kay: Can you share the name of the new individual?
Immanentize
@Nicole: To Venice. But then, I guess you need to also know where it’s from??. San Juan. I guess the line (Viking) has to get its ships back to the Med. from the Caribbean and S. America for the summer rush. So, we get that ride too.
OzarkHillbilly
@Kay: Congrats to the happy grandma.
eta Oh yeah, congrats to Mama and Papa too.
Immanentize
@raven: It is a skill. But people are so damn interesting.
daveNYC
@Betty Cracker: I think point 2 is the sticky bit. Sanders’ policies are to the left of Warren’s, but I’m not sure that “The rates on Warren’s wealth tax are less than those of Sanders’s.” is going to be a compelling argument to a number of moderate type voters. The gap between what Warren and Biden are proposing is gargantuan.
Booker or Klobuchar would be much more of a viable compromise between the left and center, but they can’t seem to break 5%, so baring something crazy in the early states they’re non-starters.
Immanentize
Gotta go and get my second shingrix shot. Later Gators (and Dawgs. Etc.)!
Melusine
Thank you for this, Anne!
Baud
@Kay:
Name here Serena. Good mojo.
Citizen Alan
@joel hanes: It’s amazing to think that Wolf blitzer has built a 30 year career as a “reliable and respected journalist” entirely out of that brief month long period when he managed to give live reports out of Baghdad while bombs were falling around him without pissing himself.
Nelle
@Kay: Congratulations, Kay! As I may have mentioned, we moved to Des Moines in April to be near our two granddaughters, now 11 months and 2 1/2. We take care of them two days a week and it was the only way I could get my husband to retire. He’s 75.
He’s rather overqualified to work. At 70, he was recruited by a law firm in KC to be a scientific advisor to their environmental division, which brought us back to the US. When I met him, he was a bush pilot in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge on Alaska’s North Slope in summers and working on his PhD in the academic year. He was a Rickover boy out of the Naval Academy, did 3 years in Vietnam (got stop lossed), and ended up as a hydrogeologist. All of that us to say he has worked long and hard his whole life and fully intended to keep doing so until he dropped.
Until he held his granddaughter. And then the next one. He’s a very quiet, serious guy. He’s smiled more in the last nine months than in decades.
SiubhanDuinne
@Kay:
Great news! Congratulations! When will you meet her?
germy
OzarkHillbilly
@Nelle:
When my older sis was expecting her first, I told her grandchildren are better than children. About a year later she told me I was right.
Betty Cracker
@Kay: That’s wonderful news — congrats!
Nicole
@Immanentize: That sounds lovely! What a grand getaway for both of you.
joel hanes
@Citizen Alan:
To be scrupulously fair, Blitzer’s other qualification for the job he pretends to perform is that he has “executive-style” hair.
O. Felix Culpa
@Kay: Congratulations! So happy for you and baby-parents.
chopper
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
if one of them yelled out ‘there can be only one!’ i’ma lose it.
O. Felix Culpa
@montanareddog:
It depends on how you define “doing anything.” Lots of people are organizing, registering voters, campaigning for their preferred primary candidate(s), and preparing to Get Out The Vote in large numbers. That counts as significant work in my book, and ultimately more effective in our democratic system (tenuous though it may be) than demonstrations.
We haven’t forgotten the supplemental value of demonstrations either. The Women’s March is this weekend.
Zzyzx
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: but in that time, it could make McConnell majority leader again and he could set up rules making it hard to replace him.
Kattails
@Kay: Wonderful news, congratulations all around.
Zzyzx
@Anne Laurie: when people are making a case against Biden that he is trusting Republicans, it seems odd to make the pro-Warren argument that THIS Republican is fine. That article you posted in your support specifically said that they expected a Republican to be posted as a replacement, but that it would potentially be a moderate one. It’s not a deal breaker per se (since I don’t think we’re flipping the Senate) but it’s not to be ignored either.
Also claiming that Warren only wins in a wave election both contradicts that she’s the most electable candidate and also sounds too much like Sanders’ “there will be a magic revolution if I win and that’s how everything gets passed“ argument for my tastes
Josie
@Kay:
Congratulations, Kay. I raised three boys, so my two granddaughters are a constant delight and a blessing. You will enjoy her so much.
Josie
@Nelle:
Agree about the grands. Also, I need to answer your question about the cough. The thread was long dead by the time I saw it. Mine lasted about six weeks. I thought it would never end, but it finally did. I have my stamina back and restarted my exercise program with no ill effects. Hang in there and take care of yourself.
Shalimar
@JPL: On the bright side, Warren is never going to get enough votes to pass any of the policies that are too far to the left of you, so it’s not like you’re going to be unhappy with the results.
Butter Emails
@Zzyzx:
Erm. You’re missing the point regarding Massachusetts. If Warren wins the nomination, she can submit her resignation letter to the Governor kicking off the 145 to 160 day period to hold a special election, but delay her actual resignation. That ultimately means you would end up with a Republican appointed Senator for as little as 45 days. There’s strong Democratic contenders looking for a Senate seat but no Republicans outside of Baker himself that pose much of a challenge. That means a Scott Brown situation is extremely unlikely as Baker is probably eyeing a post Trump presidential run, not a spot in the US Senate.
satby
@Kay: congratulations! All the best to your daughter too!
Zzyzx
@Butter Emails: I get that. My point though is that during that period of time, the Senate elects a majority leader and the rules for the session. I can picture the Republicans using that window to create rules that would hamper a Democratic majority from doing anything. Only tradition is stopping them, and recent events in states where they’ve lost show that they prioritize power
Eolirin
@Zzyzx: Democrats have amended those rules after session start before iirc. If they have a majority I’m pretty sure they can do whatever they want. Especially if it’s undoing bullshit McConnell tried to pull. But I really don’t think us getting to exactly 50 seats is the most likely outcome. And it doesn’t matter outside of that.
rikyrah
@Kay:
Congratulations, Kay!!!
Go Grandma and Granddaughter !! :)
rikyrah
@Immanentize:
You and Little Imma going on a cruise…yeah :)