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You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 Coronavirus / COVID-19 Coronavirus Update – Saturday / Sunday

COVID-19 Coronavirus Update – Saturday / Sunday

by Anne Laurie|  February 16, 20204:56 am| 11 Comments

This post is in: COVID-19 Coronavirus, Foreign Affairs, Healthcare

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#COVID19: China's Feb. 15 numbers are out.
2009 new cases, 142 new deaths.
They bring China's numbers to 68,500 confirmed cases & 1665 deaths.
There have been 3 deaths reported outside China (France, Japan, the Philippines) & over 500 additional cases in ~26 countries. pic.twitter.com/zl48Q3ws97

— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) February 16, 2020

Good day for getting all panicky, but only ‘theoretically’…

things are bad but remember that R0 is not a magic constant, it's a contextual number. some of the early rapid spread may be because of the extremely bad timing of the Lunar New Year https://t.co/raJdAXKMo4

— James Palmer (@BeijingPalmer) February 15, 2020

A top infectious-disease scientist warns that two-thirds of the world’s population could get infected with the coronavirus https://t.co/o3MbMmO6WU

— Bloomberg (@business) February 16, 2020

New information. >8000 close contacts of reported cases tested for #COVIDー19. Most interesting/concerning/comforting result is 34% of close contacts were + for COVID. This is very large fraction of contacts infected- suggests much wider spread. But 1/n.https://t.co/XYSzL4Yo1h

— Michael Mina (@michaelmina_lab) February 15, 2020

This is a great point. The impact of this will be non linear, meaning that the more cases, the harder it gets to handle (as seen already). This may indicate an important role for slowing its spread, even if it cannot be prevented entirely https://t.co/yYC3pmt8xd

— Bill Hanage (@BillHanage) February 15, 2020

This is very much worth listening to.

Especially: starting at time 7:00, a 5-minute overview of the Chinese health system that will ring true to those who have dealt with it, and will be a complete surprise to most listeners in the US/Europe. https://t.co/MbIjss4js4 https://t.co/QXcNGTF0Vq

— James Fallows (@JamesFallows) February 15, 2020

As #coronavirus spreads, so is misinformation about the disease.

Don't risk your family's health with online rumours. Turn to reliable sources like @WHO to truly #KnowTheFacts.https://t.co/a7yMRJ1wlv

— UNICEF (@UNICEF) February 16, 2020


I met with Yi Wang, Foreign Minister of #China, at #MSC2020. He updated me on the #COVID19 response & expressed ??’s commitment to do its best to protect its people and the world. We agreed that global solidarity is key to ending the outbreak. pic.twitter.com/7F2EyeZiI7

— Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (@DrTedros) February 15, 2020

To stop the spread of the coronavirus much of China has effectively shut down. What’s not been fully appreciated is how extensive the closures are. By our calculations 760 million are living under some kind of residential lockdown. https://t.co/ZuO31QVi6g

— Paul Mozur ??? (@paulmozur) February 15, 2020

Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for tighter policing to protect social stability, while Beijing ordered people returning to the capital to self-quarantine for 14 days in the latest measure aimed at containing the virus https://t.co/6NYpEVWur2 pic.twitter.com/fmG1MuT5lN

— AFP news agency (@AFP) February 15, 2020

Foreign Policy is a reputable publication, but keep in mind Laurie Garrett is a bit of a professional alarmist:

https://t.co/27KPHi8SLu https://t.co/um3f2rea6M

— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) February 15, 2020

this is the straight up Lysenko-esque 'ideology over science' story of this outbreak. TCM is bullshit. https://t.co/ivkEYl8cSu https://t.co/cWmtJSzX1h

— James Palmer (@BeijingPalmer) February 15, 2020

I almost always regret opening this website. pic.twitter.com/bU56OuuQ0g

— Noah Smith ? (@Noahpinion) February 14, 2020


(That’s from an Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University, ergo more ‘respectable’ than some rando with a website… )

Meanwhile, the Clinton family refuses to stop interfering with America’s right to be self-destructive — how dare they!

Vaccinate your kids. Wash your hands (even at home). Don’t listen to Jim Bakker for health advice. https://t.co/rJYqDXOlo8

— Chelsea Clinton (@ChelseaClinton) February 14, 2020

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Reader Interactions

11Comments

  1. 1.

    Rob

    February 16, 2020 at 7:54 am

    Thank you for these daily (nightly) posts, Anne Laurie. They help me keep up with the situation.

     

    I listened to the podcast mentioned in James Fallows’ tweet, for the 5 minutes starting at about 7:00. The outline of China’s current health-care system is quite disturbing.

  2. 2.

    Geminid

    February 16, 2020 at 7:57 am

    Thank you for the post.

  3. 3.

    evodevo

    February 16, 2020 at 7:58 am

    I don’t understand why Jim Bakker is still running around loose.  If God existed, he should have died a painful death from one disease or another years ago.  His wife, though “eccentric” in the extreme, seemed to be a better person in many ways, and she was the one who died…not fair.

  4. 4.

    Another Scott

    February 16, 2020 at 8:24 am

    ‘morning.  Thanks for the update.

    Always remember that GMU got a bunch of money from the Kochs for endowed chairs and the like and should be suspected of having a fringe “libertarian” slant unless demonstrated otherwise as a result.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  5. 5.

    Matt McIrvin

    February 16, 2020 at 8:37 am

    @Another Scott: Robin Hanson is a fount of shocking “libertarian” hot takes.

    I saw people defending his suggestion as something to do if it got so bad that there was danger of mass panic. I know that when I think of ways to prevent mass panic in the event of a terrifying plague, having government agents go around deliberately infecting people with the disease is the first thing that comes to mind. (Damn, people won’t even get *vaccines*.)

  6. 6.

    RSA

    February 16, 2020 at 9:13 am

    @Another Scott: Hanson should take a vote among his GMU economics colleagues to become infected first, setting an example for the rest of us.

  7. 7.

    debbie

    February 16, 2020 at 9:21 am

    Fuck Jim Bakker and the lot of them. As Albert Camus wrote in The Plague,

    Stupidity has a knack of getting its way; as we should see if we were not always so much wrapped up in ourselves.

    These fakirs are the jewels of Capitalism. Not. ?

  8. 8.

    bystander

    February 16, 2020 at 9:46 am

    I like Hanson’s proposal but only if I get to pick the infectees.

  9. 9.

    YY_Sima Qian

    February 16, 2020 at 10:20 am

    A few notes on Chinese medical system:

    1. Most of what James Palmer described of Chinese medical system is true, but also incomplete. It is absolutely true that medical care in China are hospital-centric, and that the best resources are concentrated in the top hospitals in each locality. It is also true that the hospital experience can be very stressing for those unused to it, involving a series of lines and fees and very quick consultation with the doctor. The doctors and nurses are only moderately compensated and overworked. The entire experience is impersonal and industrialized. The proliferation of mobile computing and payment in the last few years has made the experience much less cumbersome, with appointments and payments all happening on the phone (and copies of diagnosis, prescriptions, images of CT/X-ray/ultrasound, etc.), though a foreigner without Chinese ID would not be able to utilize it. However, I would say for the vast majority of people, it suffices in meeting most needs. The fees for doctor’s visits and medicine (especially those made by Chinese manufacturers) are quite cheap. I went with my wife to one of the main hospitals Wuhan several times for pre-natal check ups, and then went to private clinics (catering to expats) in Shenzhen several times for my then newborn daughter’s health check up. The experience at the latter was much more pleasant and personalized, but the out of pocket expense was an order of magnitude higher than at the public hospital, and that’s with my employer’s international insurance picking up 80% of the tab!
    2. It is in-patient care, especially surgeries, where it can be very expensive in China, and more so than in the US. The public health insurance only pays 50%. However, for public sector employees and retirees (government, state owned enterprises, public education/medicine, etc.), insurance can cover 90% of the costs. Those working for major corporations can also get pretty decent insurance.
    3. Chinese medical system is still a work in progress, being rebuilt after socialized medicine was deconstructed in the 80s and 90s. China is trying to introduce GPs as first line of interaction with patients, as well leverage the community clinics, but they are only a few years old, far from maturity. On the other hand, at current pace, frankly I am more confident that China will establish a more rational medical system, with better outcomes, in 10 years than the US will.
    4. Overall, I personal opinion is that Chinese medical system despite its deep flaws, is definitely no longer Third World (even in the smaller townships), and firmly middle income, with better access for most of the population than a lot of middle income countries
    5. James Palmer doesn’t seem to understand how TCM is generally practices today in China. I have cousins who work as nurse and doctor in TCM hospital, and they rely on a hybrid approach, incorporate a great deal of western medicine, treatments and methods. Philosophically, TCM takes a more holistic approach to treating the entire patient as a system, while western medicine had historically taken a more discrete and granular focus. Of course, TCM philosophy is metaphysical, which I do not put any stock in. I think the most useful approach to TCM is to think of it as a distillation of thousands of years of empirical experimentation, nothing more. In my experience, western medicine works quickly and more directly address the symptoms. but the right TCM course can effect more complete recovery, at least for the more common illness. Be extremely skeptical of any claims of TCM curing cancer. The Shuanglianhuang debacle was charlatans taking advantage of public health crisis to make a quick killing, and was quickly debunked by Chinese authorities. Admittedly, TCM offers more room for charlatans.

    I had to roll my eyes on Palmer’s comments that “even if 90% of people in China hated the CCP, how would each talk with the rest of the 90%?” As if people in China don’t talk to each other at home, at workplace, at parties, and on WeChat. The reason the CCP regime has survived the disasters that should have shaken and did shake the foundation of its rule, is that it does work to let off enough steam and to address the causes of popular discontent so that it does not get to the point of 60% dissatisfaction. It is an open secret that the CCP government at all levels frequently conduct polls to gauge popular sentiments on issues large and small. The social controls and repression is a significant part of it, but IMO not the most important part.

  10. 10.

    Betty Cracker

    February 16, 2020 at 10:24 am

    @YY_Sima Qian: Very interesting perspective. Thank you!

  11. 11.

    ziggy

    February 16, 2020 at 10:41 am

    @YY_Sima Qian: Thanks for the perspective YY. Is Wuhan still under quarantine? and how is everyone holding up?

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