We’ve raised close to ten thousand dollars today, mostly for Senate races. Thanks a lot to everyone. We started keeping track of fundraising in September 2016. There’s a good chance we’ll hit this amount by the time this cycle is over
Reader Interactions
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opiejeanne
That’s outstanding!
I love that clip of Dr Evil and his staff’s reactions.
PsiFighter37
Hope we get some new polling soon…has been quiet as of late. Wonder if most of the agencies are waiting until post-Labor Day to ramp back up.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@PsiFighter37:
Probably waiting to see how the numbers shake up post-convention
BlueGuitarist
Thank you, DougJ ! Great fundraising work, and consistently excellent music references: Natalie Merchant!
Contributions could also matter a lot in downballot races.
Frankensteinbeck
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Dunno. 538 put some stuff up in the middle of Trump’s convention, and he seemed to be getting no bounce at all – but it was before the last night. From looking at 538’s graphs, I agree with them. There have been no significant swings. People’s opinions are locked in. Trump is fucked.
mousebumples
If it weren’t for the Electoral College, I’d agree with you. I’m still working and acting as if we’re 10 points down. Not that I think Biden will lose the popular vote. However, there are too many states where things could be borderline, and I don’t want to give any question about the legitimacy of Biden’s victory.
Vote in numbers too big to manipulate.
Skepticat
This is an excellent article. Wish I’d seen it before I rage donated to McConnell’s and Graham’s opponents, though I don’t really regret that.
https://www.salon.com/2020/08/29/dont-waste-your-money-trying-to-beat-mitch-mcconnell-play-democracy-moneyball-instead/
RedDirtGirl
Yes, thank you DougJ. You have made it very easy. I so appreciate that. And so proud of us Jackals.
WaterGirl
@PsiFighter37: Or waiting for the conventions to finish, and then see if there are any actual bumps.
Or, what Goku said.
WaterGirl
@Skepticat: That’s exactly how the Rs won all those seats after Barack Obama got elected.
Steeplejack
* TV Alert! *
Dunno whether by design or serendipity, but TBS is showing Black Panther at 9:00 EDT tonight. There will be commercials, but it’s a good opportunity to take a look for the surprising (to me) number of BJers who have said they haven’t seen it (or any of Chadwick Boseman’s films).
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@mousebumples:
Absolutely, we shouldn’t be complacent. However, regarding the Electoral College, the Economist is predicting a Biden EC win with a 6 in 7 chance (86%). There’s still of course that 1 in 7 chance, but if we work like hell and turn out the vote, Trump is truly fucked
mousebumples
@Skepticat: I think we have a better shot of voting out Graham than McConnell. And i don’t want to limit our targets so much so that we don’t give ourselves enough leeway in case of voter suppression – or a natural disaster (e.g. the tornado that hit Tennessee during the spring primary) that impacts voter turnout.
We need to flip at least 3 seats (*including keeping Doug Jones’s seat) – but if we can flip more than that, that gives us more leeway for the more “centrist” Democratic Senators from redder states (e.g. Manchin, Jones, etc.). I agree with spending money wisely, and using the Moneyball approach to a point. But you lose 100% of the battles you don’t fight.
WaterGirl
@Steeplejack:
I read that and run to record that on Tivo. Here, Black Panther is not on TBS until NEXT Sunday, 9/6.
So this must vary be region or by something.
Wyatt Salamanca
Lowlife Mitch McConnell makes a new hire:
https://nypost.com/2020/08/28/mitch-mcconnells-campaign-hires-covington-teen-nick-sandmann/
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Frankensteinbeck:
I agree with you. I didn’t realize 538 was doing polling during the conventions. Sometimes I wonder if 538 just got lucky in 2016 and is being overly cautious
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Skepticat: I give to Harrison understanding he’s the longest of long-shots, in hope he can do for SC Dems what Beto did for TX Dems. And he’s 44 YO. A strong showing could be the start of something.
mousebumples
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I think we have a decent chance of winning, but we’re too far out to take the polls (or anything) for granted. I’d like to think that the American public (at large) doesn’t trust anything coming out of this administration, so far as an October Surprise goes, but I’m not letting up until we get safely past election day.
Similar to how I voted not-Trump in the GOP Primary in 2016 – it didn’t work, but I wanted to do what I could to try to keep him out of the White House. I need to do what I can, so that (god forbid) IF the menace wins re-election, I know I did what I could to prevent it.
mousebumples
If they “just got lucky” – they got lucky a number of times. In 2008, Nate Silver called the electoral college 100% correctly, if I remember right. I don’t know that he’s been _that_ on target since, but if you listen to their podcasts, they go into the math a bit more sometimes. (Model Talk!)
Right now, their primary point is that there’s a lot of time for things to move, and you need to take the margin of error into account. If I remember correctly, Mondale got a big bump out of the DNC in ’84, and was up by a large margin (10ish?) in the popular vote. That … did not turn out well for the Democrats in the end. There is historical precedent for a large polling margin going the other way from August to November in recent electoral history.
I would think that if Biden’s margin stays where it is (or, hopefully, expands!), the probability will change accordingly. The large amount of variability possible due to the weeks/months of time remaining (+ debates!) will decrease as we get closer and closer to election day.
ETA: 538 doesn’t do polling. They aggregate polls – similar to Real Clear Politics. I’m not 100% sure on how they work everything into their model, but I expect it has to do with the quality of pollster, the raw numbers, and how the poll results compare to other similar polls conducted at the same or shortly before/after.
frosty
Hope you’re right. I’m worried. Another Trump flag just went up on my street. So we’re up to 13 on my loop to the Post Office.
No Bidens, of course, although I’m starting to get pissed off enough to put one out and take the chance of a) getting it stolen or b) getting my car keyed.
JMG
There won’t probably be big national live caller polls until after Labor Day. The conventions were back to back, and next weekend is a holiday weekend, which demolishes response rates. I’m surprised people respond to poll calls at all. The Clinton campaign had a setup where you could phone bank for them. I did it for one day, and realized caller ID has killed that. I never answer calls from distant area codes where I don’t recognize the name. Why should I expect these names on a list would.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@frosty:
A hack columnist in 2012 talked about how screwed Obama was because she saw a lot of Romney yard signs in a neighborhood. Romney then went on to lose. Don’t sweat stuff like that. It doesn’t really mean anything. Wouldn’t surprise me if those people were always Trump supporters and just decided to put out a Trump flag because the others gave them permission to do so
mousebumples
@JMG: I’ve heard people are more responsive during this pandemic since we’re (mostly) cooped up at home. Or, at least, Democrats are more likely to be since we’re taking COVID seriously. That could be a difference from when Clinton was running 4 years ago, from what I’ve heard …
Mike J
West Wing said Atrios raised 300k online and has nearly as many readers as the Philadelphia Inquirer. Maybe DougJ can do a guest shot on the reunion show that’s coming up.
Kattails
@Skepticat: read and saved, thanks.
Baud
Michael Moore showed up on my news feed to tell us we’re doomed, so there’s that.
WaterGirl
@Baud: I would like to never hear from Michael Moore again.
WaterGirl
@Mike J: What does West Wing have to do with Atrios?
And what reunion show????
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@mousebumples:
Reagan, for all his faults, never bungled the response to a deadly pandemic and 180,000 + Americans died. I don’t think Trump can escape that
Then again, I did have a grown ass man the other day tell me that the people in the government “can’t be bullied” and that I “watch too much press” in response to telling him that the FDA was bullied into approving convalescent plasma therapy for COVID.
Then I asked a (white, older male) mail carrier how things were at the post office. He told me not to believe everything I see on TV. I told him that 40% of the mail sorting machines had been dismantled. His response? Most of them sat around not being used anyway! I countered that more people are going to vote by mail this election, so wouldn’t it stand to reason that these machines would be needed now more than ever? “Yeah”, almost sounding unsure/embarrassed going by his tone.
If he’s representative of many postal workers, then no wonder we haven’t seen more resistance at the lower levels of the post office besides a few cities.
Steeplejack
@WaterGirl:
Or, here’s a wacky thought, they just dropped it into the schedule after news of Boseman’s death and your TiVo listing is “cached” or something and hasn’t been updated yet. You could always set a recording from 8:00 to 11:00 (CT) and see what you get.
. . . Oh, look.
Mike J
@WaterGirl: Season 7, Episode 15, Jimmy Smits is running for president. Atrios gets a meeting with the candidate because Josh Lymon knows who he is.
As for the reunion: https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/entertainment/the-west-wing-reunion/index.html
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Mike J:
I’d completely forgot about that! I never watched the West Wing but I used to read Eschaton. And earlier today I saw somebody has imitated DougJ’s twitter deal, calling themselves “Intercept pitchbot”
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@WaterGirl: amen
CarolPW
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: It really doesn’t matter if someone running against a Republican you find particularly despicable has a chance or not. I consider those donations to be only polite – we should thank people for doing the right thing.
Mike J
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Here’s the clip:
https://twitter.com/emmeyekayeee/status/1299872187646533632?s=20
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Baud:
Bill Maher showed up on mine, from the Hill:
raven
College football @ 9.
frosty
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Yeah, they’ve always been Trump supporters. There’s a case to be made that it’s demoralizing to see all the opposition’s support and none for your candidate. Hence my pissoffitis inclination to put a Biden sign out.
During one of the Obama elections, my precinct captain said that if my County goes 34% for the D, PA turns blue. I went back and looked at election results and it was right on target. Depressing to realize that’s where I live, though.
ETA: Being from Ohio, I’m sure you’re familiar with that feeling too.
Steeplejack
@Steeplejack:
And Black Panther has started on TBS. “Baba, tell me a story.”
WaterGirl
@Steeplejack: Thanks for the info! They said back-to-back nights this weekend, so that sounds like tomorrow night, too. I’ll check it out tomorrow and record it then. In the meantime, I’m also set for next Sunday.
WaterGirl
@Mike J: Thank you for that!
I believe I missed season 7 because there were 3 shows I liked all on the same day and time back then. 2 years ago I figured I’d start at the beginning and then get to see the episodes I had missed, but then I broke my ankle and all plans went to hell.
Yay for the reunion! I get HBO through cable, I wonder if I’ll have access to that if it’s only through the streaming service.
WaterGirl
@Mike J: Thank you!!!!
I definitely never saw that episode. I may have to start at season 6 or something and then go through to the end. I truly loved that show. I wonder what other two shows seemed better to me at that time.
Maybe I don’t really want to know, in case it was a stupid decision!
TS (the original)
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
The president* is out there ensuring people get sick & providing no help to states with natural disasters but Bill Maher has some doubts. Maybe he just wants to get more democrats out to vote – or maybe he’s a fool.
No name
@Steeplejack: Thanks for this info!
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
Most NY comics are neurotic. Woody Allen, Larry David, Gilbert Gottfried, Richard Lewis. Maher is no different.
Yutsano
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Oh is that what Bill is wetting his pants over? Real Clear Politics is an aggregator like 538. However, unlike 538, it doesn’t rate its polls. Apparently what caused the “movement” is a polling firm called Trafalgar that puts in a “weight” for unseen Dolt45 voters. Curiously enough EVERY SINGLE POLL had Tang of Orange up by 1%. It was, at the very least, suspect.
My information source. Granted he’s just a YouTube guy, but he goes to where he gets his information so he can show you how to check it out for yourself.
catclub
@Frankensteinbeck: I found real clear politics has lots of polling history – state by state.
I shoulda read more in the thread. I am sure nobody has ever done that before posting their own brilliant insight.
WaterGirl
@Yutsano: Hey, any report today on the gray thing on your phone?
Mai naem mobile
I saw a bumpersticker a couple of days ago with ‘Miss Me Yet’ with a photo of Dubbya. I had to almost tailgate trying to figure out if it was Dubbya or Obama. You figure this bumper sticker is probably 10 years old but it didn’t look old or peeling. It was on a Suburban/Tahoe kind of vehicle. Anyhow, I am not sure if this person was being snarky about Donnie or was an Obama hater.
H.E.Wolf
I would be remiss if I didn’t mention AIDS.
[A moment of silence for those lost to that epidemic. :-( ]
J R in WV
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
On April 30th a tree fell on our house, right over the front door. It punched over a dozen holes in the roof.
I called Davey Tree service, and the local manager was out that afternoon. The crew showed up the next morning, and had the tree off the house the end of the day.
The next day they had the rest of the tree trunk gone. The bill for the emergency services was $5,698, and we sent a check that billing cycle. Then we got bill for over due, then we got a bill and a promise to turn the account over to a collection agency…
So I called the local office, and the staff told me that I wasn’t the first person to tell her that story… after another month, she called and I said we would look to see if the check had showed up in the account … nope.
So I called her back and used a credit card — now the only thing is that check floating out there in the post office system! After more than 75 days!
But the business knew that the postal system was trashed, already. And now I see the plan has been in place for two years, to destroy the system of handling the mail, deliberately!
Fuck these arrogant bastards for their illegal plot to interfere with our mail system! There’s a law against that activity!
Jackie
@H.E.Wolf: How quickly people forget. Reagan was deplorable.