No rest for the weary. Or is it wicked? Either way, it’s go time. We have just 57 days left.
Check out Election Action in the sidebar –>
How to do the most political damage to the GOP for the least amount of money? Do Texas.
(Information supplied by Joel Hanes.)
A Few Dollars Can Make a Big Difference
A few dollars can make a big difference in a state legislative campaign, in a way that’s just not possible in national contests.
The heavily-gerrymandered Texas House is the point of greatest potential leverage, the big enchilada.
Texas has 38 electoral votes; its current delegation in the US House comprises (R) 23, (D) 13. Texas voters have slowly been trending purple for several cycles: if we can flip the Texas statehouse before it redistricts, we can break the Republican grip on the US government.
Contribute to the Texas Democratic Party
For a dead-simple way to help that happen, contribute here to the Texas Democratic Party, which is vigorously pursuing a Red to Blue statehouse strategy: Texas Democrats Announce 22 Targeted State House Districts Ahead of 2020
Get Personally Involved in a Grassroots Effort in Texas
But if you want to feel some personal involvement with the grassroots, read on.
Independent grassroots organizer Susan Bankston Duquesne* is the proprietor of Juanita Jean’s, where she suggests direct contributions to the individual campaigns of 17 Texas Democrats who lost by less than 10% in their 2018 bid to flip an R district.
Maps
Here are maps of the districts and the candidates
The upper maps show the Democratic challengers; the lower maps show the Republicans who won in those same districts. (Note that 14 of the 17 Democrats are women and 6 are persons of color, while 15 of the Republicans are white men.)
Get Invested in a Candidate
So I hope you will choose one of the candidates listed below, and donate directly to their campaign. Look at their campaign site, get to know them. Think of them as your candidate, in whose success you have invested.
There are two links for each candidate – their campaign site and the Act Blue donation site.
Akilah Bacy HD 138
Campaign Site
ActBlue
Ann Johnson HD 134
Campaign Site
ActBlue
Natalie Hurtado HD 126
Campaign Site
ActBlue
Celina Montoya HD 121
Campaign Site
ActBlue
Brandy Chambers HD 112
Campaign Site
ActBlue
Joanna Cattanach HD 108
Campaign Site
ActBlue
Elizabeth Beck HD 97
Campaign Site
ActBlue
Joe Drago HD 96
Campaign Site
ActBlue
Alisa Simmons HD 94
Campaign Site
ActBlue
Lydia Bean HD 93
Campaign Site
ActBlue
Jeff Whitfield HD 92
Campaign Site
ActBlue
Lorenzo Sanchez HD 67
Campaign Site
ActBlue
Sharon Hirsch HD 66
Campaign Site
ActBlue
Angela Brewer HD 65
Campaign Site
ActBlue
Keke Williams HD 54
Campaign Site
ActBlue
Eliz Markowitz HD 28
Campaign Site
ActBlue
Sara DeMerchant, HD 26
Campaign Site
ActBlue
—
* Juanita says:
For three election cycles, I have begged for your money to help flip Fort Bend County, the largest suburban county in Texas. Once we flip Fort Bend, we can flip Texas, I argued.
And once we flip Texas, there will never be another Republican in the White House. Hillary carried Fort Bend in 2016 and in 2018, every Democrat on the ballot won. With your help, we did it.
Yutsano
Lots of work left to do yet. But success breeds success.
NickM
Is there a way for us to just donate to the Texas Democratic party and let them figure out how to spread around the money? I apologize if it was in the post and I missed it.
WaterGirl
@NickM: Yes! You can do that with a BJ Act Blue Thermometer. It’s right here:
https://balloon-juice.com/2020/09/03/all-2020-fundraising/
That link is always available in the blue box (top right on BJ). It’s also the second item in the hamburger menu on mobile.
Here’s the direct link to the BJ Act Blue for Democratic Party in Texas:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/bjtexas2020?refcode=thermometer
WaterGirl
@NickM: There’s no way to know how the TX Democratic Party will spit the money up. The pitch from Juanita Jean, reflected in this post, is that a little bit of money goes a really long way in some of these house races.
Hence the individual links. But anything we can do to help turn TX blue looks like a great investment.
WaterGirl
Also, if you didn’t get a chance to share your map in yesterday’s thread, you can still add your link to that thread and I’ll add your actual map.
https://balloon-juice.com/2020/09/07/election-nerds-share-your-maps/
Hungry Joe
This is very, VERY good. So helpful. I’ve been feeling a a little guilty about devoting all my election energy toward the Senate; now I can diversify easily, with just a few clicks. My Amex card is quaking in excitement.
TXSwede
Gave yesterday to Whitfield, Drago, the Dem in my House district, Debra Edmondson and our County Commissioner, Kathy Braatz.
Whitfield and Braatz are military veterans, and Whitfield was a human rights lawyer at The Hague before coming home to practice law in Fort Worth.
You are 100% right that these races can change the country.
dnfree
@Hungry Joe: yeah, this is so easy…my husband said in 2018, “What’s all this ActBlue on the credit card statement?” I had mentioned the donations from time to time, but it was a little surprising to see them all lined up.
HinTN
@WaterGirl: I did, indeed, add my map, which had changed from my yesterday’s whim to today’s.
Also, to the memories of Ann Richards and Molly Ivans, I’ve pitched $100 to the Texas Democratic Party.
TxTiger
In addition to the obvious good of flipping the Texas House, these 17 races also support the candidacies of excellent Democrats running for Congress. For instance, the districts for Joe Drago and Keke Williams overlap with CD-25, in which the outstanding Julie Oliver is running to defeat Trump toady Roger Williams, a multi-millionaire car dealer who took between $1M and $2M in PPP money then voted against disclosing recipient information. So supporting Joe and Keke’s efforts to GOTV supports Julie Oliver too. Really worthwhile investment overall.
Kent
I spent 13 years living and working in Central Texas and engaging in politics. I will always have a soft spot for certain aspects of Texas and Texans, but GOOD GOD I am glad that I’m not still trying to swim upstream like I used to be. It is so nice to actually live some place where the candidates I vote for actually win. It’s good for one’s mental health to actually win sometimes.
Perhaps today is a different and more hopeful time. But back during the Obama years it was just frustrating to see everything slowly erode year after year due to the horror show that was the Texas GOP, culminating in the election of Ted Cruz.
But yeah, let’s turn Texas blue!
RaflW
This is fantastic! I’ve been donating to state legislative candidates in AZ, Iowa, Colorado and of course Minnesota, my home state (and a few in WI & FL too).
I’m giving money away like there’s no tomorrow. Because if we don’t win big in November, that might be true. And while it’s lovely to see Susan Collins being buried under a mountain of opposition funding, is an extra $25 gonna matter in that race? Probably not.
But to Brandy Chambers or Sharon Hirsch, or any of the folks in the OP, ten or 25 or whatever bucks can do so much more.
eta: As a Horned Frog (TCU ’87) I’d also plug the Tarrant County Dems. Doug put up a thermometer for the Dallas + Tarrant Dems. One can click on the ‘distribute differently’ if you just want to do one or weight them unequally. At least at the county party level, you’re getting close to the individual candidates, and they will be working their turnout models for the whole ticket.
eta II: More broadly, I’m loving seeing people, not just here, who are looking at the full gamut. I think for many years Dems focused too much on who was president. That matters. Obviously! But we have to win back state Lege’s and even county and city races. @taniel on twitter gets to the local D.A. races even.
BlueGuitarist
@Hungry Joe:
Yes!
Thanks JoelHanes and WaterGirl!
Very good in part because this will reinforce US Senate efforts, these TX House candidates will help MJ Hegar defeat Cornyn and flip the US Senate.
Also, some of these districts overlap competitive US House elections and county elections.
Synergy up and down the ballot!
Josie
In my U. S. congressional district (02), Sima Ladjevardian is running a pretty good race against
BenDan Crenshaw, in case anyone would like to help stop him from going any further.ETA: This is a U. S. Congressional race, but overlaps with HD 138.
https://www.simafortx.com/
mad citizen
@Josie: Ben Crenshaw made me do a double take–the golfer? I think it’s Dan Crenshaw
The things you find out on wikipedia–on Ben Crenshaw: ”
Crenshaw married his second wife Julie in 1985.[6] All three of his daughters were presented to high society as debutantes at the International Debutante Ball at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel in New York City.[7]
Politically, Crenshaw is a Republican, and has donated money to multiple Republican candidates.[8]“
Josie
@mad citizen:
You’re right. Mind fart.
WaterGirl
@HinTN: Good on you for the donation in their memory!
Yeah, I am pretty sure I had already added your map before this post went up. So yours is definitely there now.
WaterGirl
@RaflW: and @everyone else:
If you or anyone else wants to do the homework to put together something like this post for other states or areas that, viewed as a whole, would make for very strategic investments, I would be perfectly happy to feature those in another post.
Let’s win this.
WaterGirl
@Josie: Do you have a link for that? Or is it one of the existing links and I don’t realize it?
BlueGuitarist
@RaflW:
Yes!
altho my reply to HungryJoe appears right after your comment i hadn’t seen yours when i posted.
synergy up and down the ballot!
WaterGirl
@Josie: I added the correction – to eliminate confusion! :-)
WaterGirl
Do you guys think it would be worth it to add this Texas fundraising post as another item in this list in the sidebar?
Election Action!
Political Fundraising
Taking Action: Things We Can Do
Voting Plan Illustrations
WaterGirl
Is there anyone here who is experienced at phone banking? And would be willing to write something up so we can feature phone banking in a very-near-future post?
So many people are intimidated by the idea, and km reminded me in yesterday’s posts that all the campaigns are looking for phone bank people right now.
Josie
@WaterGirl:
Thanks for making the correction. The link to her site is:
https://www.simafortx.com/
It’s not listed in your post since it’s a U. S. Congressional race.
Splitting Image
I seem to recall Nate Silver trying to game this out back in 2008 and his conclusion was that the GOP would have to take and hold New Jersey to keep a white coalition together if they lost their grip on Texas.
If the Democrats manage to pull Texas out of the Republican coalition, it will be the first time that Texas and California vote the same way in a presidential election since 1988.
Fair Economist
@Splitting Image: The coalitions have shifted since 2008 and NJ is way more blue. A Republican coalition w/o TX would probably need PA, WI, and MN or MI now. Honestly, though, TX is probably easier for them than any of those. If they’ve lost TX, they’ve just lost.
Barbara
@Fair Economist: Florida, Georgia and Texas are the bulwark of the Republican electoral map. Notwithstanding the electoral college weighting in favor of the mountain states, if the GOP routinely loses any of those three, it is toast.
joel hanes
Just got email with yet another Texas grassroots effort to flip Texas:
Rideshare2Vote is providing transportation to the polls to Dem-leaning marginalized voters whose votes are easiest to suppress and who are consequently among the most likely to skip voting.
Rideshare2Vote
WaterGirl
@Josie: I threw that into your original comment, as well.
Bostondreams
@Barbara: and right now it drives me nuts that Biden is struggling in Florida. This state would give 49% of its votes to COVID over Biden if it could.
WaterGirl
@joel hanes: I added that to the What We Can Do list that in the sidebar. There’s a link to that list in comment #22 above, also.
germy
I thought I was the only person with contractor problems:
WaterGirl
@germy: I wonder who got the contract for the Rose Garden work.
Splitting Image
@Fair Economist:
I think Silver had the GOP needing all of those as well. His point was how difficult the map would get if Texas goes blue. In fact, Hillary Clinton’s states plus just Arizona and Texas would give the Democrats 281 votes. Trump could hold Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, win Minnesota and still lose.
Granted he’s more likely to hold Texas than any of those four, but the GOP’s grip on Texas is based on gerrymandering and vote suppression. They don’t have a natural majority there anymore. If the Democrats can take the state house(s), it’s the beginning of the end.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Fair Economist:
MN is definitely turning purple to redish purple, though. We are witnessing realignments all over.
joel hanes
A national Democratic super PAC plans to spend $6.2 million across 18 races that will likely determine who controls the Texas House in January,
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@WaterGirl: I’m sure it was competed and awarded in full compliance with federal acquisition law.
joel hanes
@germy:
The Rose Garden wasn’t “renovated”
It was destroyed and replaced with a different garden, one that looks like the back entrance landscaping for pretty much any corporate headquarters building.
There’s nothing left Jackie Kennedy’s design
jonas
Worth pointing out as well: forcing the GOP to defend seats in Texas, including Cornryn’s, that would normally be in the bag means they can’t spend the money fighting Dems elsewhere.
H.E.Wolf
Former TX resident here – it’s a thrill to see this post! Thank you!
Re: phone banking. I have never done it. However, as a volunteer doing other tasks for campaigns, I’ve been in the room where it happens. :)
The phone bankers included union members (including male nurses who belonged to SEIU, the Service Employees International Union); retirement-age women (including African-American pillars of their church), and lots of high-school students.
There was always a script provided, so no need to improvise what to say, and a call list of Democratic voters.
During the weeks between the ballot “drop” to voters, and the deadline on Election Day, the State Party received a continual stream of information from counties around the state, indicating whose ballots had been received. As soon as that was known, that voter was no longer on the call list. (Another good reason to vote early!)
On Election Day 2018, the high-schoolers were there en masse, making calls to remind people to get their ballots in the mail by the deadline.
For a look at phone banking from the point of view of the recipient, here is a nice writeup from 2012. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/02/1138781/-My-formerly-Republican-Mama-got-a-call-from-a-Romney-Canvasser
rikyrah
It’s the White Whale.
But, how many polls do we have to see where Biden is:
a) leading
b) tied
c) trailing within the margin of error
Before we STOP saying ‘ outlier’.
I mean, I keep on reading polls, week after week, and people come back with ‘outlier’.
Sometimes, the stars align and you hit the bankshot.
It happens.
catclub
@Splitting Image:
Well, until those natural majority voters turn out, they do have a voting majority. I have been hearing ‘Texas is turning blue as soon as its majority voters vote’ for at least a dozen years that they haven’t. done so.
WaterGirl
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: hahahahaha
rikyrah
@dnfree:
BWA HA HA AH AH AHA HAH
WaterGirl
@catclub: Beto says Texas isn’t a red state, it’s a non-voting state.
Hopefully this will be the year we can change that. There are a thousand reasons to try, and no good reasons not to.
germy
@joel hanes:
Ruckus
@WaterGirl:
I did phone banking in 2008 for Obama and it really seemed like people were calling the same people over and over. Still there were 25-50 people on their phones for hours. I ran out of battery and had to plug in. It felt good, don’t know if it changed anything. It’s also possible that the technology to make it more effective may be much better.
James E Powell
@rikyrah:
It’s going to take decades for some Democrats (me!) to recover from 2016.
Barbara
@Ruckus: I did phone banking in 2004. I called voters in Wisconsin and they told me that I just had no idea how many calls they were receiving. In that situation, I thought it better to just ask them what they were worried about and if there was anything they wanted to know that I might be able to help them with.
MaximusNYC
Not to rain on anyone’s parade… but is flipping the Texas legislature realistically possible this cycle? I feel like flipping the FL or NC legislatures are more achievable. I threw a little cash to SwingLeft for some NC legislative races recently.
japa21
@Bostondreams: The problem with Florida is pretty much the Latino vote, which in Florida means the Cuban vote. Clinton won that in 2016, Trump is winning it as of now. Biden is actually ahead in the over 65 vote.
Come up with a way for Biden to win over the Cuban vote and he wins Florida, probably fairly easily.
Kent
Not really true. It’s grip on The Texas legislature and House Congressional delegation is based on gerrymandering. But year after year Republicans win state-wide governor, Senate, and presidential elections, often by wide margins of millions of votes. That’s not just voter suppression. It’s a majority. There are literally millions of apathetic Texans who just don’t bother to vote at all.
As for “natural majority” That assumes the growing Hispanic population is naturally going to be Democrat. Which isn’t necessarily the case, especially in a post-Trump world. George W Bush understood this. Your average Hispanic family in Texas lives in the suburbs, works in the trades or has a small business, drives a big full size pickup, and attends an evangelical or Catholic church. They are easy pickings for a non-racist GOP.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@japa21:
Are there any theories as to why Trump is winning the Cuban vote now when he didn’t in 2016?
WaterGirl
@MaximusNYC: If you’d like to do the research and find (or create!) the plan for flipping the legislature in FL or NC, I would be pleased to feature that plan, with links, in another one of these posts!
Is that something you would be interested in doing?
japa21
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Purely guess work on my part, but there may be some resentment for the normalization attempts begun by Obama of which Biden would have been a part. OTOH Trump got rid of a lot of those. But, like I said, that is pure guesswork.
Kent
My limited understanding of Florida is that the old GOP Cuban vote is aging out of the population, and that the Latino vote there is increasingly Puerto Rican, Dominican, Colombian, Venezuelan, and even Mexican and Central American. According to Wikipedia, the Cuban portion of the Hispanic population of Florida has fallen to 26%, although it is still the single largest portion. And I expect that the Cuban population has a higher percentage of citizens than the other groups who are more recent immigrants: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hispanics_and_Latinos_in_Florida
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@japa21:
Granted, you said it was guesswork, but if true the Cubans in Florida really need to move the fuck on and get some perspective. The Cuban Revolution was 63 years age
ETA:
@Kent:
If that’s the case, I do wonder why Trump is seemingly winning with that demographic. Do they all have collective amnesia about “Mexican rapists coming to rape everybody’s WHITE wives and daughters!11!” from 2016? Or the caravans invading the southern US border in 2018 before the midterms?
It’s no secret that Trump (and the rest of the GOP) is a racist POS
joel hanes
@MaximusNYC:
is flipping the Texas legislature realistically possible this cycle?
The political pros and semi-pros I read seem to think so.
And the upside is very very high. Think of it as a $200 million lottery jackpot in which you have a 25% chance of winning. You’d be a damned fool not to purchase a ticket.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
I remember reading that there was a huge influx of Puerto Rican refugees from Hurricane Maria that was going to cause a major shift in the Latino demographics and voting patterns. Did that happen?
I see Kent addressed that question at #56, with what sounds like a yes.
I also remember reading that the younger generation of Cubans are not necessarily so automatically Republican as their Castro-hating, Reagan-loving abuelos.
piratedan
just want to share the feeling that if Arizona can turn blue (and it is based on the 2018 numbers and the current polling), so can Texas. It doesn’t mean that it won’t be hard, but when you can reach people and inform them that you can have a government that is actually for people and not just the rich, you can make inroads with those who have been mostly indifferent because they don’t believe the system will change, simply because the GOP has stopped letting it change.
DougJ
Thanks for doing this. I will also continue to raise money for the Texas state Democratic party and those two counties near Dallas, but it would be cool if this effort can reach its goal.
raven
Rochester chief resigned.
Yutsano
Gonna go OT here but there is so much to unpack in this statement…
Source
Baud
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
Hillary actually won MN although it was close. I don’t understand why it is going backwards.
DougJ
Apparently it’s pretty realistic. I don’t know why but the way the districts are divided up there’s lots of pick-up chances. What I think happened is the massive suburban shift made the Republican gerrymandering worse for them than what an honest map would be.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@raven:
Related:
Meanwhile, some morons burned a mattress outside the North Precinct Community Policing Center in Portland. But I guess ANTIFA/BLM are the real violent ones
Speaking of Rochester, there were pictures of city police repeatedly teargassing a statue of Frederick Douglass at night because they thought it was a protester who wouldn’t move. Keystone Cops.
HinTN
@MaximusNYC:
NC – definitely,
TX – maybe,
FL – doubtful but we gotta try!
Baud
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
He’s an example of somebody who’s done an amazing job and is being recognized more and more.
WaterGirl
@Baud: Who is the “he” in your sentence?
Baud
@WaterGirl: Frederick Douglass of course!
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Baud:
Is this a reference to something stupid Trump said a few years back? There’s way too much to keep track of anymore
@WaterGirl:
I think the “he” is Frederick Douglass. There’s a statue of him in Rochester that police were firing teargas canisters at because they thought it was a protester that wouldn’t leave lol
Baud
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
This is true.
WaterGirl
@Baud: There is too much bullshit spewing to keep track!
thanks
debbie
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Oh, FFS. This reminds of me of when I visited a friend at her home that backed up to a woods. The previous owner had placed a sculpture of a deer looking as if it were emerging from the woods. She told me a couple of times each spring, a buck would happen by and take advantage of the situation, so to speak. Every frigging year.
Aleta
Today I got an unsolicited voter registration application in the mail addressed to my dog. (Name/address already entered on the form.) “Acc to our review of publiclly avail;able records, you may not be reg to vote … We will review the publicly available voter file in 8 weeks to see if you have sent your form. …”
Ceci n est pas mon nym
https://www.cnn.com/2017/02/02/politics/donald-trump-frederick-douglass/index.html
I don’t blame you. There’s way too much outright evil to keep track of, nobody has time for the merely stupid anymore.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Aleta:
Did it have a return address? Probably should report that to your state’s Secretary of State office
gene108
@WaterGirl:
For the technical side of it, from phone banking for my Congressional candidate (Rep. Andy Kim, NJ-3), get a Google voice number. That way you are not having your cell phone number displayed on a bunch of random strangers.
The next thing to deal with is the software the campaign uses to generate the call list, because this will affect what and how you submit reports back to the campaign (if) when you make contact with someone.
Third, the campaign will give you a script to introduce your self to the person you are calling. You do not have to wing-it about what to say. The campaign will also provide basic talking points of why to support the candidate.
Your success rate of engaging potential voters will be lower than traditional door knocking canvassing, because in our day and age very few people answer calls from unknown numbers, so expect a lot of calls that are unanswered
Edit: Campaigns and other organizations use https://www.mobilize.us/ to post volunteer opportunities. Since campaigning is all virtual, it’s an easy way to sign on to volunteer with a campaign.
Barbara
@Baud: The only thing that separates Minnesota from Nebraska or the Dakotas is the presence of Minneapolis-St. Paul. That might seem like an overstatement, but not by much.
Baud
@Barbara: That’s true for must about every state. The rural areas are blood red while the cities are blue. It seems like the rest of the midwest is getting bluer from where it was four years ago, but MN is going in the opposite direction.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@debbie:
LOL eww
@Ceci n est pas mon nym:
That LA mail dumping story has me pissed off. Who the fuck in the USPS would do that? Why aren’t the rank and file employees revolting more?
Baud
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Last I heard, the people involved weren’t USPS.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
In Ohio COVID news:
I have no idea if this just whistling past the graveyard on the part of THE Ohio State University, but I’m going to cynically assume it is
gene108
@Kent:
Same with Asians, who would vote more with the GOP, if not for the racism. I am painting with a broad brush here, but I think Asian culture is socially more conservative, in regards to things like dating and pre-marital sex, than even most conservative Christian groups.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Baud:
That contractor and all those that authorized this should be arrested and prosecuted. It’s a felony to interfere with US mail
Sloane Ranger
CNN is saying that Trump is ahead with Latino voters in Florida by 4%, 50% to 46%.
I know there’s loads of Cubans down there but, even so… what the hell are they thinking!
J R in WV
@WaterGirl:
An incompetent dick who contributes to The Donald, obviously.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Sloane Ranger:
That’s what I want to know. Did they all just forget the “Mexican rapists” bullshit from 2016? I have to wonder if this is just an outlier poll
J R in WV
@debbie:
Back when my mom was alive and required a lot of care, wife would go up to stay with her, and sometimes would take our dog. Then she would have to walk the dog as opposed to just letting her out on our farm. Once she got into the subdivision and came across a house with 3 concrete deer sculptures in the front yard.
Muffin saw them, and was furiously interested, so wife walked over to them. Muffin smelled first one and then the others, and finally looked at wife as if to say, “This isn’t funny, these deer are fakes!” LOL funny! She was a really smart puppy.
Kelly
A quick note to check in. We fled the santiam canyon fire at 1:30 this morning Mrs Kelly the cats and I and we are settled comfortably out of the smoke with some friends in Oregon City. No idea if the house is standing. also there’s no power here at the house we’re staying at but nothing’s on fire so it’s pretty luxurious. Need to charge my phone in the car
Baud
@Kelly: Stay safe. Hope your house is ok.
Ken
Rotating tag nomination?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Kelly:
Stay safe and glad to hear you’re ok
WaterGirl
@J R in WV:
Obviously! :-) Complete agreement!
I was wondering what we would find out about the specifics of which incompetent dick, and just how he is tied to the dumpster – directly to him or the family, or through a donor.
Barbara
@Baud: Maybe there are some Minnesota insiders who can explain it better.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Football news:
The Big 10 canceled their conference for this Fall, so I don’t know what DeWimp is talking about. Also came across this asshole’s column in Sports Illustrated, published a few weeks ago:
It goes on, but the tone is obnoxious
sdhays
The big question, to me, is: “Can a non-racist GOP can exist post-Trump?” I’m skeptical that they can recork that bottle in only one or two election cycles, but I’ve been surprised before at how quickly people can pretend stuff didn’t happen/wasn’t said/doesn’t matter anymore.
Nora Lenderbee
@gene108: It’s a very broad brush that covers 4 billion people. Asian cultures cover the spectrum of political views, some of which align very closely with the US GOP and right wing. (Including the racism.)
LuciaMia
Thats so funny; thought for sure you were gonna say it got riddled by hunter’s bullets.
Kent
Yes, it is their only hope to win at any level outside the white rural areas of the country. They will have plenty of consultants and experts who will tell them that. And plenty of business interests who will fund it as the corporate GOP doesn’t care about racism, only about money, taxes, deregulation, etc. And redistricting will make speed the process if it creates more competitive districts rather than bright red ones where the primary is the only thing that matters. And they will actually spend millions recruiting non-white candidates, especially Hispanic GOP candidates.
I expect they will pivot on a dime. And the fucking media will fall all over the first non-racist GOP types who emerge out of the wreckage.
raven
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): What DeWine is talking about people are fucking furious about how the Big Ten handled the cancellation. Just because people here hate football doesn’t mean everyone does. I hear an interview with a former Michigan player, physician and parent of a current player and that are his sentiments exactly.
raven
Kent
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): It’s all bullshit. Football players aren’t even on campus at most Big-10 schools. Assuming they actually made the decision to move forward with a fall season (just making the decision itself would take weeks) they will still have to bring all the players and support staff back to campus, spend weeks building the teams back up with practices and so forth. No way they could even get a season together before say November. At that point, might as well just wait until January and do it 2nd semester as already planned when most of these students will be back on campus if the pandemic allows.
Sheesh. I understand they are pissed about the decision. But no way it gets rolled back before November at the earliest. And then what’s the point? The Big-12 has it’s own separate season that doesn’t match any other?
Baud
@Kent:
I agree. They actually have a path forward if they choose to take it, and no one will hold Trump against them.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@raven:
I’m sorry, but that’s a crock of shit. “Hating football” has nothing to do with athletes catching a dangerous virus that could harm them for life. Imagine if a bunch of college athletes with myocarditis die on the field all over the country. Do you really want fall football that bad?
Kent
From current post on LGM blog. Pretty apropros to talking about starting football in the Big-10. The schools are actually going in the opposite direction. This is Indiana, a Big-10 school
zhena gogolia
Another great Cauvin video. Cohen, Trump, and Obama (impersonator).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wS6S43iiPek
Stuart Frasier
@Kent: Here in California, the GOP has been in the wilderness for many years and they show zero interest in moderating. If anything, the crazies drive out the moderates, which leads to a one-way ratchet of crazification. I doubt the national GOP is any more rational that our local brand. If the Republican party becomes non-viable nationally, then they will burn to the waterline and ultimately be replaced by a new conservative party.
MomSense
@WaterGirl:
I do a lot of phone banking. I could try to write something up but it may be more helpful to have a thread about phonebanking and have a few of us answer questions and share ideas in the comments.
joel hanes
@raven:
It’s one thing to love football and think it’s important.
It’s another to be willing for hundreds of people to die so that you can have the football you love.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Kent:
I thought it was bullshit. All I’ve been reading is how universities have been forced to close their campuses with outbreaks. It’s just wishful thinking that football will come back this fall
Aleta
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): ‘Center for Voter Info.’ I believe it’s a DC nonprofit that raises money for itself (iirc, from what I remember in 2016 at least, from pitches to Dem or progressive leaning people) by advertising its advanced technique (lol) get-out-the-vote work. There were complaints about their errors and tactics in 2016. Don’t know who they are working for now or if they’re doing that same work.
Hoodie
@raven: I suspect their rationale was pretty much the same as the one publicly offered by the PAC12, they were mostly concerned about the incidence of myocarditis in athletes they tested. There was some talk that they might be misinterpreting cardiac MRIs, but that’s getting into splitting hairs. I take what athletes say with a grain of salt – they’re young and want to play, especially the ones that are borderline to make the NFL. However, those are a small fraction of the total players. I like football as much as the next guy, but the SEC, Big12 and ACC seem to be taking a big chance on players’ health. The first time a asymptomatic guy keels over in a game from heart failure because of undiagnosed myocarditis, it will be a shitstorm.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Aleta:
I’d definitely report them to somebody
cain
That’s also true for Indians as well. The only reason Indians dont’ vote red is because of GOP’s stand on immigration IMHO.
lamh36
Late in thread, but I’ll post again in next open thread, JIC
Ok, so my officialy t/f date for Houston is Oct 4th. I have to register tovote in Texas at least 30 before voting starts.
Early voting in Louisiana doesn’t start until Oct 20. I’m going to Houston this weekend to hopefully look at a couple more apartments. I’d like to sign a lease for an apartment before moving my stuff, but not sure if that’ll happen anytime before the 1st of Oct!
If I do lease an apartment in Texas, my last day at the NOLA lab is Sept 18, but technially my job transfer won’t take effect until Oct 4th. I’ve already did my 30 day notice for my NOLA apt, but that lease won’t be up until Oct 2th.
Ugh…I guess, soon as I get an apt lease in Texas (hopefully before Oct 1), I’ll submit a voter registration form, ASAP and hope it’s processed by election day…ugh
Ken
Gee, the analogy with political commentators in the leadup to many recent US wars isn’t even strained, is it?
Kent
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): There are also a growing number of top seniors at Big-10 and Pac-12 schools who are saying “fuckit” and declaring early for the 2021 draft and just going into training mode for the combine with their personal trainers and such.
They have a point. Why risk career-ending injury and NFL “set for life” money for some crappy half-baked season with no fans and no national championship or big bowl games?
What that means is that these schools are going to have to to rebuild their teams with a lot more freshman this year, most of whom haven’t even been on campus yet much less ever ran a single play in practice under that school’s offence or defense. You don’t put all that together in 2 weeks.
WaterGirl
@Kelly: Not knowing is hard, but I am so relieved to hear that you are all safe. Without that, nothing else matters.
cain
Depends on whether they can pass as white or not. A lot of latinos don’t like illegal immigration even if they themselves came from illegal immigrants from before. Some of that is the newer immigrants could be competition etc.
raven
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): It has nothing to do with what I want.
cain
Anti-pattern? A lot of folks leaving MN and going elsewhere leaving behind the MAGA folks?
sdhays
@Kent: But will the base just get in line for that? They are out and proud now with President White Supremacist, and they aren’t going back under their rocks just because Dump was “stolen” from them in 2020. They’ve had a taste of being “the majority”, and they’re not going to give that up without losing again and again for awhile.
WaterGirl
@raven: I thinks schools should not be in session for students, why would we want to put student athletes at risk?
My thinking schools should not be open does not mean that I hate schools.
Why would thinking that it isn’t safe to have a sports season mean people hate football.
I love women’s volleyball, and that season was cancelled. That doesn’t mean that people hate volleyball.
Elizabelle
@lamh36: Can you use a friend or relative’s Texas home address, or your office address?
That’s cutting it too close, IMHO.
It would seem there are a lot of voters who do not appear on leases.
What is happening to the COVID evictees? Do they become nonviable voters, too?
WaterGirl
@MomSense: That sounds like a great idea. What if we did both? Start the post with a lit of a writeup, and then have a few people to answer questions?
The question is what time of day for the post? What timeframe would work for you? Evening? Weekend? What time?
raven
@Hoodie: It’s not the rationale, as I said, it was how they communicated or didn’t communicate. They released the schedule and cancelled the next day with zero explanation. I have never thought football was going to be played and still don’t think they will finish if things in Athens are nay indication. Dude was ranting about DeForde’s article and I responded.
cain
@Stuart Frasier:
There are no moderates anymore. In fact, the crazy factor is getting worse with Qanon. Eventually, even places like chamber of commerce and others will go the same way. It’s a sickness brought about by a culture of grift.
WaterGirl
@Elizabelle: @lamh36:
Voting is precinct by precinct, which is what makes it tricky. So even knowing what area you want to live in doesn’t necessarily allow you to know what precinct. Are you going to be staying in a hotel there before you move in?
Have you asked your “moving support team” or whatever the heck it’s called with your employer? They may have faced this question/issue before.
WaterGirl
@raven:
Ah. I did not understand that to be your issue. I can see why that would be annoying. I still don’t see how that translates to hating football, though. Still a bit perplexed!
raven
@WaterGirl: So you don’t think the attitude about football has changed here in the last 5 years? Ask Betty, she stopped putting up game day threads because people bitched so much. I’ll say it one more time, I never thought they were going to play this year and I’m still skeptical.
raven
@WaterGirl:
Unzip that old time religion
On the almighty football field
Beer bellies of all ages
Come to watch the gladiators bleed
“Now boys, this game ain’t played for fun
You’re going out there to win
How d’ya win?
Get out there
And snap the other guy’s knee!”
BlueGuitarist
@MaximusNYC:
Yes, the 150-member Texas House can be flipped.
Democrats need a net gain of 9 seats.
In addition to the point in the OP that 17 seats came within 10% in 2018, Beto carried 9 seats, and came within 5% in 10 others.
In 12 of these seats Democrats got more votes than Republicans in the primaries.
But, in almost all of them, Republican have so far raised more money.
WaterGirl
Six hours is a long time! Just put up an open thread. A really open thread.
WaterGirl
@raven: I completely agree that attitudes about football have changed here.
I just don’t understand the connection between cancelling football because of COVID and hating football.
Kent
@cain: MN is a border state. Between the upper Midwest great lakes region and the Dakotas and great plains. Kind of like a northern version of Missouri. It doesn’t surprise me that a lot of rural MN is getting pulled into the Dakotas and plains orbit. Take away Minneapolis and a lot of what’s left looks like North Dakota.
debbie
@raven:
OSU parents are practically brandishing pitchforks they’re so angry. The Big Ten is screwing with their sons’ financial futures.
At the same time, students, especially those living off campus, are being stupid and all kinds of parties are doing nothing more than increasing positivity rates.
raven
@WaterGirl: Well I’m sorry.
Dan B
@Kelly: Glad to hear you’re out of the smoke and fire danger. We’ve been to Breitenbush Hot Springs many times and over the pass to Bend, where my neice and nephew in law have a newborn and my brother’s wife lives in Redmond. It’s amazing country. I hope you get back soon but this month is looking to be brutal for the entire west.
FT Fossil Fuel barons.
raven
@debbie: Even at schools like OSU, Bama and Georgia the number of players who ever make a dime is minimal. People like the game for as many reasons as people don’t like it.
debbie
@raven:
From what I can tell, it’s the tailgating that’s the main draw. Most of the people who show up stay in the parking lot and party rather than watching the actual game.
Kent
Shrug. What do I know. I just expect to see a lot of young polished pro-business Hispanic-type candidates popping up in places like Texas and Arizona and Florida who will have deep pocketed backers behind them. Will they make it out of the primaries against white fundie teahadist types? Who knows. Probably depends on the district. But I expect to see a lot of money being dumped into the effort to rebuild the GOP and that basically means recruiting and backing these kinds of candidates at the local and regional level.
I don’t expect the country to repeat CA. If Trump loses I expect the GOP to come ROARING back in 2022.
CarolDuhart2
I can’t blame those seniors. At least pros are paid to take risks like that-and they get things like health insurance, life insurance, social security, and if they last long enough, some kind of pension. They can at least provide for their family rather than be discarded if they get sick or injured
This will rip through college football, college baseball, and college basketball as athletes figure playing for free isn’t worth the risk. I also expect a lot of prospects will simply sit out until COVID is controlled. What’s a year or two if you can stay healthy and available?
Geminid
Rachel Bitecofer put up a 7 part tweet about recent polling of Hispanics in Florida. She ascribed trump’s apparent lead in Florida in the group to a messaging void. She says the trump campaign has been intensively microtargeting Hispanic males, but the Democrats have not been offering a countervailing message. She suggests that issues of competence- economic, public health- are the Democrat’s strongest message. She did not mention trump’s infamous rant about immigrants at his 2016 campaign kickoff, which many people feel should be disqualifying to Hispanics. Just kitchen table issues like jobs, health, and education.
Kent
@CarolDuhart2: Exactly. I mean they aren’t even on campus anyway, just doing zoom classes to finish up their senior year. Might as well just sign with an agent, hire your own personal trainer, and get your ass ready for the combine and draft.
RaflW
@WaterGirl: Thank you! I have a longish list of MN candidates, I should pare it down to maybe a top 5 or top 7 and can follow up soon.
raven
@Kent: Where do you get that they are not on campus? The whole point of the Michigan alum/MD was that the players are on campus and in a safer environment than they would be otherwise.
raven
@CarolDuhart2: Yea, Georgia had one player leave and LSU one.
RaflW
@Kent: The big shift in MN has been on the Iron Range in NE Minnesota. Longstanding union stronghold, but as taconite mining & employment has struggled, chinks have appeared.
And Democrats in MN are much more associated now with environmental issues, and in particular opposing a copper-nickel mine. Trump has his opening in that labor/enviro fissure.
Stuart Frasier
@Kent: I think it’s far more likely that we see a flood of Qanon and Vanilla ISIS type Republican candidates in 2022 than Chamber of Commerce type, whether or not Trump wins. They can’t put that genie back in the bottle.
CarolDuhart2
@CarolDuhart2: And we have experience that says sitting out a year or two isn’t all that harmful. Think of the athletes who were drafted during World War 2, some of them already pros. And later years when some were drafted and had to spend time in the military, not to mention those who graduated from service academies and had to do their service before leaving. Did the interruption really hurt them all that much? One could even make an argument that the break helped them mature mentally and appreciate the opportunity more. And as long as one stays in shape (better odds of that than back them)?
WaterGirl
@raven: You’re sorry I’m so dumb that I can’t understand? :-)
WaterGirl
@RaflW: That sounds great! I hardly need to say this, because I assume this is exactly your plan, but I assume will tell us about the candidates and explain why these races are important.
raven
@WaterGirl: No, just that you don’t see what I’m trying to say. The conversation was initiated by someone who, in my opinion, doesn’t like the game. It’s obvious in the poem he posted and his attitude toward a writer who pursued the issue.
RaflW
@WaterGirl: Yup. I’ll need a little time, but yes, I’m working from a list I’ve generated myself with input from grassroots endorsers. Aim is to get to the good swing seats that will help MN legislatively, esp with redistricting coming (after our crap census, dammit all).
raven
@CarolDuhart2: The Purdue Illini were players who were at Illinois and then, when the war started and Purdue became aviation oriented, went there and played for the Boilers.
MomSense
@WaterGirl:
Weekday evenings or weekends work for me.
piratedan
@Geminid: I would also take a moment to point out (gawd I hate it when it seems like I’m mansplaining) that Cubans and Mexicans (and Puerto Ricans) have their own identity and if Trump is talking about Mexicans, they may not think he’s talking about THEM (Not sure that DJT actually feels that way).
I would think that pointing out his statements about the military would make some inroads with the community and pointing out that none of this is normal and large family gatherings (which is something that is contra-indicated these days) being shut down is because of the bungling of the federal and state COVID response. I can’t speak to if the Florida Dems have used this as a messaging theme…
cain
They will have to fight the evangelical grift folks – they like their money and they will leverage their churches against any of those people.
Kent
If the schools are on virtual learning and football is postponed until the spring then the students are not CURRENTLY on campus. To re-start football while the rest of the campus stays virtual would mean bringing all the players back to campus, bringing back all the staff necessary to support them from meals to housekeeping, etc. etc.
Not saying it couldn’t be done if they wanted to. Just that restarting the fall football season when you don’t even have the players on campus NOW would be a major lengthy endeavour.
Some of the Big-10 schools might be doing on-campus learning right now. But a whole bunch of them are not. And some like Indiana started in-person and are switching to virtual. I don’t think any Pac-12 schools are doing on-campus learning right now
By contrast, the SEC schools that are getting ready to start play next weekend have had their teams on campus and in training camp since early August.
Bostondreams
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
“If that’s the case, I do wonder why Trump is seemingly winning with that demographic. Do they all have collective amnesia about “Mexican rapists coming to rape everybody’s WHITE wives and daughters!11!” from 2016? Or the caravans invading the southern US border in 2018 before the midterms?”
Perhaps because much of that demographic do not see themselves in those comments? From what I understand, there is not necessarily a great deal of unity across nationalities…
Raven
@Kent: got it, I thought you meant the players.
WaterGirl
@raven: Ah. I didn’t actually read the poem because I could care less about a poem about football. So i didn’t get the context.
WaterGirl
@RaflW: If we win, we can re-do the census.
CarolDuhart2
@Kent: Two years is too soon. The kind you are talking about would be newbies with pretty bad memories of Trump. And those types would have to take a “live and let live” attitude towards social issues to even be competitive in the suburbs, and a non-hostile attitude towards the environment and science in general. No way they get out of a Q-Anon primary. Add the increasingly racist attitudes towards brown people in general, and Catholic brown people in general, and its rolling the boulder uphill for the Republican party here.
Gvg
@WaterGirl: it’s a perception thing, a feeling. People here definitely pick on football lovers. I used to love it. Now I feel guilty for that. I think that is part of it. Guilt that we supported a viewing for us that turnips out to be much nastier than just some physical injuries. The injuries mess with peoples minds which is viscerally threatening to us.
anyway, I think the sport has got to change. It has before. What is played today is radically different than originally done and that has been caused by various rules changes, many made the game more exciting for spectators. It hard to imagine how and building consensus, but they have too many other concerns.
Just One More Canuck
@Baud:
Glendale? Hmm
WaterGirl
@MomSense: Okay, sounds good. Any thoughts on who else might be good for the Q & A?
jeffreyw
@Ken:
That would be fine.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@raven:
Football isn’t my favorite sport in the world, but that isn’t why I posted that article or why I posted those song lyrics. I hate the type of attitude that leads to people wanting to play a game despite the obvious public health risks, especially to everybody else. Those lyrics, while satirical, are emblematic of that attitude where the only thing that matters are sports (and money). Well, at least the whole song is, anyway. That particular passage is critical of the hyper-violent school of football coaching imo
raven
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Pat Forde is a sports journalist who is a national columnist for Sports Illustrated and the leader of the “Coronabros,” a fringe left-wing sports media group that has dedicated their lives to cancelling College Football due to the China Virus. He previously worked for ESPN, The Courier-Journal in Louisville, Kentucky, and Yahoo Sports.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@raven:
Yeah, that’s on his Wiki page at the moment. It sounds crazy and is definitely wiki-vandalism. The “China Virus” is a huge tell as is the “Coronabros/dedicated their lives to cancelling College Football” bit
This is probably linked to the whole Outkick thing. Outkick is right-wing sports blog and Forde commented on the controversy via Twitter
grandpa john
@raven: But some do.Clemsons Star quarterback, Trevor Lawrence is projected as a potential number one pick. The guy he replaced as quarter quarterback , Deshuan Watson, just signed a new contract . 4 years, 160 million. Trevor is con sidered to be as good if not better than Deshaun. If Trevor loses this season what does he potentially lose?”
Raven
@grandpa john: not a dime
ChuckInAustin
Thanks everyone.
Another Scott
Thanks for this.
Donated to the Texas Party and Juanita Jean’s.
Fingers crossed.
Forward!!
Cheers,
Scott.
GLEN TOMKINS
Trump is certain to quite sincerely believe that he won the upcoming election, no matter what everybody else says in the aftermath of the election. He’s demented. If it’s just him who has this belief, if he fails to find non-demented enablers throughout his party willing to join in out of self-interest, the idea he spouts that Trump Really Won never does anything but make a loser look more like a loser.
If our side flips the TX state lege, that will be an existential level motivation for Rs everywhere to join the Trump Really Won movement as the only way to save their own political existence.
Trump Really Won is going to have to be based on the idea that the election results as reported are illegitimate. COVID kept voters away from the polls unfairly. The mails failed to get ballots to voters or back to election officials. D officials, or Soros, just outright stole votes, in many different ways. Well, if it is accepted that the results in the presidential race got screwed up, state races were run on the same day, same ballot, suffering from the same disqualifying irregularities that prove that Trump Really Won. It follows that if Trump Really Won, Rs everywhere down ballot really won as well.
The current TX lege, even if its majority apparently changes for the next session because the Ds win a majority of seats this election, is going to have the entire lame duck period to do something about Trump Really Won, and in the process about All We Rs Really Won as well. The lege can pass a law declaring the results of the election void, and that no popular election can be held until COVID is under control.
The US Constitution gives state leges the power to name electors any way they choose (doing so by a popular vote is just a norm, and we know that with Rs around, rules are an endangered species and mere norms are already extinct), so the TX lege will express the obvious true will of the people of TX — that they sadly can’t express themselves because COVID has screwed things up — by choosing a slate of Trump electors.
Every R state lege where Biden won will do the same thing. Biden can’t win without EC votes from states that now have R leges, so I guess he loses. Should the R majority on SCOTUS try to throw a flag on that play, against its own interest, well, Congress is the controlling legal authority on which EC votes are legitimate. If Trump Really Won, then the red states will have gone with Every R Senator and House Member on the Ballot Really Won, so forget about there being a D majority in each chamber to count EC votes as if they were determined by the PV in the states they’re from.
The Rs can stand losing Trump. Most of them would actually be secretly happy to see him go down in flames. But they can’t lose the TX state lege, and other state lege majorities, because continued control of those are the future of the party, it’s only lifeline against the demographic tide. So if Trump going down in flames drags all of them with him in some loss so huge and so nationalized that even the TX state lege goes D, they either nationalize and generalize his delusional Trump Really Won to include themselves, or they accept their own political deaths.