Trump’s favorite pollster is Rasmussen. It’s the only poll during this interminable hell-presidency that occasionally shows Trump’s approval rating breaking 50%. On the rare occasions that happens, Trump shouts it from the rooftops via Twitter with a formulaic “working hard, thank you!” As if the poll were evidence that he isn’t a historically unpopular president (it’s not because he is). So this had to leave a mark:
Et tu, Rasmussen?! ?️ https://t.co/v3MCDxoDXC
— Tom Watson (@tomwatson) October 7, 2020
Trump followed up yesterday’s tweet-storm breaking off COVID-19 relief talks with a piping-hot, fresh batch of crazy this morning, including rants about the Mueller investigation and a call for the arrest of Hillary Clinton. So that’s how his day is going.
How is your day going? Gonna watch the debate tonight? If Senator Harris decides to attend despite the inadequate safety measures the debate commission took to protect her from an inmate of America’s COVID Hotspot, maybe she’ll walk in wearing a moon suit.
Don’t they usually wait until the final poll to correct their numbers? Good sign.
capturing this from the previous thread because its a great summation of what took place in the McSally/Kelly debate last night for AZ SEN.
drill thru unless a FP decides to embed this for your enjoyment
As I understand it, Rasmussen starts out with a large R bias, and gradually reduces it so they’re in line with everyone else (and reality) by election time. Since we’re still three weeks out, that +12 is in line with the other polls that are more like +15.
She should walk in in a hazmat suit with a hand pump sprayer. And then pump it up and squirt Lysol at Pence whenever he tells a lie.
“Try to rattle your opponent, who’s an astronaut.” would seem like the best ever piece of political advice dished out by a campaign consultant.
Feh. It’s not one big election, it’s fifty small ones.
True, but the numbers are interrelated. And there are more national polls to chew on.
When the thread title flashed across the screen (from my RSS reader) I first thought it said “When You’ve Lost Rasputin!
edit: I was already trying to figure out who Rasputin would be. Any thoughts? There are so many options, I couldn’t decide.
might trump in desperation try to play the “let’s start a war” card as a gamble to reset the election background away from covid? What would the most likely candidate spot for a war be?
In his steroid/addled mental state, he is sociopathic enough to pull a stunt like that. Would the military stand down to stop him if he did? Other gop politicians, esp in the senate?
Make the Republican Party small enough to drown in a bathtub.
He supports Biden. He has some standards.
Who knows, especially with the Dex? But he has seemed to recognize that a large scale war doesn’t help him. And Putin may not want it either.
@trollhattan: in his ads, he doesn’t trade on his marriage to her, you see pictures of her in a family settling, and he hasn’t mentioned her in any of his campaign ads, and McSally goes ahead and says this and she HAS to know, HAS to, it’s their cause celebre for sane gun control.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) – Florida officials say there is no indication that a cyberattack crashed the state’s online voter registration system just before the enrollment deadline for casting ballots in next month’s presidential election.
Secretary of State Laurel Lee said in a statement issued late Tuesday that it does not appear that bad actors caused Monday’s collapse of registration system. Lee has said that over a million attempts an hour were coming into the system, causing it to overload.
Cyber security experts have said that an intentional attack aimed at crippling the system would have involved millions of attempts per second.
“We have not identified any evidence of interference or malicious activity impacting the site,” Lee said.
Because of the crash, Gov. Ron DeSantis allowed additional registrations for seven hours Tuesday. Several voting and minority rights groups filed a federal lawsuit, saying that was insufficient and arguing that at least two more days are needed to allow for people to be informed of the extension and to act on it.
U.S. District Chief Judge Mark Walker in Tallahassee rejected the groups’ request for an immediate extension late Tuesday, but said he would consider their demand after a hearing on Thursday. The groups include Dream Defenders, New Florida Majority, Organize Florida, LatinoJustice PRLDEF and others
My husband and I received our CA ballots yesterday, filled them out in the evening (we disagreed on some of the ballot initiatives, like the dialysis one), and will drop them off at a ballot Drop Box about a mile from our home today. I usually check online to make sure they’ve been received and then we’ll focus on getting other people to vote.
I’m also a bundle of nerves because my book is on submission to publishers and I hope the editor I like the best (had a really great conversation with and seems to really get the book) is the person I end up with.
@WaterGirl: I don’t know, except to say that the shorter nickname for “Rasputin” might be “putin.”
Harris needs to borrow Jaime’s plexi screen – just walk on stage and put it up, maybe need to walk on with a pair of props people wearing masks and spend the first few minutes installing the screen, and then just smile at the ‘moderator’, i.e. one of Pence’s toadies, and say straight to the camera ‘Right – now, where were we?’ Confidence, innovation, competence and sane caution – what’s not to like?
Harris walks in wearing an astronaut outfit.
“I got it from future Senator Mark Kelly.”
Later: press notes she is wearing Converse All-Stars and some very concerned Twitter folks worry about her arch support. Her ability to be able to take the role of President is reduced to this question.
Good luck with the book!
Germany, of course. Tradition.
@WaterGirl: It’s surprising (and disheartening) that there are so many candidates for today’s version of a religious faker who rose to power by flattering the absolute dictator of a feudal empire.
However given that Rasputin reportedly had horrible hygiene, I’ll go with Steve Bannon.
Who’s been hypnotizing Melania?
@Steeplejack (phone): Thank you! I’ve never been through this before and the waiting is the worst part.
On the election, I wish there was a way to let the Biden campaign know “Hey – I already voted for you. Use your resources elsewhere.”
I find it amusing that Scott Rasmussen developed a polling method that favored the GOP (intentionally or unintentionally), and was then run out of the company named after him for not going whole hog on biased polling.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Baud: I always thought Rasmussen worked the losing side in a election fantasy polls and just since 2004 that’s always been the Republicans.
Lawfare: Cancel the Vice Presidential Debate
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
Why isn’t her Secret Service detail stepping in here? It’s their job to protect these folks from biological weapon attacks. Kinda feel the same way about the next POTUS debate too. It shouldn’t be up to the campaigns. The secret service should cancel any debate if they can’t make conditions 100% safe for both candidates.
@hueyplong: IIRC, ‘ras’ means ‘chief’ or ‘head’ in Arabic, so Ras Putin kinda makes sense…..
This year, you can sign up for notifications through ballotrax. You can choose text, email or phone call and the system will notify you when your ballot is received and then whether it was accepted.
I dont really want to ask this question, but what the hell: arrest for what?
@piratedan: I don’t usually read replies on tweets, but that was fun.
Online buddy with this bozo?
Waikiki man charged for bizarre ’email bomb’ cyber attack targeting HPD
@germy: Must be the same “bad actors” who crashed the online schooling system: a single 16 year old who didn’t want to go to school. I’m so old I remember when a FL newspaper basically setup a similar network to the FL election system in 2016, and an 8th grader broke into it within 10 mins. There’s zero reason to expect DeSantis, or any of the other R shitheels, to be operating in good faith wrt the election.
Bannon has to be Trump’s Rasputin. And while I’m unaware of his surviving any murder attempts he’s somehow stayed out of prison, which makes him bulletproof relative to the typical early Trumpers.
@cmorenc: The classic Latin American merengue – the Venezuelan Menace
@Felanius Kootea: oooh, break a leg!!
Somehow = he posted bail
@Ken: Yep. Same crap every election.
@Scout211: Thank you – didn’t know about ballottrax. Very helpful.
Mein Fuehrer, [pause] Steiner, I mean, Rasmussen, [pause] has you down by 12.
@C Stars: Thank you!
@Cheryl Rofer: Excellent column.
Why can’t they move the debate out of doors? Use heatlamps, if they must. And if not outdoors, put them in separate rooms. The technology exists.
Shame on the Debates Commission. Step up again, League of Women Voters. Women get shit done.
@Felanius Kootea: Best wishes re: your submission. Hope you get your editor.
According to my USPS Delivery Notice email, my ballot will arrive today. Debating whether to fill it out right away and drive to a drop box a few towns over, or wait until the 19th, when the one at my local city hall opens. I’m in Illinois, so I’m not worried. But I am eager to fill it out and fling it back into the system.
It’s notable that previous polling from all the pollsters was remarkably stable– this seems to be changing. And so, now there’s an actual changeable group at the margin, and there are voters out there that can be persuaded. Big change.
That was the old Rasmussen business model. A couple years back (2012?) they switched to being a fake poll outfit – they generate the polls their clients want, like Trafalgar.
So this means somebody in the Republican ecosystem wants a major strategy change and commissioned a poll to show oncoming disaster for them with current strategies. Nothing to do directly with actual facts, although they’re probably pretty good for us in the internal polls that motivated whoever it was to commission that from Rasmussen.
My Massachusetts mail ballot arrived. An odd detail, disturbing if I were more suspicious of Massachusetts than I am: the inner yellow envelope was not sealed on the ends; it fell completely open as a folded sheet and I had to tape it shut. This didn’t happen for the state primary.
I’m wondering if anyone else is seeing this. We’ll see if this causes any problems.
@Punchy: I suspect that the “logic” (yes, they keep using that word, and I do not think it means what they think it means) is along the lines of “arrest her now, and we’ll manufacture a case against her later.”
There is a better chance of Trump revealing his health care plan than there is that this will actually happen, of course.
I skipped the presidential debate, and that turned out to be a good thing. I have a ton of work to do, but will try to watch tonight’s debate, which I think should be postponed.
I am not concerned with how Harris will do. She will be fine. But some people may watch the debate with an obvious question in mind: how do they feel about Harris possibly having to complete Biden’s term in office?
So, the GOP pundits have already drafted how Harris lost the debate and demonstrated her unworthiness. So I expect an ascending arc of bullshit from she is too: shrill, leftist, scary, uppity.
For sane people watching, I hope that Harris points out that Pence, who barely registers his existence, is little more than a complacent tool for a madman. If he had either intelligence or integrity, he would have resigned the office of Vice President.
White & Gold Purgatorian
Yeah, I’ve been worried Trump will nuke a few US cities to distract from his COVID problem and wipe out perceived enemies. Bonus from his point of view, it would also suppress millions of Democratic voters.
@White & Gold Purgatorian: In 2004 I was worried that Bush was going to nuke the Fleet Center (now TD Garden) and wipe out the Democratic Convention in a false-flag terrorist attack. Two birds with one stone, right? Started imagining a whole scheme for how he could do it.
If this election were a meal it’s cooked and waiting to be plated & served. The only question left is how big our portions will wind up being. So let’s vote and get the biggest share possible.
As of this morning all of the 14 folks I had on my personal GOTV list have voted. Friends & family making me proud.
@WaterGirl: I was sad last year when San Francisco lost it’s last Rasputin Records. Thankfully there are still plenty of others in the Bay Area.
@Leto: Damn, that is good!
Even this close to 11/3, my poll phobia remains well entrenched so I refuse to enthuse about some numbers. Also, I don’t watch the so called “debates” live for a variety of reasons so I will miss this one as well. Colbert will catch me up tomorrow.
We did get our ballots over the weekend so there’s that. I’ll take them to our designated polling place on 10/19, the first day of early voting to drop in the designated mail-in box. Does it make me a bad person that I am hoping that some Rethug “poll watchers” will be there so I can taunt them as I drop off our ballots?
@Baud: What is the Dex, please?
President Obama has a handy graphic for any dipshits who still think Trump (or any GOPer) is good for the job market.
He is the “Trump Whisperer”
I’ll settle for moonboots to plant in Pence’s darkside.
@opiejeanne: Short name for the steroid he’s on (unless I got the name wrong).
@White & Gold Purgatorian: Absent Martian tripods parading through the streets, an order for US forces to nuke a US city would be blatantly illegal and should be disobeyed. Matt McIrvin’s strategy of falsifying a terrorist attack is, I think, marginally more plausible,
Our CA ballots were delivered yesterday and while they now sport prepaid postage, I’ll be dropping them off in person (once I sift through all the bloody propositions).
Just don’t ask what Obamagate is. heh.
She had to have done something wrong, she’s a democrat! Arrest Her! Wait what? She’s not running for office? What the hell are you talking about, She’s my opponent!
White & Gold Purgatorian
@Matt McIrvin: Ha! And Trump makes W look like a very stable, principled, genius. Never thought I would be nostalgic for the Bush years.
@Punchy: Something something “Coup” something something “RUSSIA HOAX!” Also, Senator Harris is “further left than Crazy Bernie” and Biden “would not last a month,” so I guess he’s implying Harris will murder him? There’s just tweet after incoherent, impotent tweet from Trump today, almost as if he feels the walls closing in.
@Ken: It’d take a big-ass conspiracy, though, hard to keep the lid on it. That kind of Bond-villain behavior is probably beyond Trump’s capabilities.
Then it has to be patent leather Doc Martins. (I somehow missed patent leather’s 200th anniversary, which was last year.)
Kamala can rock Doc Martins, I’m sure of it.
What makes you think they aren’t waiting?
@Betty Cracker: Trump’s tweets are a textbook example of what happens when you ask a really stupid person to regurgitate the FoxNews talking points he just ingested.
No more, no less.
@Baud: No, you’re right. It’s dexamethasone.
Also, it’s moved way up in the google search suggestions in the last week, along with phrases like “dexamethasone side effects”, “dexamethasone warnings”, and “dexamethasone withdrawal”.
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?: In this vein, I think Kamala should recruit a Dr. Fauci or equivalent epidemiologist to accompany her and point out all the reasons they must leave and not participate in this dangerous setup.
J R in WV
OK, this is really LOL good funny.
The bane of Catholic school nuns.
She knows what she did.
Pretending it’s not there, or not a big deal isn’t limited to the White House.
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?:
That’s not how it works. The Secret Service can give advice, but in the end it’s the protectee’s decision. Which is as it should be.
“Now scuff up those shoes immediately, young lady!” [hands over piece of sandpaper.]
@Scout211: @Felanius Kootea: Don’t expect instant updates on that, depending on your county. My “your ballot has been mailed” text came the day after my ballot arrived in my mailbox, and I dropped off my ballot in the SLO County Elections Office drop box on Monday and haven’t gotten a “your ballot has been received” text yet.
@Baud: Thanks so much. I saw it used yesterday and forgot to ask.
White & Gold Purgatorian
@Ken: I know, that’s how it is supposed to work, and probably how it would work if a dexamethasone addled Trump tried to wipe out, say, Chicago or Portland. But damn, a lot of guardrails have been crumpled since Trump took over. And truly, having them fake a terrorist plot to crush “enemies” or even just to suppress voting is disturbing enough and no longer nearly as unthinkable as it should be.
A Ghost to Most
@Kylroy: It wasn’t hard. Bias the sample size towards landlines.
That is not going to happen. It would be terrible politics – agreeing to doing a debate and bailing on it is guaranteed to be read not as being resolute but as being a coward – and the Biden team knows it.
The way to handle it is to use the first COVID-19 question to point out the basic problem, which is that the Trump Administration, as exemplified by Pence, the head of the task force, refuses to do what its own experts recommend, including by fighting over measures to protect the candidates, moderator, and audience when everyone knows Pence was exposed to someone who has the disease.
They’re correct, to the extent that it’s true that Chucks have no arch support to speak of. I can’t wear them. But that’s really scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of things to harp on.
This is very funny.
“Don’t Be Afraid of Rabies”
I am finally getting comfortable because the size of the margin is getting too big to steal. If this was a closer race, Trump and all too many Republicans in the states and some Supreme Court Justices would have happily thrown democracy in the trashcan for the second time.
@burnspbesq: On the other hand, it’s comforting to think that that’s the best they’ve got in terms of criticism.
@patrick II: We’re not done yet. Let’s increase those margins a little more. Teach them a lesson they’ll never forget.
“MJ Hegar, the former Air Force pilot running as a Democrat against Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), told the Houston Chronicle that she voted for Republican presidential nominees John McCain and Mitt Romney in 2008 and 2012.”
Snarki, child of Loki
Biden 60% Trump 40%
Biden 57% CovidEbola 43%
Biden 58% GiantPoisonousGenitalWorms 42%
Maybe Trump should team up with CovidEbola.
So what? That’s good.
@Anoniminous: you think that hurts Hegar’s chances? I don’t.
Jeeze, from the photos, they’ll be seated. I’d worry more about lumbar support if were willing to give it a nanosecond of concern.
Some people just are incapable of being happy unless they have something, anything to carp about.
@Anoniminous: Did she vote for Hillary?
She’s the nominee, and she’s within spitting distance from Cornyn. I just hope it doesn’t discourage Obama supporters too much.
Emma from FL
@Betty Cracker: Whattayouknow? Nemesis answers prayers!
The Republican Money People have decided Trump is a lost cause and are putting money in Senate races to “keep that Socialist Biden” under control.
Lest he nationalize our toasters for the People’s Breakfast Collective #178, I suppose.
Maybe he wandered into the
Death StarWhite House trash compactor while in a dex-induced haze.
I have the impression that this is how a lot of Fox polling works as well — a combination of motivating their own voters to turn out while encouraging Dems to be overconfident.
The slogan for much of our media these days.
@trollhattan: Possibly too early to tell but it looks like there may be a burgeoning outbreak in the NFL too.
So it’s OK if a person who will automatically become a leader of the Democratic Party didn’t vote for the Democratic Party candidate for President?
Your concern is noted.
So, he really is recovered and back to normal then?
J R in WV
That’s the potent steroid Dexamethasone being given to Herr Trump while he recovers from the SARS2-Covid-19 disease. It can cause euphoria and psychotic symptoms as side effects. The euphoria is probably why Trump went home so quickly.
Is it ok for us to hang out at a blog that started out as a right-wing propaganda shop?
Her votes suck, but we’re stuck with her or Cornyn.
I agree with that. I’m just saying my hair doesn’t feel like it’s on fire for the last couple of days. I have had too many dark thoughts of what another four years would be like.
And the lesson they must learn needs to go past the election with a packed court (so the legislation the democrats pass isn’t arbitrarily slapped down, particularly voting rights ), some consequences for those who betrayed their country (sedition for DeJoy among others), and some real progressive legislation and a hell of a selling job to get it all done in a democracy where the other guy owns the megaphone.
That was then, this is now. People are capable of change for the better. See: Cole, John G.
Gin & Tonic
@burnspbesq: Quite a pedigree, though.
@Felanius Kootea: All the best for your book!
@cmorenc: Iran, as both MBS & Sheldon Adelson believe they have paid him for it already.
Here’s the whole story on Hagar’s voting if you want more than a snippet.
ETA: Might be paywalled.
@Baud: would I rather have Hegar who will vote with us 60% of the time or Cornyn who would tell us to eat a bag of dicks…. hmmmmm.
@Anoniminous: Does not surprise me.
She’s no Beto, that’s for sure. But she’s way better than Cornyn
Nancy Pelosi: Just win, baby!
@Anoniminous: well, we all make mistakes.
@piratedan: I prefer Hegar to the bag of dicks of course, but the 40% of the time our realistic choices vote against us still hurt
Any Democrat is better than any Republican though, at this point. I know I sound like an extremist saying this.
We’re still her on the gulf coast. Bohdi has been struggling so we took him to a local vet and the X-rays showed no break in his front leg but his mobility problems are not good. I can carry him out and he struggles but can still do his biz. They loaded him up on meds hoping to help him regain some strength in his legs. It got hot today but the hurricane wind has not arrived. I talked to one herd immunity guy on the beach this morning. He wasn’t wild eyed he just didn’t think anything else besides that and protecting the vulnerable was going to happen so we left it at that.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
So now the End Times(tm) are upon Trump of the Biggest Brain, what do you think is next? My bet is Trump will first attempt to charge Biden with attempting to legally overthrow the government in a voter assisted coup and then when that doesn’t work, claim the election is rigged anyway because it’s the states and not him who appoints the electors, fly off to Puerto Rico and ask for sanctuary.
The story says she changed her political outlook after 2012 and recognized that Obama’s term was a Golden Age. People can decide how much to believe it or care, but she basically admits she was wrong.
@randy khan: Being a coward? So you want them acting like some common Trumps? Not a care about their exposure to someone who has clearly been exposed, who according to all guidelines should be in quarantine?
@hueyplong: I think it helps her chances in TX. She won’t lose any D votes from that, but she may gain some R votes.
@Raven: My two dogs got old at the same time. That’s tough. Hoping for the best.
A bag o’ dicks truck on every corner!
@Anoniminous: If I lived & voted in Texas (which, thank the FSM, I don’t), I vote for a giant tarantula over Coryn.
Tacos and Dicks!
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Toast for the people brothers and sisters! Toast for the people!
I gave Hegar money, and I’m happy about it. I *might* get one D Senator! That’s a win!
@WaterGirl: Absolutely. Gotta win in some red states and you don’t do that by running Bernie Sanders there.
In a perfect world, the margin allows several senators to vote the other way at times as needed/desired.
@Baud: Yea, not the best plan but rarely do we plan it.
@Matt McIrvin: But not Barr’s.
Given the amount of hate poured on Green Party voters on this blog for not voting for the Democratic Party candidate forgiving a Democratic Party nominee for a Senate seat for not voting for the Democratic Party candidate is ………………
Those are from today, eh? After seeing the incoherent ones from last night I thought for sure todays headline would be “President taken from WH in straitjacket.”
@Baud: agreed, and tbf, the Democratic Party is not a mirror of Rose Twitter, I know that we’ve waxed poetic about Joe Manchin and even Kristin Sinema here at times for not voting for things we would prefer, but I’ll also admit that realistically we all have our “things” which may not be in the consensus. I have no problems if MJ is not as liberal as we would like, but also a Democrat winning a state wide election in Texas would be a big Biden deal and considering where she was six months ago in this election, I’m happy to have tossed cash her way.
I hope she takes the seat, if nothing else, she’s showing that Beto wasn’t a fluke and that the Dems are back as a concern in Texas.
LOL. Now I see what you were trying to do. But it doesn’t work. You can’t identify any Green Party member who became a Democrat and then won the nomination for an important seat. The closest you have is Bernie Sanders, and no one on even this blog has said we should replace Bernie with a Republican senator. But nice try.
Hint: If you hear Chinese, stop digging.
@Anoniminous: I have an extreme lack of caring.
It’s Texas. She’s on our team now. Good enough.
Oh, damn, I fear we’re going to fail to heighten the contradictions in Texas.
Well shoot, dagnabbit.
@Anoniminous: one group has a realistic chance to determine policy since they have a seat at the table, the other group debates about the existential existence of the table itself and questions the morality of sitting at it should it exist.
@Felanius Kootea: Good luck!!
Bad link fixed: “Don’t Be Afraid of Rabies.”
I early voted today. We got there just before it opened and could barely find a parking place. The whole process took about an hour. The guy in front of us was a real live black MAGA complete with red hat and no mask. He looked a lot like James Baldwin. They offered him a mask but he refused it. He was weak on social distancing. So was the Coastie in front of him. So we kept two x’s openin front of us in case either of them wandered back to where they belonged.
Those were the only two people in line not social distancing, as far as I could tell. Also only one other couple didn’t wear masks. The whole line was almost completely outside, under a tent.
If it keeps on being this crowded, using the drop box will be a problem because the parking lot was full, and the drop box was right beside the front door.
Are you implying that the Soviet shitpile mobster conman hasn’t been at war with American democracy for 4 years?
(I know you’re not. Dump should go bomb the shit out of Crawford ranch.)
No. No televised shitshows for me this year.
I usually check, but forgot this time
One of the aides assigned to carry the nuclear football tested positive.
Do they run the carrying case through the dishwasher now? (Irradiating it would be too, too ironic.)
Is Hegar supporting a 3rd party candidate for president and claiming that there is no difference between Biden and Trump like the Green Party did in 2000 with Nader and 2016 with Jill Stein?
Elizabeth Warren once voted Republican too. So what? This is 2020. The only question that matters today is whether Hegar and Warren support Biden or Trump. And then in 2021 whether they will caucus with the GOP or the Dems in the Senate. Is she likely to be a Joe Manchin type in the Senate? Probably. But she has come out in favor of most of the seminal parts of Biden’s platform from health care to voting rights.
@Sab: There isn’t a mask requirement at the polling place?
@Sab: What state and city?
Not going to watch but will, without shame, read comments here as to how things are going.
I don’t hate myself enough to watch these things.
@Anoniminous: If it helps, I am willing to condemn both Betty Cracker (Nader) and John Cole (Bush) for their votes in 2000. I am also willing to recognize that they changed their minds at some point. Feel better now?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Anoniminous: Plenty of other reasons to loath Greenies, like breaking bread with Vladimir Putin, nothing says a true progressive fighting for the environment like being buddies with the murderous dictator of some petro country.
@Steeplejack (phone): Oh good, I thought youtube was deleting political content now.
@Anoniminous: She’ll probably be a lot like Jim Webb, who was mostly okay in Virginia until they could get a real Democratic senator.
ICYMI, some very interesting news today. (My father would have loved to hear this!) – ScienceMag (from the AAAS):
This is really, really important for lots of people. Here’s hoping it holds up.
you know, his spawn showing up at the debate and doing the no-masking, rules don’t apply to us crap turns out to have been a very public error now that orange man has the covid. I’m pretty convinced their behavior is a component of these polls. And I don’t see how that support is coming back.
@Anoniminous: I could be wrong of course, but I’m pretty sure that how someone voted in a previous election doesn’t impact the outcome of a current election.
That’s what matters. Hopefully that addresses your implied question, and we can move on.
From the Thin Black Duke:
Remember folks, you don’t have to go to every argument you’re invited to, especially when the other guy has already made up his mind.
@Anoniminous: You’re embarrassing yourself.
@Kent: Akron OH. That’s why only one drop box. We are a very blue city surrounded by moderately red suburbs. DeWine is our governor, and our mayor has mandated masks, so mostly we all follow the rules in public for masks and social distancing.
Not to be too much of a Debbie Downer about this, but it’s worth noting that 4 years ago today the Access Hollywood p**** tape dropped and Hillary Clinton opened up a wide lead in the presidential race. And we all know what happened then. So the bottom line is: don’t get complacent! Run up the score!
@Anoniminous: You may need to go back and look at the vote totals in 2008 and 2012, vs. say, 2000 and 2016, to get a better idea as to why there’s a different reaction to Hegar’s votes vs. the reaction to 3rd party votes.
I know Adam has no use for Steve Schmidt, but this thread is very soothing to read.
@burnspbesq: inserts! Arch supports! All you need to rock the Converse is a pair of ridged arch supports and get moving. Pretty sure her shoe game is tight and right.
James E Powell
Bernie Bros argue that the only reason those states are red is that Democrats refuse to run True Left candidates. They are difficult people at times.
There’s currently a class action lawsuit against the manufacturer of faulty earplugs that were sold to the military.
Lots of young vets with ringing in their ears because of those bogus earplugs.
Ugh. That child separation policy. I know the Trump Family don’t care but Rosenstein and Sessions are marked for life. When your actions shock and appall even the low quality lawyers that Donald Trump hires you’re in a very dark place.
@James E Powell: If there is one thing for sure, it’s that Bernie Bros are the ones to consult about winning strategies.
@germy: We never had any fucking earplugs,
One of the Kennedy-Nixon debates was held remotely, with JFK in New York and Nixon in LA. So the technology to do so existed SIXTY YEARS AGO! Too late for Harris, but Biden would be totally within his rights to propose it to the Debate Commission.
@Raven: Neither did my father in WWII.
He didn’t really complain about ringing ears until he got old and started taking handfuls of aspirin every day for his arthritis.
@Kent: I think she will end up more like Tammy Duckworth. Heger seems pissed. I loved her ink text.
Meanwhile she is within striking distance of Cornyn. There are a bunch of Republican voters in Tx who hate Trump, and dislike his enablers. Even Cornyn is buying a clue on this fact. Republicans voters are the majority across the state. If Heger can get the Dem coalition plus get enough R voters comfortable with her she might win. Hell, she can do the Conga with the ghosts of Ma and Pa Ferguson if that will pull her over the winner’s line.
Pony, thy name is “Pure.”
Or “Pindejo”, I forget which.
Anybody else hunting around for what happened with the Chris Wray (FBI) announcement at 11:00? I grabbed a nap, expecting the world to be on fire when I woke up, only to find almost a suspicious silence.
I guess they found some ISIS people and captured them?
Wondering if this is one of those ‘audience of one’ things. Where the point is ‘oh yes, we see what you’re doing and we will come and find you, no matter where you run’ directed obviously at Trump but also anyone else thinking they can play treason and get away with it as much as they like. It was sure not interesting in the way I expected, or the way right wing twitter mobs expected.
@WaterGirl: Get bananas?
Sounds to me like you are using Hegar’s voting record to justify your own earlier choices. I’m voting in Texas and will happily pull the lever for her if it gets rid of Cornyn, no matter who she voted for in the past.
Imagine the conversation if she were running against Cruz.
My wife will be thrilled by this. She recently began suffering with tinnitus, and it’s driving her crazy.
I’ve had it for over 25 years, but apparently hers must be worse than mine.
@Omnes Omnibus: Have you seen the movie Greyhound yet? It was good, if at times way off reality wise. Thought of your Dad.
ETA. @Raven: oops. The movie comment was supposed to be for you….
@Josie: You vote for Hegar to secure a vote for Majority Leader Schumer. Everything else is trivial.
@Raven: Pudge and Sunny were two weeks apart. Pudge was only ten and Sunny viewed him as a little brat. Sunny was sixteen and after several days really started missing the brat. It took me months before I could talk about it without tears in my eyes.
Bohdi is probably suffering a loss also.
Undecided voter is undecided.
@Felanius Kootea: Best of luck with the book!
We haven’t received our ballots yet. Tapping my feet… the drop box is our local library, so as soon as we receive the ballots we will fill them out and drive them over there.
Just a reminder there are lots and lots of big grown up lawyers at the DOJ. Trained advocates. Hired and paid as public servants. They have agency and free will and they can protect the public from Barr’s corruption- they have the power to do that and they may be the only people who are positioned to do it in such a tight time frame where they know more than the public does about what goes on internally. The one and only question is whether they will. If they don’t and Barr makes a move we’re permitted to hold them accountable for inaction. They know the rules.
@Another Scott: Will licking a 9 volt battery do the trick?
Ken Bone is one of those who is vehemently against the two-party system. And he wants to have his chin tickled.
I’m talking about how it would be perceived, not the reality of the situation. I certainly recognize that Pence is being aggressively reckless (at a minimum) with other people’s health, but that has very little impact on the politics of the situation.
And I probably don’t need to mention that the reactions here and on other lefty blogs probably are not reflective of the feelings of the nation as a whole. There are a lot of people who treat prudence as cowardice, particularly if some precautions have been taken that appear to reduce the risk, whether or not they reduce it enough.
@Baud: I met her at a small reception- Shes an incredibly decent woman who cares about America’s institutions and citizens. I hope she wins
Well, I didn’t like the fact that Hillary Clinton was a Goldwater supporter in 1964, and although I didn’t vote for her in the primary in 2008 (partially because of that), I certainly voted for her in 2016. Heger’s prior votes will actually help her with a lot of voters in Texas who probably did the same. I think this is a coattails race – if Biden can take Texas, then I think Heger has a good chance as well. Biden will need a 10 point national win or so to do it, which is looking increasingly likely.
What’s amusing is expecting anyone to reconcile his or her preference for a Democratic candidate with his or her distaste for a Green Party candidate. No justification needed particularly in the case of Texas, where a Green Party-type candidate would be about as useful as a screen door in a submarine.
And since salted dicks seem to be on the menu, have a large bowl.
For living rent free in the Ugly Orange Noggin for so many years. “It’s a disgrace!”
@Leto: Build a bathtub large enough to drown the Republican Party.
@Kay: Agree — my guess? Most will, but boneheads like the US Attorney in Penn. who went full media about a corrected mistake, will take it on themselves to pee in the pool. It’s the appointed attorneys I fear most.
1.The bad actors are the people who malfunded the system.
2. People (notably here: Florida man and Florida woman) procrastinate. So that there are millions per hour trying to register on the last available day.
I suddenly started thinking of ‘Prairie Home Companion’.
@germy: obligatory “Why do these homosexuals keep sucking my dick?”
After the 1980 elections, I asked a Republican friend how he could countenance the election of Al D’Amato (R-Petty Corruption) to the Senate. His response was that D’Amato would vote for Bob Dole to be majority leader.
Agree. Plus a lot of real people are forced to deal with COVID risks every day. It’s unfortunate but true that’ll expect our candidates to take minimal risks in campaigning.
@germy: What kind of shit person can be a ‘bystander’ for this?
Mike in NC
We’re torn between watching the VP debate tonight or starting the final season of “Schitt’s Creek” on Netflix, which just dropped.
And the square footage just keeps getting bigger and bigger!
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: it’s the Collective for The People’s Breakfast! Those People’s Breakfast Collective idiots are splitters, fuck those assholes and their toaster agitprop!
@The Golux: does the sizzling sound overwhelm the ringing?
@Mike in NC: You do know you can do both, right?
do not want.
@randy khan: Yeah, Senators can’t vote on bills the Leader doesn’t take to the floor. Control of the floor is everything. It shouldn’t be, but it is.
@germy: Best choice for his quadrennial 15 minutes of fame?
@Omnes Omnibus: Nope, it’s funny I look at my basic yearbook and ziploa. I think they instituted them after 66 but we had nothing. M-14’s too.
This is long but I thought it was really good.
Conley is lying his ass of as usual about Covina’s state of health. If he has been free of symptoms for more than 24 hours, why haven’t we seen or heard him? Other than that he’s high as kite obviously.
Try to convince GOP state legislatures to overthrow the popular vote and install their own electors. This is based on delaying/refusing to count all the votes, also.
@Ken: somebody mentioned about evil dex, “those aren’t really side effects. Those are effects.”
James E Powell
That’s some mad doctor shit right there.
I personally don’t think he can talk without gasping for air. That’s the only thing that would shut him up.
He should rest up for the next debate- Biden isn’t going to give him an excuse to bail.
@germy: Ken Bone can go bone himself as far as I am concerned. (Whoever he may be)
bloomberg headline writers have very small one track minds: The stimulus hopes are in THEIR minds. Nobody else is fooled.
@Kay: We’ve always known Sessions was malevolent old racist but we thought Rosenstein was just a wimpish bureaucrat. Everything we’ve been told about him is that he was just too overwhelmed by Trump’s criminality and he was trying to find a way to deal with it. Now we know he’s as evil as Stephen Miller.
They’re working on a suppository.
Thanks, Kay. Bookmarked it and look forward to reading it when I can quiet myself and focus.
@Kay: I doubt think so either. Yesterday they were going to release a message and that didn’t happen. We’ll if he can get through a few sentences today with 10 minutes of oxygen between each one, so they can splice something together. Both shortness of breath and fatigue are of course symptoms of COVID. At least he won’t be affected by loss of taste.
@catclub: Yeah, I can’t help but think that any drug that comes with the warning “Do not operate vehicles or heavy equipment” should also warn “Do not operate countries.”
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@trollhattan: Exactly my plan and feelings!
Correction – it was Howard Baker then, not Dole.
@James E Powell:
i wonder if a similar effect can be achieved non-invasively, through the use of TMS
@trollhattan: Invented by Seth Boyden – there’s a statue of him in Newark’s Washington Park
A lot of what they have done is awful but that’s a whole new category. They had to stop the child separations due to international outrage and they did it- they recognized that it was outside acceptable norms. These two engineered it because they were afraid of Donald Trump, fake real estate investor and reality tv show conman? Jesus. That’s who made them abandon all decency? They’re cream puffs. They collapsed not under extreme pressure but under slight pressure. No one was torturing them or arresting them or going after their families- they did it because the President told them to and the worst thing he could have done to them was fire them. Big deal. It’s just not that big a threat. They both would have gotten other jobs.
@Raven: We were given ear plugs for the shooting range when I was in the service 75-78.
a thousand flouncing lurkers was fidelio
@Omnes Omnibus: Apparently you have to listen to The White Album played backward while licking the battery for a prolonged period.
Just One More Canuck
@Raven: I’m sorry I missed your post about Lil Bit. My condolences
@a thousand flouncing lurkers was fidelio: Glad I don’t have tinnitus then.
You know, I feel a bit sorry for Trump. I’m not shedding any tears for him, but just on a human level, think of the suffering.
He’s got a deadly disease, and if his doctors were honest, he knows his life is unlikely to *ever* be the same again.
He’s going to *lose*. Big time.
If he has any memory at all, he has a searing hot memory of Mueller saying that he certainly *could* be indicted, once he’s out of office.
Not even 6 asskissing SCOTUS judges could justify some BS about how former Presidents certainly can’t be convicted of criminal activity, including the campaign finance violation that happened *before* he was elected.
He’s the most powerful man in the world, in some ways, and yet, now he’s caught in a web of his own making, with horror today, and horror tomorrow, and no escape.
I know, some of you are *happy* and, wow, I can’t fault you! And all I’ll say is, remember your humanity to the point… well. There’s the joke about “A wouldn’t piss on B if B was on fire”. If that were true, that would be throwing away a vital bit of compassion, kind of the absolute *baseline* for compassion, and moreover, it would be throwing it away for the sake of Donald J Trump, who might not deserve a bladder full of fire fighting, but should still get it, if the bladder’s owner has at least the tiniest bit of compassion.
I hope there was enough humor value in that last bit that I didn’t come across *too* preachy. But the thing is, the goal is not, e.g., the entire destruction of the Republican Party as it stands; that’s the likely side effect of working together for justice – and justice requires compassion as a baseline.
I got the email from CA on Saturday October 3 that my ballot would mail on Monday October 5, and that email arrived while I was sitting at my computer looking at my ballot.
@NotMax: Didn’t Dense Pence request that they debate seated? Why was that? Can’t he stand up?
Is she still better than her opponent John Cornyn?
I believe she is. So if those are the two choices, I’d go with her.
I lived in Pennsylvania until about ten years ago, and during the forty years I voted there – what historians may call “The Age of Party Realignment” – there was a ‘progressive’ case to be made, IMHO, for voting for Arlen Specter against several of his opponents, for Thatcher Longstreth over Frank Rizzo, the younger Scranton over Casey for governor in ’90, and Sam Katz over John Street for Philadelphia mayor in ’99 (the last time I voted Rep)
Let me know if you want long-winded explanations of any of those and I will ‘refresh my memories’ and prepare them. You will, however, have to buy me several beers to keep my vocal cords lubricated thru it.
There’s also a possibility his deductions for haircuts were a tax code violation, as reported by electoral-vote. Would the Supreme Court try to overturn a Tax Court precedent for Trump?
She would be the junior senator from TX, she’s going to have to prove her worth, but she’s still the better of two choices. It is often the lesser of two evils and in this case she still beats the pants off her opponent.
Boris Rasputin (the evil twin)
@WaterGirl: Feel free to ask.
Damn, I’m in!!!!
My tinnitus is constant and has gotten a lot louder in the last year. Which is now year 17, as of this month. Good times.
I had to climb the mast and then out the yardarm, that’s about 60 ft off the water and 20+ from centerline. Without a harness, because there were no harnesses. My safety line was a rope I tied around my waist. And no, we didn’t have ear plugs either.
@Raven: I’ve never understood how you can protect the vulnerable and achieve a natural herd immunity. How do you know when they don’t need to be protected anymore? Margin for error seems pretty high there, especially with the numbers that would need to be infected and the time that would take.
For existing in Trump’s mind space.
Well, technically Schumer could offer a motion to proceed to consider a bill. But then he would need 60 votes just to get any bill to the floor for consideration.
@James E Powell: He should have tried Homer’s crayon up the nose.
J R in WV
Now I regret sending her the contributions we have made in that race!!!
J R in WV
@J R in WV:
OK, having read many well thought comments, I disagree with myself one more time!!! Even a crummy Democrat is better than any Republican is a truism. Thanks everyone for setting me straight.
Sometimes I AM confused, other times I am only cornfused.
J R in WV
We had imitation protective equipment, hard hats like the free batting helmets little kids get at a minor league game, mickey mouse earmuffs that I wore while running a deck grinder to remove the 6 layers of paint on a USN ship’s steel.
No ear plugs, ever.
No respirator for the fire room full of asbestos dust…
No, Doctor, I don’t think I have mesothelioma, but I could have for all the US Navy cared about asbestos…
J R in WV
Our doctor ( who is also a professional musician! ) suggested listening to classical music at bedtime. Now I have made CDs with MP3s of multiple albums of classical music, mostly pretty restful works, and they will play from bedtime until late into the morning.
Doc was once hired to sing Ave Maria at a destination wedding in Dominica, flew down, sang at the wedding, went to fly home and the Dominican border control guy said “Where did you hide the dope? NO ONE flys here for an overnight honestly!” and Doc said I flew in to sing Ave Maria at a wedding. Guard said “OK, lets hear it!” right there in the airport.
So Doc sang it, the whole thing, for like the 243rd time, and the guard let him go. No dope smuggler can sing it like that, he said.
Very good read, although I am exhausted after finishing it. Really drives a stake through the heart of the “economic anxiety” argument.
@J R in WV: No regrets! No matter how she voted back then, we need her in the Senate instead of that piece of shit.
Usually Rasmussen’s “closing speed” doesn’t kick in for another 2-3 weeks.
@James E Powell: My husband got a deep brain stimulation about 15 years ago to treat cluster headaches at the Cleveland Clinic. They ran a wire down from his brain down the side of his face and neck to the battery pack in his chest. It didn’t help, and afterwards whenever he had a headache his teeth also hurt.
A procedure looking for a purpose. His regular GP advised him not to do it beforehand. Also, the cost of it raised my company’s insurance rates so high they had to switch carriers to crappy insurance. One of the reasons I don’t trust the Cleveland Clinic.
@Raven: thinking about your darling Bodhi. My adored Sirius developed a limp. Took him to the vet, leg xrays were taken, nothing. They sent us home with painkillers. Weeks went by, he wasn’t improving. Back to the vet, where I discovered that the xrays had not included his shoulder, where we discovered an aggressive cancer. Inoperable. This story probably has no bearing on your situation, Raven- but make sure his xrays are complete. Good luck to all of you.
@Baud: Raz reverting to reality this early is probably a sign that he doesn’t expect a lot of business from Thugs going forward. Maybe he’s readying a catapult to launch him over toward whatever flotsam bobs up from the broken bits of the Global Oligarchy Putsch. One can only hope (while doing everything in one’s power to sink them).
Or just jerk the turnout model around to bias it toward Thugs (with the lame excuse that “they’re more consistent voters”).
I don’t want anyone cutting into my brain either, but. I’m the proud owner of a 6mm aneurysm and if it decides to do anything but sit there and not move cutting into me seems like the least of my worries.
My long time Marine buddy never saw an m-16 till he got to Vietnam on the eve of Tet. And then he carried it loaded for 13 months without firing a shot at Chu Lai.
@J R in WV: Reminds me of a story from the Battle of the Bulge, in which many US soldiers were separated from their units as they retreated. The rumors flew that mixed in amongst them were German infiltrators in US uniforms who spoke colloquial American English and were tasked to wreak havoc behind the lines.**
It was the Army’s job to catch the latter and send the former back to their units. One such process involved a lieutenant who interrogated the allegedly-lost soldier while a major listened from the other side of a partition.
**Among other things they were supposedly aiming to assassinate Eisenhower. Never got near him – but the infiltrators, organized by Otto Skorzeny, did screw up some road signs & cause other minor problems.
@LongHairedWeirdo: The compassion and sympathy can wait until after Election Day, when it is determined whether the compassion and sympathy is needed by Trump or by America!