Trigger warning: I’m fairly hardboiled, but this one got to me…
There is a real human toll to President Trump's failed leadership.
We can't forget that. pic.twitter.com/03ajrVUQh1
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) October 25, 2020
Since both my and the Spousal Unit’s natal families are widely scattered, our Big Annual Holiday Gathering for the last forty years or so has been a ‘hobbit bloat’ where the friends we made at Tolkien Fellowship / SCA / SF Society college clubs would get together, alternately in the Hoboken and Boston areas. That’s not happening this year, of course. And even though I didn’t always appreciate the sometimes forced cameraderie, it’s making me a little sad now, which puts me in the same place as… well, most of us.
From Joel Achenbach at the Washington Post, “As holidays near, the coronavirus is spreading rapidly, putting families in a quandary about celebrations and travel”:
Barbara Alexander’s Christmas tradition is to drive 2½ hours to the 40-acre farm her parents bought seven decades ago in southeastern North Carolina. It’s a big affair: 35 family members arrive by Christmas Eve.
This year, she is thinking: wait till next year. She’ll stay home in Durham, N.C., with her husband, teenage son and 96-year-old mother, Marble Dudley. As a physician and the president-elect of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, Alexander is fully aware of the risks of holiday gatherings in the middle of a pandemic and the vulnerability of her nonagenarian mother.
“Covid doesn’t care that it’s a holiday, and unfortunately covid is on the rise across the nation,” she said. “Now is not the time to let our guard down and say it’s the holiday and let’s be merry. I think we need to maintain our vigilance here.”…
The government’s top doctors have said they believe the recent national spike in infections has largely been driven by household transmission. Superspreader events have gotten a lot of attention, but it’s the prosaic meals with family and friends that are driving up caseloads.
This trend presents people with difficult individual choices — and those choices carry societal consequences. Epidemiologists look at the broad effect of a contagion, not simply the effects on individuals. Thanksgiving, for example, is an extremely busy travel period in America. The coronavirus exploits travelers to spread in places where it has been sparse or absent.
“I am nervous about Thanksgiving,” said Andrew Noymer, an epidemiologist at the University of California at Irvine. “I’m nervous because I know what happens when you multiply the risks by millions of households.”
The scientists are not telling people to cancel their holiday plans, necessarily. But they are urging people to think of alternative ways to celebrate. They do not say it explicitly, but they are encouraging a kind of rationing of togetherness…
Site should be behaving again…
Ruckus
Other than cousins spread far and wide, I have no genetic family to visit. And most of those I have no idea where they are, because everyone that has kept track has fallen off the radar. I do email/talk to a couple of cousins that live within 150 miles but everyone else is much farther away and I have no contact info.
Eric U.
I’m sure I don’t actually understand the quandary. “Oh, but we all have to go to grandma’s for Thanksgiving.” No the hell you don’t
I wish the local government had canceled Halloween, but I guess I’m putting a bowl out by the road under the light and if the kids don’t take it, I’ll leave it for the bears.
dmsilev
Talking with my parents yesterday, we officially cancelled our Thanksgiving plans. I was going to visit, but the trends in Massachusetts are starting to look frightening, and none of us wanted to take the risk. At least the airlines have cut out change fees for the time being.
Alison Rose
The thing that frustrates me…maddens me, really…is like, no it’s NOT a “difficult choice.” Does it suck to not see your family and loved ones when you normally would? Yes. But……………….in what world is that on par with numerous of those loved ones getting sick and possibly dying? I truly can’t understand people who act like one single year of not spending a few days with people in the same room is unacceptable and they absolutely have to do it, risks be damned.
If you love your family so much you can’t even comprehend the idea of missing one fucking Thanksgiving dinner with them, I would think you’d love them enough not to fucking kill them.
Benw
We made the decision not to let the kids trick or treat this year. Cases are up! People have shown they won’t take it seriously and could come to the door to hand out candy unmasked or with symptoms! It’s crazy!
We’ve planned an awesome stay-at-home Halloween, but FFS could even one news network report that Halloween is fucked for sane people and it did not have to be!
JaySinWA
@Eric U.:
Libertarian!
https://boingboing.net/2020/10/19/libertarians-exit-pursued-by-bears.html
dmsilev
@Benw: The city here has been discouraging trick-or-treating. Not sure how many people will listen. There are some blocks that traditionally have done large-scale Halloween events.
Nicole
Our ten-year-old told us he doesn’t feel comfortable Trick or Treating this year. My heart breaks for him (although I think he made the right call). And we’re already planning to stay in NYC for Thanksgiving and we’ll see when Christmas comes, but I’m not optimistic. Ugh. This sucks.
RaflW
Shoot, I can’t find it now, but a jewish blogger wrote a great piece maybe a week ago about the things learned from zooming the sequence of High Holy Days this year. His thrust was, yes, it works far better than nothing to do video gatherings for Thanksgiving (and Christmas, if that’s your thing).
Be safe. Stay away from each other physically. But observe the rituals. And see your people. He suggested that folks cook the foods you would typically have. Maybe, esp if family is just across town, you can so a split pot-luck, with careful delivery. One person does turkey and gravy, another does sides, and a third fam does deserts. Portion them, run around to each other’s stoops a few hours before meal time, and then heat it up, savor the smells and flavors, and gather everyone for a FaceTime.
Skipping the traditions makes it worse, he suggests. You think you’ll feel deflated to have a whole pumpkin pie just for two. But eating takeout and watching netflix will feel far more hollow.
So, make a plan. Reach out to family (chosen or bio or a blend) and have a celebration. We’ve seen my favorite cousin much more this year than we would in a typical year. Yeah, it’s video. But we lover her! and her husband! And it is fun to see them and swap stories.
Shakti
@Benw: Our local municipality is doing a Halloween drive by parade through the park in which baskets of candy will be handed out to children being driven in cars. It’s the same time during which kids would be walking around the neighborhood anyways so…. I’m not sure any kids are going to come by.
It’s a little depressing.
Hoppie
Fortunately, we have only one child, a son, who lives several miles from us. Holidays are easy.
Benw
@dmsilev: same here. It sucks but just skip it this year. Sad to say but I don’t trust some people in my neighborhood enough that they’re being careful around the kids
Jay
So, out of quarantine. Back at work, one day.
Diaz came in to work yesterday just to thank me. Black mold. Sick kids,
Had walked him through abatement and mitigation a month ago. Also liability and Landlord/Tenant Law because his Landlord refused to do anything.
Kids are in Children’s Hospital, doing well, mold gone.
Saw T, had dinner, slept together with her and the cats. Had The Pancakes and good bacon, strong coffee at 4am. Facetime ain’t the same as being there when you love someone.
Then, Strathcona Park Unhoused Encampment at 5 am.
Did the usual, open wounds, stds, athletes foot, back injuries, checkups, addictions, services.
Get told, by a bunch of the unhoused, that there is a family holed up in a bag assed RV that they havn’t seen in more than a couple days. A lot of the unhoused, buy barely drivable RV’s then park them. They are worried. It is a community despite what people say about them, abought 9am.
So Sam and I go over. I talk my way in. I used the Food Bank/Services, as an excuse to gain entry and start a conversation, they didn’t want to let me in, everybody has Covid, were trying to quarantine, and because they can’t work, are low on food and money. I told them that it’s okay, I am there to help and am a medic. I get Sam to stay outside, letting her know it’s Covid in a sealed tight airspace. They let me in.
Dad is 74/62 on the pulse oxy, with a 102 temp. Mom, pretty close, ditto for 2 of 3 kids.
Both mom and dad were working full time, Walmart, Amazon, Ryans. No money for cell phones or internet. Unwilling to put anybody else at risk by yelling out for help.
3rd kid, Insullah, (sp) , ringlets, 6 years old, is in respiratory distress and arrhythmia, temp 106, with a pulse oxy of 116/ 41. Twitching in the bed, soaked with sweat. So CPR and ice. Try to minimize brain damage.
Sam, god I love her, calls 9/11 for the whole family.
30 minutes or so until the ambulances showed up, Got pulse back, some breathing, kept it going.
Kkkops show up, like they do, Sam tells them to fuck off. Soon as she says Covid, they runn O F T.
Ambulances show up, talk to Sam, suit up in “space suits”, family is evaced to Saint Pauls and VGH.
Inshullah is put on 02 right away, right in the ambulance. Must be hard, semi conscious, just a child, have a tube shoved down your throat. No family around, just strangers.
Back in quarantine for me.
Sam said that they all seem to be stable so far, so big win so far.
We are gonna get them cell phones and wifi. My buddy Steve, with the Mac Museum in his basement is all ready working on reviving dead laptops for them, so the kids can go to school remotely. Our cleaning crew has already deep cleaned the RV, and the DERA Food Bank is stocking them up for when they come home.
Kevin and his crews, ( tuners) are going to fix up the RV so it’s safe and drivable. Jubalee RV is fixing the RV systems.
Good day, shit day, fuck Covid.
Edmund Dantes
First time in over 20+ Years Since graduation high school my family won’t be together for “Dante’s” family Christmas. Sometimes Christmas Day, sometimes weekend before or after, but at least some of us always got together at the sibling that lived at the center of our family.
first time I won’t be going.
Benw
@Shakti: it sucks! I’m glad your town is offering a safe alternative but it won’t be Halloween; but the kids will be safer
Nelle
We are lining up little paper cups with candy on the edge of our deep porch. We’ll be inside the storm door to wave.
Starfish
@Nicole: Mine is the same. He wants none of it.
Benw
@Jay: Damn, Jay, props. Be safe and take care of yourself too
Chetan Murthy
I see my mom once a week: thru the third-story window of the apartment where she’s quarantining with my sister and her BF. She almost never comes down, but the one time she did, and we were six feet apart, we didn’t hug. And I see every week, when I deliver groceries. If these people actually cared about their elderly relatives, they’d drive all the way over, leave them something, or do some chores, say hi thru the window, and then drive back home.
Jesus, just save your parents’ lives already, Americans. It’s not hard.
NotMax
Melancholy, I guess*, that department store Santas have been 86’d.
*Even as a kidlet my disdain for attending activities involving numbers greater than one was in full ripeness.
Sab
@Jay: Wow. So Canada isn’t the perfect wonder of the North that we have been told about? (Grandmother’s mother was from Canada. So were all gandmother’s cousins and their kids. Normal people, some good, some bad. Like everywhere.)
NotMax
As for family holiday gatherings –
shudder– a not insignificant driving force in the decision to relocate 6000 miles away. Cannot remember a single one not including a main course of acrimony. Attaining drinking age was a godsend when it came to enduring those and maintaining at least a veneer of comity.dmsilev
@NotMax: Did you read about the Trump admin’s tentative plans to recruit mall Santa Clauses (Santas Clause? Santa Clausi?) to push whatever excuse for a COVID vaccine they can come up with?
Hoppie
@NotMax: Je suis d’accord.
Geoboy
As regards Halloween, on the other hand, we’ve been wearing masks and eating candy for seven months now, so it’s not like we haven’t already had our fill.
RobertDSC-Mac Mini
@Hoppie:
*dusts off high school French*
“I am in agreement”?
NotMax
@dmsilev
To the tune of Here Comes Santa Claus:
Here comes Santa Claus, here comes Santa Claus
Stay six feet away
.
Yarrow
Was just talking about this tonight with a neighbor who has young kids. They’re not going to trick-or-treat and the kids are fine with it. Another neighbor said the local authorities have asked people not to trick-or-treat because cases are rising. That neighbor was going to put candy out in a bowl at the end of the front walk but has now decided against even doing that.
Nutmeg again
Yep. My only kid lives in a sane country, in Europe, so I won’t see her for any holidays this year, and for the foreseeable future. At one point we might have met up in Tirana (Albania) but even that might be out, now. And who wants to go to the only country that will have us?
I would otherwise gather with my sister’s family, and may still–but there’s a brand new spork in the drawer–first grandchild of the new generation–and many olds in my niece-by-marriage’s family. So, I’m waiting on word. I’m more concerned about keeping them safe, really, although I don’t go out but to the store every now and then. I will have voted (!!) and who knows how that will go.
Hoppie
@RobertDSC-Mac Mini: Would be it. Congrats. I am often of accord, but life is complicated.
Mary G
@Jay: Bless you for being one of the helpers. At least you got one night and a good breakfast. Does your job pay you while you quarantine?
Jay
@Sab:
In Vancouver, ( the Lower Mainland) , there is a massive shortage of affordable housing, EI and Welfare have due to decades of Con’s in office, lagged far behind compared to inflation, and minimum wages have been stagnant.
Like the US, a retail job that 40 years ago was a good Middle Class job with benefits and a pension, is now a minimum wage job, so we could stay “competitive” in NAFTA.
Still, medical is universal.
Adding to the problems is that Vancouver has become a “global city”, with 2nd and 3rd homes for Billionaires and Millionaires, or just people buying housing and leaving it empty, because the 1 bedroom condo/apartment you buy for $750k this year, will be worth $1.1 million two years from now.
One effect of this is that the affordable housing in the DERA, has over the past 20 years, gone from 98 blocks, to 18. And I am living in a 28 story Condo building that sits on the site of a 1 story Safeway. There is a 38 story building going up across the street where as few as 2 years ago, was a Chevron Gas Station and a 7/11.
Another Scott
@dmsilev: re: Flying
CAUTION – THIS IS A TWEET AND MAY NOT BE ACCURATE.
I assume we’ll eventually get more data about situations like these.
People are sick of COVID-19 and all it entails. But it’s not over. There’s still too much we don’t know. We have to be vigilant.
(via notlarrysabato)
Cheers,
Scott.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Another Scott: the lack of stories about planes, and airports, as super spreaders has been a bafflement to me, I confess
Jay
@Mary G:
The Corp gave us 48 days “sick time” for all full time, 24 days for part timers, for Covid.
but because the “Big Corporate” Charity is the unhoused, my Managers are arguing to Corporate that this quarantine, shouldn’t be “sick time”, but instead wages. They are also arguing that the Corp should pay costs, food and lodging.
We will see what the result is.
Doesn’t matter really, a family is alive, so,…..
mrmoshpotato
@Alison Rose:
Exactly!
I saw my parents over the summer for a few minutes outside because I needed to borrow a phone charger. And they live a half mile from me!
All of this whining about “I can’t do this. I can’t do that.” Well Bucko, there’s a deadly contagious respiratory virus going around!
Emma from FL
@Jay: If I were a believer I would tell you your name is inscribed in the book of those whom God loves. Please take care of yourself.
NotMax
@mrmoshpotato
“That casserole Aunt Griselda insists on bringing every year is enough to make Satan retch. It should do quite the number on a puny virus.”
//
mrmoshpotato
@NotMax:
They know what they did.
mrmoshpotato
@NotMax: No clue what you’re referencing.
jl
@Another Scott: Thanks, very interesting. The tweet links to a peer reviewed article, which seems well done. A problem with implications for travel, though, is that most of the cases on the plan had contact with each other before the flight. One group of cases appears to have been a family. So unclear how much transmission was on the flight versus before the flight. The person, a science reporter for Nature, who tweeted the paper also noted this. Seems to me from a first read that there may be enough info in the paper to make an educated guess, not clearly spelled out. I think needs a close read with a paper and pencil handy.
Until a very close reading, not sure this answers the question of whether household or long exposure among groups before flight, airport, or in-flight transmission is main culprit.
One thing I noted is that after the flight, almost all the post-flight cases came from large group gathering superspreader events. More evidence that controlling superspreader events is critical to getting the bug under control.
Big lessons for US: try to do contact tracing like this, and do something to stop large group superspreader events, which I don’t think anyplace in US has done that adequately.
If anyone knows of a state that has control of worksite superspreader events, let me know. But look at the outbreaks post flight, and the reasons should be obvious why GOP plan to protect employers from liability at worksite outbreaks, and force people back to work while exposed for sick is a recipe for even more disaster.
jl
@mrmoshpotato: NotMax’s Thanksgivings are hazardous due to very bad cooks in the family? So the NotMax Thanksgiving is safer on all fronts this year?
mrmoshpotato
Methinks the traitorous orange Soviet shitpile has grown tired of playing President.
Kattails
@Jay: That is an amazing story all the way through, including the homeless who alerted you to the problem. My level of outrage is so high anymore; I want to be able to send blessings with the same force that I have to hold back curses, if that makes any sense.
Read recently that productivity is so high that a minimum wage job should be paying $22 an hour now. Katie Porter and her white board grilling Pharm execs. who defend their multi-million dollar salaries with how helpful they are to their companies was a sight to see. As you said. Retail jobs that can’t possibly support you, all to sell the cheapest of cheap goods made by slave labor.
Another Scott
@Jay: You’re a good man, Jay. Please take care of yourself. You can’t save the world in a week – pace yourself!
Fingers crossed!
Cheers,
Scott.
mrmoshpotato
@jl: Seems like a reference to something. Probably not a line of dialogue from Famous Boners though.
Jay
@Kattails:
I aways use “unhoused”, because there are empty houses, condos, apartments, that could house them all.
Another big effect, is that here, we had places like Woodridge, that housed people with mental health issues. Decades of the “drive to the bottom” saw those facilities understaffed with minimum wage employees and no mental health care.
That resulted in brutal conditions, abuse, lawsuits.
To make it “all go away”, ( scandal after scandal) the Cons shut the facilities down, kicked them out on the street, and gave them a welfare check.
jl
@mrmoshpotato: When I was growing up, there were some hazardous Holiday casserole artists in my family. I was triggered by the comment.
Sister Golden Bear
For my witchy and/or pagan sisters, as well as anyone else who‘s hurting right now and needs some major goddess energy (from one of my favorite local artists).
“Beware; for I am fearless, and therefore powerful.” — Mary Shelley
mrmoshpotato
@jl:
Haha
Jay
@Another Scott:
one day at a time,
SectionH
Should I be more WooWoo Family can’t do T’giving together, worst horrid thing evar blah blah blah? Ancient shit some of the family tried to inculcate in me says so, but Sorry, did not take.
My message is Get over yourselves If the worst thing that’s happening to you right now is you can’t over-cook-and-serve for one time in late November. Sit down and shut up.
Wow, I think I should pre-apologize but dammit. Ok: it’s not you guys, really, it’s the assumptions.
Jay
@Emma from FL:
I’m not gonna not help, ever, when people need help.
used to be gas runs, fixing flats, random,
now it’s organized.
NotMax
@jl
“More of my famous hamana casserole, dear? You barely took enough to taste it on your first helping.”
:)
(Not something which ever, ever, ever appeared on the family table, happy to say.)
cain
@Jay:
Doing the work of angels. Thanks for sharing this with us.
cain
I was reading that a lot of it like rich Asian industrialists and the like. They go around and purchase homes around the world but especially in places like Vancouver and San Francisco.
Yes, there is nobody living in them. It’s a crying shame. I”m sorry the housing situation is so bad. The housing situation is terrible in all the major cities down the west coast.
cain
@Another Scott:
We just don’t have the discipline those who are extroverts – it is really hard on them. Until we can get a vaccine it’s going to be a nightmare. Some folks just give up and want to just live their lives. But they are putting other people at risk not themselves.
CaseyL
I bought a tiny bag of miniature candy bars. We’ve never gotten trick-or-treaters in all the years I’ve lived in the townhouse complex, but now we have at least two small children living here.
I don’t think they’ll be trick or treating, though. I don’t think kids do that anymore, and haven’t for years. They go to parties (not this year) or shopping centers (not this year). All controlled, no random encounters with strangers.
I should ask my neighbors what, if anything, they have planned for their kids.
gene108
@jl:
From what I have read in the media, contact tracing is most effective in reducing or preventing community spread only when the transmission is much, much lower than anywhere in the USA right now.
We can still try contact tracing, but it probably will not do as much good here as it will do in countries that have controlled their coronavirus spread.
I think the only thing that can save us is a real hard lockdown, as in the cops fine you for walking down the street without a mask, or any other violation of coronavirus restrictions like they are doing in other countries. Anything else will not be effective.
Kattails
@Jay: Canada? Shite. I noted your use of “unhoused” and thought it was colloquial but now understand that it’s a statement.
I know someone who worked for years in residential homes in the US for people who were severely mentally challenged–that is, barely able to care for themselves– up to higher functioning but with psychological diagnoses. It can be a rewarding, frustrating, even scary job (as when a caregiver has to do a physical takedown of someone bigger than they and who’s off their meds). Shocking that it should pay the bare minimum; my friend certainly did better in their job.
Kattails
@Sister Golden Bear: There have been a lot of owls around here lately, I always take it as something being afoot.
Also note for those who follow these things that Covid Barrett got rushed through during a Mercury retrograde cycle. Generally the advice is don’t make major purchases at these times, the thing will not perform as expected :-)
NotMax
@Kattails
A lot of rodents.
Brachiator
Halloween (and Day of the Dead), Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Years. People will have to make some smart choices to help try to fight this thing. Most of my family are in Texas, and my sister often hosts a big Thanksgiving dinner. I will have to check with her to see what plans are for this year. But I will not be flying out for a visit this year.
I heard a story on NPR that supermarkets are mostly still offering 18 pound turkeys because the breeding season was in place long before the pandemic hit. So there will be lots of hints and recipes for leftovers. Some turkeys will be killed and prepared for sale when they reach 13 pounds, but there will be some additional costs to store the birds before they are sold.
I would sometimes go out with friends to a Chinese restaurant and then go to see a movie for Christmas Day, but this is out of the question this year.
Any companies having Zoom Christmas parties for remote workers?
And I suppose that Santa has redone his workshop to allow for social distancing for the elves, who are all wearing masks.
Amir Khalid
@Brachiator:
I hope the workshop will be subject to inspection to ensure compliance to standard operating procedures for Covid-19 safety.
jl
@Brachiator: I think there should be real concern about household gatherings over the Holidays. The resurgence in France seems to be mainly from household and small social contacts (with very lax mask regulations). But…
” The government’s top doctors have said they believe the recent national spike in infections has largely been driven by household transmission. ”
I don’t know how anyone could be very confident about it for the US. Our contact tracing is not good enough. There is evidence of a continuing problem with worksite superspreader events, but these are not being tracked back to cross county commuting patterns, households, etc.
Even so, some countries have been able to set out very clear public health guidelines for small group gatherings. I don’t know of any in the US, just vague worrying and vaguer advice. If anyone knows of an authoritative concise set of guidelines or checklist, let me know.
jl
@gene108: Sure, but we need to start developing the capacity now, no point in waiting until the lockdown or whatever more stringent measure that is used to reduce prevalence.
Also, contact tracing is a very important research tool that is needed to understand distribution of transmissibility after infection, structure of different types of outbreaks, etc.
So, I think you have a good point, but need to start developing contact tracing capability asap anyway.
Brachiator
@cain:
and…
This reminds me of a Southern California real estate story I ran across earlier this year.
The home previously had belonged to Philip Chandler, a son of former Los Angeles Times publisher, Harry Chandler. The family owned the mansion from the 1940s until the early 1970s.
The home had seven bedrooms. A lot of room for a kid going to college, even if the college is USC.
NotMax
@Amir Khalid
The mouth and nose covering parts of the masks are easy. It’s replacing all the straps with ones to fit over those elf ears that was the stumper.
;)
JPL
@Jay: You are doing amazing work and please stay safe.
Brachiator
@jl:
It’s not just lax mask regulations. People tend not to wear masks at home when they have friends, family and guests visiting. In my neighborhood I saw a family celebrating a birthday. There were folks in a range of ages, from small children to elderly relatives. Maybe 15 people, but no one was wearing masks.
I also saw a group of about 8 guys having lunch together. Even though they were sitting outside, they were not wearing masks while eating. They arrived in separate vehicles and wore masks when they got out of their cars and entered the restaurant to order food.
California health officials keep warning about community spread, but I think people are unclear about best practices and some pandemic fatigue is setting in.
When I read BBC stories about containment efforts, I see that they try to be specific about social bubbles, the number of people who can meet up, and restrictions on meetings between different households. I don’t see this level of specificity in the US.
Los Angeles County health officials recently released the following guidelines.
To prevent future spread of COVID-19, Davis reminded Angelenos that it is best to celebrate at home with your household. However, if you are going to host or attend a private gathering, it must adhere to the following protocols:
-Held outdoors with physical distancing between households
-Limited to 3 households, including the host and all guests
-Cloth face coverings being worn when not eating or drinking
-Food served in single-serve disposable containers
-Last for two hours or less
ETA: This guidance is unclear on the maximum number of people who should be included.
Link to the official LA County news release here.
Jay
@NotMax:
the owl called my name,….
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Heard_the_Owl_Call_My_Name
Mel
@Sister Golden Bear:
Thanks. Lovely, and much needed.
Jackmac
@Jay: what a harrowing day. You’re doing the Lord’s work. Stay safe.
Brachiator
@jl:
I was looking at a BBC News Story about the “rule of six” regarding visiting households during the pandemic.
It starts simple, but gets insanely complicated once you start adding tiers.
Jay
@JPL:
thank you, but I have a crap job, with crap pay, but because, I have 20+ years of experience with the trades, I get to help people in making the right choices, both Civies and Contractors.
on my “off days”, I am a “Street Medic”, from unhoused camps to BLM.
opiejeanne
@Jay: Kudos to you. Thank you for sharing your day with us. So scary for that family, especially the child who was so sick.
Martin
So, I’m doing an all nighter – winds supposed to pick up at any point here.
It looks like Kavanaugh has brought USSC in line with Trumps desire to end counting on election night and have the networks call the election. I’m guessing that all networks are not created equal on this. So there’s going to be enormous pressure on Fox to call it for Trump, even if nobody else does, and he’ll take his victory lap, and it’ll immediately go into litigation at the state levels and seek control of the electors.
jl
@Brachiator: Thanks that is great info. Some attempts at specific guidance by SF Bay Area county public health depts probably backfired in the failed reopen. Social bubbles, pods, friend budgets applied to everyone in society are unstable, and can increase the effective reproduction number from 0.8 to 1.2. They work best for, say, families with small kids who need social support. Edit: good research on it says bubbles should not even be attempted when effective R > 0.8, except for relatively small subpopulations, and SF Bay wasn’t nearly that good at the first reopening attempt. No sign that CA DPH was even aware of it.
In countries in Europe that have maintained good control until now, despite the resurgence in some countries, there would be
precise rules for maximum number of people, and clear direction (like a step by step recipe) on how to do the social distancing rules during the gathering. I’ve never seen anything about limits on how many households can attend a gathering.
The SF County ‘tip sheet’ is weird. Lot’s of neurotic and obsessing stuff about outdoor gatherings, then a rather high maximum cap for prevalence levels this high. Nothing I can see about indoor. Which I find very odd. If anyone sees something better on their website, please let me know.
Jay
@opiejeanne:
they are doing okay, so far, so, worth it,
We make connections, a bunch of ways. Hopefully, these last.
jl
@Brachiator: Forgot to say that England’s rule of 6 is a variation on a common rule.
A very common rule is the 2+2 rule for indoors gatherings. That is shorthand for something that goes like, using Estonia as an example:
Keep 2 meters separation,
If cannot do that, only 2 people within 2 meters at time for less than 15 minutes
10 person maximum for typical residential and office rooms
100 square meters per person for lager indoor spaces.
I think Estonia added masks indoors, except when eating, when the European resurgence started. I’ll have to go check.
Edit: I think key to good control in Estonia is that these rules must be observed everywhere, home gatherings, non-retail worksites, retail, everywhere. You see the the basic rules plopped into regulations for every economic sector opening back up.
opiejeanne
@Martin: I hope you can stay safe tonight.
I am so angry right now about this USSC nonsense that I could spit. At the same time I’m suddenly having a lot of trouble fighting despair.
7 days. Just 7 days to go. I hope it’s a blow-out for Biden.
jl
@Brachiator: The thing about residential and restaurant and small social gathering as main source of outbreaks is that these are often channels for transmission, not the original source of the outbreaks.
I’ve been pissed off at some popular articles on outbreak in Madrid, because the reporter gawks at outbreaks in restaurants and coffee shops and nothing else. But Spain got into trouble with superspreader outbreaks in Catalonia when employers pressured employees to work while sick. It spread through Catalonia and Aragon via bars and nightclubs. Then it hit Madrid at restaurants. Admittedly the restaurants had very high occupancy limits, and very lax mask regulations.
But still, to me, the articles seem sensatonalistic and uninformative, as in: Disease! Restaurant outbreaks RESURGANCE! OMG OMG OMG! Hard choices, tough measures! doom doom doom!
Edit: in SF Bay, there is a big problem with non-retail worksite outbreaks and cases go across county lines via commuting patterns, then household outbreaks in low income high density housing. CA doesn’t have contact tracing capacity to connect them, despite promises 4 or 5 months ago that capability would be developed. At least that is what researchers outside the CA public health department are saying.
JPL
@opiejeanne: I’m still hopeful that Joe will win, but Kavanaugh’s opinion has caused me some concern.
jl
@NotMax: Need to work on the name. Banhama. Hambana, Hamahana?
jl
@jl: I meant 10 square meters!
Dan B
@Jay: What a story! Thanks for what you do.
Bruce K
I think I may be crazy.
I haven’t been within five thousand miles of the person I love most in the world since January 5. We were going to be together in May, or she was going to visit me in the summer, but everything got wiped out by COVID.
I got a voucher for the flight I had to cancel, my leave from work went back into the bank, but we’ve got a use-it-or-lose-it leave policy at work, and … I broke down and made the plan. I’ve got two passports, access to 24-hour turnaround testing here, no shortage of protective equipment.
I may be insane … but if the plan holds together, I may actually be in Baltimore for Thanksgiving. My very cautious better half is on board with this plan.
Sorry if I’m setting a bad example. But five thousand miles apart for an entire year … was too much.
Sloane Ranger
I used to spend Christmas with my brother when he was alive but since he died I’ve gone away for the period with a company specialising in holidays for single people. Not this year
My closest relatives are a cousin and his wife, who are planning a quiet Christmas together and an Uncle whose wife is recovering from chemotherapy, so no guests there either.
I am planning to spend Christmas home alone. The problem will be finding a suitable central dish that’s small enough. I am currently thinking about a small joint of honey roasted gammon or a friend has said some supermarkets do a posh rolled chicken breast with stuffing and stuff so I will be keeping an eye out for that. Fortunately I have time to plan.
Someone upthread mentioned over large turkeys. The same thing is happening here and for the same reason. There was a bit on the news a few weeks ago about farmers putting their birds on diets so they wouldn’t be so large.
Rusty
@cain: A problem coming to a rural area near you. Places like VT, NH and the Hudson River area of NY have had huge spikes in prices as city folks are buying up everything with a roof. I’m in NH and prices up 20% or more in 7 months. Some are people moving but other is buying a second home for escape, reducing the housing stock for residents. As a result rents are rising, even as low wage jobs suffer. We have to move for my job, and will get screwed but certainly won’t be homeless (thinking of just paying the high rent with a hope it settles down).
Brachiator
@jl:
I’m not sure that this distinction makes a big difference. Original or main source. We are ultimately dealing with a virus and human social behavior, and multiple points of potential infection.
How do we know that employers were pressuring employees to work while sick? How often does this happen? How many people choose to work while sick because they need the money?
Also, do we know whether the employee wore masks and took other steps to prevent spreading the disease? Should we require different kinds of masks for certain workers as opposed to the general public?
Also, in Los Angeles County, there are known cases of employers not reporting information about the number of employees who are or who may be sick (they were supposed to report when the number of cases exceeded 40 or some other number). Here both employers and employees may be complicit.
Again, I am not sure that mask regulations mean much when people do not obey the rules. Voluntary compliance is necessary. In some photos of UK pubs, I see patrons without masks sitting close together, and tables too close to each other. I also see bystanders without masks standing next to pub patrons. I also wonder how long the people have been sitting together.
News stories are not medical journal presentations, but I know what you mean. I also see the media and the public seizing on concepts like “super spreader events” as shorthand when it may not adequately describe what is going on. People just have to be selective about what reporting they read.
I don’t know what can be done to make contact tracing more effective. Things have gone too far, and too many people are not co-operative.
cmorenc
@Nicole:
That’s a mature decision by your 10yo, which is actually in the big picture of things a bigger sacrifice than it first seems – because at his age, he only has a small handful of years left when most households will truly welcome him, rather than begruge his presence as getting a bit too old / too big to still be trick or treating, and starting to regard him as sort of a freerider on treats intended for kids. Yeah, they’ll still give him treats, but the begrudging rather than welcome vibes at many house doors will become apparent.
OTOH, if he has a younger sibling, he get a pass if he is escorting your younger sibling out trick-or-treating, and he’ll still truly welcome at 14+ when he visits doorstops Halloween night.
prostratedragon
“The Chair”
Butter Emails
@Brachiator:
Low wages, lack of sick time, no social safety net, fear of getting fired (as opposed to explicit threat) is pressure to work while sick.
Anne Laurie
@NotMax: Our bloats include the one beloved vegan friend whose famed mac’n'(fake)cheese contains so much garlic, you can tell he’s arrived even before he uncovers the casserole dish. (Sometimes as soon as he walks through the front door!)
Garlic kills germs, at least at that intensity, right?
J R in WV
@Nicole:
You have done a great job parenting and teaching your kid. Just think, he’s more responsible than Donald J Trump, “President” of the US.
But seriously, that is very responsible of him, and you should tell him that many people admire the thought and caring that went into that decision. Also, buy him all the candy!!
. . . . ;~)
J R in WV
@Sister Golden Bear:
The more I absorbed those paintings, the more power I see in them. Amazing work, thanks for sharing it!
frosty
@jl: 10 is a little more like it! 100 sq m is roughly 33×33 ft, which means everyone in my house would have to be on a separate floor!
No One You Know
@Jay: Yours is an inspirational and motivational story. Time for me to get moving.
Betty
@Jay: Thank you!