Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty. ~Thomas Jefferson

A norm that restrains only one side really is not a norm – it is a trap.

Cancel the cowardly Times and Post and set up an equivalent monthly donation to ProPublica.

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

Well, whatever it is, it’s better than being a Republican.

When you’re in more danger from the IDF than from Russian shelling, that’s really bad.

This isn’t Democrats spending madly. This is government catching up.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

These are not very smart people, and things got out of hand.

“Perhaps I should have considered other options.” (head-desk)

The desire to stay informed is directly at odds with the need to not be constantly enraged.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

Republicans choose power over democracy, every day.

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

“In the future, this lab will be a museum. do not touch it.”

Museums are not America’s attic for its racist shit.

Democracy cannot function without a free press.

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

Accountability, motherfuckers.

Fundamental belief of white supremacy: white people are presumed innocent, minorities are presumed guilty.

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.

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Archives for 2020

Daddy ain’t around, probably out committing felonies

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I realize this is kind of bullshit topic but I keep thinking about it…Trump is obviously an asshole who was undoubtedly a shitty father. Ivana hates him, accused him of rape in their divorce proceedings. So…what’s the deal with Eric and Don Jr. and Ivanka? Do you they think he’s an asshole too and just want the inheritance and general free ride or what? I don’t get it. I’m curious if anyone knows anything about the psychology of these kinds of situations.

Speaking of people who suck up to Donald, let’s make vulnerable Republican Senators pay for going along with this sham trial. Give here to a fund split equally between eventual Democratic nominees in Maine, Iowa, North Carolina, Colorado, Georgia, and Arizona.

Goal Thermometer

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You Coulda Said Something Nice About My Profiteroles

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Steve M has a good piece on the hurt feelings excuse that Karen Susan Collins and the rest of the “moderates” (God I hate that word in this context) are going to use for a reason not to call witnesses. Two things:

First, we all have little clichés or old saws that we use to explain human behavior. In this case, I’m going to go with either “Never teach a pig to sing, it wastes your time and it annoys the pig” or “How many psychologists does it take to change a lightbulb? One, but they have to want to change”.

These pigs don’t want to change, and they’re pissed that Schiff, Nadler and the rest are pointing it out while they have to sit quietly and listen.

Second, you often hear people remark that, for a group that uses the expression “fuck your feelings” a lot, these people sure are delicate. That’s true, but there’s a little more to it than simply hypocrisy. It’s a result of the very effective, 30+ year project of “othering” by the conservative media. Long before Fox News, Limbaugh and others worked to make “liberal” an epithet to describe someone who is lesser than the person using the term. These fuckers couldn’t use racial epithets in public anymore, so they found a better one – it doesn’t matter what color you are, or where you came from, if you’re a god damned liberal, then fuck your feelings. But if you’re a conservative, please tread carefully, because you’re dealing with a legitimate human being who is easily damaged by lack of respect.

It would be bad enough if this attitude had been embraced by a third of the population or more, but it’s also been accepted by the mainstream media. There are hundreds of examples of this behavior, but here’s one: how many stories have been written in outlets like the Times that contain concerns that a given Senator or Congressperson is “too right wing”? Find me one, I’m sure they’re rare. That’s because these people are legitimate members of the establishment “Freedom Caucus”, and as such, they have a certain set of deeply held legitimate beliefs. But the same media outlets will shit themselves if they don’t crank out a story about Warren, AOC, Ilhan, etc. that doesn’t contain handwringing about whether any of those women are “too liberal”.

I guess this is all bloody obvious to most of us, but it’s the coronavirus of the mind that is going to kill this country.

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Too many plans, too much confusion?

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CMS recently released the 2018 insurer/plan enrollment report.  I took a look at my former employer, UPMC Health Plan**, as their strategy still leaves me scratching my head.  They offer three distinctive networks in Western Pennsylvania.

The three networks can be quickly defined like this.  Each network is a subset of the network below ##  :

  • Partners: Narrow network centered on UPMC owned facilities; offered in parts of Western PA.
  • Select: Medium network centered on UPMC owned and close ally hospital facilities in Greater Pittsburgh
  • Premium: Broad network that is basically the standard commercial network.   Offered in all of Western PA.

UPMC then attaches a set of five common benefit designs to each network to generate a fifteen unique plans.  People buy the cheap plan most of the time.

Network Silver Enrollment Ever in 2018 Silver Enrollment in Cheapest Plan Lead Plan Market share Least Popular Plan Market share Silver HHI for Network
Partner          20,477          12,489 61% 1%          4,329
Select          13,297            6,817 51% 2%          3,400
Premium          15,825            8,655 55% 1%          3,637
2018 Enrollment Data for UPMC Health Plan

There are a lot of choices, but people are very consistent in buying the cheapest plan for a given network.  There is meaningful difference between networks once you get outside of Pittsburgh city limits so I can see people making distinctive valuations of the networks and choosing from there if they have multiple options.  The least popular plan is only getting 1% or 2% marketshare for a given network.  All three of the network submarkets would be considered very concentrated for silver plans if we were to apply an HHI standard.

I’ve always questioned the spread strategy as the UPMC strategy crushes the spread between the benchmark silver and cheapest silver which makes plans pretty expensive for healthy buyers.  I’ve been spending more time in the behavioral econ space over the past year, and cognitive load and sorting through options is costly and could lead to ineffecienct choice.  There is good evidence (McWilliams et al 2011) that choice overload crushes good choice in Medicare Advantage space, and I suspect this may be the same story going on in the Exchange space.

 

 

 

** Side note, these networks were what I was working on at UPMC Health Plan when I started writing for Balloon-Juice.

## Miniscule and idiosyncratic variations aside

 

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“If right doesn’t matter, we’re lost…”

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Here’s the end of Rep. Schiff’s brilliant closing remarks from last night’s impeachment trial:

At around the same time Schiff was reminding senators of their duty to protect this nation, Donald Trump pinned this bizarre, nonsensical picture to the top of his Twitter feed:

Our politics are cynical and debased and vicious and stupid. Otherwise, a crude, petty, demented crook like Trump would not be president. But as awful as things are, Americans like Adam Schiff are still rising to the occasion. As long as they do, there’s hope for better days.

Schiff’s entire 8-minute summary is here and well worth a listen if you missed it last night.

PS: Don’t forget to call your senators, especially if they’re Republicans: (202) 224-3121.

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On The Road – arrieve – Newfoundland — The Viking Road

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Good morning everyone,

Sorry about Wednesday and Thursday.  I screwed up the Wed post and fell asleep listening to trial stuff Wednesday night. All in all, a poor showing indeed.

Have a great weekend, all!

More from Newfoundland — L’Anse aux Meadows, on the Great Northern Peninsula, is the site of the only confirmed Viking site in North America outside of Greenland. There are remains of eight buildings, from approximately a thousand years ago, though the artifacts suggest it was probably not a permanent settlement and may just have been a base to repair boats.

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On The Road - arrieve - Newfoundland -- The Viking Road 7
NewfoundlandAugust 25, 2019

This is the view from L’Anse aux Meadows. It happened to be a sunny day, but the enthusiastic winds would have made Leif Erikson feel right at home. You can just see Labrador as a blue smudge near the horizon.

Friday Morning Open Thread: Year of the Rat – Gong Hei Fat Choy!

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The Year of the Rat is the first in the Chinese astrological cycle (as Aries is in the Western cycle), so Rat years are supposed to be times of new beginnings and fresh starts. No matter how devoutly rational one’s framework, you have to admit it would be a *great* omen if that were true in 2020!

Speaking of pleasant omens, the official Obama portraits are going on tour. Per the Washington Post:

… The paintings of former president Barack Obama — by Kehinde Wiley — and first lady Michelle Obama — by Amy Sherald — have attracted record crowds to the National Portrait Gallery. Starting in June 2021, the portraits will travel to five cities, giving new audiences a chance to experience them.

“We’re a history museum and an art museum, and they are really great representations of both. This tour is an opportunity for audiences in different parts of the country to witness how portraiture can engage people,” said Kim Sajet, director of the National Portrait Gallery, the museum that commissioned the works. “You can use these portraits as a portal to all sorts of conversations.”

The tour will begin at the Art Institute of Chicago (June 18-Aug. 15, 2021) before moving to the Brooklyn Museum (Aug. 27-Oct. 24, 2021), the Los Angeles County Museum of Art (Nov. 5-Jan. 2, 2022), the High Museum of Art in Atlanta (Jan. 14-March 13, 2022) and the Museum of Fine Arts, Houston (March 25-May 30, 2022).

The cities were selected by the gallery for personal and geographical reasons. The Obamas have deep connections to Chicago, for example, and the works will be there when the former president celebrates his 60th birthday. Sherald grew up in Georgia, and Wiley was born in Los Angeles, so those stops made sense, Sajet said. Wiley’s studio is based in Brooklyn, and its museum has several of his works in its collection.

Thursday’s tour announcement coincides with the publication of “The Obama Portraits,” an illustrated book from the Smithsonian Institution and the Princeton University Press that celebrates the portraits and their influence. Wiley and Sherald are the first African American artists to be selected for the gallery’s portraits of a president or first lady, and their paintings have drawn millions to the gallery since their splashy unveiling in February 2018…

I suspect Chicago is gonna throw quite the party, come August 2021!

I haven’t seen the Obama portraits myself yet, but I’m kinda tempted by a visit to Brooklyn. Cliche as it seems, there is frequently something in original artwork that simply can’t be reproduced, even via today’s technology. I’ve been privileged to see both Whistler’s Arrangement in Grey & Black #1 (at the Clark) and an early print of The Great Wave Off Kanagawa (at the MFA) — two of the more widely reproduced / copied works of our age — and in both cases found new facets that I’d never imagined.

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