BREAKING: Sen. Booker says he is ending his presidential campaign. https://t.co/DhlTLnyqUy
— NBC News (@NBCNews) January 13, 2020
Open Thread
Archives for 2020
Monday Motivation: Age Does Not Matter
Before you say, I can’t…check out this thread.
https://twitter.com/kikimon981/status/1215472779451142144?s=20
First film at 48. First Emmy at 52. First Tony at 59!!!!
— Abigail Disney (@abigaildisney) January 8, 2020
https://twitter.com/artsymaria101/status/1214911008080375808?s=20
https://twitter.com/dfibkitty/status/1215370989942427648?s=20
I’ve been working full time as a commercial illustrator going on 30 yrs but at 49 – I’m making my stride in the world of comics, games and novels. Which has always been my dream 😊👍🏾 pic.twitter.com/hg30FJ9rqR
— Frankie B Washington (@frankiebwash) January 8, 2020
https://twitter.com/KateGrand/status/1214922972244389888?s=20
The entire thread is full of great stories (click here) Just a little good news to start out the week.
Open thread
Did Something Happen in Puerto Rico?
I went to the Post this morning to catch up on Puerto Rico, and there was exactly one story on their front page, and it was this (good) analysis piece:
We’ve heard ceaseless advice about the need to have an emergency backpack, or survival kit, and a family emergency plan. […] Gov. Wanda Vázquez used an official news conference not to address the details of the government’s emergency plan, but to implore citizens to focus on securing their backpacks.
It’s certainly true that we should all take time to reflect on our individual preparation, particularly those of us who require prescription medicine or have special needs. But how much of the emergency response are we expected to bear on our shoulders?
Besides carrying gallons of water, solar lamps, canned food, radios and blankets — already too heavy a burden for the elderly and those with disabilities — what else is expected from us? Do we need to procure cots to sleep on when there’s a shortage of emergency shelters? We stocked up on chain saws to clear the roads after Hurricane Maria; are we now expected to procure heavy machinery to clear our fallen homes? Where does individual responsibility begin, and when does it end?
The Guardian (US Edition) front paged a good story by a reporter on the ground if you want some facts.
If Alabama had suffered 500 earthquakes since Christmas, and had the biggest one in a century a few days ago, I think we might be hearing just a bit more about it.
ACA and Healthcare.gov Enrollment wrap-up
The federal platform, Healthcare.gov released their final open enrollment numbers late last week.
Approximately 8.3 million people selected or were automatically re-enrolled in plans using the HealthCare.gov platform during the 2020 open enrollment period. …
Charles Gaba has a good summary of the meaning behind these numbers:
As a result, HC.gov ends the 2020 Open Enrollment Period down just 1.5% from last year…and it’s actually just 0.5% when you take into account Nevada splitting off onto their own state-based exchange.
It’s also worth noting that in the end, renewing enrollees dropped by 2.2% year over year (139,000 people), but new enrollees actually increased by 0.7% (14,000 people).
I was wrong.
I had thought that enrollment would decline due to pricing pressures. I expected declines in ACA enrollment for two mechanical reasons. First, Nevada transitioned off of Healthcare.gov to their own, state based marketplace for the 2020 open enrollment period. Secondly, several more states have expanded Medicaid or are in their second open enrollment period where on-marketplace enrollment declines are still expected.
I had thought pricing would matter more as the spreads compressed:
In 2019, the median premium spread between the benchmark and the least expensive bronze plan was $164 for a single 40-year-old. In 2020, this difference decreased to $148. For the same 40-year-old, the median premium spread from the least expensive silver plan to the benchmark decreased from $27 in 2019 to $14 in 2020.
The reduced silver spread, while small in dollars, may have a profound impact. At incomes up to 200 percent of poverty, the value of CSR—a free added benefit—exceeds the value of most bronze and gold plan discounts generated by silver loading. …Those discounts appear to have boosted enrollment, offsetting negative factors such as repeal of the individual mandate penalty and reduced federal spending on advertising and outreach. While enrollment at 200–400 percent of poverty has increased slightly from 2017 to 2019 (less than 1 percent), enrollment at 100–200 percent of poverty has fallen 10 percent in the same period.
I’m curious as to what is going on in the market as I thought the pricing environment was slightly worse in 2020 than it was in 2019 and the number of advertised outs was higher. I’m not sure what is going on.
ACA and Healthcare.gov Enrollment wrap-upPost + Comments (12)
Let’s Add Some Facts
A new five-year study of women who had abortions has some interesting conclusions:
Starting one week after their abortions and then twice yearly after that, the women were asked about their feelings. The authors said they wondered about stigma and how the women would reflect on their decisions as time passed.
What they found was a surprise: Over time, all emotions, good and bad, faded.
“A really interesting finding is how the intensity of all emotions is so low,” said Corinne Rocca, lead author of the study and a UCSF associate professor of obstetrics, gynecology and reproductive sciences.
A week after their abortions, about 51 percent of women expressed mostly positive emotions, 17 percent expressed negative emotions and 20 percent said they had none or few. As time went by, the number who felt few or no emotions rose sharply. At the five-year mark, 84 percent reported either primarily positive emotions or none at all, while 6 percent had primarily negative feelings. There was “no evidence” of new negative or positive emotions, the authors said.
Immediately after their abortions, 95 percent of those who agreed to interviews said they had made the right decision. At five years, that percentage increased to 99 percent.
Here are a bunch of other facts from the Guttmacher institute. Two that jump out is that, at the 2014 rate, about 24% of all women will have an abortion by age 45, and in 2017, 39% of all abortions used medication, not surgery.
On The Road – tomtofa – Rainy day in Sligo
Good Morning, everyone,
Let’s get this week started!
We recently went on a three-month tour of a few places in Europe – Budapest (where we have lodgings with my wife’s father and use as a base camp for travels quite often), Ireland (a month of driving and airbnbs), Denmark and Sweden (public transit all the way, and again airbnbs). Economy travel, as much as travel can be – gained lots of insights into various countries’ grocery stores and did a lot of cooking and lunch-packing.
Ireland is one of my favorite places. The people are warm, friendly, and eager to be helpful. An example: we were on a typical countryside one-lane two-way road, and passed a scene I wanted to photograph. I pulled off to make a U turn, and the car behind me also pulled off – “Are you OK, need any help?” Told him thanks but we were OK. Made the U turn, and a walker on the road signaled me to roll down the window – “Take it slow, I’ll walk ahead and let you know when it’s clear around the bend.” We got back to the scene, and I turned into a driveway on the other side of the road. The home owner came out – “Pull up in here next to my car, you don’t want to stop that near the road”. I explained what we were up to – “That’s fine then, but take care and you might want to be be quick, from the look of the clouds it’s going to be bucketing soon”.
These pics are from Sligo, a cool and quirky town in the north of the Republic. A rainy day stroll.
On The Road – tomtofa – Rainy day in SligoPost + Comments (18)
Sligo, IrelandJune 17, 2019
Monday Morning Open Thread: Be of Strong Heart
Important piece that may end up applying to several states. Lot of down sides to the early states, but if it does moves the needle against Trump it’s a big help that the first three states are competitive. https://t.co/Rs8EbpA3HD
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) January 13, 2020
A year of hearing from the Democratic candidates who wish to replace Donald Trump in the White House has had an impact on Iowa voters, it seems. The recent Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll shows only 34% of registered Iowa voters would definitely vote to reelect Trump.
Another 44% is definitely set to vote for someone else, while 12% would consider a candidate other than Trump and 8% weren’t sure either way…
While the Register didn’t run head-to-head general election matchups among likely voters with Trump and a Democrat, the overall numbers here have to be concerning for Trump’s reelection prospects. The results also point to Iowa returning to its purple-state status after Trump’s nine-point victory here in 2016.
The movement would make sense given the barrage of TV ads run by Democrats in Iowa lambasting the President.
Although the Democratic candidates are aiming their message to caucus-goers in their own party, voters of all backgrounds are seeing the TV spots and even many of the online ads. As you can see in Starting Line’s latest caucus TV ad round-up, some candidates’ messaging has been focused mostly just on their own qualifications and policies, but many have taken direct aim at Trump…
Elizabeth Warren is the candidate best-positioned to unite and inspire the broadest coalition to beat Trump. And there’s no candidate working harder to do it.
??: @DMRegister pic.twitter.com/o09AENx710
— Sawyer Hackett (@SawyerHackett) January 12, 2020
And there’s this endorsement from Will Bunch, at the Philadelphia Inquirer:
… My perceptions about what’s wrong with America and how to fix it are different than they were in 2016. I’ve had four years to absorb what Trump’s presidency says about us as a nation — and who has resisted Trump, and why. I’m still committed to the exact same political revolution. But I believe the candidate who will get us there is Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.
I plan to vote for Warren on April 28 for two reasons. One is simple, the other a bit more abstract. For starters, the two-term Massachusetts senator has run the best campaign, pure and simple. Her accidental rallying cry was handed to her by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who blocked Warren’s principled stand against the nomination of unqualified Attorney General Jeff Sessions on the Senate floor and added, “Nevertheless, she persisted.”
Monday Morning Open Thread: Be of Strong HeartPost + Comments (96)