“It’s the best thing ever in the whole world”
The moment families were reunited after first commercial flight in 20 months landed in New York from the UKhttps://t.co/jbXw1ATVRe pic.twitter.com/j0ZXvyQ9xi
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) November 9, 2021
Pfizer and BioNTech requested the FDA to authorize booster doses of their COVID-19 vaccine in all adults, presenting recent data showing the shot would help prevent disease across ages https://t.co/IM7bW3nKGN pic.twitter.com/fcHQnaTGDN
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 10, 2021
Defying recent trends, an increase in recent U.S. COVID-19 cases: pic.twitter.com/hRgsdtW1h7
— Jonathan Lemire (@JonLemire) November 9, 2021
The Biden administration wants the multiple challenges to its workplace COVID-19 vaccination mandate consolidated in a single federal court.
Here’s a look at those legal challenges and what they mean for the rule, which remains on hold. https://t.co/rFtXruNSLl
— The Associated Press (@AP) November 8, 2021
Government employees union presses Biden to extend U.S. vaccine deadline https://t.co/xJaRCRis4C pic.twitter.com/EHvzbahmHC
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 10, 2021
A union representing over 700,000 government employees asked the White House on Tuesday to extend a Nov. 22 deadline for government employees to get vaccinated against COVID-19 to bring it into line with a date set for contractors.
The White House last week extended a deadline for federal contractors to get vaccinated from Dec. 8 to Jan. 4, part of a broader move to make it easier for companies to comply, some of whom face labor shortages over the U.S. holiday season…
Last month, White House coronavirus response coordinator Jeff Zients said the administration’s goal was to get people vaccinated and “not to punish them.”
Agencies will not remove employees from federal service until after a process of education and counseling, he said, adding that the vaccine requirements “will not cause disruptions to government services that people depend on,” Zients said.
Asked about the AFGE letter, a White House Office of Management and Budget spokesperson said the “purpose of this requirement is to protect the federal workforce.”…
Frm @NYT David Leonhardt
"The gap in #COVID19 death toll betwn red & blue America has grown faster over the past month than at any previous point: 25 of every 100,000 residents of heavily #Trump counties died from Covid, >3Xs higher than the rate in heavily #Biden counties." pic.twitter.com/jNoDzhpVK1— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) November 9, 2021
Misinformation is arguably the biggest obstacle in the #Covid pandemic. Nearly 4 in 10 people think the U.S. gov't is exaggerating the number of Covid deaths. Overall, 8 in 10 cling to at least one falsehood. https://t.co/jfSs1tBKI7
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) November 9, 2021
Even though the U.S. ended a ban on travelers entering the nation, it could still take years for travel to recover. Half the world isn’t vaccinated, which the U.S. now requires of entering foreigners. For the vaccinated, there are delays getting visas. https://t.co/OjFGvM5hzi
— The Associated Press (@AP) November 9, 2021
======
Why are rich countries still hogging the lion's share of Covid vaccines? Half the world has gotten a Covid shot. Yet the vaccination rate in some countries—especially on the African continent—is less than 10% https://t.co/gnv4E53Zn4
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) November 10, 2021
China is doubling down on its zero-tolerance COVID-containment strategy, setting it increasingly apart as many countries shift to trying to live with the virus. https://t.co/HCho8qC5jt
— The Associated Press (@AP) November 10, 2021
China's southwestern city of Chengdu said it had conducted 30,000 COVID-19 tests on visitors at a mega entertainment center and rounded up those who tried to flee the site, in the second mass screening at a large venue in days https://t.co/35eNa0NsmQ pic.twitter.com/dmkxiRGs8w
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 10, 2021
The Shanghai Marathon has been postponed indefinitely, said the organizers of the run in a post on their website, amid rising COVID-19 cases in China https://t.co/T1yo2EoZ6g pic.twitter.com/1JfWzFn1V6
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 10, 2021
1 Billion doses: India’s coronavirus crisis was killing thousands daily 7 months ago. Now as the nation celebrates the injection of its 1 billionth vaccine dose, experts are sounding a new warning: vaccinations are slowing down from 42k a day to only 12k https://t.co/dTKKyiJD2u pic.twitter.com/ORwKsLij4I
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) November 10, 2021
S.Korea urges COVID-19 booster shots, as severe cases hit record https://t.co/ULeMGY7vf2 pic.twitter.com/lLDAB8Zfnb
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 10, 2021
Vietnam approves India's COVID-19 vaccine Covaxin https://t.co/kN7Vd0kzZa pic.twitter.com/4gt41gV1ZD
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 10, 2021
Aucklanders return to malls as New Zealand eases lockdown in biggest city https://t.co/ek0UEVtVOC pic.twitter.com/u5MILg0jSD
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 10, 2021
⚡️ Russia on Wednesday confirmed 38,058 Covid-19 infections and a new pandemic record of 1,239 deaths https://t.co/RSkij1QMKt
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) November 10, 2021
Russia become the world leader in coronavirus deaths last week for the first time since the start of the pandemichttps://t.co/Bh05drQYqz
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) November 10, 2021
The morgue in Romania’s main hospital has no space for the dead. Bodies of COVID-19 victims, wrapped in black plastic bags, line a hallway of the hospital in Bucharest. Experts have blamed the soaring deaths on the low vaccination rate. https://t.co/gWw51UJjrn
— The Associated Press (@AP) November 9, 2021
Czechs record highest daily tally of COVID-19 cases since March https://t.co/bszoLiYrOy pic.twitter.com/urXT38ZH3R
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 10, 2021
Dutch hospitals urge new measures as COVID-19 cases near record https://t.co/7ToYN5MVr1 pic.twitter.com/mTgXqjfAPn
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 9, 2021
France extends COVID-19 booster shots, requires them for health pass https://t.co/eBOH5tNVdI pic.twitter.com/CAHdjSy1on
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 10, 2021
======
The randomized trial of the Pfizer vaccine for children age 5-11 is published @NEJM today. The data indicate very high efficacy (91%, 95% CI 68,98)) a strong immune response and absence of any serious side effects among 2,268 participants https://t.co/UevcaOWdha pic.twitter.com/7gRgrrMn6c
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) November 9, 2021
Nearly 5 million #SARSCoV2 genomes have been sequenced & submitted to @GISAID — and almost 100% of recent samples are #DeltaVariant, worldwide.https://t.co/kOxRo7phCZ
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) November 9, 2021
======
Unvaccinated Texans 40 times as likely to die of covid as those fully vaccinated in 2021, study says https://t.co/scYrFQprn9
— Sarah Posner (@sarahposner) November 9, 2021
California’s progress against #COVID19 has reversed.
“It’s not subtle, that’s for sure. Cases are up over the past 3 wks. We were down to as low as 5,000 new cases/day. Now we’re up to 6,000 cases/day. Hospitalizations are up about 4% over 2 wks.” https://t.co/DsvN2DLiwN— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) November 9, 2021
North Dakota:
And: "A North Dakota lawmaker and organizer of a rally against vaccine mandates pulled out of the event after contracting COVID-19." https://t.co/L3JLu9SCbn
— Jay Ulfelder (@JayUlfelder) November 9, 2021
Nurses were wearing goddamn trash bags https://t.co/ssJ2eN3eTL
— zeddy (@Zeddary) November 9, 2021
Trump took a victory lap over Russia donating a few ventilators that no hospital would touch because they had a tendency to set patients on fucking fire.
— zeddy (@Zeddary) November 9, 2021
Baud
Misleading headline. The law says they have to be consolidated.
YY_Sima Qian
On 11/9 China reported 39 new domestic confirmed (6 previously asymptomatic) & 25 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case. 22 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 62 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the region.
At Xi’an in Shaanxi Province 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 10 active domestic confirmed cases in the city.
Ningxia “Autonomous” Region did not report any new domestic positive cases. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 39 active domestic confirmed cases in the region.
Gansu Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case. 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 109 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Hebei Province reported 5 new domestic confirmed cases. There currently are 117 active confirmed & 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
At Hunan Province there currently are 4 active domestic confirmed (at Changsha) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Zhuzhou) cases remaining in the province.
At Zunyi in Guizhou Province 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 3 active domestic confirmed cases (2 moderate & 1 serious) remaining in the city. 2 residential compounds remain at Medium Risk.
Beijing Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 41 active domestic confirmed cases in the city. 1 community remains at High Risk. 1 community has been re-designated as Low Risk. 1 community remains at Medium Risk.
At Rizhao in Shandong Province there currently are 14 active domestic confirmed & 6 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 residential compound is currently at Medium Risk.
Sichuan Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed case. There currently are 25 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Chongqing Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 6 active domestic confirmed & 4 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining in the city. 2 residential compounds & 1 office building are currently at Medium Risk.
At Changzhou in Jiangsu Province there currently are 3 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 3 residential compounds are currently at Medium Risk.
Qinghai Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 12 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.
Heilongjiang Province reported 4 new domestic confirmed cases. 4 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 250 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Shangrao in Jiangxi Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed (1 mild & 1 moderate) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 14 active domestic confirmed & 31 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 residential compound has been elevated to Medium Risk. 1 township & 2 residential compounds are currently Medium Risk.
At Zhejiang Province there currently are 1 active domestic confirmed (at Jiaxing) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Hangzhou) cases remaining.
Henan Province reported 8 new domestic confirmed (6 previously asymptomatic) & 5 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 45 active domestic confirmed & 15 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Dalian in Liaoning Province reported 17 new domestic confirmed (1 mild & 4 moderate) & 15 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 28 traced close contacts & 4 from mass screening. There currently are 62 active domestic confirmed & 70 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 community, 4 residential compounds, 4 residential buildings & 4 villages are currently at Medium Risk.
Dehong Prefecture in Yunnan Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases (all at Ruili, all from persons in restricted movement zones). 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 20 active domestic confirmed & 36 active domestic asymptomatic cases at the prefecture. 1 zone & 1 village at Ruili is currently at Medium Risk.
Imported Cases
On 11/9, China reported 15 new imported confirmed cases (2 previously asymptomatic), 14 imported asymptomatic cases, 1 imported suspect case:
Overall in China, 54 confirmed cases recovered (20 imported), 9 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (8 imported) & 8 were reclassified as confirmed cases (2 imported), & 2,131 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 1,222 active confirmed cases in the country (388 imported), 21 in serious condition (3 imported), 529 active asymptomatic cases (354 imported), 2 suspect case (all imported). 49,868 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 11/9, 2,346.831M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 8.338M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 11/10, Hong Kong reported 5 new positive cases, all imported (3 cargo flight crew & 1 each coming from Italy & the Philippines).
Betty
One might think the federal workers would prefer to be vaccinated before the Christmas holiday, but whatever!
Bruce K in ATH-GR
Greece: the numbers are climbing. Monday’s record for new cases, 7691 (according to Worldometer) was eclipsed by Tuesday’s number of new cases, 8613.
My two go-to sources, the newspaper Kathimerini and the Worldometer aggregator, sometimes differ on the precise numbers, but not on the trend: new cases are rising, and fast. Kathimerini reports that the peak for this wave may be over nine thousand or up to eleven thousand, and we’re still several weeks from seeing that peak.
Personal notes: my entire office was called in specifically to get PCR tested at company expense; we’re 100% vaccinated, even though my US-delivered vaccination isn’t registered in the Greek healthcare system (I believe that makes me the only “unvaccinated” person on staff, bringing the official percentage down to 98-point-some-odd percent). The office has been good about accepting my CDC card as proof of vaccination; heck, they authorized time off and remote working from another continent so I could get the vaccine when I wasn’t yet eligible under the Greek system (and so I could help my parents prepare for their move to Greece for retirement).
The office’s consulting physician came through on advice about boosters: he recommended that I get the J&J shot, which will medically serve as a booster while bureaucratically getting me into the vaccinated category in Greece and the EU. I’m due for my shot a week from today, eight minutes past noon.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reports 6,243 new Covid-19 cases today in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 2,522,498 cases. It also reports 78 deaths as of midnight, for an adjusted cumulative total of 29,427 deaths – 1.17% of the cumulative reported total, 1.20% of resolved cases.
Based on cases reported yesterday, Malaysia’s nationwide Rt is at 0.96.
504 confirmed cases are in ICU, 196 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 5,068 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 2,430,122 patients recovered – 96.34% of the cumulative reported total.
Seven new clusters were reported today, for a cumulative total of 5,824 clusters. 300 clusters are currently active; 5,524 clusters are now inactive.
6,219 new cases today are local infections. 24 new cases today are imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 116,642 doses of vaccine on 9th November: 7,877 first doses, 30,700 second doses, and 78,065 booster doses. As of midnight, the cumulative total is 50,656,181 doses administered: 25,550,899 first doses, 24,642,379 second doses, and 644,664 booster doses. 78.3% of the population have received their first dose, while 75.5% are now fully vaccinated.
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
The Monroe County website says 296 new cases yesterday, the NYSDOH says 253.
New Deal democrat
The tweets above about cases “defying recent [declining] trends” are late. The declining trend in US cases stopped 14 days ago, and we are up about 5% since. There are now signs that even the Deep South is bottoming out. Deaths also now look like they may have bottomed at a little over 1100.
The only good thing, as I noted yesterday, is that the upturn is muted so far, and definitely pales in comparison to one year ago. There are just a lot fewer people left to infect between vaccinations and the recent Delta wave.
I still wish the US had some decent current seroprevalence data, so that we had a good idea how many people had no resistance, e.g., is it 50% or is it 10%? We don’t have a clue.
NotMax
@Betty
Haven’t you heard? Christmas is stuck offshore and not expected to arrive until maybe February.
//
Robert Sneddon
@Bruce K in ATH-GR:
There doesn’t seem to be any evidence regarding “overdosing” of vaccines causing problems. I’ve seen one anecdotal report of someone who had a bad reaction to getting both Moderna doses on the same day “to save time later” but that was rather a special case. Getting an extra vaccination some months after the original vaccination for a reason like international differences in record-keeping is probably OK.
Mixing different vaccines over a period of several months doesn’t seem to have any downsides. Wishful thinking says it might even be more effective but I’ve not seen any real reports or studies on whether this is true.
I received the AstraZeneca adenovirus vaccine early this year but the booster I got a couple of weeks ago was a half-dose of the Moderna mRNA vaccine. This is standard NHS practice as all booster shots in the UK are mRNA vaccines regardless of the original vaccination type.
rikyrah
Haven’t decided what I’m going have for breakfast ?
Johnathan S. Perkins (@JohnathanPerk) tweeted at 6:45 PM on Tue, Nov 09, 2021:
Reading about a San Francisco cop, Jack Nyce, 46, who was among the 41 officers put on leave for refusing SF’s Nov. 1st vaccine requirement.
He tested positive for covid Tuesday 11/2. His symptoms got so severe, his wife called EMTs to rush him to the hospital. He died Saturday.
(https://twitter.com/JohnathanPerk/status/1458234348256256003?t=xztTiiqQYfDjIcc-oYgksw&s=03)
debbie
@rikyrah:
Boy, he showed them! ?
Mustang Bobby
Here in Miami:
I still have my masks.
Ken
The Mouth of Sauron might not be lying. I find it quite plausible that absolutely no one in the Trump White House heard of the supply chain problems last year. They certainly wouldn’t have been talking about them in front of TFG, lest someone have to break out the ice cream and show tunes.
NotMax
@rikyrah
Sausage, in honor of the infrastructure bill?
:)
Cermet
That death rates in Tex-ass are forty times higher for unvaccinated is absolutely ludicrous; the normal rate is about three times – what makes Tex-ass so deadly for not being vaccinated?
OzarkHillbilly
@Cermet: Tex-ass dumb-ass. It’s a special brand of dumb-ass.
Ken
@Cermet: Texas hasn’t done the Medicaid expansion. Combine that with COVID denialism, and maybe people aren’t getting to a doctor until too late?
sdhays
@Cermet: “Everything is bigger in Texass”.
gbbalto
@Cermet: The WaPo article says they were counting deaths from Jan 15 to Oct 1, so starting before many had access to the vaccines. Some bad math there.
Cermet
@OzarkHillbilly: Certainly its in their name – lol
gbbalto makes a good point; delaying treatment might be the cause. Not believing in covid when very sick and refusing to seek med help is a very likely cause, I’d guess.
lowtechcyclist
@Cermet: Per this tweet that was in yesterday’s thread, U.S. Covid hospitalizations are running at about a 16-17x higher rate among the unvaccinated than the fully vaccinated. I’d expect deaths to not be wildly different.
Texas’ difference is a bit more extreme, but it’s probably 40x v. 16x, not 40x v. 3x.
Scout211
The NFL has fined the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers. So I guess there were *some* consequences.
lowtechcyclist
@gbbalto:
Not really. Here’s the original StatNews piece. They compare the difference in the vaxxed and unvaxxed rates over time, starting in January. The difference was substantial through the period, but it really took off starting in July.
My theory? By some point in June, practically everyone who’d wanted to get vaxxed, had gotten vaxxed. So when July and Delta come around, you no longer have a whole bunch of unvaxxed people who are minimizing situations where they’re around strangers, and wearing masks and practicing social distancing when they are, thereby holding down the unvaxxed hospitalization rate at least somewhat. The vast majority of the remaining unvaxxed have gone back to ‘normal’ life and aren’t doing a damn thing to protect themselves.
The rates would have diverged about then anyway, but then Delta comes along and exacerbates even that.
lowtechcyclist
@Scout211: I don’t know what Rodgers gets paid, but my WAG would be high seven or low eight figures. A $14K fine would be change between the sofa cushions to him.
For basically lying to his teammates about his vaccination status, being around them while being a plague rat and not owning up to it, he should get his ass kicked out of the NFL.
Or the NFL is saying, ‘this isn’t a serious matter, unlike that guy who took a knee. Now that was serious.’
Peale
@lowtechcyclist: if that’s the fine that was agreed to for violating protocols, then that’s the fine they should adhere to. Rogers isn’t being fined for being unvaccinated. Doing punishments outside of that schedule would invite a lawsuit. And one of the last things I want from this is an excuse for Aaron Rogers to be in the news self-persecuting himself while promoting homeopathy.
Fair EconomistH
@New Deal democrat:
We were already at 83.3% with resistance (so only 16.7% without) back in May. This whole Delta wave occurred in a population that already had some degree of immunity; but “some degree” is not enough with this disease; it has to be fresh immunity.
Herd immunity is another big lie.
I’ll be due for a 6 mo booster in December. Hoping the Pfizer “boosters for all” approval will allow one for this member of House Moderna. If not maybe I’ll lie a little about my weight as I’m technically just under being overweight.
Fair EconomistH
@Robert Sneddon:
The cross-boosting study that the FDA used to OK cross-boosting did actually measure that Moderna patients got more of an antibody boost from Pfizer and Pfizer patients got more from Moderna. I didn’t read the paper to see if the effect was statistically significant. I was a little surprised because I figured those two would be too similar for a cross-boosting effect.
Fair Economist
Thanks for the quick rescue from moderation I got for accidentally adding that H to my nym.
Robert Sneddon
@Fair EconomistH: As an interested layman (aka “disaster junkie”) I understand that the two mRNA vaccines in common use (Moderna and Pfizer) cause the body’s cells to produce dissimilar fake versions of the ACE-2 receptor spike protein. Both versions of the fake spikes are close enough to actual SARS-nCoV-2 spike proteins for a very good immune reaction to kick off which is the Big Win for the vaccines in combatting this disease.
Cross-dosing with a different vaccine when boosters are required suggests the booster will induce the production of subtly different spike proteins to the first vaccine, giving the immune system something slightly different to watch out for. We know for sure the COVID-19 virus is mutating and changing over time hence the currently widespread Delta variant and possible successors, but the coronavirus spike proteins can’t change radically and still work as ACE-2 receptors. Giving the body’s immune system some variant models of what to look for is probably a good thing, but that’s still guesswork and supposition, at least on my part.
dr. bloor
Got my Moderna booster yesterday. At the moment, I’m reminding myself that feeling like I’m going to die is preferable to actually dying.
Sloane Ranger
Tuesday, the UK had 33,117 new cases. This is a reduction in the moving 7-day average of 14.8%. New cases by nation,
England – 27,872 (up 2893)
Northern Ireland – 1228 (up 200)
Scotland – 2233 (up 221)
Wales – 1784 (down 2519 but Monday’s figures included a lot of weekend cases that weren’t previously reported.
Deaths – There were 262 deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported yesterday but there is an element of catch up from the weekend in this figure. The rolling 7-day average is up by 2.6%. 230 deaths were in England, 7 in Northern Ireland, 20 in Scotland and 5 in Wales.
Testing – 920,068 tests took place on Monday. This is an increase of 1.6% in the rolling 7-day average. The PCR testing capacity reported by labs on that date was 861,462.
Hospitalisations – There were 8900 people in hospital and 1025 people on ventilators on Monday. The rolling 7-day average for hospital admissions as of 5 November was down by 7.8%.
Vaccinations – As of Monday, 50,296,294 people had had 1 shot of a vaccine, 45,873,038 had had 2 and 10,580,122 had had a 3rd shot/booster. This means that, as of that day, 87.5% of all UK residents aged 12+ have had 1 shot, 79.8% had had 2 and 18.4% had had a 3rd shot/booster.
I am pleased to report that I have successfully booked my booster appointment. As I only had my 2nd shot on 28th May, I have to wait for 6 months before becoming eligible for the booster under English rules, so I have booked for 2.15pm on 30th November. Yeah!
topclimber
@Robert Sneddon: Just you wait until Covid mutates in a way that attaches it to the mrna sequences in all these new-fangled vaccines. Aided and abetted by hackers plugging into the Bill Gates microchip.
Talk about a disaster! Only the anti-vaxxed will have a chance.
ETA: for Posterity.
New Deal democrat
@Fair EconomistH: I highlighted that blood donor survey here when it first got reported. But subsequent estimates from other sources have not borne that number out, instead coming in at levels equivalent to 2* to 2.4* the “official” confirmed case rate – which means about 40% of the US population has antibodies due to prior infection.
Obviously 40% and 90% seroprevalence make a huge difference in terms of the remaining susceptible population. Hence my continuing complaint.
Fair Economist
@New Deal democrat:That’s not significantly in conflict with the cited study, because the cited study includes *both* infection-acquired and vaccine-induced immunity. 40% infection-acquired and 70% vaccine-acquired gets you to 82% immunity overall, assuming random assortment.
New Deal democrat
@Fair Economist:
>>”the cited study includes *both* infection-acquired and vaccine-induced immunity.”
I realized that as soon as I hit “post,” but I figured I didn’t need to edit it because people were capable of figuring it out on their own.
>>”40% infection-acquired and 70% vaccine-acquired gets you to 82% immunity overall, assuming random assortment.”
OK apparently not. The 90% number in the blood donation study was from May, when vaccination was at about 40%, and total confirmed US cases were at about 10% (so even 2.4* would be 24%. 24% of the remaining 60% is 14%. 14%+40%=54%.
54% and 90% are very different.
Of course, the situation is different now. But there hasn’t been any new data from the blood banks, and as I said, estimates from other sources haven’t confirmed their number.
Robert Sneddon
@topclimber: I have become somewhat irritated by the various supposedly over-the-top sarcastic posts about 5G chips and the like as they are amplifying a signal that society really really doesn’t benefit from. Sure, you know what you just wrote as a “joke” isn’t true and you think it droll and risible and you hope your friends will snigger along with you but three weeks later someone like Tucker Carlson reveals this startling discovery to the world and you think “I wonder where that crazy idea came from?” It then becomes something else to distract from rational decision-making at school board meetings and mummy-Facebook groups, another part of the Gish Gallop of vaccine rejection.
Bah, humbug.
Ksmiami
@Cermet: people here socialize like crazy. It’s why as a vaccinated boostered person I’m still avoiding them
jonas
Ugh. So my hopes that my booster Monday wouldn’t give me the same effects as the main shot proved to be in vain. Still got the aches, shivers, flu-like symptoms all yesterday afternoon and evening. A bit better this morning, but still kind of achy. I guess it’s a sign my immune system is alive and kicking, but it still sucks.
UncleEbeneezer
SFChronicle article is behind a paywall. Can anyone summarize what it says about CA?
New Deal democrat
@Fair Economist: P.S.: My reply was kinda snarky, but I didn’t intend for it to be in a mean way. Sorry.
StringOnAStick
Got my booster on Friday, felt a little crappy yesterday but able to do some less frenzied that usual yard work, so that’s much better than I felt after each of the first two shots. I went to bed an hour early and I still feel like gravity has been dialed up a bit, but I’ll be out there with a shovel and steely determination in my eyes today. There’s a only a few more warm days left so gotta get after it.
RaflW
Oh, Kellyanne managed to do a (lie filled) TV hit after her pounding hangover had mellowed but before her first day drink? How charming.
She is reason #1 that I’ve never, ever given a dime to the Lincoln Project. I don’t trust her husband for a nanosecond.
smith
@New Deal democrat: This bloodbank study appears to go through August, so it captures a good deal of the Delta surge.
RaflW
So I’m looking at a place like Summit Co. Colorado (because I’m going there for 8 nights in Dec) and the local population is said to be closing in on 77% fully vaccinated. I’d expect that to keep climbing as the residents are not loony and will likely be getting their 5-11 y.o.s jabbed asap.
And yet. The case rate is a t 46 per 100k, and R is 1.06. Hospitalization is low (though pre-vax, cases were transferred to Denver quite a bit because of the altitude and the smallish hospital. Dunno if that’s still the case if a vax’d person is sick enough to check in at the ER there?).
I’m just trying to grock what’s going on. Seems like breakthroughs? Ski season is just barely started, I don’t think many out of towners (other than Denver hardcore daytripping to Abasin, and that wouldn’t show up in the local data) are up vacationing yet.
I just got boosted, and will probably follow more of last winter’s protocols than the ski areas will (alas), but I’d sure like to not feel anxious all the dang time. I know I can worry less than last winter when we were doing curbside groceries and basically being hermits when not on the open, airy slopes.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Ken: I with you that the Trump admin had no idea that Supply Chain’s even existed. There were quite a few articles about how the Trump admins effort get protective gear moving was bungled because they all had no clue how things are made or distributed.
Fair Economist
@New Deal democrat: NP, not in the least objectionable. But I think part of the reason seroprevalence studies are getting scarce on the ground is that that they aren’t useful anymore. In terms of trying to detect what percentage of the population has had it, vaccination now swamps infections, and there are so many confounders with the vaccinated being generally more careful that you can’t get a meaningful estimate of past infection anymore. In terms of resistance, we now know that past infection or vaccination provides considerably less than full protection vs. reinfection – for example, J&J after 6 months provides almost no protection vs. infection, although still a decent amount vs. serious outcome (big caveat coming below). Just knowing the presence of *some* immunity isn’t enough; we need to know the *quality*, and it’s not at all clear how we can measure it. IgG antibody titers are only one piece; others like secreted antibody and T cell activity are much harder to measure; and in any case we have only a rough idea of how all those pieces fit together to give a % resistance to infection.
The big caveat to saying J&J is no longer providing much protection vs. non-hospitalized infection is that the “control” group is *not* naive anymore; maybe 50% of them have actually had COVID although that number isn’t clear. Maybe considerably higher since the unvaxxed tend to be less careful and also include a lot of people like my sister in law who had it and think they don’t *need* vaccination. So more precisely J&J is comparable protection vs infection and superior for hospitalization vs. a 50% or higher chance of having had prior COVID. But in general the effectiveness of vaccination via these crude comparisons will artifactually decrease over time because the control group will have a higher and higher chance of prior infection.
Timing also affects these vaccinated vs. unvaccinated comparisons. The effectiveness of vaccination vs. prior infection would have been somewhat inflated in the summer as the vaccinated mostly had received it relatively recently (median around April, I’d guess) while the prior infected had a median infection around December. Now the vaccinations are aging while we’ve had a fresh bolus of infected cases from the Delta wave, which overwhelmingly infected the unvaccinated even if there were some breakthroughs. So now crude comparisons might be underestimating vaccine benefit.
jonas
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Kellyanne’s claim is utter bullshit. They knew perfectly well there were supply chain issues because 1. Trump put genius boy Jared in charge of managing it and 2. they intentionally tried to exploit/create shortages to make blue state governors look bad. He refused on multiple occasions to use the defense production act. ‘They knew exactly what they were doing.
smith
@Fair Economist: The seroprevalence studies I’ve seen would also have a significant selection bias, especially the blood bank studies. The type of person who donates blood is probably different in many ways from the random person on the street, including, I’d guess, being more likely to be vaccinated.
This is borne out by looking at commercial lab studies, where they look at samples of blood taken for non-covid reasons. CDC also posts the results from one of these, that goes up to July, and seroprevalence looks much lower than in the blood bank study. Even this will be subject to selection bias, however, since those samples were taken for a reason, in many cases because the person has a health problem. It also will not reach people who have less access to health care.
Peale
@smith: Yeah. Something tells me in this current environment, funding a study to draw blood from a random cross section of the population will be met with quite a bit of backlash.
Peale
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I believe that they outright went with piracy at one point. Confiscating PPE from a cargo plane that the governor of Massachusetts flew in from China to distributed to frontliners. So when you’re pirates, there are no supply chain issues. The stuff just falls off a truck, so to speak.
Which honestly might be how Biden could solve the supply chain issue. Just issue letters of Marque that any ships found in US waters flying a foreign flag (which they all do!) are fair game for pilfering.
MattF
Emerald Robinson, (former) Newsmax White House correspondent, has been permanently banned from Twitter and taken off the air by Newsmax for spreading bizarre COVID misinformation.
smith
@Peale: Amusing idea, but isn’t a big part of the problem the hangups in getting the ships unloaded once they get here? And that problem is due in part to labor shortages? Guess we need to reinstitute press gangs.
New Deal democrat
@smith:
To follow up on the CDC link, it appears from the links in that estimate that the last *actual* data was from May. The rest appears to be an extrapolated estimate.
If you click on the months sequentially, and also examine the “infection induced” seroprevalence, that only increases from 12% last December to 22% in August. Meanwhile the “combined” seroprevalence jumps from 12% to 90% in August, meaning 68% had been vaccinated (and perhaps also had a prior infection). But in August only 60% of the population had had even one shot. Notice this also means 3/4’s of their unvaccinated donors showed prior infection! Sorry, but no way that is accurate.
evodevo
@dr. bloor:
Yeah, me too…both the second dose and the booster caused my arthritis to go wild – I couldn’t even move this AM. Took a Tylenol around noon, and am moving better. Hubby had almost no reaction at all to his…
J R in WV
@Scout211:
So, if I still remember how to divide with a calculator, Rodgers was fined 0.000150456 of his latest guaranteed salary… or .0150456% — that would be like you or me paying a $25 parking ticket. Fuck that guy… if other members of the team get sick, maybe they can get a share of his absurdly high paycheck.